2008 pre-season rankings: #23 Alabama; #24 Utah; #25 Maryland

SportsRatings is ranking all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August until the season begins. These rankings are meant to reflect how good the teams might be in 2008 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for each team, and two projected records are given: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and another cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty in the predictions. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. (Schedule listings adapted from James Howell's site)

This installment covers teams from #23 to #25. To see the full list, click here.

23. Alabama Crimson Tide     (pre-season AP #24)

2007 Results:    Record: 7-6   Bowl: beat Colorado 30-24 (Independence Bowl)    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #34    Success: #37    Combined: #33
The Tide have enough returning talent, and incoming talent, to help them erase the memories of a discordant first year with head coach Nick Saban.
Offense (9 RS)     '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #45    Adj. Rush Yards: #53    Adj. Pass Yards: #50
Last year's Tide offense was pretty bland at everything. Scoring, rushing, passing, all were slightly above-average for the nation, but that doesn't cut it in the SEC. John Parker Wilson led a decent passing game, throwing for 2,846 yards and 18 TDs. He even had a 1,000 yard receiver (D.J. Hall) to look for, but no more. He still has starters Mike McCoy at WR and tight ends Nick Walker and Travis McCall back, but those lost account for 13 TDs. Luckily, help is one the way from the freshman class in the form of top-ranked receiver Julio Jones. The running game was mediocre too but should improve a lot, as everyone is back led by sophomore Terry Grant (891 yards, 8 TDs), who could have a breakout season if injury-free. The O-line returns four starters led by tackle Andre Smith and should ensure improvement in both the rushing and passing game.
Defense (5 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #28    Adj. Rush Def: #16    Adj. Pass Def: #80
The defensive side of the equation is a bit more complicated. The rushing defense was solid last year in the 3-4, and two of those starters are back on the line, Brandon Deaderick and Lorenzon Washington. They lose a key component in stopping the run and the pass: Wallace Gilberry was the team's #2 tackler and had 27 tackles for loss, with 10 of those being quarterback sacks. The situation is just as mixed at linebacker. They looked pretty well set before the spring, with Rolando McClain back from a great freshman year, Ezekial Knight and Prince Hall returning, and frosh star Jerrell Harris and ex-RB Jimmy Johns joining the corps. But then Hall was suspended, Johns was kicked off the team, and Knight was medically disqualified due to a heart condition. Hall will be back after the first three games, however. In the secondary, corner Kareem Jackson and #1 tackler Rashad Johnson (6 int.) return, but key backup Lionel Mitchell recently left due to back problems. 
Kicking Game (2 RS): Punter P.J. Fitzgerald is back after a mediocre '07 (38.7 ave) and kicker Leigh Tiffin returns, too. Tiffin missed 9 field goals last year, but that's largely because he has a good range so the attempt is worth it; he was 10 of 15 beyond the 40.
Recruiting: Alabama's 2008 class got a lot of press and praise. Heralded unanimously as the top class in the country, it had both quality and numbers, and it's a big reason for the Tide's higher pre-season ranking. A slew of true freshmen will help out in a number of areas. At linebacker, Don'ta Hightower may start at linebacker in addition to Harris, putting two true freshman with sophomore McClain. In the secondary Robert Lester and Alonzo Lawrence could jump in right away. Tyler Love has been slated for action or possible start on the offensive line. But the biggest score was at receiver, where five-star recruit Julio Jones is expected to shine. In fact, the class is full of great receivers, but several of them are already gone: Destin Hood and Melvin Ray signed to play baseball, and Devonta Bolton is headed for junior college (as is defensive end recruit Brandon Lewis). These losses have dropped the class in my estimation to #2 behind Notre Dame; regardless, it's going to help the Tide for years.
2008 Season Outlook: Last season was painful not just for the losses but for the team's attitude becoming unravelled in the 2nd half of the year. Things started out promising enough with a 41-38 win over Arkansas in the 3rd game, but soon the Tide were 3-2, suffering close losses to Georgia and FSU. The 30-24 victory over Houston and 24-21 Ole Miss final, like the 24-10 Vanderbilt win early on, raised some more flags for this team's inability to put away weaker squads. But after crushing Tennessee 41-17, Alabama was 6-2 and it looked like the Tide would roll with Saban after all. They very nearly upset LSU, but came up short, 41-34, after which things started to become unglued. They lost to Mississippi State 17-12, and the following week the suffered the most embarrassing loss a 'Bama team has had in a long time, falling to Louisiana-Monroe of the Sun Belt conference—at home. A competitive loss to rival Auburn closed the season at 6-6. They had still "earned" a bowl bid, against similarly mediocre Colorado, and they managed to close on a good note, winning 30-24. But the season left a bad taste in many fans' mouths, as the contentiousness within the team led to loads of disciplinary measures by Saban to avoid an open revolt.

