SportsRatings: College Basketball

Despite loss, Arizona is still our #1 -- for now

It seems pretty simple—when there are three undefeated teams, two from major conferences, and the top-ranked undefeated team loses, one of the other teams takes its place. That's what happened in the AP poll when #1 Arizona lost to California; Syracuse (21-0) took over at #1, and was a unanimous selection at that.

But based on Arizona's season so far, keeping them #1 isn't so far-fetched. We're not talking about team "Strength" or any concept of quality, either—just plain accomplishments in the season so far. And by that measure, we'd argue that a 1-loss Arizona is still miles ahead of undefeated Syracuse and Wichita State.

The Wildcats are the only team to beat 19-1 San Diego State (on the road), and they've topped Duke on a neutral court and defeated Michigan on the road, too. Those teams are #5, #11, and #10 in the latest AP poll. Add the recent road win over UCLA and their 8-0 Pac-12 start, and the Wildcats were far and away the most accomplished team prior to their loss. There's a reason they only fell to #2 in the AP poll.

Syracuse counters with an overtime win over Duke at home, a win over Villanova at home, and a neutral court win over the Cal team that beat Arizona. And in general, their schedule is littered with decent victims (Minnesota, Baylor, Indiana, etc.) Make no mistake, Syracuse's 22-0 start is phenomenal, and would be #1 worthy almost any year. But Arizona still ranks higher in our Success rankings even after their loss—and the Success rankings absolutely love undefeated teams, to the point where it's a very rare situation when a team with a loss can be #1 ahead of any no-loss teams.

#   Team                     record    Rating
1.  Arizona                   21-1     66.95
2.  Syracuse                  21-0     51.20
3.  Wichita St.               23-0     34.90
4.  San Diego St.             19-1     28.10
5.  Creighton                 18-3     24.51
6.  Villanova                 19-2     23.09
7.  Florida                   19-2     19.63
8.  Michigan St.              19-3     19.02
9.  Kansas                    16-5     19.00
10. Cincinnati                21-2     18.14

As you can see, our Success rankings put Arizona and Syracuse far ahead of the rest of the pack, with Wichita State and San Diego State a strong #3 and #4. But Arizona is still in a class of its own, despite the Orange's reasonably tough schedule. Further, Arizona is playing so much better on average than Syracuse (#1 in Strength to #18 in Strength) that our Combined rankings show an even wider gap:

#   Team                     record    Rating
1.  Arizona                   21-1     91.30
2.  Syracuse                  21-0     69.35
3.  Wichita St.               23-0     52.18
4.  Creighton                 18-3     46.49
5.  San Diego St.             19-1     45.20
6.  Villanova                 19-2     43.16
7.  Kansas                    16-5     40.12
8.  Michigan St.              19-3     39.40
9.  Florida                   19-2     39.05
10. Michigan                  16-5     36.82

If Syracuse manages to win out—something no one has done since UNLV in 1991, prior to the tournament—they'll undoubtedly pass Arizona. And worse for the Wildcats, their past performance might not matter very much now that they've lost starter Brandon Ashley. They'll still be good, but not as dominant as they were for their first 21 games. If they can lose to Cal—a team not exactly playing their best lately—then other teams will have a good chance, especially before they figure out how to play without Ashley.

There's another phenomenon, too, that several Big Ten teams encountered: once you lose your undefeated record, the losses tend to add up. This could hit Arizona while they're vulnerable. Of course, it could start with Syracuse, too. The team least likely to take a hit? Wichita State, of course, as their schedule is by far the easiest of the three.

In the end, it could be Wichita State undefeated, and maybe at #1—or maybe not. With the games Arizona and Syracuse have left, they could be our #1 with one or two losses pretty easily. And even the AP poll might not reward the Shockers with a #1 ranking in that case.

 

Miami wipes out Duke; La Salle, Villanova, Wake Forest, Northwestern add to upset fever

Duke's rebound to the #1 spot in the national polls hit a speedbump in Miami as the Hurricanes demolished the Blue Devils, 90-63 on Wednesday night.

The loss knocked Duke from #3 to #5 in the Strength power rating, an unusually large drop for a one-game result this late in the season. Miami (14-3) is up to #18, and #9 in Success, for a Combined ranking of #10. The Hurricanes are alone at the top of the ACC with a 5-0 record.

The loss opens the door for Michigan to take over the #1 spot in the polls. The Wolverines are #1 in our Combined power rating (#4 in our Strength rating and #1 in Success) and it would be their first appearance at #1 since 1992—early in Fab Five season #2 in 1992-1993. They have to get past Purdue tonight and Illinois on Sunday to make that happen.

Kansas is still #1 in our Zeitgeist rankings, where things move much more quickly based on recent games. And there we see the effects of the upsets of the last few days, where Butler, North Carolina State, and Louisville joined Duke as upset victims.

La Salle (13-5) jumped from #90 to #39 after beating Butler (now 15-3) 54-53 last night, while 8-10 Drake flew from #171 to #85 after upsetting former #16 Creighton 74-69. Northwestern got into the act by beating #22 Minnesota 55-48 and moved up 51 spots to #71; the Wildcats are 12-8.

These teams joined Tuesday night's surprises: Wake Forest (10-8) edged former #10 North Carolina State 86-84 and Villanova rocked #9 Louisville 73-64. The Deacons zoomed from #118 to #61, while the Wildcats passed them, moving from #119 to #60.

Revenge is Sweet: Duke, Murray State pay back FSU, Tennessee State with road wins

About a month ago, Florida State beat Duke on the Blue Devils' home court, 76-73. On February 9th, Tennessee State traveled to Murray State and handed the Racers their first loss of the season, 72-68.

Fast forward to last night. Duke avenged their home loss win a 74-66 win in Tallahassee, clarifying the ACC regular-season title race a bit by breaking the 3-way tie that had existed between the Blue Devils, Tar Heels, and Seminoles. Murray State invaded Tennessee State's home court and this time it was no contest; the Racers won easily, 80-62, after taking a 45-28 halftime lead. You think they were mad at the Tigers for spoiling their perfect record?

The Blue Devils move up to #7 in our Zeitgeist rankings from #9, while Murray State moves back into the top ten and Florida State falls out. 

The top ten consists of most of the usual suspects, with Syracuse, Kentucky, Michigan State, Missouri, and Kansas all in the top six. Notably absent are North Carolina (#11) and Ohio State, who ranks #13 after losing two of their last four. Instead, mid-majors Wichita State and Temple ride lengthy winning streaks into the top ten.

prev Rnk Team                   Rec   Rating  Last game (each . = 1 day ago)
  1   1. Syracuse               28-1   85.21  .W 56-48 #47 South Florida      
  2   2. Kentucky               27-1   74.22  ..W 73-64 @#78 Mississippi St.  
  3   3. Michigan St.           23-5   62.37  .W 66-61 @#103 Minnesota        
  4   4. Missouri               25-3   52.02  ..L 78-68 #59 Kansas St.        
  5   5. Notre Dame             20-8   50.72  .W 71-44 #75 West Virginia      
  6   6. Kansas                 23-5   50.60  .W 66-58 @#205 Texas A&M        
  9   7. Duke                   24-4   48.40  W 74-66 @#10 Florida St.        
  7   8. Wichita St.            25-4   47.58  .W 68-55 @#128 Illinois St.     
  8   9. Temple                 22-5   45.73  .W 80-79OT @#85 La Salle        
 14  10. Murray St.             27-1   41.47  W 80-62 @#59 Tennessee St.     

Of the two teams that made a major mid-season surge, Notre Dame has followed through better than the Seminoles, not losing since they beat Syracuse to start their great run. Florida State has now lost twice since their huge win over North Carolina and ranks #21, while the Irish eventually moved into the top five as their recent performance is heavily weighed.

Another, less pronounced payback: Gonzaga defeated BYU last night 74-63, avenging a road loss to the Cougars from early February. Of course, this type of thing (winning at home, losing on the road) is typical in conference play between teams of a certain parity—and isn't too uncommon among teams of disparate strength.

