Taking a look at the stats of the most prominent quarterbacks of 2007 in college football, it's clear that Florida's Tim Tebow is Quarterback of the Year. There was no better player at quarterback this season if all aspects of the game are counted; and even if only passing is considered, in many measures he still comes up 1st.
I compiled a list of ten of the best quarterbacks to get a statistical range; here in reverse alphabetical order:
Andre Woodson (295 of 468 [63.0%] 3,351 yards; 36 TD 10 INT; -167 rush yds, 3 TD)
Pat White (134 of 197 [68.0%] 1,548 yards; 12 TD 4 INT; 1,185 rush yds, 14 TD)
Tim Tebow (217 of 317 [68.5%] 3,132 yards; 29 TD 6 INT; 838 rush yds, 22 TD)
Matt Ryan (366 of 607 [60.3%] 4,258 yards; 28 TD 18 INT; 26 rush yds, 2 TD)
Todd Reesing (256 of 409 [62.6%] 3,259 yards; 32 TD 6 INT; 203 rush yds, 2 TD)
Graham Harrell (468 of 644 [72.7%] 5,298 yards; 45 TD 14 INT; 12 rush yds, 4 TD)
Dennis Dixon (172 of 254 [67.7%] 2,136 yards; 20TD 4 INT; 583 rush yds, 9 TD)
Chase Daniel (372 of 534 [69.7%] 4,170 yards; 33 TD 10 INT; 284 rush yds, 4 TD)
Colt Brennan (337 of 472 [71.4%] 4,174 yards; 38 TD 14 INT; 65 rush yds, 8 TD)
Sam Bradford (216 of 308 [70.1%] 2,879 yards; 34 TD 7 INT; 8 rush yds, 0 TD)
One-by-one, here are the contenders, contrasted with Tebow:
Andre Woodson (295 of 468 [63.0%] 3,351 yards; 36 TD 10 INT; -167 rush yds, 3 TD)
Woodson was considered the Heisman front-runner at one time, and he had Kentucky winning games in the 1st half of the season. But his ending numbers aren't staggering, with only 219 more passing yards than Tebow on 151 extra attempts. Part of the reason for his inefficiency may be lack of running ability: Woodson is the only one of the ten to have negative yardage. With so many great running quarterbacks out there these days, a non-running QB has to have huge passing numbers to be viable.
Pat White (134 of 197 [68.0%] 1,548 yards; 12 TD 4 INT; 1,185 rush yds, 14 TD)
Speaking of running quarterbacks, White is the only QB better at rushing that Tebow, with over 1,000 yards for the season and 14 TDs. White's passing numbers, however, are slight, less than 1/2 of Tebow's total yardage.
Matt Ryan (366 of 607 [60.3%] 4,258 yards; 28 TD 18 INT; 26 rush yds, 2 TD)
Ryan might be the most overrated quarterback of the year. He found ways to win, which was why he was another of the one-week leaders in the Heisman race, but as a QB his numbers didn't refect any above-the-norm talent. Only 57th in passing efficiency, Ryan had 18 interceptions on the year, and completed barely over 60% of his passes.
Todd Reesing (256 of 409 [62.6%] 3,259 yards; 32 TD 6 INT; 203 rush yds, 2 TD)
Reesing, meanwhile, might be the most overlooked, at least until the last few weeks of the season. His TD/INT ratio is one of the few better than Tebow's. Their yardages are roughly the same. Reesing's completion percentage was a lot lower, and the competition he faced was not as strong overall as Tebow's. As a passer he's close, arguable even, with Tebow, but his 2 rushing TD's compared to Tebow's 22 decisively breaks any tie.
Graham Harrell (468 of 644 [72.7%] 5,298 yards; 45 TD 14 INT; 12 rush yds, 4 TD)
Graham Harrell passed for a whole mile of yards, literally. He had the most TD passes of anyone in the nation, as well. But he accomplished this in 644 attempts. What if his attempts, and those of the other quarterbacks, were normalized? How would they stack up?
