SportsRatings: College Football

Sun Bowl shocker - final score: Oregon 56, USF 21

Unbelievable! In a huge upset, Oregon blew out South Florida 56 to 21. Jonathan Steward rushed for 253 yards and 4th or 5th string quarterback Justin Roper threw for 4 touchdowns as the Ducks blew the game wide open with 28 third quarter points.

It's remarkable that they even led at half, 18-14. Without Dennis Dixon, the team had fallen apart, being shut out by UCLA and finishing 8-4 after an 8-1 start. Not only that, but South Florida had yet to lose a game by more than 5 points this season.

The Bulls started slow but tied the game at 11 in the 2nd quarter; then Steward went on a 71-yard rampage for a touchdown. Roper took over the game in the 2nd half with 3 TD passes in the 3rd quarter.

Both teams finished 9-4. The game, and its huge victory margin, is a blow to the Big East's attempt at getting respect this bowl season. The Pac-10 scored two big wins today, with both Oregon and Cal turning around late-season slumps to notch one more W.

Humanitarian Bowl surprise - final score: Fresno State 40, Georgia Tech 28

The Fresno State Bulldogs pulled off the upset Monday in Boise, scoring 17 second-quarter points. The Yellow Jackets led 7-0 but Fresno rattled off a total of 27 straight points to lead 27-7 early in the 3rd. Clifton Smith rushed for 153 yards for the Bulldogs.

The teams traded touchdowns after that until the 4th quarter, when Georgia Tech cut the lead to 34-28 on a Calvin Booker touchdown pass. But Fresno responded with a long drive that ended on a fumble at Tech's 6 yard line. The Bulldogs got the ball back again and scored with 2 minutes to go for the final margin.

Fresno State ended 9-4 after a 4-8 effort last season. Georgia Tech finished 7-6.

Music City Bowl mistake-fest - final score: Kentucky 35, Florida State 28

FSU had no right to be competitive in this game after losing 36 players to a cheating scandal and other problems. But they were, although the absence of so much experience showed up in the form of 2 interceptions and other errors. Kentucky, however, had their share of errors too, being intercepted once and fumbling 5 times, losing 3 of them.

Kentucky's Andre Woodson passed for 4 TDs, while FSU's Drew Weatherford had 2 touchdown passes and ran for another.

The teams traded touchdowns in each quarter on the way to a 14-14 halftime tie. The Wildcats took a 28-14 lead in the 3rd quarter on a Woodson pass and a Tony Dixon run. The teams traded touchdowns again, making it 35-21, when Weatherford cut it to a one-touchdown lead with 2 minutes remaining.

The depleted FSU defense held and they got the ball back with just over a minute to go. Weatherford was intercepted by Micah Johnson—who fumbled the ball after a 25-yard return, giving FSU yet another chance. They got into Kentucky territory with 3 seconds left but couldn't complete a miracle TD pass.

Kentucky finished 8-5 and Florida State ended the year 7-6—the same records the teams had at the end of last season.

Armed Force Bowl results - final score: California 42, Air Force 36

Air Force jumped to an early 21-0 lead but couldn't hold on, as Cal made a comeback and took over the game, winning 42-36.

Air Force senior quarterback Shaun Carney left the game with a knee injury just before Cal took the lead at the end of the third quarter.

Cal backup quarterback Kevin Riley threw for three touchdowns and ran for another, while Justin Forsett had 140 yards and two touchdowns. Riley's first two TDs came in the first half and cut the Falcon lead to 21-14. Forsett took over in the second half, scoring the go-ahead TD, then adding another to make it 35-27.

After Riley's final TD pass made it 42-30, Air Force mounted one last comeback attempt, with Chad Hall running it in from the 4. Strangely, the Falcons went for a 2 point conversion, which failed.

A conspiracy theorist might note that the line was 4 1/2...though you could reason that cutting the lead to 4, then getting another TD, would make a 3-point rather than 2-point margin. Either way, the Falcons blew a time out on the play, which made it that much easier for Cal to run out the clock after the onside kick failed.

Air Force falls to 9-4 for the year, while Cal salvages a winning season at 7-6.

Bowl tally: 9-7. Getting worse...

Sugar Bowl preview - Georgia vs. Hawaii

Tuesday Jan. 1st: Sugar Bowl in New Orleans 8:30pm eastern

#2 Hawai'i (12-0) vs. #8 Georgia (10-2)

In some ways this is the most interesting game of the bowl season. Note that my ranking of Hawaii is a "rewards" based ranking; as the only undefeated team, they get a big benefit of the doubt.

Vegas line: Georgia by 7 1/2

The line opened at 10 and has moved toward Hawai'i quite a bit.

Pts. Power Rating: Georgia 39   Hawai'i 30   

Georgia's and Hawai'i's scoring offense are roughly the same, ranking 24th and 18th, but Georgia's defense is much better, ranking 11th to Hawai'i's 85th. The spread widens to about 11 1/2 if you assign Georgia home advange for being thousands of miles closer to home.

Yardage analysis: Hawai'i 32   Georgia 24   

Shockingly, Hawai'i is favored by 8 when yardages rushing and passing are paired up and compared. Their total yardage on offense—adjusted for competition—ranks 5th to Georgia's surprising 57th. Hawai'i's defense looks better on yardage-only, ranking 51th, while the Bulldogs' is 14th.

This assumes yardage translates into score, and doesn't consider special teams play and things such as red zone percentage. Both teams are excellent at converting in the red zone, though Hawai'i's average is against easier competition. Still, this shows how Hawai'i could win the game.

When Hawai'i has the ball
Hawai'i passing offense: #2       Georgia passing defense: #27
Hawai'i rushing offense: #120  Georgia rushing defense: #17

Only Navy and Texas Tech have as one-dimensional an offense as Hawai'i. The Bulldogs passing defense will have its hands full. But they won't have to worry about the run, and if they can mount a good pass rush and get to Brennan they can disrupt the Warriors' game plan on offense. They haven't faced a team like Georgia this year.

When Georgia has the ball
Georgia passing offense: #81  Hawai'i passing defense: #33
Georgia rushing offense: #28  Hawai'i rushing defense: #66

But the Bulldogs still have to score points themselves. Their running game is their bread and butter, and Hawai'i's rushing D isn't very good. This implies that they should be able to keep up with Brennan if he's having a good day, or run the clock down if they need to hold a lead.

Pairwise-comparison win %
Hawai'i                  30
Georgia                 70

Even with no losses, Hawai'i has looked bad in a lot of games, especially when they aren't at home. If the Warriors are considered the road team the odds of Georgia winning increase to 3/4.

Georgia's key games
Wins over bowl teams(6): #11 Florida 42-30; Auburn 45-20; Kentucky 24-13; Georgia Tech 31-17; Oklahoma State 35-14; @Alabama 26-23ot
Losses (2): South Carolina 16-12; @Tennessee 35-14

With six bowl team wins—four in the second half of the season—Georgia would seem to live up to the proclamations that they are "playing the best right now." But look a little deeper and they're not quite that impressive. Their biggest win, certainly, is over Florida. Beyond that, the 45-20 shellacking of Auburn is certainly impressive. But then you get a list of wins that, while good, certainly don't rate as world-beating. There was little domination, either; they beat Vanderbilt 20-17 and Troy 44-34. Basically the Bulldogs played like a good team the first half of the year, and like a great team the 2nd half, but not the best of any team.

The loss to South Carolina shouldn't be counted harshly against the Bulldogs, as the Gamecocks first half-season was excellent. But they were dominated in the Tennessee loss. Starting with the Florida game, the offense picked up the pace, and with it the running game led by Knowshon Moreno asserted himself. They are a different team than they were in the first half of the season, but not that much different. Sometimes a team just happens to win several games in a row, without there being a fundamental difference.

Hawai'i's key games
Wins over bowl teams(3): #20 Boise State 39-27; Fresno State 37-30; @Nevada 28-26
Losses (0)

Hawai'i's schedule was nothing like Georgia Tech's. As impressive as their vacant "L" column is, it's not surprising given their schedule. Consider their bowl team wins. The victory over Boise State was far and away their most impressive game, and only win over a top 25 team. But it was at home, where Hawai'i thrives, and Boise State was defeated in their bowl game by middling East Carolina. They also beat Fresno State at home. Nevada, who lost their bowl game to finish 6-7, is their best road victim, and they beat them by two points.

The rest of Hawai'i's wins reveal even more. They beat Division I-AA teams Northern Colorado and Charleston Southern by a combined 129-16. They throttled Idaho (1-11) 48-20, UNLV (2-10) 49-14, Utah State (2-10) 52-37, and New Mexico State (4-9) 50-13. Those six games show the Warriors can dominate very bad teams.

Their other three games show how vulnerable they are to any halfway decent team, especially on the road. At Louisiana Tech (5-7) the Warriors needed overtime to win. At San José State (5-7), another overtime win. Against Washington at home, they fell behind 21-0 and 28-7 before mounting a comeback to win.

So in total, we have:

- 6 dominant wins over truly awful teams
- 3 scares against bad teams
- 3 wins against bowl teams

Road play: Hawai'i will essentially be on the road for this bowl. Their road record consists of 2 easy wins over terrible teams, and three near-losses, two of these in overtime against non-bowl teams.

Psychology

Is Georgia disappointed by not being in a BCS game? By drawing Hawai'i as their opponent rather than one of the best teams? One would have to guess the answer is yes. What do they gain by beating Hawai'i? Not much, and they have a lot to lose.

Hawai'i on the other hand, is likely very excited at this opportunity. It's what they've worked for all year. Look for them to play with incredible energy, and if things start going well, they will feed on it.

Final analysis

Some people are invoking last year's Boise State-Oklahoma game to argue Hawai'i should be taken seriously in this game. But Boise State last year was a legitimate top ten team, based on the schedule they played and the manner in which they beat teams. They didn't need overtime to beat mediocre opponents, and they didn't play two Division I-AA teams and a full gamut of the worst Division I-A teams.

Georgia, too, is better than Oklahoma was last season. Hawai'i's defense is poor. The only way the Warriors have a chance is if they play out of their heads, and Georgia has a letdown game. That's not what happened last year—Boise State was every bit as good as Oklahoma. If Hawai'i even stays with Georgia, it will be a fluke. They've played so poorly away from home, I can't see them winning.

Not that it can't happen. But if it does, unlike last year, it will be the unexpected, rare result that wouldn't replicate more than a few times out of ten.

Prediction: Georgia 42   Hawai'i  28

Rose Bowl preview - Southern Cal vs. Illinois

Tuesday Jan. 1st: Rose Bowl in Pasedena 4:30pm eastern

#10 Southern Cal (10-2) vs. #12 Illinois (9-3)

I rank these teams a lot closer than most polls; I'm looking at who they've actually defeated, not style points. USC is clearly more talented by a wide measure, but they haven't always shown it. They're starting to, late in the year. Illinois may be peaking at the right time as well.

Vegas line: USC by 13 1/2

The line has moved a bit from the 14 point open. This is the widest line of the bowl season, by quite a bit.

Pts. Power Rating:  Southern Cal 27   Illinois 16   

USC's offense really hasn't been great this year; they're 33rd in adjusted scoring offense. Illinois has actually been a bit better, at 30th. But defense is where the Trojans have shined all year, and they rank third in the nation to Illinois' 18th. This score projection is with home field advantage added for the Trojans.

Yardage analysis: Southern Cal 34   Illinois 13   

This is where things start looking rough for the Illini—when offensive and defensive components are lined up and compared. USC is 2nd in yardage defense, 21st in offensive yardage (all adjusted for competition). The Illini are only 48th and 30th in the same categories.

When Southern Cal has the ball
Southern Cal passing offense: #45    Illinois passing defense: #96
Southern Cal rushing offense: #21    Illinois rushing defense: #24

Though they've struggled at times this year, the Trojans offense matches up well with the Illini defense. The passing game—hurt by Booty's injury and absence—should be able to function well. And the running game, which has carried the load in many games, will have to fight for their yards against Illinois' decent running D, but have enough backs to mix it up successfully.

When Illinois has the ball
Illinois passing offense: #114  Southern Cal passing defense: #2
Illinois rushing offense: #5      Southern Cal rushing defense: #3

Don't look for Illinois to be able to pass much in this game. Whether they can run or not is the big question. If they can't, it's all over for them. USC has had an airtight rushing D for the last two years. Juice Williams has really come on in the last few games, and adding him as a real threat along with Rashad Mendenhall could allow them to move the ball. Williams was able to run on Ohio State, who has a rushing D as good as USC's.

Pairwise-comparison win %
Southern Cal           75
Illinois                    25

Despite their mid-season problems, USC played well enough in other games to have a 3 in 4 chance of a better team than Illinois showing up in the Rose Bowl. If the Illini that beat Ohio State shows up, they've got a good shot.

