College Basketball Markov Chain ranking for games through 12/04.
This is a Markov Chain rating inspired by the LRMC rating system. In our implementation, we count the number of times the "ball" stays with the same team over thousands of random game "bounces." A random opponent is chosen from a team's schedule, and if they "win" the ball stays with them, otherwise it goes to the other team. Our implementation uses the final game score to calculate the likelihood a team would win the same game again based on a normal distribution (overtime games are 50/50). The rating is the total number of times a team has "possession" in the Markov chain, relative to all other Div-I teams.
The games data file used for this rating is from Ken Pomeroy's site.
Principles for this rating
Score margin: Used
Winning/Losing: Not used
Home court: Used
Date played: Not used
Rating is the relative number of "wins" based on Markov chain state
Home court advantage: set to 4 points
# Team record Rating
1. Connecticut 9-0 80.91
2. Purdue 8-0 46.39
3. Maryland 8-0 39.74
4. Mississippi St. 8-0 29.78
5. Houston 8-0 26.07
6. Marquette 6-3 25.40
7. Illinois 6-2 23.41
8. Virginia 7-0 19.10
9. Texas 6-0 15.69
10. Kent St. 5-2 15.62
11. Saint Mary's 6-3 14.87
12. Utah 7-2 14.17
13. Tennessee 7-1 13.61
14. West Virginia 6-2 13.29
15. New Mexico 7-0 12.87
16. Creighton 6-3 12.86
17. Arizona 7-1 12.68
18. Alabama 7-1 12.66
19. UCLA 7-2 12.49
20. Oklahoma St. 5-3 12.38
21. Indiana 7-1 11.97
22. Memphis 6-2 11.93
23. Nevada 6-2 11.70
24. Rutgers 6-2 11.53
25. Arkansas 7-1 10.97
26. Utah St. 7-0 10.36
27. Arizona St. 8-1 10.28
28. Kansas 8-1 10.22
29. Xavier 6-3 10.06
30. North Carolina 5-4 9.90
31. Wisconsin 6-2 9.71
32. Duke 8-2 9.70
33. Auburn 8-0 9.63
34. Sam Houston St. 4-1 9.52
35. Oklahoma 6-2 9.33
36. Virginia Tech 8-1 9.25
37. Iowa St. 7-1 8.92
38. Miami FL 8-1 8.89
39. Marshall 7-1 8.44
40. UNLV 7-0 8.21
41. Florida Atlantic 6-1 8.18
42. Penn St. 6-2 8.03
43. St. John's 8-1 8.02
44. Mississippi 6-2 7.76
45. Washington 7-2 7.41
46. Baylor 6-2 7.40
47. Charleston 8-1 7.39
48. Saint Louis 6-2 7.35
49. Colorado 4-5 7.32
50. Ohio St. 6-2 7.21
51. San Diego St. 5-2 7.21
52. Nebraska 6-3 7.13
53. Missouri 9-0 7.05
54. Drake 7-1 6.99
55. Gonzaga 5-3 6.98
56. Iowa 6-1 6.93
57. N.C. State 7-2 6.87
58. Kansas St. 7-1 6.47
59. Boise St. 6-2 6.42
60. Yale 6-1 6.32
61. Southern Miss 5-1 6.15
62. Kentucky 6-2 6.06
63. UC Irvine 4-3 6.05
64. Pittsburgh 6-3 5.86
65. Towson 8-1 5.82
66. UAB 6-1 5.81
67. UCF 6-2 5.78
68. Clemson 7-2 5.78
