2008 pre-season 120: #14 South Carolina, #15 USC, #16 Auburn

SportsRatings is ranking all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August until the season begins. These rankings are meant to reflect how good the teams might be in 2008 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for each team, and two projected records are given: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and another cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty in the predictions. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. (Schedule listings adapted from James Howell's site)

This installment covers teams from #14 to #16. To see the full list, click here.

14. South Carolina Gamecocks

2007 Results:      Record: 6-6     Bowl: n/a     Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #35    Success: #30    Combined: #30
Notice that Steve Spurrier has been quiet lately? Maybe he knows something that others are missing—how good his team is going to be this year—and he wants it to be a surprise. South Carolina indeed may be the surprise of the countdown to be ranked so high, but the Gamecocks are deep with talent. They just need to play to their potential.
Offense (6 RS)     '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #55    Adj. Rush Yards: #89    Adj. Pass Yards: #25
If South Carolina is really going to compete in the SEC, they need a stronger offense. Losing your starting quarterback and running back is not a good foundation. But last year's main QB Blake Mitchell was no superstar, with 10 TDs and 9 interceptions; backup Chris Smelley had 9 TDs (and 7 INTs) in almost 100 fewer attempts. But Steve Spurrier is passing over both him and highly-recruited redshirt freshman Stephen Garcia (suspended in the spring) for Tommy Beecher, who had a 1:1 TD:INT ratio. Literally, he had one of each. To help break him in, starting receiver Kenny McKinley (9 TDs) and co-starters Dion LeCorn, Freddie Brown, and tight end Jarod Cook return. To protect him, four starters are back on the deep offensive line. They'll be counted on to drive the running game, which was meager last year and loses Cory Boyd (9 TDs). His replacement, Mike Davis, ran for over 500 yards and 5 TDs and there are other good backs in the pipeline; in fact the offense as a whole is deep, with 20 2nd and 3rd stringers back.
Defense (10 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #19    Adj. Rush Def: #84    Adj. Pass Def: #15
The Gamecock D wasn't nearly as bad at stopping the run, or as good at stopping the pass, as their raw yardage rankings (110th, 4th) would suggest. But there's no doubt that stopping the run is going to be a priority this season, and that they'd like to repeat their passing defense stats. There's a good chance they can do both with the amount of starters that return and the depth of reserves. Six starters return in the front seven: Linebacker Cliff Matthews moved up to the front four, swapping places with Eric Norwood; Marque Hall and Ladi Ajiboye return up front with two other starters from '06; Rodney Paulk returns at linebacker with Marvin Sapp, who will play behind '06 starter Jasper Brinkley. The secondary should be just as good, with leading tackler Emanuel Cook, corners Captain Munnerly and Carlos Thomas, and safety Darian Stewart all back, and some experienced backups. More reshuffling will be required when SC uses its 4-2-5 scheme, but they have talent enough for any configuration.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Ryan Succop performed double duty as kicker and punter last year, making 13 of 17 goals and averaging a quite respectable 41.6 yards per punt. Since he does kickoffs as well, he may yield punting duties this year to soph Spencer Lanning or true frosh Ryan Doerr.
Recruiting: South Carolina's been getting good recruits for a long time now, despite not being one of the marquee teams in the SEC. The big reason is that they've had the biggest names in coaching for the last decade, first with Lou Holtz and now Steve Spurrier. This year's class isn't as amazing as the top 10 '07 class, but it's still in the top 25 as usual. Running back Eric Baker is the one everyone's looking at, and waiting for the day when he and prize '07 recruit Garcia will be the focal point of the offense. If Davis and Beecher don't deliver, that might be sooner than expected.
2008 Season Outlook: Of all the teams that had disappointing 2nd halves of their season, South Carolina's fall was perhaps the worst. The Gamecocks raced to 6-1 and national prominence, losing only to LSU and beating Georgia and Kentucky along the way. Then came a stunning loss to Vanderbilt, and as the schedule remained tough they couldn't catch a break, losing tight games to Tennessee and Clemson and getting bombed by Arkansas (321 yards by McFadden and 166 by F. Jones) and plastered by Florida (Tebow 5 TDs rushing, 2 passing). Though bowl-eligible in just their seventh game, they didn't go anywhere post-season.

