SportsRatings: College Basketball

FDU over Zack Edey's Purdue is modern Chaminade over Ralph Sampson's Virginia

In 1982, Chaminade, an NAIA school in Hawaii, upset the undefeated, #1 Virginia Cavaliers in Hawaii. Led by 7-4 center Ralph Sampson, they were considered pretty much unbeatable. Virginia had beaten Houston—peak Phi Slamma Jamma with Hakeem Olajuwon and Clyde Drexler—playing without Sampson. Yet Chaminade won by 5 points, 77-72. 

Today's upset of Purdue by Fairleigh Dickinson is the modern day equivalent: a small school with undersized players (they are the shortest team in the nation) managed to beat a 1-seed with a dominant 7-4 center, Zack Edey. They won by 5 points, 63-58.

I pointed out this similarity in my game preview where I pointed out why the upset would not happen:

Like they say, never say never again.

I think I had a similar blowout score predicted for Virginia over UMBC. Note to self: When I pick the 1-seed by 40+ points, think twice.

2023 NCAA Tournament Schedule • Previews • Odds • Predictions • Results • Final Scores

Click for game preview (linked as completed). Results in green match my prediction.

Championship (April 3)

(4) Connecticut vs. (5) San Diego State   UConn 76-59

Final Four (April 1)

(4) Connecticut vs. (5) Miami     Connecticut 72-59
(5) San Diego State vs. (9) FAU   San Diego State 72-71

Elite Eight (March 25, 26)

(5) San Diego St vs. (6) Creighton   San Diego State 57-56
(3) Kansas State vs. (9) FAU    Florida Atlantic 79-76
(2) Texas vs. (5) Miami         Miami 88-81
(3) Gonzaga vs. (4) UConn      UConn 82-54

Sweet Sixteen (March 23, 24)

South Region

(1) Alabama vs. (5) San Diego State   San Diego State 71-64
(6) Creighton vs. (15) Princeton     Creighton 86-75

East Region

(3) Kansas State vs. (7) Michigan State   Kansas State 98-93 OT
(4) Tennessee vs. (9) Florida Atlantic    Florida Atlantic 62-55

Midwest Region

(1) Houston vs. (5) Miami   Miami 89-75
(2) Texas vs. (3) Xavier    Texas 83-71

West Region

(2) UCLA vs. (3) Gonzaga   Gonzaga 79-76
(4) UConn vs. (8) Arkansas   UConn 88-65

Round of 32 (March 18, 19)

South Region

(1) Alabama vs. (8) Maryland      Alabama 73-51
(3) Baylor vs. (6) Creighton            Creighton 85-76
(5) San Diego St. vs. (13) Furman     San Diego State 75-52
(7) Missouri vs. (15) Princeton       Princeton 78-63

East Region

(2) Marquette vs. (7) Michigan State     Michigan State 69-60
(3) Kansas State vs. (6) Kentucky           Kansas State 75-69
(4) Tennessee vs. (5) Duke                    Tennessee 65-52
(9) FAU vs. (16) Fairleigh Dickinson       Florida Atlantic 78-70

Midwest Region

(1) Houston vs. (8) Auburn      Houston 81-64
(2) Texas vs (10) Penn State     Texas 71-66
(3) Xavier vs. (11) Pittsburgh     Xavier 84-73
(4) Indiana vs. (5) Miami FL      Miami 85-69

West Region

(1) Kansas vs. (8) Arkansas      Arkansas 72-71
(2) UCLA vs. (7) Northwestern    UCLA 68-63
(3) Gonzaga vs. (6) TCU            Gonzaga 84-81
(4) UConn vs. (5) Saint Mary's   UConn 70-55

 

First Round (March 16, 17)

South Region

(1) Alabama vs. (16) Texas A&M CC   Alabama 96-75
(2) Arizona vs. (15) Princeton           Princeton 59-55
(3) Baylor vs. (14) UC Santa Barbara    Baylor 74-56
(4) Virginia vs. (13) Furman                  Furman 68-67
(5) San Diego St. vs (12) Charleston        San Diego State 63-57
(6) Creighton vs. (11) NC State           Creighton 72-63
(7) Missouri vs. (10) Utah State     Missouri 76-65
(8) Maryland vs. (9) West Virginia     Maryland 67-65

East Region

(1) Purdue vs. (16) Fairleigh Dickinson   Fairleigh Dickinson 63-58
(2) Marquette vs. (15) Vermont         Marquette 78-61
(3) Kansas State vs. (14) Montana St    Kansas State 77-65
(4) Tennessee vs. (13) Louisiana     Tennessee 58-55
(5) Duke vs. (12) Oral Roberts     Duke 74-51
(6) Kentucky vs. (11) Providence      Kentucky 61-53
(7) Michigan State vs. (10) USC           Michigan State 72-62
(8) Memphis vs. (9) Florida Atlantic    Florida Atlantic 66-65

Midwest Region

(1) Houston vs. (16) N Kentucky   Houston 63-52
(2) Texas vs. (15) Colgate              Texas 81-61
(3) Xavier vs. (14) Kennesaw State   Xavier 72-67
(4) Indiana vs. (13) Kent State        Indiana 71-60
(5) Miami FL vs. (12) Drake         Miami 63-56
(6) Iowa State vs. (11) Pittsburgh   Pittsburgh 59-41
(7) Texas A&M vs. (10) Penn State   Penn State 76-59
(8) Iowa vs. (9) Auburn          Auburn 83-75

West Region

(1) Kansas vs. (16) Howard     Kansas 96-68
(2) UCLA vs. (15) UNC Asheville   UCLA 86-53
(3) Gonzaga vs. (14) Grand Canyon    Gonzaga 82-70
(4) Connecticut vs. (13) Iona      UConn 87-63
(5) Saint Mary's vs. (12) VCU     Saint Mary's 63-51
(6) TCU vs. (11) Arizona State        TCU 72-70
(7) Northwestern vs. (10) Boise State   Northwestern 75-67
(8) Arkansas vs. (9) Illinois     Arkansas 73-63

 

Mid-week upsets hit Tennessee, UNC, Kentucky, St. Mary's

Here are the week's biggest upsets so far (through February 9) and how they might affect these teams' NCAA seeding, based on Monday's Dance Chance (Feb 6). Listings show record and seed projection prior to the upset

Arkansas 88, Kentucky 73

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   Seed 
 39. Arkansas                 16-7   20-11   SEC    68.0    10  
 40. Kentucky                 16-7   20-11   SEC    66.2    10  

These teams were part of a 6-team SEC logjam in the 10-12 seed range, and Kentucky was supposed to narrowly win this one. Instead the Razorbacks won going away, which should really create some separation. Arkansas should go back to a 9-seed while Kentucky's prospects as a 19-12 team will be precarious.

Wake Forest 92, North Carolina 85

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   Seed 
 34. North Carolina           15-8   22-9    ACC    76.8     9  
 77. Wake Forest              15-9   18-13   ACC     4.2           

North Carolina's woes continue. The Tar Heels will project to 21-10 at best which is not great for the ACC this year. Wake Forest didn't have great odds going in and being 19-12 won't cut it but the win gives them hope that a good tournament run might be enough.

Nevada 77, New Mexico 76

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   Seed
 24. New Mexico               19-4   26-5    MWC    93.2     6  
 35. Nevada                   18-6   23-8    MWC    75.0     9  

A big result in the Mountain West, where five teams are "in" right now but the conference might only get four of them. New Mexico has been our designated leader for a while but this result narrows things up.

San Diego St. 63, Utah St. 61

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   Seed
 29. Utah St.                 19-5   26-5    MWC    85.6     8 
 37. San Diego St.            18-5   22-8    MWC    71.5    10 

Another significant result in the MWC. San Diego State has some tough games ahead so getting this win was key, and probably pulls them even with Utah State, who has winnable games the rest of the way.

Vanderbilt 66, Tennessee 65

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   Seed 
  3. Tennessee                19-4   27-4    SEC    99.9     1  
130. Vanderbilt               11-12  12-19   SEC     1.1         

The upset of the week so far. Vandy hit the jackpot against the Vols, whose aim at a 1-seed takes a big hit. The Commodores' slim odds will increase but it's still going to take a miracle.

Boston College 82, Virginia Tech 76

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   Seed 
 47. Virginia Tech            14-9   21-10   ACC    51.7    12p      
207. Boston College           11-13  12-19   ACC    <0.1         

Virginia Tech was the Last Team In on Monday, and this will drop them out of the seeding projection for sure. Boston College didn't have any real hope before this win, and probably still won't.

Northwestern 69, Ohio St. 63

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   Seed
 45. Ohio St.                 11-12  16-15   B10    57.4    11p
 53. Northwestern             16-7   17-14   B10    44.9       

Ohio State's slide continues unabated, and this loss might drop them from the Last Four In to below the First Four Out, as they will project to a losing record now which won't even get you into the NIT. Northwestern on the other hand might take the Buckeyes' place.

Loyola Marymount 78, Saint Mary's 74 (OT)

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   Seed 
 21. Saint Mary's             21-4   26-5    WCC    94.3     6  
 90. Loyola Marymount         16-9   18-12   WCC     2.9         

This upset in the West Coast Conference is St. Mary's first loss in 13 games. The Gaels are set back a bit in their effort to win the WCC regular season title but they're still a pretty sure thing for March. Loyola Marymount was down to about a 3% chance and won't jump into the seedings just yet, but they've beaten both Gonzaga and St. Mary's which gives them renewed hope of being the league's 2nd at-large bid.

