SportsRatings is ranking all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August until the season begins. These rankings are meant to reflect how good the teams might be in 2008 without taking schedule into account.
Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for each team, and two projected records are given: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and another cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty in the predictions. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. (Schedule listings adapted from James Howell's site)
This installment covers teams from #26 to #30. To see the full list, click here.
| 26. Pittsburgh Panthers (pre-season #25 AP) |
2007 Results: Record: 5-7 Bowl: n/a Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #59 Success: #41 Combined: #58
After all the waiting, is it finally time for Pitt to break through under head coach Dave Wannstedt?
Offense (8 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #82 Adj. Rush Yards: #70 Adj. Pass Yards: #104
The Panther offense left a lot to be desired last year. Help is on the way in 2008, as nearly every skill position returns. Though starting QB Pat Bostick is back along with backup Kevan Smith, neither was consistent and both will be backups this season as original '07 starter Bill Stull returns from injury. The receiving corps is ready, starring Oderick Turner, T.J. Porter, tight end Nate Byham, and '06 starter Derek Kinder, and the passing game has nowhere to go but up. The running game was somewhat better, and this year LeSean McCoy (1,328 yards, 14 TDs) wants to break out. Backup LaRod Stephens-Howling and fullback Conredge Collins fill out the ground attack. The only question is the line, which loses three starters. They've lost weight as part of Wannstedt's conditioning philosophy—he wants a leaner, faster line to deal with today's quicker defensive linemen.
Defense (7 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #29 Adj. Rush Def: #23 Adj. Pass Def: #8
The defense carried the team most of last year; the offense scored little even in victory. The core of the defense is back in each area. Two starters leave the D-line, including Joe Clermond (10.5 sacks), but Mick Williams and Rashaad Duncan return, and Greg Romeus moves in after an excellent freshman year. Unfortunately Doug Fulmer, returning after injuries the past two seasons, hurt his knee again and is out the year. All three linebackers—the team's top tacklers Scott McKillop (151 tackles!), Shane Murray, and Adam Gunn—are back. Despite hauling in very few interceptions, Pitt yielded one of the lowest pass yardages in the country (#3 by raw yards, #8 when adjusted for opposition). They lose two starters, but Eric Thatcher and Aaron Berry head a group that will try to keep Pitt in the top 10. To fill in the gaps on defense, about 19 or 20 of the 2nd and 3rd string return, so depth is not an issue.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Conor Lee is one of the most reliable kickers in college football, hitting 18 of 22 field goals plus all his PATs (Pitt's offense only generated 28 attempts). Punter Dave Brytus had a so-so average (39.6) and net (34.5).
Recruiting: When Wannstedt took over at Pitt, they'd already been having winning seasons; he was supposed to take them to the next level. Since then the wins have been few and much patience necessary. But every year he's had a good recruiting class, and the quality players are building up inside the program. The 2007 class was an excellent, top 20 class while the 2008 class was again in the top 30. The star of this year's crop could be Rob Houser, a JUCO transfer slated to start at center. There are 13 freshman in the two-deep, 10 from '07 and three from '08.
Pitt 2008 schedule & forecast |
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| 8/30 | Sat | vs. | Bowling Green | 73% | W | |||
| 9/6 | Sat | vs. | Buffalo | 73% | W | |||
| 9/20 | Sat | vs. | Iowa | 63% | W | |||
| 9/27 | Sat | @ | *Syracuse | 72% | W | |||
| 10/2 | Thu | @ | *South Florida | 30% | L | |||
| 10/18 | Sat | @ | Navy | 68% | W | |||
| 10/25 | Sat | vs. | *Rutgers | 54% | W | |||
| 11/1 | Sat | @ | Notre Dame | 60% | W | |||
| 11/8 | Sat | vs. | *Louisville | 68% | W | |||
| 11/22 | Sat | @ | *Cincinnati | 45% | L | |||
| 11/28 | Fri | vs. | *West Virginia | 41% | L | |||
| 12/6 | Sat | @ | *Connecticut | 44% | L | |||
Favored: 8-4 Projected: 7-5 |
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2008 Season Outlook 2007 was just like the previous few years under Wannstedt: a promising start, then disappointment and a "wait 'till next year" feeling sinking in. Then in the last game of the season, The Upset happened.
