SportsRatings: College Basketball

Much tougher road ahead for conference leaders Michigan State, Houston, Duke, Auburn

Though it seems there's a lot of parity across college basketball this season, all of the major conferences have standout teams that are either undefeated or have a single loss:

• Michigan State, 9-0 in the Big Ten
• Houston, 8-0 in the Big Twelve
• Duke, 10-0 in the ACC
• Auburn, 6-0 in the SEC
• Marquette and St. John's, both 9-1 in the Big East

Most of these teams, however, have played the much easier part of their conference slate and the road is about to get harder.

Michigan State (9-0 Big Ten, 18-2 overall)

The Spartans have a gaudy record after winning 13 straight games. But let's look at who they have beaten in the Kenpom Top 25:

Pre-conference season: No one
Conference play: #10 Illinois, 80-78 at home

So it's no surprise that they've played the easier part of their Big Ten schedule. The hard games are extremely back-loaded, too: six of their final seven foes are Kenpom Top 25: @#11 Illinois, #7 Purdue, @#20 Michigan, @#21 Maryland, #17 Wisconsin, #20 Michigan.

The Spartans will probably be in control when that stretch starts, but by the end?

Houston (8-0 in Big 12, 16-3 overall)

The Houston Cougars are playing great, up to #2 in Kenpom and Strength. But until they beat Kansas in double overtime, they really didn't have any great wins. They lost to Auburn, Alabama, and San Diego State in the pre-conference season, and the best team they beat was #80 Notre Dame.

So far in the Big 12 they've had 1 win over top 30 teams: #9 Kansas. (They also beat #31 BYU, to be fair).

How many top 30 teams left to play in the next 11 games? #12 Texas Tech, #26 Baylor, @#16 Arizona, #5 Iowa State, @#12 Texas Tech, #9 Kansas, and @#26 Baylor. 

So one down and seven to go for the Cougars.

Duke (10-0 in the ACC, 18-2 overall)

Unlike the other teams, Duke has a few solid pre-conference wins: #1 Auburn and #16 Arizona. And in ACC play so far, they've beaten four teams in the top 75: #24 Louisville, #49 SMU, #34 Pitt, and #75 Wake Forest.

They have six more in the 2nd half of the ACC season, which is not exceptionally imbalanced. But they also face #11 Illinois in New York, their toughest opponent since Auburn!

So it doesn't look like Duke's ACC dominance is at risk, but their schedule is going to be harder over the 5 weeks than it was the 5 previous weeks, that's for sure.

Auburn (6-0 in the SEC, 18-1 overall)

The Tigers are the clear #1 team in the country and their résumé is unasailable: wins over #2 Houston, #5 Iowa State, and #7 Purdue in the pre-conference season, and wins in the SEC over four top-40 teams.

But they're only 6 games into an 18-game SEC schedule, so they've just got more sheer work to go than the other conference leaders. And it's tough work, too, compared to any other conference. The Tigers have seven games left against Kenpom top 25 opponents: #22 Ole Miss (road and home), #4 Florida, #8 Alabama (road and home), #19 Kentucky (road), #18 Texas A&M (road)

If Auburn remains #1 they'll definitely have earned it.

Marquette (9-1 Big East, 18-3 overall)
St. John's (9-1 Big East, 18-3 overall)

The Big East has co-leaders as of 1/30/2025, and both have moderately tougher roads ahead.

Marquette has faced three top 50 teams in Big East play (going 2-1) and has 5 left.

St. John's has faced three top 50 teams (going 2-1) and has 5 left.

So both have a tougher path, but equivalent to each other. What's the difference over the next 10 games?

The answer is, the teams haven't played each other, and they do twice before the end of the season. They meet at St. John's next Tuesday (Feb. 4), and again on Saturday March 8.

 

 

 

 

Week 12 2024-25: Auburn and Duke still rule the bracket

Auburn and Duke played just once each last week. Both underperformed but won, and both held their spots on top of the Dance Chance. The Blue Devils beat Wake Forest by just 7 points on the road, which caused a minor slip in their 1-seed odds. The Tigers held on to beat Tennessee by 2 points at home, about the same level of underperformance as Duke but beating Tennessee by any amount, even at home, is a big deal and Auburn's 1-seed odds now sit at 97.5%—higher than all but 8 teams' tournament odds! The Vols' odds went up, with their 1-seed odds climbing 3.4%. Part of that was from their other game last week, an 68-56 win over Mississippi State, but also from the fact that losing to Auburn is expected and not a big ding on the résumé. They did, however, slip to a 2-seed, but remain in a virtual tie with Alabama and Florida. The Tide beat Vandy and LSU last week and jumped into the other 1-seed slot, while Florida nipped South Carolina and crushed Georgia to add 10% to their 1-seed odds. It's pretty clear that the SEC is going to have at least two 1-seeds. Tennessee rematches Florida this Saturday in Knoxville, hoping to avenge the 73-43 loss in Gainesville.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
  1. Auburn                 SEC  18-1  28-3   30-1  100.0   0.0  97.5  +0.5    1    1 
  2. Duke                   ACC  17-2  28-3   29-2  >99.9   0.0  79.4  -1.1    1    1 
  3. Alabama                SEC  17-3  24-7   25-6   99.8  +0.8  43.9  +6.2    1    2 
  4. Florida                SEC  18-2  26-5   26-5   99.8  +0.4  53.5 +10.0    1    1 
  5. Tennessee              SEC  17-3  25-6   28-3   99.8  +0.4  47.1  +3.4    2    1 
  6. Houston                B12  16-3  26-5   28-3   99.5  +1.3  22.3  +9.4    2    2 
  7. Iowa St.               B12  17-2  26-5   26-5   99.0  +1.3  18.3  +5.2    2    2 
  8. Purdue                 B10  16-5  23-8   23-8   98.0  +2.5   6.2  +0.2    2    3 

Houston and Iowa State are probably the favorites for the remaining 1-seed since the Selection Committee will be loathe to give three bids to the same conference (though it's happened before a few times). The Cougars beat Kansas, at Kansas, in double overtime in what is really their first big win of the season; they fell short against Auburn and Alabama in the pre-conference season, but have won 12 straight now. Iowa State also lost to Auburn in November but is 14-1 since, including UCF (108-83) and ASU (76-61) last week. And Purdue takes over our leadership of the Big Ten despite falling to Ohio State last Tuesday. The Boilermakers crushed Michigan 91-64 on Friday.

If the SEC looks sure to get 2+ 1-seeds, the Big Ten appears to be a long-shot to get one. Illinois fumbled the bag with a 91-70 home loss to Maryland, their 3rd loss in 4 games, before recovering with an 83-74 win over Northwestern. Michigan, as mentioned, lost to Purdue by 27. Michigan State beat Rutgers for their 12th win in a row but still only rates a 4-seed in the Dance Chance; the Spartans' biggest pre-conference win is North Carolina which isn't aging well. Maryland roared back with the win over Illinois (and a 1-point win at Indiana) but the Terps remain around 1.0% for 1-seed consideration at this point. Don't look at the Big East, either, as their big hope is Marquette, who holds wins over Maryland, Purdue, and Wisconsin and rates a 3-seed this week, but has just 1.6% 1-seed odds.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
  9. Illinois               B10  14-6  22-9   23-8   97.3  -1.3   6.0 -11.9    3    2 
 10. Kentucky               SEC  14-5  21-10  22-9   96.9  -0.2  10.9  -7.8    3    3 
 11. Marquette              BE   17-3  25-6   27-4   94.9  +2.8   1.6  +0.2    3    4 
 12. Michigan               B10  14-5  22-9   25-6   94.5  -1.3   2.7  -5.3    3    3 
 13. Michigan St.           B10  17-2  24-7   25-6   94.2  +1.8   2.5  -0.8    4    4 
 14. Kansas                 B12  14-5  23-8   25-6   93.9   0.0   1.1  -3.2    4    3 
 15. Texas A&M              SEC  15-5  21-10  21-10  93.6  +5.6   3.3  +0.5    4    5 
 16. Maryland               B10  16-5  24-8   26-6   93.1 +11.0   0.9  +0.7    4    6 

Again, the SEC shows how it's done: even 5th place Kentucky—who lost to Vanderbilt on Saturday to go 3-3 in-conference—still has double-digit 1-seed odds based on the opportunity value of their remaining SEC schedule (as well as big wins over Duke, Gonzaga, Louisville, and Florida). Texas A&M lost at Texas by a point after blowing a 21 point lead but their tournament odds and 1-seed odds went up due to beating Ole Miss in Oxford (by a point also). Kansas' 74-61 win at TCU apparently exactly offset their loss to Houston...but their 1-seed odds fell by about 75% from 4.3 to 1.1%.

And if you thought the SEC teams were done...here are the 3M's. Missouri lost at Texas but beat Mississippi at home; they next play Mississippi State, who slipped last week, losing to Tennessee and needing OT to beat South Carolina. Mississippi had the worst week of the three, losing not only to Missouri but to Texas A&M at home. Still, this gives the SEC nine teams among the top five seeds, almost half. The Big Ten has two teams here, giving them seven teams in the top 6-seeds. Wisconsin lost at UCLA by a bucket but roasted Nebraska in Madison 83-55. Oregon tripped Washington in Eugene but lost to Minnesota 77-69. Like Kansas, that was a wash for their tournament hopes but leave them at negligible 1-seed odds, even at 16-4.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 17. Wisconsin              B10  16-4  23-8   23-8   90.1  +4.2   0.9  +0.2    5    5 
 18. Missouri               SEC  16-4  21-10  21-10  89.1  +0.7   0.6  -0.8    5    5 
 19. Mississippi St.        SEC  16-4  22-9   22-9   87.9  -1.1   0.7  -1.9    5    4 
 20. Mississippi            SEC  15-5  20-11  20-11  85.6  -4.8   0.8  -2.8    5    4 
 21. Oregon                 B10  16-4  22-9   23-8   85.1   0.0  <0.1  -0.1    6    5 
 22. Gonzaga                WCC  15-6  24-7   25-6   82.2  +1.2   0.0   0.0    6    6 
 23. St. John's             BE   17-3  24-7   26-5   80.7  +0.6  <0.1   0.0    6    6 
 24. Arizona                B12  13-6  20-11  22-9   79.2  -3.1  <0.1   0.0    6    6 

Gonzaga played one game, beating lowly (7-15) Portland 105-62. That didn't budge the radar much, neither did St. John's for beating Xavier. Nor Arizona for beating Oklahoma State and Colorado, in fact their Dance Chance dipped a bit though they held their 6-seed. The Wildcats host Iowa State tonight (Monday) in a very important game for their eventual seed, while the Zags play St. Mary's on Saturday.

Not much movement below odds-wise, though Utah State (won twice by 20+ to start 18-2) and Vandy (lost to Bama but beat UK) jump from the 9-line. Texas Tech plays Houston on Saturday while UCLA has USC tonight and Oregon Thursday.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 25. Texas Tech             B12  15-4  23-8   23-8   78.4  +0.7  <0.1   0.0    7    7 
 26. UCLA                   B10  14-6  20-11  23-8   77.4  +3.3  <0.1   0.0    7    7 
 27. Utah St.               MWC  18-2  26-5   28-3   73.4  +6.5   0.0   0.0    7    9 
 28. Vanderbilt             SEC  16-4  20-11  20-11  73.3  +5.4  <0.1   0.0    7    9 
 29. Memphis                Amer 16-4  26-5   27-4   73.1  -0.8   0.0   0.0    8    7 
 30. Louisville             ACC  15-5  24-7   26-5   72.9  +3.5   0.0   0.0    8    8 
 31. Clemson                ACC  17-4  24-7   25-6   70.5  +0.6   0.0   0.0    8    8 
 32. Texas                  SEC  14-6  19-12  19-12  67.9 +15.6  <0.1   0.0    8   11p 

Memphis won twice at home, by 8 and 23 and still slipped a bit. It's getting to that time for mid-Majors where, if the teams above you don't lose, you lose ground. Louisville is now the #2 ACC pick after winning 9 in a row, with Clemson—winner of 5 in a row—right behind. Texas had a great home stand: beating Missouri then coming back from 21 down to top A&M, a week that gained them over 15% in the Dance Chance and took them off the bubble—for now. The Bubble has a way of drawing teams back in.

Connecticut's woes continued as the Huskies lost to Xavier after needing OT to beat Butler at home. The week before they fell to Creighton, who continued their own good luck with wins over DePaul and Seton Hall. Ohio State had maybe the best week on the chart, up 16.3% after beating Purdue on the road and Iowa at home by 17.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 33. Connecticut            BE   14-6  21-10  21-10  66.9  -2.6   0.0   0.0    9    8 
 34. Ohio St.               B10  11-8  18-13  19-12  66.4 +16.3  <0.1   0.0    9   11p
 35. Creighton              BE   14-6  21-10  22-9   65.1  +8.1   0.0   0.0    9   11 
 36. Pittsburgh             ACC  13-6  22-9   22-9   64.5  -0.2   0.0   0.0    9    9 
 37. Saint Mary's           WCC  18-3  25-6   26-5   64.3  +4.1   0.0   0.0   10   10 
 38. Georgia                SEC  14-6  19-12  20-11  63.9 -11.0  <0.1  -0.2   10    7 

St. Mary's has won 8 in a row heading into their Saturday showdown with Gonzaga. Pittsburgh broke their 4-game losing streak at Syracuse but they've settled in at a 9-seed, while Georgia's skid continued with losses at Arkansas and Florida. That follows losses to Florida and Auburn, so it's not really the Bulldogs' fault.

The Bubble: Baylor and SDSU both took care of business last week and held their 10-seeds but neither could escape the gravity of the bubble. New Mexico gives the Mountain West three teams, two on the bubble. UC Irvine was upset by Cal-Riverside last Thursday in overtime and with UC San Diego's rise, both Big West powers are on the good side of the bubble. The Tritons won by 14 and 25 last week to reach the play-in line, but in this scenario there's little hope for getting two Big West teams in after the conference tournament. 

