Ok, here we go. I've finished compiling the yardage stats I was talking about earlier. Like I mentioned before, simply statistics exist that track scoring offense and scoring defense, as well as passing/rushing offense and defense. Some people take that a step further and compile points-based power ratings that essential adjust scoring offense and defense for schedule strength. But I've yet to see the same done for passing and rushing yardage. So I had to do it myself...
Here are the results. Again, soon, I'll be making some pages to hold this data, listing all the Division I-A teams, but for now, I'll list the top 10 or so in each category, adding to my overwhelming amount of lists on this site.
First up: Rushing offense
rnk Team rec Yards
1. Navy (2-2) 349.68
2. West Virginia (4-0) 341.62
3. Arkansas (1-2) 323.40
4. Oregon (4-0) 316.75
5. Oklahoma (4-0) 272.53
6. California (4-0) 272.37
7. Texas A&M (3-1) 272.23
8. Alabama (3-1) 260.33
9. Louisiana-Lafayette (0-4) 256.77
10. Indiana (3-1) 256.45
The difference between this list and average-per-game rushing data is that this list is corrected for the strength of their opponents' rushing defense. This is not the same as correcting for strength of schedule; it's only concerned with rushing offense vs. rushing defense, regardless of how good the teams are overall. The result is a number which equals the ground yardage a team would expect to achieve given an average opponent. The average-yards list tells only what a team has achieved against its specific opponents.
Still, the lists have a basic similarity; the top four teams are the same in both lists, and #5 Oklahoma is 7th in raw average yards. But California, at #6, is markedly different from their #23 ranking on the raw average list. The Bears' foes have, in aggregate, a better-than-normal rushing defense; correcting for this reflects how good Cal's ground game really is. Alabama, too, is underrated by raw average (27th), while Illinois (5th vs. 15th) is an example of a team overrated by raw average.
Notre Dame, too, looks worse than they are when you don't correct for their opposition. The NCAA lists them dead last at #119 (or #120 counting Western Kentucky) with just 26 yards/game, while their adjusted stats put them at #113 and over 61 yards vs. an average opponent.
Passing offense:
rnk Team rec Yards
1. Texas Tech (3-1) 491.62
2. Hawaii (4-0) 484.55
3. Tulsa (2-1) 461.88
4. New Mexico St (2-2) 439.85
5. Louisville (2-2) 429.25
6. North Texas (0-3) 400.05
7. Arizona (1-3) 374.61
8. Boston College (4-0) 370.66
9. Nebraska (3-1) 362.11
10. Kansas St (2-1) 359.29
No really big surprise here: Texas Tech and Hawaii are #1 and #2, no matter how you call it. Kansas State rates considerably higher than their corresponding #21 ranking in the raw averages, but other than than, it's not too different.
Total offense (Rushing offense + passing offense, for those of you keeping score at home):
rnk Team rec Yards Rush Pass
1. Tulsa (2-1) 648.68 36 3
2. Oregon (4-0) 607.42 4 22
3. Hawaii (4-0) 604.17 92 2
4. Texas Tech (3-1) 570.30 112 1
5. Clemson (4-0) 559.60 24 12
6. Louisville (2-2) 541.55 95 5
7. New Mexico St (2-2) 532.37 104 4
8. North Texas (0-3) 521.30 90 6
9. Brigham Young (2-2) 520.32 39 11
10. Oklahoma (4-0) 516.67 5 44
This one's kind of interesting. Louisville, #1 in raw average yards per game, is only #6, largely due to the fact that many of those yards came against Syracuse, who is 106th in total defense, as well as Middle Tennessee State, who ranks even lower.
North Texas played Oklahoma, a very strong defensive team, explaining why they rank #8 when adjusted from #34 when not. Kansas, on the other hand, is on 35th when adjusted instead of #4, probably because they've racked up their yards against the likes of FIU, Toledo, and Central Michigan.
