SportsRatings is ranking all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August until the season begins. These rankings are meant to reflect how good the teams might be in 2008 without taking schedule into account.
Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for each team, and two projected records are given: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and another cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty in the predictions. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. (Schedule listings adapted from James Howell's site)
This installment covers teams from #86 to #90. To see the full list, click here.
86. Marshall Thundering Herd |
2007 Results: Record: 3-9 Bowl: n/a Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #90 Success: #96 Combined: #90
The Thundering Herd will be a better team than last year, but it won't be a return to their '90s glory days.
Offense (8 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #94 Adj. Rush Yards: #78 Adj. Pass Yards: #49
Marshall will miss Bernard Morris, their starting quarterback and 2nd leading ground-gainer from last year. He threw for over 3,000 yards while no backup threw a touchdown pass in '07. Replacing him will likely be redshirt freshman Mark Cann, and helping Cann adjust will be three top wide receivers, plus TE Cody Slate, and RB Darius Marshall. Add 3/5 of the line and you have an experienced returning offense that makes up for its few key losses.
Defense (8 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #83 Adj. Rush Def: #82 Adj. Pass Def: #98
The defense should see improvement across the board, but especially in pass defense where they need it most. The secondary had every key player back until corner J.J. Johnson was kicked off the team. Still, led by leading tackler CJ Spillman, they have enough depth to compensate. The front seven should improve against the run as five starters return if you count Albert McClelland, their best defensive player from '06. McClelland is shifting to a linebacker position while Ian Hoskins has moved to the line.
Kicking Game (0 RS): Punter/kicker Anthony Binswanger is gone, necessitating two replacements. Binswanger was an average punter and as kicker he was great inside the 40 (12-12) but poor beyond (1-6). Craig Ratanamorn, from the Marshall soccer team, is listed at kicker and may be the punter as well, or that could go to sophomore Cody Ochoa or true freshman Kase Whitehead.
Recruiting: Marshall's 2007 class wasn't rated in the top 50 nationally, but they're getting good use out of it. In addition to Cann, other redshirt freshmen may fill holes throughout the offensive line and defense. The 2008 class has several talented JUCO transfers that may help immediately.
Marshall 2008 schedule & forecast |
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8/30 | Sat | vs. | Illinois State | 62% | W |
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9/6 | Sat | @ | Wisconsin | 26% | L | |||
9/13 | Sat | vs. | *Memphis | 55% | W |
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9/20 | Sat | @ | *Southern Miss | 42% | L | |||
9/27 | Sat | @ | West Virginia | 12% | L | |||
10/3 | Fri | vs. | Cincinnati | 30% | L | |||
10/18 | Sat | @ | *UAB | 56% | W |
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10/28 | Tue | vs. | *Houston | 50% | W |
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11/8 | Sat | @ | *East Carolina | 34% | L | |||
11/15 | Sat | vs. | *Central Florida | 42% | L | |||
11/22 | Sat | @ | *Rice | 52% | W |
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11/29 | Sat | vs. | *Tulsa | 41% | L | |||
Favored: 5-7 Projected: 5-7 |
2008 Season Outlook Last year was a dud for a team that not long ago dominated in conference play and went undefeated in 1999. Marshall was in decline before moving to Conference USA, but their 3-9 finish was their worse since moving from Division I-AA in 1997.
The Herd lost their first seven games of 2007, even falling to I-AA New Hampshire. They finished strong with three wins in the final five games to stay out of the CUSA basement.
That strong finish—coupled with all the returning talent—bodes well for 2008. I've got them favored in five games, and adding up the odds says the same thing. There are a few games (Wisconsin, West VA, Cincinnati) that they don't have much hope in, but a win vs. Southern Miss, UCF, or Tulsa could put them over the top to bowl eligibility, but that may have to wait until 2009 for this young team.
87. Air Force Falcons |
2007 Results: Record: 9-4 Bowl: L to Cal 42-36 (Armed Services Bowl) Poll finish: #37 AP
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #49 Success: #45 Combined: #48
This year isn't good for the service academies. Not only does Army rate 120 out of 120 teams, but Navy fell to #91. Air Force falls the farthest of all of them, from a top 50 team to #87, due to extensive personnel losses. Second year coach Troy Calhoun proved himself last year, and he'd really convince people with a repeat bowl appearance this season.
Offense (3 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #47 Adj. Rush Yards: #3 Adj. Pass Yards: #119
The losses are profound on offense: QB Shaun Carney (1,491 passing, 9 TDs, 637 rushing, 6 TDs) and Z-back Chad Hall (1,478 yd rushing, 15 TDs, 524 receiving, 1 TD) accounted for a huge amount of the Falcon offense. The run, of course, is the key to Air Force's offense, and the top six ground-gainers are missing in '08. Three starting lineman have to be replaced as well. Hall's heir apparent, Ty Paffett, may not be ready for the first game of the season after back surgery.
