NFL observers can't help but to have noticed a dropoff in New England's dominance this season in the NFL from their early games to their more recent contests. But putting it into numbers makes it very plain. Blowing out all opponents on their way to 8-0, the road to 16-0 was much more difficult. Here's a look at how they've done over the entire season, and by halves of seasons.
New England is obviously the top team in the NFL. Undefeated, 16-0, and in points-based power ratings an 8 or 9 point favorite over the next-best team.
rnk Team rec rating off def
1. New England Patriots 16-0 20.29 37.62 17.32
2. Indianapolis Colts 13-3 11.65 28.07 16.41
3. Dallas Cowboys 13-3 9.39 29.38 19.98
4. Green Bay Packers 13-3 8.97 27.19 18.22
5. San Diego Chargers 12-5 8.83 25.48 16.64
6. Jacksonville Jaguars 12-5 7.13 26.97 19.84
7. Pittsburgh Steelers 10-7 5.68 23.20 17.52
8. Philadelphia Eagles 8-8 4.84 21.52 16.67
9. Seattle Seahawks 11-6 3.51 23.44 19.93
10. Minnesota Vikings 8-8 3.40 22.58 19.17
11. New York Giants 11-6 3.38 24.45 21.06
12. Washington Redskins 9-8 2.90 21.08 18.18
13. Chicago Bears 7-9 1.51 21.30 19.78
14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-8 0.86 19.02 18.16
15. Tennessee Titans 10-7 0.42 18.05 17.63
16. Houston Texans 8-8 -0.34 24.02 24.37
17. Cleveland Browns 10-6 -0.97 23.38 24.35
18. Cincinnati Bengals 7-9 -2.03 23.42 25.46
19. New Orleans Saints 7-9 -2.47 23.58 26.05
20. New York Jets 5-11 -2.80 17.70 20.51
21. Arizona Cardinals 8-8 -3.52 23.26 26.79
22. Detroit Lions 7-9 -3.99 22.74 26.74
23. Denver Broncos 7-9 -4.14 20.80 24.94
24. Kansas City Chiefs 4-12 -5.74 14.12 19.86
25. Buffalo Bills 6-10 -5.85 15.19 21.04
26. Carolina Panthers 7-9 -5.91 15.73 21.65
27. Oakland Raiders 4-12 -6.35 18.06 24.42
28. Baltimore Ravens 5-11 -6.96 16.17 23.13
29. Miami Dolphins 1-15 -8.65 17.09 25.74
30. Atlanta Falcons 4-12 -10.54 15.67 26.21
31. San Francisco 49ers 5-11 -11.90 11.49 23.39
32. St. Louis Rams 3-13 -12.67 15.32 28.00
But if we split New England into two teams, their first eight games and their last eight games, it yields the following result: rnk Team rec rating off def
1a New England Patriots 1 8-0 26.29 41.73 15.43
1b New England Patriots 2 8-0 14.30 33.52 19.21
2. Indianapolis Colts 13-3 11.26 27.94 16.68
3. Dallas Cowboys 13-3 9.74 29.47 19.72
4. San Diego Chargers 12-5 9.16 25.57 16.40
5. Green Bay Packers 13-3 9.01 27.22 18.20
6. Jacksonville Jaguars 12-5 7.05 26.92 19.86
7. Pittsburgh Steelers 10-7 5.36 23.12 17.75
8. Philadelphia Eagles 8-8 4.52 21.43 16.91
9. Seattle Seahawks 11-6 3.50 23.44 19.93
10. Minnesota Vikings 8-8 3.45 22.61 19.16
11. Washington Redskins 9-8 3.23 21.17 17.94
12. New York Giants 11-6 3.08 24.37 21.29
Which is quite amazing. The first-half-of-season Patriots are a full 15 points better than the Colts, whereas the 2nd-half-of-season team is about 3 points better. Indeed, in the ninth game of the year—where their dominance disappeared—they beat the Colts by 4 points (though it was a road game).
After that, they struggled with Philadelphia, even Baltimore, and the New York Giants, though they still finished a record 16-0.
In the first half of the season, the Patriots beat San Diego 38-14, Dallas 48-27, and Washington 52-7. It's fair to say that while the 1st-half team was arguably the best in NFL history—even when compared relatively rather than absolutely—the 2nd-half team is merely the best in the NFL this season.
The drop-off has occurred both on offense and defense, though it is more pronounced on offense, where they average 8 points per-game fewer after adjusting for schedule. The defense also gives up four more points, dropping from the best defense to the 8th best.
What does this mean for the playoffs? Well, the odds I figured for the playoffs were based on New England's overall team average. If you look at their 2nd-half team, these odds change drastically.
Here are the odds the playoff teams have to beat the Patriots:
Team vs. Pats vs. Pats 1st half vs. Pats 2nd half
Jacksonville 22.8 11.8 33.8
San Diego 22.8 9.6 37.5
Indianapolis 27.7 14.1 39.8
Dallas 28.9 14.8 43.8
Green Bay 25.8 13.3 39.1
Seattle 18.8 5.1 31.6
NY Giants 16.5 1.5 29.4
Note the huge percentage rise for some of these teams. In particular, the Giants wouldn't have stood a chance against the Patriots in November, but have pretty good odds now, and as we saw in New York when they led by 12 points.
Here are New England's cumulative odds of reaching and winning the Super Bowl:
Patriots odds of making Super Bowl
Entire season team: 57.3%
1st half of season team odds: 77.3%
2nd half of season team odds: 40.4%
Odds of winning Super Bowl if they get there
Entire season team: 75.2%
1st half of season team: 88.8%
2nd half of season team: 61.4%
Overall odds of being Super Bowl champs
Entire season team: 43.1%
1st half of season team: 68.6%
2nd half of season team: 24.8%
A very different story. The first-half of season team was almost a Super Bowl shoo-in; the second half team still has good odds of making it, better than 50% odds of winning it if they make it, and a still-high 25% chance of being the team to win it all. When there are eight teams left, this is double the odds of an average team. But it's nothing compared to the over 2/3 odds the 8-0 team would have.
If anything this should give hope to Dallas and Green Bay fans for their Super Bowl hopes—and Jacksonville and Indianapolis fans for their hopes of getting to the game.
But if New England's second-half swoon was due due to laziness or mental fatigue, and the Patriots have re-asserted themselves for the playoffs and can regain their early-season form, this hope may be short-lived.
In any case, the "new" Patriots are still, on average, the best team in the NFL this season. The dominance they showed in the first half of the year wasn't present over last few months; it will be interesting to see whether they can turn it back up today.
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