College Basketball Markov Chain ranking for D-I games through March 24
This is a Markov Chain rating inspired by the LRMC rating system. This implementation counts the number of times the "ball" stays with the same team over thousands of random game "bounces." A random opponent is chosen from a team's schedule, and if they "win" the ball stays with them, otherwise it goes to the other team. It uses the final game score to calculate the likelihood a team would win the same game again based on a normal distribution (overtime games are 50/50). The rating is the total number of times a team has "possession" in the Markov chain, relative to all other Div-I teams.
The games data file used for this rating is from Ken Pomeroy's site.
Principles for this rating
Score margin: Used
Winning/Losing: Not used
Home court: Used
Date played: Not used
Rating is the relative number of "wins" based on Markov chain state
Home court advantage: set to 3 points
# Team record Rating
1. Connecticut 28-8 107.84
2. UCLA 31-6 96.81
3. Houston 33-4 89.97
4. Alabama 31-6 88.72
5. Texas 29-8 88.66
6. Purdue 29-6 86.71
7. Gonzaga 30-5 80.75
8. Marquette 29-7 78.63
9. Kansas 28-8 72.19
10. Arizona 28-7 71.64
11. Creighton 24-12 66.73
12. Xavier 27-10 66.72
13. Tennessee 25-11 62.39
14. San Diego St. 29-6 58.16
15. Miami FL 28-7 57.67
16. Memphis 26-9 55.74
17. Florida Atlantic 32-3 54.34
18. Baylor 23-11 53.37
19. TCU 22-13 51.74
20. Saint Mary's 26-8 51.65
21. Maryland 22-13 51.03
22. Duke 27-9 50.30
23. Kansas St. 26-9 49.68
24. Indiana 23-12 49.37
25. Michigan St. 21-13 47.04
26. Penn St. 23-14 46.83
27. West Virginia 19-15 45.73
28. Iowa St. 19-14 45.25
29. Northwestern 22-12 44.43
30. Utah St. 25-9 43.34
31. Arkansas 22-14 43.10
32. Virginia 25-8 43.05
33. Michigan 18-16 42.18
34. Rutgers 19-15 40.71
35. Illinois 20-13 40.64
36. UAB 27-9 40.61
37. Auburn 21-13 40.55
38. Texas A&M 25-10 40.25
39. Kentucky 22-12 39.96
40. Boise St. 23-10 38.68
41. Providence 21-12 37.28
42. Iowa 19-14 37.25
43. USC 22-11 37.11
44. North Carolina 20-13 35.89
45. Wisconsin 20-14 35.61
46. Pittsburgh 24-12 35.45
47. Ohio St. 16-19 35.13
48. Oregon 21-15 35.01
49. North Texas 27-7 34.82
50. Oklahoma St. 20-16 34.82
51. N.C. State 23-11 34.03
52. Arizona St. 23-13 33.49
53. Oklahoma 15-17 32.31
54. Missouri 25-10 32.28
55. Villanova 17-17 32.05
56. Cincinnati 22-13 31.55
57. Clemson 23-11 31.15
58. VCU 27-8 29.96
59. Nevada 21-11 29.33
60. Mississippi St. 21-13 29.33
61. Utah Valley 25-8 29.12
62. Texas Tech 16-16 29.04
63. Colorado 18-17 28.82
64. Kent St. 26-7 28.78
65. New Mexico 21-12 28.57
66. Washington St. 17-17 27.42
67. Virginia Tech 19-15 26.64
68. UCF 19-15 26.42
69. St. John's 18-15 25.93
70. Charleston 30-4 25.50
