College football 2008 Pre-season 120: #76-80 - Gophers still in Big Ten hole

SportsRatings is ranking all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August until the season begins. These rankings are meant to reflect how good the teams might be in 2008 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for each team, and two projected records are given: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and another cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty in the predictions. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. (Schedule listings adapted from James Howell's site)

This installment covers teams from #76 to #80. To see the full list, click here.

76. Wyoming Cowboys

2007 Results:    Record: 5-7    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #81    Success: #74    Combined: #80
The Cowboys return their full offensive line and the bulk of the reserves on offense and defense, pushing them a bit higher, though not substantially. But it might be enough to take coach Joe Glenn off the hot seat with a bowl berth...if they win their close games.
Offense (8 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #98   Adj. Rush Yards: #85    Adj. Pass Yards: #76
Wyoming dodged a small-caliber bullet recently when Greg Bolling, the only returnee of the top four receivers last year, finally became academically eligible for the fall. QB Karsten Sween needs all the help he can get as he tries to bring his INT numbers (17) down. The top two backs including almost-1,000-yard-rusher Devin Moore return, and the entire starting O-line is back, so the rushing totals should go up and Sween have more time to throw.
Defense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #61    Adj. Rush Def: #29    Adj. Pass Def: #27
The defensive line returns three starters in the Cowboys' modified 3-4. They lose Sean Claffey and a handful of other part-time starters at linebacker, but Ward Dobbs, team leader in tackles in '07. And the secondary is a mixed bag with two starters returning and two leaving. The defense in 2007 was good at limiting teams below their average yardage but opponents still scored their average point totals; turnovers can cause such a disconnect—and Wyoming had 31 last season.
Kicking Game (0 RS): Punter/kicker Billy Vinnedge must be replaced for '08; he was a good punter and strong placekicker (57 long). Soph Nick Landess and junior Jake Scott will try to fill his shoes, though true freshman Austin McCoy will likely handle kickoffs and may compete for the punting job, too.
Recruiting: Wyoming's recruiting lately hasn't measured up to the program's quality level. Both Glenn's '07 and '08 classes ranked about 100th in the nation, and though Wyoming isn't Notre Dame, the team certainly rates far higher than 20 other programs. But teams like Wyoming tend to get all they can out of lower-rated players; even this year, where most of the 2nd string returned on offense and defense, there are several redshirt freshmen listed in the 2-deep, including projected starting LB Gabe Knapton. And Sween had to protect his job from JUCO transfer Dax Crum, an '08 recruit.

Wyoming 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Ohio	60%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	*Air Force	56%	W
9/13	Sat	vs.	North Dakota State	50%	L
9/20	Sat	@	*Brigham Young	27%	L
9/27	Sat	vs.	Bowling Green	55%	W
10/4	Sat	@	*New Mexico	45%	L
10/11	Sat	vs.	*Utah	33%	L
10/25	Sat	@	*Texas Christian	35%	L
11/1	Sat	vs.	*San Diego State	59%	W
11/8	Sat	@	Tennessee	26%	L
11/15	Sat	@	*Nevada-Las Vegas	49%	L
11/22	Sat	vs.	*Colorado State	58%	W
Favored: 5-7   Projected: 6-6

2008 Season Outlook Wyoming kicked off the 2007 season with an incredible victory...in retrospect. Beating Virginia 23-3 didn't mean as much at the time, but the Cowboys started 4-1, losing only to Boise State, and looked to be heading for a great season.

Then the tide turned, and the losses started coming. At first they were competitive when losing, but the dam burst at Utah and Glenn had to flip them the bird. They finished by dropping four straight, and six out of seven, second to last in the MWC, and of course, no bowl game.

