2008 Pre-season Top 25: taking schedule into account

There are two basic philosophies (maybe three) used when making a pre-season top 25. The first philosophy is to simply rank the teams based on how good you think the are going into the new season. That's Philosophy A. A similar philosophy, which we could call Philosophy AA, is to rank the teams based on how good you think they will be at the end of the season. This might give extra weight to teams that have good, but young, talent. Philosophies A and AA aren't all that different—the team's schedule isn't taken into account for either.

The other way to rank teams is to rank them by how many games you think they'll win. This takes schedule into account; quality teams that have a difficult schedule don't make the top ten, and some questionable teams with cupcake schedules might make the top 25. As a corrollary to wins and losses, projected final poll placement might be used. If a team starts at #5, they'll likely finish higher than an unranked team that is seen to be just as strong, has the same schedule strength, and ends up with the same record.

For comparison's sake, here is the SportsRatings 2008 pre-season top 25—which does not take schedule into account—followed by a projected end-of-season top 25 if every game went as planned with no upsets.

SportsRatings 2008 pre-season top 25

#   Team            AP   USA
1.  Ohio State       2    3  
2.  Florida          5    5
3.  Oklahoma         4    4
4.  South Florida   19   21    
5.  Texas Tech      12   14   
6.  Missouri         6    7  
7.  West Virginia    8    8  
8.  Kansas          14   13
9.  Georgia          1    1   
10. Oregon          21   20
11. Clemson          9    9      
12. LSU              7    6  
13. Texas           11   10      
14. South Carolina  --   --   
15. Southern Cal     3    2 
16. Auburn          10   11  
17. Penn State      22   22
18. Arizona St      15   16  
19. Connecticut     --   --
20. Tennessee       18   18 
21. Cincinnati      --   -- 
22. Brigham Young   16   17
23. Alabama         24   --   
24. Utah            --   --   
25. Maryland        --   --  

Teams in AP and USA that didn't make it:
26. Pittsburgh      25   --
31. Wisconsin       13   12
33. Wake Forest     23   23
34. Michigan        --   24
36. Virginia Tech   17   15
38. Fresno State    --   25
43. Illinois        20   19

Now, starting with the pre-season AP poll and following the season through as projected by my pre-season rankings, here are the possible rankings just before the bowl games:

                          pre-season   schedule
#   Team            rec    AP   SR     strength
1.  Ohio State      12-0    2    1       43
2.  Oklahoma        13-0    4    3       16 (1)
3.  Florida         13-0    5    2       15 (2)
4.  West Virginia   12-0    8    7       25
5.  Clemson         13-0    9   11       52 (25)
6.  USC             11-1    3   15       10
7.  Utah            12-0   --   24       79
8.  Oregon          11-1   21   10       34
9.  Missouri        12-1    6    6       55 (15)
10. Penn State      11-1   22   17       48
11. South Florida   11-1   19    4       49
12. South Carolina  10-2   --   14       13
13. Georgia         10-2    1    9        2
14. Maryland        11-1   --   25       47
15. Boise State     11-1   --   39      109
16. Brigham Young   11-1   16   22       75
17. Wake Forest     10-2   23   33       63
18. Arizona         10-2   --   27       38
19. Kansas           9-3   14    8       18
20. Texas Tech      10-2   12    5       35
21. Tulsa           12-1   --   56      119 (107)
22. Ball State      12-1   --   57      117 (105)
23. Auburn          10-3   10   16       27 (3)
24. Fresno State    10-2   --   38       87
25. Michigan         9-3   --   34       30

Several things have happened in the chart above. First, an absolutely unrealistic number of teams have gone undefeated. That's because there are no upsets in the projection; everything works like clockwork. Which is ridiculous of course, but to make a projection based on the starting AP poll you have to make assumptions about who is going to win each game. The actual number of undefeated teams varies; normally before the bowls there are 1 or 2, though last year there were none (and only two teams with one loss), and in 2004 there were five.

The second thing to note is that Florida, despite being #2 in my system and going undefeated, ends up #3. This is the effect of starting position in the AP poll. Though Florida would have a chance of jumping Oklahoma in this scenario, West Virginia and Clemson will be out of luck if Ohio State and Oklahoma go undefeated. So while my #1 and #2 teams are Ohio State and Florida, it is more likely to be Ohio State and Oklahoma at the end, with the rest of the team's chances at being in the BCS final decreasing as you go down the list.

Schedule is everything when it comes to fighting your way into the poll. Boise State, Tulsa, and Ball State all have a good chance to end up in the top 25, despite very easy schedules. Or rather, because of very easy schedules. Tulsa and Ball State are the #56 and #57 team in my pre-season rankings, but have the 2nd and 4th easiest schedules in the country. Utah and BYU also have moderately easy schedules, while being good teams themselves, which is why one or the other could make it to a BCS bowl. Conversely, a team like Kansas, which is ranked even higher in my rankings (#8) than the AP (#14) will be lucky to finish in the top 25 with their schedule.

The 2nd numbers after some of the schedule strength ratings add the team's conference title game (as projected) into the strength rating. Teams from the SEC and Big Twelve face the prospect of an extra loss, and lower ranking, from these games. Any team that goes undefeated this year in the SEC or Big Twelve will be much more deserving than Ohio State (even with a win over USC) because of this extra game, that will make their schedules the toughest in the country.

Comments

[James]

HAHAHAAAAAAAAAAAAA CLEMSON BIT IT BAD!!!! CANT WAIT TO PLAY THEM THIS SEASON NOW!!!!!!

GO TERPS!!!!