SportsRatings is ranking all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August until the season begins. These rankings are meant to reflect how good the teams might be in 2008 without taking schedule into account.
Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for each team, and two projected records are given: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and another cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty in the predictions. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. (Schedule listings adapted from James Howell's site)
This installment covers teams from #17 to #19. To see the full list, click here.
17. Penn State Nittany Lions (pre-season AP #22; USA/Coaches #22) |
2007 Results: Record: 9-4 Bowl: beat Texas A&M 24-17 (Alamo Bowl) Poll finish: #26 AP #27 USA
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #20 Success: #35 Combined: #24
At the end of last season, Penn State looked like a potential top ten team for '08. Then the loss of Sean Lee to an ACL tear and several off-field incidents have moved them down the tightly-contested 2nd ten. Still, they're the #2 team in the Big Ten.
Offense (8 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #31 Adj. Rush Yards: #19 Adj. Pass Yards: #70
The good news: the offensive line will be dominant. Five starters are back, including All-American candidate A.Q. Shipley at center, though they might not all be on the field at the same time as super soph Stefen Wisniewski will take over at right guard. Two starting receivers are back, Deon Butler and Derrick Williams, as well as #3 Jordan Norwood, as the Lions go back to the spread (in one of the off-season debacles, backup Chris Bell was kicked off the team for threatening a teammate with a knife). The questions, then, are at quarterback and running back. Anthony Morelli was not well-liked, especially following Michael Robinson, but he had competent stats, 2,651 yards and 19 TDs against 10 interceptions; new QB Daryll Clark can run and should do well in the option style, but he's unproven. Rodney Kinslaw rushed for 1,329 yards and 10 TDs; backup Evan Royster is a good replacement, having rushed for over 500 yards (5 TDs) with a 6.3 average last season. Tight end Andrew Quarless is back on the team, though not starting yet. Quarless had a DUI and was suspended during the
spring; let back on the team, he was awaiting grades and recently was
cited for underage drinking. It appears that his summer grades were okay.
Defense (8 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #17 Adj. Rush Def: #8 Adj. Pass Def: #86
The defense is where the majority of the back luck hit the Lions in the off-season. First Sean Lee's ACL tear means the Lions lose two all-star linebackers, Lee and Dan Conner, the team's top tacklers who combined for 25 tackles-for-loss (10 sacks) and 14 broken-up passes. The defensive line is even a worse case: set to return even more complete the offensive line, instead Phillip Taylor and Chris Baker, who make up one defensive tackle spot, were kicked off the team for involvement in on-campus fights; backup Knowledge Timmons and linebacker Navorro Bowman were suspended but allowed to return. The unluckiest Lion has to be backup DE Devon Still: after sitting out '07 due to an ACL tear, he broke his leg in the summer, and he was also the one threatened by receiver Bell's knife. All of this still leaves the defensive front stacked, with all-Big 10 Maurice Evans (12.5 sacks) the anchor at end, Josh Gaines the other end, and Jared Odrick and Ollie Ogbu back at tackle. The secondary was the weakest area last year, but lots of experience returns and has avoided major off-season trouble. Seniors Anthony Scirrotto, Lydell Sargeant, and Tony Davis return, while part-time starters A.J. Wallace and Mark Rubin fill in the gaps and add depth. This Penn State defense, already strong last season, could have been staggering if not for the injuries and off-field issue, but should still be solid despite them.
Kicking Game (2 RS): The kicking game is in great shape heading into the fall, with punter Jeremy Boon back (43 ave, 39.4 net) along with kicker Kevin Kelley (20-26 FG). Kelley was only 2 of 8 outside the 40, but it's not for lack of leg strength, as he hit a 53-yarder and had touchbacks on over 1/4 of his kickoffs.
Recruiting: Is JoePa's continued stay affecting recruiting? Normally Penn State is in the top 25 in recruiting, but this year's class was outside the top 40. Most of that is attributed to the fact that the class is small, just 14 players, and the Lions go for quality rather than quantity. They got some talented guys named Mike at linebacker: Mauti, Yancich, and Zordich. From last year's class, Josh Marks was expected to step into a backup role immediately on the offensive line, but he left the team. Instead tight end Andrew Szczerba might be the big new name from the '07 class, especially if Quarless has any more issues come up. Paterno rarely plays true freshmen, and this year is no exception, with just running back Brandon Beachum and linebacker Mauti on the depth chart.
