2008 Pre-season 120: #71-75 - Hawaii down; Duke, Miami in dead heat

SportsRatings is ranking all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August until the season begins. These rankings are meant to reflect how good the teams might be in 2008 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for each team, and two projected records are given: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and another cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty in the predictions. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. (Schedule listings adapted from James Howell's site)

This installment covers teams from #71 to #75. To see the full list, click here.

71. Hawai'i Warriors

2007 Results:    Record: 12-1    Bowl: Lost to Georgia 41-10 (Sugar Bowl)  Poll finish: #19 AP #17 USA 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #54    Success: #12    Combined: #41
Vastly overrated last year in terms of real strength, the Warriors had an amazing undefeated regular season against a weak schedule. But numerous losses at key positions and a coaching change bring them back down to earth in 2008.
Offense (3 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #23   Adj. Rush Yards: #120    Adj. Pass Yards: #2
Only Texas Tech had a better passing game than Hawaii last season. But unlike Tech, the Warriors don't return the key components of that attack. First and foremost, Colt Brennan is gone after passing for 4,343 yards and 38 TDs with a 70.4% completion rate. Backup Tyler Graunke subbed well for Brennan a few time last year, with 1,234 yards and 10 TDs (65.4%, 6 INT), but he's had academic problems and is missed fall practice, leaving the door slightly open for Inoke Funaki (3TDs last year) or others. But that's just the tip of the iceberg. Gone are the four leading pass catchers, including 1,000 yard receivers Ryan Grice-Mullen, Davone Bess, and Jason Rivers. The offensive line loses 1st team All-American Hercules Satele, but three starters return and with all their running backs still in house, maybe it's time to improve that last-in-the-nation ground game?
Defense (4 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #82    Adj. Rush Def: #56    Adj. Pass Def: #34
Last year's coordinator Greg McMackin, who has experience at the pro level, improved the Warrior defense a lot last season and takes over as head coach. Overall the Hawaii D wasn't terrible, but it couldn't keep up with the offense, which scored so quickly the D found itself on the field a lot. Only Fale Laeli returns to the front four as a starter, but two linebackers—the team's top tacklers, Solomon Elimimian and Adam Leonard—are back. Two part-time starters are back in the secondary, plus Ryan Mouton, who may be the star of the unit. Though returning starters are few in number, a large percentage of the defensive reserves return to fill the remaining holes.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Both kicker Dan Kelly (70 of 74 PATs) and punter Tim Grasso (39.7 ave.) return for 2008.
Recruiting: June Jones proved you don't need to have stellar recruiting to win at Hawaii; Colt Brennan was a transfer, for example. Hawaii's last two classes rank roughly 80th in the nation, i.e., lower than 2/3 of all I-A schools. With so many wide receivers gone, some redshirt freshmen should see action at that position along with JUCO transfers Javonte Taylor and Dustin Blount.

Hawai'i 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	@	Florida	10%	L
9/6	Sat	vs.	Weber State	74%	W
9/13	Sat	@	Oregon State	37%	L
9/27	Sat	vs.	*San Jose State	66%	W
10/4	Sat	@	*Fresno State	35%	L
10/11	Sat	vs.	*Louisiana Tech	63%	W
10/17	Fri	@	*Boise State	35%	L
10/25	Sat	vs.	*Nevada	57%	W
11/1	Sat	@	*Utah State	58%	W
11/8	Sat	@	*New Mexico State	65%	W
11/22	Sat	vs.	*Idaho	67%	W
11/29	Sat	vs.	Washington State	50%	W
12/6	Sat	vs.	Cincinnati	37%	L
Favored: 8-5  Projected: 7-6

2008 Season Outlook It's not surprising that Hawaii plays much better at home, given the several-thousand-mile flights required for road games (and the same suffered by teams visiting Honolulu). Last season demonstrated this contrast. On the road, the Warriors needed overtime to beat mediocre teams Louisiana Tech and San Jose State, and squeaked past Nevada 28-26. At home, they blew away similar opponents and were able to get past the only winning teams on their schedule, Fresno State and Boise State, as well as Pac-10 Washington. 