This season shouldn't go quite that bad. The Cowboys will to have a winning record if they win all the games they're supposed to and can win the true tossups. Wyoming will probably beat Ohio, Air Force, Bowling Green, SDSU, and Colorado State to match last year's record. Contests against Utah and at BYU, TCU, and Tennessee are very unlikely wins. This leaves three other possibilities, two particularly crucial. The first is the home game against I-AA North Dakota State, which happens to be one of the best teams in that division. This is really a good test for the Cowboys; if they are 3-0 at this juncture, that bodes very well for the season. And the late-season game at UNLV might be necessary to put them in a bowl game, assuming things have gone fairly well to that point. More than most teams, this season could fall one way or the other based on winning or losing tight games.

77. Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles

2007 Results:    Record: 7-6    Bowl: L to Cincinnati (Pappajohns.com Bowl)    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #72    Success: #78    Combined: #71
Too many key players are missing for the Eagles to be as good as last year. But if they can avoid upsets, this season might turn out just as well, or better.
Offense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #88   Adj. Rush Yards: #44    Adj. Pass Yards: #105
The pass wasn't as important to the Eagles last year as the run, so if fans had to choose, they'd probably rather have Damion Fletcher (1,586 yards, 15 TDs) back than QB Jeremy Young (11 TDs, 8 INTs). But losing both co-starting quarterbacks (Fletcher and Stephen Reaves, 943 yds, 3 TDs, 8 INTs) leaves them without a leader at the position. And all is not rosy at running back even with Fletcher there; backup Antwain Easterling was dismissed for violating a team rule, and the offensive line loses three starters. In a rare bit of good news, 2nd-leading rusher Tory Harrison was reinstated to the team after being suspended in the spring. And two top wide receivers and tight end Shawn Nelson return if someone can be found to pass to them.
Defense (4 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #50    Adj. Rush Def: #59    Adj. Pass Def: #51
The problems on the offensive side are mirrored on defense. Biggest concern: not a single starter returns on the front four. The linebackers are in better shape with Tokumbo Abanikanda and leading tackler Gerald McRath back. And the secondary returns a couple of starters and some good backups. Still, the weakness of the line takes Southern Miss' average defense down a few notches.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Punter Britt Barefoot (yes, he wears shoes) had a 37 yard net last year, and kicker Justin Estes has a solid short game but is sketchy beyond the 35. Both return for '08, and Estes should improve as he was a true freshman last year.
Recruiting: This is one case where recruiting can have an immediate impact on a team. Whether or not Larry Fedora was a factor in his first recruiting season, this year's group is markedly improved, ranking 42nd in the nation to the '07 class' 59. New members of both classes will help out immediately: '07 recruit Austin Davis will battle for the starting QB job, while on the decimated defensive line, two '08 JUCO recruits will join true frosh cousins Josh and Bo Tillman as backups.

Southern Miss 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Louisiana-Lafayette	66%	W
9/6	Sat	@	Auburn	23%	L
9/13	Sat	@	Arkansas State	53%	W
9/20	Sat	vs.	*Marshall	56%	W
10/4	Sat	vs.	*Texas-El Paso	61%	W
10/11	Sat	vs.	Boise State	39%	L
10/18	Sat	@	*Rice	57%	W
10/25	Sat	@	*Memphis	53%	W
11/1	Sat	vs.	*UAB	67%	W
11/8	Sat	@	*Central Florida	40%	L
11/15	Sat	vs.	*East Carolina	46%	L
11/29	Sat	@	*SMU	58%	W
Favored: 6-6  Projected: 8-4

2008 Season Outlook Fans can't really complain about last year's season—except for a couple of wins that got away. The Eagles pretty much beat who they were expected to (Tennessee-Martin, SMU, Marshall, Arkansas State, etc.) and lost the games that looked daunting at the season's beginning (at Tennessee, at Boise State). But two of their losses were closely-contested upsets—at home.

At 2-2 after losing only the aforementioned road games, Southern Miss was upset at home by Rice, 31-29, after committing seven turnovers. They went 3-1 in the next four games before bowing to Memphis, 29-26, in Hattiesburg, when the Tigers shocked them with 15 points in the last five minutes. Still, the Eagles went to a bowl game, and did an admirable job of staying competitive with a tough Cincinnati team.