Badgers Upset by Iowa again

Another team that lost at home previously in conference play and had a chance for payback couldn't quite close the gap at the end. Iowa had defeated Wisconsin in Madison 72-65, way back on January 31st. For the rematch in Iowa City, the 15-13 Hawkeyes took it to the Badgers again, maintaining a 10-point lead for most of the game. Wisconsin got close late, and a last-second Badger three pointer made the final score Iowa 67, Wisconsin 66. Both teams shot the lights out early but it was Iowa's Matt Gatens who continued to do so in the 2nd half, and his two free throws at the end iced the game. He finished with 33 points after bashing Indiana for 31 on Sunday.

The two wins gave Iowa a monstrous boost in our Zeitgeist rankings, soaring the Hawks from #120 to #71 to #47 today, nearly putting them even with Wisconsin who has lost three of their last five. Here's a look at the jumps in the rankings since last Friday:

F17 F23  Team                    Rec   Rating  Last game (each . = 1 day ago)
 30  42. Wisconsin              20-8   22.62  L 67-66 @#120 Iowa              
 27  43. Georgetown             20-6   22.56  ..L 73-55 @#63 Seton Hall       
 29  44. Memphis                20-8   22.31  .W 70-47 #210 East Carolina     
 28  45. Nevada                 22-5   21.98  .....L 90-84 @#59 Iona          
 33  46. George Mason           23-7   21.92  .L 85-82OT @#217 Northeastern   
120  47. Iowa                   15-13  21.30  W 67-66 #30 Wisconsin           
130  48. Texas El Paso          14-13  20.78  .W 76-68OT #12 Southern Mississip

The Hawkeyes are the highest-rated 11-, 12-, or 13-loss team, but not by much: Texas El Paso's huge upsets of both #29 Memphis and #12 Southern Miss gave them even more points and put them right behind Iowa. Of course to maintain their top 50 rankings, both teams will have to stay hot. The Zeitgeist tries to capture how teams are doing right now, so rankings change rapidly with each win and loss.

While beating top opponents allows teams to make big jumps, beating lowly teams doesn't help much, as a number of schools found out yesterday. Marquette, for example, only gained one place for beating #188 Rutgers 82-65. California's win over 5-22 Utah didn't even help the Golden Bears hold their place, as they drop from #24 to #25. Wagner held at #27 after beating #342 Bryant (2-27), Middle Tennessee State gained one place for beating #340 ULM (2-26), and South Dakota State earned four spots for a win over #200 Western Illinois. Contrast this with Cincinnati, who moved up 20 spots to #31 after edging #33 Louisville.

prev Rnk Team                   Rec   Rating  Last game (each . = 1 day ago)
 24  25. California             23-6   29.13  W 60-46 @#323 Utah              
 25  26. Harvard                23-3   28.96  .....W 66-51 #100 Yale          
 27  27. Wagner                 24-4   27.99  W 86-73 @#342 Bryant            
 28  28. Nevada Las Vegas       23-6   27.40  .W 75-58 #123 Boise St.         
 30  29. Middle Tennessee       25-4   25.31  W 94-61 @#340 Louisiana Monroe  
 31  30. Washington             19-8   25.26  .....W 79-70 #37 Arizona        
 51  31. Cincinnati             20-8   24.88  W 60-56 #33 Louisville          
 36  32. South Dakota St.       23-7   24.82  W 74-57 #200 Western Illinois   

And of course, the lower you are in the rankings the easier it is to move up a whole lot of places. When you beat a relatively good team, it gets even easier. Binghamton ranked dead last at #345 and were 0-26 before upsetting Vermont, which gave them probably the biggest 1-day jump in our rankings this season (nearly 100 places). They fall back 18 spots from #247 to #265 after losing to Albany, but they still rank ahead of nearly two dozen teams with double-digit wins.

Vermont was #99 before Binghamton beat them, and that's what propelled the Bearcats so high. The Zeitgeist rankings have no real "memory" of past games, just a rating score that gets modified as new information comes in. It pays to beat good teams, though—even if you have to wait all season.

 

Wildcat Report: Kentucky blasts Florida, 78-58, gains in all power ratings

The Kentucky Wildcats went wild on Florida, beating the Gators 78-58 at Rupp Arena Tuesday night. The win affected a number of our rankings of the Wildcats:

• Kentucky moved within about a point of Ohio State in our Strength power rating
• They also sit at #2 in Success behind Syracuse
• The Wildcats regained the #1 spot in our Combined power rating
• In RealWins they became a strict "lock" for the NCAA tournament, only the 2nd team to do so
• They are a very close #2 behind Syracuse in our Zeitgeist rankings

Let's take a look at each. Strength:

#   Team                     record    Rating
1.  Ohio St.                  21-3     25.56
2.  Kentucky                  24-1     24.51
3.  Kansas                    18-5     21.94
4.  Syracuse                  23-1     21.88
5.  North Carolina            20-3     21.62

As with Pomeroy and Sagarin and other margin-of-victory based rankings, Ohio State is #1 and has been for some time. They've been ahead by nearly 3 points for much of the last month, but Kentucky is closing in and is almost within a point, well ahead of the rest of the field. The Buckeyes beat Purdue, 87-74, at home last night, which hurt the Buckeyes' a bit (they should have won by 16+ to maintain their rating).

Success:

#   Team                     record    Rating
1.  Missouri                  22-2     37.85
2.  Kentucky                  24-1     34.21
3.  Syracuse                  23-1     30.43
4.  Baylor                    21-2     26.06
5.  Murray St.                23-0     25.75

Kentucky is a moderately close #2 to Syracuse in Success, which doesn't consider margin of victory. Road wins are a premium, so while beating Florida gets them points, a home win is less valuable. Undefeated Murray State slips to #5 today, even though neither they nor Baylor played; the mix of their opponents' results adjusted the ratings. The Racers may have a tough time finishing in the top three even if they win out.

Combined:

#   Team                     record    Rating
1.  Kentucky                  24-1     58.72
2.  Missouri                  22-2     57.91
3.  Syracuse                  23-1     52.31
4.  Ohio St.                  21-3     50.40
5.  Baylor                    21-2     43.57

The Wildcats regain the top spot from Missouri in this rating, which combines the Strength and Success scores to give a balance between the two. Kentucky is #2 in each component. Missouri is #8 and #1; Syracuse is #4 and #3; Ohio State is #1 and #6; and Baylor is #12 and #4.

RealWins:

 rnk Team                    record    Wins     Lock%
  1. Syracuse                 23-1     37.80   100.00
  2. Kentucky                 24-1     36.83   100.00
  3. Ohio St.                 21-3     32.70    87.21
  4. Duke                     19-4     32.30    82.55
  5. Missouri                 22-2     32.10    85.60
  6. Creighton                21-4     30.38    84.40
  7. Marquette                20-5     30.29    84.16

Kentucky is #2 in RealWins, which redistributes win values by schedule strength. Thus a team with 23 wins might have 37.8 RealWins like Syracuse, or as in the case of Murray State, only 19.91.

All seven of these teams have reached 30.0 RealWins, which means a certain berth in the NCAA tournament. But losing out could put them on the bubble and back to uncertainty. Creighton, for example, has accomplished enough for an NCAA berth, but if they lost every remaining game—like they did to Evansville, 65-57, last night, and to UNI the game before—they'd end up 21-10. Still probably good enough for a berth, but with an 8-game losing streak, no guarantee.

Kentucky joins the slim ranks of the teams guaranteed to make the tournament no matter what happens. At 24-1, they can be at worst 24-8—not a #1 seed, for sure, but still above the bubble.

Zeitgeist rankings:

prev Rnk Team                    Record  Rating Last game (each . = 1 day ago)
  1   1. Syracuse                 23-1   64.72  ...W 95-70 #110 St. John's    
  2   2. Kentucky                 24-1   64.56  W 78-58 #6 Florida            
  3   3. Missouri                 22-2   54.15  .W 71-68 #121 Oklahoma        
  4   4. Ohio St.                 21-3   52.78  W 87-84 #95 Purdue            
  5   5. Baylor                   21-2   46.24  ...W 64-60 #96 Oklahoma St.   
  7   6. Notre Dame               15-8   40.35  ...W 76-59 #17 Marquette      

This rating doesn't re-evaluate teams in hindsight; what you earn when you beat them stays with you. Points increase throughout the season, making recent games more important, and a team can make huge gains with a few big wins—note Notre Dame, just 15-8 and crashing the top ten due to wins over Syracuse and Marquette. Kentucky is #2 here, too, and almost takes the #1 spot away from Syracuse.

