SportsRatings: College Football

Division I-AA Playoffs: Round two preview

The Division I-AA playoffs enter their second round this weekend, with eight teams left vying for the title.

Here's a list of the 8 teams left, and their power ratings from the 719-team list:

#   rnk Team                         rec   rating
1   58. Northern Iowa               12-0   43.78 
2   70. Appalachian St              10-2   39.23 
3   71. Massachusetts               10-2   39.10 
4   74. Richmond                    10-2   38.82 
5   77. Southern Illinois           11-1   38.14 
6   82. Delaware                     9-3   37.25 
7   99. Wofford                      9-3   33.31 
8  112. Eastern Washington           9-3   31.34 

Delaware (9-3) at Northern Iowa (12-0). After surviving a scare last weekend, maybe the top-seeded Panthers will take Delaware more seriously than they did New Hampshire? They'd better, because Delaware's offense is New Hampshire's equal, and their defense is better. Home dome advantage once again goes to UNI.

Massachusetts (10-2) at Southern Illinois (11-1). The Salukis, seeded 4th in the original field of 16, will have their hands full with the Minutemen. Being played in Carbondale, this is anybody's ball game.

Eastern Washington (9-3) at Appalachian State (10-2). Eastern Washington is the surprise team here after offing undefeated McNeese State last week. This wasn't as big of an upset as Appalachian State over Michigan, but it knocked one of the top teams in the polls out of the race. The Mountaineers should be able to handle business at home. I wonder if Michigan fans are rooting for or against them?

Richmond (10-2) at Wofford (9-3). I guess Wofford inherited Montana's 3-seed? Or I also read something about a coin flip determining home field for the second round. Either way, Wofford will need it to beat Richmond, whose only losses are to Vanderbilt and a 2-point loss to Towson. Wofford scored an "upset" over undefeated (but overrated) Montana to get here, and beat Appalachian State earlier in the year.

Week 14 Preview - The Rematches

Of the five conference championships Saturday, three are rematches from earlier in the year, two affect BCS games, and one affects the national championship.

The rematches:

Tulsa (8-3) at Central Florida (8-3) - Winner of Conference USA title game has excellent chance of finishing year in top 25. Tulsa has a win over BYU, while UCF nearly beat Texas. Home field advantage suggests a repeat, albeit closer, of UCF's mid-season win over Tulsa.

#9 Virginia Tech (10-2) vs. #8 Boston College (10-2) - Most people think this is where Tech gets its revenge, and how the teams have fared since their first meeting would suggest the Hokies are playing better than the Eagles, who have gone 2-2 from that point. But strange things happen in rematch games. Look for this one to have a bit more scoring than the last one.

#1 Missouri (11-1) vs. #5 Oklahoma (10-2) - The latest "game of the year" with the winner playing for a BCS birth. Missouri is shoo-in for the national title game if they win, but the Sooners  still have an outside shot at the national championship game if they win and West Virginia stumbles against Pitt.

Other conference championships:

Miami, Ohio (6-6) at Central Michigan (7-5) - Strangely, some MAC teams play more conference games than others, and one result is 6-6 Miami of Ohio getting into the championship game. In case you're wondering where the Big Ten got all its non-conference wins, look no further. It's pretty bad when one of your divisional leaders is fighting for a winning record.

#25 Tennessee (9-3) vs. #6 LSU (10-2) - Both teams had triple-plus overtime games last week, with LSU coming up short and Tennessee hanging on by a thread. There's no way the Volunteers should be able to stay with LSU, but lately everyone is staying close to LSU. Right now Tennessee has to be very "up" and LSU "down" about recent turn of events, will this show up on the field?

Other games of interest:

UCLA (6-5) at #11 USC (9-2) - I can't recall exactly how, but UCLA still has a shot at winning the Pac-10. I think that would be hilarious. I don't know if it would be hilarious enough to make up for losing the OSU-USC Rose Bowl, though.

Pittsburgh (4-7) at #2 West Virginia (10-1) - Pitt could be the ultimate spoiler. If Pitt and Oklahoma win, there will be a 2-loss team in the national title game, which is just unacceptable. Luckily, there's no way West Virginia is going to fumble away the title shot at home. The only way it could happen is just that—fumbles—which have hurt the Mountaineers in a lot of games this year. Don't lose, West Virginia, please don't lose.

Washington (4-8) at #4 Hawaii (11-0) - The Huskies beat Boise State, now they try for bigger prey. With the game in Honolulu, I don't think it's going to happen. In Seattle this one would be a tossup. Colt Brennan is being listed on most people's Heisman top five now, and this is his last attempt to secure a New York invite.

Coaching Michigan & Nebraska

Two of the biggest programs in college football are in the hiring process.

Michigan has been rumored to be considering Les Miles of LSU, and if that's the case I can't imagine an announcement being made until January. Unless Miles has given up on this season because it's not a championship season, then maybe right after the SEC championship game we might hear something.

Tom Dienhart thinks Iowa's Kirk Ferentz is actually the front-runner. I doubt Michigan fans are too hot on Ferenz, who is as low-key as Carr and won't dazzle them with new offensive schemes. Also his recent record is suspect. But the administration knows him, and people who know coaching know he's good, and at Michigan he'd be able to recruit consistently.

The one thing Dienhart says that doesn't make sense to me is this: Ferentz, who likely won't command a big salary, is the early leader.

For one thing, isn't Ferentz already one of the highest-paid coaches in the country? And two, if he weren't going to make at least as much at Michigan, why would he go there? Michigan's President Mary Sue Coleman used to be Iowa's President; she's well aware of his current salary. If they want Ferenz, it's because they want him, not because they can get him on the cheap. Just because it's Iowa, Dienhart assumes Ferenz is getting paid in corn.

Speaking of corn, Nebraska needs a new coach too, and they want an insider. Bo Pelini has been mentioned (is everyone from LSU looking to jump ship?), as well as Grobe from Wake Forest, but the bold move would be to hire Turner Gill away from Buffalo. That's the only way to make Nebraska football exciting again. They could get either of the other two coaches and rebuild the program, of course, or they could energize it with a young coach, an ex-player who is identified as one of the Husker's greats.

More conservative heads may prevail and not want to "take a chance" with Gill, and there's the chance they're just using him as a token minority interview. Let's hope Tom Osborne has the balls to make the bold move and bring his guy into the fold.

Update 1: Tom Osborne has declared himself "interim coach." Fans probably hope this is similar to Steve Jobs being iCEO of Apple.

Update 2: Found in a story on Joe Paterno's salary; from a 2006 USA Today article: Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz has a base salary of $1.4 million this year and is guaranteed another $1.4 million in supplemental compensation for media and other obligations...

...Iowa's Kirk Ferentz will pocket a guaranteed $4.6 million in an atypical 13-month period ending next June, including $1.8 million in one-time payments. With the incentive bonuses he still can earn, he could push his take to more than $4.7 million. That's the most among the 107 coaches for whom USA TODAY could obtain a contract or other official document showing compensation.

If that's what Dienhart defines as "not commanding a big salary," then I would please like to not command a big salary.

 

Ohio State, USC, Georgia are not the best teams

This article by Mike Freeman sums up everything that's wrong with sportswriters today: they can't let go of the past, and are far too influenced by a team's name when deciding how to rate them.

He argues that Missouri and West Virginia aren't the best teams: Ohio State and USC are. Ignoring the part where he says Missouri-West Virginia won't be watched, since that has nothing to do with the quality of the teams, his argument boils down to this: Ohio State and USC have "developed" into the best teams by the end of the season.

For USC, this serves the purpose of being able to ignore their loss to Stanford, and act as if it never happened, which is necessary to avoid having someone laugh in your face for suggesting such a team deserves a title shot. If West Virginia or Missouri had a loss to Stanford on their record, they wouldn't be close to the top ten, and every writer of Freeman's ilk would ridicule them for it.

For Ohio State, somehow we're supposed to believe that in the one week between their loss to Illinois and their win over Michigan, they recovered and became one of the two best teams. Because, you know, a lot can change in one week. They're so good, they're getting better during all their idle weeks, too! Look how it helped them last year....oh but wait, we're not supposed to bring that up. Freeman writes "it takes a lot of guts to do what Tressel has," making another run after being crushed last year. What? How does this make them better than the two other teams we're discussing exactly?

He then mentions that he'd take Florida over either of WVA or Mizzou, and that even Georgia is better. A sidebar picture contains the caption "Despite two losses, Mark Richt's Bulldogs might be the best team in the nation."

Where did all this crap talk about Georgia come from? Is it just the fact that they've won a few games in a row? When you look at their record, you see exactly one impressive win: over Florida. Other than that, nothing special. They beat Auburn, Kentucky, and Troy, and lost to South Carolina, and at Tennessee 35-14. They're far from the best 2-loss team, let alone best overall. Oklahoma, LSU, Virginia Tech, and even Boston College have more solid wins over top 25 teams and/or less embarrassing losses. They've been playing well recently, and it's unfortunate they don't get a shot at the SEC title, but winning streaks aren't always due to greatness. They were playing mediocre football in the first half of the season and that's skewed people's perceptions of what they've done in the 2nd half.

Missouri and West Virginia both have one loss, on the road, to top 25 teams. Ohio State's loss was at home, to Illinois, a good team, but one that Missouri was able to beat. The Buckeyes have one win over a top 25 team, Wisconsin. West Virginia has one as well, in addition to destroying another one so badly they fell out of the poll, while Missouri has two and will need a third to even get to the championship game. You can't argue that Ohio State's championship résumé is better than those two teams. USC, of course, has one win over Arizona State, and two losses, one to Oregon, and the other we're supposed to forget ever happened.

Freeman is salivating over the potential USC-Ohio State Rose Bowl, and so am I. Why can't we have both games—the classic Rose Bowl matchup, as well as the matchup of the two teams that deserve to be in the championship—and enjoy both of them?

719-team Power Rating: Division I-A, I-AA, II, III, NAIA

In order to rate the Division I-AA teams during the playoff season, I ran my Points-based power rating subcomponent on a file containing all games among teams in all divisions. The resultant rating has 719 teams, and the additional rating affects the position of some Division I-A teams as well.

For the SportsRatings College Football Power Rating, also referred to as the "overall" power rating, I used only games involving Division I-A teams. This introduces a subtle penalty for teams that play Division I-AA teams, which is normally a given win. It's difficult to gain points by playing such teams under this system, which is how it should be.

When the file is expanded to include the other divisions, a team's rating may adjust somewhat, as information is added about the lower division opponent's quality.

Here is an example using two prominent teams, Michigan and Hawaii:

num  Team                          rec   rating  off     def
35.  Michigan                      8-4    50.40  47.17  -3.22
36.  Hawaii                       11-0    49.57  60.14  10.57

As it turns out, they end up right next to each other in the expanded rating. In the Division I only rating, Michigan is 27th and Hawaii is 51st, so there is quite an effect for these specific teams. Adding more information actually diminishes Appalachian State, making Michigan's loss to them worse. This makes sense if you think about it: the Michigan game was certainly their best win, and adding in their other performances can only draw them down, thereby pulling the Wolverines' rating down slightly.

Hawaii played and defeated two Division I-AA opponents, beating Northern Colorado 63-6, and Charleston Southern 66-10. While it would seem that these lopsided victories would inflate Hawaii's rating, when taken out of context there is an equal reaction to degrade the opposition. These were clearly the worst defeat either team suffered; when their other games are added in, their rating improves, thus Hawaii's wins look more impressive.

The upshot? Without the full Division I-AA information, Michigan rates a 5.5 point favorite on a neutral field over the Warriors; with the extra info, they're about a 1 point favorite.

Another interesting result is that average scores become exagerrated since the "average team" is a poor Division II team, so large offensive scores and negative defensive averages are common.

At a certain point in the ratings, non-Division I-A teams start to show up:

num  Team                         rec   rating  off     def
58. Northern Iowa                12-0    43.78  46.81   3.02
59. Fresno St                     7-4    43.16  49.74   6.58
60. Mississippi St                7-5    42.65  44.70   2.04
61. Nebraska-Omaha               10-1    42.10  47.27   5.17
62. Indiana                       7-5    41.62  49.17   7.54
63. North Carolina                4-8    41.58  44.91   3.32
64. Washington St                 5-7    41.41  49.09   7.67
65. New Mexico                    8-4    41.38  43.69   2.31
66. Pittsburgh                    4-7    40.98  43.39   2.41
67. Ball St                       7-5    39.86  46.13   6.26
68. Iowa                          6-6    39.60  37.56  -2.03
69. Tulsa                         9-3    39.41  55.49  16.08
70. Appalachian St               10-2    39.23  52.30  13.07
71. Massachusetts                10-2    39.10  44.20   5.09
72. NW Missouri St               10-1    39.04  48.18   9.13
73. North Dakota                 10-2    38.98  48.51   9.53
74. Richmond                     10-2    38.82  48.66   9.83
75. Mississippi                   3-9    38.66  42.93   4.27
76. North Dakota St              10-1    38.45  48.87  10.42
77. Southern Illinois            11-1    38.14  47.86   9.72

Northern Iowa, the top-ranked team in the polls and the #1 seed in the Division I-AA playoff, is also the highest-rated team in the power rating at #58. Note that they rate higher than the two Division I-A teams in the state, Iowa at #68 and Iowa State at #92, whom the Panthers defeated earlier in the year.