69. Wake Forest 7-2 5.77
70. Northwestern 6-2 5.74
71. James Madison 5-2 5.48
72. Temple 5-4 5.35
73. TCU 6-1 5.32
74. Florida 6-3 5.14
75. UMass Lowell 6-1 5.04
76. Wichita St. 4-4 4.95
77. Charlotte 7-2 4.93
78. Texas Tech 5-2 4.83
79. LSU 7-1 4.71
80. Southern Illinois 5-3 4.68
81. Loyola Marymount 6-3 4.67
82. Michigan 5-3 4.51
83. Butler 6-3 4.42
84. Toledo 5-3 4.39
85. USC 6-3 4.38
86. Indiana St. 7-1 4.34
87. Oregon 4-5 4.24
88. Stanford 3-6 4.24
89. Massachusetts 6-1 4.22
90. Villanova 3-5 4.22
91. Samford 3-3 4.17
92. South Alabama 2-6 4.15
93. Richmond 3-5 4.08
94. Radford 4-3 4.07
95. Iona 4-2 4.03
96. Dayton 5-4 4.03
97. Cal Baptist 5-4 3.93
98. Portland 5-4 3.82
99. Michigan St. 5-4 3.80
100. VCU 5-3 3.79
101. Youngstown St. 5-3 3.78
102. Florida Gulf Coast 6-2 3.63
103. Notre Dame 6-2 3.62
104. Louisiana Tech 4-2 3.61
105. Washington St. 3-4 3.59
106. Hofstra 6-3 3.54
107. St. Bonaventure 5-3 3.53
108. Colorado St. 6-3 3.53
109. Seattle 4-1 3.41
110. San Francisco 6-2 3.40
111. Santa Clara 6-2 3.33
112. South Dakota St. 3-6 3.32
113. Tarleton St. 3-3 3.28
114. Princeton 5-2 3.27
115. Northwestern St. 6-2 3.19
116. Utah Tech 4-5 3.15
117. Quinnipiac 6-2 3.14
118. Florida St. 1-9 3.11
119. Vanderbilt 4-4 3.11
120. Buffalo 4-4 3.07
121. Pepperdine 4-2 3.06
122. North Carolina Central 2-4 3.05
123. Navy 5-3 3.05
124. Providence 6-3 3.02
125. Cincinnati 5-3 2.94
126. Seton Hall 4-4 2.91
127. East Carolina 6-3 2.88
128. Old Dominion 4-4 2.87
129. Grand Canyon 5-2 2.87
130. Furman 4-2 2.82
131. DePaul 5-3 2.76
132. Southern Utah 2-4 2.69
133. Troy 3-3 2.66
134. Gardner Webb 2-6 2.63
135. Cleveland St. 6-2 2.63
136. Fordham 8-1 2.62
137. Wofford 3-4 2.61
138. Oral Roberts 2-3 2.55
139. Syracuse 4-4 2.54
140. Akron 3-4 2.52
141. Liberty 4-3 2.46
142. High Point 5-1 2.43
143. George Mason 5-4 2.41
144. Middle Tennessee 4-3 2.41
145. Alcorn St. 3-6 2.40
146. Ohio 3-4 2.38
147. Minnesota 4-4 2.38
148. Bucknell 5-3 2.37
149. Louisiana 5-1 2.36
150. Georgia Tech 4-3 2.36
151. St. Thomas 5-3 2.33
152. Chattanooga 3-3 2.29
153. Fresno St. 1-5 2.28
154. Belmont 5-4 2.27
155. Duquesne 7-1 2.25
156. BYU 4-4 2.23
157. Coppin St. 4-6 2.23
158. Tulane 5-3 2.23
159. Hawaii 4-2 2.23
160. UNC Asheville 4-3 2.22
161. UC Davis 5-3 2.22
162. North Texas 4-2 2.21
163. Southern Indiana 2-5 2.21
164. Colgate 4-5 2.19
165. Davidson 5-3 2.19
166. Georgia 7-2 2.16
167. Penn 5-6 2.15
168. Siena 5-3 2.15
169. Detroit Mercy 3-5 2.14
170. Texas A&M Corpus Chris 3-4 2.14
171. Lipscomb 3-2 2.11
172. Western Kentucky 5-1 2.11