Defense (5 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #47 Adj. Rush Def: #40 Adj. Pass Def: #100
The most solid area of the team is the line, where three starters return in a 3-4 set. Even here there is potential trouble, as nose guard Jared Martin had ACL/MCL surgery in the spring. Only one of four linebackers returns, and Chris Thomas (2nd leading tackler in '08) is the sole starter back in a secondary that wasn't very good to begin with. In all, four of the top five Falcon tacklers have moved on.
Kicking Game ('2' RS): The Falcons really only return one starter here, but he did double duty, and pretty well: punter/kicker Ryan Harrison averaged 42.9 yards a boot, and made 19 of 27 field goals including 3 of 4 from 50+. He may very well be the most important returning player on the team.
Recruiting: Calhoun's second recruiting class was considerably better than his first in '07. But as Air Force frosh normally play on the junior varsity team, the '07 class has more bearing on results for this season. Few sophomores are listed in the starting lineup, but eight 2nd-string offensive players are sophs; Reggie Rembert fielded kicks as a freshman and will start at cornerback this season. This is a very young team and if injuries hit Calhoun will be playing some green players.
Air Force 2008 schedule & forecast |
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8/30 | Sat | vs. | Southern Utah | 74% | W |
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9/6 | Sat | @ | *Wyoming | 43% | L | |||
9/13 | Sat | @ | Houston | 45% | L | |||
9/20 | Sat | vs. | *Utah | 30% | L | |||
10/4 | Sat | vs. | Navy | 54% | W | |||
10/11 | Sat | @ | *San Diego State | 50% | L | |||
10/18 | Sat | @ | *Nevada-Las Vegas | 47% | L | |||
10/23 | Thu | vs. | *New Mexico | 49% | L | |||
11/1 | Sat | @ | Army | 63% | W | |||
11/8 | Sat | vs. | *Colorado State | 55% | W | |||
11/15 | Sat | vs. | *Brigham Young | 31% | L | |||
11/22 | Sat | @ | *Texas Christian | 32% | L | |||
Favored: 4-8 Projected: 6-6 |
2008 Season Outlook Last year was very good to Troy Calhoun as he turned the team around from a losing 2006. They lost to Navy, but they beat Army and Notre Dame and won six out of seven to finish the regular season. They took a big lead on Cal in the Armed Forces bowl but Carney was hurt and the Bears came roaring back and won. No one was disappointed, however, in their 2007 effort.
At first glance the 2008 campaign looks like a return to 2006. Though they pick the right Div I-AA team to face, only the other troubled service academy teams and Colorado State look like victims this year. But noting the several tossups—especially San Diego State, New Mexico, UNLV and maybe Houston—and the Falcons could claw their way back to 6-6 and possibly into a bowl game, despite being one of the few teams in the country to lose more lettermen than they retain. Anything beyond six wins is more evidence that Troy Calhoun is a great coach.
88. Nevada-Las Vegas Rebels |
2007 Results: Record: 2-10 Bowl: n/a Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #92 Success: #103 Combined: #92
Recently deemed an NCAA-low 1000-1 shot to win the national championship, the Rebels have their sights set a little lower, which is good since they're not significantly better than they were last season when they finished at the bottom of the Mountain West.
Offense (9 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #106 Adj. Rush Yards: #68 Adj. Pass Yards: #57
Perhaps I spoke too soon: the offense will be significantly better in '08. With QB duo Travis Dixon and Omar Clayton back, they automatically have their 2nd and 3rd best rushers back too. And #1 Frank Summers returns as well, along with the top three receivers. Four starters return on the huge Rebel O-line. If they do nothing more than cut the turnovers it should allow their yardage gains to translate better into points.
Defense (5 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #71 Adj. Rush Def: #78 Adj. Pass Def: #12
The defensive line deserves a paragraph of their own. First off, 25-year-old tackle Jacob Hales nearly quit football in the off-season, then came back to dominate in the spring. Second, the other starters names are Heivaha Mafi, Malo Taumua, and Thor Pili. Even if they still can't stop the run, they'll win any all-name D-line contest. Passing D was the strength of this unit last year; though they gave up quite a few yards, compared to the normal averages for their Mountain West foes, they were downright stingy. Two starters return in the secondary, but two linebackers, including leading tackler Beau Bell, are gone.
Kicking Game (0 RS): The Rebels have two good kickers to replace in punter Brian Pachecho and placekicker Sergio Aguayo.
