SportsRatings is ranking all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August until the season begins. These rankings are meant to reflect how good the teams might be in 2008 without taking schedule into account.
Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for each team, and two projected records are given: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and another cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty in the predictions. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. (Schedule listings adapted from James Howell's site)
This installment covers teams from #31 to #35. To see the full list, click here.
31. Wisconsin Badgers (pre-season AP #13, USA-coaches #12) |
2007 Results: Record: 9-4 Bowl: lost to Tennessee 21-17 (Outback) Poll finish: #24 AP #21 USA
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #37 Success: #33 Combined: #37
Wisconsin is better this year, but they were overrated last season. They'll still fight Michigan for 3rd place in the Big Ten.
Offense (8 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #43 Adj. Rush Yards: #16 Adj. Pass Yards: #80
Tyler Donovan was a decent quarterback and led the team well in a year when P.J. Hill was slowed by injuries. With Donovan gone and the loss of backup RB Lance Smith, there is more on Hill's shoulders. Last year he had 1,212 yards and 14 TDs; since the offensive line loses just one starter, Hill should have a monster year if he can stay healthy. Whoever the new QB is (and currently Kansas State transfer Allan Evridge leads the QB race, as he had starting experience there) he can count on tight end Travis Beckum as a reliable target. Beckum was a Mackey award finalist last year and had almost 1,000 receiving yards (6 TDs). But look for the Badgers to heavily emphasize the run once again.
Defense (9 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #40 Adj. Rush Def: #24 Adj. Pass Def: #65
Wisconsin returns three starters in each area of their 4-3 defense. Matt Shaughnessy (5 sacks), Jason Chapman, and Mike Newkirk on the front four; Jonathan Casillas (#1 tackler on the team), DeAndre Levy (#2 tackler), and Elijah Hodge (#3) at linebacker; and Shane Carter (7 interceptions), Allen Langford, and Aubrey Pleasant in the secondary. While the defense will miss NFL draftees Nick Hayden and Jack Ikegwuonu (15 pass breakups!), the defense is very solid, returning the top 5 tacklers and 8 of the top 9. Sophomore Aaron Henry, starter at cornerback, will miss at least the first three games after knee surgery.
Kicking Game (0 RS): 4-year punter Ken DeBauche and excellent kicker Taylor Mehlhaff are gone; true freshman Brad Nortman may take over punting, while redshirt frosh Philip Welch is battling walk-on Matt Fischer for the placekicking slot.
Recruiting: The transition from Barry Alvarez to Bret Bielema was a smooth one two years ago, and recruiting has held steady, with Wisconsin's latest classes in the top 40. Some of the most important newcomers this season are those vying for kicker and punter, though true freshman Curt Phillips suddenly becomes The Man if Evridge goes down.
Wisconsin 2008 schedule & forecast |
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8/30 | Sat | vs. | Akron | 76% | W | |||
9/6 | Sat | vs. | Marshall | 72% | W | |||
9/13 | Sat | @ | Fresno State | 48% | L | |||
9/27 | Sat | @ | *Michigan | 47% | L | |||
10/4 | Sat | vs. | *Ohio State | 27% | L | |||
10/11 | Sat | vs. | *Penn State | 49% | L | |||
10/18 | Sat | @ | *Iowa | 54% | W | |||
10/25 | Sat | vs. | *Illinois | 56% | W | |||
11/1 | Sat | @ | *Michigan State | 49% | L | |||
11/8 | Sat | @ | *Indiana | 57% | W | |||
11/15 | Sat | vs. | *Minnesota | 70% | W | |||
11/22 | Sat | vs. | Cal Poly-SLO | 74% | W | |||
Favored: 7-5 Projected: 7-5 |
2008 Season Outlook Wisconsin's seasons are pretty boring, really. They win lots of games, but can be counted on to not be in the national title hunt, often by losing to another team that's in the hunt. Any other school that won this much would be talked about as a national title contenders, but Wisconsin doesn't seem to have the killer instinct to push it over the top. Either that, or their schedule is considered weak, as was the case last year. The Badgers were 5-0, with two narrow Big Ten wins and three unconvincing defeats of cupcakes. Wisconsin ended up losing to Illinois, Penn State, and Ohio State, only beating Michigan out of the top Big Ten teams. They played Tennessee close but came up short in their bowl game in Florida, where the Wisconsin team should make January 1st reservations in advance to save money.
