College Basketball Markov Chain ranking for D-I games of 2023-2024 season
This is a Markov Chain rating inspired by the LRMC rating system. This implementation counts the number of times the "ball" stays with the same team over thousands of random game "bounces." A random opponent is chosen from a team's schedule, and if they "win" the ball stays with them, otherwise it goes to the other team. It uses the final game score to calculate the likelihood a team would win the same game again based on a normal distribution (overtime games are 50/50). The rating is the total number of times a team has "possession" in the Markov chain, relative to all other Div-I teams.
The games data file used for this rating is from Ken Pomeroy's site.
Principles for this rating
Score margin: Used
Winning/Losing: Not used
Home court: Used
Date played: Not used
Rating is the relative number of "wins" based on Markov chain state
Home court advantage: set to 3 points
# Team record Rating
1. Connecticut 37-3 260.28
2. Purdue 34-5 137.75
3. Houston 32-5 115.90
4. North Carolina 29-8 110.20
5. Auburn 27-8 99.94
6. Tennessee 27-9 99.24
7. Arizona 27-9 98.29
8. Iowa St. 29-8 88.28
9. Duke 27-9 83.70
10. Illinois 29-9 78.65
11. Creighton 25-10 76.00
12. Marquette 27-10 71.07
13. Clemson 24-12 62.62
14. Kentucky 23-10 60.56
15. Baylor 23-11 59.23
16. Alabama 25-12 58.23
17. Gonzaga 26-8 55.06
18. Florida 24-12 54.74
19. Wisconsin 22-14 54.04
20. Kansas 22-11 53.91
21. Colorado 26-11 52.30
22. Michigan St. 20-15 50.80
23. St. John's 20-13 50.49
24. N.C. State 26-15 49.88
25. BYU 23-11 48.62
26. Texas A&M 21-15 48.34
27. Seton Hall 25-12 46.92
28. Mississippi St. 21-14 45.60
29. San Diego St. 24-11 45.24
30. Nebraska 23-11 43.80
31. Wake Forest 21-14 43.47
32. Washington St. 25-10 42.38
33. Villanova 18-16 42.02
34. Northwestern 22-12 41.08
35. Florida Atlantic 25-9 40.84
36. New Mexico 25-10 40.71
37. Colorado St. 23-11 40.20
38. South Carolina 26-8 40.10
39. Texas 21-13 39.23
40. Indiana St. 31-7 38.70
41. Dayton 25-8 37.96
42. Oregon 24-12 37.79
43. Pittsburgh 22-11 37.76
44. Cincinnati 22-15 37.56
45. Texas Tech 23-11 37.44
46. Nevada 25-8 37.00
47. TCU 21-13 35.60
48. Ohio St. 22-14 35.33
49. Providence 21-14 35.10
50. Utah 22-15 34.43
51. Saint Mary's 25-8 33.33
52. Drake 27-7 33.10
53. James Madison 31-4 32.08
54. Virginia Tech 19-15 31.68
55. Oklahoma 20-12 31.24
56. Boston College 20-16 29.43
57. Xavier 16-18 29.33
58. Grand Canyon 29-5 29.00
59. VCU 24-14 28.87
60. Virginia 23-11 26.98
61. Iowa 19-15 26.89
62. Utah St. 26-7 26.87
63. UNLV 19-13 26.68
64. Butler 17-15 26.43
65. Washington 17-15 26.19
66. Maryland 16-17 25.84
67. Boise St. 20-11 25.73
68. Syracuse 19-12 24.20
