SportsRatings: College Basketball

Joe Lunardi asks the crazy question: UConn or the field?

Joe Lunardi is a pretty good Bracketologist, I suppose, using the meaning of picking the Selection Committee's choices. But not necessarily the other meaning, i.e. making the actual picks in the tournament. I haven't checked his track record, but I assume it's no better than average.

That's why it's not to surprising to see him asking a ridiculous question: Would you take UConn? Or the rest of the field?

Insane question, let's face it. UConn is probably not even the best team in the country, let alone such an overwhelming favorite that you'd take them over all 67 other teams. That's a question that should have been asked maybe twice in the last 30 years: for 2015 Kentucky, and 1999 Duke. Go back a bit and yes, 1991 UNLV for sure. None of these teams won it all, but they should have been overwhelming favorites approaching the 50% level.

Really, to pick a team vs. the field I'd go back to 1976 Indiana and/or several UCLA teams. There were a few years where I'd say there was duo of teams that added up to 50%: 2005 with North Carolina and Illinois, and 2021 with Baylor and Gonzaga.

Lunardi invokes 2006-2007 Florida as his 2024 UConn equivalent: 

The 2006-07 Florida Gators, defending national champions, reached Christmas that season with only two losses. They then embarked on a 17-game winning streak, leaving little doubt about the identity of the top team in the land.

He admits that Florida was returning all five starters from the season before, which is a huge difference that he glosses over with "nobody does that any more!" But is UConn the best team? Maybe every AP voter thinks so, but by this point they're voting mostly by résumé not by true strength. UConn is only #5 in our Strength power rating, behind Arizona, Houston, Purdue, and Alabama. Maybe that's wrong, but KenPom has them #2 behind Houston and the BPI has the Huskies #4 behind Houston, Purdue, and Arizona. So the consensus seems to be that UConn has a solid chance at the Final Four but they won't even be the favorite to repeat.

Repeating is difficult. Florida did it with all five starters back, and Duke did it in 1991-1992 with four of their starting five back. UNLV had everyone back in 1991 but lost in the Final Four to Duke. Arizona in 1998 had five starters back but lost in the Elite Eight.

UConn is more similar to some teams that didn't repeat despite being 1-seeds. Like 2017 Villanova, who went 31-3 the year after their championship but fell in the Round of 32. Other 1-seeded defending champs (since 1985) that failed to repeat include 1991 UNLV, 1994 North Carolina, 1997 Kentucky, 2001 Michigan State, 2002 Duke, 2011 Duke, 2022 Baylor, and 2023 Kansas.

Here's how much they returned from the previous year's squads and where they finished (for all 1-seed repeat attempts):

• 1991 UNLV (5 starters back, lost Final Four)
• 1992 Duke (4 starters back, National Champs)
• 1994 North Carolina (4 starters back, lost Round of 32)
• 1997 Kentucky (2 starters back, lost in Finals)
• 1998 Arizona (5 starters back, lost Elite Eight)
• 2001 Michigan State (2 starters back, lost Final Four)
• 2002 Duke (3 starters back, lost Sweet Sixteen)
• 2007 Florida (5 starters back, National Champs)
• 2011 Duke (3 starters back, lost Sweet Sixteen)
• 2017 Villanova (3 starters back, lost Round of 32)
• 2022 Baylor (2 starters back, lost Round of 32)
• 2023 Kansas (1 starter back, lost Round of 32)
• 2024 UConn (2 starters back, ???)

1995 Arkansas might count here since they were a 2-seed and made it to the title game; in fact, they seem more similar to 2007 Florida than UConn does. But as you can see the results are mixed, even with teams much more dominant at the time than UConn is today. 

Let's expand the time back as far as seeds go, so 1979 to 1985 and we add just one team:

• 1985 Georgetown (5 starters back, lost in Finals)

So there's something to be said for a defending champ 1-seed having 4-5 starters back: those 6 teams had two champions, 1 runner-up, and a Final Four team. With 1-3 starters back, those 7 teams had a runner-up, a Final Four team, two that lost in the Sweet Sixteen and three that lost in the Round of 32. So it looks like actually returning the team that won the title last year is important. Overall, of 13 teams that tried to repeat and got a 1-seed, 6 made the Final Four, a 46% rate, and 2 have won, a 15% rate—a rate that almost exactly matches the odds of a 1-seed to win the title (24 teams in 38 x 4 attempts since 1985). 60 1-seeds have made the Final Four since 1985, a 39% rate. So being a returning champ 1-seed doesn't seem to impart any real advantage except maybe a slightly higher chance of making the Final Four. But check the number of returning starters first.

Last year's runner-up seems to do just as well if they get a 1-seed the following year:

• 1982 North Carolina (3 starters back - National Champs) 
• 1989 Oklahoma (2 starters back - lost Sweet Sixteen)
• 1992 Kansas (2 starters back - lost Round of 32)
• 1993 Michigan (5 starters back - lost in Finals)
• 1998 Kentucky (2 starter back - National Champs)
• 2000 Duke (2 starters back - lost in Sweet Sixteen)
• 2013 Kansas (3 starters back - lost in Sweet Sixteen)
• 2015 Kentucky (3 starters back, lost in Final Four)
• 2017 North Carolina (3 starters back - National Champs)
• 2022 Gonzaga (2 starters back - lost in Sweet Sixteen)

*1984 Houston was runner-up as a 2-seed following their 1983 runner-up year
*1990 Duke was National Champ as a 2-seed following their 1989 runner-up year
*2007 UCLA made the Final Four as a 2-seed following their 2006 runner-up year
*2009 Michigan State made the Final Four as a 5-seed following their 2008 runner-up year
*2010 Butler was runner-up as an 8-seed following their 2009 runner-up year

So two national titles in 10 attempts, again not far from the 15% rate than 1-seeds have to win it all, given the sample size. But the 50% Final Four rate is pretty impressive.

And what about the whole Final Four?

• 1979 Notre Dame (3 starters back - lost Elite Eight)
• 1980 DePaul (3 starters back - lost Round of 32)
• 1982 Virginia (3 starters back - lost Sweet Sixteen)
• 1983 Houston (3 starters back, lost in Finals)
• 1983 Louisville (2.5 starters back, lost in Final Four)
• 1986 St. John's (2 starters back, lost Round of 32)
• 1989 Arizona (2 starters back, lost Sweet Sixteen)
• 1990 Arkansas (4 starters back, lost Elite Eight)
• 1993 Indiana (4 starters back, lost Elite Eight)
• 1998 North Carolina (4 starters back, lost in Final Four)
• 2000 Michigan State (3.5 starters back, National Champs)
• 2002 Maryland (4 starters back, National Champs)
• 2003 Oklahoma (3.5 starters back, lost Elite Eight)
• 2005 Duke (3 starters back, lost Sweet Sixteen)
• 2008 UCLA (4 starters back, lost in Final Four)
• 2009 North Carolina (4.5 starters back, National Champs)
• 2012 Kentucky (3 starters back, National Champs)
• 2013 Louisville (3.5 starters back, National Champs)
• 2014 Wichita State (2.5 starters back, lost in Round of 32)
• 2015 Wisconsin (3.5 starters back, lost in Finals)

*1989 Duke reached the Final Four as a 2-seed following their 1988 Final Four appearance
*1990 Duke was runner-up as a 2-seed following their 1989 Final Four appearance
*2003 Kansas made the Finals as a 2-seed following their 2002 Final Four appearance

Here we have 20 samples, and 5 national champs, a 25% rate. Seems pretty good. And again a 50% Final Four rate, besting the 39% rate for a typical 1-seed.

It appears that if we expand to include 2-seeds we'll capture some more results (I listed the ones I noticed right off the bat), but I suspect it wouldn't be as predictive as the rate for 1-seeds. It probably would exceed the rate for the typical 2-seed, though, so you might emphasize last year's Final Four teams if they get 1- or 2-seeds the following year.