Illinois's key games
Wins over bowl teams(5): @#1 Ohio State 28-21; #22 Wisconsin 31-26; Penn State 27-20; @Indiana 27-14; Ball State 28-17
Losses (3): @Iowa 10-6; Michigan 27-17; vs. #6 Missouri 40-34

The Illini showed they can play with the best teams in the country this year; they beat five bowl teams, including top-ranked Ohio State in Columbus. They also played a tight game with Missouri in St. Louis.

They also showed that they can be upset by an inferior team, losing to Iowa on the road while scoring a season-low six points. Michigan's defense also held them to an abnormally low score while beating them in Champaign.

Southern Cal's key games
Wins over bowl teams(4): #18 Arizona State 44-24; Oregon State 24-3; @Cal 24-17; UCLA 24-7
Losses (2): Stanford 24-23; @Oregon 24-17

If you just look at USC's wins and losses, and don't attach the "Southern Cal" label to them, you'd likely not be impressed with their results this year, especially the first two-thirds of it. In that stretch they went 0-1 against winning teams, and 6-1 against teams with losing records. They finished 2-1 against winning teams, but did beat their first top 25 team in their 2nd to last game.

Of course there are the excuses for losing to Stanford at home, but no other team is given a pass for something like that. Viewed objectively, USC has not had the season that a dominant team would have. Their schedule has been rather easy, and the evaluations of the team are based on how they've done the last several years, as well as looking at their players. The latter of which is one good way to assess a team. But you can't claim they've put together a quality résumé of wins to argue that they're on of the top teams in the nation.

The best team they've beaten is ASU, and the worst they've lost to is Stanford. By that limited measure, the Illini outclass them. If you look at the scores of the games, USC has shown more dominance on several occasions.

Psychology

USC is vulnerable to overconfidence, and they certainly might be overconfident after another month of hearing how they're the "real" best team, and naturally not taking the Illini seriously.

The Illini have an assortment of potential problems. Underconfidence. Overenthusiasm. Inexperience.

Underconfidence: will they play in awe of USC? Probably not. They've already faced Ohio State on the road, and they did okay there.

Overenthusiasm: they may come out too keyed up. It's up to the older players and coaching staff to keep them focused. Going from 2-10 to the Rose Bowl is a big step.

Inexperience: This one's going to be tough. When a team that hasn't had a big bowl game in a long time finds itself there, it can be a recipe for disaster, especially historically among Big Ten teams making their first Rose Bowl trip in a generation. When Iowa broke the 13-year Ohio State-Michigan Rose Bowl death grip in 1982, they laid a 0-28 egg. Same for the Illini, when in 1984 they made their first Rose Bowl trip in 20 years. The score: UCLA 45, Illinois 9. Now it's been another 24 years. How will they respond?

Final analysis

There's a reason the Big Ten has done so poorly in the Rose Bowl historically: the game is played in UCLA's stadium, in USC's backyard. In the Rose Bowl games since 1970 pairing a traditional Big Ten-Pac 10 matchup, the Pac-10 is 23-11. But 15 of those wins were from when USC or UCLA was the Pac-10 representative. With the Trojans or Bruins the Pac-10 was 15-5; without them, a normal 8-6.

So there's a much larger-than-normal home field advantage when one of these teams plays the Big Ten representative in Pasadena, and moreso when the Big Ten rep is a team that hasn't been there in a while. The team from the midwest must cope with the distractions of California which can be overwhelming for the players who've rarely been outside their home state. It's hard for a coach to know how much he should let a team relax, and how hard he should work them, or whether delay all leisure activities until after the game. Hayden Fry tried three different strategies and never got it right. It can be done, though:

Big Ten teams with long Rose Bowl gaps

Team          Years    Result
Iowa        1959-1982  Washington 28, Iowa 0
Illinois    1964-1984  UCLA 45, Illinois 9
Michigan St 1966-1988  MSU 20, USC 17
Wisconsin   1963-1994  Wisconsin 21, UCLA 16
Purdue      1967-2001  Washington 34, Purdue 24
Illinois    1984-2008  ???

Few if any of Illinois' players were born the last time the Illini went to the Rose Bowl. Conversely, most of this year's USC squad was part of the team when they beat Michigan, and the others watched it on tv as high school seniors. I don't see another blowout, but USC's experience and home advantage can't be denied.

Prediction: Southern Cal 24  Illinois 17

Capital One Bowl preview - Michigan vs. Florida

Tuesday Jan. 1st: Capital One Bowl in Orlanda 1:00pm eastern

#11 Florida (9-3) vs. Michigan (8-4)

Heisman winner Tim Tebow leads the Gators against the Wolverines.

Vegas line: Florida by 10 1/2

The line opened at 10 and now is at 10 1/2, one of the biggest spreads of the bowl season. Will the disrespect motivate Michigan?

Pts. Power Rating: Florida 39   Michigan 20   

This is where the Vegas line comes from. A points-based power rating makes Florida an 18 1/2 point favorite, and rounds to the projected score above. This is the starting point for most oddsmakers, then all other factors are added in. Florida has the #1 scoring offense in the country in points per game adjusted for competition. Michigan's offense ranks only 62nd. Florida's defense is 40th, and Michigans is a perhaps-surprising 8th.

Yardage analysis:   Florida 31   Michigan 17   

By yardage it's not quite as bad for the Wolverines. Florida's offense ranks 9th, their defense 31st; Michigan's offense is 75th and defense, 17th. Florida scores a lot of points for the yards they gain; their red zone percentage is pretty good with Tebow running it in.

When Michigan has the ball
Michigan passing offense: #86    Florida passing defense: #93
Michigan rushing offense: #42    Florida rushing defense: #7

The Wolverine offense has been hobbled by injuries all year. With a healthy Michael Hart, their running game is better than 42nd, and with Chad Henne they're better than 86th in passing. Florida's rushing defense has stopped almost everyone this side of Knowshon Moreno, so Hart will be an interesting test for them. Their passing defense is vulnerable if Henne and Mario Manningham have good games.

In all, Hart missed three games (Illinois, Minnesota, and Wisconsin) and Henne missed most or all of four (Notre Dame, Penn State, Minnesota, and Wisconsin). That leaves only seven games where they both played, which is a skew on these rushing and passing stats.

When Florida has the ball
Florida passing offense: #23  Michigan passing defense: #14
Florida rushing offense: #17  Michigan rushing defense: #28

Florida has great balance on offense, and his name is Tim Tebow. Passing for over 3,000 yards and rushing for over 800, with 51 total touchdowns, Tebow is a tough pill for opposing defenses. Michigan's defense, so maligned at the beginning of the year, has responded well. But Tebow is similar to the quarterbacks that gave the Wolverines fits in the first two games, except he relies on power more than speed when he runs. Unless Tebow's hand is worse than advertised—his one bad game was against Georgia when he had an injury—he'll get his touchdowns vs. Michigan.

Pairwise-comparison win %
Michigan               17.4
Florida                  82.3

Comparing the teams game-by-game, and against each other's game, Florida has outperformed Michigan greatly. Even some of Florida's losses were impressive efforts.

Florida's key games
Wins over bowl teams(4): Tennessee 59-20; Florida State 45-12; @Kentucky 45-37; Florida Atl 59-20;
Losses (3): Auburn 20-17; @#8 Georgia 42-30; @#3 LSU 28-24

If you look only at Florida's wins and losses and ignore scores, they would seem to be overhyped. No wins over consensus top 25 teams, and three losses including a home loss to Auburn. But the scores tells us they won big and lost by a hair. The Auburn and LSU contests were down to the wire and the Georgia game was closer than the score.

When they won, it didn't matter much who they played. Troy, FAU or Tennessee? No matter: The Gators scored 59 in each case. Florida State or Kentucky? 45 points. Their high-powered offense scored 45 or more points in 2/3 of their games. But three of the four times that they failed to hit 45, they lost.

Michigan's key games
Wins over bowl teams(3): @#12 Illinois 27-17; Penn State 14-9; Purdue 48-21; @Michigan State 28-24
Losses (4): Appalachian State 34-32; Oregon 39-7; @#22 Wisconsin 37-21; #1 Ohio State 14-3

Michigan's first two games were abominable, losing to Division I-AA Appalachian State (though they proved to be the division's best team) and then being scorched by Oregon in the followup.

They won eight straight from there, including a win at Illinois. They lost their last two games, but neither was as awful as the first two losses.

The season started out a humiliation, became a redemption, but fell short of a resurrection for Lloyd Carr's reputation and career at Michigan.

Psychology

Michigan is going through a coaching change in a very real way, with Rich Rodriguez firing all of Lloyd Carr's assistants and rehiring one, all before Carr coaches his final game. This has got to be somewhat disruptive to those trying to get the team ready for a challenge like Florida.

Florida's year was certainly a step down from last season; in one stretch the Gators lost 3 of 4, which hasn't happened since Ron Zook. But fans won't get down on Urban Meyer any more than they'd give Tim Tebow the Chris Leak treatment. This is still a good bowl, Tebow won the Heisman, and the fans and team are excited. Tickets are going overwhelmingly to Florida fans in this near-to-home game.

Final analysis

When you look at Florida's season and Tim Tebow's stats, one thing stands out: when he does well, the team wins. When he does relatively poorly, the team loses. In other words, he's responsible for making the team win. Each time he has scored four or more touchdowns, Florida has won the game. When he's scored three or fewer, they've lost.

If this holds true, then the challenge for Michigan is too keep Tebow's combined touchdown tally below four. Michigan didn't do very well against the first two running quarterbacks they faced obviously. But later in the year they had improved quite a bit, well enough to beat Illinois with Juice Williams.

Tebow's better, and different, than Williams; he's a punishing rather than evasive runner, and a more dangerous passer. Assuming he's healthy, he's hard to stop. But Auburn essentially slowed him down enough for even their offense to win the game. And Michigan's offense and defense aren't terribly different than Auburn's in ranking. To be sure, the defense is not as good, but it is good, and balanced in that neither the run or pass defense is attrocious; and their offense is somewhat better certainly than Auburn's. They at least have a reason to not throw in the towel.

Michigan is a different team than they were the first two games. Not that they're a great team now, but they aren't as bad as they were when they were surprised during the first game and played shellshocked through the second. They probably haven't totally solved the spread-QB riddle that plagued them then, and they probably won't stop Tebow from getting his four touchdowns, nor overcome Florida's home crowd advantage fully; but Michigan's seniors won't go out without a fight.

Prediction: Florida 34   Michigan 27

Gator Bowl preview - Virginia vs. Texas Tech

Tuesday Jan. 1st: Gator Bowl in Jacksonville 1:00pm eastern

#15 Virginia (9-3) vs. Texas Tech (8-4)

ACC vs. Big 12, let's get it on.

Vegas line: Texas Tech by 6

The line has remained steady at 6.

Pts. Power Rating: Texas Tech 33    Virginia 25     

The defenses are about even, Virginia's ranking 33rd and Texas Tech's ranking 42nd, but the Red Raider offense is 10th in the country in adjusted scoring, and the Cavaliers' is only 61st. Hence the 8 point gap in the projected score.

Yardage analysis: Texas Tech 45   Virginia 17   

Now that's a difference. Two things are different about this yardage-based projection than the scoring projection. 1) Texas Tech's offense is #1 in yardage gained (adjusted), and Virginia's offense is only 91st. Tech tends to put up a lot of yards whether or not they score a lot, while Virginia scores a lot more points than their yardage numbers would suggest they should.

A lot of pass-happy offenses face Tech's scoring problem: good teams still might yield lots of yards to them, but when the field is shorter, as in the red zone, they can defend the run-and-shoot easier. Also, better teams tend to make more interceptions.

Why Virginia scores more than its yardage-share of points is not clear, but they get their share of turnovers and don't get penalized often. Good special teams play can make up for lack of raw yardage, too.

When Texas Tech has the ball
Texas Tech passing offense: #1        Virginia passing defense: #75
Texas Tech rushing offense: #118    Virginia rushing defense: #41

Texas Tech has the best passing offense in the country—or at least, the most productive. They'd better be ranked high considering how often they throw the ball: almost 58 times a game. They don't use their running game much at all. Virginia's pass defense is not good by any means, but they have an all-American lineman in Chris Long, the nation's sack leader. Putting pressure on Graham Harrell looks like the Cavaliers only hope. Without pressure, he'll find Michael Crabtree or the several other receivers he has at his disposal.

When Virginia has the ball
Virginia passing offense: #72  Texas Tech passing defense: #3
Virginia rushing offense: #80  Texas Tech rushing defense: #73

Tech has a great passing defense to complement the offense. Virginia's not great through the air, but neither are they on the ground. Still, the latter is their best bet for success.

Pairwise-comparison win %
Texas Tech                 65.3
Virginia                      34.7

Comparing their performance quality, Texas Tech has a distinct edge. But Virginia seems to play to the level of their competition; they stick close to good teams and pull out a win at the end. Their wins aren't dominant though, and don't rate as high as the Red Raider blowout victories.