173. Murray St. 4-3 2.10
174. Queens 4-2 2.10
175. Bradley 5-3 2.09
176. Grambling St. 4-3 2.05
177. Utah Valley 3-4 2.05
178. South Florida 3-6 2.04
179. SIU Edwardsville 5-2 2.04
180. Niagara 3-4 2.03
181. Fairfield 3-6 2.01
182. Drexel 3-5 2.00
183. Bryant 4-3 1.96
184. Campbell 3-4 1.95
185. Texas A&M 5-3 1.94
186. Stetson 3-3 1.92
187. Oregon St. 3-5 1.91
188. Chicago St. 3-7 1.91
189. Texas St. 4-4 1.90
190. Montana St. 3-5 1.90
191. Southern 3-5 1.86
192. UC Riverside 4-3 1.81
193. Austin Peay 3-5 1.79
194. UMKC 3-6 1.77
195. Milwaukee 5-3 1.76
196. Stephen F. Austin 3-4 1.75
197. Idaho St. 1-7 1.74
198. Mount St. Mary's 3-5 1.74
199. Maine 3-4 1.73
200. Missouri St. 3-4 1.71
201. Southeast Missouri St. 3-4 1.70
202. UNC Wilmington 4-3 1.66
203. UC Santa Barbara 4-2 1.65
204. Harvard 5-3 1.64
205. San Diego 3-4 1.63
206. Boston College 5-4 1.62
207. Kennesaw St. 3-3 1.61
208. Mercer 3-5 1.61
209. Air Force 5-4 1.60
210. Illinois St. 3-6 1.59
211. William & Mary 3-5 1.59
212. Denver 7-1 1.55
213. Portland St. 3-4 1.55
214. New Mexico St. 2-2 1.55
215. Vermont 3-7 1.53
216. Arkansas Pine Bluff 1-7 1.52
217. Sacramento St. 2-5 1.51
218. George Washington 4-3 1.51
219. Texas A&M Commerce 3-5 1.50
220. Lafayette 1-8 1.50
221. Prairie View A&M 2-4 1.49
222. Tennessee Martin 3-5 1.48
223. Cornell 5-1 1.47
224. Brown 5-4 1.46
225. Pacific 3-6 1.44
226. La Salle 4-4 1.42
227. American 5-2 1.41
228. Appalachian St. 4-4 1.41
229. Wagner 3-3 1.41
230. Long Beach St. 3-4 1.36
231. UTEP 4-2 1.36
232. Ball St. 2-4 1.35
233. Valparaiso 3-6 1.29
234. Central Michigan 2-4 1.26
235. Morgan St. 1-6 1.24
236. Montana 2-5 1.24
237. Cal St. Fullerton 3-4 1.24
238. Wyoming 2-5 1.22
239. Cal Poly 3-3 1.21
240. North Dakota 4-5 1.20
241. Southeastern Louisiana 2-5 1.19
242. Longwood 3-4 1.18
243. UNC Greensboro 3-5 1.15
244. UT Arlington 1-5 1.15
245. California 0-9 1.13
246. Georgetown 4-5 1.09
247. SMU 3-5 1.06
248. Tennessee St. 3-4 1.06
249. Northern Kentucky 4-4 1.06
250. Nebraska Omaha 3-6 1.05
251. Purdue Fort Wayne 3-4 1.05
252. UMBC 4-4 1.05
253. North Florida 1-5 1.04
254. Rice 5-2 1.03
255. Army 2-5 1.03
256. Cal St. Bakersfield 2-4 1.03
257. Cal St. Northridge 0-5 1.01
258. UC San Diego 3-4 0.99
259. Boston University 4-4 0.96
260. The Citadel 4-4 0.96
261. Western Illinois 3-4 0.95
262. Illinois Chicago 4-4 0.94
263. Northern Iowa 2-4 0.94
264. Rider 2-4 0.93
265. Marist 4-4 0.93
266. Texas Southern 1-7 0.92
267. Rhode Island 2-6 0.92
268. Charleston Southern 1-5 0.92