The bottom line, though, is that UConn is nothing special in being a (very likely) 1-seed following a championship year, and the model for their success in the tournament is not 2007 Florida or 1992 Duke, but rather 2017 Villanova, 2022 Kansas, and 2023 Baylor all of whom lost in the Round of 32. That said, UConn is also the weirdest name in NCAA tournament history, winning out of the blue several years, getting to the Final Four whether they're pretty good or really good. So I'm not sure anyone can predict what UConn will do in the tournament.

But you'd be a fool not to take "the field" if given the chance.

2024 Week 15: Committee's Top 16 blesses the top four seeds

The Committee has spoken, and their Preliminary Top 16 consecrated all four of our #1 seed projections—including the overall top seed—and our top four seeds include 15 of the 16 teams they named. There are some discrepancies to note, so here we go:

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                                ||  Record    ||    Dance Chance    || Seed 2/18  2/11
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr   Proj   %Odds   %Chg  1-seed   Snap Proj  Proj 
  1. Purdue                 B10   23-3   27-4   100.0    0.0   94.5     1     1     1  
  2. Houston                B12   22-3   27-4   100.0    0.0   92.4     1     1     1  
  3. Connecticut            BE    24-2   28-3   100.0    0.0   76.4     1     1     1  
  4. Arizona                P12   20-5   26-5   100.0    0.0   70.2     1     1     1  
  5. Iowa St.               B12   20-5   24-7   100.0    0.0   26.7     2     2     2  
  6. Tennessee              SEC   19-6   23-8   100.0   +0.1   10.9     2     2     3  
  7. North Carolina         ACC   20-6   24-7   100.0    0.0    5.9     2     2     2  
  8. Kansas                 B12   20-6   22-9   100.0   +0.1    0.8     2     2     3  

Purdue remained our projected overall top seed despite the crazy loss to Ohio State on Sunday. The Boilermakers were the Committee's top seed, too, but that was announced before they fell to the Buckeyes, who had lost 9 of their last 11 games prior. OSU was probably on some kind of "new coach high" is all we can figure about the 73-69 win. Purdue remained at the very top but their "#1 seed odds" fell from 97.2% last week to 94.5%. Meanwhile Houston's 1-seed odds rose by 1.0% after beating Texas Saturday. UConn and Arizona round out our top seeds, with the Huskies adding 12.4% to their 1-seed odds after beating DePaul by 36 and Marquette by 28. The Wildcats couldn't quite match that but they tried, beating Arizona State by 45 to raise their 1-seed odds from 66.3% to 70.2%. The four 1-seeds are taking shape, but UConn and Arizona probably need to win their conference championships to get there, where Purdue and Houston might not have to.

Iowa State comes up our next most likely 1-seed, but the Committee has them a 3-seed right now. Instead as a 2-seed they have Marquette (again, this was before Saturday's action where the Eagles were destroyed by UConn). If the Cyclones want to make it to a 1-seed they need to do something dramatic, like beat Houston on the road tonight (Monday 19th). That and winning the Big Twelve would put them in the mix for sure. Tennessee (10.9%) would need to win the SEC tournament but at least the Vols made it to 100% this week after two dominant wins (+64 points combined) over punching bags Arkansas and Vandy. Also getting to 100% is Kansas, who lost big (79-50) to Texas Tech on the road, but also picked up a key road win over Oklahoma. The Jayhawks are seen as having very little chance in the Big Twelve tournament so their 1-seed odds are minuscule. And North Carolina's 1-seed odds plunged from 11.9% to 5.9% after a loss to Syracuse last Tuesday. But we, like the Committee, still have them at a 2-seed.

                                ||  Record    ||    Dance Chance    || Seed 2/18  2/11
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr   Proj   %Odds   %Chg  1-seed   Snap Proj  Proj 
  9. Alabama                SEC   18-7   23-8   >99.9    0.0   13.7     3     3     2  
 10. Marquette              BE    19-6   23-8   >99.9    0.0    1.3     3     3     3  
 11. Auburn                 SEC   20-6   24-7   >99.9    0.0    1.7     3     3     2  
 12. Duke                   ACC   20-5   24-7    99.9   +2.0    0.4     4     3     4  
 13. Baylor                 B12   19-6   22-9    99.9   +0.9    3.6     3     4     4  
 14. Creighton              BE    19-7   22-9    99.3   +3.2    0.2     4     4     4  
 15. San Diego St.          MWC   20-6   24-7    99.3  +11.7    --      4     4     6  
 16. Illinois               B10   19-6   23-8    99.2   +4.1    0.3     4     4     5  

The Committee also pretty much agreed with the Dance Chance in terms of 3- and 4-seeds, in particular that Alabama is the top 3-seed. Their 13.7% odds of getting a 1-seed reflect their Strength ranking (#4 currently after their 100-75 dispatching of Texas A&M) and the concomitant chance of winning the SEC tournament. Contrast that with Auburn, who is just a 4-seed by the Committee's early ranking, and who has just 1.7% shot at a 1-seed following their upset home loss to Kentucky. Previous to that, they crushed South Carolina 101-61 so Bruce Pearl's squad is running hot and cold rather than consistent. Duke just makes it into our 3-line after a couple workmanlike wins over Wake Forest and FSU.

Baylor is our top 4-seed while the Committee puts the Bears at a 3; we also have them a 3-seed if selections occurred today. They show a much better 1-seed shot (3.6%) than Kansas though, again due to Strength (#11 to KU's #17). San Diego State and Illinois both join our 4-seed line; the Aztecs are up from a 6-seed after beating 5-seeds Colorado State and New Mexico last week while the Illini added two less-significant wins. Both are 4-seeds by the Committee while Creighton was "considered" for a 4-seed but didn't get it. The Jays play UConn Tuesday night and a win would probably make the Committee reconsider.

Note Duke (0.3%) and SDSU's (0%) chance of a 1-seed. It looks like no Mountain West team is going to be considered no matter their finish, and if a team from the ACC gets a 1-seed it will be UNC. The same goes for the Big East (UConn or bust) and Big Ten (Purdue) and Pac-12 obviously with Arizona. Only the Big Twelve has several candidates and a (small) shot at two 1-seeds. The SEC has three strong teams and the tournament winner has a decent chance but there's no chance for two 1-seeds.

                                ||  Record    ||    Dance Chance    || Seed 2/18  2/11
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr   Proj   %Odds   %Chg  1-seed   Snap Proj  Proj 
 17. BYU                    B12   18-7   22-9    97.9   -1.2    0.8     7     5     3  
 18. Clemson                ACC   17-8   21-10   97.7   +2.4    --      5     5     4  
 19. New Mexico             MWC   20-6   24-7    95.7   +2.5    --      5     5     5  
 20. Colorado St.           MWC   20-6   24-7    95.5   +5.7    --      5     5     5  
 21. Kentucky               SEC   18-7   22-9    95.1  +19.7    --      6     6     8  
 22. TCU                    B12   18-7   21-10   92.2   +8.1    --      6     6     7  
 23. Dayton                 A10   21-4   25-5    92.1   +4.2    --      5     6     6  
 24. Wisconsin              B10   17-9   20-11   91.7   +4.4    --      6     6     6  
 25. Texas Tech             B12   18-7   22-9    89.4  +14.8    --      7     7     9  
 26. Michigan St.           B10   17-9   20-11   89.0   +9.6    --      9     7     7  
 27. Saint Mary's           WCC   21-6   24-7    87.4  +12.5    --      7     7     8  
 28. Utah St.               MWC   21-5   26-6    86.0   -3.5    --      6     7     5  
 29. Florida                SEC   18-7   22-9    83.2  +10.3    --      7     8     9  
 30. Nevada                 MWC   20-6   24-8    79.2   +3.6    --      8     8     8  

The other team in the Committee's Sweet (pre-Selection Sunday) Sixteen was Wisconsin, whom we have as a 6-seed. The Badgers lost at Iowa in overtime on Saturday, their 5th loss in their last 6 games so it makes me wonder what the Committee's been smoking (maybe some overripe cheese?). Two other teams "considered" for the top 16 were Clemson, who appropriately slips to a 5-seed here after a home loss to NC State, and Dayton, who we have as a "snapshot" 5-seed but project as a 6-seed ultimately. 