Virginia's key games
Wins over bowl teams(4): #16 UConn 17-16; Wake Forest 17-16; Georgia Tech 28-23; @Maryland 18-17
Losses (3): @Wyoming 23-3; @North Carolina State 29-24; #5 Virginia Tech 33-21

The Cavs had a remarkable year, going 9-3 and winning six games by 5 points or less. Their opening debacle against Wyoming was followed with seven straight wins, then another poor loss to N.C. State.

The question is, which games are the fluke? The losses to two bad teams? Or the tight game wins against the better teams? Virginia should have been 11-1 by the first logic, or about 5-7 by the latter.

Texas Tech's key games
Wins over bowl teams(2): #4 Oklahoma 34-27; Texas A&M 35-7
Losses (4): Colorado 31-26; @Oklahoma State 49-45; @#21 Texas 59-43; @#6 Missouri 41-10

Texas Tech's best win came in their last game when they upset Oklahoma. Much of this was due to Sam Bradford not playing for the Sooners, but they did put up 34 points and hold on when they had to. Both their quality wins came at home.

Even when they lost they put up big numbers (with the exception of the Missouri game), but their defense can get tired from being on the field too much due to their quick-strike, no huddle offense.

Psychology

Both teams should be pleased with this bowl matchup. Virginia's Al Groh was considered by many to be on his way out if the Cavs didn't produce—but they did. The Red Raiders finished on a high note after losing a few games they thought they should have won.

Virginia will likely have more fans support at the game, as Tech ticket sales have been slow for the Florida bowl compared to the nearby Cavaliers.

Final analysis

Virginia had a lot of luck beating the teams they beat this season. Nevertheless, they have twice the bowl-team victories of Texas Tech, who played mostly according to script this season, save the upset over the Sooners.

When a team wins a lot of close games, you can either reason that they aren't as good as their record indicates, or that they play well under pressure and might win if the game gets close. But not only has Virginia squeaked by several opponents, they also lost to two teams with losing records, indicating that they're capable of very poor play.

Texas Tech is a lot more consistent. You know what you're getting from them; you just have to slow down their passing attack or they'll kill you. From the numbers, it looks like Virginia won't have much luck doing so; their defense doesn't match up well. But teams like Tech can be beat with a certain game plan and a team that can execute it. Virginia has a good pass rush and seems to throw teams off their game plan.

Overall though, I can't ignore this mismatch suggested by Virginia's vulnerable pass defense. I'll believe they can overwhelm Harrell when I see it. Mostly I imagine the ball falling into Michael Crabtree's hands, and him darting through defenders on his way to a touchdown.

Prediction: Texas Tech 37  Virginia 23

Cotton Bowl preview - Missouri vs. Arkansas

Tuesday Jan. 1st: Cotton Bowl in Dallas 11:30am eastern

#6 Missouri (11-2) vs. Arkansas (8-4)

Possibly the most interesting matchup of the bowl season.

Vegas line: Missouri by 3 1/2

The line opened at 3.

Pts. Power Rating: Missouri 41   Arkansas 33   

Missouri's and Arkansas's scoring offense are both great, for different reasons of course. They rank 2nd and 6th respectively in points scored (adjusted for opponents' defenses). Missouri's defense is better at 21st than Arkansas' 54th.

Yardage analysis:  Missouri 42   Arkansas 31   

In adjusted yards, Missouri has the #3 offense, and Arkansas' is 13th. Defensively, they rank 27th and 49th. Overall their net yardages convert into scored points at the expected rate.

When Arkansas has the ball
Arkansas passing offense: #108    Missouri passing defense: #65
Arkansas rushing offense: #2        Missouri rushing defense: #20

Here's where the comparison gets interesting. Almost all of Arkansas' production is from rushing; their passing game under Casey Dick is meager and unreliable. The Razorbacks have not one but two of the best backs in the country in Darren McFadden and Felix Jones, who need 201 combined yards to become the all-time single-season best rushing duo. That title is currently held by Reggie Bush and LenDale White; McFadden has 1,725 yards and Jones has 1,117.

Missouri doesn't have to worry about the pass in general (unless McFadden takes the direct snap), but they'll have a hard time stopping both McFadden and Jones. Their rushing defense is good, though, and several teams have successfully slowed down the Razorbacks, notably Auburn, who held them to 7 points.

When Missouri has the ball
Missouri passing offense: #7    Arkansas passing defense: #56
Missouri rushing offense: #40  Arkansas rushing defense: #50

If the Tigers can't stop the Razorbacks, they'll have to keep up with them, and Missouri's passing game is capable of doing just that. The can go to the run when necessary, too, and Arkansas' average defense will have a hard time stopping them. Behind Chase Daniel and Jeremy Maclin, the Missouri offense has a lot of weapons.

Pairwise-comparison win %
Arkansas                 38.5
Missouri                   61.5

Missouri has played well all year, save perhaps their last loss against Oklahoma. Arkansas has had some stumbles along the way, and this percentage reflects that.

Missouri's key games
Wins over bowl teams(5): vs. #7 Kansas 36-28; vs. #12 Illinois 40-34; Texas Tech 41-10; Texas A&M 40-26; @Colorado 55-10
Losses (2): @#4 Oklahoma 41-31; vs. #4 Oklahoma 38-17

Missouri was essentially a 1-loss team this year, defeated by Oklahoma on the road and on neutral ground. Though they couldn't solve the Sooners, they put the hurt on almost everyone else on their schedule, tearing down Texas Tech, Texas A&M, and Colorado by a combined 136 to 46.

Their wins over ranked teams Kansas and Illinois were much closer games, suggesting that they'd have a rough game with any top ten or maybe even top 25 team. It's not clear where Arkansas falls into that assessment, but at 8-4 they look closer to Texas Tech than Oklahoma.

Arkansas's key games
Wins over bowl teams(2): @#4 Louisiana State 50-48ot; Mississippi State 45-31
Losses (4): @Tennessee 34-13; @Alabama 41-38; Kentucky 42-29; Auburn 9-7;

The Razorbacks played a lot of teams close and came out behind until the LSU win. Running out of gas against Alabama, Kentucky, and Auburn, they beat up on lesser competition and were 6-3 when they traveled to Tennessee and suffered their only clear-cut loss of the season.

They followed that up with their two best wins of the year. They were expected to beat Mississippi State but not Louisiana State, which became their signature win by far.

Psychology

By beating LSU, Arkansas got a great bowl game—New Year's Day, a top ten opponent—for an 8-4 team. Missouri, however, feels slighted by the BCS system. They have only themselves to blame for losing to Oklahoma, but they have a legitimate gripe at being passed over by the Orange Bowl for the Kansas team they beat just a week earlier.

Some of this will be offset by the end of the year, since this is, after all, Missouri's breakthrough season. They've won eleven games already, and are playing in January for the first time since 1970. How much they take that perspective instead of holding on to the recent snub may determine their mental state at gametime.

Arkansas' outlook without Houston Nutt is questionable as well. They're being coached, for now, by defensive coordinater Reggie Herring. This is probably better than having incoming coach Bobby Petrino take over for the game.

Final analysis

This is a great matchup. I doubt either team will be able to contain the other, and that means a lot of scoring. Missouri has definitely had the better season, and has beaten better teams overall more convincingly. Arkansas plays in the tough SEC, but they had an easy non-conference schedule.

Missouri looks a lot like a couple of the teams that beat Arkansas this season: they combine a passing game better than Kentucky's with a rushing defense almost as good as Auburn's. But the Razorbacks have a chance against them if they can play like they did at LSU. Arkansas' defense is not going to stop Missouri, so they have to make sure they can score. For that, they need to run the Wildhog formation, letting McFadden be the de facto quarterback. Will the interim coach set the offense free? He's going to need to take chances to stay in this one.

The odds of Arkansas repeating their LSU performance are slim. They're going to have to hope Missouri stays disappointed at the BCS snub. But Chase Daniel has a winner's mentality and probably won't let the team do that.

Prediction: Missouri 41   Arkansas 31

Outback Bowl preview - Wisconsin vs. Tennessee

Tuesday Jan. 1st: Outback Bowl in Tampa 11:00am eastern

#22 Wisconsin (9-3) vs. Tennessee (9-4)

Ah, New Year's Day. Now the real bowl games begin.

Vegas line: Tennessee by 2

The line started at 3 and narrowed to 2, making it the closest game in Vegas' opinion.

Pts. Power Rating: Tennessee 34   Wisconsin 30   

Tennessee's offense ranks higher than Wisconsin's, 16th to 34th, in adjusted scoring, and the Volunteer defense is only slightly lower than the Badgers', 49th to 43rd.

Yardage analysis:  Wisconsin 31    Tennessee 28   

When only adjusted yards are considered, Wisconsin outgains Tennessee slightly. The offense gap closes (the Badgers are 41st, the Volunteers 26th) and defensively Wisconsin gives up a lot fewer yards, ranking 34th to Tennessee's 63rd.

When Wisconsin has the ball
Wisconsin passing offense: #75    Tennessee passing defense: #103
Wisconsin rushing offense: #15    Tennessee rushing defense: #30

The Badger running game starring P.J. Hill is potent, and although Tennessee's rushing defense is good, it will have a challenge on its hands. Wisconsin can throw the ball reasonably well, too, they just have so much success running that they don't go to the air as much as most teams, but the Volunteers' poor pass defense will be tempting to test.

Two defensive starters are among the six players declared academically ineligible for the bowl.

When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee passing offense: #27  Wisconsin passing defense: #57
Tennessee rushing offense: #49  Wisconsin rushing defense: #31

Tennessee will go to the air as usual, and should have success against Wisconsin despite the loss of top receiver Lucas Taylor. The running game will meet some resistance, though, but Arian Foster will be hard to shut down completely.

Pairwise-comparison win %
Wisconsin                 42.3
Tennessee                57.7

Tennessee has generally played better than Wisconsin this year; while they've had their share of bad games, it took Wisconsin half the year before they started playing well.

Tennessee's key games
Wins over bowl teams(5): #8 Georgia 35-14; Arkansas 34-13; Southern Miss 39-19; @Miss. State 33-21; @Kentucky 52-50ot;
Losses (4): @Alabama 41-17; @Cal 45-31; @#11 Florida 59-20; vs. #3 LSU 21-14

Tennessee played nine bowl teams and beat five of them; they were 1-2 vs. currently ranked teams. Their biggest win was clearly the swamping of Georgia, who hasn't lost since. They were impressive over Arkansas as well.

The Alabama and Florida losses stalled their season mid-way at 4-3, but the Volunteers won five in a row, including a triple overtime win at Kentucky, before falling to LSU in a close game for the SEC title. In all, a very tough schedule.

Wisconsin's key games
Wins over bowl teams(3): Michigan 37-21; Indiana 33-3; Michigan State 37-34
Losses (3): @Penn State 38-7; @#12 Illinois 31-26; @#1 Ohio State 38-17

Wisconsin's schedule isn't as stacked as Tennessee's. They beat and lost to three bowl teams, going 0-2 vs. ranked teams. All their best wins came at home, with all of their losses on the road.

More revealing, perhaps, than their key games are their games against weaker foes: barely beating 2-10 UNLV 20-13; trading touchdowns with the The Citadel before putting them away in the 2nd half; slipping past Iowa 17-13; and, in their last game at 1-11 Minnesota, winning only 41-34.

Psychology

This is one game where both teams are probably glad to be where they are. Wisconsin is in familiar territory going to a game in Florida and playing an SEC team, even though they haven't played Tennessee in over a quarter-century. The Volunteers couldn't beat LSU to make a BCS bowl, but they're playing on New Year's Day in a prominent bowl. Though things could have been better, a 4-loss team is lucky to be playing in January.

Final analysis

Both teams have beaten their share of good teams, and lost to good teams. They've even played some very poor teams and played them too close.

The difference is, Tennessee has played many more good teams than Wisconsin. Not all these games went Tennessee's way, especially the blowout loss to Florida. A few of the teams they lost to went 6-6, but at the time they played Tennessee, Cal and Alabama were top teams.

They had a scare against Vanderbilt, but Wisconsin had scares against four teams of Vanderbilt's level or worse. The Badgers played a lot better against their tougher opponents, but I'm not sure they've shown the ability to beat a team as good as Tennessee. They beat Michigan, but that was at home. They lost to Penn State in a rout, and Tennessee is at least as good as the Nittany Lions.

Tennessee beat Georgia and Arkansas, two teams as good or better than Wisconsin. If the Badgers play the way they did against their weaker opponents, they'll lose in a rout. Play like they did otherwise and it should be a good game; they've made a habit of winning bowl games and beating SEC teams. They match up well against Tennessee, even without considering the Volunteers, including three starters, who will be absent for the game.

It's no wonder this is the closest line of any of the bowl games. I keep changing my mind back and forth on this one. But I think Wisconsin will perform as usual—over its head at bowl time—and eke out the win.