And this season, if they don't get upset at home again, or on the road at Rice and Memphis where I figure they should win, they'll better last year's record with a less talented team. I figure the newcomers from the quality recruiting classes will gain experience during the year and see this team through what could be a tough year. As usual, the uncertainly of so many close games makes a 6-6 year a strong possibility, but with more upside than downside.

78. Nevada Wolf Pack

2007 Results:    Record: 6-7    Bowl: Lost to New Mexico 23-0 (New Mexico Bowl)    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #83    Success: #83    Combined: #83
The offense looks great; the defense looks bad. Sounds like last year all over again, but even moreso.
Offense (8 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #51    Adj. Rush Yards: #29    Adj. Pass Yards: #26
The Wolf Pack offense knows how to rack up the yards. QB Colin Kaepernick threw for over 2,000 yards while Nick Graziano threw for over 1,000 in essentially 1/3 of a season. And they run, too: Luke Lippencott gained 1,420 yards and had 20 TDs. But Kaepernick is the star of this show. The freshman completed just 54%, but had a 19-3 TD/INT ratio and ran for nearly 600 yards (6 TDs) to boot. Marko Mitchell (1,129 yards) caught 8 of the TD passes that CK and Graziano (10 TDs) lobbed. All of the above are back for this offense, and with four of the five starters back on the O-Line, the Pack could have one of the better offenses in the country in '08.
Defense (4 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #106    Adj. Rush Def: #100    Adj. Pass Def: #46
Too bad the same can't be said of the defense, which goes from bad to worse this year. Only one full-time starter returns in the front four, and while other players with starting experience join him, they lose Matt Hines, and Erics Clark's petition for a 6th year fell through. At linebacker they lose their leading tackler Ezra Butler, but returning is Josh Magua, who wasn't far behind despite playing only seven games. The pass defense number is better than the reality, since teams could run on Nevada at will and didn't need to pass; but in the 2nd half of the season when the run defense tightened, the pass D's numbers declined quickly (also skewing the number was the game against Nicholls State, who had 0 yards on 1 attempt). Only one starter returns in the secondary.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Consistent kicker Brett Jaekle returns for his senior year with the Pack; he's also set to take over as punter from outgoing Zachary Whited.
Recruiting: Nevada's recruiting isn't stellar, and in Chris Ault's 24th year it isn't likely to improve dramatically. The last two classes ranked just inside the top 100 nationally. But recruiting is also a game of needs vs. wants. The 2008 class included three solid JUCO players who will help fill in the defensive secondary's holes, and four redshirt freshmen from the '07 class will help in other defensive weak areas.

Nevada 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Grambling State	68%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	Texas Tech	20%	L
9/13	Sat	@	Missouri	15%	L
9/27	Sat	@	Nevada-Las Vegas	49%	L
10/4	Sat	@	*Idaho	57%	W
10/11	Sat	vs.	*New Mexico State	69%	W
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Utah State	62%	W
10/25	Sat	@	*Hawaii	43%	L
11/7	Fri	@	*Fresno State	32%	L
11/15	Sat	vs.	*San Jose State	63%	W
11/22	Sat	vs.	*Boise State	39%	L
11/29	Sat	@	*Louisiana Tech	53%	W
Favored: 6-6  Projected: 6-6

2008 Season Outlook Whether their opponent was good or bad, Nevada usually played them close; they were 3-5 in games decided by 8 or fewer points last year. The surprising ones were close losses to Hawaii (28-26) at home and at Boise State (69-67 4OT, one of the highest scoring games ever in college football). The Wolf Pack also got blown out (52-10 at Nebraska), blew another team out (49-10 LA Tech), and finally got blanked, 23-0, by New Mexico in the bowl game they earned with their sixth win.

This year I don't foresee nearly as many close games. Even with Boise State and especially Hawaii not nearly as good, those are probably losses along with the obvious Texas Tech, Missouri, and Fresno State. Wins over Grambling, Idaho, New Mexico State, Utah State and San Jose State ought to be comfortable. The road games vs. UNLV and Louisiana Tech should be tight, though. I see Nevada repeating a 6-6 year give or take a game, but the main difference will be even more scoring—both for and against.

