College Basketball Markov Chain ranking for D-I games of 2022-2023 season
This is a Markov Chain rating inspired by the LRMC rating system. This implementation counts the number of times the "ball" stays with the same team over thousands of random game "bounces." A random opponent is chosen from a team's schedule, and if they "win" the ball stays with them, otherwise it goes to the other team. It uses the final game score to calculate the likelihood a team would win the same game again based on a normal distribution (overtime games are 50/50). The rating is the total number of times a team has "possession" in the Markov chain, relative to all other Div-I teams.
The games data file used for this rating is from Ken Pomeroy's site.
Principles for this rating
Score margin: Used
Winning/Losing: Not used
Home court: Used
Date played: Not used
Rating is the relative number of "wins" based on Markov chain state
Home court advantage: set to 3 points
# Team record Rating
1. Connecticut 31-8 141.75
2. UCLA 31-6 95.05
3. Houston 33-4 89.41
4. Alabama 31-6 88.15
5. Purdue 29-6 85.43
6. Texas 29-9 85.19
7. Marquette 29-7 84.38
8. Gonzaga 30-6 72.84
9. Xavier 27-10 71.46
10. Creighton 24-13 71.40
11. Kansas 28-8 70.90
12. Arizona 28-7 70.38
13. Miami FL 29-8 61.88
14. Tennessee 25-11 61.65
15. San Diego St. 31-7 58.70
16. Florida Atlantic 33-4 57.39
17. Memphis 26-9 55.49
18. Baylor 23-11 51.82
19. Duke 27-9 50.71
20. Maryland 22-13 50.68
21. TCU 22-13 50.40
22. Saint Mary's 26-8 50.08
23. Kansas St. 26-10 49.27
24. Indiana 23-12 49.18
25. Michigan St. 21-13 46.77
26. Penn St. 23-14 46.33
27. West Virginia 19-15 45.12
28. Iowa St. 19-14 44.31
29. Northwestern 22-12 44.08
30. Virginia 25-8 43.08
31. Arkansas 22-14 42.67
32. Michigan 18-16 41.89
33. Utah St. 25-9 41.80
34. Providence 21-12 40.62
35. UAB 28-10 40.57
36. Rutgers 19-15 40.52
37. Auburn 21-13 40.16
38. Illinois 20-13 40.12
39. Texas A&M 25-10 39.95
40. Kentucky 22-12 39.84
41. North Texas 29-7 38.48
42. Boise St. 23-10 37.52
43. Iowa 19-14 37.02
44. USC 22-11 36.64
45. Wisconsin 20-15 36.29
46. North Carolina 20-13 35.94
47. Pittsburgh 24-12 35.51
48. Ohio St. 16-19 34.80
49. Oklahoma St. 20-16 34.56
50. Oregon 21-15 34.53
51. N.C. State 23-11 34.14
52. Villanova 17-17 33.87
53. Arizona St. 23-13 33.15
54. Missouri 25-10 31.90
55. Oklahoma 15-17 31.69
56. Cincinnati 22-13 31.54
57. Clemson 23-11 31.16
58. VCU 27-8 29.88
59. Utah Valley 25-9 29.86
60. Mississippi St. 21-13 29.36
61. Colorado 18-17 28.47
62. Nevada 21-11 28.36
63. St. John's 18-15 28.30
64. Texas Tech 16-16 28.26
65. Kent St. 26-7 28.25
66. New Mexico 21-12 27.54
67. Seton Hall 16-16 27.53
68. Washington St. 17-17 26.94
69. Virginia Tech 19-15 26.64