Prediction: Wisconsin 31  Tennessee 30

Insight Bowl preview - Indiana vs. Oklahoma State

Monday Dec. 31: Insight Bowl in Tempe 6:00pm eastern

Oklahoma State (6-6) vs. Indiana (7-5)

Here is my "insight" into this bowl game. Ha! Seriously, I hate the corporate bowl names.

Vegas line: Oklahoma State by 4 1/2

The line has moved slightly, starting at 4.

Pts. Power Rating: Oklahoma State 37   Indiana 26   

Oklahoma State can score a lot if they're "on." Their adjusted scoring offense ranks 20th while Indiana's defense ranks 69th, so they may put up a lot. The other comparison—Indiana's offense vs. the Cowboy defense—is an even match, as both rank 51st.

Yardage analysis:  Oklahoma State 45   Indiana 24   

The spread gets even wider when tallying by yardage. Since Indiana's adjusted yardage defense is 73th (very similar to their scoring defense rank), the difference is in Oklahoma State's offense, which ranks 6th by yardage. Since their scoring offense ranks only 20th, this means that for some reason, they aren't scoring as much as their yard-gaining capability would indicate. This can be due to many reasons, including turnovers and poor 3rd down conversion percentage, but the Cowboys aren't bad in either category. It may just be from poor red zone play, or from other issues not encapsulated by rushing and passing yards alone, such as penalties, which have slowed them this year.

When Oklahoma State has the ball
Oklahoma State passing offense: #40    Indiana passing defense: #87
Oklahoma State rushing offense: #7      Indiana rushing defense: #63

This is why the gap widened with the yardage analysis—the Cowboys should be able to move the ball well both on the ground and in the air against the Hoosiers.

When Indiana has the ball
Indiana passing offense: #66  Oklahoma State passing defense: #78
Indiana rushing offense: #66  Oklahoma State rushing defense: #65

Indiana will be able to get their share of offense going, too. The running game matchup is pretty even on both sides of the ball, and though the Hoosiers aren't Texas Tech, they do throw the ball well and have an all-American receiver in James Hardy.

Pairwise-comparison win %
Oklahoma State          75
Indiana                       25

What this is saying is: if you grade each team's performance for each game they played, then cross-compare all those performances, 3/4 of the time Oklahoma State had the better performance. So on a given day when any incarnation of a team may show up, this gives you the odds that one team's incarnation is better than the other's. Bowl games tend to show new sides of a team, and often teams give their best performance of the year at the end.

Indiana's key games
Wins over bowl teams(2): Purdue 27-24; Ball State 38-20
Losses (5): @Northwestern 31-28; @Michigan State 52-27; Penn State 36-31; @#22 Wisconsin 33-3; #12 Illinois 27-14

The '07 Hoosiers didn't beat a lot of good teams, but they didn't lost to many bad ones. Purdue and Ball State were the only winning teams they beat, but none of the teams that beat them were losing teams. Indiana won only one road game, at Iowa.

Oklahoma State's key games
Wins over bowl teams(2): Texas Tech 49-45; Florida Atlantic 42-6
Losses (6): @Troy 41-23; @Texas A&M 24-23; @#21 Texas 38-35; @#4 Oklahoma 49-17; @#8 Georgia 35-14; Kansas 43-28

Oklahoma State wasn't a model of consistency in 2007; they could get blown out one week and crush an opponent the next. Their first three games were a loss at Georiga by 21, then a win over FAU by 36, then a game at Troy in which they were down 41-10 by the fourth quarter.

They had their share of tight games as well, beating Texas Tech and losing to A&M; also in a 41-39 win over Kansas State and 38-35 in Texas' annual comeback victory. They ended with a blowout over Baylor and a blowout loss to the Sooners.

Psychology

Indiana is in their first bowl game in 14 years, just months after ex-coach Terry Hoeppner died of cancer. Interim head coach Bill Lynch recently signed a contract through 2012. This bowl game will be an emotional tribute to their beloved former coach.

Oklahoma State doesn't have anything to compete with that. They'll be glad to be going to a bowl at 6-6, but disappointed that they didn't improve over last year's record. They can match it with a win on Monday.

Final analysis

While the Hoosiers should have the emotional edge, they also have a big advantage when they line up with the ball looking to pass: James Hardy. Teams with lesser pass defenses (like the Cowboys) have fits trying to guard the 6-7 standout, and he'll look to make an impression in what could be his last game.

But the Cowboys will be able to pass as well, and run, too. In fact, this game really should be about offense. And while Indiana will have to fight for their yards, it will come somewhat easier for Oklahoma State. The question is whether this will be reflected on the scoreboard. An emotionally-charged Indiana team might be able to dig in its heels in the red zone and force a lot of field goal attempts.

But this emotional advantage has a lot to overcome. The Hoosiers might come out pumped up and have some success, but over time I believe that Oklahoma State's offense will grind out the win.

Prediction: Oklahoma State 40  Indiana 35

Chick-Fil-A Bowl preview - #23 Clemson vs. Auburn

Monday Dec. 31: Chick-Fil-A Bowl in Atlanta 7:30pm eastern

#23 Clemson (9-3) vs. Auburn (8-4)

The worst-named bowl game gives us a great ACC/SEC matchup between two very good teams. There are a lot of variables, but one thing's for certain: the Tigers will win this game.

Vegas line: Clemson by 2 1/2

The line opened at 2 points. This is one of the closest lines of the bowl season, along with Tennesee vs. Wisconsin.

Pts. Power Rating: Clemson 22   Auburn 17   

A low score is projected by the fact that these teams both have excellent defenses, Auburn in particular at #2. Clemson's scoring D is 15th and their offense is 16th, giving them the advantage as Auburn ranks only 68th.

Yardage analysis: Clemson 17   Auburn 14    

By yardage and yardage alone, the result is almost the same. Auburn ranks 4th in total yardage yielded (adjusted for their schedule, of course) and still 68th on offense. Clemson's defense ranks 12th and their offense 46th. Since their scoring offense is 16th, this means they're getting points at a better rate than their yardage would project; their excellent turnover margin might have something to do with it.

When Auburn has the ball
Auburn passing offense: #103    Clemson passing defense: #5
Auburn rushing offense: #32      Clemson rushing defense: #35

Clemson's great passing defense won't be utilized much on Monday. Instead the safeties will end up helping out a lot against Auburn's ground attack, which is much better than it ranks in unadjusted yardage.

Of course, Auburn has a brand new offensive coordinator debuting in this game, a guy who ran a spread offense at Troy, so there may be a few tricks up Tommy Tuberville's sleeve to use in jumping-starting this tepid offense. Now, no one would expect Auburn to come out from the gate with a no-huddle spread, but if they fall behind and aren't producing offensively, who's to say?

When Clemson has the ball
Clemson passing offense: #52  Auburn passing defense: #6
Clemson rushing offense: #38  Auburn rushing defense: #13

Cullen Harper is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country. Probably because there was such a glut of quality at that position, few noticed that he racked up 27 touchdowns while throwing only 6 interceptions, number comparable to Tim Tebow's. Still, Clemson doesn't over-emphasize the pass, preferring a balanced attack, which is good because Auburn has a top ten pass defense. Their rush defense is a bit more vulnerable, but not much. Clemson is going to have to mix it up and see what works, and 3rd downs will be frequent and as always, crucial.

Pairwise-comparison win %
Auburn                   43
Clemson                 57

Clemson had several big games that rate very well, giving them the slight edge when comparing games pair-by-pair. But each had their relative ups and downs this season.

Clemson's key games
Wins over bowl teams(4): Wake Forest 44-10; Florida State 24-18; C. Michigan 70-14; @Maryland 30-17
Losses (3): @Georgia Tech 13-3; #13 Boston College 20-17; #5 Virginia Tech 41-23

Clemson crushed a couple of pretty good teams this year, beating Wake Forest 44-10 and demolishing Central Michigan 70-14. Their only loss to a non-ranked team came at Georgia Tech, who still finished 7-5 and made a bowl game.

Auburn's key games
Wins over bowl teams(3): @#11 Florida 20-17; @Arkansas 9-7; Alabama 17-10
Losses (4): Mississippi State 19-14; #17 South Florida 26-23ot; @#8 Georgia 45-20; @#3 LSU 30-24

Auburn opened the year 1-2 and wholly unimpressive in losing to South Florida and Mississippi State. But what no one really knew was how good USF was, and that MSU was on their way to a bowl win. Two games later the Tigers upset Florida, and by the time they beat Arkansas they were back in the top 25 at 5-2.

Their next game was a heartbreaker at LSU, losing on a last-few-seconds touchdown pass. Another loss to Georgia left them 7-4, though they closed out the year by beating Alabama. Overall, a Tiger season that looked like a series of upsets doesn't look too shocking in retrospect. The road win over Florida and the home loss to MSU were upsets to be sure, but Auburn probably ended up with the record they deserved.

Psychology

Both programs are in the same spot: hoping to regain former glory. For Auburn that glory was a lot more recent in the past, and their 8-4 year is somewhat of a disappointment. Clemson, although generally pleased to be 9-3, hoped this could be the year they won the ACC. Just avoiding a late-season slump is an accomplishment though, and this season has worked out better than the last several. Give Clemson the slight edge here.

Final analysis

These are two good teams, both with great defenses. Games like this one are very hard to reliably pick, since in a low-scoring affair every touchdown is that much more important.

Clemson does have the ability to put up a lot of points, and even against good teams. Auburn doesn't really do that, but even when they lose they don't lose by a lot. It's hard to imagine either team running away with the game. And psychology and emotion looks to be a non-factor, or at least unquantifiable. That leaves a close game.

And close, low-scoring games are often decided by field goals. Whoever makes them, wins. Clemson kicker Mark Buchholz has made 63% of his, while Auburn freshman Wes Byrum has made 76% of his.

Though a freshman, Byrum performed like a veteran. He made a memorable 43-yarder—twice—to beat Florida, even after Urban Meyer tried to "ice" him by calling a last-instant time out while the first attempt sailed through the uprights. Undaunted, he nailed the second one.

Buchholz has contributed to a couple of Clemson losses with his misses in low-scoring games. In Clemson's 13-3 loss to Georgia Tech, he was only 1 of 5. Three of those were from 48 or more yards, but Clemson may need those against a team like Auburn. Likewise, his 2 long misses against Boston College were greater than the difference in the final score. He did win the South Carolina game with a kick at the end, but he had 2 other misses that day.

So the kicking contest comes down to one player (Buchholz) who is called on a lot to kick long field goals, and can make them, but often misses; and another, who kicks less frequently but is more accurate (mostly because of the shorter attempts). Since I'm not sure how reliably Clemson will move the move against the Auburn D, Buchholz will probably get the chance to attempt some long ones, and he'll make some but miss others. Byrum will kick less often but ultimately win the game for the (Auburn) Tigers.

Prediction: Auburn 17  Clemson 16

Music City Bowl preview - Florida State vs. Kentucky

Monday Dec. 31: Music City Bowl in Nashville 4:00pm eastern

Florida State (7-5) vs. Kentucky (7-5)

This game became interesting for reasons that no one expected. The question is: just how bad will Florida State be without 36 players from its roster?

Vegas line: Kentucky by 9

Kentucky opened as a 2 point favorite; then the line was suspended along with 36 Florida State players. When it reopened the Wildcats were favored by 6 and it has grown since. I'm not sure anyone knows exactly what FSU will look like on Monday.

Pts. Power Rating: Kentucky 31   Florida State 24   

This projection is made using the game results from the season, and of course doesn't take any missing players into account. Still, Kentucky comes out the better team, ranking an impressive 11th on offense and 58th on defense. FSU's defense is sound at #23, but their offense has had its ups and downs, mostly downs, and ranks 76th in adjusted scoring.

Yardage analysis: Kentucky 32    Florida State 24   

Not much difference here. Apparently yardage tells the story for these teams pretty similarly to ultimate game score. Kentucky is 17th in adjusted yardage on offense and 66th on defense, while FSU is 76th offensively and 44th defensively.

When Florida State has the ball
Florida State passing offense: #48    Kentucky passing defense: #36
Florida State rushing offense: #76    Kentucky rushing defense: #76

Evenly matched when FSU runs the ball—and has its normal staff of players. Normally you could expect the Seminoles to have some success mixing the run and pass. Who knows what they'll do in reality.

When Kentucky has the ball
Kentucky passing offense: #22  Florida State passing defense: #73
Kentucky rushing offense: #45  Florida State rushing defense: #38

Kentucky is always going to pass the ball a lot, and would of course do the same against the Seminoles relatively weak pass defense. We can assume their running game will have additional success, too.

Pairwise-comparison win %
Florida State           32.6
Kentucky                 67.4

Remarkably, Kentucky's game performances are overwhelmingly better than Florida State's. Kentucky did have some impressive wins and did well in some losses, but I wouldn't have expected these figures. It almost looks like what I'd expect if it could take the 36 missing players into consideration...