Other non-Division I-A teams in this range are highlighted. Nebraska-Omaha is a Division II team, and they recently lost in the Division II playoffs when #103 Central Washington scored two touchdowns in the final minutes. Northwest Missouri State is also Division II, along with North Dakota. Thus there isn't too much difference between the top Division II teams and the best of Division I-AA. At #70, of course, is defending champ Appalachian State, a team that looked like the sure #1 after beating Michigan. They lost twice this season, but are in the final eight in the playoffs.

Another interesting comparison: The top Division II team in the polls is undefeated Grand Valley State. They rank three spots higher than Notre Dame this year, a result which has to be a first for the Irish.

num  Team                         rec   rating  off     def
93. Grand Valley St              11-0    34.68  42.20   7.51
94. Nevada                        5-6    34.44  50.48  16.03
95. McNeese St                   11-1    34.35  42.31   7.96
96. Notre Dame                    3-9    34.27  39.20   4.93

And finally, what everybody wants to see after viewing any ratings for a few minutes, is, who are the lowest-rated teams? So here are the bottom ten. Remember, only score margin is used for this power rating so winning and losing per sé doesn't influence a team's rating.

num  Team                          rec   rating  off     def
710. Lewis & Clark                 0-9   -62.23   4.39  66.63
711. SUNY-Maritime                 2-8   -63.18  -1.99  61.19
712. Gallaudet                     2-6   -63.68  -7.80  55.87
713. St Vincent                    0-10  -66.75  -1.05  65.69
714. Eureka                        2-8   -70.74  -7.58  63.16
715. Blackburn                     4-6   -70.84  -3.47  67.37
716. MacMurray                     0-10  -79.04 -10.82  68.22
717. Maranatha Baptist             2-7   -81.24 -15.97  65.26
718. Trinity Bible                 1-8   -86.39 -18.29  68.10
719. Principia                     1-8   -96.54 -17.91  78.63

Principia, a St. Louis-area college, rates as the worst team in America. They did manage one victory this season—over #718 Trinity Bible at home, but they lost a rematch on a neutral field, 45-20. That was the sixth-fewest points they allowed all season, as well. According to these numbers, the average team is nearly 100 points better than Principia, though they'd only be favored by 79 since the Panthers offense  score is deeply negative (suggesting a team with a defense 18 points worse than average could still expect to shut them out).

Who is this "average" team then? The closest to meeting that designation is #321 Muhlenberg, with a 0.07 overall rating. The Mules are a Division III team, so being the average team among all divisions is an achievement. As expected, they outperformed in their Division, and finished their season 11-1, losing in the second round of the Division III playoffs.

Conference Championship Rematches: The Real History

Three conference championship games this weekend are rematches of regular-season contests (don't forget UCF vs. Tulsa!). The focus is on championship-game determiner Missouri-Oklahoma, and ESPN's Ivan Maisel states that, as the winner of the previous game, history is on Oklahoma's side:

Since the NCAA allowed Division I-A conferences to stage championship games in 1992, there have been 16 rematches of regular-season games. The team that won in the regular season has gone 10-6...history, as well as the oddsmakers, give the edge to Oklahoma.

This seems to me a selective view of "history." Doesn't it seem likely that, in the first place, the team that won the first game might be expected to be the better team, and therefore win the second? His statistics don't take into account the times when a dominant team defeats a lesser team twice, such as the pathetic Texas-Colorado series of 2005. The situation for Oklahoma-Missouri is very different: Missouri has a better record than Oklahoma, and is ranked higher. What do the stats say for that situation? I looked at several different correlations.

Previous winner: 9-6 (60%), advantage: Oklahoma

First off, I couldn't find the 16 games he's talking about. Conference USA only has had one repeat game, instead of the two he lists; by my count, the record is 9-6, that is, only a 60% chance that the team that won the first game will win the second game. Let's see if we can find more significant correlations or not.

Team with better record: 8-4 (67%), advantage: Missouri

Out of the 15 cases, 3 games were between teams with equal records, leaving a dozen games where one had the advantage over the other. Of those 12 games, 8 were won by the team with the better record, a 66.67% clip. This is slightly higher than the rate for "previous winner."

Team ranked higher: 8-3 (73%), advantage: Missouri

There were 11 games where one or both teams were ranked in the AP top 25 before the game, and the higher-ranked team won 8 of the 11, for almost 73%. Combining the two, teams that were both ranked higher and had a better record won 78% of the time.

Now for some situations that specifically apply to Missouri-Oklahoma.

Previous winner with worse record: 1-2 (33%)
Previous winner ranked lower: 1-1 (50%)

There aren't enough of these examples to make use of the stats. The specific situation in Missouri-Oklahoma is "previous winner has lower ranking and worse record" which only happened once, when Nebraska avenged its mid-season loss to Texas in 1999. But Texas was unranked at the time, which doesn't match with what we have now: two top ten teams. So let's look at that.

Both teams in top ten: 3-1 for repeat win (75%)

What we really should look for, though, is matchups between very even teams. Filter out the obvious games where one is clearly better than the other before beating them twice, or an unpredictable upset occurs.

Teams with record within one loss, or 10 spots in polls: 6-3 for repeat (67%)

So for evenly matched teams, we're back to favoring a repeat win, and therefore the Sooners. But if we assume Missouri got upset the previous game, and is the better team, correctly rated higher, we favor Missouri with roughly the same certainty. One more factor to consider: the previous game being close. Oklahoma only won by 10 points, at home.

Previous game was within 14 points: Repeats 5-4 (56%)

Interestingly, Oklahoma initially beat Kansas State in 2000 by an identical score to the 2007 Missouri game. For the rematch, Oklahoma was #1, 12-0, and Kansas State was #8 and 10-2. The Sooners won the rematch. In that case, Oklahoma won the first game on the road, whereas this year Missouri lost on the road, and claimed the #1 ranking to OK's #9 ranking. So part of the situation is the same, part is reversed.

From all of these numbers, I think it's clear that history does not necessarily favor Oklahoma over Missouri. It's a rare situation: the higher-ranked team with the better record lost the first contest in a close game, and both teams are still in the top ten. Pieces of that equation are scattered throughout the results of the past, but not in any way that suggests history has a "favorite" next Saturday.

Division I-AA Playoffs - first round recap

The Division I-AA playoffs have finished their first round, and so far there has been only one upset, Eastern Washington destroying McNeese State. This is according to a power rating analysis of the Division I-AA teams. If you go by the seedings, there were two upsets; the aforementioned game, and also when 3rd seeded Montana lost to Wofford. Using the polls as your guide, their was a third, minor upset, when Delaware beat Delaware State.

The top seed in the 16-team playoff is Northern Iowa (11-0 going in), and they narrowly escaped against  New Hampshire, 38-35. This was played in the Uni-dome in Cedar Falls, Iowa, as the top seeds plays at home. The home field might have been the difference here. So what happened? As it turns out, New Hampshire, only 7-4 before the tournament, is much better than their record. Northern Iowa simply got a bad draw. Three of their four losses were to other playoff teams, and they had a win against a fourth, Delaware, as well as a win over Division I-A Marshall.

Here's a list of the 16 teams that started the tournament, and their power ratings (pre-first round):

#   rnk Team                         rec   rating
1   57. Northern Iowa               11-0   46.02 
2   71. Massachusetts                9-2   40.40 
3   72. Appalachian St               9-2   40.39 
4   74. Southern Illinois           10-1   39.92 
5   77. Richmond                     9-2   39.30 
6   79. McNeese St                  11-0   38.86 
7   86. James Madison                8-3   36.87 
8   88. Delaware                     8-3   36.61 
9   99. Wofford                      8-3   34.42 
10 110. New Hampshire                7-4   32.36 
11 133. Montana                     11-0   29.19 
12 142. Eastern Washington           8-3   27.57 
13 165. Eastern Kentucky             9-2   23.45 
14 201. Fordham                      8-3   16.88 
15 208. Eastern Illinois             8-3   16.17 
16 214. Delaware St                 10-1   15.60 

Delaware (8-3) played the worst team in the draw, Delaware State (10-1) and beat them 44-7, in the first ever meeting (weird, huh?) between the two schools. The teams played because there is a regional aspect to the playoffs, and only 4 teams are seeded. Delaware will play at UNI on Saturday.

4th seed Southern Illinois beat Eastern Illinois as expected, 30-11, and Massachusetts took out Fordham 49-35; that takes care of the upper bracket.

The lower bracket had a few surprises. McNeese State, playing at home, fell to Eastern Washington 44-15. Though McNeese was #6 in the field according to the power rating, they were essentially even with teams #2 through #5, and they were undefeated, while Eastern Washington was 12th best in the playoff. Definitely an upset, especially the magnitude of the victory.

Eastern Washington will face another tough team in Appalachian State, famous upset winner over Michigan to open the season, who survived a scare from James Madison. Both are among the top-rated teams in the playoff, so this was a key game, and went down to the wire, 28-27.

Though undefeated, Montana was a truly weak 3rd seed, and should have been a very slight underdog to Wofford even with home field advantage. This turned out to be true as the final was 23-22 on a wild finish, a Wofford touchdown with 30 seconds to go, and a missed Montana field goal at the finish.

Richmond is the last team in the final eight after beating Eastern Kentucky 31-14. This leaves, in the final eight, teams that rate 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 9, and 12 among the full 16. These comparative rankings may change with the updated power rating. The full 662-team power rating can be found in the sidebar.

Yardage Stats - week 13 (through 11/24/07)

A change at the top of the total yardage differential chart. LSU falls to #3, and Southern Cal pushes its way to #1; the Brigham Young Cougars remain in 2nd place, though they are the only team that ranks in the top ten in offense and defense.

Total Yardage Differential (adjusted for opposition): 
Rank Team                         Rec   Yards   Off  Def
1.   Southern Cal                 9-2   213.5   26    2
2.   Brigham Young                9-2   206.3    9    6
3.   LSU                         10-2   189.0   14    5
4.   Texas Tech                   8-4   187.7    1   27
5.   Missouri                    11-1   175.5    2   36
6.   Oregon                       8-3   172.3    5   30
7.   West Virginia               10-1   165.8   17    8
8.   Ohio State                  11-1   165.0   69    1
9.   Oklahoma                    10-2   164.1   20    7
10.  Hawaii                      11-0   159.6    3   40

On offense, Texas Tech takes over the #1 spot as Dennis-Dixon-less Oregon falls to #5 after getting shutout by UCLA.

Total Offense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Texas Tech                   8-4   527.3 [  1]   58.4 [118]  468.8 [  2]
2.   Missouri                    11-1   521.7 [  2]  173.2 [ 44]  348.4 [  7]
3.   Hawaii                      11-0   518.6 [  3]   47.2 [120]  471.3 [  1]
4.   Tulsa                        9-3   515.3 [  4]  159.6 [ 57]  355.6 [  6]
5.   Oregon                       8-3   513.6 [  5]  276.4 [  6]  237.1 [ 46]
6.   Oklahoma St                  6-6   504.6 [  6]  256.7 [  7]  247.9 [ 40]
7.   Nebraska                     5-7   498.0 [  7]  167.3 [ 50]  330.7 [  9]
8.   Louisville                   5-6   493.1 [  8]  134.0 [ 82]  359.0 [  4]
9.   Brigham Young                9-2   492.9 [  9]  151.9 [ 67]  340.9 [  8]
10.  Florida                      9-3   489.5 [ 10]  210.9 [ 15]  278.6 [ 21]

Missouri and Hawaii jump from 5th and 6th into 2nd and 3rd after big games against tough foes.

Passing Offense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Hawaii                      11-0   518.6 [  3]   47.2 [120]  471.3 [  1]
2.   Texas Tech                   8-4   527.3 [  1]   58.4 [118]  468.8 [  2]
3.   New Mexico St                4-8   436.8 [ 32]   70.7 [117]  366.0 [  3]
4.   Louisville                   5-6   493.1 [  8]  134.0 [ 82]  359.0 [  4]
5.   Boston College              10-2   465.5 [ 16]  109.5 [100]  355.9 [  5]
6.   Tulsa                        9-3   515.3 [  4]  159.6 [ 57]  355.6 [  6]
7.   Missouri                    11-1   521.7 [  2]  173.2 [ 44]  348.4 [  7]
8.   Brigham Young                9-2   492.9 [  9]  151.9 [ 67]  340.9 [  8]
9.   Nebraska                     5-7   498.0 [  7]  167.3 [ 50]  330.7 [  9]
10.  Washington St                5-7   475.1 [ 11]  147.5 [ 68]  327.6 [ 10]

The back-and-forth between Texas Tech and Hawaii continues on the passing chart; for the 4th week or so, they trade spots. Colt Brennan's 495 yards against Boise State nudges the Warriors ahead of Graham Harrell and Tech, idle this week.

Rushing Offense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Navy                         7-4  442.4 [ 28]  354.5 [  1]   87.9 [120]
2.   West Virginia               10-1  465.3 [ 17]  314.6 [  2]  150.6 [114]
3.   Arkansas                     8-4  466.4 [ 15]  302.3 [  3]  164.0 [109]
4.   Air Force                    9-3  435.0 [ 33]  291.3 [  4]  143.6 [119]
5.   Illinois                     9-3  433.9 [ 34]  284.3 [  5]  149.5 [115]
6.   Oregon                       8-3  513.6 [  5]  276.4 [  6]  237.1 [ 46]
7.   Oklahoma St                  6-6  504.6 [  6]  256.7 [  7]  247.9 [ 40]
8.   Washington                   4-8  451.0 [ 21]  247.8 [  8]  203.1 [ 81]
9.   Louisiana-Lafayette          3-9  394.5 [ 59]  247.1 [  9]  147.4 [117]
10.  LSU                         10-2  468.8 [ 14]  232.6 [ 10]  236.1 [ 47]

Even 517 yards of rushing offense against Connecticut couldn't overcome Navy's lead on the rushing chart for West Virginia. Arkansas jumps from 5th up to 3rd.

