SportsRatings is ranking all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August until the season begins. These rankings are meant to reflect how good the teams might be in 2008 without taking schedule into account.
Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for each team, and two projected records are given: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and another cumulative projection that allows for the uncertainty in the predictions. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values.
This is the first installment, and covers teams from #116 to #120. To see the full list, click here.
| 116. UAB Blazers |
2007 Results Record: 2-10 Bowl: n/a Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #115 Success: #112 Combined: #115
Though Alabama-Birmingham should have an improved defense, they probably won't be significantly better overall, at least not enough to overcome another tough non-conference schedule.
Offense (6.5 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #109 Adj. Rush Yards: #104 Adj. Pass Yards: #68
Joe Webb returns as last year's #2 QB, and the good news is the three top receivers are back—except that Webb was one of them. He was also the team's 2nd leading rusher. The returning starters number is byzantine, as many starters shifted position, but in general most of the best skill players are back somewhere in the mix, while 3/5 of the O-line returns. A lot of shuffling on offense in coach Neil Calloway's 2nd year, but it will be worth it if they can improve on the 15 TD/15 INT numbers racked up by Webb and last year's starter Sam Hunt, and gain more yards on the ground as well. Alabama transfer Aaron Johns will help with the latter if he qualifies academically.
Defense (9 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #110 Adj. Rush Def: #120 Adj. Pass Def: #77
The Blazers were dead last in rushing yards given up. Or first, rather—the point is they were the worst in the nation in stopping the run. Help is on the way with all of the front four returning, which should at the least prevent them from finishing last again. Only one linebacker is lost and 3/4 of the secondary returns, so the respectable pass defense should be better too. Overall a much improved unit, which is expected since last year was nearly bottom 10 in points given up.
Kicking Game ('2' RS): Swayze Waters handles both chores for the Blazers, as well as kickoffs. He's a better-than-average punter and hit 3 FGs from 50+ yards, but also missed 3 inside the 40.
Recruiting: UAB is no recruiting powerhouse, clearly taking what's left over after Alabama and Auburn (and others) take their share, and finished around #100 the last few years. This season they garnered 11 JUCO transfers to help immediately, so some of the holes mentioned above might be filled with newcomers.
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2008 Season Outlook 2007 wasn't looking too bad at the halfway point. UAB was been blown out at Michigan State but put a scare into FSU, losing 34-24 in Tallahassee. Wins over Alcorn State and Tulane put them at 2-4. Then the offense collapsed, scoring 10 or fewer points four times while the defense gave up 40+ four times, resulting in a six-game skid.
Once again the Blazers face a couple of strong BCS teams in the pre-season. Though they'll get past Alabama State, they have little chance against Tennessee or South Carolina, and even Florida Atlantic looks like formidable task. In CUSA play, Tulsa, Houston, Southern Miss, East Carolina, and UCF will be tough, leaving perhaps three more winnable games for the possibility to improve to 4-8. It could be another long year if things get off on the wrong foot, but either way the season should be one step in the right direction to build the program.
| 117. New Mexico State Aggies |
2007 Results Record: 4-9 Bowl: n/a Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #117 Success: #108 Combined: #117
Last season New Mexico State actually overachieved a bit with four wins. With one less game and only one Division I-AA squad on the schedule, they may find it hard to match last year's record.
Offense (7 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #100 Adj. Rush Yards: #117 Adj. Pass Yards: #4
Chase Holbrook completed an amazing 70% of his passes for nearly 4,000 yards and had 26 TDs (w/18 INTs). Backup J.J. McDermott added another 430 yards in limited play, showing how geared toward the pass this offense is. Thus it's important that two of the three top receivers return, including Chris Williams who had 11 TD catches in '07. Less important is losing two of their three top rushers to transfer. The O-line has some holes but should be ok. Overall, the offense looks good, but should again be without balance and may still have trouble scoring despite all the passing yards and speed at the receiver position.
Defense (7 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #117 Adj. Rush Def: #101 Adj. Pass Def: #90
The Aggies couldn't stop anyone from scoring last season, giving up at least 14 each time out and 30+ nine times. They lose top tackler Dante Floyd at linebacker, and two of the front three, which may make their laggard rushing defense even worse. Most of the secondary returns so pass defense theoretically improves as the team shifts to a 3-3-5 formation under new defensive coordinator Joe Lee Dunn. Several junior college transfers are also slated to help pick up the slack on D this season.
Kicking Game (0 RS): Last year's kicker, walk on Paul Young, transferred after losing the starting job to sophomore Kyle Hughes, who was academically ineligible in '07. The punting position is up in the air, though Hughes may handle that too so that NMSU gets their money's worth, or freshman Jordan Davenport or sophomore Ryan Janstram may take over.