Weekend upsets: Kentucky tops Tennessee, St. John's beats UConn

Some major upsets this weekend, as two projected 1-seeds lost at home to teams that were becoming longshots to make the tournament.

On Saturday Kentucky, whose season was fading fast, rebounded in a major way by beating possibly the best team in the nation on their home court. The Wildcats topped Tennessee 63-56 as an 18-point underdog by the Strength power rating where the Vols were #1.

Then on Sunday UConn continued their slide with a stunning 85-74 home loss to unheralded St. John's. Not long ago the Huskies were the top overall seed in the Dance Chance and were still a 1-seed as of Thursday. But after a 14-0 start Connecticut has lost 4 of 5 games and it's clearly seeping into the psychological arena. UConn was also an 18 point favorite.

It's a big turnaround for Kentucky, who was coming off a home loss to South Carolina and was receiving near-obituaries in the press for their season. Probably that's what spurred them to this major upset win which could turn their season around. Just based on this win the Wildcats, who were down to a 7% chance to make the tournament in our Dance Chance, will become a seeded bubble team at the very least, while Tennessee will drop to at least a 2-seed.

St. John's had even lower tournament odds at just 2.9%. They might not immediately be seeded but their odds will go up to at least 10%, and instead their win-loss projection will be firmly on the "above .500" side. Before Sunday, they were projected to be 16-15 before conference tournaments. So while the Red Storm still have a lot of work to do, they took a big step with today's win. But was it really due to anything they did, or a continuation of UConn's slump?

Tennessee's loss can probably be attributed to Kentucky's realization that their season needed to change, but UConn's loss is probably due to psychological repercussions of their recent slump. St. John's was coming off a 5-game slide and not playing particularly well, and UConn's 3 prior losses were on the road to good teams, so a home loss to the Red Storm was very unexpected. But everyone knew Kentucky was capable of playing great basketball, as they were in most people's top 10 in the pre-season. St. John's wasn't in the top 25.

With UConn and Tennessee both dropping from the 1-line, who will move in? Kansas and Purdue are safe of course, and the next two in line would be #5 UCLA and #6 Houston. But because Kentucky increased their stock with the Tennessee win, #7 Alabama might pass the Cougars and take the 1-seed along with UCLA, as both teams beat the Wildcats. 

2023 week 7 recap: Xmas upsets bring seed change

The slower week ahead of Christmas day was met with some shocking upsets and careless losses. Though there weren't as many games there was still some movement in our projected seeding via the Dance Chance.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(12/18)
  1. Connecticut              13-0   31-0    BE     91.7   +2.4    1    1
  2. Purdue                   12-0   29-2    B10    91.3   +1.7    1    1
  3. Arizona                  12-1   29-2    P12    90.9   +2.0    1    1
  4. Tennessee                10-2   29-2    SEC    90.5   +5.0    1    3

First order of business: UConn sneaks past Purdue to take over as the overall #1 seed. Not surprising given the fact that UConn is favored in every game going forward. But can the Huskies really go unbeaten in the Big East? They really do have a small chance, and face hurdles in Villanova and Xavier this week. The Boilermakers have one non-conference game left before they go all-Big-Ten next week. Arizona's non-conference slate is over; they play at Arizona State on Saturday.

New in the top seed line is Tennessee, up from the 3-line primarily because their 42-point win over Austin Peay upgraded their Strength enough to project the Vols at 29-2 instead of 28-3. Even if that comes true, the bottom line is that conference tournaments can determine a lot about the 1-seeds. If these four teams entered their conference tournaments exactly as shown, only UConn would be guaranteed to remain there. Tennessee plays at Mississippi Wednesday.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(12/18)
  5. Houston                  12-1   30-1    Amer   90.2   +1.7    2    1
  6. UCLA                     11-2   28-3    P12    89.8   +2.0    2    2
  7. Baylor                    9-2   26-5    B12    89.4   +2.0    2    2
  8. Gonzaga                  10-3   28-3    WCC    89.1   +2.0    2    2
  9. Texas                    10-1   27-4    B12    88.7   +0.5    3    2
 10. Alabama                  10-2   26-5    SEC    88.3   +2.4    3    3
 11. Kansas                   11-1   26-5    B12    88.0   +4.2    3    5
 12. Virginia                  8-2   26-3    ACC    87.6   +1.3    3    3

Houston is the team that slips from a 1-seed, even while projected to win out. That's what happens when you're in a non-Major conference. The Cougars have a much better shot at actually winning out from here than any of the 1-seeds, so they probably end up there if they go 30-1. Their American Athletic season begins on Wednesday at Tulsa.

Texas and Kansas both land on the 3-line this week, with the Longhorns dropping from a 2-seed and the Jayhawks moving up from a 5-seed. It looks like they're related phenomenon, as Kansas gains a win and Texas loses one—Kansas is now favored against Texas in one of their two future clashes. Strange, because Texas' 100-72 win over Louisiana was stronger than KU's 68-54 win over Yale. But the bottom line is that these teams are very close in ratings and split the home/away, which is probably accurate. Both dive into the Big Twelve season this week.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(12/18)
 13. Indiana                  10-3   24-7    B10    87.2   +2.4    4    4
 14. Duke                     10-3   26-5    ACC    86.8   +1.7    4    4
 15. Charleston               12-1   30-1    CAA    86.5   +3.5    4    5
 16. Florida Atlantic         11-1   29-2    CUSA   86.1   +2.8    4    5
 17. Illinois                  8-4   23-8    B10    85.7   +1.6    5    4
 18. North Carolina            9-4   24-7    ACC    85.4   +4.6    5    7
 19. Arkansas                 11-1   25-6    SEC    85.0  +14.1    5    8
 20. Kentucky                  8-3   25-6    SEC    84.6   +0.2    5    4
 21. Ohio St.                  8-3   22-9    B10    84.2   +1.6    6    5
 22. UAB                      10-2   28-3    CUSA   83.9   +2.0    6    6
 23. Utah St.                 11-2   28-3    MWC    83.5   -3.2    6    3
 24. Sam Houston St.          10-2   28-2    WAC    83.1   +6.6    6    7

Duke got hit by one of last week's upsets (to Wake Forest) but it didn't set them back in the long run it seems. Meanwhile mid-Majors Charleston (of the Colonial Athletic) and Florida Atlantic (of Conference USA) are still priced to perfection, or nearly so, and both move up to 4-seeds. Can either of them really finish out like this? Probably not but FAU has a much better chance, given that they are #19 in Strength to Charleston's #72, and the Owls have a loss to give. One of their toughest tests—at North Texas—is up next. Charleston also has a very tough test on Saturday vs. Towson.

North Carolina's season has been a mixed bag so far, but they've recovered from their slump and are up to a 5-seed now going into the ACC season. And Arkansas is flying high, up from an 8-seed as their 85-51 win over UNC Asheville impressed our power ratings apparently—they went from 23-8 to 25-6. Meanwhile the upset bug hit Illinois, though losing to 11-1 Missouri isn't necessarily an upset. The Illini drop from a 4-seed to a 5-seed, as does Kentucky. The Wildcats face the Tigers on Wednesday before facing Louisville on Saturday at home, which should be an interesting atmosphere to say the least. Now there's an upset that would make headlines!

Speaking of upsets, Utah State went into last week undefeated with 2 games on their schedule, and ended up going 2-2. First they were picked off by lowly Weber State 75-72, then the Aggies went 2-1 in a tournament, beating SMU and Washington State while losing to SMU 77-74 in between. The result isn't as bad as it could have been; they fall from a 3-seed to a 6-seed and are still favored in every game except one, and still our favorite to win the Mountain West. 

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(12/18)
 25. West Virginia            10-2   23-8    B12    82.8   +7.7    7    8
 26. San Diego St.             9-3   24-6    MWC    81.2   -1.0    7    6
 27. Kent St.                 10-3   28-3    MAC    79.8   +0.5    7    7
 28. New Mexico               12-0   26-4    MWC    78.3   -2.8    7    6
 29. James Madison             9-4   27-4    SB     76.9   -4.6    8    6
 30. Oral Roberts             10-3   26-3    Sum    75.4   +7.3    8    9
 31. Yale                     10-3   24-3    Ivy    74.0  +21.2    8   12
 32. Maryland                  9-3   22-9    B10    72.5   +7.2    8    9
 33. Saint Mary's             10-4   24-6    WCC    71.1   -1.2    9    8
 34. Rutgers                   8-4   22-9    B10    69.6   -4.1    9    8
 35. Colorado                  8-5   18-13   P12    68.2   +8.4    9   10
 36. Marquette                 9-4   23-8    BE     66.7   +0.0    9    9

The rest of the Mountain West's contingent is here, with San Diego State and New Mexico both sliding to 7-seeds for unknown reasons (probably Utah State's losses hurt their SOS). The Lobos are one of the nation's few (three) undefeated teams; they take on Colorado State and Wyoming this week with about a 50/50 chance to stay unbeaten, though they are favored in both games.