71. Seton Hall 16-16 25.45
72. Vanderbilt 22-15 25.33
73. Liberty 24-9 24.31
74. Iona 27-8 24.08
75. Wake Forest 19-14 23.92
76. BYU 17-15 23.47
77. Drake 26-8 23.39
78. Marshall 23-8 23.17
79. Dayton 22-12 22.89
80. Florida 16-17 22.16
81. Toledo 26-8 21.88
82. Utah 17-15 21.10
83. Santa Clara 22-10 21.02
84. Stanford 14-19 20.76
85. Nebraska 16-16 20.27
86. Charlotte 22-14 19.98
87. Yale 19-9 19.68
88. Louisiana 23-8 19.49
89. UNLV 18-13 19.43
90. Temple 16-16 18.74
91. Sam Houston St. 22-8 18.69
92. Oral Roberts 26-5 18.63
93. Furman 25-8 18.47
94. Princeton 21-9 18.34
95. Hofstra 24-10 18.23
96. UC Irvine 21-12 17.89
97. San Jose St. 20-14 17.78
98. Saint Louis 20-12 17.49
99. Tulane 20-11 16.58
100. Washington 16-16 16.44
101. Syracuse 17-15 16.28
102. Wichita St. 17-15 16.27
103. San Francisco 19-14 16.23
104. South Alabama 17-16 16.10
105. Southern Utah 20-13 15.90
106. James Madison 19-11 15.89
107. Loyola Marymount 18-12 15.74
108. Southern Miss 22-8 15.68
109. Indiana St. 22-13 15.39
110. Colorado St. 14-18 15.17
111. UC Santa Barbara 25-8 15.14
112. Mississippi 12-21 15.00
113. Bradley 24-10 15.00
114. Middle Tennessee 17-14 14.76
115. Towson 21-12 14.71
116. Grand Canyon 21-12 14.37
117. Fordham 25-8 14.04
118. Akron 20-11 13.66
119. Kennesaw St. 23-9 13.26
120. UMass Lowell 24-8 13.14
121. Butler 14-18 12.98
122. Ohio 18-14 12.88
123. Notre Dame 11-21 12.77
124. Hawaii 21-11 12.70
125. Vermont 22-11 12.70
126. Eastern Washington 22-11 12.69
127. Duquesne 20-13 12.60
128. Montana St. 23-10 12.41
129. South Florida 14-18 12.35
130. Colgate 25-9 12.22
131. Boston College 16-17 12.17
132. Troy 17-13 12.08
133. Rice 16-16 11.87
134. DePaul 10-23 11.82
135. UNC Greensboro 18-12 11.80
136. Davidson 15-16 11.79
137. Youngstown St. 22-10 11.79
138. Penn 16-13 11.62
139. Richmond 15-18 11.56
140. Southern Illinois 22-10 11.52
141. George Mason 20-13 11.51
142. Western Kentucky 15-16 11.41
143. Radford 19-15 11.40
144. UC Riverside 21-12 11.34
145. Stephen F. Austin 16-13 11.26
146. Belmont 20-11 11.24
147. Quinnipiac 19-12 11.22
148. Samford 18-10 11.19
149. Louisiana Tech 12-18 11.15
150. LSU 14-19 10.94
151. Georgia 16-16 10.83
152. Fresno St. 10-20 10.70
153. Seattle 18-12 10.60
154. Georgia Tech 13-18 10.59
155. Air Force 14-18 10.53
156. Cornell 15-11 10.43
157. Ball St. 18-12 10.41
158. UNC Asheville 25-8 10.31
159. East Carolina 16-17 10.20
160. UTEP 12-18 10.03
161. Old Dominion 18-12 10.00
162. Siena 17-15 9.90
163. UNC Wilmington 22-10 9.90
164. Missouri St. 16-15 9.87
165. Cal St. Fullerton 18-13 9.83
166. Tarleton St. 13-17 9.80
167. St. Bonaventure 14-18 9.70
168. Eastern Kentucky 20-14 9.58
169. Cal Baptist 15-16 9.57
170. Lipscomb 17-13 9.44