Pitt had already defeated Cincinnati to break a four-game losing streak, but more observers tended to deem Cincy overrated and leave it at that. The fact was, Pitt's defense was getting good enough that the team could potentially compete with anyone, as long as the offense gave something, which it usually couldn't. Pitt dropped three of the next four, beating only Syracuse to stand 4-7. The most daunting game of the season, a road trip to West Virginia, followed. The Mountaineers just had to win the game to be in the BCS title game, and Pitt had nothing to win in terms of bowl eligibility. But the Panthers shut down the nation's most productive offense and pulled off a stunning 13-9 win. Once again, the offense had little to do with it, but it was a start. And it put Pitt football back on the map, if only as spoilers, but this season they can do more.
Pitt will be a good team in 2008. The initial wins will continue through the middle of the season. At the end, the games get a lot harder, but if they gain confidence by then? Maybe some more upsets are in the works. A lot of the teams on the schedule are unpredictable; some deem Iowa and Notre Dame much better teams, and USF and Cincinnati much worse. So I may have more confidence in a conservative projection like the cumulative 7-5. But at 7 wins or 8, Pitt's finally going to a bowl game under Dave Wannstedt, I'm pretty sure of that.
| 27. Arizona Wildcats |
2007 Results: Record: 5-7 Bowl: n/a Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #32 Success: #50 Combined: #38
Arizona could be the surprise 4th place team in the Pac-10. More surprisingly, they could have a really good offense this season.
Offense (10 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #33 Adj. Rush Yards: #94 Adj. Pass Yards: #11
This offense is set at nearly every position. The passing game was great last year under a new offensive coordinator and should be again; the ground game can only improve behind a strong offensive line. Willie Tuitama returns for his senior year, having led the team for three seasons. Last year's was the best, as he topped 3,500 yards and 28 TDs with only 12 interceptions, completing 62.4%. All the starting receivers are back, with Mike Thomas' 1,038 yards and 11 touchdown receptions the best (Thomas also had a TD run from scrimmage and returned punts). Nicholas Grigsby is the big hope for the rushing attack, with 704 yards but just 2 TDs in '07. The offensive line should be able to deliver, with four starters back, but they lose 4-year starter Peter Graniello, and his purported replacement—ex-Texas JUCO J'Marcus Webb—did not qualify academically.
Defense (3 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #42 Adj. Rush Def: #21 Adj. Pass Def: #61
The defense has been good in the past in Mike Stoops' reign at Arizona, but now that the offense is taking off the defense has some challenges. The front line loses all four starters, and projected starting DE Jonathan Turner was suspended indefinitely. At linebacker Ronnie Palmer is the only returnee, but he was the team's 2nd leading tackler last year (#1 was LB Spencer Larsen, who graduated to the NFL). The secondary is the most solid area of the defense with two starters back, but the ones they lost—Andre Cason, the top d-back in the country last year, and 3-year starter Wilrey Fontenot—are difficult to replace. While the situation looks bad when counting key players lost from the 1st string, this is mitigated by the 18 that return from the 2nd and 3rd string. Still, the Wildcats lose seven of their top nine tacklers.
Kicking Game (2 RS): The kicking game is an area of strength for the Wildcats. Some people discount the relative value of placekicking and punting, but the kicker is generally the high scorer on the team, and punting can control field position. Keenyn Crier averaged 43.7 yards and an excellent 38.1 net per punt. Jason Bondzio was 21 of 26 field goals last year. Both are back, and provide a tangible advantage.
Recruiting: Stoops' recruiting sits around 40th best in the nation the last two years. This year's score was supposed to be JUCO Webb, a 6' 8" 320 lb. offensive tackle who played at Texas as a freshman, had to go to junior college for a year, and committed to Arizona. He didn't pass clearinghouse, and ended up at West Texas A&M this year. Instead, the featured JUCO may be LB Vuna Tuihalamaka, who joins his cousin, redshirt freshman DE Apaiata Tuihalamaka, in bolstering the defense.
