With losses by Indianapolis and Dallas, the New England Patriots' march toward making history just got a lot easier. Both their odds for making the Super Bowl and chances of winning the big game were improved as their top two potential foes were knocked off on Sunday.
This is important, because as the number below suggest, the Patriots' "B-squad" is continuing to show up in the playoff season. This is New England's 2nd half-of-season team, not their dominant 1st-half squad. Here were the projected scores for the New England-Jacksonville game for New England's overall team, their 1st-half-of-season team, and 2nd-half team:
Overall
New England 37 Jacksonville 22
1st-half team
New England 41 Jacksonville 20
2nd-half team
New England 33 Jacksonville 24
Clearly the final result (31-20) was closest to the 2nd-half team projection, both in final score and how close the game was. The Patriots are continuing to play the way they have in the 2nd half of the season; that is, still the best team in the NFL but not the best NFL team of all time, which they may very well have been at 8-0. Here's an updated comparison between the power ratings, first with New England's entire season considered:
rnk Team rec rating off def
1. New England Patriots 17-0 19.88 37.22 17.33
2. Indianapolis Colts 13-4 11.10 28.10 17.00
3. Green Bay Packers 14-3 9.78 28.13 18.34
4. San Diego Chargers 13-5 9.28 25.96 16.67
5. Dallas Cowboys 13-4 8.72 28.70 19.97
6. Jacksonville Jaguars 12-6 7.18 26.79 19.61
7. Pittsburgh Steelers 10-7 5.40 23.11 17.71
8. Philadelphia Eagles 8-8 4.73 21.53 16.79
9. New York Giants 12-6 3.87 24.37 20.49
And with New England split into season-halves: rnk Team rec rating off def
1a New England Patriots 8-0 26.14 41.68 15.54
1b New England Patriots 2 9-0 14.38 33.28 18.90
2. Indianapolis Colts 13-4 10.70 27.97 17.27
3. Green Bay Packers 14-3 9.83 28.15 18.32
4. San Diego Chargers 13-5 9.55 26.00 16.45
5. Dallas Cowboys 13-4 9.09 28.79 19.69
6. Jacksonville Jaguars 12-6 6.79 26.65 19.86
7. Pittsburgh Steelers 10-7 5.11 23.04 17.93
8. Philadelphia Eagles 8-8 4.48 21.49 17.01
9. New York Giants 12-6 3.66 24.34 20.68
With that in mind, I will continue to project the cumulative Super Bowl odds, but using both New England's overall and 2nd-half-of-season teams for the projections (in brackets).
Next week's conference championships - odds to win
New England Patriots 76.1% [64.2%]
San Diego Chargers 23.9% [35.8%]
New York Giants 35.0%
Odds to reach and win Super Bowl
Team odds to win: conf. champ Super Bowl winner
New England 76.1% [64.2%] 57.5% [41.8%]
San Diego 23.9% [35.8%] 13.0% [19.6%]
Green Bay 65.0% 21.6% [27.6%]
New York Giants 35.0% 7.9% [11.0%]
The Pats are still big favorites, but their odds decrease markedly if you look only at their play in the 2nd half of the season. Their odds vs. their potential NFC foes look like this (2nd half number in brackets):
New England Patriots 71.6% [61.4%]
Green Bay Packers 28.4% [38.6%]
New York Giants 17.0% [27.8%]
Clearly the bracketed numbers reflect how they are playing today. Interestingly, San Diego is favored by the game-comparison system over both New York and Green Bay, though they're behind the Packers in overall average:
San Diego Chargers 51.3%
Green Bay Packers 48.7%
San Diego Chargers 60.5%
New York Giants 39.5%
So if the Chargers can make it past the Patriots they have a good shot at winning the whole thing.
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