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 39. Baylor                 B12  13-6  20-11  19-12  61.0  +2.0   0.0  -0.1   10   10 
 40. San Diego St.          MWC  13-5  21-8   23-6   60.0  +2.6   0.0   0.0   10   10 
 41. UC Irvine              BW   18-3  28-4   29-3   57.2  -3.5   0.0   0.0   11    9 
 42. New Mexico             MWC  17-4  24-7   24-7   56.9  -0.3   0.0   0.0   11   10 
 43. West Virginia          B12  13-6  19-12  20-11  55.7 -17.3   0.0  -0.1   11p   8 
 44. Xavier                 BE   13-8  20-11  21-10  54.5  +2.3   0.0   0.0   11p  11p
 45. UC San Diego           BW   17-4  26-6   27-5   54.1  +4.9   0.0   0.0   11p     
 46. Oklahoma               SEC  15-4  19-12  17-14  53.5  +9.3   0.0   0.0   11p     

West Virginia drops from an 8-seed to a play-in team after losing twice—at home to ASU and Kansas on the road. Next up, Houston. Xavier holds on to their play-in status, splitting games with St. John's and UConn (a 76-72 home win). And Oklahoma steals the last spot with a couple of wins (South Carolina and Arkansas) putting the Sooners at 2-4 in the SEC and favored in only 2 more games. If they do make it to 19-12 they will probably need a win in the tournament to make the Big Dance.

The Lower Bubble: BYU had a great week and almost made the seedings. The Cougars beat Colorado 83-67 on the road and Cincinnati 80-52 at home. Penn State (3-6 in the Big Ten) beat Rutgers but lost to Iowa by a point on the road, keeping them on the bubble along with Northwestern (also 3-6). VCU is tops in the Atlantic 10 and has won six straight in league play. 

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 47. BYU                    B12  13-6  19-12  20-11  52.6 +16.1   0.0   0.0           
 48. Penn St.               B10  13-7  19-12  19-12  49.5  +0.5   0.0   0.0           
 49. VCU                    A10  16-4  25-6   27-4   45.9  +6.3   0.0   0.0   12   12 
 50. SMU                    ACC  15-5  23-8   25-6   44.9 -10.4   0.0   0.0        11 
 51. North Carolina         ACC  13-8  20-12  20-12  44.4  -9.9   0.0   0.0        11p
 52. Bradley                MVC  18-3  25-6   27-4   39.0  +1.3   0.0   0.0   12      
 53. Drake                  MVC  18-2  25-5   27-3   39.0  -3.7   0.0   0.0        12 
 54. Northwestern           B10  12-8  18-13  18-13  38.9  +3.9   0.0   0.0           

SMU and North Carolina both drop out of the seedlines, giving the ACC just four teams projected. The Tar Heels lost to Wake Forest then edged Boston College in overtime at home. SMU fell to Louisville by 25 before beating NC State Saturday. And Bradley and Drake are locked in a neck-and-neck struggle in the Missouri Valley that probably means nothing, since it will come down to the tournament. The Braves and Bulldogs are both at 39.0% for an at-large bid. Drake beat Bradley on January 8th; the rematch, at Drake, is on February 16th.

Mid-majors have hope? Dayton made some progress toward reclaiming its Atlantic 10 favorite status, winning three straight after a 3-game skid, while George Mason is actually tied for the league lead at 6-1. North Texas also made progress toward a possible bid with their 4th and 5th win in a row, but quality win opportunities are not on the horizon. McNeese is the favorite in the Southland and has reasonable hope of winning out. The Cowboys have won 11 straight and are 10-0 in conference play.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 57. Dayton                 A10  14-6  22-9   23-8   37.7  +6.8   0.0   0.0           
 58. North Texas            Amer 15-4  24-6   26-4   35.6  +6.2   0.0   0.0           
 60. McNeese                Slnd 15-5  25-6   26-5   33.5  +6.8   0.0   0.0   12   12 
 62. UCF                    B12  13-6  18-13  18-13  29.9  +9.9   0.0   0.0           
 64. Cincinnati             B12  12-7  18-13  18-13  26.9 -17.6   0.0   0.0           
 65. Iowa                   B10  13-7  17-14  15-16  24.8 -10.5   0.0   0.0           
 67. Nebraska               B10  12-8  16-15  15-16  23.9 -18.4   0.0   0.0           
 68. George Mason           A10  15-5  23-8   25-6   23.9  +5.4   0.0   0.0           

Majors who still have hope? (above): UCF got a bump in Big Twelve play from beating TCU 85-58 Saturday; they're up almost 10% despite losing at Iowa State before that. Cincinnati went the opposite direction in a big way after falling to Texas Tech and BYU (by 28). Both Iowa and Nebraska were dragged down, the Hawkeyes by a terrible home loss to Minnesota and a 1-point escape vs. Penn State, the Cornhuskers by a home loss to USC and 28-point loss at Wisconsin, for their 6th loss in a row after a 12-2 start.

ACC in the news: Wake Forest got a boost from upsetting North Carolina, 67-66, and playing Duke pretty close, 63-56. Stanford had a solid week, beating Miami and Florida State, who had a terrible week by also losing to California. All three have around 20% odds to get a bid, so in aggregate the odds favor one of them to come close at least. Villanova's chances don't look great after losing 4 of their last 5 to stand at 12-9, but they still have opportunities on their schedule including Creighton at home next. 

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 69. Wake Forest            ACC  15-5  19-12  19-12  23.0  +6.4   0.0   0.0           
 70. Stanford               ACC  14-6  20-11  20-11  21.9 +11.0   0.0   0.0           
 73. Florida St.            ACC  13-7  19-12  20-11  19.9 -14.2   0.0   0.0           
 75. Villanova              BE   12-9  17-14  18-13  17.4 -11.6   0.0   0.0           
 81. Akron                  MAC  14-5  23-7   25-5    8.8  +6.0   0.0   0.0   13   14 
 84. Washington St.         WCC  15-7  20-11  19-12   7.6 -11.3   0.0   0.0           
 86. Nevada                 MWC  11-9  18-13  17-14   7.6 -13.2   0.0   0.0           
 91. TCU                    B12  10-9  15-16  14-17   5.0 -10.7   0.0   0.0           

Little hope for bid: Don't look now but Akron is 7-0 in the MAC and favored the rest of the way, so even if they lose in the conference tournament they're pretty solid for the NIT. But Washington State is faltering in the WCC after losses to Santa Clara and St. Mary's, Nevada is 3-6 in the Mountain West after dropping games to top MWC teams Utah State and San Diego State by 40 points total, and TCU is down to a 1 in 20 long shot after losses to Kansas and Central Florida. 

Week 11: Upset carnage has little effect; Auburn and Duke are a commanding #1 and #2

Upsets and losses plagued the AP Top 25 which had a "shakeup" according to ESPN, but here at the Dance Chance the effects were surprisingly muted. Obviously, teams who avoided the upset bug, got stronger because of it. The effects on other teams was sometimes counter-intuitive. So many teams lost that the overall change was almost minor.

Neither Auburn or Duke lost and both got stronger, both adding to their 1-seed odds (Duke up 11.6%) and the Tigers hitting the mythical 100% tournament status. But the next three teams—Florida, Tennessee, and Alabama—were a bit paradoxical. The Gators lost to home to Missouri but held their 1-seed, with their odds barely budging; their subsequent 84-60 win over Texas helped assuage the loss. Tennessee, who fell at Vanderbilt by a point, actually moved up to a 1-seed and their 1-seed odds climbed! This was probably due to their solid win over Georgia prior to the loss—and the fact that so many other 1-seed candidates fell short. One of those was Alabama, who beat Kentucky on the road after a home loss to Mississippi. The Tide dropped a notch to a 2-seed while their 1-seed odds took a hit, but remained at roughly the same level as the other two SEC contenders.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
  1. Auburn                 SEC  17-1  28-3   30-1  100.0  +0.1  97.0  +3.1    1    1 
  2. Duke                   ACC  16-2  28-3   29-2  >99.9   0.0  80.5 +11.6    1    1 
  3. Florida                SEC  16-2  25-6   26-5   99.4  +0.3  43.5  -0.6    1    1 
  4. Tennessee              SEC  16-2  25-6   27-4   99.4  +0.8  43.7  +2.7    1    2 
  5. Alabama                SEC  15-3  23-8   25-6   99.0  +0.3  37.7  -3.9    2    1 
  6. Illinois               B10  13-5  23-8   25-6   98.6  +2.6  17.9  +3.3    2    3 
  7. Houston                B12  14-3  25-6   28-3   98.2  +1.0  12.9  +0.7    2    2 
  8. Iowa St.               B12  15-2  26-5   26-5   97.7  +1.3  13.1  -2.6    2    2 

Illinois generally improved their situation, up to a 2-seed from a 3-, despite the narrow loss at Michigan State. That was forgivable—especially this week—and they beat Indiana 94-69 on the road as well. Two Big Twelve teams held their 2-seeds; Iowa State's loss to West Virginia dinged their 1-seed odds but their overall situation improved, largely due to beating Kansas handily. Houston was a rare top team that didn't lose last week and while their numbers bumped up, it wasn't by as much as one would expect. They did have a very close call at UCF, which didn't help, but they got the win as well as beating West Virginia (who subsequently beat Iowa State). The Cougars are 6-0 in the Big Twelve but haven't played any of the top teams yet.

The Cougars do face Kansas on Saturday though; the Jayhawks recovered from the loss to Iowa State to beat rival Kansas State at home, but the overall effect was negative, though they held their 3-seed. Kentucky, as noted, lost at home to Alabama but their numbers climbed, even their 1-seed odds. Beating Texas A&M 81-69 helped, but I think their previous neutral-court win over Duke is continuing to pay dividends.  The Big Ten race got tighter after Michigan's overtime loss at Minnesota knocked the Wolverines down to a 3-seed. They also needed overtime to beat Northwestern at home. And look who's back: Purdue, now 7-1 in conference after road wins over Washington and Oregon. Michigan State beat Illinois and Penn State at home to extend their winning streak to 11 games, yet they stayed a 4-seed here and their 1-seed odds didn't budge. The Spartans' Strength rating remains fairly low (#17) which is holding back their future projection, with 4 or 5 more losses expected.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
  9. Kentucky               SEC  14-4  22-9   24-7   97.1  +1.4  18.7  +0.9    3    3 
 10. Michigan               B10  14-4  23-8   24-7   95.8  -0.9   8.0  -6.8    3    2 
 11. Purdue                 B10  15-4  23-8   24-7   95.5  +5.3   6.0  +2.2    3    4 
 12. Kansas                 B12  13-4  23-8   25-6   93.9  -0.8   4.3  -4.5    3    3 
 13. Michigan St.           B10  16-2  24-7   25-6   92.4  +4.6   3.3   0.0    4    4 
 14. Marquette              BE   15-3  25-6   26-5   92.1  -1.9   1.4  -4.9    4    3 
 15. Mississippi            SEC  15-3  21-10  22-9   90.4 +14.1   3.6  +2.6    4    6 
 16. Mississippi St.        SEC  15-3  22-9   22-9   89.0  +1.8   2.6  -1.6    4    5 

Marquette wasn't spared last week as the Eagles lost at home to Xavier, following an overtime win at DePaul. This pretty much insures that the Big East won't have a team among the 1-seeds. Mississippi and Mississippi State both moved up to 4-seeds fter mixed results—intertwined since the teams played with Mississippi State prevailing at home, 84-81 in overtime. Yet it was the Rebels up over 14% due to their big win at Alabama (74-64); the road loss to the Bulldogs was expected and very close and didn't hurt them. The Bulldogs' rise was muted by their 88-66 loss at Auburn, also expected but not close at all.

Missouri was perhaps the big winner last week. They went 2-0—a rarity!—with a big road win over Florida, 83-82, and also beat Arkansas 83-65. The Tigers' tournament odds went from about 70% to 88%, their seed from an 8- to a 5-, and their negligible 1-seed odds rose over a percent (hey you take what you can get). Yet another SEC team, Texas A&M, was seemingly unharmed by losing at Kentucky; they rebounded by beating LSU and held their 5-seed. Losses are going to happen and projecting the season takes most of them into account already. In the Big Ten, Wisconsin went unbeaten against Ohio State and USC; Oregon fell to Purdue at home; and Maryland took it on the chin with a loss at Northwestern but edged Nebraska at home.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 17. Missouri               SEC  15-3  22-9   21-10  88.4 +18.7   1.4  +1.2    5    8 
 18. Texas A&M              SEC  14-4  21-10  21-10  88.0  +1.2   2.8  -1.0    5    5 
 19. Wisconsin              B10  15-3  23-8   23-8   85.9  +7.9   0.7  +0.3    5    6 
 20. Oregon                 B10  15-3  23-8   24-7   85.1  -2.4   0.2  -0.5    5    4 
 21. Arizona                B12  11-6  21-10  22-9   82.3  +1.9   0.1  -0.3    6    5 
 22. Maryland               B10  14-5  23-9   24-8   82.1  -5.3   0.2  -1.5    6    5 
 23. Gonzaga                WCC  14-6  24-7   25-6   81.0  -8.5   0.0  -0.1    6    4 
 24. St. John's             BE   16-3  24-7   26-5   80.1  +5.7  <0.1   0.0    6    7 

Arizona had their first Big Twelve loss to Texas Tech, 70-54, but also beat Baylor. Gonzaga had a terrible week, losing at Oregon State in overtime then falling at home to Santa Clara. The 'Zags normally compete for a 1-seed but that hope is officially dead by our numbers. St. John's is now our #2 team in the faltering Big East; the Red Storm are now 7-1 in conference play.

Texas Tech rode the win over Arizona to jump to a 7-seed, while West Virginia's hell week (Houston, Iowa State) turned out okay as the Mountaineers beat the Cyclones. Georgia had a hell week too, and they are an interesting case as the Bulldogs lost twice but basically stayed put: their 20-11 projections didn't move, they retain a tiny 0.3% chance of getting a 1-seed, and their roughly 75% chance of making the tournament moved by a rounding error. They lost big at home to 1-seed Tennessee, but played top overall seed Auburn so close (70-68) that the overall effect of going from 14-2 to 14-4 was negligible.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 25. Texas Tech             B12  13-4  22-9   23-8   77.7  +7.4  <0.1   0.0    7    8 
 26. Georgia                SEC  14-4  20-11  20-11  74.9  -0.2   0.3   0.0    7    7 
 27. UCLA                   B10  12-6  20-11  23-8   74.1  -1.5  <0.1   0.0    7    6 
 28. Memphis                Amer 14-4  25-6   27-4   73.9  -0.3   0.0   0.0    7    7 
 29. West Virginia          B12  13-4  21-10  22-9   73.0  +6.9  <0.1   0.0    8    9 
 30. Clemson                ACC  15-4  24-7   25-6   69.9  +4.4   0.0   0.0    8    9 
 31. Connecticut            BE   13-5  22-9   22-9   69.5  -6.3   0.0  -0.1    8    6 
 32. Louisville             ACC  14-5  23-8   25-6   69.4  +3.3   0.0   0.0    8    9 

Memphis fell to Temple but walked away pretty much unharmed; the Tigers hold wins over several teams that scored big upsets (Missouri, Michigan State, Ole Miss) which insulates them from surprise losses—for now, at least. They also have a win over UConn, who was upset at home by Creighton and after winning the national title two years in a row will not be a 1-seed in 2025. UCLA lost to Rutgers last week and fell to a 7-seed; they are the #8 Big Ten team here, while Clemson and Louisville are the #2 and #3 ACC team believe it or not. Both are 7-1 in conference after two wins each last week.