Now, the defensive categories. Rushing defense first:
rnk Team rec Yards
1. Boise St (2-1) 15.14
2. LSU (4-0) 23.59
3. Oregon St (2-2) 24.84
4. Oklahoma (4-0) 39.32
5. Florida (4-0) 39.61
6. Miami FL (3-1) 43.16
7. UCLA (3-1) 43.85
8. Cincinnati (4-0) 44.32
9. Ohio State (4-0) 54.08
10. Georgia (3-1) 61.42
Boise State can be expected to give up only 15 rushing yards a game against an average opponent. In raw averages they rank #14, yielding 80 yds/game. The key for them in the adjusted stats was holding Wyoming (170 yds/game) to 35 yards on the ground. Also, they've only played 3 games so their averages are less reliable perhaps. Still, the Broncos are tough against the run.
The rest of the top 5 jibes with the raw list, but Miami, UCLA, Cincinnati, and Georgia all rate much better when they opponents' rushing offense strength is taken into account. Likewise, Kansas State and Wyoming are both overrated on the raw lists in the top ten.
Passing defense:
rnk Team rec Yards
1. North Carolina St (1-3) 97.01
2. South Florida (3-0) 111.59
3. Fresno St (1-2) 112.25
4. Oklahoma (4-0) 118.95
5. Houston (2-1) 120.50
6. South Carolina (3-1) 129.20
7. Mississippi St (3-1) 135.04
8. Florida St (2-1) 138.71
9. Auburn (2-2) 140.23
10. Brigham Young (2-2) 141.12
This is the one category where Notre Dame ranks highly: in the raw stats they're number four. Unfortunately, they only manage #21 when adjusted. Still, it's better than their #111 rushing defense.
Florida State is the opposite side of the coin. Rated a middling #64 by raw average, they rate #9 when adjusted. Unlike the others, it's hard to say immediately why, as they've given up 230 yds/game against teams averaging 230yds/game. This is when you look for a data entry error :) Or, you realize that the algorithm goes deeper than immediate opponents and isn't always obvious or easy to trace. That, and FSU has only 3 games so any one-game fluke can still throw things off.
Speaking of flukes, it's actually a Division I-AA team, Southeast Louisiana, who has the best adjusted passing defense, at only 76 yards per game, playing against 3 Division I-A teams; this might be because teams have such an easy time running on them that the pass isn't necessary :) Which is the major flaw in putting too much stock in defensive yardage stats; like Hayden Fry used to say, you "scratch where it itches" and this shows up in the numbers.
Total defense: (with numeric ranks for rushing/passing defense)
rnk Team rec Yards Rush Pass
1. Oklahoma (4-0) 158.28 4 4
2. Brigham Young (2-2) 203.30 11 10
3. LSU (4-0) 210.29 2 37
4. Florida St (2-1) 211.19 16 8
5. Ohio State (4-0) 218.87 9 22
6. Rutgers (3-0) 226.06 13 17
7. Oregon St (2-2) 229.29 3 51
8. South Florida (3-0) 239.83 47 2
9. Georgia (3-1) 240.90 10 31
10. Southern Cal (3-0) 244.08 19 24
Right away BYU jumps off the page, a lowly #43 in raw average yards yielded, their passing defense ranks much higher based on the pass-happy opponents they've played (Tulsa, Arizona) and their rushing defense benefits also. Florida State, Oregon State, and Southern Cal also do better here, while erstwhile top 10s Kansas and Penn State don't show up in the top 25.