Arizona 2008 schedule & forecast |
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| 8/30 | Sat | vs. | Idaho | 81% | W | |||
| 9/6 | Sat | vs. | Toledo | 74% | W | |||
| 9/13 | Sat | @ | New Mexico | 62% | W | |||
| 9/20 | Sat | @ | *UCLA | 54% | W | |||
| 10/4 | Sat | vs. | *Washington | 62% | W | |||
| 10/11 | Sat | @ | *Stanford | 58% | W | |||
| 10/18 | Sat | vs. | *California | 56% | W | |||
| 10/25 | Sat | vs. | *Southern California | 48% | L | |||
| 11/8 | Sat | @ | *Washington State | 59% | W | |||
| 11/15 | Sat | @ | *Oregon | 35% | L | |||
| 11/22 | Sat | vs. | *Oregon State | 60% | W | |||
| 12/6 | Sat | vs. | *Arizona State | 51% | W | |||
Favored: 10-2 Projected: 7-5 |
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2008 Season Outlook Every time Arizona played poorly last year, it was proof that they're no good. And every time they exceeded expectations, the other team was ridiculed. The truth is, Arizona was much better, on average, than people thought. But they couldn't get over the hump in big games, and screwed up against lesser teams, making an overall decent team look mostly pathetic.
The loss to BYU was nothing to be ashamed of, but to some a BCS school shouldn't ever lose to a non-BCS opponent. Worse was the loss to New Mexico (who ended up 9-4). The 'Cats beat Washington State 48-20, which was taken as a sign that WSU was in trouble. When they played USC frighteningly close, people questioned the Trojans, or excused it due to backup Sanchez starting at QB. The loss to Stanford of course showed again how poor the Wildcats were. There were excuses for the next three wins as well: Washington was having a bad year; UCLA had quarterback issues; and of course, Dennis Dixon got hurt. All of this was true, but the fact that they could beat Oregon under any circumstances should have clued people in that the team was making progress. Next week, they lost to Arizona State by a field goal, which was written off due to its rivalry status.
This year the improvement should be undeniable. Despite the defense's losses, the offense is loaded and the schedule is compliant; the Wildcats could win nine games. Even the home loss to USC rates very close, and with luck they beat ASU at home. They play a lot of the lesser teams in the conference early, so the 'Cats could be 7-0 when they face the Trojans! But the cumulative projection allows just seven wins total, and given Arizona's recent history, I'd lean toward that as more likely than 10-2. However, a bowl game looks almost certain, and Mike Stoops' job appears to be safe for at least another year.
| 28. Florida State Seminoles |
2007 Results: Record: 7-6 Bowl: Lost to Kentucky 35-28 (Music City Bowl) Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #50 Success: #40 Combined: #49
Florida State is one of the most improved teams this year—that is, they will be once they get past the player suspensions that run through the third game of the season
Offense (7 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #75 Adj. Rush Yards: #77 Adj. Pass Yards: #47
Where has Florida State's offense gone the last few years? Unable to run the ball or find a consistent quarterback, the production has come in spurts, never close to the unstoppable offenses of the '90s. But things might finally get back on track this year. Drew Weatherford returns at QB for his fourth year, and for the first time he won't have to battle Xavier Lee. He threw only 3 interceptions last season, but just 9 TDs and barely over 2,000 yards. Three receivers had 700+ yards in '07 and two are back, Greg Carr and Preston Parker (suspended 1st 2 games). Tight end Charlie Graham may or may not return depending on his grades, and at one point he was assumed to be lost. The running game looks good, as Antoine Smith (819 yards) returns with fullback Seddrick Holloway. Parker was the #2 rusher last year and also handled punt/kickoff returns. The only weak link is the offensive line, where just two starters are back since tackle Daron Rose's dismissal. Worse, projected starter at left guard Evan Bellamy is out for the season due to a blood clot. That leaves center Ryan McMahon and left tackle Rodney Hudson—who both started as freshmen—anchoring the line, and three freshmen—redshirts Will Furlong, Antwane Greenlee, and true Zebrie Sanders—filling it out. This has to be the youngest offensive line in the country and they'll be tested. Luckily they have two cupcakes on the schedule to start out.
Defense (8 [5] RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #25 Adj. Rush Def: #38 Adj. Pass Def: #76
The defense will be strong this year in Tallahassee. The front four return several players with starting experience, chief among them Everett Brown (6.5 sacks), Budd Thacker, and Neefy Moffett. But the latter two, along with starter Paul Griffin and reserves Kevin McNeil and Justin Mincy, will miss the first three games due to the academic scandal suspensions, leaving the D-line weak for Wake Forest (worse, late in camp, reserve Emmanuel Dunbar was taken away on a stretcher). The 'Noles are strong at linebacker, with #1 tackler Derek Nicholson and Dekoda Watson back, but Watson and starter Toddrick Verdell will miss the Wake game. The secondary is loaded, with Myron Rolle and Tony Carter back as starters; Michael Ray Garvin returns, too, but his starting spot will be taken by Patrick Robinson (6 INTs)—after the third game, when Robinson comes off academic suspension.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Punter Graham Gano is back, having averaged 43.4 per kick. Gary Cismesia, who hit 27 of 34 last year including a 60 yarders, is gone. Gano may take over as placekicker.