79. Minnesota Golden Gophers

2007 Results:    Record: 1-11    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #84   Success: #116    Combined: #84
The Gophers are headed in the right direction, with a great offense and (hopefully) improving defense, but still won't win much in the Big Ten.
Offense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #50    Adj. Rush Yards: #39    Adj. Pass Yards: #39
Minnesota's offense was actually quite good. Not for a major conference team, but overall they had respectable numbers rushing, passing, and scoring. Quarterback Adam Weber gets most of the credit for this. The redshirt freshman passed for nearly 3,000 yards and 24 TDs and was the team's leading rusher as well (617 net). He returns this season, along with top target Eric Decker, but without Eric Wheelwright and tight end Tray Herndon, who was recently released from his scholarship. 2nd leading rusher Amir Pinnix is gone, but majority starter Duane Bennett and backup Jay Thomas return to carry on the Gopher tradition of a solid running game, which was damaged somewhat last year as no back ran for 1,000 yards (in several seasons this decade they had two the same year). The youngish O-line is somewhat of a question, but again tradition dictates that the line remain sound and there is ample returning experience.
Defense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #107    Adj. Rush Def: #116    Adj. Pass Def: #119
The Gopher defense is another matter. If there's a tradition forming on this unit, it's one of underperformance. The numbers tell the story: Minnesota could stop neither the run or the pass, and gave up 30+ points 10 times last season. It's a mixed bag for '08, which probably means another poor year with yet another new defensive coordinator. On the front four, essentially 2 1/2 starters are back, so the dismal rush D should be somewhat better. At linebacker, two of three starters return including 2nd leading tackler Deon Hightower. They had high hope for true frosh Sam Maresh, but he won't play this year if ever (see Recruiting). The secondary returns another 1 1/2 equivalent, which again suggests improvement only in the sense that they can't get worse. In all three of the four top tacklers are lost.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Walk-on Joel Monroe returns as kicker after making all his PATs and 7 of 9 FGs last season. Improved punter Justin Kucek also returns after averaging a solid 42.7. In terms of returning kicks, last year's promising return man Harold Howell left due to academics.
Recruiting: Tim Brewster's 2nd class was a dramatic improvement over his first, transitional class which ranked outside the top 50. The 2008 class was consensus top 25, and with many top JUCOs and Brewster's willingness to play freshman they will make an immediate impact. Brewster's ability to hold the recruits he gets has come into question. Several members of the '07 class—including his son, QB Clint, and Herndon and Howell—have left the team, and there is talk that a lot of the '08 class won't pass clearinghouse. The most unfortunate story of the 08 class is unrelated to academics. Linebacker Sam Maresh was found to have a life-threatening heart condition that required immediate surgery. Though the operation was a success, it's doubtful he will ever play college ball, but he's personally targetting a spring '09 return. Good luck to him.

Minnesota 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Northern Illinois	63%	W
9/6	Sat	@	Bowling Green	48%	L
9/13	Sat	vs.	Montana State	69%	W
9/20	Sat	vs.	Florida Atlantic	46%	L
9/27	Sat	@	*Ohio State	3%	L
10/4	Sat	vs.	*Indiana	48%	L
10/11	Sat	@	*Illinois	32%	L
10/25	Sat	@	*Purdue	37%	L
11/1	Sat	vs.	*Northwestern	50%	W
11/8	Sat	vs.	*Michigan	38%	L
11/15	Sat	@	*Wisconsin	30%	L
11/22	Sat	vs.	*Iowa	45%	L
Favored: 3-9  Projected: 5-7

2008 Season Outlook A season-opening 1-point overtime loss to Bowling Green did not bode well for the Gophers. Neither did the subsequent overtime win vs. Miami of Ohio. When you split two home games with the MAC, something is wrong. The Miami win would be the Gophers' sole victory of '07. The low point was a loss to North Dakota State, whom they beat only 10-9 the year before. They had their share of competitive games, usually because the offense kept up, but the defense always yielded in the end.

