SportsRatings: College Basketball

Big East tournament: Villanova loses, Providence tops St. John's

Of all of the conference tournaments, the Big East tournament might be the most critical. First, they have a potential 1-seed in Villanova, and second, there were four teams on the bubble vying for inclusion in the Big Dance.

The first question might have been answered today as Villanova fell to Seton Hall, 64-63. The Pirates are just 16-16 now on the year, and the bad loss might cost the Wildcats the 1-seed. We had Villanova as the top 2-seed, but they were a near-consensus on the Bracket Matrix as a 1-seed, and with Kansas possibly being penalized for Joel Embiid's injury it was looking like a foregone conclusion...until the Seton Hall loss.

So who will get the final one seed if it's not Villanova? Florida, Arizona, and Wichita State look like 1-seed locks; Arizona won handily today over Utah, while Wichita State is already finished in the MVC and Florida can probably survive a first-round loss in the SEC. Kansas is our current 1-seed choice and the Jayhawks survived an overtime game this afternoon to beat Oklahoma State. But Embiid's status might be the difference in making KU a 2-seed, a move that would work out well geographically with the Shockers and Jayhawks as the top two in the Midwest region.

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	Str rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
1	1	Florida	SEC	29-2	18-0	2	5	12.5	100%
2	1	Arizona	Pac-12	28-3	15-3	1	2	16.0	100%
3	1	Wichita St.	MVC	33-0	18-0	5	15	7.5	100%	+1
4	1	Kansas	Big 12	23-8	14-4	3	3	17.0	100%
5	2	Villanova	Big East	28-3	16-2	4	8	11.5	100%
6	2	Syracuse	ACC	27-4	14-4	10	21	10.5	100%
7	2	Michigan	Big Ten	23-7	15-3	9	10	11.5	100%	+1
8	2	Virginia	ACC	25-6	16-2	12	14	6.5	100%	-1
9	3	Wisconsin	Big Ten	25-6	12-6	6	13	12.5	100%	-1
10	3	Duke	ACC	24-7	13-5	8	4	8.0	100%

Above: The Dance Chance before Thursday's action

Though the order differs between the Dance Chance and the Bracket Matrix consensus, the next five candidates are all from either the ACC or the Big Ten. If any of Michigan, Wisconsin, Syracuse, Virginia, or Duke can win their conference tournament, they might gain the last 1-seed. The ACC teams might have a slight edge as Villanova would have been the 1-seed in the East region.

The Bubble: Georgetown, St. John's eliminated?

Four Big East teams were vying for spots in the tournament and two might have been eliminated. One of them, Xavier, was considered "in" by the consensus but all four were outside according to the Dance Chance as of Sunday:

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	Str rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
49		California	Pac-12	19-12	10-8	55	58	1.5	49.4
50		Florida St.	ACC	18-12	9-9	59	38	0.5	47.2	-
51		Minnesota	Big Ten	18-12	8-10	51	43	0.5	47.0
52		Missouri	SEC	21-10	9-9	52	61	-4.0	46.0	-
53		Xavier	Big East	19-11	10-8	48	46	-1.0	42.1
54		Toledo	MAC	25-5	14-4	36	106	-2.5	41.5
55	12	Louisiana Tech	C-USA	24-6	13-3	70	31	-4.0	41.3
56		St. John's	Big East	20-11	10-8	57	41	-1.5	39.5
57		Utah	Pac-12	18-10	9-9	83	28	-0.5	39.2
58		Providence	Big East	20-11	10-8	54	56	-1.0	37.8
59	12	Stephen F. Austin	Southland	25-2	18-0	67	98	-2.0	34.9	+1
60		Green Bay	Horizon	21-6	14-2	63	65	-2.5	34.2	-
61		Clemson	ACC	19-11	10-8	77	57	-4.0	33.4
62		Georgetown	Big East	17-13	8-10	53	51	1.5	30.7

Georgetown was the lowest-ranked of all four and the Hoyas lost yesterday to DePaul, 60-56. They are looking like an NIT team unless the Selection Committee really loves the Big East's high Conference RPI.

St. John's and Providence were neck-and-neck prior to today's game, which may for all intents and purposes be an elimination. Providence prevailed 79-74 in Madison Square Garden, a double-whammy for the Red Storm's chances. The Friars aren't out of the woods yet but their chances got a lot better—especially since instead of facing Villanova next they get Seton Hall.

Meanwhile Xavier probably has to beat Marquette to avoid falling off the bubble themselves. As far as the Dance Chance is concerned, it's a must-win, and the Musketeers might have to beat the Creighton/DePaul winner, too.

2013 NCAA Tournament Schedule, Previews, Odds, Predictions, Results and Final Scores

2013 NCAA Tournament Schedule

Previews become available as they are written; results follow as available

NCAA Championship (April 8)

(1) Louisville vs. (4) Michigan    Louisville 82-76

Final Four (April 6)

(1) Louisville vs. (9) Wichita State     Louisville 72-68
(4) Syracuse vs. (4) Michigan        Michigan 61-56

Elite Eight (March 30-31)

Saturday, March 30

(2) Ohio State vs. (9) Wichita State    Wichita State 70-66
(3) Marquette vs. (4) Syracuse     Syracuse 55-39

Sunday, March 31

(1) Louisville vs. (2) Duke      Louisville 85, Duke 63
(3) Florida vs. (4) Michigan    Michigan 79, Florida 59

Sweet Sixteen (March 28-29)

(1) Louisville vs. (12) Oregon     Louisville 77-69
(2) Duke vs. (3) Michigan State    Duke 71-61

(2) Ohio State vs. (6) Arizona         Ohio State 73-70
(9) Wichita State vs. (13) La Salle   Wichita State 72-58

(1) Indiana vs. (4) Syracuse      Syracuse 61-50
(2) Miami vs. (3) Marquette      Marquette 71-61

(1) Kansas vs. (4) Michigan     Michigan 87-85 OT
(3) Florida vs. (15) FGCU    Florida 62-50

Round of 32 (March 23-24)

Midwest

(1) Louisville vs. (8) Colorado St.     Louisville 83-55
(2) Duke vs. (7) Creighton              Duke 66-50
(3) Michigan St. vs (6) Memphis    Michigan State 70-48
(4) St. Louis vs. (12) Oregon       Oregon 74-57

East

(1) Indiana vs. (9) Temple     Indiana 58-52
(2) Miami vs. (7) Illinois          Miami 63-59
(3) Marquette vs. (6) Butler     Marquette 74-72
(4) Syracuse vs. (12) California     Syracuse 66-60

West

(1) Gonzaga vs. (9) Wichita State     Wichita State 76-70
(2) Ohio State vs. (10) Iowa State     Ohio State 78-75
(6) Arizona vs. (14) Harvard           Arizona 74-51
(12) Mississippi vs. (13) La Salle     La Salle 76-74

South

(1) Kansas vs. (8) North Carolina     Kansas 70-58
(3) Florida vs. (11) Minnesota     Florida 78-64
(4) Michigan vs. (5) VCU        Michigan 78-53
(7) SDSU vs. (15) FGCU    Florida Gulf Coast 81-71