Michigan State drops 2nd straight; Kentucky up to #2 in Zeitgeist Rankings

Three days removed from being upset by Northwestern, Michigan State lost to Michigan 70-69 on Tuesday night.

It's the Spartans second two-game losing streak this season; the first occurred in the opening two games, after which they went on a 15-game tear that put them at #6 in the AP poll.

They're an interesting case for examining how our Zeitgeist rankings work. This ranking tries to capture a team's recent performance while still retaining a "memory" of their past level of play.

Michigan State's first two losses were all but forgotten by the Zeitgeist rankings as their 15-game winning streak put them at #3, right behind two undefeated teams.

Zeitgeist rankings through January 10, 2012
prev  #  Team                      rec   Rating  Last game (each . = 1 day ago)
  1   1. Syracuse                 17-0   59.19  ...W 73-66 #52 Marquette      
  2   2. Baylor                   16-0   55.33  W 75-73 #14 Kansas St.        
  3   3. Michigan St.             15-2   49.45  W 95-61 #68 Iowa              
  4   4. Indiana                  15-1   42.59  ..W 88-82 #111 Penn St.       
  6   5. Seton Hall               15-2   39.80  W 94-73 #110 DePaul

They also had a large lead over #4 Indiana and #5 Seton Hall. Both those teams lost by the 13th, so when Michigan State lost on the 14th to Northwestern, they only fell one spot:

Zeitgeist rankings through January 14, 2012
prev  #  Team                      rec   Rating  Last game (each . = 1 day ago)
  1   1. Syracuse                 19-0   62.94  W 78-55 #115 Providence       
  2   2. Baylor                   17-0   57.31  W 106-65 #123 Oklahoma St.    
  4   3. Kentucky                 17-1   42.09  W 65-62 #145 Tennessee        
  6   4. Missouri                 16-1   41.07  W 84-73 #62 Texas             
  3   5. Michigan St.             15-3   39.56  L 81-74 #113 Northwestern     

But since there was no longer a big gap separating them from the teams below them, last night's loss to Michigan dropped the Spartans to #15:

Zeitgeist Jan 17
prev  #  Team                      rec   Rating  Last game (each . = 1 day ago)
 11  10. San Diego St.            15-2   33.71  ...W 69-67 #10 Nevada Las Vegas
 12  11. Duke                     15-2   33.16  ..W 73-66 #141 Clemson       
 13  12. Ohio St.                 16-3   32.93  ..W 80-63 #10 Indiana        
 14  13. Oral Roberts             16-4   32.70  ...W 81-71 #203 IUPUI        
 15  14. Seton Hall               15-3   31.84  ....L 56-55 #140 South Florida
  7  15. Michigan St.             15-4   31.65  L 60-59 #43 Michigan          
 16  16. Connecticut              14-3   31.24  ...W 67-53 #60 Notre Dame     
 17  17. St. Mary's               17-2   30.63  ...W 69-61 #253 Portland      
 43  18. Michigan                 15-4   29.74  W 60-59 #7 Michigan St.      

The team that beat them, Michigan, jumped from #43 all the way to #18, regaining all the ground they lost when they were upset by Iowa. Both Michigan State and Michigan are 15-4.

The ratings are more volatile on the upside, in general. Falling from #3 to #12 for two losses is roughly what is expected in the polls. MSU dropped from #6 to #9 due to the Northwestern loss, and might fall another several spots in next week's poll.

By contrast, our Success Power Rating is less volatile, as the entire season is considered equally; early games are weighted just as much as later games. Michigan State was #6 on January 10th in the Success Ratings, fell to #9, and then to #13, for a total of 7 spots.

Our RealWins rating don't count losses at all, so there is even less change due to losing. Essentially, losing just deprives a team of scoring points for new wins. The Spartans were #4 in RealWins on the 10th, fell to 7th, and to 9th today, for a total of 5 spots. This was almost solely from teams that won games pushing past them, though Indiana edged past them by 0.05 points from algorithmic "noise."

Our most stable rankings are the Strength ratings, of course. These don't consider winning or losing, just margin of victory. Michigan State was #5 on the 10th; fell to #8 on the 14th; and actually moved back up to #7 today for a total drop of just 2 spots. It's not whether you win or lose that counts in the Strength Power Rating, it's how you win or lose, and a 1-point road loss to Michigan didn't hurt them very much. Other teams around them performed a bit worse.

Kentucky up to #2 in Zeitgeist Rankings

#5 Kentucky beat #42 Arkansas 86-63 Tuesday night and jumped up to #2 in the Zeitgeist rankings, moving past a Big Twelve glut of Missouri, Kansas, and Baylor.

prev  #  Team                      rec   Rating  Last game (each . = 1 day ago)
  1   1. Syracuse                 20-0   64.42  .W 71-63 #156 Pittsburgh      
  5   2. Kentucky                 18-1   46.53  W 86-63 #42 Arkansas          
  2   3. Baylor                   17-1   45.85  .L 92-74 #9 Kansas            
  3   4. Kansas                   15-3   45.75  .W 92-74 #2 Baylor            
  4   5. Missouri                 17-1   42.49  .W 70-51 #163 Texas A&M       

Kansas (15-3) had just made the top five after beating Baylor on Monday. Missouri's lone loss is to Kansas State on the 7th; Kentucky last lost to Indiana back on December 10th, but hasn't accumulated a lot of points due to a weaker schedule.

The Indiana loss dropped Kentucky from #7 to #25; wins over Chattanooga and Samford didn't help much, but beating Loyola MD (then #76 at 8-2) bumped the Wildcats to #18. Beating 8-4 Lamar actually moved the 'Cats into the top 10 at #9, and the Louisville win put them at #7.

Wins over Arkansas-Little Rock, South Carolina, and Auburn had them hitting #5, before the Tennessee win put them at #3. Kansas and Missouri pushed past them again before yesterday's win let them grab the #2 spot. But their lead over Baylor and Kansas is tiny, and with Missouri playing Baylor, one of those teams will jump to #2 on Saturday.

For today, however, Kentucky is the 2nd "hottest" team in college basketball.

Comparisons of Top Ten Teams: Kansas-Texas, BYU-SDSU, Pitt-Notre Dame

In most of the major conferences, it's pretty clear who the top-rated team should be:

• In the ACC, Duke is 26-2 overall and has defeated 19-6 North Carolina
• Ohio State leads the Big Ten by two games and is 25-1
• Arizona is on a tear in the Pac-10 and is 22-4 overall
• In the SEC, Florida is 9-2 and 20-5 overall

There's room for debate, however, in the Big East, Big Twelve, and at the top of mid-major Mountain West. Should Kansas or Texas be ranked higher? Could Notre Dame be as deserving of a 1-seed as Pitt? And who gets the nod between BYU and San Diego State? All six teams are consensus top tenWe'll look at today's power rating updates and see who gets the nod.

Record - conference and overall

In the Big Twelve, Kansas holds the edge in overall record, 24-2 to 23-3, but the Longhorns are 11-0 in conference to the Jayhawks 9-2. The Mountain West edge goes to San Diego State, at 26-1 and 11-1 to BYU's 24-2 and 10-1. And the Big East is all Pittsburgh; the Panthers are 24-2 to Notre Dame's 21-4 and lead the Irish by two conference games.

Strength Power Rating

#   Team                     record    Rating
1.  Duke                      24-2     25.11
2.  Ohio St.                  25-1     24.68
3.  Kansas                    24-2     24.49
4.  Texas                     23-3     21.86
5.  Washington                18-7     21.81
6.  Brigham Young             24-2     21.69
7.  Pittsburgh                24-2     21.43

Kansas and Texas are neck-and-neck at #3 and #4 in today's Strength Power Rating update, but the Jayhawks are almost three points ahead despite the closeness in ranking. Brigham Young is #6 while San Diego State is just #11, and the biggest difference is between #7 Pittsburgh and #21 Notre Dame. So far Pittsburgh is ahead of Notre Dame no matter how you look at it. But...

