2008 Pre-season 120: #81-85 - Temple the most-improved team in the most-improved conference

SportsRatings is ranking all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August until the season begins. These rankings are meant to reflect how good the teams might be in 2008 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for each team, and two projected records are given: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and another cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty in the predictions. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. (Schedule listings adapted from James Howell's site)

This installment covers teams from #81 to #85. To see the full list, click here.

81. Miami (Ohio) Redhawks

2007 Results:    Record: 6-7    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #97    Success: #92    Combined: #97
Like many MAC teams—and the teams from #81 to #85 are all MAC teams—Miami is much better this season, after competing for the conference title last year.
Offense (8 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #115   Adj. Rush Yards: #99    Adj. Pass Yards: #66
Last season's offense wasn't a dynamo by any means, and Daniel Raudabaugh didn't set the world on fire with his 12/12 TD/INT ratio. But he's back along with the top seven receivers, so the passing game should dramatically improve whether Raudabaugh or redshirt frosh Clay Belton gets the nod. The running game, however, looks spotty as the top three backs are gone, but the O-line returns three starters to help the new batch along.
Defense (9 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #67    Adj. Rush Def: #99    Adj. Pass Def: #29
Coach Shane Montgomery said his three returning linebackers (Caleb Bostic, Joey Hudson, and Clayton Mullins) were among the best trio in the nation, and they form the backbone of a much improved defense. The secondary already did a fine job considering their pass-happy opposition last year, and three of four starters return to try to up their mediocre interception tally. The bulk of the front four is back, too, hoping to improve on their main weakness: stopping the run, which they could do against poor rushing teams but not decent ones. That the three returning linebackers were the top three tacklers last season demonstrates both that crew's quality, and the fact that runners were getting past the front four too often.
Kicking Game (2 RS): The Redhawks are well stocked here, with two kickers and one of the nation's best punters, Jacob Richardson (45 yd. ave.). Neither kicker is as good, but hopefully one will step up and improve the team's dismal '07 FG percentage.
Recruiting: Miami's '07 and '08 classes were roughly equivalent, about 80th in the country. Standouts from '07 making their debut this season include potential starting QB Belton and lineman Brandon Brooks. With so much youth at running back, '08 recruit Dan Green might see action this season.

Miami OH 2008 schedule & forecast
8/28	Thu	vs.	Vanderbilt	46%	L
9/6	Sat	@	Michigan	30%	L
9/13	Sat	vs.	Charleston Southern	87%	W
9/20	Sat	@	Cincinnati	26%	L
10/4	Sat	vs.	*Temple	54%	W
10/11	Sat	@	*Northern Illinois	55%	W
10/18	Sat	@	*Bowling Green	47%	L
10/25	Sat	vs.	*Kent State	60%	W
11/4	Tue	@	*Buffalo	47%	L
11/11	Tue	vs.	*Ball State	45%	L
11/21	Fri	@	*Toledo	49%	L
11/28	Fri	vs.	*Ohio	59%	W
Favored: 5-7  Projected: 6-6

2008 Season Outlook Last season didn't start very promisingly, with a one-point win over Ball State and three losses—overtime at Minnesota, and blowouts vs. Cincinnati and at Colorado. But after that the Redhawks played everybody close, winning five of eight to finish 6-6 and earning the right to play for the MAC championship. That loss, 35-10 to Central Michigan, was their worst in two months and put them under .500, but most of the team is back.

The schedule has gotten crueler, however. Subbing Michigan for Minnesota is one thing, and they play at Cincy this year and have Vanderbilt rather than Syracuse. The MAC is overall much improved, too. At least Div I-AA Charleston Southern is there for them. All in all, it looks like they'll match last season's record, with ample opportunity to exceed it by winning close games. In fact, they have a shot in every MAC game. But there's just as much chance that they fall short of last year's total, given the conference's improvement.