Kentucky's key games
Wins over bowl teams(3): #3 LSU 43-37ot; @Arkansas 42-29; Florida Atlantic 45-17
Losses (5): @South Carolina 38-23; Miss. State 31-14; Tennessee 52-50ot; #11 Florida 45-37; @#8 Georgia 24-13

The UK season can be summed up by "what might have been." Starting 6-1 and scoring 40+ points in all their wins, Kentucky came up big upsetting Louisville, Arkansas, and finally LSU in triple overtime, with Andre Woodson performing like the Heisman front-runner that he was at the time. Their next game was a back and forth battle against Florida, with Kentucky coming up just short.

Things fell apart from there. An upset loss to Mississippi State, a close call vs. Vanderbilt, a loss to Georgia and a triple overtime disappointment against Tennessee closed out what became a tough year rather than a breakthrough. Their last convincing win was in September.

In hindsight none of their losses looks all that bad; Mississippi State became a bowl team, and South Carolina was a very good team in the first half of the season—much like Kentucky.

Florida State's key games
Wins over bowl teams(4): @#13 Boston College 27-17; @Colorado 16-6; Alabama 21-14; Maryland 24-16
Losses (5): Miami 37-29; @Wake Forest 24-21; @#23 Clemson 24-18; @#11 Florida 45-12; @#5 Virginia Tech 40-21

FSU had one impressive upset and one poor loss. They were the first team to defeat Boston College, and did so on the road; this win came just two weeks after rival Miami beat them in a sloppy game in Tallahassee.

Other than that, they lost four games to bowl teams, three of them ranked. Florida and Virginia Tech took them apart, while Clemson and Wake Forest won close games in which FSU beat themselves to a certain extent. Their best wins other than B.C. were over 6-6 teams, but the near-shutout of Colorado was a great defensive performance and the Alabama win was before the Tide's collapse.

Psychology

Before the announcement that Florida State would be missing 36 players, the majority due to a cheating scandal, FSU seemed to have the emotional advantage by default. Not that the Seminoles are happy to have finished 7-5 this year, but because Kentucky looked to be a lot better than 7-5 before their season fell apart.

Now we have two teams, neither of whom is particularly happy to be where they are, and one of whom is essentially 2/3 of a team.

Final analysis

All of the previous analysis is meaningless as it compares Kentucky to a version of the Florida State Seminoles that ceased to exist as of the cheating scandal announcement. We have to assume that the 'Noles will play a lot closer to the bottom of their spectrum than the average.

Losing 5 players here and there, like several other teams did for the bowl games, may or may not have a major effect on a team. Losing 36 players is such a huge loss it can't be quantified. In years past, during the entire decade of the 90s, the Seminoles might be able to fill these spots and not take a deadly hit, essentially allowing future superstars an early chance to shine.

But the 90s FSU wouldn't have been playing in this bowl. Now their current players are by and large unpredictable in terms of performance, so what can be said of the underclassmen backups that will be playing for the team on Monday? Even without the announcement, I would have considered picking Kentucky. Though strange things happen—as we've seen all year—I just don't see how this can't be a huge blow to the 'Noles on both side of the ball. As the game continues, we'll probably see the effect grow worse, too.

Prediction: Kentucky 38   Florida State 17 

Humanitarian Bowl preview - Fresno State vs. Georgia Tech

Monday Dec. 31: Humanitarian Bowl in Boise 2:00pm eastern

Fresno State (8-4) vs. Georgia Tech (7-5)

Not the most anticipated bowl of the season, nor the most desirable location. The field looks cool on tv, though.

Vegas line: Georgia Tech by 6

The line moved to 6 from opening at 4 1/2.

Pts. Power Rating: Georgia Tech 29   Fresno State 23   

Georgia Tech's scoring offense and Fresno State's scoring defense match up perfectly at 73rd each. The Yellow Jackets have the advantage in the other matchup, with their defense ranking 24th vs. Fresno's offensive ranking of 66th.

Yardage analysis: Georgia Tech 31   Fresno State 24   

A very similar result occurs when converting projected yardage into a projected score. In adjusted yardage, Tech's offense ranks 56th and their defense is 42nd, while the Bulldogs offense is 60th and defense 79th.

When Fresno State has the ball
Fresno State passing offense: #79    Georgia Tech passing defense: #72
Fresno State rushing offense: #31    Georgia Tech rushing defense: #36

Anything could happen when the Bulldogs are on offense. The Georgia Tech defense is good where Fresno State is good, deficient where the Bulldogs are questionable. This should lead to an "average" amount of success by Fresno State, but they might excel or perform dismally in one or the other category. The deciding factor will likely be turnovers and big plays, i.e. things that the "averages" can't account for very well.

Note that Tech's raw NCAA ranking (12th) against the run is misleading. They've faced several teams that can't run the ball at all, notably in their first three games (Notre Dame, Division I-AA Samford, and Boston College). Likewise, Fresno State is not as good running the ball as their raw ranking (17th) would imply.

When Georgia Tech has the ball
Georgia Tech passing offense: #87  Fresno State passing defense: #21
Georgia Tech rushing offense: #25  Fresno State rushing defense: #103

Sadly for Fresno, they don't match up defensively with the Yellow Jackets. Tech's forte (aka Tashard Choice) is Fresno's Achilles heel, as Tech wants to run the ball and the Bulldogs aren't good at stopping it. Their best bet is to work hard to force passing downs and go for turnovers when Georgia Tech chooses to pass.

Pairwise-comparison win %
Fresno State                 34
Georgia Tech                66

So many of Georgia Tech's losses were close games against good teams that they rate well in these, too, and thus have a decided advantage when game-quality is compared across all combinations. Both teams were fairly consistent, not playing too far above or below their normal state.

Georgia Tech's key games
Wins over bowl teams(1): #23 Clemson 13-3
Losses (5): @Maryland 28-26; @#15 Virginia 28-23; #13 Boston College 24-10; #8 Georgia 31-17; #5 Virginia Tech 27-3

The Yellow Jackets beat six Division I-A teams, but only one foe that's going to a bowl game. Their other wins ranged from blowouts of Notre Dame and Army to close contests with Miami and North Carolina.

They lost a close game at Maryland, missing a field goal with a minute left. Their other four losses were to ranked teams. The Virginia contest was very close, and they stayed with Georgia for most of the game.

Fresno State's key games
Wins over bowl teams (1): @Nevada 49-41
Losses (4): @Texas A&M 47-45ot; @Oregon 52-21; #20 Boise State 34-21; @#2 Hawaii 37-30

Fresno State beat as many bowl teams as Georgia Tech, but their win was over Nevada rather than Clemson. Since Nevada lost their bowl game and fell to 6-7, that means all the Bulldogs' wins are over teams with losing records.

But all of their losses are to bowl teams. They lost a squeaker to Texas A&M, and of course lost at Oregon as Dennis Dixon and Jonathan Stewart ran all over them. They played Boise State pretty well, and gave Hawaii one of its many scares as they mounted a failed comeback attempt in Honolulu.

Psychology

People joke about this bowl, and its location. It's not considered a great reward to go to Boise to play on the last day of December. How are both teams feeling about it?

Georgia Tech has a new coach after this season, but not for this game. ex-Navy coach Paul Johnson will take over next year, but for now it'll be defensive coordinator Jon Tenuta leading the team. Having your coach fired at the end of your season doesn't inspire teams very much in general.

Fresno State turned around from last year's aberrant 4-8 record. Part of that turnaround was due to an easier schedule; only two other WAC teams managed overall winning records, and the Bulldogs faced Division I-AA Sacramento State instead of LSU. Still, they beat all the teams they were supposed to this season. 

Final analysis

Neither team has a great track record of beating quality opposition. Between them they beat one team with a winning record. That Georgia Tech win, over Clemson, is far better than anyone the Bulldogs beat.

By most indicators, Georgia Tech should win this game. Vegas says so, computer projections say so; they've played better in the majority of their games than Fresno has, and they should have no trouble moving the ball on offense. The wild card is when Fresno State is on offense.

If they come out on fire and Tech is flat, their offense could break the statistical logjam of parity they have when compared against the Yellow Jacket defense. If they find a way to keep the defense off balance, and manage to have success both running and passing, then not only will they score points but they'll energize their defense and keep it rested by sustaining long drives.

The question is, will this happen? Is there any major reason to think that the game will go other than as expected? Perhaps Fresno State will be more "up" for the game, and Georgia Tech a bit down. But I'm not certain that's the case, nor that it would necessarily affect the outcome.

As it stands, Georgia Tech should be able to run the ball on the Bulldogs, and the Bulldogs may or may not be able to run and pass effectively against the Yellow Jackets. I'll take the near-certain thing over the possible thing, and go with the consensus, hedged just a bit toward the Bulldogs.

Prediction: Georgia Tech 30    Fresno State 27

Sun Bowl preview - South Florida vs. Oregon

Monday Dec. 31: Sun Bowl in El Paso 2:00pm eastern

#17 South Florida (9-3) vs. Oregon (8-4)

A game that would have been a great matchup. Like any bowl, it still could be an interesting game, but it's hard to watch Oregon without wondering what might have been.

Vegas line: South Florida by 6

The line opened at 6 1/2. Given Oregon's performance in their last three games, I wonder why the line is not wider, but Vegas usually knows what they're doing...

Pts. Power Rating: South Florida 33   Oregon 32   

At their peak Oregon rated third in the nation by score-based power ratings. Since then they've slid out of the top ten, but still are within a point of highly-rated USF. It clearly doesn't reflect the team's current state, however. South Florida's offense is 7th and Oregon's 8th, while the Bulls' defense is 13th to the Ducks' 38th.

Yardage analysis: Oregon 36.5   South Florida 31

Oregon comes out on top by yardage, averaging 4th in total offense and 39th in defense. The offense figure reflects the 9 games they played with Dennis Dixon more than the three in which he was gone. South Florida is 20th and 24th by yardage gained and yielded; they are probably below average at scoring in the red zone and better than normal at defending in it.

When South Florida has the ball
South Florida passing offense: #53    Oregon passing defense: #82
South Florida rushing offense: #14    Oregon rushing defense: #22

The Bulls have a solid running game, with quarterback Matt Grothe leading the way with over 800 yards. All backs included, USF has well over 2,000 yards of rushing offense. Oregon's defense in that category isn't bad, so defending the run/pass option on Grothe will determine their success in stopping USF. Unfortunately for them, Grothe passes well enough that Oregon's pass defense will have its hands full.

When Oregon has the ball
Oregon passing offense: #55  South Florida passing defense: #50
Oregon rushing offense: #6  South Florida rushing defense: #25

Jonathan Stewart should be fully healthy for the game, which is good news for Oregon's offense. Of course the running game won't be the same without Dennis Dixon, nor will the passing game. And Dixon was more than the sum of his running and passing numbers; he made everything work better, because teams could never fully defend one or the other with him as a running threat.

They won't have that with whoever is their starter for the game. They will become a standard, split offense, running on some plays and passing on others, as called. Stewart is good, but USF has shown the ability to shut down good runners (Kevin Smith 55 yds.), though some (Ray Rice 181yds.) have put up good numbers. Their pass defense should be capable of handling the 4th or 5th stringer Oregon throws at them.

Pairwise-comparison win %
South Florida        47.9
Oregon                 52.1

These figures are undoubtedly worthless as they include nine Oregon games with Dixon as leader. The last three games Oregon played were worse than any of South Florida's outings.

South Florida's key games
Wins over bowl teams(4): #9 West Virginia 21-13; #24 UCF 64-12; @Auburn 26-23ot; @FL-Atlantic 35-23
Losses (3): @Rutgers 30-27; @#16 Connecticut 22-15; #14 Cincinnati 38-33

USF wrote its own chapter in the wild 2007 college football season. Pulling one of the early upsets (though not in retrospect) over Auburn, they followed it up with a win over West Virginia. Perhaps even topping that one was a 64-12 thrashing of Conference USA champ UCF. All of this put South Florida in an unlikely position: #2 in the national polls.

Which turned out to be a bad spot for any team this year. USF suffered three straight losses and fell out of most polls. A lot of this was because pollsters felt "burned" by South Florida—many didn't think they should have been ranked so high and saw these losses as proof.

But at that point in the season there weren't many teams to choose from. The Bulls had more quality wins at the time than any other undefeated team. Likewise, the three losses were all to good teams, in very close games, with two of the three on the road. If USF flew too high in the polls, then they also fell too hard.

They didn't get much chance to redeem themselves, with only Syracuse, Pitt, and a disappointing Louisville left on the slate. Looking back on their schedule, there's no doubt they belong in the top 25, and higher than the AP currently has them (23rd). Against any team in the nation, USF would at least play them close.