Finally, though, they faced a winning team outside of Hawaii, and it was essentially a home game for Georgia. The results were entirely predictable.

So while I haven't granted the Warriors any extra home field advantage, or road disadvantage, looking at this year's schedule we can mentally adjust for it. The road game at Florida and home contest against Weber State are pretty obvious, and generally Hawaii is favored at home and underdogs on the road anyway. The home game against Washington State is listed as a very close win, but is probably more certain than that. Likewise, the road wins vs. Utah State and Nevada should be scrutinized, and there may be the potential for upsetting Cincinnati, though that is still unlikely. All in all, Gators and Bearcats notwithstanding, the Warriors still have an easy schedule and should manage a winning record in their 13 game schedule. They won't get back to the Sugar Bowl, but considering their personnel losses they would have to be somewhat pleased with a result like this.

72. Miami Hurricanes

2007 Results:    Record: 5-7    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #74    Success: #72    Combined: #74
Losses to the pros and uncertainty at quarterback halt the 'Canes march back to quality; though strong recruiting stems Miami's decline, unfortunate scheduling may make it appeear the program is still in trouble.
Offense (4 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #83   Adj. Rush Yards: #57    Adj. Pass Yards: #110
The Hurricanes' problems start at quarterback. Though Kyle Wright and Kirby Freeman didn't excel by any means last year, their departures leave no experience at the position. The contest at Quarterback U. comes down to redshirt freshman Robert Marve vs. true freshman Jacory Harris, and coach Randy Shannon has said he'll use both, likely meaning neither has lit up the practice field. Time to emphasize the run, which worked much better last year anyway? The three top backs return, including Graig Cooper and starter Javarris James and both should be healthier this year. The O-line returns two starters and gains coach's son Xavier Shannon from FIU (another example of the grad-student-in-obscure-program instant-transfer rule that is so popular this season).
Defense (5 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #62    Adj. Rush Def: #58    Adj. Pass Def: #47
The defense was set to make gains this year, but top players Calais Cambell and Kenny Phillips bolted for the pros. The result is another questionable year, and Shannon hired Bill Young from Kansas to replace Tim Walton as coordinator. The best returning player on the front four is Eric Moncur, who has been having some kind of health trouble in fall camp. At linebacker they bring in a slew of highly -touted freshman to shore things up, and two starters return in the secondary to soften the blow of losing Phillips. Overall, though, the Canes lose their top four tacklers from last season, and while improvement is still a possibility, they are far from having the dominant Miami defenses of the last few decades.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Punter Matt Bosher returns, having averaged 40 yards and 35 net as a redshirt freshman. Kickers Francesco Zampogna and Daren Daly move on, leaving an opening that may be filled by Bosher or true frosh Jake Wieclaw.
Recruiting: Miami's recruiting under Randy Shannon has made a great recovery. From his first (partial) class that ranked 14th to the 2008 crop in ranked the top five, Miami will have a plethora of new talent to exploit this season, filling in holes and even taking on key roles. The best example is at quarterback, of course, as well as kicker and linebacker. True freshman Aldarius Johnson is starting at wide receiver, and Marcus Forston may start at defensive tackle. In all, nine players enrolled early to make spring practice. The incoming players from these two classes will stanch the bleeding in the program this season and lead its recovery in future years.

Miami 2008 schedule & forecast
8/28	Thu	vs.	Charleston Southern	90%	W
9/6	Sat	@	Florida	9%	L
9/20	Sat	@	Texas A&M	36%	L
9/27	Sat	vs.	*North Carolina	41%	L
10/4	Sat	vs.	*Florida State	39%	L
10/11	Sat	vs.	Central Florida	48%	L
10/18	Sat	@	*Duke	47%	L
10/25	Sat	vs.	*Wake Forest	40%	L
11/1	Sat	@	*Virginia	43%	L
11/13	Thu	vs.	*Virginia Tech	40%	L
11/20	Thu	@	*Georgia Tech	44%	L
11/29	Sat	@	*North Carolina State	51%	W
Favored: 2-10  Projected: 5-7

2008 Season Outlook Things weren't going so bad mid-way through 2007. The hope had been that the dismal 2006 season (7-6) was the low point off of which the program would bounce. Despite being destroyed at Oklahoma, they blasted Texas A&M and were 4-1. They lost to UNC after rallying from 27-0 down, and lost at home to Georgia Tech but beat Florida State in Tallahassee and were 5-3. Then they had another late collapse, losing four in a row, including an embarrassing 48-0 stomp by Virginia in the Canes' last game in the Orange Bowl. Instead of a bounce, there was further decline from the previous season, especially on defense in later games.

