The Dance Chance is a projected NCAA tournament seeding. Every team is given odds for receiving an at-large bid.
The Dance Chance uses the Strength Power Rating (with pre-season bias phased out by mid-season) and simulates the rest of the season with an idealized forecast (each game is projected for a winner and a loser; no Monte Carlo simulation is conducted). Seeding formula applies a slightly modified version of the Combined Power Rating to the simulated season's outcome.
Locks: A 99.9% rating is considered a "lock" but the rating might dip below "lock" status in the future. A 100% rating, however, will only occur when a team's odds cannot dip below 100%. Therefore, you won't see any teams at 100% until very late in the season. The same logic applies to a "<0.1" rating vs. an actual 0.0 rating, which cannot change regardless of future wins.
Teams with a * after their name are ineligible; they will have odds listed but won't be seeded. Teams in bold are projected conference champs.
Dance Chance through games of Selection Sunday
Rank Team Rec Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Actual 1. Kansas 27-7 B12 100.0 0.0 1 1 2. Texas 26-8 B12 100.0 0.0 1 2 3. Purdue 29-5 B10 100.0 0.0 1 1 4. Alabama 29-5 SEC 100.0 0.0 1 1 5. Gonzaga 28-5 WCC 100.0 0.0 2 3 6. UCLA 29-5 P12 100.0 0.0 2 2 7. Houston 31-3 Amer 100.0 0.0 2 1 8. Kansas St. 23-9 B12 100.0 0.0 2 3 9. Baylor 22-10 B12 100.0 0.0 3 3 10. Arizona 28-6 P12 100.0 0.0 3 2 11. Marquette 28-6 BE 100.0 0.0 3 2 12. Tennessee 23-10 SEC 100.0 0.0 3 4 13. Connecticut 25-8 BE 100.0 0.0 4 4 14. Indiana 22-11 B10 100.0 0.0 4 4 15. TCU 21-12 B12 100.0 0.0 4 6 16. Iowa St. 19-13 B12 100.0 0.0 4 6 17. Duke 26-8 ACC 100.0 +0.1 5 5 18. Xavier 25-9 BE 100.0 +0.1 5 3 19. Virginia 25-7 ACC 100.0 0.0 5 4 20. San Diego St. 27-6 MWC 100.0 +0.1 5 5 21. Florida Atlantic 31-3 CUSA 100.0 +0.1 6 9 22. Saint Mary's 26-7 WCC 100.0 +0.1 6 5 23. Northwestern 21-11 B10 99.9 0.0 6 7 24. Illinois 20-12 B10 99.9 +2.5 6 9 25. West Virginia 19-14 B12 97.9 -1.7 7 9 26. Maryland 21-12 B10 95.7 +2.6 7 8 27. Rutgers 19-14 B10 93.6 +2.6 7 xx 28. Texas A&M 25-9 SEC 91.5 -3.8 7 7 29. Penn St. 22-13 B10 89.4 +11.0 8 10 30. Memphis 26-8 Amer 87.2 +21.5 8 8 31. Creighton 21-12 BE 85.1 -3.8 8 6 32. Miami FL 25-7 ACC 83.0 -3.9 8 5 33. Michigan St. 19-12 B10 80.9 -3.9 9 7 34. Iowa 19-13 