SportsRatings is ranking all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August until the season begins. These rankings are meant to reflect how good the teams might be in 2008 without taking schedule into account.
Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for each team, and two projected records are given: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and another cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty in the predictions. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. (Schedule listings adapted from James Howell's site)
This installment covers teams from #101 to #105. To see the full list, click here.
| 101. Arkansas State Red Wolves |
2007 Results Record: 5-7 Bowl: n/a Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #93 Success: #90 Combined: #93
The Wolves (formerly the Indians) return a lot of key people, especially on offense, but overall losses suggest a slightly lesser team this season. A friendlier schedule could mean a better record, though.
Offense (6 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #103 Adj. Rush Yards: #55 Adj. Pass Yards: #92
Arkansas State was better on the ground than through the air last season, mostly because of junior Reggie Arnold (1,060 yards, 9 TDs) and the fact that QB Corey Leonard is a strong runner (over 500 yards net) and mediocre passer (52%, 16TD, 15 INT). Still, the dual threat makes him dangerous, and many of his best receivers return, though they lose #1 Levi Dejohnette. The O-line will be an issue, replacing four starters, and how it recovers will determine a lot of the offense's direction. And with 2nd string RB Preston Brown suspended for '08, Arnold's full recovery from shoulder surgery is crucial.
Defense (5 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #76 Adj. Rush Def: #71 Adj. Pass Def: #20
The defense was the bright spot from last year, especially the pass defense. Unfortunately all four starters in the secondary are gone, meaning the top 25 level adjusted pass yardage yielded is going to worsen. The rushing defense should improve, as five of the seven linemen return, and if they can increase the pressure they can compensate for the secondary until it gets up to speed. Overall four of the top five tacklers are gone but Ben Owens returns at linebacker.
Kicking Game (2 RS): The Wolves are pretty well set at punter and kicker, with both starters returning, having delivered decent though unspectacular numbers last season. Punter Brett Shrable averaged over 40 yards, and Josh Arauco made all his XP attempts.
Recruiting: Arkansas State's '07 class ranked a respectable 81st but the '08 class fell to 109th. Though their average recruit in '08 is better, they didn't get the few 3- and 4-star players they got in '07. The handful of freshmen listed in the 2-deep are redshirts from the '07 class.
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2008 Season Outlook Last season had its ups and downs, for certain, with wins following losses and vice versa. They gave Texas a scare in the opener before falling 21-13. They beat SMU and lost to Tennesse as expected, then had an incredible comeback to beat Memphis, followed by a loss where ULM made the comeback. After beating Louisiana-Lafayette they had their only 2-game skid to Middle Tennessee and Troy by a combined 51-7. In their last four, they squeeked past lowly FIU and North Texas, and lost to FAU and Southern Miss.
The '08 schedule essentially trades SMU for Texas Southern, granting ASU an almost-guaranteed win. But after the Middle Tennessee game the Wolves only have two games out of eight at home. This might make it hard to win the close contests, which they must do to reach six wins.
| 102. Texas El-Paso Miners |
2007 Results Record: 4-8 Bowl: n/a Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #100 Success: #93 Combined: #100
QB Trevor Vittatoe returns for the Miners, but many of his skilled teammates from last year are gone; the defense should improve, leaving the Miners not significantly better or worse than they were last season.
Offense (5 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #66 Adj. Rush Yards: #87 Adj. Pass Yards: #36
Vittatoe's 3,000+ yards and, more importantly, his 25-7 TD/INT ratio will insure that UTEP still has a passing game despite losing four top receivers. #1 target Jeff Moturi is back, though, and three starters return on the line. But last year the running game took pressure off Vittatoe, and the Miners lose the top backs including Marcus Thomas (1,166 yds. 16 TDs).
Defense (7 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #114 Adj. Rush Def: #115 Adj. Pass Def: #111
The defense couldn't stop the run, the pass, or scoring last season, and things got worse with leading tackler Braxton Amy tearing his ACL in the spring. This left the linebacking corps with only one starter back in the new 3-3-5 scheme where Amy was to play a hybrid LB/safety. But overall the rushing defense should be better, with all three front lineman returning, and the pass D could benefit from several returnees as well.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Excellent kicker Jose Martinez has both accuracy and distance, hitting 17 of 20 last year. Punter Kyle Peterson averaged 40+ with no blocks, which is good enough.
Recruiting: Not great, not atrocious—the last two classes have been in the top 100 but not much higher. There aren't many freshman, redshirt or otherwise, in the 2-deep.
