College Basketball Markov Chain ranking for games through February 25, 2021.
This is a Markov Chain rating inspired by the LRMC rating system. In our implementation, we count the number of times the "ball" stays with the same team over thousands of random game "bounces." A random opponent is chosen from a team's schedule, and if they "win" the ball stays with them, otherwise it goes to the other team. Our implementation uses the final game score to calculate the likelihood a team would win the same game again based on a normal distribution (overtime games are 50/50). The rating is the total number of times a team has "possession" in the Markov chain, relative to all other Div-I teams.
The games data file used for this rating is from Ken Pomeroy's site.
Principles for this rating
Score margin: Used
Winning/Losing: Not used
Home court: Used
Date played: Not used
Rating is the relative number of "wins" based on Markov chain state
Home court advantage: set to 2.00 points
# Team record Rating
1. Gonzaga 23-0 215.02
2. Baylor 18-0 119.21
3. Michigan 17-1 80.16
4. Houston 19-3 62.30
5. Iowa 17-7 54.65
6. Ohio St. 18-6 54.33
7. Illinois 17-6 46.69
8. West Virginia 16-6 43.56
9. Alabama 18-6 42.83
10. Creighton 17-5 41.16
11. Kansas 16-8 37.54
12. Villanova 15-3 35.89
13. Colorado 18-7 35.03
14. USC 19-5 33.17
15. Purdue 15-8 32.80
16. Arkansas 18-5 31.83
17. Wisconsin 16-8 31.70
18. Texas Tech 14-8 31.60
19. Texas 14-6 30.29
20. Florida St. 14-3 29.97
21. Oklahoma 14-6 28.37
22. Rutgers 13-9 27.68
23. Tennessee 16-6 27.60
24. Loyola Chicago 17-4 26.87
25. Indiana 12-11 25.80
26. Minnesota 13-11 24.61
27. Maryland 13-10 24.22
28. BYU 17-5 24.17
29. Oklahoma St. 15-6 23.99
30. VCU 17-5 23.06
31. Virginia 15-6 22.94
32. Clemson 14-5 22.86
33. Seton Hall 13-10 22.29
34. Penn St. 8-12 21.89
35. Toledo 18-6 21.68
36. Georgia Tech 12-8 21.63
37. LSU 14-7 21.53
38. Missouri 14-7 21.53
39. Arizona 16-8 21.04
40. San Diego St. 18-4 21.00
41. Michigan St. 13-9 20.97
42. Florida 12-6 20.67
43. Connecticut 11-6 20.30
44. St. Bonaventure 12-3 19.61
45. Wright St. 18-5 19.48
46. Oregon 15-5 19.47
47. North Carolina 14-8 19.40
48. UCLA 17-5 18.94
49. Memphis 13-6 18.89
50. Drake 21-2 18.80
51. St. John's 14-10 18.33
52. Boise St. 17-5 18.30
53. Stanford 14-10 17.33
54. Virginia Tech 14-5 16.72
55. Duke 11-8 16.45
56. Mississippi St. 13-11 16.41
57. Marshall 12-5 16.21
58. Marquette 11-12 16.11
59. Colgate 11-1 15.96
60. Providence 12-11 15.85
61. Mississippi 13-9 15.75
62. Louisville 12-5 15.49
63. Auburn 11-13 15.46
64. Kentucky 8-13 15.11
65. Saint Louis 11-5 14.67
66. Western Kentucky 15-5 14.61
67. Richmond 12-5 14.55
68. Rhode Island 10-13 14.10
69. Xavier 12-5 13.99
70. Georgia 13-9 13.38
71. Belmont 22-2 13.02
72. Wichita St. 11-4 13.00
73. Winthrop 20-1 12.87
74. Utah St. 13-7 12.86
75. Kent St. 13-6 12.85
76. Northwestern 6-14 12.79
77. Louisiana Tech 17-6 12.77
78. Davidson 10-7 12.71
79. SMU 11-4 12.30
80. Notre Dame 9-12 12.18
81. Dayton 12-8 12.18
82. Syracuse 13-7 11.45
83. N.C. State 11-9 11.17
84. Furman 13-7 11.11
85. UCF 8-11 10.97
86. UC Santa Barbara 16-3 10.95
87. Akron 12-5 10.91
88. Pittsburgh 9-9 10.87
89. Nevada 13-7 10.79
90. UNC Greensboro 17-8 10.70
91. Ohio 12-6 10.58
92. Utah 9-11 10.54
93. Saint Mary's 13-7 10.51
94. Abilene Christian 15-3 10.50
95. Colorado St. 13-4 10.48
96. Washington St. 14-11 10.45
97. Oregon St. 11-11 10.03