Though that might not be a great idea this season. Wisconsin's schedule is full of close games, almost all of which I have them losing. Playing at Fresno and at Michigan, then facing tough Penn State at home and Michigan State on the road gives them four losses, and Ohio State is the only game they're sure to lose. Of course, it means that an 11-1 season is not out of the question. In fact, that would be typical of Wisconsin to manage to have an unimpressive 11-1 year, beating foes by a field goal here and there, while dispatching teams like Akron to start the year and Cal Poly to end it. Conversely there are only four certain wins on the list; but I don't see Wisconsin having a losing season. 7-5 is probably a floor for this team, with a solid defense and strong offensive line. If Hill goes nuts, they'll push toward 11-1. If he's injured again, and/or no competent QB is uncovered, 7-5 it is, and maybe this time, the Alamo Bowl for a change.
32. California Golden Bears |
2007 Results: Record: 7-6 Bowl: Beat Air Force (Armed Services Bowl) Poll finish: #32 USA
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #30 Success: #31 Combined: #29
The Bears were riding high early and fell apart late. Are they back on track?
Offense (4 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #30 Adj. Rush Yards: #20 Adj. Pass Yards: #51
Nate Longshore sucks, and Kevin Riley biffed it. That's one way to look at the Bear QBs. The other is more fair: Longshore was good until he was injured, and after Riley played very well after his one big mistake. Cal was 5-0 and #2 in the nation under Longshore when he hurt his ankle; freshman Riley stepped in and ran the ball instead of positioning for a tying field goal, losing the Oregon State game. After these events, Longshore was hobbled but Riley did a good job, especially in the bowl game. Both are back and battling for starter status: Longshore started most games and had 2,580 yards, 60%, 16 TDs and 13 INTs; Riley had 563 yards, 64%, 5 TDs, 1 INT. Whoever wins (Riley was named starter, for now) will be throwing to a completely new receiver corps after losing the likes of DeSean Jackson and Lavelle Hawkins (6 TD each). Just as importantly, 1,500 yard rusher Justin Forsett (15 TDs) is gone. But Cal always seems to find great backs, and backup Jahvid Best had a 7.6 yard average and 2 TDs on 29 carries last year. The offensive line returns three starters including All-American candidate Alex Mack.
Defense (8 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #44 Adj. Rush Def: #33 Adj. Pass Def: #32
The defense will be strong in Berkeley this season. The three of the front four are back, with another starter, Rulon Davis, having missed most of '07; since Cal is switching to a 3-4, the front line has extra depth. Three starting linebackers return: Zack Follett (5.5 sacks last year), and Worrell Williams and Anthony Felder, both of whom topped 100 tackles last season. The secondary loses leading tackler Thomas DeCloud but corner Syd'Quan Thompson (10 pass break-ups) returns.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Jordan Kay is back to handle placekicking for the Bears; he was 13 of 20 on field goals, questionable past the 35. Punter Andrew Larson had a strong 37.6 net and is gone, but his replacement is a top recruit from '07, Bryan Anger. So far witnesses from camp, including the punt returners, are impressed.
Recruiting: Anger isn't the only redshirt frosh that will make an impact this year; the 2007 class was easily top 25 in the nation. Receiver Michael Calvin is another likely starter removing his redshirt. The 2008 class wasn't rated quite as high, but Tedford says that four newcomers (freshmen Marvin Jones, Jarrett Sparks, and Charles Satchell and JUCO Verran Tucker) may play this season at the depleted wide receiver position.
