The New England Patriots have been made a 12 point favorite over the New York Giants by Vegas. This is one of the bigger lines in Super Bowl history: out of the 41 contents, the line was in single digits 28 times. But it's not nearly the largest; that title goes to Super Bowl III in 1969, with the New York Jets were up to 19 point underdogs to the Baltimore Colts. The Jets, of course, won the game as guaranteed by Joe Namath. The San Francisco 49ers were favored by about the same amount over the San Diego Chargers in 1995, and covered, winning by 23.
The last time a team was favored by more than 12 was in 2002; this time the Patriots were the underdog, and like the Jets they pulled off the upset, beating the Rams 20-17 in Super Bowl XXXVI.
Looking at score data for information, we turn to the power ratings, updated for the conference championships. Viewing the predictive component, which uses score info only, New England dominates the league as it has all year, and the Giants, despite their recent success, are far down the list.
rnk Team rec rating off def
1. New England Patriots 18-0 19.66 36.54 16.88
2. Indianapolis Colts 13-4 11.03 28.13 17.09
3. San Diego Chargers 13-6 9.33 25.45 16.11
4. Green Bay Packers 14-4 9.17 27.55 18.38
5. Dallas Cowboys 13-4 8.69 28.73 20.03
6. Jacksonville Jaguars 12-6 7.09 26.77 19.67
7. Pittsburgh Steelers 10-7 5.30 23.06 17.75
8. Philadelphia Eagles 8-8 4.69 21.54 16.85
9. New York Giants 13-6 4.29 24.32 20.02
10. Minnesota Vikings 8-8 3.41 22.64 19.22
When every game during the course of the season is counted equally, the Giants' recent performance doesn't carry more weight. Though they beat Dallas and Green Bay, they lost twice to Dallas and once to Green Bay earlier in the season. The Patriots 1st half of season dominance belies the close games they had in the 2nd half of the year. With these parameters, the prediction is bleak for the Giants:
New England Patriots 35
New York Giants 20
Spread = 15.36
Over/under = 54.64
% chance to win:
New England Patriots 83.3%
New York Giants 16.7%
Here the formula predicts an easy win for the Pats, slightly larger than the line. And five chances out of six to yield a New England victory when game results are cross-compared.
When the Patriots and Giants played recently, the result was a 3 point win for New England. Given that New England is not playing as well as it did in the 1st half of the season, and that New York's recent performance is much better than their average, can we make the power rating more sensitive to this?
As I've done before, I split the Patriots into their 1st half and 2nd half of season team; then I took it a step further and isolated the Giants' last five games, which includes the game with the Patriots as well as their playoff run. rnk Team rec rating off def
1. New England Patriots 10-0 27.04 42.23 15.19
2. New York Giants 2 4-1 12.75 31.66 18.90
3. New England Patriots 2 8-0 11.80 29.75 17.94
4. Indianapolis Colts 13-4 11.34 28.16 16.82
5. Green Bay Packers 14-4 9.32 27.72 18.39
6. San Diego Chargers 13-6 9.29 25.59 16.29
7. Dallas Cowboys 13-4 9.14 28.74 19.59
8. Jacksonville Jaguars 12-6 6.77 26.86 20.09
9. Pittsburgh Steelers 10-7 4.94 23.09 18.15
10. Philadelphia Eagles 8-8 3.80 21.42 17.62
11. Minnesota Vikings 8-8 2.99 22.72 19.72
12. Washington Redskins 9-8 2.77 21.35 18.58
13. Seattle Seahawks 11-7 2.36 23.48 21.11
14. Chicago Bears 7-9 1.18 21.45 20.26
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-8 1.04 18.96 17.92
16. New York Giants 9-5 0.77 21.87 21.09
Now we see the parity between the Giants' recent performance and New England's 2nd half of the season. In fact, New York is about a point better by this measure, which admittedly cherry-picks the Giants' best stretch of games. But that stretch contains their most recent performances, so it may be reflective of their current level of play going into the Super Bowl.
New York Giants 2 28
New England Patriots 2 27
Spread = 0.94
Over/under = 54.84
% chance to win:
New England Patriots 2 55%
New York Giants 2 45%
So by recent performance, the Giants are a 1 point favorite. But, when comparing game-by-game performance, the Patriots are still judged more likely to win overall...
But can we count on these teams to play as they have recently? Will the Giants revert to their earlier form, where as we can see they wouldn't stay on the field with New England? And could the Patriots recapture their early-season form, in which case again, they would blow out anyone? If those Pats show up, then we're back to a 15-point win for New England.
New York's recent performance has been pretty consistent. So let's assume their level of play is going to remain constant. New England, within its last eight games, has shown varying performance levels ranging from the near-loss to Baltimore to the 34-13 controlling of Pittsburgh. And with the Super Bowl and a 19-0 season at hand, it's very possible that they might be able to regain the hunger and form they had early in the season. If that happens, we might see this:
New England Patriots 39
New York Giants 2 25
A higher scoring game, similar in spread to our original estimate. Notice that the Patriots' decline in their last eight games is almost completely on offense; their defense has been pretty much the same all year.
And what about the chance for a blowout? Nearly half of history's Super Bowls could be considered blowouts or at least very one-sided matches. I don't think it's possible that the Giants can blow out the Patriots; if they manage to win, it will be like their recent playoff games, a close contest. But if the Patriots come out firing and Giants have a bad game? It might look like this:
New England Patriots 42
New York Giants 15
in this case, the Patriots regain their early-season form (1st 10 games) while the Giants revert to theirs (first 14 games).
The question is which scenario is the most likely. And I don't see the Giants winning this game. The Patriots took their best shot several weeks ago, and that's after every team probing for New England's weaknesses. What more can they have discovered in the interim? Unless Tom Brady's ankle really is hurt and Randy Moss can't play, or they've come up with new schemes to effectively rattle the Patriots' defense, the miracle win remains a long shot.
Though the Pats have played erratically in the last eight games, their place in history is on the line. Therefore I think we'll see the Patriots of old (meaning, September-October) in Arizona. And they'll want to win by a lot, so trying to run up the score isn't out of the question. But at the same time, the Giants aren't going to roll over, and just like New England let up their intensity in the 2nd half of the season, almost spoiling their perfect record, the Pat defense will nap a bit in the fourth quarter if the game's well in hand.
A New York win is possible if the right conditions appear; I just don't think New England will play along. It won't be a blowout per sé, but I'd take New England to regain most of their magic and put the Giants away.
New England Patriots 42
New York Giants 24
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