2008 pre-season 120: Ohio State Buckeyes are #1, Florida Gators #2

SportsRatings is ranking all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August until the season begins. These rankings are meant to reflect how good the teams might be in 2008 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for each team, and two projected records are given: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and another cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty in the predictions. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. (Schedule listings adapted from James Howell's site)

This installment covers teams #1 and #2. To see the full list, click here.

1. Ohio State Buckeyes     (pre-season AP #2, USA/Coaches #3)

2007 Results:  Record:11-2  Bowl: Lost to LSU 38-24 (BCS championship) Poll finish: #5 AP #4 USA
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #9    Success: #9    Combined: #10
No one wants to put the Buckeyes where they belong: at #1 to begin the season. Everybody acknowledges they belong in the top three, as good as they were last year and with the talent they return, but the top spot is by and large denied them. AP has them #2, the coaches #3, and various publications pick another team to claim the top spot, be it Georgia, Florida, or USC. Part of the reason is no one wants the Buckeyes to be good again and play for the national championship. It's getting old. The other problem is that their last two championship game debacles have given them the rep of a team that can't win the big game. But this year they're good enough to win it all, and are really quite far ahead of the rest of the pack.
Offense (9 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #36   Adj. Rush Yards: #21  Adj. Pass Yards: #97
Last year's problem was lack of offense. The defense was of a championship caliber, but the offense was mediocre, with a strong rushing game but little passing game to speak of. Part of that was the fault of Todd Boeckman, who had several poor games and almost cost the Buckeyes a victory against Michigan State. In his defense, some pointed out that his stats approached Troy Smith's in the latter's Heisman year, which was a bit of a stretch, though his 14 interceptions clearly exceeded Smith's total. But overall Boeckman directed the team well, completing 64% of his attempts for 2,379 yards and 25 TDs. A year wiser, Boeckman will limit his mistakes and interceptions. He will also be spelled by the nation's #1 recruit, Terrell Pryor, who throws a curve at opponents scouting the Buckeyes. Starting receivers Brian Robiskie (11 TDs) and Brian Hartline (6) return as well as tight end Rory Nichol and a slew of other wide outs, so the passing game should improve. But the heart of the offense is Chris "Beanie" Wells, who ran for 1,609 yards his sophomore season, and was a breakaway threat every time he touched the ball. He was also hurt often, which makes his numbers all the more impressive. The offensive line returns four full-time starters, seniors Alex Boone, Steve Rehring, and Ben Persons and junior Jim Cordle. The offense returns almost all key players from last year and adds Pryor into the mix. Some have speculated that Pryor will be used like Tim Tebow was his freshman year with Chris Leak, but I don't think he'll see quite that much action. He'll get a lot of time during Ohio State's first two (exhibition) games, but after that he'll be a mop-up. I just don't think Jim Tressel will unleash him, considering that he reigned in Troy Smith, turning him from a dual-threat running quarterback to a mobile but standard passer. Wells' legs will drive the offense, and Boeckman will have somewhat better stats and be trusted to keep things running on an even keel, with Pryor making late appearances to appease the fans once the outcome is not in doubt.
Defense (9 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #1     Adj. Rush Def: #2      Adj. Pass Def: #1