The 2008 Hurricane schedule, too, is not favorable. After the first game, Miami travels to the swamp, and after that the teams they could beat at home (Virginia, Georgia Tech) are all on the road. They even come out to slight underdogs to Duke on the road. The home contests are against better teams. I have them favored only in the opener and the closer, and it could be a long year for Miami. But bulk of the season is a stretch of games which should be very close; the odds of winning some of these (UCF and Duke are strong probabilities) should put them closer to last year's record than 2-10, but still I don't foresee improvement in record or bowl eligibility unless the the new freshmen—including whoever takes over as quarterback—exceed expectations.

73. Duke Blue Devils

2007 Results:    Record: 1-11    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #95    Success: #113    Combined: #95
Duke made a lot of progress last year; it just didn't show up in the W column. It will this season.
Offense (6.5 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #92    Adj. Rush Yards: #115    Adj. Pass Yards: #75
Thaddeus Lewis is a talented QB who had 21 TD passes and only 10 INTs, which is an accomplishment when playing for a team like Duke, who has little running game to take pressure off. He's back along with top wide receiver Eron Riley. Three starters return on the line for improved protection, and hopefully to help leading rusher Re'quan Boyette—who had just 432 yards, and is now sidelined indefinitely after knee surgery—or his backups gain more ground. No one's going to run in fear of this offense but it should be a step up from '07.
Defense (10 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #91    Adj. Rush Def: #75    Adj. Pass Def: #109
The pass defense is where Duke fell apart mainly, and three of four starters return to the fold, which should help matters. Essentially the entire front four is back, and the linebacking corps is solid too, in terms of experience. Duke returns seven of their top eight tacklers, 10 of 11 starters, and 16 of 22 on the 2nd and 3rd string; this unit should be the best Duke has had in a while.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Punter Kevin Jones is back after averaging a mediocre 38 ypp, but he's reliable compared to the placekickers. Last season Duke made just 3 of 10 between Nick Maggio and Joe Surgan. This is a big problem area for the Blue Devils if they are to increase their scoring.
Recruiting: New coach David Cutcliffe takes over a program where expectations are worse than the team's actual recruiting level. The 2007 and 2008 classes are just below average for the nation, while the team has been far worse than that. With so much experience returning, there may be little room for new players but if the team rises to the level of recruiting in the next few years that alone will look like a great success.

Duke 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	James Madison	53%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	Northwestern	52%	W
9/13	Sat	vs.	Navy	58%	W
9/27	Sat	vs.	*Virginia	49%	L
10/4	Sat	@	*Georgia Tech	43%	L
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Miami (Florida)	53%	W
10/25	Sat	@	Vanderbilt	42%	L
11/1	Sat	@	*Wake Forest	33%	L
11/8	Sat	vs.	*North Carolina State	58%	W
11/15	Sat	@	*Clemson	21%	L
11/22	Sat	@	*Virginia Tech	33%	L
11/29	Sat	vs.	*North Carolina	40%	L
Favored: 5-7  Projected: 5-7

2008 Season Outlook Instead of losing a lot of games by a lot of points, Duke made progress last year by losing a lot of games by a lot fewer points.

After beating Northwestern on the road in the third game of the 2007 season, the Blue Devils nearly beat Navy, were close to Miami again, and should have beaten North Carolina in the season finale. There were no shutouts suffered in '08 compared to three in '07.

The schedule is very favorable this year. The first four games are at home, and the Blue Devils have a shot in all of them. Though tight, they should beat James Madison and again Northwestern, while Navy has fallen a lot and Virginia is vulnerable. After that, they could get their first victory over Miami after coming so close the last two years, and N.C.State provides a likely ACC home win. Duke should finish with five wins for the year, and with really good luck could be bowl eligible. Of course many of these wins are iffy, but it's pretty certain that they'll exceed last year's total.

