2008 pre-season 120: #7 West Virginia Mountaineers, #8 Kansas Jayhawks

SportsRatings is ranking all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August until the season begins. These rankings are meant to reflect how good the teams might be in 2008 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for each team, and two projected records are given: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and another cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty in the predictions. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. (Schedule listings adapted from James Howell's site)

This installment covers teams #7 and #8. To see the full list, click here.

7. West Virginia Mountaineers     (pre-season AP #8, USA/Coaches #8)

2007 Results:   Record: 11-2   Bowl: Beat Oklahoma 48-28 (Fiesta Bowl)  Poll finish: #6 AP #6 USA
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #1    Success: #4    Combined: #2
Last year's best team by some measures, the Mountaineers lose head coach Rich Rodriguez, running back Steve Slaton, and a lot on defense, but most importantly have Heisman candidate Patrick White back.
Offense (8 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #5   Adj. Rush Yards: #2  Adj. Pass Yards: #114
A few seasons ago, the loss of running back Steve Slaton was a day no Mountaineer fan wanted to imagine. But now that it's happened, it doesn't seem so terrible. First, Slaton's production decreased, as QB Pat White outgained him on the ground last year, 1,335 yards to 1,051; then, Noel Devine emerged as a force at running back and a more-than-adequate replacement. Of course they'll miss Slaton's 17 TDs, but having White and Devine (657 yards, 6 TDs) back is great reassurance. White also ran for 14 TDs, and passed for another 14 TDs and 1,724 yards with just 4 interceptions. The low INT figure and White's 67% completion rate suggests that the passing game could be successfully upscaled from last year's meager figures, which would help limit injuries to White, and new head coach Bill Stewart has said this is a goal of the offense. Leading receiver Darius Reynaud (12 TDs) is gone, and although two starters—Dorrell Jalloh and Tito Gozales—return, they had but 2 TDs between them and will be counted on to step it up. What gives the offense great potential to be just as effective as last year is the offensive line. Five starters return, led by seniors Ryan Stanchek at left tackle and center Mike Dent, with solid guards Greg Isdaner and Jake Figner, and Selvish Capers at right tackle. Backup Eric Rodemoyer started the first half of last year and he was recently dismissed from the team, but they gain transfer John Hafferty who started at Kansas State. Throw in three others with starting experience and one of the nation's top recruits in Josh Jenkins and you have one of the best offensive lines in the country; they would probably be THE best if Rodemoyer was still with them.
Defense (4 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #6   Adj. Rush Def: #27    Adj. Pass Def: #6
The defense loses a lot of talent, and is the big gap in the Mountaineers' national title aspirations. Only four starters are back in the 3-3-5; one up front, two linebackers, and one in the secondary. The front line loses the two best players, Johnny Dingle (9 sacks) and Keilin Dykes, while returning Scooter Berry. But '06 starter Pat Liebig was recently granted a 6th year of eligibility, and the damage to the rushing defense could be minimized with two solid linebackers, Reed Williams and Mortty Ivy returning. The duo were the team's top tacklers in 2007 and had 7 sacks and 2 interceptions between them. They lose Marc Magro, #3 tackler, who had 8 sacks by himself. The secondary, which went from terrible in 2006 to fantastic in 2007, loses four of five starters. Quinton Andrews is the lone returnee; he had one interception while the other starters had nine. Worse, likely starter Charles Pugh was dismissed from the team this summer over credit card fraud allegations. This still should be a good defense, but it won't match last year's scoring or passing defense rankings by a long shot.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Senior Pat McAfee returns to handle both kicking and punting chores. He averaged 42.7 per punt with a great 37.8 net, and made 13 of 19 field goals.
Recruiting: There was a noticeable dropoff from 2007 to 2008, perhaps due to the coaching change. The 2007 class ranked about 20th, the 2008 class roughly 40th. From '07, Bradley Starks has captured the open wide receiver start, despite being a high school QB. True freshmen that could contribute right away include running back Mark Rodgers and cornerback Robert Sands. JUCOs Tevita Finau, Brantwon Bowser, and D.J. Shaw could be immediate backups on defense.
2008 Season Outlook: Up until the last game of the season, 2007 went about as well as West Virginia fans could have hoped, being both optimistic and realistic. Asking for an undefeated season is a bit much, but a 1-loss year was realistic, and with luck should get a team to the BCS title game. Both looked imminent for the Mountaineers. They plowed through a light non-conference schedule that in fairness contained two bowl teams, Maryland and East Carolina. They were upset by South Florida, but recovered to beat Syracuse, Mississippi State, and even Rutgers and Louisville. From a pre-season vantage point those last two wins looked significant, but as it turned out Rutgers and Louisville weren't the real Big East roadblocks: those were Cincinnati and Connecticut. But the Mountaineers bested Cincy and overwhelmed Connecticut, 66-21, and with other things falling into place, they were one game—at home, against Pitt—from facing Ohio State in the BCS title game. But the Pitt defense was particularly staunch that day, and Pat White injured his thumb, and West Virginia just couldn't get the job done. Losing 13-9, they still won the Big East and went to the Fiesta bowl, where they clubbed a great Oklahoma team 48-28. They were one of the many teams that could claim to be the best in 2007, but when it counted they fell short.

