2008 Pre-season 120: #5 Texas Tech Red Raiders, #6 Missouri Tigers

SportsRatings is ranking all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August until the season begins. These rankings are meant to reflect how good the teams might be in 2008 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for each team, and two projected records are given: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and another cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty in the predictions. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. (Schedule listings adapted from James Howell's site)

This installment covers teams #5 and #6. To see the full list, click here.

5. Texas Tech Red Raiders     (pre-season AP #12, USA/Coaches #14)

2007 Results:   Record: 9-4   Bowl: Beat Virginia 31-28 (Gator Bowl)  Poll finish: #22 AP #23 USA
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #17    Success: #25    Combined: #17
Can an all-passing offense take a team to the national championship? This crew might be the perfect test. The most pass-happy team in the pass-happy Big Twelve, the Red Raiders want to show that running the ball is overrated.
Offense (10 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #10   Adj. Rush Yards: #118  Adj. Pass Yards: #1
Texas Tech runs the spread option the old-fashioned way, without the 'option' part. The quarterback is a quarterback; he throws, he doesn't run downfield. It's not Florida or West Virginia 2007, but rather Houston circa 1990 or Hawaii 2006. And the QB puts up numbers just as gaudy. Except this year, they have one of the best quarterbacks that has run the system, some of the best receivers, and perhaps as a team, the best overall personnel that has attempted this type of run-and-shoot offense. Graham Harrell, as quarterback, is the focal point. His numbers in 2008 should be insane, since he's among the minority who can run this style of offense with an excellent completion rate (72% last year) and as few interceptions (14) compared to the number of touchdowns produced (48) and yardage (5,705) gained. Then there's Michael Crabtree. With that many yards thrown around some receivers have to be getting rich, but Crabtree is Bill Gates by any standard, hauling in 134 catches for 1,962 yards and a whopping 22 TDs. The only significant loss on the offense is #2 receiver Danny Amendola who had 109 catches, 1,245 yards, and 6 TDs, but the fact that he went undrafted suggests even he can be easily replaced; returning starters Eric Morris (9 TDs) and Edward Britton (4) will pick up the slack along with a slew of others. But Crabtree is the real deal; his ability to run after the catch is reflected in his TD total, and though one expects his stats to slip as he draws every team's best defender, he is an overwhelming favorite to repeat as the country's #1 receiver unless injured. The offensive line may be the best, too, to protect a QB under this scheme. All five starters return, anchored (literally) by 375 lb. right guard Brandon Carter, with Louis Vasquez at left guard, Marlon Wynn and Rylan Reed at tackle, and Shawn Byrnes at center. A number of solid backups like ex-starter Jake Johnson give the line depth, so QB protection should be even better this year. What else? Oh yeah, a bunch of guys are vying for the starting running back job, but who cares? Kobey Lewis, #3 rusher last year, was kicked off the team, but it doesn't matter.
Defense (8 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #43   Adj. Rush Def: #77    Adj. Pass Def: #2
The Tech defense is an interesting study. Their ability to defend the pass, and not the run, is reflected in the offense's capability to deliver one and not the other. I'm assuming that in drills the offense does its thing (pass) which gives the defense incredible experience in that aspect, and no challenge in the running department. But this year could be different, with the front four back intact. They're young, with two juniors and sophomore Colby Whitlock, but good, particularly Brandon Williams. And deep, like the offensive line, with three star JUCOs pushing the starters (though one of them, McKinner Dixon, was recently declared ineligible). Brian Duncan and Marlon Williams, the team's #2 tackler, return at linebacker. Last year Tech was 12th in passing yardage defense, which converts to #2 when corrected for the teams they faced. They lose #1 tackler Joe Garcia, but Jamar Wall (5 int.) and Darcel McBath (3) return. In all 9 of their 10 interceptions are accounted for by returning players, as the defense is exceptionally deep with returning reserves and have 16 of their top 20 tacklers back.
Kicking Game (1 RS): The Red Raiders return a good punter in Jonathan LaCour, 42.6 average. But they have to replace kicker Alex Trlica, who made all 67 PATs last year. Donny Corona, a true freshman, is battling senior Cory Fowler for the spot.
Recruiting: Tech's recruiting under Mike Leach is strictly average, pretty much in the middle of the pack nationwide. But Leach has the advantage, at least on the offensive side, of choosing players particularly for his system, and there are an abundance of receivers and quarterbacks who want to play this style. On defense he scored the three JUCOs mentioned for the line—Broderick Marshall, Brandon Sesay, and former Tech player McKinner Dixon, who didn't re-qualify.
2008 Season Outlook: Last year, from this vantage point, looks like a dress rehearsal considering this season's potential. Look at what worked, and look at what went wrong and try to correct it. Not much went wrong in the first seven games, as the Raiders faced mostly weak competition. They lost a shootout to Oklahoma State, which shows one weakness of the pass-a-minute philosophy: the defense gets tired out, and if they're facing a strong passing offense, too, it becomes a question of who can score last. They rebounded to beat Texas A&M solidly a few weeks later, 35-7 to go 6-1, and looked like a contender. But then they met Missouri and were dominated, 41-10, then wilted at home to Colorado. Another shootout loss to Texas (59-43) preceded their biggest win, a 34-27 victory over Oklahoma, where Sam Bradford was hurt early; Tech build a big lead and held on to win. In the Gator Bowl, it was Virginia with the lead most of the game, but the Raiders rallied to a 31-28 win.