Oregon's key games
Wins over bowl teams(5): #10 USC 24-17; #18 ASU 35-23; @Michigan 39-7; Fresno State 52-21; Houston 48-27
Losses (4): @Arizona 34-24; California 31-24; Oregon State 38-31ot; @UCLA 16-0

The line above marked "wins", and the "losses" below it, could pretty much be re-titled With Dennis Dixon and Without. All of the impressive wins—over the two ranked teams, the shelling of Michigan in Ann Arbor—happened when Oregon had its MVP on hand. Once he was hurt (re-injured actually) against Arizona, the team fell apart and lost its last three.

The loss to California came when Cal was playing like a top ten team. Arizona and even Oregon State wouldn't have stood a chance with the real Oregon, and the UCLA shutout made it very clear that this was a completely different team when Dixon wasn't there.

Psychology

Can Oregon function without their leader? So far, the answer is no. I don't see any reason for that to change because of a month off.

How does South Florida feel about this game? Midway through the season, they expected a lot more, probably. But the program's only been around for a dozen years or so. This is the most prominent bowl they've been to.

Final analysis

None of the offensive numbers or scoring data mean anything concerning Oregon. They aren't the same team at all that put up 3/4 of those numbers. So those analyses will have to be ignored. If we separate just the last three games out to get a feel for how good the "new" Oregon is, we get a final score of USF 38, Oregon 15.

Oregon's quarterback predicament hasn't gotten any better, as their 2nd and 3rd stringers won't be available either. Regardless, the Ducks are a spent force without Dixon. Though the rest of the team was good and formed the best offense in the country, they've forgotten that fact. Maybe the time off will allow them to consider their new reality, not worry about what might have been, and make the best of this bowl game. And they did get one piece of good news: their coach is staying with them.

But USF is good enough to beat almost any team in the country, and under these circumstances, I have to believe they'll put the Ducks away pretty easily.

Prediction: South Florida 35  Oregon 20

Independence Bowl results - final score: Alabama 30, Colorado 24

The Tide rolled one last time this season, handing Colorado a defeat the Independence bowl after racking up an ultimately insurmountable lead in the first half and holding on to win 30-24.

Alabama started strong, going up 20-0 in the first quarter and 27-0 before two Cody Hawkins TD passes cut the lead to 13 at the half. 'Bama quarterback John Parker Wilson had three touchdown passes in the first half for Alabama.

After trading field goals with Alabama, the Buffaloes cut the lead to six on Hawkin's third TD pass, his second to Tyson DeVree, with four minutes left.

But the Crimson Tide made two first downs and punted from midfield, leaving Colorado only one second in which to score from their 20, and there was no "Trinity Tigers" miracle at the end of this game.

With the win, Alabama recovers somewhat from its end-of-year slump that saw it losing to Louisiana-Monroe, and they finish with a winning record at 7-6. Colorado falls to 6-7, still much improved from last year's 2-10 debacle.

Bowl tally: 9-6 picking winners.

Armed Forces Bowl preview: Air Force vs. California

Monday Dec. 31: Armed Forces Bowl in Fort Worth 12:30pm eastern

#25 Air Force (9-3) vs. California (6-6)

An up-and-coming Air Force under first-year coach Troy Calhoun pits its option offense against a California team that fell from #2 in the nation to a 6-6 record. Can Cal regain the magic?

Vegas line: California by 4

The line has held steady.

Pts. Power Rating: California 27   Air Force 25   

Cal rates about a 2.5 point favorite with the entire season averaged. They lead the Falcons slightly in both adjusted scoring offense (#39 to #55) and defense (#44 to #45).

Yardage analysis:  California 33   Air Force 27   

By adjusted yardage gained and yielded the result is mostly the same, though Air Force's offense rates higher (28th) and defense lower (61st) than when measured by scoring. The Bears' offense and defense both look better at 32nd and 23rd.

When Air Force has the ball
Air Force passing offense: #119    California passing defense: #32
Air Force rushing offense: #4         California rushing defense: #37

Stopping Air Force's air attack is not going to be California's concern; the Eagles rank nearly last in Division I-A in passing because their option offense is almost completely run-oriented. The Golden Bears have a decent but vulnerable rushing defense, and it will be put to the test.

When California has the ball
California passing offense: #50   Air Force passing defense: #97
California rushing offense: #26    Air Force rushing defense: #40

The Bears run the ball well with Justin Forsett, but they can also take advantage of Air Force's poor pass defense, and a now-healthy DeSean Jackson is always a threat.

Pairwise-comparison win %
Air Force                 42.4
California                57.6

California had a lot of good games in the first half of the season, enough to put them ahead of Air Force on balance when comparing game performances. Air Force was mostly consistent, not having many bad outings, nor any truly spectacular ones.

California's key games
Wins over bowl teams(2): @Oregon 31-24; Tennessee 45-31
Losses (6): @Stanford 20-13; @Washington State 20-17; @UCLA 30-21; Oregon State 31-28; @#18 Arizona State 31-20; USC 24-17

Cal's season is as perplexing as UCLA's, but is more neatly divided into halves. Starting 5-0, they reached #2 in the polls before everything started to go wrong. They beat Tennessee to kick off the year and during their winning stretch they were the only squad to beat a full-strength Oregon team. On the road, too.

Then the losses started coming and they finished 1-6. The first two losses—to Oregon State and UCLA—surprised people. The next two, to ASU and USC, were more or less expected, and were close games to good teams. But the final two, to Washington and Stanford, showed how far this once-great team had fallen by the close of the season.

Air Force's key games
Wins over bowl teams(2): @Utah 20-12; Texas Christian 20-17
Losses (3): @Navy 31-20; @New Mexico 34-31; @#19 Brigham Young 31-6

Much less substance to Air Force's highlights, reflecting their easier schedule—and fewer losses. Both their best wins came early in the year; their later victims included the likes of Army and Notre Dame as well as the bottom half of the Mountain West. They finished by winning 6 of 7, but this was more due to scheduling than any drastic improvement in the team.

They lost only on the road, and each time to a bowl team. Only BYU took them out of a game completely.

Psychology

Air Force definitely has the emotional edge going into this game. Just looking at the two teams' records last year, and expectations for this year, you wouldn't have believed they would be matched in a bowl game by season's end.

Last season Air Force was 4-8 while Cal went 10-3. Indeed, the last three years running the Falcons have had either 4 or 5 wins, while the Bears have had 8 or 10. California went to a bowl game every year from 2003 to 2006; Air Force hasn't played post-season since 2002.

Add this all up, throw in Cal's 2nd-half swoon and Air Force's solid finish, and the Falcons should have a decided mental edge. Whether that translates into a material edge is the question.

Final analysis

Injuries that plagued Cal and initially set into motion their decline will be healed after a month off. But injuries alone can't explain their play in the last two games. Mental attitude doesn't heal as fast as most physical injuries, either, and Cal's got to harbor a lot of disappointment about how this year turned out.

The Bears are still capable of being dangerous. If DeSean Jackson and Justin Forsett have big games then Air Force is in trouble. Though it would be a surprise to see the team return to the level of play it reached early in the year, it isn't out of the question. Not likely, but not impossible.

California's team in the 1st half of the season (5-1) is about 17 points better than their 1-5 2nd-half team. Air Force would probably lose to the former by 11, and beat the latter by about 6.

But Air Force can't count on the end-of-season Cal team showing up. They've had lapses themselves, and they'll have to be in top form to win the game. I don't foresee any problem with their attitude going in; if anything, they might be too hyped up. Troy Calhoun has done an excellend job with them this season and I'm sure he'll manage the team well going into this contest. Jeff Tedford, of course, will do a good job for California, but he's got his work cut out for him with his own squad, let alone worrying about the opponent. That might be too much for any coach to effectively deal with.

Prediction: Air Force 25  California 24

Alamo Bowl results - final score: Penn State 24, Texas A&M 17

Joe Paterno didn't "need a casket", though he might have felt slightly ill when Penn State fell behind by 14 points Saturday evening. But the Nittany Lions rallied to win 24-17 in Paterno's 500th game.

A&M led 14-0 in the first quarter after two Mike Goodson touchdowns. Penn State responded quickly, with Anythony Morelli hitting Deon Butler for a 30 yard score and Daryll Clark running it in from the 11 two minutes later, after a Goodson fumble.

Just like that it was tied up, and a Kevin Kelly field goal made it 17-14 Penn State at the half.

The Aggies tied it with a field goal in the third quarter, but Penn State took the lead back on a 38-yard run by Evan Royster.

There was no score in the fourth quarter. A&M had a 4th-and-1 on the Penn State 2 yard line, but lost yardage on quarterback Stephen McGee's option run.

The Lions stopped the Aggies one more time then ran out the clock, finishing an up and down year on a positive note at 9-4. The Aggies finished 7-6 in a difficult season in which their head coach was fired. Gary Darnell coached the squad for the bowl; Mike Sherman of the Houston Texans will take over for 2008.

Bowl tally: 9-5

Liberty Bowl results - final score: Mississippi State 10, Central Florida 3

Instead of UCF's Kevin Smith basking in glory, it was Mississippi State's coach Sly Croom, who has completed a remarkable turnaround of the Bulldog program, finishing 8-5 this season with a 10-3 win over the Knights.

The Bulldog defense held the nation's leading rusher Kevin Smith to 119 yards, 62 less than he needed to surpass Barry Sanders' 1988 total (for the regular season, as per NCAA recordbook rules). Smith averaged just 34 yards per carry and had no gains over 15 yards. He ends the season with a total of 2,567 yards.

Kyle Israel had even less luck passing for the Knights, finishing 10 of 24 for 88 yards and 3 interceptions, two of them by MVP Derek Pegues. Two missed field goals added to Central Florida's woes. Their play calling was predictable and ineffective, with Smith rushing at the start of every possession for the first three quarters, then switching to passing even when the running game was working, thus stalling drives.

Not that Mississippi State was an offensive machine, either. The Bulldogs had just 39 yards passing, but 160 yards rushing was enough to slog out the win after being tied 3-3 at halftime. Anthony Dixon scored from the 1-yard-line late in the fourth quarter. Four Israel passes later the game was over.

Sylvester Croom took over the Mississippi State program in 2004 and struggled through three 3-win seasons before this year. Central Florida finishes 10-4 and won't get a top 25 ranking, but they were the Conference-USA champion.

Bowl tally: 9-4

Meineke Bowl results - final score: Wake Forest 24, Connecticut 10

Wake Forest beat Connecticut Saturday, scoring 24 unanswered points in the second half after being shut out in the first. The game was closer than the final score indicates, but Connecticut never was able to mount a challenge.

Wake emphasized the pass but had enough success rushing to run out the clock at the end with a long touchdown drive that capped the game.

Connecticut scored first on a 68 yard punt return and added a field goal as Wake mistakes cancelled scoring opportunities. They fumbled a ball at the 2 yard line stretching for goal in the 3rd quarter, but stuffed Connecticut back to the one yard line and forced a punt.

Connecticut failed to convert a 4th down from the Wake 40 yard line with 10 minutes remaining, and never came close to scoring after that.

At 9-4, Wake Forest will very likely make the top 25 after beating a strong Connecticut team. UConn, also finishing 9-4, may remain in the SportsRatings top 25 as well. The Huskies are one of the great turnaround stories of 2007 after winning only four games in 2006.

Bowl tally: 9-3 vs. winners so far.

Independence Bowl preview - Alabama vs. Colorado

Sunday Dec. 30: Independence Bowl in Shreveport 8:00pm eastern

Colorado (6-6) vs. Alabama (6-6)

The best thing about a bowl game between 6-6 teams is that one of them is guaranteed a winning season.

Vegas line: Alabama by 3 1/2

The line has remained steady at 3 1/2 points.

Pts. Power Rating: Alabama 27   Colorado 24   

Alabama's and Colorado's scoring offense are roughly the same, ranking 48th and 44th, but the Tide's defense is 27th to the Buffaloes' 54th, making them a three point favorite.

Yardage analysis: Colorado 24   Alabama 23   

Colorado, though, is slightly ahead if adjusted rushing/passing yards are compared, with their offense ranking 45th and defense 36th, compared to 'Bama's 53rd and 30th. Very close.

When Colorado has the ball
Colorado passing offense: #41    Alabama passing defense: #78
Colorado rushing offense: #47    Alabama rushing defense: #17

The Buffaloes haven't looked great on offense, but they've faced some tough defenses; they're actually a bit above average and balanced in their attack. Alabama shouldn't have too many big holes for the rushing attack, but the improving passing game could have some success, and hopefully convert some third downs which has been their foil this year.

When Alabama has the ball
Alabama passing offense: #59  Colorado passing defense: #33
Alabama rushing offense: #50  Colorado rushing defense: #48

The Crimson Tide is also mediocre and balanced on offense. The difference is the Colorado defense is also balanced in its ability to stop offenses. Alabama will have more luck with the run, and probably try to establish it to help out the passing game.