70. UCF 19-15 26.22
71. Charleston 30-4 25.22
72. Vanderbilt 22-15 25.12
73. Liberty 24-9 24.46
74. Iona 27-8 24.10
75. Wake Forest 19-14 23.94
76. Drake 26-8 23.26
77. Marshall 23-8 22.97
78. Dayton 22-12 22.64
79. BYU 17-15 22.55
80. Florida 16-17 22.12
81. Toledo 26-8 21.53
82. Utah 17-15 20.79
83. Stanford 14-19 20.39
84. Nebraska 16-16 20.31
85. Santa Clara 22-10 20.24
86. Charlotte 22-14 19.81
87. Yale 19-9 19.65
88. Louisiana 23-8 19.35
89. UNLV 18-13 18.81
90. Temple 16-16 18.80
91. Sam Houston St. 22-8 18.47
92. Oral Roberts 26-5 18.42
93. Princeton 21-9 18.32
94. Furman 25-8 18.31
95. Hofstra 24-10 18.09
96. Saint Louis 20-12 17.51
97. San Jose St. 20-14 17.29
98. UC Irvine 21-12 17.28
99. Tulane 20-11 16.45
100. Syracuse 17-15 16.38
101. Washington 16-16 16.16
102. Wichita St. 17-15 16.13
103. South Alabama 17-16 15.86
104. James Madison 19-11 15.79
105. Southern Utah 20-13 15.67
106. Southern Miss 22-8 15.60
107. San Francisco 19-14 15.55
108. Indiana St. 22-13 15.25
109. Loyola Marymount 18-12 15.02
110. Bradley 24-10 14.89
111. Mississippi 12-21 14.85
112. UC Santa Barbara 25-8 14.82
113. Towson 21-12 14.67
114. Colorado St. 14-18 14.64
115. Middle Tennessee 17-14 14.63
116. Grand Canyon 21-12 14.11
117. Fordham 25-8 13.94
118. Akron 20-11 13.53
119. Butler 14-18 13.45
120. Kennesaw St. 23-9 13.30
121. UMass Lowell 24-8 13.12
122. Ohio 18-14 12.77
123. Notre Dame 11-21 12.74
124. Vermont 22-11 12.71
125. Duquesne 20-13 12.62
126. DePaul 10-23 12.53
127. Eastern Washington 22-11 12.40
128. Hawaii 21-11 12.37
129. South Florida 14-18 12.30
130. Colgate 25-9 12.21
131. Montana St. 23-10 12.19
132. Boston College 16-17 12.14
133. Troy 17-13 11.88
134. Rice 16-16 11.71
135. Youngstown St. 22-10 11.70
136. Davidson 15-16 11.69
137. Penn 16-13 11.65
138. UNC Greensboro 18-12 11.64
139. Richmond 15-18 11.52
140. Southern Illinois 22-10 11.42
141. George Mason 20-13 11.41
142. Radford 19-15 11.40
143. Quinnipiac 19-12 11.31
144. Western Kentucky 15-16 11.30
145. Samford 18-10 11.16
146. Belmont 20-11 11.13
147. Stephen F. Austin 16-13 11.12
148. UC Riverside 21-12 11.05
149. Louisiana Tech 12-18 11.02
150. LSU 14-19 10.83
151. Georgia 16-16 10.80
152. Georgia Tech 13-18 10.59
153. Cornell 15-11 10.45
154. Seattle 18-12 10.44
155. Fresno St. 10-20 10.43
156. Ball St. 18-12 10.24
157. UNC Asheville 25-8 10.24
158. East Carolina 16-17 10.18
159. Air Force 14-18 10.15
160. Siena 17-15 10.04
161. UNC Wilmington 22-10 9.91
162. UTEP 12-18 9.90
163. Old Dominion 18-12 9.87
164. Missouri St. 16-15 9.71
165. Tarleton St. 13-17 9.71
166. St. Bonaventure 14-18 9.66
167. Cal St. Fullerton 18-13 9.57
168. Eastern Kentucky 20-14 9.54
169. Cal Baptist 15-16 9.43
170. Lipscomb 17-13 9.37
