SportsRatings is ranking all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August until the season begins. These rankings are meant to reflect how good the teams might be in 2008 without taking schedule into account.
Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for each team, and two projected records are given: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and another cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty in the predictions. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. (Schedule listings adapted from James Howell's site)
This installment covers teams from #96 to #100. To see the full list, click here.
| 96. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders |
2007 Results: Record: 5-7 Bowl: n/a Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #85 Success: #88 Combined: #85
They had to take down the banners advertising the football team in Murfreesboro. Maybe it's for the best, since the offensive line injuries could limit the team's success this year.
Offense (5 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #90 Adj. Rush Yards: #93 Adj. Pass Yards: #89
The offense wasn't great last year but at least it was balanced—between the run and the pass, and between two quarterbacks, Dwight Dasher and Joe Craddock, each of whom threw for over 1,000 yards. Nearly equal stats have led to a quarterback controversy, but Dasher as his name suggests is a better runner—the team's leading rusher, actually—and will play a lot even if he doesn't start. Receivers Patrick Honeycutt and Desmond Gee return, but Gee has moved to running back since DeMarco McNair (9 TDs) is gone. But all this talk of running and passing may be moot; the offensive
line is severely depleted. First two starters were lost to
graduation/early draft; then Mark Fisher's injury became season-ending; and finally Jamal Lewis was injured in
the summer and won't play in '08.
Defense (5 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #77 Adj. Rush Def: #96 Adj. Pass Def: #48
The pass defense was good last year, the rushing defense not-so-good. With four of the front seven back, there should be some improvement, but we'll have to see. Only Alex Suber (59 tackles) is a return starter in the secondary, but a few sometimes-starters fill the gaps and they should still be decent.
Kicking Game (2 RS): The Raiders have two returning kickers, and neither one will start in '08. Dave DeFatta is the starting punter and replaced kicker Matt King, who made only 2 of 7 field goals last year. This season freshman Alan Gendreau is expected to take over as kicker.
Recruiting: The '08 class rated quite a bit higher than the '07 class, but neither set the world on fire. Perhaps this is the effect of scholarships, docked a few years ago for poor grades, being reinstated? I'm not sure. For now, note that the 2008 class includes the new starting kicker, and that redshirt freshman Jake Padrick is slated to start at center.
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2008 Season Outlook Four losses kicked off MTSU's '07 season, including a heartbreaker to Western Kentucky. The next six games hardly could have gone better. They went 5-1 during the stretch, with only a 2-point loss to Virginia. At 5-5, MTSU could have been bowl-bound, but they dropped the last two to Lafayette and Troy.
The problems on the offensive line likely mean that sometimes-explosive (four games over 40 points) offense will be hampered. Thus it's unlikely they'll exceed last season's win total, and more likely fall short. They should still beat FIU and North Texas, and ULM and Lafayette may be close but I have them winning those. They may lose their first five games, though Arkansas State is theirs for the taking should they solve some of their issues in a positive way. And winning at Western Kentucky would give them six wins. Of course the pendulum could swing the other way as well, but I see them winning at least four.
| 97. Eastern Michigan Eagles |
2007 Results: Record: 4-8 Bowl: n/a Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #103 Success: #99 Combined: #103
The returning starter numbers might be typical, but beyond the first string, 29 of the Eagles' next top 34 players return, equally on both sides of the ball. This depth should help them improve as the season commences.
Offense (7 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #101 Adj. Rush Yards: #74 Adj. Pass Yards: #102
Andy Schmitt is the returning starter at QB, and he's also the Eagles' leading returning rusher at 279 yards and 6 TDs. With Pierre Walker gone, production in the running game will slow, putting more on Schmitt's passing. And he's not bad: 65%, 14 TDs to 6 INTs, but they'll need more than 1,600 yards out of him, though the low number was due to missing games. Three top receivers return with more than 1,000 yards and 9 TDs shared. 4/5 of the line is back, too, leading me to believe this offense can be better than last year's, if a good running back is found.
Defense (8 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #99 Adj. Rush Def: #108 Adj. Pass Def: #63
The rushing defense needed to improve this year, and despite losing two key starters there were high hopes. But projected starter Adam Brockman left the team, so the depth of the team will be tested early. The linebacker corps looks solid—as long as Andre Hatchett returns from academic purgatory. No word yet, as far as I can tell. The strength of the D is the pass defense, and it should be even better with the entire secondary intact.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Punter Zack Johnson took over placekicking duties as well last year, and may do both chores again. He's a good punter—almost 40 net—but ideally someone else would kick field goals.
Recruiting: The Eagles recruiting classes are typical for the MAC: top 100, not much better. This year's bright spot is JUCO transfer Kyle Pollock, set to start at tight end.