The 8-line is filled with minor-conference "winners" who could all be strong enough to get an at-large if they need it. James Madison (Sun Belt) drops from a 6-seed though after losing in double overtime to Coppin State. Yale leaps from a 12-seed to an 8-seed despite their 24-3 projection remaining constant. The Bulldogs' Strength went up a lot as our pre-season component (where Yale was #197) is diminishing rapidly. Both teams—as well as the Summit League's Oral Roberts—are favored in all their remaining games so they'll all have to be near-perfect to remain in at-large territory. James Madison has the toughest test this week when they head to Marshall on Saturday.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(12/18)
 37. Xavier                   10-3   24-7    BE     65.3   +4.1   10   10
 38. Memphis                  10-3   26-5    Amer   63.8   +8.2   10   11
 39. Creighton                 8-6   22-9    BE     62.3  +13.7   10   12
 40. Auburn                   10-2   23-8    SEC    60.9  +10.9   10   12
 41. Iowa                      8-4   22-9    B10    59.4  -18.4   11    7
 42. Arizona St.              11-2   22-9    P12    58.0  -11.5   11    9
 43. Penn St.                  9-3   20-11   B10    56.5   -7.4   11   10
 44. Utah                      9-4   21-10   P12    55.1   -7.5   11   10
 45. Virginia Tech            11-2   24-7    ACC    53.6   -0.6   12   11
 46. N.C. State               11-3   23-8    ACC    52.2  +18.0   12    
 47. Southern Miss            11-2   26-5    SB     50.7   +5.4   12   13
 48. Iona                      9-4   27-4    MAAC   49.3   -7.7   12   11

Creighton finally broke their 6-game losing streak with wins vs. Butler and DePaul, but it gets tougher this week: Seton Hall on Tuesday and UConn—on the road—on Saturday. Would be a great way to bounce back though, right?

When we talk about Xmas upsets, the Iowa loss to Eastern Illinois will be one for the ages. The Panthers were #342 in Strength with Iowa at #21. The Hawkeyes were 31.5 point favorites and lost by 9, four days before Xmas and hours before the huge winter storm that's still covering the nation was moving in. Rarely is there a "trap" game at home but this one was it, how overconfident were the Hawks going in? The result was a fall from a 7-seed to an 11-seed, meaning they're still expected to make it but pretty much a bubble team now, though getting leading scorer Kris Murray back will help going forward. They face fellow 11-seed Penn State on Sunday.

On the 12-line, Virginia Tech was upset by Boston College last week and falls a seed, while Southern Miss was beaten by UNLV but moves up as the loss was expected and accounted for in their 26-5 projection. Joining the seeding is NC State, who was in the First Four out but gained a lot this week. They only beat Louisville so it had to be something else amongst all the data that led to the jump (it looks like they flipped one game in their favor as their pre-season #94 rating fades away).

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(12/18)
 49. Miami FL                 12-1   23-8    ACC    47.8  +16.4   13     
 50. Mississippi St.          11-1   23-8    SEC    46.4   -5.0   13p  12
 51. Bradley                   9-4   25-6    MVC    45.9  +20.1   13   14
 52. Iowa St.                  9-2   17-13   B12    44.5   +0.5   13p  13p
 53. Marshall                 11-2   27-4    SB     43.0   +1.9   13p  14p
 54. UNLV                     11-1   23-7    MWC    41.6   +6.0   13p     
 55. Texas Tech                9-2   18-13   B12    40.1   +3.1        
 56. Nevada                   10-3   21-10   MWC    38.7   -3.9        13p
 57. Boise St.                10-3   21-10   MWC    37.2  -21.1        11
 58. Wisconsin                 9-2   17-13   B10    35.8   -2.6        
 59. Oklahoma St.              8-4   14-17   B12    34.3   +5.7        
 60. Oregon                    7-6   17-14   P12    32.9   -6.9        14p

This week's bubble adds two teams above water, Miami and UNLV. The Hurricanes are now 12-1, the Rebels 11-1, with realistic projections of 23-8 and 23-7. That would put them in position to get at-large bids if they do well in their conference tournaments, otherwise they're still in the danger zone. Meanwhile it's Bradley that improves their lot the most; the Braves might still have to win the Missouri Valley but two strong wins last week improved their at-large potential a lot.

UNLV isn't the only Mountain West team hoping to become the 4th team from that conference to go dancing—Nevada and Boise State are on the bubble but fall to the First Four Out this week. The Wolf Pack had a tepid win over Norfolk State, and the Broncos were worse, losing to Santa Clara 73-58. The rest of the bubble is made up of good Major conference teams stuck with a tough schedule: Texas Tech, Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, and Oregon may struggle to stay above .500 overall but they're good enough that they have a chance to turn things in their favor, hence the bubble locale. The Ducks have had a killer pre-conference schedule with Houston and UConn, plus UCLA already. But losing to Utah Valley at home—another Xmas surprise—dropped them to 7-6, not the best place to be in December if you're hunting an at-large bid.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(12/18)
 62. UC Irvine                 7-5   27-5    BW     30.0  -15.9   14   13
 65. Dayton                    8-5   24-7    A10    25.6  +15.6   14    
 66. UMass Lowell             12-2   29-2    AE     24.2  +12.3   14   14
 72. Liberty                   9-4   26-5    ASun   15.5   +2.2   14    
 73. Saint Louis               8-5   23-8    A10    14.0  -33.2        13
 74. Youngstown St.            9-4   27-4    Horz   12.5   +3.5   15   15
 86. Furman                    9-4   26-5    SC      7.4   -3.1   15   15
 89. Jacksonville              7-3   23-6    ASun    6.7  -10.8        14
110. Montana St.               7-6   23-8    BSky    4.0   -0.5   15   15
136. SIU Edwardsville          9-4   25-6    OVC     3.3   +0.3   15   16p
142. North Carolina Central    6-7   19-8    MEAC    3.1   +0.2   16   16p
145. Grambling St.             6-5   24-6    SWAC    3.0   -0.1   16    
146. Gardner Webb              5-7   19-11   BSth    3.0   +0.2   16p    
152. Colgate                   6-7   23-8    Pat     2.9   -0.7   16p  15
153. High Point                8-4   21-9    BSth    2.8   -0.4        16
170. Southern                  4-9   21-10   SWAC    2.4   -1.0        16
178. Northwestern St.          8-4   23-8    Slnd    2.2    0.0   16p    
181. Texas A&M Corpus Chris    6-6   22-9    Slnd    2.1   -1.0        16p
235. Wagner                    7-4   23-4    NEC     0.7   -0.7   16p  16p

Past the at-large teams to the 1-bid arena, we have Dayton taking over as the Atlantic 10 favorite from St. Louis, yet another victim of the pre-Xmas massacre as the Billikens lost to SIU Edwardsville 69-67 at home. 

In the Atlantic Sun, we now have Liberty as the auto-bid, replacing Jacksonville whose 11-point win over lowly Louisiana Monroe looks like it sapped the Dolphins' Strength a bit.

In the SWAC, despite losing twice last week Grambling State replaces Southern (who lost once), with their rankings so close things could easily change next week. It will probably come down to what should be a competitive conference tournament.

The Big South now shows 5-7 Gardner Webb over 8-4 High Point, another matchup that looks like a close conference tournament will have to decide.

And finally the closest cut of all: Northwestern State barely moves in front of Texas A&M CC, or rather the latter drops beneath the Demons. The two face each other on Saturday for what might be a preview of the Southland tournament final.

2021 NCAA Tournament First Round Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (3) West Virginia vs. (14) Morehead State

All previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule

West Virginia 
Seed: 3
Record: 18-9
Conference: Big 12

vs.

Morehead State Eagles
Seed: 14
Record: 23-7
Conference: Ohio Valley

Date: Friday, March 19
Time: 9:50 pm Eastern
Region: Midwest
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN  
Channel: truTV

 

Two teams from the...Shallow South? Is that a thing? Whatever the opposite of the Deep South is, that's where both these teams are from.

     West Virginia                      Morehead St.

Power Ratings

Strength:          #24             Strength:          #165
Pomeroy:           #27             Pomeroy:           #128
   Offense:  #11                      Offense:  #214
   Defense:  #65                      Defense:  #72
BPI:               #27             BPI:               #154
LRMC:              #14             LRMC:              #106

Other Measures:

Tempo Total/Off:   #114/#176       Tempo Total/Off:   #312/#264
SOS:               #20             SOS:               #240    
Consistency:       #11             Consistency:       #171
Str x Consistency: #9              Str x Consistency: #169

2nd half season:   #24             2nd half season:   #123
Last 6 games:      #43             Last 6 games:      #126
Road Strength:     #15             Road Strength:     #153
Injury Modifier:   #25 (-Tshiebwe) Injury Modifier:   #168

 

The Mountaineers advantage in analytics is pretty clear, as is always the case in a 3 vs. 11-seed contest. They're in or near the top 25 in all the power ratings, with the LRMC putting them at #14. With their extreme consistency (can consistency be extreme?) they're a good pick to go far in the tournament, or at least as far as they should, which would be the Sweet Sixteen by seed.

Morehead State's hope of winning rests on their defense which, unlike their offense, is pretty good—almost as good as West Virginia's. Unfortunately the defense has to tackle WVA's #11 offense. If they can impose their slow tempo on the game they might be able to keep things within striking distance, but there's not much else here to hang their hopes on.

Season overview: West Virginia

• Wins vs. tournament teams (8): =(10)VCU+12, @(12)Georgetown+9, (13)North Texas+12, @(4)Oklahoma St.+3, (6)Texas Tech+1, (3)Kansas+12, @(6)Texas Tech+11, @(3)Texas+2
  
• Losses to tournament teams (9): =(1)Gonzaga-5, @(3)Kansas-14, @(8)Oklahoma-4, (3)Texas-2, (7)Florida-5, (8)Oklahoma-OT, (1)Baylor-OT, (4)Oklahoma St.-5, =(4)Oklahoma St.-3
• Other losses (0): None

Overview: West Virginia faced overall #1 seed Gonzaga early in December and made a game of it, leading at the half and losing by just five points. They also beat VCU, Georgetown, and North Texas in the pre-conference season. Once the Big 12 started it was a murderer's row and the Mountaineers went 5-7 against the conference's tournament teams, also losing to 7-seed Florida along the way. They had a couple of three-game win streaks interrupted by overtime losses to Oklahoma and Baylor, the latter of which seemed to take something out of them as they dropped their last two games to Oklahoma State in close contests.