Cal 2008 schedule & forecast |
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8/30 | Sat | vs. | Michigan State | 56% | W | |||
9/6 | Sat | @ | *Washington State | 56% | W | |||
9/13 | Sat | @ | Maryland | 44% | L | |||
9/27 | Sat | vs. | Colorado State | 73% | W | |||
10/4 | Sat | vs. | *Arizona State | 48% | L | |||
10/18 | Sat | @ | *Arizona | 45% | L | |||
10/25 | Sat | vs. | *UCLA | 59% | W | |||
11/1 | Sat | vs. | *Oregon | 40% | L | |||
11/8 | Sat | @ | *Southern California | 39% | L | |||
11/15 | Sat | @ | *Oregon State | 51% | W | |||
11/22 | Sat | vs. | *Stanford | 63% | W | |||
12/6 | Sat | vs. | *Washington | 59% | W | |||
Favored: 7-5 Projected: 6-6 |
2008 Season Outlook As explained in the Offense section, a great season turned sour for Cal fans last year. Starting 5-0 and ending 2-6 doesn't do much for momentum going into the next year, but at least they got the bowl victory and a winning record. Most of the games were close, the largest losing margin being 14 points. So there were still bright spots and good things going on, it just didn't all come together again after Longshore's injury and the unfortunate Oregon State loss.
With a tough Pac-10 in 2008, conference wins are difficult; plus Cal tends to schedule a difficult non-conf as well. This year they have Maryland on the road, a difficult proposition. They also travel to Arizona, another improved team. ASU, Oregon, and USC look like losses as well, but a close victory this time around at Oregon State should give them seven wins. The quarterback play should be better this year, and the team will be better than during last season's slump, though not as good as when they had Forsett and Jackson. The defense will help see them through, so as long as Riley downs the ball like he should and Longshore stays healthy, they should match last year's win total pre-bowl game. The possibility always exists, of course, that Tedford finds enough answers to bring the team back to its former greatness this season rather than having to wait until 2009 or 2010.
33. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (pre-season AP #23, USA-coaches #23) |
2007 Results: Record: 9-4 Bowl: beat UConn 24-10 (Meineke Car Care) Poll finish: #29 AP #28 USA
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #41 Success: #32 Combined: #40
With a little help from FSU's academic scandal, a strong D will allow Wake Forest to compete for a spot in the ACC title game in '08.
Offense (5 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #49 Adj. Rush Yards: #76 Adj. Pass Yards: #90
The Deac offense didn't instill fear into opponents in '07, and '08 will be no different. Quarterback Riley Skinner returns, and though he had just over 2,000 yards and 12 TDs with 13 interceptions, his 72% rate suggests he should be able to cut down on the latter and greatly increase the former; but top receiver Kenny Moore (over 1,000 yards, 12 TDs) is gone. Running back Josh Adams was nearly a 1,000 yard rusher, but loses most of his backups. The offensive line is reduced to three part-time starters, missing all-american center Steve Justice among others. But by featuring Adams and if Skinner improves, the mediocre offense could be just as good despite the losses. A couple of players who missed last year are back, too: fullback Rich Belton and receiver Marshall Williams are now healthy; either or both could be starters.
Defense (9 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #39 Adj. Rush Def: #25 Adj. Pass Def: #82
The defense has the most experience right where they need it. The rushing defense was good last year, and enough talent returns on the line—including starters Boo and Matt Robinson—to keep it that way. The linebacking corps is a coach's dream, with everyone back 2-deep, led by Aaron Curry who had 3 sacks and 4 interceptions. Finally, the secondary, which needs the most improvement, has all four starters back. Safety Chip Vaughn led the team with 105 tackles last year, while corner Alphonso Smith had 8 interceptions. Good talent + good depth is a recipe for a strong defense in 2008.
Kicking Game ('2' RS): Sam Swank handles both punting and placekicking for the Deacons. He's only an adequate punter lately but an excellent kicker, missing just 3 of 21 field goals—though two of those were in the close loss to Virginia.
Recruiting: Jim Grobe has built the Wake program from less than mediocrity into a legitimate ACC contender. And he's done it without getting highly-touted recruiting classes, not that this would have been possible in Winston-Salem before. The '07 class was firmly in the bottom half of the nation as a whole, while the '08 class was just above mid-line. From this, Grobe and staff will mold players that will compete with those from the top 25 classes. Redshirt freshmen Devon Brown and Brendon Pendergrass should help backup the RB and WR positions, while true frosh Joe Looney will be needed on the offensive line.