Round of 64 (March 21-22)

Midwest Region

(1) Louisville vs (16) North Carolina A&T     Louisville 79-48
(2) Duke vs. (15) Albany                           Duke 73-61
(3) Michigan State vs. (14) Valparaiso     Michigan State 65-54
(4) St. Louis vs (13) New Mexico State    St. Louis 64-44
(5) Oklahoma State vs. (12) Oregon     Oregon 68-55
(6) Memphis vs. (11) St. Mary's         Memphis 54-52
(7) Creighton vs. (10) Cincinnati     Creighton 67-63
(8) Colorado State vs. (9) Missouri     Colorado State 84-72

East Region

(1) Indiana vs. (16) James Madison     Indiana 83-62
(2) Miami vs. (15) Pacific                  Miami 78-49
(3) Marquette vs. (14) Davidson       Marquette 59-58
(4) Syracuse vs. (13) Montana       Syracuse 81-34
(5) UNLV vs. (12) California       California 64-61
(6) Butler vs. (11) Bucknell       Butler 68-56
(7) Illinois vs. (10) Colorado       Illinois 57-49
(8) N.C. State vs. (9) Temple      Temple 76-72

West Region

(1) Gonzaga vs. (16) Southern       Gonzaga 64-58
(2) Ohio State vs. (15) Iona            Ohio State 95-70
(3) New Mexico vs. (14) Harvard       Harvard 68-62
(4) Kansas State vs. (13) La Salle       La Salle 63-61
(5) Wisconsin vs. (12) Mississippi        Mississippi 57-46
(6) Arizona vs. (11) Belmont               Arizona 81-64
(7) Notre Dame vs. (10) Iowa State     Iowa State 76-58
(8) Pittsburgh vs. (9) Wichita State     Wichita State 73-55

South Region

(1) Kansas vs. (16) Western Kentucky              Kansas 64-57
(2) Georgetown vs. (15) Florida Gulf Coast     Florida Gulf Coast 78-68
(3) Florida vs. (14) Northwestern State         Florida 79-47
(4) Michigan vs. (13) South Dakota State      Michigan 71-56
(5) Virginia Commonwealth vs. (12) Akron   VCU 88-42
(6) UCLA vs. (11) Minnesota                       Minnesota 83-63
(7) San Diego State vs. (10) Oklahoma      San Diego State 70-55
(8) North Carolina vs. (9) Villanova         North Carolina 78-71

First Four (March 19-20)

Tuesday, March 19

(11) MTSU vs. (11) St. Mary's       St. Mary's 67-54
(16) N.C. A&T vs. (16) Liberty     N.C. A&T 73-72

Wednesday, March 20

(13) La Salle vs. (13) Boise State     La Salle 80-71
(16) LIU vs. (16) James Madison      James Madison 68-55

 

Bubble busted: St. Bonaventure beats Xavier, 67-56

As if the bubble teams needed another thing to worry about, St. Bonaventure defeated Xavier to win the Atlantic 10 tournament.

The Bonnies were in no way, shape, or form vying for an at-large bid. We gave them a token 0.1% in the latest Dance Chance, similar to conference mate La Salle, and Denver from the Sun Belt.

#	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	RealWins rank	T50 wins	SOS	Dance Chance	Proj Seed	Chg
84	Loyola MD	Metro Atl	24-8	13-5	77	83	1	211	0.1	14
85	La Salle	Atlantic 10	21-12	9-7	87	80	1	116	0.1
86	St. Bonaventure	Atlantic 10	19-11	10-6	79	84	0	117	0.1
87	Montana	Big Sky	23-6	15-1	73	125	1	203	0.1	15
88	Denver	Sun Belt	22-9	11-5	94	87	2	189	0.1
89	Long Island	Northeast	25-8	16-2	81	93	0	247	0.1	15

The area they were in was populated with other conference champs from the Metro Atlantic, Big Sky, and Northeast, from 14- to 15-seeds. The win will move St. Bonaventure up, so they'll be at least a 14-seed.

The team they beat, Xavier, was a pretty solid at-large selection this morning, and should remain "in" despite the loss.

#	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	RealWins rank	T50 wins	SOS	Dance Chance	Proj Seed	Chg
37	Kansas St.	Big 12	21-10	10-8	49	44	6	55	80.9	10
38	California	Pac-12	24-9	13-5	38	41	0	86	74.3	10
39	Xavier	Atlantic 10	21-11	10-6	37	32	4	37	74.1	10	+2
40	West Virginia	Big East	19-13	9-9	56	37	4	19	73.1	10
41	South Florida	Big East	19-13	12-6	53	50	2	28	71.2	11	-1

The Musketeers may fall to an 11-seed or even a play-in team, but they have little chance of missing a bid. Their résumé is pretty solid, from their RPI and SOS of 37 to their four top 50 RPI wins. They hold non-conference wins over Vanderbilt, Purdue, and Cincinnati.

In short, the bubble got smaller by one team this afternoon. Who will be left out?

#	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	RealWins rank	T50 wins	SOS	Dance Chance	Proj Seed	Chg
46	Seton Hall	Big East	20-12	8-10	68	46	3	49	56.5	12
47	Colorado	Pac-12	21-11	11-7	62	58	2	73	54.9	12	+
48	Oral Roberts	Summit	27-6	17-1	51	56	2	190	52.6	12
49	Miami FL	ACC	19-12	9-7	60	61	2	43	52.2	13	+
50	Harvard	Ivy League	25-4	12-2	35	57	1	185	52.0	12
51	Texas	Big 12	20-13	9-9	50	74	4	18	50.5	13	-1

The light green teams were our play-in teams this morning. According to this chart, Texas would lose their bid. But the Longhorns are strong in most areas, so they might be underrated by our system, even if just a bit. That means it could be Miami, or Oral Roberts, who lost their bid today.

It also means less hope for teams that were hoping for a "surprise bid." The odds for those teams goes down considerably. Perhaps the Pac-12 was on the verge of getting a 3rd team in; instead, the Atlantic 10 will have four representatives in the Big Dance.

Kentucky, North Carolina lose: No conference champs among #1 seeds?

Vanderbilt upset Kentucky, 71-64, to win the SEC championship, while Florida State defeated North Carolina 85-82 to win the ACC tournament.

The Wildcats will still be the overall #1 seed in the NCAA tournament. Syracuse, who lost during the Big East tournament, is a solid #1 seed as well. If North Carolina holds on to their #1 seed and Kansas from the Big 12 does as well, there could be four #1 seeds without a single conference tournament champion among them.