Mike McBride leads the four Mountaineers in double-digit scoring at 15.4 ppg; he also leads in assists and steals. #2 scorer Derek Culver (14.6) leads with 9.8 rebounds per game. West Virginia doesn't shoot the two very well at all (46.3%) and they're only reasonably good at the 3, but they get a lot of offensive rebounds and are good at avoiding turnovers.

             **************************************************************

Season overview: Morehead St.

• Wins vs. tournament teams (0): None
  
• Losses to tournament teams (2): @(2)Ohio St.-33, @(7)Clemson-15
• Other losses (5): @Kentucky-36, =Richmond-18, @Eastern Kentucky-3, SIU Edwardsville-4, @Belmont-15

Overview: Morehead State's season didn't get off to a glorious start. They lost to Kentucky 81-45 and Richmond 82-64. Their third loss was to Ohio State 77-44, but at least the Buckeyes got a 2-seed. They fell the Eastern Kentucky next to start 1-4. To get some wins, they played Transylvania twice in two days, winning 77-55 and 81-55. No word if Dracula can dunk. They got revenge on Eastern Kentucky before falling to SIU Edwardsville and Clemson. At 4-6, and already 1-2 in conference, their Ohio Valley title hopes looked bleak.

After a long break from December 21 to January 2, though, they went 19-1, their only loss to conference regular season champ Belmont. They beat Belmont in overtime in the last game of the season, then beat them again, 86-71, in the Ohio Valley tournament final, in their best game of the year. The Eagles are led by 6-10 freshman forward John Broome's 13.9 points and 9.0 rebounds. He also gets 1.8 blocks per game, which anchors a solid defense.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: The simplest way to look at this game is: Morehead State has no wins over tournament teams. West Virginia has no losses outside the tournament field.

The Eagles are solid on defense, even if they can't stop the Mountaineer offense it's reasonable that they could slow it down. And that's literally what they do, playing at a very slow pace. The main problems are on offense, where they turn the ball over often and only hit 68% of their free throws. 

Looking at their chart, they have one path to victory: replicate their performance in their win over Belmont that won them the Ohio Valley title. The Eagles upset Louisville in 2011 as a 13-seed, so it's not completely far-fetched.

Vegas Line:

West Virginia by   12 1/2

Power rating: spread

West Virginia by   15.6

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

West Virginia:        89.0% 
Morehead St.:         11.0% 

Recent game performance (last 6): 

West Virginia:        83.3%   
Morehead St.:         16.7%

West Virginia by    9.6 

3-seeds upset 14-seeds 15% of the time historically, so Morehead State at 11% odds isn't a particularly good choice. Both Vegas and Strength consider them a double-digit underdog which makes sense given the results of their games with Ohio State and Clemson.

But narrow the sample size and it's easier for upsets to look reasonable. In this case, narrowing the window to each team's last six games boosts Morehead State's odds to 1 in 6, and the margin falls below double digits.

And if we look just at each team's final game of the season, guess what? Morehead State wins by 10 points! In fact that game beats all but about a dozen of the Mountaineers's outings, so that's Morehead's path to victory: play out of their heads. Easy, right?

Bottom line: We're going with the Mountaineers to survive a scare. How far? Not sure. But if they've recovered from their 3-game mini-slump, they should make the Sweet Sixteen at least.

Final prediction: West Virginia 66, Morehead St. 60

More previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule.

2019 NCAA Tournament First Round Previews, Odds, & Predictions: (2) Michigan vs. (15) Montana

All previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule

Michigan Wolverines
Seed: 2
Record: 28-6
Conference: Big Ten

vs.

Montana Grizzlies
Seed: 15
Record: 26-8
Conference: Big Sky

Date: Thursday, March 21
Time: 9:20 pm Eastern
Location: Des Moines, IA 
Region: West
Channel: TNT

 

Michigan hopes for yet another Final Four run, but unlike the last 4 visits they don't want to finish #2. They start in the same place as last year, though: a first-round game against the Montana Grizzlies.

     Michigan                           Montana

Power Ratings

Strength:          #6              Strength:          #131
Pomeroy:           #5              Pomeroy:           #137
   Offense:  #18                      Offense:  #115
   Defense:  #2                       Defense:  #161
BPI:               #6              BPI:               #120
LRMC:              #6              LRMC:              #113

Other Measures:

Tempo (Pomeroy):   #318            Tempo:             #225
Schedule Strength: #18             Schedule Strength: #265   
Consistency:       #280            Consistency:       #220
Consist. Modifier: #10             Consist. Modifier: #132

2nd half season:   #8              2nd half season:   #136
Last 6 games:      #2              Last 6 games:      #204
Road Strength:     #5              Road Strength:     #117
Injury Modifier:   #7              Injury Modifier:   #153

 

Clearly the Wolverines are more fearsome than the Grizzlies, as their single-digit power rankings outgun Montana's triple-digit consensus. The Grizzlies are fairly decent on offense but they'll be going up against the #2 defense in the country. And on the other side of the court Michigan is still a solid top 25 offense.

The game tempo should be pretty slow as Michigan enforces that on defense and doesn't exactly hurry on offense. The Wolverines do lack consistency, but that's something to consider farther down the line, not against a 15-seed. Michigan's recent play has been stellar, while Montana had a few bad games before winning their last 4 solidly.

Season overview: Michigan

• Wins vs. tournament teams (11): @(6)Villanova+27, (1)North Carolina+17, (3)Purdue+19, (10)Minnesota+2, (11)Ohio St.+16, (5)Wisconsin+9, (6)Maryland+13, @(10)Minnesota+9, @(6)Maryland+7, =(10)Iowa+21, =(10)Minnesota+27
• Losses to tournament teams (5): @(5)Wisconsin-10, @(10)Iowa-15, (2)Michigan St.-7, @(2)Michigan St.-12, =(2)Michigan St.-5
• Other losses (1): @Penn St.-6

Overview: Michigan placed 2nd to Villanova in last year's tournament, and in game three they let it be known that they were going to be a team to be reckoned with as they destroyed the defending champs, 73-46 on Villanova's home court. They beat 1-seed North Carolina and 3-seed Purdue back-to-back en route to a 17-0 start. They slipped up a bit after that, falling to Wisconsin and Iowa, and then Penn State, but they garnered a slew of tourney-team wins in the 8-bid Big Ten. The one they couldn't beat was rival Michigan State, who beat them in Ann Arbot (77-70), East Lansing (75-63), and in Chicago (65-60). Despite the losses to MSU, the flow of Michigan's season looks a lot like the 2013 national runner-up team that lost to Louisville in the finals: a long win streak covering half the season, then 6 losses the rest of the way.

On defense, the Wolverines lock down every shot; they are good against threes, twos, and foes don't get to the line very often. Mostly teams try to move the ball around before throwing up a desperation three. On offense the Wolverines shoot reasonbly well, but don't rebound or get to the line often; their success comes from their extremely low turnover rate. Ignas Brazdeikis (15.1 ppg) leads three double digit scorers. One concern for Michigan's goal of a deep tourney run is that they are 4th from last in bench minutes; it helps to have a deeper team come tournament time, and that could catch up to them sooner or later.

             **************************************************************

Season overview: Montana

• Wins vs. tournament teams (2): (14)Georgia St.+7, (16)North Dakota St.+7
• Losses to tournament teams (1): @(13)UC Irvine-9
• Other losses (7): =Georgia Southern-3, @Creighton-26, @Arizona-19, Portland St.-OT, @Eastern Washington-7, Northern Colorado-2, @Portland St.-12

Overview: Forward Jamar Akoh was the team's leading scorer and rebounder before being lost to injury in February; since then (game 22) the team mostly continued its winning ways, but only in their last four games did they thrive without him. Montana shoots the ball very well (#6 in the nation). Three guards average in double figures, with Ahmaad Rorie (15.1) and Sayeed Pridgett (15.0) leading the way.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: Look for a very slow tempo game, something that could manage to keep the game closer than it should be. Montana's great shooting will be challenged by Michigan's tough-as-nails defense; we wager that Michigan's defense comes out ahead in the end.

The main thing Michigan has to deal with is overconfidence. They got to the championship game last year and they are even better this year, so naturally they will cruise to the Sweet Sixteen, then the Final Four, and beyond, right? If Michigan overlooks the first game, well, that's how 8 2-seeds have lost to 15-seeds over the years. A team like Montana just has to start making its shots and then its too late; you wake up the next morning wondering how it happened.

Conversely, a team that plays in a very weak division is usually in for a world of hurt when playing a top ten team, especially when facing the nation's #2 defense. Montana actually did pretty well last year, losing just 61-47 to the Wolverines.

Vegas Line:

Michigan by   15 1/2

Power rating: spread

Michigan by   18.1

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Michigan:       87.3% 
Montana:        12.7% 

The Strength power rating gives Michigan a slightly larger edge than Vegas, with an 87% chance to win; that's lower than the 94% historical odds for a 2-seed, but our power rating never quite goes as high as the historical returns for a 1- or 2-seed.

Bottom line: Michigan is a prime contender for the Final Four and it's doubtful Montana gets in their way, as the Grizzlies haven't faced a top 100 team since December.

Final prediction: Michigan 74, Montana 57

More previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule.