171. South Carolina 11-21 9.38
172. Wyoming 8-22 9.15
173. Northern Kentucky 20-13 9.13
174. FIU 12-18 9.00
175. Northwestern St. 21-11 9.00
176. Florida Gulf Coast 16-15 8.81
177. Florida St. 9-23 8.76
178. Massachusetts 15-16 8.72
179. South Dakota St. 18-13 8.61
180. Utah Tech 11-19 8.57
181. Grambling St. 22-9 8.47
182. Minnesota 9-22 8.46
183. Cleveland St. 20-13 8.46
184. Texas St. 14-18 8.45
185. Fairleigh Dickinson 19-16 8.43
186. SMU 10-22 8.36
187. Long Beach St. 15-16 8.29
188. Montana 16-14 8.29
189. Chattanooga 15-17 8.24
190. Georgia Southern 14-16 8.23
191. Weber St. 16-15 8.21
192. Detroit Mercy 13-19 8.18
193. Portland 12-19 8.08
194. Saint Joseph's 16-17 8.08
195. Wofford 14-16 8.02
196. Rider 15-14 8.00
197. Longwood 18-12 7.99
198. Oregon St. 10-21 7.97
199. Brown 14-13 7.91
200. Harvard 12-14 7.88
201. Appalachian St. 13-16 7.88
202. UC Davis 16-14 7.86
203. North Carolina Central 14-12 7.62
204. Georgetown 7-25 7.60
205. Campbell 14-18 7.60
206. Pacific 14-17 7.50
207. La Salle 15-19 7.43
208. Stetson 15-14 7.35
209. Texas A&M Corpus Chris 20-11 7.34
210. George Washington 15-16 7.32
211. Queens 15-15 7.30
212. Wright St. 16-15 7.28
213. Gardner Webb 13-16 7.28
214. Northern Arizona 10-23 7.20
215. Pepperdine 7-22 7.13
216. Northern Iowa 13-18 7.09
217. Navy 17-13 6.97
218. Drexel 16-15 6.71
219. Bryant 15-13 6.61
220. St. Thomas 17-14 6.54
221. Murray St. 16-15 6.48
222. Milwaukee 19-12 6.25
223. Delaware 16-16 6.25
224. Buffalo 13-17 6.22
225. San Diego 9-20 6.12
226. SIU Edwardsville 16-14 6.07
227. Fairfield 12-18 6.05
228. Mercer 12-19 6.03
229. Howard 19-13 6.00
230. Loyola Chicago 10-21 6.00
231. Norfolk St. 18-11 5.98
232. Rhode Island 9-22 5.92
233. Alcorn St. 18-14 5.89
234. Sacramento St. 12-18 5.86
235. Morehead St. 18-12 5.81
236. Southeast Missouri St. 17-17 5.77
237. Western Carolina 15-16 5.73
238. New Mexico St. 6-15 5.70
239. Purdue Fort Wayne 15-15 5.68
240. California 3-29 5.66
241. Robert Morris 14-17 5.61
242. UT Arlington 8-21 5.54
243. Abilene Christian 9-17 5.42
244. Canisius 9-20 5.41
245. Niagara 15-15 5.38
246. Dartmouth 8-18 5.33
247. UMBC 17-14 5.33
248. East Tennessee St. 10-20 5.20
249. Northern Colorado 12-19 5.17
250. Northern Illinois 12-18 5.13
251. American 17-15 5.07
252. Lafayette 11-23 5.05
253. USC Upstate 14-16 5.01
254. Louisville 4-28 4.98
255. Jacksonville 10-16 4.94
256. Prairie View A&M 11-19 4.93
257. Idaho St. 9-21 4.85
258. North Dakota St. 14-17 4.84
259. Mount St. Mary's 12-20 4.83
260. Southern Indiana 13-17 4.79
261. Winthrop 13-17 4.70
262. North Florida 12-17 4.65
263. UTSA 8-22 4.59
264. Cal Poly 6-25 4.54
265. Army 15-16 4.53
266. Nicholls St. 12-15 4.50
267. Southeastern Louisiana 15-14 4.49