B10 78.7 +2.4 9 8 35. Utah St. 26-8 MWC 76.6 -6.0 9 10 36. Kentucky 21-11 SEC 74.5 +0.3 9 6 37. Missouri 24-9 SEC 72.3 -8.2 10 7 38. Arkansas 20-13 SEC 70.2 -1.8 10 8 39. Boise St. 24-9 MWC 68.1 -1.9 10 10 40. Auburn 20-12 SEC 66.0 -1.9 10 9 41. N.C. State 23-10 ACC 63.8 +2.3 11 11 42. USC 22-10 P12 61.7 +4.4 11 10 43. Oral Roberts 30-4 Sum 59.6 +0.2 11 12 44. Oklahoma St. 18-15 B12 57.4 -6.2 11p xx 45. Providence 21-11 BE 55.3 +2.3 11p 11 46. Nevada 22-10 MWC 53.2 -2.0 12p 11p 47. Mississippi St. 21-12 SEC 51.1 +0.1 12p 11p 48. North Carolina 20-13 ACC 48.9 +0.1 49. Oregon 19-14 P12 46.8 +6.4 50. New Mexico 22-11 MWC 44.7 +2.2 51. Clemson 23-10 ACC 42.6 +4.3 52. Pittsburgh 22-11 ACC 40.4 +4.3 xx 11p 53. Arizona St. 22-12 P12 38.3 +6.4 xx 11p 54. Charleston 31-3 CAA 36.2 +2.1 12 12 55. Wisconsin 17-14 B10 34.0 -2.7 56. Drake 27-7 MVC 31.9 +4.2 12 12 57. Sam Houston St. 25-7 WAC 29.8 +4.2 58. North Texas 26-7 CUSA 27.7 +4.2 59. Kent St. 28-6 MAC 25.5 +6.3 12 13 60. UAB 25-9 CUSA 23.4 -6.4 61. VCU 27-7 A10 21.3 +12.6 13 12 62. Michigan 17-15 B10 19.1 -0.2 63. Utah Valley 25-8 WAC 17.0 +4.1 64. Virginia Tech 19-14 ACC 14.9 +4.1 65. Cincinnati 21-12 Amer 12.8 -4.4 66. Vanderbilt 20-14 SEC 10.6 -4.4 67. UCF 18-14 Amer 8.5 +8.3 68. Bradley 25-9 MVC 6.4 +4.0 69. Liberty 26-8 ASun 4.3 +4.0 70. Wake Forest 19-14 ACC 2.1 +1.9 71. Yale 21-8 Ivy 0.1 -0.1 72. Santa Clara 23-9 WCC <0.1 -0.2 73. Iona 27-7 MAAC <0.1 -0.2 13 13 74. Marshall 24-8 SB <0.1 -0.2 75. Dayton 22-12 A10 <0.1 -0.2 76. Southern Miss 25-7 SB <0.1 -0.2 77. Toledo 27-7 MAC <0.1 -0.2 78. UNLV 19-13 MWC <0.1 -0.2 79. Texas Tech 16-16 B12 <0.1 -0.2 80. Louisiana 26-7 SB <0.1 -0.1 13 13 81. Furman 27-7 SC <0.1 -0.1 13 13 82. Utah 17-15 P12 <0.1 -0.2 83. James Madison 22-11 SB <0.1 -0.1 84. Hofstra 24-9 CAA <0.1 -0.1 85. Loyola Marymount 19-12 WCC <0.1 -0.1 86. Washington St. 17-16 P12 <0.1 -4.5 87. St. John's 18-15 BE <0.1 -0.2 88. Colorado 17-16 P12 <0.1 -6.6 89. San Jose St. 20-13 MWC <0.1 -0.1 90. Indiana St. 22-12 MVC <0.1 -0.1 91. Saint Louis 21-12 A10 <0.1 -0.1 92. UC Irvine 23-11 BW <0.1 -0.1 93. Grand Canyon 24-11 WAC <0.1 0.0 14 14 94. Seton Hall 17-15 BE <0.1 -0.2 95. Southern Utah 22-12 WAC <0.1 -0.1 96. Villanova 17-16 BE <0.1 -0.2 97. San Francisco 20-14 WCC <0.1 -0.1 98. Tulane 20-11 Amer <0.1 -0.1 99. Oklahoma 15-17 B12 0.0 --- 