74. New Mexico Lobos

2007 Results:    Record: 9-4    Bowl: Beat Nevada 23-0 (New Mexico Bowl)    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #61    Success: #56    Combined: #61
The Lobos are down a notch this year on both offense and defense but return enough key players to keep them competitive overall in the Mountain West.
Offense (5 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #86   Adj. Rush Yards: #83    Adj. Pass Yards: #48
The two key players are back: quarterback Donovan Porterie, who threw for just over 3,000 yards (15 TDs) and 1,000 yard rusher Rodney Ferguson (13 TDs). It's the supporting cast that's spotty. Only one starter, center Eric Cook, returns on the line, and the Lobos lose two 1,000 yard receivers in Marcus Smith and Travis Brown. It may be hard for both Porterie and Ferguson to repeat their '07 stats.
Defense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #36   Adj. Rush Def: #37    Adj. Pass Def: #11
The Lobo defense held opponents to 10 or less five times last year, and the pass defense was especially good. It will be strong again with three starters back in the secondary. The rushing defense will probably suffer, as only Wesely Beck returns in the front three, and all three pure linebackers must be replaced in the 3-3-5 scheme. The Lobos are set at the "Lobo" position, a hybrid linebacker/secondary spot, with starter Clint McPeek returning and leading tackler Ian Clark backing him up. New defensive coordinator Troy Reffett has suggested he may put one of them at a true linebacker position so both can start.
Kicking Game (0 RS): The Lobos must replace both kicker John Sullivan (29 of 35 FGs) and punter Jordan Scott (38.0). Matt Barnard has some punting experience, but the new kicker will either be a redshirt freshman or a true freshman walk-on.
Recruiting: New Mexico's recruiting is well below the level of progress the program has made. This is either a complement or criticism of head coach Rocky Long. The last two classes rank about 90th in the nation, and with recently-announced sanctions on the school that place limits on recruiting, it probably won't be getting better any time soon. This year to shore up the offensive line, Long brought in a bunch of solid JUCO players, and a number of redshirt freshmen will contribute on defense.

New Mexico 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	*Texas Christian	43%	L
9/6	Sat	vs.	Texas A&M	42%	L
9/13	Sat	vs.	Arizona	37%	L
9/20	Sat	@	Tulsa	40%	L
9/27	Sat	@	New Mexico State	64%	W
10/4	Sat	vs.	*Wyoming	54%	W
10/11	Sat	@	*Brigham Young	28%	L
10/18	Sat	vs.	*San Diego State	61%	W
10/23	Thu	@	*Air Force	51%	W
11/1	Sat	vs.	*Utah	35%	L
11/8	Sat	@	*Nevada-Las Vegas	51%	W
11/15	Sat	@	*Colorado State	52%	W
Favored: 6-6  Projected: 6-6

2008 Season Outlook Last season's 9 wins included four by three points each, and only one victory over a winning team. They finished strong in the New Mexico Bowl by stomping Nevada 23-0. It was one of the rare times that both the offense and defense played to their potential in the same game.

Next year looks to be a bit tougher. Four tough games open the season, and the Lobos could be 0-4 before winning at rival New Mexico State. They should recover nicely, but the Mountain West is home to two very good teams this year. Still, I have them winning most of their conference games, even the majority of the road games, though many should be close. That's okay, though—New Mexico has ample experience winning the close games. And if they emerge from September with two or three wins, the season could be a lot better. I don't see them being able to match nine wins in '08 however.