The QBs on the list averaged 421 attempt, so I multiplied yards by 421/attempts and this was the result:
player old rank #att raw yds adj. yards
Harrell ranks in the middle of the pack after accounting for Texas Tech's pass-happy offense. Tebow, on the other hand, rises to the top. Sam Bradford and Dennis Dixon also fare well, while Andre Woodson, Chase Daniel and Matt Ryan fall. Interestingly, Colt Brennan remains #3.
Of course this type of correction isn't indicative of exactly what would happen if these players had more or fewer attempts, as there are too many factors involved to simply scale up/down in this manner. But it's undeniable that some QBs get their stats from sheer volume of attempts, and from every indication, Graham Harrell fits the bill. His completion percentage is admirable for throwing so many passes, and he's definitely one of the best this year, but it's hard to argue that he is *the* best by pointing to his yardage stats.
Dennis Dixon (172 of 254 [67.7%] 2,136 yards; 20TD 4 INT; 583 rush yds, 9 TD)
Dixon, I've already stated, is who I consider the year's MVP. If he hadn't been hurt, he would have won the Heisman trophy. But I don't think he was the best overall quarterback.
He and Tebow were very close in quality during the season, but Tebow finishes just in front of Dixon, all things considered. Dixon threw only 4 interceptions to Tebow's 6, but Tebow threw 12 more TDs. Dixon ran for 583 yards and 9 TDs, Tebow 838 and 22. Tebow passed for almost 1,000 yards more than Dixon. In each stat area, Tebow is slightly or greatly ahead. Part of this was because Dixon got hurt; but that must be considered. If a player plays only 3 games, or 6, he's not likely to win awards, so every absence has to be factored in.
Chase Daniel (372 of 534 [69.7%] 4,170 yards; 33 TD 10 INT; 284 rush yds, 4 TD)
Daniel was one of the year's top quarterbacks, and most people rank him at the top or very close of their first-string list. He may be a better pure passer than Tebow, but he required over 200 extra attempts to achieve an additional 1,000 yards. He had 4 more touchdowns, but also 4 additional interceptions. Add in Tebow's rushing and it isn't a contest.
Colt Brennan (337 of 472 [71.4%] 4,174 yards; 38 TD 14 INT; 65 rush yds, 8 TD)
Brennan, like Daniel, is a great passer who took many more throws than Tebow. It can be argued that, had Tebow passed as much, his efficiency might have suffered. But certainly if Brennan threw less, his numbers would have been smaller. Mainly, though, Brennan's problem this year was consistency. He had two games with 4 or more interceptions; against better teams, those would have been losses, and Hawaii wouldn't be close to a BCS bowl.
Sam Bradford (216 of 308 [70.1%] 2,879 yards; 34 TD 7 INT; 8 rush yds, 0 TD)
The freshman Bradford was one of the few quarterbacks with numbers as good as the sophomore Tebow. He had 34 TDs against only 7 INTs; his yards per pass were comparable to Tebow's; and he was the only quarterback in the nation to rate higher in passing efficiency than Tebow. All in all, in terms of passing, he was basically Tebow's equal. His other contributions, or lack thereof, show up in his rushing yards: 8. Tebow had over 100x that amount. If you had to pick between these two quarterbacks, even if you didn't run an option offense that needed a running quarterback, wouldn't you take the one that was almost guaranteed to sneak for a couple of yards when necessary, all other things basically equal?
In addition to the ten quarterbacks I listed, there are others that could be considered, but they all would have one or more drawbacks similar to the players above.
The winner: QB of the year
Tim Tebow (217 of 317 [68.5%] 3,132 yards; 29 TD 6 INT; 838 rush yds, 22 TD)
Tebow's TD numbers are astounding. His remarkable passing efficiency and rushing ability at the same time is comparable to Dennis Dixon's, but his scoring productivity is what makes him amazing. Everyone knows he's the first to both pass and run for 20 TDs, but to do so with only 6 interception and 1 fumble (0 according to "official" stats) is really remarkable. Last year when Colt Brennan had a record 63 total touchdowns, he had 12 turnovers in interceptions alone.
Tebow's passing numbers are either solid (completion percentage, total TDs, yardage), excellent (interceptions) or fantastic (efficiency, yards-per-attempt). His passing alone would make him a candidate for the best player at his position, and his great running stats and monster rushing TD total makes him the clear winner for Quarterback of the Year.
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