BYU took a fall this week due primarily to a loss to Oklahoma State but also to a narrow 90-88 win over Central Florida that hurt their forward-looking Strength rating. The Cougars grade out as a 7-seed right now, and are projected to work their way up only to a 5-seed instead of a 3-seed (as projected last week) partly because of that decrease in Strength—and also because time is running out, they only have 6 regular-season games left! Their Strength is still solid enough (#9) that they show a nearly 1% chance of making it all the way to a 1-seed, something that would require them to win the Big Twelve tournament certainly. They have 4-seed Baylor and 2-seeds Kansas and Iowa State still on their schedule, the latter two on the road. 

In Mountain West action, New Mexico and Colorado State both survived a loss to new conference "champ" San Diego State and held at 5-seeds due to big wins over Nevada and Utah State, respectively, with the Lobos, Rams, Aztecs, and Wolf Pack all at 20-6! The 21-5 Aggies fell to a 7-seed from a 5-seed after the 75-55 loss to Colorado State.

Kentucky and Texas Tech were the big winners here. The Wildcats are up from an 8-seed to a 6-seed after beating 3-seed Auburn on the road (as well as drubbing Mississippi at home). The Red Raiders gained almost 15% in odds and two seeds despite falling at Iowa State on Saturday (as expected); prior to that, they beat Kansas 79-50 and were set to show up as a 6-seed. Not quite!

St. Mary's also added double digit Dance Chance odds, mostly a bump in Strength from beating Pepperdine 103-59. This makes their odds of winning out better—even though the odds still say they drop one of their last four outings. And the Florida Gators, a bubble team for most of the year, is looking like a solid tournament team now at 83.2% after winning 7 of their last 8 games.

                                ||  Record    ||    Dance Chance    || Seed 2/18  2/11
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr   Proj   %Odds   %Chg  1-seed   Snap Proj  Proj 
 31. Washington St.         P12   20-6   23-8    74.1   +9.9    --      8     8    10  
 32. Nebraska               B10   18-8   21-10   73.9   +8.8    --      9     8    10  
 33. Boise St.              MWC   17-8   21-10   72.6   +9.8    --     10     9    11  
 34. Gonzaga                WCC   20-6   23-7    70.3   +8.8    --     11     9    11p 
 35. Oklahoma               B12   18-8   20-11   69.6  -13.5    --     10     9     7  
 36. Wake Forest            ACC   16-9   20-11   69.5   -6.2    --     11     9     7  
 37. Virginia               ACC   20-6   22-9    68.7   -2.0    --      8    10     9  
 38. Mississippi St.        SEC   17-8   20-11   68.4   +1.0    --     10    10    10  
 39. Florida Atlantic       Amer  20-6   24-7    67.3   -6.9    --      9    10     9  
 40. Texas                  B12   16-9   19-12   65.6   -4.6    --     12p   10    10  

Washington State is another hot team right now; the Cougars have won 7 straight and 10 of 11; they face 1-seed Arizona on Thursday trying to sweep the series (they won 73-70 in the home contest). Also under-the-radar and moving from a 10-seed to an 8-seed is Nebraska, who beat Penn State at home (which is not impressive) by 19 points (which is impressive). The Cornhuskers' last five games are all winnable.

Lots of movement onto the 9-seed line, from below and above. Boise State and Gonzaga improved their lot, the Broncos beating Fresno State 90-66 and the Zags winning 91-74 and 102-76 (thought the latter home win, over #349-Strength Pacific, was a slight underperformance!). But Oklahoma and Wake Forest dropped down two seeds each, the former due to losses to 4-seed Baylor and 2-seed Kansas (at home), the latter due to losses to 3-seed Duke and 10-seed Virginia.

The Cavaliers also fell despite that win, as they were upset by Pittsburgh a few days earlier. And Florida Atlantic dropped a seed with another loss in the American Athletic, this time to South Florida. The Owls viability as an at-large team is starting to look shaky; right now they're probably safe without winning their conference tournament, but they can't lose too many more and still say that. 

                                ||  Record    ||    Dance Chance    || Seed 2/18  2/11
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr   Proj   %Odds   %Chg  1-seed   Snap Proj  Proj 
 41. South Carolina         SEC   21-5   23-8    64.7  -11.0    --      8    11     8  
 42. Northwestern           B10   18-8   21-10   61.6   +0.1    --     10    11    11  
 43. Pittsburgh             ACC   17-8   20-11   60.1  +23.9    --     12p   11p       
 44. Cincinnati             B12   16-9   19-12   57.4   -2.0    --     12p   11p   11p 
 45. Drake                  MVC   22-5   25-6    55.0   +5.1    --      9    11        
 46. Indiana St.            MVC   22-5   26-5    53.9  -33.7    --     11    12p    6  
 47. Utah                   P12   16-10  19-12   50.9   -6.9    --           12p   12p 
 48. Seton Hall             BE    17-9   19-12   47.0  +24.1    --                     
 49. Grand Canyon           WAC   24-2   29-3    46.5   +1.3    --     11    12    12  
 50. Colorado               P12   17-9   21-10   45.7   -5.9    --                     
 51. Texas A&M              SEC   15-10  18-13   45.4  -17.0    --                 11  
 52. SMU                    Amer  19-7   23-8    40.6   +6.6    --                     
 53. Butler                 BE    16-10  19-12   39.7  -18.7    --                 12p 
 54. Mississippi            SEC   19-6   21-10   38.3   -5.5    --     12p             

Bubble teams: First, let's look at the 800-lb elephant in the room (someone isn't feeding that elephant, btw) Indiana State, who lost twice last week and fell from a projected 6-seed all the way to an 12-seed play-in team, losing 33.7% of their at-large odds. It wasn't the road loss to 17-10 Southern Illinois that did the damage, but the home loss to 13-14 Illinois State. That loss dropped them to an 11-seed mid-week, down 26.5% already before the 2nd loss added to their woes. I think the Sycamores were distracted by their entry into the AP top 25. Whatever the cause, a team in a conference like the Missouri Valley going from 3 losses to 5 losses is a big deal. They're now 1 spot behind Drake and both aren't getting in. The Bulldogs enter our seeding for the first time in quite a while, and in current snapshot they're at a 9-seed.

Also entering the seedings is Pittsburgh, fresh off a win at Virginia and an 86-59 beatdown of Louisville. Dropping out are Texas A&M, who lost to Vanderbilt by a point and Alabama by 25 points, and are just 15-10. Their odds drop from 62% to 45%. Butler also has 10 losses now and their odds fell from 59% to around 40% following losses to Marquette and Creighton, both at home, the latter by 22 points. Those aren't games the Bulldogs were expected to win, but playing at home they had a decent chance in both, and their odds of making the tournament depends on winning some games like that; those opportunities are gone now.

South Carolina hid a big bump in the road, taking on loss #4 and #5 last week. The loss to Auburn wasn't unexpected but they fell by 40 points; maybe that caused a hangover to the 1-point home loss to LSU and that's what really hurt them. They're still in a lot better shape than Mississippi, the other SEC team with a schizm between Success and Strength. The Rebels broke a 3-game skid with a narrow home win over Missouri but they're still projected to come up a bit short (despite showing as Last Four In team in the current "snapshot").

Other teams on the wrong side of the waterline include Seton Hall, who makes a huge upward move this week from 23% to 47% odds after topping Xavier and St. John's. 17-9 might not sound so great but it's a lot better than 15-9. When a team's record is too close to .500 it's much harder to make a case as an at-large, especially when you add in the expected loss in the conference tournament. Grand Canyon would be in if the tournament selected today, but even one more loss puts them on the outside needing a WAC title to get in. For a minor conference, the difference between having 2 and 3 losses can be immense.

Colorado is also in the First Four Out at the moment, with Utah being the Last Team In. The Pac-12 has just one certainty (Arizona) and one team looking very good now (Washington State). The Buffaloes and the Utes play on Saturday in a very important Bubble game. 