South Carolina 2008 schedule & forecast
8/28	Thu	vs.	North Carolina St.	80%	W
9/4	Thu	@	*Vanderbilt	64%	W
9/13	Sat	vs.	*Georgia	51%	W
9/20	Sat	vs.	Wofford	79%	W
9/27	Sat	vs.	UAB	91%	W
10/4	Sat	@	*Mississippi	62%	W
10/11	Sat	@	*Kentucky	54%	W
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Louisiana State	53%	W
11/1	Sat	vs.	*Tennessee	57%	W
11/8	Sat	vs.	*Arkansas	64%	W
11/15	Sat	@	*Florida	31%	L
11/29	Sat	@	Clemson	43%	L
Favored: 10-2  Projected: 7-5

What last year should have been, this year will probably be: a good season. Although the idea of playing Florida and Clemson on the road the last two games should keep enthusiasm in check, the Gamecocks could be 9-1 and highly ranked at the time. And with the Georgia game being played in Columbia, a really fantastic start is possible. But more realistically, that game can't be counted on, the LSU 'win' is questionable, and in the SEC a fifth loss can probably be found. With big questions at quarterback, the tough D can only be relied on to do so much. While South Carolina has little hope of an SEC title this year, they should at least have the 8-4 or 9-3 season that last year's team could have easily achieved.

15. Southern Cal Trojans     (pre-season AP #3, USA/Coaches #2)

2007 Results:    Record: 11-2    Bowl: beat Illinois 49-17 (Rose Bowl)    Poll finish: #3 AP  #2 USA
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #8     Success: #7     Combined: #6
There are a lot more questions on offense than most people are asking, and no reason why the problems of the last two seasons are going away. But the defense alone will beat most teams, and the Trojans are in position to make another national title run if they can beat Ohio State.
Offense (4 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #27   Adj. Rush Yards: #10    Adj. Pass Yards: #45
Mark Sanchez becomes the next chosen one on August 30th, or perhaps a week later given his recent knee incident. But Sanchez, who showed moments of brilliance along with some sophomore mistakes in his three starts last year, takes the reigns at quarterback and should do a fine job. Sanchez passed for 695 yards, 7 TDs and 5 INTs last year, and this season he should beat John David Booty's '07 numbers (63%, 2,361 yards, 23 TDs in 10 games). The spot is a nesting ground for Heisman candidates, and I think he'll be one by the 2009 season, but if he falters Arkansas transfer Mitch Mustain is a sound backup. They lose their top receiver, tight end Fred Davis (8 TDs) but return the next two, starters Patrick Turner (3 TDs) and Vidal Hazelton (4). The running game, too, loses its top gainer, Chauncey Washington (969 yards, 10 TDs), but again backups Stafon Johnson and Joe McKnight and several others are waiting their turn. The question is, can they do it behind a very inexperienced offensive line? Only one starter—guard Jeff Byers—is back, though many gained experience last year filling in for injured players. Nearly everyone expects them to be great by the end of the year, but the schedule is front-loaded: the first game is against Virginia, and the second one is Ohio State; how far will they have come by then? In short, any other team that lost its 2-year starting quarterback, top receiver and top running back, and four starters on the line, would be severely downgraded. USC is a special case in that they reload rather than rebuild, but they've managed to lose two games each of the last two years often to vastly inferior teams despite having the best talent, and this could be their most questionable offense in quite a while.
Defense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #3      Adj. Rush Def: #3     Adj. Pass Def: #9
There were really no problems on this side of the ball last year; every aspect of the defense performed well, last-minute TD passes by Stanford notwithstanding. Seniors Kyle Moore and Fili Moala return on the defensive line; the team had 45 sacks last year, and while the departing Lawrence Jackson and Sedrick Ellis combined for 19 of those, new starter Everson Griffin had 5.5 as a backup. The secondary loses Terrell Thomas (4 int.), but has Cary Harris, Kevin Ellison, and Taylor Mays, all of whom received some kind of post-season recognition, along with other experienced defenders. While the front line may be down a notch and it will be tough to repeat last year's sack totals and rushing yardage ranking, the secondary should be roughly as good as last year, and any deficiencies will be covered by the linebacking corps. All-American shoo-in Ray Maualuga (6 sacks) and candidate Brian Cushing return to the unit, with solid Kaluka Maiava on the weak side slot replacing first-round draft choice Keith Rivers. The USC defense is a shell game of future NFL players, and will again be one of the best in the country. It may make the difference in some of their tough early games.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Greg Woldneck isn't the greatest punter, averaging 37.9 yards, but he is mostly used to stick the opponent inside the 20, which he did 1/3 of the time. David Buehler made 16 of 19 fields and is also back.
Recruiting: The 2008 class was a devastating blow to USC—it ranked only #10 in the nation. Shocking, yes, for a team that had the #1 or #2 class for the last five years. The truth is that the Trojans are so stocked from the fat years this decade that they only recruited 19 players. Pete Carroll likes to play true freshmen, and has hinted that the offensive line will be bolstered by several '08 recruits, namely Khaled Holmes, Matt Kalil, Matt Meyer, and Tyron Smith. Another, Daniel Campbell, might have joined them but he didn't qualify this season.
2008 Season Outlook: 2007 was a lot like 2006. Water-cooler talk about the team wavered between "they're clearly the best in the country" to "what has happened to USC?" only to end on the former note with a big bowl win.

