College Basketball Markov Chain ranking for all games of 2021-2022 season.
This is a Markov Chain rating inspired by the LRMC rating system. In our implementation, we count the number of times the "ball" stays with the same team over thousands of random game "bounces." A random opponent is chosen from a team's schedule, and if they "win" the ball stays with them, otherwise it goes to the other team. Our implementation uses the final game score to calculate the likelihood a team would win the same game again based on a normal distribution (overtime games are 50/50). The rating is the total number of times a team has "possession" in the Markov chain, relative to all other Div-I teams.
The games data file used for this rating is from Ken Pomeroy's site.
Principles for this rating
Score margin: Used
Winning/Losing: Not used
Home court: Used
Date played: Not used
Rating is the relative number of "wins" based on Markov chain state
Home court advantage: set to 3 points
# Team record Rating
1. Gonzaga 28-4 116.69
2. Kansas 34-6 115.75
3. Houston 32-6 103.67
4. Duke 32-7 96.62
5. Texas Tech 27-10 96.15
6. Baylor 27-7 93.55
7. Auburn 28-6 92.81
8. Kentucky 26-8 88.48
9. Villanova 30-8 82.39
10. Arizona 33-4 82.37
11. Tennessee 27-8 79.79
12. Purdue 29-8 71.05
13. Iowa 26-10 65.08
14. UCLA 27-8 61.73
15. Arkansas 28-9 61.50
16. North Carolina 29-10 60.13
17. Memphis 22-11 52.70
18. Texas 22-12 51.89
19. LSU 22-12 48.14
20. Texas A&M 26-13 47.41
21. Virginia Tech 23-13 46.64
22. Illinois 23-10 46.10
23. Alabama 19-14 45.66
24. Oklahoma 19-16 45.66
25. TCU 21-13 45.60
26. Miami FL 26-11 45.58
27. Connecticut 23-10 44.96
28. Iowa St. 22-13 44.17
29. Providence 27-6 43.48
30. Wisconsin 25-8 43.48
31. Saint Mary's 25-8 39.75
32. Wake Forest 25-10 39.08
33. Michigan St. 23-13 37.66
34. Michigan 19-15 37.09
35. Indiana 21-14 36.92
36. Davidson 26-7 36.53
37. Dayton 24-11 36.49
38. Ohio St. 20-12 36.37
39. Notre Dame 23-11 35.52
40. Xavier 23-13 35.12
41. Creighton 23-12 34.25
42. Oklahoma St. 15-15 33.61
43. Mississippi St. 18-16 33.54
44. Murray St. 28-3 33.35
45. SMU 24-9 33.09
46. Marquette 19-13 32.49
47. San Francisco 23-10 32.19
48. San Diego St. 23-9 32.11
49. VCU 22-10 31.50
50. Seton Hall 20-11 31.31
51. Boise St. 26-8 31.12
52. Virginia 21-14 30.09
53. USC 26-8 29.90
54. Florida 20-14 29.54
55. Vanderbilt 19-17 29.27
56. Kansas St. 14-17 28.64
57. Richmond 24-13 28.60
58. UAB 25-8 28.59
59. Loyola Chicago 24-8 28.18
60. St. John's 17-15 28.08
61. Rutgers 18-14 27.61
62. Colorado St. 24-6 27.13
63. Vermont 27-6 26.45
64. St. Bonaventure 23-10 26.29
65. Iona 25-8 26.10
66. Washington St. 22-15 25.82
67. New Mexico St. 24-7 25.70
68. West Virginia 16-17 25.51