Recruiting: The pipeline is still pushing great players into the system. After an off-year in 2007 (borderline top 25) Bobby Bowden had another top 10 class for 2008. Perhaps the naming of Jimbo Fisher as (eventual) successor helped? In any case, there are some great players in the last few classes, and you can see four of them starting on this year's offensive line (see Offense), including two redshirt freshmen (Furlong and Greenlee), a true soph (Hudson) and a true freshman (Sanders). 2008 recruit Markus White will start at defensive end for at least the first three games; in fact on defense, there will be a lot of fresh faces for the first quarter of the season.
FSU 2008 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/6 | Sat | vs. | Western Carolina | 82% | W | |||
| 9/13 | Sat | vs. | Tenn.-Chattanooga | 75% | W | |||
| 9/20 | Sat | vs. | *Wake Forest | 45% | L |
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| 9/27 | Sat | vs. | Colorado | 58% | W |
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| 10/4 | Sat | @ | *Miami (Florida) | 62% | W |
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| 10/16 | Thu | @ | *North Carolina St. | 68% | W |
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| 10/25 | Sat | vs. | *Virginia Tech | 56% | W |
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| 11/1 | Sat | @ | *Georgia Tech | 60% | W |
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| 11/8 | Sat | vs. | *Clemson | 45% | L | |||
| 11/15 | Sat | vs. | *Boston College | 60% | W |
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| 11/22 | Sat | @ | *Maryland | 46% | L | |||
| 11/29 | Sat | vs. | Florida | 32% | L | |||
Favored: 8-4 Projected: 7-5 |
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2008 Season Outlook The 'Noles had another one of those seasons, with some good victories where it looked like things were finally back on track, to frustrating losses that showed they weren't. The home loss to Miami and the 45-12 drubbing by Florida were the low moments.
Ending another disappointing season 7-5, the academic cheating scandal depleted the team for the bowl game against Kentucky. More than 25 players missed the game, though many were for other reasons, so it's not clear exactly who is still suspended for the first three games of the season, but here's what I've figured out from various sources, including looking at who didn't play against Kentucky.
The number that's been thrown around most is ten players, and seven current starters, probably counted against the spring lineup. On offense:
Caz Piurowski, starting TE
Richard Goodman, reserve WR
And on defense:
Paul Griffin, starting DL
Budd Thacker, starting DL
Neefy Moffett, starting DL
Kevin McNeil, reserve DL
Justin Mincey, reserve DL
Dekoda Watson, starting LB
Toddrick Verdell, starting LB
Patrick Robinson, starting CB
I'm not 100% certain about these; it's a best guess because nothing official has been said, though a few players have mentioned that they are part of the suspended lot. In any case, it has an effect. Losing all these players drops FSU to #61 in my rating system for the first three games. Although the first two games are I-AA teams, and particularly bad ones, the third game against Wake Forest is affected. What would have been a win turns into a very likely loss. Without it they could have started 8-0 going into the the tough last four games of their season. FSU faces only four road games this season and could have a breakthrough year if they get past Wake and can handle Clemson and Maryland. The Florida-FSU game would really mean something! But I think they'll lose to Wake Forest, and finish with either 4 or 5 losses as projected. The offensive line is just too young, but in the years to come it will be a force. The Seminoles are on their way back; they just need to avoid the off-field issues that have bit them this year.
| 29. Rutgers Scarlet Knights |
2007 Results: Record: 8-5 Bowl: beat Ball State 52-30 (International) Poll finish: #39 AP
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #36 Success: #39 Combined: #36
The loss of Ray Rice will hurt, but the program is still strong.
Offense (7 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #37 Adj. Rush Yards: #31 Adj. Pass Yards: #44
For the last three years Ray Rice has been the star of Rutgers' offense as the program gained national prominence. Last year's 2,012 yards and 24 TDs won't be replaced easily, but quarterback Mike Teel had an excellent year himself: 3,147 yards and 20 TDs, despite playing hurt much of the time. And all the key receivers are back, led by Kenny Britt and Tiquan Underwood, who had over 1,000 yards each and 15 combined TDs. If the offensive line, which loses three starters, can protect Teel close to as well as last year (only 11 sacks allowed), then Rutgers could be a great passing team while Rice's understudies develop.