                                ||  Record    ||    Dance Chance    || Seed 2/18  2/11
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr   Proj   %Odds   %Chg  1-seed   Snap Proj  Proj 
 59. McNeese St.            Slnd  23-3   28-3    31.4  +11.3    --     12    13    13  
 62. Ohio St.               B10   15-11  17-14   19.0  +11.2    --                     
 64. N.C. State             ACC   16-9   18-13   17.2  +10.0    --                     
 65. St. John's             BE    14-12  18-13   13.9  -24.7    --                     
 72. Miami FL               ACC   15-11  17-14    8.3  -15.2    --                     
 73. Memphis                Amer  18-8   21-10    8.2  -14.1    --                     
 74. Xavier                 BE    13-12  16-15    7.2   -9.6    --                     
103. UCLA                   P12   14-12  16-15   <0.1    0.0    --                     
108. North Texas            Amer  14-11  18-12    0.0   -0.6    --                     
126. Penn St.               B10   12-14  14-17    0.0   -0.1    --                     

Here are some more teams making moves of note. McNeese State has been hanging around the bottom of the bubble ever since upsetting Michigan in Ann Arbor last December, but never making it to true at-large range. They've only lost once since then and if they can win out they might be in position for an at-large, but the conundrum for minor conferences is in play here: a loss in their tournament might put them back out, while winning the tournament makes them an auto-bid.

Ohio State scored the big win of the week, beating Purdue. The Buckeyes' odds had fallen to 3.9% mid-week after their loss to Wisconsin, but they're back in play—sort of—after beating the Boilermakers. They're still just 15-11 so unless their "new coach effect" carries through the Big Ten tournament they're still a long shot. But their last five games are pretty winnable—if, in fact, they've found new life rather than just a temporary jump-start. Penn State, on the other hand, dropped to 0.0% after falling to 12-14. The drop was pretty far, as #126 is well out of the 0.1% range. The Lions fell to Michigan State at home and Nebraska (by 19) on the road, so it's a number of factors—mostly that they project to 14-17 now and squandered the opportunity those two games afforded them.

North Texas fell to 0.0% as well, all the way from a reasonable 0.6%, also a big plunge. The Mean Green actually beat Memphis on Thursday, so the entire plunge to 0.0 was caused by the 71-62 loss to UAB. They were favored in that game, and when you're 14-10 you need to win those I guess. Speaking of the American, Memphis took another hit in odds, falling 14.1% to just 8.2% as the Tigers lost not only to the Mean Green but also to SMU, 106-79. Once a projected 7-seed at 10-2, the Tigers were cursed by Ken Pomeroy who declared them overrated, after which they went on a 4-game skid. 

Big East busts: Xavier skidded almost 10% but it was St. John's who fell the most, dropping almost 25% to just 13.9% odds after losses to Providence and Seton Hall put them at 14-12. The Musketeers are even worse at 13-12 and 7.2%. You can't win em all but you have to win some of the tough ones, and neither team has lately: The Red Storm have lost 8 of 10 and Xavier 4 out of 7—though they did beat St. John's a few weeks ago.

The ACC actually has a team in the plus column: NC State, who beat 5-seed Clemson on the road, 78-77 after trailing almost all the 2nd half. They're offset by Miami, another team cursed by Pomeroy, who lost to Clemson and Boston College, their 4th loss in a row. They face Duke and North Carolina in their last 5 games, which is daunting but the opportunity of those games is responsible for most of their remaining 8.3% at-large hope. 

And I was hoping to talk about UCLA this week and their 7-game win streak in Pac-12 play but they lost to Utah by a point, so instead of having a measurable at-large percentage, they're still in the <0.1% limbo. It's miraculous that they've held on this long after starting 6-10. They're clearly a better team now: they lost to Utah by 46 points a month ago.

101-61 loss at Auburn perpetuates South Carolina's Strength/Success schizm

Remember 2022 Providence? The Friars finished #38 in Strength and #10 in Success. At 27-6 overall they lost almost exclusively to good teams—including eventual national champ Kansas in the tournament. They also tended to lose big—by 18, 32, and 27 in three of their losses. But they were remarkably consistent in getting wins against the rest of their slate, which included only 4 other teams ranked higher than themselves in KenPom.

This year's Providence is South Carolina. The Gamecocks were #59 in Strength this morning and #4 in Success. If anything, they've out-Providenced Providence. Before today they'd lost just 3 games and won 20. Those three losses were by 5 to Clemson on the road (not bad), by 27 to Alabama (not good, but to a good team), and by 5 at home vs. Georgia (pretty bad). And they had wins mostly against poor competition—particularly non-conference, where KenPom has their SOS at #338.

But they did score wins vs. Mississippi State, Kentucky, and even Tennessee on the road, which made them look like they were for real.

Tonight though, they lost to Auburn by 40 points. It's the perfect result to continue the schizm between their Strength and their Success. In Success, margin of victory doesn't matter, so forget the 40 points. Also, losing on the road to a really good team? Not a game-changer. They'll slide a bit but nothing disastrous. The same goes for ESPN's SOR (Strength of Record).

But their Strength (and their BPI ranking) will take a dive. They were expected to lose by about 13 points per Strength, so that result will hit them pretty bad. They'll fall to about #65 in Strength, and probably only to #5 in Success, widening their discrepancy even more.

Mississippi is another Providence clone this year, only they're worse in both Strength and Success. Overall, the Rebels don't make the top 25. And reality is catching up to them; after a 13-0 start, they're 18-6, including three losses in a row.

Will it catch up to South Carolina? They're nearing their toughest stretch of the season, and we've projected them to finish 24-7 and get an 8-seed in the tournament. Losing three more games would likely bring their Success closer to their Strength, but not if the losses are huge like tonight's.

 

2024's Best Conference Race? Easily the Mountain West

Which conference race is the most interesting, most compelling, most up in the air, and most important?

It's not the Big Twelve. They might be the best conference (ok they are), but Houston pretty much has that one wrapped up—not from a conference standings standpoint, where things are pretty tight, but from a "who is the best team in the conference?" standpoint. And from "who is going to be the top seed from this conference?" standpoint.

Because while there are many tight conference races by wins and losses, the teams overall tend to fall into groups, with one rising above the rest over all games of the season.

Take the Big Ten. Purdue is only a few games ahead of Illinois, and there's a tight race in the rest of the pack. But Purdue looks like a 1-seed, and no other teams looks much better than a 5-seed right now.

So cross off the Big Ten. Big East? UConn has just 1 conference loss, and Marquette 3. Everyone else has 5 losses. Next!

ACC? North Carolina, Duke, and Virginia are the competitors right now. Really? Who cares. North Carolina is gunning for a 1-seed, the rest look like also-rans. The Cavs look like a 9-seed to us, Duke a common 4-seed. No big race there.

Pac-12? You've gotta be kidding. Arizona is a likely 1-seed and that might be the conference's only bid. (We project three teams from the Pac-12, and right now we show three teams in: 1-seed Arizona, 10-seed Washington State, and 12-seed play-in Utah as the Last Team In. The Pac-12 also has the First Team Out, Colorado, so there could easily be 4 teams in...or just 2).

Anyway it's not the Pac-12. 

How about the SEC? That's the first good answer yet. Seven teams have 2, 3, or 4 conference losses. More importantly, they have three teams—Alabama, Auburn, and Tennessee—neck and neck gunning for a 2-seed. Add in 20-3 South Carolina and you have a great conference race. But it's not the best.

No, the best is the Mountain West. Six teams are in the running for the Big Dance. And no one knows who the best team in the conference is, nor who will win the regular season or who should be favored in the conference tournament.

Right now we project New Mexico, Utah State, and Colorado State as 5-seeds; San Diego State as a 6-seed; Nevada an 8-seed; and Boise State (last week a 7-seed) as an 11-seed. 

