SportsRatings: College Football

2008 Pre-season Top 25: taking schedule into account

There are two basic philosophies (maybe three) used when making a pre-season top 25. The first philosophy is to simply rank the teams based on how good you think the are going into the new season. That's Philosophy A. A similar philosophy, which we could call Philosophy AA, is to rank the teams based on how good you think they will be at the end of the season. This might give extra weight to teams that have good, but young, talent. Philosophies A and AA aren't all that different—the team's schedule isn't taken into account for either.

The other way to rank teams is to rank them by how many games you think they'll win. This takes schedule into account; quality teams that have a difficult schedule don't make the top ten, and some questionable teams with cupcake schedules might make the top 25. As a corrollary to wins and losses, projected final poll placement might be used. If a team starts at #5, they'll likely finish higher than an unranked team that is seen to be just as strong, has the same schedule strength, and ends up with the same record.

For comparison's sake, here is the SportsRatings 2008 pre-season top 25—which does not take schedule into account—followed by a projected end-of-season top 25 if every game went as planned with no upsets.

SportsRatings 2008 pre-season top 25

#   Team            AP   USA
1.  Ohio State       2    3  
2.  Florida          5    5
3.  Oklahoma         4    4
4.  South Florida   19   21    
5.  Texas Tech      12   14   
6.  Missouri         6    7  
7.  West Virginia    8    8  
8.  Kansas          14   13
9.  Georgia          1    1   
10. Oregon          21   20
11. Clemson          9    9      
12. LSU              7    6  
13. Texas           11   10      
14. South Carolina  --   --   
15. Southern Cal     3    2 
16. Auburn          10   11  
17. Penn State      22   22
18. Arizona St      15   16  
19. Connecticut     --   --
20. Tennessee       18   18 
21. Cincinnati      --   -- 
22. Brigham Young   16   17
23. Alabama         24   --   
24. Utah            --   --   
25. Maryland        --   --  

Teams in AP and USA that didn't make it:
26. Pittsburgh      25   --
31. Wisconsin       13   12
33. Wake Forest     23   23
34. Michigan        --   24
36. Virginia Tech   17   15
38. Fresno State    --   25
43. Illinois        20   19

Now, starting with the pre-season AP poll and following the season through as projected by my pre-season rankings, here are the possible rankings just before the bowl games:

                          pre-season   schedule
#   Team            rec    AP   SR     strength
1.  Ohio State      12-0    2    1       43
2.  Oklahoma        13-0    4    3       16 (1)
3.  Florida         13-0    5    2       15 (2)
4.  West Virginia   12-0    8    7       25
5.  Clemson         13-0    9   11       52 (25)
6.  USC             11-1    3   15       10
7.  Utah            12-0   --   24       79
8.  Oregon          11-1   21   10       34
9.  Missouri        12-1    6    6       55 (15)
10. Penn State      11-1   22   17       48
11. South Florida   11-1   19    4       49
12. South Carolina  10-2   --   14       13
13. Georgia         10-2    1    9        2
14. Maryland        11-1   --   25       47
15. Boise State     11-1   --   39      109
16. Brigham Young   11-1   16   22       75
17. Wake Forest     10-2   23   33       63
18. Arizona         10-2   --   27       38
19. Kansas           9-3   14    8       18
20. Texas Tech      10-2   12    5       35
21. Tulsa           12-1   --   56      119 (107)
22. Ball State      12-1   --   57      117 (105)
23. Auburn          10-3   10   16       27 (3)
24. Fresno State    10-2   --   38       87
25. Michigan         9-3   --   34       30

Several things have happened in the chart above. First, an absolutely unrealistic number of teams have gone undefeated. That's because there are no upsets in the projection; everything works like clockwork. Which is ridiculous of course, but to make a projection based on the starting AP poll you have to make assumptions about who is going to win each game. The actual number of undefeated teams varies; normally before the bowls there are 1 or 2, though last year there were none (and only two teams with one loss), and in 2004 there were five.

The second thing to note is that Florida, despite being #2 in my system and going undefeated, ends up #3. This is the effect of starting position in the AP poll. Though Florida would have a chance of jumping Oklahoma in this scenario, West Virginia and Clemson will be out of luck if Ohio State and Oklahoma go undefeated. So while my #1 and #2 teams are Ohio State and Florida, it is more likely to be Ohio State and Oklahoma at the end, with the rest of the team's chances at being in the BCS final decreasing as you go down the list.

Schedule is everything when it comes to fighting your way into the poll. Boise State, Tulsa, and Ball State all have a good chance to end up in the top 25, despite very easy schedules. Or rather, because of very easy schedules. Tulsa and Ball State are the #56 and #57 team in my pre-season rankings, but have the 2nd and 4th easiest schedules in the country. Utah and BYU also have moderately easy schedules, while being good teams themselves, which is why one or the other could make it to a BCS bowl. Conversely, a team like Kansas, which is ranked even higher in my rankings (#8) than the AP (#14) will be lucky to finish in the top 25 with their schedule.

The 2nd numbers after some of the schedule strength ratings add the team's conference title game (as projected) into the strength rating. Teams from the SEC and Big Twelve face the prospect of an extra loss, and lower ranking, from these games. Any team that goes undefeated this year in the SEC or Big Twelve will be much more deserving than Ohio State (even with a win over USC) because of this extra game, that will make their schedules the toughest in the country.

2008 pre-season BCS conference projected standings

Here are my projections for the conference races in 2008. Before each team is the team's ranking in my pre-season 1-120 rankings.

ACC
Atlantic division
(11) Clemson	8-0
(25) Maryland	7-1
(33) Wake Forest	6-2
(28) Florida State	5-3
(47) Boston College	3-5
(91) N.C. State	0-8
Coastal division
(37) North Carolina	7-1
(36) Virginia Tech	4-4
(67) Georgia Tech	3-5
(64) Virginia	2-6
(73) Duke	2-6
(72) Miami	1-7

Clemson is the winner of the ACC, meeting surprising North Carolina in the conference championship game. The Tar Heel schedule helps them out—they avoid Clemson during the regular season, and have Virginia Tech at home.

Overall the Atlantic division is far stronger than the Coastal; four of the Atlantic's teams are better than the best Coastal teams.

Maryland is another surprise team. Wake Forest, though clearly the fourth best in the subdivision, gets FSU when the Seminoles are weakened by suspension, so they slip into 3rd place.

North Carolina State is the dog of the conference, but Miami is the shocking last place in the Coastal division. Duke is roughly Miami's equal this season, and gets them at home.

Big East
(7) West Virginia	7-0
(4) South Florida	6-1
(19) Connecticut	4-3
(21) Cincinnati	4-3
(26) Pittsburgh	3-4
(29) Rutgers	3-4
(69) Louisville	1-6
(105) Syracuse	0-7

No surprise here—West Virginia gets the BCS bid of the Big East. But they're actually rated 2nd in the conference. The Mountaineers host the USF Bulls in Morgantown in the last game of the season, and that's the difference: home field advantage.

That advantage comes in handy for the #3 and #5 teams as well. Connecticut takes third by virtue of beating Cincinnati in Hartford, and Pitt at home defeats Rutgers. Fading Louisville and stumbling Syracuse round out the smallest BCS conference.

Big Ten
(1) Ohio State	8-0
(17) Penn State	7-1
(34) Michigan	6-2
(42) Michigan State	5-3
(41) Wisconsin	4-4
(43) Illinois	4-4
(66) Indiana	3-5
(55) Iowa	3-5
(54) Purdue	3-5
(79) Minnesota	1-7
(71) Northwestern	0-8

Ohio State will once again rule the Big Ten, regardless of whether they beat USC. Penn State is a distant second, and Michigan a distant third. Most years, a team outside the top 25 wouldn't have a hope of finishing third in the conference.

Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Illinois are logjammed but a pecking order emerges as the Spartans win five games and Wisconsin beats the Illini in Madison. Another logjam for seventh place sees a true A beats B beats C beats A tie, but Indiana may have the best overall record, and the Hawkeyes beat the Boilers in Iowa City. Minnesota even manages an overtime home win over Northwestern to avoid the cellar.

Big Twelve
North division
(6) Missouri	8-0
(8) Kansas	6-2
(50) Nebraska	3-5
(40) Colorado	3-5
(48) Kansas State	2-6
(95) Iowa State	0-8
South division
(3) Oklahoma	8-0
(5) Texas Tech	6-2
(13) Texas	4-4
(49) Texas A&M	4-4
(35) Oklahoma State	3-5
(89) Baylor	1-7

 Oklahoma and Missouri both finish undefeated and face each other in the Big Twelve championship game in Kansas City. The Sooners have the slight edge to get the automatic BCS bowl bid, and in their case it will probably be the national championship game.

The South division is especially loaded this year, with Texas Tech in the top five but still losing twice in-conference. Texas is #13 nationally but only manages an even Big 12 record. Oklahoma State beats A&M, but the latter has a kinder schedule and finishes ahead anyway, while Baylor avoids the overall cellar by beating the Cyclones.

In the North, Kansas loses to both the division winners but beats everyone else, including Texas and Texas Tech at home.

Pac Ten
(15) Southern Cal	9-0
(10) Oregon	8-1
(27) Arizona	7-2
(18) Arizona State	6-3
(32) California	5-4
(51) Washington	4-5
(53) UCLA	3-6
(62) Stanford	2-7
(52) Oregon State	1-8
(63) Washington St.	0-9

The Pac Ten is full of surprises. First off, USC isn't the best team—that's Oregon, despite losing Dennis Dixon and many others. But the Trojans are just strong enough to win the showdown at home. The 50/50 game tilted to Southern Cal when Duck starter Nick Costa was lost for the season.

The rest of the Pac-10 follows in perfect descending wins records, with surprise Arizona in third, as they upset ASU in Tuscon. Arizona and Stanford are the only Pac-10 teams better than they were last season. But Washington improves their record. Oregon State is the hard-luck case of the year.

SEC
East division
(2) Florida	8-0
(14) South Carolina	7-1
(9) Georgia	6-2
(20) Tennessee	4-4
(30) Kentucky	3-5
(61) Vanderbilt	0-8
West division
(16) Auburn	7-1
(12) Louisiana State	4-4
(23) Alabama	4-4
(44) Mississippi State	3-5
(41) Arkansas	1-7
(60) Mississippi	1-7

Saving the best for last, the Southeastern Conference throws a few curves as well. AP #1 Georgia doesn't even win the East division—they place 3rd to Florida and South Carolina. And defending champ LSU doesn't win the West. Auburn—the fifth best team in the conference—takes on Florida for the automatic BCS bid, but the Gators prevail.

While Auburn has a favorable schedule, LSU faces most of the top teams on the road and finishes just 4-4. Alabama and Mississippi State are improved, but find it hard to get traction in this league. Without McFadden and Jones, Arkansas can only manage a win over Mississippi.

Which is better than Vanderbilt can do. The Commodores, along with Kentucky, are an improving program trapped in a deep conference. Tennessee, like LSU, finds that having a good team doesn't insure a winning SEC record.

2008 pre-season 120: Ohio State Buckeyes are #1, Florida Gators #2

SportsRatings is ranking all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August until the season begins. These rankings are meant to reflect how good the teams might be in 2008 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for each team, and two projected records are given: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and another cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty in the predictions. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. (Schedule listings adapted from James Howell's site)

This installment covers teams #1 and #2. To see the full list, click here.

1. Ohio State Buckeyes     (pre-season AP #2, USA/Coaches #3)

2007 Results:  Record:11-2  Bowl: Lost to LSU 38-24 (BCS championship) Poll finish: #5 AP #4 USA
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #9    Success: #9    Combined: #10
No one wants to put the Buckeyes where they belong: at #1 to begin the season. Everybody acknowledges they belong in the top three, as good as they were last year and with the talent they return, but the top spot is by and large denied them. AP has them #2, the coaches #3, and various publications pick another team to claim the top spot, be it Georgia, Florida, or USC. Part of the reason is no one wants the Buckeyes to be good again and play for the national championship. It's getting old. The other problem is that their last two championship game debacles have given them the rep of a team that can't win the big game. But this year they're good enough to win it all, and are really quite far ahead of the rest of the pack.
Offense (9 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #36   Adj. Rush Yards: #21  Adj. Pass Yards: #97
Last year's problem was lack of offense. The defense was of a championship caliber, but the offense was mediocre, with a strong rushing game but little passing game to speak of. Part of that was the fault of Todd Boeckman, who had several poor games and almost cost the Buckeyes a victory against Michigan State. In his defense, some pointed out that his stats approached Troy Smith's in the latter's Heisman year, which was a bit of a stretch, though his 14 interceptions clearly exceeded Smith's total. But overall Boeckman directed the team well, completing 64% of his attempts for 2,379 yards and 25 TDs. A year wiser, Boeckman will limit his mistakes and interceptions. He will also be spelled by the nation's #1 recruit, Terrell Pryor, who throws a curve at opponents scouting the Buckeyes. Starting receivers Brian Robiskie (11 TDs) and Brian Hartline (6) return as well as tight end Rory Nichol and a slew of other wide outs, so the passing game should improve. But the heart of the offense is Chris "Beanie" Wells, who ran for 1,609 yards his sophomore season, and was a breakaway threat every time he touched the ball. He was also hurt often, which makes his numbers all the more impressive. The offensive line returns four full-time starters, seniors Alex Boone, Steve Rehring, and Ben Persons and junior Jim Cordle. The offense returns almost all key players from last year and adds Pryor into the mix. Some have speculated that Pryor will be used like Tim Tebow was his freshman year with Chris Leak, but I don't think he'll see quite that much action. He'll get a lot of time during Ohio State's first two (exhibition) games, but after that he'll be a mop-up. I just don't think Jim Tressel will unleash him, considering that he reigned in Troy Smith, turning him from a dual-threat running quarterback to a mobile but standard passer. Wells' legs will drive the offense, and Boeckman will have somewhat better stats and be trusted to keep things running on an even keel, with Pryor making late appearances to appease the fans once the outcome is not in doubt.
Defense (9 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #1     Adj. Rush Def: #2      Adj. Pass Def: #1
The defense is the only reason last year's Buckeye squad overachieved and made it to the BCS championship. The team was young and the offense mediocre, but so was the schedule, and defense alone could win games. Both the rushing and passing defense were stellar, with few breakdowns, and the scoring defense the best in the nation—7 teams were held to single digits. The rushing defense, corrected for opposition, was 2nd only to Oregon State's. The front four loses Vernon Gholston, perhaps the team's best player, who had 14 sacks last year; if he had returned, it would have been hard for any pundit not to put the Bucks on top, but now he's the convenient excuse. His absence hurts the pass rush most, and between Doug Worthington, Cameron Heyward, Nader Abdallah, Todd Denlinger, and Lawrence Wilson (who started at the beginning of '07 and promptly broke his leg) the front four will stop the run nearly as effectively as last year (Worthington is facing suspension for a DUI, but given the actions against other players in the off-season, he'll miss the first two games at most. Update: he won't miss any games at all). And with All-American and #1 tackler James Laurinaitis back at linebacker along with #2 tackler Marcus Freeman, you can make a case that they'll be just as good. To make up for the loss of Larry Grant, all of last year's immediate backup linebackers return (on the defense as a whole, upwards of 90% of the 2nd and 3rd string is back). The secondary returns in full a group that shut down most teams last season: Corners Donald Washington (suspended the first two games) and Malcolm Jenkins (4 int.) and safeties Kurt Coleman and Anderson Russell. How can they improve from #1? They could intercept more passes for one thing, as OSU had a negative turnover margin last season. And as noted, without Gholston the pass rush will be diminished, so opposing quarterbacks may have more time this year. Still, there's no reason they can't repeat as yardage rank champions.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Kicker Ryan Pretorius is back; he hit 21 of 25 attempts last season including 6 of 7 from 40+. Punter A.J. Trepasso wasn't quite as great, but had a decent 41.5 average and 36.7 net. 
Recruiting: Both Michigan and Ohio State were having great luck recruiting for 2008, the Wolverines clearly in the top five and the Buckeyes just inside the top ten. But then Terrell Pryor, the #1 QB and #1 overall in the class, decommitted from Michigan. Weeks later he committed to Ohio State. That one move dropped Michigan to #6, and propped Ohio State up to #5. They've since switched places, as a couple of Buckeye recruits didn't come through, but the damage was done—it was a major moral victory for Ohio State. Pryor, 6' 6", has passed and rushed for more than 4,000 yards each in his high school career in Pennsylvania. Fans are understandably drooling over the prospect of the next four years, but this season may be a disappointment in that regard. Tressel and his sweater-vest aren't likely to turn much of the offense over to a freshman when there's a proven senior at the helm, running a safe, conservative system. Already the depth chart just released puts Pryor at third string, which may not hold for long but is still an indication of what the coach is thinking. As I've said before, Pryor made a big mistake in dumping the Wolverines, where he would have started immediately under a coach who runs an offense perfect for him. But although I don't see Pryor given that much chance to shine this year, the next three will be intriguing, to see whether Tressel changes Pryor's style or vice versa.
2008 Season Outlook: Last season wasn't supposed to be a national championship run, but in the end the Buckeyes came as close as they did in 2006. The wins over Youngstown and Akron revealed one thing: the defense was damn good, giving up just 6 points in the two games. Wins over Washington (who scored 14 points), Minnesota (7), Purdue (7), and Kent State (3) said the same thing. The Michigan State game almost demonstrated how late mistakes can blow a game you've dominated throughout, but the Buckeyes won, 24-17. They took out Penn State and Wisconsin before falling to Illinois at home, in a controversial loss where the defense inexplicable gave up 100 more rushing yards than they had before due to being unable to contain Juice Williams, who passed for 4 TDs. Next week they went into Michigan and the defense took care of business, holding the Wolves to 3 points and less than 100 yards of offense. The Buckeyes found themselves in the national championship game for the second straight year, this time as underdogs however. They did better, and led for a while, but LSU was too much for them. The offense couldn't keep up, and it hurt the defense, which had another subpar performance. It wasn't really fair, though, as LSU was meant to be there, and OSU was supposed to wait until 2008.

Ohio State 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Youngstown State	99%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	Ohio	100%	W
9/13	Sat	@	Southern California	66%	W
9/20	Sat	vs.	Troy	85%	W
9/27	Sat	vs.	*Minnesota	96%	W
10/4	Sat	@	*Wisconsin	72%	W
10/11	Sat	vs.	*Purdue	88%	W
10/18	Sat	@	*Michigan State	76%	W
10/25	Sat	vs.	*Penn State	76%	W
11/8	Sat	@	*Northwestern	86%	W
11/15	Sat	@	*Illinois	76%	W
11/22	Sat	vs.	*Michigan	81%	W
Favored: 12-0  Projected: 10-2

Ohio State has the best team in the country, and three virtual byes on the schedule, so it's easy to envision an undefeated season. The obvious stumbling block is the road game in Pasedena against the Trojans. My system ranks USC a lot lower than most people do, and OSU a bit higher, so the game comes out clearly in the Buckeyes' favor. In reality, it will be an interesting matchup, particularly USC's offense vs. the Buckeye defense. This is the Rose Bowl that would have happened last year if every team under the sun hadn't lost in the last two weeks.

If the Buckeyes get past the third game, it's hard to see them losing. Wisconsin, Michigan State, Penn State, Illinois, and Michigan will all take their shots. The cumulative odds stack up to a couple of losses, but I see it this way: beat USC and go 12-0, and go to the national championship game. Or lose to USC and go 11-1, and under no circumstances go to the national championship game. It's that simple. Fans (and voters) won't tolerate another knife-through-butter Buckeye team mowing down the Big Ten and folding in the title game. But if they beat USC they'll discard all that baggage and acquire a new reputation. And this time, they should win it all. Three's a charm for the Buckeyes? We'll find out.

2. Florida Gators      (pre-season AP #5, USA/Coaches #5)

2007 Results:  Record:9-4  Bowl: Lost to Michigan 41-35 (Capitol One)  Poll finish: #13 AP  #16 USA
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #6     Success: #14     Combined: #7
Florida had the opposite profile of Ohio State in '07—the offense was #1 while the defense was marginal. But there will be improvement on that side of the ball. The Gators only lost close games to good teams last season, and have a load of talent back. If any team can run through the SEC schedule this year, it's Florida.
Offense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #1    Adj. Rush Yards: #17    Adj. Pass Yards: #24
Florida had the top scoring offense while their yardage profiles were relatively pedestrian, but they were in the top ten in fewest turnovers, #21 in red zone percentage, and had one of the country's best return men in Brandon James, all of which adds up to bridge the gap. One big reason for the low turnover total was of course Tim Tebow, who, while passing for 32 TDs and rushing for 23 more, threw just 6 interceptions and only lost just one fumble (officially he had none but I count the Georgia game snap he bobbled). That's 6 or 7 turnovers for 55 touchdowns. He was #2 in passing efficiency, threw for 3,286 yards, and lead the team in rushing with 895 yards; if anyone can win the Heisman twice in a row anymore it will be him. His stats will probably sink a bit in 2008, because first of all, how can he duplicate them? And also because coach Urban Meyer wants to protect him a bit more by having other alternatives in the ground game. Percy Harvin is the other main cog on offense, rushing for and catching over 800 yards each (10 TDs total), and some believe he may get this year's Heisman a la Bush following Leinart (which I doubt, as Tebow will still have more impressive stats than Harvin). As for actual running backs, as opposed to QBs and WRs running the ball, Kestahn Moore was tops with 580 yards and 6 TDs last season, but either Chris Rainey (another fast receiver type) or USC transfer Emmanuel Moody might get the nod. The Gators lose receiver Andre Caldwell (7 TDs) and tight end Cornelius Ingram (7 TDs, likely out '08 with knee injury), but have Louis Murphy (5 TDs) back along with Harvin. The offensive line is in good shape, with three starters—seniors Jim Tartt and Jason Watkins, and soph Maurkice Pouncey—back, and '06 starter Phil Trautwein returning from medical redshirt. Just Tebow plus a solid offensive line makes for a great offense; having Harvin and several other good backs and receivers makes this once again probably the best in the country.
Defense (8 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #46      Adj. Rush Def: #11     Adj. Pass Def: #102
The Gators had a great rushing defense in 2007, holding all but three opponents to double-digit yardage, but lose two starters off the defensive line including Derrick Harvey, who had 17 tackles-for-loss. Jermaine Cunningham (6.5 sacks) is back, and Javier Estopinan returns as well but might be a reserve behind sophomore Justin Trattou. Mike Pouncey started some games but moved to the offensive line, and projected starting tackle Torrey Davis missed most of fall camp with a variety of issues. Thus the rushing defense might slip somewhat in '08, unless the excellent linebacking corps picks up the slack; starters Brandon Spikes (#1 tackler last year), Dustin Doe (#2), and A.J. Jones all return. The problem last season was pass defense. Several freshmen played at the position and there was little consistency in the lineup. This year they lose Tony Joiner but return corner Joe Haden and safety Major Wright who should both be much improved as they were true freshmen last year. The other corner spot has three players with starting experience back: original '07 starter Markihe Anderson, who was injured early in the season; Wondy Pierre-Louis, who saw the most action; and soph Jacques Rickerson, who may get the start this year. At the strong safety spot, Dorian Munroe had the nod until he became, along with backup John Curtis, one of several Gators to suffer ACL tears in camp. Though the key players add a big year of experience and should improve on last year's faulty coverage, injuries and other issues (e.g. Jamar Hornsby) have reduced the secondary's depth. But overall the Gators return 14 of last year's top 18 tacklers and should be much better.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Punter Chas Henry averaged a middling 39.3 yards per punt, but hangtime is often underrated; his net average was a fantastic 38.7, as over half his punts resulted in fair catches. The kicking spot is open as Joey Ijjas (72 of 73 PATs) leaves; freshman Caleb Sturgis will likely take over.
Recruiting: Florida's tradition of great recruiting continues under Urban Meyer. The 2008 class was a top ten class, while the 2007 class was a clear #1. The secondary is a good place to see both classes in action, with Haden and Wright, who started as true freshmen, and Will Hill, an '08 signee who may start due to the Munroe injury.   
2008 Season Outlook: A championship year is a hard act to follow, but Florida's 2007 season was actually more interesting with Tim Tebow at the helm. And three games in, after dominating Tennessee 59-20, it looked like a Florida repeat was a distinct possibility. The following game against Mississippi showed how dependent on Tebow they had become, as he had to personally clinch the 30-24 win. The losses to Auburn and LSU showed that even he couldn't carry the team past good competition—but he came damn close. Tebow won the shootout with Kentucky's Andre Woodson, but they fell next week against Georgia when he was slowed by injury. The Gators closed on such an offensive tear—scoring 49, 51, 59, and 45—that people expected the same outcome against Michigan in the Capitol One bowl. Instead, Michigan's seniors, finally healthy, dished out the 41 points and won. Again Tebow couldn't do it all, but he did enough to become the first sophomore to win the Heisman, and the first player to rush and pass for 20 TDs.

Florida 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Hawaii	87%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	Miami (Florida)	91%	W
9/20	Sat	@	*Tennessee	66%	W
9/27	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi	85%	W
10/4	Sat	@	*Arkansas	72%	W
10/11	Sat	vs.	*Louisiana State	69%	W
10/25	Sat	vs.	*Kentucky	77%	W
11/1	Sat	N	*Georgia	61%	W
11/8	Sat	@	*Vanderbilt	79%	W
11/15	Sat	vs.	*South Carolina	69%	W
11/22	Sat	vs.	Citadel	98%	W
11/29	Sat	@	Florida State	69%	W
Favored: 12-0  Projected: 9-3

Florida has a chance of sweeping the SEC, always a difficult proposition. The game vs. Georgia, played in Jacksonville, FL, is supposed to be one of the "neutral site" games like the Red River Shootout. That will be Florida's toughest game, with the contest at Tennessee a close second. The Gators can win both of them. Other tough games included LSU and South Carolina at home, and FSU on the road, and across the entire schedule there might be three losses if they're unlucky. They also have some easy games: home against Hawaii and Miami are as close to gimmes as you can have for opponents recently in BCS bowls, and the Gators take on The Citadel later in the year. The SEC is unpredictable and there's always the SEC championship opponent to consider, which would probably be Auburn, in Atlanta. Still, Florida looks as good as Oklahoma/Missouri or USF/West Virginia in their chances to reach the BCS national championship game. I rate them as better than all those teams, but with a tougher schedule. If they make it they'll have somewhat of a home field advantage as the game is played in Miami. Will Florida and Ohio State, the #1 offense and #1 defense, meet in a rematch of the 2006 game? It's one of many possibilities, but from the hazy pre-season vantage point it might be the most likely scenario.

2008 preview 120: #3 Oklahoma Sooners, #4 South Florida Bulls

SportsRatings is ranking all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August until the season begins. These rankings are meant to reflect how good the teams might be in 2008 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for each team, and two projected records are given: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and another cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty in the predictions. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. (Schedule listings adapted from James Howell's site)

This installment covers teams #3 and #4. To see the full list, click here.

3. Oklahoma Sooners     (pre-season AP #4, USA/Coaches #4)

2007 Results:  Record:11-3  Bowl: L to West Virginia 48-28 (Fiesta Bowl)  Poll finish: #8 AP #8 USA
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #2    Success: #6    Combined: #4
Sam Bradford is all of a sophomore now and wants to take the Sooners all the way to the national championship game—then break the Sooners' post-season losing streak.
Offense (8 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #3   Adj. Rush Yards: #30  Adj. Pass Yards: #38
Last year at this time, Oklahoma's quarterback situation was a big question mark. But then-redshirt freshman Sam Bradford answered all the questions and more, having an incredible year from the very first game and finishing with over 3,000 yards at an almost 70% completion rate with 36 TDs and just 8 interceptions. He ended the season with the #1 QB rating. Now back for his sophomore year, Bradford doesn't have starters Malcolm Kelly (9 TDs) or Joe Jon Finley (4) to throw to anymore, but Juaquin Iglesias (5 TDs), Manuel Johnson (4) and tight end Jermaine Gresham (11) return. The running game loses #1 back Allen Patrick, who had just over 1,000 yards and 8 TDs but DeMarco Murray, also a redshirt freshman, had 764 yards and 13 TDs himself and Chris Brown added 611 and 9 TDs. The offensive line is the lynchpin of this offense, and will ensure its success. All five starters return, all seniors: center Jon Cooper, guards Brandon Walker and Duke Robinson, and tackle Phil Loadholt started the entire year, while Branndon Braxton and Trent Williams started half-time in '06 and '07. This may be the best offensive line in college football. The only questions that remain about this offense are: can it top last year's production? and will the majority of yardage and scoring be achieved via ground or through the air? Despite people associating Oklahoma with Bradford, the offense was actually very balanced in '07. It will be hard for Bradford to match his numbers from last year, especially without Kelly, who took pressure off other receivers. One key receiver can make a quarterback look good (or a good one look even better) and some kind of sophomore slump is almost inevitable for Bradford, if only because he's set such a high bar. But I think the running game can improve with the two solid backs and because defenses, particularly in the Big Twelve, are concentrating on defending the pass. The net effect will be an offense that is just as good as last year's. To remain in the top 5 in scoring offense they need to continue to limit turnovers and score in the red zone, both things they were excellent at in 2007, allowing them to turn middling yardage production into stellar point totals.
Defense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #8   Adj. Rush Def: #19    Adj. Pass Def: #19
The stingy defense from last year has some holes, but not in the front four, where three starters return. End Auston English had 9.5 sacks last year, and has gone through ankle, shoulder, and appendix issues in the last 10 months, but he's scheduled to start the first game. Junior DeMarcus Granger and soph Gerald McCoy are the tackles, and five other players have starting experience on the line. At linebacker, however, they lose the top two tacklers from last season's defense, Curtis Lofton and Lewis Baker. Ryan Reynolds returns, but he is being pushed by JUCO Mike Balogun; presumably they'll find a way that both can be on the field for this unit. The secondary is the big concern, with three full-time starters gone including D.J. Wolfe and Reggie Smith. Nic Harris is back, and is the team's leading returning tackler. And Lendy Holmes, who started at corner in '06 and in the Sooner nickel formation last year, gives them a solid base to work from. But one would logically expect the pass defense to suffer while the rush defense improves; while the net might not suffer, this isn't the best year to have a questionable secondary in the Big Twelve. All in all, the Sooner lose their top four tacklers from last year, but six of the next seven are back.
Kicking Game (0.5 RS): Two punters shared the duties last year, Michael Cohen (42.1 ave) was eventually replaced by Mike Knall (43.7), who returns. To replace kicker Garrett Hartley, they look to redshirt freshman Jimmy Stevens.
Recruiting: The 2007 class was just inside the top 25, while the '08 class ranked in the top 10. This year Bob Stoops did particularly well at linebacker—with the aforementioned Balogun and J.R. Bryant—as well as receiver, with Jameel Owen, Dejuan Miller, and of course the infamous Joshua Jarboe, whose YouTube rap video earned him an unplanned transfer to Troy.
2008 Season Outlook: In retrospect, Oklahoma's first four games in 2007 didn't prepare them well for the Big Twelve season. North Texas and Utah State were among I-A's worst, and Miami finished the season a mediocre team. Only one game was on the road. So when the Sooners met Colorado, the shocking 27-24 loss perhaps shouldn't have been such a big surprise. The team never really dominated again like it did in those early games, but they beat Texas and then, more impressively, Missouri, to go to 6-1. Another road struggle—against Iowa State, of all teams—was followed by two home wins. At 9-1 talk of a national title surfaced again, only to be dashed by Texas Tech (another road game) in which Sam Bradford suffered a concussion and left early. The Sooners rebounded again to win the Big Twelve title, handing Missouri its second loss, 38-17. They went into the Fiesta Bowl as favorites but were spanked by Patrick White and West Virginia, 48-28. Though at moments the best team in the country,  they didn't play well on the road.

Oklahoma 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Tenn.-Chattanooga	100%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	Cincinnati	68%	W
9/13	Sat	@	Washington	70%	W
9/27	Sat	vs.	Texas Christian	76%	W
10/4	Sat	@	*Baylor	83%	W
10/11	Sat	N	*Texas	63%	W
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Kansas	56%	W
10/25	Sat	@	*Kansas State	69%	W
11/1	Sat	vs.	*Nebraska	76%	W
11/8	Sat	@	*Texas A&M	68%	W
11/22	Sat	vs.	*Texas Tech	54%	W
11/29	Sat	@	*Oklahoma State	65%	W
Favored: 12-0  Projected: 8-4

This year's schedule is friendly in two ways: Kansas and Texas Tech are at home. This gives Oklahoma a real chance of going undefeated this year. Though a neutral field Big Twelve title game with Missouri would be close, they can win that, too, and then be in the national championship game. There are other possible losses, as always (Texas, Cincinnati), but the 8-4 cumulative projection is pretty much a worst-case figure. I expect the Sooners to be at least 10-2, probably 11-1, and perhaps undefeated; Missouri has the same expectation this year, so the most likely scenario is the two teams meeting in Kansas City for the right to play for the national title. The Sooner have to get past Graham Harrell and Texas Tech to do so, and with the decimated secondary that could be a challenge; but the offense is up to the task, and everything is in place for a possible title run.

4. South Florida Bulls      (pre-season AP #19, USA/Coaches #21)

2007 Results:  Record:9-4  Bowl: Lost to Oregon 56-21 (Sun Bowl)  Poll finish: #35 AP  #35 USA
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #10     Success: #15     Combined: #11
The Bulls might surprise people this year, as they're getting just marginal recognition for the amount of talent that returns on both sides of the ball.
Offense (10 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #8    Adj. Rush Yards: #22    Adj. Pass Yards: #54
Even if you don't hear as much about him, Matt Grothe is another one of those quarterbacks—like Tebow, White, and even LeFevour—that leads his team in rushing (872 net yards, 10 TDs) while passing well, too (2,670 yards, 14 TDs). If he reduces his interceptions (14) a bit and USF has a big run, you'll hear his name mentioned for the Heisman, though, because the Bulls are loaded with returning talent: Four starters on the offensive line, seniors Ryan Schmidt, Marc Dile, and Jake Griffin and sophomore Zach Hermann; five of the six top ground gainers including Mike Ford (12 TDs) and Benjamin Williams (6); and the top four receivers, consisting of Carlton Mitchell, Jessie Hester, and Taurus Johnson (4 TDs apiece) and starting tight end Cedric Hill. It's hard to find a weakness. The open right tackle spot will be filled by Matt Huners, who started in 2006. The receiving corps I listed doesn't even include returning starter Marcus Edwards, or A.J. Love, last year's #10 receiver who is now listed as a fill-in starter. Beyond the starting lineup, enough lettermen return to fill the 2nd string and most of the 3rd. In every aspect, the Bulls ought to be as good or better than the top ten offense they had in 2007, which is a scary thought.
Defense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #26      Adj. Rush Def: #32     Adj. Pass Def: #42
The 'man' on defense is George Selvie, who is every bit as important to this defense as Glenn Dorsey was to LSU's. A candidate for defensive player of the year, Selvie had an amazing 31.5 tackles for loss last year, including 14.5 sacks. He returns to the front four with Aaron Harris and Jarriet Blue, who had 9.5 and 6 tackles-for-loss respectively. In other words, together they have half of Selvie's total, and their numbers are considered good! The Bulls are just as strong at linebacker: #1 tackler Tyrone McKenzie returns, as does Brouce Mompremier, and though they lose star Ben Moffitt they have an abundance of talent at the position. The secondary, which gave up moderate yardage but ended drives with interceptions, loses the two best, Trae Williams and Mike Jenkins (9 int. between them). But the safety position is solid with Nate Allen (4 int.) and Carlton Williams returning, and '06 starter Danny Verpaele back as well. The replacement corners are experienced and should do well, but teams will probably try to pass against the Bulls to test them. In all, five of the top six tacklers from 2007 return.
Kicking Game ('2' RS): If Grothe is the key to the offense and Selvie to the D, then Delbert Alvarado is the key to the kicking game, handling both punts and placekicking. As a punter he's solid, averaging 41.6 yards per kick, but he's had trouble as a kicker though he improved markedly in the second half of the season. He made 19 of 29 field goals and 52 of 53 PATs.
Recruiting: Despite all the press implying that the Bulls are stealing every good player from the grasp of the Floridas, Miamis, and FSUs, USF's recruiting classes normally are just inside the top half in the nation. The majority of their recruits are still the castoffs and unwanteds of the bigger powers, though lately they are scoring many bigger names. This year, with so many players returning on both offense and defense, there are no true freshmen starting or on the 2nd string going into 2008. True frosh QB B.J. Daniels will see action this year according to head coach George Levitt.
2008 Season Outlook: Every college football fan heard about South Florida last year—the team that ridiculously was ranked #2, before subsequently crashing out of sight and showing how stupid the pollster were. The truth was that the Bulls deserved that #2 ranking at the time. At 6-0, they had wins over Auburn and West Virginia, which meant there was more quality on their résumé than anyone else had at the time. They'd also beaten Florida Atlantic and UCF, both bowl-bound squads. In fact, all four of those teams won their bowl games, and three of the four won their conferences in 2007.

The three losses that followed their 6-0 start were depressing, but were hardly bad games. USF lost at Rutgers by a field goal, at Connecticut by a touchdown, and to Cincinnati by 5 points. All good teams, all close games, but to the majority of the nation's football fans, those opponents were unestablished programs, so at 6-3 USF fell back under the radar. They finished 9-3 with three strong performances, but drew crippled Oregon for the Sun Bowl. Perhaps disappointed at what could have been, feeling slighted in terms of bowl game prestige, and/or a bit overconfident that Oregon was a shell of its former self, the Bulls came out like lambs and got slaughtered, 56-21. Clearly that game has left a bad taste in the players' mouths, and they want another chance to have the season they believe they should have had last year.

USF 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Tennessee-Martin	100%	W
9/5	Fri	@	Central Florida	73%	W
9/13	Sat	vs.	Kansas	56%	W
9/20	Sat	@	Florida International	96%	W
9/27	Sat	@	North Carolina St.	83%	W
10/2	Thu	vs.	*Pittsburgh	69%	W
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Syracuse	95%	W
10/25	Sat	@	*Louisville	76%	W
10/30	Thu	@	*Cincinnati	61%	W
11/15	Sat	vs.	*Rutgers	70%	W
11/22	Sat	vs.	*Connecticut	67%	W
12/6	Sat	@	*West Virginia	49%	L
Favored: 11-1  Projected: 9-3

USF in 2008 plays three of the weakest teams and two of the toughest. Between Tennessee-Martin, FIU, and Syracuse, they essentially have six bye weeks on the schedule. An early game against Kansas will be tough, but get past it and the final game—West Virginia in Morgantown—could be for the Big East title and possibly more. The Big East has enough tough teams this year—Pitt, Cincinnati, UConn—that USF could lose three games this year, but they might go undefeated and be in the national championship game. And even if they lost that one, they'd still probably be ranked #2 in the nation—this time at the end of the season.

2008 Pre-season 120: #5 Texas Tech Red Raiders, #6 Missouri Tigers

SportsRatings is ranking all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August until the season begins. These rankings are meant to reflect how good the teams might be in 2008 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for each team, and two projected records are given: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and another cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty in the predictions. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. (Schedule listings adapted from James Howell's site)

This installment covers teams #5 and #6. To see the full list, click here.

5. Texas Tech Red Raiders     (pre-season AP #12, USA/Coaches #14)

2007 Results:   Record: 9-4   Bowl: Beat Virginia 31-28 (Gator Bowl)  Poll finish: #22 AP #23 USA
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #17    Success: #25    Combined: #17
Can an all-passing offense take a team to the national championship? This crew might be the perfect test. The most pass-happy team in the pass-happy Big Twelve, the Red Raiders want to show that running the ball is overrated.
Offense (10 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #10   Adj. Rush Yards: #118  Adj. Pass Yards: #1
Texas Tech runs the spread option the old-fashioned way, without the 'option' part. The quarterback is a quarterback; he throws, he doesn't run downfield. It's not Florida or West Virginia 2007, but rather Houston circa 1990 or Hawaii 2006. And the QB puts up numbers just as gaudy. Except this year, they have one of the best quarterbacks that has run the system, some of the best receivers, and perhaps as a team, the best overall personnel that has attempted this type of run-and-shoot offense. Graham Harrell, as quarterback, is the focal point. His numbers in 2008 should be insane, since he's among the minority who can run this style of offense with an excellent completion rate (72% last year) and as few interceptions (14) compared to the number of touchdowns produced (48) and yardage (5,705) gained. Then there's Michael Crabtree. With that many yards thrown around some receivers have to be getting rich, but Crabtree is Bill Gates by any standard, hauling in 134 catches for 1,962 yards and a whopping 22 TDs. The only significant loss on the offense is #2 receiver Danny Amendola who had 109 catches, 1,245 yards, and 6 TDs, but the fact that he went undrafted suggests even he can be easily replaced; returning starters Eric Morris (9 TDs) and Edward Britton (4) will pick up the slack along with a slew of others. But Crabtree is the real deal; his ability to run after the catch is reflected in his TD total, and though one expects his stats to slip as he draws every team's best defender, he is an overwhelming favorite to repeat as the country's #1 receiver unless injured. The offensive line may be the best, too, to protect a QB under this scheme. All five starters return, anchored (literally) by 375 lb. right guard Brandon Carter, with Louis Vasquez at left guard, Marlon Wynn and Rylan Reed at tackle, and Shawn Byrnes at center. A number of solid backups like ex-starter Jake Johnson give the line depth, so QB protection should be even better this year. What else? Oh yeah, a bunch of guys are vying for the starting running back job, but who cares? Kobey Lewis, #3 rusher last year, was kicked off the team, but it doesn't matter.
Defense (8 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #43   Adj. Rush Def: #77    Adj. Pass Def: #2
The Tech defense is an interesting study. Their ability to defend the pass, and not the run, is reflected in the offense's capability to deliver one and not the other. I'm assuming that in drills the offense does its thing (pass) which gives the defense incredible experience in that aspect, and no challenge in the running department. But this year could be different, with the front four back intact. They're young, with two juniors and sophomore Colby Whitlock, but good, particularly Brandon Williams. And deep, like the offensive line, with three star JUCOs pushing the starters (though one of them, McKinner Dixon, was recently declared ineligible). Brian Duncan and Marlon Williams, the team's #2 tackler, return at linebacker. Last year Tech was 12th in passing yardage defense, which converts to #2 when corrected for the teams they faced. They lose #1 tackler Joe Garcia, but Jamar Wall (5 int.) and Darcel McBath (3) return. In all 9 of their 10 interceptions are accounted for by returning players, as the defense is exceptionally deep with returning reserves and have 16 of their top 20 tacklers back.
Kicking Game (1 RS): The Red Raiders return a good punter in Jonathan LaCour, 42.6 average. But they have to replace kicker Alex Trlica, who made all 67 PATs last year. Donny Corona, a true freshman, is battling senior Cory Fowler for the spot.
Recruiting: Tech's recruiting under Mike Leach is strictly average, pretty much in the middle of the pack nationwide. But Leach has the advantage, at least on the offensive side, of choosing players particularly for his system, and there are an abundance of receivers and quarterbacks who want to play this style. On defense he scored the three JUCOs mentioned for the line—Broderick Marshall, Brandon Sesay, and former Tech player McKinner Dixon, who didn't re-qualify.
2008 Season Outlook: Last year, from this vantage point, looks like a dress rehearsal considering this season's potential. Look at what worked, and look at what went wrong and try to correct it. Not much went wrong in the first seven games, as the Raiders faced mostly weak competition. They lost a shootout to Oklahoma State, which shows one weakness of the pass-a-minute philosophy: the defense gets tired out, and if they're facing a strong passing offense, too, it becomes a question of who can score last. They rebounded to beat Texas A&M solidly a few weeks later, 35-7 to go 6-1, and looked like a contender. But then they met Missouri and were dominated, 41-10, then wilted at home to Colorado. Another shootout loss to Texas (59-43) preceded their biggest win, a 34-27 victory over Oklahoma, where Sam Bradford was hurt early; Tech build a big lead and held on to win. In the Gator Bowl, it was Virginia with the lead most of the game, but the Raiders rallied to a 31-28 win.

Texas Tech 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Eastern Washington	89%	W
9/6	Sat	@	Nevada	80%	W
9/13	Sat	vs.	Southern Methodist	98%	W
9/20	Sat	vs.	Massachusetts	83%	W
10/4	Sat	@	*Kansas State	68%	W
10/11	Sat	vs.	*Nebraska	76%	W
10/18	Sat	@	*Texas A&M	68%	W
10/25	Sat	@	*Kansas	49%	L
11/1	Sat	vs.	*Texas	63%	W
11/8	Sat	vs.	*Oklahoma State	72%	W
11/22	Sat	@	*Oklahoma	46%	L
11/29	Sat	vs.	*Baylor	90%	W
Favored: 10-2  Projected: 9-3

2008 will be a good year for the Raiders. As they have for years, they'll beat up on the lowly teams, and there are plenty of them: two Division I-AA opponents, plus SMU. They're good enough to beat the mid-level Big Twelve opponents, and even Texas. But road trips to Kansas, and particularly, Oklahoma, will sink them. In the past, 'spread', 'wide open', 'no-huddle' or 'run-and-shoot' teams have preyed upon low-to-middle level opponents until a defensive coordinator on a team with decent talent tried to stack the line and overwhelm the QB. Miami in 1985 had become this type of team, relying heavily on passing, when Tennessee destroyed them in the Sugar Bowl with blitzes. Houston in 1989 was unstoppable, except the two games in which they were stopped. And this has been Texas Tech's experience over the last decade under Mike Leach. This year they have a chance to make their gameplan work like it never has, and for the most part they'll succeed, I believe having their best year yet. But teams that live and die by the pass alone eventually die by it. There will be a defense that can shut them down, hard, and even if they get past Oklahoma, and to the Big Twelve title game, and to the BCS championship game, they'll be beat. I don't think it will get that far because Oklahoma is one of the year's best teams, and Tech's other problem is stopping the run. When you can't run the ball, and can't stop the other team from running the ball, you have a fundamental problem, no matter how well your team passes. Tech, with their strong offensive line, will take this game plan as far as it can go, but they can't quite take it all the way.

6. Missouri Tigers      (pre-season AP #6, USA/Coaches #7)

2007 Results:  Record:12-2  Bowl: beat Arkansas 38-7 (Cotton Bowl)  Poll finish: #4 AP  #5 USA
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #3     Success: #2     Combined: #3
The Tigers are back, and better than last year. But so are a lot of the teams in the Big Twelve. Can they win the conference title this year with Chase Daniel?
Offense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #2    Adj. Rush Yards: #32    Adj. Pass Yards: #9
Chase Daniel will be one of the top Heisman hopefuls this year. Last season's stats—68% for 4,305 yards, 33 TDs vs. 11 INTs, plus 4 rushing TDs—put him 4th in the voting after barely generating a whisper before the season. His #1 target, Jeremy Maclin (1,055 yards, 9 TDs), has also been mentioned as a hopeful this year, as he returns kicks (3 for TDs) as well, a necessary requirement for a receiver who wants the prize. Macklin also had 4 rushing TDs as the Tigers' 2nd leading rusher last year; #1 Tony Temple (over 1,000 yards, 12 TDs) moved on, and Missouri has some good options to replace him, with Derrick Washington impressing the most in camp. They lose their #2 and #3 receivers, but return starter Tommy Saunders, and have dangerous Chase Coffman (7 TDs) who takes over at tight end for Martin Rucker. The final receiver slot is occupied by Danario Alexander, who is out for the first 3 or 4 games after ACL surgery. The offensive line, which protected Daniel well last year, loses two multi-year starters, Adam Spieker and Tyler Luellen. How their replacements do alongside the three solid returnees will determine how much leeway Daniel has in running the super-charged offense.
Defense (9 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #11      Adj. Rush Def: #17     Adj. Pass Def: #67
The defense looks very strong this year. The front four returns three starters, tackle Ziggy Hood (5 sacks) and ends Stryker Sulak (6 sacks) and Tommy Chavis (4.5). Though both ends are among the Big 12's best, there is a lack of depth on the line since Jason Townson and Jaysen Corbett left the team. But all three starters return at linebacker: #1 tackler Sean Weatherspoon, #3 Brock Christopher, and Van Alexander, who has had a "miraculous" recovery from April ACL surgery. Backup Andrew Gachkar also had surgery in April and is practicing already. The secondary gave up a lot of yards (96th in the nation by raw numbers) but played pass-heavy opponents, meaning they really ranked #67. And in terms of real pass defense that doesn't factor in interceptions and red zone defense, both of which Missouri excelled at, allowing them to achieve their near-top-10 scoring defense ranking. William Moore, who had 8 of Mizzou's 17 interceptions, returns after starting every game last year. Carl Gettis and Justin Garrett also started the majority of games, and several others have starting experience, making this a very deep secondary. Overall ten of the top eleven tacklers from last year are back, and if the defensive line stays healthy the team D should be much better this year than last.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Kicker Jeff Wolfert is probably the best kicker in the conference, hitting 21 of 25 field goals. Punter Adam Crossett wasn't the best in the league by any means (38.6 ave.) but he's gone and one of juniors Jake Harry or Tanner Mills will replace him.
Recruiting: Missouri is moving up in the recruiting game lately. The last two classes are in the top 40 nationally, particularly the 2008 class. Recruiting is essentially what gives Missouri the edge over Kansas this year; the team profiles are very similar on offense and defense for key players returning, but Missouri's newcomers this year should provide a bigger boost overall. They acquired JUCO defensive end Brian Coulter, who originally went to Florida State, which helps a lot after the departure of the two linemen in the summer. A half-dozen freshmen, mostly redshirts, are listed as 2nd string; in all approximately eight true freshman will avoid the redshirt this fall.
2008 Season Outlook: Only Oklahoma stood between Missouri and an undefeated season last year. Even after the first loss, only the Sooners came between the Tigers and the national championship game. Both times, Chase Daniel and Missouri came up short.

After a close game with Illinois (which became more understandable as the season rolled on), the Tigers beat three hapless foes before dominating Nebraska 41-6. Just when they were looking like a juggernaut, they lost to the Sooners in Norman, 41-31. Bouncing back, they crushed Texas Tech 41-10 and continued on as if nothing had happened, scoring 40 or more points in five straight wins. They met undefeated Kansas for a showdown in Kansas City, and came away the winner, coach Gary Pinkel's offense confusing the normally unflappable Jayhawk defense. Given another shot at Oklahoma, this time on neutral ground, they blew it again, 38-17, sunk by many mistakes at key moments. They were the odd man out of the BCS equation, with Oklahoma of course getting the automatic bid and Kansas getting the nod over them for the Orange Bowl. They fell to the Cotton Bowl, facing an outmatched Arkansas team and thrashing them 38-7, finishing with 12 wins.

Missouri 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	N	Illinois	65%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	SE Missouri State	100%	W
9/13	Sat	vs.	Nevada	85%	W
9/20	Sat	vs.	Buffalo	86%	W
10/4	Sat	@	*Nebraska	67%	W
10/11	Sat	vs.	*Oklahoma State	70%	W
10/18	Sat	@	*Texas	54%	W
10/25	Sat	vs.	*Colorado	71%	W
11/1	Sat	@	*Baylor	81%	W
11/8	Sat	vs.	*Kansas State	74%	W
11/15	Sat	@	*Iowa State	82%	W
11/29	Sat	N	*Kansas	51%	W
Favored: 12-0  Projected: 9-3

For 2008, Missouri essentially borrows Kansas' schedule from 2007. Ok, that's a slight exaggeration, but replace Illinois with Central Michigan and Texas with Texas A&M, and they are equivalent. The Tigers play only four real road games, and are involved in one of the biggest mismatches of the year when they host Southeast Missouri State.

Illinois will be weaker this year and more easily dispatched, then there are three easy games, followed by Nebraska and Oklahoma State. The trip to Austin will be one of Missouri's only two real challenges this season; after that, they have four games in a row they should easily win, with the tougher teams (Colorado and K-State) at home and the easy teams on the road. They meet Kansas again for what should be another pivotal game, though they might be able to win the division without a win there. Regardless, if they do make it to the Big Twelve championship they'll be playing in Kansas City again, probably against Oklahoma. That would be their toughest game of the year, and the winner would likely play for the national championship. Though the cumulative projection falls on 9-3, I don't see the Tigers doing any worse than 10-2, and 12-0 is just as likely. Missouri will have to prove it can beat a great Sooner team when it counts, but they have an opportunity to go all the way this year.

2008 pre-season 120: #7 West Virginia Mountaineers, #8 Kansas Jayhawks

SportsRatings is ranking all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August until the season begins. These rankings are meant to reflect how good the teams might be in 2008 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for each team, and two projected records are given: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and another cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty in the predictions. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. (Schedule listings adapted from James Howell's site)

This installment covers teams #7 and #8. To see the full list, click here.