Recruiting: UNLV's last two classes ranked in the 90s nationally; that fact, along with the team's overall depth this year, is why only a few redshirt freshmen show up in the two-deep this season, though expected starter Mafi is a JUCO transfer.
UNLV 2008 schedule & forecast |
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8/30 | Sat | vs. | Utah State | 59% | W | |||
9/6 | Sat | @ | *Utah | 24% | L | |||
9/13 | Sat | @ | Arizona State | 22% | L | |||
9/20 | Sat | vs. | Iowa State | 55% | W | |||
9/27 | Sat | vs. | Nevada | 51% | W | |||
10/4 | Sat | @ | *Colorado State | 48% | L | |||
10/18 | Sat | vs. | *Air Force | 54% | W | |||
10/25 | Sat | @ | *Brigham Young | 24% | L | |||
11/1 | Sat | vs. | *Texas Christian | 39% | L | |||
11/8 | Sat | vs. | *New Mexico | 49% | L | |||
11/15 | Sat | vs. | *Wyoming | 51% | L | |||
11/22 | Sat | @ | *San Diego State | 49% | L | |||
Favored: 5-7 Projected: 5-7 |
2008 Season Outlook A win over Utah State—and an inexplicable 27-0 crushing of Utah—were the only highlights of a season that ended with eight straight losses.
The Rebels had a tough schedule last season, playing Wisconsin and Hawaii. They have ASU this year but also Iowa State, at home. And though Utah will probably exact revenge, Utah State looks like another win, which would match last year's total in the first four games.
Avoiding another eight-game slide should be easy. The next three games are all winnable, as are the last three. Though I have the final three games as very close, those six tossup games taken together should yield three wins, giving the Rebels a 5-win season. With a little luck, they could be bowl-eligible. Either way, it looks like last season was a fluke—they weren't really as bad as all that. They aren't amazingly improved overall this season, but it might look like it when all is said and done.
89. Baylor Bears |
2007 Results: Record: 3-9 Bowl: n/a Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #101 Success: #102 Combined: #101
The Bears make a pretty sizeable leap up the charts...they're no longer the worst team in the Big Twelve, but they're still last place in the South division.
Offense (9 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #104 Adj. Rush Yards: #109 Adj. Pass Yards: #32
Blake Szymanski piled up almost 3,000 yards last season, completing 57% and throwing 22 TDs passes, as well as 18 interceptions. The latter has led most people to posit him demoted by new head coach Art Briles to 3rd string this year, behind Miami insta-transfer Kirby Freeman and super frosh Robert Griffin. I'd have to go with Szymanski here. There's plenty of time to bring Griffen up, and Freeman rarely looked good at Miami. Szymanski was slowed by injury last season, can run in a pinch, and as for interceptions, his backups' TD/INT ratio last year was 1 to 9, suggesting that maybe not all of those turnovers were his fault. And the supporting cast will improve: four starters return on the line, and the three top receivers from last year including TE/IR Justin Akers are back.
Defense (6 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #89 Adj. Rush Def: #89 Adj. Pass Def: #68
The rushing defense needs the most improvement, and it should get better with three starters—Jason Lamb, Vincent Rhodes, and Trey Bryant—back up front. Only one starting linebacker returns but they're deep at the position and Joe Pawelek may be the best player on the defense. In the secondary they must replace the corners but both safeties return including leading tackler Jordan Lake. All of this leaves a few holes in the defense, but roughly 20 members of the 2nd and 3rd units return as well.
Kicking Game (1.5 RS): Two players shared placekicking duties last season and although Shea Brewster returns, he may be replaced by freshman Ben Parks after making just 3 of 8 last season. Punter Derek Epperson's job is more secure after averaging nearly 40 yards a punt (though only 31 net).
Recruiting: Both of the latest classes ranked in the 50s nationally. With Briles coming in from Houston, those numbers may get better beyond this transition year. For now, he's shown a willingness to consider using members of the 2008 class (e.g., Griffin and Parks) where there is a need.
Baylor 2008 schedule & forecast |
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8/30 | Sat | vs. | Wake Forest | 35% | L | |||
9/6 | Sat | vs. | Northwestern State | 73% | W |
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9/13 | Sat | vs. | Washington State | 45% | L | |||
9/19 | Fri | @ | Connecticut | 23% | L | |||
10/4 | Sat | vs. | *Oklahoma | 17% | L | |||
10/11 | Sat | vs. | *Iowa State | 55% | W | |||
10/18 | Sat | @ | *Oklahoma State | 28% | L | |||
10/25 | Sat | @ | *Nebraska | 33% | L | |||
11/1 | Sat | vs. | *Missouri | 19% | L | |||
11/8 | Sat | @ | *Texas | 20% | L | |||
11/15 | Sat | vs. | *Texas A&M | 38% | L | |||
11/29 | Sat | @ | *Texas Tech | 10% | L | |||
Favored: 2-10 Projected: 4-8 |
2008 Season Outlook To slightly rearrange a movie title: The bad, the good, and the ugly. That was Baylor's 2007 in a nutshell.