Dance Chance for games through Sunday, February 11

                                 [   Record   ||    Dance Chance    || Seed 2/11  2/04]
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr   Proj   %Odds   %Chg  1-seed   Now  Proj  Proj 
 18. New Mexico             MWC   19-5   24-7    93.2   -2.5   <0.1     7     5     4  
 19. Colorado St.           MWC   19-5   24-7    89.8   +6.3    --      6     5     6  
 20. Utah St.               MWC   20-4   27-6    89.5   -0.5    --      5     5     5  
 23. San Diego St.          MWC   18-6   23-8    87.6   +0.8   <0.1     5     6     5  
 30. Nevada                 MWC   19-5   24-8    75.6  +19.1    --      7     8    11  
 41. Boise St.              MWC   16-8   21-10   62.8  -13.6    --     12p   11     7  

Though we show six teams projected to get in, when you add up the odds it comes out to an expectation for five teams to make it from the MWC.

The conference race is super-close, too:

Team          Rec    Conf
Utah St.      20-4   8-3 
San Diego St. 18-6   7-4 
New Mexico    19-5   7-4 
Colorado St.  19-5   7-4 
Boise St.     16-8   7-4 
Nevada        19-5   6-4
UNLV          13-9   6-4     

Utah State has 3 losses, and six other teams have 4 losses. It's almost a fool's errand to try to pick the regular-season winner.

So who is going to win the conference tournament? Let's look at their Strength ratings:

#   Team                     Record   Rating
18. New Mexico                19-5     18.55
27. Colorado St.              19-5     16.49
29. San Diego St.             18-6     16.40
35. Utah St.                  20-4     16.10
47. Nevada                    19-5     14.27
49. Boise St.                 16-8     14.18

New Mexico has the edge, and after that a cluster of three teams (Colorado State, SDSU, and Utah State) are too close to call as 2nd best. Nevada and Boise lag behind.

But the venue is Las Vegas, which might give Nevada a boost, and maybe even UNLV. Regardless, most probably favor San Diego State after last year's NCAA tournament run, and they rank best in Pomeroy of the six contenders by a whisker over New Mexico. 

So I'd say New Mexico and SDSU are co-favorites, with Colorado State and Utah State both viable. Nevada and especially Boise would be longer shots, with UNLV a very long shot as home favorite.

Regardless, this is the most interesting conference race of the year. The Mountain West is a legit Major conference in 2024 and should have more teams (5) than the Pac-12 (3) and probably the same as the ACC (5). The Big Ten and Big East might only have five teams each. Only the Big Twelve (8-9 teams) and SEC (7-ish) look certain to have more teams than the Mountain West, who could even end up #3 with six teams in. 

That's why every game from here on out is important, and if you want to scout the Big Dance properly you have to pay attention to the Mountain West—as much as almost any other conference.

Big win hangover? Kansas, North Carolina lose. Is Tennessee next?

Last week I noted that several of the teams in the huge weekend of AP-top-ten clashes had lost the game leading up to their big contests. Now it looks like instead of "Looking Ahead" the cliché for this week is going to be all about the "Hangover Loss." So far of the four big winners, two have lost their follow-up game:

• After beating Houston 78-65 on Saturday, Kansas fell in overtime at Kansas State Monday night
  
  
• And last night North Carolina, just days after topping rival Duke 93-84, lost to Clemson—at home!

If that's not a Hangover Loss I don't know what is. But what is a Hangover Loss anyway? Basically it's when a team loses after a "big game"—whether they won the big game or lost it, sports commentators tend to blame the big game itself. If the team lost the big game, then that loss "carries through" to their next loss—like a hangover. If they won the big game, then they "came down from their high" and stumbled. Sometimes that's called a "Letdown" instead. But a hangover can come from either having too much fun or a really rough night, so it applies to both the winner and the loser of the previous "big game."

It works the other way too: a team like Houston, who lost to Kansas last week, had a "Rebound Win" over Oklahoma State on Tuesday. As did Kentucky; following their loss to Tennessee, the Wildcats destroyed Vanderbilt 109-77.

So which games might really have been affected by the psychology in play? The Kansas loss might have been due to a let-down in emotion, but it was on the road at rival K-State, and in overtime. The Jayhawks aren't exactly a great road team, and that's more likely the bottom line. When a team plays pretty close to their capabilities, there's less "evidence" of a Hangover Loss or Rebound Win.

But North Carolina's loss is pretty suspect since they lost at home. They were "off" right from the start, too, falling behind 15-2 early. In fact the Tar Heels were guilty of BOTH a Hangover Loss AND Looking Ahead, since they lost to lowly Georgia Tech before the Duke win.

So who's next? Purdue doesn't play until Saturday which might help them dodge the Hangover syndrome. And the Boilermakers have won so much this year it's questionable how "big" the Wisconsin game really was to them—we count it just because it was a clash of AP top ten teams at the time.

Tennessee follows up their big win at Kentucky by hosting LSU tonight. If the Vols stumble at home vs. the Tigers, we can safely assert that it's a Hangover Loss.

The only teams left are Duke and Wisconsin, who might suffer Hangover Losses after getting beat by UNC and Purdue. But it's much more likely they have Rebound Wins—after all they face Notre Dame and Michigan respectively and should be safe victories. However, because their opponents are struggling so much—both are 7-15 right now—claiming a Rebound Win is going to be tough, unless the victory margin is 30 points.

But if either one loses—especially Duke, who is returning to play at home—I will be there to assert that it was a dreaded Hangover Loss.

Week 13 - 2024: Top-Ten clashes leave 1- and 2-seeds unchanged

For all the big games last weekend (and last week) there were no changes on the 1-line or even on the 2-seed line.

Mostly because many of the big winners this weekend lost the (less prestigious) game earlier in the week! Here's a rundown of our latest Dance Chance on February 5, 2024:

                                 [       Record      ||    Dance Chance    ||   Seed   ]             
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr   Proj   Chalk  %Odds   %Chg  1-seed  02/04 01/28
  1. Purdue                 B10   21-2   28-3   29-2   100.0    0.0   96.7     1     1  
  2. Houston                B12   19-3   27-4   28-3   100.0    0.0   90.0     1     1  
  3. Connecticut            BE    20-2   27-4   28-3   100.0   +0.1   59.1     1     1  
  4. Arizona                P12   17-5   25-6   26-5   100.0    0.0   42.6     1     1  
  5. North Carolina         ACC   18-4   25-6   26-5   >99.9    0.0   23.2     2     2  
  6. Alabama                SEC   16-6   23-8   24-7    99.9   +0.5   18.9     2     2  
  7. Tennessee              SEC   16-5   24-7   25-6    99.9   +0.1   16.4     2     2  
  8. Iowa St.               B12   16-5   23-8   25-6    99.7    0.0   11.5     2     2  

Both Purdue and Houston needed overtime to win home games early last week (over Northwestern and Texas, respectively) but while the Boilermakers topped Wisconsin on Sunday, the Cougars fell to Kansas in Allen Fieldhouse, 78-65, in the weekend's biggest matchup. That allowed Purdue to take over the top overall seed but Houston is still in great shape for a 1-seed—90%, according to our newly-added numbers (why didn't I put this in here before?). Purdue is nearly a shoo-in now for a top seed at 96.7%.

UConn joined the 100% club this week, beating Providence and St. John's to go 20-2. The Huskies have solid 1-seed odds: 59.1%, or more likely than not in our book. Arizona isn't a certain thing as a 1-seed (42.6%) but they hold their top seed despite a scare at home from Stanford on Sunday.

The 2-seeds all stayed 2-seeds, too. North Carolina got a big win over Duke but their earlier loss to Georgia Tech kept them a sliver away from 100% odds. As the top 2-seed they have a strong shot at a 1-seed obviously, as does Alabama. The Tide started 6-5 but they were a 2-seed in our book even then; after beating Georgia and Mississippi State (99-67) they've won 10 of 11 and everyone else is waking up to how good they are as they take over our top spot in the SEC. Tennessee got a huge road win over Kentucky, 103-92, but they lost to South Carolina before that. And Iowa State has the biggest "what if" of the week; if the refs had put an extra 0.1 seconds before the last play, they would have had a game-winning 3 over Baylor but instead they lost, 70-68. 