All four teams, however, won their conference's regular season title. And there's still a chance that another team picks off a top seed:

#	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	RealWins rank	T50 wins	SOS	Dance Chance	Proj Seed	Chg
1	Kentucky	SEC	32-1	16-0	1	1	9	31	100%	1
2	Syracuse	Big East	31-2	17-1	2	2	11	22	100%	1
3	North Carolina	ACC	29-4	14-2	3	4	8	4	100%	1
4	Kansas	Big 12	27-6	16-2	6	9	11	9	100%	1	+1
5	Duke	ACC	27-6	13-3	5	3	7	2	100%	2	-1
6	Missouri	Big 12	30-4	14-4	10	7	11	69	100%	2
7	Ohio St.	Big Ten	27-6	13-5	7	5	9	11	100%	2
8	Michigan St.	Big Ten	25-7	13-5	4	6	10	1	100%	2

This morning's Dance Chance, before the upsets occurred, showed Kentucky, Syracuse, North Carolina, and Kansas as the top four. North Carolina will at least remain ahead of Duke, but the committee might go with Missouri instead of Kansas, and the Ohio State/Michigan State winner has a chance, too.

That means up to two tournament champs could be #1 seeds.

As for Florida State and Vanderbilt:

9	Marquette	Big East	25-7	14-4	9	11	5	17	100%	3
10	Baylor	Big 12	26-7	12-6	8	14	9	10	100%	3
11	Michigan	Big Ten	23-9	13-5	11	15	7	12	100%	3
12	Florida St.	ACC	23-9	12-4	17	12	4	6	100%	3	+2
13	Louisville	Big East	26-9	10-8	13	8	8	5	100%	4
14	Indiana	Big Ten	25-8	11-7	16	10	8	27	100%	4	-1
15	Georgetown	Big East	22-8	12-6	14	22	7	14	100%	4
16	Wichita St.	MVC	26-5	16-2	12	19	2	56	100%	4
17	Memphis	C-USA	26-8	13-3	15	13	5	20	100%	5
18	Wisconsin	Big Ten	24-9	12-6	22	21	6	16	100%	5	-1
19	Vanderbilt	SEC	23-10	10-6	25	16	4	8	100%	5	+1

The Seminoles were our lowest 3-seed, and its doubtful they'll jump past all the 3-seeds and surpass the loser of Ohio State/Michigan State to get a 2-seed. But they're clearly a 3-seed.

The Commodores were a low 5-seed, but the big upset should carry them to a 4-seed.

We'll have our final brackets out just after the Michigan State/Ohio State game this afternoon.

Atlantic 10 Tournament: Temple, St. Joseph's lose, St. Louis escapes

The Atlantic 10, which has 14 members per today's common conference math, has five teams with a fighting chance to get into the tournament. Two of those teams lost this afternoon, and one more is guaranteed to lose tonight.

Conference leader Temple was upset by Massachusetts, 77-71. Lucky for the Owls, they are assured of an at-large berth to the Big Dance by any measure. They were a low 4-seed in this morning's Dance Chance.

#	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	RealWins rank	T50 wins	SOS	Dance Chance	Proj Seed	Chg
15	Temple	Atlantic 10	24-6	13-3	13	14	3	51	100%	4

With a #13 RPI and #14 RealWins ranking, Temple is a shoo-in, though they may fall as seed after the loss. They also won't be the conferences designated tournament favorite.

That will go to St. Louis, who was in danger of becoming a bubble team before their 78-71 triumph over La Salle helps them stay clear.

#	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	RealWins rank	T50 wins	SOS	Dance Chance	Proj Seed	Chg
42	St. Louis	Atlantic 10	23-6	12-4	30	33	0	101	67.9	11

The Billikens are now 24-6 after a 12-4 Atlantic 10 record, with solid RPI and RealWins. Their lack of top 50 RPI wins is their only résumé weakness.

Three Atlantic 10 teams were deadlocked on the bubble, and one of them, St. Joseph's, is probably out of luck after being upset by St. Bonaventure 71-68.

#	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	RealWins rank	T50 wins	SOS	Dance Chance	Proj Seed	Chg
53	Saint Joseph's	Atlantic 10	20-12	9-7	60	39	2	52	37.7		x
54	Xavier	Atlantic 10	19-11	10-6	54	54	2	47	37.7
55	Dayton	Atlantic 10	20-11	9-7	74	37	3	69	35.9

Xavier and Dayton play later tonight, and that will knock another candidate off the bubble. It seems reasonable to assume at this time that the Atlantic 10 will have three teams in the Big Dance: Temple, St. Louis, and either Xavier or Dayton.

Unless, of course, one of the other two teams ends up winning the conference:

#	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	RealWins rank	T50 wins	SOS	Dance Chance	Proj Seed	Chg
81	Massachusetts	Atlantic 10	21-10	9-7	82	74	1	135	0.1
101	St. Bonaventure	Atlantic 10	17-11	10-6	96	108	0	127	0.1

Massachusetts will get a boost from the Temple win, and will likely show a real percentage instead the token 0.1% that teams far below the waterline get when they still have a miniscule chance. St. Bonaventure will move up from #101 but probably still show a 0.1% chance. Of the two, only UMass has an RPI anywhere near respectable levels.

Thursday Night Bubble Results: Cal, Miami, Texas Win; Mississippi State, South Florida Lose

California did what they had to do: beat Stanford, 77-71, to secure a spot in the NCAA tournament. Now, whether or not they end up with any top 50 RPI wins, the Golden Bears should be in the Big Dance. Their seed is anybody's guess; right now we have them as an 8-seed, but if Oregon loses to Colorado the Bears could be a 10- or 11-seed.

Miami beat Georgia Tech, 54-36 by dominating the 2nd half 35-16. The Hurricanes don't clinch a spot with a win over the hapless (11-20) Yellow Jackets, but it keeps them above water until they face Florida State tomorrow.

Texas got the upset they desperately needed, beating Iowa State 71-65. The Longhorns should be back on our seedline tomorrow, while the Cyclones, though securely "in", could fall from a 7-seed.

The Dance Chance bubble before tonight's action:

#	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	RealWins rank	T50 wins	SOS	Dance Chance	Proj Seed	Chg
41	South Florida	Big East	19-12	12-6	40	45	1	28	79.4	11
42	St. Louis	Atlantic 10	23-6	12-4	30	29	0	94	76.6	11	-1
43	Seton Hall	Big East	20-12	8-10	62	39	3	44	69.7	11
44	Iona	Metro Atl	25-7	15-3	41	30	1	145	65.9	11	+1
45	Colorado St.	Mtn West	18-10	8-6	21	59	3	7	65.9	12
46	Mississippi St.	SEC	21-10	8-8	66	41	2	66	64.5	12	-1
47	Harvard	Ivy League	25-4	12-2	36	47	1	183	62.4	12
48	Miami FL	ACC	18-11	9-7	55	67	2	41	55.8	12
49	Oral Roberts	Summit	27-6	17-1	50	46	1	190	54.3	12
50	Oregon	Pac-12	22-8	13-5	49	64	0	88	52.1	13	+
51	Saint Joseph's	Atlantic 10	20-12	9-7	56	33	2	49	50.5	13
52	Brigham Young	West Coast	23-8	12-4	46	83	3	93	49.3
53	Northwestern	Big Ten	18-12	8-10	47	65	1	12	49.0		x
54	Texas	Big 12	19-12	9-9	52	81	3	21	47.9
55	North Carolina State	ACC	20-11	9-7	53	58	0	26	46.8

South Florida lost in overtime to Notre Dame, putting their bid in jeopardy. But the Bulls—now 19-13—have a pretty strong résumé and should make it.

