SportsRatings is ranking all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August until the season begins. These rankings are meant to reflect how good the teams might be in 2008 without taking schedule into account.
Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for each team, and two projected records are given: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and another cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty in the predictions. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. (Schedule listings adapted from James Howell's site)
This installment covers teams from #111 to #115. To see the full list, click here.
| 111. Rice Owls |
2007 Results Record: 3-9 Bowl: n/a Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #114 Success: #110 Combined: #114
Rice will be better than last year's team; how much better is up to QB Chase Clement and the myriad of experience returning to the Owls, who failed to impress last season.
Offense (9 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #65 Adj. Rush Yards: #113 Adj. Pass Yards: #19
Last year starting QB Chase Clement (3,377 yds 29 TDs) was the team's leading rusher as well, demonstrating not only his talent but also the team's poor rushing game. All his favorite targets return, including 1,000 yd receiver Jarrett Dillard (14 TDs). The line should be decent, with 3 of 5 starters returning. And with last season's best backs back, perhaps Rice's attack will be a bit more balanced? Either way, the offense should be even more productive, especially if Clement can cut down on last season's 18 interceptions.
Defense (7 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #119 Adj. Rush Def: #104 Adj. Pass Def: #116
Rice allowed a lot of ball movement last year, both on the ground and especially through the air. But the secondary might be the unit's strength this year, with Andrew Sendejo (107 tackles, 5 INT) and Brandon King back, and Bencil Smith recovering from a broken foot. Both starters return at linebacker but two of the front four are replaced in the line. Lots of returning lettermen on the defensive side, too, but there's a lot of work to be done.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Clark Fangmeier is great on extra points (98%, 1 miss) but mediocre (7-12) on FGs. The Owls need a new punter, who could either be a freshman or redshirt freshman.
Recruiting: Rice's last 2 classes have been just inside the top 100, so there's no reason the Owls should be quite this poor. But with the many returning starters and 2nd and 3rd stringers, few freshman members of either class will make a big difference this season, save perhaps a few on the offensive line.
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2008 Season Outlook Last year the Owls were embarrassed by Nicholls State and blown out by Baylor in the first two weeks, which set the tone for '07. They managed close wins against Southern Miss (2 points), UTEP (8 points), and SMU (1 pt.), but mainly lost close games where the offense couldn't keep up with what the defense was yielding. A few touchdowns here and there separated a potential 8-4 season from a possible 0-12 year.
The bad news is, this season might be more of the same. Though home games against SMU, North Texas, and Army are winnable, early road contest at Vandy, Texas, and Tulsa are tough...and then there are about six tossups that Rice once again is more likely to take the wrong side of. The good news is that the cumulative odds favor the Owls to steal a couple of these and finish with five wins—and with a little extra luck they could be on the cusp of a bowl berth. For that to happen, the offense just has to keep rolling along but the defense needs to improve quite a bit.
| 112. Northern Illinois Huskies |
2007 Results Record: 2-10 Bowl: n/a Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #116 Success: #115 Combined: #116
The Huskies return a lot of players...most of whom weren't very good last year. Can new coach Jerry Kill take this seasoned talent to a new level?
Offense (8 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #120 Adj. Rush Yards: #105 Adj. Pass Yards: #94
The Husky offense in 2007 was last in the nation in scoring, factoring in their competition. Despite 1,000 yard rusher Justin Anderson (8 TDs), they had trouble getting the ball in the end zone, exceeding 30 only twice in '07 and scoring a total of 6 points against the two BCS teams (Iowa and Wisconsin) on their schedule. QB play was erratic, with Dan Nicholson (who played injured most of the year) and Ryan Morris combining for 13 TDs and 19 INTs. All the top receivers are back along with Anderson so if the QB play improves there might be some spark in the offense. Much of the O-Line returns intact as well. Now the key is to stay healthy, though almost all of the 2- and 3-deep return, too.
Defense (10 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #96 Adj. Rush Def: #111 Adj. Pass Def: #89
The defense couldn't make up for the offense's deficiencies last season, which is the kind of thing that leads to a 2-10 record. But almost the whole unit returns this season, along with returnees from '06 that, taken together, you could argue the Huskies have more than 11 returning starters on D. DE Larry English (10.5 sacks) anchors the line and sophomore safety Alex Kube (111 tackles) the best of the secondary last year now at linebacker. Overall though last season's play from the very same crew left a lot to be desired.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Punter Andy Dittbenner returns with a fine 43.5 yd ave last year, though his net barely increased from '06; he's listed as backup kicker as well, while Mike Salerno (ex Winona State) is the new starter.
Recruiting: Look no farther than the recruiting rankings to see why the Huskies are in the dog house. Both of the last two years, the classes have rated in the bottom 10. That said, two members of the '07 class may push Nicholson for the starting QB job.