2008 Season Outlook: PSU had an unsatisfying 2007, where they won a lot of games but lost the big ones. Florida International, Notre Dame, and Buffalo provided little resistance, as well as little preparation for Michigan and Illinois, both of whom beat the Lions. Penn State's best game of the year was their 38-7 whitewashing of Wisconsin, but they lost to Ohio State 37-17 at home. They were 8-3 going into Lansing, but were upset by the Spartans, 35-31 in a game they led 24-7. The Lions beat Texas A&M to finish with nine wins, but lost only one game by more than a touchdown and felt they should have done better.
Penn State 2008 schedule & forecast |
||||||||
8/30 | Sat | vs. | Coastal Carolina | 96% | W | |||
9/6 | Sat | vs. | Oregon State | 63% | W | |||
9/13 | Sat | @ | Syracuse | 75% | W | |||
9/20 | Sat | vs. | Temple | 76% | W | |||
9/27 | Sat | vs. | *Illinois | 61% | W | |||
10/4 | Sat | @ | *Purdue | 59% | W | |||
10/11 | Sat | @ | *Wisconsin | 51% | W | |||
10/18 | Sat | vs. | *Michigan | 59% | W | |||
10/25 | Sat | @ | *Ohio State | 25% | L | |||
11/8 | Sat | @ | *Iowa | 59% | W | |||
11/15 | Sat | vs. | *Indiana | 69% | W | |||
11/22 | Sat | vs. | *Michigan State | 61% | W | |||
Favored: 11-1 Projected: 8-4 |
|
This season looks good for the Lions. With most of the Big Ten in a middling condition, this is a great year to be one of the conference's toughest. The road game at Wisconsin is the only major barrier to finishing 11-1 (12-0 is out due to playing the Buckeyes on the road). The 8-4 projection is conservative and represents worst case, and 9-3 or 10-2 seem likeliest allowing for a few slip-ups. If the team had stayed injury- and trouble-free, they could have made a run at it this season. Even so, if Ohio State makes it to the BCS game again, it should be Penn State in the Rose Bowl, as they are well ahead of the next-best teams in the conference.
18. Arizona State Sun Devils (pre-season AP #15, USA-coaches #15) |
2007 Results: Record: 10-3 Bowl: lost to Texas 52-34 (Holiday Bowl) Poll finish: #14 AP #14 USA
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #16 Success: #13 Combined: #14
ASU has some weaknesses, but overall they'll be a tough opponent again.
Offense (6 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #25 Adj. Rush Yards: #50 Adj. Pass Yards: #33
Rudy Carpenter has been around for a while, as a backup/replacement for Sam Keller, as a starter, and in two different coaches and systems. Last season he emerged as not just a great talent but a consistent one, too, throwing for over 3,000 yards with 25 TDs and just 10 interceptions while leading the team to an 8-0 start and several big come-from-behind wins. This year he could be a Heisman candidate, though the field is crowded in '08. Top receivers Michael Jones (10 TDs) and Chris McGaha (830 yards) are back, plus Kyle Williams (6 TDs), but the big question is the the offensive line, which had to replace three starters from '07 and recently lost one of the new starters, 350-lb right tackle Richard Tuitu'u. The line allowed 55 sacks last season, 2nd most in the NCAA, and Carpenter suffered an injured thumb which hampered him in later games. RB Keegan Herring managed 815 yards and Dmitri Nance had 7 TDs, so the running game is not hopeless but again the line is an issue. Tight end could have been a trouble spot; starter Brent Miller is gone, and his replacement Dane Guthrie left the team along with backup Lance Evbuomwan, but the position is deep, and ASU might not use a tight end much this year, hoping that loading the field with receivers will allow Carpenter to get rid of the ball quicker and avoid the sack.
Defense (7 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #20 Adj. Rush Def: #7 Adj. Pass Def: #41
There are fewer questions on defense. Three starters led by Dexter Davis (10.5 sacks) and Luis Vasquez (4.5) return to the front four, which jammed the run last year holding six opponents to 100 or fewer yards (no team rushed for over 200 until Texas had 300 during the Holiday Bowl). They're solid at linebacker, too, despite the loss of #1 tackler Robert James. Travis Goethel and Morris Wooten return, with Mike Nixon and other experienced players back as well. Two standouts return in the secondary, Omar Bolden at corner and free safety Troy Nolan (6 INT), though they'll miss NFL draftee Justin Tryon's 16 pass break-ups. Strong safety Josh Barrett, too, was drafted, and backup Jeremy Payton, a potential replacement, left the team. But overall the defense, which was strong last season, looks even better this year.