After the Trojans throttled Nebraska, 49-31, in a game that was neither as close as the final score, nor nearly as impressive at all in retrospect, there were articles extolling the '07 USC team as the best USC team ever. Just three games later, that talk looked as idiotic as it should have seemed to anyone who even watched the Leinart/Bush years, as Stanford pulled one of the biggest upsets in a season that was packed full of major ones. A weak win over Arizona with Sanchez at the helm further exposed some of the Trojans' deficiencies at the time, beyond Booty's hurt finger. Another 31+ point win over a sorry Notre Dame team followed, then a road loss to Oregon that was actually fairly impressive all things considered. They beat Oregon State and Cal but didn't dominate until thrashing Arizona State 44-24, and soon the "best team in the nation" talk came back. After dominating Illinois in the Rose Bowl, many though they were again the best team in 2007, though no one was saying "best team ever" anymore.

USC 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	@	Virginia	64%	W
9/13	Sat	vs.	Ohio State	34%	L
9/25	Thu	@	*Oregon State	59%	W
10/4	Sat	vs.	*Oregon	50%	W
10/11	Sat	vs.	*Arizona State	57%	W
10/18	Sat	@	*Washington State	64%	W
10/25	Sat	@	*Arizona	52%	W
11/1	Sat	vs.	*Washington	67%	W
11/8	Sat	vs.	*California	62%	W
11/15	Sat	@	*Stanford	64%	W
11/29	Sat	vs.	Notre Dame	73%	W
12/6	Sat	@	*UCLA	60%	W
Favored: 11-1  Projected: 7-5

With all the personnel losses on offense, I don't see how USC will be better than it has been the last two years. Each of the last two years the team has finished with two losses, and I expect that to happen again. Ignore the conservative cumulative projection, as there's little uncertaintly when it comes to USC winning in double digits. The big game—perhaps the biggest of the college football year from the pre-season vantage point—is the Ohio State game, and I expect the Trojans to lose at home. The Oregon contest is really anyone's game, or perhaps Arizona will be the surprise team that gets them.  With five bowl opponents to start the year, the schedule is heavy up front, and if the Trojans are 5-0 by mid-October, they will be a unanimous #1 and even I will be drinking the Kool-Aid. But if they start 2-2, listen for the familiar echos of "what's wrong with USC?" to be replaced once again by calls for them to be in the BCS championship game by the end of the year.

