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Purdue Boilermakers
Seed: 1
Record: 32-4
Conference: Big Ten
vs.
Tennessee Volunteers
Seed: 2
Record: 27-8
Conference: SEC
Date: Sunday, March 31
Time: 2:20pm Eastern
Region: Midwest
Location: Detroit, MI
Channel: CBS
The only 1-seed vs. 2-seed game on the docket.
Purdue Tennessee
Power Ratings
Strength: #3 Strength: #7
Median: #4 Median: #7
Markov: #2 Markov: #5
Pomeroy: #3 Pomeroy: #6
Offense: #3 Offense: #28
Defense: #17 Defense: #3
BPI: #3 BPI: #6
LRMC: #4 LRMC: #8
Other Measures:
Tempo (Offense): #229 Tempo (Offense): #24
Consistency: #181 Consistency: #256
2nd half season: #2 2nd half season: #5
Last 6: #3 Last 6: #21
Purdue is a solid 1-seed (top 4 everywhere) and Tennessee is a solid 2-seed (ranked 5-8 everywhere). Of most interest? Purdue's #3 offense vs. Tennessee's #3 defense. When the Vols have the ball their offense is at a bit of a disadvantage, but it's not much, and when we look at the personnel matchups things may be better (or worse) for them.
Once again Purdue will be facing a team that speeds things up, and the Vols are a bit inconsistent which helps stir things up. Tennessee's recent performance looks bad but that was due to the period just before the tournament; over the last 3 games (the tournament) they're #7, so about where they should be.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (16): (13)Samford+53, (14)Morehead St.+30, =(5)Gonzaga+10, =(2)Tennessee+4, =(2)Marquette+3, =(4)Alabama+6, (2)Arizona+8, (3)Illinois+5, (9)Northwestern+OT, @(5)Wisconsin+6, (9)Michigan St.+6, @(3)Illinois+6, (5)Wisconsin+8, =(9)Michigan St.+5, =(16)Grambling St.+28, =(8)Utah St.+39, =(5)Gonzaga+12
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (8): =(5)Gonzaga+10, =(2)Tennessee+4, =(2)Marquette+3, =(4)Alabama+6, (2)Arizona+8, (3)Illinois+5, @(3)Illinois+6, =(5)Gonzaga+12
- Losses to tournament teams (3): @(9)Northwestern-OT, @(8)Nebraska-16, =(5)Wisconsin-OT
- Other losses (1): @Ohio St.-4
Overview: Purdue has one hell of a résumé, with three 2-seeds (Tennessee, Marquette, and Arizona) among their non-conference wins, the first two on neutral courts. They beat 4-seed Alabama and 5-seed Gonzaga (both underseeded for how good they are), again, on neutral courts. And their best non-conference wins might have been beating 13-seed Samford 98-45 and 14-seed Morehead State 87-57 in their first two games. Purdue has 7 wins over the Sweet Sixteen from six different conferences, each one except the ACC and Mountain West.
The Big Ten is where Purdue suffered all four losses, and to some fairly pedestrian teams: 5-seed Wisconsin, 8-seed Nebraska, 9-seed Northwestern, and NIT pick Ohio State. Two of the four losses were in overtime.
Purdue revolves around Zack Edey, a two time Player of the Year. He puts up 24.4 points and grabs 11.7 rebounds per game. Four other Boilermakers average double figures but he's the man; without him, they'd probably be an 8-seed playing a 1-seed instead of the other way around. Edey had 30 points and 21 rebounds against Grambling State. Purdue might have played their best game (2nd best, by our chart numbers) of the season in beating Utah State 106-67, with Edey scoring 23. He had 27 in the win over Gonzaga.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (13): @(5)Wisconsin+10, (3)Illinois+7, =(11)N.C. State+9, (7)Florida+19, (4)Alabama+20, @(3)Kentucky+11, (9)Texas A&M+35, (4)Auburn+8, @(4)Alabama+7, @(6)South Carolina+7, =(15)Saint Peter's+34, =(7)Texas+4, =(3)Creighton+7
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (5): (3)Illinois+7, =(11)N.C. State+9, (4)Alabama+20, @(4)Alabama+7, =(3)Creighton+7
- Losses to tournament teams (8): =(1)Purdue-4, =(4)Kansas-9, @(1)North Carolina-8, @(8)Mississippi St.-5, (6)South Carolina-4, @(9)Texas A&M-16, (3)Kentucky-4, =(8)Mississippi St.-17
- Other losses (0): None
Overview: Well, this chart almost gave me pause. I didn't like how it ended for Tennessee, a slow drop-off to the two losses, finishing in their worst performance of the season. Talk about ending on a bad note. They recovered from it with the opening wins, but it sure shows wildly erratic play game to game, and losing in the first round of your conference championship is a red flag for Final Four advancement. But let's look at the good: 10 wins over tournament teams, and quite significantly, zero losses to non-tournament teams. Along the way Tennessee beat 3-seed Illinois, 3-seed Kentucky, and 4-seed Alabama and 4-seed Auburn twice each. They also lost to both 1-seeds they faced, Purdue and North Carolina.