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2008 Season Outlook UTEP was lucky to get four wins last season. They beat New Mexico and Tulsa by a total of 5 points, beat SMU in overtime, and Div I-A Texas Southern (by 40). After starting 4-2, they lost six straight to close the season. The first three were very tight losses: East Carolina in overtime, Houston by 3, Rice by 8. Their last three weren't as competitive.
The best chances for wins this season come against New Mexico State, SMU, Rice, and Tulane at home. The road game at Lafayette should be a win, too, giving them five for the season. The problem is, there's not much room for error. None of the seven losses looks particularly appealing for an upset. Though the Wolves could beat Buffalo, Houston, or Southern Miss on the road, or UCF at home, I wouldn't count on it and after that the odds get worse.
With few gimme games, I expect UTEP to reach the 5-7 mark projected, or even fall a game short and match last year's record. The defense would need to improve greatly under the new scheme for the Miners to reach bowl eligibility this season.
| 103. Ohio Bobcats |
2007 Results Record: 6-6 Bowl: n/a Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #91 Success: #97 Combined: #91
Ohio returns a respectable number of starters and lots of experience overall, but several key losses drop them a level at a time when the rest of the MAC is loaded.
Offense (6 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #72 Adj. Rush Yards: #98 Adj. Pass Yards: #69
The Bobcats problem isn't that they lose last year's starting QB Brad Bower; backup Theo Scott performed well, with a better TD/INT ratio and can run the ball to boot. No, the main problem is the loss of RB Kalvin McRae (1,434 yards) who had more touchdowns (19) than all of Ohio's QB threw for in '07. Unless Chris Garrett can fill McRae's shoes, a decrease in the ground game will inevitably hurt the passing game, which has good potential with solid tight ends Andrew Mooney and David Carter returning.
Defense (7 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #105 Adj. Rush Def: #109 Adj. Pass Def: #85
The D needs help across the board, and with added experience this year they might have it. The biggest problem is the rushing D, and with two starters on the line, and two of three linebackers, this should improve. Three of four starters return in the secondary. But beyond the starting lineup, Ohio has a wealth of returning backups ready to fill in, losing just four of 32 non-starters on defense.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Punter Matt Schulte returns; he averaged only 37.6 per punt, but netted a decent 35.6. The Bobcats will miss kicker Michael Braunstein, who made every extra point and 20/24 FG last season.
Recruiting: Frank Solich hasn't transformed Ohio into a recruiting powerhouse. Their last two classes are barely in the top 100, which might work out ok in the MAC. This season's big catch might be JUCO transfer Boo Jackson, who is pressing Scott for the starting QB job after a great spring game.
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2008 Season Outlook Last year's 6-6 record might imply a team in the middle of the college football I-A pack, but looks can be deceiving. The Bobcats' schedule included non-conference wins over I-AA Gardner-Webb and weak LA-Lafayette. They lost their next four, but rebounded with wins over Eastern Michigan, Bowling Green, Temple, and Miami Ohio. None of their wins was really dominant, and their biggest loss margin was 21—strangely, to both Virginia Tech and Buffalo.
The problem in 2008 can be summed up in one acronym: MAC. While Ohio may be slipping this season, the rest of the conference is returning starters by the fistfull, and most of the teams have improved immensely. This leaves conference wins few and far between. It doesn't help that Ohio State is back on the schedule, either.
After the almost certain OSU loss and VMI win, Ohio faces a stretch of tossup games, most of which they should probably fall just short in. But the cumulative uncertainty of these games adds up to a 5-7 season. With luck they can reach last year's total, but bad luck would put them 2-10 or worse. With almost every game up for grabs, Ohio needs to establish a quarterback and running back to have any hope of improving on last season.
| 104. Akron Zips |
2007 Results Record: 4-8 Bowl: n/a Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #102 Success: #104 Combined: #102
An offense that will be lucky to improve and a shaky defense puts Akron about where they were last year: near the bottom of the MAC, unless a series of internal trades between the offense and defense can pay big dividends.
Offense (8 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #105 Adj. Rush Yards: #103 Adj. Pass Yards: #96
Chris Jacquemain and Carlton Jackson combined for just over 2,000 passing yards last season, half of which went to Jabari Arthur, who had 10 TD receptions. Jacquemain (11 TDs, 10 INTs) is back, but Arthur is not. This is where the Zips problems start. To cover the loss, coach JD Brookhart moved safety Andre Jones to wide receiver; to cover that loss, leading rusher Bryan Williams (791 yards) moved to safety. Confused yet? Hopefully the players aren't. The offensive line remains mostly intact and should help ease the major transitions the offense will be going through.
