College football 2008 Pre-season 120: #66-70 - Irish need another year

SportsRatings is ranking all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August until the season begins. These rankings are meant to reflect how good the teams might be in 2008 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for each team, and two projected records are given: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and another cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty in the predictions. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. (Schedule listings adapted from James Howell's site)

This installment covers teams from #66 to #70. To see the full list, click here.

66. Indiana Hoosiers

2007 Results:    Record: 7-6    Bowl: Lost to Tulsa 49-33 (Insight Bowl)    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #64    Success: #69    Combined: #64
The Hoosiers went to a bowl in Bill Lynch's first year; with Kellen Lewis back, can they win one his second?
Offense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #53   Adj. Rush Yards: #69    Adj. Pass Yards: #67
Kellen Lewis complete 60% of his attempts for over 3,000 yards and 28 TDs and 10 INTs in 2007, also leading the team in rushing (736 yd. net, 9 TDs). So it's no wonder there was a great sigh of relief in Bloomington when he was reinstated to the team after a four-month suspension for the ever-popular "violation of team rules."  The offense returns running back Marcus Thigpen and two starting receivers, but a huge (6' 7" to be exact) loss is James Hardy, who caught 16 of Lewis' TD passes last season. Sometimes one key receiver can make a QB look great, and I wouldn't be surprised if Lewis' numbers are down this year, especially after missing spring and the O-line a bit of a question with two starters back.
Defense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #73    Adj. Rush Def: #60    Adj. Pass Def: #88
The Hoosier front four will be the key to the defense. Last season's rushing defense was just average, but this year it should be solid with three excellent starters returning and two starting linebackers behind them. Despite tallying 19 interceptions—not to mention great pressure from defensive end Greg Middleton who led the nation with 16 sacks—the secondary was vulnerable in '07. This year safeties Nick Polk and leading tackler Austin Thomas return and they may have Florida transfer Jerimy Finch this year as well, but both corners are gone including Tracy Porter who had 6 interceptions. But almost all of the 2nd and 3rd string defense from last year is back, and the unit as a whole should be better.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Kicker Austin Starr returns, and he is one of the best in the nation, hitting 21 of 23 last season. He's almost automatic even from 45 yards out. Punter Michael Hines is gone, and redshirt freshman Chris Hagerup is taking over after beating out senior Joe Kleinsmith.
Recruiting: Indiana's recruiting is hampered by the fact that most people associate the school with basketball, making it difficult to build a consistent football team. 2nd year coach Lynch is trying to change that of course; his first real class is the '08 class, and it almost ranks in the top half in the nation. An improvement, but to compete in the Big Ten it will have to continue. Emphasizing high school recruits over JUCO transfer and lots of redshirting helps build for the future, thought the immediate impact is lessened. Several redshirt freshman are listed on 2nd string, and two true freshman wide receivers, Tandon Doss and Tyler Adetona, have impressed and may play this season.

Indiana 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Western Kentucky	67%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	Murray State	97%	W
9/20	Sat	vs.	Ball State	51%	W
9/27	Sat	vs.	*Michigan State	46%	L
10/4	Sat	@	*Minnesota	52%	W
10/11	Sat	vs.	*Iowa	51%	W
10/18	Sat	@	*Illinois	38%	L
10/25	Sat	vs.	*Northwestern	56%	W
11/1	Sat	vs.	Central Michigan	58%	W
11/8	Sat	vs.	*Wisconsin	43%	L
11/15	Sat	@	*Penn State	31%	L
11/22	Sat	@	*Purdue	43%	L
Favored: 7-5   Projected: 6-6

2008 Season Outlook The 2007 season went pretty much by the book, with the Hoosiers beating the lesser teams on their schedule and losing to the good ones. The loss to Illinois and the win at Iowa raised eyebrows at the time, but not in retrospect. There were a few disappointments near the end: the loss at Northwestern by three points, and of course the dismal bowl game which wasn't even as close as the score might suggest.

Another successful season seems to be in the works. Indiana only plays five games on the road this year and opens with four at home; the first two should be easy, the 2nd two are tough. Coming out of this 3-1 or better would put them in good shape for the next five games, all of which will be competitive but four are certainly winnable. And they'll need those wins, because the last three games are going to be rough, facing Wisconsin and then Penn State and Purdue on the road. But if the Hoosiers start 7-2, they might have some extra confidence going in; on the other hand, a three-game slide may discourage fans who mistakenly thought the strong start meant a breakthrought season was upon them. The cumulative odds suggest a 6-6 year is more likely than improving last year's regular season mark, though there is an opportunity for the latter.

67. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

2007 Results:    Record: 7-6    Bowl: L to Fresno State 40-28 (Humanitarian Bowl)    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #56    Success: #59    Combined: #56
2008 has all the markings of a rebuilding year for the Yellow Jackets, but there will be some major interest in the team as ex-Navy coach Paul Johnson brings the triple option to Atlanta.
Offense (5 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #73   Adj. Rush Yards: #28    Adj. Pass Yards: #83
The Jackets' offense won't look the same this year. Uneven starting QB Taylor Bennett transferred, and hotshot running back Tashard Choice (1,379 yards 10 TDs) is gone. Johnson's implementation of the option will begin with a lot of new players, but over the next few years that will be a good thing. Sophomore John Nesbitt will run the offense; another soph, 2nd leading rusher Jonathan Dwyer (9 TDs), is set at B-back; and since junior Jamaal Evans has left the team, the A-back starters will be between redshirt freshman Roddy Jones, last year's leading receiver Greg Smith, and receiver Andrew Smith. The equivalent of three starters return on the offensive line, but they have to learn a lot for the new system, in addition to losing weight to become more mobile.
Defense (4 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #38    Adj. Rush Def: #46    Adj. Pass Def: #81
As if a brand new offense weren't enough, GT has a new defensive coordinator as well. The line returns two great starters, tackles Vance Walker and Darryl Richard, with solid backups taking the defensive end spots. But only one starter returns at linebacker and the secondary is questionable, losing three starters with projected replacement starter Jarred Tarrant probably lost for '08 on rape charges. In all the Tech defense loses its top four tacklers.
Kicking Game (0 RS): Solid kicker Travis Bell is gone, and sophomore Scott Blair, who handled kickoffs last year, takes over. But the bigger loss is punter Durant Brooks, who had a 45 yard average and 39.2 net. Junior Mohamed Yahiaoui will attempt to fill his shoes.
Recruiting: Tech's '07 class was a great one, in the top 25 nationally. There was considerable dropoff in '08, which is understandable during a coaching change, but it will be interesting to see how Johnson does recruiting for a run-based option offense in the ACC. Of roughly ten freshmen listed on the two-deep; all but one (receiver Tylor Melton) are from the '07 class.

Georgia Tech 2008 schedule & forecast
8/28	Thu	vs.	Jacksonville State	79%	W
9/6	Sat	@	*Boston College	40%	L
9/13	Sat	@	*Virginia Tech	36%	L
9/20	Sat	vs.	Mississippi State	45%	L
10/4	Sat	vs.	*Duke	57%	W
10/11	Sat	vs.	Gardner-Webb	83%	W
10/18	Sat	@	*Clemson	24%	L
10/25	Sat	vs.	*Virginia	52%	W
11/1	Sat	vs.	*Florida State	42%	L
11/8	Sat	@	*North Carolina	37%	L
11/20	Thu	vs.	*Miami (Florida)	56%	W
11/29	Sat	@	Georgia	21%	L
Favored: 5-7  Projected: 6-6

2008 Season Outlook After starting the season with a 33-3 crushing of Notre Dame in South Bend, the rest of the year was anticlimactic as losses to Boston College, Virginia, and Maryland brought the team back down to earth. They finished a respectable but disappointing 7-5, and lost to Fresno State in their bowl game.

Fans really shouldn't expect Johnson's new offense to work wonders the first year; in fact, there's a split as to whether people think it will work at all in the ACC. But with so many key players from last year gone, it would have been a rebuilding year no matter what, so this year can be designated a learning year for the new system. Despite being a cousin of the now-popular "spread" offense, it will look nothing like anything else played in the conference, so while everyone else in the country is busy defending the pass, Georgia Tech will be the most prominent team operating a run-based option attack.

The '08 schedule is helpful, with two weak I-AA teams to soften the blow. Overall 5-7 looks probable but bowl eligibility is a possibility if they can upset either SEC team on the list. Beating Mississippi State is a lot more likely, but spoiling a perfect Georgia season at the end would be far, far more satisfying, and would make Johnson a hero no matter how the rest of the year turns out.

68. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

2007 Results:    Record: 3-9    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #80    Success: #79    Combined: #81
After last season's debacle, many are predicting a strong rebound for the Irish; hence their 5 votes in the USA-Today coaches poll. With many starters back and strong recruiting, they'll be considerably better than last season, and an easier schedule helps. But they were really, really bad last year and will only be an average team in '08.
Offense (9 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #102    Adj. Rush Yards: #102    Adj. Pass Yards: #115
The problem last year was mainly on the offensive side. The yardage figures were dismal and they were reflected in scoring as well: two shutouts and six games with two touchdowns or less. This season a lot of experience returns, however, starting with QB Jimmy Clausen. A lot has been written about how Clausen has put on 20 lbs. of muscle over the summer. I guess this is considered normal nowadays; if any player, let alone a quarterback, put on 20 pounds of muscle in one year in the 70s, it would have been astounding. He's a growing boy so we won't say anything about how he might have accomplished that. In any case, his meager numbers should increase, and backup Evan Sharpley returns as well if needed, to throw to three returning starters at wide receiver. Four starters return on the line which must improve from last year's performance for pass protection and leading the run. The top three backs return as well. In all, not a bad situation, and they should be a lot better.
Defense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #56    Adj. Rush Def: #65    Adj. Pass Def: #4
The one bright spot in all of Notre Dame's performance last year was the secondary, which finished in the top 5 in adjusted pass yardage allowed. Part of the reason, though, was that running on the Irish was pretty easy for a good team (they were 96th in raw yardarge yielded, but played a very tough schedule, including all-run-all-the-time Navy and Air Force). Pat Kuntz returns on the line but leading tackler Trevor Laws is gone, so linebacker John Ryan moves to defensive end to help. Maurice Crum anchors the linebacking corps, which loses Joe Brockington (and Ryan in the switch) but gains true freshman Steve Filer, one of the top-rated recruits at the position in the country. David Bruton and Terrail Lambert are back on the secondary but Tom Zbikowski went pro and Darren Walls will miss 2008 for personal reasons.
Kicking Game (1.5 RS): Brandon Walker did his part to insure Notre Dame had a low scoring season, hitting only 6 of 12 field goals including 1 of 7 beyond the 30. It's a little troubling that he's still listed as the starting placekicker. Can't Notre Dame recruit a freshman who could do better? Punter Geoff Price will be replaced adequately by last year's part-time punter Eric Maust, who averaged roughly the same (42 yards) as Price.
Recruiting: This area was (wrongfully) blamed for the Irish's woes last season, and is also being cast as their savior this season. Notre Dame had the de facto top class in the nation in 2008 (Alabama's was better, but several of their players won't end up playing for the Tide for various reasons). 2007 was no slouch either (top 10), and the redshirts from that class will be boosting the team, but many (including Clausen) from that class played last season. Of the 2008 class, there are probably over a dozen that could contribute if coach Charlie Weis wants to use them; he singled out running back Jonas Gray, defensive end Ethan Johnson, tight end Kyle Rudolph, and linebacker Filer as true freshman that were doing well in practice, but it remains to be seen who plays and who redshirts.

Notre Dame 2008 schedule & forecast
9/6	Sat	vs.	San Diego State	63%	W
9/13	Sat	vs.	Michigan	42%	L
9/20	Sat	@	Michigan State	37%	L
9/27	Sat	vs.	Purdue	49%	L
10/4	Sat	vs.	Stanford	50%	W
10/11	Sat	@	North Carolina	36%	L
10/25	Sat	@	Washington	41%	L
11/1	Sat	vs.	Pittsburgh	40%	L
11/8	Sat	@	Boston College	40%	L
11/15	Sat	@	Navy	54%	W
11/22	Sat	vs.	Syracuse	65%	W
11/29	Sat	@	Southern California	27%	L
Favored: 4-8  Projected: 5-7

2008 Season Outlook When looking at last season's debacle, one should keep in mind that the schedule was loaded. The Irish's first ten opponents were bowl teams. That's no excuse for going 1-9 against them, but it adds a little perspective. The losing scores themselves are what made last year such an atrocity. Losing 38-0 twice, once at home; getting beat by 30 in the home opener; and giving up 30 or more eight times. The Irish were actually lucky to beat UCLA, and to play Navy so close. They set a record for losses for a Notre Dame team and the Navy loss was the first one in 40 years. They saved themselves from further embarrassment in the last two games by not losing to Duke and Stanford, though they got a lot of help from the Cardinal in the finale.

There are some who think that Notre Dame always bounces back in a big way after a down year, and will do so again in 2008. This has been true in the past; in 2005 they improved to 9-3 from 6-6; in 2002 they went 10-3 from 5-6; and in 2000 they were 9-3 following a 5-6 season. But it doesn't always work that way; they had back-to-back poor seasons in 2003 and 2004 (5-7, 6-6) and losing seasons in '85 and '86. When the Irish come back strong, in the previous season they still have shown signs of life, which couldn't really be seen last year. In 2004 they beat Michigan and Tennessee; in 2001 they played Boston College, Tennessee, and 9-3 Stanford tight; and in '99 they lost to Michigan 26-22, not 38-0.