Defense (8 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #41 Adj. Rush Def: #70 Adj. Pass Def: #18
The rushing defense was shaky last season, but the veteran line is stocked with experience: three starters return and the fourth has starting experience; seniors Jamaal Westerman (8 sacks) and Peter Tverdov return at tackle, with junior George Johnson and senior Gary Watts at the ends. Two starters are back at linebacker including Kevin Malast (team's #2 tackler), and two other LBs who were injured last year return healthy in '07. The secondary is led by Courtney Green (team's #1 tackler) and the McCourty brothers, Devin and Jason. Twelve of the 15 top tacklers from '07 return for '08.
Kicking Game (0 RS): Jeremy Ito handled both chores last season, and he's moved on. As a kicker, he had a long career at Rutgers, but he punted only because no one else was available, averaging just 35.7 yards. They need a good kicker, but locating a punter who can do as well shouldn't be hard. Two redshirts to the rescue: freshman San San Te is listed at kicker and JUCO Teddy Dallaganna—who disconcertingly was beat out last year by Ito—takes over at punter.
Recruiting: Stories about how Rutgers is starting to compete with the big boys in recruiting have appeared steadily over the last few years, but the truth is that this is rare; Rutgers classes rank in the 30s and 40s lately, better than in the past but not Notre Dame level. They do occasionally land highly-touted recruits now. The big name this year was supposed to be Scott Vallone, ready to move in at defensive end; injuries have kept him out of the starting lineup. The starting spot at right guard is a competition between freshmen from '07 and '08, with Caleb Ruch leading Art Forst. And another redshirt freshman, Manny Abreu, is starting at linebacker ahead of last year's starter Damaso Muñoz.
Rutgers 2008 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/1 | Mon | vs. | Fresno State | 57% | W | |||
| 9/11 | Thu | vs. | North Carolina | 56% | W | |||
| 9/20 | Sat | @ | Navy | 67% | W | |||
| 9/27 | Sat | vs. | Morgan State | 100% | W | |||
| 10/4 | Sat | @ | *West Virginia | 33% | L | |||
| 10/11 | Sat | @ | *Cincinnati | 45% | L | |||
| 10/18 | Sat | vs. | *Connecticut | 51% | W | |||
| 10/25 | Sat | @ | *Pittsburgh | 46% | L | |||
| 11/8 | Sat | vs. | *Syracuse | 79% | W | |||
| 11/15 | Sat | @ | *South Florida | 30% | L | |||
| 11/22 | Sat | vs. | Army | 90% | W | |||
| 12/4 | Thu | vs. | *Louisville | 67% | W | |||
Favored: 8-4 Projected: 7-5 |
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2008 Season Outlook Coming off the magical 2006 campaign, last year was a bit of a slog. Beating overmatched Buffalo, Navy, and Norfolk meant nothing, especially after losing to Maryland and Cincinnati. The Knights came back to give USF its first loss, but dropped the big game with West Virginia 31-3, and ended the year losing to a fading Louisville team. They took out their frustrations on Ball State in the International Bowl, with Rice rushing for 280 yards and 4 TDs.
This year could be marginally better. Once again they won't be among the Big East's elite, but neither in the cellar. Unfortunately they have four conference road games, playing at Pitt, at Cincinnati, at West Virginia, and at USF. The teams they play at home they would probably beat on the road, save Connecticut. For non-conference play, Morgan State and Army provide comic relief, but Fresno State and UNC are no pushovers and will provide a stiff early test. All in all, I have them favored in eight, with the closest game being UConn which could drop them to 7-5. With the two gimmes on the schedule, I can see them improving their record, but with Ray Rice gone another 7-5 year might be more likely, and they won't compete with the league's best teams.
| 30. Kentucky Wildcats |
2007 Results: Record: 8-5 Bowl: beat FSU 35-28 (Music City Bowl) Poll finish: #28 AP #31 USA
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #26 Success: #19 Combined: #25
Due to amazing depth in reserves, Kentucky may be surprisingly good despite losing Andre Woodson.