100. Ohio St. 16-19 B10 0.0 --- 101. Akron 22-11 MAC 0.0 --- 102. BYU 19-15 WCC 0.0 --- 103. Montana St. 25-9 BSky 0.0 --- 14 14 104. Southern Illinois 23-10 MVC 0.0 --- 105. UC Santa Barbara 27-7 BW 0.0 --- 14 14 106. Princeton 21-8 Ivy 0.0 --- 14 15 107. Belmont 21-11 MVC 0.0 --- 108. Florida 16-16 SEC 0.0 --- 109. Colgate 26-8 Pat 0.0 --- 15 15 110. Charlotte 18-14 CUSA 0.0 --- 111. UNC Greensboro 20-12 SC 0.0 --- 112. UC Riverside 22-12 BW 0.0 --- 113. Kennesaw St. 26-8 ASun 0.0 --- 15 14 114. Vermont 23-10 AE 0.0 --- 15 15 115. Troy 20-13 SB 0.0 --- 116. Youngstown St. 24-9 Horz 0.0 --- 117. Duquesne 20-12 A10 0.0 --- 118. Eastern Washington 22-10 BSky 0.0 --- 119. Seattle 20-12 WAC 0.0 --- 120. Hawaii 22-11 BW 0.0 --- 121. Cal St. Fullerton 20-13 BW 0.0 --- 122. Fordham 25-8 A10 0.0 --- 123. Nebraska 16-16 B10 0.0 --- 124. Middle Tennessee 19-14 CUSA 0.0 --- 125. Wichita St. 17-15 Amer 0.0 --- 126. George Mason 20-13 A10 0.0 --- 127. Samford 21-11 SC 0.0 --- 128. UMass Lowell 26-8 AE 0.0 --- 129. Ohio 19-14 MAC 0.0 --- 130. UNC Asheville 27-7 BSth 0.0 --- 15 15 131. Stephen F. Austin 19-13 WAC 0.0 --- 132. South Dakota St. 19-13 Sum 0.0 --- 133. Syracuse 17-15 ACC 0.0 --- 134. UNC Wilmington 24-10 CAA 0.0 --- 135. Ball St. 20-12 MAC 0.0 --- 136. Cornell 17-11 Ivy 0.0 --- 137. Old Dominion 19-12 SB 0.0 --- 138. Towson 21-12 CAA 0.0 --- 139. Lipscomb 20-13 ASun 0.0 --- 140. Eastern Kentucky 20-13 ASun 0.0 --- 141. South Alabama 19-16 SB 0.0 --- 142. Stanford 14-19 P12 0.0 --- 143. Grambling St. 24-9 SWAC 0.0 --- 144. Northern Kentucky 22-12 Horz 0.0 --- 16 16 145. Washington 16-16 P12 0.0 --- 146. Penn 17-13 Ivy 0.0 --- 147. Cleveland St. 21-13 Horz 0.0 --- 148. Longwood 20-12 BSth 0.0 --- 149. Northwestern St. 22-11 Slnd 0.0 --- 150. Temple 16-16 Amer 0.0 --- 151. Norfolk St. 22-11 MEAC 0.0 --- 152. Colorado St. 15-18 MWC 0.0 --- 153. Texas A&M Corpus Chris 23-10 Slnd 0.0 --- 16 16p 154. Missouri St. 17-15 MVC 0.0 --- 155. Butler 14-18 BE 0.0 --- 156. Howard 22-12 MEAC 0.0 --- 16p 16 157. Quinnipiac 20-12 MAAC 0.0 --- 158. Radford 19-14 BSth 0.0 --- 159. Montana 17-14 BSky 0.0 --- 160. St. Thomas * 19-14 Sum 0.0 --- 161. Mississippi 12-21 SEC 0.0 --- 162. UC Davis 18-14 BW 0.0 --- 163. North Carolina Central 18-12 MEAC 0.0 --- 164. Navy 18-13 Pat 0.0 --- 165. Stetson 17-13 ASun 0.0 --- 166. Milwaukee 