Kicking Game ('2' RS): Thomas Weber is perhaps the best kicker in college football; he hit 24 of 25 field goals last season and won the Lou Groza award. As a punter he isn't as great, but still took over the spot last year and averaged around 40 yards a kick. He is one of the Sun Devils' most important returning players.
Recruiting: Dennis Erickson's 2008 class was a big improvement over the transitional 2007 class; the latter ranked around #40, while this year's crop is in the top 25. Better yet, two recruits that had committed to Arizona changed to ASU: top running back Ryan Bass and receiver Gerell Robinson. A third, WR Jarrell Barbour, did the same but didn't qualify and is heading to junior college.
2008 Season Outlook: ASU jumped to an 8-0 record last year, fueled by big comebacks. Against Colorado they fell behind 14-0 in the first quarter but came roaring back to win, 33-14. At home vs. Oregon State, once again they were down in the 1st quarter, this time 19-0; ASU finally took the lead at the end of the 3rd quarter and coasted to a 44-32 victory. After bashing Stanford 41-3, the Sun Devils had much more trouble with resilient Washington State and needed a last-minute Weber field goal to win 23-20. They didn't take the lead for good until the 2nd half against Washington but won 44-20. And Cal had them down 20-7 in the first half; again ASU rallied and won, 31-20. Suffering their first loss to Oregon, and with Carpenter slowed by injury, the team lost its magic. One more rally against UCLA (from 10-0 down) was all they had left; they were crushed by USC, 44-24, and barely stayed ahead of rival Arizona 20-17, before losing control of the bowl game against Texas, 52-34.
ASU 2008 schedule & forecast |
||||||||
8/30 | Sat | vs. | Northern Arizona | 87% | W | |||
9/6 | Sat | vs. | *Stanford | 68% | W | |||
9/13 | Sat | vs. | Nevada-Las Vegas | 77% | W | |||
9/20 | Sat | vs. | Georgia | 46% | L | |||
10/4 | Sat | @ | *California | 52% | W | |||
10/11 | Sat | @ | *Southern California | 44% | L | |||
10/18 | Sat | vs. | *Oregon | 45% | L | |||
10/25 | Sat | @ | *Oregon State | 56% | W | |||
11/8 | Sat | @ | *Washington | 57% | W | |||
11/15 | Sat | vs. | *Washington State | 68% | W | |||
11/28 | Fri | vs. | *UCLA | 64% | W | |||
12/6 | Sat | @ | *Arizona | 49% | L | |||
Favored: 8-4 Projected: 7-5 |
|
The schedule is a big tougher this year. The Sun Devils play seven home games, down from eight(!) last season. But one of those is Georgia, a daunting task. Though they could squeak past Cal on the road, USC is a different matter, as is Oregon at home. They could win out past that, but the Arizona game in Tuscon is the critical one. Win that and they could be 9-3, but more likely they finish 8-4 this year; lose to Cal (or some other upset) and 7-5 is on the table, too. The Sun Devils are still strong, but the offensive line is a big issue, as is overall depth. The success Dennis Erickson had last season should have momentum through recruiting and keep the program strong for years to come, however.
19. Connecticut Huskies |
2007 Results: Record: 9-4 Bowl: L to Wake Forest 24-10 (Meineke Bowl) Poll finish: #37 AP #33 USA
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #38 Success: #28 Combined: #35
The Huskies have an even better team than last year, but a tougher schedule. Perhaps that's why they aren't getting any national respect, despite returning 17 starters?
Offense (9 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #61 Adj. Rush Yards: #49 Adj. Pass Yards: #99
The offense returns almost complete, and loaded. QB Tyler Lorenzen ran the team well last year, throwing for 13 TDs against only 6 interceptions, while racking up a decent 2,367 yards. He was also the team's third leading rusher on an offense that never really wowed people, but did just enough to got the job done. Running backs Andre Dixon (828 yards) and Donald Brown (821) traded starts last year based on who was healthy, playing well, etc. at the moment, and both are back. The offensive line loses just one starter, with a wealth of new talent looking to push the returnees. The only blip is in the receiving corps, where the top five pass catchers were back until the #1, Terence Jeffers transferred. Still, that leaves Brad Kanuch, DJ Hernandez, tight end Steve Brouse, and Dixon, who along with some eager newcomers should more than pick up the slack.
