2008 pre-season rankings: #20 Tennessee; #21 Cincinnati; #22 BYU

SportsRatings is ranking all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August until the season begins. These rankings are meant to reflect how good the teams might be in 2008 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for each team, and two projected records are given: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and another cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty in the predictions. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. (Schedule listings adapted from James Howell's site)

This installment covers teams from #20 to #22. To see the full list, click here.

20. Tennessee Volunteers     (pre-season AP #18, USA-coaches #18)

2007 Results:  Record: 10-4   Bowl: beat Wisconsin 21-17 (Outback) Poll finish: #12 AP  #12 USA 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #23    Success: #8    Combined: #18
The Vols are poised to have another successful year; how will they do in the logjammed SEC?
Offense (8 RS)     '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #21    Adj. Rush Yards: #54    Adj. Pass Yards: #22
If Tennessee uncovers even a moderately good quarterback, the offense is ready to shine. Four full-time starters return on the line, including standouts Anthony Parker at guard (a 2-year starter and All-American candidate) and tackle Chris Scott. With Ramon Foster at right tackle, Josh McNeil at center, and Jacques McLendon (a half-time starter last year) at right guard, this one of the best offensive lines in the nation. Arian Foster leads the charge in the running game, coming off a 1,193 yard, 12 TD season; backup Montario Hardesty's ankle is healthy this year, too. The three top receivers return: 1,000 yard receiver (yes, exactly 1,000 yards) Lucas Taylor (5 TDs), Austin Rogers (4 TDs), and Josh Briscoe (6). At tight end Chris Brown is gone, as is Brad Cottam, and Cottam's brother Jeff is out for half the season due to back surgery; but just in time, FSU transfer Brandon Warren has been declared eligible to play. The only one who can't be easily replaced is Eric Ainge, Tennessee's quarterback of the last four years (full-time the last two). His 31 TDs and 3,500 yards were crucial to the Vols' success last season, and thus far backup Jonathan Crompton hasn't shown much. He'll have a chance to prove the naysayers wrong behind a line that allowed just 4 sacks all last year, but even should he prove mediocre, as long as he avoids big mistakes he'll do a service to the team.
Defense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #45    Adj. Rush Def: #31    Adj. Pass Def: #99
The defensive line loses two starters, but still looks solid: tackles Dan Williams and Demonte Bolden return, and end Robert Ayers is just as good. The other end, sophomore Ben Martin, has yet to live up to his recruiting buzz but is a starter now, so he must be doing something right. Only one starter returns at linebacker, however; team leading tackler Jerod Mayo and Ryan Karl depart, but #2 tackler Rico McCoy is back. The secondary is loaded and you need a scorecard to keep track of the players.  Brent Vinson and Eric Berry (5 int.) were both starters as true freshmen. DeAngelo Willingham started 1/2 of last year's games, as did Marsalous Johnson before his year ended in injury. Antonio Gaines also began 2007 as a starter and was injured, while Demetrice Morley started in '06 but was ineligible last season. All this talent should vastly improve the Vols' poor passing defense stats, and overall, though they lose 4 of their top 6 tacklers from last season, the D will be as good or better in '08.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Daniel Lincoln is a talented kicker but was streaky his freshman year, hitting 21 of 29 field goals last season. Punter Brent Colquitt returns for his senior year after averaging a good 41.6 (and a very good 36.7 net). But Colquitt is suspended for the first five games of the season (DUI) allowing soph Chad Cunningham an early audition for next year's starting role.
Recruiting: Phil Fulmer's 2007 class was one of the nation's best, behind just Florida and USC. The 2008 class was only #36, but you can't win 'em all. Of course, after recruiting over 30 players in 2007 they took less than 20 this time around, featuring running back Austin Johnson and JUCO linebacker Gerald Williams, who was still awaiting course grades days before the opener.
2008 Season Outlook: In the end 2007 was another season that wasn't quite good enough. It didn't help that the Volunteers started 1-2, and were trounced by Florida 59-20. Getting back on track with a win over Georgia, 35-14, they lost momentum at Alabama, 41-17. At 4-3 the team was written off by most in the SEC race, but UT reeled off five straight wins, two of them in overtime and one by a point, to make it to the SEC title game. There they battled LSU valiently but lost, 21-14. They withstood a late Wisconsin charge in the Outback bowl and won, 21-17, to have another 10 win season, their fourth this decade. 

