2008 preview 120: #3 Oklahoma Sooners, #4 South Florida Bulls

SportsRatings is ranking all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August until the season begins. These rankings are meant to reflect how good the teams might be in 2008 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for each team, and two projected records are given: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and another cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty in the predictions. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. (Schedule listings adapted from James Howell's site)

This installment covers teams #3 and #4. To see the full list, click here.

3. Oklahoma Sooners     (pre-season AP #4, USA/Coaches #4)

2007 Results:  Record:11-3  Bowl: L to West Virginia 48-28 (Fiesta Bowl)  Poll finish: #8 AP #8 USA
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #2    Success: #6    Combined: #4
Sam Bradford is all of a sophomore now and wants to take the Sooners all the way to the national championship game—then break the Sooners' post-season losing streak.
Offense (8 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #3   Adj. Rush Yards: #30  Adj. Pass Yards: #38
Last year at this time, Oklahoma's quarterback situation was a big question mark. But then-redshirt freshman Sam Bradford answered all the questions and more, having an incredible year from the very first game and finishing with over 3,000 yards at an almost 70% completion rate with 36 TDs and just 8 interceptions. He ended the season with the #1 QB rating. Now back for his sophomore year, Bradford doesn't have starters Malcolm Kelly (9 TDs) or Joe Jon Finley (4) to throw to anymore, but Juaquin Iglesias (5 TDs), Manuel Johnson (4) and tight end Jermaine Gresham (11) return. The running game loses #1 back Allen Patrick, who had just over 1,000 yards and 8 TDs but DeMarco Murray, also a redshirt freshman, had 764 yards and 13 TDs himself and Chris Brown added 611 and 9 TDs. The offensive line is the lynchpin of this offense, and will ensure its success. All five starters return, all seniors: center Jon Cooper, guards Brandon Walker and Duke Robinson, and tackle Phil Loadholt started the entire year, while Branndon Braxton and Trent Williams started half-time in '06 and '07. This may be the best offensive line in college football. The only questions that remain about this offense are: can it top last year's production? and will the majority of yardage and scoring be achieved via ground or through the air? Despite people associating Oklahoma with Bradford, the offense was actually very balanced in '07. It will be hard for Bradford to match his numbers from last year, especially without Kelly, who took pressure off other receivers. One key receiver can make a quarterback look good (or a good one look even better) and some kind of sophomore slump is almost inevitable for Bradford, if only because he's set such a high bar. But I think the running game can improve with the two solid backs and because defenses, particularly in the Big Twelve, are concentrating on defending the pass. The net effect will be an offense that is just as good as last year's. To remain in the top 5 in scoring offense they need to continue to limit turnovers and score in the red zone, both things they were excellent at in 2007, allowing them to turn middling yardage production into stellar point totals.
Defense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #8   Adj. Rush Def: #19    Adj. Pass Def: #19
The stingy defense from last year has some holes, but not in the front four, where three starters return. End Auston English had 9.5 sacks last year, and has gone through ankle, shoulder, and appendix issues in the last 10 months, but he's scheduled to start the first game. Junior DeMarcus Granger and soph Gerald McCoy are the tackles, and five other players have starting experience on the line. At linebacker, however, they lose the top two tacklers from last season's defense, Curtis Lofton and Lewis Baker. Ryan Reynolds returns, but he is being pushed by JUCO Mike Balogun; presumably they'll find a way that both can be on the field for this unit. The secondary is the big concern, with three full-time starters gone including D.J. Wolfe and Reggie Smith. Nic Harris is back, and is the team's leading returning tackler. And Lendy Holmes, who started at corner in '06 and in the Sooner nickel formation last year, gives them a solid base to work from. But one would logically expect the pass defense to suffer while the rush defense improves; while the net might not suffer, this isn't the best year to have a questionable secondary in the Big Twelve. All in all, the Sooner lose their top four tacklers from last year, but six of the next seven are back.
Kicking Game (0.5 RS): Two punters shared the duties last year, Michael Cohen (42.1 ave) was eventually replaced by Mike Knall (43.7), who returns. To replace kicker Garrett Hartley, they look to redshirt freshman Jimmy Stevens.
Recruiting: The 2007 class was just inside the top 25, while the '08 class ranked in the top 10. This year Bob Stoops did particularly well at linebacker—with the aforementioned Balogun and J.R. Bryant—as well as receiver, with Jameel Owen, Dejuan Miller, and of course the infamous Joshua Jarboe, whose YouTube rap video earned him an unplanned transfer to Troy.
2008 Season Outlook: In retrospect, Oklahoma's first four games in 2007 didn't prepare them well for the Big Twelve season. North Texas and Utah State were among I-A's worst, and Miami finished the season a mediocre team. Only one game was on the road. So when the Sooners met Colorado, the shocking 27-24 loss perhaps shouldn't have been such a big surprise. The team never really dominated again like it did in those early games, but they beat Texas and then, more impressively, Missouri, to go to 6-1. Another road struggle—against Iowa State, of all teams—was followed by two home wins. At 9-1 talk of a national title surfaced again, only to be dashed by Texas Tech (another road game) in which Sam Bradford suffered a concussion and left early. The Sooners rebounded again to win the Big Twelve title, handing Missouri its second loss, 38-17. They went into the Fiesta Bowl as favorites but were spanked by Patrick White and West Virginia, 48-28. Though at moments the best team in the country,  they didn't play well on the road.