The defense is the only reason last year's Buckeye squad overachieved and made it to the BCS championship. The team was young and the offense mediocre, but so was the schedule, and defense alone could win games. Both the rushing and passing defense were stellar, with few breakdowns, and the scoring defense the best in the nation—7 teams were held to single digits. The rushing defense, corrected for opposition, was 2nd only to Oregon State's. The front four loses Vernon Gholston, perhaps the team's best player, who had 14 sacks last year; if he had returned, it would have been hard for any pundit not to put the Bucks on top, but now he's the convenient excuse. His absence hurts the pass rush most, and between Doug Worthington, Cameron Heyward, Nader Abdallah, Todd Denlinger, and Lawrence Wilson (who started at the beginning of '07 and promptly broke his leg) the front four will stop the run nearly as effectively as last year (Worthington is facing suspension for a DUI, but given the actions against other players in the off-season, he'll miss the first two games at most. Update: he won't miss any games at all). And with All-American and #1 tackler James Laurinaitis back at linebacker along with #2 tackler Marcus Freeman, you can make a case that they'll be just as good. To make up for the loss of Larry Grant, all of last year's immediate backup linebackers return (on the defense as a whole, upwards of 90% of the 2nd and 3rd string is back). The secondary returns in full a group that shut down most teams last season: Corners Donald Washington (suspended the first two games) and Malcolm Jenkins (4 int.) and safeties Kurt Coleman and Anderson Russell. How can they improve from #1? They could intercept more passes for one thing, as OSU had a negative turnover margin last season. And as noted, without Gholston the pass rush will be diminished, so opposing quarterbacks may have more time this year. Still, there's no reason they can't repeat as yardage rank champions.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Kicker Ryan Pretorius is back; he hit 21 of 25 attempts last season including 6 of 7 from 40+. Punter A.J. Trepasso wasn't quite as great, but had a decent 41.5 average and 36.7 net. 
Recruiting: Both Michigan and Ohio State were having great luck recruiting for 2008, the Wolverines clearly in the top five and the Buckeyes just inside the top ten. But then Terrell Pryor, the #1 QB and #1 overall in the class, decommitted from Michigan. Weeks later he committed to Ohio State. That one move dropped Michigan to #6, and propped Ohio State up to #5. They've since switched places, as a couple of Buckeye recruits didn't come through, but the damage was done—it was a major moral victory for Ohio State. Pryor, 6' 6", has passed and rushed for more than 4,000 yards each in his high school career in Pennsylvania. Fans are understandably drooling over the prospect of the next four years, but this season may be a disappointment in that regard. Tressel and his sweater-vest aren't likely to turn much of the offense over to a freshman when there's a proven senior at the helm, running a safe, conservative system. Already the depth chart just released puts Pryor at third string, which may not hold for long but is still an indication of what the coach is thinking. As I've said before, Pryor made a big mistake in dumping the Wolverines, where he would have started immediately under a coach who runs an offense perfect for him. But although I don't see Pryor given that much chance to shine this year, the next three will be intriguing, to see whether Tressel changes Pryor's style or vice versa.
2008 Season Outlook: Last season wasn't supposed to be a national championship run, but in the end the Buckeyes came as close as they did in 2006. The wins over Youngstown and Akron revealed one thing: the defense was damn good, giving up just 6 points in the two games. Wins over Washington (who scored 14 points), Minnesota (7), Purdue (7), and Kent State (3) said the same thing. The Michigan State game almost demonstrated how late mistakes can blow a game you've dominated throughout, but the Buckeyes won, 24-17. They took out Penn State and Wisconsin before falling to Illinois at home, in a controversial loss where the defense inexplicable gave up 100 more rushing yards than they had before due to being unable to contain Juice Williams, who passed for 4 TDs. Next week they went into Michigan and the defense took care of business, holding the Wolves to 3 points and less than 100 yards of offense. The Buckeyes found themselves in the national championship game for the second straight year, this time as underdogs however. They did better, and led for a while, but LSU was too much for them. The offense couldn't keep up, and it hurt the defense, which had another subpar performance. It wasn't really fair, though, as LSU was meant to be there, and OSU was supposed to wait until 2008.