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2008 Season Outlook Half of N. Illinois' losses last year were by 5 points or fewer. But there were also back-to-back 44-3 and 70-21 blasts by Wisconsin and Toledo. The two wins were by 7 points each over lowly Idaho and Kent State.
Much of the Huskies' woe was blamed on injury, and it seems to be happening again, with dozens of players missing spring practice, and key players like Nicholson and English recovering over the summer. Luckily the team is very deep with experience, so it's hard to imagine the record being worse in '08 regardless of bad luck.
Or could it? The MAC is full of teams with returning experience, moreso than probably any conference in the country. The Huskies' only gimme is against Div I-AA Indiana State (0-11 last season). Three home games in the middle of the year are possible wins, as are the three contests that close out the season, but I have the Huskies favored in none of them. Is a 1-11 season on the way?
I very much doubt it. I think Northern Illinois will finish closer to the 5-7 odds-based projection than last year's two wins. Despite the nagging injuries, there are too many experienced players coming back. Some of the close games are bound to go the Huskies' way, and if all of them do, they'll make it to a bowl game. How well the offensive squad can run Kill's system—and how much the dismal D can improve—will determine the result.
| 113. Idaho Vandals |
2007 Results Record: 1-11 Bowl: n/a Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #118 Success: #120 Combined: #118
Idaho's offense looks to be much improved, but a defense that was already porous last season might undermine the offense's progress.
Offense (10 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #107 Adj. Rush Yards: #72 Adj. Pass Yards: #77
The Vandals' yardage stats weren't bad—they just couldn't put points on the board to match their yardage output. RB Deonte Jackson ran for 1275 yards but scored just 7 TDs, and QB Nathan Enderle threw 10 TD passes vs. 18 interceptions at only 44%. The reloaded offense returns several top receivers as well, and the offensive line is nearly intact, though left guard Mike Iupati will miss the first month. Even the backups return, with only one letterman missing from the 2- and 3-deep. If they can limit the turnovers and just put points on the board to equal their yardage, this offense will excel.
Defense (4 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #116 Adj. Rush Def: #81 Adj. Pass Def: #55
Like the offense, the yardage stats were much better on D than the scoring stats. Despite having a respectable pass defense yardagewise, teams were able to score on the Vandals at will. This is another result of turnovers: when the field is short for your opponent, yards don't matter much. Shiloh Keo returns at strong safety (and punt returner) for the Vandals, as does cornerback Breyon Williams. The line also returns two starters, but all the linebackers are young and less experienced. Again like the offense, the vast majority of backups return to fill the starting roles, but there's a lot to fill on a unit that already has its problems. The unit is planning to switch back to a 4-3 formation this season.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Special teams are a strong point this year, with Keo averaging 16.8 yards per punt return, T.J. Conley a mostly consistent punter, and kicker Tino Amancio basically a given inside the 40.
Recruiting: Idaho's recruiting is not that bad. They've been inside the top 100 (or at least close) the last 2 years, which should be good enough to avoid 1-11 seasons. This season, so much talent returns that freshman from both classes will largely wait their turn, though there are some holes on defense that might be filled with frosh blood, so to speak.
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2008 Season Outlook '07 was a season to forget. After a surprisingly close (38-10) contest with USC, Idaho got its a win over Cal-Poly that would turn out to be their last. Most of the rest in the 10-game skid weren't even close, though there were only two real blowouts (Boise State and Hawaii, naturally).
The team's psychology might have a lot to do with how much they can improve. Losing 10 straight games to end a season can do a lot of damage. After the opener at Arizona, though, they get a chance to post a home win over intrastate rival Idaho State, and there's no better medicine than that. They just better make sure they win that one, or the downward spiral will continue, and they could miss an opportunity to win any of the next four which could all be tossups. I have them favored at home vs. San Jose State and New Mexico State before probable losses to Boise and at Hawaii.
All in all, they should do no worse than three wins, which is quite an improvement considering they really don't rate much better overall than last season. But with the defense looking so questionable, I'd say the projection of five wins is likely a ceiling.
| 114. SMU Mustangs |
2007 Results Record: 1-11 Bowl: n/a Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #112 Success: #119 Combined: #112
The big story at Southern Methodist is of course new head coach June Jones, who fans are hoping will replicate his Hawaii success at this once-great but long-suffering program. Though Jones may pull it off, it's probably going to take a bit longer than the single year it took in Honolulu.
Offense (6 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #85 Adj. Rush Yards: #60 Adj. Pass Yards: #46
Barring any major changes by Jones*, the offense revolves around QB Justin Willis, who passed for almost 3,000 yards and 25 TDs and was the team's leading rusher to boot. Willis was suspended for much of the year but is now in Jones' good graces apparently. Many of his receivers are gone but Emmanuel Sanders returns as well as the two top backs from '07. The line needs some work if they're going to give Willis the protection he needs to cut down on his 18 INT total. Add in a complete change in system and you have a recipe for a pretty big question mark. *note: A major change was announced by Jones recently: Justin Willis is now the 3rd-string quarterback; true freshmen Braden Smith and Bo Levi Mitchell are the two candidates, with Mitchell slightly in the lead.