Recruiting: The 2008 class ranks in the bottom 10 in the nation, the '07 not much better. But Hal Mumme did bring in many JUCO transfers that can help out immediately, particularly at the linebacker position.
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2008 Season Outlook NMSU beat Division I-AA teams Southeast Louisiana and Arkansas-Pine Bluff last year, as well as UTEP and 1-11 Idaho. They lost close games to Louisiana Tech and Nevada but ended with a five-game skid on their 13-game schedule.
This year there will be no easy wins. Even the opener against Nicholls State, who last year beat Rice, is questionable. After that, finding wins is going to be hard. San Jose State, Louisiana Tech, and the road game against Idaho are possibilities.
On the bright side, only Nebraska, Boise State, and Fresno State look like certain losses. The rest will be tough games that the Aggies can win if they've improved their defense enough, as well as their offense's scoring ability. Things could go really bad, though, if they drop the opener; they would likely go 0-5 to start, then, which could lead to a downward spiral they can't afford.
| 118. Florida International Golden Panthers |
2007 Results Record: 1-11 Bowl: n/a Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #119 Success: #118 Combined: #119
The Panthers should be a lot better this year. But that means, a lot better than not very good at all. Despite a slew of returning players, coach Mario Cristobal has another rebuilding year—or rather, building year—on his hands.
Offense (9 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #118 Adj. Rush Yards: #95 Adj. Pass Yards: #116
QB Paul Younger returns, coming off an '07 season where he passed for just 9 TDs and suffered 17 interceptions. He was however the 2nd leading rusher as well, on a team that ran the ball a lot better than it passed. Backup Paul McCall had a much better 5-1 ratio and they may turn to him to improve the passing numbers, as he completed 56% to Youngers' 46% and led them to their only win; plus the latter is still recovering from a broken collarbone. Either way, both should contribute to the Panthers' spread offense, which boasts every pass catcher and RB returning. The offensive line is the only question and it returns three starters.
Defense (7 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #111 Adj. Rush Def: #87 Adj. Pass Def: #101
Even when the offense got going last year, which was rare, the Panthers gave up too many points for it to be of any use. Losses in the front four and secondary may hurt, but the linebackers are solid and overall the vast majority of 2nd and 3rd string experience returns. They won't be a great D but there's not much of anywhere to go but up.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Chris Cook got a lot of practice punting over the last two years and has improved. Conversely, kicker Chris Abed only had the chance to attempt 11 extra points last season and eight field goals. Both return along with Dustin Rivest who backs up both positions.
Recruiting: Cristobal had a "good" year recruiting for '08. That is, a rank in the mid-90s, which for a very new and developing program qualifies as a good year. The idea is that eventually a lot more of the local talent will consider FIU an option, of course. At the least, the team has advanced to the level that the Panthers aren't forced to play incoming freshman at key position.
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2008 Season Outlook '07 was looking a lot like '06 for most of the year. That is, winless and depressing. Not that the schedule helped anything, as FIU took on four BCS schools back-to-back to start the season, scoring 10 points or less each outing. But on their final game of the season, they came up with a cathartic 38-19 win over North Texas to avoid two winless years. Hope is that they still have some of this momentum left heading into '08.
Alas, the 2008 schedule is in some ways even harder. Only three BCS teams this time, but Kansas on the road is one of the biggest mismatches of the season, and USF at home isn't much better. They have last year's victim, North Texas, on the road as well. All in all, the Panthers aren't favored in a single game, which isn't too much of a stretch for a team that's 1-23 the last two seasons.
But there is potential. The team is better, and they should be competitive in fully half their contests. Particularly in conference, where all of these winnable games reside. Adding up the odds they could post four wins, but more realistically they'll improve to 2-10 from 1-11 last year and 0-12 the season before. At that rate, a national championship is only a decade off.
| 119. North Texas Mean Green |
2007 Results Record: 2-10 Bowl: n/a Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #120 Success: #117 Combined: #120
North Texas was by some measures the worst team in college football last year, getting smacked even by doormat Florida International. They did win two games over Division I-A schools, though (counting Western Kentucky as such), but only one other game was close and there were some monster blowouts. This season the team looks to be only slightly better.
Offense (7 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #91 Adj. Rush Yards: #107 Adj. Pass Yards: #17
For an offense that had Patrick Cobb and Jamario Thomas lead the nation in rushing back-to-back years, their transformation into a passing team under Todd Dodge is a big shift. Last year's QBs Giovanni Vizzi and Daniel Meager traded starts depending on who wasn't hurt, racking up over 3,000 yards, 21 TDs, and 28 INTs between them. They both return, along with favorite target Casey Fitzgerald, who had over 1,000 yards and 12 TDs, including a 99-yarder. With Thomas gone, the running game is further depleted and though the line returns many starters, it will serve the QBs mostly as they run quite a bit under this system. Coach's son Riley Dodge will push the starters for playing time at QB.