The bad was a 27-0 drubbing at the hands of TCU in the opener. The good was the subsequent three-game winning streak, where the Bears scored 42, 34, and 34 points to beat Rice, Texas State, and Buffalo. The ugly was finishing the season with an eight game skid, while scoring 14 or fewer points in six of those games and giving up 50+ thrice.
Baylor is better than that this year. Unfortunately, the Big 12 is better as well. They shouldn't go winless in conference play, as they get Iowa State at home, but there aren't many other possibilities after that. Playing Wake Forest and Connecticut in the pre-season doesn't help matters. Some closer games and chances for upsets project a 4-8 year, but looking at the schedule I'd guess a repeat of last season's 3-9 finish is in the cards.
90. North Carolina State Wolfpack |
2007 Results: Record: 5-7 Bowl: n/a Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #77 Success: #66 Combined: #76
A dearth of returning talent dooms the Wolfpack to the ACC cellar, but a surprisingly good recruiting class lessens the blow for the future.
Offense (5 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #87 Adj. Rush Yards: #108 Adj. Pass Yards: #43
The Pack return both quarterbacks that started games last season, Daniel Evans passing for 2,000 yards and 12TDs and 13 INTs, Harrison Beck adding 903 and 9 INT for his one touchdown. Looking for improvement coach Tom O'Brien has opened the job up to all comers and no decision has been made yet. NC State couldn't run the ball very well last season but every back who took a handoff returns, including two who were injured during the course of the '07 campaign. Three starters are back on the line and while NC State loses all of their four top receivers (Donald Bowers is gone for the year with a back injury), the offensive situation isn't as bad as 5 returning starters would imply—as long as the QB situation gets worked out.
Defense (4 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #65 Adj. Rush Def: #93 Adj. Pass Def: #43
The Pack clearly has some trouble spots on D. The front four return two starters, and they are two of their best players in Willie Young and Alan-Michael Cash. They're set at cornerback, but have to replace both safeties. The real concern is losing three linebackers, including their top two tacklers. The Pack need to find a way to consistently stop the run this year.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Bradley Pierson returns at punter, but reliable kicker Steven Hauschka is gone. Sophomore Josh Czajkowski is slated to take over.
Recruiting: The 2007 class didn't rank in the top 50, but in his 2nd year O'Brien had great success, with the 2008 class ranking in the top 30 in the nation. A slew of 2nd stringers are redshirt freshman from the '07 class, and while most of '08 will redshirt, Mike Glennon (ranked #5 among QBs coming out of high school) might battle Russell Wilson ('07 class) for the starting QB job.
NC State 2008 schedule & forecast |
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8/28 | Thu | @ | South Carolina | 20% | L | |||
9/6 | Sat | vs. | William & Mary | 65% | W | |||
9/13 | Sat | @ | *Clemson | 16% | L | |||
9/20 | Sat | vs. | East Carolina | 42% | L | |||
9/27 | Sat | vs. | South Florida | 16% | L | |||
10/4 | Sat | vs. | *Boston College | 39% | L | |||
10/16 | Thu | vs. | *Florida State | 34% | L | |||
10/25 | Sat | @ | *Maryland | 25% | L | |||
11/8 | Sat | @ | *Duke | 41% | L | |||
11/15 | Sat | vs. | *Wake Forest | 35% | L | |||
11/22 | Sat | @ | *North Carolina | 29% | L | |||
11/29 | Sat | vs. | *Miami (Florida) | 48% | L | |||
Favored: 1-11 Projected: 4-8 |
2008 Season Outlook N.C.State had a very tough opening schedule in 2007. UCF, Boston College, Clemson, Louisville, and FSU were all losses draped around a win over I-AA Wofford.
They finally got on track against East Carolina, then upset Virginia and Miami, and beat North Carolina. Suddenly at 5-5, bowl eligibility was a possibility. But after losing to Wake Forest they ended on a sour note, 37-0, to Maryland (this was the infamous "giving him the business" game).
This year's schedule is just as bad or worse, with USF and South Carolina instead of B.C. and Louisville, and I-AA William & Mary the only "assured" win. While there are some close games that should raise their record beyond 1-11, it doesn't appear the Pack will be able to match last season's total. The future may look bright, but the present looks strictly pedestrian.
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