Here are my projections for the conference races in 2008. Before each team is the team's ranking in my pre-season 1-120 rankings.
ACC |
|
| Atlantic division | |
| (11) Clemson | 8-0 |
| (25) Maryland | 7-1 |
| (33) Wake Forest | 6-2 |
| (28) Florida State | 5-3 |
| (47) Boston College | 3-5 |
| (91) N.C. State | 0-8 |
| Coastal division | |
| (37) North Carolina | 7-1 |
| (36) Virginia Tech | 4-4 |
| (67) Georgia Tech | 3-5 |
| (64) Virginia | 2-6 |
| (73) Duke | 2-6 |
| (72) Miami | 1-7 |
Clemson is the winner of the ACC, meeting surprising North Carolina in the conference championship game. The Tar Heel schedule helps them out—they avoid Clemson during the regular season, and have Virginia Tech at home.
Overall the Atlantic division is far stronger than the Coastal; four of the Atlantic's teams are better than the best Coastal teams.
Maryland is another surprise team. Wake Forest, though clearly the fourth best in the subdivision, gets FSU when the Seminoles are weakened by suspension, so they slip into 3rd place.
North Carolina State is the dog of the conference, but Miami is the shocking last place in the Coastal division. Duke is roughly Miami's equal this season, and gets them at home.
Big East
|
|
| (7) West Virginia | 7-0 |
| (4) South Florida | 6-1 |
| (19) Connecticut | 4-3 |
| (21) Cincinnati | 4-3 |
| (26) Pittsburgh | 3-4 |
| (29) Rutgers | 3-4 |
| (69) Louisville | 1-6 |
| (105) Syracuse | 0-7 |
No surprise here—West Virginia gets the BCS bid of the Big East. But they're actually rated 2nd in the conference. The Mountaineers host the USF Bulls in Morgantown in the last game of the season, and that's the difference: home field advantage.
That advantage comes in handy for the #3 and #5 teams as well. Connecticut takes third by virtue of beating Cincinnati in Hartford, and Pitt at home defeats Rutgers. Fading Louisville and stumbling Syracuse round out the smallest BCS conference.
Big Ten
|
|
| (1) Ohio State | 8-0 |
| (17) Penn State | 7-1 |
| (34) Michigan | 6-2 |
| (42) Michigan State | 5-3 |
| (41) Wisconsin | 4-4 |
| (43) Illinois | 4-4 |
| (66) Indiana | 3-5 |
| (55) Iowa | 3-5 |
| (54) Purdue | 3-5 |
| (79) Minnesota | 1-7 |
| (71) Northwestern | 0-8 |
Ohio State will once again rule the Big Ten, regardless of whether they beat USC. Penn State is a distant second, and Michigan a distant third. Most years, a team outside the top 25 wouldn't have a hope of finishing third in the conference.
Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Illinois are logjammed but a pecking order emerges as the Spartans win five games and Wisconsin beats the Illini in Madison. Another logjam for seventh place sees a true A beats B beats C beats A tie, but Indiana may have the best overall record, and the Hawkeyes beat the Boilers in Iowa City. Minnesota even manages an overtime home win over Northwestern to avoid the cellar.
Big Twelve
|
|
| North division | |
| (6) Missouri | 8-0 |
| (8) Kansas | 6-2 |
| (50) Nebraska | 3-5 |
| (40) Colorado | 3-5 |
| (48) Kansas State | 2-6 |
| (95) Iowa State | 0-8 |
| South division | |
| (3) Oklahoma | 8-0 |
| (5) Texas Tech | 6-2 |
| (13) Texas | 4-4 |
| (49) Texas A&M | 4-4 |
| (35) Oklahoma State | 3-5 |
| (89) Baylor | 1-7 |
Oklahoma and Missouri both finish undefeated and face each other in the Big Twelve championship game in Kansas City. The Sooners have the slight edge to get the automatic BCS bowl bid, and in their case it will probably be the national championship game.
The South division is especially loaded this year, with Texas Tech in the top five but still losing twice in-conference. Texas is #13 nationally but only manages an even Big 12 record. Oklahoma State beats A&M, but the latter has a kinder schedule and finishes ahead anyway, while Baylor avoids the overall cellar by beating the Cyclones.
In the North, Kansas loses to both the division winners but beats everyone else, including Texas and Texas Tech at home.
Pac Ten
|
|
| (15) Southern Cal | 9-0 |
| (10) Oregon | 8-1 |
| (27) Arizona | 7-2 |
| (18) Arizona State | 6-3 |
| (32) California | 5-4 |
| (51) Washington | 4-5 |
| (53) UCLA | 3-6 |
| (62) Stanford | 2-7 |
| (52) Oregon State | 1-8 |
| (63) Washington St. | 0-9 |
The Pac Ten is full of surprises. First off, USC isn't the best team—that's Oregon, despite losing Dennis Dixon and many others. But the Trojans are just strong enough to win the showdown at home. The 50/50 game tilted to Southern Cal when Duck starter Nick Costa was lost for the season.
The rest of the Pac-10 follows in perfect descending wins records, with surprise Arizona in third, as they upset ASU in Tuscon. Arizona and Stanford are the only Pac-10 teams better than they were last season. But Washington improves their record. Oregon State is the hard-luck case of the year.
SEC
|
|
| East division | |
| (2) Florida | 8-0 |
| (14) South Carolina | 7-1 |
| (9) Georgia | 6-2 |
| (20) Tennessee | 4-4 |
| (30) Kentucky | 3-5 |
| (61) Vanderbilt | 0-8 |
| West division | |
| (16) Auburn | 7-1 |
| (12) Louisiana State | 4-4 |
| (23) Alabama | 4-4 |
| (44) Mississippi State | 3-5 |
| (41) Arkansas | 1-7 |
| (60) Mississippi | 1-7 |
Saving the best for last, the Southeastern Conference throws a few curves as well. AP #1 Georgia doesn't even win the East division—they place 3rd to Florida and South Carolina. And defending champ LSU doesn't win the West. Auburn—the fifth best team in the conference—takes on Florida for the automatic BCS bid, but the Gators prevail.
While Auburn has a favorable schedule, LSU faces most of the top teams on the road and finishes just 4-4. Alabama and Mississippi State are improved, but find it hard to get traction in this league. Without McFadden and Jones, Arkansas can only manage a win over Mississippi.
Which is better than Vanderbilt can do. The Commodores, along with Kentucky, are an improving program trapped in a deep conference. Tennessee, like LSU, finds that having a good team doesn't insure a winning SEC record.
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