Offense (4 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #11 Adj. Rush Yards: #48 Adj. Pass Yards: #20
The loss of Andre Woodson is critical to this team, not just the offense. With 40 touchdowns and 3,709 yards last year, he put the team on the map, and the 'Cats have few options to replace him now that junior Curtis Pulley is off the team. There are other issues, too. Leading rushing Rafael Little (1,013 yards) is gone, and top receiver Steve Johnson (1,041 yards, 13 TDs) departs as well; there is strength at RB but only Dicky Lyons returns of the top 5 pass catchers. The team will definitely emphasize the run more next year, as the offensive line is their only bright spot, returning three starters, though backup Christian Johnson may be gone for '08. Although only 4 starters are back, 20 of the 24 top players beyond that return, so there is experience and depth but not quality at key positions.
Defense (7 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #63 Adj. Rush Def: #85 Adj. Pass Def: #36
The UK defense couldn't stop the run very well last year, but should be better with three starters back on the front four, including end Jeremy Jarmon who had 9 sacks. The 'Cats are loaded with linebackers, so despite the huge loss of leading-tackler-by-a-mile Wesley Woodyard (139 tackles), two solid starters (Johnny Williams and Braxton Kelly) return with a backup (Micah Johnson) who was the 5th leading tackler last season. The secondary, which did an adequate job defending the pass in '07, looked to be set with three starters until cornerback Paul Warford was declared ineligible. Still, there may be improvement as corner Trevor Lindley and safety Marcus McClinton return and the corps is deep; overall on defense 18 2nd and 3rd stringers are back. Though they lose their clear #1 tackler, the defense returns nine of the top ten.
Kicking Game (2 RS): This is one of the few places the Wildcats don't need to look to reserves. Starting punter Tim Masthay and kicker Lones Sieber return, though neither is spectacular.
Recruiting: Kentucky is a very different team than when Rich Brooks took over five years ago. The speed and talent level of the squad overall has increased dramatically, allowing them to compete in the SEC rather than just reside there. Though the last few classes have only been about average, it was a lot worse before Brooks got here and he'll occasionally have a higher-ranked group. This year so much depth returns to the team that true freshmen will be mostly crowded out, but Aaron Boyd and Randall Cobb (QB in high school) will try to help out the depleted receiver corps.
Kentucky 2008 schedule & forecast |
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| 8/30 | Sat | @ | Louisville | 59% | W | |||
| 9/6 | Sat | vs. | Norfolk State | 96% | W | |||
| 9/13 | Sat | vs. | Middle Tennessee | 75% | W | |||
| 9/27 | Sat | vs. | Western Kentucky | 78% | W | |||
| 10/4 | Sat | @ | *Alabama | 42% | L | |||
| 10/11 | Sat | vs. | *South Carolina | 46% | L | |||
| 10/18 | Sat | vs. | *Arkansas | 57% | W | |||
| 10/25 | Sat | @ | *Florida | 24% | L | |||
| 11/1 | Sat | @ | *Mississippi State | 51% | W | |||
| 11/8 | Sat | vs. | *Georgia | 42% | L | |||
| 11/15 | Sat | vs. | *Vanderbilt | 64% | W | |||
| 11/29 | Sat | @ | *Tennessee | 42% | L | |||
Favored: 7-5 Projected: 7-5 |
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2008 Season Outlook Last season was supposed to be a breakthrough year and for a while, it was. The 'Cats rolled through their early schedule, upsetting Louisville and Arkansas along the way, before being stopped by South Carolina. No matter; the next week they pulled a major upset of LSU in triple overtime. This led to a shootout between Woodson and Tim Tebow that the Heisman winner barely won, 45-37. After that Kentucky's season started to fall apart; upset by Mississippi, they lost to Georgia and then in quadruple overtime to Tennessee, finishing 7-5 after starting 5-0. Their win over FSU in the Music City Bowl should have been triumphant, but due to the Seminoles' decimated lineup from the academic cheating scandal, most thought the 35-28 final score was unnecessarily close.
The Wildcats have three pretty easy games on the schedule, and should beat Louisville again this year as the Cards are down. Once the SEC gets started, the wins are few and far between, but they're still favored in half the overall schedule. While the cumulative projection also adds up to seven wins due to close losses, and the Mississippi State game is certainly winnable, with all the change on offense I wouldn't necessarily bet on them repeating last season's tally. 6-6 will still get you to a bowl game coming from the SEC.
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