Ohio State 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Youngstown State	99%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	Ohio	100%	W
9/13	Sat	@	Southern California	66%	W
9/20	Sat	vs.	Troy	85%	W
9/27	Sat	vs.	*Minnesota	96%	W
10/4	Sat	@	*Wisconsin	72%	W
10/11	Sat	vs.	*Purdue	88%	W
10/18	Sat	@	*Michigan State	76%	W
10/25	Sat	vs.	*Penn State	76%	W
11/8	Sat	@	*Northwestern	86%	W
11/15	Sat	@	*Illinois	76%	W
11/22	Sat	vs.	*Michigan	81%	W
Favored: 12-0  Projected: 10-2

Ohio State has the best team in the country, and three virtual byes on the schedule, so it's easy to envision an undefeated season. The obvious stumbling block is the road game in Pasedena against the Trojans. My system ranks USC a lot lower than most people do, and OSU a bit higher, so the game comes out clearly in the Buckeyes' favor. In reality, it will be an interesting matchup, particularly USC's offense vs. the Buckeye defense. This is the Rose Bowl that would have happened last year if every team under the sun hadn't lost in the last two weeks.

If the Buckeyes get past the third game, it's hard to see them losing. Wisconsin, Michigan State, Penn State, Illinois, and Michigan will all take their shots. The cumulative odds stack up to a couple of losses, but I see it this way: beat USC and go 12-0, and go to the national championship game. Or lose to USC and go 11-1, and under no circumstances go to the national championship game. It's that simple. Fans (and voters) won't tolerate another knife-through-butter Buckeye team mowing down the Big Ten and folding in the title game. But if they beat USC they'll discard all that baggage and acquire a new reputation. And this time, they should win it all. Three's a charm for the Buckeyes? We'll find out.

2. Florida Gators      (pre-season AP #5, USA/Coaches #5)

2007 Results:  Record:9-4  Bowl: Lost to Michigan 41-35 (Capitol One)  Poll finish: #13 AP  #16 USA
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #6     Success: #14     Combined: #7
Florida had the opposite profile of Ohio State in '07—the offense was #1 while the defense was marginal. But there will be improvement on that side of the ball. The Gators only lost close games to good teams last season, and have a load of talent back. If any team can run through the SEC schedule this year, it's Florida.
Offense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #1    Adj. Rush Yards: #17    Adj. Pass Yards: #24
Florida had the top scoring offense while their yardage profiles were relatively pedestrian, but they were in the top ten in fewest turnovers, #21 in red zone percentage, and had one of the country's best return men in Brandon James, all of which adds up to bridge the gap. One big reason for the low turnover total was of course Tim Tebow, who, while passing for 32 TDs and rushing for 23 more, threw just 6 interceptions and only lost just one fumble (officially he had none but I count the Georgia game snap he bobbled). That's 6 or 7 turnovers for 55 touchdowns. He was #2 in passing efficiency, threw for 3,286 yards, and lead the team in rushing with 895 yards; if anyone can win the Heisman twice in a row anymore it will be him. His stats will probably sink a bit in 2008, because first of all, how can he duplicate them? And also because coach Urban Meyer wants to protect him a bit more by having other alternatives in the ground game. Percy Harvin is the other main cog on offense, rushing for and catching over 800 yards each (10 TDs total), and some believe he may get this year's Heisman a la Bush following Leinart (which I doubt, as Tebow will still have more impressive stats than Harvin). As for actual running backs, as opposed to QBs and WRs running the ball, Kestahn Moore was tops with 580 yards and 6 TDs last season, but either Chris Rainey (another fast receiver type) or USC transfer Emmanuel Moody might get the nod. The Gators lose receiver Andre Caldwell (7 TDs) and tight end Cornelius Ingram (7 TDs, likely out '08 with knee injury), but have Louis Murphy (5 TDs) back along with Harvin. The offensive line is in good shape, with three starters—seniors Jim Tartt and Jason Watkins, and soph Maurkice Pouncey—back, and '06 starter Phil Trautwein returning from medical redshirt. Just Tebow plus a solid offensive line makes for a great offense; having Harvin and several other good backs and receivers makes this once again probably the best in the country.
Defense (8 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #46      Adj. Rush Def: #11     Adj. Pass Def: #102
The Gators had a great rushing defense in 2007, holding all but three opponents to double-digit yardage, but lose two starters off the defensive line including Derrick Harvey, who had 17 tackles-for-loss. Jermaine Cunningham (6.5 sacks) is back, and Javier Estopinan returns as well but might be a reserve behind sophomore Justin Trattou. Mike Pouncey started some games but moved to the offensive line, and projected starting tackle Torrey Davis missed most of fall camp with a variety of issues. Thus the rushing defense might slip somewhat in '08, unless the excellent linebacking corps picks up the slack; starters Brandon Spikes (#1 tackler last year), Dustin Doe (#2), and A.J. Jones all return. The problem last season was pass defense. Several freshmen played at the position and there was little consistency in the lineup. This year they lose Tony Joiner but return corner Joe Haden and safety Major Wright who should both be much improved as they were true freshmen last year. The other corner spot has three players with starting experience back: original '07 starter Markihe Anderson, who was injured early in the season; Wondy Pierre-Louis, who saw the most action; and soph Jacques Rickerson, who may get the start this year. At the strong safety spot, Dorian Munroe had the nod until he became, along with backup John Curtis, one of several Gators to suffer ACL tears in camp. Though the key players add a big year of experience and should improve on last year's faulty coverage, injuries and other issues (e.g. Jamar Hornsby) have reduced the secondary's depth. But overall the Gators return 14 of last year's top 18 tacklers and should be much better.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Punter Chas Henry averaged a middling 39.3 yards per punt, but hangtime is often underrated; his net average was a fantastic 38.7, as over half his punts resulted in fair catches. The kicking spot is open as Joey Ijjas (72 of 73 PATs) leaves; freshman Caleb Sturgis will likely take over.
Recruiting: Florida's tradition of great recruiting continues under Urban Meyer. The 2008 class was a top ten class, while the 2007 class was a clear #1. The secondary is a good place to see both classes in action, with Haden and Wright, who started as true freshmen, and Will Hill, an '08 signee who may start due to the Munroe injury.   
2008 Season Outlook: A championship year is a hard act to follow, but Florida's 2007 season was actually more interesting with Tim Tebow at the helm. And three games in, after dominating Tennessee 59-20, it looked like a Florida repeat was a distinct possibility. The following game against Mississippi showed how dependent on Tebow they had become, as he had to personally clinch the 30-24 win. The losses to Auburn and LSU showed that even he couldn't carry the team past good competition—but he came damn close. Tebow won the shootout with Kentucky's Andre Woodson, but they fell next week against Georgia when he was slowed by injury. The Gators closed on such an offensive tear—scoring 49, 51, 59, and 45—that people expected the same outcome against Michigan in the Capitol One bowl. Instead, Michigan's seniors, finally healthy, dished out the 41 points and won. Again Tebow couldn't do it all, but he did enough to become the first sophomore to win the Heisman, and the first player to rush and pass for 20 TDs.