171. South Carolina 11-21 9.33
172. Northern Kentucky 20-13 9.05
173. FIU 12-18 8.88
174. Northwestern St. 21-11 8.84
175. Wyoming 8-22 8.83
176. Florida Gulf Coast 16-15 8.76
177. Florida St. 9-23 8.76
178. Massachusetts 15-16 8.65
179. South Dakota St. 18-13 8.49
180. Utah Tech 11-19 8.42
181. Fairleigh Dickinson 19-16 8.40
182. Texas St. 14-18 8.40
183. Minnesota 9-22 8.40
184. Cleveland St. 20-13 8.35
185. Grambling St. 22-9 8.35
186. Georgetown 7-25 8.27
187. SMU 10-22 8.26
188. Rider 15-14 8.18
189. Chattanooga 15-17 8.15
190. Georgia Southern 14-16 8.13
191. Detroit Mercy 13-19 8.10
192. Long Beach St. 15-16 8.06
193. Montana 16-14 8.03
194. Saint Joseph's 16-17 8.02
195. Weber St. 16-15 7.99
196. Portland 12-19 7.98
197. Longwood 18-12 7.95
198. Wofford 14-16 7.90
199. Oregon St. 10-21 7.86
200. Brown 14-13 7.86
201. Harvard 12-14 7.85
202. Appalachian St. 13-16 7.80
203. North Carolina Central 14-12 7.71
204. UC Davis 16-14 7.62
205. Campbell 14-18 7.55
206. La Salle 15-19 7.39
207. Stetson 15-14 7.33
208. George Washington 15-16 7.24
209. Queens 15-15 7.23
210. Texas A&M Corpus Chris 20-11 7.23
211. Pacific 14-17 7.21
212. Gardner Webb 13-16 7.20
213. Wright St. 16-15 7.18
214. Northern Arizona 10-23 7.04
215. Northern Iowa 13-18 7.03
216. Navy 17-13 6.97
217. Pepperdine 7-22 6.83
218. Drexel 16-15 6.66
219. Bryant 15-13 6.63
220. St. Thomas 17-14 6.53
221. Murray St. 16-15 6.45
222. Delaware 16-16 6.25
223. Buffalo 13-17 6.22
224. Milwaukee 19-12 6.18
225. Fairfield 12-18 6.12
226. SIU Edwardsville 16-14 6.00
227. Mercer 12-19 5.99
228. Norfolk St. 18-11 5.99
229. Loyola Chicago 10-21 5.98
230. Howard 19-13 5.94
231. San Diego 9-20 5.91
232. Rhode Island 9-22 5.89
233. Alcorn St. 18-14 5.82
234. Morehead St. 18-12 5.75
235. Southeast Missouri St. 17-17 5.72
236. Sacramento St. 12-18 5.71
237. Western Carolina 15-16 5.68
238. Purdue Fort Wayne 15-15 5.62
239. New Mexico St. 6-15 5.58
240. Robert Morris 14-17 5.56
241. California 3-29 5.55
242. UT Arlington 8-21 5.50
243. Canisius 9-20 5.46
244. Niagara 15-15 5.46
245. UMBC 17-14 5.31
246. Dartmouth 8-18 5.31
247. Abilene Christian 9-17 5.29
248. East Tennessee St. 10-20 5.12
249. Lafayette 11-23 5.10
250. American 17-15 5.08
251. Northern Illinois 12-18 5.04
252. Northern Colorado 12-19 5.04
253. Louisville 4-28 4.99
254. USC Upstate 14-16 4.98
255. Jacksonville 10-16 4.93
256. Prairie View A&M 11-19 4.87
257. Mount St. Mary's 12-20 4.83
258. North Dakota St. 14-17 4.79
259. Idaho St. 9-21 4.75
260. Southern Indiana 13-17 4.74
261. Winthrop 13-17 4.64
262. North Florida 12-17 4.62
263. UTSA 8-22 4.56
264. Army 15-16 4.54
265. Marist 13-20 4.50
266. Cal Poly 6-25 4.45
267. Southern 13-17 4.44