Alabama 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	N	Clemson	42%	L
9/6	Sat	vs.	Tulane	81%	W
9/13	Sat	vs.	Western Kentucky	80%	W
9/20	Sat	@	*Arkansas	52%	W
9/27	Sat	@	*Georgia	37%	L
10/4	Sat	vs.	*Kentucky	56%	W
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi	64%	W
10/25	Sat	@	*Tennessee	45%	L
11/1	Sat	vs.	Arkansas State	79%	W
11/8	Sat	@	*Louisiana State	41%	L
11/15	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi State	59%	W
11/29	Sat	vs.	*Auburn	49%	L
Favored: 7-5  Projected: 7-5

Alabama has five really tough games on their schedule: the Atlanta opener against Clemson, then road contests at Georgia, Tennessee, and LSU. They finish at home against Auburn. All of these could be losses but they might beat Auburn at home. In between are a lot of games they should win, and hopefully this year's late Sun Belt opponent isn't as greedy. There are four or five losses on this schedule, but probably no more than that, so the Tide should be in a better bowl but not one of the big ones, unless this time around they're the upsetter rather than the upsettee.

24. Utah Utes

2007 Results:     Record: 9-4     Bowl: beat Navy 35-32 (Poinsettia Bowl)  Poll finish: #32 AP #38 USA
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #31    Success: #44    Combined: #34
Utah is the real team to beat in the Mountain West, and the most likely BCS-crasher, too.
Offense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #69   Adj. Rush Yards: #36  Adj. Pass Yards: #74
Brian Johnson is back, healthy, and ready to go in his senior season, after playing much of last year hurt. He still mananged almost 2,000 passing yards and 150 net rushing yards, with 11 TDs and 10 interceptions. Those numbers don't tell the story of what he does for the team at full-strength; without him, Utah was 1-3; with him, 8-1. The rest of the offense is ready, too. Running back Darrell Mack returns after a 1,200 yard season (12 TDs), with Matt Asiata back from injury. The Utes lose three top receivers (Marquis Wilson is back on the team but isn't allowed to play this year) but return two as well, Brandon Godfrey and Freddie Brown, plus Brent Casteel, a starter in '06. The line returns four starters. Injuries are the only thing that can keep this offense from being dramatically improved from last year's squad.
Defense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #10   Adj. Rush Def: #26    Adj. Pass Def: #16
The Ute defense was among the best last year, holding opponents to far below their average overall. The front four helped hold six opponents under 100 yards rushing in '07, and both starters at end are back, Koa Misi and Paul Kruger, but they lose Martail Burnett (7 sacks) and Gabe Long on the inside. At linebacker only Stevenson Sylvester is back, but he was 2nd on the team in tackles. The secondary will be the strong point of this defense, despite the departure of leading tackler Steve Tate. The Utes were top 25 in yardage yielded last season, and exceptional in pass efficiency defense, allowing just 9 TDs. Corner Brice McCain is the best of the lot, with 11 pass breakups. Sean Smith, R.J. Stanford, and Robert Johnson all started half-time or more last year, and several other players have experience. The secondary has quality and depth and should again be one of the best in the country.
Kicking Game (2 RS): If Brian Johnson isn't the team MVP, then Louis Sakoda is. Sakoda is both an outstanding punter (44.3 average, with 28 inside the 20, and six downed inside the five), and one of the college game's best field goal kickers, hitting 19 of 22 last year.
Recruiting: Recruiting at Utah is actually a bit better, perhaps, post-Urban Meyer; of course, that's also post BCS-bowl year 2004, when the Utes went undefeated with Alex Smith. The last two classes for Kyle Whittingham have been around the average mark, 60th or so. This year is particularly heavy on receivers, with David Reed and Aiona Key (still awaiting JUCO grades) on 2nd string. Sausan Shakerin will see playing time at running back. On defense Dave Kruger, brother of starting DE Paul, is the backup nose tackle.
2008 Season Outlook: Last season started out a mess and ended a success. With Brian Johnson hurt most of the first four games, Utah was erratic, losing to Oregon State and Air Force but beating UCLA 44-6, then losing to UNLV 27-0! With Johnson back but still hurting, they started to find their stride, toppling Louisville 44-35 and Wyoming 50-0 amidst a seven-game winning streak. They played BYU tough in a game that decided the Mountain West championship, but lost a heartbreaker, 17-10. They edged Navy in a tight contest, 35-32, in the Poinsettia Bowl.    