Defense (8 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #18 Adj. Rush Def: #80 Adj. Pass Def: #33
Top ten in turnover margin, and nearly top ten in red zone defense; that's how a team ranked so low against the run and so bland against the pass can rank #18 in adjusted scoring defense. But they'd like the yardage numbers to be better, I'm sure, and with three starters back on the front four, that's a good possibility this season; ends Julius Williams and Cody Brown had 16 sacks between them. Three starters—Lawrence Wilson, Scott Lutrus, and Dahna Deleston—fill the linebacking corps, and all had over 100 tackles last year. They lose #1 tackler Danny Lansanah but move Deleston in from safety, which creates one of two holes in the secondary, the other being NFL draftee Tyvon Branch. The two returnees are corner Darius Butler and free safety Robert Vaughn, who had seven interceptions last season. The pass defense should still be good, and if it falters I assume they can move Deleston back into the secondary.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Desi Cullen, an adequate punter, returns, as does kicker Tony Ciaravino. The latter missed only 5 of 27 field goal attempts, with three of the misses from over 50 yards.
Recruiting: Connecticut has only been Division I-A since 2000, and Randy Edsall arrived a year before that. Now in a major conference, recruiting is still tough for the relatively young I-A program, and UConn finishes outside the top 60 most years, as is the case for the last two classes. And one of their biggest recruiting scores ever, 2007 linebacker Jerrell Miller, recently left the school after redshirting last season. But there are more positives than negatives among the young talent. Redshirt freshmen Kashif Moore and Isaiah Moore are competing—along with true frosh Brian Parker, Gerrard Sheppard, and Michael Smith—for playing time at wide receiver. And on the offensive line, true freshman Jimmy Bennett, or redshirts Mike Ryan, Gary Bardzak, and Moe Petrus (from Canada) could win the open guard spot, or even depose a returning starter.
2008 Season Outlook: What a turnaround UConn took in 2007. From 4-8, the team reversed its fortunes in a single year. The schedule played an important part; the Huskies raced to 5-0 by beating Duke, Maine, Temple, Akron, and Pitt. Their fifth non-conference game was against Virginia, and they lost it 17-16. A blown call on a punt fair catch helped them beat Louisville, and the Huskies scored big wins against South Florida and Rutgers, but fell to Cincinnati. By this time, the country had gotten sick of the Big East upstarts, and disrespected the league as a whole. It didn't help UConn's cause that West Virginia swamped them, 66-21, at the season's end. They lost to Wake in a boring bowl game, but despite the anticlimactic finish, the season was an amazing success.
UConn 2008 schedule & forecast |
||||||||
8/28 | Thu | vs. | Hofstra | 81% | W | |||
9/6 | Sat | @ | Temple | 69% | W | |||
9/13 | Sat | vs. | Virginia | 68% | W | |||
9/19 | Fri | vs. | Baylor | 77% | W | |||
9/27 | Sat | @ | *Louisville | 63% | W | |||
10/4 | Sat | @ | North Carolina | 52% | W | |||
10/18 | Sat | @ | *Rutgers | 49% | L | |||
10/25 | Sat | vs. | *Cincinnati | 55% | W | |||
11/1 | Sat | vs. | *West Virginia | 43% | L | |||
11/15 | Sat | @ | *Syracuse | 75% | W | |||
11/22 | Sat | @ | *South Florida | 33% | L | |||
12/6 | Sat | vs. | *Pittsburgh | 56% | W | |||
Favored: 9-3 Projected: 7-5 |
|
The schedule isn't as favorable this year. Temple is much improved, and North Carolina and Baylor replace Duke and Akron. Even Hofstra is a step up from Maine. But the Huskies are much improved, too, and can handle the upgraded schedule and repeat last year's 9-3 regular season. There's even a close loss to Rutgers that could be a 10th win. But some iffy wins, like at North Carolina and Cincinnati, could push them toward the projected 7-5. I'll compromise at 8-4, and with a bowl win they'll match last season's final tally.
Comments