Head-to-head—and Success Power Rating

When we look at how these teams have performed head-to-head, things change. And the Success Power Rating reflects this pecking order pretty well.

Texas beat Kansas in Lawrence, 74-63, giving the Longhorns a good argument that they're the better team. At home, BYU handled San Diego State 71-58. And Notre Dame, playing at Pitt, beat the Panthers 56-51.

#   Team                       rec     Rating
1.  Ohio St.                  25-1     45.02
2.  Notre Dame                21-4     40.64
3.  Pittsburgh                24-2     39.32
4.  San Diego St.             26-1     30.41
5.  Brigham Young             24-2     28.68
6.  Texas                     23-3     26.63
7.  Duke                      24-2     25.15
8.  Kansas                    24-2     23.06

Though the Success Power Rating doesn't algorithm doesn't specifically weigh head-to-head encounters, but they naturally take on importance. Score margin isn't considered but game location is, and the road wins give Texas and Notre Dame a boost: Texas is #6 to Kansas' #8, while Notre Dame is #2 and Pittsburgh #3. #4 San Diego State is still one spot ahead of #5 BYU, with the Cougars gaining a bit less (and SDSU suffering a bit less) for beating the Aztecs at home.

Overall Power Rating: Adding It All Up

Considering all the factors—record, conference record, schedule strength, head-to-head, game location—can be confusing, but the Overall Power Rating—the Strength and Success ratings combined—orders the teams like this:

#   Team                     record    Rating
1.  Ohio St.                  25-1     69.70
2.  Pittsburgh                24-2     60.76
3.  Notre Dame                21-4     57.42
4.  Brigham Young             24-2     50.37
5.  Duke                      24-2     50.27
6.  San Diego St.             26-1     49.02
7.  Texas                     23-3     48.49
8.  Kansas                    24-2     47.55

All three pairs of teams are very close, but Texas, Pitt, and BYU are ranked higher than their counterparts, and I think logic backs this up.

• Texas gets the edge for their undefeated Big Twelve record, and head-to-head win at Kansas
• Pittsburgh, despite their loss at home to Notre Dame, is in control of the Big East, and overall has played better basketball
• Though things could change after they play in San Diego, Brigham Young deserves the nod over San Diego State for now, mainly due to their head-to-head win.

Currently in the AP top 25, Kansas is ahead of Texas (though the Jayhawks 2nd loss occurred after that ranking), San Diego State is ahead of BYU, and Pitt is well ahead of Notre Dame. SportsRatings' latest top 25 has the teams in the same order:

SportsRatings Top 25 - Week 14 (2-14-2011)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Top 25 wins; losses
1	1	Ohio St	24-1	L@Wisc-4; wPurdue+23, @FLA+18
3	2	Pittsburgh	23-2	L Tenn-7, ND-5; wSyr+8, UConn+15, =Texas+2, @Gtown+15, @Vill+3, @WVa+5
2	3	San Diego St	25-1	L@BYU-13; wStMary+14
4	4	Brigham Young	24-2	L@UCLA -7, @NMex-9; wSDSU+13, StMary+1, Ariz+22
5	5	Kansas	24-1	L Texas-11; wAriz+8
6	6	Texas	22-3	L@USC-17, =Pitt-2, UConn-ot; w@Kansas+11
7	7	Notre Dame	21-4	L@Marq-22, @St.John-18, @UK-14, @Syr-12;  w@Pitt+5, UConn+3, =Wisc+7, Gtown+14, Lou+ot, St.John+15

BYU-San Diego State is the toughest call; the Cougars have more top 25 wins including the head-to-head, but they've lost twice to non-top 25 teams. We'll have to wait until February 26—and maybe the Mountain West tournament—to sort that one out.

RealWins - because you can't have too many ranking systems

RealWins tells you how many wins a team really has; that is, its wins are weighted for significance and the total gives a better idea of how much a team has accomplished this season.

It also has the effect of telling you when a team is a lock for the NCAA tournament. No team with 30 wins is going to miss the tournament; thus, when a team has a score of 30 in "RealWins" then they are tournament bound, even if they lose the rest of their games.

Using this idea, we can tell you how close your team is to being a lock for the tournament, or how far. Note that this is not the percentage chance of making the tournament, but the chance of being a lock. If a team has an 80% rating come mid-March, it's very likely that they miss the tournament. 90%? They're a bubble team. 70% or lower? Basically no hope.

At mid-season, 70% is a great ranking. The season's only half way done, and the team is already 70% of the way to being an NCAA lock. That's pretty good.

A team's RealWins increase throughout the season as they win more games. It also increases as their previous victims win more games. That's because RealWins goes deeper than a team's own wins. It looks at a team's opponents' wins, and by cycling through again, captures an opponents' opponents' wins. In this way it's similar to the RPI, but with a few key differences:

1. Unlike the RPI, it does matter who you beat, not just who you played
2. The RPI is an average of winning percentages and fluctuates up and down; RealWins is an aggregate measure and never goes down
3. RealWins looks only at wins; it doesn't care about losses at all.

The last point is interesting. It's necessary in order to make RealWins a measure of progress. After a team makes it to a 60% lock chance, they might remain there but never go backwards. It's interesting that it makes for such a good tournament field predictor without even considering losses.

Another thing it doesn't consider is home or road court. Every win is the same, home or away. This is very contrary to what the selection committee claims is important. But when tested, if we include that information, the predictive value plummets.

Imagine if the NCAA tournament selection committee were to announce that they don't take into account a team's losses, or where games took place!

Losses only hurt a team in one way: they miss out on the points they could have gotten for a win. And including a bonus for road wins—and less credit for home wins—just lets a few more non-Major conference teams in, teams that didn't really make it. It's non-Major conference teams that are playing on the road more often, and they'd benefit the most from road games being worth more.

Adding losses does improve the accuracy a tiny bit, but that wouldn't allow for the ranking to be a season-long progression forward. Maybe we'll add losses to a separate ranking, called "Real Record." Because you can't have too many ranking systems.

Pitt takes over #1 in power rating...for now

The Pitt Panthers took over the #1 spot on the SportsRatings Basketball Power Rating after beating previous #2 UConn 76-68 on the road. Pitt leads #2 North Carolina by less than a point.

Here are the top ten in the Combined power rating:

#   Team                       rec     Rating
1.  Pittsburgh                24-2     72.16
2.  North Carolina            23-2     71.30
3.  Oklahoma                  25-1     56.15
4.  Connecticut               24-2     54.37
5.  Wake Forest               19-4     47.96
6.  Duke                      20-5     45.05
7.  Michigan St.              20-4     39.91
8.  Clemson                   20-4     39.62
9.  Memphis                   22-3     35.86
10. Louisville                19-5     35.68

The win boosts Pittsburgh's chances of getting a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament. They're a half-game out of the Big East lead but have the tiebreaker with the Huskies. The two teams face each other in the final game of the regular season; that and the outcome of the Big East tournament will likely give one or the other team a #1 seed. 

North Carolina is nearly tied with the Panthers, then it's a long drop to #3 Oklahoma. The Sooners are just ahead of the Huskies, then three of the next four are from the ACC: #5 Wake Forest, #6 Duke, and #8 Clemson. Louisville puts a third Big East team in the top ten.

The top ten in the Strength component:

#   Team                       rec     Rating
1.  North Carolina            23-2     26.92
2.  Pittsburgh                24-2     23.08
3.  Duke                      20-5     22.40
4.  Connecticut               24-2     22.14
5.  Memphis                   22-3     22.04
6.  Missouri                  22-4     20.98
7.  West Virginia             17-8     20.25
8.  UCLA                      19-6     20.01
9.  Gonzaga                   19-5     19.73
10. Kansas                    20-5     18.72

North Carolina continues to be the best team in the country, however, by some margin, though Pitt is moving up lately. UConn falls below Duke after the home loss to the Panthers, and Memphis is coming on strong at #5. The second five is made up largely of underachievers, teams that are playing great basketball but not dominating in the Win-Loss column (though Missouri and Kansas are fairly consistent lately).

