College Basketball Markov Chain ranking for the complete* 2019-2020 season.
This is a Markov Chain rating inspired by the LRMC rating system. In our implementation, we count the number of times the "ball" stays with the same team over thousands of random game "bounces." A random opponent is chosen from a team's schedule, and if they "win" the ball stays with them, otherwise it goes to the other team. Our implementation uses the final game score to calculate the likelihood a team would win the same game again based on a normal distribution (overtime games are 50/50). The rating is the total number of times a team has "possession" in the Markov chain, relative to all other Div-I teams.
The games data file used for this rating is from Ken Pomeroy's site.
Principles for this rating
Score margin: Used
Winning/Losing: Not used
Home court: Used
Date played: Not used
Rating is the relative number of "wins" based on Markov chain state
Home court advantage: set to 3.00 points
# Team record Rating
1. Kansas 27-3 117.88
2. Dayton 29-2 91.98
3. Gonzaga 31-2 88.64
4. San Diego St. 29-2 86.22
5. Baylor 26-4 85.78
6. Duke 25-6 81.47
7. Michigan St. 22-9 71.52
8. Maryland 24-7 64.13
9. Creighton 23-7 59.10
10. Florida St. 26-5 58.36
11. West Virginia 21-10 58.35
12. Louisville 24-7 58.32
13. Ohio St. 21-10 54.08
14. Arizona 21-11 53.61
15. Oregon 24-7 51.35
16. Houston 23-8 51.06
17. Seton Hall 21-9 50.75
18. Texas Tech 18-13 50.68
19. BYU 23-8 50.48
20. Iowa 20-11 50.23
21. Villanova 24-7 49.90
22. Michigan 19-12 49.54
23. Wisconsin 21-10 48.67
24. Kentucky 25-6 47.75
25. Butler 22-9 46.71
26. Penn St. 21-10 46.13
27. Rutgers 19-11 44.88
28. Purdue 16-15 42.87
29. Marquette 18-12 39.53
30. Colorado 21-11 39.10
31. Minnesota 15-16 39.09
32. Illinois 20-10 38.62
33. Indiana 20-12 38.35
34. Oklahoma 19-12 37.36
35. Providence 19-12 37.06
36. Stanford 20-12 36.74
37. Florida 19-12 35.42
38. Auburn 25-6 35.29
39. LSU 21-10 35.00
40. N.C. State 20-12 34.13
41. Virginia 23-7 34.09
42. Arkansas 20-12 33.73
43. Wichita St. 23-8 33.65
44. Utah St. 24-8 33.38
45. Saint Mary's 25-8 33.35
46. USC 22-9 32.35
47. Xavier 19-13 31.77
48. Washington 15-17 30.25
49. East Tennessee St. 27-4 30.00
50. Mississippi St. 20-11 29.30
51. Cincinnati 20-10 28.99
52. Memphis 21-10 28.78
53. Connecticut 19-12 28.64
54. Arizona St. 20-11 28.59
55. Texas 19-12 28.56
56. Richmond 24-7 28.53
57. Alabama 16-15 27.87
58. Saint Louis 22-8 27.52
59. Notre Dame 20-12 27.47
60. Northern Iowa 23-6 26.79
61. St. John's 17-15 26.50
62. Tennessee 17-14 26.10
63. North Carolina 14-19 25.56
64. Oklahoma St. 18-14 24.88
65. Georgia Tech 16-14 24.69
66. UCLA 18-12 24.29
67. South Carolina 18-13 23.86
68. Oregon St. 18-13 23.62
69. Rhode Island 21-9 23.44
70. Georgetown 15-17 23.37
71. Syracuse 18-14 23.33
72. Clemson 16-15 22.57
73. Stephen F. Austin 25-3 22.49
74. DePaul 15-16 22.12
75. Yale 21-7 22.12
76. SMU 19-11 21.19
77. TCU 15-16 21.09
78. Tulsa 21-10 20.91
79. Vermont 25-7 20.67
80. VCU 18-13 20.58
81. UNLV 17-15 20.56
82. Kansas St. 11-21 20.29
83. San Francisco 21-12 20.07
84. Iowa St. 12-20 20.06
85. UNC Greensboro 21-9 19.77
86. Mississippi 15-17 19.45
87. Furman 22-7 19.45
88. Pittsburgh 16-17 19.44
89. Nevada 19-12 19.06
90. Liberty 28-4 18.98
91. Missouri 15-16 18.96
92. Duquesne 21-9 18.57
93. Louisiana Tech 20-8 18.46
94. Georgia 15-16 18.41
95. Texas St. 19-11 18.10
96. Hofstra 25-8 17.92
97. Akron 22-7 17.76
98. Virginia Tech 16-16 17.31
99. Utah 16-15 17.30
100. Colorado St. 19-12 17.07
101. Northern Colorado 20-9 17.05