Texas Tech 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Eastern Washington	89%	W
9/6	Sat	@	Nevada	80%	W
9/13	Sat	vs.	Southern Methodist	98%	W
9/20	Sat	vs.	Massachusetts	83%	W
10/4	Sat	@	*Kansas State	68%	W
10/11	Sat	vs.	*Nebraska	76%	W
10/18	Sat	@	*Texas A&M	68%	W
10/25	Sat	@	*Kansas	49%	L
11/1	Sat	vs.	*Texas	63%	W
11/8	Sat	vs.	*Oklahoma State	72%	W
11/22	Sat	@	*Oklahoma	46%	L
11/29	Sat	vs.	*Baylor	90%	W
Favored: 10-2  Projected: 9-3

2008 will be a good year for the Raiders. As they have for years, they'll beat up on the lowly teams, and there are plenty of them: two Division I-AA opponents, plus SMU. They're good enough to beat the mid-level Big Twelve opponents, and even Texas. But road trips to Kansas, and particularly, Oklahoma, will sink them. In the past, 'spread', 'wide open', 'no-huddle' or 'run-and-shoot' teams have preyed upon low-to-middle level opponents until a defensive coordinator on a team with decent talent tried to stack the line and overwhelm the QB. Miami in 1985 had become this type of team, relying heavily on passing, when Tennessee destroyed them in the Sugar Bowl with blitzes. Houston in 1989 was unstoppable, except the two games in which they were stopped. And this has been Texas Tech's experience over the last decade under Mike Leach. This year they have a chance to make their gameplan work like it never has, and for the most part they'll succeed, I believe having their best year yet. But teams that live and die by the pass alone eventually die by it. There will be a defense that can shut them down, hard, and even if they get past Oklahoma, and to the Big Twelve title game, and to the BCS championship game, they'll be beat. I don't think it will get that far because Oklahoma is one of the year's best teams, and Tech's other problem is stopping the run. When you can't run the ball, and can't stop the other team from running the ball, you have a fundamental problem, no matter how well your team passes. Tech, with their strong offensive line, will take this game plan as far as it can go, but they can't quite take it all the way.