The top ten in the Success component:

#   Team                       rec     Rating
1.  Pittsburgh                24-2     49.08
2.  North Carolina            23-2     44.37
3.  Oklahoma                  25-1     37.56
4.  Connecticut               24-2     32.22
5.  Wake Forest               19-4     29.72
6.  Duke                      20-5     22.65
7.  Clemson                   20-4     22.24
8.  Michigan St.              20-4     21.88
9.  Illinois                  21-5     18.47
10. Xavier                    21-4     18.17

It's here where Pittsburgh gains their advantage over the Tar Heels. UNC plays Duke again but it's hard to tell if they can regain the lead in the Success ratings if both teams manage to win out. North Carolina can probably get close enough that their edge in Strength gives them the Combined lead.

Oklahoma's schedule has been so light (relatively) that they're #3 despite having only one loss. It's not that the Big 12 is bad, it's just that Oklahoma hasn't played many of the better teams yet. They have Texas, Missouri, and Kansas coming up, which gives them an opportunity to prove they deserve a high ranking despite being only 11th—below both Kansas and Missouri—in the Strength ratings.

Is it just me or is Duke imploding yet again? Many times over the several years, Duke has looked unstoppable at mid-season, only to hit a rough patch late in the year and bow out of the NCAA tournament earlier than expected. Last year they were 22-1 before finishing 5-4 and losing in the 2nd round. This year? An 18-1 start, and now 2-4 and counting. They have a chance to recover this time around, but also a chance to repeat 2007's debacle.

After the rest of the ACC teams, Michigan State and Illinois represent the Big 10. The Spartans are playing much better basketball than the Illini, but their propensity to lose to middle-of-the-pack conference foes holds them back. Still, they're in the top 15 in both components. Xavier rounds out the top ten.

Three's a charm: Power ratings for week 3 shaping up

After the third week, both power ratings are 100% better than they were in the early weeks, and the combined ratings have North Carolina on top and New Jersey Institute of Technology fifth from the bottom, so things are really shaping up. Here are this week's Combined power ratings through games of last Sunday (30th):

#   Team                       rec     Rating  (AP)
1.  North Carolina             7-0     43.76    1
2.  Gonzaga                    5-0     42.98    5
3.  Connecticut                6-0     32.86    2
4.  Duke                       7-0     32.30    4
5.  Pittsburgh                 7-0     31.18    3
6.  Clemson                    7-0     31.09   --
7.  Utah                       4-1     29.53   --
8.  Oklahoma                   6-0     29.18    6
9.  Tennessee                  5-1     27.88   10
10. Utah St.                   4-0     27.87   --
11. Villanova                  6-0     27.28   17
12. Wake Forest                6-0     25.97   15
13. Purdue                     5-1     24.99    9
14. Syracuse                   6-0     24.87   16
15. Xavier                     6-0     24.52   14
16. West Virginia              4-1     24.42   --
17. George Mason               5-1     24.24   --
18. Georgia Tech               4-0     23.70   --
19. Illinois                   6-0     23.67   --
20. Davidson                   5-1     23.45   22
21. Georgetown                 4-1     23.19   20
22. Dayton                     6-0     22.98   --
23. Texas                      5-1     22.60    8
24. Michigan St.               4-1     22.40    7
25. Notre Dame                 5-1     22.26   13

Now that looks like a top 25. In fact, it's remarkably close already to the AP top 25, particularly the top five. Still a few surprises, perhaps, but those might be insights as well: Utah and Utah State in the top ten might be an indication that these teams are pretty good...or it might just point to Southwest Baptist—the team that beat Utah—being the best team in Division II...more about that later. But Clemson, Illinois, and Dayton may be underrated by the AP (they're all in "others receiving votes"), while West Virginia, George Mason, and Georgia Tech are being overlooked (no votes at all).

Speaking of Division II, the listings are down to 340 teams, actually fewer teams than there are in Division I. Some big names are missing (for example, Louisville) because they haven't played enough games to be rated this week. The number should settle in at around 344 or so eventually, up from last year's 341. A number of teams joined Division I provisionally this year but not all play a full Division I schedule.

The Strength ratings are what mainly drives the Combined rankings early on:

#   Team                       rec     Rating
1.  Gonzaga                    5-0     33.38
2.  North Carolina             7-0     32.15
3.  Utah                       4-1     26.01
4.  Connecticut                6-0     25.10
5.  Utah St.                   4-0     24.96
6.  Tennessee                  5-1     24.26
7.  Duke                       7-0     22.82
8.  Pittsburgh                 7-0     22.71
9.  Purdue                     5-1     22.15
10. Davidson                   5-1     21.25

The Bulldogs are slightly ahead of the Tar Heels at this early juncture. Most of the other names are the usual suspects, with Davidson scoring ahead of Oklahoma due to home court advantage over the latter in the Sooners' win.

Again, the Utah teams come up; this is where they are getting their high combined rating, as neither rates in the top 40 in Success. This means they've beaten poor teams, but decisively. Utah's loss to a Division II team hurts them much more in the Success ratings; in Strength, since Southwest Baptist hasn't played any other Division I teams, there is no way for them to be rated other than relative to Utah...so essentially the game counts for very little. This way, blowing out a Division II team doesn't help, but the converse is true in that losing doesn't hurt. As long as Southwest Baptist doesn't play another Division I team—and I believe they do not all year—Utah pretty much gets a pass on it, at least in the Strength ratings. How they do in the rest of their games will determine their rating. As for Southwest Baptist, Utah's play so far suggests that they are the cream of the Division II crop.

This week's Success ratings:

#   Team                       rec     Rating
1.  Florida St.                7-0     12.01
2.  North Carolina             7-0     11.61
3.  Clemson                    7-0     11.22
4.  Syracuse                   6-0     10.53
5.  Villanova                  6-0     10.47
6.  Oklahoma                   6-0     10.29
7.  Illinois                   6-0      9.70
8.  Gonzaga                    5-0      9.60
9.  Xavier                     6-0      9.52
10. Duke                       7-0      9.47

The Seminoles rank first when margin of victory is not an issue. And for them that's a good thing, since four of their wins came by four points or fewer. They're only 93rd in Strength, suggesting a hard fall may be coming. But for now, according to this rating, their seven games have been against tougher foes than anyone else's, including North Carolina and Duke. Note the high rate of tournament winners here; winning a tournament is the easiest way to get early quality wins, since in a big tournament the final win is guaranteed to be over a team with several wins of its own.

Week 2 college basketball power rating: getting there...

The first week's power rating was...amusing, and week two isn't much better in terms of getting a handle on who the best teams might be. But the inner workings are coming together.

The home court advantage is down from a ridiculous 14.4 to a much more reasonable 4.2 points. This shows that the algorithm is now "figuring out" that good teams are hosting bad ones, rather than a huge home court advantage being the main difference.

Also, the number of teams ranked is down from 391 to 359; as this number falls, the impact of games with these Division II, III, and NAIA teams dwindles as well. Blowouts against these teams inflate a team's rating in the early season, as we can still see in this week's numbers.

Strength power rating for games through Sunday, Nov. 23:

#   Team                       rec     Rating
1.  Tennessee Tech             3-0     34.84
2.  Florida                    3-0     33.35
3.  Southern Utah              1-2     30.82
4.  Utah                       3-1     30.74
5.  Iona                       2-1     29.88
6.  Gonzaga                    2-0     29.39
7.  George Mason               3-1     27.21
8.  Lipscomb                   2-1     26.86
9.  West Virginia              2-0     26.17
10. Wisconsin                  4-0     25.82

The early season sees great volatility in this ranking. With only 3 or 4 games per team, that's expected, and in such a wide field, the difference in competition is huge. How is Tennessee Tech #1? Well they beat Lipscomb, of course. Lipscomb? They're #8 essentially due to their 121-54 crushing of Oakland City. Oakland City? They're one of the other-division teams that will fade from consideration as the weeks go on. For now, though, they're considered as legit as any other team. Evansville only beat them by 14 points, which gives Lipscomb a favorable push right now.