7. West Virginia Mountaineers     (pre-season AP #8, USA/Coaches #8)

2007 Results:   Record: 11-2   Bowl: Beat Oklahoma 48-28 (Fiesta Bowl)  Poll finish: #6 AP #6 USA
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #1    Success: #4    Combined: #2
Last year's best team by some measures, the Mountaineers lose head coach Rich Rodriguez, running back Steve Slaton, and a lot on defense, but most importantly have Heisman candidate Patrick White back.
Offense (8 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #5   Adj. Rush Yards: #2  Adj. Pass Yards: #114
A few seasons ago, the loss of running back Steve Slaton was a day no Mountaineer fan wanted to imagine. But now that it's happened, it doesn't seem so terrible. First, Slaton's production decreased, as QB Pat White outgained him on the ground last year, 1,335 yards to 1,051; then, Noel Devine emerged as a force at running back and a more-than-adequate replacement. Of course they'll miss Slaton's 17 TDs, but having White and Devine (657 yards, 6 TDs) back is great reassurance. White also ran for 14 TDs, and passed for another 14 TDs and 1,724 yards with just 4 interceptions. The low INT figure and White's 67% completion rate suggests that the passing game could be successfully upscaled from last year's meager figures, which would help limit injuries to White, and new head coach Bill Stewart has said this is a goal of the offense. Leading receiver Darius Reynaud (12 TDs) is gone, and although two starters—Dorrell Jalloh and Tito Gozales—return, they had but 2 TDs between them and will be counted on to step it up. What gives the offense great potential to be just as effective as last year is the offensive line. Five starters return, led by seniors Ryan Stanchek at left tackle and center Mike Dent, with solid guards Greg Isdaner and Jake Figner, and Selvish Capers at right tackle. Backup Eric Rodemoyer started the first half of last year and he was recently dismissed from the team, but they gain transfer John Hafferty who started at Kansas State. Throw in three others with starting experience and one of the nation's top recruits in Josh Jenkins and you have one of the best offensive lines in the country; they would probably be THE best if Rodemoyer was still with them.
Defense (4 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #6   Adj. Rush Def: #27    Adj. Pass Def: #6
The defense loses a lot of talent, and is the big gap in the Mountaineers' national title aspirations. Only four starters are back in the 3-3-5; one up front, two linebackers, and one in the secondary. The front line loses the two best players, Johnny Dingle (9 sacks) and Keilin Dykes, while returning Scooter Berry. But '06 starter Pat Liebig was recently granted a 6th year of eligibility, and the damage to the rushing defense could be minimized with two solid linebackers, Reed Williams and Mortty Ivy returning. The duo were the team's top tacklers in 2007 and had 7 sacks and 2 interceptions between them. They lose Marc Magro, #3 tackler, who had 8 sacks by himself. The secondary, which went from terrible in 2006 to fantastic in 2007, loses four of five starters. Quinton Andrews is the lone returnee; he had one interception while the other starters had nine. Worse, likely starter Charles Pugh was dismissed from the team this summer over credit card fraud allegations. This still should be a good defense, but it won't match last year's scoring or passing defense rankings by a long shot.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Senior Pat McAfee returns to handle both kicking and punting chores. He averaged 42.7 per punt with a great 37.8 net, and made 13 of 19 field goals.
Recruiting: There was a noticeable dropoff from 2007 to 2008, perhaps due to the coaching change. The 2007 class ranked about 20th, the 2008 class roughly 40th. From '07, Bradley Starks has captured the open wide receiver start, despite being a high school QB. True freshmen that could contribute right away include running back Mark Rodgers and cornerback Robert Sands. JUCOs Tevita Finau, Brantwon Bowser, and D.J. Shaw could be immediate backups on defense.
2008 Season Outlook: Up until the last game of the season, 2007 went about as well as West Virginia fans could have hoped, being both optimistic and realistic. Asking for an undefeated season is a bit much, but a 1-loss year was realistic, and with luck should get a team to the BCS title game. Both looked imminent for the Mountaineers. They plowed through a light non-conference schedule that in fairness contained two bowl teams, Maryland and East Carolina. They were upset by South Florida, but recovered to beat Syracuse, Mississippi State, and even Rutgers and Louisville. From a pre-season vantage point those last two wins looked significant, but as it turned out Rutgers and Louisville weren't the real Big East roadblocks: those were Cincinnati and Connecticut. But the Mountaineers bested Cincy and overwhelmed Connecticut, 66-21, and with other things falling into place, they were one game—at home, against Pitt—from facing Ohio State in the BCS title game. But the Pitt defense was particularly staunch that day, and Pat White injured his thumb, and West Virginia just couldn't get the job done. Losing 13-9, they still won the Big East and went to the Fiesta bowl, where they clubbed a great Oklahoma team 48-28. They were one of the many teams that could claim to be the best in 2007, but when it counted they fell short.

West Virginia 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Villanova	88%	W
9/6	Sat	@	East Carolina	71%	W
9/18	Thu	@	Colorado	64%	W
9/27	Sat	vs.	Marshall	89%	W
10/4	Sat	vs.	*Rutgers	67%	W
10/11	Sat	vs.	*Syracuse	92%	W
10/23	Thu	vs.	Auburn	61%	W
11/1	Sat	@	*Connecticut	57%	W
11/8	Sat	vs.	*Cincinnati	65%	W
11/22	Sat	@	*Louisville	74%	W
11/28	Fri	@	*Pittsburgh	60%	W
12/6	Sat	vs.	*South Florida	51%	W
Favored: 12-0  Projected: 8-4

Once again, Mountaineer fans can be realistically optimistic about the team's chances to go to the BCS title game. And 11-1 looks like a real possibility, but that might not get them there if they lose the final game to South Florida and the Bulls take their place. West Virginia's season has two stages this year: the first 11 games, and the USF finale. The first half of the year should put up little resistance, though the Colorado road trip may be interesting, and if they aren't 6-0 by the midpoint, title hopes are pretty much dashed. The first big test is Auburn, whom the Mountaineers host, then the game at Connecticut follows. A trip to Pitt at the end of November offers a chance for revenge. All of these games are tough, but are very winnable and West Virginia could easily be 11-0 or 10-1 before the USF game. That one is a toss-up from this vantage point. By that time there may be a very clear favorite, but right now it looks like the winner wins the Big East, thus going to a BCS bowl if not the BCS bowl. If White is hobbled by minor injuries all year, and teams find they can once again pick apart the secondary as they could in 2006, then the 8-4 cumulative projection could come true, but I see this team as at least 10-2: 10-1 or 11-0 for the first 11, then winning or losing the USF showdown, which has the potential to be the biggest game of the regular season.

8. Kansas Jayhawks      (pre-season AP #14, USA/Coaches #13)

2007 Results:  Record:12-1  Bowl: beat Virginia Tech 24-21 (Orange Bowl)  Poll finish:#7 AP #7 USA
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #5     Success: #5     Combined: #5
Kansas is mentioned often as one of the teams that will take a great fall back to reality this year. While this may come true, it's more due to schedule and the glut of top teams in the Big Twelve this year (four of the top eight, by my pre-season rankings). Even though they're still a top ten team, it's very unlikely they'll finish the season there again.
Offense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #7    Adj. Rush Yards: #41    Adj. Pass Yards: #21
Like the defense, the offense's yardage stats didn't jibe with their far better scoring rating; this is because Kansas was 1st in the nation in turnover margin. One reason for that was QB Todd Reesing, who had simply an incredible year leading Kansas in their dream season, throwing for nearly 3,500 yards and 33 TDs against just 7 interceptions. Not mentioned enough, he should be considered one of the many Heisman-level quarterbacks this year. He'll miss his best target, Marcus Henry, with his 1,014 yards and 10 TDs, and even d-back Aqib Talib's 8 receptions (since 4 were for TDs), but two starting receivers—Dexton Fields and Dezmon Briscoe—are back and combined for 1,330 yards and 13 TDs. The one to really miss is running back Brandon McAndrews, who ran for 1,125 yards and 16 TDs. Backup Jake Sharp is solid (821 yards and 7 TDs), and JUCO hotshot Jocques Crawford will help matters. Until recently, KU was very deep at the position, but three backs either quit or are ineligible; still, Sharp and Crawford should be a good one-two combo. The offensive line is a mixed bag. At three positions, the Jayhawks are rock-solid, with full-time senior starters Ryan Cantrell at center and Chet Hartley and Adrian Mayes at guards. But redshirt freshmen are set to take over at both tackle positions, replacing All-American Anthony Collins and 4-year starter Cesar Rodriguez. If everything works out the offense could be almost as good as last year's, but it may take some time.
Defense (9 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #5      Adj. Rush Def: #12     Adj. Pass Def: #38
The main thing missing from the defense is Aqib Talib, who had 5 interceptions, 2 of which he ran back for touchdowns, including a game-breaker in the Orange Bowl. Other than he and James McClintock at tackle, the defense is pretty much intact from the group that stopped the run effectively, and bent a bit on pass coverage but forced a lot of turnovers to make up for it. This unit could be just as good as last year's #5 in adjusted scoring defense, though their raw ranking (#4) will suffer with the much harder schedule. Three linemen return, and with the help of three returning linebackers—Mike Riviera, Joe Mortensen, and James Holt, the team's three leading tacklers, they may be able to repeat their great rushing defense stats. But the concern in the Big Twelve this year is passing defense. Three starters return in the secondary, with experienced reserves, though with Talib gone and without '06 starter Anthony Webb (dismissed), they'll still have their hands full in their conference. Chris Harris, Darrell Stuckey, and Justin Thornton combined for nine interceptions last year, and they'll need to continue the team's turnover-hungry ways to make the difference in big games.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Things have gone from bad to worse lately for the kicking game. Already needing to replace kicker Scott Webb (18 of 26 FGs) and punter Kyle Tucker (38.9 ave), the fall camp saw expected replacement kicker Stephen Hoge quit the team, while Brian Blackwell left earlier, and Air Force transfer Jacob Branstetter may have eligibility issues; meanwhile punter Kyle Davis also quit. Sophomore Alonso Rojas is the 1st team punter for now, and JUCO Grady Fowler is the only other kicker on the roster. Of all KU's high-profile losses, this might be the one that really bites them if they don't find a solution.
Recruiting: Mark Mangino built the team on players everyone else either missed or dismissed as unworthy. With their recent success, they should be able to go after more of the stars. Crawford, the aforementioned JUCO running back, is a great catch. And the two redshirt freshmen set to start on the offensive line—Jeff Spikes and Jeremiah Hatch—will be greats someday according to the coach. Wide receiver Daymond Patterson, defensive lineman Darius Parish and cornerback Corrigan Powell are the true freshmen on the 2-deep lineup.
2008 Season Outlook: 2007 was pretty magical for KU fans, with the football team nearly achieving the success that the basketball team did a few months later. The first four games, even if against weak opposition, showed that Kansas was a powerhouse, as they won by a combined 214-23. Central Michigan, whom they beat 52-7, went to a bowl game. But once the conference season started, the only teams they'd dominate in that manner were Baylor and Iowa State. Kansas State, Colorado, and Texas A&M, all mid-level teams, put up a lot of resistance. KU hung 76 points on Nebraska but gave up 39, and beat Oklahoma State 43-28. So the offense and defense that worked flawlessly and amazingly against lesser opponents still got the job done, but it was rocky at times. When they finally faced a top-25 caliber team, they fell to Missouri, 36-28. But Missouri wasn't just top 25, they were top 10 (or top 5). KU got another chance against Virginia Tech and beat the Hokies 24-21, proving they could handle tough competition. Still, the naysayers believe their success was due to their schedule, and some of it was. But more of it was due to talent.

Kansas 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Florida International	100%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	Louisiana Tech	92%	W
9/13	Sat	@	South Florida	44%	L
9/20	Sat	vs.	Sam Houston State	97%	W
10/4	Sat	@	*Iowa State	81%	W
10/11	Sat	vs.	*Colorado	71%	W
10/18	Sat	@	*Oklahoma	44%	L
10/25	Sat	vs.	*Texas Tech	51%	W
11/1	Sat	vs.	*Kansas State	73%	W
11/8	Sat	@	*Nebraska	66%	W
11/15	Sat	vs.	*Texas	60%	W
11/29	Sat	N	*Missouri	49%	L
Favored: 9-3  Projected: 8-4

Kansas has three of the easiest games of 2008, and three of the hardest. FIU, Louisiana Tech, and Sam Houston State are all gimmes, while USF and Oklahoma on the road and Missouri in Kansas City are killers. This Jayhawk team will have to prove itself many times, and has Texas Tech and Texas to boot, though those are at home and (barely) winnable. This is a case where the cumulative projection may be the more accurate, as it's impossible to say which games Kansas has a chance in of the close ones. 7-5 and 6-6 are even possibilities depending on how a few other teams, like Nebraska, improve. The Jayhawks do have seven home games, and a chance at beating Missouri, so I'm thinking they'll get to nine wins—if not in the regular season, then by winning a bowl game that will definitely be beneath their actual quality level as an 8-4 team.

Pre-season 120: #9 Georgia Bulldogs, #10 Oregon Ducks

SportsRatings is ranking all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August until the season begins. These rankings are meant to reflect how good the teams might be in 2008 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for each team, and two projected records are given: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and another cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty in the predictions. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. (Schedule listings adapted from James Howell's site)

This installment covers teams #9 and #10. To see the full list, click here.

9. Georgia Bulldogs     (pre-season AP #1, USA/Coaches #1)

2007 Results:    Record: 11-2     Bowl: Beat Hawaii 41-10 (Sugar Bowl)   Poll finish: #2 AP #3 USA
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #11    Success: #3    Combined: #9
Georgia begins the season #1 in both major polls. Are they as good as touted, and even if so, can they make it through the SEC relatively unscathed?
Offense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #26   Adj. Rush Yards: #33  Adj. Pass Yards: #82
Knowshon Moreno was last year's revelation, coming on strong in the 2nd half of the season concurrent with Georgia beginning to dominate. He became the starter, finishing with 1,334 yards and 14 TDs. Moreno is back and is as much of a Heisman troophy candidate as a sophomore can be, which is to say he's likely shooting for 2nd place despite the precedent having been set. Some are touting junior QB Matthew Stafford for the same award; while he had a decent season last year (2,500 yards, 19 TDs) he would need to up his 55% completion rate and reduce his 10 INTs to be taken seriously, regardless of how Georgia does this year. Top receiver Sean Bailey is gone but Mohamed Massaquoi is back, as is tight end Tripp Chandler. Protection for Stafford and blocking for Moreno is an issue. The line returns only two starters—center Chris Davis and guard Clint Boling—as tackle Trinton Sturdivant was lost for the season, injured in a scrimmage. Boling may miss a game or two due to a DUI, and fullback Brannan Southerland will miss 3 to 5 games (including the very tight South Carolina road game) while recovering from foot surgery.
Defense (9 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #9   Adj. Rush Def: #18    Adj. Pass Def: #14
The defense was solid in 2007 and should be even better in 2008. Three starters return on the defensive line, led by tackles Geno Atkins  and Jeff Owens, with Roderick Battle at end and several quality backups to compensate for the loss of Marcus Howard (10.5 sacks). Linebacker is less straightforward, with the loss of two part-time starters including Marcus Washington who is redshirting due to injury; backup Darius Dewberry suspended for two games; and redshirt frosh Charles White out for the year. But team leading tackler Daniel Ellerbe returns with two part-time starters covering strong-side, while Rennie Curran at weak-side was the team's #4 tackler last year despite starting only 1/2 time. So it's close to having all starters return, especially since Georgia may move to using only two linebackers to add an extra man in the secondary. Speaking of which, three starters return to last year's excellent unit: Prince Miller, Asher Allen, and C.J. Byrd. In all six of the team's top seven leading tacklers are back, and 15 out of the top 20.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Punter Brian Mimbs averaged 42.4 yards per punt and netted 37.9, both very good figures. But excellent kicker Brandon Coutu is gone, and true freshman Blair Walsh will try to fill his shoes.
Recruiting: Richt is doing a fine job; both of the last 2 classes were in or near the top 10. From '07, redshirt frosh Caleb King will back up Moreno, and Justin Anderson is looking strong on the offensive line. The '08 class' prize may be wide receiver A.J. Green.
2008 Season Outlook: Georgia was less than dominant in the first half of 2007. A loss to South Carolina was disappointing, but the overtime win at Alabama brought them back. When Tennessee beat the Bulldogs 35-14, however, Georgia looked to be consigned to the role of spoiler in the SEC. As it turns out, Tennessee's win was what prevented the Bulldogs from getting to the SEC title game, but Georgia did the best they could, winning six straight games to finish the regular season 10-2. The key was the emergence of Knowshon Moreno as a force on offense, as he ran through Florida like butter and probably prevented Vanderbilt from getting an upset. Troy also hung with the Bulldogs for a long time before succumbing, 44-34, but Auburn, Kentucky, and Georgia Tech all fell relatively easily. The game vs. Hawaii had an obvious outcome, as Georgia was virtually a home team compared to the overrated Warriors, and the 41-10 final pretty much says it all. The passing defense was excellent against Hawaii, with 8 sacks. Like USC, Georgia suffered two losses but finished strong and had people proclaiming they were the best team in the country at the end.

Georgia 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Georgia Southern	87%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	Central Michigan	78%	W
9/13	Sat	@	*South Carolina	49%	L
9/20	Sat	@	Arizona State	53%	W
9/27	Sat	vs.	*Alabama	61%	W
10/11	Sat	vs.	*Tennessee	62%	W
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Vanderbilt	75%	W
10/25	Sat	@	*Louisiana State	51%	W
11/1	Sat	N	*Florida	39%	L
11/8	Sat	@	*Kentucky	59%	W
11/15	Sat	@	*Auburn	51%	W
11/29	Sat	vs.	Georgia Tech	78%	W
Favored: 10-2  Projected: 7-5

People are expecting Georgia to be a great team in 2008, and while they're even better than last year, their schedule might be a bit too much to expect perfection from them. As noted, they are missing a handful of players for the first game, but Georgia Southern will be missing eight suspended players themselves. Central Michigan shouldn't be an obstacle, but then they face two tough road games, South Carolina and ASU. They'll probably split those, though it's more likely they can sweep those two than the two that come later, LSU and Florida, neither at home. Another road trip to Auburn, and to me it looks like the Bulldogs' best hope is for 11-1, with 10-2 or 9-3 more likely. That won't get them into the national championship game. 2007 was a fluke in a lot of ways: a sophomore winning the Heisman, and a 2-loss team winning the national championship. So it looks like Moreno and the Dawgs are out of luck. Even if the pollsters are right and Georgia is the best team, this schedule might not allow them to prove it, once again.

10. Oregon Ducks      (pre-season AP #21, USA/Coaches #20)

2007 Results:  Record:9-4  Bowl: beat South Florida 56-21 (Sun Bowl)  Poll finish:#23 AP #24 USA
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #7     Success: #10     Combined: #8
Oregon was the best team in the nation for a time last year—before they lost Dennis Dixon. After playing aimlessly for three games, they regrouped and demolished a great USF team in the Sun Bowl. That game showed how good the team could be even without Dixon, and makes the Ducks my surprise pick in the Pac-10, despite their considerable losses and the many uncertainties they face this fall.
Offense (5 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #6    Adj. Rush Yards: #5    Adj. Pass Yards: #59
Dennis Dixon wasn't just the Ducks' best player, he was their team leader. That's why they fell so far when he was hurt, despite the wealth of talent on the team: they couldn't function without their leader. Dixon was also the clear leader in the Heisman race at the time, with a 20:4 TD to INT ratio and 68% completion rate, paired with over 500 rushing yards and 9 TDs. His absence, and the injury to backup Brady Leaf, left a stable of untried QBs that faltered until the bowl game where Justin Roper was excellent. Now, in the battle to replace Dixon at starter, the pecking order looks like this: Nate Costa has moved ahead of Roper; Justin Roper will be the starter, as Nate Costa is out for the season with a knee injury; JUCO Jeremiah Masoli and true freshmen Chris Harper and Darron Thomas are backups (two other QBs transferred, for obvious reasons). My feeling is, if the quarterback corps improved so much between, say, the UCLA game and the USF game, they'll be fine after an entire off-season to adjust the offense. And Costa's injury hurts but Roper was the man against USF and they have depth. Of course, a big part of the USF win was RB Jonathan Stewart (1,722 yards, 11 TDs) and he's gone, too. They're prepared to replace him, however, having the same size stable of running backs as quarterbacks, but no one returns that rushed for as many yards as Dixon let alone Stewart. So what will make the offense work? Well, returning receiver Jaison Williams (844 yards, 8 TDs) is a fine target for any QB, and he returns with tight end Ed Dickson (3 TDs). Also, the offensive line will make any running back successful, with three senior starters led by tackle Fenuki Tupou. The offense will look very different, with the receivers and O-line generating the gains rather than two key superstars, but it will still be potent, though not nearly as good as last year's, which was #1 before Dixon's untimely exit.
Defense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #23      Adj. Rush Def: #14     Adj. Pass Def: #78
The defense should be better in every area this year. The poor pass yardage rating from last year doesn't tell the whole story, as 20 drives ended in interception and Oregon's red zone defense was excellent, so despite the yardage teams put up it didn't translate equally into points. Three excellent starters return to the secondary: Corners Walter Thurmond (5 int., 18 pass break-ups) and Jairus Byrd (7 int., 15 pass break-ups), and safety Patrick Chung (team's #1 tackler), so look for their ranking to move up. The linebackers have depth, losing just two part-time starters and returning Jerome Boyd and John Bacon, with Kevin Garrett, Casey Matthews, and Spencer Paysinger covering the other slot and providing backup. The D-line was great against the run and Nick Reed was a nightmare for opposing quarterbacks with 12 sacks. He returns at end with Will Tukuafu. Like the offense, the defense returns a huge amount of reserves from last season.
Kicking Game (2 RS): The Duck kicking game is in great shape, with punter Josh Syria netting 36.7 per punt, and Matt Evensen perfect on PATs and 16 of 20 on field goals, with good distance on kickoffs.
Recruiting: The 2008 class was great, borderline top 25, while the '07 class was better, borderline top 10. Many of the best from 2007 played as true freshman, which is why the 2nd string is sophomore-heavy this season. Of this year's true frosh, LeGarrette Blount is one of the many running backs looking to replace Stewart, and John Boyett could factor at the open safety spot. Hamani Stevens impressed coaches after moving to the defensive line. Unfortunately, there were some bad notes: Top JUCO d-lineman Justin Thompson didn't qualify, and redshirt frosh linebacker Todd Doxey died in a bridge-jumping accident in the summer.
2008 Season Outlook: Last year was a dream season that came to an abrupt and rude awakening. Oregon was on a roll and was destined for the national championship game, when Dennis Dixon, hurt previously in the ASU game, badly re-injured his knee against Arizona. The Ducks fell apart, losing that game and the next two against UCLA and Oregon State, finishing 8-4. Before that point, Oregon looked indestructable, beating USC and Arizona State to go 8-1. A loss to Cal in the fifth game was their only blemish and a dominant win over Michigan in game 2 was their coming out party. At their peak the offense was the best in the country, but Dixon's downfall will always have the Ducks faithful wondering "what if."

Oregon 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	*Washington	71%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	Utah State	89%	W
9/13	Sat	@	Purdue	65%	W
9/20	Sat	vs.	Boise State	67%	W
9/27	Sat	@	*Washington State	68%	W
10/4	Sat	@	*Southern California	50%	L
10/11	Sat	vs.	*UCLA	71%	W
10/18	Sat	@	*Arizona State	53%	W
11/1	Sat	@	*California	58%	W
11/8	Sat	vs.	*Stanford	74%	W
11/15	Sat	vs.	*Arizona	63%	W
11/29	Sat	@	*Oregon State	62%	W
Favored: 11-1  Projected: 8-4

Oregon rates as the Pac-10's best team—can that be right? The team that loses Dennis Dixon and Jonathan Stewart is good enough to beat USC and ASU on the road? According to my projections, possibly; the latter two have issues of their own, and all the top Pac-10 teams are weaker this year than last. Still, a 12-0 finish defies credulity, considering that last year's team had a loss even with Dixon healthy. The hardest game will clearly be in Pasadena which could go either way, and another loss would be expected somewhere else to put them 10-2. The conservative projection of 8-4 will become a reality if the quarterback play isn't good, and Costa's injury is the first step toward that situation. I'll watch this team with interest this year, to see what develops. They have a pretty easy pre-conference schedule, so if they're not 5-0 before the USC game, don't expect much from them at all. On the other hand, if they're 8-0 through October, they could play in the national title game in '08, making up for '07's missed opportunity. More than any other team, the Ducks' potential range of outcomes is very broad, because they both lost more talent—and return more—than almost anyone else.

Pre-season 120: #11 Clemson; #12 LSU; #13 Texas

SportsRatings is ranking all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August until the season begins. These rankings are meant to reflect how good the teams might be in 2008 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for each team, and two projected records are given: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and another cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty in the predictions. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. (Schedule listings adapted from James Howell's site)

This installment covers teams from #11 to #13. To see the full list, click here.

11. Clemson Tigers     (pre-season AP #9, USA/Coaches #9)

2007 Results:   Record: 9-4    Bowl: L to Auburn 23-20 OT (Chik-Fil-A)  Poll finish: #21 AP #22 USA
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #13    Success: #29    Combined: #16
A lot is expected of the Tigers this year. Will this be the year they win the ACC?
Offense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #18   Adj. Rush Yards: #34  Adj. Pass Yards: #58
If there's really such a thing as a "short list" of Heisman candidates, then Clemson QB Cullen Harper should minimally make the long list. With a 27-6 TD to interception count, 65% completion rate, and just shy of 3,000 yards last season, Harper will be in the running if Clemson has the kind of year it would like to have. The top three receivers are back led by Aaron Kelly (1,081 yds, 11 TDs) as is tight end Michael Palmer. Running back James Davis (1,064 yds, 10 TDs) could have Heisman stats himself, but he shares carries with C.J. Spiller (768 yds). The offensive line is the only questionable area, as only center Thomas Austin returns as a full-time starter from last year, and three full-time starters depart, including four-year starter Barry Richardson.
Defense (6.5 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #21   Adj. Rush Def: #39    Adj. Pass Def: #10
The football gods giveth, and they taketh away. That's what happened to Clemson's defense. The taketh away could refer to Clemson linebacker Cortney Vincent, dismissed from the team, leaving the linebacking corps without a returning starter. Or it could mean defensive tackle Rashaad Jackson, gone for at least 1/2 the season with a torn tendon. The giveth? Da'Quan Bowers, a five-star defensive line recruit who, along with returning starters Dorell Scott and Ricky Sapp, will have to help make up for Vincent and Jackson's absence, as well as Tramaine Billie's 7 sacks and Nick Watkins' 118 tackles. The secondary is looking far better, though, with four starters back: corners Crezdon Butler and Chris Chancellor, and safeties Michael Hamlin and Chris Clemons started every game for the Tigers last year. This unit could be the best in the country even if excellent backup Deandre McDaniel's legal troubles cost him playing time, and/or he switches to linebacker where he is needed more.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Punter Jimmy Maners averaged 42.8 yards a punt, but netted 10 yards less, which wasn't due to lack of hangtime but rather poor coverage. He's back, as is kicker Mark Buchholz, who was 16 of 19 inside the 40 but a dismal 6 for 17 outside.
Recruiting: Clemson nearly had a top ten recruiting class in '08, largely because of Bowers (see offense), who is likely to start immediately. The 2007 class was a top 25 class, too, and redshirt freshmen David Smith and Brandon May will help fill the gaps in the offensive line and at linebacker, respectively.
2008 Season Outlook: 2007 was another year where Clemson didn't quite break through. It wasn't a repeat of 2006, where the Tigers started strong and finished poorly; but they didn't win the ACC nor get to the title game, and they lost two of three at the end including the tight bowl game. The low point was when they stood 4-2 after back to back losses at Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech, and many wrote them off; their high point followed, a four game winning streak where Clemson crushed Central Michigan 70-14, beat Maryland and Duke, and swamped Wake Forest 44-10. By that time, there was talk of a BCS bowl, but the Tigers lost to Boston College 20-17, and barely beat South Carolina to finish the regular season 9-3.

Clemson 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	N	Alabama	56%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	Citadel	85%	W
9/13	Sat	vs.	*North Carolina St.	83%	W
9/20	Sat	vs.	South Carolina St.	94%	W
9/27	Sat	vs.	*Maryland	61%	W
10/9	Thu	@	*Wake Forest	57%	W
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Georgia Tech	75%	W
11/1	Sat	@	*Boston College	62%	W
11/8	Sat	@	*Florida State	56%	W
11/15	Sat	vs.	*Duke	79%	W
11/22	Sat	@	*Virginia	67%	W
11/29	Sat	vs.	South Carolina	56%	W
Favored: 12-0  Projected: 8-4

One reason most publications rank Clemson high this year is because it appears that they will be good. But some are using another reason: schedule. The Tigers have only four real road games, they play two Division I-AA teams, and they play in the ACC, which has a handful of strong teams but few elite. I figure Clemson is a pretty solid favorite in every game, and that going 12-0 is a possibility, even if the (very conservative) odds above give them only a 1% chance of doing so. The potential pitfalls are the Alabama opener in Atlanta, at Wake Forest, at FSU, and at South Carolina, each of which Clemson is a definite but shaky favorite. Lose all of them and it's another good but disappointing year. Split them, which is realistic, and they're 10-2, an improvement but maybe not enought to get to the ACC title game. To be consistent enough to win throughout the entire year, the offensive line has to grow up fast, as does the front seven on defense. If they make it past the Alabama game, they'll have a good breather before their next test. Clemson definitely has the potential—and the schedule—to be playing for the national championship in January.

12. Louisiana State Tigers      (pre-season AP #7, USA/Coaches #6)

2007 Results: Record:12-2 Bowl: beat Ohio State 38-24 (BCS championship) Poll finish:#1 AP #1 USA
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #4     Success: #1     Combined: #1
Last year's national champs suffered a plethora of losses even before Ryan Perrilloux was kicked off the squad.
Offense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #4    Adj. Rush Yards: #11    Adj. Pass Yards: #52
Matt Flynn did a good job last year as LSU's quarterback, with 2,407 yards and 21 TDs vs. 11 interceptions, plus 215 net rushing yards and 4 TDs. But Ryan Perrillous was set to be a very able replacement; just in '07's limited play, he hit 68% of his attempts for 694 yards and 8 TDs vs. 2 INT, and ran for 207 yards and 2 TDs. In other words, he had a far better completion percentage and rushing average than his predecessor. But both QBs are gone for next year, as Perrillous was dismissed after a variety of incidents over the years made coach Les Miles hit his breaking point. Now a redshirt freshman, a true freshman, or sophomore will take over, none of whom have real experience. And that's not the only hole on the offense, though the others at least have good options to fill them. Jacob Hester (1,103 yards, 12 TDs) is gone, but four other backs return who combined for 1,396 yards and 15 TDs while averaging 6.9 yards per carry. Earl Doucet is gone, but the two top receivers Brandon LaFell and Demetrius Byrd (7 TDs) are back. On the offensive line four starters return, led by senior Herman Johnson and junior Ciron Black. So even with the loss of some key players, LSU's offense is strong all around—except at quarterback. The Tigers generally lived by the run last year, and should do so even more this year.
Defense (5 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #12      Adj. Rush Def: #15     Adj. Pass Def: #17
The key loss on this side of the ball is clearly Glen Dorsey, the best defensive lineman in college football last year. Dorsey was hurt a lot of the year, so the dropoff might not be as great as expected—they've learned to play without him already. Also, three starters return—Kirston Pittman, Tyson Jackson, and Marlon Favorite—as well as Charles Alexander (who started in place of Favorite some games) and Ricky Jean-Francois, the BCS Bowl MVP who was held out most of the year, making the line the strongest part of the defense. Other areas aren't in as good of shape: the linebackers lose Ali Highsmith (101 tackles) though Darry Beckwith returns; the secondary returns only Curtis Taylor, losing three players who totalled 14 interceptions including Craig Steltz (101 tackles). LSU always has good passing defense, so they won't be terrible, but they won't be as good as last year either. The defense overall loses its top three tacklers, not to mention defensive coordinator Bo Pelini, now head coach at Nebraska.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Colt David returns after kicking 26 of 33 field goals in '07 and 66 of 66 extra points. Punter Patrick Fisher (excellent 44.5 average) is gone, and either Bradley Dalfrey or Josh Jasper will replace him.
Recruiting: LSU is a recruiting machine lately, and the last two classes were top 15 easily with '07 in the top 5. At cornerback, two '08 recruits, Patrick Peterson (nee Patrick Johnson) and Brandon Taylor, could see playing time or even start. Ryan Baker and Kellen Theriot look to be backups at linebacker. Newcomers from '07 are well-represented in the 2nd string and of course by likely starter Jarrett Lee at QB. One highly-touted recruit, WR DeAngelo Benton, is from both the '07 and '08 classes, but still hasn't qualified to enroll.
2008 Season Outlook: What can be said about a national championship year? Except that, even though it felt like one all year, near the end it didn't look like it could happen. Certainly the 45-0 shutout of Mississippi State was expected, but in retrospect that had to be one of the most dominant performances of the year. Unless the 48-7 crushing of Virginia Tech counts for more, which it should. One more shutout, Middle Tennessee, 44-0, and that was the best we saw of the LSU Tigers. After that, it was all about trying to regain the form of the first three games.

The Tigers handled South Carolina, who looked sharp at the time, and beat Florida but had to risk it on 4th down several times, at home, to insure a win. By the time LSU lost to Kentucky in triple overtime they looked like a tired team—tired of facing all these tough opponents. Injuries were taking their toll. The worst would come in the next game, a close contest with Auburn, where Glen Dorsey was hurt. The defense that dominated the first several games was gone. The Tigers struggled to beat Alabama; it seemed like another loss, and with it, the death toll for a national championship, loomed at every corner. But they kept dodging it. Giving up 24 to Mississippi? Something wasn't right. Facing Arkansas, the triple overtime jinx hit again, and LSU was 10-2. No team with two losses had ever won the national championship. At the same time, in the era before overtime, LSU would have been 10-0-2, and still a legit contender. As it turned out, they were; every other team that could reasonably claim to be worthy suffered a second loss, and after beating Tennessee in the SEC championship game, the Tigers played for the title, whipping Ohio State, 38-24. The championship dream that seemed gone came back in an instant.

LSU 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Appalachian State	70%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	Troy	66%	W
9/13	Sat	vs.	North Texas	96%	W
9/20	Sat	@	*Auburn	47%	L
9/27	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi State	65%	W
10/11	Sat	@	*Florida	31%	L
10/18	Sat	@	*South Carolina	47%	L
10/25	Sat	vs.	*Georgia	49%	L
11/1	Sat	vs.	Tulane	86%	W
11/8	Sat	vs.	*Alabama	57%	W
11/22	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi	70%	W
11/29	Sat	@	*Arkansas	57%	W
Favored: 8-4  Projected: 7-5

LSU has only four road games, but three of them are Auburn, Florida, and South Carolina. They also play Georgia at home. Though three of these look close, they could lose all four and finish 8-4 this year, and I wouldn't be surprised. Everyone assumes the national champ becomes a dynasty, but they can just as easily have 4 losses the following year—see Florida in 2007. The Tigers are one of the best teams in the nation despite their personnel losses, but their schedule is murder.

13. Texas Longhorns     (pre-season AP #11, USA/Coaches #10)

2007 Results:    Record: 10-3   Bowl: beat ASU 52-34 (Holiday Bowl)   Poll finish: #10 AP #10 USA 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #15    Success: #21    Combined: #15
The Longhorns nearly rank in the top ten in the country, yet are only 5th in their conference.
Offense (7 RS)     '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #12    Adj. Rush Yards: #15    Adj. Pass Yards: #35
The big loss on offense is Jamaal Charles, who bolted for the pros after an astounding 2nd half of the 2007 season. Overall he had 1,619 yards and 18 TDs. Texas gets their 2nd leading rusher back, though: quarterback Colt McCoy. McCoy's sophomore slump is well-documented, but he still threw for 3,303 yards and 22 TDs. Add almost 500 yards and 4 TDs rushing, and what was a slump to McCoy is a banner year for most QBs (disregarding the 18 interceptions). With Quan Cosby and Jordan Shipley to throw to, and behind a powerful line that returns four starters, look for McCoy to have a much better junior year and potentially be the Heisman candidate that people expected in '07. Without Charles, the offense will be more dependent on the QB position, and even though versatile John Chiles will get time at QB, he won't cut far into McCoy's stats; Chiles might have more rushing yards than passing and could even be moved to tailback if no solid answer is found there. The Longhorns will have a 300 lb. tight end this year as Greg Clark has moved there from left guard.
Defense (5 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #37    Adj. Rush Def: #10    Adj. Pass Def: #87
The rushing defense was the Longhorn defense's saving grace in 2007, as they couldn't defend the pass well all year. Despite losing two starters, in practical terms they have three back in the front four (you do the math), with Brian Orakpo and Lamarr Houston joined by part-time starter Aaron Lewis and '06 starter Roy Miller. Only one starter, Rashad Bobino, returns at linebacker, but new starters Jared Norton and Roddrick Muckelroy are every bit as good as those they replace, and were the #6 and #10 tacklers on the team last year. The secondary is a major concern; after a poor year in terms of yardage yielded, they lose three starters, including #1 and #3 tacklers Marcus Griffin and Brandon Foster, who combined for 9 interceptions (over half the team's total). Ryan Palmer returns at corner, and the others are good athletes, but Texas will be facing the best quarterbacks in the nation in the Big Twelve so this unit will be tested many times in '08. Because of this, Texas may employ a nickel defense against selected teams to provide more coverage. The recent injury of listed starter Ishie Oduegwu (out indefinitely) leaves the safety spots with zero practical experience.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Texas is set at kicker with Ryan Bailey, who made 18 of 22 field goals last season as well as 58 of 59 PATs. Not so at punter, where Justin Moore is gone after averaging 41 yds per punt. He shared duties with Trevor Gerland, who returns but averaged just 37.7 (Gerland wasn't the short punter last year—that was Colt McCoy, who put 3 of 3 attempts inside the 20). Gerland may keep the job, though with freshman Justin Tucker and walk-on John Gold in the mix, it might be another punter-by-committee year.
Recruiting: Texas had a top-five class in 2007 and another top 20 class in '08. A redshirt from '07, Fozzy Whittaker is one of the many running backs looking to take over for Charles, and defensive backs Earl Thomas and Ben Wells are ready to help rebuild the secondary, along with '08 recruits Aaron Williams and Nolan Brewster.
2008 Season Outlook: The '07 season looked like it was going bad fast—losses to Kansas State and then Oklahoma put the Longhorns at 4-2, and 0-2 in conference play. Against Nebraska they were down 17-3 in the 2nd half but Jamaal Charles exploded for three straight touchdowns, including an 86-yarder, to win the game. Charles had 290 yards in that game, and also keyed the annual big comeback against Oklahoma State with a 75-yard run, and had 174 yards to help win the 59-43 shootout with Texas Tech. The Longhorns finally came up short against Texas A&M, 38-30, but took it to Arizona State in the Holiday Bowl to finish with 10 wins.

Texas 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Florida Atlantic	71%	W
9/6	Sat	@	Texas-El Paso	77%	W
9/13	Sat	vs.	Arkansas	64%	W
9/20	Sat	vs.	Rice	87%	W
10/4	Sat	@	*Colorado	57%	W
10/11	Sat	N	*Oklahoma	40%	L
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Missouri	46%	L
10/25	Sat	vs.	*Oklahoma State	63%	W
11/1	Sat	@	*Texas Tech	37%	L
11/8	Sat	vs.	*Baylor	80%	W
11/15	Sat	@	*Kansas	40%	L
11/28	Fri	vs.	*Texas A&M	66%	W
Favored: 8-4  Projected: 7-5

The Longhorn pre-conference schedule is a breeze, but once they get into Big Twelve play it's a different matter. Their road games are Colorado, Texas Tech, and Kansas, all teams they might beat at home but they'll be fortunate to win more than one on the road. Oklahoma and Missouri are tough prospects as well. This is the wrong year to have a questionable pass defense in the Big 12 and Texas will need some luck to reach 10 wins again, bowl game included.

2008 pre-season 120: #14 South Carolina, #15 USC, #16 Auburn

SportsRatings is ranking all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August until the season begins. These rankings are meant to reflect how good the teams might be in 2008 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for each team, and two projected records are given: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and another cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty in the predictions. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. (Schedule listings adapted from James Howell's site)

This installment covers teams from #14 to #16. To see the full list, click here.

14. South Carolina Gamecocks

2007 Results:      Record: 6-6     Bowl: n/a     Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #35    Success: #30    Combined: #30
Notice that Steve Spurrier has been quiet lately? Maybe he knows something that others are missing—how good his team is going to be this year—and he wants it to be a surprise. South Carolina indeed may be the surprise of the countdown to be ranked so high, but the Gamecocks are deep with talent. They just need to play to their potential.
Offense (6 RS)     '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #55    Adj. Rush Yards: #89    Adj. Pass Yards: #25
If South Carolina is really going to compete in the SEC, they need a stronger offense. Losing your starting quarterback and running back is not a good foundation. But last year's main QB Blake Mitchell was no superstar, with 10 TDs and 9 interceptions; backup Chris Smelley had 9 TDs (and 7 INTs) in almost 100 fewer attempts. But Steve Spurrier is passing over both him and highly-recruited redshirt freshman Stephen Garcia (suspended in the spring) for Tommy Beecher, who had a 1:1 TD:INT ratio. Literally, he had one of each. To help break him in, starting receiver Kenny McKinley (9 TDs) and co-starters Dion LeCorn, Freddie Brown, and tight end Jarod Cook return. To protect him, four starters are back on the deep offensive line. They'll be counted on to drive the running game, which was meager last year and loses Cory Boyd (9 TDs). His replacement, Mike Davis, ran for over 500 yards and 5 TDs and there are other good backs in the pipeline; in fact the offense as a whole is deep, with 20 2nd and 3rd stringers back.
Defense (10 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #19    Adj. Rush Def: #84    Adj. Pass Def: #15
The Gamecock D wasn't nearly as bad at stopping the run, or as good at stopping the pass, as their raw yardage rankings (110th, 4th) would suggest. But there's no doubt that stopping the run is going to be a priority this season, and that they'd like to repeat their passing defense stats. There's a good chance they can do both with the amount of starters that return and the depth of reserves. Six starters return in the front seven: Linebacker Cliff Matthews moved up to the front four, swapping places with Eric Norwood; Marque Hall and Ladi Ajiboye return up front with two other starters from '06; Rodney Paulk returns at linebacker with Marvin Sapp, who will play behind '06 starter Jasper Brinkley. The secondary should be just as good, with leading tackler Emanuel Cook, corners Captain Munnerly and Carlos Thomas, and safety Darian Stewart all back, and some experienced backups. More reshuffling will be required when SC uses its 4-2-5 scheme, but they have talent enough for any configuration.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Ryan Succop performed double duty as kicker and punter last year, making 13 of 17 goals and averaging a quite respectable 41.6 yards per punt. Since he does kickoffs as well, he may yield punting duties this year to soph Spencer Lanning or true frosh Ryan Doerr.
Recruiting: South Carolina's been getting good recruits for a long time now, despite not being one of the marquee teams in the SEC. The big reason is that they've had the biggest names in coaching for the last decade, first with Lou Holtz and now Steve Spurrier. This year's class isn't as amazing as the top 10 '07 class, but it's still in the top 25 as usual. Running back Eric Baker is the one everyone's looking at, and waiting for the day when he and prize '07 recruit Garcia will be the focal point of the offense. If Davis and Beecher don't deliver, that might be sooner than expected.
2008 Season Outlook: Of all the teams that had disappointing 2nd halves of their season, South Carolina's fall was perhaps the worst. The Gamecocks raced to 6-1 and national prominence, losing only to LSU and beating Georgia and Kentucky along the way. Then came a stunning loss to Vanderbilt, and as the schedule remained tough they couldn't catch a break, losing tight games to Tennessee and Clemson and getting bombed by Arkansas (321 yards by McFadden and 166 by F. Jones) and plastered by Florida (Tebow 5 TDs rushing, 2 passing). Though bowl-eligible in just their seventh game, they didn't go anywhere post-season.

South Carolina 2008 schedule & forecast
8/28	Thu	vs.	North Carolina St.	80%	W
9/4	Thu	@	*Vanderbilt	64%	W
9/13	Sat	vs.	*Georgia	51%	W
9/20	Sat	vs.	Wofford	79%	W
9/27	Sat	vs.	UAB	91%	W
10/4	Sat	@	*Mississippi	62%	W
10/11	Sat	@	*Kentucky	54%	W
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Louisiana State	53%	W
11/1	Sat	vs.	*Tennessee	57%	W
11/8	Sat	vs.	*Arkansas	64%	W
11/15	Sat	@	*Florida	31%	L
11/29	Sat	@	Clemson	43%	L
Favored: 10-2  Projected: 7-5

What last year should have been, this year will probably be: a good season. Although the idea of playing Florida and Clemson on the road the last two games should keep enthusiasm in check, the Gamecocks could be 9-1 and highly ranked at the time. And with the Georgia game being played in Columbia, a really fantastic start is possible. But more realistically, that game can't be counted on, the LSU 'win' is questionable, and in the SEC a fifth loss can probably be found. With big questions at quarterback, the tough D can only be relied on to do so much. While South Carolina has little hope of an SEC title this year, they should at least have the 8-4 or 9-3 season that last year's team could have easily achieved.

15. Southern Cal Trojans     (pre-season AP #3, USA/Coaches #2)

2007 Results:    Record: 11-2    Bowl: beat Illinois 49-17 (Rose Bowl)    Poll finish: #3 AP  #2 USA
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #8     Success: #7     Combined: #6
There are a lot more questions on offense than most people are asking, and no reason why the problems of the last two seasons are going away. But the defense alone will beat most teams, and the Trojans are in position to make another national title run if they can beat Ohio State.
Offense (4 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #27   Adj. Rush Yards: #10    Adj. Pass Yards: #45
Mark Sanchez becomes the next chosen one on August 30th, or perhaps a week later given his recent knee incident. But Sanchez, who showed moments of brilliance along with some sophomore mistakes in his three starts last year, takes the reigns at quarterback and should do a fine job. Sanchez passed for 695 yards, 7 TDs and 5 INTs last year, and this season he should beat John David Booty's '07 numbers (63%, 2,361 yards, 23 TDs in 10 games). The spot is a nesting ground for Heisman candidates, and I think he'll be one by the 2009 season, but if he falters Arkansas transfer Mitch Mustain is a sound backup. They lose their top receiver, tight end Fred Davis (8 TDs) but return the next two, starters Patrick Turner (3 TDs) and Vidal Hazelton (4). The running game, too, loses its top gainer, Chauncey Washington (969 yards, 10 TDs), but again backups Stafon Johnson and Joe McKnight and several others are waiting their turn. The question is, can they do it behind a very inexperienced offensive line? Only one starter—guard Jeff Byers—is back, though many gained experience last year filling in for injured players. Nearly everyone expects them to be great by the end of the year, but the schedule is front-loaded: the first game is against Virginia, and the second one is Ohio State; how far will they have come by then? In short, any other team that lost its 2-year starting quarterback, top receiver and top running back, and four starters on the line, would be severely downgraded. USC is a special case in that they reload rather than rebuild, but they've managed to lose two games each of the last two years often to vastly inferior teams despite having the best talent, and this could be their most questionable offense in quite a while.
Defense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #3      Adj. Rush Def: #3     Adj. Pass Def: #9
There were really no problems on this side of the ball last year; every aspect of the defense performed well, last-minute TD passes by Stanford notwithstanding. Seniors Kyle Moore and Fili Moala return on the defensive line; the team had 45 sacks last year, and while the departing Lawrence Jackson and Sedrick Ellis combined for 19 of those, new starter Everson Griffin had 5.5 as a backup. The secondary loses Terrell Thomas (4 int.), but has Cary Harris, Kevin Ellison, and Taylor Mays, all of whom received some kind of post-season recognition, along with other experienced defenders. While the front line may be down a notch and it will be tough to repeat last year's sack totals and rushing yardage ranking, the secondary should be roughly as good as last year, and any deficiencies will be covered by the linebacking corps. All-American shoo-in Ray Maualuga (6 sacks) and candidate Brian Cushing return to the unit, with solid Kaluka Maiava on the weak side slot replacing first-round draft choice Keith Rivers. The USC defense is a shell game of future NFL players, and will again be one of the best in the country. It may make the difference in some of their tough early games.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Greg Woldneck isn't the greatest punter, averaging 37.9 yards, but he is mostly used to stick the opponent inside the 20, which he did 1/3 of the time. David Buehler made 16 of 19 fields and is also back.
Recruiting: The 2008 class was a devastating blow to USC—it ranked only #10 in the nation. Shocking, yes, for a team that had the #1 or #2 class for the last five years. The truth is that the Trojans are so stocked from the fat years this decade that they only recruited 19 players. Pete Carroll likes to play true freshmen, and has hinted that the offensive line will be bolstered by several '08 recruits, namely Khaled Holmes, Matt Kalil, Matt Meyer, and Tyron Smith. Another, Daniel Campbell, might have joined them but he didn't qualify this season.
2008 Season Outlook: 2007 was a lot like 2006. Water-cooler talk about the team wavered between "they're clearly the best in the country" to "what has happened to USC?" only to end on the former note with a big bowl win.

After the Trojans throttled Nebraska, 49-31, in a game that was neither as close as the final score, nor nearly as impressive at all in retrospect, there were articles extolling the '07 USC team as the best USC team ever. Just three games later, that talk looked as idiotic as it should have seemed to anyone who even watched the Leinart/Bush years, as Stanford pulled one of the biggest upsets in a season that was packed full of major ones. A weak win over Arizona with Sanchez at the helm further exposed some of the Trojans' deficiencies at the time, beyond Booty's hurt finger. Another 31+ point win over a sorry Notre Dame team followed, then a road loss to Oregon that was actually fairly impressive all things considered. They beat Oregon State and Cal but didn't dominate until thrashing Arizona State 44-24, and soon the "best team in the nation" talk came back. After dominating Illinois in the Rose Bowl, many though they were again the best team in 2007, though no one was saying "best team ever" anymore.

USC 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	@	Virginia	64%	W
9/13	Sat	vs.	Ohio State	34%	L
9/25	Thu	@	*Oregon State	59%	W
10/4	Sat	vs.	*Oregon	50%	W
10/11	Sat	vs.	*Arizona State	57%	W
10/18	Sat	@	*Washington State	64%	W
10/25	Sat	@	*Arizona	52%	W
11/1	Sat	vs.	*Washington	67%	W
11/8	Sat	vs.	*California	62%	W
11/15	Sat	@	*Stanford	64%	W
11/29	Sat	vs.	Notre Dame	73%	W
12/6	Sat	@	*UCLA	60%	W
Favored: 11-1  Projected: 7-5

With all the personnel losses on offense, I don't see how USC will be better than it has been the last two years. Each of the last two years the team has finished with two losses, and I expect that to happen again. Ignore the conservative cumulative projection, as there's little uncertaintly when it comes to USC winning in double digits. The big game—perhaps the biggest of the college football year from the pre-season vantage point—is the Ohio State game, and I expect the Trojans to lose at home. The Oregon contest is really anyone's game, or perhaps Arizona will be the surprise team that gets them.  With five bowl opponents to start the year, the schedule is heavy up front, and if the Trojans are 5-0 by mid-October, they will be a unanimous #1 and even I will be drinking the Kool-Aid. But if they start 2-2, listen for the familiar echos of "what's wrong with USC?" to be replaced once again by calls for them to be in the BCS championship game by the end of the year.

16. Auburn Tigers     (pre-season AP #10, USA/Coaches #11)

2007 Results:   Record: 9-4   Bowl: beat Clemson 23-20 OT (Chik-Fil-A)  Poll finish: #15 AP #14 USA
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #18    Success: #20    Combined: #19
Auburn has a new look on offense. With home games against LSU and Georgia, can they reach the SEC title game in '08?
Offense (8 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #67   Adj. Rush Yards: #35  Adj. Pass Yards: #95
Never let it be said that Tommy Tuberville is resistant to change. The Auburn head coach realized last season that the offense was stagnating, particularly the passing game, and the team was reliant on the defense to win games. He decided that a switch a spread offense was needed. But he didn't want to wait until the start of a new season, so he hired away Troy's offensive coordinator to implement the system in December, and used it in the Tigers' bowl game against Clemson! While the debut was mixed, the offense did enough to get a win, and the early implementation of the system will pay dividends this season. Soph Kodi Burns and/or JUCO transfer Chris Todd will replace last year's starting QB Brandon Cox. Burns is mobile as required, and Todd ran the same system in high school (and as a backup at Texas Tech). The new quarterback will be well-protected this year behind a young but experienced line; all five starters return—seniors Jason Bosley and Tyronne Green and three true sophomores. Additionally the two top receivers, Rodgeriqus Smith and Montez Billings, are back. Tailback Ben Tate (903 yards, 8 TDs) is ready to take advantage of the hardy O-line along with Brad Lester (530 yards). In short, the offense will be, as Tuberville has said, "fun to watch."
Defense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #2   Adj. Rush Def: #20    Adj. Pass Def: #3
Auburn has had staunch defenses for many years and '07 was no exception. The Tigers finished with the #2 scoring defense (adjusted for opposition) and were #3 against the pass. There are important losses in the front four, full-time starters Pat Sims and Josh Thompson (#1 tackler) as well as NFL draftee Quenton Groves; and in the secondary, Patrick Lee and Eric Brock are gone, plus projected starter Aairon Savage had knee surgery recently and is out. But the full stable of linebackers returns, led by Tray Blackmon, with Chris Evans having gained experience starting in place of Merrill Johnson when the latter was injured last season. Though neither the rushing nor passing rankings will likely match last year's, with Sen'Derrick Marks and Antonio Coleman back on the line and Zac Etheridge and Jerraud Powers in the secondary, this is still a very good defense.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Auburn has one of the best kicking games in the country, and this will be true for several years as all the key players were freshmen last year. Kicker Wes Byrum became famous for beating Florida with a clutch last-second field goal, and made 17 of 23 overall. Special teams is loaded with good punters. Last year Ryan Shoemaker and Patrick Tatum together averaged 42.7 yards per punt with a great 38.5 net, and newcomer Clinton Durst is pushing Shoemaker for the starting job.
Recruiting: The '07 class was in the top ten, and the '08 class was still in the top 25 despite two of its biggest prizes—DeRon Furr and Onterrio McCalebb—withdrawing and not qualifying respectively. With nearly 30 signees, there are many others who may help right away. Among them: Eric Smith, a running back who has impressed many this spring, and the aforementioned Todd, who was at Texas Tech and junior college for a year each before arriving in Auburn. DE Raven Grey, a JUCO who could have eased the loss of two NFL players from the line, has been injured and is redshirting this season. Tuberville noted that the change to the spread offense has helped recruiting, since young players like the style and Auburn is off to a very fast start for '09.
2008 Season Outlook: At the start of last season, sluggish win over Kansas State made fans wary. Then a stunning home loss to South Florida, followed by another to Mississippi State, sealed the deal: 2007 was going to be Auburn's worst season of the decade. 