21-11 Horz 0.0 --- 167. Georgia 16-16 SEC 0.0 --- 168. Weber St. 18-15 BSky 0.0 --- 169. LSU 14-19 SEC 0.0 --- 170. Tarleton St. * 17-16 WAC 0.0 --- 171. Alcorn St. 18-13 SWAC 0.0 --- 172. Morehead St. 21-11 OVC 0.0 --- 173. Murray St. 17-15 MVC 0.0 --- 174. Bryant 17-13 AE 0.0 --- 175. Georgia Tech 15-18 ACC 0.0 --- 176. Fresno St. 11-20 MWC 0.0 --- 177. Florida Gulf Coast 17-15 ASun 0.0 --- 178. Brown 14-13 Ivy 0.0 --- 179. Boston College 16-17 ACC 0.0 --- 180. DePaul 10-23 BE 0.0 --- 181. Wright St. 18-15 Horz 0.0 --- 182. Wyoming 9-22 MWC 0.0 --- 183. Western Kentucky 17-16 CUSA 0.0 --- 184. Davidson 16-16 A10 0.0 --- 185. Air Force 14-18 MWC 0.0 --- 186. Utah Tech * 14-19 WAC 0.0 --- 187. Siena 17-15 MAAC 0.0 --- 188. Cal Baptist 17-16 WAC 0.0 --- 189. Drexel 17-15 CAA 0.0 --- 190. UMBC 18-14 AE 0.0 --- 191. Richmond 15-18 A10 0.0 --- 192. Rice 18-15 CUSA 0.0 --- 193. Louisiana Tech 15-18 CUSA 0.0 --- 194. Portland 14-19 WCC 0.0 --- 195. Notre Dame 11-21 ACC 0.0 --- 196. SIU Edwardsville 19-14 OVC 0.0 --- 197. Minnesota 9-22 B10 0.0 --- 198. South Florida 14-18 Amer 0.0 --- 199. Florida St. 9-23 ACC 0.0 --- 200. Chattanooga 18-17 SC 0.0 --- 201. Appalachian St. 16-16 SB 0.0 --- 202. Queens * 18-15 ASun 0.0 --- 203. Long Beach St. 17-16 BW 0.0 --- 204. Harvard 14-14 Ivy 0.0 --- 205. Rider 16-14 MAAC 0.0 --- 206. Texas St. 16-19 SB 0.0 --- 207. East Carolina 16-17 Amer 0.0 --- 208. New Mexico St. * 9-15 WAC 0.0 --- 209. SMU 10-22 Amer 0.0 --- 210. UTEP 14-18 CUSA 0.0 --- 211. South Carolina 11-21 SEC 0.0 --- 212. Pacific 15-18 WCC 0.0 --- 213. Western Carolina 18-15 SC 0.0 --- 214. Oregon St. 11-21 P12 0.0 --- 215. St. Bonaventure 14-18 A10 0.0 --- 216. Abilene Christian 13-17 WAC 0.0 --- 217. Saint Joseph's 16-17 A10 0.0 --- 218. Maryland Eastern Shore 18-13 MEAC 0.0 --- 219. Massachusetts 15-16 A10 0.0 --- 220. Gardner Webb 15-16 BSth 0.0 --- 221. Wofford 17-16 SC 0.0 --- 222. Southeast Missouri St. 19-16 OVC 0.0 --- 16p 16p 223. North Alabama 18-14 ASun 0.0 --- 224. Pepperdine 9-22 WCC 0.0 --- 225. Buffalo 15-17 MAC 0.0 --- 226. Tennessee Martin 19-14 OVC 0.0 --- 227. Georgia Southern 17-16 SB 0.0 --- 228. Purdue Fort Wayne 17-15 Horz 0.0 --- 229. Northern Iowa 14-18 MVC 0.0 --- 230. Southeastern Louisiana 18-14 Slnd 0.0 --- 231. Detroit Mercy 14-19 Horz 0.0 --- 232. FIU 14-18 CUSA 0.0 --- 