Ever since I started posting schedule-adjusted yardage stats, BYU has been at or near the top of the rankings for total yardage difference, that is, when adjusted for opposition they are outgaining their opponents by the most.
In the beginning it seemed odd that the Cougars were so high on the list. After all, they were only 2-2 at the time. I speculated that one thing or other would have to adjust: either BYU was going to start winning games, or their stats would fall into line to more closely match their quality as a team.
Total Yardage Differential (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team Rec Yards Off Def
1. LSU (8-1) 237.6 12 3
2. Brigham Young (6-2) 207.2 9 6
3. Texas Tech (7-3) 199.2 2 25
4. Southern Cal (7-2) 197.5 35 2
5. Oklahoma (8-1) 183.3 21 7
6. Oregon (8-1) 180.4 1 56
7. West Virginia (7-1) 179.9 20 8
8. Ohio State (10-0) 177.8 59 1
9. Arizona St (8-1) 160.5 22 10
10. Missouri (8-1) 156.0 5 47
As it turns out, BYU opted to start winning. Now 6-2, they've maintained their dominating performances yardage-wise while winning games. And their yardage advantage isn't just the product of a freak offense, like #3 Texas Tech's; BYU is in the top ten in both offensive and defensive margins, showing that they're gaining more yardage than their opponents normally give up, and holding their opponents below their average output. No other team has quite this balance, yardage-wise, on offense and defense.
For example, look at Oregon and Ohio State. Oregon has the #1 offense, but only the #56 defense. The Buckeyes are almost exactly opposite: their dominant #1 defense holds opponents down while their average, #59 offense gains basically the amount that a defense will give them.
BYU is now well in control of the Mountain West, and faces TCU tonight. The rest of their games are winnable, and a 10-2 record would match last year's finish and would be accomplished in the same way. Last year's squad also lost two games early, by close margins, then reeled off a succession of wins to close the season. Unfortunately by losing non-conference games the Cougars' bowl possibilities seem limited to a third straight Las Vegas bowl appearance.
Total Offense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team Rec Total (rank) Rush (rank) Pass (rank)
1. Oregon (8-1) 548.4 [ 1] 298.0 [ 3] 250.4 [ 40]
2. Texas Tech (7-3) 526.7 [ 2] 53.2 [118] 473.5 [ 2]
3. Hawaii (8-0) 524.5 [ 3] 43.2 [119] 481.2 [ 1]
4. Tulsa (6-3) 516.9 [ 4] 167.8 [ 50] 349.0 [ 7]
5. Missouri (8-1) 516.7 [ 5] 165.2 [ 53] 351.5 [ 5]
6. Oklahoma St (5-4) 512.3 [ 6] 243.1 [ 7] 269.1 [ 24]
7. Louisville (5-4) 502.0 [ 7] 134.7 [ 82] 367.2 [ 3]
8. Nevada (5-4) 485.5 [ 8] 201.1 [ 22] 284.4 [ 16]
9. Brigham Young (6-2) 478.3 [ 9] 137.0 [ 81] 341.3 [ 8]
10. Texas (8-2) 475.3 [ 10] 207.6 [ 17] 267.7 [ 27]
Notre Dame is still #120, despite scoring 44 against Navy; both teams in fact gained a surprisingly small amount of yards to achieve their scores.
Passing Offense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team Rec Total (rank) Rush (rank) Pass (rank)
1. Hawaii (8-0) 524.5 [ 3] 43.2 [119] 481.2 [ 1]
2. Texas Tech (7-3) 526.7 [ 2] 53.2 [118] 473.5 [ 2]
3. Louisville (5-4) 502.0 [ 7] 134.7 [ 82] 367.2 [ 3]
4. New Mexico St (4-6) 443.8 [ 29] 80.3 [112] 363.5 [ 4]
5. Missouri (8-1) 516.7 [ 5] 165.2 [ 53] 351.5 [ 5]
6. Boston College (8-1) 468.5 [ 14] 119.3 [ 95] 349.1 [ 6]
7. Tulsa (6-3) 516.9 [ 4] 167.8 [ 50] 349.0 [ 7]
8. Brigham Young (6-2) 478.3 [ 9] 137.0 [ 81] 341.3 [ 8]
9. Arizona (4-6) 445.9 [ 28] 113.9 [ 99] 331.9 [ 9]
10. Washington St (3-6) 463.2 [ 16] 159.4 [ 58] 303.8 [ 10]
Hawaii remains #1 in passing yardage, and inches up to #119 in rushing yardage.