But a great win at Florida, plus a strong defensive performance in beating Arkansas on the road, and the Tigers were back at 5-2. Though a late pass sunk the team against LSU, and later Georgia dominated them, they beat Alabama and finished 8-4, and everyone knew things could have been a lot worse. Edging Clemson in the tradition-laden Chik-Fil-A bowl was just icing.

Auburn 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Louisiana-Monroe	81%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	Southern Mississippi	76%	W
9/13	Sat	@	*Mississippi State	57%	W
9/20	Sat	vs.	*Louisiana State	53%	W
9/27	Sat	vs.	*Tennessee	57%	W
10/4	Sat	@	*Vanderbilt	64%	W
10/11	Sat	vs.	*Arkansas	64%	W
10/23	Thu	@	West Virginia	39%	L
11/1	Sat	@	*Mississippi	62%	W
11/8	Sat	vs.	Tennessee-Martin	98%	W
11/15	Sat	vs.	*Georgia	49%	L
11/29	Sat	@	*Alabama	51%	W
Favored: 10-2  Projected: 7-5

2008 might run counter to 2007. After home wins over LSU and Tennessee, the Tigers could be 7-0 going into West Virginia. They probably won't emerge victorious, and with final games against Georgia and at Alabama, the season could end on a down note. Give back LSU and Tennessee or any of the other SEC teams looking to pull an upset, and they could sink to 7-5 pretty easily. But on the upside, win those two final games and they're in the SEC title game. While not playing Florida was a schedule boon this year, playing a road game vs. West Virginia is hardly a good thing. Auburn looks headed for an 8-4 or 9-3 season, but if the ball bounces their way a couple times they're looking at a possible BCS bowl.

2008 pre-season rankings: #17 Penn State; #18 Arizona State; #19 UConn

SportsRatings is ranking all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August until the season begins. These rankings are meant to reflect how good the teams might be in 2008 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for each team, and two projected records are given: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and another cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty in the predictions. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. (Schedule listings adapted from James Howell's site)

This installment covers teams from #17 to #19. To see the full list, click here.

17. Penn State Nittany Lions     (pre-season AP #22; USA/Coaches #22)

2007 Results:  Record: 9-4  Bowl: beat Texas A&M 24-17 (Alamo Bowl)  Poll finish: #26 AP  #27 USA 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #20    Success: #35    Combined: #24
At the end of last season, Penn State looked like a potential top ten team for '08. Then the loss of Sean Lee to an ACL tear and several off-field incidents have moved them down the tightly-contested 2nd ten. Still, they're the #2 team in the Big Ten.
Offense (8 RS)   '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #31    Adj. Rush Yards: #19    Adj. Pass Yards: #70
The good news: the offensive line will be dominant. Five starters are back, including All-American candidate A.Q. Shipley at center, though they might not all be on the field at the same time as super soph Stefen Wisniewski will take over at right guard. Two starting receivers are back, Deon Butler and Derrick Williams, as well as #3 Jordan Norwood, as the Lions go back to the spread (in one of the off-season debacles, backup Chris Bell was kicked off the team for threatening a teammate with a knife). The questions, then, are at quarterback and running back. Anthony Morelli was not well-liked, especially following Michael Robinson, but he had competent stats, 2,651 yards and 19 TDs against 10 interceptions; new QB Daryll Clark can run and should do well in the option style, but he's unproven. Rodney Kinslaw rushed for 1,329 yards and 10 TDs; backup Evan Royster is a good replacement, having rushed for over 500 yards (5 TDs) with a 6.3 average last season. Tight end Andrew Quarless is back on the team, though not starting yet. Quarless had a DUI and was suspended during the spring; let back on the team, he was awaiting grades and recently was cited for underage drinking. It appears that his summer grades were okay.
Defense (8 RS)      '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #17    Adj. Rush Def: #8        Adj. Pass Def: #86
The defense is where the majority of the back luck hit the Lions in the off-season. First Sean Lee's ACL tear means the Lions lose two all-star linebackers, Lee and Dan Conner, the team's top tacklers who combined for 25 tackles-for-loss (10 sacks) and 14 broken-up passes. The defensive line is even a worse case: set to return even more complete the offensive line, instead Phillip Taylor and Chris Baker, who make up one defensive tackle spot, were kicked off the team for involvement in on-campus fights; backup Knowledge Timmons and linebacker Navorro Bowman were suspended but allowed to return. The unluckiest Lion has to be backup DE Devon Still: after sitting out '07 due to an ACL tear, he broke his leg in the summer, and he was also the one threatened by receiver Bell's knife. All of this still leaves the defensive front stacked, with all-Big 10 Maurice Evans (12.5 sacks) the anchor at end, Josh Gaines the other end, and Jared Odrick and Ollie Ogbu back at tackle. The secondary was the weakest area last year, but lots of experience returns and has avoided major off-season trouble. Seniors Anthony Scirrotto, Lydell Sargeant, and Tony Davis return, while part-time starters A.J. Wallace and Mark Rubin fill in the gaps and add depth. This Penn State defense, already strong last season, could have been staggering if not for the injuries and off-field issue, but should still be solid despite them.
Kicking Game (2 RS): The kicking game is in great shape heading into the fall, with punter Jeremy Boon back (43 ave, 39.4 net) along with kicker Kevin Kelley (20-26 FG). Kelley was only 2 of 8 outside the 40, but it's not for lack of leg strength, as he hit a 53-yarder and had touchbacks on over 1/4 of his kickoffs.
Recruiting: Is JoePa's continued stay affecting recruiting? Normally Penn State is in the top 25 in recruiting, but this year's class was outside the top 40. Most of that is attributed to the fact that the class is small, just 14 players, and the Lions go for quality rather than quantity. They got some talented guys named Mike at linebacker: Mauti, Yancich, and Zordich. From last year's class, Josh Marks was expected to step into a backup role immediately on the offensive line, but he left the team. Instead tight end Andrew Szczerba might be the big new name from the '07 class, especially if Quarless has any more issues come up. Paterno rarely plays true freshmen, and this year is no exception, with just running back Brandon Beachum and linebacker Mauti on the depth chart.
2008 Season Outlook: PSU had an unsatisfying 2007, where they won a lot of games but lost the big ones. Florida International, Notre Dame, and Buffalo provided little resistance, as well as little preparation for Michigan and Illinois, both of whom beat the Lions. Penn State's best game of the year was their 38-7 whitewashing of Wisconsin, but they lost to Ohio State 37-17 at home. They were 8-3 going into Lansing, but were upset by the Spartans, 35-31 in a game they led 24-7. The Lions beat Texas A&M to finish with nine wins, but lost only one game by more than a touchdown and felt they should have done better.

Penn State 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Coastal Carolina	96%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	Oregon State	63%	W
9/13	Sat	@	Syracuse	75%	W
9/20	Sat	vs.	Temple	76%	W
9/27	Sat	vs.	*Illinois	61%	W
10/4	Sat	@	*Purdue	59%	W
10/11	Sat	@	*Wisconsin	51%	W
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Michigan	59%	W
10/25	Sat	@	*Ohio State	25%	L
11/8	Sat	@	*Iowa	59%	W
11/15	Sat	vs.	*Indiana	69%	W
11/22	Sat	vs.	*Michigan State	61%	W
Favored: 11-1  Projected: 8-4

This season looks good for the Lions. With most of the Big Ten in a middling condition, this is a great year to be one of the conference's toughest. The road game at Wisconsin is the only major barrier to finishing 11-1 (12-0 is out due to playing the Buckeyes on the road). The 8-4 projection is conservative and represents worst case, and 9-3 or 10-2 seem likeliest allowing for a few slip-ups. If the team had stayed injury- and trouble-free, they could have made a run at it this season. Even so, if Ohio State makes it to the BCS game again, it should be Penn State in the Rose Bowl, as they are well ahead of the next-best teams in the conference.

18. Arizona State Sun Devils     (pre-season AP #15, USA-coaches #15)

2007 Results:    Record: 10-3   Bowl: lost to Texas 52-34 (Holiday Bowl) Poll finish: #14 AP  #14 USA 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #16    Success: #13    Combined: #14
ASU has some weaknesses, but overall they'll be a tough opponent again.
Offense (6 RS)     '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #25    Adj. Rush Yards: #50    Adj. Pass Yards: #33
Rudy Carpenter has been around for a while, as a backup/replacement for Sam Keller, as a starter, and in two different coaches and systems. Last season he emerged as not just a great talent but a consistent one, too, throwing for over 3,000 yards with 25 TDs and just 10 interceptions while leading the team to an 8-0 start and several big come-from-behind wins. This year he could be a Heisman candidate, though the field is crowded in '08. Top receivers Michael Jones (10 TDs) and Chris McGaha (830 yards) are back, plus Kyle Williams (6 TDs), but the big question is the the offensive line, which had to replace three starters from '07 and recently lost one of the new starters, 350-lb right tackle Richard Tuitu'u. The line allowed 55 sacks last season, 2nd most in the NCAA, and Carpenter suffered an injured thumb which hampered him in later games. RB Keegan Herring managed 815 yards and Dmitri Nance had 7 TDs, so the running game is not hopeless but again the line is an issue. Tight end could have been a trouble spot; starter Brent Miller is gone, and his replacement Dane Guthrie left the team along with backup Lance Evbuomwan, but the position is deep, and ASU might not use a tight end much this year, hoping that loading the field with receivers will allow Carpenter to get rid of the ball quicker and avoid the sack.
Defense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #20    Adj. Rush Def: #7    Adj. Pass Def: #41
There are fewer questions on defense. Three starters led by Dexter Davis (10.5 sacks) and Luis Vasquez (4.5) return to the front four, which jammed the run last year holding six opponents to 100 or fewer yards (no team rushed for over 200 until Texas had 300 during the Holiday Bowl). They're solid at linebacker, too, despite the loss of #1 tackler Robert James. Travis Goethel and Morris Wooten return, with Mike Nixon and other experienced players back as well. Two standouts return in the secondary, Omar Bolden at corner and free safety Troy Nolan (6 INT), though they'll miss NFL draftee Justin Tryon's 16 pass break-ups. Strong safety Josh Barrett, too, was drafted, and backup Jeremy Payton, a potential replacement, left the team. But overall the defense, which was strong last season, looks even better this year.
Kicking Game ('2' RS): Thomas Weber is perhaps the best kicker in college football; he hit 24 of 25 field goals last season and won the Lou Groza award. As a punter he isn't as great, but still took over the spot last year and averaged around 40 yards a kick. He is one of the Sun Devils' most important returning players.
Recruiting: Dennis Erickson's 2008 class was a big improvement over the transitional 2007 class; the latter ranked around #40, while this year's crop is in the top 25. Better yet, two recruits that had committed to Arizona changed to ASU: top running back Ryan Bass and receiver Gerell Robinson. A third, WR Jarrell Barbour, did the same but didn't qualify and is heading to junior college.
2008 Season Outlook: ASU jumped to an 8-0 record last year, fueled by big comebacks. Against Colorado they fell behind 14-0 in the first quarter but came roaring back to win, 33-14. At home vs. Oregon State, once again they were down in the 1st quarter, this time 19-0; ASU finally took the lead at the end of the 3rd quarter and coasted to a 44-32 victory. After bashing Stanford 41-3, the Sun Devils had much more trouble with resilient Washington State and needed a last-minute Weber field goal to win 23-20. They didn't take the lead for good until the 2nd half against Washington but won 44-20. And Cal had them down 20-7 in the first half; again ASU rallied and won, 31-20. Suffering their first loss to Oregon, and with Carpenter slowed by injury, the team lost its magic. One more rally against UCLA (from 10-0 down) was all they had left; they were crushed by USC, 44-24, and barely stayed ahead of rival Arizona 20-17, before losing control of the bowl game against Texas, 52-34. 

ASU 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Northern Arizona	87%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	*Stanford	68%	W
9/13	Sat	vs.	Nevada-Las Vegas	77%	W
9/20	Sat	vs.	Georgia	46%	L
10/4	Sat	@	*California	52%	W
10/11	Sat	@	*Southern California	44%	L
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Oregon	45%	L
10/25	Sat	@	*Oregon State	56%	W
11/8	Sat	@	*Washington	57%	W
11/15	Sat	vs.	*Washington State	68%	W
11/28	Fri	vs.	*UCLA	64%	W
12/6	Sat	@	*Arizona	49%	L
Favored: 8-4  Projected: 7-5

The schedule is a big tougher this year. The Sun Devils play seven home games, down from eight(!) last season. But one of those is Georgia, a daunting task. Though they could squeak past Cal on the road, USC is a different matter, as is Oregon at home. They could win out past that, but the Arizona game in Tuscon is the critical one. Win that and they could be 9-3, but more likely they finish 8-4 this year; lose to Cal (or some other upset) and 7-5 is on the table, too. The Sun Devils are still strong, but the offensive line is a big issue, as is overall depth. The success Dennis Erickson had last season should have momentum through recruiting and keep the program strong for years to come, however.

19. Connecticut Huskies

2007 Results:  Record: 9-4  Bowl: L to Wake Forest 24-10 (Meineke Bowl) Poll finish: #37 AP #33 USA
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #38    Success: #28    Combined: #35
The Huskies have an even better team than last year, but a tougher schedule. Perhaps that's why they aren't getting any national respect, despite returning 17 starters?
Offense (9 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #61     Adj. Rush Yards: #49    Adj. Pass Yards: #99
The offense returns almost complete, and loaded. QB Tyler Lorenzen ran the team well last year, throwing for 13 TDs against only 6 interceptions, while racking up a decent 2,367 yards. He was also the team's third leading rusher on an offense that never really wowed people, but did just enough to got the job done. Running backs Andre Dixon (828 yards) and Donald Brown (821) traded starts last year based on who was healthy, playing well, etc. at the moment, and both are back. The offensive line loses just one starter, with a wealth of new talent looking to push the returnees. The only blip is in the receiving corps, where the top five pass catchers were back until the #1, Terence Jeffers transferred. Still, that leaves Brad Kanuch, DJ Hernandez, tight end Steve Brouse, and Dixon, who along with some eager newcomers should more than pick up the slack.
Defense (8 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #18    Adj. Rush Def: #80       Adj. Pass Def: #33
Top ten in turnover margin, and nearly top ten in red zone defense; that's how a team ranked so low against the run and so bland against the pass can rank #18 in adjusted scoring defense. But they'd like the yardage numbers to be better, I'm sure, and with three starters back on the front four, that's a good possibility this season; ends Julius Williams and Cody Brown had 16 sacks between them. Three starters—Lawrence Wilson, Scott Lutrus, and Dahna Deleston—fill the linebacking corps, and all had over 100 tackles last year. They lose #1 tackler Danny Lansanah but move Deleston in from safety, which creates one of two holes in the secondary, the other being NFL draftee Tyvon Branch. The two returnees are corner Darius Butler and free safety Robert Vaughn, who had seven interceptions last season. The pass defense should still be good, and if it falters I assume they can move Deleston back into the secondary.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Desi Cullen, an adequate punter, returns, as does kicker Tony Ciaravino. The latter missed only 5 of 27 field goal attempts, with three of the misses from over 50 yards.
Recruiting: Connecticut has only been Division I-A since 2000, and Randy Edsall arrived a year before that. Now in a major conference, recruiting is still tough for the relatively young I-A program, and UConn finishes outside the top 60 most years, as is the case for the last two classes. And one of their biggest recruiting scores ever, 2007 linebacker Jerrell Miller, recently left the school after redshirting last season. But there are more positives than negatives among the young talent. Redshirt freshmen Kashif Moore and Isaiah Moore are competing—along with true frosh Brian Parker, Gerrard Sheppard, and Michael Smith—for playing time at wide receiver. And on the offensive line, true freshman Jimmy Bennett, or redshirts Mike Ryan, Gary Bardzak, and Moe Petrus (from Canada) could win the open guard spot, or even depose a returning starter.
2008 Season Outlook: What a turnaround UConn took in 2007. From 4-8, the team reversed its fortunes in a single year. The schedule played an important part; the Huskies raced to 5-0 by beating Duke, Maine, Temple, Akron, and Pitt. Their fifth non-conference game was against Virginia, and they lost it 17-16. A blown call on a punt fair catch helped them beat Louisville, and the Huskies scored big wins against South Florida and Rutgers, but fell to Cincinnati. By this time, the country had gotten sick of the Big East upstarts, and disrespected the league as a whole. It didn't help UConn's cause that West Virginia swamped them, 66-21, at the season's end. They lost to Wake in a boring bowl game, but despite the anticlimactic finish, the season was an amazing success.

UConn 2008 schedule & forecast
8/28	Thu	vs.	Hofstra	81%	W
9/6	Sat	@	Temple	69%	W
9/13	Sat	vs.	Virginia	68%	W
9/19	Fri	vs.	Baylor	77%	W
9/27	Sat	@	*Louisville	63%	W
10/4	Sat	@	North Carolina	52%	W
10/18	Sat	@	*Rutgers	49%	L
10/25	Sat	vs.	*Cincinnati	55%	W
11/1	Sat	vs.	*West Virginia	43%	L
11/15	Sat	@	*Syracuse	75%	W
11/22	Sat	@	*South Florida	33%	L
12/6	Sat	vs.	*Pittsburgh	56%	W
Favored: 9-3  Projected: 7-5

The schedule isn't as favorable this year. Temple is much improved, and North Carolina and Baylor replace Duke and Akron. Even Hofstra is a step up from Maine. But the Huskies are much improved, too, and can handle the upgraded schedule and repeat last year's 9-3 regular season. There's even a close loss to Rutgers that could be a 10th win. But some iffy wins, like at North Carolina and Cincinnati, could push them toward the projected 7-5. I'll compromise at 8-4, and with a bowl win they'll match last season's final tally.

2008 pre-season rankings: #20 Tennessee; #21 Cincinnati; #22 BYU

SportsRatings is ranking all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August until the season begins. These rankings are meant to reflect how good the teams might be in 2008 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for each team, and two projected records are given: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and another cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty in the predictions. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. (Schedule listings adapted from James Howell's site)

This installment covers teams from #20 to #22. To see the full list, click here.

20. Tennessee Volunteers     (pre-season AP #18, USA-coaches #18)

2007 Results:  Record: 10-4   Bowl: beat Wisconsin 21-17 (Outback) Poll finish: #12 AP  #12 USA 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #23    Success: #8    Combined: #18
The Vols are poised to have another successful year; how will they do in the logjammed SEC?
Offense (8 RS)     '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #21    Adj. Rush Yards: #54    Adj. Pass Yards: #22
If Tennessee uncovers even a moderately good quarterback, the offense is ready to shine. Four full-time starters return on the line, including standouts Anthony Parker at guard (a 2-year starter and All-American candidate) and tackle Chris Scott. With Ramon Foster at right tackle, Josh McNeil at center, and Jacques McLendon (a half-time starter last year) at right guard, this one of the best offensive lines in the nation. Arian Foster leads the charge in the running game, coming off a 1,193 yard, 12 TD season; backup Montario Hardesty's ankle is healthy this year, too. The three top receivers return: 1,000 yard receiver (yes, exactly 1,000 yards) Lucas Taylor (5 TDs), Austin Rogers (4 TDs), and Josh Briscoe (6). At tight end Chris Brown is gone, as is Brad Cottam, and Cottam's brother Jeff is out for half the season due to back surgery; but just in time, FSU transfer Brandon Warren has been declared eligible to play. The only one who can't be easily replaced is Eric Ainge, Tennessee's quarterback of the last four years (full-time the last two). His 31 TDs and 3,500 yards were crucial to the Vols' success last season, and thus far backup Jonathan Crompton hasn't shown much. He'll have a chance to prove the naysayers wrong behind a line that allowed just 4 sacks all last year, but even should he prove mediocre, as long as he avoids big mistakes he'll do a service to the team.
Defense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #45    Adj. Rush Def: #31    Adj. Pass Def: #99
The defensive line loses two starters, but still looks solid: tackles Dan Williams and Demonte Bolden return, and end Robert Ayers is just as good. The other end, sophomore Ben Martin, has yet to live up to his recruiting buzz but is a starter now, so he must be doing something right. Only one starter returns at linebacker, however; team leading tackler Jerod Mayo and Ryan Karl depart, but #2 tackler Rico McCoy is back. The secondary is loaded and you need a scorecard to keep track of the players.  Brent Vinson and Eric Berry (5 int.) were both starters as true freshmen. DeAngelo Willingham started 1/2 of last year's games, as did Marsalous Johnson before his year ended in injury. Antonio Gaines also began 2007 as a starter and was injured, while Demetrice Morley started in '06 but was ineligible last season. All this talent should vastly improve the Vols' poor passing defense stats, and overall, though they lose 4 of their top 6 tacklers from last season, the D will be as good or better in '08.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Daniel Lincoln is a talented kicker but was streaky his freshman year, hitting 21 of 29 field goals last season. Punter Brent Colquitt returns for his senior year after averaging a good 41.6 (and a very good 36.7 net). But Colquitt is suspended for the first five games of the season (DUI) allowing soph Chad Cunningham an early audition for next year's starting role.
Recruiting: Phil Fulmer's 2007 class was one of the nation's best, behind just Florida and USC. The 2008 class was only #36, but you can't win 'em all. Of course, after recruiting over 30 players in 2007 they took less than 20 this time around, featuring running back Austin Johnson and JUCO linebacker Gerald Williams, who was still awaiting course grades days before the opener.
2008 Season Outlook: In the end 2007 was another season that wasn't quite good enough. It didn't help that the Volunteers started 1-2, and were trounced by Florida 59-20. Getting back on track with a win over Georgia, 35-14, they lost momentum at Alabama, 41-17. At 4-3 the team was written off by most in the SEC race, but UT reeled off five straight wins, two of them in overtime and one by a point, to make it to the SEC title game. There they battled LSU valiently but lost, 21-14. They withstood a late Wisconsin charge in the Outback bowl and won, 21-17, to have another 10 win season, their fourth this decade. 

Tennessee 2008 schedule & forecast
9/1	Mon	@	UCLA	53%	W
9/13	Sat	vs.	Alabama-Birmingham	86%	W
9/20	Sat	vs.	*Florida	33%	L
9/27	Sat	@	*Auburn	41%	L
10/4	Sat	vs.	Northern Illinois	82%	W
10/11	Sat	@	*Georgia	38%	L
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi State	61%	W
10/25	Sat	vs.	*Alabama	52%	W
11/1	Sat	@	*South Carolina	43%	L
11/8	Sat	vs.	Wyoming	73%	W
11/22	Sat	@	*Vanderbilt	60%	W
11/29	Sat	vs.	*Kentucky	58%	W
Favored: 8-4  Projected: 7-5

This year the SEC is once again pretty tough. And Tennessee isn't quite one of the elite teams. Florida at home, Auburn and Georgia on the road, and South Carolina on the road may be losses. Alabama at home could give them another loss and put them 7-5, but I think 8-4 is likely. That would mean 4-4 in conference play, which won't put them in the title game, so repeating 10 wins might be prohibitive. What would change that is excellent quarterback play—then it might all come together, and who knows what could happen?

21. Cincinnati Bearcats

2007 Results:   Record: 10-3   Bowl: beat S. Miss 31-21 (Papajohns.com)  Poll finish: #17 AP #20 USA
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #12    Success: #18    Combined: #12
Cincy moves on without Ben Mauk, but the rest of the team was good last year, too.
Offense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #15   Adj. Rush Yards: #82  Adj. Pass Yards: #13
Will he return? Will he ever give it up? Those were the off-season questions for the Bearcats. Last year's superstar, Ben Mauk (3,121 yards, 31 TDs) appealed to the NCAA for a 6th year of eligibility; denied, he tried a different appeal; denied again, he appealed the denial; denied yet again, he sued the NCAA. A judge told them to work it out, and the NCAA denied him one more time before saying that was a mistake and they were still considering it. Psyche! They denied him again days later. At this point it's assumed he won't play for the 'Cats again, which is too bad—with him, they'd be ranked several slots higher. But don't shortchange Dustin Grutza, who takes over the offense. He started for two seasons before Mauk arrived, and though he didn't dazzle back then, he was in a completely different system. His limited playing time last year showed potential (71% complete, 4 TDs, 0 INTs), and he's very familiar with his teammates. Some figured Demetrius Jones would win the QB spot, but he was recovering from an injury, and frankly—high school touting notwithstanding—he sucked in his one start at Notre Dame. Don't expect Ben Mauk II from Grutza but he should be okay. As for the rest of the offense, the starting receivers are all back and ready—Dominick Goodman (8 TDs) and Marcus Barnett (13 TDs) both had over 800 receiving yards while Marshwan Gilyard added 536. The slimmed-down-for-speed offensive line is in pretty good shape with three starters back and full-time starter from '06, Jeff Linkenback, returning this year. The running game was meager last season and loses the top two backs. Mauk came within a yard of being the #1 rusher sans sack totals; if he manages to return, he'll give the rushing totals a boost, too!
Defense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #15   Adj. Rush Def: #13    Adj. Pass Def: #113
The Bearcat defense was stingy on points and against the run in '07, but gave up a lot of passing yards, 8th most in the NCAA, to be exact, when adjusted for opposition. Why this didn't translate into a lot of points for their opponents was due to their 26 interceptions, best in the country. They were also top 10 in total sacks. So their dismal yardage ranking above is misleading—the defense was solid across all areas when it counted. This season they return two starters from each section of their 4-3. Terrill Byrd (8 sacks) and Adam Hoppel (4) on the line; Ryan Manalac (#3 tackler) and Corey Smith (#2) at linebacker; another Smith, DeAngelo (8 interceptions), and Mike Mickens (6) in the secondary, both at corner. The big losses are #1 tackler Haruki Nakamura and Anthony Williams, both at safety, and Anthony Hoke (13 sacks) up front. The gaps at safety are a concern, but with their interception kings back at corner, the bend-don't-break pass defense should improve on its yardage numbers while the rushing defense will still be solid.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Punter Ken Huber was best in the country last year, both raw average (46.9) and net (39.6), placing over 1/3 of his punts inside the 20. Jake Rodgers is a less accomplished kicker, but he should improve in his sophomore year.
Recruiting: Brian Kelly has dramatically improved recruiting at basketball-first Cincinnati, with the 2008 class ranking above average for the country. This year's star may be Isaiah Pead, who could start at running back where they need help. Receiver D.J. Woods appears to be okay after having a medical scare that held him out of practice for a while.
2008 Season Outlook: The 'Cats started with a bang last year, crushing their first two opponents 59-3 and 34-3, the latter being Oregon State, who finished 9-4. The blowouts continued, and they were 6-0 after beating Rutgers 28-23 on the road. Like the other undefeated Big East teams at the time, they hit the skids for a bit, losing to Louisville 28-24 and at Pitt, 24-17, and most of the country wrote them off as overrated, not legit because of their conference, etc. They bounced back to beat South Florida and Connecticut, but since those teams were tagged with the same "flash in the pan" label, few cared. Their 28-23 loss to West Virginia meant all 3 of their losses were within a touchdown. Consigned to a minor bowl, they went through the motions and beat Southern Miss unimpressively, 31-21, in the tradition-heavy Pappajohns.com Bowl. They did get some respect, though, in the form of a post-season top 25 ranking.

Cincinnati 2008 schedule & forecast
8/28	Thu	vs.	Eastern Kentucky	85%	W
9/6	Sat	@	Oklahoma	33%	L
9/20	Sat	vs.	Miami (Ohio)	74%	W
9/27	Sat	@	Akron	73%	W
10/3	Fri	@	Marshall	69%	W
10/11	Sat	vs.	*Rutgers	56%	W
10/25	Sat	@	*Connecticut	46%	L
10/30	Thu	vs.	*South Florida	39%	L
11/8	Sat	@	*West Virginia	35%	L
11/14	Fri	@	*Louisville	62%	W
11/22	Sat	vs.	*Pittsburgh	55%	W
11/29	Sat	vs.	*Syracuse	81%	W
12/6	Sat	@	Hawaii	63%	W
Favored: 9-4  Projected: 8-5

This year the Bearcats play 13 games, one of them being an unfortunate road game at Oklahoma. Though it's a great thing for college football and an opportunity to get some real respect, if they lose it will be another lazy argument for "the Big East is weak" and they probably won't win in Norman. They've also got a logjam of games against the Big East's best in late October/early November, then four games they should win. Though I don't see any especially weak wins, I might have to go with the cumulative projections since they lose their star quarterback. 8-5 is certainly a lot more likely than 10-3. If Mauk returns, we can talk about 10-3.

22. Brigham Young Cougars     (pre-season AP #16, USA-coaches #17)

2007 Results:   Record: 11-2   Bowl: beat UCLA 17-16 (Las Vegas Bowl) Poll finish: #14 AP  #14 USA 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #25    Success: #17    Combined: #23
BYU is in the hunt for the Mountain West title, and possibly for a BCS berth, but a weakened defense might be their achilles' heel.
Offense (9 RS)     '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #39    Adj. Rush Yards: #58    Adj. Pass Yards: #10
The Cougar offense returns nearly intact from 2007 for all intents and purposes, losing center Sete Aulai and two part-time starters at receiver and running back. Four monstrous starters—all 330 lbs.—return on the offensive line, led by guard Ray Feinga and tackle Dallas Reynolds. The running game, fairly average last season, returns a well-above-average back, Harvey Unga (1,227 yards and 13 TDs) but backup Manese Tonga (8 TDs) is ineligible this season. Along with Unga, tight end Dennis Pitta (813 yds, 5 TDs) and receivers Austin Collie (946 yds, 8 TDs) and Michael Reed (4 TDs) are BYU's four top receivers from '07, all back for '08. Throwing to them once again will be quarterback Max Hall (3,848 yards, 26 TDs, 12 INT). Behind the huge, experienced line, the talented offense will once again flourish.
Defense (3 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #22    Adj. Rush Def: #5    Adj. Pass Def: #23
The Cougar defense was one of the most underrated in 2008. They shut down the run and while the teams they played were often pass-happy, they typically had much less success against the Cougars. This year there are quite a few losses. The excellent rush defense might be the least affected; two of the starters in the front three are back, ends Ian Dulan and Jan Jorgensen (13.5 sacks!), and Russell Tialavea is back from an injury last year at nose tackle. One of four linebackers in the 3-4 returns, David Nixon; gone are the team's two top tacklers from last year, Kelly Poppinga and Bryan Kehl. The worst situation is the secondary, as no starters are back. Put another way, BYU hauled in 16 interceptions last year; only one player who intercepted a single pass is back on the defense. Senior free safety Kellen Fowley did start a few games last year, so he is the most experienced of the corps. I expect BYU's excellent yardage stats from last season to take a hit; though the rushing stats won't be in the top ten, they should still be okay, but the passing stats are anybody's guess.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Adequate punter C.J. Santiago returns, as does kicker Mitch Payne, but for Payne adequate might not be good enough as the Cougars bring in one of the top-rated freshman kickers in the country, Justin Sorensen. Sorensen has a much stronger leg and should at a minimum take over kickoffs and longer-range field goals.
Recruiting: BYU recruiting is an interesting case; players go on Morman missions, then return, so many are much older than normal for the NCAA. Many recruits come from the South Pacific, and year-to-year there can be big fluctuations in a class' quality. The last few years have been slightly above average (2007) and slightly below average (2008). This year several JUCO transfers pad the linebacking corps, while two redshirts from '07 (Jordan Pendleton and G Pittman) will help out in the depleted secondary.
2008 Season Outlook: 2007 was nearly 2006 redux. Start out 1-2. Win ten straight and claim the Mountain West title. Beat a Pac-10 team in the Las Vegas Bowl. The details were different, though; the Cougars beat Arizona and lost to Tulsa this time around, and had a much tougher time in the bowl game, beating a team they'd lost to earlier in the year. While BYU's win streaks are impressive, they have the adverse effect of adding to the perception that the BCS conferences are far superior to others in Division I-A. During their two 11-2 season, the Cougars are 16-0 against Mountain West opponents, and just 3-3 against the BCS (3-2 against the Pac-10).

BYU 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Northern Iowa	66%	W
9/6	Sat	@	Washington	56%	W
9/13	Sat	vs.	UCLA	63%	W
9/20	Sat	vs.	*Wyoming	72%	W
10/3	Fri	@	Utah State	74%	W
10/11	Sat	vs.	*New Mexico	71%	W
10/16	Thu	@	*Texas Christian	54%	W
10/25	Sat	vs.	*Nevada-Las Vegas	74%	W
11/1	Sat	@	*Colorado State	70%	W
11/8	Sat	vs.	*San Diego State	79%	W
11/15	Sat	@	*Air Force	69%	W
11/22	Sat	@	*Utah	47%	L
Favored: 11-1  Projected: 8-4

This year there are two Pac-10 teams on the regular season schedule, and I think BYU will beat both of them, including UCLA in the rubber match at home. Their other non-conf games are creampuff Utah State and I-AA Northern Iowa, who is probably the 5th best team on the Cougar's slate, but they play in Provo. Then after clearing out the Mountain West once again, the Cougars face Utah, in Salt Lake City, and get their first loss for an 11-1 record. That's by the book; there could be upsets along the way, and they might drop a few early games again. But 8-4 is probably as poorly as they could do, defensive questions notwithstanding. If the D comes together the way the offense surely should, then the Cougars will probably have another 11-2 year, one way or another. But I think the defense is too questionable for them to go undefeated. Look for lots of wins, with high scores on both sides.

2008 pre-season rankings: #23 Alabama; #24 Utah; #25 Maryland

SportsRatings is ranking all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August until the season begins. These rankings are meant to reflect how good the teams might be in 2008 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for each team, and two projected records are given: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and another cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty in the predictions. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. (Schedule listings adapted from James Howell's site)

This installment covers teams from #23 to #25. To see the full list, click here.

23. Alabama Crimson Tide     (pre-season AP #24)

2007 Results:    Record: 7-6   Bowl: beat Colorado 30-24 (Independence Bowl)    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #34    Success: #37    Combined: #33
The Tide have enough returning talent, and incoming talent, to help them erase the memories of a discordant first year with head coach Nick Saban.
Offense (9 RS)     '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #45    Adj. Rush Yards: #53    Adj. Pass Yards: #50
Last year's Tide offense was pretty bland at everything. Scoring, rushing, passing, all were slightly above-average for the nation, but that doesn't cut it in the SEC. John Parker Wilson led a decent passing game, throwing for 2,846 yards and 18 TDs. He even had a 1,000 yard receiver (D.J. Hall) to look for, but no more. He still has starters Mike McCoy at WR and tight ends Nick Walker and Travis McCall back, but those lost account for 13 TDs. Luckily, help is one the way from the freshman class in the form of top-ranked receiver Julio Jones. The running game was mediocre too but should improve a lot, as everyone is back led by sophomore Terry Grant (891 yards, 8 TDs), who could have a breakout season if injury-free. The O-line returns four starters led by tackle Andre Smith and should ensure improvement in both the rushing and passing game.
Defense (5 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #28    Adj. Rush Def: #16    Adj. Pass Def: #80
The defensive side of the equation is a bit more complicated. The rushing defense was solid last year in the 3-4, and two of those starters are back on the line, Brandon Deaderick and Lorenzon Washington. They lose a key component in stopping the run and the pass: Wallace Gilberry was the team's #2 tackler and had 27 tackles for loss, with 10 of those being quarterback sacks. The situation is just as mixed at linebacker. They looked pretty well set before the spring, with Rolando McClain back from a great freshman year, Ezekial Knight and Prince Hall returning, and frosh star Jerrell Harris and ex-RB Jimmy Johns joining the corps. But then Hall was suspended, Johns was kicked off the team, and Knight was medically disqualified due to a heart condition. Hall will be back after the first three games, however. In the secondary, corner Kareem Jackson and #1 tackler Rashad Johnson (6 int.) return, but key backup Lionel Mitchell recently left due to back problems. 
Kicking Game (2 RS): Punter P.J. Fitzgerald is back after a mediocre '07 (38.7 ave) and kicker Leigh Tiffin returns, too. Tiffin missed 9 field goals last year, but that's largely because he has a good range so the attempt is worth it; he was 10 of 15 beyond the 40.
Recruiting: Alabama's 2008 class got a lot of press and praise. Heralded unanimously as the top class in the country, it had both quality and numbers, and it's a big reason for the Tide's higher pre-season ranking. A slew of true freshmen will help out in a number of areas. At linebacker, Don'ta Hightower may start at linebacker in addition to Harris, putting two true freshman with sophomore McClain. In the secondary Robert Lester and Alonzo Lawrence could jump in right away. Tyler Love has been slated for action or possible start on the offensive line. But the biggest score was at receiver, where five-star recruit Julio Jones is expected to shine. In fact, the class is full of great receivers, but several of them are already gone: Destin Hood and Melvin Ray signed to play baseball, and Devonta Bolton is headed for junior college (as is defensive end recruit Brandon Lewis). These losses have dropped the class in my estimation to #2 behind Notre Dame; regardless, it's going to help the Tide for years.
2008 Season Outlook: Last season was painful not just for the losses but for the team's attitude becoming unravelled in the 2nd half of the year. Things started out promising enough with a 41-38 win over Arkansas in the 3rd game, but soon the Tide were 3-2, suffering close losses to Georgia and FSU. The 30-24 victory over Houston and 24-21 Ole Miss final, like the 24-10 Vanderbilt win early on, raised some more flags for this team's inability to put away weaker squads. But after crushing Tennessee 41-17, Alabama was 6-2 and it looked like the Tide would roll with Saban after all. They very nearly upset LSU, but came up short, 41-34, after which things started to become unglued. They lost to Mississippi State 17-12, and the following week the suffered the most embarrassing loss a 'Bama team has had in a long time, falling to Louisiana-Monroe of the Sun Belt conference—at home. A competitive loss to rival Auburn closed the season at 6-6. They had still "earned" a bowl bid, against similarly mediocre Colorado, and they managed to close on a good note, winning 30-24. But the season left a bad taste in many fans' mouths, as the contentiousness within the team led to loads of disciplinary measures by Saban to avoid an open revolt.

Alabama 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	N	Clemson	42%	L
9/6	Sat	vs.	Tulane	81%	W
9/13	Sat	vs.	Western Kentucky	80%	W
9/20	Sat	@	*Arkansas	52%	W
9/27	Sat	@	*Georgia	37%	L
10/4	Sat	vs.	*Kentucky	56%	W
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi	64%	W
10/25	Sat	@	*Tennessee	45%	L
11/1	Sat	vs.	Arkansas State	79%	W
11/8	Sat	@	*Louisiana State	41%	L
11/15	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi State	59%	W
11/29	Sat	vs.	*Auburn	49%	L
Favored: 7-5  Projected: 7-5

Alabama has five really tough games on their schedule: the Atlanta opener against Clemson, then road contests at Georgia, Tennessee, and LSU. They finish at home against Auburn. All of these could be losses but they might beat Auburn at home. In between are a lot of games they should win, and hopefully this year's late Sun Belt opponent isn't as greedy. There are four or five losses on this schedule, but probably no more than that, so the Tide should be in a better bowl but not one of the big ones, unless this time around they're the upsetter rather than the upsettee.

24. Utah Utes

2007 Results:     Record: 9-4     Bowl: beat Navy 35-32 (Poinsettia Bowl)  Poll finish: #32 AP #38 USA
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #31    Success: #44    Combined: #34
Utah is the real team to beat in the Mountain West, and the most likely BCS-crasher, too.
Offense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #69   Adj. Rush Yards: #36  Adj. Pass Yards: #74
Brian Johnson is back, healthy, and ready to go in his senior season, after playing much of last year hurt. He still mananged almost 2,000 passing yards and 150 net rushing yards, with 11 TDs and 10 interceptions. Those numbers don't tell the story of what he does for the team at full-strength; without him, Utah was 1-3; with him, 8-1. The rest of the offense is ready, too. Running back Darrell Mack returns after a 1,200 yard season (12 TDs), with Matt Asiata back from injury. The Utes lose three top receivers (Marquis Wilson is back on the team but isn't allowed to play this year) but return two as well, Brandon Godfrey and Freddie Brown, plus Brent Casteel, a starter in '06. The line returns four starters. Injuries are the only thing that can keep this offense from being dramatically improved from last year's squad.
Defense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #10   Adj. Rush Def: #26    Adj. Pass Def: #16
The Ute defense was among the best last year, holding opponents to far below their average overall. The front four helped hold six opponents under 100 yards rushing in '07, and both starters at end are back, Koa Misi and Paul Kruger, but they lose Martail Burnett (7 sacks) and Gabe Long on the inside. At linebacker only Stevenson Sylvester is back, but he was 2nd on the team in tackles. The secondary will be the strong point of this defense, despite the departure of leading tackler Steve Tate. The Utes were top 25 in yardage yielded last season, and exceptional in pass efficiency defense, allowing just 9 TDs. Corner Brice McCain is the best of the lot, with 11 pass breakups. Sean Smith, R.J. Stanford, and Robert Johnson all started half-time or more last year, and several other players have experience. The secondary has quality and depth and should again be one of the best in the country.
Kicking Game (2 RS): If Brian Johnson isn't the team MVP, then Louis Sakoda is. Sakoda is both an outstanding punter (44.3 average, with 28 inside the 20, and six downed inside the five), and one of the college game's best field goal kickers, hitting 19 of 22 last year.
Recruiting: Recruiting at Utah is actually a bit better, perhaps, post-Urban Meyer; of course, that's also post BCS-bowl year 2004, when the Utes went undefeated with Alex Smith. The last two classes for Kyle Whittingham have been around the average mark, 60th or so. This year is particularly heavy on receivers, with David Reed and Aiona Key (still awaiting JUCO grades) on 2nd string. Sausan Shakerin will see playing time at running back. On defense Dave Kruger, brother of starting DE Paul, is the backup nose tackle.
2008 Season Outlook: Last season started out a mess and ended a success. With Brian Johnson hurt most of the first four games, Utah was erratic, losing to Oregon State and Air Force but beating UCLA 44-6, then losing to UNLV 27-0! With Johnson back but still hurting, they started to find their stride, toppling Louisville 44-35 and Wyoming 50-0 amidst a seven-game winning streak. They played BYU tough in a game that decided the Mountain West championship, but lost a heartbreaker, 17-10. They edged Navy in a tight contest, 35-32, in the Poinsettia Bowl.    

Utah 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	@	Michigan	50%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	*Nevada-Las Vegas	75%	W
9/13	Sat	@	Utah State	74%	W
9/20	Sat	@	*Air Force	68%	W
9/27	Sat	vs.	Weber State	90%	W
10/2	Thu	vs.	Oregon State	61%	W
10/11	Sat	@	*Wyoming	65%	W
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Colorado State	76%	W
11/1	Sat	@	*New Mexico	64%	W
11/6	Thu	vs.	*Texas Christian	60%	W
11/15	Sat	@	*San Diego State	71%	W
11/22	Sat	vs.	*Brigham Young	52%	W
Favored: 12-0  Projected: 8-4

Utah's BCS hopes will live or die in the first and last games of the year. In between, they need only keep their focus and pray against injuries. They are a better team than Michigan, and the Wolverine offense will be brand new when it faces the Utes' sturdy D. Still, it will be their toughest game, on the road in front of 100,000+ rabid fans. After that the path is reasonably clear, barring upsets of course. They are roughly as good as BYU this year, and get them at home. So if they beat Michigan, watch out. The 2008 Utah isn't nearly as good as the 2004 undefeated squad, so I'm inclined to think they'll slip up somewhere even if they get past Michigan. Upsets happen to everyone, and this team doesn't have the leeway in quality to guard against a lapse. The cumulative projection of 8-4 reflects how non-dominant they will be in general. In fact, multiplying the odds through Utah, despite being a favorite or tossup in every game, has just a 1% chance of going undefeated.

Get past the Michigan game though, and those odds double. I figure that 10-2 is a good estimate; they will split Michigan and BYU, and drop an upset somewhere else along the way. 11-1 I can even see. But not 12-0, unless the team stays miraculously injury-free, Brian Johnson fully recaptures his old form, and they get on a roll with only a home game against BYU standing in their way...then they might just do it.

25. Maryland Terrapins

2007 Results:    Record: 6-7    Bowl: lost to Oregon State 21-14 (Emerald Bowl)    Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #42    Success: #53    Combined: #44
The Terrapins are one of the most improved teams in the country, and the highest-rated team who had a losing record last season.
Offense (9 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #58   Adj. Rush Yards: #62    Adj. Pass Yards: #81
Who was more important to Maryland's offense in 2007, running backs Keon Lattimore and Lance Ball (combined 1,563 yards, 25 TDs) or quarterbacks Chris Turner and Jordan Steffy (combined 2,644 yards, 9 TDs)? We'll find out as the former two are gone while the latter return, and coach Ralph Friedgen has named Steffy the starter. The rest of the offense is in good shape; top receivers Darius Heyward-Bay and Isaiah Williams are back with tight end Dan Gronkowski and fullback Cory Jackson. The offensive line is more than solid, with three full-time and two half-time starters filling the five spots.
Defense (5 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #27    Adj. Rush Def: #61    Adj. Pass Def: #58
Maryland's D mysteriously yielded far more in yardage than they did in points; it wasn't red zone defense, which the Terps weren't particularly good at. They had a decent turnover margin (23rd) so that may explain some of it. In any case, the defense has some other unresolved questions, too. The front four are okay, returning full-time starters Jeremy Navarre and Trey Covington. The linebackers are set; though they lose #1 tackler Erin Henderson, they get #2 Dave Philistin and #3 Moise Fokou back. The secondary is the big question mark. Corner Kevin Barnes is a standout, with 4 interceptions, 9 pass break-ups, and 5.5 tackles for loss, but he's the only starter returning. A motley crew of talent will help fill the gaps: USC transfer Antwine Perez; former receivers Nolan Carroll and Terrell Skinner; ex-running backs Jeff Allen and Anthony Wiseman; and track sprinter Richard Taylor. 
Kicking Game (2 RS): Travis Baltz does an adequate job at punter, and returns this season along with very good kicker Obi Egekeze (17 of 23 field goals).
Recruiting: Despite Maryland's erratic results and lack of reputation as a football power, Ralph Friedgen has managed to recruit quite well. Both of the last two classes rank around #40 in the country. They did particulary well at receiver this year, with Kenny Tate, Kevin Dorsey, and Kerry Boykins are rated in the top 50 receivers and the top 150 players in the country. But none might catch a pass this year; with an already-loaded receiver corps, Tate has moved temporarily to safety. Dorsey injured his foot and may redshirt, and Boykins could join him.
2008 Season Outlook: Last season was strictly mediocre, though the team clearly improved as the year went on. The first two wins over I-AA Villanova and Florida International were unimpressive and were followed by a loss to West Virginia and a really disheartening overtime loss to Wake Forest. Two good wins, Rutgers and Georgia Tech, were followed by three losses. Finally they hit their stride against Boston College, winning 42-35, and played FSU well before putting it all together against North Carolina State, winning 37-0. They did better in the Emerald bowl than expected, losing 21-14, which gave them a 6-7 record. Overall their losses were very close, even those against good teams.

Maryland 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Delaware	69%	W
9/6	Sat	@	Middle Tennessee	70%	W
9/13	Sat	vs.	California	57%	W
9/20	Sat	vs.	Eastern Michigan	77%	W
9/27	Sat	@	*Clemson	38%	L
10/4	Sat	@	*Virginia	59%	W
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Wake Forest	56%	W
10/25	Sat	vs.	*North Carolina St.	75%	W
11/6	Thu	@	*Virginia Tech	50%	W
11/15	Sat	vs.	*North Carolina	57%	W
11/22	Sat	vs.	*Florida State	56%	W
11/29	Sat	@	*Boston College	54%	W
Favored: 11-1  Projected: 7-5

This season Maryland is going to sneak up on some teams. Take the first game against Delaware, one of the top teams in I-AA. The game will likely be close, making it look like Maryland isn't very good. Beating Middle Tennessee won't do anything to convince people otherwise. Then, they'll beat California, who will probably be in the top 25 at that point. Losing to Clemson will reassure the nation that the Terps aren't for real...but the upset of Wake Forest will be shocker #2. Virginia Tech is a 50/50 proposition, and Tech might pull it out at home. Three victories later, and Maryland has a 10- or 11-win season on its hands.

Too good to be true? Maybe so. All of the last three will be tough games, as will Cal and Wake, so the cumulative odds say 7-5 is more realistic, or at least a lower bound. I think the team is capable of nine wins this year, provided the defense holds and the quarterback situation works out in a positive fashion.

2008 pre-season rankings: #26-30 - Pitt, Arizona, FSU among most improved teams

SportsRatings is ranking all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August until the season begins. These rankings are meant to reflect how good the teams might be in 2008 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for each team, and two projected records are given: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and another cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty in the predictions. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. (Schedule listings adapted from James Howell's site)

This installment covers teams from #26 to #30. To see the full list, click here.

26. Pittsburgh Panthers     (pre-season #25 AP)

2007 Results:    Record: 5-7   Bowl: n/a   Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #59    Success: #41    Combined: #58
After all the waiting, is it finally time for Pitt to break through under head coach Dave Wannstedt?
Offense (8 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #82   Adj. Rush Yards: #70    Adj. Pass Yards: #104
The Panther offense left a lot to be desired last year. Help is on the way in 2008, as nearly every skill position returns. Though starting QB Pat Bostick is back along with backup Kevan Smith, neither was consistent and both will be backups this season as original '07 starter Bill Stull returns from injury. The receiving corps is ready, starring Oderick Turner, T.J. Porter, tight end Nate Byham, and '06 starter Derek Kinder, and the passing game has nowhere to go but up. The running game was somewhat better, and this year LeSean McCoy (1,328 yards, 14 TDs) wants to break out. Backup LaRod Stephens-Howling and fullback Conredge Collins fill out the ground attack. The only question is the line, which loses three starters. They've lost weight as part of Wannstedt's conditioning philosophy—he wants a leaner, faster line to deal with today's quicker defensive linemen.
Defense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #29    Adj. Rush Def: #23    Adj. Pass Def: #8
The defense carried the team most of last year; the offense scored little even in victory. The core of the defense is back in each area. Two starters leave the D-line, including Joe Clermond (10.5 sacks), but Mick Williams and Rashaad Duncan return, and Greg Romeus moves in after an excellent freshman year. Unfortunately Doug Fulmer, returning after injuries the past two seasons, hurt his knee again and is out the year. All three linebackers—the team's top tacklers Scott McKillop (151 tackles!), Shane Murray, and Adam Gunn—are back. Despite hauling in very few interceptions, Pitt yielded one of the lowest pass yardages in the country (#3 by raw yards, #8 when adjusted for opposition). They lose two starters, but Eric Thatcher and Aaron Berry head a group that will try to keep Pitt in the top 10. To fill in the gaps on defense, about 19 or 20 of the 2nd and 3rd string return, so depth is not an issue.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Conor Lee is one of the most reliable kickers in college football, hitting 18 of 22 field goals plus all his PATs (Pitt's offense only generated 28 attempts). Punter Dave Brytus had a so-so average (39.6) and net (34.5).
Recruiting: When Wannstedt took over at Pitt, they'd already been having winning seasons; he was supposed to take them to the next level. Since then the wins have been few and much patience necessary. But every year he's had a good recruiting class, and the quality players are building up inside the program. The 2007 class was an excellent, top 20 class while the 2008 class was again in the top 30. The star of this year's crop could be Rob Houser, a JUCO transfer slated to start at center. There are 13 freshman in the two-deep, 10 from '07 and three from '08.

Pitt 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Bowling Green	73%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	Buffalo	73%	W
9/20	Sat	vs.	Iowa	63%	W
9/27	Sat	@	*Syracuse	72%	W
10/2	Thu	@	*South Florida	30%	L
10/18	Sat	@	Navy	68%	W
10/25	Sat	vs.	*Rutgers	54%	W
11/1	Sat	@	Notre Dame	60%	W
11/8	Sat	vs.	*Louisville	68%	W
11/22	Sat	@	*Cincinnati	45%	L
11/28	Fri	vs.	*West Virginia	41%	L
12/6	Sat	@	*Connecticut	44%	L
Favored: 8-4   Projected: 7-5

2008 Season Outlook 2007 was just like the previous few years under Wannstedt: a promising start, then disappointment and a "wait 'till next year" feeling sinking in. Then in the last game of the season, The Upset happened.