Vanderbilt rode their Tennessee upset to a 9-seed, while Utah State suffered only their 2nd loss of the year at UNLV. Pittsburgh dropped even further following their 3rd and 4th losses in a row (to Florida State and Clemson). 

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 33. Vanderbilt             SEC  15-3  19-12  18-13  67.9 +10.6  <0.1   0.0    9   11 
 34. Utah St.               MWC  16-2  26-5   27-4   66.9  -5.0   0.0   0.0    9    8 
 35. Pittsburgh             ACC  12-6  22-9   22-9   64.7 -10.6   0.0  -0.1    9    7 
 36. UC Irvine              BW   17-2  28-4   30-2   60.7  -0.5   0.0   0.0    9   10 
 37. Saint Mary's           WCC  16-3  24-7   26-5   60.2  +3.4   0.0   0.0   10   11p
 38. Baylor                 B12  11-6  19-12  19-12  59.0 -14.5  <0.1   0.0   10    8 

Cal-Irvine continued to win but their odds dipped a bit, as did their seed, undoubtedly due to UC San Diego's loss as the Triton's are the cornerstone of the Anteaters' résumé. St. Mary's (6-0 in conference play) narrowed the gap with Gonzaga in the WCC, while Baylor took a dive after losing twice (to Arizona and TCU).

The bubble: Last year the Mountain West had six teams but this year there is a chance the MWC is a 1-bid league (odds say 2 or 3 will makes it). San Diego State lost to UNLV but held their 10-seed, as did New Mexico who won twice. The Lobos won by 19 over Boise and 28 over Fresno, but lost earlier in the week to San Jose State (their win over Fresno was on Monday, a day after the Dance Chance period—so look for them to move up next time). Blue-blood names were not immune, either, as North Carolina and Ohio State dropped onto the play-in level. The Tar Heels lost to Stanford at home, while the Buckeyes fell to WIsconsin and Indiana.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 39. San Diego St.          MWC  11-5  21-8   23-6   57.4  -6.5   0.0   0.0   10   10 
 40. New Mexico             MWC  15-4  23-8   23-8   57.2  -3.0   0.0   0.0   10   10 
 41. Creighton              BE   12-6  20-11  21-10  57.0 +12.4   0.0   0.0   11      
 42. SMU                    ACC  14-4  24-7   27-4   55.3  +7.7   0.0   0.0   11      
 43. North Carolina         ACC  12-7  20-12  21-11  54.3  -7.7   0.0   0.0   11p  10 
 44. Texas                  SEC  12-6  18-13  18-13  52.3  +1.4   0.0  -0.1   11p  11p
 45. Xavier                 BE   12-7  20-11  21-10  52.2 +19.5   0.0   0.0   11p     
 46. Ohio St.               B10  10-8  17-14  18-13  50.1 -15.7   0.0  -0.1   11p   9 

Three teams jumped in this week: Creighton (after upsetting UConn), SMU (won two road games, including a 117-74 win at Miami), and Xavier (upset Marquette).  This gives the Big East a respectable 5 teams in the seedings, and the ACC a total of six. Current odds say the Big East gets 4 teams in, and that the ACC ends up with 5. Texas is the 12th SEC team with the odds suggesting 11.5, so the Longhorns spot is precarious!

UC-San Diego lost their 2nd game in 3 tries and is currently the First Team Out in our standings. The Tritons may push their way back in but ultimately the Big West is pretty certainly a 1-bid league. Penn State and Nebraska hope to give the Big Ten more than its current nine teams, and the odds do favor the league getting around 10 bids. Neither team fared well last week, especially the Cornhuskers who have now lost 4 in a row (on Monday the Nittany Lions halted their 4-game skid by beating Rutgers). Oklahoma also broke a 4-game losing streak but they are following their projection to a "T" after a 13-0 start.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 47. UC San Diego           BW   15-4  26-6   27-5   49.2  -7.9   0.0   0.0        11 
 48. Penn St.               B10  12-6  19-12  20-11  49.0  -0.9   0.0   0.0           
 49. Cincinnati             B12  12-5  19-12  20-11  44.5  +2.5   0.0   0.0           
 50. Oklahoma               SEC  14-4  18-13  16-15  44.2  -2.4   0.0   0.0           
 51. Drake                  MVC  16-2  25-5   28-2   42.7  +3.3   0.0   0.0   12   12 
 52. Nebraska               B10  12-6  18-13  16-15  42.3 -11.9   0.0   0.0        11p
 53. VCU                    A10  14-4  24-7   26-5   39.6  +1.6   0.0   0.0   12      
 54. Santa Clara            WCC  13-7  20-11  19-12  37.9 +10.3   0.0   0.0           

Santa Clara finds themselves on the bubble after beating Gonzaga 103-99 on the road. That's a huge win and it moved the Broncos into the Second Four Out despite also losing last week to Loyola Marymount. At 13-7 they don't have much leeway in the WCC but apparently opportunity (two games vs. St. Mary's, and Gonzaga at home) is what puts their odds at 38%.

Just below the official bubble, Bradley makes a big move up mainly due to a 118-65 win over Indiana State which boosted their Strength and roughly doubled their odds of making the tournament via at-large bid. But again, the MVC is looking like a 1-bid league so their real odds rest on winning the conference tournament (though their Strength boost improves those odds as well). Arkansas is struggling in the SEC, with 5 losses in a row and the schedule doesn't get easier. 

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 55. Bradley                MVC  16-3  25-6   27-4   37.7 +18.5   0.0   0.0           
 56. Arkansas               SEC  11-7  17-14  16-15  37.1 -13.5   0.0  -0.1           
 59. Iowa                   B10  12-6  18-13  16-15  35.3 -15.9   0.0   0.0        11p
 60. Northwestern           B10  11-7  17-14  18-13  35.0 +11.9   0.0   0.0           
 64. Dayton                 A10  12-6  21-10  23-8   30.9 -16.8   0.0   0.0        12 

Iowa and Northwestern went in different directions last week in the Big Ten. The Hawkeyes fell from their play-in perch after losing twice in a tour of fire-ravaged Los Angeles; USC beat them 99-89 and UCLA 94-70. The Wildcats had two overtime games, beating Maryland at home and losing to Michigan on the road. The net result was a 12% boost in at-large odds. Dayton has squandered their lead in the Atlantic 10, which now belongs to VCU. The Flyers lost to George Mason and needed overtime to beat Loyola-Chicago at home.

Liberty is still the favorite in Conference USA despite a 3-3 standing following a loss to UTEP last Thursday. St. Bonaventure has lost 3 of their last 4 and their odds dropped double digits; they are also 3-3 in Atlantic 10 play. And Arizona State's fast start has fizzled during Big Twelve play; the Sun Devils have lost four in a row and are just 1-5 in conference. 

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 75. Liberty                CUSA 15-4  23-8   26-5   17.5 -10.2   0.0   0.0   12   12 
 79. St. Bonaventure        A10  15-4  22-9   24-7   16.3 -11.7   0.0   0.0           
 80. Arizona St.            B12  10-7  16-15  16-15  16.1 -16.9   0.0   0.0           
 84. Georgetown             BE   12-6  17-14  15-16  11.3 -11.7   0.0   0.0           
 90. UNLV                   MWC  11-7  17-14  17-14   8.2  +6.4   0.0   0.0           
 96. Furman                 SC   15-4  23-8   23-8    4.1 -16.3   0.0   0.0        13 

Georgetown's odds also got cut in half last week after losing to DePaul, but they did break their 4-game losing streak by beating Villanova 64-63. Furman had it even worse, losing 16.3%, over 80% of their previous odds. The Paladins played 3 games in 6 days and went 1-2, losing to Wofford and Chattanooga, and beating East Tennessee State, all at home. UNLV was a rare bright spot in the lower reaches of the Dance Chance after an amazing week where they upset MWC leader Utah State 65-62 and stalwart San Diego State 76-68 on the road. Unfortunately for the Runnin' Rebels, they were 9-7 beforehand with less than 2.0% odds so their odds are still pretty long. They haven't really lost to anyone bad, but they still face a lot of tough opponents in the Mountain West, which does mean opportunity if they can greatly exceed their 17-14 projection. Maybe last week marks a breakthrough, so be sure to keep an eye on the Rebels.

Rash of upsets focuses on home teams, lowers home court advantage to 3.00

The upset bug has hit college basketball with almost every top team losing at least once this week. In the AP Top 25 the losers were:

• #2 Iowa State lost at West Virginia, 64-57 
• #4 Alabama lost at home to Ole Miss, 74-64
• #5 Florida lost at home to Missouri, 83-82
• #6 Tennessee lost at Vanderbilt, 76-75
• #7 Marquette lost at home to Xavier, 59-57
• #8 Kentucky lost at home to Alabama, 102-97
• #9 Kansas lost at Iowa State, 74-57
• #11 Texas A&M lost at Kentucky, 81-69
• #13 Oregon lost at home to Purdue, 65-68
• #14 UConn lost at home to Creighton, 68-63
• #15 Mississippi State lost at Auburn, 88-66
• #16 Gonzaga lost at Oregon State 97-89(OT) and at home to Santa Clara, 103-99
• #18 Memphis lost at Temple, 88-81
• #20 Michigan lost at Minnesota, 84-81(OT)
• #21 Ole Miss lost at Mississippi State 84-81(OT) (yes that's the same score as above)
• #22 Utah State lost at UNLV, 65-62
• #23 Georgia lost at Tennessee, 74-56 and at home to Auburn, 70-68
• #25 Baylor lost at Arizona, 81-70

That's 18 of the Top 25 that lost in the previous week. Only #1 Auburn, #3 Duke, #10 Houston, #12 Michigan State, #17 Purdue, #19 Illinois, and #24 Wisconsin avoided a loss.

Michigan State and Illinois play on Sunday, so it will be 19 teams with a loss. And Auburn and Houston escaped with very narrow wins on Saturday.

Not all of those losses were upsets but many were. And Saturday was a bloodbath for favorite teams, with 44 upsets according to Ken Pomeroy's ratings. Particularly hard hit were home teams; according to a quick hand count, 32 of the 44 upset victims were playing at home.

This impacted the Strength power rating in an interesting way: the home court advantage dropped from 3.13 to 3.00 overnight! That's a rare sight; normally it moves 0.01 or 0.02 if at all, even in the span of a full week.

But when home teams get beat, the needle moves and the ratings decided that playing at home isn't as much of an advantage as it had seemed. Interestingly, 3.00 is roughly where the numbers average out over the years, so getting back to that nice round number is a good thing, I think.

Tomorrow I'll figure out which teams benefitted from the carnage in the projected NCAA seedings. With so many upsets, just avoiding the carnage means moving up, but Auburn and Duke were already at the top of the heap. Houston looks to benefit as well as several Big Ten teams. But so many teams lost that some of the losers will move up too, depending on whether that loss was a big upset or a small, forgivable one.

Big SEC home court upsets: Ole Miss over Alabama; Missouri beats Florida

The SEC just keeps delivering big games and big upsets. Last night Florida and Alabama—both projected 1-seeds in the Dance Chance—were upset at home, by Missouri and Mississippi respectively. Missouri and Ole Miss were seen as middling SEC teams despite their 14-2 and 13-3 records before the games. They ranked as borderline top 25 teams in most power ratings and in the SEC, that's a middling team.

But Missouri beat Alabama 74-64 and Ole Miss won 83-82. If those had occurred at home it would be one thing, but a road win over either of these teams is a major accomplishment. It's getting harder and harder to see just how the SEC season is going to play out.

One thing remained constant: Auburn's domination. They beat a tough Mississippi State team (another "middling" SEC team) by 22 points without Johni Broome playing. That was at home, so we'll see how they do on the road without him but so far they haven't missed a step.

Kentucky also beat Texas A&M at home, an expected result with a more comfortable (81-69) margin than expected. 

The losses by Florida and Alabama reduce the SEC's odds of managing to get three 1-seeds, but increase the "packing" of SEC teams in the higher seed as Missouri and Ole Miss will be re-evaluated upwards with these big wins under their belts.

2024-24 Week 10 Dance Chance: Florida boots Tennessee from top seeds

Two new 1-seeds this week. Auburn remained on top with two hard-fought SEC road wins, though star Johni Broome had another injury scare. Duke beat Pitt and Notre Dame at home and joined the Tigers—whom they beat earlier this year—as near-locks for the tournament and over 50% in 1-seed odds. After that things changed: Despite suffering their first loss, to Kentucky, earlier in the week, Florida's massive 30-point win over Tennessee moves the Gators to the 1-line. Alabama, who like Auburn got two SEC road wins, takes the final 1-seed with the Volunteers close behind as the top 2-seed. All three teams have around 40% odds to end up a 1-seed, meaning the SEC has a decent shot at having three 1-seeds

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
  1. Auburn                 SEC  15-1  28-3   30-1  >99.9   0.0  93.9  +0.1    1    1 
  2. Duke                   ACC  14-2  28-3   29-2  >99.9   0.0  68.9  +0.4    1    1 
  3. Florida                SEC  15-1  26-5   27-4   99.1  +5.3  44.1 +23.9    1    2 
  4. Alabama                SEC  14-2  24-7   25-6   98.7  +3.4  41.6 +15.2    1    2 
  5. Tennessee              SEC  15-1  25-6   28-3   98.6  -1.0  41.0 -22.9    2    1 
  6. Houston                B12  12-3  25-6   28-3   97.2  +1.2  12.2  -3.2    2    2 
  7. Michigan               B10  13-3  24-7   28-3   96.7  +6.1  14.8  +6.5    2    3 
  8. Iowa St.               B12  14-1  26-5   27-4   96.4  +3.6  15.7  +3.8    2    3 
  9. Illinois               B10  12-4  23-8   25-6   96.0  -1.0  14.6 -12.6    3    1 
 10. Kentucky               SEC  13-3  22-9   25-6   95.7  +0.6  17.8  -6.1    3    2 

Illinois is the other 1-seed booted out of the top line and they fall to a 3-seed. The Illini started the week great, beating Penn State by 39 points before falling at home to USC in an 82-72 stunner. That left the Michigan Wolverines as the new favorite in the Big Ten after they beat UCLA 94-75 on the road and Washington 91-75 at home. Houston and Iowa State continued winning and hope to win the Big Twelve. All four teams have double digit 1-seed odds, and winning their conference tournament would give them a good shot, but right now Kentucky actually has the highest 1-seed odds outside the top 5 teams at 17.8%. The Wildcats fell to a 3-seed this week, however; after upsetting Florida they were upset in turn by Georgia, 82-69. 

