College Basketball Markov Chain ranking for games through January 16, 2022.
This is a Markov Chain rating inspired by the LRMC rating system. In our implementation, we count the number of times the "ball" stays with the same team over thousands of random game "bounces." A random opponent is chosen from a team's schedule, and if they "win" the ball stays with them, otherwise it goes to the other team. Our implementation uses the final game score to calculate the likelihood a team would win the same game again based on a normal distribution (overtime games are 50/50). The rating is the total number of times a team has "possession" in the Markov chain, relative to all other Div-I teams.
The games data file used for this rating is from Ken Pomeroy's site.
Principles for this rating
Score margin: Used
Winning/Losing: Not used
Home court: Used
Date played: Not used
Rating is the relative number of "wins" based on Markov chain state
Home court advantage: set to 3 points
# Team record Rating
1. Auburn 16-1 76.24
2. Baylor 15-2 64.10
3. Gonzaga 14-2 63.50
4. Arizona 14-1 51.56
5. Duke 14-2 49.59
6. Kansas 14-2 49.36
7. Kentucky 14-3 48.31
8. Houston 15-2 40.92
9. Iowa St. 14-3 40.15
10. Villanova 13-4 38.66
11. LSU 15-2 38.17
12. Texas Tech 13-4 38.02
13. Purdue 14-2 34.92
14. Alabama 11-6 33.98
15. Illinois 13-3 29.80
16. Texas 13-4 28.00
17. Wisconsin 14-2 27.09
18. Oklahoma 12-5 24.56
19. Providence 14-2 23.67
20. Connecticut 11-4 22.75
21. Tennessee 11-5 22.11
22. Xavier 13-3 22.03
23. Iowa 13-4 21.67
24. Indiana 12-4 21.62
25. Michigan St. 14-3 21.61
26. Ohio St. 11-4 21.14
27. BYU 13-4 19.40
28. Memphis 9-7 18.57
29. San Francisco 14-3 18.36
30. Davidson 13-2 18.30
31. Arkansas 12-5 18.27
32. Murray St. 11-2 18.00
33. USC 14-2 17.55
34. Seton Hall 10-5 17.43
35. UCLA 11-2 16.68
36. Iona 14-3 16.58
37. Marquette 12-6 16.58
38. UAB 13-4 16.41
39. Colorado St. 12-1 16.14
40. Oklahoma St. 9-7 16.05
41. Loyola Chicago 12-2 15.75
42. North Carolina 12-4 15.70
43. Cincinnati 12-5 15.62
44. Creighton 10-5 14.80
45. Miami FL 13-4 14.69
46. Kansas St. 9-7 14.62
47. Virginia Tech 9-7 14.55
48. Saint Mary's 12-4 14.46
49. Boise St. 11-4 14.44
50. Florida 10-6 14.42
51. Texas A&M 14-2 14.09
52. Dayton 11-6 13.90
53. West Virginia 13-3 13.76
54. Wake Forest 14-4 13.71
55. Mississippi St. 12-4 13.41
56. VCU 10-5 12.52
57. Saint Louis 10-5 12.41
58. Northwestern 8-6 12.31
59. SMU 13-4 12.22
60. Hofstra 8-7 12.09
61. San Diego St. 10-3 12.00
62. Penn St. 8-7 11.97
63. Wichita St. 9-7 11.95
64. Oregon 10-6 11.77
65. Chattanooga 12-4 11.70
