This week the Patriots host Pittsburgh's #1 defense, and the Dolphins travel to Buffalo. Could this be the week both lose the "0" in their record?
For the Pats, it's been a rough last few weeks, where they almost lost two games. The first, a 31-28 squeaker against Philadelphia, seemed like the odds catching up to them; not all games can be blowouts, and Philly was (and still is) much better than their record. But last week's very, very close call against Baltimore revealed a vulnerable team. In all, 3 of the Pats' last 4 wins have been by 4 points or less. That's after winning their first eight games by over 25 points on average. Are the Pats losing steam, and headed for a fall, maybe even this week?
The Dolphins, on the other hand, have been on the wrong side of the close games—they've lost six games by a field goal. SIX. This implies that they are much better than their record; with a little luck they're 6-6 and still in the playoff hunt. But the grind of a winless season may be taking its toll. Last week's game against the Jets was one of their best opportunities for a win, and it wasn't even close with New York smothering them 40-13 in Miami. Does this mean they might squander their remaining opportunities, such as this week at Buffalo?
Patriots vs. Steelers: The Steelers have the best defense in the league. You have to figure that if Philadelphia and Baltimore can slow down New Enland, so can the Steelers. The question is whether their offense can put up enough points. But more important than any of this is psychology.
A perfect record tends to instill confidence and overconfidence; one keeps a team winning, the other makes it vulnerable to losing. The 13th game of a season is a perfect time for laziness and overconfidence to set in: a 12-0 team has proven itself time and again, but it's not quite at the home stretch of going undefeated. The 1985 Chicago Bears lost their only game on the 13th week.
To lose, the Patriots probably have to be somewhat overconfident. The last two weeks—especially last week—should have given them a wake-up call. So Pittsburgh can't really count on that. All other things being equal, the Steelers have about a 25% chance of upsetting the Patriots.
Dolphins vs. Buffalo: The Dolphins are not, as some have argued recently, the worst team in NFL history. Unless by "worst" you mean, "the best team that's lost six games by a field goal." They might be the unluckiest team ever. And their mental state can't be very good going into Buffalo. But they are roughly as good as the Bills, as their 13-10 loss in Miami showed. It's going to be difficult for them to believe they can pull off the road win, but they can—if they can keep their hopes up and, for a change, have a little luck come their way instead of to their opponent. Miami has almost a 50/50 shot at winning; if they get blown out in this game, it's a sure sign that they've given up.
Which brings us to the question: can they win a game over the rest of the season? And for that matter, will the Pats go undefeated this year? I visited these topics a month ago, so it's time for an update, using the pairwise-comparison method.
First, New England's remaining schedule:
Team odds NE win
Pittsburgh 77.77%
New York Jets 94.44%
Miami 97.22%
at New York Giants 88.88%
Total odds of 16-0 63.48%
Amazingly, the Patriots show lower odds now, at 12-0, than they did at 9-0. Then, their odds were a staggering 74.5%. At that point they hadn't shown any weakness, and both the Jets and Miami games registered a 100% chance of success. Now, each game is tagged as riskier to them than before. Adding in the (projected) playoff opponents:
Team odds NE win
San Diego 82.63%
Indianapolis 74.30%
Dallas 70.83%
Total odds of 19-0 27.60%
Overall the Pats show a much-reduced chance of going 19-0 as well, from the previous near-50% to just over 25%. Still, they will be heavily favored in each individual game as long as their season lasts.
The Dolphins were earlier projected to finish 3-13; to do so now, they'd have to go 3-1, which isn't likely at this point. But they still have a few good chances to win left on their schedule.
Opponent % Dolphins win
at Buffalo 45.83%
Baltimore 54.86%
at New England 2.77%
Cincinnati 39.58%
Favored: 1-3 (1-15)
Projected: 1-3 (1-15)
Odds of winning 1+ games: 85.6%
A month ago, with eight games remaining, the Dolphins had a 99.5% chance of winning at least one game. With four of those opportunities gone, that chance is down to 85.6%—still very good. But they lost two games they were favored to win, and another one of those favored games has since turned into a projected loss. Instead of being projected at 3-13, they figure to finish 1-15. Better than 0-16, but without much margin for error if they want to a winless year. And the Dolphins have been full of error this season.
On the bright side, 3 of the 4 remaining games are still winnable. Aside from the home game vs. Baltimore, the final game against Cincinnati would be a great last chance if necessary at that time. If the Dolphins get just one win—today, for example, against Buffalo—it could take the proverbial monkey off their back and they might cruise to 2 or 3 wins.
The game at New England even shows a small chance for a win, whereas before the possibility was discounted. That, of course, would be the ultimate irony: the 0-13 team beating the 13-0 team, both zeroes being eliminated in one swoop. But let's be realistic, the Dolphins aren't going to win at New England. After all, this isn't college football, right?
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