The Bulldogs got a powerful 20% boost from that win, moving them off the play-in line to a 7-seed. Two other SEC teams fared well: Ole Miss beat Arkansas and LSU and jumped to a 6-seed at 14-2 ahead of their showdown at Alabama on Tuesday; and Missouri beat LSU and Vanderbilt to sit 13-3 ahead of their own showdown at Florida that same day. The Big Ten teams below didn't fare as well, with UCLA taking a big hit vs. Michigan as noted above, then losing 79-61 at Maryland. Their home game against Iowa on Friday will be played at home, or somewhere in the area, despite the L.A. fires. Ohio State may have demolished Oregon in football but the Buckeyes lost at home to the Ducks 73-71 last Thursday and they dropped a couple seeds.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 22. Mississippi            SEC  14-2  20-11  20-11  76.3 +18.9   1.0  +0.8    6   10 
 24. UCLA                   B10  11-5  20-11  24-7   75.6 -10.7  <0.1  -2.9    6    4 
 25. Pittsburgh             ACC  12-4  24-7   25-6   75.3 -10.0  <0.1  -2.2    7    4 
 26. Georgia                SEC  14-2  20-11  20-11  75.1 +20.6   0.3  +0.1    7   11p
 27. St. John's             BE   14-3  24-7   25-6   74.4 +10.5   0.1  +0.1    7    9 
 32. Missouri               SEC  13-3  20-11  18-13  69.7 +11.7   0.2  +0.1    8   10 
 34. Louisville             ACC  12-5  23-8   25-6   66.1 +11.2   0.0   0.0    9   11 
 35. Ohio St.               B10  10-6  19-12  19-12  65.8  -5.5  <0.1  -0.4    9    7 
 37. San Diego St.          MWC  10-4  22-7   24-5   63.9  -5.4   0.0   0.0   10    8 

Pittsburgh had a bad week, losing to Duke by 29 then falling to Louisville at home; this dropped them from 12-2 to 12-4 and from a projected 4-seed down to a 7-seed, while the Cardinals jumped to a 9-seed with a 5-1 start in the ACC. New 7-seed St. John's is also 5-1 in the Big East following wins over Xavier and Villanova. In the Mountain West, San Diego State slumped after losing 62-48 to New Mexico 62-48.

Speaking of the Lobos, they are now 6-0 in the MWC and moved off the play-in line but are still on the bubble, if you define that as the Last Eight In. Also surging and back in the seedings is UC Irvine, who beat fellow Big West contender UC San Diego on the road to claim unofficial conference leader status from the Tritons, who fell to an 11-seed. That gives the Big West two projected at-large teams in the tournament, which could happen if both continue to play well. Vanderbilt didn't play well last week, losing two games just after I talked them up for starting 13-1.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 39. UC Irvine              BW   15-2  28-4   30-2   61.2 +12.2   0.0   0.0   10      
 40. New Mexico             MWC  14-3  24-7   24-7   60.2  +9.9   0.0   0.0   10   12p
 41. Vanderbilt             SEC  13-3  19-12  18-13  57.3 -10.1   0.1  -0.4   11    8 
 42. UC San Diego           BW   14-3  27-5   28-4   57.1  -4.9   0.0   0.0   11   10 
 43. Saint Mary's           WCC  15-3  23-8   26-5   56.8 +13.0   0.0   0.0   11p     
 44. Nebraska               B10  12-4  19-12  17-14  54.2 -11.2   0.0  -0.1   11p   9 
 45. Iowa                   B10  12-4  19-12  17-14  51.2 +14.8   0.0   0.0   11p     
 46. Texas                  SEC  11-5  18-13  18-13  50.9  +2.4  <0.1  +0.1   11p     

Another SEC team, Texas, is one of three teams to join on the 11-seed play-in line. The Longhorns lost two games last week but still moved up as the Last Team In; their narrow losses to top overall seed Auburn (87-82) and former 1-seed Tennessee (74-70) were deemed positive results, which they were (except for the losing part). Imagine where they'd be if they had won one (or both) of those games! And Iowa re-joins after beating Indiana 85-60, and before that topping Nebraska in overtime. The Cornhuskers followed up that loss with another one at Purdue by the score of 104-68. Ouch! And the last team to join is St. Mary's, no surprise as the Gaels are in the tournament every year and the WCC can't be a 1-bid league can they?

Under the waterline: Four teams in means four teams fell out (five if you count Dayton, who remains the Atlantic 10 favorite despite a 1-2 start in the league): Arkansas lost twice at home to Ole Miss and Florida—neither a shameful result but the Razorbacks are 0-3 in the SEC and it doesn't get much easier; Penn State got crushed by Illinois 91-52 then lost at home to Oregon; SMU fell at North Carolina 82-67, again not a horrible result but the Mustangs were 2nd-to-Last Team In last week; and Cincinnati suffered their 3rd and 4th losses in a row, to Baylor and Kansas.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 47. Arkansas               SEC  11-5  18-13  18-13  50.6 -12.6  <0.1  -0.4         9 
 48. Penn St.               B10  12-5  19-12  18-13  49.9 -11.1   0.0   0.0        10 
 49. Dayton                 A10  11-5  22-9   24-7   47.7  -8.2   0.0   0.0   12   11 
 50. SMU                    ACC  12-4  22-9   25-6   47.6  -5.0   0.0   0.0        12p
 51. Oklahoma               SEC  13-3  18-13  16-15  46.6  -2.6   0.0   0.0           
 52. Creighton              BE   10-6  19-12  19-12  44.6  +7.9   0.0   0.0           
 53. Cincinnati             B12  10-5  19-12  20-11  42.0 -13.6   0.0   0.0        11 
 54. BYU                    B12  10-5  18-13  18-13  40.9  -7.9   0.0   0.0           

All in all not a great week for the teams that finished on the lower end of the bubble. Oklahoma is 13-3 after losing to Texas A&M and Georgia, though they only lost -2.6% of their odds from it. Our projection doesn't give them many wins going forward, so the losses don't ding their odds much. BYU also has lost three in a row in the Big Twelve. Creighton was the only team here that had a pleasant week, winning their only game at Butler.

There aren't many big winners below the bubble area, either, as almost every team is moving down in odds as reality sets in. I was high on St. Bonaventure last week when I realized they were 14-1; now they're 14-3 and dropped from 42% to 28% odds after falling to St. Louis and La Salle. Arizona State started 9-2 but they're 10-5 now after losing to Kansas and Baylor for a 1-3 start in the Big Twelve. Indiana got off to a 4-1 Big Ten start but hit a headwind at Iowa, losing by 25. Northwestern is now 1-4 in the same league after losing three in a row, most recently to Michigan State. 

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 59. Arizona St.            B12  10-5  17-14  17-14  33.0  -5.8   0.0   0.0           
 61. Indiana                B10  13-4  17-14  15-16  31.5  -5.1   0.0   0.0           
 64. St. Bonaventure        A10  14-3  23-8   25-6   28.0 -16.3   0.0   0.0           
 69. Northwestern           B10  10-6  16-15  17-14  23.1 -10.6   0.0   0.0           
 72. Washington St.         WCC  13-5  21-10  20-11  21.3 -20.7   0.0   0.0           
 73. USC                    B10  10-6  16-15  13-18  20.6 +11.4   0.0   0.0           
 74. Furman                 SC   14-2  24-6   27-3   20.4  -6.8   0.0   0.0   13   12 

USC, however, is bucking the downward trend. The Trojans did lose to Indiana on Wednesday but they upset 1-seed Illinois 82-72 to revive their flagging at-large hopes. They're only 2-3 in the conference so far but it was easily their best win of the season. Former Pac-12 teammates Washington State lost two games in their new league (the WCC). On Saturday they lost to Gonzaga by 13 which isn't bad at all, unfortunately before that they fell to lowly 6-14 Pacific in overtime, at home. That cut their at-large hopes in half. Furman still leads our Southern Conference projections despite losing to UNC Greensboro 84-67 last week.

Bradley was charging in the Missouri Valley and hoped to beat Drake and take over the Bulldogs' leadership position; instead the lost at home 64-57 and were almost upset at Illinois-Chicago. Another MVC hopeful, Northern Iowa, was upset at home by Murray State. In the Atlantic 10 George Mason slid despite two wins: they beat mediocre Richmond and UMass by 6 and 7 at home, respectively. Rhode Island needed overtime to beat the same mediocre Richmond team and lost to George Washington at home.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 76. Bradley                MVC  14-3  23-8   25-6   19.2  -7.9   0.0   0.0           
 78. George Mason           A10  12-5  21-10  23-8   17.6  -6.4   0.0   0.0           
 79. LSU                    SEC  11-5  15-16  12-19  16.8 -10.9   0.0   0.0           
 83. Rhode Island           A10  13-3  21-9   22-8   13.8 -10.9   0.0   0.0           
 85. Lipscomb               ASun 11-6  23-8   25-6   11.4 -11.2   0.0   0.0   13   13 
 86. San Francisco          WCC  14-5  20-11  20-11  11.4 -10.3   0.0   0.0           
 87. Northern Iowa          MVC  10-7  19-12  21-10  11.1  -7.0   0.0   0.0           

LSU proves that not every SEC team is excelling—not surprising since they're all playing each other. The Tigers lost their 3rd game in a row to start 0-3 in league play and look like a sub-.500 team when all is said and done. Lipscomb is pretty far and away the best team in the Atlantic Sun but they lost at home to Queens, 75-73 last Thursday. And San Francisco continues to slide down our rankings, dropping another 10% after losing to Santa Clara by 23 points on Saturday. The Dons are now the 6th-ranked WCC team, and the WCC might only get one team this year. It won't get six.

 All of the teams below lost more than half their existing odds. Nearly all are from minor or mid-major conferences and have middling overall records, something that rarely if even manifests into an at-large bid. CSUN (Cal-State Northridge, if you wondered), lost to both UC Irvine (which was expected) and CSU Bakersfield (which was not). South Dakota State once again swapped the Summit leadership with rival North Dakota State, this after the Jackrabbits fell to St. Thomas and Nebraska Omaha last week. UNLV and Butler are from solid conferences and theoretically could get back on the board but both lost twice last week, with the Bulldogs hurting especially hard after their NINTH loss in a row.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
114. CSUN                   BW   11-6  19-12  21-10   3.3  -5.1   0.0   0.0           
118. South Dakota St.       Sum  10-8  20-11  22-9    2.7  -5.2   0.0   0.0        14 
123. Butler                 BE    7-10 13-18  13-18   2.1  -8.9   0.0   0.0           
124. UNLV                   MWC   9-7  15-16  13-18   1.8  -5.8   0.0   0.0           
127. Troy                   SB   10-6  19-10  20-9    1.5  -5.5   0.0   0.0           
129. Illinois St.           MVC  10-7  18-13  18-13   1.4  -5.9   0.0   0.0           
139. Wichita St.            Amer 10-6  18-13  19-12   0.5  -8.2   0.0   0.0           

Troy also dropped two games after a decent 10-4 start, and worse, both were home games they coulda shoulda won. Illinois State lost twice (see a pattern?) and guess what? so did Wichita State, both upset losses by double digits, which is why the Shockers are down to 0.5% odds, or a 1 in 200 chance of somehow making it to at-large status.

Florida wipes out Tennessee, 73-43: how does it change power ratings?

Florida took an early lead and didn't look back, crushing the final D-I unbeaten Tennessee 73-43. It was supposed to be a battle of the unbeatens but Florida lost a few days ago at Kentucky, meaning that both the Gators and the Vols are 14-1 now.

Just out of curiosity, let's see what this one, lopsided result does to our power ratings: Strength, Success, and Overall.

Strength

This is a "pure points" rating—winner doesn't matter—and it's also unweighted (recent games don't count more). Here is the Strength ranking as of Sunday's games:

#   Team                     Record   Rating
1.  Auburn                    13-1     34.71
2.  Duke                      12-2     32.60
3.  Houston                   10-3     31.29
4.  Tennessee                 14-0     29.69
5.  Gonzaga                   12-4     29.39
6.  Illinois                  11-3     28.49
7.  Iowa St.                  12-1     26.52
8.  Alabama                   12-2     26.43
9.  Florida                   13-1     25.99

Tennessee was undefeated but rated below Auburn, Duke, and Houston in Strength. Florida was 9th going in to tonight's game. With a 3 point home edge, the expected result was Tennessee by about a point; the oddsmakers favored the Gators by 2.5, and the betting public pushed that to 3.5 points.

With tonight's result added in, we have:

#   Team                     Record   Rating
1.  Auburn                    13-1     34.69
2.  Duke                      12-2     32.58
3.  Houston                   10-3     31.26
4.  Gonzaga                   12-4     29.37
5.  Illinois                  11-3     28.29
6.  Florida                   14-1     28.00
7.  Tennessee                 14-1     27.64

What a difference a 30-point blowout makes! Tennessee fell three spots to #7 and Florida moved up 3 to #6. Overall Tennessee's rating fell by about two full points while Florida gained 2. Considering that I only added this one result, it makes sense. Still, it's rare when one result puts the winner ahead of the loser when the loser was almost 4 points better previously.