69. Georgia 20-17 24.12
70. USC 15-18 23.86
71. Appalachian St. 25-7 23.70
72. Memphis 22-10 23.59
73. Kansas St. 19-15 23.25
74. Duquesne 24-12 22.82
75. Florida St. 17-16 22.73
76. South Florida 25-8 22.64
77. Miami FL 15-17 22.61
78. UCF 17-16 22.33
79. Saint Joseph's 21-14 22.20
80. Mississippi 20-12 21.92
81. McNeese St. 26-4 21.91
82. Minnesota 19-15 21.69
83. San Francisco 22-11 21.07
84. Bradley 22-12 20.36
85. Richmond 23-10 20.27
86. UCLA 15-17 19.99
87. Massachusetts 20-11 19.90
88. UC Irvine 23-10 19.71
89. Penn St. 16-17 19.49
90. SMU 19-13 19.48
91. North Texas 17-15 19.41
92. Samford 27-6 18.86
93. Yale 21-10 18.83
94. UAB 22-12 18.36
95. Georgia Tech 14-18 18.29
96. Princeton 22-5 18.08
97. Indiana 19-14 18.02
98. LSU 17-16 17.94
99. Loyola Chicago 22-10 17.59
100. Stanford 14-18 17.35
101. Arkansas 16-17 17.15
102. Seattle 22-14 16.98
103. Oakland 24-12 16.80
104. George Mason 19-12 16.10
105. Santa Clara 19-13 16.01
106. St. Bonaventure 20-13 15.78
107. Rutgers 15-17 15.46
108. Louisiana Tech 19-10 15.35
109. High Point 25-9 15.17
110. Charleston 26-8 14.92
111. California 13-19 14.71
112. Northern Iowa 18-14 14.50
113. Cornell 20-8 14.22
114. Notre Dame 13-20 14.06
115. UNC Wilmington 18-10 13.86
116. Arizona St. 14-18 13.57
117. Vermont 26-7 13.55
118. Akron 22-11 13.18
119. Michigan 8-24 13.05
120. Hofstra 19-13 12.91
121. Charlotte 18-12 12.80
122. Oklahoma St. 12-20 12.75
123. Davidson 13-17 11.93
124. Drexel 19-12 11.83
125. Southern Illinois 18-13 11.43
126. Wichita St. 14-19 11.42
127. Arkansas St. 20-17 11.25
128. Toledo 20-12 11.20
129. Western Carolina 19-10 11.12
130. West Virginia 9-23 11.09
131. Missouri 8-24 10.81
132. Oregon St. 12-19 10.78
133. Belmont 19-13 10.61
134. UT Arlington 18-14 10.49
135. Tarleton St. 22-10 10.19
136. Missouri St. 17-16 9.89
137. Western Kentucky 19-12 9.82
138. Towson 19-14 9.42
139. Troy 17-12 9.40
140. Ohio 19-13 9.35
141. Liberty 15-14 9.32
142. UC San Diego 19-12 9.26
143. South Dakota St. 19-13 9.23
144. St. Thomas 17-13 9.16
145. Furman 15-15 9.05
146. Purdue Fort Wayne 21-13 9.03
147. Sam Houston St. 19-12 8.97
148. Youngstown St. 18-10 8.95
149. UNC Greensboro 19-11 8.92
150. Louisiana 17-14 8.79
151. UMass Lowell 19-10 8.76
152. Temple 15-20 8.71
153. Cleveland St. 20-15 8.70
154. Long Beach St. 19-15 8.55
155. Tulane 13-17 8.50
156. Chattanooga 19-12 8.33
157. Morehead St. 22-9 8.22
158. UNC Asheville 19-12 8.17
159. Murray St. 11-20 8.17
160. Longwood 18-14 8.16
161. Delaware 18-14 8.13
162. Stony Brook 19-15 8.12
163. Stephen F. Austin 16-15 8.09
164. Weber St. 17-12 8.03
165. Colgate 24-10 7.93
166. Illinois St. 14-17 7.89
167. Louisville 8-24 7.75
168. East Carolina 14-18 7.69