The good news on the schedule is that North Dakota State isn't on it. Instead they open with Northern Illinois, Bowling Green, Montana State, and Florida Atlantic (at home this time), all of which could be wins. I give them two of those four, and they could easily win the Northwestern and Indiana games along with the first four and they'd go from 1-11 to bowl eligible! I think 5-7 is a more realistic ceiling for this team, and 4-8 is the probably outcome. Still, an improvement, considering the team's defensive woes, but as the reasoning goes: the offense is better, and the defense can't get any worse.

80. Houston Cougars

2007 Results:    Record: 8-5    Bowl: L to TCU 20-13 (Texas Bowl)    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #73    Success: #70    Combined: #73
Houston slips a notch without their star running back.
Offense (5 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #60   Adj. Rush Yards: #24    Adj. Pass Yards: #41
Anthony Alridge provided the push for the offense, gaining nearly 1,600 yards for the season. He's gone, and while sophomores Andre Kohn and Terrance Ganaway should do an adequate job as replacements, the loss hurts. The Cougars' third leading rusher was QB Case Keenum, who along with Blake Joseph passed for 3,500 yards and 23 TDs. Both QBs are back, but they lose five of their top six targets as they move into a spread offense under new head coach Kevin Sumlin. The O-line loses two full-time starters but returns the other three, plus a 5th year senior (SirVincent Rogers) who sat out last year.
Defense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #85    Adj. Rush Def: #52    Adj. Pass Def: #52
The defense wasn't bad last year against the run or the pass, but they gave up a lot of points. With three starters back up front (now a 4-3) including Phillip Hunt (10.5 sacks), the rushing defense should be even better, and the passing defense is in good shape with an experienced secondary that returns every starter except leading tackler Rocky Schwartz. Only one linebacker returns but overall the defense should improve so that their scoring D more closely resembles their yardage yields.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Chase Turner averaged 42.7 yards per punt last year (with good hangtime) but netted just 31.2, as the fielding squad was one of the nation's worst. The Cougars lose kicker T.J. Lawrence, who was good at short distances (54/55 PATs) but mediocre mid-to-long range, but Ben Bell, the starter from '06, returns.
Recruiting: Houston's last two classes have been a mixed back. Good when compared to other CUSA schools, but nationwide somewhere in the lower third quartile. This is Sumlin's first year, so he can't be judged yet, but as a brand new head coach the odds of him recruiting significantly better than Art Briles did are low.

Houston 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Southern	74%	W
9/6	Sat	@	Oklahoma State	31%	L
9/13	Sat	vs.	Air Force	56%	W
9/20	Sat	@	Colorado State	50%	W
9/27	Sat	@	*East Carolina	38%	L
10/11	Sat	vs.	*UAB	66%	W
10/18	Sat	@	*Southern Methodist	57%	W
10/28	Tue	@	*Marshall	50%	L
11/8	Sat	vs.	*Tulane	61%	W
11/15	Sat	vs.	*Tulsa	44%	L
11/22	Sat	vs.	*Texas-El Paso	60%	W
11/29	Sat	@	*Rice	56%	W
Favored: 8-4   Projected: 6-6

2008 Season Outlook Last year Houston finished the regular season 8-4 without beating a single winning team. This caused them to be significantly overrated, and though they don't slip too much this season, that's from a much lower start than people realize.

But though they lost to every winning team they faced, they didn't lose to any losing teams either, which let them rack up the wins on an easy schedule that included 0-11 Div I-AA Texas Southern. 

This year's schedule isn't any harder, either, meaning the Cougars will only slip a notch in results as well. I favor them in eight games this year, with a few very close contests. All those close games add up to a six win projection, but either way Houston should be bowl eligible again, and if the ball bounces their way—and the spread offense works against real foes as well as it did in the spring game—they could match last season's record.