Utah 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	@	Michigan	50%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	*Nevada-Las Vegas	75%	W
9/13	Sat	@	Utah State	74%	W
9/20	Sat	@	*Air Force	68%	W
9/27	Sat	vs.	Weber State	90%	W
10/2	Thu	vs.	Oregon State	61%	W
10/11	Sat	@	*Wyoming	65%	W
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Colorado State	76%	W
11/1	Sat	@	*New Mexico	64%	W
11/6	Thu	vs.	*Texas Christian	60%	W
11/15	Sat	@	*San Diego State	71%	W
11/22	Sat	vs.	*Brigham Young	52%	W
Favored: 12-0  Projected: 8-4

Utah's BCS hopes will live or die in the first and last games of the year. In between, they need only keep their focus and pray against injuries. They are a better team than Michigan, and the Wolverine offense will be brand new when it faces the Utes' sturdy D. Still, it will be their toughest game, on the road in front of 100,000+ rabid fans. After that the path is reasonably clear, barring upsets of course. They are roughly as good as BYU this year, and get them at home. So if they beat Michigan, watch out. The 2008 Utah isn't nearly as good as the 2004 undefeated squad, so I'm inclined to think they'll slip up somewhere even if they get past Michigan. Upsets happen to everyone, and this team doesn't have the leeway in quality to guard against a lapse. The cumulative projection of 8-4 reflects how non-dominant they will be in general. In fact, multiplying the odds through Utah, despite being a favorite or tossup in every game, has just a 1% chance of going undefeated.

Get past the Michigan game though, and those odds double. I figure that 10-2 is a good estimate; they will split Michigan and BYU, and drop an upset somewhere else along the way. 11-1 I can even see. But not 12-0, unless the team stays miraculously injury-free, Brian Johnson fully recaptures his old form, and they get on a roll with only a home game against BYU standing in their way...then they might just do it.