Mississippi State is far from certain after losing tonight to Georgia, 71-61. With Miami and Texas winning, the Bulldogs could be out, and their RPI (66 this morning) will only be worse after the loss.

Making matters worse for the Bulldogs, North Carolina State advanced in the ACC tournament earlier by beating Boston College 78-57. That might not put the Wolfpack ahead of Mississippi State, but a win over Virginia tomorrow certainly would.

The Texas and N.C. State results are bad news for BYU, who is trying to get a bid while idle, having finished their conference tournament already. Northwestern did lose, however, and Oregon could fall tonight, which is a mixed bag for BYU as we mentioned in the article linked in the first paragraph.

More Thursday Results: Bracket Rundown

With a handful of significant games involving bubble teams currently ongoing, here are Thursday's less important results so far and what they mean, according to the Dance Chance:

• Iowa beat Illinois, 64-61, reducing Illinois' already-meager chances to 0 or very near. With 15 losses, a 6-12 conference record, and 84+ RPI, we were going to say "stranger things have happened than Illinois getting a bid" but no, stranger things have not happened. Iowa is guaranteed to finish with 16 losses if they don't win the Big Ten, so they are NIT bound with the win.
• Top-seed shoo-in Syracuse beat Connecticut, 68-65, keeping their top overall seed dream alive. Connecticut is in but their seed could be anywhere from 7 to 12 depending on how the committee weighs their late-season collapse. We guess 8 or 9.
• Maryland beat Wake Forest 82-60, increasing their at-large bid odds at 17-14 from roughly 0.002% to 0.001%. The Terps would have to be first 15-loss team to make the Big Dance if they don't win the ACC.
• Baylor took a big step in securing a 3-seed by beating Kansas State 82-74. K-State has a strong stats line, with no below-the-waterline numbers and will be in the Dance, somewhere.

#	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	RealWins rank	T50 wins	SOS	Dance Chance	Proj Seed	Chg
35	Kansas St.	Big 12	21-9	10-8	44	44	5	57	89.4	9

Meanwhile Kansas beat Texas A&M, 83-66, keeping them on track for a #1 seed, while Missouri defeated Oklahoma State 88-70. The Tigers are the top 3-seed right now, looking to move up.

• Southern Miss needed overtime but they beat East Carolina. A loss wouldn't have kicked them out of the NCAAs but would have made host team Memphis, who beat UTEP 65-47, the overwhelming favorite to win the C-USA title.

#	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	RealWins rank	T50 wins	SOS	Dance Chance	Proj Seed	Chg
27	Memphis	C-USA	23-8	13-3	18	22	1	16	99.9	7
28	Southern Miss	C-USA	22-7	11-5	17	31	3	47	99.9	7	+1

Currently the two are neck and neck in the Dance Chance, as seen above. Marshall also won, beating Tulsa in triple overtime, but the Herd are still a long shot.

• Speaking of long shots, LSU kept their very slim hopes alive by beating Arkansas. Now 18-13, what the Tigers need most are some high-profile wins to pad their résumé. It's a tall order, but if anything can pull their RPI and RealWins out of the 80s, it's a win over Kentucky, whom they face tomorrow. Good luck.
• Mississippi stayed alive in the at-large market by beating Auburn 68-54. The Rebels chances are significantly better than LSU's, especially because they face Tennessee tomorrow instead of Kentucky.
• Alabama is in much better shape. Beating South Carolina as they did today won't improve their projected 7-seed, but a win over Florida tomorrow would.
• Indiana, a fairly solid 3-seed, beat Penn State to set up a showdown tomorrow with Wisconsin in the Big Ten tournament. Purdue bested Nebraska 79-61 and faces Ohio State next.
• Out West, Arizona beat UCLA to revive their dormant hopes. The Wildcats still probably need to run the table to make the Big Dance, but that got easier with Washington out of the way. Instead of the Huskies, they'll face Oregon State.
• Colorado State beat TCU, a big help for the Rams who were a 12th-seeded bubble team this morning. Other Mountain West teams to win include San Diego State and New Mexico, while UNLV is currently in progress against Wyoming.
• Finally, conference tourney favorites Nevada (WAC) and Long Beach State (Big West) got wins, Nevada beating San Jose State 55-44 after leading just 14-13 at the half, and the 49ers beat UC Davis easily, 80-46.
• There was a huge upset, however, in the Southland Conference, where Texas-Arlington—17-1 during the regular season—lost to McNeese State in a big way, 92-72. McNeese will face Lamar for entry into the NCAA tournament. WIth an RPI likely over 100 tomorrow, Arlington will have to use their automatic NIT bid as regular season winner.

Thursday's Results: Cincinnati In; Washington, Northwestern in trouble

What a difference double overtime makes. One play here or there late in regulation or the two extra periods and Cincinnati would be worrying right now about their NCAA bid. With an RPI of 70, they couldn't count on being a certainty for the field if they had lost to Georgetown. Instead, after winning 72-70, the Bearcats are all but assured a bid.

Here's their line in the Dance Chance rankings prior to the game:

#	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	RealWins rank	T50 wins	SOS	Dance Chance	Proj Seed	Chg
37	Cincinnati	Big East	22-9	12-6	70	27	5	106	88.2	10	-1

As we mentioned this morning: good record, great conference record, terrible RPI, very strong RealWins rank and 5 big wins. But a poor SOS dragging down their RPI. Just playing Georgetown helps that, and beating them will send it up to a near-respectable level. The rest of their numbers get them in. Now the only questions are how far can they go in the Big East tournament and how high will they be seeded? They're sure to move up from our 10-seed placing this morning, and if they can beat Syracuse tomorrow, they could end up about a 6-seed.

It was bad news, however, for a couple of bubble teams. First, Northwestern, who has never been in the NCAA tournament.

The Wildcats started the day our 2nd team out, basically a 50/50 proposition by our estimation. Their 18-12/8-10 record wasn't impressive but given that the former was against the #12 schedule in the country, and the latter achieved in the nation's toughest conference, they aren't bad numbers. NU's RPI was a borderline #47. But where were the big wins? Only 1 against the top 50 RPI, and their RealWins rank of 65 implies they aren't beating good teams at a rare clip. They needed a win.

They didn't get it. Like Cincy, it was an overtime game, but unlike the Bearcats the Wildcats came up on the wrong side of the coin, losing 75-68 to Minnesota.

#	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	RealWins rank	T50 wins	SOS	Dance Chance	Proj Seed	Chg
50	Oregon	Pac-12	22-8	13-5	49	64	0	88	52.1	13	+
51	Saint Joseph's	Atlantic 10	20-12	9-7	56	33	2	49	50.5	13
52	Brigham Young	West Coast	23-8	12-4	46	83	3	93	49.3
53	Northwestern	Big Ten	18-12	8-10	47	65	1	12	49.0		x
54	Texas	Big 12	19-12	9-9	52	81	3	21	47.9
55	North Carolina State	ACC	20-11	9-7	53	58	0	26	46.8
56	Tennessee	SEC	17-13	10-6	76	66	4	31	44.9
57	Washington	Pac-12	21-9	14-4	54	85	1	82	44.1

Washington, too, needed a win today. According to the Dance Chance, they needed a couple of wins in the tournament, most likely. But even though other bracketologists have the Huskies in much better shape, after their loss to Oregon State they're going to be at best a bubble team across the board.