                                 [       Record      ||    Dance Chance    ||   Seed   ]             
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr   Proj   Chalk  %Odds   %Chg  1-seed  02/04 01/28
  9. Marquette              BE    17-5   23-8   24-7    99.3   +4.7    7.9     3     4  
 10. Auburn                 SEC   18-4   25-6   26-5    99.3   +1.8    9.6     3     3  
 11. Kansas                 B12   18-4   23-8   23-8    99.3   +7.8    5.2     3     5  
 12. BYU                    B12   16-5   24-7   25-6    99.2   +0.5   10.5     3     3  
 13. Baylor                 B12   16-5   22-9   23-8    98.1   +6.1    5.5     4     4  
 14. Duke                   ACC   16-5   24-7   26-5    95.8   +5.4    0.2     4     5  
 15. New Mexico             MWC   18-4   25-6   25-6    95.7   -1.7    0.6     4     3  
 16. Wisconsin              B10   16-6   22-9   24-7    95.3   +0.8    0.4     4     4  

The 3-seed line sees the first changes from last week, principle among then Kansas, who is up from a 5-seed after the big win over Houston. They join a group of three Big Twelve teams, where BYU interestingly shows a much bigger 1-seed odds than KU or Baylor. The Cougars' Strength ranking is much better (#5) than the Bears (#11) or Jayhawks (#17) and getting a 1-seed requires an outlier future performance, even though Kansas has by far the best résumé of the three so far.

Marquette is up to a 3-seed after winning their 5th and 6th in a row last week; meanwhile New Mexico drops to a 4-seed after losing at home to Boise State last Wednesday. The Lobos are still the top-ranked Mountain West team, which is a really big deal this season. 

Duke interestingly rises a seed after falling to North Carolina in Chapel Hill. That loss isn't a bad one, and Baylor and Michigan State—the Blue Devils best skins—did great last week. And they won at Virginia Tech earlier in the week, and a road win generally gains a team more than a road loss hurts them—especially an expected loss to a 2-seed. And perhaps more interestingly, Wisconsin lost twice but holds their 4-seed. They fell in overtime at Nebraska and vs. 1-seed Purdue. They even gained almost 1% in Dance Chance odds. I guess "good losses" are really a thing? But seriously, think how much they'd have jumped for winning both games...

                                 [       Record      ||    Dance Chance    ||   Seed   ]             
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr   Proj   Chalk  %Odds   %Chg  1-seed  02/04 01/28
 17. Creighton              BE    16-6   22-9   24-7    95.3   -1.2    0.6     5     3  
 18. Illinois               B10   17-5   23-8   23-8    94.6   +4.1    0.9     5     5  
 19. Utah St.               MWC   19-3   27-6   29-4    90.0   -1.6   <0.1     5     4  
 20. San Diego St.          MWC   17-5   23-8   24-7    86.8   +5.9   <0.1     5     7  
 21. Dayton                 A10   18-3   25-5   27-3    86.3   +1.8   <0.1     6     6  
 22. TCU                    B12   16-6   21-10  21-10   84.8   -3.5   <0.1     6     5  
 23. Colorado St.           MWC   17-5   23-8   24-7    83.5   +2.5   <0.1     6     7  
 24. Florida Atlantic       Amer  18-4   25-6   27-4    80.0   +5.9    0.0     6     7  
 25. Indiana St.            MVC   20-3   27-4   28-3    79.9   +3.9    0.0     7     7  
 26. Michigan St.           B10   14-8   20-11  22-9    79.8   +7.2   <0.1     7     8  
 27. Clemson                ACC   14-7   21-10  22-9    79.3   -5.4    0.0     7     6  
 28. Boise St.              MWC   16-6   22-9   21-10   76.4  +22.5    0.0     7    11p 

Creighton also falls from the 3-line and lands at a 5-seed after last Friday's 99-98 home loss to Butler. Along with Illinois the Blue Jays are the last team deemed to have a realistic shot at a 1-seed; beyond them, a handful of teams have a less than 1 in 1000 prayer that if everything goes right, they'll be within striking distance come conference tournament time. Note that those teams include three Mountain West teams: Utah State, down from a 4-seed after losing at San Diego State, who rises from a 7 to a 5; and Colorado State, up from a 7- to a 6-seed after beating the Aztecs the prior Tuesday. Whew! Left out of the 1-seed prayer table is Boise State, but the Broncos are the biggest mover this week, up from the play-in line to the bottom 7 seed after beating 4-seed (and MWC favorite) New Mexico and following that with a 94-56 win over Air Force.

TCU fell to Texas at home and fell a seed. Clemson also fell a rung after their 6th loss in 9 games, to Virginia at home by a point this time. But they're still near 80% in Dance Chance, so the Tigers aren't in trouble yet; the Bracket Matrix concurs, with the consensus bracket putting them at a 7 as well. The Dance Chance is a projection, while the Bracket Matrix is mostly made of "snapshot" style brackets, the "if Selection Sunday were today" type. 

Rising a notch each are Michigan State and Florida Atlantic. Both teams won twice at home with the Spartans beating Michigan and Maryland while the Owls topped North Texas and Tulsa, the latter 102-70.

                                 [       Record      ||    Dance Chance    ||   Seed   ]             
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr   Proj   Chalk  %Odds   %Chg  1-seed  02/04 01/28
 29. Kentucky               SEC   15-6   21-10  21-10   76.0  -10.8    0.0     8     6  
 30. Texas Tech             B12   16-5   21-10  22-9    75.8   -7.6   <0.1     8     6  
 31. Utah                   P12   15-7   21-10  22-9    75.6   +3.3    0.0     8     8  
 32. South Carolina         SEC   19-3   23-8   23-8    74.0  +19.5    0.0     8    11  
 33. Oklahoma               B12   16-6   20-11  20-11   72.7   +1.2   <0.1     9     8  
 34. Saint Mary's           WCC   18-6   24-7   25-6    70.7   +2.7    0.0     9     9  
 35. Texas                  B12   15-7   19-12  19-12   68.7  +18.3   <0.1     9    12p 
 36. Nebraska               B10   16-7   21-10  22-9    68.5   +9.3    0.0     9    10  
 37. Cincinnati             B12   15-7   20-11  19-12   68.0   +0.8    0.0    10     9  
 38. Wake Forest            ACC   14-7   20-11  21-10   64.1   +8.5    0.0    10    11  
 39. Colorado               P12   15-7   21-10  23-8    61.9   -8.4    0.0    10     8  

Kentucky had a bad home outing vs. Tennessee and fell a couple seeds, but the real damage was done the game before in the overtime loss to Florida—also at home. Two home losses at this stage of the season will hurt a team, and the Wildcats fall over 10% in odds and have basically no chance of a 1-seed. The lowest-ranked teams to show a glimmer of hope are all from the powerful Big Twelve: Texas Tech, who lost to TCU and Cincinnati and dropped from a 6 to an 8; Oklahoma, who lost to Central Florida and slipped to a 9-seed; and Texas, who made a huge jump from the bubble to a 9-seed after taking 1-seed Houston into overtime, then beating TCU. The Big Twelve is so full of opportunity for big wins that almost no team can be counted completely out—though Cincinnati falls just outside the event horizon, apparently. The Bearcats lost to lowly West Virginia prior to beating Texas Tech and dropped to a 10-seed.

The biggest mover other than Boise is South Carolina, who is finally getting some props from the Dance Chance after starting 19-3! For the entire season the Gamecocks had a great record and low Strength, and a poor outlook that kept them out of the seedings. That changed a few weeks ago with their win over Kentucky, and last week's win over 2-seed Tennessee really jump-started their odds; they're up 19.5% and up from an 11-seed to an 8-seed after winning five straight. Their Strength is still only #56 (vs. #5 Success..!) so they're expected to go about 4-5 from here. 