Now, Success: 

Success is a wins-losses-only rating, meaning score margin doesn't matter. So whether Florida won by a point or by 30, the result here would be the same. It does matter that they played at home. Here's the Success ratings before the game:

#   Team                     record    Rating
1.  Tennessee                 14-0     38.51
2.  Auburn                    13-1     31.30
3.  Kentucky                  12-2     21.29
4.  Mississippi St.           13-1     20.42
5.  Duke                      12-2     18.45
6.  Florida                   13-1     18.39

Tennessee was the clear #1 here at 14-0, with Auburn a solid 2nd place and everyone else including the Gators far behind. Florida's loss to Kentucky dropped them to #6 at 13-1. What does one home win do?

#   Team                     record    Rating
1.  Auburn                    13-1     31.09
2.  Tennessee                 14-1     29.26
3.  Florida                   14-1     28.43
4.  Kentucky                  12-2     23.53

Well, now Auburn's back at #1, best among the 1-loss teams in Success. Florida gains a lot of ground back—10 points worth—and Tennessee loses almost 10 points, but remains ahead of the Gators. The 30 points doesn't matter, and the home court is taken into account, so the result isn't seen as definitive just yet. In any event, the teams are very close. Note that Florida moves back ahead of Kentucky who just beat them a few days ago! This rating system doesn't know (or care) that Kentucky beat Florida by 6 and Florida beat Tennessee by 30.

Overall

This is the combination of the two ratings: it simply adds the scores together, accounting for both winning games and playing for style points. Prior to the game:

#   Team                     Record   Rating
1.  Tennessee                 14-0     68.21
2.  Auburn                    13-1     66.01
3.  Duke                      12-2     51.05
4.  Kentucky                  12-2     46.90
5.  Iowa St.                  12-1     44.72
6.  Florida                   13-1     44.39

Tennessee was barely ahead of Auburn as of Monday, the Vols having enough of a lead in Success to offset Auburn's lead in Strength. Florida was 9th in Strength and 6th in Success, good enough for 6th place overall.

#   Team                     Record   Rating
1.  Auburn                    13-1     65.79
2.  Tennessee                 14-1     56.91
3.  Florida                   14-1     56.43
4.  Duke                      12-2     50.87
5.  Kentucky                  12-2     49.26
6.  Iowa St.                  12-1     44.42

The teams are so close in Strength that it ends up being the larger difference in Success that gives Tennessee about a 1/2 point edge overall. In any case it's pretty much even after the 30-point blowout. Does that make sense? Why isn't Florida ahead? Well, what do you think the line will be when Tennessee gets a shot at revenge in February 1st?

Only Auburn passes Tennessee, while Florida moves past Iowa State, Kentucky, and Duke. This gives the SEC the top three spots in the country, and 4 of the top 5!

Note that this doesn't include any other games played since Sunday. When those are figured in, a lot could change (Auburn is playing Texas as I type this, while Duke has demolished Pitt, and Kentucky lost to Georgia. Iowa State leads Utah. I normally update twice a week until football season is over but I'll make an exception tomorrow morning, there's too much going on!

Addendum: Where does this game rank among the year's best performances?

Seems like it should be pretty close to the top:

1.  Kansas 99, @UCF 48
2.  Auburn 91, =Ohio St. 53
3.  Gonzaga 113, UMass Lowell 54
4.  Illinois 109, @Oregon 77
5.  Arkansas 109, Maryland Eastern Shore 35
6.  Alabama 110, UNC Asheville 54
7.  Florida 73, Tennessee 43

Florida's win is only #7. Auburn's win over Ohio State is only #2 after Kansas beat Central Florida by 51. Gonzaga's best win was over Baylor by 38 in the opener until they topped UMass-Lowell by 59. If we filter out the mega-blowouts and consider only power-conference games, Florida over Tennessee is 3rd after the big wins by Auburn and Illinois. Ignoring margin of victory, though, it's probably 2nd to Duke's win over Auburn. 

2024 Week 7: SEC eyes two 1-seeds, three 2-seeds?

Another week, another Dance Chance projection with Auburn at the very top. A 41-point win over Georgia State and an 18 point win over Purdue didn't do anything but solidify the Tigers' position as the overall top 1-seed. They're very nearly a "lock" for the 2025 tournament and an astoundingly good bet for a 1-seed already in late 2024. Undefeated Tennessee is almost as certain a bet at 70% odds for a 1-seed, giving the SEC the two top teams. Duke is looking good for a 1-seed, but Gonzaga has just a 5.8% chance of remaining a 1-seed despite taking the 4th spot in today's projection. This is because their remaining schedule is easier and they rarely project below a 2-seed, while other teams have a greater "spread" of outcome. They play UCLA on Saturday, a game that might have a big effect on whether they take the last 1-seed or not, as their remaining schedule is on the easy side.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
  1. Auburn                 SEC  11-1  28-3   30-1  >99.9  +0.2  90.7  +3.6    1    1 
  2. Tennessee              SEC  11-0  27-4   30-1   98.9  +1.0  69.6  +7.9    1    1 
  3. Duke                   ACC  10-2  27-4   29-2   97.7  +1.0  41.9  +3.2    1    1 
  4. Gonzaga                WCC   9-3  27-4   28-3   94.7  -0.3   5.8  -4.6    1    1 
  5. Houston                B12   8-3  25-6   28-3   93.9  +1.4  18.0  +0.8    2    2 
  6. Kentucky               SEC  10-2  22-9   25-6   92.1  -1.9  27.6 -10.2    2    2 
  7. Alabama                SEC  10-2  22-9   25-6   90.9  -0.8  25.2  -7.8    2    2 
  8. Florida                SEC  12-0  24-7   26-5   90.8  +7.3  22.7  +6.6    2    3 

The current 2-seeds all have a much higher chance of getting a 1-seed than Gonzaga but they also have tougher schedules and thus have more ways to earn a 1-seed as well as a higher chance to screw it up than the Zags do. Houston, once 4-3, is now 8-3 and the Cougars outlook is good, and the 2-line now contains three more SEC teams, all with 20%+ odds of reaching the 1-line: fighting it out will be Kentucky, Alabama, and Florida. The Wildcats had a poor week, losing by 20 to Ohio State, a team Auburn beat by 38, resulting in a double-digit loss in 1-seed odds without dropping the 'Cats out of the 2-line. Alabama underperformed at North Dakota, winning by just 7 points. Florida shined however, remaining unbeaten with a win at North Carolina and a 54-point beatdown of North Florida.

The teams currently on the 3-line each has around a 10% shot at a 1-seed. Marquette drops to a 3-seed after tepid wins over Butler and Xavier but remains tops in the Big East. Maryland takes over as top dog in the Big Ten after crushing St. Francis 111-57 and beating Syracuse 87-60, just edging past Illinois who remains a 3-seed after beating Missouri 80-77 in St. Louis. Iowa State is the #2 Big Twelve team currently, their only loss to Auburn. The Cyclones pummeled Morgan State 99-72.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
  9. Marquette              BE   11-2  25-6   28-3   89.3  +1.5   9.5  -1.6    3    2 
 10. Maryland               B10  10-2  25-7   28-4   89.0  +8.9  10.7  +5.2    3    4 
 11. Illinois               B10   8-3  23-8   27-4   88.7  +1.8  14.1  -1.4    3    3 
 12. Iowa St.               B12  10-1  25-6   27-4   88.4  +1.3  13.3  -1.0    3    3 
 13. Connecticut            BE   10-3  24-7   27-4   83.0  -0.3   2.5  -0.6    4    3 
 17. Mississippi St.        SEC  11-1  22-9   23-8   78.6  +7.1   7.6  +1.8    5    5 
 18. Ohio St.               B10   8-4  21-10  23-8   77.6 +12.8   3.6  +2.0    5    8 
 19. Oregon                 B10  11-1  22-9   21-10  75.0  +5.0   2.3  +0.1    5    6 

Connecticut, like Marquette, had trouble with both Xavier and Butler, needing overtime to beat the Musketeers and edging the Bulldogs by 4 points. Mississippi State is yet another SEC team with reasonable designs on a 1-seed; they're at 7.6%, meaning current ly-projected 1-seed Gonzaga is actually 12th in 1-seed odds! These Bulldogs beat Memphis on the road and only have one loss, to Butler (Butler is giving everyone fits despite being just 7-6!). And both Ohio State and Oregon had solid weeks, leading a huge swath of Big Ten teams in the 5- and 6-seed lines. The Buckeyes of course crushed Kentucky in New York, 85-65, propping them up 3 seeds, while the Ducks beat former Pac-12 rival Stanford 76-61 and are off to an 11-1 start.

I've been sleeping on St. John's, I have to admit. Last year's team came on strong at the end and might have made waves in the Dance if they'd been selected; it seems the momentum has carried through to this season where the Red Storm are 10-2 after beating DePaul 89-61 and Providence 72-70 on the road. Arizona got off to a rocky 4-5 start but last week was a good one, with the Wildcats beating Samford by 32 and Central Michigan 94-41(!). They need to beat the good teams, though, if they want a better seed than 8, though that is much better than being on the bubble like last week. Memphis and Dayton both took a hit last week, the Tigers losing to Mississippi State at home and the Flyers falling to Cincinnati.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 25. St. John's             BE   10-2  23-8   25-6   69.6  +6.5   0.7  +0.3    7    8 
 28. Memphis                Amer  9-3  25-6   28-3   66.1  -4.7   0.0  -0.2    7    5 
 30. Arizona                B12   6-5  19-12  21-10  65.4 +13.1   0.5  +0.2    8   11 
 31. Dayton                 A10  10-3  25-6   27-4   65.2  -0.7   0.0   0.0    8    7 
 32. San Diego St.          MWC   8-2  22-7   24-5   64.1  +6.6  <0.1   0.0    8    9 
 33. Clemson                ACC  10-3  22-9   24-7   64.0  -4.6   0.1  -0.3    9    6 
 35. Texas Tech             B12   9-2  21-10  20-11  61.1  +9.6   0.7  +0.6    9   11p

San Diego State, currently our #2 MWC team, beat Cal 71-50 and faces MWC #1 Utah State this Saturday, while Clemson, currently #3 ACC, lost their 2nd overtime game in a row at South Carolina and dropped to a 9-seed. Texas Tech had a fun week, beating up Oral Roberts by 36 and Lamar by 44, which took them off the play-in line in a big way. The Red Raiders don't have any quality wins so they'll have to have a strong Big Twelve season, which is looking more likely with their improvement in Strength rating.

The Bubble: We start off with two more SEC teams, Arkansas who has been here for a while, and Mississippi who dropped here from a 10-seed despite wins over Southern and Queens that weren't amazing enough (13 and 18 points) to meet the expectations of a 10-seed. As SEC teams #12 and #13 they won't get the benefit of the doubt. SMU, on the other hand, might get some leeway as they are only ACC team #5. Once again Drake resides here; they got a decent win at Kansas State but they followed that up with just a 10-point home win over lackluster Green Bay (yes, the team that lost to Michigan Tech).

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 41. Arkansas               SEC  10-2  19-12  19-12  55.0  +2.5   0.7  -0.5   11   11 
 42. Mississippi            SEC  11-1  19-12  18-13  53.7  -1.8   0.9  -0.6   11   10 
 43. SMU                    ACC  10-2  23-8   26-5   53.7  +2.8  <0.1   0.0   11p  12p
 44. Drake                  MVC  11-0  26-4   29-1   49.0  -0.8   0.0   0.0   11   12 
 45. West Virginia          B12   9-2  18-13  18-13  47.8  +2.1  <0.1  -0.1   11p     
 46. Nevada                 MWC   8-4  22-9   24-7   47.5  -4.7   0.0   0.0   12p  11p
 47. UC Irvine              BW   10-2  26-6   29-3   47.3  -8.1   0.0   0.0   12   10 
 48. Iowa                   B10   9-3  19-12  18-13  46.9  +7.5  <0.1   0.0   12p     

West Virginia is new to the seedings, as is Iowa who has been just below the waterline for many weeks. The Hawkeyes got a solid win over Utah on Saturday to propel them to Last Team In. Nevada holds on as a play-in team, giving the Mountain West three teams, while Big West leader UC Irvine last to Duquesne 70-54, reinforcing the idea that the Anteaters' Dance hopes will probably come down to the Big West tournament.

Saint Mary's took a huge hit and fell below the waterline from a 9-seed; the Gaels lost at home to Utah State 75-68 but almost as bad was their way-too-close 73-68 home win over Merrimack, a game they should have cleared by at least 15. This left Gonzaga as the only West Coast Conference rep in the tournament, though the Gaels are joined by new WCC members Oregon State and Washington State in the lower bubble. Another team slipping out of the seedings is former WCC member BYU; even a 103-57 win over Florida A&M didn't keep them afloat.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 49. BYU                    B12   9-2  19-12  20-11  45.8  -1.3   0.1  +0.1        12p
 50. Oregon St.             WCC   9-2  22-7   23-6   45.8  +1.5   0.0   0.0           
 51. Vanderbilt             SEC  11-1  18-13  16-15  45.1 +12.8   0.2  +0.2           
 52. Saint Mary's           WCC  10-3  22-9   23-8   45.0 -11.9   0.0   0.0         9 
 53. UC San Diego           BW   11-2  27-5   29-3   44.8  +6.4   0.0   0.0           
 54. Washington St.         WCC  10-3  22-9   22-9   42.4  -4.5   0.0   0.0           
 55. Louisville             ACC   7-5  20-11  22-9   41.8  +7.7   0.0   0.0           
 56. Boise St.              MWC   9-3  22-9   23-8   40.6  -2.2   0.0   0.0           

Vanderbilt at 11-1 is finally starting to convince our algorithm that they aren't last year's 9-23 teams; they're up almost 13% this week after beating The Citadel by 52 and Austin Peay by 30. The Commodores will have to navigate the SEC, which is now the toughest basketball conference, and they're 14th in line at the moment. But check out UC San Diego, whom I mentioned last week as having a great opportunity vs. Utah State; they made the most of it, beating the Aggies 75-73 on the road. Their followup vs. lowly San Diego wasn't as impressive (77-71) but they're closer to at-large consideration in the Big West, thought realistically they'll probably have to beat Irvine in the conference tournament. Louisville won the showdown of ACC-turnaround teams, beating Florida State 90-76 in Tallahassee, while Boise State currently projects as MWC team #4.