25. Maryland Terrapins

2007 Results:    Record: 6-7    Bowl: lost to Oregon State 21-14 (Emerald Bowl)    Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #42    Success: #53    Combined: #44
The Terrapins are one of the most improved teams in the country, and the highest-rated team who had a losing record last season.
Offense (9 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #58   Adj. Rush Yards: #62    Adj. Pass Yards: #81
Who was more important to Maryland's offense in 2007, running backs Keon Lattimore and Lance Ball (combined 1,563 yards, 25 TDs) or quarterbacks Chris Turner and Jordan Steffy (combined 2,644 yards, 9 TDs)? We'll find out as the former two are gone while the latter return, and coach Ralph Friedgen has named Steffy the starter. The rest of the offense is in good shape; top receivers Darius Heyward-Bay and Isaiah Williams are back with tight end Dan Gronkowski and fullback Cory Jackson. The offensive line is more than solid, with three full-time and two half-time starters filling the five spots.
Defense (5 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #27    Adj. Rush Def: #61    Adj. Pass Def: #58
Maryland's D mysteriously yielded far more in yardage than they did in points; it wasn't red zone defense, which the Terps weren't particularly good at. They had a decent turnover margin (23rd) so that may explain some of it. In any case, the defense has some other unresolved questions, too. The front four are okay, returning full-time starters Jeremy Navarre and Trey Covington. The linebackers are set; though they lose #1 tackler Erin Henderson, they get #2 Dave Philistin and #3 Moise Fokou back. The secondary is the big question mark. Corner Kevin Barnes is a standout, with 4 interceptions, 9 pass break-ups, and 5.5 tackles for loss, but he's the only starter returning. A motley crew of talent will help fill the gaps: USC transfer Antwine Perez; former receivers Nolan Carroll and Terrell Skinner; ex-running backs Jeff Allen and Anthony Wiseman; and track sprinter Richard Taylor. 
Kicking Game (2 RS): Travis Baltz does an adequate job at punter, and returns this season along with very good kicker Obi Egekeze (17 of 23 field goals).
Recruiting: Despite Maryland's erratic results and lack of reputation as a football power, Ralph Friedgen has managed to recruit quite well. Both of the last two classes rank around #40 in the country. They did particulary well at receiver this year, with Kenny Tate, Kevin Dorsey, and Kerry Boykins are rated in the top 50 receivers and the top 150 players in the country. But none might catch a pass this year; with an already-loaded receiver corps, Tate has moved temporarily to safety. Dorsey injured his foot and may redshirt, and Boykins could join him.
2008 Season Outlook: Last season was strictly mediocre, though the team clearly improved as the year went on. The first two wins over I-AA Villanova and Florida International were unimpressive and were followed by a loss to West Virginia and a really disheartening overtime loss to Wake Forest. Two good wins, Rutgers and Georgia Tech, were followed by three losses. Finally they hit their stride against Boston College, winning 42-35, and played FSU well before putting it all together against North Carolina State, winning 37-0. They did better in the Emerald bowl than expected, losing 21-14, which gave them a 6-7 record. Overall their losses were very close, even those against good teams.

Maryland 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Delaware	69%	W
9/6	Sat	@	Middle Tennessee	70%	W
9/13	Sat	vs.	California	57%	W
9/20	Sat	vs.	Eastern Michigan	77%	W
9/27	Sat	@	*Clemson	38%	L
10/4	Sat	@	*Virginia	59%	W
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Wake Forest	56%	W
10/25	Sat	vs.	*North Carolina St.	75%	W
11/6	Thu	@	*Virginia Tech	50%	W
11/15	Sat	vs.	*North Carolina	57%	W
11/22	Sat	vs.	*Florida State	56%	W
11/29	Sat	@	*Boston College	54%	W
Favored: 11-1  Projected: 7-5

This season Maryland is going to sneak up on some teams. Take the first game against Delaware, one of the top teams in I-AA. The game will likely be close, making it look like Maryland isn't very good. Beating Middle Tennessee won't do anything to convince people otherwise. Then, they'll beat California, who will probably be in the top 25 at that point. Losing to Clemson will reassure the nation that the Terps aren't for real...but the upset of Wake Forest will be shocker #2. Virginia Tech is a 50/50 proposition, and Tech might pull it out at home. Three victories later, and Maryland has a 10- or 11-win season on its hands.

Too good to be true? Maybe so. All of the last three will be tough games, as will Cal and Wake, so the cumulative odds say 7-5 is more realistic, or at least a lower bound. I think the team is capable of nine wins this year, provided the defense holds and the quarterback situation works out in a positive fashion.