69. Clemson 17-16 24.59
70. Saint Louis 22-12 24.57
71. BYU 22-11 24.24
72. Syracuse 16-17 23.61
73. Chattanooga 25-8 23.58
74. Maryland 15-17 23.22
75. Towson 25-9 23.15
76. Oregon 19-15 23.15
77. Penn St. 14-17 22.25
78. Mississippi 13-19 21.58
79. Saint Peter's 21-12 21.21
80. North Texas 23-7 21.11
81. Utah St. 17-16 20.93
82. Santa Clara 21-12 20.52
83. South Dakota St. 28-5 20.38
84. Missouri St. 22-11 20.19
85. Colorado 21-12 19.88
86. Fresno St. 22-13 19.61
87. Wichita St. 15-13 19.58
88. Wyoming 24-9 19.57
89. Cincinnati 17-15 19.48
90. Northwestern 14-16 19.15
91. Middle Tennessee 24-11 18.56
92. Drake 23-11 18.54
93. Furman 21-12 18.34
94. Hofstra 19-11 18.33
95. UCF 18-12 17.55
96. DePaul 15-16 17.37
97. Belmont 24-8 17.37
98. Toledo 25-8 16.36
99. South Carolina 17-13 16.24
100. Monmouth 21-13 15.93
101. Northern Iowa 19-12 15.83
102. Tulane 14-15 15.74
103. Florida St. 17-14 15.58
104. Boston College 13-20 15.53
105. Colgate 22-12 15.41
106. Louisville 13-19 15.16
107. Arizona St. 14-17 15.08
108. George Mason 14-16 15.06
109. Minnesota 13-17 14.13
110. Butler 12-19 13.97
111. Stanford 16-16 13.80
112. Grand Canyon 21-8 13.77
113. Louisiana Tech 21-10 13.74
114. Temple 17-12 13.70
115. Akron 22-10 13.64
116. N.C. State 11-21 13.53
117. UNLV 17-14 13.36
118. UNC Wilmington 25-9 13.31
119. Bradley 16-14 13.14
120. Missouri 11-21 13.01
121. Rhode Island 14-16 12.70
122. Charleston 17-15 12.68
123. Princeton 21-7 12.60
124. Ohio 24-10 12.58
125. Delaware 21-13 12.46
126. Stephen F. Austin 18-10 12.32
127. Abilene Christian 21-11 12.28
128. Nebraska 10-22 11.76
129. Washington 17-15 11.70
130. Wofford 17-13 11.65
131. Western Kentucky 17-13 11.27
132. Buffalo 17-11 11.21
133. Tulsa 11-20 11.13
134. Kent St. 21-11 11.02
135. Liberty 20-11 10.93
136. Pittsburgh 11-21 10.90
137. Morehead St. 20-11 10.68
138. Jacksonville St. 20-11 10.66
139. Oakland 18-12 10.50
140. Nevada 12-18 10.41
141. Southern Illinois 15-15 10.40
142. Montana St. 25-8 10.13
143. Georgia Tech 11-20 9.93
144. Drexel 14-14 9.88
145. Wagner 20-6 9.87
146. Saint Joseph's 11-19 9.81
147. Florida Atlantic 16-15 9.77
148. South Alabama 17-12 9.70
149. Wright St. 21-14 9.62
150. California 12-20 9.60
151. Massachusetts 15-17 9.60
152. Niagara 13-16 9.58
153. VMI 13-16 9.41
154. Navy 20-11 9.30
155. Utah 11-20 9.26
156. East Carolina 15-15 9.24
157. Utah Valley 18-12 9.14
158. Fordham 16-16 8.96
159. Sam Houston St. 16-14 8.94
160. UC Irvine 13-10 8.88
161. Cleveland St. 18-11 8.84
162. Yale 18-12 8.78
163. UNC Greensboro 16-15 8.77
164. East Tennessee St. 13-17 8.67
165. Georgia 6-26 8.60
166. Coastal Carolina 15-14 8.49
167. Rider 13-19 8.49