Wake Forest 2008 schedule & forecast |
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8/30 | Sat | @ | Baylor | 65% | W | |||
9/6 | Sat | vs. | Mississippi | 61% | W | |||
9/20 | Sat | @ | *Florida State | 54% | W | |||
9/27 | Sat | vs. | Navy | 72% | W | |||
10/9 | Thu | vs. | *Clemson | 42% | L | |||
10/18 | Sat | @ | *Maryland | 44% | L | |||
10/25 | Sat | @ | *Miami (Florida) | 60% | W | |||
11/1 | Sat | vs. | *Duke | 67% | W | |||
11/8 | Sat | vs. | *Virginia | 63% | W | |||
11/15 | Sat | @ | *North Carolina St | 65% | W | |||
11/22 | Sat | vs. | *Boston College | 58% | W | |||
11/29 | Sat | vs. | Vanderbilt | 63% | W | |||
Favored: 10-2 Projected: 7-5 |
2008 Season Outlook Wake Forest quietly went 9-4 last year when everyone was expecting a hard fall from '06. Starting the year with two losses didn't help; by the time Nebraska had beaten them at home, most of the country lost interest and assumed they'd shuffle back to the lower half of the ACC. Even after the subsequent six game win streak, which included Florida State, losses to Virginia and Clemson kept Wake out of the top 25, out of sight, and out of mind. But two more wins put them at 8-4, and a victory over Connecticut gave them as many wins as Florida had. But they fell short of top 25 status; they didn't make enough noise in '07.
This year looks even better—on paper at least. Clemson and Maryland look like the only losses, with the luck of the draw—FSU will be hobbled by suspensions—turning a likely loss into a win. Wake's offense at the time will still be a work in progress, but with the Seminoles' heavy suspension losses on D, they have a good chance. A 10-2 year is a possibility, though there is a major caveat, of course. Though they are favored in the bulk of games, they aren't heavy favorites in any of them except maybe Navy and Duke at home (they failed to schedule cupcakes, in other words). Hence the cumulative 7-5. But it looks like last year's eight wins can be readily matched, or surpassed, in 2008.
34. Michigan Wolverines (pre-season USA-Coaches #24) |
2007 Results: Record: 9-4 Bowl: Beat Florida 41-35 (Capital One) Poll finish: #18 AP #19 USA
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #21 Success: #24 Combined: #22
Rich Rodriguez inherits a decimated offense, but in a Big Ten that's weak at the top, they're in a virtual tie for 3rd best team in the conference.
Offense (3 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #57 Adj. Rush Yards: #37 Adj. Pass Yards: #72
Where should we start? Perhaps at quarterback, where the Wolves lose 4-year starter Chad Henne, backup Ryan Mallett transferred, and potentially savior Terrelle Pryor jumped ship to Ohio State? Or running back, with another 4-year starter, Michael Hart, gone? Or maybe receiver: superstars Mario Manningham and Adrian Arrington have moved on. Offensive line? There were two starters back. Then Justen Boren quit the team, and transferred to...Ohio State. Now Stephen Schilling is the lone returnee on the line, and projected starter Cory Zirbel may be out for the season as well. Any good news? Well, distant #3 and #4 receivers Greg Mathews and TE Carson Butler are back, and last year's injuries to Hart gave backs Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown many reps. At QB will be either transfer Steven Threet, soph Nick Sheridan or frosh Justin Feagin. All of them must learn a radically different offense. On the bright side, what better time to install a new system?
Defense (8 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #7 Adj. Rush Def: #30 Adj. Pass Def: #5
The defense, luckily, is in far better shape. Last year the unit was reamed by Armanti Edwards and Dennis Dixon early on, but improved so much that they handled Tim Tebow's best shot in January. This season the front four is back in full force. Terrance Taylor, Tim Jamison, Brandon Graham, and Will Johnson all return and the rushing defense, which was great in later games against Wisconsin and Ohio State, will improve. Linebacker is a weaker area, with Shawn Crable (21 tackles for loss) and Chris Graham gone; only Obi Ezeh returns. The much-maligned secondary ended the year well-respected, and while they lose two top players including #1 tackler Jamar Adams, two starters return plus Brandon Harrison, who started 10 games mostly in the 3-3-5 set that Rodriguez will use. Beyond the starters, at least 17 of last year's reserves on 2nd and 3rd string are back. So while Michigan's D loses its four top tacklers, the next 11 return.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Punter Zoltan Mesko (36 yard net) returns, as does kicker K.C. Lopata, who hit 11 of 12 field goals after replacing Jason Gingell (3 of 9) mid-stream last year.