Tennessee 2008 schedule & forecast
9/1	Mon	@	UCLA	53%	W
9/13	Sat	vs.	Alabama-Birmingham	86%	W
9/20	Sat	vs.	*Florida	33%	L
9/27	Sat	@	*Auburn	41%	L
10/4	Sat	vs.	Northern Illinois	82%	W
10/11	Sat	@	*Georgia	38%	L
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi State	61%	W
10/25	Sat	vs.	*Alabama	52%	W
11/1	Sat	@	*South Carolina	43%	L
11/8	Sat	vs.	Wyoming	73%	W
11/22	Sat	@	*Vanderbilt	60%	W
11/29	Sat	vs.	*Kentucky	58%	W
Favored: 8-4  Projected: 7-5

This year the SEC is once again pretty tough. And Tennessee isn't quite one of the elite teams. Florida at home, Auburn and Georgia on the road, and South Carolina on the road may be losses. Alabama at home could give them another loss and put them 7-5, but I think 8-4 is likely. That would mean 4-4 in conference play, which won't put them in the title game, so repeating 10 wins might be prohibitive. What would change that is excellent quarterback play—then it might all come together, and who knows what could happen?

21. Cincinnati Bearcats

2007 Results:   Record: 10-3   Bowl: beat S. Miss 31-21 (Papajohns.com)  Poll finish: #17 AP #20 USA
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #12    Success: #18    Combined: #12
Cincy moves on without Ben Mauk, but the rest of the team was good last year, too.
Offense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #15   Adj. Rush Yards: #82  Adj. Pass Yards: #13
Will he return? Will he ever give it up? Those were the off-season questions for the Bearcats. Last year's superstar, Ben Mauk (3,121 yards, 31 TDs) appealed to the NCAA for a 6th year of eligibility; denied, he tried a different appeal; denied again, he appealed the denial; denied yet again, he sued the NCAA. A judge told them to work it out, and the NCAA denied him one more time before saying that was a mistake and they were still considering it. Psyche! They denied him again days later. At this point it's assumed he won't play for the 'Cats again, which is too bad—with him, they'd be ranked several slots higher. But don't shortchange Dustin Grutza, who takes over the offense. He started for two seasons before Mauk arrived, and though he didn't dazzle back then, he was in a completely different system. His limited playing time last year showed potential (71% complete, 4 TDs, 0 INTs), and he's very familiar with his teammates. Some figured Demetrius Jones would win the QB spot, but he was recovering from an injury, and frankly—high school touting notwithstanding—he sucked in his one start at Notre Dame. Don't expect Ben Mauk II from Grutza but he should be okay. As for the rest of the offense, the starting receivers are all back and ready—Dominick Goodman (8 TDs) and Marcus Barnett (13 TDs) both had over 800 receiving yards while Marshwan Gilyard added 536. The slimmed-down-for-speed offensive line is in pretty good shape with three starters back and full-time starter from '06, Jeff Linkenback, returning this year. The running game was meager last season and loses the top two backs. Mauk came within a yard of being the #1 rusher sans sack totals; if he manages to return, he'll give the rushing totals a boost, too!
Defense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #15   Adj. Rush Def: #13    Adj. Pass Def: #113
The Bearcat defense was stingy on points and against the run in '07, but gave up a lot of passing yards, 8th most in the NCAA, to be exact, when adjusted for opposition. Why this didn't translate into a lot of points for their opponents was due to their 26 interceptions, best in the country. They were also top 10 in total sacks. So their dismal yardage ranking above is misleading—the defense was solid across all areas when it counted. This season they return two starters from each section of their 4-3. Terrill Byrd (8 sacks) and Adam Hoppel (4) on the line; Ryan Manalac (#3 tackler) and Corey Smith (#2) at linebacker; another Smith, DeAngelo (8 interceptions), and Mike Mickens (6) in the secondary, both at corner. The big losses are #1 tackler Haruki Nakamura and Anthony Williams, both at safety, and Anthony Hoke (13 sacks) up front. The gaps at safety are a concern, but with their interception kings back at corner, the bend-don't-break pass defense should improve on its yardage numbers while the rushing defense will still be solid.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Punter Ken Huber was best in the country last year, both raw average (46.9) and net (39.6), placing over 1/3 of his punts inside the 20. Jake Rodgers is a less accomplished kicker, but he should improve in his sophomore year.
Recruiting: Brian Kelly has dramatically improved recruiting at basketball-first Cincinnati, with the 2008 class ranking above average for the country. This year's star may be Isaiah Pead, who could start at running back where they need help. Receiver D.J. Woods appears to be okay after having a medical scare that held him out of practice for a while.
2008 Season Outlook: The 'Cats started with a bang last year, crushing their first two opponents 59-3 and 34-3, the latter being Oregon State, who finished 9-4. The blowouts continued, and they were 6-0 after beating Rutgers 28-23 on the road. Like the other undefeated Big East teams at the time, they hit the skids for a bit, losing to Louisville 28-24 and at Pitt, 24-17, and most of the country wrote them off as overrated, not legit because of their conference, etc. They bounced back to beat South Florida and Connecticut, but since those teams were tagged with the same "flash in the pan" label, few cared. Their 28-23 loss to West Virginia meant all 3 of their losses were within a touchdown. Consigned to a minor bowl, they went through the motions and beat Southern Miss unimpressively, 31-21, in the tradition-heavy Pappajohns.com Bowl. They did get some respect, though, in the form of a post-season top 25 ranking.