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2008 Season Outlook Last season was really pretty dismal for the Eagles. Wins over lowly Northern Illinois and I-AA Howard put them at 2-2, which became 2-6 after four straight losses. At least they beat intrastate rivals Western Michigan and Central Michigan.
The early schedule for 2008 is pretty forgiving, even with Michigan State and Maryland on it. The home opener is a gimme, or should be, and Toledo is winnable but not certain by any means. Then Northern Illinois and Army should be victories, and if they beat Akron they could (should?) be 5-3 with four games left.
But all four are likely losses. Looking at them cumulatively, there's no reason they couldn't win one or two of them, but then you have to ask the same question about some of the victories counted above. The Temple game is interesting in that the Eagles will have two weeks off—two idle weeks, that is, so three full weeks to prepare. Adding everything up, there's no reason they can't reach six wins this year, but five is just as likely. If Hatchett doesn't return that could put the defense's improvements in jeopardy, but as far as injuries throughout the season go, the Eagles' depth should keep them more stable than most teams.
| 98. Memphis Tigers |
2007 Results: Record: 7-6 Bowl: Lost to FAU 44-27 (New Orleans Bowl) Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #104 Success: #82 Combined: #104
An overrated team last year, they won five games by a total of 13 points. They'll be better this year, just maybe not as lucky.
Offense (7 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #81 Adj. Rush Yards: #96 Adj. Pass Yards: #18
The first order of business is finding a quarterback to replace Martin Hankins (61%, 3,220 yards, 25TD), who was the main reason for Memphis' outsized passing attack. Two of the four potential inheritants have dropped out, leaving JUCO x-fer Arkelon Hall and last season's backup Will Hudgens in the mix. Hudgens missed spring playing baseball while Hall battled Matt Malouf, who transferred out along with redshirt freshman Dallas Walker. Though most think Hall will emerge, I think Hudgens has a shot; he keeps the INTs low and has experience starting for the Tigers. Memphis also needs help at running back but returns tons of receivers and should have a solid O-line.
Defense (9 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #109 Adj. Rush Def: #112 Adj. Pass Def: #97
No matter how you look at it, at least three starters return in the Tiger front four, so the rushing defense should (had better) improve. Though leading tackler Jake Kasser is goneat linebacker, two other starters return. The secondary is flush, too, with 4 players who have significant starting experience. The Tiger defense should be much improved, and it's necessary for the team's success.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Both kicker Matt Reagan and punter Brent Sutherland return. Sutherland is unspectacular and the Tiger punt fielding doesn't help his net, while Reagan is inconsistent and limited in range.
Recruiting: The Memphis football team doesn't have the kind of recruiting success that the basketball team does, to say the least; both of the last two classes have ranked just inside the top 100. But key players, like Hall, can often fill in immediately nonetheless.
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2008 Season Outlook And people say Virginia won a lot of close games? Memphis did, too. Not at first, though—on their way to 1-3 they dropped a 2-point loss to Mississippi and a 4-pointer to Arkansas State. But then their luck turned around.
Starting with a 3-point win over Marshall, the Tigers won six of their next eight games to close out the regular season, including wins over Rice (3 points), Tulane (1), Southern Miss (3) and SMU (3, OT). At 6-6 they were chosen for the New Orleans Bowl, in which they played valiantly but ultimately lost to Florida Atlantic, 44-27.
Had they gone 2-5 in close games instead of 5-2, no one would be talking about the Tigers as possible CUSA champs. This season, the defense should be good enough to give them a bit of cushion in their wins, and many of their opponents have been downgraded. Still, they probably won't finish any better than they did last year, unless they enjoy the same kind of luck in close games, in which case add a win over Southern Mississippi. Don't think about what happens if their luck changes to the reverse, however—that could get ugly.
| 99. San Diego State Aztecs |
2007 Results: Record: 4-8 Bowl: n/a Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #88 Success: #85 Combined: #88
An improved defense can't offset a depleted offense for the Aztecs.
Offense (3 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #68 Adj. Rush Yards: #79 Adj. Pass Yards: #31
The losses on offense start with Kevin O'Connell, who threw for 3,000+ yards and 15 TDs and ran for another 11 TDs. Their next leading rusher is gone, and their two top receivers, and starting tight end. Then there's 3/5 of their starting line to replace, and all of it adds up to a nightmare for head coach Chuck Long.
Defense (8 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #84 Adj. Rush Def: #118 Adj. Pass Def: #57
Long will sleep better if he focuses on the defense. Even though last year the unit wasn't very good, it should be much improved. The rushing defense can only get better, unless you believe they'll fall into the bottom two. The three linebackers returning including leading tackler Russell Allen should cover for the front four's miscues well. And the secondary returns three starters as well. The pass D appears to be their strength, but their #57 rating simply means that teams generally achieve their normal passing yardage against the Aztecs. This is in addition to running all over them. So the passing D needs help, too; opponents completed two-thirds of their attempts against the Aztecs last season.