233. George Washington 16-16 A10 0.0 --- 234. North Dakota St. 16-17 Sum 0.0 --- 235. Delaware 17-16 CAA 0.0 --- 236. San Diego 11-20 WCC 0.0 --- 237. Sacramento St. 14-18 BSky 0.0 --- 238. Mercer 14-19 SC 0.0 --- 239. Northern Arizona 12-23 BSky 0.0 --- 240. La Salle 15-19 A10 0.0 --- 241. UT Arlington 11-21 WAC 0.0 --- 242. Jacksonville 13-16 ASun 0.0 --- 243. American 17-15 Pat 0.0 --- 244. UT Rio Grande Valley 15-17 WAC 0.0 --- 245. Campbell 16-18 BSth 0.0 --- 246. Northern Colorado 12-20 BSky 0.0 --- 247. Georgetown 7-25 BE 0.0 --- 248. North Florida 14-17 ASun 0.0 --- 249. Bellarmine * 15-18 ASun 0.0 --- 250. Northern Illinois 13-19 MAC 0.0 --- 251. Jacksonville St. 13-18 ASun 0.0 --- 252. Portland St. 12-19 BSky 0.0 --- 253. Robert Morris 16-17 Horz 0.0 --- 254. East Tennessee St. 12-20 SC 0.0 --- 255. Winthrop 15-17 BSth 0.0 --- 256. USC Upstate 16-15 BSth 0.0 --- 257. Loyola Chicago 10-21 A10 0.0 --- 258. Western Illinois 16-14 Sum 0.0 --- 259. Idaho St. 11-21 BSky 0.0 --- 260. Tennessee St. 18-14 OVC 0.0 --- 261. Southern Indiana * 16-16 OVC 0.0 --- 262. Rhode Island 9-22 A10 0.0 --- 263. Nicholls St. 16-15 Slnd 0.0 --- 264. Fairleigh Dickinson 19-15 NEC 0.0 --- 16p 16p 265. Oakland 13-19 Horz 0.0 --- 266. Illinois St. 11-21 MVC 0.0 --- 267. Lehigh 16-14 Pat 0.0 --- 268. Dartmouth 10-18 Ivy 0.0 --- 269. North Dakota 13-20 Sum 0.0 --- 270. Niagara 16-15 MAAC 0.0 --- 271. UC San Diego * 10-20 BW 0.0 --- 272. Valparaiso 11-21 MVC 0.0 --- 273. Southern 15-17 SWAC 0.0 --- 274. Louisiana Monroe 11-21 SB 0.0 --- 275. Tennessee Tech 16-17 OVC 0.0 --- 276. Coastal Carolina 11-20 SB 0.0 --- 277. Arkansas St. 13-20 SB 0.0 --- 278. Illinois Chicago 12-20 MVC 0.0 --- 279. Denver 15-17 Sum 0.0 --- 280. UTSA 10-22 CUSA 0.0 --- 281. Morgan St. 15-16 MEAC 0.0 --- 282. High Point 14-17 BSth 0.0 --- 283. California 3-29 P12 0.0 --- 284. Cal St. Bakersfield 11-22 BW 0.0 --- 285. Louisville 4-28 ACC 0.0 --- 286. South Dakota 12-19 Sum 0.0 --- 287. Army 17-16 Pat 0.0 --- 288. Georgia St. 10-21 SB 0.0 --- 289. Boston University 15-17 Pat 0.0 --- 290. Texas Southern 14-20 SWAC 0.0 --- 16p 16p 291. Bowling Green 11-20 MAC 0.0 --- 292. Chicago St. 11-20 ind 0.0 --- 293. Prairie View A&M 13-19 SWAC 0.0 --- 294. New Hampshire 15-15 AE 0.0 --- 295. Maine 13-17 AE 0.0 --- 296. Fairfield 13-18 MAAC 0.0 --- 297. Miami