Now for defense:

Total Defense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Ohio State                  11-1   214.8 [  1]   47.2 [  2]  167.6 [  2]
2.   Southern Cal                 9-2   231.3 [  2]   65.5 [  3]  165.7 [  1]
3.   Oregon St                    7-4   265.2 [  3]   46.3 [  1]  218.8 [ 49]
4.   Auburn                       8-4   272.5 [  4]   95.9 [ 14]  176.5 [  4]
5.   LSU                         10-2   279.7 [  5]   90.3 [ 11]  189.3 [ 11]
6.   Brigham Young                9-2   286.6 [  6]   86.4 [  7]  200.1 [ 22]
7.   Oklahoma                    10-2   289.6 [  7]   95.1 [ 13]  194.5 [ 16]
8.   West Virginia               10-1   299.5 [  8]  112.6 [ 21]  186.8 [  9]
9.   Arizona St                   9-2   302.5 [  9]   79.6 [  4]  222.8 [ 55]
10.  Clemson                      9-3   304.8 [ 10]  124.4 [ 34]  180.3 [  6]

Not much change on the total defense chart; Ohio State is still #1, and #2 in both measures, and USC is 2nd, at 3rd in rushing and 1st against the pass. LSU falls a couple spots, somewhat unfairly due to extra overtime yardage surrendered to Arkansas.

Passing Defense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Southern Cal                 9-2   231.3 [  2]   65.5 [  3]  165.7 [  1]
2.   Ohio State                  11-1   214.8 [  1]   47.2 [  2]  167.6 [  2]
3.   Texas Tech                   8-4   339.5 [ 27]  169.9 [ 73]  169.6 [  3]
4.   Auburn                       8-4   272.5 [  4]   95.9 [ 14]  176.5 [  4]
5.   Notre Dame                   3-9   338.3 [ 26]  160.2 [ 68]  178.1 [  5]
6.   Clemson                      9-3   304.8 [ 10]  124.4 [ 34]  180.3 [  6]
7.   UNLV                         2-10  362.4 [ 43]  178.5 [ 81]  183.8 [  7]
8.   Utah                         8-4   307.2 [ 16]  122.1 [ 29]  185.0 [  8]
9.   West Virginia               10-1   299.5 [  8]  112.6 [ 21]  186.8 [  9]
10.  Pittsburgh                   4-7   313.8 [ 18]  125.5 [ 36]  188.3 [ 10]

Notre Dame's pass defense unit continues to be the bright spot of their season; they now rank in the top five for the first time (plus, their total offense is only 2nd-to-last instead of last this week).

Rushing Defense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Oregon St                    7-4   265.2 [  3]   46.3 [  1]  218.8 [ 49]
2.   Ohio State                  11-1   214.8 [  1]   47.2 [  2]  167.6 [  2]
3.   Southern Cal                 9-2   231.3 [  2]   65.5 [  3]  165.7 [  1]
4.   Arizona St                   9-2   302.5 [  9]   79.6 [  4]  222.8 [ 55]
5.   Boston College              10-2   385.7 [ 65]   82.8 [  5]  302.9 [119]
6.   UCLA                         6-5   304.8 [ 11]   83.9 [  6]  220.9 [ 53]
7.   Brigham Young                9-2   286.6 [  6]   86.4 [  7]  200.1 [ 22]
8.   Penn State                   8-4   344.5 [ 33]   88.7 [  8]  255.8 [ 99]
9.   Cincinnati                   9-3   376.5 [ 55]   89.5 [  9]  286.9 [113]
10.  Florida                      9-3   341.3 [ 29]   89.7 [ 10]  251.5 [ 95]

UCLA's performance against Oregon shoots them up from 15th to 6th; unfortunately, this is more due to Dixon's absense than any improvement on the Bruins' part. The change in Oregon is causing some aberrations in comparative statistics between those who played them pre-Arizona and those who play them after. Thus, Michigan, USC, and Arizona State will look a little worse on defense than they should, while Arizona, UCLA, and Oregon State will appear a bit better.

Lineal Top 25 - week 13 - no #1 vs. #2 :(

Well, it's not going to happen this year. The anticipated #1 vs. #2 matchup of LSU and Georgia didn't happen, falling though due to LSU's loss to new #1 champion Arkansas Razorbacks. Even if LSU had previaled, though, Tennessee's win over Kentucky thwarted Georgia's efforts to make the SEC championship game, where the 1 vs. 2 matchup could have occurred.

The games that spoiled the matchup went to triple and quadruple overtime. It came so close to happening! But now it can't until next year. We'll have to settle for next week's #15 Louisville vs. #16 Rutgers matchup...

New champion Arkansas just entered the Lineal Top 25 for the first time this season at #5, after beating Mississippi State. One week later, and they are the all-time college football Lineal champion, one game away from ending the year on top. It's also going to be the first year since 2000 when the end-of-year Lineal champion is not also the AP national champion.

 

All-Time Lineal Top 25 as of 11/25/2007

lw  now Team                    rec  relevant results
5    1. Arkansas                8-4  beat #1 LSU
1    2. LSU                    10-2  lost to #5 Arkansas
2    3. Georgia                10-2
3    4. Auburn                  8-4
4    5. Florida                 9-3  beat #21 FSU
6    6. Mississippi State       7-5
     7. Tennessee               9-3  beat #7 Kentucky
7    8. Kentucky                7-5  lost to Tennessee
8    9. Illinois                9-3
9   10. Ohio State             11-1
10  11. West Virginia          10-1  beat #12 Connecticut
11  12. Cincinnati              9-3
12  13. Connecticut             9-3  lost to #10 West Virginia
13  14. South Florida           9-3  beat #16 Pittsburgh
14  15. Louisville              5-6
15  16. Rutgers                 7-4
16  17. Pittsburgh              4-7  lost to #13 South Florida
17  18. Arizona                 5-6
    19. UCLA                    6-5  beat #18 Oregon
18  20. Oregon                  8-3  lost to UCLA
24  21. Southern Cal            9-2  beat #19 Arizona State
19  22. Arizona State           9-2  lost to #24 Southern Cal
20  23. Virginia Tech          10-2
21  24. Florida State           7-5  lost to #4 Florida
22  25. Maryland                6-6

dropped out:
23      Boston College         10-2
25      Navy                    7-4

NFL Power Rating - week 12 (thru 11/26/2007)

The Patriots looked human last weekend, but they remain a solid #1. The Eagles, after all, were the 8th best team in the league despite their 5-5 record. This week they move up a spot after almost pulling off the upset.

rnk Team                         rec     overall     Pts[rank]   W/L[rank]
1.  New England Patriots         11-0    40.77 [ 1]  25.19 [ 1]  15.58 [ 1]
2.  Dallas Cowboys               10-1    20.43 [ 2]  13.83 [ 2]   6.59 [ 2]
3.  Green Bay Packers            10-1    17.02 [ 3]  11.02 [ 4]   5.99 [ 3]
4.  Indianapolis Colts            9-2    16.52 [ 4]  12.47 [ 3]   4.05 [ 4]
5.  Pittsburgh Steelers           8-3     8.73 [ 5]   7.33 [ 5]   1.39 [ 9]
6.  San Diego Chargers            6-5     7.96 [ 6]   6.46 [ 6]   1.49 [ 7]
7.  Philadelphia Eagles           5-6     7.13 [ 7]   6.25 [ 7]   0.88 [17]
8.  Jacksonville Jaguars          8-3     5.16 [ 8]   2.98 [ 9]   2.18 [ 5]
9.  Minnesota Vikings             5-6     4.99 [ 9]   4.03 [ 8]   0.95 [15]
10. New York Giants               7-4     4.40 [10]   2.77 [10]   1.63 [ 6]
11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers          7-4     3.66 [11]   2.18 [12]   1.48 [ 8]
12. Washington Redskins           5-6     3.23 [12]   2.38 [11]   0.85 [18]
13. Seattle Seahawks              7-4     1.71 [13]   0.57 [13]   1.14 [12]
14. Chicago Bears                 5-6     1.46 [14]   0.18 [15]   1.28 [10]
15. Detroit Lions                 6-5     1.44 [15]   0.23 [14]   1.21 [11]
16. Cleveland Browns              7-4     1.05 [16]  -0.07 [16]   1.13 [13]
17. Cincinnati Bengals            4-7    -0.91 [17]  -1.32 [17]   0.41 [23]
18. Kansas City Chiefs            4-7    -1.78 [18]  -2.31 [18]   0.52 [21]
19. Tennessee Titans              6-5    -1.99 [19]  -3.04 [19]   1.04 [14]
20. Houston Texans                5-6    -2.75 [20]  -3.31 [20]   0.56 [20]
21. Denver Broncos                5-6    -3.48 [21]  -4.38 [22]   0.89 [16]
22. New York Jets                 3-8    -3.87 [22]  -4.16 [21]   0.29 [28]
23. New Orleans Saints            5-6    -4.15 [23]  -4.73 [25]   0.57 [19]
24. Arizona Cardinals             5-6    -4.15 [24]  -4.65 [24]   0.49 [22]
25. Oakland Raiders               3-8    -4.21 [25]  -4.50 [23]   0.29 [27]
26. Buffalo Bills                 4-7    -5.47 [26]  -5.88 [27]   0.40 [24]
27. Baltimore Ravens              4-7    -8.04 [27]  -8.37 [28]   0.33 [26]
28. Carolina Panthers             4-7    -8.51 [28]  -8.89 [29]   0.37 [25]
29. Atlanta Falcons               3-8    -9.50 [29]  -9.77 [30]   0.27 [29]
30. St. Louis Rams                2-9   -13.52 [30] -13.65 [31]   0.13 [31]
31. San Francisco 49ers           3-8   -13.72 [31] -13.91 [32]   0.19 [30]
32. Miami Dolphins                0-11  -16.60 [32]  -4.89 [26] -11.71 [32]

Alas, the poor Dolphins lost again, their sixth 3-point loss of the year. Someone who keeps records on those sort of things should see if that's a first or not. Their next three games are all potential wins for Miami, who ranks 26th on the points-only ratings, where winning and losing does not matter.

rnk Team                         rec    margin  off    def
1.  New England Patriots         11-0    25.19  40.42  15.23
2.  Dallas Cowboys               10-1    13.83  33.38  19.55
3.  Indianapolis Colts            9-2    12.47  28.21  15.74
4.  Green Bay Packers            10-1    11.02  27.69  16.66
5.  Pittsburgh Steelers           8-3     7.33  21.38  14.04
6.  San Diego Chargers            6-5     6.46  25.06  18.59
7.  Philadelphia Eagles           5-6     6.25  22.76  16.51
8.  Minnesota Vikings             5-6     4.03  22.79  18.76
9.  Jacksonville Jaguars          8-3     2.98  22.29  19.31
10. New York Giants               7-4     2.77  23.52  20.75
11. Washington Redskins           5-6     2.38  20.40  18.02
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers          7-4     2.18  18.52  16.33
13. Seattle Seahawks              7-4     0.57  18.99  18.42
14. Detroit Lions                 6-5     0.23  23.99  23.76
15. Chicago Bears                 5-6     0.18  20.79  20.60
16. Cleveland Browns              7-4    -0.07  28.30  28.38
17. Cincinnati Bengals            4-7    -1.32  26.11  27.44
18. Kansas City Chiefs            4-7    -2.31  14.71  17.02
19. Tennessee Titans              6-5    -3.04  17.45  20.49
20. Houston Texans                5-6    -3.31  21.67  24.99
21. New York Jets                 3-8    -4.16  18.41  22.57
22. Denver Broncos                5-6    -4.38  21.75  26.13
23. Oakland Raiders               3-8    -4.50  17.69  22.20
24. Arizona Cardinals             5-6    -4.65  22.04  26.69
25. New Orleans Saints            5-6    -4.73  21.59  26.33
26. Miami Dolphins                0-11   -4.89  17.39  22.29
27. Buffalo Bills                 4-7    -5.88  14.85  20.73
28. Baltimore Ravens              4-7    -8.37  13.10  21.48
29. Carolina Panthers             4-7    -8.89  14.31  23.21
30. Atlanta Falcons               3-8    -9.77  13.91  23.69
31. St. Louis Rams                2-9   -13.65  13.73  27.39
32. San Francisco 49ers           3-8   -13.91  11.56  25.48

While Pittsburgh's 3-0 win didn't help their overall rating any, it boosted their scoring defense from #2 to #1. This is the first time in weeks that anyone other than New England has held a #1 ranking in anything, though it was bad weather more than anything that led to the shutout. The top five defensive teams:

rnk Team                        record  defense (ave. pts. allowed)
1.  Pittsburgh Steelers           8-3    14.04
2.  New England Patriots         11-0    15.23
3.  Indianapolis Colts            9-2    15.74
4.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers          7-4    16.33
5.  Philadelphia Eagles           5-6    16.51

The Eagles move up to 5th for their performance against New England, which wasn't too surprising considering they were 6th going in. Their offense isn't bad either at 11th; they should be winning more games. They could easily finish 4-1, and make the playoffs at 9-7.