268. Southern 13-17 4.48
269. Marist 13-20 4.46
270. UC San Diego 8-20 4.42
271. Bellarmine 12-18 4.42
272. Portland St. 10-19 4.40
273. Jacksonville St. 10-18 4.39
274. Boston University 14-17 4.35
275. North Alabama 15-15 4.32
276. Manhattan 11-18 4.32
277. Illinois St. 11-21 4.28
278. UT Rio Grande Valley 11-17 4.22
279. Georgia St. 7-21 4.22
280. Tennessee Tech 13-17 4.21
281. Tennessee Martin 15-14 4.18
282. Maryland Eastern Shore 14-13 4.13
283. Eastern Michigan 7-23 4.13
284. Valparaiso 10-21 4.10
285. Oakland 12-19 4.10
286. Saint Peter's 13-18 4.08
287. Miami OH 9-20 4.07
288. UMKC 10-20 4.05
289. North Dakota 11-20 4.04
290. Maine 11-17 4.04
291. High Point 12-17 4.03
292. Texas Southern 12-21 3.94
293. Texas A&M Commerce 12-20 3.94
294. Arkansas St. 10-20 3.93
295. New Hampshire 13-15 3.91
296. Louisiana Monroe 8-21 3.71
297. Bucknell 11-20 3.69
298. Tennessee St. 14-14 3.68
299. Cal St. Bakersfield 9-22 3.68
300. Coastal Carolina 8-20 3.63
301. Jackson St. 14-19 3.55
302. Western Illinois 13-14 3.53
303. South Dakota 10-19 3.51
304. Bowling Green 9-20 3.49
305. Illinois Chicago 11-20 3.49
306. Morgan St. 11-16 3.48
307. Arkansas Pine Bluff 6-21 3.48
308. Western Michigan 5-23 3.46
309. Wagner 13-13 3.46
310. Chicago St. 7-20 3.43
311. Lehigh 14-14 3.40
312. Idaho 8-22 3.28
313. Northeastern 10-20 3.24
314. Charleston Southern 8-21 3.17
315. Eastern Illinois 7-22 3.16
316. Central Michigan 8-21 3.16
317. Alabama A&M 12-18 3.14
318. William & Mary 11-20 3.14
319. Sacred Heart 15-17 3.13
320. Binghamton 11-18 3.12
321. North Carolina A&T 10-19 3.11
322. Merrimack 16-16 3.08
323. The Citadel 9-22 3.07
324. Denver 13-17 2.99
325. Cal St. Northridge 5-25 2.98
326. Tulsa 5-25 2.98
327. Little Rock 8-21 2.86
328. Stony Brook 9-22 2.80
329. Stonehill 13-17 2.77
330. Nebraska Omaha 8-23 2.76
331. Loyola MD 11-20 2.61
332. NJIT 6-23 2.59
333. Austin Peay 6-22 2.58
334. Coppin St. 9-23 2.57
335. McNeese St. 10-23 2.57
336. Central Connecticut 10-22 2.56
337. Presbyterian 3-27 2.50
338. New Orleans 10-20 2.48
339. Central Arkansas 8-22 2.41
340. St. Francis PA 11-18 2.41
341. Albany 6-23 2.39
342. Elon 6-24 2.29
343. Incarnate Word 9-19 2.28
344. Holy Cross 8-22 2.24
345. VMI 4-25 2.15
346. Columbia 5-22 2.13
347. South Carolina St. 4-26 2.12
348. Lamar 6-22 1.95
349. Bethune Cookman 10-20 1.93
350. Evansville 5-27 1.88
351. Alabama St. 7-23 1.81
352. Hampton 7-24 1.81
353. Lindenwood 8-21 1.79
354. Monmouth 7-26 1.72
355. St. Francis NY 12-16 1.69
356. Houston Christian 7-22 1.66
357. Delaware St. 5-23 1.64
358. Mississippi Valley St. 5-27 1.45
359. IUPUI 3-27 1.37
360. Florida A&M 5-22 1.24
361. Green Bay 3-29 1.20
362. Hartford 2-23 0.67
363. LIU 1-26 0.53
