NFL probabilities - playoffs, conference champs, Super Bowl

A little NFL detour here, and a little late, since two of these games are over already and of course will affect the odds. But I wanted to publish the unadulterated odds for the final 12 teams before I update them this week for the final eight.

I use the pairwise-comparison method, which should be fairly accurate after 16 games each, yielding 256 game-to-game comparisons.

Clearly the odds are going to be a bit uninteresting because of Godzilla, aka New England, eating up the percentages. The NFL brackets are, of course, convoluted by the bracket-jumping ability of the wildcard teams, which makes it a real pain in the ass.

Wildcard games: AFC

Pittsburgh Steelers        48.8     San Diego Chargers         72.3
Jacksonville Jaguars       51.2     Tennessee Titans           27.7

Wildcard games: NFC

Tampa Bay Buccaneers       48.4     Seattle Seahawks           51.2
New York Giants            51.6     Washington Redskins        48.8

Team  odds to win:    wild card   1st round   conf. champ    Super Bowl
New England            100.0%       82.5%       61.0%          45.8%
Indianapolis           100.0%       61.6%       21.4%          12.7%
San Diego               72.3%       29.1%        9.0%           4.8%         
Pittsburgh              48.8%       10.0%        2.9%           1.2%
Jacksonville            51.2%       13.9%        5.0%           2.5%    
Tennessee               27.7%        2.9%        0.7%           0.2%

Dallas                 100.0%       67.4%       39.6%          14.5%
Green Bay              100.0%       68.1%       36.1%          12.5%
Seattle                 51.2%       16.8%        6.4%           1.4%
Tampa Bay               48.4%       14.0%        4.8%           1.0%
New York Giants         51.6%       17.1%        6.6%           1.6%
Washington              48.8%       16.6%        6.5%           1.8%

New England emerges with a not-quite-50% chance of winning it all, while the next best number is from Dallas at 14.5%, then the Colts and Packers are nearly tied for 4th most likely. After that it drops off to San Diego at under 5%, Jacksonville at 2 1/2, and the rest around 1% (except Tennessee, who is steered into facing New England if they win the wild card game).

A team's odds are better if they can hold off facing New England the longest, which is (one reason) why Tennessee fares so poorly and the Chargers do relatively well—if they win, they don't face New England right away. Although Indianapolis ranks #2 and beats Dallas head-to-head most of the time, Dallas' overall odds are higher because they have a better hope that someone can beat the Pats before the Super Bowl.

I will be glad when the wild card situation is over; working out the odds in a normal, stable bracket is much easier.