Rushing Offense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team Rec Total (rank) Rush (rank) Pass (rank)
1. Navy (5-4) 431.1 [ 34] 334.2 [ 1] 96.8 [120]
2. Arkansas (6-3) 469.0 [ 13] 315.8 [ 2] 153.1 [112]
3. Oregon (8-1) 548.4 [ 1] 298.0 [ 3] 250.4 [ 40]
4. West Virginia (7-1) 457.0 [ 20] 293.3 [ 4] 163.6 [107]
5. Air Force (7-3) 419.5 [ 40] 270.8 [ 5] 148.7 [114]
6. Illinois (7-3) 404.2 [ 49] 266.9 [ 6] 137.3 [119]
7. Oklahoma St (5-4) 512.3 [ 6] 243.1 [ 7] 269.1 [ 24]
8. Louisiana-Lafayette (1-8) 381.2 [ 65] 242.4 [ 8] 138.7 [117]
9. Washington (3-6) 441.7 [ 30] 240.7 [ 9] 201.0 [ 81]
10. LSU (8-1) 471.8 [ 12] 231.6 [ 10] 240.2 [ 48]
Arkansas can't break Navy's grip on top of the rushing chart. The adjusted totals you see here for Navy and Arkansas are extremely close to the simple averages, meaning both teams have played opponents who have, in aggregate, a very average rushing defense.
Now the defense:
Total Defense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team Rec Total (rank) Rush (rank) Pass (rank)
1. Ohio State (10-0) 207.2 [ 1] 38.8 [ 1] 168.3 [ 5]
2. Southern Cal (7-2) 228.7 [ 2] 65.7 [ 4] 163.0 [ 4]
3. LSU (8-1) 234.2 [ 3] 56.4 [ 3] 177.7 [ 7]
4. Oregon St (5-4) 258.8 [ 4] 47.4 [ 2] 211.4 [ 44]
5. Auburn (7-3) 263.5 [ 5] 86.9 [ 9] 176.5 [ 6]
6. Brigham Young (6-2) 271.1 [ 6] 86.5 [ 8] 184.5 [ 13]
7. Oklahoma (8-1) 273.4 [ 7] 71.5 [ 5] 201.8 [ 31]
8. West Virginia (7-1) 277.1 [ 8] 116.8 [ 28] 160.2 [ 3]
9. Clemson (7-2) 289.5 [ 9] 134.0 [ 46] 155.4 [ 2]
10. Arizona St (8-1) 292.3 [ 10] 77.6 [ 6] 214.6 [ 46]
Ohio State stays in the top spot, while Kansas falls out of the top ten after yielding scads of passing yards to Nebraska. The Huskers actually had more passing yards than KU on route to losing 76-39.
Passing Defense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team Rec Total (rank) Rush (rank) Pass (rank)
1. Texas Tech (7-3) 327.5 [ 25] 176.9 [ 80] 150.5 [ 1]
2. Clemson (7-2) 289.5 [ 9] 134.0 [ 46] 155.4 [ 2]
3. West Virginia (7-1) 277.1 [ 8] 116.8 [ 28] 160.2 [ 3]
4. Southern Cal (7-2) 228.7 [ 2] 65.7 [ 4] 163.0 [ 4]
5. Ohio State (10-0) 207.2 [ 1] 38.8 [ 1] 168.3 [ 5]
6. Auburn (7-3) 263.5 [ 5] 86.9 [ 9] 176.5 [ 6]
7. LSU (8-1) 234.2 [ 3] 56.4 [ 3] 177.7 [ 7]
8. TCU (5-4) 294.0 [ 12] 115.0 [ 24] 179.0 [ 8]
9. Notre Dame (1-8) 334.4 [ 28] 154.3 [ 62] 180.0 [ 9]
10. North Carolina St (4-5) 388.1 [ 65] 204.2 [104] 183.9 [ 10]
Last week the Buckeyes were tops in passing defense but fell to #2 against the run; this week, they move back to the top in rushing but fall all the way to fifth against the pass. And how about Texas Tech? Not only do they pass well (#2) they defend against the pass even better...or maybe opponents know they should be running the ball against the #80 rushing defense?
That's what I used to think was going on with North Carolina State back when they were topping this chart, but it turned out they were for real. Last week, for example, Miami went 1-14 passing against them for only 82 yards. It was Kirby Freeman throwing, to be fair, but still...
Rushing Defense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team Rec Total (rank) Rush (rank) Pass (rank)
1. Ohio State (10-0) 207.2 [ 1] 38.8 [ 1] 168.3 [ 5]
2. Oregon St (5-4) 258.8 [ 4] 47.4 [ 2] 211.4 [ 44]
3. LSU (8-1) 234.2 [ 3] 56.4 [ 3] 177.7 [ 7]
4. Southern Cal (7-2) 228.7 [ 2] 65.7 [ 4] 163.0 [ 4]
5. Oklahoma (8-1) 273.4 [ 7] 71.5 [ 5] 201.8 [ 31]
6. Arizona St (8-1) 292.3 [ 10] 77.6 [ 6] 214.6 [ 46]
7. Florida (6-3) 335.0 [ 29] 82.0 [ 7] 253.0 [ 93]
8. Brigham Young (6-2) 271.1 [ 6] 86.5 [ 8] 184.5 [ 13]
9. Auburn (7-3) 263.5 [ 5] 86.9 [ 9] 176.5 [ 6]
10. Boston College (8-1) 398.3 [ 71] 88.5 [ 10] 309.8 [117]
Ohio State held Wisconsin to 12 yards rushing last Saturday. Twelve yards. Wisconsin, who ranked #18 in the country going into that game. That's the kind of performance that wins national championships.
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