169. Georgetown 9-23 7.68
170. Wright St. 16-14 7.59
171. Bryant 18-13 7.55
172. Eastern Washington 19-11 7.46
173. Lipscomb 18-12 7.43
174. Fairfield 23-13 7.42
175. Vanderbilt 9-23 7.36
176. Monmouth 18-15 7.30
177. Montana 21-12 7.28
178. George Washington 14-17 7.16
179. UC Davis 18-13 7.15
180. Wyoming 13-17 7.13
181. Saint Louis 12-20 7.05
182. UTEP 15-16 6.92
183. Fordham 13-20 6.90
184. Northern Kentucky 16-15 6.87
185. Milwaukee 18-15 6.87
186. Abilene Christian 15-18 6.86
187. Brown 12-18 6.72
188. Utah Valley 14-16 6.68
189. Kent St. 15-17 6.55
190. East Tennessee St. 17-16 6.52
191. Tulsa 15-15 6.49
192. La Salle 15-17 6.49
193. Illinois Chicago 11-21 6.49
194. Texas St. 15-18 6.40
195. Hawaii 18-14 6.38
196. Gardner Webb 14-16 6.35
197. Winthrop 14-15 6.25
198. Cal Baptist 14-17 6.20
199. Texas A&M Corpus Chris 17-12 6.16
200. Rhode Island 11-20 6.13
201. Quinnipiac 23-10 6.10
202. Norfolk St. 20-11 6.06
203. Green Bay 16-14 5.93
204. UTSA 10-21 5.89
205. UC Riverside 14-18 5.84
206. Air Force 9-22 5.83
207. Montana St. 15-17 5.80
208. Loyola Marymount 11-19 5.79
209. Radford 14-17 5.79
210. Wofford 14-15 5.75
211. Little Rock 21-13 5.69
212. Cal St. Northridge 17-15 5.67
213. Stetson 19-13 5.65
214. Jacksonville St. 11-18 5.62
215. Bowling Green 18-14 5.59
216. Rice 10-21 5.47
217. Saint Peter's 18-14 5.42
218. Mercer 14-16 5.41
219. Northern Colorado 17-14 5.38
220. Fresno St. 11-21 5.37
221. Northeastern 12-20 5.33
222. Southern 15-14 5.30
223. Iona 16-17 5.25
224. Southern Miss 14-16 5.25
225. Maine 14-17 5.14
226. Evansville 16-18 5.04
227. New Hampshire 15-15 5.03
228. Florida Gulf Coast 11-18 5.01
229. Marist 18-13 4.92
230. Howard 16-17 4.85
231. North Dakota 15-14 4.80
232. San Jose St. 8-23 4.78
233. Merrimack 19-12 4.73
234. Penn 9-18 4.72
235. Georgia St. 12-17 4.67
236. Marshall 12-20 4.66
237. South Alabama 14-15 4.59
238. Georgia Southern 9-24 4.58
239. Southern Utah 8-21 4.57
240. Canisius 13-18 4.56
241. Lamar 17-14 4.53
242. Oral Roberts 9-19 4.52
243. Austin Peay 16-16 4.42
244. UC Santa Barbara 14-15 4.42
245. Nicholls St. 17-14 4.39
246. North Alabama 13-17 4.28
247. Chicago St. 10-19 4.28
248. Eastern Kentucky 14-14 4.27
249. UMKC 13-16 4.25
250. Idaho St. 12-20 4.24
251. Harvard 13-13 4.22
252. Denver 13-17 4.21
253. Mount St. Mary's 13-19 4.18
254. Cal St. Bakersfield 11-19 4.12
255. Niagara 15-16 4.11
256. Portland St. 14-15 4.06
257. Central Michigan 17-14 3.99
258. The Citadel 8-21 3.97
259. Bucknell 14-19 3.97
260. North Florida 13-16 3.97
261. Southeastern Louisiana 12-17 3.90
262. FIU 10-22 3.85
263. Cal St. Fullerton 12-18 3.84
264. Tennessee Martin 17-11 3.83
265. Middle Tennessee 12-19 3.81
266. Rider 14-17 3.78
