The line on New England vs. San Diego stands at 14 after opening at 15. This line seems to reflect the oddsmakers (and probably moreso, the public) thinking of New England as the dominant team they were during the 1st half of the season, rather than the not-nearly-as-good team they've been ever since.
Once again, the power ratings (points-based) for New England's entire season, and the same power rating when splitting the Patriots into two halves (first eight games, next nine games including 1st playoff game):
rnk Team rec rating off def rnk Team rec rating off def
1. New England Patriots 17-0 19.88 37.22 17.33
2. Indianapolis Colts 13-4 11.10 28.10 17.00
3. Green Bay Packers 14-3 9.78 28.13 18.34
4. San Diego Chargers 13-5 9.28 25.96 16.67
New England's overall team is 10 points better than San Diego, and with home field a 14-15 point spread doesn't seem unreasonable. But when split into two season-halves:
1a New England Patriots 8-0 26.14 41.68 15.54
1b New England Patriots 2 9-0 14.38 33.28 18.90
2. Indianapolis Colts 13-4 10.70 27.97 17.27
3. Green Bay Packers 14-3 9.83 28.15 18.32
4. San Diego Chargers 13-5 9.55 26.00 16.45
New England's 1st half team is 17+ points better than San Diego, but the team they've been recently has had close calls with most of the teams they've played. They look more like one touchdown favorites to me. Indeed, here are the score projections these ratings yield for all three comparisons (overall team, 1st-half team, and 2nd-half team):
New England Patriots 33 (Entire season)
San Diego Chargers 21
New England Patriots 38 (1st half season)
San Diego Chargers 19
New England Patriots 2 29 (2nd half season)
San Diego Chargers 22
The Patriots have played fairly consistently during both halves, as well, and did not step their game back up for the Jacksonville playoff game. Here is a graph (courtesy of Google chart-maker) of their game-by-game power ratings for the season:
This suggests they will continue to play like they have in recent months, and that the 14-15 point spread is too favorable to the Patriots. Also it seems that the correct split for New England's season is after game 10, which would make their most recent seven-game average even lower; their five worst performances have come in their last seven games.
That said, I wouldn't bet against the Patriots myself. Vegas usually has a pretty good reason for setting the line the way they do, and a touchdown here or there can change things dramatically. I'm not arguing that the Chargers will beat the line, just that the line is set too high. There is a difference between the two statements..!
Comments