16. Auburn Tigers     (pre-season AP #10, USA/Coaches #11)

2007 Results:   Record: 9-4   Bowl: beat Clemson 23-20 OT (Chik-Fil-A)  Poll finish: #15 AP #14 USA
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #18    Success: #20    Combined: #19
Auburn has a new look on offense. With home games against LSU and Georgia, can they reach the SEC title game in '08?
Offense (8 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #67   Adj. Rush Yards: #35  Adj. Pass Yards: #95
Never let it be said that Tommy Tuberville is resistant to change. The Auburn head coach realized last season that the offense was stagnating, particularly the passing game, and the team was reliant on the defense to win games. He decided that a switch a spread offense was needed. But he didn't want to wait until the start of a new season, so he hired away Troy's offensive coordinator to implement the system in December, and used it in the Tigers' bowl game against Clemson! While the debut was mixed, the offense did enough to get a win, and the early implementation of the system will pay dividends this season. Soph Kodi Burns and/or JUCO transfer Chris Todd will replace last year's starting QB Brandon Cox. Burns is mobile as required, and Todd ran the same system in high school (and as a backup at Texas Tech). The new quarterback will be well-protected this year behind a young but experienced line; all five starters return—seniors Jason Bosley and Tyronne Green and three true sophomores. Additionally the two top receivers, Rodgeriqus Smith and Montez Billings, are back. Tailback Ben Tate (903 yards, 8 TDs) is ready to take advantage of the hardy O-line along with Brad Lester (530 yards). In short, the offense will be, as Tuberville has said, "fun to watch."
Defense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #2   Adj. Rush Def: #20    Adj. Pass Def: #3
Auburn has had staunch defenses for many years and '07 was no exception. The Tigers finished with the #2 scoring defense (adjusted for opposition) and were #3 against the pass. There are important losses in the front four, full-time starters Pat Sims and Josh Thompson (#1 tackler) as well as NFL draftee Quenton Groves; and in the secondary, Patrick Lee and Eric Brock are gone, plus projected starter Aairon Savage had knee surgery recently and is out. But the full stable of linebackers returns, led by Tray Blackmon, with Chris Evans having gained experience starting in place of Merrill Johnson when the latter was injured last season. Though neither the rushing nor passing rankings will likely match last year's, with Sen'Derrick Marks and Antonio Coleman back on the line and Zac Etheridge and Jerraud Powers in the secondary, this is still a very good defense.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Auburn has one of the best kicking games in the country, and this will be true for several years as all the key players were freshmen last year. Kicker Wes Byrum became famous for beating Florida with a clutch last-second field goal, and made 17 of 23 overall. Special teams is loaded with good punters. Last year Ryan Shoemaker and Patrick Tatum together averaged 42.7 yards per punt with a great 38.5 net, and newcomer Clinton Durst is pushing Shoemaker for the starting job.
Recruiting: The '07 class was in the top ten, and the '08 class was still in the top 25 despite two of its biggest prizes—DeRon Furr and Onterrio McCalebb—withdrawing and not qualifying respectively. With nearly 30 signees, there are many others who may help right away. Among them: Eric Smith, a running back who has impressed many this spring, and the aforementioned Todd, who was at Texas Tech and junior college for a year each before arriving in Auburn. DE Raven Grey, a JUCO who could have eased the loss of two NFL players from the line, has been injured and is redshirting this season. Tuberville noted that the change to the spread offense has helped recruiting, since young players like the style and Auburn is off to a very fast start for '09.
2008 Season Outlook: At the start of last season, sluggish win over Kansas State made fans wary. Then a stunning home loss to South Florida, followed by another to Mississippi State, sealed the deal: 2007 was going to be Auburn's worst season of the decade. 

But a great win at Florida, plus a strong defensive performance in beating Arkansas on the road, and the Tigers were back at 5-2. Though a late pass sunk the team against LSU, and later Georgia dominated them, they beat Alabama and finished 8-4, and everyone knew things could have been a lot worse. Edging Clemson in the tradition-laden Chik-Fil-A bowl was just icing.

Auburn 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Louisiana-Monroe	81%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	Southern Mississippi	76%	W
9/13	Sat	@	*Mississippi State	57%	W
9/20	Sat	vs.	*Louisiana State	53%	W
9/27	Sat	vs.	*Tennessee	57%	W
10/4	Sat	@	*Vanderbilt	64%	W
10/11	Sat	vs.	*Arkansas	64%	W
10/23	Thu	@	West Virginia	39%	L
11/1	Sat	@	*Mississippi	62%	W
11/8	Sat	vs.	Tennessee-Martin	98%	W
11/15	Sat	vs.	*Georgia	49%	L
11/29	Sat	@	*Alabama	51%	W
Favored: 10-2  Projected: 7-5

2008 might run counter to 2007. After home wins over LSU and Tennessee, the Tigers could be 7-0 going into West Virginia. They probably won't emerge victorious, and with final games against Georgia and at Alabama, the season could end on a down note. Give back LSU and Tennessee or any of the other SEC teams looking to pull an upset, and they could sink to 7-5 pretty easily. But on the upside, win those two final games and they're in the SEC title game. While not playing Florida was a schedule boon this year, playing a road game vs. West Virginia is hardly a good thing. Auburn looks headed for an 8-4 or 9-3 season, but if the ball bounces their way a couple times they're looking at a possible BCS bowl.