Kicking Game (0 RS): As if the offensive woes weren't enough, kicker Garrett Palmer must be replaced. Excellent punter Michael Hughes is gone, too, though Long has a hotshot freshman lined up to take his place.
Recruiting: Some people wonder why San Diego State can't recruit better, given the location and the nearby talent pool. I don't have the answer, just that Long's last few classes were not stunners. But the aforementioned punter is slated to start, and several freshman and redshirt freshman/sophomores from the last two classes have made their way into the two-deep, some even starting. On offense, unfortunately, this may be because of necessity as much as talent.
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2008 Season Outlook San Diego State's first four games of '07 went as expected: lose to the three BCS schools, beat the I-AA team. Their next five games were almost all very competitive, and they won three of them, but their final three games were duds and another promising season ended in disappointment.
Facing a rebuilding year after a disappointing season is a tough task. But strangely enough, while the Aztecs are clearly a worse team than last season, there's a pretty good chance they'll have a better record this year—assuming a healthy portion of luck.
Both my projections call for improvement in W's and L's; they'll be favorites in six games this season, though the cumulative odds show them winning five. The reason? Take a look at the W's in the chart, and the percentages next to them. Fully five of the six wins are extremely close. In other words, the Aztecs are a dose of bad luck away from 1-11 next year as well.
First off, don't chalk up Cal Poly in the win column. They were a good team last season and might be even better in '08. The opener will be a good litmus test for both squads. As for Notre Dame, SDSU should have played them last season. Idaho is the only solid win, with San Jose State, Air Force, Colorado State, and UNLV all basically tossups that the gods have granted to the Aztecs, on paper. What really happens will perhaps be affected most by the success or failure of Long's search for the best quarterback to lead the team.
| 100. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs |
2007 Results: Record: 5-7 Bowl: n/a Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #106 Success: #86 Combined: #106
The Bulldogs overachieved last year by winning five games; this year they might be good enough to deserve five wins, if the defense can hold up.
Offense (8 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #111 Adj. Rush Yards: #75 Adj. Pass Yards: #64
QB Zac Champion (come on, you have to chuckle) is gone, but leading rusher Patrick Jackson is back, as well as the top receivers. In fact, the top ten pass catchers all return along with the top five rushers from last season. All the offense needs is someone to hand it off and throw it to them. And voila, somehow Taylor Bennett, who graduated from Georgia Tech last year, shows up eligible to play for Louisiana Tech (because he graduated, he doesn't have to sit a year). He's got what the team needs right now—experience—and despite his shortcomings I think he should be the starter.
Defense (5 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #92 Adj. Rush Def: #55 Adj. Pass Def: #93
Though the offense is loaded, the defense has holes, but luckily there are experienced backups to move into most of them. The biggest concern is the front four, where only one starter returns. Same situation at linebacker, where Quin Harris is the sole returning starting, and potential starter Zach Schreiber has been suspended pending forgery charges. Only the secondary looks truly solid, with three starters back including leading tackler Antonio Baker.
Kicking Game (1 RS): The Bulldogs need a new kicker; their last one wasn't that great so replacing him shouldn't be difficult, in theory. Solid punter Chris Keagle returns after achieving a 37 yard net last season.
Recruiting: Not that head coach Derek Dooley has an easy job recruiting, but it has to be disappointing when the recruits you do land get away. Recently two true freshmen (Jimmie Crawford and Ketaraus Stanton) transferred to junior college, and redshirt freshman Jay Dudley was ruled academically ineligible. Not that any of them was a 4-star recruit, but at a place like Ruston, you never know who your diamond in the rough might be.
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2008 Season Outlook After beating Central Arkansas, and coming very, very close to beating Hawaii, the Bulldogs went into a three-game skid ending with a 24-0 loss to Mississippi. They barely beat lowly New Mexico State, then played Boise State close the whole game before falling. Three more wins over sorry teams (Utah State, Idaho, and San Jose) followed, along with crushing losses to LSU and Nevada. Ultimately, the Bulldogs can't claim to have beaten any decent opponents in '07—at least, none with a winning record—yet they almost qualified for a bowl game.
Despite adding Kansas to the schedule and playing Boise and Hawaii back-to-back, things look better for 2008. After almost certainly going 1-4, Tech has six winnable games in the final seven, and should be fairly strongly favored to win five this year. A sixth, San Jose State, is as much of a tossup as you can get, but tie goes to the home team. Without improving very much—and some would say, having a rebuilding year—Tech could be knocking on the door of a bowl game again this season.
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