2018 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Previews, Odds, & Predictions: (2) Purdue vs. (3) Texas Tech

All previews: click here for the full 2018 NCAA tournament schedule

Purdue Boilermakers
Seed: 2
Record: 30-6
Conference: Big Ten

vs.

Texas Tech Red Raiders
Seed: 3
Record: 26-9
Conference: Big 12

Date: Friday, March 23
Time: 9:57 pm Eastern
Location: Boston, MA
Region: East
Channel: TBS

 

Purdue vs. Texas Tech is the only 2 vs. 3-seed matchup in any region. In fact, it's the only matchup that was expected from the beginning: there are no 1-seeds playing 4-seeds either.

     Purdue                             Texas Tech

Power Ratings

Strength:          #3              Strength:          #11
Pomeroy:           #4              Pomeroy:           #13
   Offense:  #2                       Offense:  #47
   Defense:  #32                      Defense:  #4
BPI:               #4              BPI:               #11
LRMC:              #6              LRMC:              #15


Other Rankings:

Consistency:       #208            Consistency:       #158
Schedule Strength: #42             Schedule Strength: #32   
Tempo (Pomeroy):   #229            Tempo:             #249
AP Final Poll:     #11             AP Final Poll:     #14
AP Pre-season:     #20             AP Pre-season:     #NR

SportsRatings Genetic Model:

Model Rank:        #10             Model Rank:        #18

Purdue looks more like a 1-seed from their power ratings, and Tech is a solid 3-seed. When Purdue has the ball, it looks like two 1-seeds fighting in the Final Four get to the final game.  When Texas Tech has the ball, it looks like an opening round 8- vs. 9-seed.

Season overview: Purdue

• Wins vs. tournament teams (7): =(4)Arizona+25, =(10)Butler+15, (15)Lipscomb+32, @(3)Michigan+1, (3)Michigan+4, =(15) Cal-St. Fullerton+26, =(10)Butler+3
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (2): @(3)Michigan+1, (3)Michigan+4
  
• Losses to tournament teams (4): =(3)Tennessee-OT, (5)Ohio St.-1, @(3)Michigan St.-3, =(3)Michigan-9
• Other losses (2): =Western Kentucky-4, @Wisconsin-4

Overview: Purdue looked like a 1-seed when they were 25-2, but even then they had a lack of big wins mainly caused by the Big Ten's dearth of great teams. A 3-game skid dropped them a spot, and their failure to win the Big Ten kept them there. They did beat Michigan twice, giving them two wins over the only other Big Ten team to make it past the first two rounds. Purdue has been more consistent—but not quite as good—in the 2nd half of the year. The Boilermakers have four players in double figures including 7-footer Isaac Haas, scoring 14.9 in just 24 minutes of play. But Haas was injured against CSU Fullerton, leaving a hole in the offense and defense. They still have backup 7-footer Matt Haarms, who scores a lot less but blocks more shots. Carsen Edwards and Vincent Edwards both had 15 against Fullerton. Against Butler, Haarms played fairly well, scoring 7 points and blocking 2 shots; Vincent Edwards led with 20.

             **************************************************************

Season overview: Texas Tech

• Wins vs. tournament teams (13): (7)Nevada+OT, @(1)Kansas+12, (9)Kansas St.+16, (5)West Virginia+1, (10)Texas+OT, @(6)TCU+12, @(9)Kansas St.+19, (10)Oklahoma+10, (6)TCU+4, =(10)Texas+4, =(14)Stephen F. Austin+10,
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (5): (7)Nevada+OT, @(1)Kansas+12, (9)Kansas St.+16, (5)West Virginia+1, @(9)Kansas St.+19
  
• Losses to tournament teams (6): @(8)Seton Hall-10, @(10)Oklahoma-10, @(10)Texas-9, (1)Kansas-2, @(5)West Virginia-10, =(5)West Virginia-3
• Other losses (3): @Iowa St.-18, @Baylor-2, @Oklahoma St.-8

Overview: Texas Tech was rolling along at 22-4 before a 4-game losing streak tripped them up at the end of the year. Three of those losses were to Texas, 1-seed Kansas and 5-seed West Virginia; they also fell to Oklahoma State and dropped their final game to the Mountaineers. In between they beat TCU and Texas. Not the best finish, but generally tough competition playing in the 7-bid Big 12. Senior guard Keenan Evans leads the team with a 17.5 ppg average; he scored 23 in the win over Stephen F. Austin and 22 against Florida.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis:  Isaac Haas is still trying to get back for Purdue, hoping to find a brace that works and is acceptable to the NCAA, but at this point we assume he's out. If we learn otherwise we may adjust our projection, maybe not; he might be no more effective than Haarms anyway. So while Purdue is hobbled, Texas Tech will have their first true road game of the tournament playing in Boston after two games in Dallas, which is quite a ways from Lubbock but still in-state. The absence of Haas will mainly hurt Purdue's offense in its efforts to overcome Tech's defense.

Vegas Line:

Purdue by   1 1/2

Power rating: spread

Purdue by   4.7

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Purdue:        62.9% 
Texas Tech:    37.1% 

Vegas seems to be correcting a bit for Isaac Haas' absence, which the Strength power rating doesn't do. 3-seeds beat 2-seeds about 35% of the time, so our game-comparison odds look about right. Interestingly the BPI gives Purdue a 75% chance, which is odd since they correct (supposedly) for player absences.

Bottom line:  We didn't think either team would be here. We had Florida picked for the Sweet Sixteen, and we changed our minds on Purdue after the Haas injury. Instead, this is the only game between two teams that were expected to be here according to their seeds. Since we originally had Purdue beating Florida here, we would be inclined to advance the Boilermakers, but again, Haas being gone has us stumped. Texas Tech has fallen into a predictable level of play, however, and Purdue is playing a little better than that even without Haas.

Final prediction:  Purdue 69, Texas Tech 68

More previews: click here for the full 2018 NCAA tournament schedule.

2018 NCAA Tournament Second Round Previews, Odds, & Predictions: (4) Auburn vs. (5) Clemson

All previews: click here for the full 2018 NCAA tournament schedule

Auburn Tigers
Seed: 4
Record: 26-7
Conference: SEC

vs.

Clemson Tigers
Seed: 5
Record: 24-9
Conference: ACC

vs.

Date: Sunday, March 18
Time: 7:10 pm Eastern
Location: San Diego, CA 
Region: Midwest
Channel: TBS

 

The Auburn Tigers vs. the Clemson Tigers.

     Auburn                             Clemson

Power Ratings

Strength:          #16             Strength:          #22
Pomeroy:           #17             Pomeroy:           #19
   Offense:  #19                      Offense:  #45
   Defense:  #31                      Defense:  #9
BPI:               #19             BPI:               #18
LRMC:              #17             LRMC:              #24


Other Rankings:

Consistency:       #155            Consistency:       #41
Schedule Strength: #53             Schedule Strength: #31   
Tempo (Pomeroy):   #19             Tempo:             #287
AP Final Poll:     #19             AP Final Poll:     #20
AP Pre-season:     #NR             AP Pre-season:     #NR

SportsRatings Genetic Model:

Model Rank:        #14             Model Rank:        #20

With updated power rating numbers (except the LRMC), 5-seed Clemson is pretty close to 4-seed Auburn, even ahead now in the BPI. Both defenses are better than the corresponding offenses, Auburn having the better offense and Clemson the better D. Neither team is terribly inconsistent, but the and the biggest difference between the two is tempo. Auburn wants to play very fast while Clemson is fairly leisurely. Auburn's fast tempo makes it even more important that they're short-handed right now.

Season overview: Auburn

• Wins vs. tournament teams (7): @(12)Murray St.+4, @(3)Tennessee+10, (7)Arkansas+11, @(8)Missouri+18, (5)Kentucky+10, (9)Alabama+19, =(13)College of Charleston+4
  
• Losses to tournament teams (5): @(9)Alabama-5, (7)Texas A&M-1, @(6)Florida-6, @(7)Arkansas-9, =(9)Alabama-18
• Other losses (2): =Temple-14, @South Carolina-9

Overview: A late-season slump kept Auburn from potentially being as high as a 2-seed. Losing 6 of your last 15 games isn't a collapse by any means, nor is losing 3 of your last 4. It is a concern, though all 3 losses were to tournament teams (6-seed Florida, 7-seed Arkansas, 9-seed Alabama). Mustapha Heron and Bryce Brown both average 16 ppg. Losing a great defensive player in Anfernee McLemore hurts, cutting Auburn down to a squad of 8, and they've played relatively poorly since, including the Charleston win where Mustapha Heron led with 16.

             **************************************************************

Season overview: Clemson

• Wins vs. tournament teams (8): (16)Texas Southern+7, @(5)Ohio St.+14, @(6)Florida+2, (9)North Carolina St.+16, (6)Miami FL+9, (2)North Carolina+4, (9)Florida St.+13, =(12)New Mexico St.+11
  
• Losses to tournament teams (8): @(9)North Carolina St.-1, @(2)North Carolina-8, @(1)Virginia-25, @(9)Florida St.-OT, (2)Duke-9, @(8)Virginia Tech-7, @(11)Syracuse-3, =(1)Virginia-6
• Other losses (1): =Temple-7

Overview: With Clemson, what you see is what you get for the most part; win or lose, they play about the same, as can be seen in their last 8 games. They were consistent to a fault even as they went 4-4 down the stretch. That will happen with good defensive teams who play a slow pace—it evens things out. On offense the Tigers are pretty non-descript but they make their free throws, which can smooth out the rough edges of an offense. With four players in double figures, there's always someone to pick up the slack, too (they had 5 until Donte Grantham tore his ACL). Shelton Mitchell led the Tigers with 23 points against New Mexico State, and Gabe DeVoe added 22.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis:  Since Clemson lost Donte Grantham they've been about 1.2 points worse. Auburn has played 6 games since losing Anfernee McLemore, and since that they've been 5.9 points worse. The difference is that Clemson has had time (14 games) to adjust, while Auburn is down to a very small squad—there's only so much adjusting you can do with 8 players.