And below we see the effect the big home loss had on the Seminoles, who fell farther off the bubble going into ACC season. Also dropping were Utah (lost to Iowa) and Creighton (lost at Georgetown). Bradley got a good win over San Francisco and looks to challenge Drake in the Missouri Valley; meanwhile the 66-64 loss puts the Dons in the dumps, down almost 15% when combined with their followup 4-point home win over Montana.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 61. Utah                   B12   8-3  18-13  19-12  36.4  -8.1  <0.1  -0.2           
 65. Bradley                MVC  10-2  24-7   27-4   32.3  +8.7   0.0   0.0           
 68. Creighton              BE    8-5  17-14  17-14  29.3  -6.9   0.0   0.0           
 69. Florida St.            ACC   9-4  19-12  20-11  28.3  -6.8   0.0   0.0           
 70. San Francisco          WCC  10-3  21-10  22-9   28.3 -14.9   0.0   0.0           
 74. North Texas            Amer  9-3  21-9   25-5   23.7  -7.2   0.0   0.0           
 79. Northern Iowa          MVC   7-5  20-11  23-8   19.9  +5.3   0.0   0.0           
 83. Florida Atlantic       Amer  7-6  20-11  22-9   16.4  -6.3   0.0   0.0           

Northern Iowa had a mixed week with a positive spin; they fell to Washington State 76-68 on a neutral court, but the loss was expected. They also beat Montana 104-76 when they were expected to win by less than 10 points, so their Dance Chance odds jumped 5.3% in the end. North Texas had one of the more interesting weeks, winning three games but falling 7.2%!! The Mean Green beat Mississippi Valley 83-42, Appalachian State 68-64, and Houston Christian 62-46, all at home. The first game was a blowout against arguably the worst team in Division I which exceeded expectations, but they next two did not, especially the App State game. In the end it lowered their Strength rating by 3 points, and another game affected their Strength, too: Stephen F Austin beat Texas Wesleyan by 26 points, and back in November the Mean Green beat Texas Wesleyan just 73-66. That docked them another 1.5 points! All in all their projection changed by just 1 game, from 22-8 to 21-9, but it makes the American Athletic conference look like a certain 1-bid league. Florida Atlantic getting off to a 7-6 start doesn't help on that front.

Wichita State also stumbled, losing to Kansas City (formerly known as UMKC) 74-64 at home, meaning every decent AAC team was down from last week. The Big East saw DePaul lose twice by 20+ points but Georgetown started the conference season 2-0 with wins over Creighton and Seton Hall; last year the Hoyas won two conference games TOTAL. Loyola Chicago lost to Oakland in Hawaii, their 2nd loss in 3 outings, both on neutral courts and putting them in single digits for at-large hopes.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 85. DePaul                 BE    8-4  16-15  15-16  14.5  -5.3   0.0   0.0           
 86. Georgetown             BE   10-2  17-14  14-17  13.8  +7.4   0.0   0.0           
 94. Stanford               ACC   9-3  18-13  19-12  11.6  -7.4   0.0   0.0           
 98. Wichita St.            Amer  9-3  21-10  22-9   10.7  -5.2   0.0   0.0           
106. Loyola Chicago         A10   9-2  18-11  19-10   8.3  -6.8   0.0   0.0           
130. UC Santa Barbara       BW    7-5  19-12  21-10   3.3  -5.2   0.0   0.0           
146. James Madison          SB    6-6  19-11  23-7    1.5  -5.1   0.0   0.0           
212. Merrimack              MAAC  5-8  17-14  22-9    0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   16p  16p
277. Colgate                PAT   3-10 13-18  16-15   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0        16p

Stanford not only lost to Oregon but got a scare from Merrimack, winning just 74-68. Not that's not deja vu, Merrimack lost to St. Mary's 73-68 and at Stanford 74-68. Their Strength jumped from #231 to #198 but their Dance Chance odds remained 0.1%, which still seems generous for a 5-8 team in a minor conference. The Warriors are the favorite to win the Metro Atlantic, however. Colgate was last week's favorite in the Patriot League but this week they're in 4th place following a 79-73 home loss to Iona which gave the Raiders a 3-10 start (only one team in the Patriot has a winning record so far). Both UC Santa Barbara and James Madison lost twice last week and shed most of their slim remaining hopes to get in the Dance any other way than winning the Big West and Sun Belt tournaments, respectively.

2024 week 5: Can the SEC get three 1-seeds?

Auburn tasted defeat for the first time, falling to Duke 84-78 last Wednesday. But the Tigers already have wins over Houston and Iowa State and rank near the top of the Strength power rating, so a road loss to another top seed doesn't kick them out of the projected overall 1-seed spot. In fact their odds of getting a 1-seed increased to nearly 3 in 4 after a 98-54 blowout of Richmond. With new AP #1 Tennessee undefeated and Kentucky surging after beating Gonzaga last Saturday, the SEC has three projected 1-seeds! Can it stay this way until March?

History says it's not likely; only in 2009 and 2019 has a conference had three 1-seeds. Tennessee has over 50% odds now while Kentucky—who lost to Clemson before the Gonzaga win—comes in at 44% Two 1-seeds happens almost every other year so we'll call that the likely scenario for the SEC. Gonzaga fell to just 19.1% in 1-seed odds while Duke is up to 29.4% but the Zags hang on, barely, to the last 1-spot. Gonzaga needs big wins in the pre-conference season to get a 1-seed, as their opportunities dry up in January in the WCC. The Bulldogs face UConn on Saturday.

                                       Record             Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
  1. Auburn                 SEC   8-1  27-4   30-1   98.7  +1.1  73.7  +6.7    1    1 
  2. Tennessee              SEC   8-0  26-5   29-2   96.2  +2.1  55.4  +7.8    1    1 
  3. Kentucky               SEC   8-1  24-7   27-4   94.3  +3.6  44.1  +8.1    1    2 
  4. Gonzaga                WCC   7-2  27-4   29-2   94.3  +0.6  19.1 -13.4    1    1 
  5. Duke                   ACC   7-2  26-5   29-2   93.9  +6.9  29.4 +11.4    2    2 
  6. Houston                B12   5-3  25-6   28-3   92.1  +1.1  18.6  -0.9    2    1 
  7. Alabama                SEC   7-2  23-8   25-6   90.9  +4.6  31.4  +5.8    2    2 
  8. Marquette              BE    9-1  26-5   29-2   87.3  +6.1  14.3  +4.6    2    3

For Duke, it was three's a charm, the Blue Devils having lost to Kentucky and Kansas in nail-biters before finally winning a big one. Houston's 1-seed odds dipped to 18.6%; despite beating Butler 79-51, they lost most of their big pre-conference games including one to Alabama, whose 1-seed odds are 4th best at 31.4%. A lot of that is due to opportunity in the SEC season, though they did just beat North Carolina. And new 2-seed Marquette had a split week, with Saturday's win over WIsconsin more than making for their first loss at Iowa State days before.

Only two other teams have double-digits odds for getting a 1-seed presently, Illinois and Florida. Florida, like Alabama, has the rich SEC season to mine for Quad-1 wins.The Illini are tops in the Big Ten despite their overtime loss to Northwestern on Friday which knocked them to a 3-seed; they face Tennessee on Saturday. Three other Big Ten teams below are looking to replace Purdue at the top: Ohio State slipped a bit with an 83-59 loss at Maryland, who parlayed that into a 3-seed-level gain despite losing on the road to Purdue on Sunday. Penn State keeps exceeding expectations as they actually topped the Boilermakers 81-70 on Thursday.

                                       Record             Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
  9. Illinois               B10   6-2  23-8   27-4   86.3  +3.0  23.5  +1.0    3    2 
 13. Florida                SEC   9-0  23-8   25-6   77.0  +5.2  11.3  +1.1    4    5 
 14. Pittsburgh             ACC   8-2  24-7   27-4   74.2  -2.3   2.1  -5.0    4    3 
 15. Ohio St.               B10   6-3  21-10  23-8   74.1  -0.4   7.1  -2.2    4    4 
 16. Maryland               B10   8-2  24-8   25-7   74.0 +14.6   3.5  +2.2    4    7 
 17. Penn St.               B10   8-1  23-8   25-6   71.8 +12.9   3.4  +2.0    5    8 
 19. Kansas                 B12   7-2  21-10  22-9   71.3  -2.9   3.4  -5.7    5    4 
 20. Clemson                ACC   9-1  24-7   26-5   70.0 +15.8   1.8  +1.3    5   10 
 24. Cincinnati             B12   7-1  22-9   25-6   64.4  -7.8   2.2  -5.4    6    4 

Clemson had a big week, jumping from a 10-seed to a 5-seed on the strength of a 70-66 win over 1-seed Kentucky. It didn't hurt that Kentucky beat Gonzaga later last week, nor that Penn State is off to an 8-1 start too. ACC-mates Pitt suffered a setback with a 90-57 loss to Mississippi State. In the Big Twelve both Kansas and Cincy lost ground; the Bearcats lost to Villanova 68-60 while the #1 AP Jayhawks lost twice, first to Creighton 76-63, then Missouri 76-67, both on the road. 

Most of the new 7-seeds got there by falling from above, like North Carolina who lost to Alabama 94-79 at home then beat Georgia Tech by just three points. Arizona crushed Southern Utah 102-66 but their 4 losses are catching up to them as our power ratings further separate them from last year's results. And Utah State might have gotten ahead of themselves a bit, with their close call 70-67 home win over Wyoming the likely cause of their 1-seed-line drop. They're still undefeated though, and that's a rarity already in the college basketball world! Michigan bucked the trend by joining the 7-line from below, with a win at Wisconsin and narrow win over Iowa at home powering the Wolverines to an 8-1 start. The Badgers lost twice last week (also to Marquette), their first defeats of the season dropping them 3 seed lines.

                                       Record             Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 25. North Carolina         ACC   5-4  21-11  24-8   64.0  -7.5   1.4  -3.0    7    5 
 26. Michigan               B10   8-1  21-10  23-8   63.6 +12.8   2.9  +1.3    7   11 
 27. Arizona                B12   4-4  20-11  22-9   63.3  -4.5   1.5  -1.5    7    5 
 28. Utah St.               MWC   9-0  25-6   27-4   63.1  -3.0   1.0  -0.2    7    6 
 29. UCLA                   B10   8-1  21-10  22-9   62.7 +14.0   2.0  +0.9    8   11p
 31. Wisconsin              B10   8-2  20-11  22-9   61.3  -7.8   1.7  -4.1    8    5 
 32. Memphis                Amer  7-2  24-7   26-5   60.4  -0.4  <0.1  -0.5    8    7 
 38. Texas                  SEC   7-2  19-12  21-10  53.1  -3.5   1.2  -1.2   10    8 
 39. Oklahoma               SEC   9-0  20-11  18-13  51.6  -2.9   1.3  -0.4   10   10 
 40. Texas Tech             B12   7-2  20-11  20-11  51.6  -2.7   0.2  -1.0   10   10 

UCLA surged ahead by becoming the first team to beat Oregon, 73-71, on the road even; they face Arizona Saturday. Texas and Oklahoma are facing the reality of a very tough SEC schedule, which has the undefeated Sooners projected to go as bad as 9-13 going forward. Texas lost their undefeated record to UConn, 76-65 at home. Texas Tech, still in the Big Twelve, fell to Texas A&M 72-67 on Sunday.

The Bubble: Two Big Twelve teams dropped into the bubble region. BYU fell 83-64 to unheralded Providence while Utah lost 72-63 to St. Mary's at home. But the SEC was all successes here: Georgia improved their lost from a 12-seed play-in to the top 11-seed with a 69-48 win over Notre Dame, while Missouri and Mississippi scored wins over Kansas and Louisville respectively to give the Southeast Conference a gaudy TWELVE teams in our seedings. That's crazy—and probably too good to last the conference season, much like their three 1-seeds.

                                       Record             Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev 41. Georgia                SEC   8-1  19-12  18-13  51.3  +6.6   1.5  +0.8   11   12p
 42. BYU                    B12   6-2  20-11  23-8   51.2 -12.6   0.4  -3.0   11    6 
 43. Nevada                 MWC   6-3  23-8   24-7   50.7 -11.2   0.0  -0.3   11    7 
 44. Utah                   B12   6-2  19-12  23-8   50.5  -5.6   0.4  -1.9   11p   9 
 45. Washington St.         WCC   8-2  22-9   24-7   48.5 +11.6  <0.1  -0.1   11p      
 46. Missouri               SEC   8-1  19-12  18-13  46.3  +8.7   0.7  +0.3   12p     
 47. Drake                  MVC   8-0  24-5   28-1   45.2  +0.3  <0.1  -0.1   12   12 
 48. Mississippi            SEC   8-1  18-13  15-16  44.8 +10.9   0.4  +0.2   12p     /pre>

Nevada's fall was Washington State's gain, literally, as the Cougars beat the Wolf Pack 68-57 in Pullman. The Cougars also beat Boise State while Nevada lost to Loyola Marymount, the result being both teams are 11-seeds now. Drake is still undefeated but still borderline.

Boise's loss to Washington State knocks them out of the seedings but the Broncos are still in the Last Four Out, along with SMU (beat Virginia 63-51 on Saturday), San Francisco (beat St. Louis 78-61 last week), and Iowa (beat Northwestern by a point and lost at Michigan by 2 points).

                                       Record             Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 49. SMU                    ACC   8-2  21-10  24-7   44.5  +2.4   0.1   0.0           
 50. San Francisco          WCC   7-2  22-9   25-6   44.0  +1.5   0.0  -0.1           
 51. Boise St.              MWC   6-3  21-10  24-7   41.4  -7.8   0.0  -0.1        11p
 52. Iowa                   B10   7-2  18-13  16-15  40.4  +2.0   0.1  -0.3           
 53. VCU                    A10   7-2  23-8   27-4   40.2  +6.1   0.0   0.0           
 54. Arkansas               SEC   7-2  18-13  16-15  40.1  +3.7   0.3  +0.2           
 55. Indiana                B10   7-2  17-14  13-18  38.0  +6.7  <0.1  -0.2           
 56. Creighton              BE    7-3  18-13  20-11  37.8  +5.2  <0.1  -0.1           

VCU had a good week, beating Georgia Southern and Penn by 35 and 19, while Arkansas beat Miami and UTSA. Indiana beat Sam Houston and Miami (Ohio), while Creighton improved surprisingly little for beating Kansas 76-63 at home. They face Alabama this Saturday and winning that would put them back in the seedings for sure.