Oregon State raced to a 46-33 halftime lead, but Washington came back to take the lead. The Beavers didn't give up and the end of the game was a comedy of errors, with 9 missed free throws between the teams late in the game.

The Huskies won the Pac-12 outright with a 14-4 record, and is seems almost impossible that they'd be excluded from the tournament after winning a major conference regular season title. And that perception might be what gets them in. But looking at their numbers—a 54 RPI sure to get a bit worse, and a wins profile that includes a #85 RealWins ranking and just a single top 50 win—the Huskies don't make it on paper. They certainly won't be in our final seedings. Common sense, though, says they have to be in, even if as a play-in team, and perhaps that's a good compromise between where their stats say they should be, and where a major conference winner should be, no matter how poor the Pac-12 is this year.

Come Selection Sunday, then, Northwestern will have to assume they aren't in, but will hold onto hope. Washington will probably assume they've got to be in—but they'll be sweating it out as the brackets are announced.

Revenge is Sweet: Duke, Murray State pay back FSU, Tennessee State with road wins

About a month ago, Florida State beat Duke on the Blue Devils' home court, 76-73. On February 9th, Tennessee State traveled to Murray State and handed the Racers their first loss of the season, 72-68.

Fast forward to last night. Duke avenged their home loss win a 74-66 win in Tallahassee, clarifying the ACC regular-season title race a bit by breaking the 3-way tie that had existed between the Blue Devils, Tar Heels, and Seminoles. Murray State invaded Tennessee State's home court and this time it was no contest; the Racers won easily, 80-62, after taking a 45-28 halftime lead. You think they were mad at the Tigers for spoiling their perfect record?

The Blue Devils move up to #7 in our Zeitgeist rankings from #9, while Murray State moves back into the top ten and Florida State falls out. 

The top ten consists of most of the usual suspects, with Syracuse, Kentucky, Michigan State, Missouri, and Kansas all in the top six. Notably absent are North Carolina (#11) and Ohio State, who ranks #13 after losing two of their last four. Instead, mid-majors Wichita State and Temple ride lengthy winning streaks into the top ten.

prev Rnk Team                   Rec   Rating  Last game (each . = 1 day ago)
  1   1. Syracuse               28-1   85.21  .W 56-48 #47 South Florida      
  2   2. Kentucky               27-1   74.22  ..W 73-64 @#78 Mississippi St.  
  3   3. Michigan St.           23-5   62.37  .W 66-61 @#103 Minnesota        
  4   4. Missouri               25-3   52.02  ..L 78-68 #59 Kansas St.        
  5   5. Notre Dame             20-8   50.72  .W 71-44 #75 West Virginia      
  6   6. Kansas                 23-5   50.60  .W 66-58 @#205 Texas A&M        
  9   7. Duke                   24-4   48.40  W 74-66 @#10 Florida St.        
  7   8. Wichita St.            25-4   47.58  .W 68-55 @#128 Illinois St.     
  8   9. Temple                 22-5   45.73  .W 80-79OT @#85 La Salle        
 14  10. Murray St.             27-1   41.47  W 80-62 @#59 Tennessee St.     

Of the two teams that made a major mid-season surge, Notre Dame has followed through better than the Seminoles, not losing since they beat Syracuse to start their great run. Florida State has now lost twice since their huge win over North Carolina and ranks #21, while the Irish eventually moved into the top five as their recent performance is heavily weighed.

Another, less pronounced payback: Gonzaga defeated BYU last night 74-63, avenging a road loss to the Cougars from early February. Of course, this type of thing (winning at home, losing on the road) is typical in conference play between teams of a certain parity—and isn't too uncommon among teams of disparate strength.

Badgers Upset by Iowa again

Another team that lost at home previously in conference play and had a chance for payback couldn't quite close the gap at the end. Iowa had defeated Wisconsin in Madison 72-65, way back on January 31st. For the rematch in Iowa City, the 15-13 Hawkeyes took it to the Badgers again, maintaining a 10-point lead for most of the game. Wisconsin got close late, and a last-second Badger three pointer made the final score Iowa 67, Wisconsin 66. Both teams shot the lights out early but it was Iowa's Matt Gatens who continued to do so in the 2nd half, and his two free throws at the end iced the game. He finished with 33 points after bashing Indiana for 31 on Sunday.

The two wins gave Iowa a monstrous boost in our Zeitgeist rankings, soaring the Hawks from #120 to #71 to #47 today, nearly putting them even with Wisconsin who has lost three of their last five. Here's a look at the jumps in the rankings since last Friday:

F17 F23  Team                    Rec   Rating  Last game (each . = 1 day ago)
 30  42. Wisconsin              20-8   22.62  L 67-66 @#120 Iowa              
 27  43. Georgetown             20-6   22.56  ..L 73-55 @#63 Seton Hall       
 29  44. Memphis                20-8   22.31  .W 70-47 #210 East Carolina     
 28  45. Nevada                 22-5   21.98  .....L 90-84 @#59 Iona          
 33  46. George Mason           23-7   21.92  .L 85-82OT @#217 Northeastern   
120  47. Iowa                   15-13  21.30  W 67-66 #30 Wisconsin           
130  48. Texas El Paso          14-13  20.78  .W 76-68OT #12 Southern Mississip

The Hawkeyes are the highest-rated 11-, 12-, or 13-loss team, but not by much: Texas El Paso's huge upsets of both #29 Memphis and #12 Southern Miss gave them even more points and put them right behind Iowa. Of course to maintain their top 50 rankings, both teams will have to stay hot. The Zeitgeist tries to capture how teams are doing right now, so rankings change rapidly with each win and loss.

While beating top opponents allows teams to make big jumps, beating lowly teams doesn't help much, as a number of schools found out yesterday. Marquette, for example, only gained one place for beating #188 Rutgers 82-65. California's win over 5-22 Utah didn't even help the Golden Bears hold their place, as they drop from #24 to #25. Wagner held at #27 after beating #342 Bryant (2-27), Middle Tennessee State gained one place for beating #340 ULM (2-26), and South Dakota State earned four spots for a win over #200 Western Illinois. Contrast this with Cincinnati, who moved up 20 spots to #31 after edging #33 Louisville.

prev Rnk Team                   Rec   Rating  Last game (each . = 1 day ago)
 24  25. California             23-6   29.13  W 60-46 @#323 Utah              
 25  26. Harvard                23-3   28.96  .....W 66-51 #100 Yale          
 27  27. Wagner                 24-4   27.99  W 86-73 @#342 Bryant            
 28  28. Nevada Las Vegas       23-6   27.40  .W 75-58 #123 Boise St.         
 30  29. Middle Tennessee       25-4   25.31  W 94-61 @#340 Louisiana Monroe  
 31  30. Washington             19-8   25.26  .....W 79-70 #37 Arizona        
 51  31. Cincinnati             20-8   24.88  W 60-56 #33 Louisville          
 36  32. South Dakota St.       23-7   24.82  W 74-57 #200 Western Illinois   

And of course, the lower you are in the rankings the easier it is to move up a whole lot of places. When you beat a relatively good team, it gets even easier. Binghamton ranked dead last at #345 and were 0-26 before upsetting Vermont, which gave them probably the biggest 1-day jump in our rankings this season (nearly 100 places). They fall back 18 spots from #247 to #265 after losing to Albany, but they still rank ahead of nearly two dozen teams with double-digit wins.