Oklahoma 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Tenn.-Chattanooga	100%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	Cincinnati	68%	W
9/13	Sat	@	Washington	70%	W
9/27	Sat	vs.	Texas Christian	76%	W
10/4	Sat	@	*Baylor	83%	W
10/11	Sat	N	*Texas	63%	W
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Kansas	56%	W
10/25	Sat	@	*Kansas State	69%	W
11/1	Sat	vs.	*Nebraska	76%	W
11/8	Sat	@	*Texas A&M	68%	W
11/22	Sat	vs.	*Texas Tech	54%	W
11/29	Sat	@	*Oklahoma State	65%	W
Favored: 12-0  Projected: 8-4

This year's schedule is friendly in two ways: Kansas and Texas Tech are at home. This gives Oklahoma a real chance of going undefeated this year. Though a neutral field Big Twelve title game with Missouri would be close, they can win that, too, and then be in the national championship game. There are other possible losses, as always (Texas, Cincinnati), but the 8-4 cumulative projection is pretty much a worst-case figure. I expect the Sooners to be at least 10-2, probably 11-1, and perhaps undefeated; Missouri has the same expectation this year, so the most likely scenario is the two teams meeting in Kansas City for the right to play for the national title. The Sooner have to get past Graham Harrell and Texas Tech to do so, and with the decimated secondary that could be a challenge; but the offense is up to the task, and everything is in place for a possible title run.