Overtime, Ties, and the BCS Championship

Most fans are aware that until 1996, there was no overtime in college football. Overtime, and the lack of ties in teams' records, is now taken for granted. Last week two major games were decided in multiple-overtime thrillers, with Arkansas beating LSU 50-48 in triple overtime, and Tennessee topping Kentucky 52-50 in quadruple overtime.

But before 1996 (actually, overtime was introduced for 1995's bowl season), ties were a common part of the college football landscape (even the NCAA's official stats site still includes a vestigal ties column). To evaluate teams one had to mentally account for ties and decide what they meant. Half a win? Half a loss? Both? A team could technically still go undefeated and have ties on its record, like Michigan (9-0-3) did in 1992. Usually a tie was considered half of each a win and loss, so Michigan that year would be the equivalent of a 10-1-1 team, which itself would be halfway between 11-1 and 10-2. You can see that this is less than satisfying, not knowing the definitive outcome of a game. No matter how you correct things in your mind, there was something missing.

So the modern college football overtime was created. With it, conference championship games were possible, since under the old rules these could end in a tie, and a championship needs a clear winner. Several benefits ensued: no longer was the dreaded "go for two" choice necessary on extra points when down by one.

Some of the biggest games in the 80s were decided when coaches decided to go for 2. The University of Miami was on both sides of this phenomenon: In 1983, they beat Nebraska 31-30 when the Huskers went for 2 and failed. They beat Florida State 26-25 when Bobby Bowden went for 2 and failed. But in 1988, the Hurricanes under Jimmy Johnson went for 2 to win and missed, preserving Notre Dame's 31-30 win. In all three cases, the winner ended the year as the national champion; in all three cases the loser missed a 2-point try.

Today there's no hesitation: kick the extra point, tie the game, and send it into overtime. Even in overtime the decision is made for the coach: after the 2nd overtime, you have to go for two. This has led to a lot more overtime games than there ever were tie games. From 1996 to 2006, there were 327 overtime games involving at least one Division I-A team. By comparison, from 1985 to 1995, there were only 144 tie games. Also, overtime games seem to be getting more common: for 2002-2006, there were an average of 34 overtime games per year, compared to  an average of 28 from 1996-2000.

This, too, has its share of drawbacks. In some ways, a tie is more representative of a game's outcome than an overtime win or loss. The win or loss skews the perception of the game. In most cases, data on overtime is not retained; historical score data doesn't even include the fact that that at regulation, the game was tied, making it harder to compare today's results to pre-1996 results. And without question, an undefeated season today might be considered less impressive if one or more of the games along the way was an overtime win. Pre-1996 teams didn't have the chance to settle their ties; maybe 1992's Michigan could have won all three games, and the national championship? We'll never know.

But overtime has definitely affected who has been chosen to play in the BCS national championship games. In 2003, Southern California was left out of the title game. Their only loss was an overtime game, and the teams chosen to play in the title game both had one loss. Had USC's record been 11-0-1 rather than 11-1, they almost certainly would have played in the championship game. The Ohio State Buckeyes went undefeated in 2002, but won an overtime game against Illinois. Had they tied the Illini, who finshed 5-7 (or, 5-6-1) that year, would another team have been chosen to play Miami? Notably, the championship game was decided in overtime as well, with Ohio State ending the year 14-0, which looks much better than 12-0-2.

Which brings us to this season. Of the top 15 teams in the BCS standings, which ones have had overtime games influence their destiny? There are several:

Team       BCS ranking   record   record w/o OT
Georgia        #4         10-2       9-2-1
LSU            #7         10-2      10-0-2
Hawaii         #12        11-0       9-0-2
Tennessee      #14         9-3       7-3-2   

#4 Georgia is 10-2, and has an outside chance at actually playing for the BCS title sporting 2 losses. But had their win over Alabama counted as a tie, would they be the highest 2-loss team? Not likely; they'd probably rank around ninth.

The other side of the coin is #7 Louisiana State, who has two losses, both in triple overtime. If the Tigers' record were 10-0-2 instead of 10-2, they'd be the only major undefeated team, and would certainly be ranked higher than any of the other 2-loss teams. They'd likely be at #4, if not higher. But two losses in a total of six overtime periods hurts them just as much as Virginia Tech's 2 losses, one of those 48-7...to LSU.

Hawaii is chasing a BCS birth, and at #12 this week they appear to be in good shape to get one. Lucky for them there is overtime, because two of their wins were achieved that way. Turn them into ties, and 11-0 becomes 9-0-2. They'd still be undefeated, but if you were a pollster and looked at who those ties were against, and saw 5-5-1 Louisiana Tech and 5-6-1 San Jose State, would you put the Warriors in the top 12?

Finally, Tennessee can thank overtime for its inclusion in the SEC championship game. The Volunteers won two SEC overtime games, giving them a 6-2 conference record. Pre-'96, that's a 4-2-2 record, putting them 2nd behind Georgia's 5-2-1 mark, and taking them out of contention for a BCS bowl game.

SportsRatings College Football Power Rating - week 13

West Virginia #1, Missouri #2. The Mountaineers' domination of Connecticut allows them to inherit the #1 spot vacated by Kansas, who falls to #5. Missouri is a close second, and Oklahoma (who also benefits from Missouri's win) jumps to third. LSU slips to fourth after their loss to Arkansas.

SportsRatings Overall Power Rating - week 13
lw  #  Team                         rec    Overall     Pts          W/L
4   1. West Virginia               10-1    36.60 [ 1]  28.83 [ 1]   7.77 [ 3]
3   2. Missouri                    11-1    36.05 [ 2]  26.58 [ 3]   9.47 [ 1]
6   3. Oklahoma                    10-2    32.41 [ 3]  26.67 [ 2]   5.73 [ 7]
2   4. LSU                         10-2    31.58 [ 4]  25.38 [ 5]   6.19 [ 5]
1   5. Kansas                      11-1    31.50 [ 5]  25.33 [ 6]   6.17 [ 6]
5   6. Ohio State                  11-1    30.56 [ 6]  23.10 [ 7]   7.46 [ 4]
7   7. Florida                      9-3    29.89 [ 7]  25.68 [ 4]   4.21 [12]
9   8. South Florida                9-3    26.72 [ 8]  22.49 [ 8]   4.22 [11]
8   9. Oregon                       8-3    24.53 [ 9]  21.11 [ 9]   3.41 [18]
12 10. Georgia                     10-2    23.85 [10]  18.19 [12]   5.66 [ 8]
13 11. Southern Cal                 9-2    23.19 [11]  19.62 [11]   3.57 [16]
11 12. Cincinnati                   9-3    22.65 [12]  19.67 [10]   2.97 [21]
10 13. Arizona St                   9-2    21.28 [13]  17.13 [14]   4.15 [13]
14 14. Clemson                      9-3    20.89 [14]  17.69 [13]   3.20 [19]
15 15. Virginia Tech               10-2    20.77 [15]  15.52 [17]   5.25 [ 9]
23 16. Arkansas                     8-4    19.01 [16]  16.30 [15]   2.70 [25]
18 17. Texas Tech                   8-4    18.11 [17]  15.96 [16]   2.15 [31]
17 18. Illinois                     9-3    17.93 [18]  14.01 [21]   3.91 [15]
19 19. Boston College              10-2    17.60 [19]  12.49 [22]   5.10 [10]
21 20. Auburn                       8-4    17.10 [20]  14.43 [18]   2.66 [26]
16 21. Texas                        9-3    16.86 [21]  14.23 [20]   2.62 [28]
26 22. Tennessee                    9-3    16.47 [22]  12.42 [23]   4.04 [14]
24 23. Penn State                   8-4    16.38 [23]  14.25 [19]   2.12 [33]
38 24. Hawaii                      11-0    15.25 [24]   6.15 [51]   9.09 [ 2]
22 25. Boise St                    10-2    14.67 [25]  11.82 [25]   2.84 [23]
 
Hawaii jumps 14 spots and lands at 24th, one position ahead of the Boise State Broncos, who they defeated on Friday. Arkansas also climbs quite a bit for beating LSU, while Connecticut falls nine spots to 29th after the disastrous West Virginia game.

Power Rating: Win-loss component
lw  #  Team                         rec    rating
5   1. Missouri                     11-1     9.47
4   2. Hawaii                       11-0     9.09
6   3. West Virginia                10-1     7.77
3   4. Ohio State                   11-1     7.46
2   5. LSU                          10-2     6.19
1   6. Kansas                       11-1     6.17
9   7. Oklahoma                     10-2     5.73
8   8. Georgia                      10-2     5.66
12  9. Virginia Tech                10-2     5.25
11 10. Boston College               10-2     5.10
18 11. South Florida                 9-3     4.22
16 12. Florida                       9-3     4.21
7  13. Arizona St                    9-2     4.15
20 14. Tennessee                     9-3     4.04
13 15. Illinois                      9-3     3.91
24 16. Southern Cal                  9-2     3.57
23 17. Brigham Young                 9-2     3.45
10 18. Oregon                        8-3     3.41
27 19. Clemson                       9-3     3.20
14 20. Connecticut                   9-3     3.11
21 21. Cincinnati                    9-3     2.97
22 22. Wisconsin                     9-3     2.90
15 23. Boise St                     10-2     2.84
25 24. Michigan                      8-4     2.74
40 25. Arkansas                      8-4     2.70 

Undefeated Hawaii ranks #2 in the Win/Loss component. The purpose of the Win/Loss component is to smooth out the results of the Points rating, insuring that teams that are winning get rewarded while teams with losses are penalized. While it doesn't push Hawaii very high in the overall power rating, it does move them up to a respectable top 25 placing.

Last week's #1 Kansas takes a big fall as they lose their undefeated status, and Arkansas gains a lot of ground for taking out LSU, a win that was valuable in both components.

While the above component is structured to be combined with the Points component, with a slight modification, it can be used (later in the season) to form a good "standalone" rating.

Power Rating: Modified "Standalone" Win-loss component
#   Team                         rec    rating
1.  Missouri                    11-1    10.28
2.  West Virginia               10-1     9.12
3.  LSU                         10-2     8.34
4.  Ohio State                  11-1     7.45
5.  Georgia                     10-2     7.35
6.  Hawaii                      11-0     7.10
7.  Oklahoma                    10-2     6.68
8.  Boston College              10-2     6.16
9.  Virginia Tech               10-2     5.97
10. Tennessee                    9-3     5.72
11. Kansas                      11-1     5.64
12. Florida                      9-3     5.46
13. South Florida                9-3     5.22
14. Arizona St                   9-2     5.21
15. Southern Cal                 9-2     5.05
16. Oregon                       8-3     4.79
17. Illinois                     9-3     4.21
18. Cincinnati                   9-3     3.70
19. Clemson                      9-3     3.70
20. Arkansas                     8-4     3.64
21. Connecticut                  9-3     3.50
22. Brigham Young                9-2     3.45
23. Auburn                       8-4     3.43
24. Virginia                     9-3     3.03
25. Kentucky                     7-5     3.01 

In this version Hawaii is at #6 and Kansas at #11. These two are pretty much reversed in the national polls, reflecting how voters incorporate margin of victory into their analyses. Kansas does not get a lot of "win points" for its schedule; neither does Hawaii, but they aren't hampered by a loss, and the Boise State win did as much for them as the rest of their schedule combined. Also note LSU rates ahead of Ohio State, and Georgia ahead of Hawaii, reflecting strength of schedule as well. The SEC fares well in general, with 3-loss Tennessee and Florida both in the top 12, and seven teams overall.

But back to the main power rating, and the Points component

Power Rating: Points component
lw  #  Team                         rec    rating  off    def
3   1. West Virginia               10-1    28.83  44.53  15.69
5   2. Oklahoma                    10-2    26.67  42.94  16.26
4   3. Missouri                    11-1    26.58  45.84  19.25
6   4. Florida                      9-3    25.68  47.87  22.18
1   5. LSU                         10-2    25.38  44.15  18.76
2   6. Kansas                      11-1    25.33  40.25  14.92
9   7. Ohio State                  11-1    23.10  32.19   9.08
8   8. South Florida                9-3    22.49  41.02  18.52
7   9. Oregon                       8-3    21.11  40.84  19.72
10 10. Cincinnati                   9-3    19.67  37.95  18.28

LSU and Kansas both suffer big drops for losing, but still rank among the top teams. Their new ratings reflect the new information gained last week, which doesn't drastically alter a reasonable opinion of how good they are. Oregon slips as well, but in their case it's a different matter. Clearly the Oregon of today isn't the same team as it was for most of the year. This is, of course, a drawback of power ratings. Each week Oregon plays in its hobbled state, the ratings are slightly "polluted" by basically having a mediocre team masquerade as a good one. UCLA gets much more credit than it should for beating the Ducks 16-0, as did Arizona for their win. To a lesser extent, teams that lost to Oregon get penalized too much, as Oregon's overall rating goes down. To account for this, either more information would need to be available to the rating, or manual adjustments (such as splitting the post-Dixon Oregon into its own team) would need to be made, but this leads to subjective calls and is rather unwieldy. It's just one of the many imperfections in any real-world rating system that have to be lived with.