Vermont was #99 before Binghamton beat them, and that's what propelled the Bearcats so high. The Zeitgeist rankings have no real "memory" of past games, just a rating score that gets modified as new information comes in. It pays to beat good teams, though—even if you have to wait all season.

 

0-26 Binghamton upsets America East leader Vermont, 57-53

It's been a few weeks since Murray State, the nation's last unbeaten team, got their first loss. On the other side of the spectrum, it was looking pretty certain that Binghamton would end the season winless.

But Tuesday night the Bearcats upset America East conference co-leader Vermont, 57-53. They took a shocking 35-25 halftime lead and held on for their first win in front of a home crowd. The Catamounts shot only 32% for the evening.

The win was surprising for several reasons. On February 15th, Binghamton seemingly blew their last good chance for a win, falling at home 70-56 to 3-22 Maryland Baltimore County. After losing to Radford on the 18th, the Bearcats had three games remaining: Vermont (19-10), Albany (17-13), and New Hampshire (12-14). According to Ken Pomeroy's odds, there was an 80% chance they'd end the season winless.

America East    Conf      All
Vermont         12-2     19-10
Stony Brook     12-2     18-8 
Boston          10-4     14-15
Albany           8-7     17-13
Hartford         7-7      8-19
New Hampshire    6-8     12-14
Maine            5-9     11-15
MD Balt Cty      3-11     4-23
Binghamton       0-13     0-26
America East conference standings prior to the game

And their odds of beating Vermont, even playing at home, were given as only 4%. The Catamounts were 12-2 in the America East and were our projected favorite to make the NCAA tournament. Having defeated Binghamton 73-53 back in January, they were a 19-point favorite tonight according to our Strength power rating.

Whether Vermont was overconfident, just had a horrible shooting night, or Binghamton somehow managed their best play against the conference's top team, we don't know. The heroes for Binghamton were Robert Mansell with 18 points, and Ben Dickinson with 16 points and 11 rebounds.

The program has a ways to go under Mark Macon. They went from 23-9 the year before he arrived (and a recruiting scandal rocked the school) to 13-18 his first season, 8-23 last year, and 1-26 so far in 2011-2012. But congratulations are in order to Macon and Binghamton for avoiding the winless season, and doing it in style by beating the conference leader.

Two HUGE road comebacks: Notre Dame and UC Davis win after being down 20

The luck of the Irish was in full force on Saturday as Notre Dame mounted a huge comeback from 20 points down to beat Villanova 78-74 in overtime.

But that wasn't the only huge comeback on Saturday: UC Davis came back from 21 points down to win, 70-65 at Northern Arizona.

Both home teams took huge leads at the half: Villanova was up 39-23 and Northern Arizona led 45-26. But Notre Dame won the 2nd half 37-21 and UC Davis had an amazing 44-20 advantage in the 2nd period.

Notre Dame's comeback actually started late in the 1st half; down 39-19, they scored the final four points of the half, then came back with 3-point shooting and late mistakes by Villanova. The overtime win completed Notre Dame's 8th straight victory to put them 19-8 on the year.

The Aggies also hit their low point in the 1st half, down 41-20, but after that more than doubled Northern Arizona's output. Harrison DuPont scored 19 points off the bench, overcoming 26 from Durrell Norman who hit 14 of 16 free throws. The game was part of the Bracketbusters series.

Neither team has had much success this year, even for half a game. UC Davis improved to 4-22, while Northern Arizona fell to 5-22.

Big Saturday: Spartans humble Buckeyes; Missouri beats Baylor again; Creighton's slide continues

Nearly every top team was in action on Saturday as the season nears the key final month before Selection Sunday. The biggest games were the Missouri-Baylor rematch and Ohio State hosting Michigan State, but the latter turned out to be the more important result as the Spartans stunned the Buckeyes on their own court, 58-48.

The Buckeyes were held to 48 points, 32 of those by Jared Sullinger and Aaron Craft. Sullinger also had 10 turnovers and the team shot just 26% in their first home loss in nearly two years. Michigan State, with three players in double figures led by Adreian Payne's 15, took a 10-point halftime lead and battled to an even 2nd half for the win.

The loss puts Ohio State's #1 ranking in our Strength power rating in real jeopardy. #2 Kentucky has been closing in lately, and the Buckeyes' poor performance—coupled with Kentucky's 69-63 win at Vanderbilt—put the Wildcats within a tenth of a point of #1:

#   Team                     record    Rating
1.  Ohio St.                  21-4     24.69
2.  Kentucky                  25-1     24.60
3.  Kansas                    20-5     22.03
4.  Syracuse                  25-1     21.75
5.  North Carolina            21-4     21.72
6.  Michigan St.              20-5     21.62
7.  Missouri                  23-2     20.36

The margin yesterday was 9/10 of a point. None of the top 10 actually changed positions, as the Strength rating averages the entire season's worth of games, making movements at this time of the year as slow as molasses. But for the first time in a long time, the #1 spot is up for grabs in the coming weeks.

Kentucky retained the #1 spot in our Success power rating. There was some movement in those rankings, which aggregates a team's wins and losses rather than averages margins of victory. But Missouri's 2nd win over Baylor—72-57 at home—didn't allow them to jump Kentucky, mostly because the Tigers won at home while the Wildcats scored a road win.

#   Team                     record    Rating
1.  Kentucky                  25-1     40.64
2.  Missouri                  23-2     36.04
3.  Syracuse                  25-1     34.23
4.  Michigan St.              20-5     24.77
5.  Duke                      21-4     23.40
6.  Ohio St.                  21-4     20.06
7.  Kansas                    20-5     17.63

Michigan State bumped Ohio State from the #4 spot and took over that position, as winning on the road is a premium in these rankings. The Spartans also ended up #4 in the Combined power rating, the combination of Strength and Success, one spot ahead of the Buckeyes:

#   Team                     record    Rating
1.  Kentucky                  25-1     65.24
2.  Missouri                  23-2     56.40
3.  Syracuse                  25-1     55.99
4.  Michigan St.              20-5     46.39
5.  Ohio St.                  21-4     44.76
6.  Duke                      21-4     42.24
7.  Kansas                    20-5     39.66

Missouri did manage to bump Syracuse to #3, with Kentucky a fairly dominant #1. In the Zeitgeist rankings, however, Syracuse has been the dominant #1, and with a 85-67 win over slumping Connecticut was able to hold off Kentucky and Missouri.