Also, 1-2 Southern Utah is #3 despite being 1-2. What gives? More early-season shennanigans, that's what. Being 1-2 doesn't preclude a team from legitimately ranking high, since winning and losing games is of no importance in the Strength rating. Southern Utah beat non D-I Mesa, and lost to Florida by 14, but what really pumps their rating up is their 1-point loss to...Tennessee Tech! Yep, it's all inter-related. In a couple of weeks the real winners and losers will be sorted out. Tennessee Tech already lost again Monday, so even next week things will be re-arranged and should provide a bit of actual insight. Right now it's hard to get through the noise to know if indeed Florida, Gonzaga, West Virginia, and Wisconsin are truly doing well. The computer sees only letters, not a team with an established basketball program.

The Success ratings for the same time period:

#   Team                       rec     Rating
1.  Clemson                    5-0     10.15
2.  Georgia Tech               2-0      9.25
3.  Duke                       6-0      9.23
4.  Xavier                     5-0      8.93
5.  UAB                        4-0      8.11
6.  St. Bonaventure            3-1      7.88
7.  Wisconsin                  4-0      6.16
8.  Portland St.               3-0      5.54
9.  Temple                     3-1      5.54
10. Arkansas Little Rock       3-0      5.39

Clemson, #1 last week, adds a couple more wins. #2 Georgia Tech is an odd case: only two wins, one of them over a winless team, and they're #2? The secret is that the algorithm is really giving a premium to road wins right now. In the early season, most good teams host poor teams, and therefore there are few road wins to speak of. Even when "good" teams play each others, it's on a neutral site for a tournament. So at this point, any team that wins a road game is rewarded handsomely.

Georgia Tech beat 3-1 Mercer on the road, and that's where they get almost all their points. Likewise, St. Bonaventure won at Rutgers, and Temple has a road win and two neutral court wins, and only a loss to top-ranked Clemson. Two things—tournament season ending and more games to rank—will mitigate this over-reliance on road wins in the coming weeks. And the two power ratings will start to show more similar results; right now, Wisconsin is the only team common to the top ten in Strength and Success.

Early-season NCAA power ratings: more fun than informative

The first week's power ratings (through games of last Sunday) are a joyful celebration of the quirks of conclusions that can be drawn from a very small data set. Let's look at some of the interesting items in the Strength power rating. 

First of all, note the home field advantage number: 14.35!! Or about four times as large as it will be in just a few weeks. Right now, there is little sound information as to which teams are good teams, so the computer is "deciding" that home court—not the fact that good teams are hosting inferior ones—is a large factor in these blowouts.

Now take a look at the current top ten:

#   Team                       rec     Rating
1.  Washington St.             1-0     36.64
2.  Brown                      0-1     35.84
3.  New Mexico                 1-1     31.98
4.  Eastern Michigan           1-0     28.32
5.  Lipscomb                   1-0     26.32
6.  Tennessee Martin           1-0     25.32
7.  Marquette                  1-0     24.64
8.  Arkansas Little Rock       2-0     24.02
9.  Michigan St.               1-0     23.64
10. Baylor                     1-0     21.82

Washington State is #1 thanks to their 76-25 blowout of Mississippi Valley State which took on an even more powerful appearance since Arizona State beat MVSU by just 16. Michigan State and Marquette made the top ten just for randomly having a bigger blowout than most other teams. Other teams with blowout wins rank high right now, too, until over the next weeks those wins are diminished when the algorithm has sufficient information to conclude that the opposition was weak.

But what about Brown, who ranks #2 despite going 0-1? First, remember the huge home court advantage number. Brown lost at Rhode Island (#18) by just two points, meaning that they are considered to be 12 points better! And in turn, Rhode Island lost to #45 Duke—again, on the road—by just three, putting them 11 points ahead of the Blue Devils. So until the home field advantage calms down, both of these teams will rank higher than the teams they lost to, which is how 0-1 Brown is deemed the second-best team in the nation by this algorithm.

In a couple of weeks all this quirkiness will be gone; relative strengths will become apparent, diminishing blowout wins, and home court advantage will be well under double-digit values. But for now, a blowout win or a close loss on the road to a good team pays dividends.

Additionally, there are 391 teams listed at the moment. This will pare down to about 345 over the next month, as teams with too few games played are delisted and only those in Division I remain.

The Success rating is in its infancy, too:

#   Team                       rec     Rating
1.  Clemson                    3-0      6.38
2.  San Francisco              2-0      5.63
3.  Arkansas Little Rock       2-0      5.62
4.  Minnesota                  3-0      5.18
5.  Maine                      2-0      4.64
6.  Temple                     2-1      3.73
7.  Michigan                   2-0      3.26
8.  Bowling Green              2-1      3.19
9.  Cheyney                    1-0      3.13
10. Norfolk St.                1-0      3.13

Teams with more than one win rank better, and in particular teams that won tournaments rate higher. This is because in a tournament finalé, you are guaranteed to have beaten a team with a couple of wins. #1 Clemson won the Charleston classic to go 3-0, and one of the teams they beat, 2-1 Temple, is #6 despite having a loss. Likewise, #4 Minnesota won the NABC classic, beating 2-1 Bowling Green (2-1) in the second round.

Early in the year, when the rankings are combined into the aptly-named "Combined" power rating, the Strength ratings dominate:

#   Team                       rec     Rating
1.  Washington St.             1-0     37.09
2.  Brown                      0-1     35.10
3.  New Mexico                 1-1     32.28
4.  Arkansas Little Rock       2-0     29.65
5.  Eastern Michigan           1-0     28.77
6.  Lipscomb                   1-0     26.77
7.  Tennessee Martin           1-0     25.77
8.  Marquette                  1-0     25.09
9.  Maine                      2-0     24.82
10. Norfolk St.                1-0     24.49

This is practically a mirror of the Strength ratings. Teams that won several games, in a tournament perhaps, played tougher competition, and had closer games. Until the algorithm can differentiate the teams effectively, these closer games don't rate very high. As the season goes on, the Success ratings build and become more significant in the Combined tally, while the Strength factor remains basically constant after the first few weeks.

Boston #1, Lakers #2 in NBA Power Rating

The Los Angeles Lakers' big 106-78 win over the Clippers, combined with Utah's loss to Dallas, puts the Lakers at #2 overall in the SportsRatings NBA Power Rating; just two days ago Utah held a slim lead at second. The Boston Celtics are #1 by a wide margin.

The overall (combined Points and Win/Loss) Power Rating for games through April 10th, 2008:

#   Team                     record    rating
1.  Boston                    62-16    13.85
2.  LA Lakers                 54-25     9.28
3.  Utah                      52-27     8.98
4.  Detroit                   55-23     8.85
5.  New Orleans               55-23     8.20
6.  San Antonio               53-25     7.44
7.  Phoenix                   53-26     7.30
8.  Houston                   53-25     7.02
9.  Dallas                    50-29     6.96
10. Orlando                   49-29     6.07
11. Denver                    48-31     5.81
12. Golden St                 47-32     4.30
13. Toronto                   39-39     3.51
14. Philadephia               40-38     1.76
15. Washington                41-37     0.77
16. Cleveland                 43-35     0.63
17. Portland                  39-39     0.26
18. Atlanta                   36-42    -1.20
19. Sacramento                36-42    -1.21
20. Indiana                   34-44    -1.21
21. Chicago                   30-48    -2.56
22. Charlotte                 30-49    -4.01
23. New Jersey                32-46    -4.74
24. Memphis                   21-57    -5.15
25. Milwaukee                 26-52    -6.03
26. New York                  23-56    -6.06
27. LA Clippers               23-56    -6.33
28. Minnesota                 19-59    -6.41
29. Miami                     14-64    -8.20
30. Seattle                   18-61    -8.27

The nine Western Conference teams vying for playoff spots are highlighted. At this point it appears the Lakers and Jazz are the favorites to represent the West, while either Denver or Golden State is the weakest of the bunch. Appropriately, these are the two teams with the worst records, so it looks like the deserving teams will be in the Western playoffs.

Note that only three Eastern teams are among the top dozen. As expected, the Western teams dominate the top ten, though Detroit ranks among the best. Orlando, though, barely makes the top ten. Some Eastern teams that have already clinched playoff berths (Toronto, Philadelphia, Washington, and Cleveland) barely rate above average.