So while the Irish usually bounce back, this one is going to take another year. The schedule is not as hard, but isn't a pushover by any means. The main difference is the Irish won't be blown out like last year, nor shut out twice, and they will be competitive when they lose. And they'll probably beat Navy, too. I see them about 4-8, give or take the Purdue and Stanford games, and 5-7 or 6-6 with a couple of upsets, but I don't think they'll have a winning regular season, nor will they do worse than last season's tally. Yes of course, the Irish will be making a comeback; they always do. But it will come to fruition in 2009, not 2008.

69. Louisville Cardinals

2007 Results:    Record: 6-6    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #47   Success: #52    Combined: #50
A disappointing '07 and few key returnees points to an even worse '08 for the Cardinals.
Offense (3 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #19    Adj. Rush Yards: #73    Adj. Pass Yards: #5
Louisville's offense didn't fail them last year. They were still in the top 25 in scoring, adjusted for their schedule, and #5 in passing yards. But not a lot of that offense is back this year. Brian Brohm had another great year, completing 65% for 4,000+ yards and 30 TDs vs. 12 INTs. He left for the NFL, but Hunter Cantwell is an experienced and talented backup. But who will he throw to? Not Harry Douglas (1,159 yds, 7 TDs), Gary Barnidge (7 TDs), Mario Urrutia, or Patrick Carter, the top four targets from '07. Nor tight end Scott Kuhn, nor last year's leading rusher Anthony Allen (7 TD runs, 2 TD catch), 3rd leading rusher George Stripling (kicked off team), junior JuJuan Spillman (law trouble, dismissed), and maybe not Trent Guy (shot, will miss 1/2 the season). That leaves Scott Long (0 TDs) [update: Long broke a bone in his foot and may not return], running back Brock Bolen (7 TDs rushing, 1 TD catch), and Sergio Spencer (85 rec. yards) left of the team's top 12 pass catchers from last year. They will find replacements from JUCOs of course, but they won't be as good. Additionally, 3/5 of the O-line is gone, though the two that return (left tackle George Bussey and center Eric Wood) are both All-Big East players.
Defense (4 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #78    Adj. Rush Def: #69    Adj. Pass Def: #107
Here is the culprit to last year's breakthrough decline. The front four did a passable job at containing the run, though plagued with injuries. Roughly two starters worth of experience returns, led by tackle Earl Heyman. None of the three starters return at linebacker. Losses include Lamar Myles, who had well over twice as many tackles as anyone else on the team;gains include Miami transfer James Bryant. The secondary was the big problem last season. Two starters return from a unit that had only seven interception in '07. Strong safety Bobby Buchanan the only one of Louisville's top five tacklers back for 2008.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Kicker Art Carmody, perfect on 55 PATs last year, is gone, replaced by either sophomore transfer Tim Dougherty or true freshman Chris Philpott. Erratic punter Corey Goettsche is back but averaged under 40 yards per punt last season. As for the kick return squad, see notes in Offense re: Spillman and Guy.
Recruiting: Louisville's recruiting ranks around 50th in the nation. It didn't suffer much from the transition to a new coach, but doesn't seem likely to improve under Kragthorpe. Still, JUCOs tight end Rock Keys and receiver Maurice Clark could help immediately in the passing game, and on defense true freshman linebacker Dexter Heyman may join older brother Earl as a starter.

Louisville 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Kentucky	40%	L
9/6	Sat	vs.	Tennessee Tech	88%	W
9/17	Wed	vs.	Kansas State	46%	L
9/27	Sat	vs.	*Connecticut	37%	L
10/10	Fri	@	Memphis	56%	W
10/18	Sat	vs.	Middle Tennessee	62%	W
10/25	Sat	vs.	*South Florida	23%	L
11/1	Sat	@	*Syracuse	58%	W
11/8	Sat	@	*Pittsburgh	32%	L
11/14	Fri	vs.	*Cincinnati	38%	L
11/22	Sat	vs.	*West Virginia	27%	L
12/4	Thu	@	*Rutgers	33%	L
Favored: 4-8  Projected: 5-7

2008 Season Outlook The first sign that the Cardinals might not be an NCAA power last year came vs. Middle Tennessee, who scored 42 points on them. Louisville scored 58 and won. The very next week they lost to Kentucky, 40-34; still, there was a chance that UK was better than expected. The final straw, of course, was the loss to Syracuse, at home, as near-40-point favorites. After that, the team went through the motions, winning and losing mostly high-scoring games. They upset Cincinnati 28-24 to hand the Bearcats their first loss; they lost to Connecticut mainly due to a controversial punt fair catch ruling; they lost 55-17 to South Florida; and finally, beat Rutgets 41-38 to end the season 6-6, no bowl.