prev Rnk Team                    Record  Rating Last game (each . = 1 day ago)
  1   1. Syracuse                 25-1   73.73  W 85-67 #96 Connecticut       
  2   2. Kentucky                 25-1   69.26  W 69-63 @#38 Vanderbilt       
  3   3. Missouri                 23-2   61.55  W 72-57 #9 Baylor             
  8   4. Michigan St.             20-5   49.89  W 58-48 @#4 Ohio St.          
  6   5. Kansas                   20-5   46.71  W 81-66 #76 Oklahoma St.      
  5   6. Notre Dame               17-8   45.01  W 84-76 #223 DePaul           
  4   7. Ohio St.                 21-4   42.22  L 58-48 #8 Michigan St.       
 13   8. Wichita St.              22-4   39.98  W 89-68 @#21 Creighton        
 17   9. Nevada Las Vegas         22-4   39.85  W 65-63 #7 San Diego St.      
 10  10. Temple                   19-5   37.54  W 85-72 #86 Xavier            

Michigan State surged past Kansas, whose win over Oklahoma State didn't do as much for them, and Notre Dame, while still hot and winning, didn't earn much for beating #223 DePaul. The other big moves came from mid-majors, as UNLV jumped into the top ten with a 65-63 besting of former #7 San Diego State, and Wichita State surged to #8 with a TKO of Creighton, 89-68 in Omaha.

Creighton's fall in the volatile Zeitgeist rankings has been sudden. At 21-2 on February 1st, they were #3; their loss to UNI on 2/4 dropped them to #12; losing to Evansville on the 7th pushed them down to #21; and yesterday's loss knocks the Bluejays to #35.

The Bluejays also suffer on the RealWins algorithm, where they are no longer a "near-lock." For a few weeks they've been above 30.0, but their share of the Division I world's wins has eroded and they've dipped below the lock level.

 rnk Team                    record    Wins     Lock%
  1. Syracuse                 25-1     40.38   100.00
  2. Kentucky                 25-1     39.23   100.00
  3. Duke                     21-4     35.91    99.99
  4. Missouri                 23-2     34.02    99.99
  5. Michigan St.             19-5     31.93    99.99
  6. Ohio St.                 21-4     31.63    99.99
  7. Kansas                   20-5     31.12    99.99
  8. North Carolina           21-4     31.07    99.99
  9. Marquette                21-5     30.81    99.99
 10. Wichita St.              21-4     30.74    99.99
 11. Louisville               20-5     29.87    99.57
 12. Creighton                21-5     29.62    98.75

At 99.99%, a team is considered a lock under all but the most devastating circumstances, usually meaning they have to lose every remaining game. So far Creighton has done that; at 21-2 they seemed a sure thing, but at 21-10, there is some doubt.

In fact, Syracuse and Kentucky are still the only teams we give a guarantee to make the tournament no matter what. Duke and Missouri are very close, but the Blue Devils at 21-11 and the Tigers at 23-9, with big losing streaks, become strong bubble teams rather than strong #1 seed contenders. Both teams are one win from absolute lock status.

The rest of the top ten is assured a berth unless they completely fall apart, and four teams joined that designation today: Michigan State with their big win; North Carolina after beating Virginia 70-52; Marquette, who dipped below 30.0 with a few losses but rebounded with a 95-78 win over Cincinnati; and Wichita State with the Creighton victory.

Finally, the RPI: Since road wins count 1.4 times as much as neutral-court wins (and 2.33 times as much as a home win), and home losses count have the same multiplier, Michigan State and Ohio State both made big moves in the RPI.

RPI                        Div I        [.25   .50   .25 ]         
rnk  Team                  record  RPI= [AWP + OWP + OOWP] SOS [rnk]
  1. Syracuse               25-1  .6809 .9717 .6050 .5418 .5839[ 15]
  2. Duke                   21-4  .6643 .8230 .6367 .5609 .6114[  2]
  3. Kentucky               25-1  .6624 .9727 .5611 .5547 .5590[ 52]
  4. Michigan St.           19-5  .6557 .8021 .6352 .5503 .6069[  3]
  5. Kansas                 20-5  .6489 .7850 .6257 .5593 .6036[  4]
  6. Missouri               23-2  .6483 .9417 .5535 .5443 .5504[ 65]
  7. Baylor                 20-4  .6474 .8246 .6143 .5365 .5884[  9]
  8. North Carolina         21-4  .6472 .8218 .6122 .5425 .5890[  8]
  9. Nevada Las Vegas       20-4  .6429 .8800 .5847 .5221 .5639[ 43]
 10. Ohio St.               21-4  .6398 .8316 .5893 .5491 .5759[ 25]

The Spartans jumped from #7 to #4, while the Buckeyes fell from #4 all the way to #10. So quite literally, the road win could put Michigan State ahead in the battle for a #1 seed from the Big Ten. There's still a lot of season left as well as the Big Ten tournament so that talk is premature, but if the Spartans do nab a #1 seed, yesterday's game will have been the key turning point.

Another top-seed battle is going on in the Big Twelve. Kansas held on to the #5 spot and Missouri moved up to #6 from #9 as Baylor dropped from #6 to #7. As the Bears have been swept by both Kansas and Missouri, their shot at a #1 seed is looking pretty slim. But again, there's still the conference tournament.

Nail-biters: Syracuse wins in overtime; Duke tops UNC with last-second three

Syracuse and Duke needed some luck to win Wednesday night, but Kansas rolled over Baylor.

The Orange stayed unbeaten at home, topping Georgetown 64-61 in overtime. Center Feb Melo, in his 2nd game back from academic suspension, scored 11 points and had six blocked shots. Syracuse strengthened their already strong argument for a 1-seed and remain #1 in our Zeitgeist rankings.

Duke got a boost right when they needed it—literally. The Blue Devils had lost two home games recently (to Florida State and Miami), but Austin Rivers' 3-pointer gave them a huge road win over rival UNC, 85-84. It capped a remarkable comeback over the last few minutes of play, when Duke was down by 10 points. Ty Zeller helped the Blue Devil cause inadvertantly by missing two late free throws and tipping in a Duke airball three-points attempt (they were credited two points). Rivers had a career-high 29.

Kansas didn't need overtime or last-second shots to beat Baylor, 68-54, however. The Jayhawks handled the upstart Bears easily for the second time, this one on the road, behind a career game by center Jeff Withey who had 25 points. Baylor led early but Kansas finished the first half strong to take a 33-30 halftime lead, then continued that run early in the 2nd half to take control of the game.