98. Cleveland St. 16-7 9.90
99. TCU 11-10 9.89
100. Tulsa 9-10 9.87
101. Liberty 16-5 9.76
102. Oakland 10-17 9.64
103. Buffalo 10-7 9.64
104. Bowling Green 12-9 9.47
105. Georgetown 7-11 9.39
106. Iowa St. 2-17 8.98
107. Missouri St. 13-5 8.63
108. Wofford 13-8 8.44
109. Arizona St. 9-11 8.43
110. Butler 8-13 8.13
111. UAB 16-5 8.10
112. South Dakota St. 12-6 7.82
113. North Texas 11-6 7.82
114. San Francisco 10-12 7.75
115. Pepperdine 9-11 7.66
116. Mercer 12-9 7.65
117. East Tennessee St. 10-10 7.41
118. UC Riverside 10-6 7.40
119. Bradley 9-14 7.37
120. Chattanooga 16-7 7.35
121. Indiana St. 12-8 7.32
122. Eastern Washington 11-6 7.31
123. Miami FL 7-14 7.15
124. East Carolina 7-8 7.13
125. South Carolina 5-12 7.09
126. Vanderbilt 6-13 7.01
127. Nebraska 4-17 6.96
128. Detroit 12-9 6.94
129. Army 9-7 6.89
130. North Dakota St. 12-10 6.88
131. Loyola Marymount 12-7 6.87
132. UC Irvine 11-8 6.66
133. Cincinnati 8-8 6.50
134. Eastern Kentucky 18-6 6.45
135. Cal St. Bakersfield 14-9 6.44
136. Hofstra 12-9 6.41
137. California 7-18 6.40
138. Grand Canyon 12-4 6.34
139. UMBC 14-5 6.32
140. Weber St. 12-5 6.29
141. Bryant 12-5 6.26
142. La Salle 8-14 6.19
143. Northern Kentucky 13-10 6.10
144. Ball St. 8-11 5.93
145. Tulane 9-10 5.86
146. Gardner Webb 11-14 5.69
147. Navy 9-2 5.67
148. Valparaiso 7-16 5.66
149. Massachusetts 7-5 5.64
150. VMI 9-11 5.55
151. Kansas St. 7-17 5.55
152. South Florida 7-9 5.51
153. Boston College 3-13 5.46
154. Jacksonville St. 15-8 5.43
155. Wake Forest 5-12 5.39
156. Duquesne 7-8 5.37
157. Saint Peter's 11-8 5.32
158. UNLV 9-12 5.29
159. Santa Clara 9-7 5.27
160. James Madison 10-5 5.26
161. Oral Roberts 8-10 5.21
162. Georgia St. 11-5 5.20
163. Morehead St. 17-7 5.19
164. DePaul 4-11 5.17
165. Temple 5-10 5.12
166. Vermont 10-4 4.97
167. George Mason 9-8 4.87
168. Pacific 7-8 4.69
169. Washington 5-19 4.63
170. Miami OH 10-9 4.51
171. Murray St. 11-11 4.45
172. Youngstown St. 11-11 4.38
173. Southern Utah 14-3 4.37
174. Holy Cross 5-11 4.35
175. Cal Baptist 9-8 4.31
176. Texas St. 15-6 4.29
177. Old Dominion 11-6 4.27
178. Charlotte 9-10 4.26
179. Austin Peay 13-11 4.26
180. Northern Iowa 5-15 4.14
181. South Dakota 11-9 4.09
182. UTEP 7-10 4.09
183. Milwaukee 9-11 3.99
184. Coastal Carolina 9-6 3.97
185. Green Bay 8-17 3.93
186. Norfolk St. 12-7 3.85
187. Little Rock 9-13 3.81
188. South Alabama 12-8 3.78
189. Siena 9-3 3.77
190. Drexel 8-7 3.76
191. Northeastern 9-8 3.74
192. UMass Lowell 8-11 3.73
193. Monmouth 10-7 3.72
194. Texas A&M 8-7 3.70
195. Montana 7-12 3.69
196. Rice 11-10 3.68
197. Evansville 8-14 3.67
198. Hartford 11-8 3.62
199. Wyoming 12-9 3.62
200. Mount St. Mary's 10-10 3.60
201. Morgan St. 9-5 3.56
202. UNC Asheville 10-9 3.52
203. Radford 12-11 3.46
204. Illinois St. 6-15 3.43
205. Hawaii 6-8 3.40
206. Illinois Chicago 9-13 3.39
207. Louisiana 13-7 3.38
208. Appalachian St. 9-10 3.36
209. Sam Houston St. 13-7 3.30
210. Nicholls St. 14-6 3.29
211. The Citadel 9-11 3.28
212. Southern Illinois 10-11 3.28
213. Stony Brook 8-13 3.26
214. Wagner 11-5 3.25
215. Iona 8-5 3.22
216. Longwood 11-14 3.15
217. Samford 4-12 3.09
218. Campbell 13-9 3.08
219. Boston University 5-9 3.07
220. Eastern Illinois 9-17 3.05
221. UT Arlington 8-12 3.04
222. Lipscomb 11-10 3.01
223. Saint Joseph's 3-14 3.01
224. Purdue Fort Wayne 8-14 2.98
225. George Washington 4-10 2.98
226. UMKC 7-10 2.96