In the Points-only component, where wins and losses are not considered, Boston leads the league as well:

#   Team                     record    rating
1.  Boston                    62-16     9.48
2.  LA Lakers                 54-25     6.86
3.  Utah                      52-27     6.84
4.  Detroit                   55-23     6.37
5.  New Orleans               55-23     5.44
6.  Phoenix                   53-26     5.20
7.  San Antonio               53-25     4.93
8.  Dallas                    50-29     4.86
9.  Houston                   53-25     4.60
10. Orlando                   49-29     4.34
11. Denver                    48-31     4.16
12. Golden St                 47-32     2.65
13. Toronto                   39-39     2.52
14. Philadephia               40-38     0.69
15. Washington                41-37    -0.35
16. Cleveland                 43-35    -0.61
17. Portland                  39-39    -0.75
18. Indiana                   34-44    -1.87
19. Atlanta                   36-42    -1.94
20. Sacramento                36-42    -2.02
21. Chicago                   30-48    -3.10
22. Charlotte                 30-49    -4.57
23. New Jersey                32-46    -5.30
24. Memphis                   21-57    -5.47
25. New York                  23-56    -6.39
26. Milwaukee                 26-52    -6.43
27. LA Clippers               23-56    -6.64
28. Minnesota                 19-59    -6.69
29. Miami                     14-64    -8.37
30. Seattle                   18-61    -8.48

The NBA's home court advantage works out to about 1/2 point less than the college game. The players are more mature and more used to playing in hostile environments, but home crowd (and home officiating) still has its effect.

Finally, in the Win/Loss component, where a team's success—but not point spreads—are used, Boston is of course the clear leader.

#   Team                     record    rating   Points rnk
1.  Boston                    62-16     4.36        1
2.  New Orleans               55-23     2.76        5
3.  San Antonio               53-25     2.51        7
4.  Detroit                   55-23     2.47        4
5.  LA Lakers                 54-25     2.42        2
6.  Houston                   53-25     2.42        9
7.  Utah                      52-27     2.14        3
8.  Dallas                    50-29     2.10        8
9.  Phoenix                   53-26     2.09        6
10. Orlando                   49-29     1.73       10
11. Golden St                 47-32     1.65       12
12. Denver                    48-31     1.64       11
13. Cleveland                 43-35     1.24
14. Washington                41-37     1.12
15. Philadephia               40-38     1.07
16. Portland                  39-39     1.02
17. Toronto                   39-39     0.98
18. Sacramento                36-42     0.80
19. Atlanta                   36-42     0.74
20. Indiana                   34-44     0.65
21. Charlotte                 30-49     0.56
22. New Jersey                32-46     0.55
23. Chicago                   30-48     0.54
24. Milwaukee                 26-52     0.40
25. New York                  23-56     0.32
26. Memphis                   21-57     0.31
27. LA Clippers               23-56     0.31
28. Minnesota                 19-59     0.28
29. Seattle                   18-61     0.21
30. Miami                     14-64     0.17

There is a very close correlation between a team's record and their Win/Loss ranking, much more so than in college basketball, due to schedule parity as well as league parity compared to the NCAA. But according to these results, Golden State's schedule has been a bit harder than Denver's, and despite being a game behind, at this point they may deserve the final playoff spot more. However, they're only a fraction ahead, and as we saw in the Points and Overall ratings, Denver should be considered the slightly better team.

New Orleans and, surprisingly, San Antonio, both rank ahead of the East's #2, Detroit, though in this rating the Pistons are ahead of the Lakers and Jazz. So the league at this point can be summed up as:

• Boston a clear #1
• Eight teams—seven of them from the West—in the mix behind the Celtics
• Orlando the tenth best team, but 3rd best in the East, and
• Denver and Golden State rounding out the top 12 and vying for the final playoff spot

Power Ratings: KU's big win helps, but Tennessee stays #1 overall

The Kansas Jayhawks obliterated Texas Tech a few days ago, which helped their score on the Points power rating, but didn't budge them when combined with the Win-Loss scores; Tennessee maintained a razor-thin lead over Duke in the Combined rankings.

Points-only power rating through 3/6/08:

#   Team                      rec      Rating   chg from 2/28
1.  Kansas                    27-3     26.32     +1.32
2.  Duke                      26-3     23.52     -0.16
3.  North Carolina            28-2     22.97     +0.06
4.  UCLA                      27-3     22.48     -0.39
5.  Memphis                   29-1     21.92     -0.52
6.  Wisconsin                 25-4     20.09     +0.50
7.  Tennessee                 27-3     19.68     -0.49
8.  Marquette                 22-7     18.84     -0.37
9.  Georgetown                24-4     18.68     +0.02
10. Xavier                    25-5     18.50     -0.83

Kansas extended their lead in the Points-rating due to their 109-51 thrashing of Texas Tech. That one game, even though it is averaged out over a 30-game season, added well over a full point to their rating. They also beat Kansas State by 14 in the past 7 days, but that score basically matches their rating and thus had very little effect.

The only other team that significantly raised their score was Wisconsin, due to beating Penn State 77-41; this added a half-point to their rating and moved them past Tennessee, who struggled to beat Kentucky and Florida. Other losers were Memphis, who had lacklusters wins over Southern Miss and lowly SMU. And of course Xavier, which actually lost a game, fell the most (nearly a point) of the top ten teams.

#   Team                      rec      Rating
11. West Virginia             21-9     18.29
12. Louisville                24-6     18.07
13. Texas                     25-5     17.89
14. Stanford                  24-5     17.60
15. Washington St.            22-7     17.16
16. Kansas St.                19-10    16.85
17. Gonzaga                   24-6     16.75
18. Indiana                   25-5     16.69
19. Clemson                   21-8     16.65
20. Michigan St.              24-6     16.59

The second ten contains some interesting and underrated teams, such as bad luck victim West Virginia, surging Louisville (whose rating is still held down by their Nov-Dec performance), Kansas State, and Clemson.

The Win/Loss ratings for games through 3/6/08:

#   Team                      rec      Rating   chg from 2/28
1.  Tennessee                 27-3     46.86     +3.59
2.  Duke                      26-3     42.80     +3.93
3.  Texas                     25-5     38.72     -0.17
4.  UCLA                      27-3     34.00     +4.98
5.  Memphis                   29-1     33.42     +2.05
6.  North Carolina            28-2     30.05     +3.32
7.  Wisconsin                 25-4     25.76     +0.40
8.  Kansas                    27-3     25.58     +2.53
9.  Georgetown                24-4     22.54     +5.83
10. Vanderbilt                25-5     18.43     -1.38

 This week's big winner in the Win/Loss rankings is Georgetown, who makes the top ten after beating Marquette on the road. What a difference an overtime win makes; of course, this algorithm doesn't care how close the game is, or by how much you crushed the opponent.

Which is why Kansas doesn't get too much of a bump for the Texas Tech win. It's safe to say that most of their gain here was from beating Kansas State, and since both wins were at home the effect is further diminished. Likewise Wisconsin gets less of a boost in this rating for beating Penn State than they did in the Points rating, which is unusual because the Win/Loss is an aggregate rating: with each win, your score should increase, but the Points rating is averaged, so most games shouldn't affect the rating much at all, and you can easily lose points for a narrow win over a bad team.

Vanderbilt falls due to losing, as expected, but Texas slips only slightly despite losing on Saturday. The teams they've beaten (Kansas, UCLA, Tennessee) keep moving up, so that offsets even the effects of a loss.

Combined Win/Loss + Points rating through 3/6/08:

#   Team                      rec      Rating
1.  Tennessee                 27-3     66.55
2.  Duke                      26-3     66.33
3.  Texas                     25-5     56.61
4.  UCLA                      27-3     56.48
5.  Memphis                   29-1     55.35
6.  North Carolina            28-2     53.03
7.  Kansas                    27-3     51.91
8.  Wisconsin                 25-4     45.85
9.  Georgetown                24-4     41.23
10. Louisville                24-6     35.80

Put it all together and you have Tennessee over Duke by a razor's edge, with everyone else falling behind. Texas leads a close three-way race for #3 with UCLA and Memphis, and basketball conglomerates North Carolina and Kansas next in line. Underrated Wisconsin (who should be fairly rated in the polls soon, after losses by Xavier and Stanford) is 8th, and Georgetown and Louisville fill out the top ten prior to their Big East title clash on Saturday.