82. Western Michigan Broncos

2007 Results:    Record: 5-7    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #86    Success: #87    Combined: #86
The Broncos will be better, especially on D, big once again, will it matter in the much-improved MAC?
Offense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #84   Adj. Rush Yards: #106    Adj. Pass Yards: #29
QB Tim Hiller's not the best, but he'll do. He surpassed 3,000 yards with 64% completion and 20 TDs. The 15 INTs could use improvement, but overall not bad for a soph who was criticized so much by his coach. With prime targets Jamarko Simmons and tight end Branden Ledbetter returning, 2008 should be even better for him, if good answers are found at the three open spots on the line. This would help the dismal running game as well, as leading rusher Brandon West returns.
Defense (10 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #88    Adj. Rush Def: #95    Adj. Pass Def: #84
There are far fewer questions on defense. All starters in the front four return and should dramatically improve the porous rushing D; two linebackers are back plus Austin Pritchard returns from injury last year; and four experienced seniors return to the secondary even as 2nd leading tackler Anthony Gebhart moves on. Across-the-board improvement should be the result, theoretically.
Kicking Game (0 RS): Punter Jim Laney (43.9 ave) moves on and redshirt frosh Ben Armer is set to take over. Kicker Mike Jones will be easier to replace; he missed 5 PATs last year, and replacement Chris Kelly got a few goals under his belt last season.
Recruiting: With the defense in such good hands, it's no surprise that the majority of newcomers are listed on offense. Redshirt freshman Anthony Parker should start on the line, while several others will get playing time.

Western Michigan 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	@	Nebraska	35%	L
9/6	Sat	vs.	*Northern Illinois	62%	W
9/13	Sat	@	Idaho	55%	W
9/20	Sat	vs.	Tennessee Tech	83%	W
9/27	Sat	@	*Temple	47%	L
10/4	Sat	vs.	*Ohio	59%	W
10/11	Sat	@	*Buffalo	47%	L
10/18	Sat	@	*Central Michigan	43%	L
11/1	Sat	vs.	*Eastern Michigan	58%	W
11/8	Sat	N	Illinois	35%	L
11/15	Sat	vs.	*Toledo	56%	W
11/25	Tue	@	*Ball State	37%	L
Favored: 6-6  Projected: 6-6

2008 Season Outlook Season-opening losses to West Virginia, Indiana, and Missouri put the Broncos in a hole, and last-minute losses to Akron, Ball State, and Central Michigan buried them at 3-7. But they finished strong, upsetting the Hawkeyes in Iowa City 28-19, and taking down Temple 16-3 to close out the year. 

With the heartbreaking losses out of the way in 2007 (they hope), the Broncos can look forward to a better '08. Due to the overall improvement in the MAC, many of the conference games are tossups, but I see six wins, with the cumulative projection concurring but with a slightly greater likelihood of going 7-5 than 5-7. The toughest games are Nebraska, Illinois, and Ball State, while Northern Illinois, Tennessee Tech, and Ohio are the only gimmes, if they can even be counted as such. The MAC is up for grabs this year, and Western Michigan can be in the mix if the ball bounces their way this season, unlike the last.

83. Buffalo Bulls

2007 Results:    Record: 5-7    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #94    Success: #98    Combined: #94
Turner Gill has the Bulls on the verge of an amazing turnaround, going from 1-10 to a potential winning season in just three years.
Offense (10 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #95    Adj. Rush Yards: #110    Adj. Pass Yards: #71
The '07 version of this offense couldn't be described as a juggernaut, but they had their strong points: quarterback Drew Willy, who completed 68% for 2,500 yards and 15 TDs against 6 INTs; 1,000 yard rusher James Starks (12 TDs); and a deep receiver corps. All of the above return, plus four-fifths of the line as well as about 18 reserves from last season's 2nd and 3rd string, so the Bull offense is loaded for bear.
Defense (8 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #86    Adj. Rush Def: #103    Adj. Pass Def: #73
The defense is almost as well off as the offense, the exception being the linebacker corps, where stars Larry Hutchinson and Kareem Byrom are missing. Head coach Gill commented that the Bulls are "still searching" at linebacker, and may start a true freshman at one post. But the front four is sturdy with three starters back, and the secondary is filled to the brim, with the equivalent of five starters at four positions including leading tackler Davonte Shannon at strong safety. Overall much improvement is expected on this side of the ball as well.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Punter Ben Woods is gone; his replacement will probably be true freshman Peter Fardon. Kicker A.J. Principe is back; he was excellent from inside 40 yards, but only 2 of 7 from 40+.
Recruiting: You might think that a (relatively) high profile coach like Turner Gill would be building the Buffalo program due to recruiting, but that's not the case. The Bulls are still pretty close to the bottom in terms of recruiting class profile, and in fact the two classes have been in the bottom ten in the nation. But Gill is not afraid to play freshmen; this season linebacker Obi Ezemma and punter Fardon will likely start, and despite the team's overall depth, the projected 2nd string has several true and redshirt freshmen listed.