Two other teams dropped from last week's seedings: New Mexico and Nebraska. The Lobos lost to New Mexico State at home in overtime, and the Cornhuskers were crushed 89-52 by Michigan State, sinking their seasonal outlook to 16-13. McNeese lost to Santa Clara, putting them 4-4 on the year before beating non-D-I LeTourneau 103-69. The Cowboys are still favorites in their conference (the Southland) however. 

                                       Record             Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 58. New Mexico             MWC   7-3  21-10  23-8   35.5 -14.4   0.0  -0.1        11 
 64. Nebraska               B10   6-2  16-13  16-13  33.6 -10.1   0.2  -0.2        12p
 75. McNeese                Slnd  5-4  24-8   27-5   25.9 -10.3   0.0   0.0   12   12 
 79. Villanova              BE    6-4  17-14  16-15  21.4 +10.6   0.0   0.0           
 94. TCU                    B12   5-4  14-17  12-19  12.4 -10.3   0.0   0.0           
110. Washington             B10   6-3  14-17  10-21   8.9 -12.1   0.0  -0.1           

Villanova is 6-4 and barely projected to have a winning record, but that puts them a few wins within consideration and they're up 10% from last week after their upset of Cincinnati. TCU and Washington are both projected to have losing records and miss the tournament; the Horned Frogs are down to 12.4% after losing to Vanderbilt for a 5-4 start, while the Huskies are in single digits after losses to UCLA and USC in their inaugural Big Ten season.

2024-25 Week 2 Dance Chance update

Week 2 and we have two new #1 seeds, Gonzaga and UConn. Gonzaga still riding the wave of their big win over Baylor, UConn moving up after posting larger-margins wins over their low-ranked opponents. Auburn and Houston stay put at #1 overall seed and #2.

                                       Record             Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg  1seed %chg  seed prev
  1. Auburn                 SEC   3-0  24-5   29-0   91.0  +4.9  44.9 +10.0    1    1 
  2. Houston                B12   2-1  26-5   29-2   89.1  +6.1  36.6  +8.6    1    1 
  3. Gonzaga                WCC   3-0  25-4   28-1   86.4 +13.2  24.7 +11.6    1    2 
  4. Connecticut            BE    3-0  25-4   29-0   84.3  +4.1  25.3  +2.2    1    2  
  5. Purdue                 B10   4-0  24-6   29-1   83.0  -0.1  26.3  -7.5    2    1 
  6. Tennessee              SEC   4-0  24-6   28-2   82.4  +8.6  26.5  +9.4    2    2 
  7. Arizona                B12   2-1  22-7   28-1   80.8  -1.6  24.2  -8.5    2    1 
  8. Alabama                SEC   3-1  22-9   25-6   77.1  +7.4  19.8  -1.1    2    3 

Purdue is obviously adjusting to their new reality (our pre-season rankings were last season's rankings) and without Zack Edey they aren't a 1-seed. Still, they managed to beat Alabama 87-78 at home, but apparently that was a good thing for Alabama who moved up to a 2-seed! These seedings are prior to Purdue's loss to Marquette, so go figure. Arizona's fall from a 1-seed makes more sense, as they lost at Wisconsin 103-88.

That win boosted Wisconsin's Dance Chance by almost 13% and the Badgers move up to a 4-seed. Kentucky also got a big boost last week with a win over Duke in Atlanta, 77-72. And Cincinnati has posted three very solid wins so far, the latest over decent Nicholls, 86-49. But the big rebound of the week is Baylor, who shook off their huge Gonzaga loss with 104-67 and 104-41 wins over Sam Houston State and Tarleton State. They regained 6 of the 7 seed lines they lost in week one! Who said exciting things aren't happening in the NCAA bracket projections?

                                       Record             Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg  1seed %chg  seed prev
 10. Kentucky               SEC   3-0  23-8   24-7   72.8 +12.2  14.6  +6.5    3    4 
 14. Wisconsin              B10   4-0  21-9   25-5   65.4 +12.8   6.8  +0.9    4    5 
 17. Cincinnati             B12   3-0  22-9   24-7   61.2 +11.7   6.4  +2.1    5    6 
 20. Baylor                 B12   3-1  19-11  19-11  58.6 +16.0   7.3  +3.2    5   11  
 22. Michigan St.           B10   3-1  19-10  26-3   57.0  -2.2   4.5  -4.5    6    4 
 24. Florida Atlantic       Amer  3-2  22-7   26-3   56.2  -3.6   0.1  -3.9    6    4 

News wasn't as good for Michigan State and Florida Atlantic. The Spartans fell to Kansas in Atlanta, and the Owls dropped two of three games last week, losing to UCF by 6, to Charleston in OT, and beating Liberty in OT. 

Texas Tech and Texas jumped to the 7-line, the Red Raiders mainly due to beating Wyoming 96-49, and the Longhorns from beating two very bad teams by 40+ point margins (and moving them back ahead of the team that beat them in week 1, Ohio State). Penn State made had another big week, beating Virginia Tech 86-64 in Baltimore. The Nittany Lions started at #87 in the pre-season, jumped to a 12-seed play-in team last week, and are now a projected 8-seed. For comparison, they started at #66 in KenPom and are now #33.

                                       Record             Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg  1seed %chg  seed prev
 27. Texas Tech             B12   3-0  20-10  20-10  53.4 +10.0   4.8  +1.9    7   10 
 28. Texas                  SEC   3-1  20-10  21-9   53.4 +11.0   3.7  +2.1    7   11  
 31. Penn St.               B10   4-0  21-9   25-5   52.0 +13.2   3.2  +2.0    8   12p
 35. Creighton              BE    4-0  21-10  26-5   50.1  -1.2   3.0  -1.4    9    6 
 37. Texas A&M              SEC   3-1  19-12  19-12  48.9 +11.3   2.4  +0.9   10      
 38. San Francisco          WCC   4-0  22-8   24-6   48.0 +11.8   0.9  +0.5   10      
 39. Washington St.         WCC   3-1  21-9   23-7   48.0  -1.3   0.8  -1.6   10    7 

Creighton and Washington State fell three seeds each, the Blue Jays despite logging two blowouts. Maybe beating Houston Christian by 35 isn't enough to hold a 6-seed? I dunno. The Cougars lost to Iowa in Moline, IL 76-66, and were favored based on last season's performance; clearly the Cougars suffered an exodus due to their conference dispersing, as they ended up in the West Coast Conference. Jumping in at 10-seed is another WCC team, San Francisco who beat Chicago State 82-37, and Texas A&M who rebounded from their loss to UCF by beating Ohio State 78-64. 

The bubble:

                                       Record             Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg  1seed %chg  seed prev
 41. New Mexico             MWC   3-1  22-8   25-5   45.7  -6.1   0.4  -2.9   11    5 
 42. Oklahoma               SEC   3-0  19-10  22-7   45.7  +1.5   2.0  -0.4   11   10 
 43. San Diego St.          MWC   2-0  20-9   21-8   43.7  -5.2   0.9  -2.1   11p   7 
 44. Clemson                ACC   3-1  20-10  25-5   42.3  -6.9   0.5  -3.1   11p   7 
 45. Dayton                 A10   4-0  22-7   25-4   41.7  -6.2   0.5  -0.9   11    8  

The Mountain West race is hopefully going to be as good this year as it was last season. New Mexico opened as a 5-seed but last week's loss to St. John's (85-71) put them in their place. Another team that was great last year but not expected to do as well this season is San Diego State, and their 80-67 loss to Gonzaga has started the correction process. Oklahoma is a bubble team in their new conference, while Clemson's loss to Boise State put them on the bubble for now. Dayton is expected to win the Atlantic 10 but if they don't they might end up being a borderline at-large selection. Beating non-DI team Capitol just 76-55 does not instill confidence.

Oregon and TCU are the last two teams above the waterline. TCU lost to Michigan while Oregon needed overtime to beat Portland at home.

                                       Record             Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg  1seed %chg  seed prev
 46. Oregon                 B10   4-0  19-12  20-11  41.4  -0.6   2.1  -0.5   12p  11p
 47. TCU                    B12   3-1  18-12  20-10  41.4  -3.5   0.9  -2.1   12p  10 
 48. Memphis                Amer  3-0  19-10  22-7   39.2  +7.1   0.1   0.0           
 49. Northwestern           B10   3-1  18-12  18-12  37.4  -4.0   0.7  -1.3        12p
 50. Iowa                   B10   4-0  18-13  18-13  36.7  -2.0   1.0  -0.4           
 51. Louisiana Tech         CUSA  3-0  22-6   27-1   36.5  +5.6  <0.1   0.0   12   12 
 52. Maryland               B10   3-1  19-13  19-13  35.7  +0.6   0.4  -0.4           

There's plenty of Big Ten on the bubble with Northwestern, Iowa, and Maryland all in the First Four Out (Louisiana Tech is expected to win the CUSA). The Wildcats slipped out of their play-in spot after needing overtime to top Eastern Illinois at home, while the Hawkeyes' win over Washington State surprisingly didn't move them into the seedings (they were First Four Out last week, too). 

                                       Record             Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg  1seed %chg  seed prev
 63. Colorado St.           MWC   3-1  19-11  20-10  29.4 -12.0  <0.1  -1.2        11p
 67. Michigan               B10   2-1  15-15  10-20  26.8 +10.6   0.4  +0.3           
 84. Wake Forest            ACC   4-1  16-14  17-13  21.7 -10.7   0.1  -0.8           
100. Indiana St.            MVC   2-2  20-11  26-5   15.0 -12.2   0.0  -0.1           
123. James Madison          SB    2-2  19-9   24-4   11.3  -9.7   0.0   0.0        14 
140. Cornell                Ivy   3-1  18-9   21-6    9.0 -11.4   0.0   0.0

Other teams that made an impression last week, positive or negative, include: Colorado State, who dropped off the bubble after a 15-point loss to Mississippi; Michigan, winners over TCU; Wake Forest who fell 75-60 to Xavier; Indiana State, whose rating continues to get adjusted for this season's reality (losing to SI Edwardsville at home helped the process along); same goes for James Madison who lost to Towson 67-63; and Cornell who lost to La Salle 93-77.

2024-2025 Week 1: Auburn, Gonzaga win the first week

If you didn't get the memo, college basketball has started up and already crazy things are happening and big games are going down.

Case in point—Auburn has jumped to the overall #1 seed in the Dance Chance following a 74-69 road win over fellow 1-seed Houston. The Tigers move up from a 2-seed and the Cougars remain a 1-seed, so it's not earth-shattering by any means, but it does push Auburn's odds of finishing a 1-seed up 14.1%. Interestingly of last year's national title game contenders it was Edey-less Purdue that held their ground as a 1-seed while UConn slips to a 2-seed despite outperforming expectations in their games against low-ranked non-conference foes. Arizona held their 1-seed with a 102-44 win over Old Dominion but will be tested against Wisconsin this week.

                                       Record             Dance Chance 11/10/2024
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg  1seed %chg  seed prev
  1. Auburn                 SEC   2-0  24-5   26-3   86.1 +15.3  34.9 +14.1    1    2 
  2. Purdue                 B10   2-0  24-6   30-0   83.1  +2.2  33.8  +2.2    1    1 
  3. Houston                B12   1-1  25-6   29-2   83.0  +4.5  28.0  -2.3    1    1 
  4. Arizona                B12   2-0  23-6   29-0   82.4  +6.1  32.7  +5.0    1    1 
  5. Connecticut            BE    2-0  25-4   29-0   80.2  -4.1  23.1 -11.4    2    1 
  6. Tennessee              SEC   2-0  24-6   28-2   73.8  +2.6  17.1  -1.6    2    2 
  7. Duke                   ACC   2-0  24-7   29-2   73.2  +7.9  18.5  +3.9    2    3 
  8. Gonzaga                WCC   2-0  24-5   28-1   73.2 +13.5  13.1  +7.3    2    3 

Tennessee did well enough to hold their 2-seed while Duke moved up from a 3-seed. Moving up in spectacular fashion is Gonzaga who destroyed former 4-seed Baylor 101-63, a game they were supposed to win by just a point given pre-season ratings.

Alabama and Illinois held their 3-seeds after beating UNC Asheville 110-54 and Eastern Illinois 112-67 respectively. Alabama travels to Purdue on Friday—and then play Illinois next Wednesday. The Tide likely have the toughest non-conference schedule in the nation. North Carolina's 92-89 loss to Kansas dropped them to a 3-seed.

Rank Team                   Conf  Curr Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg  1seed %chg  seed prev
  9. Alabama                SEC   2-0  22-9   26-5   69.7  +9.6  20.9  +8.0    3    3 
 10. Illinois               B10   2-0  23-8   27-4   69.5  +8.1  15.8  +4.8    3    3 
 11. Iowa St.               B12   1-0  21-8   25-4   69.1   0.0  15.4  -4.6    3    2 
 12. North Carolina         ACC   1-1  22-8   28-2   63.1  -6.1   9.1  -8.0    3    2 
 13. Kentucky               SEC   2-0  22-9   20-11  60.6  +9.1   8.1  +1.7    4    5 
 14. Marquette              BE    2-0  22-9   26-5   60.1  +2.3   6.6  -3.4    4    4 
 15. Florida Atlantic       Amer  2-0  23-6   28-1   59.8 +16.3   4.0  +2.6    4    8 
 16. Michigan St.           B10   2-0  20-9   27-2   59.2  +5.0   9.0  +1.5    4    5 

Kentucky rode a couple of 100-point games to a 4-seed but they'll face Duke on Tuesday. The big news above is Florida Atlantic, who was a question mark coming into the season and rated an 8-seed but the Owls delivered against former 6-seed Indiana State, winning 97-64 and vaulting to a 4-seed. Note that Indiana State was an even bigger question mark, so the impact of that win will probably diminish.

Below are several other big movers who all had great first weeks. Utah State leapt off the bubble with 101-46 and 103-74 wins over Alcorn State and Charlotte. Joining the Aggies as a 6-seed is Cincinnati who had their own blowout wins including 109-54 over Arkansas Pine Bluff. Kansas' big win had more meat to it; they beat North Carolina 92-89 which improved the Jayhawks' admittedly low-ball outlook in our pre-season ratings.