Defense (5 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #95 Adj. Rush Def: #110 Adj. Pass Def: #79
The front six (or seven) look to be about the same overall as last season, but the interesting area is the secondary, of course, for the reasons stated above. Jones was the team's second leading tackler, but in the spring game Williams had 11 tackles and a sack. No other starters return for the secondary.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Both kickers return, and though punter John Stec is hardly an all-star he gets the job done. Kicker Igor Iveljic made 15 of 18 field goals last season, so the kicking game is one area of needed stability for the Zips.
Recruiting: Akron's recruiting isn't bad for a lower-level MAC team, but that's not what they aspire to be. Both classes rank 75th-80th in the country, and a handful of frosh are listed in the 2nd string. But transfers from BCS schools have been a good source for the Zips lately, garnering potential starting RB Andrew Johnson from Miami FL, starting nose tackle Ryan Bain from Iowa, and WR Jeremy Bruce from West Virginia.
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2008 Season Outlook '07 was a pretty pedestrian year for the Zips. After beating Army, Kent State, and Western Michigan in unimpressively close games, Akron stood 3-3, the losses coming to BCS schools. They finished 1-5, however, losing close games to Temple, Miami Ohio (7-0 final) and Central Michigan.
This season, with a much tougher MAC conference, looks daunting; the Zips might finish with just two wins, and one of those is contingent on a tossup contest against Toledo. On the bright side, almost all of the games on the schedule are winnable: Syracuse and Kent State would be wins if at home, and Bowling Green, Eastern Michigan, Buffalo, and Ohio are definite possibilities too.
The bottom line is that Akron is going to face many close games this season. If their position-shifting scheme works out and the Zips are bowl eligible, JD Brookhart will look like a coaching genius.
| 105. Syracuse Orange |
2007 Results Record: 2-10 Bowl: n/a Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #98 Success: #100 Combined: #98
It's rare to see a BCS team outside the top 100 teams in the nation, but Syracuse came really close last year, and given the losses from last season it looks like the Orangemen will fall into the bottom 20.
Offense (5 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #97 Adj. Rush Yards: #116 Adj. Pass Yards: #53
Quarterback Andrew Robinson had a few atrocious games last year—the shutout against Iowa comes to mind—but he finished with over 50% completions, over 2,000 yards, and 13TDs to 7 INTs. Reserve Cameron Dantley did similarly, starting when Robinson was injured, and has excelled in the spring. The problem is that Mike Williams—the team's leading receiver with 10 TDs—is academically ineligible. That leaves the Orange QBs without their top four targets. On the bright side, this might be the perfect time to switch to a new run-based offense, the kind that ex-Minnesota coordinator Mitch Browning is implementing. The running game ranked 116th last year and looked terrible in the spring game, though '06 standout Deleon Carter hadn't returned yet.
Defense (5 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #94 Adj. Rush Def: #90 Adj. Pass Def: #110
The defense's losses go beyond the starters like safety Joe Fields and defensive end Jameel McClain. Though backups will fill some holes adequately, the defense loses a lot of lettermen from last season. If injuries take hold, this unit could actually get worse than last season.
Kicking Game (2 RS): The one bright spot for the Orange is the kicking game, with punter Rob Long averaging 41.9 yards on a whopping 75 attempts. Kicker Patrick Shadle is good enough, especially for this team, hitting 10 of 14 field goals and 23 of 24 extra points.
Recruiting: Coach Greg Robinson has been on the "hot seat" for a while now. His downfall hasn't been recruiting; both classes from the last two years rank (just barely) in the top 50. While most BCS schools would say that's barely adequate, a team struggle to stay in the top 100 schools should be thankful for those numbers. Put another way though: they're recruiting at about the same level as Kansas.
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2008 Season Outlook Syracuse started the 2007 campaign by being taken apart by Washington, shut out by Iowa in a dismal performance, and made it 0-3 vs. Illinois, losing each game by 21+.
Then, somehow, inexplicably, the Orange upset Louisville in one of college football's biggest ever upsets. We now know the Cards were overrated, but the fact that the Orange were such huge underdogs shows how far the program has fallen.
That would turn out to be the season's highlight, of course, as Syracuse went 1-7 from that point on, beating lowly Buffalo but no more Big East teams.
This season they scheduled I-AA Northeastern as part of a four-game home stretch, during which they might get all of their wins. The Akron game is a tossup, Northeastern should be a win, but after that? Expect losses, and not very close ones. They might be able to beat Louisville again this year, at home, but doing better than 3-9 will be tough. The cumulative projection just barely calls for a fourth win. More than likely, though, Syracuse will match last year's record and have a new head coach in 2009.
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