6. Missouri Tigers      (pre-season AP #6, USA/Coaches #7)

2007 Results:  Record:12-2  Bowl: beat Arkansas 38-7 (Cotton Bowl)  Poll finish: #4 AP  #5 USA
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #3     Success: #2     Combined: #3
The Tigers are back, and better than last year. But so are a lot of the teams in the Big Twelve. Can they win the conference title this year with Chase Daniel?
Offense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #2    Adj. Rush Yards: #32    Adj. Pass Yards: #9
Chase Daniel will be one of the top Heisman hopefuls this year. Last season's stats—68% for 4,305 yards, 33 TDs vs. 11 INTs, plus 4 rushing TDs—put him 4th in the voting after barely generating a whisper before the season. His #1 target, Jeremy Maclin (1,055 yards, 9 TDs), has also been mentioned as a hopeful this year, as he returns kicks (3 for TDs) as well, a necessary requirement for a receiver who wants the prize. Macklin also had 4 rushing TDs as the Tigers' 2nd leading rusher last year; #1 Tony Temple (over 1,000 yards, 12 TDs) moved on, and Missouri has some good options to replace him, with Derrick Washington impressing the most in camp. They lose their #2 and #3 receivers, but return starter Tommy Saunders, and have dangerous Chase Coffman (7 TDs) who takes over at tight end for Martin Rucker. The final receiver slot is occupied by Danario Alexander, who is out for the first 3 or 4 games after ACL surgery. The offensive line, which protected Daniel well last year, loses two multi-year starters, Adam Spieker and Tyler Luellen. How their replacements do alongside the three solid returnees will determine how much leeway Daniel has in running the super-charged offense.
Defense (9 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #11      Adj. Rush Def: #17     Adj. Pass Def: #67
The defense looks very strong this year. The front four returns three starters, tackle Ziggy Hood (5 sacks) and ends Stryker Sulak (6 sacks) and Tommy Chavis (4.5). Though both ends are among the Big 12's best, there is a lack of depth on the line since Jason Townson and Jaysen Corbett left the team. But all three starters return at linebacker: #1 tackler Sean Weatherspoon, #3 Brock Christopher, and Van Alexander, who has had a "miraculous" recovery from April ACL surgery. Backup Andrew Gachkar also had surgery in April and is practicing already. The secondary gave up a lot of yards (96th in the nation by raw numbers) but played pass-heavy opponents, meaning they really ranked #67. And in terms of real pass defense that doesn't factor in interceptions and red zone defense, both of which Missouri excelled at, allowing them to achieve their near-top-10 scoring defense ranking. William Moore, who had 8 of Mizzou's 17 interceptions, returns after starting every game last year. Carl Gettis and Justin Garrett also started the majority of games, and several others have starting experience, making this a very deep secondary. Overall ten of the top eleven tacklers from last year are back, and if the defensive line stays healthy the team D should be much better this year than last.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Kicker Jeff Wolfert is probably the best kicker in the conference, hitting 21 of 25 field goals. Punter Adam Crossett wasn't the best in the league by any means (38.6 ave.) but he's gone and one of juniors Jake Harry or Tanner Mills will replace him.
Recruiting: Missouri is moving up in the recruiting game lately. The last two classes are in the top 40 nationally, particularly the 2008 class. Recruiting is essentially what gives Missouri the edge over Kansas this year; the team profiles are very similar on offense and defense for key players returning, but Missouri's newcomers this year should provide a bigger boost overall. They acquired JUCO defensive end Brian Coulter, who originally went to Florida State, which helps a lot after the departure of the two linemen in the summer. A half-dozen freshmen, mostly redshirts, are listed as 2nd string; in all approximately eight true freshman will avoid the redshirt this fall.
2008 Season Outlook: Only Oklahoma stood between Missouri and an undefeated season last year. Even after the first loss, only the Sooners came between the Tigers and the national championship game. Both times, Chase Daniel and Missouri came up short.

After a close game with Illinois (which became more understandable as the season rolled on), the Tigers beat three hapless foes before dominating Nebraska 41-6. Just when they were looking like a juggernaut, they lost to the Sooners in Norman, 41-31. Bouncing back, they crushed Texas Tech 41-10 and continued on as if nothing had happened, scoring 40 or more points in five straight wins. They met undefeated Kansas for a showdown in Kansas City, and came away the winner, coach Gary Pinkel's offense confusing the normally unflappable Jayhawk defense. Given another shot at Oklahoma, this time on neutral ground, they blew it again, 38-17, sunk by many mistakes at key moments. They were the odd man out of the BCS equation, with Oklahoma of course getting the automatic bid and Kansas getting the nod over them for the Orange Bowl. They fell to the Cotton Bowl, facing an outmatched Arkansas team and thrashing them 38-7, finishing with 12 wins.

Missouri 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	N	Illinois	65%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	SE Missouri State	100%	W
9/13	Sat	vs.	Nevada	85%	W
9/20	Sat	vs.	Buffalo	86%	W
10/4	Sat	@	*Nebraska	67%	W
10/11	Sat	vs.	*Oklahoma State	70%	W
10/18	Sat	@	*Texas	54%	W
10/25	Sat	vs.	*Colorado	71%	W
11/1	Sat	@	*Baylor	81%	W
11/8	Sat	vs.	*Kansas State	74%	W
11/15	Sat	@	*Iowa State	82%	W
11/29	Sat	N	*Kansas	51%	W
Favored: 12-0  Projected: 9-3

For 2008, Missouri essentially borrows Kansas' schedule from 2007. Ok, that's a slight exaggeration, but replace Illinois with Central Michigan and Texas with Texas A&M, and they are equivalent. The Tigers play only four real road games, and are involved in one of the biggest mismatches of the year when they host Southeast Missouri State.

Illinois will be weaker this year and more easily dispatched, then there are three easy games, followed by Nebraska and Oklahoma State. The trip to Austin will be one of Missouri's only two real challenges this season; after that, they have four games in a row they should easily win, with the tougher teams (Colorado and K-State) at home and the easy teams on the road. They meet Kansas again for what should be another pivotal game, though they might be able to win the division without a win there. Regardless, if they do make it to the Big Twelve championship they'll be playing in Kansas City again, probably against Oklahoma. That would be their toughest game of the year, and the winner would likely play for the national championship. Though the cumulative projection falls on 9-3, I don't see the Tigers doing any worse than 10-2, and 12-0 is just as likely. Missouri will have to prove it can beat a great Sooner team when it counts, but they have an opportunity to go all the way this year.