66. Notre Dame 9-6 11.53
67. Belmont 12-4 11.41
68. Utah St. 9-7 11.33
69. TCU 12-2 11.00
70. New Mexico St. 12-2 10.91
71. Wyoming 11-2 10.74
72. St. John's 10-5 10.72
73. Towson 12-5 10.68
74. UCF 10-5 10.68
75. Monmouth 10-5 10.52
76. Mississippi 9-7 10.49
77. Richmond 10-7 10.33
78. Maryland 9-8 10.28
79. Clemson 10-7 10.25
80. Virginia 10-7 10.17
81. Oakland 12-4 10.01
82. Missouri St. 12-6 9.92
83. Rhode Island 10-4 9.81
84. N.C. State 9-9 9.81
85. St. Bonaventure 10-3 9.80
86. South Dakota St. 13-4 9.62
87. Vermont 10-4 9.61
88. Fresno St. 11-4 9.58
89. Vanderbilt 10-6 9.38
90. Louisville 10-7 9.09
91. North Texas 9-4 9.08
92. Santa Clara 11-6 8.93
93. Washington St. 10-7 8.89
94. Grand Canyon 12-2 8.84
95. Furman 11-7 8.67
96. Rutgers 10-6 8.67
97. Minnesota 10-5 8.65
98. Toledo 12-4 8.59
99. Syracuse 8-9 8.48
100. Stanford 10-5 8.40
101. Louisiana Tech 12-3 8.23
102. Ohio 12-2 8.06
103. DePaul 10-6 7.80
104. George Mason 7-6 7.67
105. Florida St. 10-5 7.54
106. Drake 10-5 7.33
107. Michigan 7-7 7.25
108. Northern Iowa 8-7 7.05
109. Liberty 10-6 6.98
110. Jacksonville St. 9-6 6.97
111. Tulane 7-8 6.95
112. Navy 11-5 6.58
113. South Alabama 8-5 6.57
114. Wofford 9-7 6.51
115. Bradley 7-10 6.48
116. Tulsa 6-9 6.44
117. Colorado 12-4 6.39
118. California 9-9 6.22
119. East Carolina 11-5 6.20
120. Temple 10-6 6.16
121. Buffalo 7-6 6.15
122. Princeton 11-3 6.14
123. Middle Tennessee 9-6 6.09
124. Oral Roberts 9-6 6.04
125. Western Kentucky 8-7 5.91
126. Boston College 7-8 5.90
127. Delaware 10-6 5.74
128. Stephen F. Austin 6-6 5.71
129. Pittsburgh 7-10 5.70
130. Marist 8-8 5.67
131. South Carolina 9-6 5.61
132. Utah 8-9 5.53
133. Utah Valley 10-6 5.46
134. Arizona St. 5-9 5.30
135. Southern Illinois 8-7 5.30
136. UC Irvine 5-5 5.27
137. East Tennessee St. 9-8 5.26
138. Washington 8-7 5.25
139. Colgate 5-10 5.22
140. Charleston 9-5 5.09
141. Wagner 8-2 5.05
142. Tarleton St. 5-11 4.97
143. VMI 7-8 4.92
144. Massachusetts 7-9 4.86
145. Illinois St. 7-8 4.84
146. Georgia Tech 7-9 4.73
147. Nevada 7-6 4.68
148. Brown 7-10 4.64
149. Nicholls St. 8-8 4.59
150. Akron 7-5 4.59
151. Oregon St. 3-13 4.56
152. Nebraska 6-12 4.55
153. Fairfield 7-9 4.46
154. South Florida 6-10 4.43
155. Valparaiso 6-10 4.42
156. Niagara 6-8 4.41
157. Abilene Christian 7-6 4.39
158. Saint Joseph's 7-7 4.28
159. Montana St. 10-5 4.25
160. UNC Greensboro 9-7 4.19
161. Cleveland St. 9-4 4.17
162. Georgia 5-12 4.16
163. Boston University 10-8 4.15
164. Old Dominion 6-9 4.15
165. Texas Southern 5-9 4.12
166. New Mexico 6-10 4.07
167. Campbell 6-6 4.06
168. James Madison 9-3 4.04