Power Ratings: Memphis falls to fourth after loss

Tennesse grabbed the #1 spot in the overall power rating after beating Memphis, and held onto it despite losing to Vanderbilt. The Tigers fell to fourth overall after having their undefeated record spoiled.

The Win/Loss ratings for games through 2/28:
 
#   Team                      rec      Rating   Last week
1.  Tennessee                 25-3     43.27     32.98 (4)
2.  Texas                     24-4     38.89     33.89 (3)
3.  Duke                      24-3     38.87     35.47 (2)
4.  Memphis                   27-1     31.37     51.18 (1)
5.  UCLA                      25-3     29.02     27.48 (5)
6.  North Carolina            26-2     26.73     24.16 (7)
7.  Wisconsin                 24-4     25.36     20.94 (8)
8.  Kansas                    25-3     23.05     25.65 (6)
9.  Vanderbilt                24-4     19.81     12.00 (21)
10. Xavier                    24-4     18.58     16.50 (11)

Tennessee got such a boost from beating Memphis on the road that even losing to Vanderbilt didn't keep them off the top spot. The Commodores, however, earned quite a few points and jumped into the top 10.

Overall, the top four teams inverted themselves from last week, as Texas slipped past Duke by a hair and Memphis fell to fourth. Kansas' loss dumped them to #8, while Xavier moved into the top 10 past Stanford.

Points-only power rating through 2/28:

#   Team                      rec      Rating   W/L rank
1.  Kansas                    25-3     25.00       8
2.  Duke                      24-3     23.68       3
3.  North Carolina            26-2     22.91       6
4.  UCLA                      25-3     22.87       5
5.  Memphis                   27-1     22.44       4
6.  Tennessee                 25-3     20.17       1
7.  Wisconsin                 24-4     19.61       7
8.  Xavier                    24-4     19.33       10
9.  Marquette                 21-6     19.21       14
10. Georgetown                23-4     18.66       13

Kansas still holds a fairly big lead in the points-only algorithm; there's a growing disconnect between their rating here and in the Win/Loss rating, where their relatively soft schedule and few quality wins are hurting them.

Marquette has been playing well and winning, and they rate even higher than their record and résumé would imply. So, to and extent, does Georgetown, although with only four losses the Hoyas don't look out of place at all in the top ten.

Combined Win/Loss + Points rating through 2/28:

lw  #  Team                      rec      Rating   AP rank
3   1. Tennessee                 25-3     63.45      1
2   2. Duke                      24-3     62.56      7
4   3. Texas                     24-4     57.39      5
1   4. Memphis                   27-1     53.82      2
6   5. UCLA                      25-3     51.90      4
7   6. North Carolina            26-2     49.64      3
5   7. Kansas                    25-3     48.05      6
8   8. Wisconsin                 24-4     44.98     10
9   9. Xavier                    24-4     37.92      9
12 10. Marquette                 21-6     35.73     21
11 11. Georgetown                23-4     35.33     11
16 12. Louisville                23-6     34.89     13
10 13. Stanford                  23-4     34.65      8
-- 14. Vanderbilt                24-4     31.39     18
24 15. Drake                     24-4     30.65     20
13 16. Michigan St.              22-6     30.64     19
19 17. Indiana                   24-4     30.43     12
17 18. Connecticut               22-6     29.31     15
22 19. Purdue                    22-6     29.21     16
15 20. Washington St.            22-6     29.04     22
18 21. Notre Dame                21-6     28.77     17
14 22. Butler                    26-3     26.41     14
25 23. Texas A&M                 21-7     25.98     --
20 24. Pittsburgh                20-8     25.74     --
-- 25. Clemson                   20-7     24.81     --

Some interesting movement in the overall power rating since last Thursday. Naturally Tennessee takes over the top spot, though I'm sure the AP will drop them for their loss. The AP rankings are from Monday and don't reflect this week's action.

Vanderbilt was only 28th last week; the Tennessee game really added to their score. Clemson also advances because of their win over Miami.

Drake performed similarly to Tennessee: a big win Saturday, then a loss this week. But like the Volunteers, the big win adds more points than the loss takes away and the Bulldogs jump nine spots.

Power Rating update 2/21: Duke still #2 in both lists

Despite losing two straight, Duke remains #2 in both power ratings, and in the new combined power rating.

The Win/Loss ratings for games through 2/21:

#   Team                      rec      Rating   Pts rank
1.  Memphis                   26-0     51.18       3
2.  Duke                      22-3     35.47       2
3.  Texas                     22-4     33.89      15
4.  Tennessee                 24-2     32.98       6
5.  UCLA                      23-3     27.84       5
6.  Kansas                    24-2     25.65       1
7.  North Carolina            25-2     24.16       4
8.  Wisconsin                 22-4     20.94       8
9.  Butler                    25-2     18.12      36
10. Stanford                  21-4     17.22      13

The Blue Devils were closing in on Memphis' #1 rank in the Win/Loss power rating, which doesn't use score margin. But now the Tigers are far and away the top team, as everyone else has 2 or more losses. Texas continues their climb toward the top, bracketbuster Butler sits at #9, while Drake's 3rd loss drops them to #19.

Points-only power rating through 2/21:

#   Team                      rec      Rating   W/L rank
1.  Kansas                    24-2     25.68       6
2.  Duke                      22-3     23.57       2
3.  Memphis                   26-0     23.04       1
4.  North Carolina            25-2     22.96       7
5.  UCLA                      23-3     22.22       5
6.  Tennessee                 24-2     20.15       4
7.  Xavier                    23-4     19.31      11
8.  Wisconsin                 22-4     19.20       8
9.  Georgetown                20-4     18.77      13
10. Marquette                 19-6     18.76      16

Duke doesn't fall in the points-only rating either, though that's more to be expected. The loss to Miami was only one point, and even with the Wake Forest 13 point margin, those are both decent teams (#42 and #68) and were road games. Averaging these among Duke's 25 games lowers their rating, but not enough for Memphis to overtake them.

It's interesting how the two lists are starting to come together. All of the teams in the Points top ten are 16th or better. While Butler is still an aberration, Drake is only 10 spots apart on the two lists (19th and 29th), and West Virginia has slid to 16th in Points after being 7th or better most of the year while their Win/Loss ranking is far lower.

To give an overall idea of team strength, I've combined the two rating systems, like I do for college football. It makes a pretty decent balance between winning games and dominating scorewise:

Combined Win/Loss + Points rating through 2/21:

#   Team                      rec      Rating   AP rank
1.  Memphis                   26-0     74.23       1
2.  Duke                      22-3     59.04       3
3.  Tennessee                 24-2     53.13       2
4.  Texas                     22-4     51.71       7
5.  Kansas                    24-2     51.34       4
6.  UCLA                      23-3     50.07       6
7.  North Carolina            25-2     47.12       3
8.  Wisconsin                 22-4     40.14      11
9.  Xavier                    23-4     35.79      10
10. Stanford                  21-4     35.20       9
11. Georgetown                20-4     33.40      12
12. Marquette                 19-6     32.69      25
13. Michigan St.              21-5     31.79      19
14. Butler                    25-2     31.11       8
15. Washington St.            21-5     30.75      17
16. Louisville                21-6     30.16      18
17. Connecticut               21-5     29.68      13
18. Notre Dame                20-5     29.66      21
19. Indiana                   22-4     29.65      15
20. Pittsburgh                19-7     26.95      --
21. St. Mary's                23-3     26.93      23
22. Purdue                    21-6     26.83      14
23. Kansas St.                18-7     26.63      24
24. Drake                     23-3     26.62      16
25. Texas A&M                 20-6     25.51      22

All of the teams in this week's AP top 25 are in the Combined Power Rating top 25, with the exception of Vanderbilt. Pittsburgh makes the power rating list instead. Of course, some of these teams have lost since the AP poll was out, but it's interesting to compare the algorithm's results with aggregated informed human opinion.