Tennessee is better on defense (where they are elite) than on offense, but they're no slouch. Naismith short-lister Dalton Knecht averages 21.1 points per game and shoots almost 40% behind the 3-pt line. In the St. Peter's win Knecht had 23 on 4 of 8 3-point shooting. He led with 18 against Texas, and had 24 against Creighton.
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Game Analysis: When a 1-seed meets a 2-seed in a regional final it's pretty much a 50/50 game and history bears this out. But with Zack Edey in the game, it's best to look at how teams match up with a team that has a dominant center, a rarity in today's game.
Just like last time with Purdue vs. Gonzaga, these teams met in November and Purdue won the game, 71-67. It was close, will it be different this time? Again I'll look at what "should" happen on paper and compare it with what did happen last time they met.
The key matchups happen when Purdue has the ball (#3 offense) vs. Tennessee's #3 defense. Purdue shoots very well, but it's not 2-pointers where they are best, in fact Tennessee should defend Edey very well underneath. The Boilermakers are #1 in 3-pointers, shooting 41%. They might have to make their threes to win if Edey gets bottled up. But they rebound very well on offense (#6) and that's a big advantage over Tennessee here. To combat that, Tennessee should get a number of steals, but on the other hand this will lead to quite a few fouls. Tennessee normally gets a lot of blocks but probably won't vs. Purdue.
When Tennessee has the ball don't look for many turnovers at all, as Purdue doesn't go for steals but also rarely fouls at all. Purdue defends shots well and Tennessee doesn't shoot well, so they need to rebound but Purdue is a great rebounding team so that puts a wrench in Tennessee's offense on a very basic level. If they miss a lot of shots, have to really fight for rebounds, and don't get fouled, that limits their opportunities to score. Guess they better hope Dalton Knecht has one of his "hot" games?
The last time they met (in Hawaii in November), Tennessee indeed shot poorly (41% on 2s, 27% on threes), and struggled for 10 offensive rebounds, both of which match the prediction. But they did get to the foul line a lot, taking 30 attempts against 57 FG attempts, more than a 50% FTA/FGA which is much higher than their offensive average and a LOT higher than Purdue's defense averages. So somehow Tennessee got Purdue to foul a lot, and it kept them in the game as they made 21 free throws.
Purdue didn't shoot the ball well that game either, which is the other reason Tennessee kept it close. They made 4 of 15 threes and 15 of 39 2s, both well below their average, so either they had an off-day or the Vols were able to guard them particularly well. We can probably assume this was the case for 2-pointers but 3-pointers are mostly due to the shooter really. Purdue did have the expected rebounding edge on offense, with 17 offensive rebounds, and overall they won the boards 44 to 31. But they got most of their points the same way Tennessee did: at the foul line. They only shot 60% from the free throw line but got there 48 times, an 89% FTA/FGA ratio which is off the charts. So Tennessee did foul a lot—both teams did—and Purdue took advantage (despite missing a whopping 19 attempts).
Despite Purdue's shooting woes in the first game Edey was still 7 of 10 from the floor, so they weren't exactly stopping him or even slowing him down. He finished with 23 points, but Fletcher Loyer led with 27 points, making 10 of 11 free throws.
So the only thing that played out different than the "on paper" exercise was that Purdue fouled Tennessee a lot, and Purdue missed their 2-point shots (when someone other than Edey shot). If we assume this happens again because it's just the dynamic of these eams, that helps Tennessee. But we can also assume that Purdue will shoot at least a bit better on 3s, and shoot better on free throws this time around, closer to their 72% average. This is bad news for Tennessee, and it might not be as close as the first game unless they keep the fouling down. Since the last game was on a neutral court, it probably won't be much different, and Tennessee didn't show an ability to slow down Edey much.
Again Dalton Knecht is the X factor; he hadn't been with the Vols for many games at the time of the first meeting and scored 16 points, so if he can have a 30 point game, the Vols can win.
Vegas Line:
Purdue by 3 1/2
Power rating: spread
Purdue by 3.2
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Purdue: 55.6%
Tennessee: 44.4%
Purdue pretty much had a home court advantage against Gonzaga, but Tennessee isn't quite as far away as Seattle. Interestingly, at the Elite Eight level, 2-seeds have won more meetings than 1-seeds, 51.1% to 48.9%. 1-seeds have won 70% of the meetings in the Final Four, but within the same regional bracket the 2-seeds are ahead 24 wins to 23 wins, so Purdue can tie things for the 1-seeds, or Tennessee can extend the lead for the 2-seeds.
Bottom line: Based on the last meeting between the two teams, Purdue wins, and probably by a wider margin as they shoot better from the foul line.
Final prediction: Purdue 80, Tennessee 69
More previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule.