SportsRatings is ranking all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August until the season begins. These rankings are meant to reflect how good the teams might be in 2008 without taking schedule into account.
Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for each team, and two projected records are given: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and another cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty in the predictions. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. (Schedule listings adapted from James Howell's site)
This installment covers teams from #106 to #110. To see the full list, click here.
| 106. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers |
2007 Results Record: 7-5 Bowl: n/a Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #96 Success: #91 Combined: #96
The Hilltoppers have been in limbo a couple of years. No longer an FCS (Div I-AA) team, not yet a FBS (Div I-A) school either. But this season they play ten I-A teams and only two I-AA teams, which to me makes them every bit a I-A team. But consequently, they won't likely see seven wins in 2008.
Offense (7 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #114 Adj. Rush Yards: #23 Adj. Pass Yards: #118
Western Kentucky is a ground team. Leading rusher Tyrell Hayden rushed for more yards (1,134) than either of WK's top quarterbacks, KJ Black and David Wolke, passed for. Black and Wolke even added nearly 700 net rushing yards into the mix, while throwing more interceptions than touchdowns. This explains why the running game ranks highly and the passing game doesn't. Luckily in addition to the QBs, the three top ground-gainers are back this season. Top receiver Curtis Hamilton is gone, but the next best three return as starters, so the passing game could improve as well. The line returns two starters plus redshirt Greg Ryan (who started two previous years). Whoever starts at QB—they'll probably use both a lot in any case—will have to limit the turnovers to realize this offense's potential for improvement.
Defense (6 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #68 Adj. Rush Def: #83 Adj. Pass Def: #45
The defense was respectable last season, especially against the pass. The Hilltoppers' 3-4 returns two starters on the line, two linebackers, and half of the secondary; most of the backups on defense return, too, so their play should be as good as '07 and could be better against the run. But they will miss linebacker Andre Lewis, by far their leading tackler last season.
Kicking Game (1 RS): 3-year starter Chris James has to be replaced at kicker, but reliable punter Jeremy Moore returns after averaging 41.7 yards last season.
Recruiting: Both of the Hilltoppers' recruiting classes the last two years have been ranked dead last in I-A. I believe because they are transitioning from Division I-AA, restrictions are still in place on numbers of scholarships. Starting in 2009 any restrictions should be gone, and their recruiting classes can be fairly judged against other teams.
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2008 Season Outlook The Hilltoppers played six I-A teams in '07; they play ten in '08. They played one BCS team in '07; the count will be four this season. Worse: only one of their wins last season was over a I-A squad.
After getting pasted 49-3 at Florida, WKU turned around in a big way, posting an 87-0 win over West Virginia Tech (NAIA). They beat I-AA rival Eastern Kentucky, and I-A Middle Tennessee before losing to Bowling Green (of Ohio—WKU is in Bowling Green, Kentucky) and Ball State. They closed with four I-AA wins and two I-A losses. The loss at North Texas, one of I-A's worst, was particularly disappointing, as even FIU defeated the Mean Green last year. But they finished with a winning record, even if skewed.
This year will be much tougher, of course. First off, only one of the I-AA games is a gimme: the rivalry game at Eastern Kentucky could be tough, though the Hilltoppers should win as the Colonels will be weaker than last year's squad (and those are the stats I'm using). Murray State shouldn't provide too much resistance in Bowling Green. After that, the wins become harder to find among the I-A foes. They get North Texas at home this year, and play at Florida International. Middle Tennessee at home is a 50/50 proposition, but I'll give WKU the overtime win. That leaves them a respectable 5-7. Fall short in any of those tossup games and they'll have to pick up a win somewhere else—and it probably won't come at Alabama, Kentucky, Virginia Tech or Indiana.
| 107. Kent State Golden Flashes |
2007 Results Record: 3-9 Bowl: n/a Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #111 Success: #111 Combined: #111
They might not become a world-beater, but Kent State should improve at least enough to pull itself out of the bottom 10 in the nation where they resided last season.
Offense (6 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #110 Adj. Rush Yards: #40 Adj. Pass Yards: #112
Back Eugene Jarvis (1,669 yards, 10 TDs) is the key return for this offense, though QB Julian Edelman can run the ball, too. It's his passing that leaves a bit to be desired oftentimes. If the Flashes desire to improve the passing game, all the keys are there: four returning quarterbacks, the top three receivers (of which Jarvis is one), and an O-line that returns three starters (note: now just two, with center Josh Perry gone). But something tells me they'll mostly stick to their strength, which is Jarvis, who could top 2,000 yards if he stays healthy.
Defense (8 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #100 Adj. Rush Def: #97 Adj. Pass Def: #92
Unlike the offense, the D didn't excel in any areas last year; they were poor across the board. Hope for improvement starts with all three linebackers returning, including Derek Burrell (112 tackles), to form a defensive core that helps stop the run and pressure the pass. The front four returns three starters, so the rushing D numbers should improve, but the secondary loses two starters including Jack Williams. Still, the defense overall retains all but two non-starters, so there's experience everywhere to fill the gaps.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Nate Reed returns as kicker. He had an unusual '07 season, hitting 5 of 6 outside the 40, but missing two inside the 30 as well as five extra points. Punter Jake Kilroy averaged only 36.6 last season but didn't have any blocked. The Flashes could use more consistency at both positions, and freshman Matt Rinehart came out of spring practice as the top punter for '08.