Florida 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Hawaii	87%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	Miami (Florida)	91%	W
9/20	Sat	@	*Tennessee	66%	W
9/27	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi	85%	W
10/4	Sat	@	*Arkansas	72%	W
10/11	Sat	vs.	*Louisiana State	69%	W
10/25	Sat	vs.	*Kentucky	77%	W
11/1	Sat	N	*Georgia	61%	W
11/8	Sat	@	*Vanderbilt	79%	W
11/15	Sat	vs.	*South Carolina	69%	W
11/22	Sat	vs.	Citadel	98%	W
11/29	Sat	@	Florida State	69%	W
Favored: 12-0  Projected: 9-3

Florida has a chance of sweeping the SEC, always a difficult proposition. The game vs. Georgia, played in Jacksonville, FL, is supposed to be one of the "neutral site" games like the Red River Shootout. That will be Florida's toughest game, with the contest at Tennessee a close second. The Gators can win both of them. Other tough games included LSU and South Carolina at home, and FSU on the road, and across the entire schedule there might be three losses if they're unlucky. They also have some easy games: home against Hawaii and Miami are as close to gimmes as you can have for opponents recently in BCS bowls, and the Gators take on The Citadel later in the year. The SEC is unpredictable and there's always the SEC championship opponent to consider, which would probably be Auburn, in Atlanta. Still, Florida looks as good as Oklahoma/Missouri or USF/West Virginia in their chances to reach the BCS national championship game. I rate them as better than all those teams, but with a tougher schedule. If they make it they'll have somewhat of a home field advantage as the game is played in Miami. Will Florida and Ohio State, the #1 offense and #1 defense, meet in a rematch of the 2006 game? It's one of many possibilities, but from the hazy pre-season vantage point it might be the most likely scenario.