Recruiting: This is all about the one that got away. Both of the last two classes rank in the top 10, give or take, the current crop somewhat higher. But it could have been among the top few until Terrelle Pryor decommitted, then went through a period of indecision before deciding on Ohio State. It's too bad, really, for the college football world. Seeing a depleted Michigan offense run by the freshman wonder would have created great drama and interest this season. With a coach and a system perfectly suited to his abilities, and a situation where he could have taken the reigns immediately, you have to question his (youthful) judgement to pick corporate, sweater-vested Ohio State, where he may get some use but will be locked within the OSU system, rather than shaping it himself. Other than that, the freshman class is strong, and yet may contain the starting QB in Justin Feagan.
Michigan 2008 schedule & forecast |
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8/30 | Sat | vs. | Utah | 50% | L | |||
9/6 | Sat | vs. | Miami (Ohio) | 70% | W | |||
9/13 | Sat | @ | Notre Dame | 58% | W | |||
9/27 | Sat | vs. | *Wisconsin | 54% | W | |||
10/4 | Sat | vs. | *Illinois | 56% | W | |||
10/11 | Sat | vs. | Toledo | 73% | W | |||
10/18 | Sat | @ | *Penn State | 41% | L | |||
10/25 | Sat | vs. | *Michigan State | 56% | W | |||
11/1 | Sat | @ | *Purdue | 53% | W | |||
11/8 | Sat | @ | *Minnesota | 63% | W | |||
11/15 | Sat | vs. | *Northwestern | 66% | W | |||
11/22 | Sat | @ | *Ohio State | 20% | L | |||
Favored: 9-3 Projected: 7-5 |
2008 Season Outlook Michigan went through the ignomy of the Appalachian State loss and the home field crushing by Oregon. They slogged through the next eight games with victories, beating a very down Notre Dame and mostly subpar Big Ten teams, though Penn State and Illinois were no slouches. The Wolves dropped the last two to Wisconsin and Ohio State (for the 50th year in a row, it seems). Plagued by injuries all year long, they were finally healthy on offense for the Florida bowl game, and came back strong, winning 41-35 and regaining a lot of the respect that the early losses had cost them.
I once again see Michigan possibly losing their home opener, this time in a close game with much-improved Utah. It's too close to call and I keep going back and forth on it. But after that, scheduling is the Wolverines' friend. They get Wisconsin, Illinois, and Michigan State at home. All three of these would be road losses. They lose on the road to teams (Penn State, Ohio State) that probably would beat them in Ann Arbor anyway. This puts the Wolves at 9-3 or 10-2 for the year.
Of course this assumes the defense can carry them through the earlier games until the offense comes together (assuming that happens, too). A dip to 7-5 might be a more realistic, less rosy projection, as Notre Dame always gives them fits when not expected, Purdue at home will be tough, etc. But even that, or a repeat of last year's 8-4, would be welcome in what is really a rebuilding—almost rebooting—year with a new coaching staff.
35. Oklahoma State Cowboys |
2007 Results: Record: 7-6 Bowl: Beat Indiana 49-33 (Insight Bowl) Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #24 Success: #49 Combined: #28
The Cowboys played a lot better than their record showed last year. This year (Mike Gundy's 41st) their record might show better than they play.