Defense (6 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #115 Adj. Rush Def: #106 Adj. Pass Def: #105
The D was equally bad at defending the run and the pass last season, which added up to one of the worst scoring defenses in the nation. It's a mishmash as to how to count returning starters on this side of SMU's line, with many part-time starters back or missing. Brian McCann is the standout in the secondary and Will Bonilla the defensive MVP at linebacker.
Kicking Game ('2' RS): Thomas Morestead is a double threat for the Mustangs at punter and kicker. He's better at the former than the latter, with a nearly 45 yard average and 40 yard net. He missed several short field goals in '07, but he was perfect on extra points, and was 3 of 4 on 50 yarders though just 13 of 20 overall.
Recruiting: Though dismal for a major program, SMU's recruiting for '08 and '07 ranked in the low 90s both years, so the team shouldn't have sunk quite this low. Redshirt freshman Kelvin Beachum is slated to start on the offensive line, and with Jones' new system there may be opportunity for the youth on the team—he's stated that over a dozen true freshmen will play this year. It will be interesting to see the future results of Jones settling in on the bountiful Texas recruiting trail. Update: two quarterbacks that Jones recruited for 2008 are the finalists for starter. Braden Smith and Bo Levi Mitchell, both from Texas, are still in the hunt.
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2008 Season Outlook The Mustangs lost big to Texas Tech, beat North Texas, then lost ten in a row, with three of the losses overtime games and another by a single point. If that doesn't get a team depressed I don't know what will. Hopefully for SMU's sake the hiring of Jones has wiped away much of that memory.
Learning a new system is hard work. SMU has a lot of key players back, but loses a lot of experience, too. That said, the experience isn't as crucial when the system is changing. Though Jones will turn the program around eventually, this team is essentially the same as last year, and will have the same number of close games, and will probably lose most of them. This does present an opportunity, of course; a change in attitude can yield positive results in tossup games, which SMU will see plenty of in conference. While attitude won't change the outcome of the Texas Tech game, this season will be a good bellwether for the program under Jones in general. Repeat last year's 1-11 and it says that it will take 3-4 years for the new system to sink in. Go better than 5-7 and the players are overachieving and Jones will deserve credit for another quick turnaround.
| 115. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns |
2007 Results Record: 3-9 Bowl: n/a Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #109 Success: #109 Combined: #109
Louisiana-Lafayette's success last season matched the quality of their team—both were pretty dismal, but not in the bottom 10. In 2008, they'll have to hope that they can "git above their raisin'" as the saying goes, because overall they might be worse. Still, a soft Sun Belt conference schedule allows for a wide range of outcomes record-wise.
Offense (8 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #93 Adj. Rush Yards: #9 Adj. Pass Yards: #117
The Cajuns put almost all their eggs into the running game basket. Two players exceeded 1,000 yards on the ground last season—running back Tyrell Fenroy and quarterback Michael Desormeaux. Both ran for 7 TDs, while Desormeaux added 10 TD passes but just 1,405 passing yards and also 10 interceptions. Not that it matters much, but most of the team's top receivers return. Four returning starters anchor the line though they do lose their best lineman, Jesse Newman.
Defense (6 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #108 Adj. Rush Def: #117 Adj. Pass Def: #66
You would think a run-oriented team might have a good rushing defense, but apparently that's not always the case. This year while the front four and the secondary may be questionable, Antwyne Zanders, Grant Fleming, and Brent Burkhalter—the team's three leading tacklers—all return at linebacker.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Kicker Drew Edmiston returns; he has a limited range but is good inside the 40. Punter Spencer Ortega is adequate.
Recruiting: The Cajuns' recruiting is pretty much bottom 10 territory, which is how they landed here. Unencouragingly, I see no members from either class in any starting projections, though there are several in the two-deep.
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2008 Season Outlook Beaten solidly but not blown out in their first five games (including a loss to I-AA power McNeese State), the Cajuns defeated North Texas, then lost three more including an overtime fall to FAU and a 59-7 drubbing at Tennessee. They finished strong, beating Middle Tennessee and Florida International before dropping a disappointing 17-11 contest to Louisiana-Monroe at home.
This year for the Cajuns, like most of the teams in the bottom ten, will be made or broken in the close games which may be plentiful. Only favored in two contests (North Texas and FIU), they will have four others (Kent State, Arkansas St., UTEP, and Middle Tennessee) that are very winnable. They'll probably have to do it with offense, staying a score ahead of the opposition, unless the defense can learn to stop the run. The game at Illinois will pit Desormeaux against Juice Williams, showcasing two quarterbacks who have achieved remarkably similar stats under very different circumstances.
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