168. New Mexico 11-19 8.47
169. UTEP 18-14 8.44
170. Old Dominion 12-19 8.42
171. Cal St. Fullerton 19-11 8.31
172. North Dakota St. 21-10 8.29
173. Seattle 21-9 8.25
174. Oral Roberts 16-12 8.22
175. Appalachian St. 16-15 8.19
176. Boston University 21-13 8.18
177. Georgetown 6-25 8.11
178. Fairfield 14-18 8.04
179. Winthrop 21-9 7.94
180. Marist 14-16 7.92
181. Texas St. 18-8 7.78
182. Siena 15-14 7.73
183. Jacksonville 18-10 7.62
184. Samford 18-11 7.61
185. Texas Southern 19-13 7.51
186. Nicholls St. 19-12 7.47
187. Mercer 14-17 7.43
188. Bryant 21-10 7.43
189. Long Beach St. 18-13 7.34
190. Southern Utah 21-12 7.25
191. Georgia St. 15-11 7.24
192. UC Santa Barbara 15-11 7.20
193. Troy 18-12 7.09
194. Longwood 22-7 7.06
195. Northern Kentucky 18-12 7.01
196. Southern 15-14 6.95
197. Illinois St. 11-20 6.87
198. James Madison 13-14 6.86
199. Weber St. 19-12 6.84
200. UC Riverside 14-12 6.80
201. Charlotte 17-14 6.80
202. Gardner Webb 16-13 6.72
203. Norfolk St. 21-7 6.67
204. Arkansas St. 15-11 6.61
205. Portland 17-15 6.61
206. La Salle 11-19 6.56
207. Cornell 13-11 6.48
208. Northern Colorado 20-15 6.45
209. Brown 11-16 6.37
210. Florida Gulf Coast 20-12 6.32
211. Hawaii 15-11 6.29
212. Campbell 13-13 6.24
213. Penn 12-16 6.24
214. Tarleton St. 11-17 6.23
215. Louisiana 14-15 6.19
216. South Florida 8-23 6.19
217. Valparaiso 12-18 6.14
218. Oregon St. 3-28 6.14
219. Canisius 10-21 6.07
220. Quinnipiac 13-17 6.06
221. UMass Lowell 12-16 6.05
222. Eastern Washington 16-16 5.93
223. UNC Asheville 14-15 5.83
224. Stony Brook 17-13 5.80
225. Northeastern 9-22 5.80
226. George Washington 12-18 5.77
227. Rice 14-17 5.74
228. Loyola Marymount 10-18 5.65
229. Dartmouth 8-16 5.60
230. Purdue Fort Wayne 19-12 5.52
231. Marshall 10-21 5.42
232. Bellarmine 16-13 5.30
233. Cal Baptist 15-16 5.28
234. Kennesaw St. 10-18 5.28
235. UT Arlington 9-18 5.27
236. Manhattan 14-15 5.19
237. New Hampshire 13-13 5.15
238. Harvard 10-13 5.14
239. Tennessee Tech 9-21 5.14
240. Elon 8-22 5.14
241. South Dakota 17-12 5.09
242. Youngstown St. 17-15 5.08
243. Detroit Mercy 13-16 5.07
244. High Point 11-18 4.97
245. Howard 13-13 4.97
246. Lipscomb 11-19 4.86
247. The Citadel 11-18 4.84
248. Texas A&M Corpus Chris 19-12 4.84
249. LIU 15-14 4.84
250. Loyola MD 13-16 4.83
251. Duquesne 6-24 4.81
252. UMKC 15-12 4.80
253. San Diego 13-16 4.77
254. Southeast Missouri St. 12-18 4.70
255. Air Force 11-18 4.65
256. Indiana St. 8-20 4.58
257. Montana 15-14 4.53
258. Western Illinois 14-16 4.52
259. UMBC 17-14 4.49
260. UC Davis 12-10 4.46
261. Miami OH 11-18 4.42
262. Presbyterian 10-20 4.35
263. Hartford 12-20 4.32
264. Lehigh 12-19 4.21
265. Jackson St. 11-19 4.17