169. Drexel 6-6 4.04
170. Fordham 9-6 4.01
171. Rice 9-6 3.97
172. Southern 7-8 3.96
173. Appalachian St. 7-9 3.95
174. Miami OH 5-7 3.80
175. Charlotte 9-5 3.77
176. Troy 10-5 3.71
177. Missouri 6-9 3.71
178. Duquesne 6-9 3.63
179. Arkansas St. 8-4 3.63
180. UNLV 8-7 3.62
181. Butler 7-7 3.57
182. UC Riverside 8-5 3.57
183. Western Illinois 10-6 3.52
184. Coastal Carolina 5-8 3.51
185. Penn 6-11 3.51
186. Kent St. 6-8 3.48
187. Northeastern 6-10 3.46
188. Loyola Marymount 6-7 3.45
189. Harvard 6-5 3.44
190. San Diego 8-7 3.37
191. Yale 6-8 3.35
192. Morehead St. 9-5 3.31
193. Loyola MD 10-6 3.31
194. Florida Gulf Coast 9-7 3.24
195. Mercer 8-7 3.22
196. Weber St. 9-5 3.16
197. Sam Houston St. 7-9 3.09
198. UTEP 7-8 3.06
199. Cal St. Fullerton 7-5 3.04
200. Seattle 10-4 3.04
201. Jackson St. 3-12 3.02
202. Air Force 8-6 2.99
203. UT Arlington 6-9 2.99
204. Cornell 7-6 2.97
205. Stony Brook 8-6 2.94
206. Winthrop 8-6 2.94
207. Southern Utah 8-5 2.90
208. Florida Atlantic 5-8 2.85
209. Wright St. 8-8 2.85
210. Saint Peter's 4-6 2.84
211. Jacksonville 8-4 2.83
212. Marshall 5-10 2.83
213. Kennesaw St. 4-8 2.82
214. Gardner Webb 7-8 2.82
215. Louisiana 6-7 2.81
216. Texas A&M Corpus Chris 10-4 2.77
217. Hawaii 5-5 2.77
218. Indiana St. 5-8 2.77
219. UNC Asheville 7-7 2.74
220. New Hampshire 4-5 2.72
221. Dartmouth 3-10 2.72
222. St. Thomas 5-8 2.68
223. Georgia Southern 6-7 2.66
224. Samford 8-6 2.64
225. Northern Colorado 6-7 2.64
226. SIU Edwardsville 5-8 2.59
227. UC Davis 6-4 2.59
228. Portland 9-7 2.55
229. FIU 8-7 2.53
230. Bowling Green 6-8 2.53
231. Detroit Mercy 5-9 2.52
232. Lipscomb 5-11 2.52
233. Montana 8-6 2.52
234. Bryant 6-8 2.52
235. North Dakota St. 9-6 2.50
236. Quinnipiac 8-6 2.43
237. Eastern Kentucky 4-10 2.43
238. Manhattan 8-4 2.40
239. Georgetown 6-8 2.38
240. Texas St. 8-4 2.27
241. UMass Lowell 6-7 2.26
242. Tennessee Tech 2-11 2.25
243. North Carolina A&T 6-10 2.24
244. Norfolk St. 8-4 2.22
245. Louisiana Monroe 7-8 2.22
246. Eastern Michigan 6-8 2.21
247. Howard 4-7 2.21
248. High Point 4-9 2.19
249. Alabama St. 4-13 2.18
250. Eastern Washington 7-7 2.16
251. Pepperdine 5-13 2.16
252. Youngstown St. 8-8 2.15
253. UT Rio Grande Valley 4-11 2.14
254. Western Carolina 7-10 2.13
255. Siena 6-6 2.12
256. Canisius 4-11 2.04
257. The Citadel 5-8 2.03
258. Presbyterian 6-10 2.02
259. UC San Diego 6-8 2.02
260. NJIT 7-7 2.01
261. Coppin St. 3-14 2.00
262. Albany 6-10 1.99
263. Purdue Fort Wayne 7-8 1.95
264. UNC Wilmington 6-5 1.94
265. Army 8-8 1.93
266. Cal St. Bakersfield 3-6 1.92
267. Bellarmine 5-8 1.91