Offense
#   Team                         rec    rating  off    def
1.  Florida                      9-3    25.68  47.87  22.18
2.  Missouri                    11-1    26.58  45.84  19.25
3.  West Virginia               10-1    28.83  44.53  15.69
4.  LSU                         10-2    25.38  44.15  18.76
5.  Oklahoma                    10-2    26.67  42.94  16.26
6.  Arkansas                     8-4    16.30  41.41  25.10
7.  South Florida                9-3    22.49  41.02  18.52
8.  Oregon                       8-3    21.11  40.84  19.72
9.  Kansas                      11-1    25.33  40.25  14.92
10. Texas Tech                   8-4    15.96  39.01  23.04

Oregon's offense takes a dive for being shut out. As said above, the current rating doesn't reflect Oregon's current offensive capability, and the downgrade is unfair to the earlier version of the team. Another systemic flaw: Arkansas' offense gets a boost for scoring 50 points on LSU, though of course a large amount of these were in the three overtimes. This one could be corrected, but most score sources don't even note overtime games, let alone the score at the end of regulation.

Defense
#   Team                         rec    rating  off    def
1.  Ohio State                  11-1    23.10  32.19   9.08
2.  Auburn                       8-4    14.43  26.89  12.45
3.  Southern Cal                 9-2    19.62  33.33  13.71
4.  Kansas                      11-1    25.33  40.25  14.92
5.  Virginia Tech               10-2    15.52  30.75  15.23
6.  West Virginia               10-1    28.83  44.53  15.69
7.  Michigan                     8-4    11.65  27.90  16.24
8.  Oklahoma                    10-2    26.67  42.94  16.26
9.  Utah                         8-4    10.03  27.00  16.97
10. Georgia                     10-2    18.19  35.97  17.78

A new face on the best-scoring-defense list is Utah, who held BYU to 17 points in a losing effort. I haven't looked at the yardage stats for that game but it should be interesting to see whether BYU had its usual dominating spread in total yardage or not.

Heisman Watch - week 13: Still undecided.

I couldn't decide yet. Even though the regular season is over for Darren McFadden and Tim Tebow, the stats are in, the games are played, but I still can't put one definitely ahead of the other. This week I was supposed to make up my mind between the two, and wait for the longshots to play their last game next week and crown the winner. But I'm going to wait until next week to decide anything, and until then there's a tie at first place.

You see, I expected Tim Tebow, having already satisfied my requirement that he have the most amazing season a sophomore has ever achieved, would pass Darren McFadden finally. I wrote last week that for McFadden to hold on, he would need 200+ yards in a win against #1 LSU and that throwing a touchdown pass wouldn't hurt. Well, McFadden rushed for 206 yards in a win against LSU on Friday. He threw a touchdown pass as well. I thought maybe Florida would get beat and make my decision for me. No dice; Tebow had his usual great game, playing with a broken hand even.

So right now they share the #1 spot for another week. What's worse, I couldn't even decide on my final five, i.e., the five New York invitees. Everyone on my list had a season's-best game this weekend. So I couldn't really eliminate Patrick White for rushing for nearly 200 yards in destroying Connecticut, nor Colt Brennan for throwing for almost 500 yards in Hawaii's marquee victory over Boise State, and of course not Chase Daniel for putting Missouri firmly in the national title picture.
 

Final 5 Candidates:

1. D. McFadden  24rsh  151yd 6.3av  1TD 0fmb; 2rec  30yd 0TD; 19ret; TD pass (W Troy)
1-1-1-1-2-1-1-  33rsh  195yd 5.9av  2TD 1fmb; 3rec  16yd 0TD; 27ret;         (L@Alab)
1-1-2-2-2-1-1   29rsh  173yd 6.0av  1TD 0fmb; 2rec  10yd 0TD; 25ret;         (L Ky)
                19rsh  138yd 7.3av  2TD 0fmb; 0rec   0yd 0TD;  0ret;         (W NTex)
                25rsh  122yd 4.9av  1TD 2fmb; 0rec   0yd 0TD;  0ret;         (W Chat)
                17rsh   43yd 2.5av  0TD 0fmb; 1rec   5yd 0TD; 29ret;         (L Aub)
                22rsh  110yd 5.0av  0TD 0fmb; 2rec  10yd 0TD;  0ret;         (W@Miss)
                19rsh   61yd 3.2av  4TD 1fmb; 3rec  22yd 0TD; 19ret;         (W FIU)
                34rsh  321yd 9.4av  1TD 0fmb; 1rec   4yd 0TD; 30ret; TD pass (W SCar)
                22rsh  117yd 5.3av  0TD 0fmb; 3rec  17yd 0TD; 39ret;         (L@Tenn)
                28rsh   88yd 3.1av  0TD 0fmb; 4rec  50yd 1TD; 24ret; TD pass (W MsSt)
                32rsh  206yd 6.4av  3TD 1fmb; 0rec   0yd 0TD; 49ret; TD pass (W@LSU)
               304rsh 1725yd 5.7av 15TD 5fmb;21rec 164yd 1TD;283ret;4TD pass

1. Tim Tebow     13-17  76%  300yd  3TD 0INT;  8rsh  38yd 4.8av  1TD 0fmb (W WKy)
x-x-10-9-8-8-8-  18-25  72%  236yd  3TD 0INT; 17rsh  93yd 5.5av  2TD 0fmb (W Troy)
10-8-8-7-5-3-1   14-19  74%  299yd  2TD 1INT; 18rsh  61yd 3.4av  2TD 0fmb (W Tenn)
                 20-34  59%  261yd  2TD 0INT; 27rsh 166yd 6.1av  2TD 0fmb (W@Miss)
                 20-27  74%  201yd  1TD 1INT; 19rsh  75yd 3.9av  1TD 0fmb (L Aub)
                 12-26  46%  158yd  2TD 1INT; 16rsh  67yd 4.2av  1TD 0fmb (L@LSU)
                 18-26  69%  256yd  4TD 0INT; 20rsh  78yd 3.9av  1TD 0fmb (W@KY)
                 14-22  64%  236yd  1TD 0INT; 13rsh -15yd  -1av  2TD 1fmb (L GA)
                 22-27  81%  281yd  3TD 1INT;  6rsh  35yd 5.8av  2TD 0fmb (W Vand)
                 22-32  69%  304yd  2TD 1INT; 26rsh 120yd 4.6av  5TD 0fmb (W@SCar)
                 25-34  74%  338yd  3TD 1INT; 11rsh  31yd 2.8av  1TD 0fmb (W FAU)
                 19-28  68%  262yd  3TD 0INT; 13rsh  89yd 6.8yd  2TD 0fmb (W FSU)
                217-317 68% 3132yd 29TD 6INT;194rsh 838yd 4.3av 22TD 1fmb

3. Pat White     10-18  58%  192yd  2TD 0INT;  9rsh   97yd 10.8av  2TD 0fmb (W WKy)
10-8-7-7-7-9-7-  13-18  72%  149yd  2TD 0INT; 17rsh  125yd  7.4av  1TD 0fmb (W@Marsh)
9-9-9-9-7-5-3     8-13  62%   95yd  0TD 0INT; 11rsh   22yd  2.0av  1TD 1fmb (W@Mary)
                 18-20  90%  181yd  2TD 0INT;  9rsh   42yd  4.7av  2TD 0fmb (W ECar)
                 12-18  67%  100yd  0TD 1INT;  9rsh   36yd  4.0av  0TD 0fmb (L SoFLA)
                 12-15  80%  148yd  1TD 0INT; 14rsh   89yd  6.4av  1TD 0fmb (W@Syr)
                  8-12  67%   61yd  2TD 1INT;  5rsh   89yd 17.8av  1TD 0fmb (W MsSt)
                 10-16  63%  144yd  0TD 0INT; 22rsh  156yd  7.1av  1TD 0fmb (W@Rut)
                 16-25  64%  181yd  2TD 0INT; 24rsh  147yd  6.1av  1TD 2fmb (W@Lou)
                 13-19  68%  140yd  0TD 1INT; 27rsh  155yd  5.7av  2TD 2fmb (W@Cin)
                  9-13  69%  107yd  1TD 1INT; 16rsh  186yd 11.6av  2TD 0fmb (W Conn)
                129-187 69% 1498yd 12TD 4INT;163rsh 1144yd  7.0av 14TD 5fmb

4. C. Brennan   34-40  85%  416yd  6TD  0INT; 3rsh 23yd 7.7av 0TD 0fmb (W NColorado)
5-2-2-1-1-2-2-  43-61  70%  548yd  4TD  1INT;11rsh -8yd -.7av 1TD 2fmb (W@LA Tech)
4-4-3-3-3-4-4   26-32  81%  298yd  2TD  0INT; 9rsh 19yd 2.1av 3TD 0fmb (W@UNLV)
                 ---   ---  ---    ---   ---   ---  ---  ---  ---  --- (W CharSo) DNP
                30-49  61%  369yd  3TD  5INT; 5rsh -2yd -.4av 1TD 0fmb (W@Idaho)
                19-25  76%  219yd  1TD  0INT; 3rsh  7yd 2.3av 0TD 0fmb (W UtahSt)
                44-75  59%  545yd  4TD  4INT;15rsh -1yd -.1av 1TD 0fmb (W@SJst)
                29-46  63%  425yd  6TD  1INT; 4rsh 13yd 3.3av 0TD 1fmb (W NMexSt)
                28-39  72%  396yd  2TD  1INT; 6rsh  5yd 0.8av 1TD 1fmb (W Fresno)
                 2-2  100%   21yd  0TD  0INT; 0rsh  0yd   0av 0TD 0fmb (W@Nevada)
                40-53  75%  495yd  5TD  2INT; 9rsh 18yd 2.0av 1TD 0fmb (W BoiseSt)
               295-422 70% 3732yd 33TD 14INT;65rsh 74yd 1.1av 8TD 4fmb

5. C. Daniel     37-54  69%  359yd  3TD 0INT;11rsh  -6yd -.5av 0TD 1fmb (W@Ill)
x-x-x-x-x-x-x-   31-42  74%  330yd  5TD 0INT;11rsh  55yd 5.0av 0TD 0fmb (W@Miss)
x-x-x-x-9-7-5    27-46  59%  328yd  2TD 2INT; 5rsh  60yd  12av 1TD 0fmb (W WMich)
                 21-34  62%  294yd  3TD 2INT; 1rsh   7yd 7.0av 0TD 0fmb (W IllSt)
                 33-47  70%  401yd  2TD 0INT;11rsh  72yd 6.5av 2TD 0fmb (W Neb)
                 37-47  79%  361yd  1TD 2INT;13rsh  -1yd -.1av 0TD 1fmb (L@Okla)
                 14-19  74%  210yd  1TD 1INT; 7rsh  11yd 1.6av 0TD 0fmb (W TTech)
                 28-37  76%  250yd  1TD 1INT; 4rsh  11yd 2.8av 0TD 0fmb (W ISU)
                 26-44  59%  421yd  5TD 1INT; 6rsh  24yd 6.0av 0TD 0fmb (W@Colo)
                 27-35  77%  352yd  3TD 0INT;10rsh  15yd 1.5av 0TD 1fmb (W TexAM)
                 28-41  68%  284yd  4TD 0INT; 7rsh   4yd 0.6av 0TD 0fmb (W@KSt)
                 40-49  82%  361yd  3TD 0INT; 7rsh   6yd 0.9av 0TD 0fmb (W=KU)
                349-495 71% 3951yd 33TD 9INT;93rsh 258yd 2.8av 3TD 3fmb

This coming weekend, three of the five have another game. Two are playing essentially for a birth in the national title game, and the other is playing to achieve an undefeated season. Realistically, for me Colt Brennan is playing for a finish in the top five; I doubt I would put him in the "vote counting" final three given Hawaii's light schedule. Pat White, with a good performance, could stay in the top three. His numbers just aren't there for a win, and next week's game is one West Virginia is expected to win. Chase Daniel, though, could end up just about anywhere. A loss possibly drops him from the top five. A win over the Sooners keeps him there and could put him in the top three. An astounding game and he could score a major, come-from-behind win...but I doubt it. He is having the strongest finish over the last month of any player, and unlike the other two, he's facing top competition in his final game. 

All I could settle on was eliminating Todd Reesing, the loser in the Kansas-Missouri clash. He threw two interceptions and the Jayhawks' undefeated status is bust. Still, he had incredible stats for the year. I also moved Dennis Dixon further down the list than I thought I would have to. If any of the three that play next week screws up or loses, I'll move Dixon back into the top five. And either way, there's no set limit to how many are invited to New York. Lately it's been four or five, but I think this year it should be six: the five above and Dennis Dixon. After all, he stood a very good chance of winning it if he had remained healthy.