Pairwise-comparison win %
Colorado                 46.5
Alabama                 53.5

Alabama had a lot of good games in the first half of the season, enough to put them ahead of Colorado on balance when comparing game performances. Both teams faced ups and downs, and the game will turn depending on which version of each squad shows up.

Alabama's key games
Wins over bowl teams(3): Tennessee 41-17; Arkansas 41-38; Houston 30-24
Losses (6): LA-Monroe 21-14; @Miss St. 17-12; @FSU 21-14; @Auburn 17-10; #8 Georgia 26-23ot; #4 LSU 41-34

The Crimson Tide season was as up and down as anyone's this side of UCLA. A big win over Arkansas was followed by close losses to Georgia and FSU. No problem: Three straight wins, including a bashing of Tennesee, put them at 6-2 ready to face LSU. That game was Alabama's turning point.

They came up just short of beating the best team in the SEC, and fell apart thereafter. As bad as the loss to Mississippi State was, next week's loss to Sun Belt cupcake Louisiana-Monroe—at home—gave away the fact that something was drastically wrong in Tuscaloosa. Auburn was their fourth straight loss to close the year.

Aside from the Lousiana-Monroe debacle, things don't look so bad. Three wins over bowl teams, and every loss by 7 points or less. But the trend at the end was not good.

Colorado's key games
Wins over bowl teams(2): #3 Oklahoma 27-24; @Texas Tech 31-26
Losses (6): @Iowa State 31-28; @Kansas State 47-20; Florida State 16-6; #6 Missouri 55-10; @#18 Arizona State 33-14; #7 Kansas 19-14

Colorado pulled major upsets and was the victim of at least one. After losing two games which in retrospect look not so bad, the Buffaloes won three straight including the shocker of their season, a win over Oklahoma, who had until that point looked invincible. They were then crushed by Kansas State, a team that was playing well until later in the season.

They battled Kansas to a 19-14 loss, the Jayhawks closest margin of the season, and then surprised Texas Tech on the road. After being drubbed by top ten Missouri, they had their only truly unexpected loss, to Iowa State. But they followed it up with a spirited road win over Nebraska to become bowl eligible.

Psychology

Reviewing their seasons, it seems inescapable that Colorado is having some fun this year playing football, while Alabama is decidedly not. While that alone can't win games, it can be a mental factor separating two basically even teams.

Alabama came into the year with a new coach and new attitude, and for a while it seemed to be working. But right when they hit an emotional stress point—the near-win over LSU—everything fell apart, and the Tide became worse each game. Several articles have been written about the team and how the older players are not "getting with the program" under Nick Saban. This year is starting to match last year's season-ending slump to a 'T'.

Colorado's first year under coach Dan Hawkins was no picnic, with the Buffaloes going 2-10. But this year showed progress. They still had breakdowns like last year, but in retrospect their season was a lot more consistent than it first appeared. And the team seemed to have an attitude of not giving up that often comes from their coach. Facing the daunting task of playing Oklahoma, Colorado responded with a win after being down 24-7. Down 11 at the half against Nebraska, they scored 35 straight points and sailed to victory. This is a team with a resilient attitude.

Final analysis

Alabama's season is sliding into oblivion. Can they really pull it together and win their bowl game? It's possible, since they are at least as good as the Buffaloes, and in the first part of the season they were quite a bit better. But since their slump they haven't played like that team. A month off can make a big difference, but all in all I think the odds say they won't recover.

If they play like they did in their final three games, Alabama will lose to Colorado. The Tide defense never fell apart, so I shouldn't predict a runaway score for the Buffaloes, but sometimes bowl games become blowouts even between evenly matched teams.

Prediction: Colorado 35  Alabama 14

Kevin Smith - Will he make it? (Barry Sanders' record)

The answer: probably not. But we'll find out in a couple hours.

When Central Florida's Kevin Smith ended the year will 2,448 yards, needing only 181 to surpass Barry Sanders' single-season rushing record (minus Sanders bowl yardage, of course, which does not count under the rules), it seemed a foregone conclusion that Smith would do it. After all, he's averaging 188 yards per game, and with the additional motivation from him and his teammates, putting him over the top seemed likely. While UCF had a great year, going 10-3, they weren't expected to draw a highly ranked team as an opponent in the Liberty Bowl.

Then the pairings were announced. It's true, they didn't draw a highly ranked team, but Mississippi State has a decent rushing defense, 45th in the country in adjusted yards yielded. Which is not stellar but is better than most of the teams that Central Florida has faced:

  UCF opponent        Smith yds   rush def. rank
North Carolina State      217         #91
Texas                     149         #13
Memphis                   124         #110
Louisiana-Lafayette       223         #117
East Carolina             147         #47
South Florida              55         #24
Tulsa                     170         #96
Southern Miss             175         #58
Marshall                  188         #82
UAB                       320         #120
Southern Methodist        177         #105
UTEP                      219         #116
Tulsa                     284         #96
Mississippi State                     #45

By the adjusted yardage averages, UCF should have 194 rushing yards against MSU. Smith has 77% of UCF's total, so if that holds, Smith would gain 149 yards for the game, putting him 32 shy of the record. It's likely that, if he came that close, the Knights would run Smith as much as they need to get him over the top. But if the game is close, which it should be, they'll have to take what they can get.

The estimate of 149 yards—considering Mississippi State's #45 ranking—jibes with Smith's 147 yard effort against East Carolina, who is #47 in rushing defense. Additionally, the Bulldogs have shown the ability to stop some pretty good runners:

  Player                  yds     nat. rank
Jacob Hester, LSU         68       64th
Matt Forte, Tulane        47        2nd
Arian Foster, Tenn.      139       45th
Steve Slaton, WVA        127       47th
Patrick White, WVA        89       34th
Terry Grant, Alabama      75       55th
Darren McFadden, Ark      88        4th
Benj. Green-Ellis, Miss  117       38th

The most yards any back managed against Mississippi State this season is 139 by Arian Foster of Tennessee; he was one of only three backs to go over 100 against them. Matt Forte and Darren McFadden each rushed for less than 100 yards on the Bulldogs. Assuming that they keyed on McFadden and Forte due to their threat and importance to the team, it does not bode well for Smith that Mississippi State has shown the ability to stop a back that they focus on.

Given this information, I think Kevin Smith will come close to the 181 yards he needs but not surpass it. Unless he gets a few breakaway touchdown runs he'll get nearly 150 yards, even with the team hoping to help him achieve the goal.

A close game will help in one sense—he won't be pulled early. But he wouldn't be pulled early in any case if he can pass the record. A really close game—going into overtime—would give him an even better chance of getting 181+ yards.

Emerald Bowl results - final score: Oregon State 21, Maryland 14

As expected, Maryland couldn't run the ball against Oregon State, netting only 19 yards against the Beavers. Oregon State had a lot more success on the ground, with Yvenson Bernard gaining 177 yards and James Rodgers adding another 115.

Maryland stayed close the only way they could: forcing turnovers and capitalizing on Beaver mistakes, of which there were plenty, including a terrible pass intercepted in the end zone and a fumble by Rodgers, plus penalties and defensive lapses. The Terps found Dar Hayward-Bay for a 63-yard touchdown pass in the 1st quarter as they took a 14-7 lead, but it would be their last score.

Oregon State settled down and took over in the second half, controlling the game and running out the clock, while the defense shut down the run that Maryland stubbornly kept attempting.

The Terrapins end with a 6-7 record while Oregon State improves to 9-4, and has a slim chance on sneaking into the top 25, as this win doesn't help them too much in that department.

Texas Bowl results - final score: TCU 20, Houston 13

TCU succeeded beyond their wildest expectations in slowing down Anthony Alridge and won the Texas Bowl in Houston. Alridge had only 28 yards Friday evening after averaging 130 this season.

A Houston field goal with 10 seconds left in the half gave the Cougars a 10-7 lead going into the locker room, but the second half was all Horned Frogs. Texas Christian scored on three drives: a third quarter field goal, and a fourth quarter touchdown and field goal to take a 20-10 lead.

T.J. Lawrence hit his second field goal for the Cougars with two minutes left but they didn't get another chance to add to it. Both teams ended the year 8-5.

Bowl tally: 8-3 picking winners. Spread tally has been cancelled due to inclement weather.

Champs Sports bowl results - final score: Boston College 24, Michigan State 21

Brian Hoyer took advantage of a Matt Ryan fumble and got the Spartans close, but he was intercepted on his final chance and the Eagles ran out the clock to win, 24-21.

Ryan's 68-yard TD pass to Rich Gunnell—Gunnell's second TD catch of the night—put Boston College in control, 24-13. The Eagles got the ball back and were in Michigan State territory when Ryan was pressured and fumbled the ball. Two plays later Hoyer was running out of bounds but found Deon Curry in the end zone for a 14 yard TD. The two-point conversion put the Spartans within three.

Michigan State had two more chances but didn't get anything going. The first time they were stopped on downs, the second time Boston College intercepted Hoyer's pass on first down. The Eagles ran out the clock when Matt Ryan got 2 yards on 4th and 1 from Michigan State's 20 yard line.

Ryan was only 21 of 48 for the night with one interception but had three touchdown passes and 240 yards. Hoyer was just 14 of 35, with two touchdowns and four interceptions.

The Spartans racked up over 170 yards rushing on the the Eagles, who have one of the best rushing defenses in the country. The first Michigan State touchdown was set up by Devon Thomas' 78-yard return of the opening kickoff.

The Eagle defense held when it had to, and kept the Spartans out of the end zone for more than 50 minutes between the first score and the mid-4th-quarter TD pass.

Bowl results: winners: 6-3 spread: never mind.

Alamo Bowl preview - Penn State vs. Texas A&M

Saturday Dec. 29: Alamo Bowl in San Antonio 8:00pm eastern

Texas A&M (7-5) vs. Penn State (8-4)

A Big Ten/Big 12 matchup with a team whose coach resigned against a team whose coach will probably be coaching until he's 100.

Vegas line: Penn State by 5

The line opened at 5 1/2 points, and hasn't moved much since Penn State declared 5 players won't make the trip.

Pts. Power Rating: Penn State 27   Texas A&M 23   

Penn State's adjusted scoring offense and defense (at 28th and 21st respectively) both outclass Texas A&M (43rd and 38th). Thus even with a home advantage figured in, the Nittany Lions come out ahead by nearly 3 points.

Yardage analysis: Texas A&M 27   Penn State 26   

But when only yardage is considered it leans slightly toward the Aggies. Looking at yardage stats adjusted for competition, the teams are nearly identical on offense (A&M 43rd, PSU 44th) and Penn State has only a slight edge on defense (32nd to 42nd). Again, once home field is considered it puts A&M over the top, though converting yards to a score is pretty inexact and can be done many ways that will give different results. Texas A&M's total yardage does come out slightly ahead.

When Texas A&M has the ball
Texas A&M passing offense: #82    Penn State passing defense: #98
Texas A&M rushing offense: #11    Penn State rushing defense: #7

The bad news for the Aggies is that Penn State should be able to slow down their running attack, which is their bread and butter. The good news is that the Nittany Lions are vulnerable to the pass, so A&M may have a chance to do some damage through the air that they don't normally do.

When Penn State has the ball
Penn State passing offense: #68  Texas A&M passing defense: #45
Penn State rushing offense: #25  Texas A&M rushing defense: #49

Texas A&M's defense is average against both the pass and run, allowing opponents to pick their favorite plan of attack. The Lions will probably choose to try to establish the run.

Pairwise-comparison win %
Texas A&M                 48.6
Penn State                  51.4

Both teams have had varying performances this year, but A&M's probably span a wider range from good to bad. Comparing each of them in pairs, there are more Penn State winners than A&M winners, but not by much (all of the pairs assume home field for the Aggies).

Penn State's key games
Wins over bowl teams(3): #22 Wisconsin 38-7; @Indiana 36-31; Purdue 26-19
Losses (4): @Michigan State 35-31; @Michigan 14-9; @#12 Illinois 27-20; Ohio State 37-17

Season-opening wins over Florida International, Notre Dame, and Buffalo looked pretty blasé at the time and still do, but the Nittany Lions beat Wisconsin convincingly and all of their losses were to bowl teams. The only game in which they weren't competitive was against #1 Ohio State.

Road games: Penn State went 2-3 on the road, beating only Temple convincingly. They beat Indiana in Bloomington, but were upset by the Spartans in East Lansing after leading most of the game. They did play Michigan and Illinois close on the road, however. In all they probably have the normal road disadvantage.

Texas A&M's key games
Wins over bowl teams(3): #21 Texas 38-30; Fresno State 47-45ot; Oklahoma State 24-23
Losses (5): @Miami 34-17; @Texas Tech 35-7; #7 Kansas 19-11; @#6 Missouri 40-26; @#3 Oklahoma 42-14

After starting 5-1, the Aggies lost 4 of 5, then ended on an up note with their best win against Texas. They lost mostly to ranked teams, but four of the five were by 14 or more points.