Colorado lost to Utah which dropped the Buffaloes two seeds while the Utes held their 8-seed. Nebraska won in overtime (vs. 4-seed Wisconsin) and lost in overtime (at 3-seed Illinois) and the result was a gain of a seed. Sounds reasonable. Wake Forest lost to Pitt on the road, but beat Syracuse so badly (99-70) in made their outlook rosier and the Deacons rose to a 10-seed. But maybe the most interesting result was from St. Mary's, who beat Gonzaga 64-62 on the road—and didn't budge from a 9-seed. That shows how far the Zags have fallen from their usual standard.

                                 [       Record      ||    Dance Chance    ||   Seed   ]             
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr   Proj   Chalk  %Odds   %Chg  1-seed  02/04 01/28
 40. Butler                 BE    15-7   20-11  19-12   61.2  +16.1    0.0    10        
 41. Washington St.         P12   16-6   22-9   23-8    61.0   +2.5    0.0    11    10  
 42. Florida                SEC   15-7   20-11  20-11   57.0   +6.7    0.0    11    12p 
 43. Nevada                 MWC   17-5   23-9   23-9    56.5   +1.7    0.0    11    11  
 44. Northwestern           B10   15-7   20-11  22-9    55.6   -0.5    0.0    11p   10  
 45. Mississippi St.        SEC   14-8   19-12  21-10   55.5  -14.5    0.0    11p    9  
 46. Gonzaga                WCC   16-6   22-8   22-8    50.9   -5.3    0.0    12p   10  
 47. Virginia               ACC   17-5   21-10  20-11   50.8  +14.0    0.0    12p       
 48. St. John's             BE    13-9   19-12  18-13   50.3  -14.6    0.0           9  
 49. Mississippi            SEC   18-4   22-9   22-9    46.1   +0.4    0.0              
 50. Seton Hall             BE    14-8   18-13  19-12   42.8   +6.3    0.0              
 51. Grand Canyon           WAC   21-2   29-3   30-2    42.1   +2.8    0.0    12    12  
 52. Drake                  MVC   18-5   24-7   25-6    41.7   -9.9    0.0          11p 

The bubble is officially relevant now that it's February. And our first new team in this month is Butler who upset 5-seed Creighton on the road by a point. Joining them—just barely—is Virginia, who has won 7 straight including an upset of Clemson, also on the road, and also by a point. The Cavs slip in as the Last Team In, while St. John's falls from a 9-seed to the First Team Out after rough losses to Xavier and UConn left them 1-5 over their last six outings. Their remaining schedule is favorable but with 9 losses there's little room for error. Also dropping out is Drake, who lost to Missouri Valley favorites Indiana State, 75-67. 

Mississippi State's bad loss to Alabama—coupled with their earlier loss at Mississippi—dumped the Bulldogs from a 9 to an 11-seed play-in team. But the Gonzaga Bulldogs fared just as bad, losing at home to WCC rival St. Mary's and falling from a 10-seed to a 12-seed play-in. Their meeting with Kentucky next Saturday is a chance for both teams to recover, but unfortunately for the Zags it's in Rupp Arena. 

Speaking of Mississippi, the Rebels have been South Carolina's twin all year, ranking low in Strength and high in Success, and therefore forecast to underperform. Unlike the Gamecocks, however, Ole Miss hasn't made it over the hump in the seedings. Just when it looked like they'd made it—after the Mississippi State win—they suffered a big setback at Auburn, losing 91-77 after leading by 12 in the first half. Winning 4 and losing 5 in remaining play will keep them in striking distance during the SEC tournament, and really, the ball's in their court with potential big wins in almost every game.

                                 [       Record      ||    Dance Chance    ||   Seed   ]             
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr   Proj   Chalk  %Odds   %Chg  1-seed  02/04 01/28
 54. Princeton              Ivy   16-3   23-4   24-3    39.6  -13.2    0.0    12    12  
 56. Providence             BE    14-8   18-13  18-13   36.1  -11.7    0.0              
 58. Virginia Tech          ACC   13-9   18-13  19-12   34.6  -12.2    0.0              
 62. SMU                    Amer  15-7   22-9   23-8    29.1  -13.3    0.0              
 63. Iowa                   B10   13-9   18-13  16-15   28.3  -13.6    0.0              
 69. Richmond               A10   16-6   22-9   24-7    17.7  -10.2    0.0              
 72. Memphis                Amer  16-6   21-10  21-10   16.0  -23.4    0.0              
 75. McNeese St.            Slnd  19-3   27-4   28-3    15.7  -21.0    0.0    13    12  
 76. Syracuse               ACC   14-8   19-12  19-12   15.6  -17.2    0.0              
 78. San Francisco          WCC   18-6   22-9   23-8    13.5  -11.6    0.0              
 84. Kansas St.             B12   14-8   16-15  15-16    6.8  -16.1    0.0              
 85. Florida St.            ACC   12-9   16-15  16-15    6.7  -12.9    0.0              
 99. North Texas            Amer  12-9   18-12  19-11    0.9  -12.9    0.0              

Off the bubble: The rest of the teams that made big percentage moves were all moves on the downside, starting with Princeton. The Tigers lost their 2nd game in a row on Friday at Yale, and there's not much left on their schedule to bolster their résumé. They're still favored to win the Ivy League, and it looks like they'll need to.

Providence lost twice, to UConn and Villanova, neither of which is bad (both were road games) but with 8 losses and a tough remaining schedule, the Win-Loss record becomes a factor. The same thing goes for Virginia Tech, who is 13-9 now in the ACC following losses to Duke and Miami. Fellow ACC member Syracuse is a bit better at 14-8 but they're even lower in Strength and not expected to beat anyone outside of the conference's punching bags (though they are favored—barely—over the Hokies at home).

SMU only has 7 losses but can't afford many more in the American Athletic. The Mustangs won two games last week and still dropped 13.3%, probably because their previous opponents have faltered, making their résumé weaker. Florida State, whom they beat, lost to lowly Louisville, and Memphis, whom they lost to, is in a downward spiral with 4 losses in 5 games including a recent home loss to Rice. North Texas, also in the American—and also a team that beat SMU—lost almost all of last week's 14% odds after losses to UAB and South Florida left them with 9 losses, pretty much above the limit for an at-large from that conference. 

Iowa has had an up and down year, in the seedings for a while before falling out, and this week wasn't great as they fell to Indiana and beat struggling Ohio State at home by 2 points. Still at 28% despite 9 losses and a rough outlook, those odds come purely from the opportunity, not the expectation. Meanwhile the Big Twelve's Kansas State has squandered much of its opportunity, losing to Oklahoma as well as lowly Oklahoma State last week. The opportunity is still there as they play Kansas and BYU twice as well as Texas, TCU, and Iowa State, but realistically that probably turns their 8 losses into 15. The next five games will either put them at zero or give them a big boost. 

Mid-majors: Richmond wants to become the A10's 2nd pick (after Dayton) but those hopes are dwindling after a loss to VCU, their first in 11 games. The Spiders' 5-5 start to the season really put them at a huge disadvantage as far as at-large odds go, meaning they'll have to win the A10 tournament. McNeese State was tantalizingly close to at-large territory a few weeks ago but their big win (Michigan) lost all its luster, and the Cowboys lost their 3rd game (to SE Louisiana) last week, pretty much dooming their slim odds of a bid. Unlike Richmond they'll be heavy favorites to win their Southland conference tournament.

And San Francisco once was right on the bubble too, but since the Dons lost to both St. Mary's and Gonzaga a few weeks ago they've been treading water. What knocked them down 11.6% from last week? Just reality closing in on teams like this—as well as a very weak, 6 point home win over Pacific (#348 Strength). Sometimes winning isn't everything.

Saturday's top-ten (AP) clashes: were Houston, Purdue, UNC, UK & Tennessee looking ahead?

It's a pretty huge weekend with three pairs of top ten teams battling on February 2nd, 2024 and one more on Sunday. That's by the AP, of course: as far as we're concerned it's four pairs of, let's say, teams in the top 21 in our Overall power rating. But no complaints: these are great matchups and/or great rivalry games and there are some interesting happenings this week, where almost all of the teams involved seemed to be looking ahead to their big game.