269. Tulsa 2-5 0.92
270. Jacksonville St. 3-4 0.92
271. Wright St. 4-4 0.89
272. Northern Colorado 4-4 0.89
273. Western Carolina 3-5 0.89
274. Northern Arizona 1-7 0.87
275. Stonehill 3-6 0.87
276. San Jose St. 5-3 0.86
277. South Dakota 3-4 0.86
278. Georgia St. 3-4 0.85
279. Sacred Heart 4-4 0.84
280. Bowling Green 3-5 0.83
281. Fairleigh Dickinson 3-6 0.81
282. South Carolina 4-4 0.81
283. Delaware 3-4 0.79
284. Central Arkansas 3-4 0.78
285. Northeastern 2-6 0.77
286. Saint Peter's 3-4 0.77
287. Loyola Chicago 3-5 0.76
288. Dartmouth 2-5 0.75
289. Canisius 1-6 0.75
290. Robert Morris 1-6 0.75
291. Idaho 2-5 0.74
292. Howard 2-7 0.71
293. Arkansas St. 2-3 0.69
294. South Carolina St. 1-8 0.69
295. Bellarmine 1-6 0.69
296. Evansville 2-8 0.67
297. Eastern Kentucky 2-4 0.67
298. Loyola MD 3-5 0.66
299. Bethune Cookman 2-4 0.65
300. Incarnate Word 2-5 0.65
301. East Tennessee St. 2-5 0.64
302. Winthrop 2-5 0.64
303. UTSA 3-3 0.62
304. VMI 1-6 0.61
305. Eastern Washington 3-5 0.58
306. Albany 1-6 0.58
307. Jacksonville 1-2 0.58
308. FIU 3-4 0.57
309. Binghamton 2-5 0.57
310. Saint Joseph's 3-4 0.56
311. Central Connecticut 0-9 0.56
312. Manhattan 2-4 0.56
313. Tennessee Tech 1-6 0.55
314. Eastern Michigan 1-7 0.55
315. Jackson St. 1-6 0.55
316. Presbyterian 1-7 0.54
317. Weber St. 1-6 0.53
318. North Alabama 3-4 0.52
319. Norfolk St. 2-4 0.50
320. Coastal Carolina 2-3 0.50
321. UT Rio Grande Valley 3-4 0.49
322. North Dakota St. 0-8 0.48
323. North Carolina A&T 1-4 0.48
324. USC Upstate 2-4 0.48
325. Western Michigan 1-6 0.47
326. NJIT 1-7 0.47
327. Lamar 1-5 0.46
328. Elon 0-8 0.45
329. Maryland Eastern Shore 2-5 0.43
330. Green Bay 0-7 0.40
331. New Hampshire 1-5 0.39
332. Oakland 1-8 0.39
333. Lindenwood 2-6 0.38
334. Northern Illinois 2-5 0.38
335. Hampton 1-6 0.37
336. Abilene Christian 2-4 0.36
337. Nicholls St. 2-4 0.36
338. Columbia 2-7 0.35
339. Miami OH 2-5 0.35
340. Lehigh 3-4 0.34
341. Morehead St. 1-5 0.33
342. Little Rock 1-6 0.33
343. Stony Brook 0-6 0.31
344. McNeese St. 2-6 0.29
345. New Orleans 1-5 0.29
346. St. Francis PA 1-7 0.27
347. Mississippi Valley St. 1-9 0.27
348. Eastern Illinois 0-7 0.26
349. Delaware St. 0-7 0.26
350. Alabama A&M 0-5 0.25
351. Alabama St. 1-7 0.25
352. Georgia Southern 2-4 0.25
353. Merrimack 0-9 0.24
354. St. Francis NY 2-4 0.24
355. Holy Cross 1-6 0.24
356. Louisiana Monroe 1-6 0.21
357. Louisville 0-8 0.20
358. Monmouth 1-8 0.19
359. IUPUI 0-7 0.17
360. Houston Christian 1-7 0.14
361. LIU 0-6 0.11
362. Hartford 1-7 0.11
363. Florida A&M 0-6 0.06