102. Loyola Chicago 20-11 16.83
103. Wake Forest 13-18 16.75
104. Bradley 22-11 16.56
105. North Texas 18-11 16.49
106. Davidson 16-14 16.27
107. Washington St. 16-16 16.04
108. Temple 14-17 15.91
109. Boise St. 19-12 15.77
110. Harvard 20-8 15.75
111. Texas A&M 16-14 15.54
112. South Florida 14-17 15.16
113. UC Irvine 19-11 14.91
114. Belmont 25-7 14.53
115. Indiana St. 17-12 14.41
116. Northwestern 8-23 14.35
117. Western Kentucky 19-10 14.26
118. Winthrop 22-10 14.10
119. Miami FL 15-16 14.09
120. Georgia St. 17-13 14.06
121. Pepperdine 16-16 14.01
122. Colgate 24-9 13.98
123. Missouri St. 16-17 13.79
124. UT Arlington 12-18 13.66
125. St. Bonaventure 18-12 13.63
126. New Mexico St. 23-6 13.48
127. UCF 16-14 13.42
128. North Dakota St. 23-8 13.10
129. Valparaiso 18-16 12.98
130. Penn 15-11 12.65
131. New Mexico 18-14 12.53
132. Ball St. 17-13 12.51
133. Pacific 21-10 12.40
134. Georgia Southern 18-13 12.36
135. Little Rock 20-10 12.24
136. Nebraska 7-25 12.22
137. South Dakota St. 20-10 12.22
138. Vanderbilt 11-21 11.83
139. California 14-18 11.79
140. Wofford 17-16 11.51
141. Buffalo 19-12 11.49
142. Wright St. 23-7 11.37
143. Northeastern 17-16 11.01
144. Siena 20-10 10.97
145. Charleston 16-14 10.96
146. Kent St. 18-12 10.94
147. Eastern Washington 21-8 10.90
148. Fresno St. 10-19 10.74
149. Drake 18-14 10.68
150. Massachusetts 14-17 10.59
151. South Alabama 17-11 10.55
152. Marshall 16-15 10.53
153. Delaware 21-11 10.44
154. Murray St. 21-9 10.39
155. Western Carolina 17-12 10.38
156. Toledo 16-15 10.38
157. Radford 19-11 10.23
158. Chattanooga 18-13 10.22
159. Northern Kentucky 21-9 10.14
160. Boston College 13-19 10.05
161. Oral Roberts 13-14 9.96
162. Nicholls St. 17-10 9.81
163. Stony Brook 19-13 9.77
164. Montana 17-12 9.72
165. St. Francis PA 21-10 9.69
166. Tulane 12-18 9.68
167. William & Mary 20-11 9.67
168. Charlotte 16-13 9.55
169. Bowling Green 19-10 9.53
170. George Mason 17-15 9.41
171. Towson 17-13 9.41
172. Boston University 20-13 9.34
173. Coastal Carolina 14-17 9.29
174. Appalachian St. 16-15 9.28
175. Portland St. 16-14 9.26
176. Old Dominion 13-19 9.23
177. Santa Clara 18-13 9.21
178. UAB 17-13 9.02
179. Southern Utah 15-15 8.94
180. North Florida 19-12 8.82
181. FIU 16-13 8.76
182. Southern Illinois 15-16 8.67
183. UC Santa Barbara 19-10 8.47
184. Princeton 13-13 8.27
185. Northern Illinois 17-13 8.21
186. La Salle 15-15 8.19
187. East Carolina 11-20 7.84
188. Ohio 15-15 7.82
189. Abilene Christian 16-11 7.79
190. Saint Peter's 18-12 7.77
191. South Dakota 17-12 7.76
192. Arkansas St. 14-16 7.75
193. Sacramento St. 14-14 7.61
194. Rider 18-12 7.60
195. Air Force 11-20 7.60
196. Mercer 15-15 7.53
197. UTEP 14-15 7.48
198. Robert Morris 19-14 7.44
199. Austin Peay 19-12 7.38
200. Florida Atlantic 14-15 7.22
201. Bryant 14-17 7.03
202. Rice 13-17 6.99
203. Gardner Webb 14-16 6.93
204. Illinois Chicago 17-17 6.85
205. UTSA 10-19 6.77
206. Illinois St. 9-21 6.73
207. Monmouth 18-13 6.70
208. Lafayette 18-12 6.65
209. Sacred Heart 19-13 6.56
210. Louisiana 13-19 6.53
211. Eastern Michigan 12-16 6.52
212. UC Riverside 14-15 6.45
213. Brown 14-12 6.44
214. Hawaii 16-13 6.41
215. Loyola Marymount 10-21 6.33
216. Sam Houston St. 14-13 6.27
217. Northern Arizona 14-14 6.26
218. George Washington 12-20 6.19
219. Montana St. 14-15 6.17
220. Drexel 13-19 6.13
221. Miami OH 11-19 5.97
222. Merrimack 19-11 5.96
223. UC Davis 12-18 5.86
224. Dartmouth 11-17 5.85
225. Saint Joseph's 6-26 5.85
226. Canisius 12-20 5.84
227. Fordham 9-22 5.72