Ranking by total yardage:
rnk Team rec Yards Off Def
1. Oklahoma (4-0) 358.39 10 1
2. Brigham Young (2-2) 317.02 9 2
3. Oregon St (2-2) 258.31 20 7
4. LSU (4-0) 249.76 27 3
5. Oregon (4-0) 234.51 2 64
6. Rutgers (3-0) 233.74 28 6
7. Houston (2-1) 231.00 23 11
8. Arizona St (4-0) 228.70 21 13
9. Southern Cal (3-0) 228.12 25 10
10. Colorado St (0-3) 217.33 12 20
11. Tulsa (2-1) 214.00 1 97
12. Hawaii (4-0) 203.49 3 80
13. Clemson (4-0) 200.81 5 56
14. Florida (4-0) 200.08 15 24
15. California (4-0) 179.80 24 22
16. Colorado (2-2) 176.28 42 16
17. West Virginia (4-0) 172.97 11 46
18. UCLA (3-1) 169.86 18 33
19. Ohio State (4-0) 160.85 63 5
20. Alabama (3-1) 156.54 16 47
21. Arkansas (1-2) 151.68 17 48
22. Kansas (4-0) 148.32 35 26
23. Arizona (1-3) 140.85 34 28
24. Wisconsin (4-0) 133.29 39 31
25. Texas Tech (3-1) 128.10 4 99
Finally, subtracting adjusted defense from adjusted offense yields an overall expected spread in yardage that can be used to rank teams' overall potential. I say "potential" because yardage doesn't always translate into points, and points don't always translate into wins. Oklahoma is certainly translating their yardage advantage into both, while BYU isn't doing so. Regression to the mean tends to occur, so either the Cougars will start winning soon, or their yardage stats will fall more closely along the lines of how they're performing in the win-loss columns. Oregon State faces the same problem, but for them the schedule doesn't exactly get any easier...
While we can intuitively recognize that Arkansas is better than a normal 1-2 team, who knew that Colorado State is performing well offensively and defensively against their opponents, despite having no wins? They have lost 3 games by a total of 10 points, so by that measure they're not far from being undefeated.
#25 Texas Tech is an interesting case by themselves. Their explosive offense, ranked #4 (and almost solely on the basis of passing, as their rushing offense is #107) is weighed down by their #99 defense. This formula will work well against many teams, but rarely the elite, and even the pedestrian can take advantage of a weak defense, as they Tech found out against Oklahoma State last week. And sometimes a dismal D can be defeated by the worst of squads—Louisville (#6 offense, #118(!) defense) found that out against Syracuse (#119 overall).
whew. That's enough data to last until next Saturday.
Alabama - what could have been
Terry Bowden's columns vary in quality, but he occasionally has some special historical insight from his coaching days or those of his dad or brother. His latest column concerns Alabama's 1986 coaching search, and the fact that, if they had wanted him, they could have had Bobby Bowden. Instead they took Bill Curry.
For Alabama fans, this should be regarded as the equivalent of picking Sam Bowie instead of Michael Jordan. It's very likely Bowden would have had the same level of success with the Tide that he did with the Seminoles. There was no program to rebuild. He would have inherited good players immediately. He'd have been in an area he was familiar with, and could have recruited well everywhere Alabama recruits well, plus in the esteemed south Florida area that became his bread and butter at FSU.
Bowden had proven himself a successful coach by then, guiding the Seminoles to an undefeated regular season in 1979 and Orange Bowl berths that year and the next. So it wasn't like they would have been taking a risk with him. Over the next 20 years he had the level of success that Alabama had become used to with Bear Bryant, while the Tide themselves had mixed results.
In terms of national championships, FSU leads only 2 to 1 over Alabama in the last 20 years. But in terms of overall success, there's no comparison. Alabama averaged 4 losses a year to just over 2 for FSU. And out of 20 years, FSU finished higher in the year-end AP poll 16 times. 'Bama only finished higher 3 times, and last year neither team was rated.
Curry didn't pan out at Alabama, leaving after three years due to contract issues and too-high expectations. Interestingly, many Tide fans were unhappy with Curry despite his relative success due to his inability to beat Auburn, going 0-3 against them. Bowden's FSU teams were 3-0 vs. Auburn over the same time period.
Bowden was everything Alabama could have hoped for, and he almost certainly would have made Alabama his final destination as a coach. They just wanted someone else, and the rest is history: 8 different head coaches over the last 21 years.
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