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October 25, 2007



No offense, but scanning this post, it sure seems like home field advantage is drastically overstated. ASU, for instance, has a 70%+ chance of beating both Cal and USC, but only a 50% chance with UCLA?


Scott--yeah seems to be one of the quirks of the method I've devised, Home field vs. away seems to swing too much. The way I work HFA into the method might need some work...the method is a bit unorthodox and it's not set in stone. If I can think of logical ways to change it I will. The "tails" on the odds are pretty fat, too -- it's easy to get into odds above 70 or 80%, which is usually considered pretty rare.

It's a work in progress but I like to throw things around and see what sticks.

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