Buffalo 2008 schedule & forecast
8/28	Thu	vs.	Texas-El Paso	59%	W
9/6	Sat	@	Pittsburgh	27%	L
9/13	Sat	vs.	*Temple	54%	W
9/20	Sat	@	Missouri	13%	L
9/27	Sat	@	*Central Michigan	43%	L
10/11	Sat	vs.	*Western Michigan	53%	W
10/18	Sat	vs.	Army	71%	W
10/28	Tue	@	*Ohio	52%	W
11/4	Tue	vs.	*Miami (Ohio)	53%	W
11/13	Thu	@	*Akron	52%	W
11/21	Fri	@	*Bowling Green	47%	L
11/28	Fri	vs.	*Kent State	60%	W
Favored: 8-4  Projected: 6-6

2008 Season Outlook Gill went 2-10 his first season, and 5-7 the second. Many expect a winning season as a follow-up.

2007 started off slow, at 1-4, but that was with against BCS opponents and MAC power Ball State. They won three games of their next four, missing their chance to beat a major-conference foe by falling 20-12 to Syracuse, and lost to Miami of Ohio and Bowling Green before finishing the season with an overtime win at Kent State.

This year's schedule includes games at Pitt and Missouri, which may be interesting; how many games last season did a small school hang on just a bit too long? Even counting those as sure losses, the Bulls have UTEP and Army to fall back on. MAC play is going to be close and tough almost every game, but I have them favored in six, going 8-4 overall, which would be a huge success for the team. This projection includes the Bulls winning three tight games in a row against Ohio teams, and given the uncertainty of declaring a sure winner for many of these contests, the cumulative projection has Buffalo at 6-6. Is 6-6 a "winning season?" For the Bulls, sure—bowl eligibility would be a victory. But I think that's the low end of what the team could do. I think they'll manage an outright, undeniable winning season by getting seven wins.

84. Temple Owls

2007 Results:    Record: 4-8    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #113    Success: #106    Combined: #113
Temple wasn't as good as their 4-8 record last season, but they're back—damn near all of them—to try to do even better in 2008. The team loses just two lettermen out of 55.
Offense (10 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #119    Adj. Rush Yards: #119    Adj. Pass Yards: #85
Exactly how many starters do the Owls return? Figuring it out is more of an art than a science. Technically they lose only fullback Josh Bundy, who started six games in that set; but several players switch position and have no starts at their new job. Marquis Liverpool moves from wide receiver to running back; Jason Harper the same thing, other direction; and Daryl Robinson moves from RB to DB. So technically they lose their two top backs but after finishing ahead of only Hawaii in real rushing yards it shouldn't count against them. You can argue for 11, or get stricter and say 9, but I think rounding to 10 provides a representative number. Athlon lists 8, which is odd since only 2 players are gone from the entire team, so saying three offensive starters are missing doesn't work for me.
Defense (11 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #80    Adj. Rush Def: #79    Adj. Pass Def: #70
The defense is even better off, if possible, than the offense, losing only one reserve. Put another way: all of their top 20 tacklers from last season are back. The defense was the bigger factor in their success last season (in all four wins, the offense didn't top 24 points) and should be much stronger in '08.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Both punter and kicker return, of course, though neither was spectacular last year. Punter Jeff Wathne averaged under 40 yards a kick and netted only 32, while kicker Jake Brownell was shaky beyond 30 yards.
Recruiting: Temple's recruiting under Al Golden has been pretty good for the MAC, and both of their last two classes rank near the top 75. With such a ridiculous amount of experience returning, I can't see how the 2008 class will find a place to contribute, but several redshirt frosh from '07 join the fray, especially on 2nd string offense.

Temple 2008 schedule & forecast
8/29	Fri	@	Army	64%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	Connecticut	32%	L
9/13	Sat	@	*Buffalo	46%	L
9/20	Sat	@	Penn State	21%	L
9/27	Sat	vs.	*Western Michigan	52%	W
10/4	Sat	@	*Miami (Ohio)	46%	L
10/11	Sat	@	*Central Michigan	43%	L
10/21	Tue	vs.	*Ohio	59%	W
11/1	Sat	@	Navy	48%	L
11/12	Wed	@	*Kent State	52%	W
11/22	Sat	vs.	*Eastern Michigan	57%	W
11/28	Fri	vs.	*Akron	59%	W
Favored: 6-6  Projected: 6-6

2008 Season Outlook Last year's 4-8 record was celebrated as a huge improvement. And it was, given that the last time the Owls won four games was 2002, and it matched the total of the last three seasons combined. And compared to the last two, terrible years, there was dramatic improvement.

It started out bad as ever, 0-5. But the games were competitive; unlike the two prior years there were no shutouts, and the most scored on them was 45, not 62 or 70. And they played Connecticut close, which didn't seem quite so impressive at the time, but was.