Recruiting: Kent State, like most MAC teams, isn't known for its recruiting. But sometimes schools like this get the most out of what they have, and the Golden Flashes are using their freshmen when needed. In addition to the aforementioned Rinehart, there are four freshmen (true or red) listed on the two-deep on the offensive line. Look for Kent State to have a dominant O-line two or three years?
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2008 Season Outlook Kent State started the 2007 season 3-2, beating Iowa State in addition to Ohio and I-AA Delaware State. They lost to Akron by 7 which turned out to be a harbinger. They would lose three more games by a touchdown including an overtime loss at Buffalo that completed a seven-game losing streak to close the season.
Most of their games were close, save those against stronger BCS teams like Kentucky and Ohio State. This year they should have a lot of close games, too, but should win more of them. They start in Cleveland against BC and travel to Iowa State again for a tough rematch. After that, though, I favor them in three of the next four, though none is a sure thing. The last five games are tough, too, but even the four they ought to lose aren't written in stone. Basically the Flashes season could go any direction. They have to win the close ones this year and they'll have a much-improved year.
| 108. Utah State Aggies |
2007 Results Record: 2-10 Bowl: n/a Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #110 Success: #114 Combined: #110
A worse offense but a much better defense may add up to a net slight improvement for Utah State.
Offense (6 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #108 Adj. Rush Yards: #91 Adj. Pass Yards: #103
Utah State loses its key player from last season, quarterback Leon Jackson, who was not prolific but completed 65% of his passes and had only 4 INTs. He was also the team's second leading net rusher and ran for 6 TDs. Also hurting the passing game is the loss of top receiver Kevin Robinson, though TE Rob Myers is back. Leading rusher Derrvin Speight (504 yds) returns as does Curtis Marsh (injured last year), so if the running game becomes more of a focus this unit can adjust.
Defense (9 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #102 Adj. Rush Def: #107 Adj. Pass Def: #50
Other than two losses on the D-line—covered well by the fact that they return almost the entire 2nd string—there isn't much bad news for the defense. Their best linebackers, Jake Hutton and Paul Igboeli, are back, and the secondary returns an incredible five starters at the four positions. Look for a much improved rushing defense, and for an already decent pass defense to excel.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Did we mention that Leon Jackson was the key player on this team? He was also the punter, and a pretty good one, too, averaging 41.3 yards. Kicker Peter Caldwell will probably take over for Jackson and do a decent job. As a kicker he was erratic on field goals last year but perfect on extra points.
Recruiting: The numbers over the last few years don't bode well for head coach Brent Guy. Now in his fourth year, his last two classes ranked near the bottom 10 in Division I-A. Though he's gotten a big vote of confidence from his A.D., a breakthrough year would really help for the future. The players must be good enough, though; the offense, in particular, is filled with several redshirt freshman playing second string this season.
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2008 Season Outlook If you're going to go 2-10, the Aggies did it right last year: they won their final two games. This is great for the following season's morale, though the 10-game losing streak makes for a painful season. Add the fact that the defense was giving up so many points (30+ eight times) that the offense must have felt futile. The D finally held in their final two games, though, allowing wins over New Mexico State and Idaho—both on the road.
Unfortunately for the Aggies, their momentum may be short-lived. Their non-conference schedule includes not only Pac-10 power Oregon, but also the two best teams in the Mountain West, BYU and of course, Utah. Thus, I have them favored only at home against New Mexico State and Idaho—the same two teams they beat on the road last year. Some of the other projections are close; San Jose State is a tossup, and a few others are winnable. Their cumulative win-percentage projection adds up to just over 4.5 wins, so a 5-7 season is not out of the question.
| 109. Tulane Green Wave |
2007 Results Record: 4-8 Bowl: n/a Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #108 Success: #105 Combined: #108
The bottom line for Tulane is the loss of Matt Forte. That and a porous pass defense adds up to another losing season in '08.
Offense (8 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #113 Adj. Rush Yards: #52 Adj. Pass Yards: #93
For a team with a 2,000 yard rusher, Tulane didn't score that much. Without a decent passing attack to support him, Matt Forte piled up the yards (2,127 of them) against stacked defenses, scored whenever he could (23 times), and watched as the team's three QBs threw for 10 TDs and 12 INTs while barely matching Forte's yardage total. Now the three QBs return to battle for the starting spot in Bob Toledo's triple option scheme; the best receivers return including Jeremy Williams, and the O-line should be solid, but no proven rushing threat exists to take pressure off the pass, though Andre Anderson (91 yards last year) will try. Whoever wins the starting QB spot is going to have a load on his shoulders, for he may end up having to carry the entire offense, they way Forte did last season.