Vegas Line:

Auburn by    1 1/2

Power rating: spread

Auburn by    0.8

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Auburn:         52.7% 
Clemson:        47.3% 

Both Vegas and Strength favor Auburn—using figures for the full season, in the case of our power rating. It's a little surprising to see Auburn even favored by 1 1/2, frankly, given their short-handed state and their narrow win over a 13-seed. 4-seeds beat 5-seeds about 56% of the time, so giving about 53% odds to Auburn is fair.

Bottom line:  Given Auburn's poor performance over the last month, we have to go with Clemson in the minor upset.

Final prediction:  Clemson 75, Auburn 70

More previews: click here for the full 2018 NCAA tournament schedule.

UMBC 74, Virginia 54 - What the hell just happened?

Who would have thought that, when a 16-seed finally beat a 1-seed, it would be against the top overall seed?

And the most amazing thing: who would have guessed it would be a 20-point win?

Nobody. The 16 vs 1-seed win had buzzer-beater written all over it...not domination.

UMBC might be this year's Florida Gulf Coast and make an actual run. Theirs is one of the best wins of the entire college basketball season.

Here is their performance chart, prior to the game:

And here it is, after the game:

See a difference?

Here is the new chart for Virginia :(

2015 NCAA Tournament Round of 32 Previews, Odds, & Predictions: (1) Kentucky vs. (8) Cincinnati

All previews: click here for the full 2015 NCAA tournament schedule

Kentucky Wildcats
Seed: 1
Record: 35-0
Conference: SEC

vs.

Cincinnati Bearcats
Seed: 8
Record: 23-10
Conference: American

Date: Saturday, March 20
Time: 2:40 pm Eastern
Location: Louisville, KY 
Region: Midwest
Channel: CBS

 

Kentucky puts their 35-0 record on the line against Cincinnati.

     Kentucky                           Cincinnati

SportsRatings Power Ratings

Strength:          #1              Strength:          #56
Median play:       #1              Median play:       #58
Road/Neutral Rank: #1              Road/Neutral Rank: #44

Other Power Ratings

Sagarin(predictor):#1              Sagarin:           #52
Pomeroy:           #1              Pomeroy:           #34
   Offense:  #5                       Offense:  #76
   Defense:  #2                       Defense:  #18
LRMC:              #1              LRMC:              #43
BPI:               #1              BPI:               #45

Power Rating Derivatives

2nd half/season:   #2              2nd half/season:   #60
Last 6 games:      #4              Last 6 games:      #28
Injury correction: #1              Injury correction: #56
Consistency:       #275            Consistency:       #287
  Deep Run Rank: #1                  Deep Run Rank: #48
  Best Shot:     #1                  Best Shot:     #35
Schedule Strength: #41             Schedule Strength: #99   

Cincinnati's defense is what it's going to have to count on to keep this one close, and the gap between UK's offense isn't great at all. The Bearcat offense is going to need some luck to penetrate the Wildcat defense, but if the shots start to fall, who knows...

Season overview: Kentucky (35-0)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (14): Buffalo+19, =Kansas+32, Providence+20, Texas+12, North Carolina+14, =UCLA+39, @Louisville+8, Mississippi+OT, Georgia+11, @LSU+2, Arkansas+17, @Georgia+8, =Arkansas+15, =Hampton+23
  
• Losses to tournament teams (0): None
  
• Other losses (0): None

Key Info: The chart and the 13 tournament team wins—and the lack of losses, tournament or otherwise—speak for themselves. Not only is it pretty amazing, but it refutes the last possible objection to Kentucky's march to going 40-0—consistency. The team has become perhaps the most consistent team in the country over the last 9 games or so. They dipped to #4 over the last six games, but playing at that high level without variation is something else. It looks exactly like Louisville's chart before they won the tournament two years ago—except without any red in it. What else can we say about Kentucky? They have too many good players to even address, so we'll use tournament game results to highlight them.

The Hampton game was a notch down from their last 10 games—their worst since the 2-point LSU win. Against the Pirates Karl-Anthony Towns led with 21.

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Season overview: Cincinnati (23-10)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (5): San Diego St.+OT, @North Carolina St.+16, SMU+6, @SMU+8, =Purdue+OT
  
• Losses to tournament teams (3): =Mississippi-12, VCU-21, Xavier-2
• Other losses (7): @Nebraska-OT, @Connecticut-6, @Memphis-13, @East Carolina-4, @Temple-16, Tulane-1, @Connecticut-3

Key Info: How focused on defense are the Bearcats? Only one player—Octavius Ellis—averages in double figures, and he's at 10.03125 ppg. Playing at the 11th slowest tempo in the nation doesn't help those numbers, either, but it's clear that defense is a priority for Cincy. That, and the slow tempo, hasn't helped them play more consistent basketball, as their chart is pretty spikey. But following two awful losses—75-59 to Temple, and 50-49 at home to Tulane—the Bearcats found some relative stability, winning five straight before the loss to UConn in the AAC tournament.

The 1-point overtime win over Purdue was made possible by defense, of course—they held the Boilermakers to 15% shooting on 3s and 36% overall. On offense Farad Cobb led with 14.

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Game Analysis:  Teams have been able to hang with Kentucky and keep it close, and Cincinnati is another team that can do so. They play strong defense and play a very slow tempo—a recipe for a low-scoring game in most instances. It's also a good time to strike—Kentucky played their first "lackluster" game in a long time, but still won by 20+ so they might not realize they were slipping a bit. It's a thought.

Vegas Line:

Kentucky by 15 1/2

Power rating: spread

Kentucky by   17.5

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Kentucky:     88.0% 
Cincy:        12.0% 

8-seeds have had decent luck upsetting 1-seeds, winning just under 20% of matchups. We give Cincinnati a much lower chance than that, but still around 1 in 8 according to game comparisons. The line is almost as high as the Strength power rating margin in 17 1/2 points.

Bottom line:  We still think Kentucky is going to win the national title; don't get us wrong. But every eventual national champ is tested along the way with a near-loss or two. This is a good time for it, against a slow-pace team that plays great defense. Kentucky will have one or two scares; this is the first.

Final prediction:  Kentucky 57, Cincinnati 55

More previews: click here for the full 2015 NCAA tournament schedule.

2015 NCAA Tournament Schedule • Previews • Odds • Predictions • Results • Final Scores

National Championship (April 6)

(1) Duke vs. (1) Wisconsin     Duke 68-63

Final Four (April 4)

(1) Kentucky vs. (1) Wisconsin    Wisconsin 71-64

(1) Duke vs. (7) Michigan State   Duke 81-61

Elite Eight (March 28,29)

(1) Kentucky vs. (3) Notre Dame    Kentucky 68-66
(1) Wisconsin vs. (2) Arizona         Wisconsin 85-78

(4) Louisville vs. (7) Michigan State   Michigan State 76-70 OT
(1) Duke vs. (2) Gonzaga                  Duke 66-52

Sweet Sixteen (March 26,27)

(1) Kentucky vs. (5) West Virginia       Kentucky 78-39
(3) Notre Dame vs. (7) Wichita State   Notre Dame 81-70

(1) Wisconsin vs. (4) North Carolina     Wisconsin 79-72
(2) Arizona vs. (6) Xavier                     Arizona 68-60

(3) Oklahoma vs. (7) Michigan State   Michigan State 62-58
(4) Louisville vs. (8) NC State           Louisville 75-65

(1) Duke vs. (5) Utah                Duke 63-57
(2) Gonzaga vs. (11) UCLA      Gonzaga 74-62

Round of 32 (March 21,22)

Midwest Region

(1) Kentucky vs. (8) Cincinnati    Kentucky 64-51
(2) Kansas vs. (7) Wichita State    Wichita State 78-65
(3) Notre Dame vs. (6) Butler      Notre Dame 67-64 OT
(4) Maryland vs. (5) West Virginia   West Virginia 69-59

West Region

(1) Wisconsin vs. (8) Oregon     Wisconsin 72-65
(2) Arizona vs. (10) Ohio State        Arizona 73-58
(4) North Carolina vs. (5) Arkansas   North Carolina 87-78
(6) Xavier vs. (14) Georgia State     Xavier 75-67

East Region

(1) Villanova vs. (8) NC State          NC State 71-68
(2) Virginia vs. (7) Michigan State    Michigan State 60-54
(3) Oklahoma vs. (11) Dayton          Oklahoma 72-66
(4) Louisville vs. (5) Northern Iowa    Louisville 66-53

South

(1) Duke vs. (8) San Diego State     Duke 68-49
(2) Gonzaga vs. (7) Iowa               Gonzaga 87-68
(4) Georgetown vs. (5) Utah         Utah 75-64
(11) UCLA vs. (14) UAB                 UCLA 92-75

 

Round of 64 (March 19,20)

Midwest Region

(1) Kentucky vs. (16) Hampton          Kentucky 79-56
(2) Kansas vs. (15) New Mexico State     Kansas 75-56
(3) Notre Dame vs. (14) Northeastern     Notre Dame 69-65
(4) Maryland vs. (13) Valparaiso         Maryland 65-62
(5) West Virginia vs. (12) Buffalo       West Virginia 68-62
(6) Butler vs. (11) Texas                  Butler 56-48
(7) Wichita State vs. (10) Indiana   Wichita State 81-76
(8) Cincinnati vs. (9) Purdue         Cincinnati 66-65