Temple then got three wins in a row: Northern Illinois by 1, Akron by 4, Miami (OH) by 7. Their last win, over Kent State, was by a respectable 10 point margin, and though along the way they were blanked by Penn State and lost the finale to Western Michigan 16-3, things were looking up.

And still are. The Owls should win six games and be bowl eligible this year. Lots of close games here, so it could be more or less, but they will match their '07 record at least. Unfortunately Temple plays seven road games this season, and still have UConn and Penn State on the schedule, and are facing a MAC conference that is the most improved in the country. But they'll do fine nonetheless. Watch the UConn game as a litmus test: they could get blown out, but they may get an upset playing at home; if they even stick close like last year people will talk about how UConn was a one-hit wonder last year, not about Temple's legitimacy. But you'll know.

85. Bowling Green Falcons

2007 Results:    Record: 8-5    Bowl: Lost 63-7 to Tulsa (GMAC bowl)    Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #89    Success: #75    Combined: #89
The Falcons do get better this year, returning lots of talent. But last season's record was somewhat misleading, and with so many MAC foes improving more than them, especially with the defense nicked by extracurricular issues, can they really manage another eight-win season?
Offense (8 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #76   Adj. Rush Yards: #112    Adj. Pass Yards: #34
Tyler Sheehan is back and so are his receivers. That's the best news for Bowling Green fans heading into 2008. Sheehan threw for 3,264 yards, completing 64% for 23 TDs against 11 INTs. Not quite Heisman numbers, but on this team he was the star. Freddie Barnes easily led the receiver corps in catches, yardage (nearly 1,000) and TDs (9). Though the running game is limited, the best backs are back. The only concern is the O-line losing three full-time starters including center Kory Lichtensteiger; this could be the weak link that prevents some of the progress the offense is hoping for.
Defense (8 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #103    Adj. Rush Def: #114    Adj. Pass Def: #56
The team's poor rushing defense was set to get a boost from a wealth of returning talent on the front four, but then Orlando Barrow and Jacob Hardwick got in trouble with the law and were kicked off the team. Thus the weakest link in the defense looks to be just as exploitable this season. Though leading tacklers Erique Dozier and John Haneline anchor a solid linebacker unit, it could have been great without the loss of Glen Staley to academics. Given all of this, the secondary looks like the prize on this side of the ball, with four starters in place; their only unexpected offseason loss was projected 2nd-stringer Tarell Lewis, who violated a team rule and was dismissed.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Both kicker Sinisa Vrvilo and punter Nick Iovinelli return for the Falcons. Vrvilo is excellent to about 45 yards while Iovinelli averaged under 40 per kick.
Recruiting: Even for the MAC, Bowling Green is no recruiting machine. Gregg Brandon is in his sixth year as head coach and the last two classes were in the bottom 25 nationally. It's no wonder that the 2-deep is full of seniors, juniors, and redshirt sophomores, though redshirt frosh Ben Bojicic may start at center.

Bowling Green 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	@	Pittsburgh	26%	L
9/6	Sat	vs.	Minnesota	52%	W
9/13	Sat	@	Boise State	30%	L
9/27	Sat	@	Wyoming	44%	L
10/4	Sat	vs.	*Eastern Michigan	57%	W
10/11	Sat	@	*Akron	52%	W
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Miami (Ohio)	53%	W
10/25	Sat	@	*Northern Illinois	55%	W
11/1	Sat	vs.	*Kent State	59%	W
11/8	Sat	@	*Ohio	52%	W
11/21	Fri	vs.	*Buffalo	53%	W
11/28	Fri	@	*Toledo	48%	L
Favored: 8-4  Projected: 6-6

2008 Season Outlook Bowling Green started 3-1, beating Temple, Big Ten doormat Minnesota, and provisional I-A Western Kentucky. They followed by losing 3 of 4, giving up 55 to B.C. and 47 to Miami OH. They finished the year strong, with four wins, topping 31 points each time out.

The season ended on a low note with a 63-7 thrashing in the GMAC Bowl by Tulsa. In all, the Falcons beat one team with a winning record, and that team (Western Kentucky) was 1-5 against I-A schools. With 8 starters back on each side of the ball fans are expecting a lot, probably too much; last year's tally was very misleading. 

But there is some good news from the scheduling gods. Pitt and Boise make a daunting pre-conference slate, but at home B.G. may shock Minnesota again. The Falcons have only five home games, but most of them are against their slightly tougher conference opponents. In this year's wide-open MAC, every win helps, and Bowling Green will be small favorites in seven conference games in a row. The tightness of these odds adds up to a cumulative 6-6 projection, so repeating last season's record will be tough, but another winning season and bowl bid look likely.