75. Central Michigan Chippewas

2007 Results:    Record: 8-6    Bowl: Lost 51-48 to Purdue (Motor City bowl)    Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #78    Success: #73    Combined: #78
A great offense and terrible defense worked well enough in the MAC last year for Chippewas to win the league title. That won't work in this year's MAC, so Central Michigan's defense has to improve. Both side of the ball are better in '08, but will it be enough?
Offense (8 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #29   Adj. Rush Yards: #56    Adj. Pass Yards: #27
Dan LeFevour is suddenly all over the place; he's been discovered by the college football establishment that normally only pays attention to the major conferences. But look what he had to do to get recognition: pass for 3,652 yards and 27 TDs at a 65.4% completion rate; and rush for 1,122 net yards and 19 TDs. The "20/20 club" Tim Tebow was so fawned over for founding? LeFevour was one rushing TD away from becoming the 2nd member. And he did become the 2nd member of Vince Young's 3,000/1,000 club. LeFevour, a junior, is back along with his two top receivers Bryan Anderson and Antonio Brown (both over 1,000 yards), running back Justin Hoskins (10 TDs), and four starters on the offensive line. This offense should be fearsome in 2008, definitely one of the top 25 in the nation.
Defense (8 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #113    Adj. Rush Def: #74    Adj. Pass Def: #120
The defense has a lot farther to go to reach elite status, especially against the pass, where they rank dead last. Not that the rushing defense is stellar, either, but it's reasonable for the MAC. Luckily both get a boost: Essentially three of the front four return with extra depth at defensive end, and almost all of the secondary remains intact. They did lose safety E.J. McLaughlin to academics recently; let's hope the others have done their homework both on and off the field. At linebacker they lose Red Keith and Ike Brown, their two top tacklers from '07 and two of the better defenders ever to play for the Chippewas. But Nick Bellore returns and '06 starter Calvin Hissong will ease the losses. Overall the D should be a lot better, with the rushing defense stauncher and the pass defense at least not nearly as horrendous.
Kicking Game (1 RS): So-so punter Tony Mikulec is gone; redshirt sophomore Brett Hartmann is taking over. Kicker Andrew Aguila returns; he has decent range and in '07 he made 60 of 64 extra points but was inaccurate outside the 30.
Recruiting: Though they are the current MAC power, the Chippewas' recruiting has not caught up with the team's success. You would think they were a lower-ranking MAC team or a Sun Belt member from their 100th+ class rankings in 2007 and 2008. They still manage some standout recruits, such as running back Jahleel Addae, who may see action this year, especially if backup Ontario Sneed doesn't recover fully from an off-season injury.

Central Michigan 2008 schedule & forecast
8/28	Thu	vs.	Eastern Illinois	74%	W
9/6	Sat	@	Georgia	17%	L
9/13	Sat	@	*Ohio	55%	W
9/20	Sat	@	Purdue	39%	L
9/27	Sat	vs.	*Buffalo	57%	W
10/11	Sat	vs.	*Temple	57%	W
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Western Michigan	56%	W
10/25	Sat	@	*Toledo	51%	W
11/1	Sat	@	Indiana	42%	L
11/12	Wed	@	*Northern Illinois	58%	W
11/19	Wed	vs.	*Ball State	47%	L
11/28	Fri	@	*Eastern Michigan	53%	W
Favored: 8-4  Projected: 6-6

2008 Season Outlook Take Purdue out of the equation and Central Michigan had a wonderful 2007. Actually all of the Chippewa losses were painful in one way or another, it's just that the Boilermakers got them twice: once early in the season in West Lafayette, 44-22, and then in the Motor City Bowl closer to home, 51-48, where Purdue took a big lead but watched LeFevour tie the game before Purdue hit a last second field goal.

The 52-7 loss to Kansas and 70-21 at Clemson were painful for obvious reasons. The loss to Eastern Michigan stung for three reasons: losing to a rival, at home, by just a field goal. The North Dakota State game? At home, to a Division I-AA team, by a score of 44-14. The common thread to all these losses is defensive inadequacy; the Chippewas gave up an average of 52 points in their losing efforts. No offense can overcome that burden.  

They face Purdue again, as well as Indiana, and even Georgia, all on the road. All look like losses, but it will be interesting to see how, say, Georgia does defending against Central Michigan. They shut down Hawaii last year and Boise State in 2005, but I think they'll have more trouble with LeFevour. Georgia's offense will likely shred the Chippewas like they did those other schools, but the opposite matchup will be fun to watch. Eastern Illinois is a generous substitute for North Dakota State. In conference, it looks like another good yearr; they best last year's regular-season 7-5 mark. The MAC is much improved, but Central Michigan has a shot at winning it again.