Defense (7 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #97 Adj. Rush Def: #62 Adj. Pass Def: #114
The linebacking corps returns intact, anchored by Evan Lee. The front four loses two starters but the rushing defense should still be decent. Pressuring the opposing QB, however, is something they need to work on, since the secondary has holes to fill itself. Joe Goosby (91 tackles) is gone, and the returners didn't exactly inspire confidence last season. New defensive coordinator O'Neill Gilbert has a challenge ahead.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Kicker Ross Thevenot returns, and will continue to back up Darren deRochemont at punter.
Recruiting: Bob Toledo is in his second year as coach, and he followed the Hurricane Katrina disaster, so it's unclear if there are any recruiting trends since his arrival. The '07 class was not highly rated—near the bottom 10—while the '08 class was an improvement but not a breakthrough. The next few years will show whether he'll be able to bring top talent to Tulane.
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2008 Season Outlook In '07 the Wave beat only I-AA Southeast Louisiana and SMU in overtime in its first nine games. Along the way they got clobbered by Mississippi State, Houston, LSU, and Tulsa, and lost close ones to Army, UAB, and Memphis. Then they had their strongest wins, over UTEP and Rice, before dropping the final to East Carolina.
The schedule isn't very different this year; some of the locations have changed of course, but non-conference, there's still LSU and Army; Alabama replaces Mississippi State; and ULM is a step up from SE LA St. Still I see four wins for the team; they should beat SMU again and Rice again, and beat Army and UAB at home this time. ULM is a tossup that could put them at 5-7. The Wave could finish with a better record in '08 without really improving, since '07's close games could have put it at 7-5 pretty easily. This year they won't be as competitive in the losses, but there might be fewer of them overall. Everything depends, of course, on how the offense responds to life without Matt Forte.
| 110. San Jose State Spartans |
2007 Results Record: 5-7 Bowl: n/a Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #105 Success: #84 Combined: #105
The Spartans were overachievers last season, almost reaching bowl eligibility despite not being very good. I see them declining a bit in '08, so a bowl birth this year is doubtful.
Offense (6 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #117 Adj. Rush Yards: #114 Adj. Pass Yards: #37
San Jose State lived by the pass last season, and losing 3,000 yard passed Adam Tafralis (18TDs, 11 INT) is going to hurt. The team's best receivers, led by Kevin Jurovich, return, so if a good QB can be found the damage can be mitigated. Head coach Dick Tomey has stated that Myles Eden, who saw very limited action last year, is the current frontrunner. The running game, almost non-existent last year, loses top back Jacob French, but gains Yonus Davis, who is eligible for a sixth year and ran for over 1,000 yards in 2006. Three starters return on the line—even Justin Paysinger, who had a "career-ending" back injury, is playing again—so depending on how the QB situation works out, look for the Spartans to run the ball more this year, though Tomey would like to use the spread with his strong receiver corps.
Defense (6 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #79 Adj. Rush Def: #91 Adj. Pass Def: #26
Just as the running game was the offense's weakness, so too is stopping the run the D's problem. The front four should be much better this season, with three starters back and USC transfer Jeff Schweiger moving into the lineup. There are some losses in the secondary, but with Chris Owens back and Oregon State transfer Coye Francies coming in, the pass D should remain solid.
Kicking Game (1 RS): The Spartans need a new punter, and better results from returning kicker Jared Strubeck. Last season's punter Waylor Prather averaged 40 yards a kick but netted only 30, so the punt fielding team needs work, too. Strubeck hit only 10 of 20 FGs last year due to a slump, though he was perfect on extra points; he kicked only two touchbacks all year. The kicking game is a definite weakness for the Spartans.
Recruiting: Tomey's in his fourth year, so if recruiting is going to improve under him it should have shown it by now. Instead, the '08 class was one of the lowest rated in the nation. The '07 class was near the top 100, which isn't great, but shows that things may not be going in the right direction. To pick up the slack Tomey hauled in transferring Pac-10 players, such as the aforementioned players from USC and Oregon State in addition to former Cal QB Kyle Reed. But at some point recruiting has to get better if the Spartans are going to succeed long term.
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2008 Season Outlook SJSU opened '07 with three losses to BCS teams by an embarrassing 116-17 total. They then won tight contests over two of the worst teams in I-A (Utah State, Idaho), and I-AA Cal Poly. Three of the best WAC teams beat them, though they took Hawaii to overtime. They closed with their only dominant win, 51-17 over New Mexico State, a close loss to Louisiana Tech, and another close win over Nevada. So basically, they beat two teams with that had a pulse last year, and that's counting N.M.St. as one of them.
This season looks to be chock full of close games. San Diego State, Utah State, at New Mexico State, at Idaho, and Louisiana Tech are all tossups. I credit them with 3 of the 5 in the 4-8 result, and adding everything up, the odds favor them matching last year's tally. The only solid win on the schedule is UC Davis at home, and there are six games in which the Spartans will be distinct underdogs.
So it's a fine line between 6-6 bowl eligibility and a disastrous 1-11 effort. I don't think they'll sink to the latter, but without finding a solid quarterback to run their offense, the former will be out of reach.
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