The final stats for those removed from consideration:

D. Dixon         9-15  60%  134yd  2TD 0INT; 15rsh 141yd 9.4av 1TD 0fmb (W Houston)
x-x-9-8-4-4-3-  16-25  64%  292yd  3TD 0INT; 16rsh  76yd 4.8av 1TD 0fmb (W@Mich)
2-2-1-1-1-2-x   14-20  70%  139yd  2TD 0INT;  8rsh  59yd 7.4av 1TD 0fmb (W Fresno)
                28-37  76%  374yd  4TD 0INT;  9rsh   8yd 0.9av 1TD 1fmb (W@Stanford)
                31-44  70%  306yd  1TD 2INT;  8rsh  17yd 2.1av 1TD 0fmb (L Cal)
                21-28  75%  287yd  3TD 0INT;  7rsh  16yd 2.3av 1TD 0fmb (W WashSt)
                19-30  63%  196yd  1TD 1INT; 12rsh  99yd 8.3av 1TD 0fmb (W@Wash)
                16-25  64%  157yd  0TD 0INT; 17rsh  76yd 4.5av 1TD 0fmb (W USC)
                13-22  59%  189yd  4TD 0INT; 11rsh  57yd 5.2av 0TD 1fmb (W ASU)
                 5-8   63%   62yd  0TD 1INT;  2rsh  34yd  17av 1TD 0fmb (L@Ariz)
                 ---   ---  ---    ---  ---    ---  ---  ---   ---  --- (L@UCLA) DNP
               172-254 68% 2136yd 20TD 4INT;105rsh 583yd 5.6av 9TD 2fmb

T. Reesing       20-29  69%  261yd  4TD 0INT; 6rsh   8yd 1.3av 0TD 0fmb (W CMich)
x-x-x-x-x-x-x-   13-23  57%  257yd  2TD 0INT; 5rsh  31yd 6.2av 0TD 0fmb (W SE LA)
x-x-x-x-8-6-x    17-36  47%  313yd  4TD 0INT;11rsh  19yd 1.7av 0TD 0fmb (W Toledo)
                 23-37  62%  368yd  1TD 1INT; 8rsh  47yd 5.9av 1TD 0fmb (W FIU)
                 22-35  63%  267yd  3TD 3INT; 8rsh  12yd 1.5av 0TD 0fmb (W@KState)
                 14-31  45%  186yd  2TD 0INT;10rsh  14yd 1.4av 0TD 0fmb (W Baylor)
                 20-29  69%  153yd  1TD 0INT; 7rsh  84yd  12av 0TD 0fmb (W@Colo)
                 21-33  64%  180yd  0TD 0INT;11rsh -22yd  -2av 0TD 0fmb (W@TexAM)
                 30-41  73%  354yd  6TD 0INT; 4rsh  10yd 2.5av 0TD 0fmb (W Neb)
                 27-40  68%  318yd  3TD 0INT; 2rsh  -6yd  -3av 0TD 0fmb (W@OK St)
                 21-26  81%  253yd  4TD 0INT; 4rsh   5yd 1.3av 0TD 0fmb (W ISU)
                 28-49  57%  349yd  2TD 2INT; 6rsh   1yd  .2av 1TD 0fmb (L=Mizz)
                256-409 63% 3259yd 32TD 6INT;82rsh 203yd 2.5av 2TD 0fmb

The updated 5T (Total-TDs-To-Total-Turnovers) Chart:

candidate      TDs   TOs   score1  score2  total
Tebow          51     7     6.38    14.7   21.0
Daniel         36    12     2.77     8.0   10.8
Brennan        41    18     2.16     7.7    9.8
McFadden       20     5     3.33     5.0    8.3
P. White       26     9     2.60     5.7    8.3  

Next week: the Decision (I hope).

Coach of the Year - week 13 update: Dead Heat!!

It's down to the nitty-gritty now. With only one weekend of limited action left, the race is down to two men, and according to my simplistic but fun coach of the year algorithm, it's exactly tied! The two men are, of course, Kansas' Mark Mangino and Illinois' Ron Zook.

What this means is there's no clear leader, but one of these two is sure to get the national honor. For the purposes of this algorithm, the winner will be determined by the final AP poll, in which Kansas or Illinois may move up or down slightly depending on what the other teams do! Talk about not controlling your own destiny!

Mark Mangino, Kansas 64 points (-5) last week: #1 - The Mangino magic finally ran out last night as Missouri defeated Kansas. Still, the Jayhawks finished with an 11-1 record, up from last year's 6-6. They slid to #7 in the AP poll, but that's far better than they were expected to do: they received not a single vote at the beginning of the season.

Ron Zook, Illinois 64 points (+3) last week: #2 - The Illini were idle but managed to move up three spots in the AP poll to #15, after having no poll support in the pre-season. You can't blame the pollsters for lack of vision, however—the Illini only won two games last year, and I doubt even most hardcore Illinois fans thought they'd be looking at a New Year's Day bowl (and potentially still, a BCS bowl) this season after winning nine games!

others: Randy Edsall, Connecticut (43 points), Troy Calhoun, Air Force (41.5 points), Brian Kelly, Cincinnati (39 points), George O'Leary, Central Florida (39 points), Gary Pinkel, Missouri (37 points), Al Groh, Virginia (34 points), Dennis Erickson, Arizona State (31 points), Tommy Bowden, Clemson (29 points).

The basic argument between the two comes down to this: which form of exceeding expectations is considered more significant? Mangino's squad has been strictly average the last few years, until this season's breakthrough. Zook, on the other hand, took a team that won 2 games in 2006 and went 9-3 with them this year. So is going from middle-of-the-road to top 10 (nearly top 5) better than going from bottom-of-the-barrel to top 25?

There are arguments based on coaching style as well. Zook hasn't had a good reputation in recent years as a game coach, mainly being known as a recruiter, and has had some criticism this year as well about his gametime decisions. But he's also received praise for his own improvement, and there certainly aren't any "fireRonZook.com" sites popping up in Illinois. Mangino's success has also been written off by some as a product of his capable assistants. Others dispute that, or say that since the blame ultimately sticks to the head coach, so should the credit.

It's probably certain that, had Kansas won last night, Mangino would have sealed up the honor, and certainly with a Big 12 Championship he would have. But now it's close, real close.

And they said the Heisman race was neck and neck!

Personal Foul: Giving Him the Business.

According to some net sources, to give somebody "the business" was originally American street slang for beating them up, or harassing them in some manner. It became popularized by the sitcom Leave It To Beaver in the 1950s.

Beaver, after Wally "gave him the business" in the form of the world's first fauxhawk.

Since then, both NFL and college football referees have thrown the yellow flag for "giving him the business" every couple of decades or so.

Most recently, on November 24, 2007: Maryland vs. North Carolina State:

college football, scores, rankings, games, odds

and from 1986, Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets:

college football, scores, rankings, games, odds

SportsRatings College Football Top 25 - week 13

Changes at the top. With former #1 Kansas and #2 LSU losing, it's no surprise there's some rearrangement at the top. But instead of idle #3 Ohio State moving up, it's Missouri and West Virginia claiming the top spots.

The Missouri Tigers have just a road loss to Oklahoma plus three wins over top 25 teams, including the only win over Kansas. This puts them firmly ahead of #2 West Virginia, who plastered Connecticut 66-21 Saturday, and #3 Ohio State, whose only top 25 win is over Wisconsin.

Hawaii and Kansas make an interesting comparison. Both have fairly weak overall schedules, though Kansas' is essentially average for Division I-A while Hawaii's is very weak. Yet the Warriors now have a top 25 win to go with their undefeated record, while Kansas has nothing to show but the Missouri loss. With that, it's hard to justify putting Kansas ahead, unless of course you look at victory margins, in which case Hawaii would barely make the top 25. In this ranking, I emphasize key games, that is, losses, and wins over top 25 competition, while forgiving close calls. By that paradigm, Hawaii ranks ahead of the Jayhawks. They'll have to earn their high ranking in their bowl game, as it appears they're BCS bound.

I also slipped Oklahoma ahead of Kansas, by virtue of their earlier win over Missouri. I've edited slightly after the fact and moved LSU ahead of KU, too; LSU's schedule is too much harder than Kansas' to ignore just because of 2 overtime losses. The 2-loss teams are ordered using these considerations: Oklahoma and #6 LSU have similar profiles, but Oklahoma has the only win over #1 Missouri. LSU and #8 Boston College both have wins over Virginia Tech, with LSU's clearly being more convincing. Ninth-ranked Virginia Tech has only two losses, both to top ten teams, to go with its two wins over top 25 opposition, placing them clearly ahead of #10 Georgia, who doesn't have a disastrous loss to Stanford like #11 Southern Cal, who jumps nine spots after defeating Arizona State convincingly last Thursday for their first top 25 win.

lw   #  Team             rec important games(losses; wins over top 25)
5    1. Missouri        11-1 L@OK41-31;w=Ill40-34,wTTech41-10;w=KU36-28
4    2. West Virginia   10-1 L@SoFLA21-13;w@Cincy28-23;wUConn66-21
3    3. Ohio State      11-1 L Ill28-21;wWis38-17
7    4. Hawaii          11-0 wBoiseSt39-27
9    5. Oklahoma        10-2 L@Col27-24,L@TTech34-27;wTex28-21,wMiz41-31
2    6. LSU             10-2 L@KY43-37ot;L Ark50-48ot;wVT48-7,wFLA28-24
1    7. Kansas          11-1 L=Mizz36-28
10   8. Boston College  10-2 L@Mary42-35,L FSU27-17;w@VT14-10,w@Clem20-17
11   9. Virginia Tech   10-2 L@LSU48-7,L BC14-10;w@Clem41-23;w@Virg33-21
12  10. Georgia         10-2 L SC16-12,L@Tenn35-14;wFLA42-30
20  11. USC              9-2 L Stan24-23,L@Ore24-17;w@ASU44-24
18  12. Florida          9-3 L Aub20-17,L@LSU28-24,L@GA42-30;wTenn59-20
8   13. Oregon           8-3 L@Ariz34-24,L Cal31-24;L@UCLA16-0;wUSC24-17,wASU35-23
16  14. Cincinnati       9-3 L@Pitt24-17,L Lou28-24,L WVA28-23;w@USF38-33,wConn27-3
13  15. Virginia         9-3 L@Wyoming23-3,L@NCSt29-24,L VT33-21;wConn17-16
14  16. Connecticut      9-3 L@Virg17-16,L@Cin27-3,L@WVa66-21;wUSF22-15
17  17. South Florida    9-3 L@Rut30-27,L@Conn22-15,L Cin38-33;wWVA21-13
21  18. Illinois         9-3 L@Iowa10-6,L Mich27-17,L=Miz40-34;wWisc31-26,w@OSU28-21
6   19. Arizona State    9-2 L@Ore35-23,L USC44-24
15  20. Boise State     10-2 L@Wash24-10,L@Hawaii39-27
19  21. Texas            9-3 L KSt41-21,L@TexAM38-30,L OK28-21;wTTech59-43
22  22. Wisconsin        9-3 L@PSU38-7,L@Ill31-26,L@OSU38-17
23  23. BYU              9-2 L@UCLA27-17,L@Tulsa55-47
24  24. Clemson          9-3 L@GT31-3,L VT41-23,L BC20-17
25  25. Texas Tech       8-4 L Col31-26,L@OkSt49-45,L@Mizz41-10,L@Tex59-43;wOK34-27
    25t Tennessee        9-3 L@Cal45-31,L@Ala41-17,L@FLA59-20;wGA35-14
 
key: Loss to ranked team
     Loss to unranked team
     Loss to team with losing record
     Win over ranked team
     Win over ranked team who falls out this week

The pack from 12th through 19th is very close. Florida kicks off the three-loss teams; all of their losses are close and to good teams. They could easily have stayed at #18 where they were last week, though, depending on what arguments you make, but their win over FSU was dominant. #13 Oregon is a team that's very hard to fairly rank. With Dennis Dixon, they're a top five team; without him, they're top 25 at best, perhaps even average. I give them credit for their entire season here, ranking them just below the two 2-loss teams they beat. They still have to play rival Oregon State, which could be the nail in their top 25 coffin.

The next four teams have a very logical order: both #14 Cincinnati and #15 Virginia beat #16 Connecticut, with the Cavs eeking out a 1-point victory, and the Huskies (like the Bearcats) having a win over #17 South Florida.

Illinois moves up three spots to #18, and if they win their bowl game could have a good argument to leap into the top ten; one of their three losses was to #1 Missouri, and one of their two top-25-wins is over #3 Ohio State. Arizona State, though they have no bad losses, also has no quality wins; their best victim is 7-4 Oregon State. Still, this puts them well ahead of Boise State, who lost to Washington early in the year.

Texas, who has one marginal top-25 win, places 21st, followed by Wisconsin, BYU, and Clemson, who have none. Idle Texas Tech holds on at #25. They are joined by Tennessee, who is pushed into the rankings by virtue of Arkansas' win over LSU. The Volunteers beat Arkansas convincingly a few weeks ago, and at 9-3 slip into a tie for 25th since no teams fall out of the rankings this week. They'll have a chance to make a big leap up when they face LSU in the Big 12 championship game next Saturday.

Statement: West Virginia 66, Connecticut 21

This win by the Mountaineers may solidify their position ahead of Ohio State in the BCS Championship Game. Until now, their year-end résumés looked to be roughly equal. Connecticut is about as good as any team the Buckeyes have beaten this year, and they never took care of business like this.

Many people have said it's unfair that Ohio State, who lost a game late, should necessarily be put behind West Virginia, who suffered a loss earlier in the year. They have a point. But if you look at their seasons as a whole, there's no real reason to put either team in front. Fair or not, West Virginia was in the driver's seat. After this game, I don't think people will feel bad about the Mountaineers getting the national title shot, assuming they win next week.

Also, Oregon's loss to UCLA puts USC in the Rose Bowl—against Ohio State. That's a classic Rose Bowl rivalry, and a matchup of the two best defenses in the country. College football fans outside of Columbus (and Eugene) should be glad things worked out this way.

Week 13 Preview - part II: Saturday's slate

Can Saturday live up to the last couple of days? Don't know; can't wait to find out!

Florida State (7-4) at #18 Florida (8-3) - The importance of this game is limited to the Heisman Trophy. After Darren McFadden's 200+ yards and touchdown pass in beating #1 LSU, the Heisman race is once more up for grabs. A Florida loss would magnify the chief argument against Tebow—the losses. For me, it would nearly seal the deal for McFadden; for most observers, it would make the race neck-and-neck, and open the door for Chase Daniel, or perhaps even Todd Reesing, for consideration. Even Pat White can muddy the waters with a great performance today.

