It seems pretty simple—when there are three undefeated teams, two from major conferences, and the top-ranked undefeated team loses, one of the other teams takes its place. That's what happened in the AP poll when #1 Arizona lost to California; Syracuse (21-0) took over at #1, and was a unanimous selection at that.
But based on Arizona's season so far, keeping them #1 isn't so far-fetched. We're not talking about team "Strength" or any concept of quality, either—just plain accomplishments in the season so far. And by that measure, we'd argue that a 1-loss Arizona is still miles ahead of undefeated Syracuse and Wichita State.
The Wildcats are the only team to beat 19-1 San Diego State (on the road), and they've topped Duke on a neutral court and defeated Michigan on the road, too. Those teams are #5, #11, and #10 in the latest AP poll. Add the recent road win over UCLA and their 8-0 Pac-12 start, and the Wildcats were far and away the most accomplished team prior to their loss. There's a reason they only fell to #2 in the AP poll.
Syracuse counters with an overtime win over Duke at home, a win over Villanova at home, and a neutral court win over the Cal team that beat Arizona. And in general, their schedule is littered with decent victims (Minnesota, Baylor, Indiana, etc.) Make no mistake, Syracuse's 22-0 start is phenomenal, and would be #1 worthy almost any year. But Arizona still ranks higher in our Success rankings even after their loss—and the Success rankings absolutely love undefeated teams, to the point where it's a very rare situation when a team with a loss can be #1 ahead of any no-loss teams.
# Team record Rating
1. Arizona 21-1 66.95
2. Syracuse 21-0 51.20
3. Wichita St. 23-0 34.90
4. San Diego St. 19-1 28.10
5. Creighton 18-3 24.51
6. Villanova 19-2 23.09
7. Florida 19-2 19.63
8. Michigan St. 19-3 19.02
9. Kansas 16-5 19.00
10. Cincinnati 21-2 18.14
As you can see, our Success rankings put Arizona and Syracuse far ahead of the rest of the pack, with Wichita State and San Diego State a strong #3 and #4. But Arizona is still in a class of its own, despite the Orange's reasonably tough schedule. Further, Arizona is playing so much better on average than Syracuse (#1 in Strength to #18 in Strength) that our Combined rankings show an even wider gap:
# Team record Rating
1. Arizona 21-1 91.30
2. Syracuse 21-0 69.35
3. Wichita St. 23-0 52.18
4. Creighton 18-3 46.49
5. San Diego St. 19-1 45.20
6. Villanova 19-2 43.16
7. Kansas 16-5 40.12
8. Michigan St. 19-3 39.40
9. Florida 19-2 39.05
10. Michigan 16-5 36.82
If Syracuse manages to win out—something no one has done since UNLV in 1991, prior to the tournament—they'll undoubtedly pass Arizona. And worse for the Wildcats, their past performance might not matter very much now that they've lost starter Brandon Ashley. They'll still be good, but not as dominant as they were for their first 21 games. If they can lose to Cal—a team not exactly playing their best lately—then other teams will have a good chance, especially before they figure out how to play without Ashley.
There's another phenomenon, too, that several Big Ten teams encountered: once you lose your undefeated record, the losses tend to add up. This could hit Arizona while they're vulnerable. Of course, it could start with Syracuse, too. The team least likely to take a hit? Wichita State, of course, as their schedule is by far the easiest of the three.
In the end, it could be Wichita State undefeated, and maybe at #1—or maybe not. With the games Arizona and Syracuse have left, they could be our #1 with one or two losses pretty easily. And even the AP poll might not reward the Shockers with a #1 ranking in that case.
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