267. Nebraska Omaha 11-18 3.76
268. San Diego 16-15 3.70
269. Presbyterian 11-19 3.70
270. Western Michigan 11-20 3.70
271. Ball St. 13-16 3.69
272. Albany 12-19 3.63
273. UMBC 10-21 3.59
274. Miami OH 13-17 3.56
275. Central Connecticut 18-11 3.53
276. Kennesaw St. 12-16 3.51
277. Queens 12-19 3.45
278. Northern Illinois 9-20 3.43
279. North Dakota St. 12-17 3.40
280. Grambling St. 18-15 3.39
281. North Carolina Central 14-13 3.34
282. Lehigh 12-18 3.26
283. New Mexico St. 9-19 3.25
284. Texas Southern 15-17 3.23
285. Pepperdine 11-20 3.19
286. Jacksonville 13-17 3.16
287. USC Upstate 7-20 3.16
288. Binghamton 13-15 3.14
289. Columbia 10-14 3.14
290. Utah Tech 10-20 3.10
291. American 15-16 3.05
292. Sacramento St. 8-24 3.02
293. Wagner 15-16 3.00
294. Jackson St. 15-17 2.96
295. Delaware St. 13-19 2.96
296. Western Illinois 17-12 2.95
297. Campbell 11-18 2.95
298. Robert Morris 8-22 2.92
299. SIU Edwardsville 14-16 2.91
300. Northern Arizona 14-19 2.90
301. DePaul 3-29 2.80
302. Boston University 15-17 2.79
303. Charleston Southern 7-20 2.77
304. Valparaiso 6-25 2.77
305. Old Dominion 6-25 2.66
306. Sacred Heart 14-16 2.64
307. William & Mary 8-23 2.63
308. Portland 10-21 2.58
309. Louisiana Monroe 9-19 2.57
310. Bethune Cookman 15-17 2.57
311. Tennessee St. 14-15 2.50
312. Eastern Michigan 11-18 2.42
313. South Carolina St. 12-18 2.36
314. Eastern Illinois 10-18 2.34
315. Alabama St. 10-19 2.33
316. Elon 11-19 2.30
317. Bellarmine 5-23 2.28
318. Alcorn St. 13-18 2.25
319. Coastal Carolina 7-22 2.14
320. Idaho 9-21 2.12
321. Navy 12-18 2.11
322. South Dakota 9-20 2.09
323. Le Moyne 12-17 1.97
324. Army 8-22 1.96
325. Lafayette 10-21 1.95
326. Texas A&M Commerce 10-20 1.91
327. Hampton 6-24 1.81
328. Central Arkansas 7-23 1.73
329. Pacific 4-26 1.72
330. Southern Indiana 5-24 1.71
331. UT Rio Grande Valley 4-25 1.70
332. Detroit Mercy 1-31 1.70
333. Cal Poly 3-28 1.68
334. Alabama A&M 12-23 1.65
335. NJIT 6-21 1.65
336. New Orleans 6-23 1.64
337. Loyola MD 6-25 1.62
338. Manhattan 6-23 1.59
339. Prairie View A&M 8-21 1.57
340. Buffalo 3-27 1.57
341. Dartmouth 4-21 1.53
342. Tennessee Tech 7-21 1.53
343. Fairleigh Dickinson 13-17 1.47
344. Morgan St. 8-20 1.44
345. Northwestern St. 7-23 1.42
346. Incarnate Word 6-23 1.40
347. Holy Cross 9-23 1.30
348. North Carolina A&T 7-25 1.29
349. LIU 7-22 1.25
350. VMI 1-28 1.16
351. Siena 4-28 1.14
352. Stonehill 3-27 1.10
353. Arkansas Pine Bluff 9-18 1.09
354. Florida A&M 5-22 1.02
355. Maryland Eastern Shore 5-20 1.02
356. Saint Francis 6-22 0.91
357. IUPUI 3-26 0.88
358. Houston Christian 4-23 0.79
359. Lindenwood 6-22 0.77
360. Southeast Missouri St. 5-22 0.76
361. Coppin St. 2-27 0.68
362. Mississippi Valley St. 1-30 0.32