268. UC Santa Barbara 5-7 1.88
269. Cal Baptist 8-5 1.87
270. Illinois Chicago 6-8 1.86
271. Denver 5-13 1.81
272. UMBC 5-8 1.80
273. Long Beach St. 5-9 1.79
274. Ball St. 6-9 1.77
275. Alcorn St. 5-11 1.75
276. South Dakota 8-7 1.70
277. Lehigh 5-12 1.68
278. St. Francis NY 3-12 1.68
279. La Salle 5-8 1.68
280. Southeastern Louisiana 5-9 1.66
281. Maryland Eastern Shore 2-6 1.64
282. LIU 5-9 1.64
283. Idaho 1-12 1.63
284. St. Francis PA 4-11 1.61
285. Longwood 6-5 1.60
286. Austin Peay 2-9 1.59
287. New Orleans 5-8 1.57
288. Sacred Heart 5-10 1.55
289. Northern Kentucky 4-9 1.53
290. Georgia St. 3-7 1.53
291. Elon 2-13 1.52
292. Rider 4-10 1.49
293. Northern Illinois 5-8 1.47
294. Merrimack 7-9 1.47
295. Evansville 3-11 1.44
296. Bucknell 3-15 1.44
297. Stetson 3-10 1.42
298. San Jose St. 7-7 1.40
299. North Alabama 5-9 1.38
300. South Carolina St. 6-10 1.37
301. George Washington 4-10 1.36
302. UMKC 5-7 1.36
303. Cal Poly 3-10 1.34
304. Southeast Missouri St. 4-11 1.32
305. Robert Morris 2-14 1.29
306. Lafayette 3-11 1.28
307. Radford 3-11 1.28
308. North Florida 1-13 1.19
309. Tennessee Martin 5-11 1.18
310. Tennessee St. 4-10 1.16
311. Mount St. Mary's 4-10 1.11
312. USC Upstate 4-10 1.09
313. Dixie St. 6-10 1.08
314. Milwaukee 5-12 1.08
315. UTSA 4-10 1.05
316. Binghamton 4-7 1.04
317. William & Mary 2-13 1.04
318. Central Connecticut 4-13 1.02
319. Sacramento St. 3-7 1.02
320. Chicago St. 6-13 1.01
321. Hartford 2-10 1.01
322. North Carolina Central 4-9 1.01
323. Prairie View A&M 1-12 1.00
324. Southern Miss 4-11 0.98
325. Green Bay 2-13 0.98
326. Little Rock 3-8 0.98
327. Florida A&M 2-11 0.98
328. Alabama A&M 4-11 0.98
329. Bethune Cookman 3-12 0.96
330. Pacific 3-11 0.95
331. Nebraska Omaha 2-16 0.95
332. Cal St. Northridge 4-10 0.95
333. McNeese St. 4-11 0.94
334. Grambling St. 3-12 0.86
335. Central Arkansas 4-11 0.85
336. American 5-10 0.84
337. Columbia 3-11 0.81
338. Northern Arizona 3-9 0.79
339. Northwestern St. 1-14 0.77
340. Lamar 0-14 0.73
341. Arkansas Pine Bluff 1-15 0.71
342. Fairleigh Dickinson 1-11 0.68
343. Hampton 2-9 0.63
344. Portland St. 2-8 0.60
345. North Dakota 2-14 0.58
346. Holy Cross 1-13 0.56
347. Central Michigan 2-12 0.55
348. Charleston Southern 1-13 0.50
349. Incarnate Word 2-13 0.50
350. Morgan St. 2-8 0.48
351. Western Michigan 2-11 0.46
352. Idaho St. 2-11 0.40
353. Mississippi Valley St. 1-14 0.33
354. Maine 0-11 0.33
355. IUPUI 0-14 0.32
356. Eastern Illinois 0-13 0.31
357. Houston Baptist 0-10 0.30
358. Delaware St. 0-11 0.13
359. Bethesda 1-9 0.05
360. Carver 0-18 0.00