227. Western Carolina 8-15 2.96
228. St. Francis PA 6-16 2.92
229. Niagara 8-10 2.88
230. UTSA 10-9 2.82
231. Fairleigh Dickinson 9-14 2.78
232. Southeast Missouri St. 10-15 2.70
233. Albany 6-8 2.68
234. UNC Wilmington 6-8 2.68
235. LIU 9-8 2.64
236. High Point 8-14 2.63
237. North Dakota 9-16 2.61
238. IUPUI 8-10 2.56
239. New Hampshire 9-8 2.54
240. Lafayette 7-5 2.51
241. Marist 10-8 2.47
242. Stephen F. Austin 11-3 2.46
243. St. Francis NY 9-9 2.43
244. Quinnipiac 8-9 2.39
245. Bellarmine 10-5 2.37
246. Georgia Southern 10-11 2.34
247. Northwestern St. 7-15 2.31
248. Stetson 9-11 2.30
249. FIU 6-15 2.29
250. Montana St. 7-7 2.26
251. Robert Morris 3-15 2.26
252. Delaware 6-7 2.25
253. Coppin St. 7-12 2.25
254. NJIT 7-11 2.22
255. Loyola MD 3-6 2.17
256. Troy 8-14 2.14
257. Southern Miss 6-14 2.13
258. Utah Valley 6-9 2.12
259. Louisiana Monroe 7-16 2.07
260. Cal St. Fullerton 5-7 2.04
261. Arkansas St. 7-10 2.01
262. Charleston 7-9 1.99
263. Manhattan 6-9 1.95
264. Portland St. 5-9 1.93
265. Prairie View A&M 10-4 1.91
266. Fairfield 6-15 1.91
267. Binghamton 4-13 1.90
268. Canisius 6-4 1.87
269. Florida A&M 6-9 1.83
270. Texas Southern 8-8 1.82
271. Western Michigan 3-14 1.82
272. Hampton 10-12 1.80
273. Sacred Heart 8-8 1.79
274. Cal St. Northridge 7-9 1.78
275. Towson 4-13 1.78
276. Northern Colorado 7-8 1.77
277. Merrimack 8-7 1.75
278. Rider 4-13 1.69
279. Fresno St. 8-9 1.68
280. Jacksonville 9-13 1.68
281. Central Michigan 4-13 1.67
282. Middle Tennessee 4-13 1.65
283. Bucknell 4-4 1.63
284. Air Force 5-17 1.59
285. Florida Atlantic 4-9 1.58
286. Tennessee Tech 4-22 1.58
287. Northern Illinois 2-14 1.53
288. UC Davis 5-6 1.53
289. William & Mary 6-9 1.50
290. USC Upstate 5-16 1.49
291. Presbyterian 7-14 1.47
292. SIU Edwardsville 8-15 1.46
293. Fordham 2-11 1.43
294. North Carolina A&T 9-10 1.42
295. Nebraska Omaha 3-19 1.40
296. San Diego 3-9 1.40
297. Lehigh 4-8 1.40
298. UC San Diego 5-8 1.38
299. New Mexico St. 3-6 1.35
300. Florida Gulf Coast 7-6 1.34
301. Tennessee St. 3-18 1.34
302. Sacramento St. 6-9 1.33
303. Elon 5-8 1.31
304. Seattle 5-8 1.30
305. New Mexico 5-14 1.29
306. Dixie St. 8-11 1.29
307. Western Illinois 6-12 1.25
308. North Florida 6-12 1.25
309. Idaho St. 8-8 1.21
310. Charleston Southern 3-18 1.20
311. Southeastern Louisiana 7-14 1.19
312. Central Connecticut 4-16 1.15
313. Eastern Michigan 1-11 1.11
314. UT Rio Grande Valley 6-4 1.09
315. Tarleton St. 2-9 1.06
316. Long Beach St. 5-7 0.99
317. Incarnate Word 6-10 0.98
318. Lamar 5-17 0.97
319. Northern Arizona 5-14 0.96
320. Grambling St. 8-10 0.94
321. San Jose St. 3-15 0.92
322. Kennesaw St. 2-18 0.90
323. New Orleans 5-13 0.88
324. Houston Baptist 3-15 0.86
325. North Carolina Central 4-6 0.84
326. North Alabama 7-10 0.78
327. Central Arkansas 2-17 0.77
328. Tennessee Martin 6-16 0.74
329. Portland 3-14 0.73
330. Denver 1-17 0.70
331. Texas A&M Corpus Chris 2-17 0.67
332. Idaho 0-19 0.62
333. McNeese St. 4-11 0.56
334. Cal Poly 3-15 0.56
335. Southern 7-8 0.55
336. Maine 2-7 0.53
337. Jackson St. 7-5 0.49
338. Alabama A&M 6-5 0.46
339. Delaware St. 0-13 0.45
340. Arkansas Pine Bluff 3-19 0.43
341. Alcorn St. 6-9 0.32
342. South Carolina St. 0-16 0.30
343. Alabama St. 4-10 0.23
344. Our Lady of the Lake 1-7 0.16
345. Mississippi Valley St. 1-19 0.05
346. Chicago St. 0-9 0.04
347. Bethesda 0-12 0.00
348. Saint Katherine 0-10 0.00
349. Carver 0-21 0.00