Pitt had already defeated Cincinnati to break a four-game losing streak, but more observers tended to deem Cincy overrated and leave it at that. The fact was, Pitt's defense was getting good enough that the team could potentially compete with anyone, as long as the offense gave something, which it usually couldn't. Pitt dropped three of the next four, beating only Syracuse to stand 4-7. The most daunting game of the season, a road trip to West Virginia, followed. The Mountaineers just had to win the game to be in the BCS title game, and Pitt had nothing to win in terms of bowl eligibility. But the Panthers shut down the nation's most productive offense and pulled off a stunning 13-9 win. Once again, the offense had little to do with it, but it was a start. And it put Pitt football back on the map, if only as spoilers, but this season they can do more.

Pitt will be a good team in 2008. The initial wins will continue through the middle of the season. At the end, the games get a lot harder, but if they gain confidence by then? Maybe some more upsets are in the works. A lot of the teams on the schedule are unpredictable; some deem Iowa and Notre Dame much better teams, and USF and Cincinnati much worse. So I may have more confidence in a conservative projection like the cumulative 7-5. But at 7 wins or 8, Pitt's finally going to a bowl game under Dave Wannstedt, I'm pretty sure of that.

27. Arizona Wildcats

2007 Results:    Record: 5-7    Bowl: n/a   Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #32   Success: #50    Combined: #38
Arizona could be the surprise 4th place team in the Pac-10. More surprisingly, they could have a really good offense this season.
Offense (10 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #33    Adj. Rush Yards: #94    Adj. Pass Yards: #11
This offense is set at nearly every position. The passing game was great last year under a new offensive coordinator and should be again; the ground game can only improve behind a strong offensive line. Willie Tuitama returns for his senior year, having led the team for three seasons. Last year's was the best, as he topped 3,500 yards and 28 TDs with only 12 interceptions, completing 62.4%. All the starting receivers are back, with Mike Thomas' 1,038 yards and 11 touchdown receptions the best (Thomas also had a TD run from scrimmage and returned punts). Nicholas Grigsby is the big hope for the rushing attack, with 704 yards but just 2 TDs in '07. The offensive line should be able to deliver, with four starters back, but they lose 4-year starter Peter Graniello, and his purported replacement—ex-Texas JUCO J'Marcus Webb—did not qualify academically.
Defense (3 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #42    Adj. Rush Def: #21    Adj. Pass Def: #61
The defense has been good in the past in Mike Stoops' reign at Arizona, but now that the offense is taking off the defense has some challenges. The front line loses all four starters, and projected starting DE Jonathan Turner was suspended indefinitely. At linebacker Ronnie Palmer is the only returnee, but he was the team's 2nd leading tackler last year (#1 was LB Spencer Larsen, who graduated to the NFL). The secondary is the most solid area of the defense with two starters back, but the ones they lost—Andre Cason, the top d-back in the country last year, and 3-year starter Wilrey Fontenot—are difficult to replace. While the situation looks bad when counting key players lost from the 1st string, this is mitigated by the 18 that return from the 2nd and 3rd string. Still, the Wildcats lose seven of their top nine tacklers.
Kicking Game (2 RS): The kicking game is an area of strength for the Wildcats. Some people discount the relative value of placekicking and punting, but the kicker is generally the high scorer on the team, and punting can control field position. Keenyn Crier averaged 43.7 yards and an excellent 38.1 net per punt. Jason Bondzio was 21 of 26 field goals last year. Both are back, and provide a tangible advantage.
Recruiting: Stoops' recruiting sits around 40th best in the nation the last two years. This year's score was supposed to be JUCO Webb, a 6' 8" 320 lb. offensive tackle who played at Texas as a freshman, had to go to junior college for a year, and committed to Arizona. He didn't pass clearinghouse, and ended up at West Texas A&M this year. Instead, the featured JUCO may be LB Vuna Tuihalamaka, who joins his cousin, redshirt freshman DE Apaiata Tuihalamaka, in bolstering the defense.

Arizona 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Idaho	81%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	Toledo	74%	W
9/13	Sat	@	New Mexico	62%	W
9/20	Sat	@	*UCLA	54%	W
10/4	Sat	vs.	*Washington	62%	W
10/11	Sat	@	*Stanford	58%	W
10/18	Sat	vs.	*California	56%	W
10/25	Sat	vs.	*Southern California	48%	L
11/8	Sat	@	*Washington State	59%	W
11/15	Sat	@	*Oregon	35%	L
11/22	Sat	vs.	*Oregon State	60%	W
12/6	Sat	vs.	*Arizona State	51%	W
Favored: 10-2  Projected: 7-5

2008 Season Outlook Every time Arizona played poorly last year, it was proof that they're no good. And every time they exceeded expectations, the other team was ridiculed. The truth is, Arizona was much better, on average, than people thought. But they couldn't get over the hump in big games, and screwed up against lesser teams, making an overall decent team look mostly pathetic.

The loss to BYU was nothing to be ashamed of, but to some a BCS school shouldn't ever lose to a non-BCS opponent. Worse was the loss to New Mexico (who ended up 9-4). The 'Cats beat Washington State 48-20, which was taken as a sign that WSU was in trouble. When they played USC frighteningly close, people questioned the Trojans, or excused it due to backup Sanchez starting at QB. The loss to Stanford of course showed again how poor the Wildcats were. There were excuses for the next three wins as well: Washington was having a bad year; UCLA had quarterback issues; and of course, Dennis Dixon got hurt. All of this was true, but the fact that they could beat Oregon under any circumstances should have clued people in that the team was making progress. Next week, they lost to Arizona State by a field goal, which was written off due to its rivalry status.

This year the improvement should be undeniable. Despite the defense's losses, the offense is loaded and the schedule is compliant; the Wildcats could win nine games. Even the home loss to USC rates very close, and with luck they beat ASU at home. They play a lot of the lesser teams in the conference early, so the 'Cats could be 7-0 when they face the Trojans! But the cumulative projection allows just seven wins total, and given Arizona's recent history, I'd lean toward that as more likely than 10-2. However, a bowl game looks almost certain, and Mike Stoops' job appears to be safe for at least another year.

28. Florida State Seminoles

2007 Results:    Record: 7-6    Bowl: Lost to Kentucky 35-28 (Music City Bowl)    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #50    Success: #40    Combined: #49
Florida State is one of the most improved teams this year—that is, they will be once they get past the player suspensions that run through the third game of the season
Offense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #75    Adj. Rush Yards: #77    Adj. Pass Yards: #47
Where has Florida State's offense gone the last few years? Unable to run the ball or find a consistent quarterback, the production has come in spurts, never close to the unstoppable offenses of the '90s. But things might finally get back on track this year. Drew Weatherford returns at QB for his fourth year, and for the first time he won't have to battle Xavier Lee. He threw only 3 interceptions last season, but just 9 TDs and barely over 2,000 yards. Three receivers had 700+ yards in '07 and two are back, Greg Carr and Preston Parker (suspended 1st 2 games). Tight end Charlie Graham may or may not return depending on his grades, and at one point he was assumed to be lost. The running game looks good, as Antoine Smith (819 yards) returns with fullback Seddrick Holloway. Parker was the #2 rusher last year and also handled punt/kickoff returns. The only weak link is the offensive line, where just two starters are back since tackle Daron Rose's dismissal. Worse, projected starter at left guard Evan Bellamy is out for the season due to a blood clot. That leaves center Ryan McMahon and left tackle Rodney Hudson—who both started as freshmen—anchoring the line, and three freshmen—redshirts Will Furlong, Antwane Greenlee, and true Zebrie Sanders—filling it out. This has to be the youngest offensive line in the country and they'll be tested. Luckily they have two cupcakes on the schedule to start out.
Defense (8 [5] RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #25    Adj. Rush Def: #38    Adj. Pass Def: #76
The defense will be strong this year in Tallahassee. The front four return several players with starting experience, chief among them Everett Brown (6.5 sacks), Budd Thacker, and Neefy Moffett. But the latter two, along with starter Paul Griffin and reserves Kevin McNeil and Justin Mincy, will miss the first three games due to the academic scandal suspensions, leaving the D-line weak for Wake Forest (worse, late in camp, reserve Emmanuel Dunbar was taken away on a stretcher). The 'Noles are strong at linebacker, with #1 tackler Derek Nicholson and Dekoda Watson back, but Watson and starter Toddrick Verdell will miss the Wake game. The secondary is loaded, with Myron Rolle and Tony Carter back as starters; Michael Ray Garvin returns, too, but his starting spot will be taken by Patrick Robinson (6 INTs)—after the third game, when Robinson comes off academic suspension.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Punter Graham Gano is back, having averaged 43.4 per kick. Gary Cismesia, who hit 27 of 34 last year including a 60 yarders, is gone. Gano may take over as placekicker.
Recruiting: The pipeline is still pushing great players into the system. After an off-year in 2007 (borderline top 25) Bobby Bowden had another top 10 class for 2008. Perhaps the naming of Jimbo Fisher as (eventual) successor helped? In any case, there are some great players in the last few classes, and you can see four of them starting on this year's offensive line (see Offense), including two redshirt freshmen (Furlong and Greenlee), a true soph (Hudson) and a true freshman (Sanders). 2008 recruit Markus White will start at defensive end for at least the first three games; in fact on defense, there will be a lot of fresh faces for the first quarter of the season.

FSU 2008 schedule & forecast
9/6	Sat	vs.	Western Carolina	82%	W
9/13	Sat	vs.	Tenn.-Chattanooga	75%	W
9/20	Sat	vs.	*Wake Forest	45%	L
9/27	Sat	vs.	Colorado	58%	W
10/4	Sat	@	*Miami (Florida)	62%	W
10/16	Thu	@	*North Carolina St.	68%	W
10/25	Sat	vs.	*Virginia Tech	56%	W
11/1	Sat	@	*Georgia Tech	60%	W
11/8	Sat	vs.	*Clemson	45%	L
11/15	Sat	vs.	*Boston College	60%	W
11/22	Sat	@	*Maryland	46%	L
11/29	Sat	vs.	Florida	32%	L
Favored: 8-4  Projected: 7-5

2008 Season Outlook The 'Noles had another one of those seasons, with some good victories where it looked like things were finally back on track, to frustrating losses that showed they weren't. The home loss to Miami and the 45-12 drubbing by Florida were the low moments.

Ending another disappointing season 7-5, the academic cheating scandal depleted the team for the bowl game against Kentucky. More than 25 players missed the game, though many were for other reasons, so it's not clear exactly who is still suspended for the first three games of the season, but here's what I've figured out from various sources, including looking at who didn't play against Kentucky.

The number that's been thrown around most is ten players, and seven current starters, probably counted against the spring lineup. On offense:

Caz Piurowski, starting TE
Richard Goodman, reserve WR

And on defense:

Paul Griffin, starting DL
Budd Thacker, starting DL
Neefy Moffett, starting DL
Kevin McNeil, reserve DL
Justin Mincey, reserve DL
Dekoda Watson, starting LB
Toddrick Verdell, starting LB
Patrick Robinson, starting CB

I'm not 100% certain about these; it's a best guess because nothing official has been said, though a few players have mentioned that they are part of the suspended lot. In any case, it has an effect. Losing all these players drops FSU to #61 in my rating system for the first three games. Although the first two games are I-AA teams, and particularly bad ones, the third game against Wake Forest is affected. What would have been a win turns into a very likely loss. Without it they could have started 8-0 going into the the tough last four games of their season. FSU faces only four road games this season and could have a breakthrough year if they get past Wake and can handle Clemson and Maryland. The Florida-FSU game would really mean something! But I think they'll lose to Wake Forest, and finish with either 4 or 5 losses as projected. The offensive line is just too young, but in the years to come it will be a force. The Seminoles are on their way back; they just need to avoid the off-field issues that have bit them this year.

29. Rutgers Scarlet Knights

2007 Results:    Record: 8-5    Bowl: beat Ball State 52-30 (International)    Poll finish: #39 AP 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #36    Success: #39    Combined: #36
The loss of Ray Rice will hurt, but the program is still strong.
Offense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #37   Adj. Rush Yards: #31    Adj. Pass Yards: #44
For the last three years Ray Rice has been the star of Rutgers' offense as the program gained national prominence. Last year's 2,012 yards and 24 TDs won't be replaced easily, but quarterback Mike Teel had an excellent year himself: 3,147 yards and 20 TDs, despite playing hurt much of the time. And all the key receivers are back, led by Kenny Britt and Tiquan Underwood, who had over 1,000 yards each and 15 combined TDs. If the offensive line, which loses three starters, can protect Teel close to as well as last year (only 11 sacks allowed), then Rutgers could be a great passing team while Rice's understudies develop.
Defense (8 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #41    Adj. Rush Def: #70    Adj. Pass Def: #18
The rushing defense was shaky last season, but the veteran line is stocked with experience: three starters return and the fourth has starting experience; seniors Jamaal Westerman (8 sacks) and Peter Tverdov return at tackle, with junior George Johnson and senior Gary Watts at the ends. Two starters are back at linebacker including Kevin Malast (team's #2 tackler), and two other LBs who were injured last year return healthy in '07. The secondary is led by Courtney Green (team's #1 tackler) and the McCourty brothers, Devin and Jason. Twelve of the 15 top tacklers from '07 return for '08.
Kicking Game (0 RS): Jeremy Ito handled both chores last season, and he's moved on. As a kicker, he had a long career at Rutgers, but he punted only because no one else was available, averaging just 35.7 yards. They need a good kicker, but locating a punter who can do as well shouldn't be hard. Two redshirts to the rescue: freshman San San Te is listed at kicker and JUCO Teddy Dallaganna—who disconcertingly was beat out last year by Ito—takes over at punter.
Recruiting: Stories about how Rutgers is starting to compete with the big boys in recruiting have appeared steadily over the last few years, but the truth is that this is rare; Rutgers classes rank in the 30s and 40s lately, better than in the past but not Notre Dame level. They do occasionally land highly-touted recruits now. The big name this year was supposed to be Scott Vallone, ready to move in at defensive end; injuries have kept him out of the starting lineup. The starting spot at right guard is a competition between freshmen from '07 and '08, with Caleb Ruch leading Art Forst. And another redshirt freshman, Manny Abreu, is starting at linebacker ahead of last year's starter Damaso Muñoz.

Rutgers 2008 schedule & forecast
9/1	Mon	vs.	Fresno State	57%	W
9/11	Thu	vs.	North Carolina	56%	W
9/20	Sat	@	Navy	67%	W
9/27	Sat	vs.	Morgan State	100%	W
10/4	Sat	@	*West Virginia	33%	L
10/11	Sat	@	*Cincinnati	45%	L
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Connecticut	51%	W
10/25	Sat	@	*Pittsburgh	46%	L
11/8	Sat	vs.	*Syracuse	79%	W
11/15	Sat	@	*South Florida	30%	L
11/22	Sat	vs.	Army	90%	W
12/4	Thu	vs.	*Louisville	67%	W
Favored: 8-4  Projected: 7-5

2008 Season Outlook Coming off the magical 2006 campaign, last year was a bit of a slog. Beating overmatched Buffalo, Navy, and Norfolk meant nothing, especially after losing to Maryland and Cincinnati. The Knights came back to give USF its first loss, but dropped the big game with West Virginia 31-3, and ended the year losing to a fading Louisville team. They took out their frustrations on Ball State in the International Bowl, with Rice rushing for 280 yards and 4 TDs.

This year could be marginally better. Once again they won't be among the Big East's elite, but neither in the cellar. Unfortunately they have four conference road games, playing at Pitt, at Cincinnati, at West Virginia, and at USF. The teams they play at home they would probably beat on the road, save Connecticut. For non-conference play, Morgan State and Army provide comic relief, but Fresno State and UNC are no pushovers and will provide a stiff early test. All in all, I have them favored in eight, with the closest game being UConn which could drop them to 7-5. With the two gimmes on the schedule, I can see them improving their record, but with Ray Rice gone another 7-5 year might be more likely, and they won't compete with the league's best teams.

30. Kentucky Wildcats

2007 Results:    Record: 8-5   Bowl: beat FSU 35-28 (Music City Bowl)  Poll finish: #28 AP  #31 USA 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #26    Success: #19    Combined: #25
Due to amazing depth in reserves, Kentucky may be surprisingly good despite losing Andre Woodson. 
Offense (4 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #11   Adj. Rush Yards: #48    Adj. Pass Yards: #20
The loss of Andre Woodson is critical to this team, not just the offense. With 40 touchdowns and 3,709 yards last year, he put the team on the map, and the 'Cats have few options to replace him now that junior Curtis Pulley is off the team. There are other issues, too. Leading rushing Rafael Little (1,013 yards) is gone, and top receiver Steve Johnson (1,041 yards, 13 TDs) departs as well; there is strength at RB but only Dicky Lyons returns of the top 5 pass catchers. The team will definitely emphasize the run more next year, as the offensive line is their only bright spot, returning three starters, though backup Christian Johnson may be gone for '08. Although only 4 starters are back, 20 of the 24 top players beyond that return, so there is experience and depth but not quality at key positions.
Defense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #63    Adj. Rush Def: #85    Adj. Pass Def: #36
The UK defense couldn't stop the run very well last year, but should be better with three starters back on the front four, including end Jeremy Jarmon who had 9 sacks. The 'Cats are loaded with linebackers, so despite the huge loss of leading-tackler-by-a-mile Wesley Woodyard (139 tackles), two solid starters (Johnny Williams and Braxton Kelly) return with a backup (Micah Johnson) who was the 5th leading tackler last season. The secondary, which did an adequate job defending the pass in '07, looked to be set with three starters until cornerback Paul Warford was declared ineligible. Still, there may be improvement as corner Trevor Lindley and safety Marcus McClinton return and the corps is deep; overall on defense 18 2nd and 3rd stringers are back. Though they lose their clear #1 tackler, the defense returns nine of the top ten.
Kicking Game (2 RS): This is one of the few places the Wildcats don't need to look to reserves. Starting punter Tim Masthay and kicker Lones Sieber return, though neither is spectacular.
Recruiting: Kentucky is a very different team than when Rich Brooks took over five years ago. The speed and talent level of the squad overall has increased dramatically, allowing them to compete in the SEC rather than just reside there. Though the last few classes have only been about average, it was a lot worse before Brooks got here and he'll occasionally have a higher-ranked group. This year so much depth returns to the team that true freshmen will be mostly crowded out, but Aaron Boyd and Randall Cobb (QB in high school) will try to help out the depleted receiver corps.

Kentucky 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	@	Louisville	59%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	Norfolk State	96%	W
9/13	Sat	vs.	Middle Tennessee	75%	W
9/27	Sat	vs.	Western Kentucky	78%	W
10/4	Sat	@	*Alabama	42%	L
10/11	Sat	vs.	*South Carolina	46%	L
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Arkansas	57%	W
10/25	Sat	@	*Florida	24%	L
11/1	Sat	@	*Mississippi State	51%	W
11/8	Sat	vs.	*Georgia	42%	L
11/15	Sat	vs.	*Vanderbilt	64%	W
11/29	Sat	@	*Tennessee	42%	L
Favored: 7-5  Projected: 7-5

2008 Season Outlook Last season was supposed to be a breakthrough year and for a while, it was. The 'Cats rolled through their early schedule, upsetting Louisville and Arkansas along the way, before being stopped by South Carolina. No matter; the next week they pulled a major upset of LSU in triple overtime. This led to a shootout between Woodson and Tim Tebow that the Heisman winner barely won, 45-37. After that Kentucky's season started to fall apart; upset by Mississippi, they lost to Georgia and then in quadruple overtime to Tennessee, finishing 7-5 after starting 5-0. Their win over FSU in the Music City Bowl should have been triumphant, but due to the Seminoles' decimated lineup from the academic cheating scandal, most thought the 35-28 final score was unnecessarily close.

The Wildcats have three pretty easy games on the schedule, and should beat Louisville again this year as the Cards are down. Once the SEC gets started, the wins are few and far between, but they're still favored in half the overall schedule. While the cumulative projection also adds up to seven wins due to close losses, and the Mississippi State game is certainly winnable, with all the change on offense I wouldn't necessarily bet on them repeating last season's tally. 6-6 will still get you to a bowl game coming from the SEC.

2008 Pre-season rankings: #31-35 - Michigan and Cal have woes on O

SportsRatings is ranking all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August until the season begins. These rankings are meant to reflect how good the teams might be in 2008 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for each team, and two projected records are given: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and another cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty in the predictions. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. (Schedule listings adapted from James Howell's site)

This installment covers teams from #31 to #35. To see the full list, click here.

31. Wisconsin Badgers     (pre-season AP #13, USA-coaches #12)

2007 Results:    Record: 9-4   Bowl: lost to Tennessee 21-17 (Outback)  Poll finish: #24 AP  #21 USA 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #37    Success: #33    Combined: #37
Wisconsin is better this year, but they were overrated last season. They'll still fight Michigan for 3rd place in the Big Ten. 
Offense (8 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #43   Adj. Rush Yards: #16    Adj. Pass Yards: #80
Tyler Donovan was a decent quarterback and led the team well in a year when P.J. Hill was slowed by injuries. With Donovan gone and the loss of backup RB Lance Smith, there is more on Hill's shoulders. Last year he had 1,212 yards and 14 TDs; since the offensive line loses just one starter, Hill should have a monster year if he can stay healthy. Whoever the new QB is (and currently Kansas State transfer Allan Evridge leads the QB race, as he had starting experience there) he can count on tight end Travis Beckum as a reliable target. Beckum was a Mackey award finalist last year and had almost 1,000 receiving yards (6 TDs). But look for the Badgers to heavily emphasize the run once again.
Defense (9 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #40    Adj. Rush Def: #24    Adj. Pass Def: #65
Wisconsin returns three starters in each area of their 4-3 defense. Matt Shaughnessy (5 sacks), Jason Chapman, and Mike Newkirk on the front four; Jonathan Casillas (#1 tackler on the team), DeAndre Levy (#2 tackler), and Elijah Hodge (#3) at linebacker; and Shane Carter (7 interceptions), Allen Langford, and Aubrey Pleasant in the secondary. While the defense will miss NFL draftees Nick Hayden and Jack Ikegwuonu (15 pass breakups!), the defense is very solid, returning the top 5 tacklers and 8 of the top 9. Sophomore Aaron Henry, starter at cornerback, will miss at least the first three games after knee surgery.
Kicking Game (0 RS): 4-year punter Ken DeBauche and excellent kicker Taylor Mehlhaff are gone; true freshman Brad Nortman may take over punting, while redshirt frosh Philip Welch is battling walk-on Matt Fischer for the placekicking slot.
Recruiting: The transition from Barry Alvarez to Bret Bielema was a smooth one two years ago, and recruiting has held steady, with Wisconsin's latest classes in the top 40. Some of the most important newcomers this season are those vying for kicker and punter, though true freshman Curt Phillips suddenly becomes The Man if Evridge goes down.

Wisconsin 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Akron	76%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	Marshall	72%	W
9/13	Sat	@	Fresno State	48%	L
9/27	Sat	@	*Michigan	47%	L
10/4	Sat	vs.	*Ohio State	27%	L
10/11	Sat	vs.	*Penn State	49%	L
10/18	Sat	@	*Iowa	54%	W
10/25	Sat	vs.	*Illinois	56%	W
11/1	Sat	@	*Michigan State	49%	L
11/8	Sat	@	*Indiana	57%	W
11/15	Sat	vs.	*Minnesota	70%	W
11/22	Sat	vs.	Cal Poly-SLO	74%	W
Favored: 7-5  Projected: 7-5

2008 Season Outlook Wisconsin's seasons are pretty boring, really. They win lots of games, but can be counted on to not be in the national title hunt, often by losing to another team that's in the hunt. Any other school that won this much would be talked about as a national title contenders, but Wisconsin doesn't seem to have the killer instinct to push it over the top. Either that, or their schedule is considered weak, as was the case last year. The Badgers were 5-0, with two narrow Big Ten wins and three unconvincing defeats of cupcakes. Wisconsin ended up losing to Illinois, Penn State, and Ohio State,  only beating Michigan out of the top Big Ten teams. They played Tennessee close but came up short in their bowl game in Florida, where the Wisconsin team should make January 1st reservations in advance to save money.

Though that might not be a great idea this season. Wisconsin's schedule is full of close games, almost all of which I have them losing. Playing at Fresno and at Michigan, then facing tough Penn State at home and Michigan State on the road gives them four losses, and Ohio State is the only game they're sure to lose. Of course, it means that an 11-1 season is not out of the question. In fact, that would be typical of Wisconsin to manage to have an unimpressive 11-1 year, beating foes by a field goal here and there, while dispatching teams like Akron to start the year and Cal Poly to end it. Conversely there are only four certain wins on the list; but I don't see Wisconsin having a losing season. 7-5 is probably a floor for this team, with a solid defense and strong offensive line. If Hill goes nuts, they'll push toward 11-1. If he's injured again, and/or no competent QB is uncovered, 7-5 it is, and maybe this time, the Alamo Bowl for a change.

32. California Golden Bears

2007 Results:    Record: 7-6    Bowl: Beat Air Force (Armed Services Bowl)    Poll finish: #32 USA
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #30    Success: #31    Combined: #29
The Bears were riding high early and fell apart late. Are they back on track?
Offense (4 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #30   Adj. Rush Yards: #20    Adj. Pass Yards: #51
Nate Longshore sucks, and Kevin Riley biffed it. That's one way to look at the Bear QBs. The other is more fair: Longshore was good until he was injured, and after Riley played very well after his one big mistake. Cal was 5-0 and #2 in the nation under Longshore when he hurt his ankle; freshman Riley stepped in and ran the ball instead of positioning for a tying field goal, losing the Oregon State game. After these events, Longshore was hobbled but Riley did a good job, especially in the bowl game. Both are back and battling for starter status: Longshore started most games and had 2,580 yards, 60%, 16 TDs and 13 INTs; Riley had 563 yards, 64%, 5 TDs, 1 INT. Whoever wins (Riley was named starter, for now) will be throwing to a completely new receiver corps after losing the likes of DeSean Jackson and Lavelle Hawkins (6 TD each). Just as importantly, 1,500 yard rusher Justin Forsett (15 TDs) is gone. But Cal always seems to find great backs, and backup Jahvid Best had a 7.6 yard average and 2 TDs on 29 carries last year. The offensive line returns three starters including All-American candidate Alex Mack.
Defense (8 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #44    Adj. Rush Def: #33    Adj. Pass Def: #32
The defense will be strong in Berkeley this season. The three of the front four are back, with another starter, Rulon Davis, having missed most of '07; since Cal is switching to a 3-4, the front line has extra depth. Three starting linebackers return: Zack Follett (5.5 sacks last year), and Worrell Williams and Anthony Felder, both of whom topped 100 tackles last season. The secondary loses leading tackler Thomas DeCloud but corner Syd'Quan Thompson (10 pass break-ups) returns.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Jordan Kay is back to handle placekicking for the Bears; he was 13 of 20 on field goals, questionable past the 35. Punter Andrew Larson had a strong 37.6 net and is gone, but his replacement is a top recruit from '07, Bryan Anger. So far witnesses from camp, including the punt returners, are impressed.
Recruiting: Anger isn't the only redshirt frosh that will make an impact this year; the 2007 class was easily top 25 in the nation. Receiver Michael Calvin is another likely starter removing his redshirt. The 2008 class wasn't rated quite as high, but Tedford says that four newcomers (freshmen Marvin Jones, Jarrett Sparks, and Charles Satchell and JUCO Verran Tucker) may play this season at the depleted wide receiver position.

Cal 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Michigan State	56%	W
9/6	Sat	@	*Washington State	56%	W
9/13	Sat	@	Maryland	44%	L
9/27	Sat	vs.	Colorado State	73%	W
10/4	Sat	vs.	*Arizona State	48%	L
10/18	Sat	@	*Arizona	45%	L
10/25	Sat	vs.	*UCLA	59%	W
11/1	Sat	vs.	*Oregon	40%	L
11/8	Sat	@	*Southern California	39%	L
11/15	Sat	@	*Oregon State	51%	W
11/22	Sat	vs.	*Stanford	63%	W
12/6	Sat	vs.	*Washington	59%	W
Favored: 7-5  Projected: 6-6

2008 Season Outlook As explained in the Offense section, a great season turned sour for Cal fans last year. Starting 5-0 and ending 2-6 doesn't do much for momentum going into the next year, but at least they got the bowl victory and a winning record. Most of the games were close, the largest losing margin being 14 points. So there were still bright spots and good things going on, it just didn't all come together again after Longshore's injury and the unfortunate Oregon State loss.

With a tough Pac-10 in 2008, conference wins are difficult; plus Cal tends to schedule a difficult non-conf as well. This year they have Maryland on the road, a difficult proposition. They also travel to Arizona, another improved team. ASU, Oregon, and USC look like losses as well, but a close victory this time around at Oregon State should give them seven wins. The quarterback play should be better this year, and the team will be better than during last season's slump, though not as good as when they had Forsett and Jackson. The defense will help see them through, so as long as Riley downs the ball like he should and Longshore stays healthy, they should match last year's win total pre-bowl game. The possibility always exists, of course, that Tedford finds enough answers to bring the team back to its former greatness this season rather than having to wait until 2009 or 2010.

33. Wake Forest Demon Deacons     (pre-season AP #23, USA-coaches #23)

2007 Results:    Record: 9-4   Bowl: beat UConn 24-10 (Meineke Car Care) Poll finish: #29 AP  #28 USA 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #41    Success: #32    Combined: #40
With a little help from FSU's academic scandal, a strong D will allow Wake Forest to compete for a spot in the ACC title game in '08.
Offense (5 RS)     '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #49    Adj. Rush Yards: #76    Adj. Pass Yards: #90
The Deac offense didn't instill fear into opponents in '07, and '08 will be no different. Quarterback Riley Skinner returns, and though he had just over 2,000 yards and 12 TDs with 13 interceptions, his 72% rate suggests he should be able to cut down on the latter and greatly increase the former; but top receiver Kenny Moore (over 1,000 yards, 12 TDs) is gone. Running back Josh Adams was nearly a 1,000 yard rusher, but loses most of his backups. The offensive line is reduced to three part-time starters, missing all-american center Steve Justice among others. But by featuring Adams and if Skinner improves, the mediocre offense could be just as good despite the losses. A couple of players who missed last year are back, too: fullback Rich Belton and receiver Marshall Williams are now healthy; either or both could be starters.
Defense (9 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #39    Adj. Rush Def: #25    Adj. Pass Def: #82
The defense has the most experience right where they need it. The rushing defense was good last year, and enough talent returns on the line—including starters Boo and Matt Robinson—to keep it that way. The linebacking corps is a coach's dream, with everyone back 2-deep, led by Aaron Curry who had 3 sacks and 4 interceptions. Finally, the secondary, which needs the most improvement, has all four starters back. Safety Chip Vaughn led the team with 105 tackles last year, while corner Alphonso Smith had 8 interceptions. Good talent + good depth is a recipe for a strong defense in 2008.
Kicking Game ('2' RS): Sam Swank handles both punting and placekicking for the Deacons. He's only an adequate punter lately but an excellent kicker, missing just 3 of 21 field goals—though two of those were in the close loss to Virginia.
Recruiting: Jim Grobe has built the Wake program from less than mediocrity into a legitimate ACC contender. And he's done it without getting highly-touted recruiting classes, not that this would have been possible in Winston-Salem before. The '07 class was firmly in the bottom half of the nation as a whole, while the '08 class was just above mid-line. From this, Grobe and staff will mold players that will compete with those from the top 25 classes. Redshirt freshmen Devon Brown and Brendon Pendergrass should help backup the RB and WR positions, while true frosh Joe Looney will be needed on the offensive line.

Wake Forest 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	@	Baylor	65%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	Mississippi	61%	W
9/20	Sat	@	*Florida State	54%	W
9/27	Sat	vs.	Navy	72%	W
10/9	Thu	vs.	*Clemson	42%	L
10/18	Sat	@	*Maryland	44%	L
10/25	Sat	@	*Miami (Florida)	60%	W
11/1	Sat	vs.	*Duke	67%	W
11/8	Sat	vs.	*Virginia	63%	W
11/15	Sat	@	*North Carolina St	65%	W
11/22	Sat	vs.	*Boston College	58%	W
11/29	Sat	vs.	Vanderbilt	63%	W
Favored: 10-2  Projected: 7-5

2008 Season Outlook Wake Forest quietly went 9-4 last year when everyone was expecting a hard fall from '06. Starting the year with two losses didn't help; by the time Nebraska had beaten them at home, most of the country lost interest and assumed they'd shuffle back to the lower half of the ACC. Even after the subsequent six game win streak, which included Florida State, losses to Virginia and Clemson kept Wake out of the top 25, out of sight, and out of mind. But two more wins put them at 8-4, and a victory over Connecticut gave them as many wins as Florida had. But they fell short of top 25 status; they didn't make enough noise in '07.

This year looks even better—on paper at least. Clemson and Maryland look like the only losses, with the luck of the draw—FSU will be hobbled by suspensions—turning a likely loss into a win. Wake's offense at the time will still be a work in progress, but with the Seminoles' heavy suspension losses on D, they have a good chance. A 10-2 year is a possibility, though there is a major caveat, of course. Though they are favored in the bulk of games, they aren't heavy favorites in any of them except maybe Navy and Duke at home (they failed to schedule cupcakes, in other words). Hence the cumulative 7-5. But it looks like last year's eight wins can be readily matched, or surpassed, in 2008.

34. Michigan Wolverines     (pre-season USA-Coaches #24)

2007 Results:    Record: 9-4    Bowl: Beat Florida 41-35 (Capital One)    Poll finish: #18 AP  #19 USA
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #21    Success: #24    Combined: #22
Rich Rodriguez inherits a decimated offense, but in a Big Ten that's weak at the top, they're in a virtual tie for 3rd best team in the conference.
Offense (3 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #57   Adj. Rush Yards: #37    Adj. Pass Yards: #72
Where should we start? Perhaps at quarterback, where the Wolves lose 4-year starter Chad Henne, backup Ryan Mallett transferred, and potentially savior Terrelle Pryor jumped ship to Ohio State? Or running back, with another 4-year starter, Michael Hart, gone? Or maybe receiver: superstars Mario Manningham and Adrian Arrington have moved on. Offensive line? There were two starters back. Then Justen Boren quit the team, and transferred to...Ohio State. Now Stephen Schilling is the lone returnee on the line, and projected starter Cory Zirbel may be out for the season as well. Any good news? Well, distant #3 and #4 receivers Greg Mathews and TE Carson Butler are back, and last year's injuries to Hart gave backs Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown many reps. At QB will be either transfer Steven Threet, soph Nick Sheridan or frosh Justin Feagin. All of them must learn a radically different offense. On the bright side, what better time to install a new system?
Defense (8 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #7    Adj. Rush Def: #30    Adj. Pass Def: #5
The defense, luckily, is in far better shape. Last year the unit was reamed by Armanti Edwards and Dennis Dixon early on, but improved so much that they handled Tim Tebow's best shot in January. This season the front four is back in full force. Terrance Taylor, Tim Jamison, Brandon Graham, and Will Johnson all return and the rushing defense, which was great in later games against Wisconsin and Ohio State, will improve. Linebacker is a weaker area, with Shawn Crable (21 tackles for loss) and Chris Graham gone; only Obi Ezeh returns. The much-maligned secondary ended the year well-respected, and while they lose two top players including #1 tackler Jamar Adams, two starters return plus Brandon Harrison, who started 10 games mostly in the 3-3-5 set that Rodriguez will use. Beyond the starters, at least 17 of last year's reserves on 2nd and 3rd string are back. So while Michigan's D loses its four top tacklers, the next 11 return.  
Kicking Game (2 RS): Punter Zoltan Mesko (36 yard net) returns, as does kicker K.C. Lopata, who hit 11 of 12 field goals after replacing Jason Gingell (3 of 9) mid-stream last year.
Recruiting: This is all about the one that got away. Both of the last two classes rank in the top 10, give or take, the current crop somewhat higher. But it could have been among the top few until Terrelle Pryor decommitted, then went through a period of indecision before deciding on Ohio State. It's too bad, really, for the college football world. Seeing a depleted Michigan offense run by the freshman wonder would have created great drama and interest this season. With a coach and a system perfectly suited to his abilities, and a situation where he could have taken the reigns immediately, you have to question his (youthful) judgement to pick corporate, sweater-vested Ohio State, where he may get some use but will be locked within the OSU system, rather than shaping it himself. Other than that, the freshman class is strong, and yet may contain the starting QB in Justin Feagan.

Michigan 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Utah	50%	L
9/6	Sat	vs.	Miami (Ohio)	70%	W
9/13	Sat	@	Notre Dame	58%	W
9/27	Sat	vs.	*Wisconsin	54%	W
10/4	Sat	vs.	*Illinois	56%	W
10/11	Sat	vs.	Toledo	73%	W
10/18	Sat	@	*Penn State	41%	L
10/25	Sat	vs.	*Michigan State	56%	W
11/1	Sat	@	*Purdue	53%	W
11/8	Sat	@	*Minnesota	63%	W
11/15	Sat	vs.	*Northwestern	66%	W
11/22	Sat	@	*Ohio State	20%	L
Favored: 9-3  Projected: 7-5

2008 Season Outlook Michigan went through the ignomy of the Appalachian State loss and the home field crushing by Oregon. They slogged through the next eight games with victories, beating a very down Notre Dame and mostly subpar Big Ten teams, though Penn State and Illinois were no slouches. The Wolves dropped the last two to Wisconsin and Ohio State (for the 50th year in a row, it seems). Plagued by injuries all year long, they were finally healthy on offense for the Florida bowl game, and came back strong, winning 41-35 and regaining a lot of the respect that the early losses had cost them.

I once again see Michigan possibly losing their home opener, this time in a close game with much-improved Utah. It's too close to call and I keep going back and forth on it. But after that, scheduling is the Wolverines' friend. They get Wisconsin, Illinois, and Michigan State at home. All three of these would be road losses. They lose on the road to teams (Penn State, Ohio State) that probably would beat them in Ann Arbor anyway. This puts the Wolves at 9-3 or 10-2 for the year.

Of course this assumes the defense can carry them through the earlier games until the offense comes together (assuming that happens, too). A dip to 7-5 might be a more realistic, less rosy projection, as Notre Dame always gives them fits when not expected, Purdue at home will be tough, etc. But even that, or a repeat of last year's 8-4, would be welcome in what is really a rebuilding—almost rebooting—year with a new coaching staff.

35. Oklahoma State Cowboys

2007 Results:    Record: 7-6    Bowl: Beat Indiana 49-33 (Insight Bowl)    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #24    Success: #49    Combined: #28
The Cowboys played a lot better than their record showed last year. This year (Mike Gundy's 41st) their record might show better than they play.
Offense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #14   Adj. Rush Yards: #7    Adj. Pass Yards: #40
When it was all said and done, a star was discovered. Zac Robinson took over as starter for the Cowboys and racked up 2,824 yards passing and 847 rushing, scoring 23 TDs by air and 9 by ground, with only 9 interceptions and averaging over 6 yards a carry. Zac's back, and his targets include Mackey-watchlisted tight end Brandon Pettigrew, who has put his legal troubles behind him; '07 starting wide receiver Jeremy Broadway; and Dez Bryant, Damian Davis, and DeMarcus Conner, who might all start ahead of Broadway. Plus an offensive line that returns four starters while the fifth (center David Washington) started in '05 and '06. Those are the positives. The negatives? 1,000 yard rusher Dantrell Savage (9 TDs) is gone; 1,000 yard receiver Adarius Bowman (8 TDs) is gone; depth at QB is lost with the transfer of backup and former starter Bobby Reid; and unlike most teams, the 2nd and 3rd string offensive reserves from '07 are depleted (only ~8 of 22 return), so depth everywhere other than the line is an issue. If injuries take hold, the Cowboys have a problem.
Defense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #53    Adj. Rush Def: #68    Adj. Pass Def: #75
The Cowboy defense was homogenously porous last year. This season the rushing defense will likely suffer, as three starters are lost from the front four. At linebacker they lose leading tackler Donovan Woods but he was just one tackle ahead of #2 Patrick Levine who returns. Andre Sexton moves in from safety and is essentially the only starter lost from the secondary. Jacob Lacey (5 INTs) and Ricky Price were full-time starters, while Perrish Cox and Quinton Moore each started part-time. Overall, the Cowboy defense returns five of its top six tacklers.
Kicking Game (1.5 RS): Punter Matt Fodge is back; he averaged a decent 42.4 yards in '07. The Cowboys tried two kickers but neither one could make a long field goal. Jason Ricks (1 of 6 outside the 30) is gone, but Matt Bailey (0-2) returns.
Recruiting: Oklahoma State was consistent the last two years, both classes ranking around 30th. This season's big buzz is Beau Johnson, a JUCO running back many think will start (currently behind soph Kendall Hunter). JUCO Lucien Antione will get time at free safety. Yet another JUCO, Donald Booker, will compete for open linebacker spot.

Oklahoma State 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	@	Washington State	56%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	Houston	70%	W
9/13	Sat	vs.	Missouri State	83%	W
9/27	Sat	vs.	Troy	57%	W
10/4	Sat	vs.	*Texas A&M	57%	W
10/11	Sat	@	*Missouri	30%	L
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Baylor	72%	W
10/25	Sat	@	*Texas	38%	L
11/1	Sat	vs.	*Iowa State	73%	W
11/8	Sat	@	*Texas Tech	29%	L
11/15	Sat	@	*Colorado	47%	L
11/29	Sat	vs.	*Oklahoma	35%	L
Favored: 7-5  Projected: 6-6

2008 Season Outlook Looking back, the season wasn't as bad as it appeared some times, nor as good as it seemed. Losing to Georgia 35-14 shouldn't have felt shameful, and Troy turned out to be a respectable giant-killer (though they walloped the Cowboys pretty bad). Beating Florida Atlantic 42-6 certainly didn't register like it should have, and the win over Texas Tech looks like a strong victory now. Scoring 45 on Nebraska wasn't impressive just a few weeks later, and beating Kansas State looked better before everyone started doing it. The two games that still feel like they did at the time are the 1-point loss to Texas A&M (Cowboys were up 17-0) and the thrashing of Indiana in the Insight Bowl.

This year's scheduling could lead to some disappointment. Not only are most of the easier teams up front, which is normal, but after the trip to Seattle (where they play WSU) there are four home games in a row. By this time OK State could be 5-0. After Missouri and Baylor? 6-1. After Iowa State and Texas? 7-2. 7-2 with losses only to Missouri and Texas could put the Cowboys pretty high in the rankings. But the next three could all be losses, leading to a 7-5 finish. One game better than '07, but it might not feel like an accomplishment at the time. Much like last season, things may feel different at the time than they do when you put them in perspective.

2008 pre-season rankings: #36-40 - Colorado, UNC, Fresno leap

SportsRatings is ranking all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August until the season begins. These rankings are meant to reflect how good the teams might be in 2008 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for each team, and two projected records are given: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and another cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty in the predictions. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. (Schedule listings adapted from James Howell's site)

This installment covers teams from #36 to #40. To see the full list, click here.

36. Virginia Tech Hokies     (pre-season AP #17, USA-coaches #15)

2007 Results:    Record: 11-3    Bowl: lost to Kansas 24-21 (Orange Bowl)  Poll finish: #9 AP  #9 USA 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #14    Success: #11    Combined: #13
The Hokies face losses on both offense and especially, defense. But the most interesting development is the redshirting of co-tandem QB Tyrod Taylor.
Offense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #42   Adj. Rush Yards: #61  Adj. Pass Yards: #91
Virginia Tech's off-season problems had a name, and it was Brandon. Brandon Ore, last year's leading rusher (9 TDs), was kicked off the team this spring; reserve guard Brandon Holland transferred to a Div II school; and super-fast junior wide receiver Brandon Dillard ruptured his achilles tendon this summer. The latter is just the tip of the iceberg for this team's receiver issues: the four top pass catchers are gone from last year; projected starter Zach Luckett has just been suspended indefinitely; and recruit Marcus Davis will be out with injuries as well. Finding someone to throw to will be a big problem for returning QB Sean Glennon. Glennon passed for 1800 yards and 12 TDs last season, while Tyrod Taylor added 900 yards and 5 TDs and ran for 400 yds and 6 TDs. Glennon won the starting job again, and Taylor has opted to redshirt rather than play the two-QB system that had worked so well late in the 2007 campaign. The offensive line, dismal at pass protection last year, should improve with four starters back, but the running game needs a running back. Right now Kenny Lewis and Jahre Cheeseman, both hurt during the spring, are out in front of a wide-open competition.
Defense (4 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #4   Adj. Rush Def: #22    Adj. Pass Def: #13
As much confusion as there is on offense, the defense is pretty straightforward: seven NFL-level players are lost but four of similar talent return. The front four loses three starters including Chris Ellis (8.5 sacks) but Orion Martin (6.5 sacks) is back. Two of three linebackers—#1 and #2 tacklers Xavier Abidi and Vince Hall—are gone but starter Cam Martin returns. And the secondary loses two starters, including All-American corner Brandon Flowers (5 interceptions), but Macho Harris (5 INT also) and Kam Chancellor will keep the unit strong. The defense's rankings in rushing and passing tend to not stack up to the scoring defense ranking in Virginia Tech's case due to excellent special teams, which makes both the offense and the defense look better.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Punter Brent Bowden averaged 42.5 gross and 37 net; he's back but solid kicker Jed Dunlevy must be replaced. Head coach Frank Beamer always finds an answer on special teams, and replacement Matt Waldron or Dustin Keys will likely do a good job.
Recruiting: Recruiting has been good the last two years, both times just inside the top 25 nationally. The most interesting competition on the team is running back, where six players are in the mix. Recruiting at the position has been especially good lately, and three candidates are from the '07 and '08 classes. Tops from '07 is Darren Evans, who rushed for 61 touchdowns his senior year of high school. Josh Oglesby is another redshirt from that class, and currently may be ahead of Evans in the pecking order. And from '08, top recruit Ryan Williams still has a lot to learn but might eventually be the best of all of them.

Virginia Tech 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	N	East Carolina	57%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	Furman	75%	W
9/13	Sat	vs.	*Georgia Tech	63%	W
9/20	Sat	@	*North Carolina	46%	L
9/27	Sat	@	Nebraska	50%	W
10/4	Sat	vs.	Western Kentucky	76%	W
10/18	Sat	@	*Boston College	50%	L
10/25	Sat	@	*Florida State	45%	L
11/6	Thu	vs.	*Maryland	50%	L
11/13	Thu	@	*Miami (Florida)	59%	W
11/22	Sat	vs.	*Duke	66%	W
11/29	Sat	vs.	*Virginia	62%	W
Favored: 8-4  Projected: 7-5

2008 Season Outlook It only took two games for 2007 to look like a disappointment, and the rest of the season to redeem it as a huge success. After beating East Carolina 17-7, the Hokies were considered suspect. In truth, the Pirates were a decent team last year. But after a 48-7 loss to LSU, there was legitimate fear that a long season might be ahead.

Instead, Tech rallied for five wins, mostly over easy teams. When the Hokies blew the Boston College game in the last two minutes, expectations were lowered again. And again the team rallied, going 4-0 against a tough schedule to make the ACC title game, which they won, beating B.C. in the rematch with a BCS bowl on the line. Tech played Kansas close but made a few costly mistakes and finished 11-3, the 7th season of double-digit wins in the last 9 years.

This season could be another winner, despite the lower ranking and talent loss. The Hokies rank 5th in the ACC by my numbers, but avoid playing Clemson and get Maryland at home. Road losses to UNC and FSU are the only certain blemishes, but three very close games (Nebraska, B.C., and Maryland) are tossups. Lose all three and they go 7-5, but I think that's a worst-case. The Hokies will win some combination of these close games, with luck matching last season's 10-2. If they win the Coastal Division they still won't win the ACC, so to get double-digits again in 2008, they might have to win their bowl game.

37. North Carolina Tar Heels

2007 Results:    Record: 4-8    Bowl: n/a   Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #65   Success: #80    Combined: #66
Is Butch Davis engineering another turnaround in the college football world?
Offense (10 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #80    Adj. Rush Yards: #97    Adj. Pass Yards: #62
North Carolina is one of those teams for whom the concept of "returning starters" is muddy. By strict accounting, 8 players in the lineup are returning starters. Looked at another way, just one half-time starting lineman is missing from the '07 1st string, so 10 1/2 returnees would be just as accurate. And how does one count Johnny White, last year's leading rusher, who moved to defense? I dock the offense 1/2 starter, since he's still on the team and several other returning backs started games, too. But let's look at who returns: QB T.J. Yates, recovered from shoulder surgery that slowed him last season leading to his 18 INT total (he still managed over 2,500 yards and 14 TDs). All receivers who had more than 100 yards (including Hakeem Nicks, who was just shy of 1,000), and all backs (save White) who rushed for more than 100 yards. The offensive line returns four full-time starters plus a half-time starter, and should be much stronger this year. In all, a vast improvement is expected, particularly since 9 2nd-stringers are back as well.
Defense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #48    Adj. Rush Def: #57    Adj. Pass Def: #71
The accounting on the defensive side is tough, too. Only four full-time starters return, but just three full-time starters are lost. Cobbling together the significant part-time starters into a representative amount yields the result of 7; your mileage may vary. The most complete area, by far, is the secondary, where essentially all four starters return: safeties Trimane Goddard and Deunta Williams and corners Kendrick Burney and Charles Brown, and they add former RB White to the mix, too. The linebacking corps has a lot of experience back, though they lose star Durell Mapp, who had twice as many tackles last year (132) as the #2 tackler, and possible starter Wesley Flagg was kicked off the team. Kentwan Balmer (#2 tackler) and Hilee Taylor (10.5 sacks) are lost from the line, but end E.J. Wilson returns. In all, 9 of the top 12 tacklers are back.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Punter Terrence Brown is back after netting an excellent 36 yards per punt. But kicker Conner Barth, who hit 16 of 18 field goals, has to be replaced. Redshirt freshman Jay Wooten is first in line with soph Trase Jones and Barth's brother Casey also in the running.
Recruiting: Butch Davis can recruit, no doubt about that. With the 2007 class nearly in the top ten and the '08 class just outside the top 25, UNC is building a reservoir of solid talent. New players to watch this year include Quinton Coples and JUCO Joseph Townsend, either of whom may start on defensive line.

UNC 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	McNeese State	68%	W
9/11	Thu	@	Rutgers	43%	L
9/20	Sat	vs.	*Virginia Tech	52%	W
9/27	Sat	@	*Miami (Florida)	59%	W
10/4	Sat	vs.	Connecticut	48%	L
10/11	Sat	vs.	Notre Dame	64%	W
10/18	Sat	@	*Virginia	55%	W
10/25	Sat	vs.	*Boston College	57%	W
11/8	Sat	vs.	*Georgia Tech	64%	W
11/15	Sat	@	*Maryland	43%	L
11/22	Sat	vs.	*North Carolina State	71%	W
11/29	Sat	@	*Duke	59%	W
Favored: 9-3  Projected: 7-5

2008 Season Outlook The Tar Heels showed progress last year beyond the single extra win. The offense scored a lot more, the defense yielded a lot less, and six of the eight losses were by a touchdown or less.

This year the non-conference schedule is tough again, with two of the better Big East foes and an improved Notre Dame. Still, I see North Carolina having an excellent year, a dramatic improvement from 2008. Although only the #6 team in the ACC, their schedule is such that they could go 7-1 in league play which would probably put them in the title game. Overall, nine wins is reasonable, and those three losses aren't foregone conclusions. There are some close wins, too, hence the 7-5 cumulative projection; and some of these opponents (Virginia Tech, Miami, Notre Dame) I rate lower than most do so bowl eligibility even is not guaranteed if they lose a lot of close ones like last season. But they'll improve their record over 2007, even if it's just an additional game, and I think they'll do a whole lot better, turning their 4-8 record into 8-4.

38. Fresno State Bulldogs     (pre-season #25 USA-Coaches)

2007 Results:    Record: 9-4    Bowl: beat Georgia Tech 40-28 (Humanitarian) Poll finish: #30 USA 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #63    Success: #48    Combined: #62
Fresno State is favored by many to win the WAC; can they make a BCS run?
Offense (10 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #56   Adj. Rush Yards: #25    Adj. Pass Yards: #73
The Bulldog offense favors the run, and three of their top four backs return, including ex-freshman wonder Ryan Matthews (866 yards, 14 TDs). Not that the pass is neglected; quarterback Tom Branstadder threw for 2,654 yards and 15 TDs against 5 INTs. The two top pass catchers, Marlon Moore and Mackey-nominated tight end Bear Pascoe, return as well as starters Seyi Ajirotutu and Jason Crawley among others. Behind a strong line that returns four starters and allowed only 18 sacks, the passing numbers should increase as well as the rushing total. Almost every reserve on offense returns (18 of 22 2nd-3rd string) so the unit is very deep as well.
Defense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #70    Adj. Rush Def: #98    Adj. Pass Def: #30
The rushing defense needs the most improvement, and though the front four loses two starters including Tyler Clutts (who aided the secondary by recording 7.5 sacks), returners include Jon Monga (6.5 sacks), Wilson Ramos, and several backups, plus they gain transfers from USC and Miami. The message is mixed at linebacker; all-time Bulldog great Marcus Riley, leading tackler last year, is gone but Ben Jacobs (#2 tackler as a freshman) returns. So does Quaadir Brown, though there was enough concern during the summer that he wouldn't that Chris Carter moved to LB from DE. The secondary is the sturdiest area; the group was good last season considering the pass-happy opposition they faced, and three starters return. They need to vastly improve their rock-bottom interception numbers, however. Again, a large majority of the '07 reserves returns to the defense.
Kicking Game (0 RS): Fresno State needs a new kicker and punter; last season's were average in quality. Redshirt freshman Kevin Goessling and soph Robert Malone are slated to take over, respectively.
Recruiting: Pat Hill's recruiting continues to improve. Though still just barely in the top half nationwide, for the WAC he is doing very well, and this year's class may be better than advertised. Despite the Bulldogs' remarkable depth, Hill plans to play a lot of true freshmen this year, including Ebahn Feathers, a fast, option-style QB. A number of other true freshmen will see time on the offensive line.