#11 Virginia Tech (9-2) at #13 Virginia (9-2) - Winner gets a spot in the ACC Championship game against #10 Boston College. This is the most important this game has been in a long time. Virginia Tech's losses have come against Boston College and LSU; Virginia's losses on the other hand are to North Carolina State and Wyoming. This would imply that the Hokies are the better team, but if the Cavs play their best at home, they might pull out yet another 1- or 2- point win.

Tennessee (8-3) at Kentucky (7-4) - Both of these teams beat Arkansas, who just beat LSU, so the winner here will get in my top 25. Kentucky, of course, is the other team that beat LSU in 3 overtimes. Tennessee dodged a bullet against Vanderbilt, and a win puts them into the SEC championship game where they'd get their own shot at LSU and a BCS bowl birth. Last week I thought the Vols would be upset here, now I'm not sure what I think about this game.

Utah (8-3) at #23 BYU (8-2) - The Utes try to stake their claim to being a top 25 squad, just a couple months after starting out 1-3. BYU started out 1-2 and is also looking for their 8th straight win. Something's gotta give! I favor the Cougars to win this one comfortably; they're on a roll like last year's, they've already won the Mountain West, and now they want to finish as strong as they can.

#8 Oregon (8-2) at UCLA (5-5) - Against Arizona, Oregon looked so poor without Dennis Dixon that USC fans are practically booking their flights to Pasedena. Which would be silly, not just because they can take the bus there but also because Oregon is still a very good team, and its foes have had their problems. UCLA, of course, lost to Notre Dame among other embarassing losses. But they've played well at times, too. This is an important game for the bowl matchups...how far Oregon falls will determine a lot of fates. If they manage to win out, the Ducks are in the Rose Bowl. It all depends on how much confidence they have without their leader.

#14 Connecticut (9-2) at #4 West Virginia (9-2) - This game certainly grew in importance due to the event of Friday afternoon. With a win the Mountaineers likely earn a spot in the national championship game. They still face Pittsburgh next week, which would be a gimme in a sane season. At the very least, the winner of this game clinches a BCS birth. At this point, all of the favorites for the national title game have two more games they must win.

#5 Missouri (10-1) vs. #1 Kansas (11-0) - This game is huge. For the Big 12, for the national championship, and for the Heisman to some extent. I really think the notice Chase Daniel is getting is mostly because there has to be a #2, and with most other candidates falling by the wayside other than Tim Tebow, he claimed the spot. If Missouri wins out, he'd be up there but I still don't see him as the winner. He'd need to have an amazing couple of games even with the prominent victories. The same goes for Todd Reesing, who I think has better stats and an undefeated team to boot.

But as for the national title implications, it's clear: one of these teams will win here, and then must beat Oklahoma. Otherwise Ohio State takes their place. With LSU falling, whoever wins this game will probably hold the #1 spot in my Top 25. Kansas is there and would solidify it with a win, and Missouri's resume is strong already: a loss to Oklahoma, and wins over Illinois and Texas Tech.

Arkansas 50, #2 LSU 48, 3OT

The most interesting Heisman race just got even more interesting.

Darren McFadden: 32 rushes, 205 yards, 3TDs, 1 fumble; 3-6 passing, 34 yards, 1 TD; 59 return yards

That, and beating the #1 team in the polls, should put him back in the race yet again. Depending on what Tim Tebow does tomorrow, it's going to be close. If Florida loses, McFadden should be the leader. Then there's the Chase Daniel-Todd Reesing wildcard, one of whom will have another game after tomorrow's showdown.

National Championship: LSU is out. West Virginia or Ohio State is in. The Mountaineers have to beat Connecticut still. And Missouri/Kansas has to beat Oklahoma. I like Ohio State's odds to get in.

I'd really like to see the Buckeyes in the Rose Bowl against USC. And if both Connecticut and Oklahoma win? Ohio State will face a 2-loss team for the title. For the first time ever, the national champion could be a 2-loss team.

Which 2-loss team would make it? Georgia, if they beat LSU. If not, the next highest ranked is Virginia Tech—but would they deserve to be ahead of the LSU team that beat them 48-7? Next in line: Oregon. But can they win out without Dixon? After them, Oklahoma. If they beat Missouri/Kansas, they'd probably get in.

What a crazy season.

Close but no cigar: Colorado 65, Nebraska 51

Well at least two of my prognoses have come true...sort of. I picked USC to wipe out Arizona State, which happened; and I told everyone to watch the Colorado-Nebraska game because it would be exciting and high scoring, even if meaningless.

Not meaningless to everyone, of course. Both teams were playing to avoid a losing season. That honor goes to the Colorado Buffaloes, 65-51 winners. The game was even more high-scoring than the 56-51 result I pulled out of the air. And though I didn't specify, I was leaning toward Nebraska being the one to finish 6-6. It's fitting, however, that Colorado gets the win, because they're more deserving of a non-losing year than Nebraska. They've beaten Oklahoma and Texas Tech this season, while the Huskers have suffered several blowouts.

The over/under on the game was 61. Colorado covered that by themselves! This suggests Vegas was expecting something along the lines of a 33-27 game.

Once I digest today's action along with yesterday's food, I'll preview tomorrow's slate of games.

Heisman Trophy playoff brackets

|      Round One         Round Two
|     (Nov. 23-24)       (Dec. 1st)
|
|
|     Tim Tebow      
|     (vs. FSU)       |
|                     |    winner   
|                     |(season done) |
|   Darren McFadden   |              |
|     (vs. LSU)                      |
|                                    |
|                                    |
|                                    |   Heisman Trophy winner   
|                                    | (loser takes 2nd-4th place)
|                                    |
|                                    |
|   Chase Daniel                     |
|     (vs. KU)        |              |
|                     |    winner    |
|                     |(vs. Oklahoma)
|   Todd Reesing      |
|   (vs. Missouri)
|
|
|
|
|
|  Consolation bracket:
|
|
|
|     Pat White      
|    (vs. UConn)      |
|                     |    winner   
|                     |(1 game left) |
|   Colt Brennan      |              |
|  (vs. Boise St.)                   |
|                                    |
|                                    |
|                                    |  2nd or 3rd Place finisher 
|                                    |
|                                    |
|Tebow/McFadden loser                |
|                     |              |
|                     |    winner    |
|                     | (season over) 
|   Dennis Dixon      |             
|  (done for year)                  

|

NFL Power Rating thru week 11 (11/19)

Hardly any change this week, though Tennessee takes a dive from #9 to #15 after their Monday night loss to Denver.

rnk Team                         rec     overall     Pts[rank]   W/L[rank]
1.  New England Patriots        10-0    41.40 [ 1]  27.21 [ 1]  14.18 [ 1]
2.  Dallas Cowboys               9-1    19.21 [ 2]  12.66 [ 3]   6.54 [ 2]
3.  Indianapolis Colts           8-2    16.89 [ 3]  13.11 [ 2]   3.78 [ 4]
4.  Green Bay Packers            9-1    15.89 [ 4]  10.58 [ 4]   5.30 [ 3]
5.  Pittsburgh Steelers          7-3     9.70 [ 5]   8.44 [ 5]   1.25 [11]
6.  San Diego Chargers           5-5     7.17 [ 6]   5.87 [ 6]   1.30 [ 9]
7.  New York Giants              7-3     6.86 [ 7]   4.57 [ 8]   2.29 [ 5]
8.  Philadelphia Eagles          5-5     5.63 [ 8]   4.62 [ 7]   1.01 [15]
9.  Washington Redskins          5-5     4.27 [ 9]   3.19 [ 9]   1.07 [13]
10. Jacksonville Jaguars         7-3     4.03 [10]   1.99 [10]   2.03 [ 6]
11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers         6-4     3.16 [11]   1.88 [11]   1.27 [10]
12. Seattle Seahawks             6-4     1.76 [12]   0.83 [13]   0.92 [16]
13. Minnesota Vikings            4-6     1.63 [13]   0.94 [12]   0.68 [18]
14. Detroit Lions                6-4     1.24 [14]  -0.10 [14]   1.35 [ 8]
15. Tennessee Titans             6-4     0.97 [15]  -0.43 [16]   1.41 [ 7]
16. Chicago Bears                4-6     0.82 [16]  -0.20 [15]   1.02 [14]
17. Cleveland Browns             6-4    -0.03 [17]  -0.87 [17]   0.83 [17]
18. Houston Texans               5-5    -1.90 [18]  -2.57 [19]   0.67 [19]
19. Kansas City Chiefs           4-6    -1.99 [19]  -2.61 [20]   0.62 [20]
20. New York Jets                3-7    -2.02 [20]  -2.33 [18]   0.30 [27]
21. Arizona Cardinals            5-5    -2.32 [21]  -2.90 [21]   0.58 [21]
22. Cincinnati Bengals           3-7    -3.01 [22]  -3.29 [22]   0.27 [28]
23. Denver Broncos               5-5    -3.23 [23]  -4.32 [24]   1.08 [12]
24. Buffalo Bills                4-6    -3.84 [24]  -4.29 [23]   0.45 [24]
25. Oakland Raiders              2-8    -5.26 [25]  -5.44 [26]   0.18 [29]
26. Carolina Panthers            4-6    -5.98 [26]  -6.46 [27]   0.47 [23]
27. New Orleans Saints           4-6    -6.07 [27]  -6.56 [28]   0.48 [22]
28. Baltimore Ravens             4-6    -7.88 [28]  -8.21 [29]   0.33 [25]
29. Atlanta Falcons              3-7    -9.64 [29]  -9.95 [30]   0.30 [26]
30. St. Louis Rams               2-8   -14.53 [30] -14.66 [31]   0.12 [30]
31. San Francisco 49ers          2-8   -15.28 [31] -15.41 [32]   0.12 [31]
32. Miami Dolphins               0-10  -16.22 [32]  -5.29 [25] -10.92 [32]

The Rams push ahead of the 49ers, whom they beat on Sunday. The 49ers only wins are against the Rams and Arizona in their first two games, and by point margins they are the new worst team in the league.

rnk Team                         rec    margin  off    def
1.  New England Patriots        10-0    27.21  40.85  13.64
2.  Indianapolis Colts           8-2    13.11  28.24  15.12
3.  Dallas Cowboys               9-1    12.66  33.88  21.21
4.  Green Bay Packers            9-1    10.58  27.13  16.54
5.  Pittsburgh Steelers          7-3     8.44  23.55  15.10
6.  San Diego Chargers           5-5     5.87  24.55  18.68
7.  Philadelphia Eagles          5-5     4.62  21.48  16.86
8.  New York Giants              7-3     4.57  23.33  18.76
9.  Washington Redskins          5-5     3.19  20.70  17.51
10. Jacksonville Jaguars         7-3     1.99  20.87  18.87
11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers         6-4     1.88  18.42  16.53
12. Minnesota Vikings            4-6     0.94  20.61  19.66
13. Seattle Seahawks             6-4     0.83  18.70  17.86
14. Detroit Lions                6-4    -0.10  23.63  23.73
15. Chicago Bears                4-6    -0.20  19.87  20.07
16. Tennessee Titans             6-4    -0.43  19.27  19.70
17. Cleveland Browns             6-4    -0.87  28.45  29.32
18. New York Jets                3-7    -2.33  20.11  22.45
19. Houston Texans               5-5    -2.57  22.75  25.32
20. Kansas City Chiefs           4-6    -2.61  14.37  16.98
21. Arizona Cardinals            5-5    -2.90  21.95  24.86
22. Cincinnati Bengals           3-7    -3.29  25.60  28.90
23. Buffalo Bills                4-6    -4.29  14.41  18.70
24. Denver Broncos               5-5    -4.32  21.02  25.34
25. Miami Dolphins               0-10   -5.29  18.64  23.94
26. Oakland Raiders              2-8    -5.44  16.65  22.10
27. Carolina Panthers            4-6    -6.46  15.79  22.25
28. New Orleans Saints           4-6    -6.56  21.00  27.56
29. Baltimore Ravens             4-6    -8.21  12.43  20.64
30. Atlanta Falcons              3-7    -9.95  13.58  23.53
31. St. Louis Rams               2-8   -14.66  12.89  27.55
32. San Francisco 49ers          2-8   -15.41  10.10  25.51

The Dolphins moved up another spot to 25th, while going 0-10. While this coming Sunday (at Pittsburgh) doesn't look too promising for Miami, they have a three game stretch (NY Jets at home, at Buffalo, Baltimore at home) during which they should definitely get their first win—and probably their 6th and 7th 3-point losses.

Can You Guess the 20 Most Valuable College Football Teams?

From Forbes via Yahoo! Sports comes an interesting article about the 20 most valuable college football teams. Can you guess all 20? I tried, and got 17 of the 20 correct. To try it yourself, write down 20 teams you think will make the list, then compare it to the answers at the bottom of the article (cleverly hidden as white text; select all text to reveal the answers).

Here's a hint: the list is formulated based on "what the football programs contribute to four important beneficiaries: their universities, athletic departments, their conferences, via the distribution of bowl-game revenue, and local communities with a vested interest in the team."

In other words: huge stadiums with large attendance, stadium renovations adding premium seating, merchandising royalties, TV revenues, bowl game revenues, loyal boosters, corporate sponsorship deals, etc.