West Region

(1) Wisconsin vs. (16) Coastal Carolina    Wisconsin 86-72
(2) Arizona vs. (15) Texas Southern     Arizona 93-72
(3) Baylor vs. (14) Georgia State        Georgia State 57-56
(4) North Carolina vs. (13) Harvard    North Carolina 67-65
(5) Arkansas vs. (12) Wofford          Arkansas 56-53
(6) Xavier vs. (11) Mississippi         Xavier 76-57
(7) VCU vs. (10) Ohio State           Ohio State 75-72
(8) Oregon vs. (9) Oklahoma State    Oregon 79-73

East Region

(1) Villanova vs. (16) Lafayette    Villanova 93-52
(2) Virginia vs. (15) Belmont       Virginia 79-67
(3) Oklahoma vs. (14) Albany      Oklahoma 69-60
(4) Louisville vs. (13) UC Irvine      Louisville 57-55
(5) Northern Iowa vs. (12) Wyoming    Northern Iowa 71-54
(6) Providence vs. (11) Dayton           Dayton 66-53
(7) Michigan State vs. (10) Georgia    Michigan State 70-63
(8) North Carolina State vs. (9) LSU   NC State 66-65

South Region

(1) Duke vs. (16) Robert Morris          Duke 85-56
(2) Gonzaga vs. (15) N. Dakota State    Gonzaga 86-76
(3) Iowa State vs. (14) UAB                    UAB 60-59
(4) Georgetown vs. (13) E. Washington   Georgetown 84-74
(5) Utah vs. (12) Stephen F. Austin         Utah 57-50
(6) SMU vs. (11) UCLA                          UCLA 60-59
(7) Iowa vs. (10) Davidson                  Iowa 83-52
(8) San Diego State vs. (9) St. John's   San Diego State 76-64

Previews will be linked as they are completed.

'First Four' Round (March 17, 18)

(16) Manhattan vs. (16) Hampton     Hampton 74-64
(11) BYU vs. (11) Mississippi            Mississippi 94-90
(11) Boise State vs. (11) Dayton       Dayton 56-55
(16) North Florida vs. (16) Robert Morris    Robert Morris 81-77

Iona joins Murray State in upset pile; Wofford escapes

Murray State (25-5) was the first big upset victim in the conference tournaments and yesterday Iona (26-8) joined them as the 2nd. Both teams had great seasons but probably not good enough to make the NCAA field as at-large bids. Meanwhile Wofford (26-6) dodged a bullet to gain an automatic bid.

Here's how these teams ranked in the overall picture before yesterday's action:

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
58	12	Iona	Metro Atl	26-7	17-3	49	93	-8.5	31.6	+1
59		Richmond	Atlantic 10	19-12	12-6	54	63	-4.5	30.6
60		Louisiana Tech	C-USA	23-7	15-3	53	82	-6.5	30.0
61	13	Buffalo	MAC	21-9	12-6	30	61	-7.0	29.4	-1
62		Valparaiso	Horizon	24-5	13-3	59	71	-8.0	26.5
63	13	Wofford	Southern	25-6	16-2	48	114	-3.0	23.5
64		Murray St.	Ohio Valley	25-5	16-0	67	81	-6.0	22.7

Given that the bubble bursts at position #47, Iona was the 10th team out before their loss (really, the 11th but Syracuse is ahead of them an ineligible). But the Gaels lost 79-69 to the 19-13 Manhattan Jaspers, who are #163 in the Dance Chance. The Jaspers will probably get a 16-seed, which means a number of teams will get a seeding upgrade due to the result.

One beneficiary might be Wofford, who turned back an upset bid from 11-22 Furman, 67-64. Had the Paladins—ranked #308—prevailed, they too would have been a 16-seed and the lowest-ranked team in the field. Instead, the Terriers are in play for the 12-seed that Iona gave up.

Iona will probably drop to around where Murray State is. The racers were 16-0 in conference but their #67 RPI is a drawback, as is their -6.0 Wins Composite which shows that they didn't beat many good teams. The Gaels are even worst there, -8.5 even before another bad loss, but their #49 RPI is good enough to garner a 2nd look. However, after their loss, that fell to around #53.

That's the conundrum that 1-bid leagues face. Even if their best team plays well enough to be considered for an at-large bid, a loss in their conference championship is usually enough to drop them farther back in the bubble. So the only way to be worthy of an at-large bid...is to win the conference tournament.

That's the position that Old Dominion and Stephen F. Austin find themselves in right now:

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
47	12	Mississippi	SEC	20-11	11-7	51	46	-2.0	52.5
48		Indiana	Big Ten	19-12	9-9	58	38	3.0	48.8
49	12	Stephen F. Austin	Southland	24-4	17-1	44	55	-1.0	48.2
50		Tulsa	American	21-8	14-4	47	79	-2.5	47.1
51		UCLA	Pac-12	19-12	11-7	52	54	-3.0	45.9
52		Miami FL	ACC	20-11	10-8	63	40	-2.5	44.4
53	12	Old Dominion	C-USA	24-6	13-5	36	67	-3.0	44.1
54		Illinois	Big Ten	19-12	9-9	62	30	-1.0	43.0

Ole Miss is our last team in, and Indiana is first team out. Stephen F. Austin is currently 2nd team out, and with two wins in the Southland tournament, they would probably be above 50% for an at-large bid that they wouldn't need as tourney champs. But if they lose, that would knock them back into the First or Second Four Out. The same goes for Old Dominion, who will play three games if they reach the C-USA final. Three more wins would likely put the Monarchs above 50% for an at-large bid, but two wins and a loss would leave them roughly where they started, above 6 teams out.

The teams above have a much better at-large chance than Murray State and Iona. Those two never quite had the résumé despite their great conference records. But S.F. Austin's RPI is 44, and Old Dominion's is a stellar #36. Buffalo from the MAC is #30! Those are numbers that will make the Committee take a 2nd look, but ultimately it's pretty rare when they give a break to one of these teams if they don't have some good wins. Stephen F. Austin's relative lack of bad losses helps, but Old Dominion has some good wins (LSU, Richmond, VCU) to give them hope.

But in the end the only way to guarantee your spot is to win your conference tournament. Iona and Murray State blew their chance to score a knockout, and now they've "left it to the judges," who by and large aren't very sympatheic to their cause.

1/19 Dance Chance: Do Terps have a shot at top seed?

Here is the latest Dance Chance (click to see full breakdown) which contains a number of surprises, the least of which is Maryland working their way to a top seed.

There's a pretty broad consensus regarding the other three top seeds. Kentucky is back as the top overall seed after crushing Missouri 86-37 and Alabama 70-48; Virginia remained undefeated with two easy ACC wins; and Villanova boosted their record to 17-1. All three are near-locks for the tournament at 99.9% on the Dance Chance.

The last number one seed, per most bracketologists, is up for grabs after Duke's loss to Miami last week dropped them to a 2. But our formula is pretty much alone in giving it to Maryland; the Terps beat Michigan State on Saturday to put them at 17-2 and at 5-1, in the Big Ten lead. Their Wins Composite is strong, and their RPI is good, but their Strength ranking of #23 suggests it will be hard to end up a top seed—particularly with Wisconsin close behind at a 2-seed and favored to win the conference tournament.

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
1	1	Kentucky	SEC	17-0	4-0	1	1	15.5	99.9
2	1	Virginia	ACC	17-0	5-0	2	2	13.0	99.9
3	1	Villanova	Big East	17-1	4-1	5	9	10.0	99.9
4	1	Maryland	Big Ten	17-2	5-1	13	23	8.5	95.3	+1
5	2	Arizona	Pac-12	16-2	4-1	6	10	6.0	94.5	+1
6	2	Wisconsin	Big Ten	16-2	4-1	9	5	5.5	94.1
7	2	Duke	ACC	15-2	3-2	8	4	8.5	93.6	-1
8	2	Kansas	Big 12	14-3	3-1	3	17	10.0	92.6
9	3	Gonzaga	West Coast	17-1	7-0	7	3	8.0	88.2
10	3	North Carolina	ACC	14-4	4-1	12	6	5.5	88.1
11	3	Notre Dame	ACC	17-2	5-1	38	15	6.5	86.4	+1
12	3	Utah	Pac-12	13-3	4-1	11	8	5.0	86.0	-1

Utah might have claimed a top seed had they not run into Arizona on Saturday. The Wildcats dominated the Utes 69-51, which knocked Utah to the low 3-seed and elevated Arizona to the top 2-seed. Kansas is the final 2-seed despite their loss to Iowa State; they remain #3 in the RPI and beat OK State earlier in the week.

Gonzaga continues to win and move up, and the Zags have now reached the top 3-seed. Many people have them a 1-seed already, but as a member of the weak West Coast conference that may be a bit premature. Any slipup by the Bulldogs will hurt them a lot, and with the WCC a possible 1-bid league there aren't many more chances to improve their résumé. In other words, they're priced to perfection as a 1-seed, but if they keep winning they'll probably get there in the Dance Chance. Formula systems have trouble dealing with teams like Gonzaga; last year Wichita State was a 1-seed in the Dance Chance, but Gonzaga in 2013 finished a 2-seed. Rounding out the three-seeds are ACC members North Carolina and Notre Dame, as the 17-2 Irish jump a notch.