Fresno State 2008 schedule & forecast
9/1	Mon	@	Rutgers	43%	L
9/13	Sat	vs.	Wisconsin	52%	W
9/20	Sat	@	Toledo	65%	W
9/27	Sat	@	UCLA	51%	W
10/4	Sat	vs.	*Hawaii	65%	W
10/11	Sat	vs.	*Idaho	78%	W
10/25	Sat	@	*Utah State	69%	W
11/1	Sat	@	*Louisiana Tech	67%	W
11/7	Fri	vs.	*Nevada	68%	W
11/15	Sat	vs.	*New Mexico State	84%	W
11/21	Fri	@	*San Jose State	71%	W
11/28	Fri	@	*Boise State	46%	L
Favored: 10-2   Projected: 8-4

2008 Season Outlook Last year saw a favorable turnaround from an anomalous losing season in '06. Though the Bulldogs dropped two games (Texas A&M and Oregon) to the revolving slate of BCS opponents they face annually, they won four straight to put them at 5-2, already better than '06. They tore through their WAC schedule, beating Big Twelve's Kansas State along the way, and losing only competitive games to the current powers, Boise State and Hawaii. Fresno's most prominent win came over ACC foe Georgia Tech in the Humanitarian Bowl, finally waking the football nation up to the fact that they were back.

This year's BCS opponents are Rutgers, Wisconsin, and UCLA, with the Badgers courteously coming to visit. I think they have a good shot to beat Wisconsin at home and UCLA on the road, though both will be close. In the WAC, I think they'll dominate like last year, beating Hawaii, but losing the road game to Boise State. This would make the Bulldogs 10-2 in 2008, their season bookended by losses in game one and game 12. Take away Wisconsin and UCLA and they still repeat this season's record. Give them a split on those games and call it 9-3, but they definitely have an opportunity this season to both get the nation's attention as well as win the WAC.

39. Boise State Broncos

2007 Results:    Record: 10-3   Bowl: L to E. Carolina 41-38 (Hawaii Bowl) Poll finish: #30 AP  #29 USA 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #29    Success: #42    Combined: #31
Every year Boise State has a chance to go undefeated. What are their odds this season?
Offense (5 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #20   Adj. Rush Yards: #66    Adj. Pass Yards: #16
Taylor Tharp became the prototypical Broncos quarterback, throwing for massive yardage (3,340) with efficiency (68%) while scoring a lot (30 TDs) safely (11 INTs). The running game was less effective last year but with Tharp gone, Ian Johnson (1,041 yds 16 TDs) now a senior, and several other backs returning, the rushing totals should increase. The new QB, whether it's senior Bush Hamdan or redshirt frosh Kellen Moore [who was just named starter], has a positive in the receiving corps, which returns Jeremy Childs (82 rec, 1,045 yds, 9 TDs, suspended for first game) as well as Austin Pettis (6 TDs), FB/TE Richie Brockel (4 TDs) and many more. But the offensive line returns only one starter, right guard Andrew Woodruff, so the new QB might need a quick release.
Defense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #57    Adj. Rush Def: #54    Adj. Pass Def: #25
Though two starters are gone, the defensive line should improve this year as Mike Williams (6 sacks) and Joe Bozikovich return, while end Ryan Winterswyk had the most tackles plus 5.5 sacks. The linebackers should improve with three senior starters back plus quality backups for '08 that are pushing the starters. Leading tackler Kyle Gingg and Tim Brady return along with 3-year starter Dallas Dobbs (#3 tackler) though soph Derrell Acrey was starting ahead of him in the spring, and now redshirt freshman Aaron Tevis is ahead of Acrey. The pass defense was their strong suit last year, and though the secondary must replace two full-time starters in Marty Tadman and Orlando Scandrick, players responsible for 75% of Boise's sacks last year return. The latter are the only missing players out of 2007's top ten tacklers.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Kyle Brotzman is a great kicker and an excellent punter as well. Hitting 16 of 18 field goals and all 66 (Boise scores a lot) extra points, and averaging 44.5 yards a punt while putting 9 of 21 attempts inside the 20. But he's not listed as the starting punter, instead that honor goes to Brad Elkin, who averaged a dismal 37.5. The team still netted 37.3 per punt...now, which punter do you figure was more responsible for that? Which one would you want for your team?
Recruiting: Though Boise State doesn't rank even in the top half of schools in recruiting, they manage to stock up on talent year after year out in Idaho. Two replacement starters on the line, as well as the quarterback, may be redshirt freshmen from the 2007 class, and Aaron Tevis beat out a returning starter at linebacker. They found several good linebackers this year, including one from Idaho, Byron Hout.

Boise State 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Idaho State	93%	W
9/13	Sat	vs.	Bowling Green State	70%	W
9/20	Sat	@	Oregon	32%	L
10/1	Wed	vs.	*Louisiana Tech	74%	W
10/11	Sat	@	Southern Mississippi	60%	W
10/17	Fri	vs.	*Hawaii	65%	W
10/24	Fri	@	*San Jose State	71%	W
11/1	Sat	@	*New Mexico State	77%	W
11/8	Sat	vs.	*Utah State	76%	W
11/15	Sat	@	*Idaho	71%	W
11/22	Sat	@	*Nevada	61%	W
11/28	Fri	vs.	*Fresno State	53%	W
Favored: 11-1   Projected: 8-4

2008 Season Outlook Last year the always-sought-after undefeated season ended early with the loss to Washington. But after that Boise started reeling off the wins, including a crazy 69-67 quadruple overtime victory at Nevada. By the time of the showdown with Hawaii they were 10-1. Unfortunately they faced the Warriors in Honolulu; in Boise they would have smoked them, but not in Hawaii. They returned to the islands for the aptly-named Hawaii bowl, and maybe relaxed too much after listening to the oddsmakers that made them one of the biggest bowl favorites. The Broncos found their hands more than full with a charged-up East Carolina team that upset them 41-38.

Again faced with the typically weak WAC schedule, the Broncos will be one of the favorites for the title. Last year's champ Hawaii is down, and Boise meets them at home. This year's favorite (according to most) is Fresno State, who is much improved but not necessarily better than Boise; they play in Idaho as well, and I think the Broncos should win that one, too, and win the WAC title. As for BCS hopes, two things make this unlikely. One, the Broncos aren't quite as good as they were last year. Two, they play Oregon on the road, and I don't expect them to win that one. Still, an 11-1 season is a real possibility, and though the projection conservatively allows for a handful of upsets, the Fresno State game is the only other big challenge on the slate (though Southern Miss could be tough and Nevada's probably itching for the rematch). If the new QB doesn't come along and/or the offensive line never gels, then they could fall to 8-4 but I expect at least 9 or 10 wins this season...though not 12.

40. Colorado Buffaloes

2007 Results:    Record: 6-7    Bowl: Lost to Alabama 30-24 (Independence Bowl)  Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #52    Success: #47    Combined: #53
The Buffaloes were one of the most improved teams in 2007, and will be again in 2008; it just might not show up in their record.
Offense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #44    Adj. Rush Yards: #51    Adj. Pass Yards: #42
Coach's son and starting quarterback Cody Hawkins improved as his freshman season went on, throwing for 400+ yards in three of the last five games and reaching 3,000 yards and 22 TDs. He threw 17 interceptions and completed just 57%, but those stats improved later as well. He returns along with last year's two top receivers plus tight end Riar Geer (playing again after being suspended during the summer). At running back the slot is left open by the departure of 1,000 yard rusher Hugh Charles, but they have the nation's #1 running back recruit in Darrell Scott who may start right away. The offensive line is a question, losing three starters but returning center Daniel Sanders and two others who started half-time.
Defense (7.5 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #54    Adj. Rush Def: #47    Adj. Pass Def: #37
George Hypolite anchors a defensive line with three starters and scads of depth. They suffer a huge loss at linebacker: All-American Jordon Dizon, who led the team in tackles with a whopping 173. But Jeff Smart (#2 tackler with 89) and Brad Jones return to soften the blow. The secondary loses two starters, star Terrence Wheatley (5 INT) and Benjamin Burney, who will redshirt due to injuries. Two full-time starters return plus Cha'pelle Brown, who started when the Buffs deployed the nickel D (hence the 1/2).
Kicking Game (1 RS): Average punter Matt DiLalio returns, but the Buffs need a kicker to replace Kevin Eberhart. Transfer Aric Goodman or redshirt frosh Jameson Davis will take over.
Recruiting: Hawkins' recruiting has been good (beyond recruiting his son) and got even better in 2008, with a top 25 class including #1 ranked running back Darrell Scott. Others from that class that should play right away are OL Maxwell Tuioti-Mariner and JUCO LB Shaun Mohler. Redshirt freshman debuting from the 2007 class include Matthew Bahr, Shawn Daniels and Blake Behrens, all vying for a spot on the O-line. But several others recent recruits won't play for another year: Drew Hudgins, Mike Iltis, and Jon Major are out with ACL injuries, while Markques Simas, a future star at wide receiver, and linebacker Sione Tau are academically ineligible. Another LB, Lynn Katoa, will redshirt due to legal troubles.

Colorado 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	N	Colorado State	68%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	Eastern Washington	69%	W
9/18	Thu	vs.	West Virginia	36%	L
9/27	Sat	vs.	Florida State	51%	W
10/4	Sat	vs.	*Texas	43%	L
10/11	Sat	@	*Kansas	27%	L
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Kansas State	56%	W
10/25	Sat	@	*Missouri	29%	L
11/1	Sat	@	*Texas A&M	48%	L
11/8	Sat	vs.	*Iowa State	71%	W
11/15	Sat	vs.	*Oklahoma State	53%	W
11/28	Fri	@	*Nebraska	49%	L
Favored: 6-6  Projected: 6-6

2008 Season Outlook 2007 was better than 2006 in almost every aspect. Six wins instead of two, and several season highlights: beating Colorado State in overtime, beating Oklahoma when the Sooners appeared invincible, trouncing Nebraska 65-51. There were some games to forget, too, like the 55-10 loss to Missouri and subsequent fall to Iowa State. The Independence Bowl was a disappointing end but the season showed good progress and great promise.

This season will feature a lot of close games that will determine the success of the 2008 campaign. Florida State at home, Texas A&M on the road, Oklahoma State, and Nebraska in Lincoln are the tossups. Assuming they split those, another 6-6 year is in store despite the team's improvement. If bad luck or injuries hit, 4-8 is a possibility, and also 8-4 if the team gels. But the cumulative projection stops dead on at 6.0 wins, and that looks like the most likely results. So what will the Buffs have to show for their improvement? They'd have to win their bowl game this year, and they'll still have the element of surprise for 2009, when they'll really be good.

2008 Pre-season rankings: #41-45 - Without McFadden, Arkansas drops

SportsRatings is ranking all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August until the season begins. These rankings are meant to reflect how good the teams might be in 2008 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for each team, and two projected records are given: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and another cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty in the predictions. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. (Schedule listings adapted from James Howell's site)

This installment covers teams from #41 to #45. To see the full list, click here.

41. Arkansas Razorbacks

2007 Results:    Record: 8-5    Bowl: L to Missouri 38-7 (Cotton Bowl)    Poll finish: #31 AP  #39 USA 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #19    Success: #22    Combined: #20
Arkansas is due for an off year after the loss of offensive engine Darren McFadden and a slew of off-field issues hamper the Razorbacks.
Offense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #9    Adj. Rush Yards: #4    Adj. Pass Yards: #109
Most have focused on the loss of Darren McFadden (1,830 yards, 16 TDs, 4 TD passes), and it is daunting for sure, but if Felix Jones (1,162 yards, 11 TDs) had returned, the effect would have been minimized, and some have suggested that Jones might have been the Barry Sanders to McFadden's Thurman Thomas...or at least the Cedric Benson to his Ricky Williams. In any case both were first round draft choices, leaving the cupboard bare for the Razorbacks. Much-maligned Casey Dick (1,695 yards, 18 TDs, 11 INTs) returns at quarterback, but he had some gutsy plays in the win over LSU and will do better than people expect in an offense that will have to rely less on the run. Whether a pass-oriented offense works depends not only on Dick's improvement but also finding receivers. Starters London Crawford and Andrew Davie return at WR and TE, but the four top pass-catchers (including McFadden, Jones, and fullback Peyton Hillis) are gone. TE Ben Cleveland returns from '06 to help. The line features three returning starters, but it will have to adjust to primarily blocking for Dick rather than opening for McFadden and Jones.
Defense (4 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #52    Adj. Rush Def: #66    Adj. Pass Def: #22
Arkansas' losses tended to be high-scoring affairs, thanks to the productive offense and mediocre D. The rushing defense was the biggest problem and there is good news as the front four is stocked, with essentially 3 1/2 starters back. There's trouble at linebacker though. Things looked good with Freddie Fairchild and half-time starter Elston Forte back, but Fairchild was dismissed over the summer. Furthermore, projected starter Wendel Davis had law trouble plus a knee injury to deal with, while backup Freddie Burton is suspended for the first two games for DUI. Then there's the secondary, which was great in '07 but loses all four starters, including leading tackler Matt Hewitt. There is depth from reserves, but all in all Arkansas loses their top six tacklers and the seventh, defensive end Ernest Mitchell, had legal trouble (and knee woes) himself this summer but seems to have emerged unscathed.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Kicker and punter Alex Tejada and Jeremy Davis return; both are solid if unspectacular.
Recruiting: This is Bobby Petrino's first year, so some of the recruits were Houston Nutt's; this may be why the last two classes ranked about the same (30th or so). They did get QB Ryan Mallett as a transfer from Michigan, but he won't play until '09. Contributing this year from the '08 class may be running backs De'Anthony Curtis, a potential starter, and Dennis Johnson, while Joe Adams should see time at wide receiver.

Arkansas 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Western Illinois	76%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	Louisiana-Monroe	71%	W
9/13	Sat	@	Texas	36%	L
9/20	Sat	vs.	*Alabama	46%	L
10/4	Sat	vs.	*Florida	28%	L
10/11	Sat	@	*Auburn	37%	L
10/18	Sat	@	*Kentucky	43%	L
10/25	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi	59%	W
11/1	Sat	vs.	Tulsa	59%	W
11/8	Sat	@	*South Carolina	36%	L
11/22	Sat	@	*Mississippi State	47%	L
11/29	Sat	vs.	*Louisiana State	43%	L
Favored: 4-8  Projected: 6-6

2008 Season Outlook Arkansas endured a successful but frustrating 2007, where it seemed the defense couldn't make Darren McFadden's accomplishments pay off with key wins. They opening win over Troy was actually one of the better games of the season, but then tight losses to Alabama and Kentucky put the Razorbacks in a 1-2 hole. Two creampuff victories were followed by a 9-7 loss to Auburn, the one game where both the offense did poorly and the defense did well. Three more wins made them 6-3, but it still didn't seem like the team was clicking, especially after a 34-13 loss to Tennessee. But two games later, the triple overtime win over #1 LSU gave fans a game to identify the season with and an 8-4 record. The bowl game against Missouri was best forgotten.

This year the SEC wins will be even harder to come by. A couple of easy wins at the beginning lead right into a game at Texas, then Alabama, Florida, and Auburn are next. Mississippi and Tulsa look like wins but that's it. They could beat Mississippi State, or Alabama, Kentucky, or even LSU, so 5-7 is probably about right but 6-6 looks like a ceiling for this transition/rebuilding season.

42. Michigan State Spartans

2007 Results:    Record: 7-6   Bowl: lost to Boston College 24-21 (Champs Sports)  Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #40    Success: #54    Combined: #42
Michigan State lost six games last year, all of them close at the end. They should be just as good this year—can they win the close ones and improve their record in '08? 
Offense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #24   Adj. Rush Yards: #14    Adj. Pass Yards: #65
The two keys to the Spartan offense are both back: running back Javon Ringer, who rushed for 1,447 yards and 6 TDs and added 300 receiving yards; and quarterback Brian Hoyer (2,725 yards, 20TDs, 11 INT). Ringer is actually the leading return receiver, as Hoyer loses 14 TDs worth in Devin Thomas and Kellen Davis, but starters Mark Dell and Deon Curry are back. The offensive line is sturdy enough, with three of the five players with the most starts in '07 back, to keep the offense productive.
Defense (5 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #66    Adj. Rush Def: #48    Adj. Pass Def: #59
The front four returns just one full-time starter, but others with starting experience return and Cincinnati transfer Trevor Anderson has already done well enough to earn a starting spot at end. The linebacking unit has two returnees, including leading tackler Greg Jones. The secondary was just average last year but much experience and two starters return including #2 tackler Kendell Davis-Clark. On the downside the passing defense suffers from the losses on the line, where top sack artists Jonal Saint-Dic (10) and Ervin Baldwin (8.5) are gone, and during fall camp expected starting safety Roderick Jenrette was "told to take a leave of absence" to handle an undisclosed personal issue. Bottom line, he may not return.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Brett Swinson and Aaron Bates are both adequate at kicker and punter and return for the fall.
Recruiting: There was no big improvement in recruiting from John L. Smith's last year to Mark Dantonio's first, perhaps due to the transition; both classes ranked around #50, decent by I-A standards but not BCS conferences. But now that Dantonio is settled in, that may change; the early indications for 2009 show that MSU might have a breakthrough class on its hands, perhaps even in the top ten. The big catch of 2008 was receiver Fred Smith, who has shown good ability in practice and will be in the lineup as a true freshman.

Michigan State 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	@	California	44%	L
9/6	Sat	vs.	Eastern Michigan	72%	W
9/13	Sat	vs.	Florida Atlantic	61%	W
9/20	Sat	vs.	Notre Dame	62%	W
9/27	Sat	@	*Indiana	54%	W
10/4	Sat	vs.	*Iowa	58%	W
10/11	Sat	@	*Northwestern	56%	W
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Ohio State	24%	L
10/25	Sat	@	*Michigan	44%	L
11/1	Sat	vs.	*Wisconsin	50%	W
11/8	Sat	vs.	*Purdue	57%	W
11/22	Sat	@	*Penn State	38%	L
Favored: 8-4  Projected: 6-6

2008 Season Outlook For the last several years Michigan State has followed a pattern: start with several wins and look promising, then lose a "turning point" game, drop a lot of games in the Big Ten and finish with a middling record. Last year followed the plan, with four wins including Pitt and Notre Dame, then lost to Wisconsin by three points (third year in a row the first loss was by 3) in a game the could have won, and followed with a loss to Northwestern at home. In all they dropped five of six before recovering to beat Purdue and Penn State, finishing strong for the first time since 1999. They played Boston College pretty well but mistakes doomed them.

The Spartans six losses were by 3, 7 (OT), 7, 7 (OT), 4, and 3 points. They also won two close games and the Ohio State game wasn't really a 7 point game, but if they'd gone 4-4 instead of 2-6 in these they would have been a more representative 9-4 last year. And that's what they could do this year. After a tough road game at Cal, there are six winnable games in a row, followed by Ohio State and Michigan. They can beat Wisconsin, though that's another tough one, and Purdue, before finishing at Penn State. Overall the wins are tight enough to project a cumulative 6-6, but I see another winning record and bowl game for this team.

43. Illinois Fighting Illini     (pre-season: #20 AP, #19 USA-Coaches)

2007 Results:    Record: 9-4    Bowl: Lost to USC, 49-17 (Rose Bowl)    Poll finish: #20 AP  #18 USA
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #27    Success: #26    Combined: #27
The Illini won't be as good as last year, but can still have a great year in the Big Ten.
Offense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #32   Adj. Rush Yards: #6    Adj. Pass Yards: #108
Illinois had two key players in 2007. One was Rashard Mendenhall, who carried the team early on and finished with 1,681 rushing yards and 17 TDs. Coming on strong in the 2nd half of the season was quarterback Isiah "Juice" Williams. His passing was only adequate (57%, 1,743 yards, 12/13 TD/INT), but when his running game became more of a threat later on (he finished with 755 yards, 7 TDs) his total output increased, and he led the win over Ohio State by throwing for 4 touchdowns. They lose Mendenhall but Juice is back, and since he noticeably improved during the course of his sophomore season he should be even better this year. He has favorite target Arrelious Benn along with several others back, but starter Kyle Hudson recently quit the team. With uncertain production at running back, more pressure will be put on Williams. The offensive line should be okay, with three of five full-time starters returning, but one of the losses is 1st team all-american Martin O'Donnell at left guard and possible starter Brandon Jordan evidently didn't make grades.
Defense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #33    Adj. Rush Def: #36    Adj. Pass Def: #95
The defensive line, which did a good job stopping the run and great job pressuring the pass (39 sacks), is strong again this year, returning starters Will Davis, David Lindquist and Doug Pilcher, while Derek Walker and others have starting experience. Recently, backup Sirod Williams was lost for the season due to injury, still leaving Illinois with seven of the top ten lineman. At linebacker, the Illini lose the team's two top tacklers from '07, J Leman and Antonio Steele. The secondary loses two of four full-time starters, Justin Harrison (#3 tackler) and Kevin Mitchell (5 INTs), but Vontae Davis (leading returning tackler) and Dere Hicks are back. In all the Illini lose five of their top seven tacklers, and once again the rushing defense should be a lot more solid than the passing D.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Mediocre punter Anthony Santella returns, but excellent kicker Jason Reda (16 of 18 field goals, 3 of 3 50-yarders) will be replaced by either true frosh Derek Dimke or junior Mike Cklamovski.
Recruiting: Say what you will about Ron Zook's coaching but the man can recruit. The last two classes have been solidly top 25. Many key performers last year (Benn, for one) were from the '07 class and redshirt freshmen are prominent in the projected 2-deep. Impacters from the '08 class may include JUCO Daniel Dufrene, probable starter at running back; Donsay Hardeman, who could start at safety; and Cordale Scott, who along with other recruits gives the receiver corps depth this year.

Illinois 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	N	Missouri	31%	L
9/6	Sat	vs.	Eastern Illinois	85%	W
9/13	Sat	vs.	Louisiana-Lafayette	78%	W
9/27	Sat	@	*Penn State	38%	L
10/4	Sat	@	*Michigan	43%	L
10/11	Sat	vs.	*Minnesota	66%	W
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Indiana	60%	W
10/25	Sat	@	*Wisconsin	43%	L
11/1	Sat	vs.	*Iowa	58%	W
11/8	Sat	N	Western Michigan	64%	W
11/15	Sat	vs.	*Ohio State	23%	L
11/22	Sat	@	*Northwestern	56%	W
Favored: 7-5  Projected: 6-6

2008 Season Outlook The opening loss to Missouri didn't portend the season that the Illini had, but the close game (40-34) demonstrated that the Illini were not the doormat team of recent years. Neither did wins over Western Illinois or Syracuse prove much of anything. But with a win at Indiana—only the Illini's third Big Ten victory post-2002—and especially for beating Penn State and Wisconsin, the nation was put on notice: Illinois was not only good, but was going to compete for the Big Ten title.

The Iowa game was a setback, and one that furthered the notion that Zook is a recruiter but not a coach; Zook took several 3rd-down penalties instead of forcing 4th down, allowing Iowa to score on one occasion, and another penalty called back an Illinois touchdown. The 10-6 loss was followed by a loss to Michigan, and wins over Ball State and Minnesota, before the showdown with Ohio State. Juice Williams was fantastic in confusing the normally air-tight Ohio State defense leading to the upset in Columbus. Illinois finished 9-3 and went to the Rose Bowl when OSU was selected for the BCS championship game. USC throttled Illinois as most expected, 49-17, a down note but one that didn't spoil a dream season and dramatic turnaround from 2-10 to 9-4.

There's not much uncertainty in the schedule this year; the Illini are either strong favorites or big underdogs in each game, leading to a 7-5 finish. The games vs. Missouri, at Penn State, at Michigan, at Wisconsin, and at home vs. Ohio State are likely losses, while all of the wins are fairly certain. There is slightly more upside; Michigan or Wisconsin could be beat, so 8-4 might be the next mostly likely outcome, but matching last year's record would be tough.

44. Mississippi State Bulldogs

2007 Results:    Record: 8-5    Bowl: beat UCF 10-3 (Liberty Bowl)    Poll finish: #33 AP  #34 USA 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #57    Success: #27    Combined: #55
The Bulldogs are finally on the right track, but the SEC is always a tough place to be.
Offense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #77   Adj. Rush Yards: #64  Adj. Pass Yards: #60
Even the key returnees on Mississippi State's offense have room for improvement.Anthony Dixon rushed for over 1,000 yards and 14 touchdowns, but averaged just 3.7 per carry. Wesley Carroll threw for 1,392 yards and 9 TDs but completed only 52.5%. Jamayel Smith returns at wide receiver and the fullback position is solid, but overall the offense never clicked last season. Much of that can be attributed to having a true freshman at quarterback after Carroll replaced injured Mike Henig. Things should go smoother this year, especially if the offensive line improves; it returns just two starters after Michael Brown was kicked off the team by coach Sylvester Croom.
Defense (8 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #31   Adj. Rush Def: #44    Adj. Pass Def: #7
The defense came up big in Mississippi State's upset wins last year. The rushing defense was pretty standard most of the year, and loses two starters, but they shut down Kevin Smith in the bowl game against UCF, and if they can even approach that they'll be fine. At linebacker two starters, the team's leading tacklers from last season Jamar Chaney and Domonic Douglas, return along with backup Jamon Hughes, '07's #4 tackler, while reserve Athony Littlejohn quit the team, then returned in summer. Almost the entire corps is back at safety and corner, with six players who started 7 or more games last year returning. Led by free safety (and kick returner) Derek Pegues (5 INTs), the secondary should be awesome, and if the D-line still had pass rusher Titus Brown (8 sacks) the Bulldogs could have had the best pass defense in the country in '08.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Kicker Adam Carlson (10 of 13 FGs) and punter Blake McAdams (39.3 ave) return after decent performances last season.
Recruiting: Croom is building a good program in Starkville out of top 40 recruiting classes. JUCOs Phillip Freeman and Tyson Lee should backup at right tackle and quarterback. Redshirt freshman Robert Elliot may be Dixon's backup at tailback.

Mississippi State 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	@	Louisiana Tech	66%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	SE Louisiana	86%	W
9/13	Sat	vs.	*Auburn	43%	L
9/20	Sat	@	Georgia Tech	54%	W
9/27	Sat	@	*Louisiana State	35%	L
10/11	Sat	vs.	*Vanderbilt	60%	W
10/18	Sat	@	*Tennessee	38%	L
10/25	Sat	vs.	Middle Tennessee	71%	W
11/1	Sat	vs.	*Kentucky	50%	L
11/15	Sat	@	*Alabama	38%	L
11/22	Sat	vs.	*Arkansas	52%	W
11/28	Fri	@	*Mississippi	51%	W
Favored: 7-5  Projected: 6-6

2008 Season Outlook It wasn't too long ago that Mississippi State was though of as fodder for the SEC. Even early last season, when LSU beat them 45-0, this perception stuck. But after a 19-14 win at Auburn, things began to change. Expected losses to South Carolina, Tennessee, and West Virginia put them at 4-3, an improved but still footnote team in the league. Then they upset Kentucky 31-14, opening some eyes, and Alabama 17-12 the next week, and people woke up: this was becoming a really strong program, one that the SEC would have to reckon with. Finishing 7-5 with a win over Ole Miss and winning a bowl game put the icing on the cake. Coach Croom started to get unanimous respect around the country.

This year the offense can be better if Carroll matures and Dixon fulfills his potential, which is scary. The defense should be awesome. In short, the team will be a lot better but whether they get more wins depends on the schedule. The Bulldogs should have a season similar to last year's, around 7-5. The tough-to-call games all happen at the end, so if they haven't come together as a team, a losing record might be in store with losses to Arkansas and at Mississippi. But if they've made advancements, they could win the Kentucky tossup and go 8-4. The odds say that a bowl game is the most likely outcome.

45. Texas Christian Horned Frogs

2007 Results:    Record: 8-5    Bowl: Beat Houston 20-13(OT) (Texas Bowl)    Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #48    Success: #58    Combined: #51
Last year's hopes went south fast, but the team recovered nicely. Will this be a better year still?
Offense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #74   Adj. Rush Yards: #46    Adj. Pass Yards: #55
The offense returns a fair amount of production along with a strong offensive line. Quarterback Andy Dalton was erratic as a freshman, with 10 TDs and 11 INTs, but should be improved this year. Starter Aaron Brown returns at running back, though he was injured last year and was the #2 rusher to Joseph Turner, but all the top backs remain on the roster. And although no starter returns among the receiving corps since Donald Massey was ruled ineligible, production was spread pretty evenly among the starters and backups, and tight end Shea Reagan returns. The veteran (three seniors and two juniors) offensive line returns four starters and should hold the offense together.
Defense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #24    Adj. Rush Def: #9    Adj. Pass Def: #35
The defense should be just as good in 2008. Two full-time starters return to the line, plus a part-timer and a full starter from '06, so the strong rushing D should continue. One of two linebackers returns in the 4-2-5 scheme, but both Jason Phillips and Robert Henson are on the Butkus watchlist; with the backups they make up the best squad coach Gary Patterson said he's had in 11 years. And the secondary is stocked with two full-time starters plus Stephen Hodge, a half-time starter last year who had 57 tackles and 8 sacks. Though they lose three of their top four tacklers from '07, there is experience everywhere and the defense should be even better this season.
Kicking Game (0 RS): The Frogs need to replace two great kickers, placekicker Chris Manfredini and punter Derek Wash. Two freshmen—true Ross Evans and redshirt Anson Kelton—are set to take over.
Recruiting: TCU's recruiting never wows the nation. But they get a lot out of their players, that's for sure, often competing for the Mountain West title. This year the hot players are JUCOs Zack Roth and Jason Teague, who will add depth to the already staunch defense.

TCU 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	@	*New Mexico	57%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	Stephen F. Austin	95%	W
9/13	Sat	vs.	Stanford	59%	W
9/20	Sat	@	Southern Methodist	69%	W
9/27	Sat	@	Oklahoma	25%	L
10/4	Sat	vs.	*San Diego State	71%	W
10/11	Sat	@	*Colorado State	62%	W
10/16	Thu	vs.	*Brigham Young	45%	L
10/25	Sat	vs.	*Wyoming	65%	W
11/1	Sat	@	*Nevada-Las Vegas	61%	W
11/6	Thu	@	*Utah	38%	L
11/22	Sat	vs.	*Air Force	68%	W
Favored: 9-3  Projected: 7-5

2008 Season Outlook The BCS dream ended quickly last year, with a 2nd half collapse against Texas and an overtime loss to Air Force, the team was 1-2. Wins over easy competition and close losses to Wyoming, Utah, and BYU kept the record even at 5-5. The Frogs won their last two to finish 7-5, and the bowl victory made them 8-5—good, but not close to what they wanted.

With a fairly accommodating schedule, this team that is marginally better than last year's on paper could do much better. They're underdogs by my account in only three games. Oklahoma notwithstanding, the pre-conference schedule is pretty good. In conference they of course face BYU and Utah, but other than that they should take care of business. The cumulative projection downgrades them to 7-5, but the wins are fairly solid here and 8-4 or 9-3 is what I would expect this team to achieve. A few lucky bounces this time instead of close losses and they could really have a good year.

2008 pre-season rankings: #46-50 - Boston College drops w/o Ryan

SportsRatings is ranking all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August until the season begins. These rankings are meant to reflect how good the teams might be in 2008 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for each team, and two projected records are given: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and another cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty in the predictions. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. (Schedule listings adapted from James Howell's site)

This installment covers teams from #46 to #50. To see the full list, click here.

46. Troy Trojans

2007 Results:    Record: 8-4    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #46    Success: #51    Combined: #45
The best team that didn't go to a bowl in 2007 will be strong again this year. Though the non-conference schedule is daunting, a Sun Belt title is a strong possibility.
Offense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #40   Adj. Rush Yards: #43    Adj. Pass Yards: #30
The Trojans lose their starting quarterback (Omar Haugaboom, 2,975 yards, 18 TDs, 631 net rush yds, 11 TDs), leading rusher Kenny Cattouse (791 yds, 7 TDs, 5.9 ave), and their top two receivers (Gary Banks and Josh Allen, combined: 1,160 yds, 4 TDs). So why might the offense be just as good this year? First off, the entire offensive line from '07 is back—with their backups. Essentially, only one player is missing from the entire 2nd and 3rd string on offense, period. So where there are holes, there are experienced players to fill them. Jamie Hampton will take over at QB, and Dujuan Harris at running back, but there are plenty of options at both positions. Many decent receivers return from the huge stable they keep, and bad-boy rapper Josh Jarboe just transferred in from Oklahoma, though he has to sit out a year.
Defense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #51    Adj. Rush Def: #72    Adj. Pass Def: #28
The front four return three starters and should improve on the rushing defense numbers. Incidentally, those numbers aren't as bad as most people think; they ranked 94th in raw numbers, but that includes games vs. top ten rushing teams Oklahoma State, Arkansas, and LA-Lafayette, as well as Florida and Georgia when Moreno was playing. There are two linebackers in the Troy nickel and the most important one is back: Boris Lee, the team leading tackler and the guy flying in to sack the QB in that cool photo. Three of the five starters return in the secondary, which is good, but they lose two of the best to ever play corner for Troy, 1st-round draft pick Leodis McKelvin, and Elbert Mack (8 INTs in '07).
Kicking Game (0 RS): Even while losing a star QB, top running back, top receivers, and grade A cornerbacks, Coach Larry Blakeney said the biggest hole to fill on the entire team was the loss of punter/kicker Greg Whibbs. He made 16 of 18 FGs last season and averaged over 40 yards per punt, and handled kickoffs as well. Redshirt freshmen Michael Taylor and Will Goggans were listed at the positions after spring.
Recruiting: While Troy's recruiting isn't even in the top half of all schools, it's pretty good for the Sun Belt and Blakeney knows what they need. From the redshirt freshmen at punter and kicker to JUCOs Maurice Greer at running back and Michael Ricks at linebacker, new faces will help out even as the vast majority of lettermen return. Blakeney also gets a lot of excellent players as transfers from BCS schools; Troy has players on the roster from Auburn, Cal, Colorado, FSU, Georgia, Mississippi State and now (with Jarboe) Oklahoma.

Troy 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	@	*Middle Tennessee	63%	W
9/6	Sat	@	Louisiana State	34%	L
9/13	Sat	vs.	Alcorn State	100%	W
9/20	Sat	@	Ohio State	15%	L
9/27	Sat	@	Oklahoma State	42%	L
10/7	Tue	@	*Florida Atlantic	52%	W
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Florida International	81%	W
10/25	Sat	@	*North Texas	76%	W
11/1	Sat	@	*Louisiana-Monroe	62%	W
11/8	Sat	vs.	*Western Kentucky	72%	W
11/22	Sat	vs.	*Louisiana-Lafayette	77%	W
12/6	Sat	vs.	*Arkansas State	71%	W
Favored: 9-3   Projected: 7-5

2008 Season Outlook Everything went according to plan last year, until the end. Opening losses to ranked teams Arkansas and Florida didn't faze the Trojans, and they turned around and dominated Oklahoma State. Five easy victories in a row over outmatched Sun Belt foes followed. Troy paused to nearly upset Georgia in Athens, finally falling 44-34, before picking up two more wins. They stood at 8-3, with a Sun Belt crown and bowl game for the taking...then were upset, at home, by Florida Atlantic. Not only did they not win the SBC, but outrageously there was no slot in a bowl game for them, even in this age of 6-6 playing 6-6.

This year presents even more challenge than the last one in non-conference play. Except for the gimme against poor I-AA Alcorn, road games against last year's national champ contenders LSU and Ohio State are brutal, and Oklahoma State will probably get their revenge at home. But the showdown comes right away at FAU, and I think Troy should be a slight favorite. After that the meat of the Sun Belt is fodder for this team. The cumulative odds call for one or two more losses, though other than FAU it would be a fair-sized upset. This year ultimately looks a lot like last season; beat FAU, finish 9-3 and go to a bowl; lose to FAU, finish 8-4, and...well there are two more bowls than last season, so it might work out either way.

47. Boston College Eagles

2007 Results:    Record: 11-3    Bowl: beat Mich. St. 24-21 (Champs Sports) Poll finish: #10 AP #11 USA 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #28    Success: #16    Combined: #26
B.C. falls pretty hard, losing Matt Ryan and many on D.
Offense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #34   Adj. Rush Yards: #101    Adj. Pass Yards: #6
He was maybe a bit overrated: the offense was heavily biased toward passing, his QB rating was middling, and he threw 19 interceptions. But the NFL disagreed with that assessment, and 4,500 yards and 31 TDs doesn't begin to tell the story of how much of a team leader Matt Ryan was. His performance in the clutch (see 1st Virginia Tech game) was often astounding, and without him the team wouldn't have been the same. Which brings us to this season, when the Eagles are without him, and are not the same. The experience at QB is so limited that the return of three 500+ yard receivers will be diminished. The running game even loses all its top rushers, including near-1,000-yarder Andre Callender. A bright(er) spot is the offensive line, which has three starters back. And kick return specialist Jeff Smith, who had quit football due to concussions, has returned to compete at running back.
Defense (4 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #34    Adj. Rush Def: #6    Adj. Pass Def: #115
Great when it comes to the run and dismal as concerns the pass, the defense is the opposite of the offense. The rushing D has a chance to retain much of its luster with starters Ron Brace and Alex Albright (8.5 sacks) returning and much experience back from last year and '06. Only Mark Herzlich returns at linebacker from starting in '07, but again, there is much experience returning including Brian Toal who started in '05 and '06. But the passing defense won't get any better and will probably get worse; for all the yards the Eagles yielded they did intercept a lot of passes, but with leading tackler Jamie Silva, who had 8 picks, gone along with two other starters, that leaves Paul Anderson as the core of the secondary. Though deep in reserves, the defense loses a lot of key people, and the worst area is hit the hardest.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Last year's punter Johnny Ayers had a decent average (40.8) but a great net (36.9); freshman Ryan Quigley, soph Billie Flutie (Doug's nephew), or kicker Steve Aponavicius will be his replacement. The latter may gain the punting job while losing his kicking job; he was just 6 of 12 beyond 30 yards and Quigley and Billy Bennett will push him for that chore. Update: Quigley is the punter, Aponavicius the kicker.
Recruiting: Jeff Jagodzinski's first year was a success on the field, and his 2nd recruiting class was a marked improvement over his first (which was of course during transition). The '07 class ranked around #50 while the '08 class was roughly 25th in the country. The top recruit, running back Josh Haden, is expected to do great things and is already moving toward starting status in camp.

Boston College 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	@	Kent State	66%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	*Georgia Tech	60%	W
9/20	Sat	vs.	Central Florida	58%	W
9/27	Sat	vs.	Rhode Island	83%	W
10/4	Sat	@	*North Carolina State	61%	W
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Virginia Tech	50%	W
10/25	Sat	@	*North Carolina	43%	L
11/1	Sat	vs.	*Clemson	38%	L
11/8	Sat	vs.	Notre Dame	61%	W
11/15	Sat	@	*Florida State	42%	L
11/22	Sat	@	*Wake Forest	42%	L
11/29	Sat	vs.	*Maryland	47%	L
Favored: 7-5   Projected: 7-5

2008 Season Outlook B.C. didn't dominate on their way to 7-0, but by that time they were in the top five. They faced Virginia Tech at home and for 58 minutes the offense did nothing. Luckily neither did Virginia Tech's, so Matt Ryan's two touchdown drives gave them the 14-10 win. Now 8-0 and ranked #2, the Eagles were vastly overrated and due for a fall, which came courtesy of Florida State, and, in the subsequent game, to Maryland. They managed to beat Clemson and Miami before losing a rematch with Virginia Tech for the ACC title. Falling from a BCS bowl to the Champs Sports Bowl, a letdown was certain, and the Eagles struggled to put away Michigan State.

This season without Matt Ryan will be very different, though it may share some similarities. Looking at the schedule, another opening string of victories is expected; and if they manage to win a very close game with Virginia Tech once again, the Eagles would be 6-0 and probably ranked fairly high! But then come the tough games, and while winning some of them isn't out of the question, it's not likely they'll make it close to ten wins. A decent showing, though, and they'll be going to a bowl game—perhaps even the same bowl game they went to last year armed with 10 victories.

48. Kansas State Wildcats

2007 Results:    Record: 5-7    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #45    Success: #65    Combined: #47
18 JUCO recruits! 20 JUCO recruits! 15...or 17...whatever the exact number, lots of JUCO recruits! Read about Kansas State this year and you'll read all about the mess of junior college players Ron Prince is bringing in for a last-ditch attempt to have a good year and save his job. Except that...he already, just recently, got a big vote-of-confidence contract renewal. I guess that means it worked.
Offense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #22    Adj. Rush Yards: #81    Adj. Pass Yards: #14
QB Josh Freeman improved a lot last year, completing 63% for over 3,000 yards and 18 TDs vs. 11 INTs. But he owed a lot to leading rusher James Johnson (1,106 yds, 12 TDs) and especially receiver Jordy Nelson (122 receptions, 1,606 yards, 11 TDs), both of whom are gone. The top returning receivers, Deon Murphy and tight end Jeron Mastrud, had about 1/2 Nelson's yards and TDs, and leading returning rusher Leon Patton may not returning at all after law trouble. The best news for Freeman is that his offensive line is 4/5 intact, so he should have more than ample protection.
Defense (5 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #74    Adj. Rush Def: #45    Adj. Pass Def: #83
The defense collapsed late in the season, and many of the experienced players are gone. Sack specialist Ian Campbell returns on the line, but that's about it. Reggie Walker and Eric Childs return at linebacker, but part-time starter (and leading returning tackler) John Houlik has a DUI charge that may affect his availability early on. Virginia transfer Olu Hall bolsters the corps. The secondary loses about half their total starts, including #1 tackler in '07 Justin McKinney. The losses on defense are substantial, but are being filled by a lot of the aforementioned JUCO transfers (see Recruiting).
Kicking Game (1 RS): Kicker Brooks Rossman (18 of 19 inside the 40, 4 of 9 outside it) returns, but punter Tim Reyer (an excellent 44.5 average) must be replaced. JUCO George Pierson is set to take over.
Recruiting: JUCO is the buzzword of the moment for K-State. The Wildcats have a long tradition of junior college transfers, as the school is not averse to them like some colleges and the state of Kansas has some of the most prominent junior college football programs (e.g. Coffeyville, Butler, Garden City, Fort Scott). This year Ron Prince went JUCO-razy, recruiting 20 in all, at least 15 of whom are in camp. Several have a chance to start, the most likely being: Wade Weibert, offensive line; George Pierson, punter; Jack Hayes and Daniel Calvin, defensive line; Grant Valentine and Ulla Pomele, linebackers; Aubrey Quarles and Attrail Snipes, wide receivers; and Daniel Thomas, running back. Among other recruits, good old-fashioned freshman Logan Dold and walk-on Keithen Valentine are also in the mix for the running back start. Prince takes 'em where he can get 'em: in addition to Valentine, seven other walk-ons were awarded scholarships.

Kansas State 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	North Texas	83%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	Montana State	80%	W
9/17	Wed	@	Louisville	54%	W
9/27	Sat	vs.	Louisiana-Lafayette	77%	W
10/4	Sat	vs.	*Texas Tech	32%	L
10/11	Sat	@	*Texas A&M	46%	L
10/18	Sat	@	*Colorado	43%	L
10/25	Sat	vs.	*Oklahoma	31%	L
11/1	Sat	@	*Kansas	27%	L
11/8	Sat	@	*Missouri	26%	L
11/15	Sat	vs.	*Nebraska	54%	W
11/22	Sat	vs.	*Iowa State	69%	W
Favored: 6-6  Projected: 6-6

2008 Season Outlook After five games last season, things were going pretty well.  A closer-than-expected loss to Auburn and three wins, the last one a road pounding of Texas, put them on the map. They lost to rival Kansas in a game that was bigger than that game has been in a long time, but crushed Oklahoma-killer Colorado the next time out. The 41-39 loss to Oklahoma State was the first loss of concern, as the Cowboys had been crushed by Troy, and it was the first time the defense failed.  The Wildcats beat Baylor and were 5-3 when it started to fall apart; the loss to Iowa State was the low point, but giving up 73 to Nebraska hurt the most. Two more losses followed, the defense yielding 49 and 45 to Missouri and Fresno State.

This year's schedule is kinder in many ways. Prince changed the Fresno State game to one against Montana State, money well spent I'd say. Louisville is down lately, and there are seven home games and two Sun Belt teams. Not much can be done about the Big Twelve this year, and they face four of the top five. Overall six wins look likely, though two are close with only one close loss, so a repeat of 5-7 is pretty likely, too. But the JUCOs are the big question. How good will they be? Normally when adding points for recruiting, I count the last two classes equally, since most freshmen redshirt and play the following year, though some of the better frosh, as well as JUCOs, contribute immediately. When a class is so JUCO-heavy, it can have a huge immediate impact. So if these players come along quickly and fill in all the gaps, the Wildcats could have an 8-4 season. I don't think any amount of JUCOs would make me favor them over Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Kansas, or Missouri this year, however.

49. Texas A&M Aggies

2007 Results:    Record: 7-6    Bowl: Lost to Penn State 24-17 (Alamo Bowl)    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #39    Success: #43    Combined: #39
The Aggies don't return enough starters on the offensive line or defense to compete in the tough Big 12 under first year coach Mike Sherman, but should do okay out of conference.
Offense (5 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #46   Adj. Rush Yards: #12    Adj. Pass Yards: #88
The Aggies return a lot in the "skill positions," but the O-line (which takes no skill?) is porous. QB Stephen McGee led the team in rushing going over 1,000 (gross) yards and 5 TDs, while passing for 2,300-some and 12 scores. Fullback Jorvorksie Lane (16TDs) and tailback Mike Goodson totalled 1,500 yards combined. All are back, though Goodson is the team's leading returning receiver as well, with only Pierre Brown back among the starting receivers and tight ends. And together Travis Schneider and Michael Schumard add up to one returning starter on the line, where three full-time, 3+ year starters are lost along with two more part-timers. Now we'll find out how well those "skill positions" do with a rebuilt offensive line, and running a new offense, to boot.
Defense (5 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #35    Adj. Rush Def: #53    Adj. Pass Def: #40
The front seven isn't looking too great these days. Only one starter returns among all the defensive line and linebacking positions, Cyril Oziozor at defensive end. Gone are linebackers Mark Dodge and Misi Tupe, the team's leading tacklers. There is some experience to fill the holes, as 19 2nd and 3rd-string reserves return on defense, and some good recruits can help too. The secondary is stocked, returning five players who started half-time or more, and adding full-time starter Jordan Pugh (the fifth from the 3-3-5 they ran last year) to make up for the loss of Marquis Carpenter. The team's top four returning tacklers reside in the secondary, and it got so crowded that backup safety Kenny Brown and corner Chevar Bryson moved to wide receiver where there's less competition. The pass defense will likely improve further while the rush defense becomes much more questionable.
Kicking Game (1 RS): As if the Aggies weren't already low on returning starters, kicker Matt Szymanski transferred to SMU this summer. He missed only one out of 47 PATS and kicks inside the 30, but was just 8 of 18 outside that range. Punter Justin Brantly returns, though; he averaged 44.2 and netted 39.2, both fantastic numbers.
Recruiting: You can't judge a coach's recruiting by his first year, but the 2008 class was great, easily one of the top 25 in the country, and notably better than '07, which wasn't too bad itself. Wide receiver Jeffrey Fuller may start, and others should contribute on defense such as JUCO Matt Moss.

Texas A&M 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Arkansas State	71%	W
9/6	Sat	@	New Mexico	56%	W
9/20	Sat	vs.	Miami (Florida)	63%	W
9/27	Sat	vs.	Army	84%	W
10/4	Sat	@	*Oklahoma State	43%	L
10/11	Sat	vs.	*Kansas State	54%	W
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Texas Tech	32%	L
10/25	Sat	@	*Iowa State	62%	W
11/1	Sat	vs.	*Colorado	51%	W
11/8	Sat	vs.	*Oklahoma	31%	L
11/15	Sat	@	*Baylor	61%	W
11/28	Fri	@	*Texas	34%	L
Favored: 8-4  Projected: 7-5

2008 Season Outlook The Aggies couldn't get over the hump last year, which is not surprising considering the distractions concerning coach Dennis Franchione. After starting 3-0, they were trashed by Miami 34-17 (the score was much closer than the game). At 5-1, they visited Texas Tech and emerged a 35-7 loser. They dumped Nebraksa to go 6-2, but lost three straight to the Big Twelve's best teams. A&M finally got a big win, beating Texas, but lost to Penn State 24-17 in the Alamo Bowl.

Though they won't beat Oklahoma once again, and Texas and Texas Tech are just as tough, they don't have to play Kansas or Missouri this year. The Colorado game is a tossup I've given them for being at home. The off-season schedule is better, too, with New Mexico replacing Fresno State (a good thing, this year) and #120 ranked army on the slate. They get Miami at home this year and I think they'll win it. All in all, eight wins is a possibility, though 7-5 is probably more realistic given the tightness of some of the wins. Not bad for a team with only ten starters back, but then, they do return the "skill" positions :)

50. Nebraska Cornhuskers

2007 Results:    Record: 5-7    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #55    Success: #64    Combined: #57
Will Bo Pelini be the savior the Husker Nation is looking for? Probably, but not this year.
Offense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #17   Adj. Rush Yards: #47    Adj. Pass Yards: #8
Gone is Sam Keller, who promised to bring many 400+ passing yard games with him from Arizona State. As it turned out, Joe Ganz had more 400 yard games in his three starts than Keller did in nine. Keller (63%, 2,422 yds, 14 TDs, 10 INT) never truly clicked at Nebraska, while Ganz (59%, 1,435 yds, 16 TDs, 7 INT) stepped in like he'd been there for years...which he had. Ganz returns for his senior year, and there will be no breaking-in period necessary. 1,000 yard rusher I-back Marlon Lucky (9 TDs) returns, so the offense already has good options left over from a pretty strong season. Leading receiver Maurice Purify (9 TDs) is gone, in fact only Nate Swift returns of the starting pass catchers, but Pelini plans to return somewhat to Nebraska's ground-game roots anyway. This requires a Nebraska-style offensive line, and this season's should be up to it. Due to injuries last season the starts were spread out over several players. Center Jacob Hickman and tackle Lyndon Murtha are back, while Matt Slauson and Mike Huff rotated at guard, and both started full-time in '06. Two other linemen started a handful of games on the Husker line.
Defense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #93    Adj. Rush Def: #105    Adj. Pass Def: #54
Pelini, a defensive coordinator by trade, has to bring back the Blackshirts. Last season's rushing defense was pathetic by any standards, let alone Nebraska's. The rushing defense starts, of course, with the front four, and all four are back along with all of their backups save tackle Kevin Dixon, whom Pelini dismissed before fall camp. They're the same players that finished 105th in the nation, but they should be one year bigger, faster, stronger, and better. The question is, what is the normal expectation of improvement in such a situation? Whatever the answer, Pelini has to make these guys go beyond that expectation; since defense is his area, next year's rush defense ranking will be a good measure of his coaching abilities. The linebacking corps is the just opposite, though—no starters return. #1 tackler Steve Octavien and the #3 and #5 tacklers must be replaced. The pass defense wasn't horrible, at least compared to the rush defense, and especially considering how poorly the line pressured the throw. Two starters, Armando Murillo and Larry Asante, return in the secondary.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Nebraska tries very few field goals recently, I've noticed. But Alex Henery was 8 for 8, all on short kicks, and 45 of 45 on extra points. He's back and so is longer-range kicker Adi Kunalic, who was 1 for 1. Maybe Pelini will get more use out of these guys than Callahan did? Punter Dan Titchener, who netted 36.3 in '07, is back for '08 too.
Recruiting: Nebraska was one of the elite recruiting schools for decades. But under Frank Solich, the classes slipped outside the top 25. Bill Callahan actually pulled things up, including a top ten class in 2005. His last class in '07 was still in the top 25. With another coaching change and last season's turmoil, the '08 class was on the cusp, and four of that group are still not on the roster as of mid-August. Pelini's NU credentials should help restore the recruiting pecking order, but winning would help, too.

Nebraska 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Western Michigan	65%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	San Jose State	74%	W
9/13	Sat	vs.	New Mexico State	80%	W
9/27	Sat	vs.	Virginia Tech	50%	L
10/4	Sat	vs.	*Missouri	33%	L
10/11	Sat	@	*Texas Tech	24%	L
10/18	Sat	@	*Iowa State	61%	W
10/25	Sat	vs.	*Baylor	67%	W
11/1	Sat	@	*Oklahoma	24%	L
11/8	Sat	vs.	*Kansas	33%	L
11/15	Sat	@	*Kansas State	46%	L
11/28	Fri	vs.	*Colorado	51%	W
Favored: 6-6  Projected: 6-6

2008 Season Outlook 2007 didn't start out too bad, but soon became a disaster. A stomping of Nevada and narrow win over Wake Forest would look more impressive later on; at the time the 52-10 opener was considered a warmup, and the Deacons weren't supposed to be good. After getting drubbed by USC 49-31, columnists declared the Trojans the best team of all time rather than noting that the Huskers might be suspect. The 41-40 escape at home vs. Ball State really got people wondering what exactly was happening to the defense.