228. Prairie View A&M 17-13 5.70
229. Nebraska Omaha 15-16 5.69
230. American 16-14 5.59
231. San Diego 8-23 5.57
232. Navy 13-16 5.53
233. Bucknell 14-20 5.50
234. San Jose St. 6-24 5.48
235. Green Bay 15-16 5.48
236. Iona 12-17 5.45
237. Cal Baptist 17-10 5.44
238. Evansville 8-23 5.42
239. Wyoming 8-24 5.40
240. Oakland 13-19 5.32
241. Hartford 16-15 5.29
242. Central Michigan 11-18 5.21
243. Youngstown St. 16-15 5.07
244. Cal St. Northridge 13-17 4.97
245. Tennessee St. 16-15 4.95
246. Lamar 14-15 4.92
247. Troy 7-22 4.89
248. VMI 6-24 4.87
249. Lipscomb 14-16 4.85
250. Utah Valley 8-19 4.84
251. North Dakota 12-18 4.77
252. Western Michigan 11-19 4.73
253. Texas Southern 15-16 4.71
254. Quinnipiac 15-15 4.69
255. Stetson 14-17 4.65
256. LIU 14-18 4.64
257. Manhattan 13-18 4.63
258. UMBC 12-17 4.56
259. UMKC 13-14 4.52
260. Louisiana Monroe 7-20 4.48
261. Campbell 13-16 4.46
262. Cal St. Fullerton 9-20 4.41
263. Fairfield 12-20 4.33
264. Eastern Illinois 15-15 4.33
265. Elon 10-21 4.32
266. McNeese St. 11-17 4.21
267. Texas A&M Corpus Chris 12-18 4.13
268. Southern Miss 6-22 4.10
269. Long Beach St. 9-21 4.07
270. Loyola MD 14-17 4.00
271. Central Arkansas 9-21 3.95
272. Seattle 12-15 3.95
273. New Hampshire 13-15 3.94
274. Jacksonville 12-18 3.94
275. Army 14-15 3.92
276. Mount St. Mary's 10-21 3.89
277. Purdue Fort Wayne 11-19 3.88
278. UNC Asheville 13-16 3.87
279. Albany 13-18 3.80
280. Hampton 12-19 3.80
281. Weber St. 9-20 3.73
282. Niagara 12-20 3.73
283. Portland 7-23 3.71
284. Milwaukee 10-19 3.68
285. UT Rio Grande Valley 10-16 3.65
286. UMass Lowell 12-19 3.53
287. Cornell 5-20 3.52
288. Bethune Cookman 13-14 3.52
289. St. Francis NY 12-18 3.48
290. Cal St. Bakersfield 9-19 3.48
291. Idaho St. 6-22 3.48
292. Cal Poly 5-23 3.47
293. Northwestern St. 12-15 3.43
294. Norfolk St. 13-14 3.37
295. Charleston Southern 12-18 3.32
296. North Carolina A&T 16-15 3.31
297. Columbia 5-24 3.31
298. Fairleigh Dickinson 10-19 3.29
299. Grand Canyon 13-16 3.29
300. Lehigh 9-21 3.27
301. James Madison 8-21 3.26
302. Jacksonville St. 11-19 3.26
303. Eastern Kentucky 14-17 3.25
304. UNC Wilmington 7-22 3.23
305. Detroit 8-23 3.22
306. NJIT 8-21 3.06
307. Marist 7-23 3.02
308. North Alabama 11-17 2.98
309. Southern 15-15 2.96
310. Coppin St. 11-20 2.94
311. Denver 6-24 2.91
312. North Carolina Central 15-13 2.86
313. Middle Tennessee 5-23 2.83
314. Idaho 6-24 2.80
315. Longwood 12-18 2.79
316. Florida A&M 12-15 2.74
317. Presbyterian 8-22 2.65
318. Cleveland St. 10-21 2.63
319. Maine 8-22 2.57
320. Florida Gulf Coast 8-22 2.49
321. USC Upstate 11-20 2.46
322. Jackson St. 13-17 2.43
323. Morehead St. 11-19 2.36
324. Southeastern Louisiana 5-23 2.25
325. Tennessee Tech 7-22 2.20
326. Morgan St. 12-16 2.18
327. IUPUI 5-25 2.17
328. Grambling St. 13-15 2.16
329. New Orleans 5-21 2.08
330. Samford 7-23 2.06
331. Western Illinois 3-21 1.95
332. SIU Edwardsville 6-23 1.94
333. High Point 7-23 1.83
334. Wagner 7-21 1.82
335. Alcorn St. 11-15 1.78
336. Binghamton 8-19 1.76
337. Holy Cross 3-28 1.68
338. The Citadel 3-24 1.66
339. Southeast Missouri St. 5-24 1.64
340. Alabama St. 8-24 1.63
341. Tennessee Martin 7-20 1.52
342. Houston Baptist 4-25 1.45
343. South Carolina St. 9-18 1.44
344. Alabama A&M 8-22 1.30
345. Incarnate Word 6-22 1.20
346. Central Connecticut 3-27 1.12
347. Maryland Eastern Shore 4-27 0.99
348. Howard 3-28 0.90
349. Arkansas Pine Bluff 3-26 0.84
350. Delaware St. 5-25 0.82
351. Kennesaw St. 1-28 0.77
352. Mississippi Valley St. 3-27 0.47
353. Chicago St. 1-25 0.30