In the 4-6 seeds, there's a lot of Big Twelve. 4-seed Iowa State can't move up despite the Kansas win since they lost to 6-seed Baylor three nights earlier. Before that, they beat 4-seed West Virginia, who split with 5-seeds Oklahoma (win) and Texas (loss) last week. The Longhorns moved up 2 lines to a 5-seed with the win, while the Sooners moved up a line as well after beating Oklahoma State on Saturday.

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
13	4	Iowa St.	Big 12	13-3	3-1	15	16	7.5	84.6
14	4	West Virginia	Big 12	15-3	3-2	16	13	4.5	84.1
15	4	Butler	Big East	13-6	3-3	14	20	8.0	80.4	+1
16	4	VCU	Atlantic 10	15-3	5-0	4	22	5.0	80.4	+1
17	5	Louisville	ACC	15-3	3-2	29	11	4.0	79.8	-1
18	5	Oklahoma	Big 12	12-5	3-2	24	12	8.0	79.1	+1
19	5	Texas	Big 12	13-4	2-2	22	14	3.5	75.5	+2
20	5	Wichita St.	MVC	15-2	6-0	10	21	4.5	73.7	+1
21	6	Baylor	Big 12	13-4	2-3	18	18	2.0	72.9
22	6	Seton Hall	Big East	13-4	3-2	17	41	3.5	72.2	-1
23	6	Providence	Big East	14-5	4-2	23	44	3.5	71.9	-1
24	6	Stanford	Pac-12	13-4	4-1	26	38	2.5	71.5	+2

There's also a lot of Big East, with Butler leading the way, up a seed despite splitting with Seton Hall and Georgetown. Seton Hall dropped the overtime game with the Bulldogs and are down to a 6-seed, and Providence too falls as they lost to St. John's.

This region also contains two non-Major conference leaders, VCU and Wichita State; both are up a notch at 15-3 and 15-2 respectively, and undefeated in the Atlantic 10 and Missouri Valley. Both are top 10 in RPI and good enough in Strength to foresee that they could avoid upsets and rise even higher. Meanwhile Louisville drops to their lowest forecasted seed of the year at 5 after their home loss to Duke, and Stanford is up two rungs to a 6-seed after beating Cal and UConn last week.

What a difference a week makes: last week Arkansas was a 3-seed in the Dance Chance and Iowa was holding on as a 10-seed—now they're neck-and-neck for the top 7-seed. The Razorbacks plummeted with two SEC losses—to Tennessee and Mississippi, the latter at home—and are now 2-2 in conference play. The Hawkeyes beat Minnesota and Ohio State, knocking the Buckeyes down to a 9.

Two other big movers follow: Georgetown (beat DePaul and Butler) and Indiana (beat Penn State and Illinois) are both up two slots. They push past four teams that drop a notch: NC State, Dayton, Michigan State, and Oklahoma State. Each of those teams lost last week except Dayton, who just got caught in the wrong place on the chart; they're in good shape in the Atlantic 10 at 15-2 (5-0).

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
25	7	Arkansas	SEC	13-4	2-2	31	32	5.0	70.4	-4
26	7	Iowa	Big Ten	13-5	4-1	43	26	3.0	68.5	+3
27	7	Georgetown	Big East	12-5	4-2	28	40	3.5	67.9	+2
28	7	Indiana	Big Ten	14-4	4-1	44	42	3.5	67.6	+2
29	8	North Carolina St.	ACC	13-6	4-2	36	33	2.5	66.4	-1
30	8	Dayton	Atlantic 10	15-2	5-0	25	46	2.5	66.3	-1
31	8	Michigan St.	Big Ten	12-6	3-2	37	19	0.5	64.3	-1
32	8	Oklahoma St.	Big 12	11-5	2-3	33	29	3.5	63.6	-2
33	9	Georgia	SEC	11-5	2-2	27	35	1.0	62.4	+2
34	9	SMU	American	13-4	5-1	20	37	1.0	62.1
35	9	Ohio St.	Big Ten	14-5	3-3	58	7	0.0	62.0	-1
36	9	Xavier	Big East	12-6	3-3	34	24	-0.5	61.8
37	10	Northern Iowa	MVC	16-2	5-1	21	45	2.0	61.6
38	10	San Diego St.	Mtn West	13-4	4-1	19	47	2.0	60.0	+2
39	10	Colorado St.	Mtn West	16-2	4-2	35	53	-1.0	55.7	+1
40	10	St. John's	Big East	11-5	1-4	40	49	3.5	54.7

Georgia moves up from 11- to 9- with wins over Vandy and Florida even their SEC record. And in the Mountain West, both San Diego State and Colorado State are up to 10-seeds after notching two conference wins each.

The Bubble: SEC has the most to gain, lose

While Miami jumps into the brackets as an 11-seed after beating Duke (and losing to Notre Dame), another ACC team, Syracuse, plummets from 8- to 11- after edging Wake Forest in overtime and falling to Clemson. But the SEC has the most teams in the mix. LSU lost to Texas A&M and falls from a 10-seed, while the Aggies move into the Play-In area as a result. Just below the waterline we find Alabama and Mississippi; the Tide are out after losing twice last week, to South Carolina and (badly) to Kentucky. Ole Miss lost to LSU but beat Arkansas and that was enough to put them right on the cusp of a bid. Further down, Florida had a 3-game winning streak ended by Georgia but is high enough in Strength that there's still hope, and they are 3-1 in conference play. Tennessee won twice last week and their résumé is similar to Florida's (without the bad FSU loss), but their Strength doesn't portend an upward move; we shall see.

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
41	11	Miami FL	ACC	12-5	2-2	55	34	0.0	54.7	+
42	11	LSU	SEC	13-4	2-2	48	71	3.0	54.4	-1
43	11	Syracuse	ACC	13-5	4-1	57	50	-1.5	53.7	-3
44	11	Washington	Pac-12	13-4	2-3	49	59	1.0	53.3	+
45	11	Texas A&M	SEC	11-5	2-2	39	58	0.0	52.8	+
46	12	George Washington	Atlantic 10	14-4	4-1	41	54	1.5	52.7	-1
47	12	Cincinnati	American	12-5	3-2	32	48	3.5	52.7	-1
48		Alabama	SEC	11-5	2-2	53	55	0.0	49.5	-
49		Mississippi	SEC	11-6	2-2	47	43	-3.0	49.3
50	12	Old Dominion	C-USA	15-2	4-1	30	51	1.5	47.3
51		Davidson	Atlantic 10	11-4	3-2	51	30	0.0	47.0	-
52		Florida	SEC	10-7	3-1	70	25	-3.5	45.8
53		Tulsa	American	12-4	5-0	42	76	-1.0	44.4
54		Illinois	Big Ten	12-7	2-4	64	36	-2.0	44.0	-
55		Tennessee	SEC	11-5	3-1	52	92	0.0	44.0
56		UCLA	Pac-12	11-7	3-2	65	60	-0.5	42.7
57		BYU	West Coast	13-6	5-3	46	28	-2.5	41.5
58		Saint Mary's	West Coast	14-3	7-0	62	64	-1.0	41.1

Two Pac-12 bubble teams had a recent resurgence. Washington was on the skids after four straight losses, but they beat Oregon State and topped Oregon Sunday night and that moved them back into the bracket in the Play-in line. Meanwhile UCLA beat USC for their third straight win. The Bruins are still just 11-7 and their RPI, Strength, and Wins Composite are all underwater, but two weeks ago they were 8-7 and 0-2 in conference play. Both Wash and UCLA may be long-term bubble teams that will need a strong tournament performance to get in.

The other Play-in contest would be George Washington vs. Cincinnati; both teams fell from an 11-seed last week. Cincy lost to Memphis, while the Colonials RPI and Win Composite slipped despite two wins. Another Atlantic 10 team, Davidson, fell out of the brackets after a loss to Richmond. Only the true Major conferences have much leeway with conference losses.

Speaking of non-Major conferences, the West Coast could be a 1-bid league (Gonzaga), or they might have three bids if BYU and St. Mary's come through. So far the Cougars are struggling at 5-3 in conference play and 13-6 overall, while the Gaels are 14-3 and 7-0. St. Mary's beat BYU on Saturday, 82-77, but the Strength ratings give the Cougars the better chance to make the Big Dance. As it stands now they're neck-and-neck, with BYU's tougher schedule making things even.

Holy Blowouts: Louisville, Arizona, San Diego State roll in conference tourneys

Though one big favorite—Villanova—fell in  conference tournament action, other top teams rolled to huge victories.

Arizona wasted little time with Utah, beating the Utes 71-39. Utah was hoping for an at-large bid and got a boost by beating Washington yesterday, but losing by 32 doesn't help their cause. Arizona is looking at a 1-seed and may have sealed it with the win. The Wildcats won the first half 34-13 and still won the 2nd half by 9 points.

San Diego State did even better against Utah State, 73-39, including a 36-15 first half. Unlike Utah, the Aggies had no real shot at making the field without a tournament title. But if you add BYU's loss to Gonzaga yesterday—which, combined with the ACL injury to starting guard Kyle Collinsworth, might keep the Cougars out of the Dance—the state of Utah has had a bad couple of days basketball-wise.

But neither of those qualifies as the worst beatdown. That prize went to Louisville, currently #1 in our Strength power rating. The Cardinals utterly destroyed Rutgers, 92-31; that's one point away from tripling the score. The first half was an embarrassing 58-16, and they still more than doubled the Scarlet Knight's score in the 2nd half, 34-15. Louisville had five players in double figures; Rutgers had just three players who made more than a single field goal.

Amazingly, Rutgers led early, 7-6. But from there the Cardinals went on a 20-3 run, and added a 19-0 run to close out the first half.