The answer was, it was collapsing. Missouri put up 41, Oklahoma State 45, Texas A&M 36. NU had Texas down, but Jamaal Charles singlehandedly ran through the Blackshirts and took the game back. Then came the lowest moment of the year, when Kansas scored 76 points. Ganz made his debut as starter and scored 5 TDs. Bizarrely, they scored 73 next week in beating Kansas State, and people wondered where this offense had been all year with Keller. The final loss at Colorado was a shootout, which the Buffs won 65-51.

The 2008 team has roughly the same talent level as a year before. If the Huskers are going to do considerably better, then the coaching has to be the difference. It's a good year to test Bo Pelini. If the team does considerably better or worse than .500, he deserves some credit or blame. Winning the games listed, plus the close ones vs. Virginia Tech and at K-State, would be a strong showing at 8-4. 9-3 would be a great year, since they'd have to beat one of the Big 12's big four this year. Likewise, losing any of the first five games marked W while falling below last year's record would make me wonder if Pelini is the right man for the job; with eight home games, 5-7 is the worst they should do under any circumstances.

2008 Pre-season rankings: #51-55 - Washington, Oregon State, UCLA stall

SportsRatings is ranking all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August until the season begins. These rankings are meant to reflect how good the teams might be in 2008 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for each team, and two projected records are given: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and another cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty in the predictions. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. (Schedule listings adapted from James Howell's site)

This installment covers teams from #51 to #55. To see the full list, click here.

51. Washington Huskies

2007 Results:    Record: 4-9    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #43    Success: #68    Combined: #46
Easily the best team with 9 losses last year, the Huskies fell prey to a tough schedule; this year's might even be tougher.
Offense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #28    Adj. Rush Yards: #8    Adj. Pass Yards: #86
Jake Locker became what people thought Tim Tebow might be: a great running QB whose passing was suspect at best. Rushing for almost 1,000 yards last season (13 TDs), Locker completed less than 50% for just over 2,000 yards with a 14:15 TD:INT ratio. Bringing those numbers up might be difficult as the top pass catcher back is tight end Mike Gottlieb (136 yards). The running game may be even more reliant on Locker, too; lead rusher Louis Rankin (1,294 yards) is gone and backup J.R. Hasty was booted, though solid fullback Paul Homer remains, and three starters return to the offensive line. The expectation is that a batch of freshmen will restock the running back and receiver positions, and until they mature, Locker will have a lot riding on his shoulders.
Defense (5 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #64    Adj. Rush Def: #73    Adj. Pass Def: #69
The defense has issues, too. One starter returns to the front four, and though he's a good one (Daniel Te'o-Nesheim, 8.5 sacks) the rushing defense will suffer. The inside LB slot is solid between part-time starters Trenton Tuiasosopo and Donald Butler, but E.J. Savannah is both injured and ineligible. The secondary is in better shape with three starters. In all the Huskies return 5 of their top 7 tacklers, but Savannah was #1 and his return would have helped immensely.
Kicking Game (2 RS): The kicking game is a bright spot for the Huskies. Punter Jared Ballman had a net of 36.2 last season, and kicker Ryan Perkins hit 15 of 20 field goals.
Recruiting: Ty Willingham's recruiting was much-maligned at Notre Dame, where a top 5 class is expected every year, but for Stanford he did very well. At Washington, the last two classes have certainly been acceptable. The '06 class gave the team Jake Locker. The '07 class ranked just outside the top 30, and the '08 class is in the top 20. This year help is needed at running back and wide receiver, and a number of true freshmen may be called on: Anthony Boyles, Devin Aguilar,  Chris Polk (originally committed to USC), Jermaine Kearse, and Cody Bruns are all vying for receiving slots, and Terrance Dailey, Johri Fogerson, and David Freeman for reps at RB. For a detailed look at Ty's recruiting classes, see this excellent overview by John Berkowitz.

Washington 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	@	*Oregon	29%	L
9/6	Sat	vs.	Brigham Young	44%	L
9/13	Sat	vs.	Oklahoma	30%	L
9/27	Sat	vs.	*Stanford	57%	W
10/4	Sat	@	*Arizona	39%	L
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Oregon State	54%	W
10/25	Sat	vs.	Notre Dame	60%	W
11/1	Sat	@	*Southern California	33%	L
11/8	Sat	vs.	*Arizona State	43%	L
11/15	Sat	vs.	*UCLA	55%	W
11/22	Sat	@	*Washington State	51%	W
12/6	Sat	@	*California	41%	L
Favored: 5-7  Projected: 5-7

2008 Season Outlook It started out well, then hit a wall. Manhandling Syracuse, then defeating a Boise State team that hadn't lost in 21 months—not to mention Locker's dynamic play—created expectations of a breakthrough year. That fell flat as Washington went on a six-game losing streak—for the fourth time in four seasons. They played well at the end, beating Stanford and Cal, and playing Arizona, Oregon State, Washington State, and Hawaii all close but blew either big leads, or late leads, in almost all of those losses. These close games vs. good teams are why the Huskies ranked #43 in my Strength power rating but their Success rank was only #68. An underrated team last year, they deserved better.

And this year should be at least a bit better. Though they wont be as good (at least until the freshmen get some experience), they should win more of the close games they dropped last season. Oregon State, UCLA, and Washington State may be on the wrong side this time. And though there aren't too many other prime opportunites for achieving bowl eligibility, that this year there should be no six-game losing streak.

52. Oregon State Beavers

2007 Results:    Record: 9-4    Bowl: Beat Maryland 21-14 (Emerald Bowl)  Poll finish: #25 AP  #26 USA 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #22   Success: #23    Combined: #21
Due to huge losses on defense, Oregon State takes one of the biggest falls in my pre-season ratings.
Offense (6.5 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #41    Adj. Rush Yards: #13    Adj. Pass Yards: #98
Oregon State was a running team last year; lead rusher Yvenson Bernard gained almost as many yards (1,214) as starting QB Sean Canfield (1,661) and had more TDs (13) than Canfield and #2 QB Lyle Moevao combined (11). The two QBs also had 21 interceptions. Both mediocre QBs are back to battle for starter rights, and Bernard is gone, which is the main problem on the offense. The Beavers' 2nd leading rusher (594 yards on 50 carries, 11.7 ave!) was receiver James Rodgers, utilizing his speed on special plays and scoring three times. A number of experienced receivers return, but the most heralded is Sammie Stroughter, coming back from an injury last season. Three starters are back on the line; oft-injured Jeremy Perry's ability to stay healthy has been questioned, but he vowed to play the entire season [update: he's already going to miss the first game, and his overall status is questionable.] Another part-time starter, Tavita Thompson, is due back in November.
Defense (3 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #14    Adj. Rush Def: #1    Adj. Pass Def: #39
The Beavers were a clear #1 in rushing defense last season; there were six games in which their opponent had more rushing attempts than rushing yards (Maryland was 25 rsh 19 yds in the bowl game). It's fair to say that this won many games for them last season. Not a single starter returns, however, from the fron seven in the 4-3. Mike Riley rotates a lot of players in front, but this is a lot to make up for; the linebackers lost comprise three of their top four tacklers from last year. They're looking for a lot of help from JUCOs, but one slated starter, lineman Simi Kuli, is touch-and-go eligibility wise. The three returning defensive starters are all in the secondary, and despite the defensive line's losses, the two leading sack specialists (Victor Butler with 10.5, Slade Lewis with 9) are back. So while the rushing defense has nowhere to go but down, the passing defense should be much better. There is some trouble at safety, though: projected starter Bryan Payton is off the team, and leading returning tackler Al Afalava is suspended for the first game (Stanford).
Kicking Game (0 RS): Alexis Serna is gone, opening up both the kicking and punting spots. He was a fill-in starter as punter and shouldn't be hard to replace in that category. Redshirt freshman Kyle Harper was listed in the spring, but walk-on Johnny Hekker is competing. The kicking chores should go to Justin Kahut, who may share Serna's long range but unpredictable accuracy.
Recruiting: The Beavers are fairly low on the recruiting totem pole for the Pac-10, the last two classes averaging about 50th in the nation. Along with the aforementioned Kuli, top recruits this year include Jacquizz Rogers, potential starter at running back; JUCO offensive lineman John Ioane; and JUCO Stephen Paea, who will likely start at defensive tackle. Oddly, another JUCO, offensive lineman Vil Nau, lost his eligibility by enrolling too soon. Only three true freshman will be playing this season.

Oregon State 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	@	*Stanford	48%	L
9/6	Sat	@	Penn State	35%	L
9/13	Sat	vs.	Hawaii	60%	W
9/25	Thu	vs.	*Southern California	40%	L
10/2	Thu	@	Utah	36%	L
10/11	Sat	vs.	*Washington State	58%	W
10/18	Sat	@	*Washington	47%	L
10/25	Sat	vs.	*Arizona State	42%	L
11/8	Sat	@	*UCLA	46%	L
11/15	Sat	vs.	*California	48%	L
11/22	Sat	@	*Arizona	39%	L
11/29	Sat	vs.	*Oregon	34%	L
Favored: 2-10  Projected: 5-7

2008 Season Outlook 2007 started slow but built up some steam and finished strong. Beating Utah in the opener didn't look impressive at the time, but it was; and losing to Cincinnati 34-13 looked terrible, but it really wasn't; nor was the loss to Arizona State. The Beavers were 2-3 and seemed to be struggling, but they'd gotten past the tough part of their schedule. From there they won three straight, including a huge upset of Cal, and after a loss to USC, they wont three more in a row, finishing with a win over a depleted Oregon team. The Beavers finished with the bowl win over Maryland. Along the way they held 10 of their 13 opponents to 100 or fewer rushing yards, with seven under 50 yards.

Don't look for that kind of performance from the defense again. And nine wins might be a pipe dream this season. It looks like a very bad-luck year for the Beavers, with losses in several close games. The most unfortunate part is the Stanford game, a tossup that would have gone to Oregon State if not for Afalava's suspension; it also put their cumulative projection below 5.5 wins. That said, 2-10 is an absolute lowball estimate; the Beavers could reach six wins by winning tossups against Stanford, Washington, UCLA, and Cal, and the last two may be easier with Tavita Thompson returning in November. But winning all four is a long shot, and I think the Beavers are bound to have a very disappointing losing season in 2008.

53. UCLA Bruins

2007 Results:    Record: 6-7   Bowl: lost to BYU 17-16 (Las Vegas Bowl)  Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #33    Success: #36    Combined: #32
Last year's most erratic team hopes for some stability this season, but the quarterback injury problems are back already, which doesn't portend well.
Offense (3.5 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #59   Adj. Rush Yards: #26    Adj. Pass Yards: #87
The problems UCLA faced last season were related to the injuries at quarterback. Four different QBs started, mainly Ben Olson and Patrick Cowan; combined they just over 50%, 1,700 yards, 11 TDs and 8 INTs. The others added another 500 yards, 1 TD and 7 INTs. Technically both Cowan and Olson return to the team, but both were injured during the same spring practice, Cowan done for the season. Olson returned in the fall to camp and promptly reinjured himself, and will likely miss 1/2 the season. Hence the half-starter credit. The other three returnees are tight end Logan Paulsen (5th leading receiver) and linemen Micah Kia and Micah Reed and neither Micah started full-time last season and Kia starts the season with a broken hand. This leaves holes all over: the running game loses one of its two main backs and the other, Kahlil Bell, is recovering from injury; the two top receivers are gone; and the line loses two full-time starters, three part-time starters, and prospective starter Sean Sheller (knee). I don't know how the Bruins could have a more haphazard year on offense than '07, but might in '08, unless vaunted offensive coordinator Norm Chow can work some magic.
Defense (5 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #13    Adj. Rush Def: #4    Adj. Pass Def: #44
The defense's #13 ranking is misleading due to their shutout of Oregon when the Ducks were led by freshman QBs. Still, holding USC to 24 and BYU to 17 twice isn't bad. They accomplished this by shutting down the run, limiting opponents to double-digits six times. But the line has to replace two starters—Bruce Davis and Kevin Brown—who accounted for almost half of the defense's 39 sacks. Kyle Bosworth and Reggie Carter return to the linebacking corps, but the secondary is splintered, losing three starters including their two top tacklers Dennis Keyes and Chris Horton, as well as Trey Brown (5 INTs).
Kicking Game (2 RS): At least the Bruins get their kicker and punter back. Aaron Perez netted a solid 37.6 per punt, and Kai Forbath was 25 of 30, including 5 of 5 from 50+. He was 7 of 9 from inside the 30, one of those being the blocked last-second kick that would have won the Las Vegas Bowl.
Recruiting: Rick Neuheisal's first recruiting class looks like a winner, ranking near the top 10 in the nation after the '07 class fell short of the top 25. True freshmen Aundre Dean and Milton Knox will compete for time at running back, and Dean will likely start if Bell isn't 100%. On defense, Rahim Moore will start and Aaron Hester will backup the secondary, with Datone Jones playing on the line.

UCLA 2008 schedule & forecast
9/1	Mon	vs.	Tennessee	46%	L
9/13	Sat	@	Brigham Young	36%	L
9/20	Sat	vs.	*Arizona	45%	L
9/27	Sat	vs.	Fresno State	48%	L
10/4	Sat	vs.	*Washington State	57%	W
10/11	Sat	@	*Oregon	28%	L
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Stanford	56%	W
10/25	Sat	@	*California	40%	L
11/8	Sat	vs.	*Oregon State	53%	W
11/15	Sat	@	*Washington	45%	L
11/28	Fri	@	*Arizona State	35%	L
12/6	Sat	vs.	*Southern California	39%	L
Favored: 3-9  Projected: 5-7

2008 Season Outlook It was a frustrating year for UCLA, to say the least. They returned scads of starters, but when the injuries took hold, the team had no consistency from one week to the next. Examples: beating BYU one week, then losing to Utah 44-6 the next; stomping Oregon State 40-14 on the road, then scoring 34 fewer points in a loss to lowly Notre Dame, at home, followed by an upset of Cal; losing to Washington State and Arizona, then playing ASU close before shutting out Oregon. After all of this, the Bruins could have been in the Rose Bowl with an upset of USC and a few other things falling into place. But they lost, dropping them to the Las Vegas Bowl.

The immediate future doesn't look bright, either. Tennessee and BYU are strong teams this season, as is Fresno State to a lesser degree. And the Pac-10 is tough, as usual. There are only two solid wins on the schedule, and three others that look close and could make them 5-7. Reaching bowl eligibility this year would require an upset, and a winning record would take some surprises. Not that this team isn't full of surprises, so maybe they'll once again do the unexpected and compete for the Pac-10 crown?

54. Purdue Boilermakers

2007 Results:    Record: 8-5    Bowl: beat Central Michigan 51-48 (Motor City Bowl)    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #51    Success: #60    Combined: #54
Purdue wants to finally have breakthrough season in Curtis Painter and Joe Tiller's final season.
Offense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #35   Adj. Rush Yards: #86    Adj. Pass Yards: #15
Curtis Painter had Heisman-consideration-worthy stats going until too many other quarterbacks on better teams crowded him out. The end tally was 3,846 yards and 29 TDs vs. 11 interceptions. This year the yards may be harder to come by, at least initially, as only Greg Orton returns from the fleet of receivers. Although the rushing numbers were subdued in favor of the pass, Purdue has two solid backs in Kory Sheets (859 yards, 9 TDs) and Jaycen Taylor (560 yds, 4 TD), who took turns putting up often-impressive numbers. The line returns three starters, and until the new wide receivers get their footing the ground game might have to carry the Boilermakers.
Defense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #59   Adj. Rush Def: #50    Adj. Pass Def: #94
Brown, Baker, and Magee might sound like a law firm but it's the three returning starters to the Purdue front four, looking to improve their middling rushing defense. There is trouble at linebacker, though, despite the return of #2 tackler Anthony Heygood (14 tackles for loss); they lose the other two starters and many of the backups. The secondary gave up a lot of yards to some not-so-pass-happy teams, and while two starters return, they lose #1 tackler Terrell Vinson and #3 Justin Scott who had 8 interceptions between them in '07. All told, the Boilers lose Five of their top six tacklers.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Kicker Chris Summers (56/56 PATs) returns for Purdue but punter Jared Armstrong (36.6 net) is gone. Summers is expected to take over punting duties in addition to placekicking and kickoffs.
Recruiting: Recruiting didn't suffer for Tiller's last season, though it wasn't all that great before it. Purdue has been an average (for I-A; poor for the Big Ten) recruiting team the last few years, ranking around #60. The areas hit hardest—receiver and linebacker—will have no shortage of newcomers vying for playing time. For the former, JUCOs Arsenio Curry and Aaron Valentin as well as frosh Jordan Brewer are favorites; Chris Carlino and Dwayne Beckford may see time at the latter. Update: Brewer and Beckford didn't qualify. That's how recruiting goes sometimes.

Purdue 2008 schedule & forecast
9/6	Sat	vs.	Northern Colorado	97%	W
9/13	Sat	vs.	Oregon	35%	L
9/20	Sat	vs.	Central Michigan	61%	W
9/27	Sat	@	Notre Dame	52%	W
10/4	Sat	vs.	*Penn State	41%	L
10/11	Sat	@	*Ohio State	12%	L
10/18	Sat	@	*Northwestern	52%	W
10/25	Sat	vs.	*Minnesota	62%	W
11/1	Sat	vs.	*Michigan	47%	L
11/8	Sat	@	*Michigan State	43%	L
11/15	Sat	@	*Iowa	47%	L
11/22	Sat	vs.	*Indiana	56%	W
Favored: 6-6  Projected: 6-6

2008 Season Outlook Purdue pretty much beats who they're supposed to and loses to the big name teams, which means that no season is ever too much of a downer no anything to get too excited about. 2007 was no exception, as they started strong against the weaker teams, going 5-0. They even beat Notre Dame, as they often do on that team's down years. Then they lose to Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State, while beating Iowa and Northwestern. Losses to Michigan State and Indiana put them in the lower half of the Big Ten, but they still got to a bowl game, where they played a team they already beat, and beat them again, as expected, though the game got interesting when Central Michigan almost came back to win.

Once again I don't foresee Purdue beating the big three. The warmup against Northern Colorado will be a great time to get the new receiver corps ready, then it's a tough test against Oregon followed by the Chippewas once again. An upside exists, as there are only two prohibitive losses on the schedule, but I doubt they'll stray too far from .500; a close win at Notre Dame might be surrendered in return for beating Iowa on the road, for example. Could an extraordinary season happen in '08? It could if the receivers come through and Painter really has an incredible year; and just maybe in Joe Tiller's last season they'll beat Michigan for the first time since 2000.

55. Iowa Hawkeyes

2007 Results:    Record: 6-6    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #67    Success: #71    Combined: #69
No bowl game plus losing to Iowa State equals disappointed Hawkeye fans. Will '08 be any different?
Offense (8 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #112   Adj. Rush Yards: #88    Adj. Pass Yards: #107
Who is to blame for Iowa's pathetic 2007 offense, the worst of any BCS conference team? Many point to QB Jake Christiansen, who had a mediocre year at best, completing just 54% (rounded up) for 2,269 yards. His TD/INT ratio wasn't bad though, 17 to 6, and Iowa's receivers weren't the greatest, with the best kicked off the team or injured and the rest dropping passes. Then there was the depleted offensive line, which couldn't protect the quarterback, or even clear the way for solid backs Albert Young and Damian Sims, who still managed 1,500 yards combined in their senior seasons. This year the O-line is stacked with experience, with three full-time starters back and four half-time, losing only Dace Richardson (injured) in the entire 2-deep. Only one top receiver (James Cleveland) was kicked off the team this off-season, so two of the top three return, plus Andy Brodell and tight end Tony Moeaki return from injury. So we should be better able to judge Christiansen this season, as the passing game ought to substantially improve. The problem is the running game: no backs who took a handoff in '07 return, leaving backup QB Ricky Stanzi the leading returning rusher with 13 yards on 1 carry. The Hawks have a number of stopgap solutions and should be able to find someone to run behind the experienced O-line.
Defense (5 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #16    Adj. Rush Def: #28    Adj. Pass Def: #64
The defense saved the Hawks from a truly bad season in '07, and they return some of the best players while losing a few as well. The D-line is anchored by two tackles, all-american candidate Mitch King and fellow three-year starter Matt Kroul, but they lose two full-time starters (Kenny Iwabema and Bryan Mattison) at end. The linebackers were Iowa's top tacklers in '07 and they lose #1 Mike Humpal and #3 Mike Klinkenborg (who would have been #1 if healthy). The secondary was last year's weak spot; the Hawks could shut down the run but were always vulnerable to the pass. Again, like the front four, two solid starters return at one position (safety) but both corners are gone. In all a fair number of losses, but Iowa has depth on both offense and defense this year, with the bulk of the 2nd and 3rd string returning to fill in the gaps.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Kicker Daniel Murray took over for Austin Signor after the first few games last year; Murray returns while Signor recently transferred. Punter Ryan Donohue (36.0 net) is back as well.
Recruiting: Kirk Ferentz had a solid (top 35) recruiting class in 2007, and many of them showed up on the field that year as Iowa played 11 true freshmen. Still, for a team that wants (and expects) to be a top 25 program, the occasional near-top 25 class isn't going to cut it, and indeed 2008 was far lower, just barely in the top 50, with '09 recruiting starting very slow. But JUCO transfer Nate Guillory might play a big role this season, as the Hawks need running backs bad. They also got Jeff Brinson, a freshman RB from Florida. Iowa's storied off-season woes included an incident with defensive line recruit Riley Reiff; no word yet on his exact status with the team. Offensive line recruit James Ferentz has stayed out of trouble, but I hear the coach has kept a pretty close eye on him.

Iowa 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Maine	79%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	Florida International	78%	W
9/13	Sat	vs.	Iowa State	67%	W
9/20	Sat	@	Pittsburgh	37%	L
9/27	Sat	vs.	*Northwestern	59%	W
10/4	Sat	@	*Michigan State	42%	L
10/11	Sat	@	*Indiana	50%	L
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Wisconsin	46%	L
11/1	Sat	@	*Illinois	43%	L
11/8	Sat	vs.	*Penn State	41%	L
11/15	Sat	vs.	*Purdue	53%	W
11/22	Sat	@	*Minnesota	56%	W
Favored: 6-6   Projected: 7-5

2008 Season Outlook The Hawks' defense is what kept them from a losing record. When the offense couldn't score, which was often, the defense picked up the slack. Iowa scored just 16 against woeful Northern Illinois, but the defense held them to 3, then led a shutout of Syracuse. The D held Iowa State to 15 (5 field goals) and Wisconsin to 17 but the O could not deliver. Both sides lapsed in losses to Indiana and Penn State, but then the defense again rose to the occasion, holding Illinois to 6 points (helped by Ron Zook's odd penalty refusals and a called-back Illini TD) so 10 points was enough for an upset victory. After losing to Purdue 31-6 they put together a three-game streak (offense scoring just enough to win) and seemed headed for a bowl before the most disappointing game of the season, a home loss to Western Michigan, spoiled their plans.

This year the offense should be more reliable, and the defense should still get the job done. The early schedule is much kinder this year, if that's possible. It's hard to top Northern Illinois and Syracuse as cushion games, but they did, with I-AA Maine and Florida International, while rival (and recent nemesis) Iowa State is a home game this season. The contest at Pitt is the only upgrade, as the Big Ten schedule again has no Michigan or Ohio State. But after a win over Northwestern, the Hawks face a rough five-game stretch, where they'll need to win one—probably Indiana or Wisconsin—and then not drop either of the last two to have a true winning record. It might be very close; the cumulative projection has them on the cusp of 6 vs. 7 wins. Assuming the O-line and receivers improve, it will be upon Christiansen's shoulders to upgrade his game if the Hawks are to achieve eight or more victories and convince fans things are going back in the right direction.

College Football Pre-season 120: #56-60 - Could Ball State go 12-0?

SportsRatings is ranking all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August until the season begins. These rankings are meant to reflect how good the teams might be in 2008 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for each team, and two projected records are given: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and another cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty in the predictions. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. (Schedule listings adapted from James Howell's site)

This installment covers teams from #56 to #60. To see the full list, click here.

56. Tulsa Golden Hurricane

2007 Results:    Record: 10-4    Bowl: Beat Bowling Green 63-7 (GMAC)    Poll finish: #36 AP  #35 USA
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #60    Success: #46    Combined: #60
Tulsa's high-powered offense reloads, but without its key gunslinger.
Offense (8 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #64   Adj. Rush Yards: #100    Adj. Pass Yards: #23
Let's look at who is back. First, four full-time starters on the offensive line. Next, #1 running back Tarrion Adams (1,225 yards, 8 TDs) and starting fullback Charles Clay, who had mild rushing numbers but over 1,000 receiving yards and 7 TD catches. And finally the best of the receiving corps, including 1,000 yard-club members Brennan Marion (31.9 yards per catch; 11 TDs) and Trae Johnson (13 TDs as a true freshman). But that of course leaves out the man that made it all happen, quarterback Paul Smith. Smith's '07 stats: 327 of 524 (60%) for 5,065 yards, 47 TDs, 19 INT. Replacing him will David Johnson: 4 of 8 (50%) for 56 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs last year.
Defense (5 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #90    Adj. Rush Def: #63    Adj. Pass Def: #74
The defense spent a lot of time on the field due to the hurry-up offense, and it showed. The adjusted numbers (accounting for Tulsa's opponents) aren't nearly as bad as the raw figures, but the defense is a concern, and even moreso this year as only five starters return in Tulsa's 3-3-5 defense. Two starters are back on the front three, but one of them, George Clinkscale, moves to linebacker where all three starters—Chris Chamberlain, Nelson Coleman, and Alain Karatepeyan, the team's three leading tacklers in '07—are gone. At the Bandit position (LB/CB in the nickel) starter Steve Craver (4th leading tackler) is gone but again, a starter (Roy Roberts) is moved in from elsewhere (cornerback) to cover. This leaves the rest of the secondary with two returning starters. The Hurricane lose their top four tacklers, but retain the next four. Lots of shifting around, but most of the 2nd string is back to fill the holes.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Kicker Jarod Tracy got a lot of practice at PATs, hitting 73 of 76 and just 7 of 12 field goals. Punter Michael Such was a yard shy of having a decent 40 yard average. Both return.
Recruiting: Tulsa's recruiting—which in Todd Graham's 2 years hasn't been that great even by CUSA standards—is put to the test this year, as depth on defense is a major concern. They could use a good quarterback, too, and JUCO recruit Jacob Bower will provide either support and/or competition for presumed starter Johnson. As for the D, wide receiver DeAundre Brown may contribute at corner along with John Flanders, with Kaipo Sarkissian and Brian Moore helping at linebacker.

Tulsa 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	@	*UAB	69%	W
9/6	Sat	@	North Texas	74%	W
9/20	Sat	vs.	New Mexico	60%	W
9/27	Sat	vs.	Central Arkansas	75%	W
10/4	Sat	vs.	*Rice	72%	W
10/11	Sat	@	*SMU	66%	W
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Texas-El Paso	69%	W
10/26	Sun	vs.	*Central Florida	55%	W
11/1	Sat	@	Arkansas	42%	L
11/15	Sat	@	*Houston	56%	W
11/22	Sat	vs.	*Tulane	71%	W
11/29	Sat	@	*Marshall	60%	W
Favored: 11-1  Projected: 8-4

2008 Season Outlook Tulsa lost last year only to Big 12 power Oklahoma (62-21), at UTEP by 1 point, and twice to Central Florida (44-23 and 45-24). They beat BYU in a shootout, 55-47, outlasted UAB and Marshall (38-30, 38-31), beat SMU 29-23 in a game they should have lost. The defense played stellar football only twice; once in beating Houston 56-7, and against Bowling Green in the GMAC bowl, a 63-7 victory.

Despite the loss of Smith and concerns over the non-tenacious D, Tulsa is my highest rated CUSA team, and the schedule is pretty easy. Adding Central Arkansas was a smart move, but that other Arkansas team gives the Hurricane their only loss, going strictly by the favorites. Not many of the games are projected to be close—maybe just UCF and Houston—so an 11-1 run may be realistic. But given the uncertainty at QB, I'd be cautious and say that repeating 9-3 or maybe going 10-2 is more likely. They'll be the favorite in the CUSA championship game this time around. An interesting possibility is a rematch with UCF for the title, during which we would find out once and for all which Smith—a 2,500 yard rusher or a 5,000 yard passer—was more important to their team's success.

57. Ball State Cardinals

2007 Results:    Record: 7-6    Bowl: Lost to Rutgers 52-30 (International Bowl)    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #69   Success: #77    Combined: #70
The best team in the MAC, the most-improved conference. Ball State is good enough, and their schedule favorable enough, for them to have a breakthrough year.
Offense (9 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #63    Adj. Rush Yards: #90    Adj. Pass Yards: #28
Nine returning starters may be an unfairly strict analysis, as starting experience returns at every position. They lose the equivalent of one starter on the offensive line, and another one between the receivers and running back corps—some of whom were defensive players who switched over to fill in the holes. Regardless, the important returnee is quarterback Nate Davis (3,667 yards, 30 TDs, just 6 interceptions). Almost all of his targets are back, including Dante Love (1,398 yards, 10 TDs) and tight end Darius Hill (11 TDs). The running game suffered not just by comparison, it literally suffered, as the Cardinals worked their way through five different backs and the numbers declined as the season progressed. The health problems are gone, for now at least, and production should increase. The offensive line features three full-time returning starters (center Dan Gerberry, tackle Robert Brewster, and guard Kyle Cornwell) and four seniors. With a top 25 level passing attack, a great offensive line returning, and a running game that will certainly improve greatly, Ball State will once again have an offense to be reckoned with in 2008.
Defense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #75    Adj. Rush Def: #88    Adj. Pass Def: #91
The defense needed help more than the offense, but things should be better in '08. Half of the defensive line is back; at end full-time starter Brandon Crawford (8 sacks) returns but not Cortlan Booker (3 sacks). Two starting linebackers return, including leading tackler Bryant Haines, but they must replace #2 tackler Mike Dorulla. The secondary boasts three returning starters in Trey Lewis, B.J. Hill, and Alex Knipp, who together accounted for 14 of the team's 19 interceptions. There are definitely some holes on defense, but essentially the entire 2nd string returns to fill them, so the unit should be much improved overall.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Returning punter Chris Miller averaged 45.4 yards a punt last season. The Cardinals have two kickers; Ian McGarvey (16/17 PATs, 7/8 FG) took over for Jake Hogue (33/34, 11/18) late last season.
Recruiting: Ball State does about par for the course for a MAC team in recruiting. The '07 class rated a bit higher than '08, and several redshirt freshmen from that class are scattered throughout the 2nd string with Lorren Womack pushing Haines at inside linebacker. But true freshman wide receiver Briggs Orsbon has been making noise in practice, and due to the lack of a solid backup, should anything happen to QB Davis, '08 recruit Kelly Page could be called into action.

Ball State 2008 schedule & forecast
8/28	Thu	vs.	Northeastern	75%	W
9/5	Fri	vs.	Navy	65%	W
9/13	Sat	@	*Akron	62%	W
9/20	Sat	@	Indiana	49%	L
9/27	Sat	vs.	*Kent State	69%	W
10/4	Sat	@	*Toledo	58%	W
10/11	Sat	@	Western Kentucky	62%	W
10/25	Sat	vs.	*Eastern Michigan	67%	W
11/5	Wed	vs.	*Northern Illinois	72%	W
11/11	Tue	@	*Miami (Ohio)	56%	W
11/19	Wed	@	*Central Michigan	53%	W
11/25	Tue	vs.	*Western Michigan	63%	W
Favored: 11-1  Projected: 7-5

2008 Season Outlook Everyone remembers the game last season. It didn't turn into one of the games, like Appalachian State-Michigan or Louisville-Syracuse. But when Ball State went into Lincoln and very nearly knocked off the Huskers, racking up 40 points in a game they should have won, people took notice. The rest of the year was not as dramatic but followed the same formula: the offense scored a lot and the defense yielded a lot. They finished 7-5 but were clobbered by Ray Rice's 30,000 or so yards rushing during the International Bowl.

This year looks very, very good for the Cardinals. I have them favored in every game except for one—at Indiana—and that one's essentially a tossup. The games at Miami and league favorite Central Michigan should be close, but I see Ball State as the favorite to win the MAC. The cumulative odds give Ball State just under 7.5 wins, but I think 9-3 is definitely a realistic outcome, and 12-0 is not an impossibility.

58. Central Florida

2007 Results:    Record: 10-4    Bowl: L to Mississippi State 10-3 (Liberty Bowl)    Poll finish: #37 USA 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #53    Success: #38    Combined: #52
That huge hole in the offense is Kevin "24K" Smith's 2.5K yards.
Offense (5 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #38   Adj. Rush Yards: #18    Adj. Pass Yards: #111
First things first—Kevin Smith is gone. 2,567 yards and 29 touchdowns are missing from this year's Knight offense. And good backups are hard to find these days; Philip Smith (246 yds, 4 TDs), expected to take over this year, is off the team for undisclosed reasons. Fullback Ricky Kay almost met a similar fate over law troubles but was reinstated. Now on to problem #2: quarterback. Kyle Israel was no stunner but he threw for nearly as many yards as Kevin Smith rushed for, and roughly half as many TDs. He'll be replaced by Greco, who like Israel, can run a bit too. The three top receivers return, too, so maybe the offense will be pass-based this season? It might work, if the depleted line (featuring all-conference left tackle Patrick Brown) can still protect the quarterback.
Defense (9 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #60    Adj. Rush Def: #43    Adj. Pass Def: #53
The defense has far fewer questions. Although they allowed double digits every game, only three teams scored more than 31 and two of those were Texas and South Florida. The secondary will perhaps be the tightest unit, with all four starters back from a squad that had 24 interceptions. Leading tackler Sha'reff Rasjad and and 2nd leading tackler Jason Venson are at safety, with Joe Burnett and Johnell Neal (6 INT each) at corner. All three linebackers return, but the front four is a mixed bag, with two starters missing, including Leger Douzable (7.5 sacks). It will be up to defensive end Bruce Miller (7 sacks) to put pressure on the quarterback.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Punter Blake Clingan returns after netting 36.4 per kick. A replacement for excellent kicker Michael Torres (20 of 24 FGs) must be found, and soph Jordan Dodds and redshirt frosh Salvatore Dimauro will battle it out during August.
Recruiting: UCF recruiting has come a long way in the last several years, and now the recruiting classes are not just some of the best in CUSA, but they are roughly average for all schools. Which basically means, after the bulk of the BCS schools, they're on top. Most of the immediate help is needed on offense, of course, and an '07 redshirt freshman, Joe Weatherford, will start or back up at quarterback, while true freshman Latavius Murray may provide an answer at running back.

UCF 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	South Carolina St.	71%	W
9/5	Fri	vs.	South Florida	23%	L
9/20	Sat	@	Boston College	43%	L
9/27	Sat	@	*Texas-El Paso	61%	W
10/4	Sat	vs.	*SMU	72%	W
10/11	Sat	@	Miami (Florida)	52%	W
10/26	Sun	@	*Tulsa	46%	L
11/2	Sun	vs.	*East Carolina	53%	W
11/8	Sat	vs.	*Southern Miss	60%	W
11/15	Sat	@	*Marshall	57%	W
11/22	Sat	@	*Memphis	60%	W
11/29	Sat	vs.	*UAB	75%	W
Favored: 9-3   Projected: 7-5

2008 Season Outlook The Knights became identified with Kevin Smith later in the year as he approached Barry Sanders' record, but the first national attention the program received in '07 was in the 2nd week of the season, when they nearly upset Texas. By the time South Florida pasted them 64-12, that shine had worn off and UCF was just 3-3. But as Smith kicked into high gear and the offense got going, they reeled off seven straight wins (scoring 40+ five times), beating Tulsa twice—the second time for the C-USA championship. They fell flat when they met Mississippi State's defense in the Liberty Bowl, but still finished with 10 wins.

Normally a team returning 14 starters rates somewhat better. UCF declines instead, their advances on defense offset by offensive losses and in particular, the foreseen reduction in the ground game. But the Knights will still be one of the top teams in C-USA, and may finish the regular season with the same 9-3 record they achieved in '07. USF at home and the B.C. game on the road look tough, but the game at Miami is winnable; that could be the Knights' real coming out party. From there, the conference schedule is pretty lenient, save Tulsa on the road. UCF could play Tulsa twice again this year, but without Smith they lose both this time. With some touch-and-go wins on the list (Miami, East Carolina, at Marshall) the cume projection is 7-5; that or 8-4 might be more realistic for a team that has so many questions on offense. If they find the answers, though, another C-USA title game and bowl game are in their near future.

59. East Carolina Pirates

2007 Results:    Record: 8-5    Bowl: beat Boise State 41-38 (Hawaii bowl)    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #66    Success: #61    Combined: #65
Skip Holtz hopes to build on last year's success.
Offense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #41    Adj. Rush Yards: #45    Adj. Pass Yards: #84
East Carolina has two starting QBs back, Patrick Pinkney and Rob Kass, but running back Chris Johnson ran for more yards than either of them passed for and had nearly as many TDs (17) as both of them combined. Johnson moved on to the NFL, leaving Pinkney the leading returning rusher. Moreover, expected starting RB Dominique Linsday may be out for the season with a knee injury. Pinkney will start at QB in 2008 as he adds a running threat and was more accurate than Kass. They lose some top receivers but Jamar Bryant is back with tight end Davon Drew. The offensive line is loaded; about four starters worth of experience is back between full-time, part-time, and '06 returnees (including Terence Campbell, who is coming back after open heart surgery). Look for a bigger passing game from the Pirates this season.
Defense (9 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #84    Adj. Rush Def: #49    Adj. Pass Def: #118
The pass defense was atrocious last season for the Pirates; teams that had no business racking up big yards throught the air did. The secondary should be much improved, with leading tackler Van Eskridge and cornerback Jerek Hewett back; J.J. Milbrook and Leon Best both started games at safety. The defensive line will help out as almost all starters and backups return; C.J. Wilson (7 sacks) and Zack Slate (4.5) should put some pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Two of three linebackers return as well, making this defense one of the most improved in Conference-USA.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Punter Matt Dodge and kicker Ben Hartman return. Dodge averaged over 40, but netted just 32.8. Hartman was 50 of 50 in extra points but just 8 of 15 outside the 30 in field goals, though he did make the winner against Boise State. He may miss some or all of the season due to injury, and Dodge would handle placekicking chores during that time.
Recruiting: The Pirates' recruiting has ranked in the 70s and 80s the last couple of years. Help at running back this year may come from J.R. Rogers, a redshirt-JUCO from the '07 class. At least one '08 recruit, Max Joyner, appears to be off the team from law trouble.

East Carolina 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	N	Virginia Tech	46%	L
9/6	Sat	vs.	West Virginia	30%	L
9/13	Sat	@	*Tulane	62%	W
9/20	Sat	@	North Carolina St.	56%	W
9/27	Sat	vs.	*Houston	61%	W
10/11	Sat	@	Virginia	48%	L
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Memphis	66%	W
11/2	Sun	@	*Central Florida	46%	L
11/8	Sat	vs.	*Marshall	63%	W
11/15	Sat	@	*Southern Miss	53%	W
11/22	Sat	@	*UAB	67%	W
11/29	Sat	vs.	*Texas-El Paso	67%	W
Favored: 8-4  Projected: 7-5

2008 Season Outlook When Virginia Tech struggled to beat ECU 17-7 in the 2007 season opener, many questioned Tech's quality and high ranking. By the end of the season, Tech had proven themselves, and so had the Pirates, upsetting heavily-favored Boise State in the Hawaii Bowl. 

Note the paradoxical offensive stats above: the Pirates were 41st in scoring, but 45th and 84th in yardage. The answer is turnovers—the offense didn't commit them, and the defense caused them, leading to easy scores that required fewer yards. The Pirates were 4th in turnover margin in the NCAA. If they can continue to do this, the 2008 campaign may be even more successful than 2007. After another rough opening stretch against the Hokies and Mountaineers, the Pirates are favorites in eight games, at least six of them strong favorites. The game at Virginia looks like a close one, too, as does UCF. The potential exists for a really great season, though the cumulative projection calls for a more restrained prediction, just matching last season's record. With the improvements on defense and the solid offensive line, 8-4 looks realistic. And if a really good running back is found, who knows?

60. Mississippi Rebels

2007 Results:    Record: 3-9    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #71    Success: #95    Combined: #72
The Rebels weren't such an awful team last year—they just played in a tough conference. But that excuse didn't work for coach Ed Orgeron, and Houston Nutt came in from Arkansas to take over.
Offense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #89   Adj. Rush Yards: #64    Adj. Pass Yards: #60
The offense returns seven starters, but lose a couple of key ones, running back BenJarvis Green-Ellis (1,137 yards) and quarterback Seth Adams (1,979 yards, 12 TDs)—and both of their backups have moved on as well. Adams threw 16 interceptions and completed only 55%, so the hope is that Texas transfer Jevan Snead can not only fill in but improve the passing game with the help of a clutch of returning receivers. Another newcomer may fill Green-Ellis' shoes: true freshman Enrique Davis is competing for the starting job with little-used junior Cordera Eason, who was impressive in the spring game. Making all of this possible will be the offensive line, where four starters are back plus ex-starter Darryl Harris who was granted a sixth year of eligibility.
Defense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #49    Adj. Rush Def: #86    Adj. Pass Def: #62
The much-maligned Rebel defense wasn't as awful as the scores indicated; they played five of the 11 top-scoring teams in the country. But they had trouble against both the run and the pass. The defensive line looked set with three starters back, but recently Greg Hardy (10 sacks in 4 games last season) was hurt and will probably miss 2/3 the season and Peria Jerry (knee) will be out 1/3 of it (I docked the defense one starter for the their missed time combined). On the plus side, Jerrell Powe, a five-star recruit from 2005, was finally cleared to play, and soph Kentrell Lockett was already starting ahead of Hardy, so they may fill the gaps. The linebacking corps is stocked with experienced players including leading tackler Ashlee Palmer, but backup Brandon Thomas left the team. The secondary should continue to improve with three starters returning. All in all, 12 of the top 14 tacklers on the team are back, and when Hardy and Peria return it will be 14 of 14.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Joshua Shene and Justin Sparks return as kicker and punter; neither is great nor awful.
Recruiting: Mississippi has had good recruiting under the coaches it has fired, and recently the classes have been around 30th best in the country. Houston Nutt inherits a lot of talent, even some like Powe debuting from the 2005 class. But the newcomers from '07 and '08 will help the team quite a bit this season. Some are counting on running back Davis to be the team's savior as a true freshman, and a slew of JUCOs like linebacker Patrick Trahan, and lineman Emmanuel Stephens will help on defense while tight end Gerald Harris and center Brandon Green may start on offense.

Ole Miss 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Memphis	66%	W
9/6	Sat	@	Wake Forest	38%	L
9/13	Sat	vs.	Samford	94%	W
9/20	Sat	vs.	*Vanderbilt	54%	W
9/27	Sat	@	*Florida	14%	L
10/4	Sat	vs.	*South Carolina	37%	L
10/18	Sat	@	*Alabama	32%	L
10/25	Sat	@	*Arkansas	40%	L
11/1	Sat	vs.	*Auburn	37%	L
11/15	Sat	vs.	Louisiana-Monroe	64%	W
11/22	Sat	@	*Louisiana State	29%	L
11/28	Fri	vs.	*Mississippi State	47%	L
Favored: 4-8  Projected: 6-6

2008 Season Outlook The problem was, Mississippi didn't pull off any upsets. In the most upset-laden year in recent college football memory, the Rebels played it strictly by the book: lose to the good teams in the conference (which there were many), lose to the mediocre teams in the conference (Alabama, Vanderbilt), and lose to rival Mississippi State. Beat Memphis, Louisiana Tech, and Northwestern State. And who's bright idea was it to schedule Missouri?

Assuming no upsets, Ole Miss is in store for another long year. A bit better at 4-8, and since they play Vandy at home they won't get shut out in the SEC. But their early games are their best potential wins, and Hardy and Peria will be out during this time, which is a concert. With the two of them back at the end of the year they might beat Mississippi State at home. The cumulative odds suggest they should go 6-6, but again, that means they'd have to play above their heads for a couple of games. Can Nutt make them want it enough? Stay tuned.

Pre-season 120: #61-65 - FAU soars; back to reality for Virginia

SportsRatings is ranking all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August until the season begins. These rankings are meant to reflect how good the teams might be in 2008 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for each team, and two projected records are given: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and another cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty in the predictions. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. (Schedule listings adapted from James Howell's site)

This installment covers teams from #61 to #65. To see the full list, click here.

61. Vanderbilt Commodores

2007 Results:    Record: 5-7    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #58    Success: #67    Combined: #59
The Commodores can't quite get to the next level. Many starters leave, but returning talent in the reserves prevents a fall.
Offense (3 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #79   Adj. Rush Yards: #59    Adj. Pass Yards: #100
Though dueling starters MacKenzie Adams and Chris Nickson return at QB, that's not necessarily a great thing; they combined for 15 TDs and 11 interceptions, and just over 1,800 yards. 1/3 of those TDs went to superstar receiver Earl Bennett (75 rec., 830 yards) and he took them and went pro. Two other receivers return as starters, but that's it for the offense: they must replace the starting running back, tight end, and ALL FIVE full-time starters on the offensive line. They lose 14 years of starting experience from last season's line. This offense is in a bit of trouble.
Defense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #30    Adj. Rush Def: #35    Adj. Pass Def: #21
The defense was consistently good last season, but '08 might have weak and strong areas. The weak will be the front seven, where just two starters are back. The defensive line's best player, Steven Stone, is back, but at linebacker the team's leading tackler Jonathan Goff is gone along with #3 tackler Marcus Buggs. The secondary, on the other hand, is as solid as you can get. They resemble last year's O-line: every starter returns, and even the backups have significant starting experience, too. Already a top 25 pass defense, they may be one of the best in the nation in 2007 if the pass rush doesn't suffer too much.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Punter Brett Upson and kicker Bryant Hahnfeldt return; neither will knock your socks off but they get the job done. Upson is especially good at sticking the other team inside the 20, while Hahnfeldt is reliable only inside the 30.
Recruiting: As one of the lower members of the SEC totem pole, Vandy doesn't get the great recruits. The '07 and '08 classes rank roughly 80th. Years like this one are a good test though, since the Commodores' needs are well-defined and plentiful. James Williams and Kyle Fischer from '07 are listed as backups on the O-line, while Udom Umoh and Jamie Graham may compete for time at wide receiver. True freshman John Cole may have the best chance at that spot after impressing during camp. On defense, '07 redshirts tackle T.J. Greenstone and linebacker Chris Marve help out the front seven, while DeAndre Jones has the best chance of contributing this year from the '08 class.

Vanderbilt 2008 schedule & forecast
8/28	Thu	@	Miami (Ohio)	54%	W
9/4	Thu	vs.	*South Carolina	36%	L
9/13	Sat	vs.	Rice	70%	W
9/20	Sat	@	*Mississippi	44%	L
10/4	Sat	vs.	*Auburn	36%	L
10/11	Sat	@	*Mississippi State	40%	L
10/18	Sat	@	*Georgia	22%	L
10/25	Sat	vs.	Duke	58%	W
11/8	Sat	vs.	*Florida	21%	L
11/15	Sat	@	*Kentucky	36%	L
11/22	Sat	vs.	*Tennessee	39%	L
11/29	Sat	@	Wake Forest	37%	L
Favored: 3-9  Projected: 5-7

2008 Season Outlook Scheduling can make or break dreams. In Vandy's case, starting the season 5-3 created lofty expectations for making it to their first bowl game in decades. But the reality of their last four games—against Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Wake Forest—crushed that notion, even though they came close to winning a couple of those games.

The 2008 schedule looks pretty straightforward. Expected wins over Miami Ohio, Rice, and Duke; everything else is a longshot, except maybe Mississippi. But the odds favor an upset or two here, so matching last season's tally isn't too unlikely. Note that their last four foes are the in the same order as in 2007; they may face the same problem as last season: if they beat the Mississippi teams and start 5-3, can they get another upset and reach a bowl game, or will it be another year where they finish just short?

62. Stanford Cardinal

2007 Results:    Record: 4-8   Bowl: n/a  Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #70    Success: #55    Combined: #68
They pulled off one of the biggest upsets ever last season. Jim Harbaugh has the program headed in the right direction, but a true breakthrough may be a few years off.
Offense (6.5 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #78   Adj. Rush Yards: #65    Adj. Pass Yards: #63
The Cardinal offense is a hodgepodge of uncertainty and injury, but when things get figured out and players get healthy it won't be that bad. Tavita Pritchard (5 TD, 9 INT) returns after sharing QB duties with T.C. Ostrander (7 TD, 3 INT) last season, and had to win the job in camp from soph Alex Loukas and Michigan transfer Jason Forcier. One of the three top receivers returns, while at tight end Jim Dray is recovering from a knee injury and Ben Ladner was kicked off the team. At running back there were four in the mix last season; Anthony Kimble will start with Toby Gerhardt and Jeremy Stewart getting time while Tyrone McGraw left the program. Fullback Owen Marecic is back as well. And as if your scorecard wasn't confusing enough, 2 1/2 starters return on the offensive line. The 1/2 is for the left tackle position, where part-time starter Ben Muth returns. Allen Smith started at the spot in '06 and was the starter last season before injury. Still hurt, there was talk of redshirting him, but now he's rehabbing and is expected back at "some time during the season." Also leaving the program were receiver/returner Chris Hobbs, and TE/QB/FB/left fielder Kellen Kiilsgaard.
Defense (9 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #55    Adj. Rush Def: #51    Adj. Pass Def: #103
The defense is a lot more straightforward: each section of the 4-3 returns three starters in a 4-3. The front four features Pannel Egboh (6 sacks) and Ekom Udofia is healthy now. The linebackers, who were exceptional at harassing the quarterback, all return: Clinton Snyder had 8 sacks, Pat Maynor 6, and Chike Amajoyi 4. With all this sacking going on it's surprising that Stanfords passing D was so bad, but the secondary had few interceptions. Leading tackler Bo McNally returns at free safety along with strong safety Austin Yancy, and at corner two half-time starters are back. In all, 11 of the top 12 tacklers return on D.
Kicking Game (0 RS): A couple of freshmen may take over at kicker and punter. David Green (redshirt freshman) will replace the erratic Derek Belch, who was 15-27 on FGs. Green might also take over at punter, otherwise true freshman Daniel Zychlinski or last year's backup Alex Loukas will replace Jay Ottovegio.
Recruiting: Harbough is in his second season, and seems to be doing well with the unique challenges of recruiting at Stanford. The team has had many winning seasons in the past, but keeping the program stocked with talent is the difficult part. Both of the last two classes ranked roughly 50th in the country.

Stanford 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	*Oregon State	51%	W
9/6	Sat	@	*Arizona State	31%	L
9/13	Sat	@	Texas Christian	41%	L
9/20	Sat	vs.	San Jose State	70%	W
9/27	Sat	@	*Washington	43%	L
10/4	Sat	@	Notre Dame	49%	L
10/11	Sat	vs.	*Arizona	42%	L
10/18	Sat	@	*UCLA	43%	L
11/1	Sat	vs.	*Washington State	54%	W
11/8	Sat	@	*Oregon	24%	L
11/15	Sat	vs.	*Southern California	37%	L
11/22	Sat	@	*California	38%	L
Favored: 3-9  Projected: 5-7

2008 Season Outlook Last year started out 1-3, and somehow the Cardinal had acquired a reputation as one of the worst in college football (a 1-11 '06 didn't help). So when they upset USC in Pasedena, the focus was on the Trojans, and John David Booty's broken finger. No one stopped to realize that Stanford might be getting a lot better.

They won only two more games, but it was a vast improvement over the previous season, and ultimately they finished the year an average team, by national standards. For a BCS conference team, they still had a ways to go.

Even though they're an improved team once again, their schedule is just too tough. As in 2007, if they get more than a few wins it will be from upsets. It happened last year, and they aren't ruled out of winning most of these games. The home opener vs. Oregon State is questionable because several of the injured players may miss it, but Oregon State is missing a key starter that game, too. Washington and Notre Dame are definite possibilities for upsets. As for Arizona and UCLA, who knows how those teams will play one week to the next? I think the Cardinal will beat Washington State, but after that they'd need some really big upsets—like the ones they got last season—to avoid losing the final three games. My bet is that they match their 2007 record, beating SJSU for sure; your guess is as good as mine as to exactly where they get the other three.