Offense (7 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #14 Adj. Rush Yards: #7 Adj. Pass Yards: #40
When it was all said and done, a star was discovered. Zac Robinson took over as starter for the Cowboys and racked up 2,824 yards passing and 847 rushing, scoring 23 TDs by air and 9 by ground, with only 9 interceptions and averaging over 6 yards a carry. Zac's back, and his targets include Mackey-watchlisted tight end Brandon Pettigrew, who has put his legal troubles behind him; '07 starting wide receiver Jeremy Broadway; and Dez Bryant, Damian Davis, and DeMarcus Conner, who might all start ahead of Broadway. Plus an offensive line that returns four starters while the fifth (center David Washington) started in '05 and '06. Those are the positives. The negatives? 1,000 yard rusher Dantrell Savage (9 TDs) is gone; 1,000 yard receiver Adarius Bowman (8 TDs) is gone; depth at QB is lost with the transfer of backup and former starter Bobby Reid; and unlike most teams, the 2nd and 3rd string offensive reserves from '07 are depleted (only ~8 of 22 return), so depth everywhere other than the line is an issue. If injuries take hold, the Cowboys have a problem.
Defense (6 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #53 Adj. Rush Def: #68 Adj. Pass Def: #75
The Cowboy defense was homogenously porous last year. This season the rushing defense will likely suffer, as three starters are lost from the front four. At linebacker they lose leading tackler Donovan Woods but he was just one tackle ahead of #2 Patrick Levine who returns. Andre Sexton moves in from safety and is essentially the only starter lost from the secondary. Jacob Lacey (5 INTs) and Ricky Price were full-time starters, while Perrish Cox and Quinton Moore each started part-time. Overall, the Cowboy defense returns five of its top six tacklers.
Kicking Game (1.5 RS): Punter Matt Fodge is back; he averaged a decent 42.4 yards in '07. The Cowboys tried two kickers but neither one could make a long field goal. Jason Ricks (1 of 6 outside the 30) is gone, but Matt Bailey (0-2) returns.
Recruiting: Oklahoma State was consistent the last two years, both classes ranking around 30th. This season's big buzz is Beau Johnson, a JUCO running back many think will start (currently behind soph Kendall Hunter). JUCO Lucien Antione will get time at free safety. Yet another JUCO, Donald Booker, will compete for open linebacker spot.
Oklahoma State 2008 schedule & forecast |
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8/30 | Sat | @ | Washington State | 56% | W | |||
9/6 | Sat | vs. | Houston | 70% | W | |||
9/13 | Sat | vs. | Missouri State | 83% | W | |||
9/27 | Sat | vs. | Troy | 57% | W | |||
10/4 | Sat | vs. | *Texas A&M | 57% | W | |||
10/11 | Sat | @ | *Missouri | 30% | L | |||
10/18 | Sat | vs. | *Baylor | 72% | W | |||
10/25 | Sat | @ | *Texas | 38% | L | |||
11/1 | Sat | vs. | *Iowa State | 73% | W | |||
11/8 | Sat | @ | *Texas Tech | 29% | L | |||
11/15 | Sat | @ | *Colorado | 47% | L | |||
11/29 | Sat | vs. | *Oklahoma | 35% | L | |||
Favored: 7-5 Projected: 6-6 |
2008 Season Outlook Looking back, the season wasn't as bad as it appeared some times, nor as good as it seemed. Losing to Georgia 35-14 shouldn't have felt shameful, and Troy turned out to be a respectable giant-killer (though they walloped the Cowboys pretty bad). Beating Florida Atlantic 42-6 certainly didn't register like it should have, and the win over Texas Tech looks like a strong victory now. Scoring 45 on Nebraska wasn't impressive just a few weeks later, and beating Kansas State looked better before everyone started doing it. The two games that still feel like they did at the time are the 1-point loss to Texas A&M (Cowboys were up 17-0) and the thrashing of Indiana in the Insight Bowl.
This year's scheduling could lead to some disappointment. Not only are most of the easier teams up front, which is normal, but after the trip to Seattle (where they play WSU) there are four home games in a row. By this time OK State could be 5-0. After Missouri and Baylor? 6-1. After Iowa State and Texas? 7-2. 7-2 with losses only to Missouri and Texas could put the Cowboys pretty high in the rankings. But the next three could all be losses, leading to a 7-5 finish. One game better than '07, but it might not feel like an accomplishment at the time. Much like last season, things may feel different at the time than they do when you put them in perspective.
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