Defense (6 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #120 Adj. Rush Def: #94 Adj. Pass Def: #117
The D was most of last year's problem. They couldn't defend the pass, nor stop anyone from scoring—21 points was the season low. They may be stronger up front and in the secondary this season, but the linebacking corps is largely depleted, and overall they lose their top five tacklers from last season. With the pass defense improved, the scoring numbers should get better, but don't expect a dominant D by any means.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Kicker Thomas Moreland made only 8 of 15 last season (long of 37 yards), and should be replaced by JUCO transfer Jeremy Knott. Punter Truman Spencer also returns (41.6 ave).
Recruiting: The '08 class ranked far better than the '07 class, which was near the bottom ten. This bodes well for the future under Dodge, and maybe even this season if JUCO transfers and highly-touted frosh QB Riley Dodge contribute. Two of last year's redshirts hope to garner ample playing time at wide receiver as well.
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2008 Season Outlook Losing to Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Troy by a combined 190-24 took the stuffing out of last year's team as they started 1-9 before a one-point win over Western Kentucky. Then they became the only team to lose to FIU in two full seasons.
This season they get the FIU rematch at home, and they'd better make the most of it as that may be their only win of the season. The following week against Louisiana-Lafayette is a possibility, and the closer vs. Arkansas State, but other than that the rest of the schedule looks tough for them. Of course trips to Kansas State, Tulsa, and LSU might evoke last season's bad memories, but even the road conference games will be a challenge and although the projection adds up the probabilities to about 3.7 wins, I think it will be hard enough for this team to exceed last year's total.
| 120. Army Black Knights |
2007 Results Record: 3-9 Bowl: n/a Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #107 Success: #107 Combined: #107
Army wasn't a truly bad team last year—at least, not in the bottom 10 in the nation. This year, though, things don't look so good as they lose the majority of their best and most experienced players.
Offense (4 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #116 Adj. Rush Yards: #111 Adj. Pass Yards: #113
Offense was the main problem last year, and it will remain so in '08. Neither passing or rushing yielded a lot of success measure by yards or points. QB Carson Williams passed for just 1,770 yards and 11 TDs vs. 12 INTs. The ground game wasn't much better, no back gaining over 330 yards. This year, the three top receivers are gone, including Jeremy Trimble who caught over half Army's TD passes. The line returns only a couple of starters. So what do you do? If you're head coach Stan Brock, you switch to the wishbone, where lack of receivers won't matter as much. Either Williams will continue to lead the team and run it, otherwise freshman Paul McIntosh, Mr. Football Indiana, who ran for 1,600 yards to go with his 22 TD passes, will contribute immediately.
Defense (4 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #87 Adj. Rush Def: #113 Adj. Pass Def: #24
Overall the defense wasn't that bad. But their lack of ability to stop the run might be what made the passing defense look so good. Things may improve on that front with a couple starters back on the line and in the linebacking corps, including standout Frank Scappaticci. But they lose top tacklers Jordan Murray and Caleb Campbell from the secondary, which is largely depleted and may make teams want to throw the ball more. As on the offense, the problems run deeper than the starting set; Army actually loses more letterman than they retain, one of the few schools in that situation.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Adam DeMarco kicked extra points for the Knights last year, but now must take over field goals as well, replacing Owen Tolson who was a mediocre kicker but a great punter, averaging 45 yards a kick.
Recruiting: I don't know if they followed the "real" army's lead an used a video game for recruiting, but the '08 class was a significant improvement over the '07 class, which ranked near the bottom of the nation. More than likely, Brock was settled into his job and able to recruit properly; also, the higher ranking of the class is largely due to McIntosh.
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2008 Season Outlook Last season Army beat only Division I-AA Rhode Island—in overtime—while starting 1-3, though they didn't embarrass themselves vs. Wake Forest or Boston College. They won two more over Temple and Tulane and stood at the halfway point at 3-3.
Then things came unravelled, as QB injuries made consistency a thing of the past, and offensive production shut down and the defense gave way, a disastrous combination. They exceeded 10 points only twice and yielded 30+ in all six losses that closed the year.
The '08 schedule is hardly backbreaking; the team opted out of contests with Boston College, Georgia Tech and Tulsa. But most of the easier teams are on the road. Even Division I-AA New Hampshire doesn't look promising at home, as the Wildcats are a top 25 team in the FCS with several recent wins over FBS (I-A) schools. Other than Akron, Louisiana Tech, and Eastern Michigan, there aren't many opportunities here.
The good news is that there are a lot of games that Army can be competitive in. Although adding up the estimated odds yields a four-win season, I'd guess that Army is more likely to go 0-12 than 4-8. Unless the wishbone offense yields immediate and striking results, Brock—who recently announced he is recovering from prostate cancer surgery—may have to wait a few more years to guide the team to its first winning record in over a decade.
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