63. Washington State Cougars

2007 Results:    Record: 5-7    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #62    Success: #63    Combined: #62
A fair number of players return, but QB Alex Brink was the most important, and the Cougars will miss him.
Offense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #54    Adj. Rush Yards: #67    Adj. Pass Yards: #7
305 completions for 3,818 yards and 26 TDs. Those stats don't grow on trees, or everyone would have a quarterback like Alex Brink, who departs after a career that was productive though tempered by interceptions (15 in '07) and losses. The new starter will be either '07 backup Gary Rogers or K-State transfer Kevin Lopina. 1,100 yard receiver Brandon Gibson (9 TDs) is back but the next three best receivers aren't, and the next, Jeshua Anderson, is out for half the season with an injury; between all that and the QB change, the Cougars' top ten ranking is going to plummet. The running game should increase production, though, with the top two rushers returning and four starters back on the offensive line.
Defense (8 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #69    Adj. Rush Def: #34    Adj. Pass Def: #96
Two starters are back in the front four, but there's a bit of trouble at tackle: starter A'i Ahmu was suspended after drunkenly breaking a frat window; his backup, Andy Roof, returns after a year off but may be charged with assault. Both are practicing with the team right now. Returning end Andy Mattingly had his own run-in with the law but is also back presumably for good. All three full-time starters return at linebacker, so there is no concern in that department. And the secondary, the area that needs the most improvement, has three starters back, though they will miss leading tackler Hussein Abdullah (the only loss of WSU's top nine tacklers). His replacement at free safety, Xavier Hicks, will miss the first three games due to assault charges. All in all, the Cougars will have a much improved defense—provided the players can stay out of jail over the next several months.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Punter Reid Forrest returns after sporting a 40.5 average in '07. He injured his left ankle recently and may miss the first game. Kicker Romeen Abdollmohammadi leaves, but soph Wade Penner has an easier-to-type name as well as experience handling kickoff duties last year, and a great spring game where he hit two from 50+.
Recruiting: The Cougars' '07 class ranked almost in the top 50, while the '08 class is outside the top 80. This may be a product of the coaching change to Paul Wulff, as transitional years are often poorer. But the current class addressed their immediate need for depth on the defensive line, with JUCOs Bernard Wolfgramm, Jesse Sanchez, and Josh Laupo expected to provide help.

Washington State 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Oklahoma State	44%	L
9/6	Sat	vs.	*California	44%	L
9/13	Sat	@	Baylor	55%	W
9/20	Sat	vs.	Portland State	80%	W
9/27	Sat	vs.	*Oregon	30%	L
10/4	Sat	@	*UCLA	42%	L
10/11	Sat	@	*Oregon State	39%	L
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Southern California	36%	L
11/1	Sat	@	*Stanford	46%	L
11/8	Sat	vs.	*Arizona	42%	L
11/15	Sat	@	*Arizona State	31%	L
11/22	Sat	vs.	*Washington	49%	L
11/29	Sat	@	Hawaii	49%	L
Favored: 2-11  Projected: 6-7

2008 Season Outlook The Cougars didn't have much success in the Pac-10 last season. Starting with four losses, they beat a highly erratic UCLA and doormat Stanford, then closed with a win in the Apple cup over actual last-place Washington. They were competitive with surprise power Arizona State and erstwhile power Cal, but Oregon beat them 53-7, USC 47-17, and even Oregon State, 52-17.

Washington State plays 13 games this year, and there's a fine line between two wins and six, but the Cougars could hit either one. They start with two pretty tough customers at home, both of which could be won or lost. Their next two games should be wins, though Baylor isn't guaranteed. Then the rough stuff starts with the heart of the Pac-10 schedule. The conference was good last year and will be even better this year, so it isn't a good time to be the bottom team (or close to it). Oregon, UCLA, Oregon State, and USC look like losses; Stanford, and Arizona at home, are the best bets for Pac-10 wins (along with Cal early). They close with two complete tossup games at home vs. Washington and at Hawaii. If they can open with four wins and close with two, they'll be 6-7, and one upset later, they're bowl-bound. But realistically, I think that with the losses on offense and coaching change, not to mention the off-season troubles that might jeopardize the defense's improvement, matching last year's win total will be enough of a challenge.

64. Virginia Cavaliers

2007 Results:    Record: 9-4    Bowl: Lost to Texas Tech 31-28 (Gator)    Poll finish: #26 AP; #27 USA 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #44    Success: #34    Combined: #43
The Cavs won so many close games in 2007 that it gave a distorted view of their true strength. They also lose some key talent; the wins will come a lot harder in 2008.
Offense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #62   Adj. Rush Yards: #71    Adj. Pass Yards: #78
Cedric Peerman started the first half of the season at tailback, and Mikell Simpson the 2nd half after Peerman got hurt. The two combined for over 1,000 yards, 13 TDs, and over 5 yards per carry. Both are back this year, but not quarterback Jameel Sewell, who was the team's third leading rusher. He's academically ineligible this season. Backup Peter Lalich did a good job for a true freshman and should take over in '08, and while the actual starting wide receivers all return, the top pass catchers were tight ends Tom Santi and Jonathan Stupar, who are gone. The O-line is questionable, too, with two starters back. One is the excellent Eugene Monroe; the other is the equally huge Will Barker, who stole beer from a gay bar this summer and might be suspended for a game or two because of it.
Defense (5 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #32   Adj. Rush Def: #42    Adj. Pass Def: #72
Of all the losses on the team, the biggest is the loss of Chris Long, All-everything defensive end. He was the team's 2nd-leading tackler last season, and had 14 sacks and an interception. The defensive line loses the other two starters as well, including Jeffrey Fitzgerald (4th in tackles, 7 sacks, 2 INTs) to academics. This puts the whole defense in question, though the quality of the linebacking corps should help out somewhat. Three starters return there: 2-year starter John Copper (#1 tackler), 2-year starter Antonio Appleby, and three-year starter Clint Sintim (#3 tackler, 9 sacks). The secondary's situation isn't as dire as the D-line's, nor as solid as the LB's; two starters return. But since UVa's pass D was suspect last season, that's not great news.
Kicking Game (0 RS): The Cavs lose both punter Ryan Weigand and kicker Chris Gould. Both will be hard to replace; Weigand had a 45 yard average, and Gould kicked 16 of 20 field goals, and punted the short game, putting 19 of 26 inside the 20. Two freshmen (redshirt P Chris Hinkebein and true K Jimmy Howell) may take over, or it could be two walk-ons, senior John Thornton and UVa soccer star Yannick Reyering.
Recruiting: Al Groh had a great recruiting class in 2007, but sometimes the numbers can be misleading. First, not all of these players make it to campus, due to NCAA clearinghouse issues or other reasons. And since most freshmen redshirt, that gives them another year before they contribute, and if they leave during that time, the class ranking is overinflated. An example is J'Courtney Williams, the creme of that '07 crop, who was dismissed in the off-season for credit card theft/fraud. The '08 class was ranked much lower.

Virginia 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Southern California	36%	L
9/6	Sat	vs.	Richmond	56%	W
9/13	Sat	@	Connecticut	32%	L
9/27	Sat	@	*Duke	51%	W
10/4	Sat	vs.	*Maryland	41%	L
10/11	Sat	vs.	East Carolina	51%	W
10/18	Sat	vs.	*North Carolina	45%	L
10/25	Sat	@	*Georgia Tech	48%	L
11/1	Sat	vs.	*Miami (Florida)	57%	W
11/8	Sat	@	*Wake Forest	37%	L
11/22	Sat	vs.	*Clemson	33%	L
11/29	Sat	@	*Virginia Tech	37%	L
Favored: 4-8  Projected: 5-7

2008 Season Outlook Here's a rundown of last season's victory margins: Duke by 11; UNC by 2; Georgia Tech by 5; Pitt by 30; Middle Tennessee by 2; UConn by 1; Maryland by 1; Wake Forest by 1; Miami by 48.

If that kind of luck holds out, Virginia can reach nine wins this year as well. But under normal circumstances, even without the team being downgraded, there would be little chance of repeating what happened in 2007. The combination of normal luck and a worse team can be deadly to a lucky team's projected record. Let's look at the damage.

The Cavs can count on maybe two wins, and another four are strong possibilities. That means a lucky season will be break-even in 2008, and a bad luck season will be disastrous. I expect UVa to get four wins and put Al Groh firmly back on the hot seat. Unless last year's secret was some kind of voodoo that is replicable, of course.

65. Florida Atlantic Owls

2007 Results:    Record: 8-5    Bowl: Beat Memphis, 44-27 (New Orleans Bowl)    Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #75    Success: #62    Combined: #75
Florida Atlantic overachieved last season, but with an even better team, they're ready to have an even better year and another showdown with Troy for the Sun Belt title.
Offense (9 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #64   Adj. Rush Yards: #100    Adj. Pass Yards: #23
It's all about Rusty Smith. The Owls' QB returns from a great '07 where he threw for 3,688 yards and 32 TDs against just 9 interceptions. With all his receivers back (ok, eight of the top nine, now that tight end Jason Harmon is injured and lost for the year) and four-fifths of the starting O-line intact, this pass-weighted offense is ready to rocket in 2008. Not only that, but with the top RB and fullback returning behind the strengthened line, the rushing yards are bound to improve as well from their dismal '07 ranking.
Defense (8 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #90    Adj. Rush Def: #63    Adj. Pass Def: #74
The defense wasn't exactly great last year, let's face it. This led to a lot of shootout-style games, with both teams tagging 30+ on each other. The forecast for 2008 is better, starting with the rushing defense, as the front four all return. Leading tackler Frantz Joseph anchors the linebackers, with 1/2-time starters Andre Clark and George Allen back as well. And Corey Small and Tavious Polo—who combined for 12 interceptions—lead the secondary.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Punter Keegan Peterson and kicker Warley Leroy both return. But Peterson's net was only 31.6 last season, while Leroy is questionable from 40+.
Recruiting: Howard Schnellenberger is in his 8th year at FAU. The program is only seven years old, four of them in I-A, and in the lowly Sun Belt conference. Considering that, it's not surprising that Florida Atlantic's recruiting ranks in the bottom 20 in the country. But there are plusses: the team's profile is rising; 2008's crop was a bit better than 2007's, and far better than 2006; and the potential in South Florida has little ceiling. There were 53 freshmen on last year's team, so watch out for the Owls in 2010.

FAU 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	@	Texas	28%	L
9/6	Sat	vs.	Alabama-Birmingham	73%	W
9/13	Sat	@	Michigan State	39%	L
9/20	Sat	@	Minnesota	52%	W
9/30	Tue	@	*Middle Tennessee	57%	W
10/7	Tue	vs.	*Troy	48%	L
10/18	Sat	@	*Western Kentucky	60%	W
10/25	Sat	@	*Louisiana-Monroe	56%	W
11/8	Sat	vs.	*North Texas	78%	W
11/15	Sat	vs.	*Louisiana-Lafayette	71%	W
11/22	Sat	@	*Arkansas State	59%	W
11/29	Sat	N	*Florida International	72%	W
Favored: 9-3  Projected: 7-5

2008 Season Outlook Last season's highlights included: beating a BCS conference school (Minnesota); playing a ranked team relatively close (losing to USF, 35-23); winning at LA-Lafayette in overtime, then at Arkansas State by three; crushing FIU 55-23; and most importantly, upsetting Troy 38-32 to win the Sun Belt and earn a berth in the New Orleans Bowl, where they defeated Memphis 44-27.  

In all, a very good year. And with an even better team, they might expect to repeat that success. But that may or may not happen, since last season the ball bounced their way more often than not. And with only four true home games this season out of 12, you would think that repeating last season's success would be difficult.

And you'd be right—in a way. Even though FAU plays Troy at home, the Trojans are going to be tough enough to win the Sun Belt. But other than that, the Owls will probably match or exceed their performance last year. They won't get the win at Texas, nor likely at Michigan State. This year Minnesota again could go either way. But not many of their Sun Belt wins look particularly close; FAU and Troy are truly distancing themselves from the pack. I see a finish with six straight wins, and though 7-5 probably won't get them to a bowl if they don't win the conference, 8-4 or 9-3 certainly should.

College football 2008 Pre-season 120: #66-70 - Irish need another year

SportsRatings is ranking all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August until the season begins. These rankings are meant to reflect how good the teams might be in 2008 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for each team, and two projected records are given: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and another cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty in the predictions. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. (Schedule listings adapted from James Howell's site)

This installment covers teams from #66 to #70. To see the full list, click here.

66. Indiana Hoosiers

2007 Results:    Record: 7-6    Bowl: Lost to Tulsa 49-33 (Insight Bowl)    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #64    Success: #69    Combined: #64
The Hoosiers went to a bowl in Bill Lynch's first year; with Kellen Lewis back, can they win one his second?
Offense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #53   Adj. Rush Yards: #69    Adj. Pass Yards: #67
Kellen Lewis complete 60% of his attempts for over 3,000 yards and 28 TDs and 10 INTs in 2007, also leading the team in rushing (736 yd. net, 9 TDs). So it's no wonder there was a great sigh of relief in Bloomington when he was reinstated to the team after a four-month suspension for the ever-popular "violation of team rules."  The offense returns running back Marcus Thigpen and two starting receivers, but a huge (6' 7" to be exact) loss is James Hardy, who caught 16 of Lewis' TD passes last season. Sometimes one key receiver can make a QB look great, and I wouldn't be surprised if Lewis' numbers are down this year, especially after missing spring and the O-line a bit of a question with two starters back.
Defense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #73    Adj. Rush Def: #60    Adj. Pass Def: #88
The Hoosier front four will be the key to the defense. Last season's rushing defense was just average, but this year it should be solid with three excellent starters returning and two starting linebackers behind them. Despite tallying 19 interceptions—not to mention great pressure from defensive end Greg Middleton who led the nation with 16 sacks—the secondary was vulnerable in '07. This year safeties Nick Polk and leading tackler Austin Thomas return and they may have Florida transfer Jerimy Finch this year as well, but both corners are gone including Tracy Porter who had 6 interceptions. But almost all of the 2nd and 3rd string defense from last year is back, and the unit as a whole should be better.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Kicker Austin Starr returns, and he is one of the best in the nation, hitting 21 of 23 last season. He's almost automatic even from 45 yards out. Punter Michael Hines is gone, and redshirt freshman Chris Hagerup is taking over after beating out senior Joe Kleinsmith.
Recruiting: Indiana's recruiting is hampered by the fact that most people associate the school with basketball, making it difficult to build a consistent football team. 2nd year coach Lynch is trying to change that of course; his first real class is the '08 class, and it almost ranks in the top half in the nation. An improvement, but to compete in the Big Ten it will have to continue. Emphasizing high school recruits over JUCO transfer and lots of redshirting helps build for the future, thought the immediate impact is lessened. Several redshirt freshman are listed on 2nd string, and two true freshman wide receivers, Tandon Doss and Tyler Adetona, have impressed and may play this season.

Indiana 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Western Kentucky	67%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	Murray State	97%	W
9/20	Sat	vs.	Ball State	51%	W
9/27	Sat	vs.	*Michigan State	46%	L
10/4	Sat	@	*Minnesota	52%	W
10/11	Sat	vs.	*Iowa	51%	W
10/18	Sat	@	*Illinois	38%	L
10/25	Sat	vs.	*Northwestern	56%	W
11/1	Sat	vs.	Central Michigan	58%	W
11/8	Sat	vs.	*Wisconsin	43%	L
11/15	Sat	@	*Penn State	31%	L
11/22	Sat	@	*Purdue	43%	L
Favored: 7-5   Projected: 6-6

2008 Season Outlook The 2007 season went pretty much by the book, with the Hoosiers beating the lesser teams on their schedule and losing to the good ones. The loss to Illinois and the win at Iowa raised eyebrows at the time, but not in retrospect. There were a few disappointments near the end: the loss at Northwestern by three points, and of course the dismal bowl game which wasn't even as close as the score might suggest.

Another successful season seems to be in the works. Indiana only plays five games on the road this year and opens with four at home; the first two should be easy, the 2nd two are tough. Coming out of this 3-1 or better would put them in good shape for the next five games, all of which will be competitive but four are certainly winnable. And they'll need those wins, because the last three games are going to be rough, facing Wisconsin and then Penn State and Purdue on the road. But if the Hoosiers start 7-2, they might have some extra confidence going in; on the other hand, a three-game slide may discourage fans who mistakenly thought the strong start meant a breakthrought season was upon them. The cumulative odds suggest a 6-6 year is more likely than improving last year's regular season mark, though there is an opportunity for the latter.

67. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

2007 Results:    Record: 7-6    Bowl: L to Fresno State 40-28 (Humanitarian Bowl)    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #56    Success: #59    Combined: #56
2008 has all the markings of a rebuilding year for the Yellow Jackets, but there will be some major interest in the team as ex-Navy coach Paul Johnson brings the triple option to Atlanta.
Offense (5 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #73   Adj. Rush Yards: #28    Adj. Pass Yards: #83
The Jackets' offense won't look the same this year. Uneven starting QB Taylor Bennett transferred, and hotshot running back Tashard Choice (1,379 yards 10 TDs) is gone. Johnson's implementation of the option will begin with a lot of new players, but over the next few years that will be a good thing. Sophomore John Nesbitt will run the offense; another soph, 2nd leading rusher Jonathan Dwyer (9 TDs), is set at B-back; and since junior Jamaal Evans has left the team, the A-back starters will be between redshirt freshman Roddy Jones, last year's leading receiver Greg Smith, and receiver Andrew Smith. The equivalent of three starters return on the offensive line, but they have to learn a lot for the new system, in addition to losing weight to become more mobile.
Defense (4 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #38    Adj. Rush Def: #46    Adj. Pass Def: #81
As if a brand new offense weren't enough, GT has a new defensive coordinator as well. The line returns two great starters, tackles Vance Walker and Darryl Richard, with solid backups taking the defensive end spots. But only one starter returns at linebacker and the secondary is questionable, losing three starters with projected replacement starter Jarred Tarrant probably lost for '08 on rape charges. In all the Tech defense loses its top four tacklers.
Kicking Game (0 RS): Solid kicker Travis Bell is gone, and sophomore Scott Blair, who handled kickoffs last year, takes over. But the bigger loss is punter Durant Brooks, who had a 45 yard average and 39.2 net. Junior Mohamed Yahiaoui will attempt to fill his shoes.
Recruiting: Tech's '07 class was a great one, in the top 25 nationally. There was considerable dropoff in '08, which is understandable during a coaching change, but it will be interesting to see how Johnson does recruiting for a run-based option offense in the ACC. Of roughly ten freshmen listed on the two-deep; all but one (receiver Tylor Melton) are from the '07 class.

Georgia Tech 2008 schedule & forecast
8/28	Thu	vs.	Jacksonville State	79%	W
9/6	Sat	@	*Boston College	40%	L
9/13	Sat	@	*Virginia Tech	36%	L
9/20	Sat	vs.	Mississippi State	45%	L
10/4	Sat	vs.	*Duke	57%	W
10/11	Sat	vs.	Gardner-Webb	83%	W
10/18	Sat	@	*Clemson	24%	L
10/25	Sat	vs.	*Virginia	52%	W
11/1	Sat	vs.	*Florida State	42%	L
11/8	Sat	@	*North Carolina	37%	L
11/20	Thu	vs.	*Miami (Florida)	56%	W
11/29	Sat	@	Georgia	21%	L
Favored: 5-7  Projected: 6-6

2008 Season Outlook After starting the season with a 33-3 crushing of Notre Dame in South Bend, the rest of the year was anticlimactic as losses to Boston College, Virginia, and Maryland brought the team back down to earth. They finished a respectable but disappointing 7-5, and lost to Fresno State in their bowl game.

Fans really shouldn't expect Johnson's new offense to work wonders the first year; in fact, there's a split as to whether people think it will work at all in the ACC. But with so many key players from last year gone, it would have been a rebuilding year no matter what, so this year can be designated a learning year for the new system. Despite being a cousin of the now-popular "spread" offense, it will look nothing like anything else played in the conference, so while everyone else in the country is busy defending the pass, Georgia Tech will be the most prominent team operating a run-based option attack.

The '08 schedule is helpful, with two weak I-AA teams to soften the blow. Overall 5-7 looks probable but bowl eligibility is a possibility if they can upset either SEC team on the list. Beating Mississippi State is a lot more likely, but spoiling a perfect Georgia season at the end would be far, far more satisfying, and would make Johnson a hero no matter how the rest of the year turns out.

68. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

2007 Results:    Record: 3-9    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #80    Success: #79    Combined: #81
After last season's debacle, many are predicting a strong rebound for the Irish; hence their 5 votes in the USA-Today coaches poll. With many starters back and strong recruiting, they'll be considerably better than last season, and an easier schedule helps. But they were really, really bad last year and will only be an average team in '08.
Offense (9 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #102    Adj. Rush Yards: #102    Adj. Pass Yards: #115
The problem last year was mainly on the offensive side. The yardage figures were dismal and they were reflected in scoring as well: two shutouts and six games with two touchdowns or less. This season a lot of experience returns, however, starting with QB Jimmy Clausen. A lot has been written about how Clausen has put on 20 lbs. of muscle over the summer. I guess this is considered normal nowadays; if any player, let alone a quarterback, put on 20 pounds of muscle in one year in the 70s, it would have been astounding. He's a growing boy so we won't say anything about how he might have accomplished that. In any case, his meager numbers should increase, and backup Evan Sharpley returns as well if needed, to throw to three returning starters at wide receiver. Four starters return on the line which must improve from last year's performance for pass protection and leading the run. The top three backs return as well. In all, not a bad situation, and they should be a lot better.
Defense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #56    Adj. Rush Def: #65    Adj. Pass Def: #4
The one bright spot in all of Notre Dame's performance last year was the secondary, which finished in the top 5 in adjusted pass yardage allowed. Part of the reason, though, was that running on the Irish was pretty easy for a good team (they were 96th in raw yardarge yielded, but played a very tough schedule, including all-run-all-the-time Navy and Air Force). Pat Kuntz returns on the line but leading tackler Trevor Laws is gone, so linebacker John Ryan moves to defensive end to help. Maurice Crum anchors the linebacking corps, which loses Joe Brockington (and Ryan in the switch) but gains true freshman Steve Filer, one of the top-rated recruits at the position in the country. David Bruton and Terrail Lambert are back on the secondary but Tom Zbikowski went pro and Darren Walls will miss 2008 for personal reasons.
Kicking Game (1.5 RS): Brandon Walker did his part to insure Notre Dame had a low scoring season, hitting only 6 of 12 field goals including 1 of 7 beyond the 30. It's a little troubling that he's still listed as the starting placekicker. Can't Notre Dame recruit a freshman who could do better? Punter Geoff Price will be replaced adequately by last year's part-time punter Eric Maust, who averaged roughly the same (42 yards) as Price.
Recruiting: This area was (wrongfully) blamed for the Irish's woes last season, and is also being cast as their savior this season. Notre Dame had the de facto top class in the nation in 2008 (Alabama's was better, but several of their players won't end up playing for the Tide for various reasons). 2007 was no slouch either (top 10), and the redshirts from that class will be boosting the team, but many (including Clausen) from that class played last season. Of the 2008 class, there are probably over a dozen that could contribute if coach Charlie Weis wants to use them; he singled out running back Jonas Gray, defensive end Ethan Johnson, tight end Kyle Rudolph, and linebacker Filer as true freshman that were doing well in practice, but it remains to be seen who plays and who redshirts.

Notre Dame 2008 schedule & forecast
9/6	Sat	vs.	San Diego State	63%	W
9/13	Sat	vs.	Michigan	42%	L
9/20	Sat	@	Michigan State	37%	L
9/27	Sat	vs.	Purdue	49%	L
10/4	Sat	vs.	Stanford	50%	W
10/11	Sat	@	North Carolina	36%	L
10/25	Sat	@	Washington	41%	L
11/1	Sat	vs.	Pittsburgh	40%	L
11/8	Sat	@	Boston College	40%	L
11/15	Sat	@	Navy	54%	W
11/22	Sat	vs.	Syracuse	65%	W
11/29	Sat	@	Southern California	27%	L
Favored: 4-8  Projected: 5-7

2008 Season Outlook When looking at last season's debacle, one should keep in mind that the schedule was loaded. The Irish's first ten opponents were bowl teams. That's no excuse for going 1-9 against them, but it adds a little perspective. The losing scores themselves are what made last year such an atrocity. Losing 38-0 twice, once at home; getting beat by 30 in the home opener; and giving up 30 or more eight times. The Irish were actually lucky to beat UCLA, and to play Navy so close. They set a record for losses for a Notre Dame team and the Navy loss was the first one in 40 years. They saved themselves from further embarrassment in the last two games by not losing to Duke and Stanford, though they got a lot of help from the Cardinal in the finale.

There are some who think that Notre Dame always bounces back in a big way after a down year, and will do so again in 2008. This has been true in the past; in 2005 they improved to 9-3 from 6-6; in 2002 they went 10-3 from 5-6; and in 2000 they were 9-3 following a 5-6 season. But it doesn't always work that way; they had back-to-back poor seasons in 2003 and 2004 (5-7, 6-6) and losing seasons in '85 and '86. When the Irish come back strong, in the previous season they still have shown signs of life, which couldn't really be seen last year. In 2004 they beat Michigan and Tennessee; in 2001 they played Boston College, Tennessee, and 9-3 Stanford tight; and in '99 they lost to Michigan 26-22, not 38-0.

So while the Irish usually bounce back, this one is going to take another year. The schedule is not as hard, but isn't a pushover by any means. The main difference is the Irish won't be blown out like last year, nor shut out twice, and they will be competitive when they lose. And they'll probably beat Navy, too. I see them about 4-8, give or take the Purdue and Stanford games, and 5-7 or 6-6 with a couple of upsets, but I don't think they'll have a winning regular season, nor will they do worse than last season's tally. Yes of course, the Irish will be making a comeback; they always do. But it will come to fruition in 2009, not 2008.

69. Louisville Cardinals

2007 Results:    Record: 6-6    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #47   Success: #52    Combined: #50
A disappointing '07 and few key returnees points to an even worse '08 for the Cardinals.
Offense (3 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #19    Adj. Rush Yards: #73    Adj. Pass Yards: #5
Louisville's offense didn't fail them last year. They were still in the top 25 in scoring, adjusted for their schedule, and #5 in passing yards. But not a lot of that offense is back this year. Brian Brohm had another great year, completing 65% for 4,000+ yards and 30 TDs vs. 12 INTs. He left for the NFL, but Hunter Cantwell is an experienced and talented backup. But who will he throw to? Not Harry Douglas (1,159 yds, 7 TDs), Gary Barnidge (7 TDs), Mario Urrutia, or Patrick Carter, the top four targets from '07. Nor tight end Scott Kuhn, nor last year's leading rusher Anthony Allen (7 TD runs, 2 TD catch), 3rd leading rusher George Stripling (kicked off team), junior JuJuan Spillman (law trouble, dismissed), and maybe not Trent Guy (shot, will miss 1/2 the season). That leaves Scott Long (0 TDs) [update: Long broke a bone in his foot and may not return], running back Brock Bolen (7 TDs rushing, 1 TD catch), and Sergio Spencer (85 rec. yards) left of the team's top 12 pass catchers from last year. They will find replacements from JUCOs of course, but they won't be as good. Additionally, 3/5 of the O-line is gone, though the two that return (left tackle George Bussey and center Eric Wood) are both All-Big East players.
Defense (4 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #78    Adj. Rush Def: #69    Adj. Pass Def: #107
Here is the culprit to last year's breakthrough decline. The front four did a passable job at containing the run, though plagued with injuries. Roughly two starters worth of experience returns, led by tackle Earl Heyman. None of the three starters return at linebacker. Losses include Lamar Myles, who had well over twice as many tackles as anyone else on the team;gains include Miami transfer James Bryant. The secondary was the big problem last season. Two starters return from a unit that had only seven interception in '07. Strong safety Bobby Buchanan the only one of Louisville's top five tacklers back for 2008.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Kicker Art Carmody, perfect on 55 PATs last year, is gone, replaced by either sophomore transfer Tim Dougherty or true freshman Chris Philpott. Erratic punter Corey Goettsche is back but averaged under 40 yards per punt last season. As for the kick return squad, see notes in Offense re: Spillman and Guy.
Recruiting: Louisville's recruiting ranks around 50th in the nation. It didn't suffer much from the transition to a new coach, but doesn't seem likely to improve under Kragthorpe. Still, JUCOs tight end Rock Keys and receiver Maurice Clark could help immediately in the passing game, and on defense true freshman linebacker Dexter Heyman may join older brother Earl as a starter.

Louisville 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Kentucky	40%	L
9/6	Sat	vs.	Tennessee Tech	88%	W
9/17	Wed	vs.	Kansas State	46%	L
9/27	Sat	vs.	*Connecticut	37%	L
10/10	Fri	@	Memphis	56%	W
10/18	Sat	vs.	Middle Tennessee	62%	W
10/25	Sat	vs.	*South Florida	23%	L
11/1	Sat	@	*Syracuse	58%	W
11/8	Sat	@	*Pittsburgh	32%	L
11/14	Fri	vs.	*Cincinnati	38%	L
11/22	Sat	vs.	*West Virginia	27%	L
12/4	Thu	@	*Rutgers	33%	L
Favored: 4-8  Projected: 5-7

2008 Season Outlook The first sign that the Cardinals might not be an NCAA power last year came vs. Middle Tennessee, who scored 42 points on them. Louisville scored 58 and won. The very next week they lost to Kentucky, 40-34; still, there was a chance that UK was better than expected. The final straw, of course, was the loss to Syracuse, at home, as near-40-point favorites. After that, the team went through the motions, winning and losing mostly high-scoring games. They upset Cincinnati 28-24 to hand the Bearcats their first loss; they lost to Connecticut mainly due to a controversial punt fair catch ruling; they lost 55-17 to South Florida; and finally, beat Rutgets 41-38 to end the season 6-6, no bowl.

Eight home games is good treatment for a program in decline. Unfortunately for the Cardinals, it's not enough in '08. A 4-8 record looks pretty likely, though they should probably beat Kansas State at home, or get revenge on Kentucky in the opener. For some reason, though, winning both to match last season's record doesn't seem likely. The last four-game stretch is terrible, and will be worse since they'll be 4-4 or 5-3 after November 1st, with hopes for a bowl game about to be crushed.

70. Northwestern Wildcats

2007 Results:    Record: 6-6    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #82    Success: #76    Combined: #82
Improved on both sides of the ball, Northwestern looks to make a run at another bowl game.
Offense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #70   Adj. Rush Yards: #92    Adj. Pass Yards: #12
Somewhere along the way, Tyrell Sutton became just another running back, rather than the next big thing. After an amazing freshman year (1,474 yards, 16 TDs), Sutton's numbers declined in his 2nd year, and injuries last season reduced his output to 522 yards and 4 TDs. Now healthy for his senior year, he wants to recapture his earlier form and put Northwestern's rushing totals in the top 25, instead of the bottom 30. In the meantime, the Wildcats have become a pass-dependent team, starting four receivers (w/three returning starters) and featuring C.J. Bacher, who had 3,656 yards and 19 TDs to go with 19 INTs. Can they excel at both this year? The offensive line returns just two starters, and is the only weak link in Northwestern's plan for offensive domination.
Defense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #98    Adj. Rush Def: #67    Adj. Pass Def: #106
When Northwestern is bad, they don't score much and give up a lot of points. When they're good, they score a lot and, often, still give up a lot of points. But it never helps to have some margin for error. The Wildcat front four might provide that this year; all four starters (John Gill, Adam Hahn, Kevin Mimms, and Corey Wootton) return to shut down the run and pressure opposing quarterbacks, though Gill is suspended for the opener against Syracuse. Adam Kadela, leading tackler from last season, is gone from the linebacking corps, but Prince Kwateng and others with starting experience return. Finally, the area that needs the most improvement—the secondary—is a mixed bag. Two solid starters (tacklers #2 and #4) leave, but two (tacklers #3 and #5) return, along with former starter Brendan Smith. Overall, the front four will be so good they can cover for the deficiencies of the rest of the unit, and the yardage yield numbers should improve.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Punter Stefan Demos averaged just 40 yards a kick, but had a great 36.8 net last year. He returns along with kicker Amado Villareal, who has some accuracy issues but a good leg.
Recruiting: Northwestern faces some academic issues when it recruits, but still does a pretty good job considering its perception as the bottom dweller in the Big Ten. The last few classes have been around the average for the nation overall; when the Wildcats randomly have a critical mass of talent, they have a good team and go to a bowl game. Otherwise, a losing season—Sutton and Bacher are seniors but haven't gone to a bowl game since 2005. As for the recent classes new contributions toward this season, redshirt freshman Ben Burkett may start on the offensive line, and the defensive secondary may feature four redshirt freshman on the 2nd string.

Northwestern 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Syracuse	64%	W
9/6	Sat	@	Duke	48%	L
9/13	Sat	vs.	Southern Illinois	54%	W
9/20	Sat	vs.	Ohio	64%	W
9/27	Sat	@	*Iowa	41%	L
10/11	Sat	vs.	*Michigan State	43%	L
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Purdue	48%	L
10/25	Sat	@	*Indiana	44%	L
11/1	Sat	@	*Minnesota	50%	W
11/8	Sat	vs.	*Ohio State	14%	L
11/15	Sat	@	*Michigan	34%	L
11/22	Sat	vs.	*Illinois	43%	L
Favored: 4-8   Projected: 5-7

2008 Season Outlook Northwestern football seasons typically feature the Wildcats pulling a few upsets, and having a few wild, high-scoring games, and sometimes these happen at the same time, such as last year's win over Michigan State (48-41 OT). They also beat Minnesota 49-48 in overtime, and scored a small upset by beating Indiana. But the biggest upset they were involved in last season was a loss, at home, to Duke.

So even as we favor the Wildcats in only three games, the projection accounts for a few upsets and another would bring them back to 6-6. The season can be divided into three groups. The first four are the easiest, and Northwestern should win three or even go 4-0. Then the next five games are all potentially close, and the 'Cats could upset a couple teams here, particularly Minnesota, the ultimate tossup. The final three games are probable losses. Sutton and Bacher will need to have really good luck to reach seven and a bowl game, but there are enough close games on the schedule that it could happen—they just need to rack up as many wins as they can as early as possible.

2008 Pre-season 120: #71-75 - Hawaii down; Duke, Miami in dead heat

SportsRatings is ranking all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August until the season begins. These rankings are meant to reflect how good the teams might be in 2008 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for each team, and two projected records are given: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and another cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty in the predictions. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. (Schedule listings adapted from James Howell's site)

This installment covers teams from #71 to #75. To see the full list, click here.

71. Hawai'i Warriors

2007 Results:    Record: 12-1    Bowl: Lost to Georgia 41-10 (Sugar Bowl)  Poll finish: #19 AP #17 USA 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #54    Success: #12    Combined: #41
Vastly overrated last year in terms of real strength, the Warriors had an amazing undefeated regular season against a weak schedule. But numerous losses at key positions and a coaching change bring them back down to earth in 2008.
Offense (3 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #23   Adj. Rush Yards: #120    Adj. Pass Yards: #2
Only Texas Tech had a better passing game than Hawaii last season. But unlike Tech, the Warriors don't return the key components of that attack. First and foremost, Colt Brennan is gone after passing for 4,343 yards and 38 TDs with a 70.4% completion rate. Backup Tyler Graunke subbed well for Brennan a few time last year, with 1,234 yards and 10 TDs (65.4%, 6 INT), but he's had academic problems and is missed fall practice, leaving the door slightly open for Inoke Funaki (3TDs last year) or others. But that's just the tip of the iceberg. Gone are the four leading pass catchers, including 1,000 yard receivers Ryan Grice-Mullen, Davone Bess, and Jason Rivers. The offensive line loses 1st team All-American Hercules Satele, but three starters return and with all their running backs still in house, maybe it's time to improve that last-in-the-nation ground game?
Defense (4 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #82    Adj. Rush Def: #56    Adj. Pass Def: #34
Last year's coordinator Greg McMackin, who has experience at the pro level, improved the Warrior defense a lot last season and takes over as head coach. Overall the Hawaii D wasn't terrible, but it couldn't keep up with the offense, which scored so quickly the D found itself on the field a lot. Only Fale Laeli returns to the front four as a starter, but two linebackers—the team's top tacklers, Solomon Elimimian and Adam Leonard—are back. Two part-time starters are back in the secondary, plus Ryan Mouton, who may be the star of the unit. Though returning starters are few in number, a large percentage of the defensive reserves return to fill the remaining holes.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Both kicker Dan Kelly (70 of 74 PATs) and punter Tim Grasso (39.7 ave.) return for 2008.
Recruiting: June Jones proved you don't need to have stellar recruiting to win at Hawaii; Colt Brennan was a transfer, for example. Hawaii's last two classes rank roughly 80th in the nation, i.e., lower than 2/3 of all I-A schools. With so many wide receivers gone, some redshirt freshmen should see action at that position along with JUCO transfers Javonte Taylor and Dustin Blount.

Hawai'i 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	@	Florida	10%	L
9/6	Sat	vs.	Weber State	74%	W
9/13	Sat	@	Oregon State	37%	L
9/27	Sat	vs.	*San Jose State	66%	W
10/4	Sat	@	*Fresno State	35%	L
10/11	Sat	vs.	*Louisiana Tech	63%	W
10/17	Fri	@	*Boise State	35%	L
10/25	Sat	vs.	*Nevada	57%	W
11/1	Sat	@	*Utah State	58%	W
11/8	Sat	@	*New Mexico State	65%	W
11/22	Sat	vs.	*Idaho	67%	W
11/29	Sat	vs.	Washington State	50%	W
12/6	Sat	vs.	Cincinnati	37%	L
Favored: 8-5  Projected: 7-6

2008 Season Outlook It's not surprising that Hawaii plays much better at home, given the several-thousand-mile flights required for road games (and the same suffered by teams visiting Honolulu). Last season demonstrated this contrast. On the road, the Warriors needed overtime to beat mediocre teams Louisiana Tech and San Jose State, and squeaked past Nevada 28-26. At home, they blew away similar opponents and were able to get past the only winning teams on their schedule, Fresno State and Boise State, as well as Pac-10 Washington. 

Finally, though, they faced a winning team outside of Hawaii, and it was essentially a home game for Georgia. The results were entirely predictable.

So while I haven't granted the Warriors any extra home field advantage, or road disadvantage, looking at this year's schedule we can mentally adjust for it. The road game at Florida and home contest against Weber State are pretty obvious, and generally Hawaii is favored at home and underdogs on the road anyway. The home game against Washington State is listed as a very close win, but is probably more certain than that. Likewise, the road wins vs. Utah State and Nevada should be scrutinized, and there may be the potential for upsetting Cincinnati, though that is still unlikely. All in all, Gators and Bearcats notwithstanding, the Warriors still have an easy schedule and should manage a winning record in their 13 game schedule. They won't get back to the Sugar Bowl, but considering their personnel losses they would have to be somewhat pleased with a result like this.

72. Miami Hurricanes

2007 Results:    Record: 5-7    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #74    Success: #72    Combined: #74
Losses to the pros and uncertainty at quarterback halt the 'Canes march back to quality; though strong recruiting stems Miami's decline, unfortunate scheduling may make it appeear the program is still in trouble.
Offense (4 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #83   Adj. Rush Yards: #57    Adj. Pass Yards: #110
The Hurricanes' problems start at quarterback. Though Kyle Wright and Kirby Freeman didn't excel by any means last year, their departures leave no experience at the position. The contest at Quarterback U. comes down to redshirt freshman Robert Marve vs. true freshman Jacory Harris, and coach Randy Shannon has said he'll use both, likely meaning neither has lit up the practice field. Time to emphasize the run, which worked much better last year anyway? The three top backs return, including Graig Cooper and starter Javarris James and both should be healthier this year. The O-line returns two starters and gains coach's son Xavier Shannon from FIU (another example of the grad-student-in-obscure-program instant-transfer rule that is so popular this season).
Defense (5 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #62    Adj. Rush Def: #58    Adj. Pass Def: #47
The defense was set to make gains this year, but top players Calais Cambell and Kenny Phillips bolted for the pros. The result is another questionable year, and Shannon hired Bill Young from Kansas to replace Tim Walton as coordinator. The best returning player on the front four is Eric Moncur, who has been having some kind of health trouble in fall camp. At linebacker they bring in a slew of highly -touted freshman to shore things up, and two starters return in the secondary to soften the blow of losing Phillips. Overall, though, the Canes lose their top four tacklers from last season, and while improvement is still a possibility, they are far from having the dominant Miami defenses of the last few decades.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Punter Matt Bosher returns, having averaged 40 yards and 35 net as a redshirt freshman. Kickers Francesco Zampogna and Daren Daly move on, leaving an opening that may be filled by Bosher or true frosh Jake Wieclaw.
Recruiting: Miami's recruiting under Randy Shannon has made a great recovery. From his first (partial) class that ranked 14th to the 2008 crop in ranked the top five, Miami will have a plethora of new talent to exploit this season, filling in holes and even taking on key roles. The best example is at quarterback, of course, as well as kicker and linebacker. True freshman Aldarius Johnson is starting at wide receiver, and Marcus Forston may start at defensive tackle. In all, nine players enrolled early to make spring practice. The incoming players from these two classes will stanch the bleeding in the program this season and lead its recovery in future years.

Miami 2008 schedule & forecast
8/28	Thu	vs.	Charleston Southern	90%	W
9/6	Sat	@	Florida	9%	L
9/20	Sat	@	Texas A&M	36%	L
9/27	Sat	vs.	*North Carolina	41%	L
10/4	Sat	vs.	*Florida State	39%	L
10/11	Sat	vs.	Central Florida	48%	L
10/18	Sat	@	*Duke	47%	L
10/25	Sat	vs.	*Wake Forest	40%	L
11/1	Sat	@	*Virginia	43%	L
11/13	Thu	vs.	*Virginia Tech	40%	L
11/20	Thu	@	*Georgia Tech	44%	L
11/29	Sat	@	*North Carolina State	51%	W
Favored: 2-10  Projected: 5-7

2008 Season Outlook Things weren't going so bad mid-way through 2007. The hope had been that the dismal 2006 season (7-6) was the low point off of which the program would bounce. Despite being destroyed at Oklahoma, they blasted Texas A&M and were 4-1. They lost to UNC after rallying from 27-0 down, and lost at home to Georgia Tech but beat Florida State in Tallahassee and were 5-3. Then they had another late collapse, losing four in a row, including an embarrassing 48-0 stomp by Virginia in the Canes' last game in the Orange Bowl. Instead of a bounce, there was further decline from the previous season, especially on defense in later games.

The 2008 Hurricane schedule, too, is not favorable. After the first game, Miami travels to the swamp, and after that the teams they could beat at home (Virginia, Georgia Tech) are all on the road. They even come out to slight underdogs to Duke on the road. The home contests are against better teams. I have them favored only in the opener and the closer, and it could be a long year for Miami. But bulk of the season is a stretch of games which should be very close; the odds of winning some of these (UCF and Duke are strong probabilities) should put them closer to last year's record than 2-10, but still I don't foresee improvement in record or bowl eligibility unless the the new freshmen—including whoever takes over as quarterback—exceed expectations.

73. Duke Blue Devils

2007 Results:    Record: 1-11    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #95    Success: #113    Combined: #95
Duke made a lot of progress last year; it just didn't show up in the W column. It will this season.
Offense (6.5 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #92    Adj. Rush Yards: #115    Adj. Pass Yards: #75
Thaddeus Lewis is a talented QB who had 21 TD passes and only 10 INTs, which is an accomplishment when playing for a team like Duke, who has little running game to take pressure off. He's back along with top wide receiver Eron Riley. Three starters return on the line for improved protection, and hopefully to help leading rusher Re'quan Boyette—who had just 432 yards, and is now sidelined indefinitely after knee surgery—or his backups gain more ground. No one's going to run in fear of this offense but it should be a step up from '07.
Defense (10 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #91    Adj. Rush Def: #75    Adj. Pass Def: #109
The pass defense is where Duke fell apart mainly, and three of four starters return to the fold, which should help matters. Essentially the entire front four is back, and the linebacking corps is solid too, in terms of experience. Duke returns seven of their top eight tacklers, 10 of 11 starters, and 16 of 22 on the 2nd and 3rd string; this unit should be the best Duke has had in a while.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Punter Kevin Jones is back after averaging a mediocre 38 ypp, but he's reliable compared to the placekickers. Last season Duke made just 3 of 10 between Nick Maggio and Joe Surgan. This is a big problem area for the Blue Devils if they are to increase their scoring.
Recruiting: New coach David Cutcliffe takes over a program where expectations are worse than the team's actual recruiting level. The 2007 and 2008 classes are just below average for the nation, while the team has been far worse than that. With so much experience returning, there may be little room for new players but if the team rises to the level of recruiting in the next few years that alone will look like a great success.

Duke 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	James Madison	53%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	Northwestern	52%	W
9/13	Sat	vs.	Navy	58%	W
9/27	Sat	vs.	*Virginia	49%	L
10/4	Sat	@	*Georgia Tech	43%	L
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Miami (Florida)	53%	W
10/25	Sat	@	Vanderbilt	42%	L
11/1	Sat	@	*Wake Forest	33%	L
11/8	Sat	vs.	*North Carolina State	58%	W
11/15	Sat	@	*Clemson	21%	L
11/22	Sat	@	*Virginia Tech	33%	L
11/29	Sat	vs.	*North Carolina	40%	L
Favored: 5-7  Projected: 5-7

2008 Season Outlook Instead of losing a lot of games by a lot of points, Duke made progress last year by losing a lot of games by a lot fewer points.

After beating Northwestern on the road in the third game of the 2007 season, the Blue Devils nearly beat Navy, were close to Miami again, and should have beaten North Carolina in the season finale. There were no shutouts suffered in '08 compared to three in '07.

The schedule is very favorable this year. The first four games are at home, and the Blue Devils have a shot in all of them. Though tight, they should beat James Madison and again Northwestern, while Navy has fallen a lot and Virginia is vulnerable. After that, they could get their first victory over Miami after coming so close the last two years, and N.C.State provides a likely ACC home win. Duke should finish with five wins for the year, and with really good luck could be bowl eligible. Of course many of these wins are iffy, but it's pretty certain that they'll exceed last year's total.

74. New Mexico Lobos

2007 Results:    Record: 9-4    Bowl: Beat Nevada 23-0 (New Mexico Bowl)    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #61    Success: #56    Combined: #61
The Lobos are down a notch this year on both offense and defense but return enough key players to keep them competitive overall in the Mountain West.
Offense (5 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #86   Adj. Rush Yards: #83    Adj. Pass Yards: #48
The two key players are back: quarterback Donovan Porterie, who threw for just over 3,000 yards (15 TDs) and 1,000 yard rusher Rodney Ferguson (13 TDs). It's the supporting cast that's spotty. Only one starter, center Eric Cook, returns on the line, and the Lobos lose two 1,000 yard receivers in Marcus Smith and Travis Brown. It may be hard for both Porterie and Ferguson to repeat their '07 stats.
Defense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #36   Adj. Rush Def: #37    Adj. Pass Def: #11
The Lobo defense held opponents to 10 or less five times last year, and the pass defense was especially good. It will be strong again with three starters back in the secondary. The rushing defense will probably suffer, as only Wesely Beck returns in the front three, and all three pure linebackers must be replaced in the 3-3-5 scheme. The Lobos are set at the "Lobo" position, a hybrid linebacker/secondary spot, with starter Clint McPeek returning and leading tackler Ian Clark backing him up. New defensive coordinator Troy Reffett has suggested he may put one of them at a true linebacker position so both can start.
Kicking Game (0 RS): The Lobos must replace both kicker John Sullivan (29 of 35 FGs) and punter Jordan Scott (38.0). Matt Barnard has some punting experience, but the new kicker will either be a redshirt freshman or a true freshman walk-on.
Recruiting: New Mexico's recruiting is well below the level of progress the program has made. This is either a complement or criticism of head coach Rocky Long. The last two classes rank about 90th in the nation, and with recently-announced sanctions on the school that place limits on recruiting, it probably won't be getting better any time soon. This year to shore up the offensive line, Long brought in a bunch of solid JUCO players, and a number of redshirt freshmen will contribute on defense.

New Mexico 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	*Texas Christian	43%	L
9/6	Sat	vs.	Texas A&M	42%	L
9/13	Sat	vs.	Arizona	37%	L
9/20	Sat	@	Tulsa	40%	L
9/27	Sat	@	New Mexico State	64%	W
10/4	Sat	vs.	*Wyoming	54%	W
10/11	Sat	@	*Brigham Young	28%	L
10/18	Sat	vs.	*San Diego State	61%	W
10/23	Thu	@	*Air Force	51%	W
11/1	Sat	vs.	*Utah	35%	L
11/8	Sat	@	*Nevada-Las Vegas	51%	W
11/15	Sat	@	*Colorado State	52%	W
Favored: 6-6  Projected: 6-6

2008 Season Outlook Last season's 9 wins included four by three points each, and only one victory over a winning team. They finished strong in the New Mexico Bowl by stomping Nevada 23-0. It was one of the rare times that both the offense and defense played to their potential in the same game.

Next year looks to be a bit tougher. Four tough games open the season, and the Lobos could be 0-4 before winning at rival New Mexico State. They should recover nicely, but the Mountain West is home to two very good teams this year. Still, I have them winning most of their conference games, even the majority of the road games, though many should be close. That's okay, though—New Mexico has ample experience winning the close games. And if they emerge from September with two or three wins, the season could be a lot better. I don't see them being able to match nine wins in '08 however.

75. Central Michigan Chippewas

2007 Results:    Record: 8-6    Bowl: Lost 51-48 to Purdue (Motor City bowl)    Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #78    Success: #73    Combined: #78
A great offense and terrible defense worked well enough in the MAC last year for Chippewas to win the league title. That won't work in this year's MAC, so Central Michigan's defense has to improve. Both side of the ball are better in '08, but will it be enough?
Offense (8 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #29   Adj. Rush Yards: #56    Adj. Pass Yards: #27
Dan LeFevour is suddenly all over the place; he's been discovered by the college football establishment that normally only pays attention to the major conferences. But look what he had to do to get recognition: pass for 3,652 yards and 27 TDs at a 65.4% completion rate; and rush for 1,122 net yards and 19 TDs. The "20/20 club" Tim Tebow was so fawned over for founding? LeFevour was one rushing TD away from becoming the 2nd member. And he did become the 2nd member of Vince Young's 3,000/1,000 club. LeFevour, a junior, is back along with his two top receivers Bryan Anderson and Antonio Brown (both over 1,000 yards), running back Justin Hoskins (10 TDs), and four starters on the offensive line. This offense should be fearsome in 2008, definitely one of the top 25 in the nation.
Defense (8 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #113    Adj. Rush Def: #74    Adj. Pass Def: #120
The defense has a lot farther to go to reach elite status, especially against the pass, where they rank dead last. Not that the rushing defense is stellar, either, but it's reasonable for the MAC. Luckily both get a boost: Essentially three of the front four return with extra depth at defensive end, and almost all of the secondary remains intact. They did lose safety E.J. McLaughlin to academics recently; let's hope the others have done their homework both on and off the field. At linebacker they lose Red Keith and Ike Brown, their two top tacklers from '07 and two of the better defenders ever to play for the Chippewas. But Nick Bellore returns and '06 starter Calvin Hissong will ease the losses. Overall the D should be a lot better, with the rushing defense stauncher and the pass defense at least not nearly as horrendous.
Kicking Game (1 RS): So-so punter Tony Mikulec is gone; redshirt sophomore Brett Hartmann is taking over. Kicker Andrew Aguila returns; he has decent range and in '07 he made 60 of 64 extra points but was inaccurate outside the 30.
Recruiting: Though they are the current MAC power, the Chippewas' recruiting has not caught up with the team's success. You would think they were a lower-ranking MAC team or a Sun Belt member from their 100th+ class rankings in 2007 and 2008. They still manage some standout recruits, such as running back Jahleel Addae, who may see action this year, especially if backup Ontario Sneed doesn't recover fully from an off-season injury.

Central Michigan 2008 schedule & forecast
8/28	Thu	vs.	Eastern Illinois	74%	W
9/6	Sat	@	Georgia	17%	L
9/13	Sat	@	*Ohio	55%	W
9/20	Sat	@	Purdue	39%	L
9/27	Sat	vs.	*Buffalo	57%	W
10/11	Sat	vs.	*Temple	57%	W
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Western Michigan	56%	W
10/25	Sat	@	*Toledo	51%	W
11/1	Sat	@	Indiana	42%	L
11/12	Wed	@	*Northern Illinois	58%	W
11/19	Wed	vs.	*Ball State	47%	L
11/28	Fri	@	*Eastern Michigan	53%	W
Favored: 8-4  Projected: 6-6

2008 Season Outlook Take Purdue out of the equation and Central Michigan had a wonderful 2007. Actually all of the Chippewa losses were painful in one way or another, it's just that the Boilermakers got them twice: once early in the season in West Lafayette, 44-22, and then in the Motor City Bowl closer to home, 51-48, where Purdue took a big lead but watched LeFevour tie the game before Purdue hit a last second field goal.

The 52-7 loss to Kansas and 70-21 at Clemson were painful for obvious reasons. The loss to Eastern Michigan stung for three reasons: losing to a rival, at home, by just a field goal. The North Dakota State game? At home, to a Division I-AA team, by a score of 44-14. The common thread to all these losses is defensive inadequacy; the Chippewas gave up an average of 52 points in their losing efforts. No offense can overcome that burden.  

They face Purdue again, as well as Indiana, and even Georgia, all on the road. All look like losses, but it will be interesting to see how, say, Georgia does defending against Central Michigan. They shut down Hawaii last year and Boise State in 2005, but I think they'll have more trouble with LeFevour. Georgia's offense will likely shred the Chippewas like they did those other schools, but the opposite matchup will be fun to watch. Eastern Illinois is a generous substitute for North Dakota State. In conference, it looks like another good yearr; they best last year's regular-season 7-5 mark. The MAC is much improved, but Central Michigan has a shot at winning it again.