OH 12-20 MAC 0.0 --- 298. Merrimack * 18-16 NEC 0.0 --- 299. Charleston Southern 10-21 BSth 0.0 --- 300. UMKC 11-21 Sum 0.0 --- 301. Wagner 15-13 NEC 0.0 --- 302. Idaho 10-22 BSky 0.0 --- 303. Texas A&M Commerce * 13-20 Slnd 0.0 --- 304. Jackson St. 14-19 SWAC 0.0 --- 305. William & Mary 13-20 CAA 0.0 --- 306. Lafayette 11-23 Pat 0.0 --- 307. North Carolina A&T 13-19 CAA 0.0 --- 308. Nebraska Omaha 9-23 Sum 0.0 --- 309. Mount St. Mary's 13-20 MAAC 0.0 --- 310. Central Michigan 10-21 MAC 0.0 --- 311. Alabama A&M 15-18 SWAC 0.0 --- 312. Cal Poly 8-25 BW 0.0 --- 313. Eastern Illinois 9-22 OVC 0.0 --- 314. Binghamton 13-18 AE 0.0 --- 315. Tulsa 5-25 Amer 0.0 --- 316. Northeastern 10-20 CAA 0.0 --- 317. The Citadel 10-22 SC 0.0 --- 318. Canisius 10-20 MAAC 0.0 --- 319. Eastern Michigan 8-23 MAC 0.0 --- 320. Little Rock 10-21 OVC 0.0 --- 321. Western Michigan 8-23 MAC 0.0 --- 322. Central Arkansas 9-22 ASun 0.0 --- 323. Saint Peter's 14-18 MAAC 0.0 --- 324. Austin Peay 9-22 ASun 0.0 --- 325. Marist 13-20 MAAC 0.0 --- 326. Coppin St. 9-23 MEAC 0.0 --- 327. Stonehill * 14-17 NEC 0.0 --- 328. Lindenwood * 11-21 OVC 0.0 --- 329. Cal St. Northridge 7-25 BW 0.0 --- 330. Loyola MD 13-20 Pat 0.0 --- 331. New Orleans 12-20 Slnd 0.0 --- 332. McNeese St. 11-23 Slnd 0.0 --- 333. Bucknell 12-20 Pat 0.0 --- 334. Stony Brook 11-22 CAA 0.0 --- 335. Manhattan 12-18 MAAC 0.0 --- 336. Incarnate Word 12-19 Slnd 0.0 --- 337. St. Francis PA 13-18 NEC 0.0 --- 338. Elon 8-24 CAA 0.0 --- 339. Bethune Cookman 12-20 SWAC 0.0 --- 340. Sacred Heart 16-17 NEC 0.0 --- 341. Arkansas Pine Bluff 10-21 SWAC 0.0 --- 342. Albany 8-23 AE 0.0 --- 343. Columbia 7-22 Ivy 0.0 --- 344. St. Francis NY 14-16 NEC 0.0 --- 345. South Carolina St. 5-26 MEAC 0.0 --- 346. Evansville 5-27 MVC 0.0 --- 347. Holy Cross 10-22 Pat 0.0 --- 348. Central Connecticut 10-22 NEC 0.0 --- 349. VMI 7-25 SC 0.0 --- 350. Delaware St. 6-24 MEAC 0.0 --- 351. NJIT 7-23 AE 0.0 --- 352. Lamar 9-22 Slnd 0.0 --- 353. Alabama St. 8-23 SWAC 0.0 --- 354. Hampton 8-24 CAA 0.0 --- 355. Monmouth 7-26 CAA 0.0 --- 356. Houston Christian 10-22 Slnd 0.0 --- 357. Florida A&M 7-22 SWAC 0.0 --- 358. Presbyterian 5-27 BSth 0.0 --- 359. Mississippi Valley St. 5-27 SWAC 0.0 --- 360. IUPUI 5-27 Horz 0.0 --- 361. Green Bay 3-29 Horz 0.0 --- 362. Hartford 5-23 ind 0.0 --- 363. LIU 3-26 NEC 0.0 ---