Cincinnati 2008 schedule & forecast
8/28	Thu	vs.	Eastern Kentucky	85%	W
9/6	Sat	@	Oklahoma	33%	L
9/20	Sat	vs.	Miami (Ohio)	74%	W
9/27	Sat	@	Akron	73%	W
10/3	Fri	@	Marshall	69%	W
10/11	Sat	vs.	*Rutgers	56%	W
10/25	Sat	@	*Connecticut	46%	L
10/30	Thu	vs.	*South Florida	39%	L
11/8	Sat	@	*West Virginia	35%	L
11/14	Fri	@	*Louisville	62%	W
11/22	Sat	vs.	*Pittsburgh	55%	W
11/29	Sat	vs.	*Syracuse	81%	W
12/6	Sat	@	Hawaii	63%	W
Favored: 9-4  Projected: 8-5

This year the Bearcats play 13 games, one of them being an unfortunate road game at Oklahoma. Though it's a great thing for college football and an opportunity to get some real respect, if they lose it will be another lazy argument for "the Big East is weak" and they probably won't win in Norman. They've also got a logjam of games against the Big East's best in late October/early November, then four games they should win. Though I don't see any especially weak wins, I might have to go with the cumulative projections since they lose their star quarterback. 8-5 is certainly a lot more likely than 10-3. If Mauk returns, we can talk about 10-3.