The answers (select text to reveal):

1.  Notre Dame
2.  Texas
3.  Georgia
4.  Michigan
5.  Florida
6.  LSU
7.  Tennessee
8.  Auburn
9.  Alabama
10. Ohio State
11. Oklahoma
12. South Carolina
13. Penn State
14. Southern Cal
15. Arkansas
16. Texas A&M
17. Washington
18. Nebraska
19. Michigan State
20. Wisconsin

My omissions:

Included Florida State, Iowa, and BYU instead of South Carolina, Michigan State, and Washington

Yardage Stats - week 12 (thru 11/17/2007)

Yet again, LSU and BYU remain the leaders in overall yardage difference.

Total Yardage Differential (adjusted for opposition): 
Rank Team                         Rec   Yards   Off  Def
1.   LSU                         10-1   207.9   13    3
2.   Brigham Young                8-2   203.2    8    8
3.   Southern Cal                 8-2   191.1   37    2
4.   Texas Tech                   8-4   186.0    2   30
5.   Oregon                       8-2   181.8    1   41
6.   Kansas                      11-0   170.3   14   11
7.   West Virginia                9-1   167.2   21    6
8.   Ohio State                  11-1   165.1   68    1
9.   Arizona St                   9-1   160.2   23    7
10.  Missouri                    10-1   159.8    5   38

The only real changes at the top are Ohio State moving up slightly, and Oklahoma falling to #11.

Total Offense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Oregon                       8-2   542.8 [  1]  292.2 [  4]  250.6 [ 39]
2.   Texas Tech                   8-4   526.5 [  2]   56.2 [118]  470.3 [  1]
3.   Tulsa                        8-3   517.7 [  3]  163.5 [ 54]  354.2 [  6]
4.   Oklahoma St                  6-5   516.4 [  4]  256.2 [  7]  260.2 [ 33]
5.   Missouri                    10-1   511.9 [  5]  168.7 [ 47]  343.1 [  8]
6.   Hawaii                      10-0   502.6 [  6]   39.2 [120]  463.3 [  2]
7.   Louisville                   5-6   501.3 [  7]  136.0 [ 81]  365.2 [  3]
8.   Brigham Young                8-2   492.4 [  8]  145.7 [ 71]  346.6 [  7]
9.   Florida                      8-3   484.8 [  9]  202.7 [ 24]  282.1 [ 17]
10.  Nebraska                     5-6   483.2 [ 10]  165.8 [ 51]  317.3 [ 11]

The offense top 10 is fairly similar to last week's as well. It will be interesting to see how much of their offensive output Oregon can maintain, but the Arizona loss didn't hurt their stats much.

111. Syracuse                     2-9   298.5 [111]   79.0 [115]  219.5 [ 66]
112. Utah St                      1-10  298.4 [112]  117.9 [ 94]  180.5 [ 97]
113. Northern Illinois            2-9   292.5 [113]  115.7 [ 96]  176.7 [102]
114. Akron                        4-7   291.3 [114]  104.7 [104]  186.5 [ 92]
115. Iowa                         6-6   288.6 [115]  123.4 [ 91]  165.1 [107]
116. Duke                         1-10  282.5 [116]   71.7 [116]  210.8 [ 76]
117. Temple                       4-7   267.3 [117]   56.1 [119]  211.1 [ 74]
118. Army                         3-8   263.9 [118]   98.3 [110]  165.6 [106]
119. Florida Int'l                0-10  258.0 [119]  121.7 [ 92]  136.2 [119]
120. Notre Dame                   2-9   246.4 [120]  101.3 [106]  145.0 [116]

Here's the bottom 10, once again. Notre Dame is still last despite the Duke win. Iowa slipped to 6-6 and might not be bowl-bound after all. Now the winning team with the worst offense belongs to #106 Wake Forest (7-4).

Passing Offense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Texas Tech                   8-4   526.5 [  2]   56.2 [118]  470.3 [  1]
2.   Hawaii                      10-0   502.6 [  6]   39.2 [120]  463.3 [  2]
3.   Louisville                   5-6   501.3 [  7]  136.0 [ 81]  365.2 [  3]
4.   New Mexico St                4-8   432.2 [ 32]   68.6 [117]  363.6 [  4]
5.   Boston College               9-2   466.5 [ 16]  108.8 [ 99]  357.6 [  5]
6.   Tulsa                        8-3   517.7 [  3]  163.5 [ 54]  354.2 [  6]
7.   Brigham Young                8-2   492.4 [  8]  145.7 [ 71]  346.6 [  7]
8.   Missouri                    10-1   511.9 [  5]  168.7 [ 47]  343.1 [  8]
9.   Arizona                      5-6   432.6 [ 31]  111.8 [ 98]  320.8 [  9]
10.  Washington St                4-7   470.8 [ 12]  152.4 [ 63]  318.4 [ 10]

Week after week, Hawaii and Texas Tech have traded bragging rights in passing offense. Last Saturday Tech took the lead back with their 420-yard performance against Oklahoma's 27th ranked pass defense.

Rushing Offense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Navy                         7-4   436.9 [ 29]  350.9 [  1]   85.9 [120]
2.   West Virginia                9-1   449.3 [ 21]  294.2 [  2]  155.0 [114]
3.   Air Force                    9-3   437.1 [ 28]  292.6 [  3]  144.4 [117]
4.   Oregon                       8-2   542.8 [  1]  292.2 [  4]  250.6 [ 39]
5.   Arkansas                     7-4   449.5 [ 20]  286.4 [  5]  163.0 [108]
6.   Illinois                     9-3   431.3 [ 33]  281.7 [  6]  149.5 [115]
7.   Oklahoma St                  6-5   516.4 [  4]  256.2 [  7]  260.2 [ 33]
8.   Louisiana-Lafayette          3-8   397.9 [ 53]  253.6 [  8]  144.2 [118]
9.   Washington                   4-7   447.8 [ 22]  246.5 [  9]  201.2 [ 81]
10.  LSU                         10-1   470.8 [ 13]  235.1 [ 10]  235.7 [ 51]

Oregon slips from #2 to #4 in rushing yards, and will likely fall further without Dixon adding to Jonathan Stewart's yardage. And wait, I just noticed...Louisiana-Lafayette??? Well, they have two rushers in the top 50, their quarterback and running back. It's a good thing since they're 118th in passing.

Now for defense:

Total Defense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Ohio State                  11-1   215.4 [  1]   47.6 [  2]  167.7 [  2]
2.   Southern Cal                 8-2   235.9 [  2]   73.5 [  3]  162.4 [  1]
3.   LSU                         10-1   262.8 [  3]   75.3 [  4]  187.5 [ 11]
4.   Oregon St                    7-4   265.4 [  4]   45.6 [  1]  219.8 [ 49]
5.   Auburn                       7-4   278.3 [  5]   96.4 [ 13]  181.9 [  7]
6.   West Virginia                9-1   282.1 [  6]  102.1 [ 16]  180.0 [  5]
7.   Arizona St                   9-1   284.1 [  7]   77.2 [  5]  206.9 [ 35]
8.   Brigham Young                8-2   289.2 [  8]   85.2 [  7]  203.9 [ 31]
9.   TCU                          6-5   292.2 [  9]  104.7 [ 20]  187.5 [ 10]
10.  Oklahoma                     9-2   298.6 [ 10]   95.5 [ 12]  203.0 [ 27]

Ohio State is back up to #2 in both measures, and remains #1 overall. Holding Michigan to 15 yards rushing helped keep them on track.

Passing Defense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Southern Cal                 8-2   235.9 [  2]   73.5 [  3]  162.4 [  1]
2.   Ohio State                  11-1   215.4 [  1]   47.6 [  2]  167.7 [  2]
3.   Texas Tech                   8-4   340.5 [ 30]  170.3 [ 76]  170.1 [  3]
4.   Clemson                      8-3   300.5 [ 12]  127.4 [ 36]  173.0 [  4]
5.   West Virginia                9-1   282.1 [  6]  102.1 [ 16]  180.0 [  5]
6.   Notre Dame                   2-9   339.8 [ 29]  159.4 [ 67]  180.3 [  6]
7.   Auburn                       7-4   278.3 [  5]   96.4 [ 13]  181.9 [  7]
8.   UNLV                         2-9   361.7 [ 43]  178.9 [ 81]  182.8 [  8]
9.   Utah                         8-3   305.5 [ 14]  119.7 [ 28]  185.7 [  9]
10.  TCU                          6-5   292.2 [  9]  104.7 [ 20]  187.5 [ 10]

Now USC claims the top passing defense. Texas Tech slips to third.

Rushing Defense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Oregon St                    7-4   265.4 [  4]   45.6 [  1]  219.8 [ 49]
2.   Ohio State                  11-1   215.4 [  1]   47.6 [  2]  167.7 [  2]
3.   Southern Cal                 8-2   235.9 [  2]   73.5 [  3]  162.4 [  1]
4.   LSU                         10-1   262.8 [  3]   75.3 [  4]  187.5 [ 11]
5.   Arizona St                   9-1   284.1 [  7]   77.2 [  5]  206.9 [ 35]
6.   Boston College               9-2   388.0 [ 68]   83.0 [  6]  305.0 [118]
7.   Brigham Young                8-2   289.2 [  8]   85.2 [  7]  203.9 [ 31]
8.   Florida                      8-3   347.8 [ 34]   87.4 [  8]  260.4 [102]
9.   Penn State                   8-4   346.0 [ 32]   89.1 [  9]  256.8 [ 97]
10.  Kansas                      11-0   300.3 [ 11]   89.2 [ 10]  211.0 [ 40]

Ohio State improves quite a bit but can't quite dislodge Oregon State from the top spot.

Week 12 Preview - part I: Thursday/Friday

There are so many great games this weekend that it takes two posts to cover them all. It all starts Thanksgiving Day with a game that is likely the Pac-10 championship game. Rankings are from my top 25, and I've tagged games with notes about what they affect as follows:

[NC] - game affects the national championship
[BCS] - game affects a BCS bowl pairing
[H] - game affects the Heisman trophy race

Thursday, November 22

#20 USC (8-2) at #6 Arizona State (9-1) [BCS] [NC] - When Oregon beat both of these teams it appeared the Pac-10 race was over for Southern Cal. Even if the Ducks lost one of their last three, that would put ASU in the lead, and a USC win over ASU would give it back to Oregon. But with the loss of Dennis Dixon, Oregon will find it very difficult to win both of their next two games. Now, a win over ASU will likely put the Trojans in the Rose Bowl. Of course an ASU win puts them in charge, and possibly still in national championship contention.

I've felt all season that USC would finish with three losses this year. The most logical would be a loss here, then beating UCLA and winning their bowl game. Second most logical would be the loss coming against their bowl opponent. But this has been the most illogical of seasons, so what would be more fitting than a win over ASU, a second straight loss to unpredictable UCLA—at home, no less—then a comeback win in their bowl game? We'll see, but I'm going with Vegas on this one. I think USC might even blow out the Sun Devils—the Trojan defense is getting better and better each week, and if the perfect storm of bad games hits ASU it could be a shutout.

This scenario would set up a classic Rose Bowl matchup between Ohio State and Southern Cal, which would be a battle of two of the best defenses in the country. It could be one of those 17-16 nail-biters that used to happen in the 70s.

Friday, November 23

Arkansas (7-4) at #2 LSU (10-1) [NC] [H] - This is Darren McFadden's last stand in his Heisman campaign. He needs a huge game and an Arkansas win. Absent both of those and he probably falls short. Of course, accomplishing that would also throw the national championship picture into disarray, opening the door for West Virginia, Ohio State, or Arizona State.

#19 Texas (9-2) at Texas A&M (6-5) [BCS] - The Longhorns are hoping for another Oklahoma loss to put them in the Big 12 championship game. Where, I believe, they'd get destroyed by either Kansas or Missouri. But even if they don't get there, beating rival A&M would give them a respectable 10-2 finish, which is much better than things looked early in the year. It also probably sends them to a bowl game above their actual talent level. They've been improving week by week, but it's difficult to tell how much due to lack of top-notch opposition. Either sooner or later, though, Texas is going to face a real challenge.

#15 Boise State (10-1) at #7 Hawaii (10-0) [BCS] [H] - I really think Boise State is a much better team than Hawaii, mainly due to defense. Both offenses are capable of scoring 50 any day, but Hawaii has given up too many points to too-poor competition. The Broncos ought to win this one, considering that the Warriors have nearly lost several games to teams far worse. Hawaii hasn't played a team close to as good as Boise, on offense or on defense. But something tells me Hawaii is going to play above their heads at home, and pull out another cardiac win. If just to confound pollsters trying to find a correct spot for them, and to create a BCS bowl game matchup that will be a solid blowout, and even to cause some confusion in the Heisman race, Hawaii will win. Played on the Smurf Turf this would be 45-10 for the Broncos, but for Boise to win in Honolulu they'll have to appeal to the Gods of Logic, who haven't smiled on this season much. (I just noticed that Hawaii is actually favored in this game, which I can't understand. Maybe no one believes in logic this year...)

Nebraska (5-6) at Colorado (5-6) - This game means nothing to anyone outside of Nebraska and Colorado; basically one team avoids a losing record and probably goes to a bowl game; the other licks its wounds and goes home for the year. So why list it? Call it a gut feeling, but I think this is going to be the most entertaining game of the long weekend. One of those back-and-forth, touchdown every 2 minutes affairs, ending 56-51 or some such score. Nebraska's offense under QB Joe Ganz is suddenly explosive, and their defense has been weak enough to allow Colorado to keep pace. Since it's on Friday there aren't many games conflicting with it, so unless you really need to see Mississippi vs. Mississippi State, this is the early game to watch.

That's it for Thursday and Friday...I'll preview Saturday's action when I can digest some of the results of these games!