Rank Team                   Conf  Curr Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg  1seed %chg  seed prev
 23. Utah St.               MWC   2-0  22-8   24-6   50.5 +15.0   3.0  +1.9    6   12p
 24. Cincinnati             B12   2-0  20-11  23-8   49.5  +9.5   4.3  +0.6    6   10 
 28. Kansas                 B12   2-0  19-12  17-14  48.5  +8.4   5.4  +0.8    7   10 
 30. Mississippi St.        SEC   2-0  20-10  24-6   47.5  +7.5   3.6  +0.4    8   11 
 32. UC Irvine              BW    3-0  25-7   32-0   47.5 +16.3   0.3  +0.2    8   12 

Mississippi State beat two Georgia schools (West- and -State) by a combined 70 points, while UC Irvine won three games. Two were over D-I opponents (Loyola Marymount and Northern Iowa) they were "supposed" to beat by 5 points and 1 point; instead they won by 15 and 20. 

The Bubble: meaningless right now but always interesting. Baylor fell here from a 4-seed as they were crushed so bad by Gonzaga their projected record (Chalk) fell from 22-8 to 17-13. Texas lost to Ohio State, 80-72 in Las Vegas, dumping the Longhorns from a 7 to an 11 and elevating the Buckeyes to the same seed. Colorado State fell 3 seeds due toneeding overtime to beat Tennessee State at home.

Rank Team                   Conf  Curr Proj   Chalk %Odds  %chg  1seed %chg  seed prev
 41. Baylor                 B12   1-1  18-12  17-13  42.6 -12.3   4.1  -5.7   11    4 
 42. Ohio St.               B10   1-0  18-13  21-10  42.5  +9.4   2.7  +0.2   11      
 43. Texas                  SEC   1-1  19-11  21-9   42.4  -2.3   1.6  -1.5   11    7 
 44. Oregon                 B10   2-0  19-12  20-11  42.0  +8.7   2.6  +1.1   11p     
 45. Colorado St.           MWC   2-0  20-10  24-6   41.4  -2.0   1.3  -1.1   11p   8 
 46. Northwestern           B10   1-1  18-12  19-11  41.4  +6.9   2.0  +0.7   12p     
 47. Penn St.               B10   2-0  19-11  20-10  38.8 +16.5   1.2  +0.9   12p     
 48. Iowa                   B10   2-0  19-12  17-14  38.7  +5.8   1.4  +0.3        
 49. Texas A&M              SEC   1-1  18-13  18-13  37.6  +4.7   1.5  -0.6        
 50. Nebraska               B10   2-0  17-12  16-13  37.0  -3.7   1.7  -1.1        10
 51. San Francisco          WCC   2-0  21-9   22-8   36.2  +5.3   0.4   0.0  

Joining Ohio State in the seed-line is Oregon, as well as fellow Big Ten (18?) teams Northwestern and Penn State. The Wildcats' outlook improved from a 5-point road loss to 8-seed Dayton, while the Nittany Lions had the biggest improvement in Dance Chance odds (up 16.5%) after beating Binghamton 108-66 and UMBC 103-54, games they were forecast to win by 19 and 17 points. Adding to the Big Ten bum rush is first-team-out Iowa and 3rd team out Nebraska, who fell from a 10-seed mostly due to only beating Bethune-Cookman by 5 points at home.

The teams below had mixed results but improved or declined by double figures. Wake Forest was on the negative side despite three wins; the Deacons underperformed in all three by an average of 15 points. Even worse was Indiana State but that was expected, if that makes any sense. Our pre-season rankings just go by last year's results, and the Sycamores are a completely different team. They fell to Florida Atlantic 97-64. James Madison underperformed for the same reason, even losing to Norfolk State 83-69 (but still the Sun Belt favorite for now). Louisiana Tech and UC San Diego were on the plus side, though. The Bulldogs won twice and we favor them in all but 2 games this year. The Tritons lost to 7-seed San Diego State by just 5 points on the road. 

Rank Team                   Conf  Curr Proj   Chalk %Odds  %chg  1seed %chg  seed prev
 57. Wake Forest            ACC   3-0  18-12  20-10  32.4 -10.9   0.9  -1.8         8
 60. Louisiana Tech         CUSA  2-0  21-7   26-2   30.9 +11.1  <0.1  +0.1   12   13
 66. Indiana St.            MVC   1-1  22-9   27-4   27.2 -20.5   0.1  -1.3         6
 76. UC San Diego           BW    1-1  20-10  26-4   23.5 +10.0  <0.1  +0.1        
 85. James Madison          SB    1-1  21-7   25-3   21.0 -12.8   0.0  -0.2   14   12
 86. Villanova              BE    2-1  17-13  16-14  20.8 -17.9  <0.1  -1.9        11p
 98. Xavier                 BE    2-0  16-14  15-15  17.2 -10.6  <0.1  -1.0        
101. Seton Hall             BE    1-1  15-14  15-14  17.0 -15.0   0.0  -0.9        
110. Butler                 BE    1-1  15-15  14-16  15.0 -11.0  <0.1  -0.2     

Four teams in the Big East hit the skids: Villanova lost to Columbia 90-80 at home and lost their 11-seed; Xavier struggled a bit with IU Indianapolis (formerly known as IUPUI, #361 in Strength); Seton Hall lost at home to Fordham, 57-56; and Butler lost at home to Austin Peay. Based on just these early results it's safe to say the Big East is down a notch or two this season.

Rank Team                   Conf  Curr Proj   Chalk %Odds  %chg  1seed %chg  seed prev
127. Richmond               A10   1-1  15-13  17-11  11.5 -11.4   0.0  -0.1        
128. Saint Joseph's         A10   1-1  16-13  19-10  11.4 -10.9   0.0  -0.1        
147. Appalachian St.        SB    1-2  19-11  25-5    9.0 -16.1   0.0  -0.1        
162. Vermont                AE    1-2  20-11  26-5    6.7 -10.9   0.0   0.0        14
175. Morehead St.           OVC   1-2  21-10  27-4    5.7 -10.3   0.0   0.0   16   14

A few more underperformers above. Richmond and St. Joe's didn't do the A-10 any favors last week. The Spiders lost to Marist, 79-72 at home, while the Hawks lost to Central Connecticut 73-67. Bad non-conference losses make it harder for a league like the Atlantic 10 to get at-large bids, so these results matter. 

Appalachian State lost twice, to Miami Ohio and Wisconsin, putting the Mountaineers more in line with this season's reality (they were 27-7 last year, a feat unlikely to be replicated). Vermont fell to top seed Auburn 94-43, and then to Merrimack 65-51. The Catamounts lost their America East leadership position, while Morehead State held on in the OVC despite their 2 losses to Louisville (93-45) and Cincinnati (83-56).

WOW Gonzaga

Gonzaga 101, Baylor 63

There were a lot of blowouts among Monday's season-openers, but most were ranked teams beating teams you don't hear much about for the rest of the year.

Like Alabama 110, UNC-Asheville 54.
Or Houston 97, Jackson State 40.
Marquette 102, Stony Brook 62
Cincinnati 109, Arkansas Pine-Bluff 54
Kentucky 103, Wright State 62

You get it. But Gonzaga beating Baylor by 38 is a statement. Baylor was #11 pre-season in Kenpom and #8 in the pre-season AP poll. And Gonzaga beat them like they were Siena, Stonehill, or Pacific. In fact they only beat Pacific 102-76 last year.

So Gonzaga is good, probably better than the 3-seed we started them as. Or maybe Baylor isn't a 4-seed this year? That's probably closer to the truth. The Zags beat expectations by 36 points, but more of that might be the Bears being overrated.

Let's assume that half the margin was outlier, so a 17-point win really represents how the teams stand. The most credit we give Gonzaga is about 7 points and they're close to being the best team in the country. Take away the same from Baylor and they're a bubble team.

11-seeds vs. 6-seeds updated

I've been harping on the fact that 11-seeds are great picks forever now, and I take them all the time. Well not all the time because this round I only took 2 of the 3 yesterday, but I should have taken all 4 because ALL THREE 11-SEEDS WON in the first round!

11-seed NC State? Beat 6-seed Texas Tech 80-67.

11-seed Oregon? Beat 6-seed South Carolina 87-73.

11-seed Duquesne beat 6-seed BYU 71-67.

There's one more 6- vs 11- left, Clemson vs. New Mexico. But even if Clemson wins that one, it's 3 of 4 for the 11-seed.

Update: Since 2011, 11-seeds are an amazing 28 of 52. That's 53.8%.

Before 2011 (that is, from 1985 to 2010) 11-seeds were a pedestrian 33 of 104, or just 31.7%.

What changed? I'm not sure but the tournament expanded to 68 teams from 64 in 2011, causing a shift in what an 11-seed is. It should have perhaps diluted the 11-seed spot, as more teams were just added to the bottom, and had to play-in. Play-in teams have had solid success, but 11-seeds overall do better than just 11-seed play-in teams, so it's not just a phenomenon of "getting winning momentum" off the bat.

Not many people are noticing how good the 11-seeds are because the full stats from 1985  (through 2024) still show a 39.1% win percentage for 11-seeds, which looks decent but not alarming. 53.8% looks alarming!

Now, in two of the last three years, three 11-seeds have won, making the "all-time" odds for a 6-seed just 60.9%. All three 7-seeds beat 10-seeds yesterday, so those odds (from 1985-2024) are now 61.7%. The odds of a 6-seed winning in the first round are LOWER than the odds of a 7-seed winning!

That's never happened before (outside of the tossup 8 vs. 9 spot). Imagine the odds of a 3-seed winning their opening game being better than the odds of a 2-seed.

This is going to wake people up. When they see the '85-'24 stats next year when doing their brackets, they'll see the weirdness of the bottom line number NOT increasing as you do down the seeds. Finally, they will note the power of the 11-seed.

But they might not know it's really a 50/50 game. It will still show the 6-seed as a 61% favorite. But you will know. You will know.

Quick pick: Ohio State vs. St. John's in the NIT finals

This year the NIT almost looks more exciting to me than the NCAA tournament, given all the cool teams that got left out of the Big Dance.

Cases in point: the two hottest teams in the country, both spurred by coaching decisions

• Ohio State, who came to life with new coach Jake Diebler, going on a 6-2 run that included a win over 1-seed Purdue
• St. John's, who came to life after Rick Pitino gave them a tongue lashing, winning six in a row before falling to 1-seed UConn

Seriously, the Red Storm needed to beat the overall top seed to get a bid? How stupid is that. The Committee needs to explicitly take recent play into account and add teams like these two, I was hoping at least one of them might make it but nope, can't have a fun tournament. And no, that doesn't mean I favor some ridiculous expansion scheme that will destroy the tournament.

Both teams are on an incredible tear (playing top 10 basketball lately), and both should still be motivated for the NIT despite not making the NCAA, since there was a time that both teams considered their NCAA odds to be zero (after St. John's lost 8 of 10 and their coach ranted at them, and after Ohio State lost 9 of 11 and their coach got fired).

Can't see them play in the Big Dance but you can follow them in the NIT.

UPDATE: St. John's refused the bid. We can't have any fun, can we? I guess I take the Buckeyes to win it.

Is UConn 2024 = Florida 2007? And what about Iowa State's win over Houston?

People have been making the comparison between UConn of 2024 and Florida 2007, saying the Huskies have the best chance to repeat since that Florida team. Well, that's true by definition, since no team has repeated since Florida of 2007 and UConn has a chance to. But is that the correct team to compare them to?

And what of Iowa State's 28-point blowout of #1 Houston? The comparison made there has been UCLA's 32-point blowout of #1 Houston in 1968. Is that what we should be referencing, a game from 56 years ago?

UConn 2024 = Florida 2007 or Villanova 2017?

Starting with the Huskies, who just rose to #1 on KenPom, let's look at not just 2007 Florida but all the teams since then who tried to repeat and whether some of them might be more applicable.

Year Team       Rec   Seed     Kenpom   NCAA finish
2007 Florida    29-5  1-seed*  #3	won NCAA
2011 Duke       30-4  1-seed   #2	Sweet 16
2014 Louisville 29-5  4-seed   #1	Sweet 16
2017 Villanova  31-3  1-seed*  #2	Round of 32
2022 Baylor     26-6  1-seed   #4	Round of 32
2023 Kansas     27-7  1-seed   #9	Round of 32
2024 UConn      31-3, 1-seed*  #1	???

Since Florida of 2007, 4 defending champs have nabbed a 1-seed, putting them in an elite group trying to repeat. We also include 2014 Louisville because they were #1 on Kenpom, even though they only got a crazy 4-seed.

The comparison to Florida is pretty well-deserved, as the Gators were the overall 1-seed (we're assuming that's the case with UConn). They were only #3 on KenPom. They had all five starters back, though, as we've pointed out in a prior article.

This is why we think the better comparison is with 2017 Villanova. Also the overall 1-seed, they even share UConn's 31-3 record and Big East tournament win. They returned 3 starters (UConn returns 2), and improved on the previous year's record. They looked set to repeat! But they lost in the Round of 32.

Recent years haven't been kind to 1-seed defending champs, and none since Florida has made it past the Sweet Sixteen. Will UConn break the streak?

Houston 2024 = Houston 1968 or St. Joe's 2004?

Now Houston. And Iowa State.

I don't think you have equate Houston 2024 to Houston 1968. Or Houston 1983, or any other Houston team except the recent Cougars.

And Iowa State certainly isn't UCLA with Lew Alcindor.

The game that comes to mind for me is Xavier beating St. Joe's 87-67, when St. Joe's was #1 and undefeated. It was the most lopsided win by an unranked team over a #1 team ever, and it was much worse than the final score. Xavier led by 37 points at one time. It was the kind of beatdown that causes a reckoning, the kind people are saying Houston needs after such an extreme loss. 

So what happened to St. Joe's in the NCAA tournament? And Xavier?

1-seed St. Joe's had a decent run, getting to the Elite Eight before losing by two to Oklahoma State.

Xavier also had a good run as a 7-seed, beating 10-seed Louisville, 2-seed Mississippi State, and 3-seed Texas before falling to 1-seed Duke in the Elite Eight.

So that's not such a bad outcome—for either team. Unless getting to the Final Four and/or winning it all is your do-or-die goal, in which case the Elite Eight is probably a disappointment. Houston would probably see the Elite Eight as moderately disappointing after this season, while Iowa State fans would be pretty happy—but might want more now.