Home games: A&M has only had disastrous results when on the road. At home they lost once, to Kansas, and didn't get blown out at all. They had their three best wins at home, even though two of those could easily have turned into losses. It's safe to say they have more than an average home field advantage. However it's not quite a home game in San Antonio.

Psychology

According to StubHub.com, A&M fans will outnumber Nittany Lion fans by an amazing 42 to 1. That may be a bit of an overestimation, but it gives an idea of how fans are still supporting the Aggies in an off year and after losing their coach. The short travel distance compared to Penn State's long haul from College Station is the obvious reason. In any case, the crowd should give the Aggies the feel of a home field advantage.

Penn State may or may not be too pumped up about this bowl game. They'd hoped for a Big Ten championship and BCS bowl as in 2005, but you can't always get what you want. The Michigan State game was a sad end to the year, too. There's a distinct possibility of the Lions going flat. Will the recent remarks by an Aggie "yell leader" make a difference? If it had been a player saying Paterno needed a "casket", it definitely would. But coming from a male cheerleader, I doubt it will have much impact.

Final analysis

Will coaching experience be a factor? Gary Darnell, as interim coach, will be leading the Aggies for the first time. Joe Paterno will be leading a team for his 500th time. Ultimately, the game takes place on the field, not off. In any given game, it's hard to predict the difference coaching will make.

The crowd will be overwhelmingly pro-Aggie, however, making this practically a home game for Texas A&M. Penn State played fairly well on the road, but lost a lot of close games. Texas A&M plays better than average in front of its home crowd, and won a several close games against good teams at home, including the victory over Texas.

From what I'm reading, Penn State doesn't sound too excited about this game. I can't know that for a fact, nor be sure about what this is going to mean come game time, but it's another indication that tips the game in favor of the Aggies, very slightly. Penn State is the better team, but not on Saturday at San Antonio.

Prediction: Texas A&M 21  Penn State 20

Liberty Bowl preview - Central Florida vs. Mississippi State

Saturday Dec. 29: Liberty Bowl in Memphis 4:30pm eastern

Mississippi State (7-5) vs. #24 Central Florida (10-3)

The best team in Conference USA vs. an average SEC team. Is the C-USA getting disrespected or will Sylvester Croom give the Bulldogs their first bowl win in 7 years? Can Kevin Smith break Barry Sanders single-season rushing record? Stay tuned.

Vegas line: Central Florida by 3

The line has remained at 3 points from open.

Pts. Power Rating: Central Florida 29   Mississippi State 26   

Agreeing with Vegas, the Knights are almost exactly a 3 point favorite over the Bulldogs from scoring analysis. Their scoring offense ranks an adjusted #30, their defense #70; Mississippi State's O is far worse at #77 but they have a better defense at #42.

Yardage analysis: Central Florida 17   Mississippi State 14

Still a three point difference when yardages are calculated and rushing/passing offense/defenses are compared. But the scoring is much lower; both teams are better at scoring points than gaining yards, and give up fewer yards than expected from the points they give up. UCF is 72nd in total adjusted yards gained and 40th in yards ceded, while Mississippi State is only 108th in offense, but 22nd defensively.

When Mississippi State has the ball
Mississippi State passing offense: #98    Central Florida passing defense: #67
Mississippi State rushing offense: #78    Central Florida rushing defense: #40

The Bulldogs don't have a reputation for having an explosive offense. UCF's defense is not a world beater, but it's good enough to match up well with Mississippi State.

When Central Florida has the ball
Central Florida passing offense: #111  Mississippi State passing defense: #17
Central Florida rushing offense: #13    Mississippi State rushing defense: #45

UCF doesn't pass well but it doesn't usually matter—they have Kevin Smith. Smith, with 2,448 yards this season, needs just 181 to surpass Barry Sanders (minus his bowl game total, of course) for the NCAA record single-season rushing title. The Bulldogs aren't great at stopping the run, but they've done very well against great runners. They held Matt Forte of Tulane to 47 yards (3.4 average) and Darren McFadden to 88 yards (3.1 average). Both of these teams had one-dimensional offenses as well, suggesting that Mississippi State might be able to concentrate on Smith and be effective in slowing him down.

How many yards should we expect of Smith? Well, by the adjusted yardage averages, UCF should have 194 rushing yards against MSU. Smith has 77% of UCF's total, so if that holds, Smith would gain 149 yards for the game, putting him 32 shy of the record. It's likely that, if he came that close, the Knights would run Smith as much as they need to get him over the top. At the same time, as noted above, when they can key on an individual and ignore the passing game the Bulldogs have stopped runners just as good. In fact, only three players rushed for more than 100 yards against MSU.

Pairwise-comparison win %
Mississippi State              41.7
Central Florida               58.3

UCF's performances are on-balance better than Mississippi State's. The Bulldogs have been more up-and-down this year, having some bad games but pulling off several upsets themselves.

Central Florida's key games
Wins over bowl teams(4): Tulsa 44-23; Tulsa 44-25; @Southern Miss 34-17; Memphis 56-20;
Losses (3): @East Carolina 52-38; @#21 Texas 35-32; @#15 South Florida 64-12

UCF beat bowl game losers Southern Miss and Memphis handily, and did a double-take on Tulsa at home by almost the same score both times, but their best game might have been the near-win vs. Texas, which showed why BCS teams don't often venture into mid-major territory. The Knights' other losses weren't as wonderful, falling to East Carolina and getting humiliated by fellow Florida upstart USF.

Overall though UCF is a squad that beat some good competition and only lost to decent teams and never at home.

Mississippi State's key games
Wins over bowl teams(3): @Auburn 19-14; @Kentucky 31-14; Alabama 17-12
Losses (5): @South Carolina 38-21; Tennessee 33-21; @Arkansas 45-31; @#9 West Virginia 38-13; #4 LSU 45-0

When they lost to LSU 45-0 at home to open the season, there was a general consensus that this would be another poor Bulldog team. Even in that loss, however, there were signs of resilience; the Tigers seemed stymied at times, and the lead came slowly. Eventually outclassed and overpowered, they held back the tide as long as they could and didn't look like the pathetic team they were made out to be.

That game was their worst of the year. Just two weeks later they upset Auburn. South Carolina was playing great football at the time they beat the Bulldogs, and all the other losses were to bowl teams. Back to back upsets of Kentucky and Alabama proved the team had made great progress under Sylvester Croom.

Psychology

Both teams should be proud of their success this season and happy to be continuing it in a bowl game. The game location and strong following of MSU fans should give them a big edge in crowd support, though UCF will have its contingent there and I believe has sold out its allotment as well.

Final analysis

Mississippi State probably can't win this game with their offense. They don't match up well with UCF. They need their defense to do the work for them by slowing down Kevin Smith, stopping UCF in the red zone, and getting turnovers, all things they've done in the past to other teams.

Central Florida's key to victory is to concentrate on winning first, and Kevin Smith's record second. Should they emphasize Smith from the start, the result might be the same as Tulane faced as the Bulldogs shut down Forte and Tulane had no passing game to turn to. By mixing up plays, using other runners and using Smith as a decoy in the first half, UCF might be able to confuse the MSU defense, and then maybe Smith can break free for some big runs.

Since all my score analyses match the Vegas line exactly, UCF by three is what I'm going to have to go with. Mississippi State's defense will be able to keep Smith bottled up for a while, but not completely. Still, he probably won't run wild if the game is close. Central Florida gets its 11th win but Barry has a good chance of keeping his record.

Prediction: Central Florida 23   Mississippi State 20

Meineke Bowl preview - Wake Forest vs. Connecticut

Saturday Dec. 29: Meineke Bowl in Charlotte NC 1:00pm eastern

Wake Forest (8-4) vs. #16 Connecticut (9-3)

A pretty good ACC/Big East battle. The Big East got the short end of the stick, with their co-champ taking on the ACC #5, but the order in the conferences is pretty fluid. Both teams lost at Virginia 17-16, so by that measure it's a perfect match.

Vegas line: Wake Forest by 2

The line opened at 3 1/2.

Pts. Power Rating: Connecticut 23   Wake Forest 23   

The teams rate within 1/3 of a point of each other when giving Wake a home crowd advantage for playing much closer and in state. Their scoring offenses are similar, Wake ranking 49th and UConn 51st, while the Huskies' D is better at #18 than the Deacons' #40.

Yardage analysis: Connecticut 20   Wake Forest 20

Same story with yardage—no clear advantage for either team. Using just rushing and passing yards, adjusted for competition, Wake's offense is only #101 and UConn only #85, with defensives ranking 49th and 62th respectively. Both teams are getting more scoring, and better scoring defense, than their yardage numbers would imply, which points to good special teams, turnovers, etc—everything not encapsulated by rushing and passing yardage. But however it's occurring, it's happening equally for both teams and neither comes up on top based on this analysis, either.

When Wake Forest has the ball
Wake Forest passing offense: #97    Connecticut passing defense: #23
Wake Forest rushing offense: #71    Connecticut rushing defense: #86

Wake Forest had better run the ball, because passing isn't their strong point and defending it is for Connecticut. As West Virginia showed, running the ball on UConn works. Then again, Wake isn't exactly West Virginia when it comes to running the ball. But over the course of the game they can try to tire out the Huskie defense, at which point their tepid but efficient passing game might work better.

When Connecticut has the ball
Connecticut passing offense: #93    Wake Forest passing defense: #93
Connecticut rushing offense: #49    Wake Forest rushing defense: #25

Perfectly matched passing offense to passing defense as well. Wake's rushing defense will look to bottle up Connecticut's ground game, leaving 3rd down conversion attempts that Connecticut has not been very successful with this season.

Pairwise-comparison win %
Wake Forest              47.2
Connecticut               52.8

Finally an indicator that makes a (slight) call. Comparing the teams game-by-game, Connecticut is a few performances better than Wake. Still it shows basically a tossup. This one really depends on whether you give Wake home field advantage, and will come down to emotion, special teams play, and luck.

Connecticut's key games
Wins over bowl teams(2): #17 South Florida 22-15; Rutgers 38-19
Losses (3): @#15 Virginia 17-16; @#14 Cincinnati 27-3; @#9 West Virginia 66-21

The Huskies started off with five wins over pushovers before losing at Virginia by a point. They scored three more victories, including their best win, over South Florida. They lost two of their last three, but both were on the road to ranked foes. The margins were 24 and 45 points, however.

Despite their overall light schedule, Connecticut proved to be a quite consistent team, never losing to a team demonstrably worse than themselves, and beating every team they were supposed to.

Road play: UConn lost only to three ranked teams on the road, and beat one at home, finishing 7-0 in Hartford and 2-3 on the road. The best team they beat on the road was Pitt, whom they handled 34-14.

Wake Forest's key games
Wins over bowl teams(3): Florida State 24-21; @Navy 44-24; Maryland 31-24ot
Losses (4): Nebraska 20-17; @#23 Clemson 44-10; @#15 Virginia 17-16; @#13 Boston College 38-28

After losing their first two games to Boston College and Nebraska, it was an uphill battle for Wake Forest to get respect nationally after their breakout season last year. Six straight wins, including an upset of Florida State, had them poised for the top 25, but another two losses skotched that.

While the Demon Deacons didn't beat any really great teams, they lost only to ranked teams on the road save the early loss to Nebraska, which was played before Wake realized how good they could be and before Nebraska knew how bad they were.

Home games: After the Nebraska game, Wake was perfect at home, but against mostly lesser foes. The two good teams they faced, FSU and Maryland, gave them a run for their money.

Psychology

Connecticut was 4-8 last season, and 9-3 this year. That should override any disappointment they feel for not winning the Big East. They still feel like they have to prove themselves despite their record.

Wake Forest must feel this way too; most of the national press was treating last year's 11-win squad as a fluke, even after this one garnered eight wins in the regular season. Both the ACC and Big East had Rodney Dangerfield syndrome this year.

Wake will be happy that their coach, Jim Grobe, didn't take any of the myriad of open coaching jobs he was being linked to, and they've apparently sold out their allotment of tickets for the nearby bowl. Randy Edsall also considered other coaching offers but stayed with Connecticut.

Final analysis

This might be the closest bowl game on paper. Connecticut has beaten a team as good as Wake Forest, but not away from home. So ceeding home advantage to the Deacons really evens things up. Both teams generally beat the poor-to-good teams they faced and lost to the excellent ones in road games.

Whichever teams wins the turnover battle, particularly interceptions, may control the game. Both teams thrive on taking away the pass, so it's likely to happen, but it's an unpredictable event of course.

Both squads should be "up" for the game. This is a tough one. I really don't know who to pick, but I think it will be close, perhaps as close as each of these teams' games with Virginia, which ended 17-16. Given that both teams lost to Virginia on the road, I should go with the "home" team; plus, Wake was in a big bowl next year, so they have experience on their side.

Prediction: Wake Forest  17  Connecticut 16