Zeitgeist rankings for February 9, 2012
prev Rnk Team                    Record  Rating Last game (each . = 1 day ago)
  1   1. Syracuse                 24-1   71.27  W 64-61OT #17 Georgetown      
  2   2. Kentucky                 24-1   64.56  .W 78-58 #6 Florida           
  3   3. Missouri                 22-2   54.15  ..W 71-68 @#121 Oklahoma      
  4   4. Ohio St.                 21-3   52.78  .W 87-84 #95 Purdue           
  6   5. Notre Dame               16-8   44.27  W 55-51 @#60 West Virginia    
 13   6. Kansas                   19-5   43.53  W 68-54 @#5 Baylor            
  7   7. San Diego St.            20-3   40.16  ....W 83-73 #106 Texas Christia
 11   8. Michigan St.             19-5   39.33  W 77-57 #185 Penn St.         
  9   9. Murray St.               23-0   39.01  ....W 65-58 @#343 Tennessee Mar
 10  10. St. Mary's               22-2   38.54  ......W 84-73 #269 San Diego  
  5  11. Baylor                   21-3   36.99  L 68-54 #13 Kansas            
 14  12. Temple                   18-5   34.57  W 79-72 #246 George Washington
 26  13. Duke                     20-4   34.41  W 85-84 @#16 North Carolina   
 15  14. Florida                  19-5   33.89  .L 78-58 @#2 Kentucky         
 22  15. Wichita St.              21-4   33.83  W 82-57 #57 Northern Iowa    

Hot teams go in different directions

Notre Dame's hot streak continued while Florida State's came to an end. The two teams, who hit turbulence mid-season and looked dead in the water, both came to life weeks ago with huge wins and multi-game winning streaks. Notre Dame extended theirs to 5 games with a win at West Virginia, 55-51, but Florida State fell for the first time in 8 games, losing at Boston College 63-56 in a big upset. In the volatile Zeitgeist ratings, that was enough to drop FSU from #12 to #21 (and elevate BC from #268 to #122!) while Notre Dame's win pushest them incredibly into the top five with a 16-8 record.

Another temporarily-hot recovery team, Pittsburgh, saw their 4-game streak come to an end at South Florida, 63-51.

Kansas' big win moved them from #13 to #6, while Baylor fell from #5 to #11. Michigan State beat Penn State to regain their spot in the top ten. The Zeitgeist doesn't seem to like the ACC teams much, as Duke's win only lifts them to #13, but that's 13 spots higher than they were. Wichita State defeated Northern Iowa 82-57, moving them into the top 15 and ahead of #20 Creighton, making the Shockers the highest-rated team from the Missouri Valley Conference.

Former #8 Southern Mississippi fell to #17 with their 4th loss of the year, a 71-61 upset at Alabama-Birmingham, who jumps from #154 to #81.

At #9 and #10 are Murray State (23-0) and St. Mary's (22-2), who play in the marquee matchup in the BracketBusters on February 18th.

Mid-Major Thursday: Oral Roberts loses; BYU beats Gonzaga; Murray State, St. Mary's win

There was little action among the top teams of the "Big Six" last night but it was a big Thursday for mid-majors. Oral Roberts, BYU, Gonzaga, Murray State, and St. Mary's were all active, with mixed results for those teams.

Oral Roberts wasn't among our highest rated in our Strength and Success power ratings, but they were #13 in the Zeitgeist rankings, mainly due to their 13-game winning streak. That streak came to an end last night as the Golden Eagles lost to South Dakota State, 75-60. It was their first road game after four straight at home, and the Jackrabbits are no slouch at 18-6. The loss drops Oral Roberts to #25 in the Zeitgeist rankings; they're #64 in our Combined Power Rating (#75 Strength, #47 Success).

In the West Coast Conference, BYU (19-6) beat Gonzaga (17-4), 83-73. The Cougars are now 7-3 in conference play to the Bulldogs' 7-2. Meanwhile, St. Mary's improved to 11-0 in WCC play with a win over San Diego.

Still, the Gaels get bumped out of the Zeitgeist top ten by Murray State, who improved to 22-0 overall by beating Southeast Missouri State 81-73. The two teams—St. Mary's and Murray State—will meet in the marquee matchup of the Bracketbusters on February 18th.

The Gaels—#22 in our Strength power rating to Murray State's #63—should be the favorite in that game, but Murray State is the host, giving them a good chance. Still, the Racers will be a slim underdog to keep their record unblemished. Other than that game, Murray State shouldn't be challenged too heavily, so if they get past the Gaels they should be the first team to enter the NCAA tournament undefeated since UNLV in 1991.

Marquette beats Seton Hall, locks up NCAA bid; Michigan State loses to Illinois 42-41

We can't be sure that Marquette will be in the Big Dance, but all signs point to "yes": they are 19-4 now after beating Seton Hall, 66-59, and stand 8-2 in the Big East. They just past the 30.0 mark in our RealWins algorithm, making them the 4th team to "lock" a spot in the tournament, joining Syracuse, Kentucky, and Duke.

It's a far cry from last year's situation, when Marquette was a week-to-week bubble team, finally making the tournament as an 11-seed with a 20-14 record. The Golden Eagles finished the regular part of the season 18-13 and were touch-and-go before two Big East tournament wins iced it for them. This year, even if they lose out they'll be 19-12—one game better, but a game worse in Big East record at 8-10—so a first-round Big East loss could keep them out, considering that the committee still considers a team's last 10 games (though at one point they said they'd thrown that heuristic out). So take "lock" to mean, pretty damn near a lock unless their world comes to an end.

The Strict% column, however, only goes to 100% when a team can't play their way out of the tournament under any circumstances. In that regard, no one is really a "lock" yet. Four teams have done enough in terms of wins to be a shoo-in, but in the worst case scenario, they could fall to the bubble and miss out.

Here are the top ten teams in RealWins as of the end of January:

 rnk Team                    record    Wins     Lock%   Strict%
  1. Syracuse                 22-1     37.40   100.00    95.59
  2. Kentucky                 22-1     33.53   100.00    85.69
  3. Duke                     18-3     31.30   100.00    73.05
  4. Marquette                19-4     30.60   100.00    78.23
  5. Creighton                20-2     28.56    95.22    69.83
  6. Missouri                 20-2     28.35    94.52    69.31
  7. Ohio St.                 19-3     27.91    93.05    68.24
  8. Michigan St.             17-5     27.67    92.25    67.65
  9. North Carolina           19-3     27.41    91.39    67.02
 10. Wisconsin                18-5     27.15    90.53    69.41

Creighton is next in line to lock up their spot, but their schedule isn't full of teams that add a lot to their score. So they've been waiting for a while. But the Blue Jays just need 1 or 2 more wins to put them over the top. Likewise the rest of the top ten, which is full of teams that are 99% certain to be in the tournament, but only 90-some percent to the point where they wouldn't require any more wins, and about 70% to the point where additional losses don't harm them.

Other action: Michigan State upset; Arkansas beats Vanderbilt

Kentucky, already a lock, won again last night, while North Carolina and Wisconsin added a small amount to their win total by beating Wake Forest and Penn State respectively.

Michigan State lost to Illinois, however, 42-41, delaying any progress on the RealWins chart and dropping them from #7 to #18 in our Zeitgeist rankings. Illinois (16-6) leapt from #61 to #35 due to the win.

Virginia, #25 in our Zeitgeist rankings yesterday, beat Clemson 65-61 while New Mexico moved into the #25 spot with an 81-42 crushing of Air Force. #19 Vanderbilt was upset by Arkansas, 82-74