266. SIU Edwardsville 9-21 4.14
267. Southeastern Louisiana 15-15 4.13
268. Alcorn St. 17-17 4.10
269. Ball St. 13-17 4.07
270. FIU 13-17 4.01
271. Albany 13-18 3.94
272. North Carolina A&T 10-20 3.86
273. Eastern Kentucky 9-18 3.79
274. Western Carolina 10-21 3.79
275. Georgia Southern 11-16 3.74
276. UC San Diego 11-16 3.71
277. Tennessee St. 12-18 3.69
278. Austin Peay 10-17 3.67
279. Mount St. Mary's 13-16 3.62
280. Illinois Chicago 13-16 3.60
281. Louisiana Monroe 10-18 3.59
282. North Florida 8-20 3.58
283. Cal St. Bakersfield 6-19 3.57
284. USC Upstate 13-17 3.55
285. Stetson 7-19 3.55
286. New Orleans 15-14 3.54
287. Army 13-16 3.51
288. Northern Illinois 9-21 3.50
289. Coppin St. 9-23 3.47
290. St. Francis NY 9-20 3.35
291. Bowling Green 11-18 3.29
292. Portland St. 12-17 3.29
293. Pepperdine 6-25 3.21
294. Binghamton 10-17 3.08
295. San Jose St. 7-23 3.06
296. Tennessee Martin 7-22 3.06
297. Merrimack 13-16 3.04
298. Lafayette 9-20 3.04
299. Idaho 7-22 2.99
300. Central Michigan 7-23 2.98
301. Alabama St. 9-21 2.98
302. North Carolina Central 13-15 2.97
303. Radford 9-18 2.96
304. Eastern Michigan 9-21 2.90
305. UT Rio Grande Valley 6-23 2.87
306. William & Mary 4-27 2.84
307. NJIT 10-18 2.83
308. Denver 10-20 2.82
309. South Carolina St. 13-16 2.79
310. Prairie View A&M 8-19 2.75
311. Robert Morris 7-24 2.74
312. Maryland Eastern Shore 8-16 2.72
313. Bucknell 9-23 2.72
314. Sacred Heart 9-20 2.63
315. Cal Poly 6-21 2.59
316. Pacific 6-22 2.57
317. Evansville 5-24 2.56
318. Grambling St. 10-20 2.53
319. American 10-22 2.48
320. Dixie St. 9-18 2.45
321. St. Thomas 7-20 2.45
322. Florida A&M 11-17 2.40
323. St. Francis PA 8-21 2.38
324. UTSA 7-21 2.33
325. Milwaukee 9-22 2.31
326. Sacramento St. 9-18 2.24
327. Alabama A&M 12-18 2.20
328. Morgan St. 9-15 2.18
329. McNeese St. 8-22 2.17
330. Central Arkansas 9-20 2.10
331. North Alabama 6-21 2.06
332. Chicago St. 7-25 2.04
333. Little Rock 6-19 2.01
334. Western Michigan 6-22 1.98
335. Central Connecticut 8-24 1.97
336. Southern Miss 5-26 1.97
337. Northern Arizona 7-23 1.96
338. Bethune Cookman 8-21 1.91
339. Hampton 7-19 1.90
340. Holy Cross 7-22 1.88
341. Green Bay 4-25 1.82
342. Cal St. Northridge 6-22 1.76
343. Northwestern St. 6-23 1.73
344. Nebraska Omaha 4-25 1.69
345. Idaho St. 5-23 1.53
346. North Dakota 4-25 1.48
347. Fairleigh Dickinson 4-22 1.47
348. Lamar 0-27 1.40
349. Houston Baptist 7-18 1.38
350. Maine 3-23 1.33
351. Charleston Southern 3-25 1.28
352. Columbia 3-22 1.23
353. Incarnate Word 5-24 1.20
354. Arkansas Pine Bluff 5-24 1.19
355. Delaware St. 0-25 0.93
356. Eastern Illinois 3-26 0.92
357. Mississippi Valley St. 2-26 0.88
358. IUPUI 1-26 0.79
359. Carver 0-18 0.00