22. Brigham Young Cougars     (pre-season AP #16, USA-coaches #17)

2007 Results:   Record: 11-2   Bowl: beat UCLA 17-16 (Las Vegas Bowl) Poll finish: #14 AP  #14 USA 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #25    Success: #17    Combined: #23
BYU is in the hunt for the Mountain West title, and possibly for a BCS berth, but a weakened defense might be their achilles' heel.
Offense (9 RS)     '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #39    Adj. Rush Yards: #58    Adj. Pass Yards: #10
The Cougar offense returns nearly intact from 2007 for all intents and purposes, losing center Sete Aulai and two part-time starters at receiver and running back. Four monstrous starters—all 330 lbs.—return on the offensive line, led by guard Ray Feinga and tackle Dallas Reynolds. The running game, fairly average last season, returns a well-above-average back, Harvey Unga (1,227 yards and 13 TDs) but backup Manese Tonga (8 TDs) is ineligible this season. Along with Unga, tight end Dennis Pitta (813 yds, 5 TDs) and receivers Austin Collie (946 yds, 8 TDs) and Michael Reed (4 TDs) are BYU's four top receivers from '07, all back for '08. Throwing to them once again will be quarterback Max Hall (3,848 yards, 26 TDs, 12 INT). Behind the huge, experienced line, the talented offense will once again flourish.
Defense (3 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #22    Adj. Rush Def: #5    Adj. Pass Def: #23
The Cougar defense was one of the most underrated in 2008. They shut down the run and while the teams they played were often pass-happy, they typically had much less success against the Cougars. This year there are quite a few losses. The excellent rush defense might be the least affected; two of the starters in the front three are back, ends Ian Dulan and Jan Jorgensen (13.5 sacks!), and Russell Tialavea is back from an injury last year at nose tackle. One of four linebackers in the 3-4 returns, David Nixon; gone are the team's two top tacklers from last year, Kelly Poppinga and Bryan Kehl. The worst situation is the secondary, as no starters are back. Put another way, BYU hauled in 16 interceptions last year; only one player who intercepted a single pass is back on the defense. Senior free safety Kellen Fowley did start a few games last year, so he is the most experienced of the corps. I expect BYU's excellent yardage stats from last season to take a hit; though the rushing stats won't be in the top ten, they should still be okay, but the passing stats are anybody's guess.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Adequate punter C.J. Santiago returns, as does kicker Mitch Payne, but for Payne adequate might not be good enough as the Cougars bring in one of the top-rated freshman kickers in the country, Justin Sorensen. Sorensen has a much stronger leg and should at a minimum take over kickoffs and longer-range field goals.
Recruiting: BYU recruiting is an interesting case; players go on Morman missions, then return, so many are much older than normal for the NCAA. Many recruits come from the South Pacific, and year-to-year there can be big fluctuations in a class' quality. The last few years have been slightly above average (2007) and slightly below average (2008). This year several JUCO transfers pad the linebacking corps, while two redshirts from '07 (Jordan Pendleton and G Pittman) will help out in the depleted secondary.
2008 Season Outlook: 2007 was nearly 2006 redux. Start out 1-2. Win ten straight and claim the Mountain West title. Beat a Pac-10 team in the Las Vegas Bowl. The details were different, though; the Cougars beat Arizona and lost to Tulsa this time around, and had a much tougher time in the bowl game, beating a team they'd lost to earlier in the year. While BYU's win streaks are impressive, they have the adverse effect of adding to the perception that the BCS conferences are far superior to others in Division I-A. During their two 11-2 season, the Cougars are 16-0 against Mountain West opponents, and just 3-3 against the BCS (3-2 against the Pac-10).

BYU 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Northern Iowa	66%	W
9/6	Sat	@	Washington	56%	W
9/13	Sat	vs.	UCLA	63%	W
9/20	Sat	vs.	*Wyoming	72%	W
10/3	Fri	@	Utah State	74%	W
10/11	Sat	vs.	*New Mexico	71%	W
10/16	Thu	@	*Texas Christian	54%	W
10/25	Sat	vs.	*Nevada-Las Vegas	74%	W
11/1	Sat	@	*Colorado State	70%	W
11/8	Sat	vs.	*San Diego State	79%	W
11/15	Sat	@	*Air Force	69%	W
11/22	Sat	@	*Utah	47%	L
Favored: 11-1  Projected: 8-4

This year there are two Pac-10 teams on the regular season schedule, and I think BYU will beat both of them, including UCLA in the rubber match at home. Their other non-conf games are creampuff Utah State and I-AA Northern Iowa, who is probably the 5th best team on the Cougar's slate, but they play in Provo. Then after clearing out the Mountain West once again, the Cougars face Utah, in Salt Lake City, and get their first loss for an 11-1 record. That's by the book; there could be upsets along the way, and they might drop a few early games again. But 8-4 is probably as poorly as they could do, defensive questions notwithstanding. If the D comes together the way the offense surely should, then the Cougars will probably have another 11-2 year, one way or another. But I think the defense is too questionable for them to go undefeated. Look for lots of wins, with high scores on both sides.