268. Nicholls St. 12-15 4.41
269. Bellarmine 12-18 4.41
270. Jacksonville St. 10-18 4.38
271. Southeastern Louisiana 15-14 4.37
272. Manhattan 11-18 4.36
273. Boston University 14-17 4.36
274. UC San Diego 8-20 4.31
275. North Alabama 15-15 4.30
276. Portland St. 10-19 4.28
277. Illinois St. 11-21 4.24
278. UT Rio Grande Valley 11-17 4.18
279. Tennessee Tech 13-17 4.16
280. Georgia St. 7-21 4.15
281. Maryland Eastern Shore 14-13 4.12
282. Tennessee Martin 15-14 4.11
283. Eastern Michigan 7-23 4.11
284. Saint Peter's 13-18 4.10
285. Valparaiso 10-21 4.08
286. Oakland 12-19 4.06
287. Maine 11-17 4.03
288. Miami OH 9-20 4.03
289. High Point 12-17 3.99
290. UMKC 10-20 3.98
291. North Dakota 11-20 3.98
292. New Hampshire 13-15 3.95
293. Texas Southern 12-21 3.90
294. Arkansas St. 10-20 3.86
295. Texas A&M Commerce 12-20 3.85
296. Bucknell 11-20 3.67
297. Louisiana Monroe 8-21 3.66
298. Tennessee St. 14-14 3.64
299. Cal St. Bakersfield 9-22 3.61
300. Coastal Carolina 8-20 3.60
301. Wagner 13-13 3.50
302. Jackson St. 14-19 3.50
303. Western Illinois 13-14 3.50
304. Bowling Green 9-20 3.46
305. Illinois Chicago 11-20 3.45
306. Morgan St. 11-16 3.45
307. Chicago St. 7-20 3.45
308. South Dakota 10-19 3.43
309. Lehigh 14-14 3.43
310. Arkansas Pine Bluff 6-21 3.41
311. Western Michigan 5-23 3.39
312. Northeastern 10-20 3.22
313. Idaho 8-22 3.20
314. Sacred Heart 15-17 3.17
315. William & Mary 11-20 3.15
316. Eastern Illinois 7-22 3.14
317. Central Michigan 8-21 3.12
318. Charleston Southern 8-21 3.12
319. Binghamton 11-18 3.12
320. Alabama A&M 12-18 3.11
321. Merrimack 16-16 3.10
322. North Carolina A&T 10-19 3.07
323. The Citadel 9-22 3.06
324. Tulsa 5-25 2.95
325. Denver 13-17 2.93
326. Cal St. Northridge 5-25 2.90
327. Little Rock 8-21 2.83
328. Stonehill 13-17 2.78
329. Stony Brook 9-22 2.77
330. Nebraska Omaha 8-23 2.71
331. Loyola MD 11-20 2.64
332. Central Connecticut 10-22 2.60
333. NJIT 6-23 2.60
334. Coppin St. 9-23 2.57
335. Austin Peay 6-22 2.55
336. McNeese St. 10-23 2.53
337. Presbyterian 3-27 2.47
338. New Orleans 10-20 2.43
339. St. Francis PA 11-18 2.42
340. Central Arkansas 8-22 2.39
341. Albany 6-23 2.39
342. Elon 6-24 2.27
343. Incarnate Word 9-19 2.24
344. Holy Cross 8-22 2.24
345. Columbia 5-22 2.15
346. VMI 4-25 2.14
347. South Carolina St. 4-26 2.12
348. Lamar 6-22 1.93
349. Bethune Cookman 10-20 1.93
350. Evansville 5-27 1.87
351. Hampton 7-24 1.80
352. Alabama St. 7-23 1.79
353. Lindenwood 8-21 1.76
354. Monmouth 7-26 1.74
355. St. Francis NY 12-16 1.71
356. Delaware St. 5-23 1.66
357. Houston Christian 7-22 1.63
358. Mississippi Valley St. 5-27 1.43
359. IUPUI 3-27 1.36
360. Florida A&M 5-22 1.24
361. Green Bay 3-29 1.18
362. Hartford 2-23 0.67
363. LIU 1-26 0.53