West Virginia 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Villanova	88%	W
9/6	Sat	@	East Carolina	71%	W
9/18	Thu	@	Colorado	64%	W
9/27	Sat	vs.	Marshall	89%	W
10/4	Sat	vs.	*Rutgers	67%	W
10/11	Sat	vs.	*Syracuse	92%	W
10/23	Thu	vs.	Auburn	61%	W
11/1	Sat	@	*Connecticut	57%	W
11/8	Sat	vs.	*Cincinnati	65%	W
11/22	Sat	@	*Louisville	74%	W
11/28	Fri	@	*Pittsburgh	60%	W
12/6	Sat	vs.	*South Florida	51%	W
Favored: 12-0  Projected: 8-4

Once again, Mountaineer fans can be realistically optimistic about the team's chances to go to the BCS title game. And 11-1 looks like a real possibility, but that might not get them there if they lose the final game to South Florida and the Bulls take their place. West Virginia's season has two stages this year: the first 11 games, and the USF finale. The first half of the year should put up little resistance, though the Colorado road trip may be interesting, and if they aren't 6-0 by the midpoint, title hopes are pretty much dashed. The first big test is Auburn, whom the Mountaineers host, then the game at Connecticut follows. A trip to Pitt at the end of November offers a chance for revenge. All of these games are tough, but are very winnable and West Virginia could easily be 11-0 or 10-1 before the USF game. That one is a toss-up from this vantage point. By that time there may be a very clear favorite, but right now it looks like the winner wins the Big East, thus going to a BCS bowl if not the BCS bowl. If White is hobbled by minor injuries all year, and teams find they can once again pick apart the secondary as they could in 2006, then the 8-4 cumulative projection could come true, but I see this team as at least 10-2: 10-1 or 11-0 for the first 11, then winning or losing the USF showdown, which has the potential to be the biggest game of the regular season.

8. Kansas Jayhawks      (pre-season AP #14, USA/Coaches #13)

2007 Results:  Record:12-1  Bowl: beat Virginia Tech 24-21 (Orange Bowl)  Poll finish:#7 AP #7 USA
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #5     Success: #5     Combined: #5
Kansas is mentioned often as one of the teams that will take a great fall back to reality this year. While this may come true, it's more due to schedule and the glut of top teams in the Big Twelve this year (four of the top eight, by my pre-season rankings). Even though they're still a top ten team, it's very unlikely they'll finish the season there again.
Offense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #7    Adj. Rush Yards: #41    Adj. Pass Yards: #21
Like the defense, the offense's yardage stats didn't jibe with their far better scoring rating; this is because Kansas was 1st in the nation in turnover margin. One reason for that was QB Todd Reesing, who had simply an incredible year leading Kansas in their dream season, throwing for nearly 3,500 yards and 33 TDs against just 7 interceptions. Not mentioned enough, he should be considered one of the many Heisman-level quarterbacks this year. He'll miss his best target, Marcus Henry, with his 1,014 yards and 10 TDs, and even d-back Aqib Talib's 8 receptions (since 4 were for TDs), but two starting receivers—Dexton Fields and Dezmon Briscoe—are back and combined for 1,330 yards and 13 TDs. The one to really miss is running back Brandon McAndrews, who ran for 1,125 yards and 16 TDs. Backup Jake Sharp is solid (821 yards and 7 TDs), and JUCO hotshot Jocques Crawford will help matters. Until recently, KU was very deep at the position, but three backs either quit or are ineligible; still, Sharp and Crawford should be a good one-two combo. The offensive line is a mixed bag. At three positions, the Jayhawks are rock-solid, with full-time senior starters Ryan Cantrell at center and Chet Hartley and Adrian Mayes at guards. But redshirt freshmen are set to take over at both tackle positions, replacing All-American Anthony Collins and 4-year starter Cesar Rodriguez. If everything works out the offense could be almost as good as last year's, but it may take some time.
Defense (9 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #5      Adj. Rush Def: #12     Adj. Pass Def: #38
The main thing missing from the defense is Aqib Talib, who had 5 interceptions, 2 of which he ran back for touchdowns, including a game-breaker in the Orange Bowl. Other than he and James McClintock at tackle, the defense is pretty much intact from the group that stopped the run effectively, and bent a bit on pass coverage but forced a lot of turnovers to make up for it. This unit could be just as good as last year's #5 in adjusted scoring defense, though their raw ranking (#4) will suffer with the much harder schedule. Three linemen return, and with the help of three returning linebackers—Mike Riviera, Joe Mortensen, and James Holt, the team's three leading tacklers, they may be able to repeat their great rushing defense stats. But the concern in the Big Twelve this year is passing defense. Three starters return in the secondary, with experienced reserves, though with Talib gone and without '06 starter Anthony Webb (dismissed), they'll still have their hands full in their conference. Chris Harris, Darrell Stuckey, and Justin Thornton combined for nine interceptions last year, and they'll need to continue the team's turnover-hungry ways to make the difference in big games.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Things have gone from bad to worse lately for the kicking game. Already needing to replace kicker Scott Webb (18 of 26 FGs) and punter Kyle Tucker (38.9 ave), the fall camp saw expected replacement kicker Stephen Hoge quit the team, while Brian Blackwell left earlier, and Air Force transfer Jacob Branstetter may have eligibility issues; meanwhile punter Kyle Davis also quit. Sophomore Alonso Rojas is the 1st team punter for now, and JUCO Grady Fowler is the only other kicker on the roster. Of all KU's high-profile losses, this might be the one that really bites them if they don't find a solution.
Recruiting: Mark Mangino built the team on players everyone else either missed or dismissed as unworthy. With their recent success, they should be able to go after more of the stars. Crawford, the aforementioned JUCO running back, is a great catch. And the two redshirt freshmen set to start on the offensive line—Jeff Spikes and Jeremiah Hatch—will be greats someday according to the coach. Wide receiver Daymond Patterson, defensive lineman Darius Parish and cornerback Corrigan Powell are the true freshmen on the 2-deep lineup.
2008 Season Outlook: 2007 was pretty magical for KU fans, with the football team nearly achieving the success that the basketball team did a few months later. The first four games, even if against weak opposition, showed that Kansas was a powerhouse, as they won by a combined 214-23. Central Michigan, whom they beat 52-7, went to a bowl game. But once the conference season started, the only teams they'd dominate in that manner were Baylor and Iowa State. Kansas State, Colorado, and Texas A&M, all mid-level teams, put up a lot of resistance. KU hung 76 points on Nebraska but gave up 39, and beat Oklahoma State 43-28. So the offense and defense that worked flawlessly and amazingly against lesser opponents still got the job done, but it was rocky at times. When they finally faced a top-25 caliber team, they fell to Missouri, 36-28. But Missouri wasn't just top 25, they were top 10 (or top 5). KU got another chance against Virginia Tech and beat the Hokies 24-21, proving they could handle tough competition. Still, the naysayers believe their success was due to their schedule, and some of it was. But more of it was due to talent.

Kansas 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Florida International	100%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	Louisiana Tech	92%	W
9/13	Sat	@	South Florida	44%	L
9/20	Sat	vs.	Sam Houston State	97%	W
10/4	Sat	@	*Iowa State	81%	W
10/11	Sat	vs.	*Colorado	71%	W
10/18	Sat	@	*Oklahoma	44%	L
10/25	Sat	vs.	*Texas Tech	51%	W
11/1	Sat	vs.	*Kansas State	73%	W
11/8	Sat	@	*Nebraska	66%	W
11/15	Sat	vs.	*Texas	60%	W
11/29	Sat	N	*Missouri	49%	L
Favored: 9-3  Projected: 8-4

Kansas has three of the easiest games of 2008, and three of the hardest. FIU, Louisiana Tech, and Sam Houston State are all gimmes, while USF and Oklahoma on the road and Missouri in Kansas City are killers. This Jayhawk team will have to prove itself many times, and has Texas Tech and Texas to boot, though those are at home and (barely) winnable. This is a case where the cumulative projection may be the more accurate, as it's impossible to say which games Kansas has a chance in of the close ones. 7-5 and 6-6 are even possibilities depending on how a few other teams, like Nebraska, improve. The Jayhawks do have seven home games, and a chance at beating Missouri, so I'm thinking they'll get to nine wins—if not in the regular season, then by winning a bowl game that will definitely be beneath their actual quality level as an 8-4 team.