4. South Florida Bulls      (pre-season AP #19, USA/Coaches #21)

2007 Results:  Record:9-4  Bowl: Lost to Oregon 56-21 (Sun Bowl)  Poll finish: #35 AP  #35 USA
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #10     Success: #15     Combined: #11
The Bulls might surprise people this year, as they're getting just marginal recognition for the amount of talent that returns on both sides of the ball.
Offense (10 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #8    Adj. Rush Yards: #22    Adj. Pass Yards: #54
Even if you don't hear as much about him, Matt Grothe is another one of those quarterbacks—like Tebow, White, and even LeFevour—that leads his team in rushing (872 net yards, 10 TDs) while passing well, too (2,670 yards, 14 TDs). If he reduces his interceptions (14) a bit and USF has a big run, you'll hear his name mentioned for the Heisman, though, because the Bulls are loaded with returning talent: Four starters on the offensive line, seniors Ryan Schmidt, Marc Dile, and Jake Griffin and sophomore Zach Hermann; five of the six top ground gainers including Mike Ford (12 TDs) and Benjamin Williams (6); and the top four receivers, consisting of Carlton Mitchell, Jessie Hester, and Taurus Johnson (4 TDs apiece) and starting tight end Cedric Hill. It's hard to find a weakness. The open right tackle spot will be filled by Matt Huners, who started in 2006. The receiving corps I listed doesn't even include returning starter Marcus Edwards, or A.J. Love, last year's #10 receiver who is now listed as a fill-in starter. Beyond the starting lineup, enough lettermen return to fill the 2nd string and most of the 3rd. In every aspect, the Bulls ought to be as good or better than the top ten offense they had in 2007, which is a scary thought.
Defense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #26      Adj. Rush Def: #32     Adj. Pass Def: #42
The 'man' on defense is George Selvie, who is every bit as important to this defense as Glenn Dorsey was to LSU's. A candidate for defensive player of the year, Selvie had an amazing 31.5 tackles for loss last year, including 14.5 sacks. He returns to the front four with Aaron Harris and Jarriet Blue, who had 9.5 and 6 tackles-for-loss respectively. In other words, together they have half of Selvie's total, and their numbers are considered good! The Bulls are just as strong at linebacker: #1 tackler Tyrone McKenzie returns, as does Brouce Mompremier, and though they lose star Ben Moffitt they have an abundance of talent at the position. The secondary, which gave up moderate yardage but ended drives with interceptions, loses the two best, Trae Williams and Mike Jenkins (9 int. between them). But the safety position is solid with Nate Allen (4 int.) and Carlton Williams returning, and '06 starter Danny Verpaele back as well. The replacement corners are experienced and should do well, but teams will probably try to pass against the Bulls to test them. In all, five of the top six tacklers from 2007 return.
Kicking Game ('2' RS): If Grothe is the key to the offense and Selvie to the D, then Delbert Alvarado is the key to the kicking game, handling both punts and placekicking. As a punter he's solid, averaging 41.6 yards per kick, but he's had trouble as a kicker though he improved markedly in the second half of the season. He made 19 of 29 field goals and 52 of 53 PATs.
Recruiting: Despite all the press implying that the Bulls are stealing every good player from the grasp of the Floridas, Miamis, and FSUs, USF's recruiting classes normally are just inside the top half in the nation. The majority of their recruits are still the castoffs and unwanteds of the bigger powers, though lately they are scoring many bigger names. This year, with so many players returning on both offense and defense, there are no true freshmen starting or on the 2nd string going into 2008. True frosh QB B.J. Daniels will see action this year according to head coach George Levitt.
2008 Season Outlook: Every college football fan heard about South Florida last year—the team that ridiculously was ranked #2, before subsequently crashing out of sight and showing how stupid the pollster were. The truth was that the Bulls deserved that #2 ranking at the time. At 6-0, they had wins over Auburn and West Virginia, which meant there was more quality on their résumé than anyone else had at the time. They'd also beaten Florida Atlantic and UCF, both bowl-bound squads. In fact, all four of those teams won their bowl games, and three of the four won their conferences in 2007.

The three losses that followed their 6-0 start were depressing, but were hardly bad games. USF lost at Rutgers by a field goal, at Connecticut by a touchdown, and to Cincinnati by 5 points. All good teams, all close games, but to the majority of the nation's football fans, those opponents were unestablished programs, so at 6-3 USF fell back under the radar. They finished 9-3 with three strong performances, but drew crippled Oregon for the Sun Bowl. Perhaps disappointed at what could have been, feeling slighted in terms of bowl game prestige, and/or a bit overconfident that Oregon was a shell of its former self, the Bulls came out like lambs and got slaughtered, 56-21. Clearly that game has left a bad taste in the players' mouths, and they want another chance to have the season they believe they should have had last year.

USF 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Tennessee-Martin	100%	W
9/5	Fri	@	Central Florida	73%	W
9/13	Sat	vs.	Kansas	56%	W
9/20	Sat	@	Florida International	96%	W
9/27	Sat	@	North Carolina St.	83%	W
10/2	Thu	vs.	*Pittsburgh	69%	W
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Syracuse	95%	W
10/25	Sat	@	*Louisville	76%	W
10/30	Thu	@	*Cincinnati	61%	W
11/15	Sat	vs.	*Rutgers	70%	W
11/22	Sat	vs.	*Connecticut	67%	W
12/6	Sat	@	*West Virginia	49%	L
Favored: 11-1  Projected: 9-3

USF in 2008 plays three of the weakest teams and two of the toughest. Between Tennessee-Martin, FIU, and Syracuse, they essentially have six bye weeks on the schedule. An early game against Kansas will be tough, but get past it and the final game—West Virginia in Morgantown—could be for the Big East title and possibly more. The Big East has enough tough teams this year—Pitt, Cincinnati, UConn—that USF could lose three games this year, but they might go undefeated and be in the national championship game. And even if they lost that one, they'd still probably be ranked #2 in the nation—this time at the end of the season.