College football 2008 Pre-season 120: #76-80 - Gophers still in Big Ten hole

SportsRatings is ranking all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August until the season begins. These rankings are meant to reflect how good the teams might be in 2008 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for each team, and two projected records are given: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and another cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty in the predictions. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. (Schedule listings adapted from James Howell's site)

This installment covers teams from #76 to #80. To see the full list, click here.

76. Wyoming Cowboys

2007 Results:    Record: 5-7    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #81    Success: #74    Combined: #80
The Cowboys return their full offensive line and the bulk of the reserves on offense and defense, pushing them a bit higher, though not substantially. But it might be enough to take coach Joe Glenn off the hot seat with a bowl berth...if they win their close games.
Offense (8 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #98   Adj. Rush Yards: #85    Adj. Pass Yards: #76
Wyoming dodged a small-caliber bullet recently when Greg Bolling, the only returnee of the top four receivers last year, finally became academically eligible for the fall. QB Karsten Sween needs all the help he can get as he tries to bring his INT numbers (17) down. The top two backs including almost-1,000-yard-rusher Devin Moore return, and the entire starting O-line is back, so the rushing totals should go up and Sween have more time to throw.
Defense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #61    Adj. Rush Def: #29    Adj. Pass Def: #27
The defensive line returns three starters in the Cowboys' modified 3-4. They lose Sean Claffey and a handful of other part-time starters at linebacker, but Ward Dobbs, team leader in tackles in '07. And the secondary is a mixed bag with two starters returning and two leaving. The defense in 2007 was good at limiting teams below their average yardage but opponents still scored their average point totals; turnovers can cause such a disconnect—and Wyoming had 31 last season.
Kicking Game (0 RS): Punter/kicker Billy Vinnedge must be replaced for '08; he was a good punter and strong placekicker (57 long). Soph Nick Landess and junior Jake Scott will try to fill his shoes, though true freshman Austin McCoy will likely handle kickoffs and may compete for the punting job, too.
Recruiting: Wyoming's recruiting lately hasn't measured up to the program's quality level. Both Glenn's '07 and '08 classes ranked about 100th in the nation, and though Wyoming isn't Notre Dame, the team certainly rates far higher than 20 other programs. But teams like Wyoming tend to get all they can out of lower-rated players; even this year, where most of the 2nd string returned on offense and defense, there are several redshirt freshmen listed in the 2-deep, including projected starting LB Gabe Knapton. And Sween had to protect his job from JUCO transfer Dax Crum, an '08 recruit.

Wyoming 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Ohio	60%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	*Air Force	56%	W
9/13	Sat	vs.	North Dakota State	50%	L
9/20	Sat	@	*Brigham Young	27%	L
9/27	Sat	vs.	Bowling Green	55%	W
10/4	Sat	@	*New Mexico	45%	L
10/11	Sat	vs.	*Utah	33%	L
10/25	Sat	@	*Texas Christian	35%	L
11/1	Sat	vs.	*San Diego State	59%	W
11/8	Sat	@	Tennessee	26%	L
11/15	Sat	@	*Nevada-Las Vegas	49%	L
11/22	Sat	vs.	*Colorado State	58%	W
Favored: 5-7   Projected: 6-6

2008 Season Outlook Wyoming kicked off the 2007 season with an incredible victory...in retrospect. Beating Virginia 23-3 didn't mean as much at the time, but the Cowboys started 4-1, losing only to Boise State, and looked to be heading for a great season.

Then the tide turned, and the losses started coming. At first they were competitive when losing, but the dam burst at Utah and Glenn had to flip them the bird. They finished by dropping four straight, and six out of seven, second to last in the MWC, and of course, no bowl game.

This season shouldn't go quite that bad. The Cowboys will to have a winning record if they win all the games they're supposed to and can win the true tossups. Wyoming will probably beat Ohio, Air Force, Bowling Green, SDSU, and Colorado State to match last year's record. Contests against Utah and at BYU, TCU, and Tennessee are very unlikely wins. This leaves three other possibilities, two particularly crucial. The first is the home game against I-AA North Dakota State, which happens to be one of the best teams in that division. This is really a good test for the Cowboys; if they are 3-0 at this juncture, that bodes very well for the season. And the late-season game at UNLV might be necessary to put them in a bowl game, assuming things have gone fairly well to that point. More than most teams, this season could fall one way or the other based on winning or losing tight games.

77. Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles

2007 Results:    Record: 7-6    Bowl: L to Cincinnati (Pappajohns.com Bowl)    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #72    Success: #78    Combined: #71
Too many key players are missing for the Eagles to be as good as last year. But if they can avoid upsets, this season might turn out just as well, or better.
Offense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #88   Adj. Rush Yards: #44    Adj. Pass Yards: #105
The pass wasn't as important to the Eagles last year as the run, so if fans had to choose, they'd probably rather have Damion Fletcher (1,586 yards, 15 TDs) back than QB Jeremy Young (11 TDs, 8 INTs). But losing both co-starting quarterbacks (Fletcher and Stephen Reaves, 943 yds, 3 TDs, 8 INTs) leaves them without a leader at the position. And all is not rosy at running back even with Fletcher there; backup Antwain Easterling was dismissed for violating a team rule, and the offensive line loses three starters. In a rare bit of good news, 2nd-leading rusher Tory Harrison was reinstated to the team after being suspended in the spring. And two top wide receivers and tight end Shawn Nelson return if someone can be found to pass to them.
Defense (4 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #50    Adj. Rush Def: #59    Adj. Pass Def: #51
The problems on the offensive side are mirrored on defense. Biggest concern: not a single starter returns on the front four. The linebackers are in better shape with Tokumbo Abanikanda and leading tackler Gerald McRath back. And the secondary returns a couple of starters and some good backups. Still, the weakness of the line takes Southern Miss' average defense down a few notches.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Punter Britt Barefoot (yes, he wears shoes) had a 37 yard net last year, and kicker Justin Estes has a solid short game but is sketchy beyond the 35. Both return for '08, and Estes should improve as he was a true freshman last year.
Recruiting: This is one case where recruiting can have an immediate impact on a team. Whether or not Larry Fedora was a factor in his first recruiting season, this year's group is markedly improved, ranking 42nd in the nation to the '07 class' 59. New members of both classes will help out immediately: '07 recruit Austin Davis will battle for the starting QB job, while on the decimated defensive line, two '08 JUCO recruits will join true frosh cousins Josh and Bo Tillman as backups.

Southern Miss 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Louisiana-Lafayette	66%	W
9/6	Sat	@	Auburn	23%	L
9/13	Sat	@	Arkansas State	53%	W
9/20	Sat	vs.	*Marshall	56%	W
10/4	Sat	vs.	*Texas-El Paso	61%	W
10/11	Sat	vs.	Boise State	39%	L
10/18	Sat	@	*Rice	57%	W
10/25	Sat	@	*Memphis	53%	W
11/1	Sat	vs.	*UAB	67%	W
11/8	Sat	@	*Central Florida	40%	L
11/15	Sat	vs.	*East Carolina	46%	L
11/29	Sat	@	*SMU	58%	W
Favored: 6-6  Projected: 8-4

2008 Season Outlook Fans can't really complain about last year's season—except for a couple of wins that got away. The Eagles pretty much beat who they were expected to (Tennessee-Martin, SMU, Marshall, Arkansas State, etc.) and lost the games that looked daunting at the season's beginning (at Tennessee, at Boise State). But two of their losses were closely-contested upsets—at home.

At 2-2 after losing only the aforementioned road games, Southern Miss was upset at home by Rice, 31-29, after committing seven turnovers. They went 3-1 in the next four games before bowing to Memphis, 29-26, in Hattiesburg, when the Tigers shocked them with 15 points in the last five minutes. Still, the Eagles went to a bowl game, and did an admirable job of staying competitive with a tough Cincinnati team.

And this season, if they don't get upset at home again, or on the road at Rice and Memphis where I figure they should win, they'll better last year's record with a less talented team. I figure the newcomers from the quality recruiting classes will gain experience during the year and see this team through what could be a tough year. As usual, the uncertainly of so many close games makes a 6-6 year a strong possibility, but with more upside than downside.

78. Nevada Wolf Pack

2007 Results:    Record: 6-7    Bowl: Lost to New Mexico 23-0 (New Mexico Bowl)    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #83    Success: #83    Combined: #83
The offense looks great; the defense looks bad. Sounds like last year all over again, but even moreso.
Offense (8 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #51    Adj. Rush Yards: #29    Adj. Pass Yards: #26
The Wolf Pack offense knows how to rack up the yards. QB Colin Kaepernick threw for over 2,000 yards while Nick Graziano threw for over 1,000 in essentially 1/3 of a season. And they run, too: Luke Lippencott gained 1,420 yards and had 20 TDs. But Kaepernick is the star of this show. The freshman completed just 54%, but had a 19-3 TD/INT ratio and ran for nearly 600 yards (6 TDs) to boot. Marko Mitchell (1,129 yards) caught 8 of the TD passes that CK and Graziano (10 TDs) lobbed. All of the above are back for this offense, and with four of the five starters back on the O-Line, the Pack could have one of the better offenses in the country in '08.
Defense (4 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #106    Adj. Rush Def: #100    Adj. Pass Def: #46
Too bad the same can't be said of the defense, which goes from bad to worse this year. Only one full-time starter returns in the front four, and while other players with starting experience join him, they lose Matt Hines, and Erics Clark's petition for a 6th year fell through. At linebacker they lose their leading tackler Ezra Butler, but returning is Josh Magua, who wasn't far behind despite playing only seven games. The pass defense number is better than the reality, since teams could run on Nevada at will and didn't need to pass; but in the 2nd half of the season when the run defense tightened, the pass D's numbers declined quickly (also skewing the number was the game against Nicholls State, who had 0 yards on 1 attempt). Only one starter returns in the secondary.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Consistent kicker Brett Jaekle returns for his senior year with the Pack; he's also set to take over as punter from outgoing Zachary Whited.
Recruiting: Nevada's recruiting isn't stellar, and in Chris Ault's 24th year it isn't likely to improve dramatically. The last two classes ranked just inside the top 100 nationally. But recruiting is also a game of needs vs. wants. The 2008 class included three solid JUCO players who will help fill in the defensive secondary's holes, and four redshirt freshmen from the '07 class will help in other defensive weak areas.

Nevada 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Grambling State	68%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	Texas Tech	20%	L
9/13	Sat	@	Missouri	15%	L
9/27	Sat	@	Nevada-Las Vegas	49%	L
10/4	Sat	@	*Idaho	57%	W
10/11	Sat	vs.	*New Mexico State	69%	W
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Utah State	62%	W
10/25	Sat	@	*Hawaii	43%	L
11/7	Fri	@	*Fresno State	32%	L
11/15	Sat	vs.	*San Jose State	63%	W
11/22	Sat	vs.	*Boise State	39%	L
11/29	Sat	@	*Louisiana Tech	53%	W
Favored: 6-6  Projected: 6-6

2008 Season Outlook Whether their opponent was good or bad, Nevada usually played them close; they were 3-5 in games decided by 8 or fewer points last year. The surprising ones were close losses to Hawaii (28-26) at home and at Boise State (69-67 4OT, one of the highest scoring games ever in college football). The Wolf Pack also got blown out (52-10 at Nebraska), blew another team out (49-10 LA Tech), and finally got blanked, 23-0, by New Mexico in the bowl game they earned with their sixth win.

This year I don't foresee nearly as many close games. Even with Boise State and especially Hawaii not nearly as good, those are probably losses along with the obvious Texas Tech, Missouri, and Fresno State. Wins over Grambling, Idaho, New Mexico State, Utah State and San Jose State ought to be comfortable. The road games vs. UNLV and Louisiana Tech should be tight, though. I see Nevada repeating a 6-6 year give or take a game, but the main difference will be even more scoring—both for and against.

79. Minnesota Golden Gophers

2007 Results:    Record: 1-11    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #84   Success: #116    Combined: #84
The Gophers are headed in the right direction, with a great offense and (hopefully) improving defense, but still won't win much in the Big Ten.
Offense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #50    Adj. Rush Yards: #39    Adj. Pass Yards: #39
Minnesota's offense was actually quite good. Not for a major conference team, but overall they had respectable numbers rushing, passing, and scoring. Quarterback Adam Weber gets most of the credit for this. The redshirt freshman passed for nearly 3,000 yards and 24 TDs and was the team's leading rusher as well (617 net). He returns this season, along with top target Eric Decker, but without Eric Wheelwright and tight end Tray Herndon, who was recently released from his scholarship. 2nd leading rusher Amir Pinnix is gone, but majority starter Duane Bennett and backup Jay Thomas return to carry on the Gopher tradition of a solid running game, which was damaged somewhat last year as no back ran for 1,000 yards (in several seasons this decade they had two the same year). The youngish O-line is somewhat of a question, but again tradition dictates that the line remain sound and there is ample returning experience.
Defense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #107    Adj. Rush Def: #116    Adj. Pass Def: #119
The Gopher defense is another matter. If there's a tradition forming on this unit, it's one of underperformance. The numbers tell the story: Minnesota could stop neither the run or the pass, and gave up 30+ points 10 times last season. It's a mixed bag for '08, which probably means another poor year with yet another new defensive coordinator. On the front four, essentially 2 1/2 starters are back, so the dismal rush D should be somewhat better. At linebacker, two of three starters return including 2nd leading tackler Deon Hightower. They had high hope for true frosh Sam Maresh, but he won't play this year if ever (see Recruiting). The secondary returns another 1 1/2 equivalent, which again suggests improvement only in the sense that they can't get worse. In all three of the four top tacklers are lost.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Walk-on Joel Monroe returns as kicker after making all his PATs and 7 of 9 FGs last season. Improved punter Justin Kucek also returns after averaging a solid 42.7. In terms of returning kicks, last year's promising return man Harold Howell left due to academics.
Recruiting: Tim Brewster's 2nd class was a dramatic improvement over his first, transitional class which ranked outside the top 50. The 2008 class was consensus top 25, and with many top JUCOs and Brewster's willingness to play freshman they will make an immediate impact. Brewster's ability to hold the recruits he gets has come into question. Several members of the '07 class—including his son, QB Clint, and Herndon and Howell—have left the team, and there is talk that a lot of the '08 class won't pass clearinghouse. The most unfortunate story of the 08 class is unrelated to academics. Linebacker Sam Maresh was found to have a life-threatening heart condition that required immediate surgery. Though the operation was a success, it's doubtful he will ever play college ball, but he's personally targetting a spring '09 return. Good luck to him.

Minnesota 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Northern Illinois	63%	W
9/6	Sat	@	Bowling Green	48%	L
9/13	Sat	vs.	Montana State	69%	W
9/20	Sat	vs.	Florida Atlantic	46%	L
9/27	Sat	@	*Ohio State	3%	L
10/4	Sat	vs.	*Indiana	48%	L
10/11	Sat	@	*Illinois	32%	L
10/25	Sat	@	*Purdue	37%	L
11/1	Sat	vs.	*Northwestern	50%	W
11/8	Sat	vs.	*Michigan	38%	L
11/15	Sat	@	*Wisconsin	30%	L
11/22	Sat	vs.	*Iowa	45%	L
Favored: 3-9  Projected: 5-7

2008 Season Outlook A season-opening 1-point overtime loss to Bowling Green did not bode well for the Gophers. Neither did the subsequent overtime win vs. Miami of Ohio. When you split two home games with the MAC, something is wrong. The Miami win would be the Gophers' sole victory of '07. The low point was a loss to North Dakota State, whom they beat only 10-9 the year before. They had their share of competitive games, usually because the offense kept up, but the defense always yielded in the end.

The good news on the schedule is that North Dakota State isn't on it. Instead they open with Northern Illinois, Bowling Green, Montana State, and Florida Atlantic (at home this time), all of which could be wins. I give them two of those four, and they could easily win the Northwestern and Indiana games along with the first four and they'd go from 1-11 to bowl eligible! I think 5-7 is a more realistic ceiling for this team, and 4-8 is the probably outcome. Still, an improvement, considering the team's defensive woes, but as the reasoning goes: the offense is better, and the defense can't get any worse.

80. Houston Cougars

2007 Results:    Record: 8-5    Bowl: L to TCU 20-13 (Texas Bowl)    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #73    Success: #70    Combined: #73
Houston slips a notch without their star running back.
Offense (5 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #60   Adj. Rush Yards: #24    Adj. Pass Yards: #41
Anthony Alridge provided the push for the offense, gaining nearly 1,600 yards for the season. He's gone, and while sophomores Andre Kohn and Terrance Ganaway should do an adequate job as replacements, the loss hurts. The Cougars' third leading rusher was QB Case Keenum, who along with Blake Joseph passed for 3,500 yards and 23 TDs. Both QBs are back, but they lose five of their top six targets as they move into a spread offense under new head coach Kevin Sumlin. The O-line loses two full-time starters but returns the other three, plus a 5th year senior (SirVincent Rogers) who sat out last year.
Defense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #85    Adj. Rush Def: #52    Adj. Pass Def: #52
The defense wasn't bad last year against the run or the pass, but they gave up a lot of points. With three starters back up front (now a 4-3) including Phillip Hunt (10.5 sacks), the rushing defense should be even better, and the passing defense is in good shape with an experienced secondary that returns every starter except leading tackler Rocky Schwartz. Only one linebacker returns but overall the defense should improve so that their scoring D more closely resembles their yardage yields.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Chase Turner averaged 42.7 yards per punt last year (with good hangtime) but netted just 31.2, as the fielding squad was one of the nation's worst. The Cougars lose kicker T.J. Lawrence, who was good at short distances (54/55 PATs) but mediocre mid-to-long range, but Ben Bell, the starter from '06, returns.
Recruiting: Houston's last two classes have been a mixed back. Good when compared to other CUSA schools, but nationwide somewhere in the lower third quartile. This is Sumlin's first year, so he can't be judged yet, but as a brand new head coach the odds of him recruiting significantly better than Art Briles did are low.

Houston 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Southern	74%	W
9/6	Sat	@	Oklahoma State	31%	L
9/13	Sat	vs.	Air Force	56%	W
9/20	Sat	@	Colorado State	50%	W
9/27	Sat	@	*East Carolina	38%	L
10/11	Sat	vs.	*UAB	66%	W
10/18	Sat	@	*Southern Methodist	57%	W
10/28	Tue	@	*Marshall	50%	L
11/8	Sat	vs.	*Tulane	61%	W
11/15	Sat	vs.	*Tulsa	44%	L
11/22	Sat	vs.	*Texas-El Paso	60%	W
11/29	Sat	@	*Rice	56%	W
Favored: 8-4   Projected: 6-6

2008 Season Outlook Last year Houston finished the regular season 8-4 without beating a single winning team. This caused them to be significantly overrated, and though they don't slip too much this season, that's from a much lower start than people realize.

But though they lost to every winning team they faced, they didn't lose to any losing teams either, which let them rack up the wins on an easy schedule that included 0-11 Div I-AA Texas Southern. 

This year's schedule isn't any harder, either, meaning the Cougars will only slip a notch in results as well. I favor them in eight games this year, with a few very close contests. All those close games add up to a six win projection, but either way Houston should be bowl eligible again, and if the ball bounces their way—and the spread offense works against real foes as well as it did in the spring game—they could match last season's record.

2008 Pre-season 120: #81-85 - Temple the most-improved team in the most-improved conference

SportsRatings is ranking all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August until the season begins. These rankings are meant to reflect how good the teams might be in 2008 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for each team, and two projected records are given: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and another cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty in the predictions. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. (Schedule listings adapted from James Howell's site)

This installment covers teams from #81 to #85. To see the full list, click here.

81. Miami (Ohio) Redhawks

2007 Results:    Record: 6-7    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #97    Success: #92    Combined: #97
Like many MAC teams—and the teams from #81 to #85 are all MAC teams—Miami is much better this season, after competing for the conference title last year.
Offense (8 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #115   Adj. Rush Yards: #99    Adj. Pass Yards: #66
Last season's offense wasn't a dynamo by any means, and Daniel Raudabaugh didn't set the world on fire with his 12/12 TD/INT ratio. But he's back along with the top seven receivers, so the passing game should dramatically improve whether Raudabaugh or redshirt frosh Clay Belton gets the nod. The running game, however, looks spotty as the top three backs are gone, but the O-line returns three starters to help the new batch along.
Defense (9 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #67    Adj. Rush Def: #99    Adj. Pass Def: #29
Coach Shane Montgomery said his three returning linebackers (Caleb Bostic, Joey Hudson, and Clayton Mullins) were among the best trio in the nation, and they form the backbone of a much improved defense. The secondary already did a fine job considering their pass-happy opposition last year, and three of four starters return to try to up their mediocre interception tally. The bulk of the front four is back, too, hoping to improve on their main weakness: stopping the run, which they could do against poor rushing teams but not decent ones. That the three returning linebackers were the top three tacklers last season demonstrates both that crew's quality, and the fact that runners were getting past the front four too often.
Kicking Game (2 RS): The Redhawks are well stocked here, with two kickers and one of the nation's best punters, Jacob Richardson (45 yd. ave.). Neither kicker is as good, but hopefully one will step up and improve the team's dismal '07 FG percentage.
Recruiting: Miami's '07 and '08 classes were roughly equivalent, about 80th in the country. Standouts from '07 making their debut this season include potential starting QB Belton and lineman Brandon Brooks. With so much youth at running back, '08 recruit Dan Green might see action this season.

Miami OH 2008 schedule & forecast
8/28	Thu	vs.	Vanderbilt	46%	L
9/6	Sat	@	Michigan	30%	L
9/13	Sat	vs.	Charleston Southern	87%	W
9/20	Sat	@	Cincinnati	26%	L
10/4	Sat	vs.	*Temple	54%	W
10/11	Sat	@	*Northern Illinois	55%	W
10/18	Sat	@	*Bowling Green	47%	L
10/25	Sat	vs.	*Kent State	60%	W
11/4	Tue	@	*Buffalo	47%	L
11/11	Tue	vs.	*Ball State	45%	L
11/21	Fri	@	*Toledo	49%	L
11/28	Fri	vs.	*Ohio	59%	W
Favored: 5-7  Projected: 6-6

2008 Season Outlook Last season didn't start very promisingly, with a one-point win over Ball State and three losses—overtime at Minnesota, and blowouts vs. Cincinnati and at Colorado. But after that the Redhawks played everybody close, winning five of eight to finish 6-6 and earning the right to play for the MAC championship. That loss, 35-10 to Central Michigan, was their worst in two months and put them under .500, but most of the team is back.

The schedule has gotten crueler, however. Subbing Michigan for Minnesota is one thing, and they play at Cincy this year and have Vanderbilt rather than Syracuse. The MAC is overall much improved, too. At least Div I-AA Charleston Southern is there for them. All in all, it looks like they'll match last season's record, with ample opportunity to exceed it by winning close games. In fact, they have a shot in every MAC game. But there's just as much chance that they fall short of last year's total, given the conference's improvement.

82. Western Michigan Broncos

2007 Results:    Record: 5-7    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #86    Success: #87    Combined: #86
The Broncos will be better, especially on D, big once again, will it matter in the much-improved MAC?
Offense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #84   Adj. Rush Yards: #106    Adj. Pass Yards: #29
QB Tim Hiller's not the best, but he'll do. He surpassed 3,000 yards with 64% completion and 20 TDs. The 15 INTs could use improvement, but overall not bad for a soph who was criticized so much by his coach. With prime targets Jamarko Simmons and tight end Branden Ledbetter returning, 2008 should be even better for him, if good answers are found at the three open spots on the line. This would help the dismal running game as well, as leading rusher Brandon West returns.
Defense (10 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #88    Adj. Rush Def: #95    Adj. Pass Def: #84
There are far fewer questions on defense. All starters in the front four return and should dramatically improve the porous rushing D; two linebackers are back plus Austin Pritchard returns from injury last year; and four experienced seniors return to the secondary even as 2nd leading tackler Anthony Gebhart moves on. Across-the-board improvement should be the result, theoretically.
Kicking Game (0 RS): Punter Jim Laney (43.9 ave) moves on and redshirt frosh Ben Armer is set to take over. Kicker Mike Jones will be easier to replace; he missed 5 PATs last year, and replacement Chris Kelly got a few goals under his belt last season.
Recruiting: With the defense in such good hands, it's no surprise that the majority of newcomers are listed on offense. Redshirt freshman Anthony Parker should start on the line, while several others will get playing time.

Western Michigan 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	@	Nebraska	35%	L
9/6	Sat	vs.	*Northern Illinois	62%	W
9/13	Sat	@	Idaho	55%	W
9/20	Sat	vs.	Tennessee Tech	83%	W
9/27	Sat	@	*Temple	47%	L
10/4	Sat	vs.	*Ohio	59%	W
10/11	Sat	@	*Buffalo	47%	L
10/18	Sat	@	*Central Michigan	43%	L
11/1	Sat	vs.	*Eastern Michigan	58%	W
11/8	Sat	N	Illinois	35%	L
11/15	Sat	vs.	*Toledo	56%	W
11/25	Tue	@	*Ball State	37%	L
Favored: 6-6  Projected: 6-6

2008 Season Outlook Season-opening losses to West Virginia, Indiana, and Missouri put the Broncos in a hole, and last-minute losses to Akron, Ball State, and Central Michigan buried them at 3-7. But they finished strong, upsetting the Hawkeyes in Iowa City 28-19, and taking down Temple 16-3 to close out the year. 

With the heartbreaking losses out of the way in 2007 (they hope), the Broncos can look forward to a better '08. Due to the overall improvement in the MAC, many of the conference games are tossups, but I see six wins, with the cumulative projection concurring but with a slightly greater likelihood of going 7-5 than 5-7. The toughest games are Nebraska, Illinois, and Ball State, while Northern Illinois, Tennessee Tech, and Ohio are the only gimmes, if they can even be counted as such. The MAC is up for grabs this year, and Western Michigan can be in the mix if the ball bounces their way this season, unlike the last.

83. Buffalo Bulls

2007 Results:    Record: 5-7    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #94    Success: #98    Combined: #94
Turner Gill has the Bulls on the verge of an amazing turnaround, going from 1-10 to a potential winning season in just three years.
Offense (10 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #95    Adj. Rush Yards: #110    Adj. Pass Yards: #71
The '07 version of this offense couldn't be described as a juggernaut, but they had their strong points: quarterback Drew Willy, who completed 68% for 2,500 yards and 15 TDs against 6 INTs; 1,000 yard rusher James Starks (12 TDs); and a deep receiver corps. All of the above return, plus four-fifths of the line as well as about 18 reserves from last season's 2nd and 3rd string, so the Bull offense is loaded for bear.
Defense (8 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #86    Adj. Rush Def: #103    Adj. Pass Def: #73
The defense is almost as well off as the offense, the exception being the linebacker corps, where stars Larry Hutchinson and Kareem Byrom are missing. Head coach Gill commented that the Bulls are "still searching" at linebacker, and may start a true freshman at one post. But the front four is sturdy with three starters back, and the secondary is filled to the brim, with the equivalent of five starters at four positions including leading tackler Davonte Shannon at strong safety. Overall much improvement is expected on this side of the ball as well.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Punter Ben Woods is gone; his replacement will probably be true freshman Peter Fardon. Kicker A.J. Principe is back; he was excellent from inside 40 yards, but only 2 of 7 from 40+.
Recruiting: You might think that a (relatively) high profile coach like Turner Gill would be building the Buffalo program due to recruiting, but that's not the case. The Bulls are still pretty close to the bottom in terms of recruiting class profile, and in fact the two classes have been in the bottom ten in the nation. But Gill is not afraid to play freshmen; this season linebacker Obi Ezemma and punter Fardon will likely start, and despite the team's overall depth, the projected 2nd string has several true and redshirt freshmen listed.

Buffalo 2008 schedule & forecast
8/28	Thu	vs.	Texas-El Paso	59%	W
9/6	Sat	@	Pittsburgh	27%	L
9/13	Sat	vs.	*Temple	54%	W
9/20	Sat	@	Missouri	13%	L
9/27	Sat	@	*Central Michigan	43%	L
10/11	Sat	vs.	*Western Michigan	53%	W
10/18	Sat	vs.	Army	71%	W
10/28	Tue	@	*Ohio	52%	W
11/4	Tue	vs.	*Miami (Ohio)	53%	W
11/13	Thu	@	*Akron	52%	W
11/21	Fri	@	*Bowling Green	47%	L
11/28	Fri	vs.	*Kent State	60%	W
Favored: 8-4  Projected: 6-6

2008 Season Outlook Gill went 2-10 his first season, and 5-7 the second. Many expect a winning season as a follow-up.

2007 started off slow, at 1-4, but that was with against BCS opponents and MAC power Ball State. They won three games of their next four, missing their chance to beat a major-conference foe by falling 20-12 to Syracuse, and lost to Miami of Ohio and Bowling Green before finishing the season with an overtime win at Kent State.

This year's schedule includes games at Pitt and Missouri, which may be interesting; how many games last season did a small school hang on just a bit too long? Even counting those as sure losses, the Bulls have UTEP and Army to fall back on. MAC play is going to be close and tough almost every game, but I have them favored in six, going 8-4 overall, which would be a huge success for the team. This projection includes the Bulls winning three tight games in a row against Ohio teams, and given the uncertainty of declaring a sure winner for many of these contests, the cumulative projection has Buffalo at 6-6. Is 6-6 a "winning season?" For the Bulls, sure—bowl eligibility would be a victory. But I think that's the low end of what the team could do. I think they'll manage an outright, undeniable winning season by getting seven wins.

84. Temple Owls

2007 Results:    Record: 4-8    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #113    Success: #106    Combined: #113
Temple wasn't as good as their 4-8 record last season, but they're back—damn near all of them—to try to do even better in 2008. The team loses just two lettermen out of 55.
Offense (10 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #119    Adj. Rush Yards: #119    Adj. Pass Yards: #85
Exactly how many starters do the Owls return? Figuring it out is more of an art than a science. Technically they lose only fullback Josh Bundy, who started six games in that set; but several players switch position and have no starts at their new job. Marquis Liverpool moves from wide receiver to running back; Jason Harper the same thing, other direction; and Daryl Robinson moves from RB to DB. So technically they lose their two top backs but after finishing ahead of only Hawaii in real rushing yards it shouldn't count against them. You can argue for 11, or get stricter and say 9, but I think rounding to 10 provides a representative number. Athlon lists 8, which is odd since only 2 players are gone from the entire team, so saying three offensive starters are missing doesn't work for me.
Defense (11 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #80    Adj. Rush Def: #79    Adj. Pass Def: #70
The defense is even better off, if possible, than the offense, losing only one reserve. Put another way: all of their top 20 tacklers from last season are back. The defense was the bigger factor in their success last season (in all four wins, the offense didn't top 24 points) and should be much stronger in '08.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Both punter and kicker return, of course, though neither was spectacular last year. Punter Jeff Wathne averaged under 40 yards a kick and netted only 32, while kicker Jake Brownell was shaky beyond 30 yards.
Recruiting: Temple's recruiting under Al Golden has been pretty good for the MAC, and both of their last two classes rank near the top 75. With such a ridiculous amount of experience returning, I can't see how the 2008 class will find a place to contribute, but several redshirt frosh from '07 join the fray, especially on 2nd string offense.

Temple 2008 schedule & forecast
8/29	Fri	@	Army	64%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	Connecticut	32%	L
9/13	Sat	@	*Buffalo	46%	L
9/20	Sat	@	Penn State	21%	L
9/27	Sat	vs.	*Western Michigan	52%	W
10/4	Sat	@	*Miami (Ohio)	46%	L
10/11	Sat	@	*Central Michigan	43%	L
10/21	Tue	vs.	*Ohio	59%	W
11/1	Sat	@	Navy	48%	L
11/12	Wed	@	*Kent State	52%	W
11/22	Sat	vs.	*Eastern Michigan	57%	W
11/28	Fri	vs.	*Akron	59%	W
Favored: 6-6  Projected: 6-6

2008 Season Outlook Last year's 4-8 record was celebrated as a huge improvement. And it was, given that the last time the Owls won four games was 2002, and it matched the total of the last three seasons combined. And compared to the last two, terrible years, there was dramatic improvement.

It started out bad as ever, 0-5. But the games were competitive; unlike the two prior years there were no shutouts, and the most scored on them was 45, not 62 or 70. And they played Connecticut close, which didn't seem quite so impressive at the time, but was.

Temple then got three wins in a row: Northern Illinois by 1, Akron by 4, Miami (OH) by 7. Their last win, over Kent State, was by a respectable 10 point margin, and though along the way they were blanked by Penn State and lost the finale to Western Michigan 16-3, things were looking up.

And still are. The Owls should win six games and be bowl eligible this year. Lots of close games here, so it could be more or less, but they will match their '07 record at least. Unfortunately Temple plays seven road games this season, and still have UConn and Penn State on the schedule, and are facing a MAC conference that is the most improved in the country. But they'll do fine nonetheless. Watch the UConn game as a litmus test: they could get blown out, but they may get an upset playing at home; if they even stick close like last year people will talk about how UConn was a one-hit wonder last year, not about Temple's legitimacy. But you'll know.

85. Bowling Green Falcons

2007 Results:    Record: 8-5    Bowl: Lost 63-7 to Tulsa (GMAC bowl)    Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #89    Success: #75    Combined: #89
The Falcons do get better this year, returning lots of talent. But last season's record was somewhat misleading, and with so many MAC foes improving more than them, especially with the defense nicked by extracurricular issues, can they really manage another eight-win season?
Offense (8 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #76   Adj. Rush Yards: #112    Adj. Pass Yards: #34
Tyler Sheehan is back and so are his receivers. That's the best news for Bowling Green fans heading into 2008. Sheehan threw for 3,264 yards, completing 64% for 23 TDs against 11 INTs. Not quite Heisman numbers, but on this team he was the star. Freddie Barnes easily led the receiver corps in catches, yardage (nearly 1,000) and TDs (9). Though the running game is limited, the best backs are back. The only concern is the O-line losing three full-time starters including center Kory Lichtensteiger; this could be the weak link that prevents some of the progress the offense is hoping for.
Defense (8 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #103    Adj. Rush Def: #114    Adj. Pass Def: #56
The team's poor rushing defense was set to get a boost from a wealth of returning talent on the front four, but then Orlando Barrow and Jacob Hardwick got in trouble with the law and were kicked off the team. Thus the weakest link in the defense looks to be just as exploitable this season. Though leading tacklers Erique Dozier and John Haneline anchor a solid linebacker unit, it could have been great without the loss of Glen Staley to academics. Given all of this, the secondary looks like the prize on this side of the ball, with four starters in place; their only unexpected offseason loss was projected 2nd-stringer Tarell Lewis, who violated a team rule and was dismissed.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Both kicker Sinisa Vrvilo and punter Nick Iovinelli return for the Falcons. Vrvilo is excellent to about 45 yards while Iovinelli averaged under 40 per kick.
Recruiting: Even for the MAC, Bowling Green is no recruiting machine. Gregg Brandon is in his sixth year as head coach and the last two classes were in the bottom 25 nationally. It's no wonder that the 2-deep is full of seniors, juniors, and redshirt sophomores, though redshirt frosh Ben Bojicic may start at center.

Bowling Green 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	@	Pittsburgh	26%	L
9/6	Sat	vs.	Minnesota	52%	W
9/13	Sat	@	Boise State	30%	L
9/27	Sat	@	Wyoming	44%	L
10/4	Sat	vs.	*Eastern Michigan	57%	W
10/11	Sat	@	*Akron	52%	W
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Miami (Ohio)	53%	W
10/25	Sat	@	*Northern Illinois	55%	W
11/1	Sat	vs.	*Kent State	59%	W
11/8	Sat	@	*Ohio	52%	W
11/21	Fri	vs.	*Buffalo	53%	W
11/28	Fri	@	*Toledo	48%	L
Favored: 8-4  Projected: 6-6

2008 Season Outlook Bowling Green started 3-1, beating Temple, Big Ten doormat Minnesota, and provisional I-A Western Kentucky. They followed by losing 3 of 4, giving up 55 to B.C. and 47 to Miami OH. They finished the year strong, with four wins, topping 31 points each time out.

The season ended on a low note with a 63-7 thrashing in the GMAC Bowl by Tulsa. In all, the Falcons beat one team with a winning record, and that team (Western Kentucky) was 1-5 against I-A schools. With 8 starters back on each side of the ball fans are expecting a lot, probably too much; last year's tally was very misleading. 

But there is some good news from the scheduling gods. Pitt and Boise make a daunting pre-conference slate, but at home B.G. may shock Minnesota again. The Falcons have only five home games, but most of them are against their slightly tougher conference opponents. In this year's wide-open MAC, every win helps, and Bowling Green will be small favorites in seven conference games in a row. The tightness of these odds adds up to a cumulative 6-6 projection, so repeating last season's record will be tough, but another winning season and bowl bid look likely.

College Football 2008 Pre-season 120: #86-90 - NC State is ACC's cellar dweller

SportsRatings is ranking all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August until the season begins. These rankings are meant to reflect how good the teams might be in 2008 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for each team, and two projected records are given: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and another cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty in the predictions. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. (Schedule listings adapted from James Howell's site)

This installment covers teams from #86 to #90. To see the full list, click here.

86. Marshall Thundering Herd

2007 Results:    Record: 3-9    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #90    Success: #96    Combined: #90
The Thundering Herd will be a better team than last year, but it won't be a return to their '90s glory days.
Offense (8 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #94   Adj. Rush Yards: #78    Adj. Pass Yards: #49
Marshall will miss Bernard Morris, their starting quarterback and 2nd leading ground-gainer from last year. He threw for over 3,000 yards while no backup threw a touchdown pass in '07. Replacing him will likely be redshirt freshman Mark Cann, and helping Cann adjust will be three top wide receivers, plus TE Cody Slate, and RB Darius Marshall. Add 3/5 of the line and you have an experienced returning offense that makes up for its few key losses.
Defense (8 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #83    Adj. Rush Def: #82    Adj. Pass Def: #98
The defense should see improvement across the board, but especially in pass defense where they need it most. The secondary had every key player back until corner J.J. Johnson was kicked off the team. Still, led by leading tackler CJ Spillman, they have enough depth to compensate. The front seven should improve against the run as five starters return if you count Albert McClelland, their best defensive player from '06. McClelland is shifting to a linebacker position while Ian Hoskins has moved to the line.
Kicking Game (0 RS): Punter/kicker Anthony Binswanger is gone, necessitating two replacements. Binswanger was an average punter and as kicker he was great inside the 40 (12-12) but poor beyond (1-6). Craig Ratanamorn, from the Marshall soccer team, is listed at kicker and may be the punter as well, or that could go to sophomore Cody Ochoa or true freshman Kase Whitehead.
Recruiting: Marshall's 2007 class wasn't rated in the top 50 nationally, but they're getting good use out of it. In addition to Cann, other redshirt freshmen may fill holes throughout the offensive line and defense. The 2008 class has several talented JUCO transfers that may help immediately.

Marshall 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Illinois State	62%	W
9/6	Sat	@	Wisconsin	26%	L
9/13	Sat	vs.	*Memphis	55%	W
9/20	Sat	@	*Southern Miss	42%	L
9/27	Sat	@	West Virginia	12%	L
10/3	Fri	vs.	Cincinnati	30%	L
10/18	Sat	@	*UAB	56%	W
10/28	Tue	vs.	*Houston	50%	W
11/8	Sat	@	*East Carolina	34%	L
11/15	Sat	vs.	*Central Florida	42%	L
11/22	Sat	@	*Rice	52%	W
11/29	Sat	vs.	*Tulsa	41%	L
Favored: 5-7   Projected: 5-7

2008 Season Outlook Last year was a dud for a team that not long ago dominated in conference play and went undefeated in 1999. Marshall was in decline before moving to Conference USA, but their 3-9 finish was their worse since moving from Division I-AA in 1997.

The Herd lost their first seven games of 2007, even falling to I-AA New Hampshire. They finished strong with three wins in the final five games to stay out of the CUSA basement.

That strong finish—coupled with all the returning talent—bodes well for 2008. I've got them favored in five games, and adding up the odds says the same thing. There are a few games (Wisconsin, West VA, Cincinnati) that they don't have much hope in, but a win vs. Southern Miss, UCF, or Tulsa could put them over the top to bowl eligibility, but that may have to wait until 2009 for this young team.

87. Air Force Falcons

2007 Results:    Record: 9-4    Bowl: L to Cal 42-36 (Armed Services Bowl)    Poll finish: #37 AP 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #49    Success: #45    Combined: #48
This year isn't good for the service academies. Not only does Army rate 120 out of 120 teams, but Navy fell to #91. Air Force falls the farthest of all of them, from a top 50 team to #87, due to extensive personnel losses. Second year coach Troy Calhoun proved himself last year, and he'd really convince people with a repeat bowl appearance this season.
Offense (3 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #47   Adj. Rush Yards: #3    Adj. Pass Yards: #119
The losses are profound on offense: QB Shaun Carney (1,491 passing, 9 TDs, 637 rushing, 6 TDs) and  Z-back Chad Hall (1,478 yd rushing, 15 TDs, 524 receiving, 1 TD) accounted for a huge amount of the Falcon offense. The run, of course, is the key to Air Force's offense, and the top six ground-gainers are missing in '08. Three starting lineman have to be replaced as well. Hall's heir apparent, Ty Paffett, may not be ready for the first game of the season after back surgery.
Defense (5 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #47    Adj. Rush Def: #40    Adj. Pass Def: #100
The most solid area of the team is the line, where three starters return in a 3-4 set. Even here there is potential trouble, as nose guard Jared Martin had ACL/MCL surgery in the spring. Only one of four linebackers returns, and Chris Thomas (2nd leading tackler in '08) is the sole starter back in a secondary that wasn't very good to begin with. In all, four of the top five Falcon tacklers have moved on.
Kicking Game ('2' RS): The Falcons really only return one starter here, but he did double duty, and pretty well: punter/kicker Ryan Harrison averaged 42.9 yards a boot, and made 19 of 27 field goals including 3 of 4 from 50+. He may very well be the most important returning player on the team.
Recruiting: Calhoun's second recruiting class was considerably better than his first in '07. But as Air Force frosh normally play on the junior varsity team, the '07 class has more bearing on results for this season. Few sophomores are listed in the starting lineup, but eight 2nd-string offensive players are sophs; Reggie Rembert fielded kicks as a freshman and will start at cornerback this season. This is a very young team and if injuries hit Calhoun will be playing some green players.

Air Force 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Southern Utah	74%	W
9/6	Sat	@	*Wyoming	43%	L
9/13	Sat	@	Houston	45%	L
9/20	Sat	vs.	*Utah	30%	L
10/4	Sat	vs.	Navy	54%	W
10/11	Sat	@	*San Diego State	50%	L
10/18	Sat	@	*Nevada-Las Vegas	47%	L
10/23	Thu	vs.	*New Mexico	49%	L
11/1	Sat	@	Army	63%	W
11/8	Sat	vs.	*Colorado State	55%	W
11/15	Sat	vs.	*Brigham Young	31%	L
11/22	Sat	@	*Texas Christian	32%	L
Favored: 4-8  Projected: 6-6

2008 Season Outlook Last year was very good to Troy Calhoun as he turned the team around from a losing 2006. They lost to Navy, but they beat Army and Notre Dame and won six out of seven to finish the regular season. They took a big lead on Cal in the Armed Forces bowl but Carney was hurt and the Bears came roaring back and won. No one was disappointed, however, in their 2007 effort.

At first glance the 2008 campaign looks like a return to 2006. Though they pick the right Div I-AA team to face, only the other troubled service academy teams and Colorado State look like victims this year. But noting the several tossups—especially San Diego State, New Mexico, UNLV and maybe Houston—and the Falcons could claw their way back to 6-6 and possibly into a bowl game, despite being one of the few teams in the country to lose more lettermen than they retain. Anything beyond six wins is more evidence that Troy Calhoun is a great coach.

88. Nevada-Las Vegas Rebels

2007 Results:    Record: 2-10    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #92    Success: #103    Combined: #92
Recently deemed an NCAA-low 1000-1 shot to win the national championship, the Rebels have their sights set a little lower, which is good since they're not significantly better than they were last season when they finished at the bottom of the Mountain West.
Offense (9 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #106    Adj. Rush Yards: #68    Adj. Pass Yards: #57
Perhaps I spoke too soon: the offense will be significantly better in '08. With QB duo Travis Dixon and Omar Clayton back, they automatically have their 2nd and 3rd best rushers back too. And #1 Frank Summers returns as well, along with the top three receivers. Four starters return on the huge Rebel O-line. If they do nothing more than cut the turnovers it should allow their yardage gains to translate better into points.
Defense (5 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #71    Adj. Rush Def: #78    Adj. Pass Def: #12
The defensive line deserves a paragraph of their own. First off, 25-year-old tackle Jacob Hales nearly quit football in the off-season, then came back to dominate in the spring. Second, the other starters names are Heivaha Mafi, Malo Taumua, and Thor Pili. Even if they still can't stop the run, they'll win any all-name D-line contest. Passing D was the strength of this unit last year; though they gave up quite a few yards, compared to the normal averages for their Mountain West foes, they were downright stingy. Two starters return in the secondary, but two linebackers, including leading tackler Beau Bell, are gone.
Kicking Game (0 RS): The Rebels have two good kickers to replace in punter Brian Pachecho and placekicker Sergio Aguayo.
Recruiting: UNLV's last two classes ranked in the 90s nationally; that fact, along with the team's overall depth this year, is why only a few redshirt freshmen show up in the two-deep this season, though expected starter Mafi is a JUCO transfer.

UNLV 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Utah State	59%	W
9/6	Sat	@	*Utah	24%	L
9/13	Sat	@	Arizona State	22%	L
9/20	Sat	vs.	Iowa State	55%	W
9/27	Sat	vs.	Nevada	51%	W
10/4	Sat	@	*Colorado State	48%	L
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Air Force	54%	W
10/25	Sat	@	*Brigham Young	24%	L
11/1	Sat	vs.	*Texas Christian	39%	L
11/8	Sat	vs.	*New Mexico	49%	L
11/15	Sat	vs.	*Wyoming	51%	L
11/22	Sat	@	*San Diego State	49%	L
Favored: 5-7  Projected: 5-7

2008 Season Outlook A win over Utah State—and an inexplicable 27-0 crushing of Utah—were the only highlights of a season that ended with eight straight losses.

The Rebels had a tough schedule last season, playing Wisconsin and Hawaii. They have ASU this year but also Iowa State, at home. And though Utah will probably exact revenge, Utah State looks like another win, which would match last year's total in the first four games.

Avoiding another eight-game slide should be easy. The next three games are all winnable, as are the last three. Though I have the final three games as very close, those six tossup games taken together should yield three wins, giving the Rebels a 5-win season. With a little luck, they could be bowl-eligible. Either way, it looks like last season was a fluke—they weren't really as bad as all that. They aren't amazingly improved overall this season, but it might look like it when all is said and done.

89. Baylor Bears

2007 Results:    Record: 3-9    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #101    Success: #102    Combined: #101
The Bears make a pretty sizeable leap up the charts...they're no longer the worst team in the Big Twelve, but they're still last place in the South division.
Offense (9 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #104   Adj. Rush Yards: #109    Adj. Pass Yards: #32
Blake Szymanski piled up almost 3,000 yards last season, completing 57% and throwing 22 TDs passes, as well as 18 interceptions. The latter has led most people to posit him demoted by new head coach Art Briles to 3rd string this year, behind Miami insta-transfer Kirby Freeman and super frosh Robert Griffin. I'd have to go with Szymanski here. There's plenty of time to bring Griffen up, and Freeman rarely looked good at Miami. Szymanski was slowed by injury last season, can run in a pinch, and as for interceptions, his backups' TD/INT ratio last year was 1 to 9, suggesting that maybe not all of those turnovers were his fault. And the supporting cast will improve: four starters return on the line, and the three top receivers from last year including TE/IR Justin Akers are back.
Defense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #89    Adj. Rush Def: #89    Adj. Pass Def: #68
The rushing defense needs the most improvement, and it should get better with three starters—Jason Lamb, Vincent Rhodes, and Trey Bryant—back up front. Only one starting linebacker returns but they're deep at the position and Joe Pawelek may be the best player on the defense. In the secondary they must replace the corners but both safeties return including leading tackler Jordan Lake. All of this leaves a few holes in the defense, but roughly 20 members of the 2nd and 3rd units return as well.
Kicking Game (1.5 RS): Two players shared placekicking duties last season and although Shea Brewster returns, he may be replaced by freshman Ben Parks after making just 3 of 8 last season. Punter Derek Epperson's job is more secure after averaging nearly 40 yards a punt (though only 31 net).
Recruiting: Both of the latest classes ranked in the 50s nationally. With Briles coming in from Houston, those numbers may get better beyond this transition year. For now, he's shown a willingness to consider using members of the 2008 class (e.g., Griffin and Parks) where there is a need.

Baylor 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Wake Forest	35%	L
9/6	Sat	vs.	Northwestern State	73%	W
9/13	Sat	vs.	Washington State	45%	L
9/19	Fri	@	Connecticut	23%	L
10/4	Sat	vs.	*Oklahoma	17%	L
10/11	Sat	vs.	*Iowa State	55%	W
10/18	Sat	@	*Oklahoma State	28%	L
10/25	Sat	@	*Nebraska	33%	L
11/1	Sat	vs.	*Missouri	19%	L
11/8	Sat	@	*Texas	20%	L
11/15	Sat	vs.	*Texas A&M	38%	L
11/29	Sat	@	*Texas Tech	10%	L
Favored: 2-10  Projected: 4-8

2008 Season Outlook To slightly rearrange a movie title: The bad, the good, and the ugly. That was Baylor's 2007 in a nutshell.

The bad was a 27-0 drubbing at the hands of TCU in the opener. The good was the subsequent three-game winning streak, where the Bears scored 42, 34, and 34 points to beat Rice, Texas State, and Buffalo. The ugly was finishing the season with an eight game skid, while scoring 14 or fewer points in six of those games and giving up 50+ thrice.

Baylor is better than that this year. Unfortunately, the Big 12 is better as well. They shouldn't go winless in conference play, as they get Iowa State at home, but there aren't many other possibilities after that. Playing Wake Forest and Connecticut in the pre-season doesn't help matters. Some closer games and chances for upsets project a 4-8 year, but looking at the schedule I'd guess a repeat of last season's 3-9 finish is in the cards.

90. North Carolina State Wolfpack

2007 Results:    Record: 5-7    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #77    Success: #66    Combined: #76
A dearth of returning talent dooms the Wolfpack to the ACC cellar, but a surprisingly good recruiting class lessens the blow for the future.
Offense (5 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #87    Adj. Rush Yards: #108    Adj. Pass Yards: #43
The Pack return both quarterbacks that started games last season, Daniel Evans passing for 2,000 yards and 12TDs and 13 INTs, Harrison Beck adding 903 and 9 INT for his one touchdown. Looking for improvement coach Tom O'Brien has opened the job up to all comers and no decision has been made yet. NC State couldn't run the ball very well last season but every back who took a handoff returns, including two who were injured during the course of the '07 campaign. Three starters are back on the line and while NC State loses all of their four top receivers (Donald Bowers is gone for the year with a back injury), the offensive situation isn't as bad as 5 returning starters would imply—as long as the QB situation gets worked out.
Defense (4 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #65    Adj. Rush Def: #93    Adj. Pass Def: #43
The Pack clearly has some trouble spots on D. The front four return two starters, and they are two of their best players in Willie Young and Alan-Michael Cash. They're set at cornerback, but have to replace both safeties. The real concern is losing three linebackers, including their top two tacklers. The Pack need to find a way to consistently stop the run this year.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Bradley Pierson returns at punter, but reliable kicker Steven Hauschka is gone. Sophomore Josh Czajkowski is slated to take over.
Recruiting: The 2007 class didn't rank in the top 50, but in his 2nd year O'Brien had great success, with the 2008 class ranking in the top 30 in the nation. A slew of 2nd stringers are redshirt freshman from the '07 class, and while most of '08 will redshirt, Mike Glennon (ranked #5 among QBs coming out of high school) might battle Russell Wilson ('07 class) for the starting QB job.

NC State 2008 schedule & forecast
8/28	Thu	@	South Carolina	20%	L
9/6	Sat	vs.	William & Mary	65%	W
9/13	Sat	@	*Clemson	16%	L
9/20	Sat	vs.	East Carolina	42%	L
9/27	Sat	vs.	South Florida	16%	L
10/4	Sat	vs.	*Boston College	39%	L
10/16	Thu	vs.	*Florida State	34%	L
10/25	Sat	@	*Maryland	25%	L
11/8	Sat	@	*Duke	41%	L
11/15	Sat	vs.	*Wake Forest	35%	L
11/22	Sat	@	*North Carolina	29%	L
11/29	Sat	vs.	*Miami (Florida)	48%	L
Favored: 1-11  Projected: 4-8

2008 Season Outlook N.C.State had a very tough opening schedule in 2007. UCF, Boston College, Clemson, Louisville, and FSU were all losses draped around a win over I-AA Wofford.

They finally got on track against East Carolina, then upset Virginia and Miami, and beat North Carolina. Suddenly at 5-5, bowl eligibility was a possibility. But after losing to Wake Forest they ended on a sour note, 37-0, to Maryland (this was the infamous "giving him the business" game).

This year's schedule is just as bad or worse, with USF and South Carolina instead of B.C. and Louisville, and I-AA William & Mary the only "assured" win. While there are some close games that should raise their record beyond 1-11, it doesn't appear the Pack will be able to match last season's total. The future may look bright, but the present looks strictly pedestrian.