Eight home games is good treatment for a program in decline. Unfortunately for the Cardinals, it's not enough in '08. A 4-8 record looks pretty likely, though they should probably beat Kansas State at home, or get revenge on Kentucky in the opener. For some reason, though, winning both to match last season's record doesn't seem likely. The last four-game stretch is terrible, and will be worse since they'll be 4-4 or 5-3 after November 1st, with hopes for a bowl game about to be crushed.

70. Northwestern Wildcats

2007 Results:    Record: 6-6    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #82    Success: #76    Combined: #82
Improved on both sides of the ball, Northwestern looks to make a run at another bowl game.
Offense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #70   Adj. Rush Yards: #92    Adj. Pass Yards: #12
Somewhere along the way, Tyrell Sutton became just another running back, rather than the next big thing. After an amazing freshman year (1,474 yards, 16 TDs), Sutton's numbers declined in his 2nd year, and injuries last season reduced his output to 522 yards and 4 TDs. Now healthy for his senior year, he wants to recapture his earlier form and put Northwestern's rushing totals in the top 25, instead of the bottom 30. In the meantime, the Wildcats have become a pass-dependent team, starting four receivers (w/three returning starters) and featuring C.J. Bacher, who had 3,656 yards and 19 TDs to go with 19 INTs. Can they excel at both this year? The offensive line returns just two starters, and is the only weak link in Northwestern's plan for offensive domination.
Defense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #98    Adj. Rush Def: #67    Adj. Pass Def: #106
When Northwestern is bad, they don't score much and give up a lot of points. When they're good, they score a lot and, often, still give up a lot of points. But it never helps to have some margin for error. The Wildcat front four might provide that this year; all four starters (John Gill, Adam Hahn, Kevin Mimms, and Corey Wootton) return to shut down the run and pressure opposing quarterbacks, though Gill is suspended for the opener against Syracuse. Adam Kadela, leading tackler from last season, is gone from the linebacking corps, but Prince Kwateng and others with starting experience return. Finally, the area that needs the most improvement—the secondary—is a mixed bag. Two solid starters (tacklers #2 and #4) leave, but two (tacklers #3 and #5) return, along with former starter Brendan Smith. Overall, the front four will be so good they can cover for the deficiencies of the rest of the unit, and the yardage yield numbers should improve.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Punter Stefan Demos averaged just 40 yards a kick, but had a great 36.8 net last year. He returns along with kicker Amado Villareal, who has some accuracy issues but a good leg.
Recruiting: Northwestern faces some academic issues when it recruits, but still does a pretty good job considering its perception as the bottom dweller in the Big Ten. The last few classes have been around the average for the nation overall; when the Wildcats randomly have a critical mass of talent, they have a good team and go to a bowl game. Otherwise, a losing season—Sutton and Bacher are seniors but haven't gone to a bowl game since 2005. As for the recent classes new contributions toward this season, redshirt freshman Ben Burkett may start on the offensive line, and the defensive secondary may feature four redshirt freshman on the 2nd string.

Northwestern 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Syracuse	64%	W
9/6	Sat	@	Duke	48%	L
9/13	Sat	vs.	Southern Illinois	54%	W
9/20	Sat	vs.	Ohio	64%	W
9/27	Sat	@	*Iowa	41%	L
10/11	Sat	vs.	*Michigan State	43%	L
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Purdue	48%	L
10/25	Sat	@	*Indiana	44%	L
11/1	Sat	@	*Minnesota	50%	W
11/8	Sat	vs.	*Ohio State	14%	L
11/15	Sat	@	*Michigan	34%	L
11/22	Sat	vs.	*Illinois	43%	L
Favored: 4-8   Projected: 5-7

2008 Season Outlook Northwestern football seasons typically feature the Wildcats pulling a few upsets, and having a few wild, high-scoring games, and sometimes these happen at the same time, such as last year's win over Michigan State (48-41 OT). They also beat Minnesota 49-48 in overtime, and scored a small upset by beating Indiana. But the biggest upset they were involved in last season was a loss, at home, to Duke.

So even as we favor the Wildcats in only three games, the projection accounts for a few upsets and another would bring them back to 6-6. The season can be divided into three groups. The first four are the easiest, and Northwestern should win three or even go 4-0. Then the next five games are all potentially close, and the 'Cats could upset a couple teams here, particularly Minnesota, the ultimate tossup. The final three games are probable losses. Sutton and Bacher will need to have really good luck to reach seven and a bowl game, but there are enough close games on the schedule that it could happen—they just need to rack up as many wins as they can as early as possible.