(AP #7) Duke at (3) North Carolina (6:30pm EST)

Duke is only #21 in our Overall power rating, the lowest-ranked team of the 8-some, but they're a solid top ten and they beat Virginia Tech earlier this week while North Carolina was upset by lowly Georgia Tech, 74-73.

Who was looking ahead? This looks like the definition of "looking ahead" a concept that's always invoked when a team is upset prior to a much bigger game. "Trap game" is also used, especially when the home dog gets an upset win. Is it a real thing? It really does seem that the team that gets upset when "looking ahead" ends up winning big, but I have no actual data to back that up. That said, look for the Tar Heels, playing at home, to smoke the Blue Devils. After all, looking ahead means you are really focused on that game and psyched up for it.

(5) Tennessee at (10) Kentucky (8:30pm EST)

Another rivalry, not quite as big since Tennessee's basketball status isn't near that of the Wildcats, but this year the Vols are the better team. Kentucky only ranks #20 in our Strength (predictive) power rating with Tennessee at #10.

Who was looking ahead? It's hard to know what to make of the psychology of this game since BOTH teams lost in the run-up: Tennessee fell at South Carolina 63-59 and Kentucky lost to Florida at home in overtime. Kentucky has the home court Saturday but their loss—at home—looks much worse than Tennessee's road loss. Even if you're psyched up for a game and looking ahead, you should win if you're playing at home. That makes me think Tennessee is the winner here.

(4) Houston at (8) Kansas (4:00pm EST)

This isn't a rivalry of any sort but it might become one, depending on how long the new Big Twelve stays together. Houston is our #1 team in Strength and #2 Overall, while Kansas is just #19 in Strength but their #6 Success rating brings their Overall up to #8, so this is the only real top ten clash according to our power ratings.

Who is looking ahead? Houston needed overtime to beat Texas, so the Cougars might have had the bigger game on their mind. That said, winning at Texas is not such an easy task—in this case a win's a win. Kansas warmed up with an 83-54 win over Oklahoma State; a home game vs. a weak opponent is usually not considered a "trap game" susceptible to "looking ahead" anyway. So maybe Houston was, a little, and Kansas just showed how hyped they are for Houston's first visit as a Big Twelve member. This one's hard to call, Houston did well to get the road win, and Kansas is tough at home. I'm going again with the favorite, since they struggled and persevered and while Kansas rolled, it seems that teams that have a big "warm-up" win fall flat when the real game approaches. Again, I have no data here, it's a pretty big unexplored area in sports analytics and sports psychology.

(2) Purdue at (6) Wisconsin (Sunday, 1:00pm EST)

The Sunday big game features Purdue (our #1 team) vs. Wisconsin (our #15 team). The AP has Wisconsin really high because...well, it seems they think they have to keep them ahead of AP #9 Marquette. They're behind #5 Tennessee, who beat them, but ahead of #11 Arizona, who also beat them. In any case these two teams are leading the Big Ten right now, with the Badgers a game ahead actually. 

Who is looking ahead? The Boilermakers needed overtime (and lots of free throws) to beat Northwestern at home. Purdue has had big games all year and Wisconsin isn't their big rival or anything, so I doubt they were looking ahead. It's just that Northwestern kind of has their number; they know how to negate Zack Edey and disrupt the offense to some extent. They beat them earlier this year and once last year, too. Wisconsin hasn't played this week yet (they face Nebraska Thursday evening). At the risk of being boring and taking all four favorites, I see Purdue winning.

UPDATE: Wisconsin lost their game at Nebraska, in overtime. Looks like everyone is looking ahead!

 

2024 post-Week 12: UConn destroys Xavier, nabs 1-seed from UNC

Week 12, not much in big upsets but still some movement near the top, and the bubble is starting to take form.

                                   [       Record      | Dance Chance |  Seed     ]             
Rank Team                     Conf  Curr   Proj   Chalk  %Odds   %Chg   01/28 01/21
  1. Houston                  B12   18-2   27-4   29-2   100.0   +0.1     1     1  
  2. Purdue                   B10   19-2   28-3   29-2   100.0    0.0     1     1  
  3. Arizona                  P12   15-5   25-6   26-5   100.0   +0.1     1     1  
  4. Connecticut              BE    18-2   27-4   28-3   >99.9   +0.8     1     2  
  5. North Carolina           ACC   17-3   26-5   28-3   >99.9   +0.4     2     1  
  6. Tennessee                SEC   15-4   24-7   26-5    99.8   +0.7     2     2  
  7. Iowa St.                 B12   16-4   23-8   25-6    99.7   +1.1     2     2  
  8. Alabama                  SEC   14-6   23-8   24-7    99.4   +2.8     2     3  
  9. BYU                      B12   15-5   24-7   25-6    98.7   +0.1     3     2  
 10. Auburn                   SEC   16-4   24-7   26-5    97.5   +0.6     3     3  

Houston nabs the top 1-seed from Purdue by a whisker, looks like it will come down to the wire between these two right now. Both won twice last week but Houston's road win over former 2-seed BYU was the difference as they join the 100% club. Speaking of which, Arizona managed to get there despite losing a bad one to lowly Oregon State. The Wildcats' recovery win at Oregon was good enough to put them over the top.

And even though North Carolina won twice last week, beating Wake Forest and Florida State, Connecticut pushed them off the 1-line due to their monster 99-56 win over Xavier. That blowout (they led 38-7 at one point) only moved the Huskies up one spot in Strength but it clearly made their outlook rosier, and from a starting point of 18-2 that's pretty good. 

Alabama's win over 3-seed Auburn boosted the Tide back to a 2-seed as BYU dropped a bit to a 3 and Auburn held their seed despite two losses last week. Not big movements, and nothing that couldn't be easily undone in the future—or the conference tournaments—but things are starting to take shape at the top of the bracket; these 10 teams are probably the only ones that have a realistic shot at a 1-seed. 2-seeds Tennessee and Iowa State both made progress, the latter by beating 5-seed Kansas as expected.

                                   [       Record      | Dance Chance |  Seed     ]             
Rank Team                     Conf  Curr   Proj   Chalk  %Odds   %Chg   01/28 01/21
 11. New Mexico               MWC   18-3   26-5   27-4    97.4   +8.9     3     5  
 12. Creighton                BE    16-5   23-8   26-5    96.5   +2.8     3     3  
 13. Marquette                BE    15-5   22-9   23-8    94.6   +2.8     4     4  
 14. Wisconsin                B10   16-4   23-8   25-6    94.5   +5.0     4     4  
 15. Baylor                   B12   14-5   21-10  22-9    92.0   -1.1     4     3  
 16. Utah St.                 MWC   18-2   28-5   29-4    91.6   +7.3     4     6  
 17. Kansas                   B12   16-4   21-10  21-10   91.5   +5.3     5     5  
 18. Illinois                 B10   15-5   22-9   23-8    90.5   -1.9     5     4  
 19. Duke                     ACC   15-4   23-8   25-6    90.4   +1.3     5     4  
 20. TCU                      B12   15-5   22-9   23-8    88.3  +12.9     5     7  

New Mexico is the star here, rising from a 5-seed and our leader in the very strong Mountain West. The Lobos beat San Jose State by 20 then crushed Nevada 89-55 Sunday night, giving our algorithm even more confidence in them. Utah State also jumps two seeds, from a 6 to a 4, after beating Boise State on the road in overtime to go 18-2. The Aggies last loss? New Mexico two weeks ago. 

Baylor lost their third straight game (to TCU in triple overtime) and fell to a 4-seed; two of their last three losses were in overtime, and the other was by 2 points. With a tiny change in luck Baylor might be fighting for a 1-seed right now. TCU was on the other side of the luck equation and jumped two seeds. Kansas held their 5-seed despite their third loss in six games, even gaining 5% in tournament odds; once again, it looks like the wins over UConn and Tennessee continue to grow in prominence and keep them afloat.

Illinois lost to Northwestern in overtime and fell a seed, while Duke fell a seed...just because? Probably their last home win (Clemson by 1) was a bit tepid, but they still gained +1.3% in odds, so they're moving up in real terms.

                                   [       Record      | Dance Chance |  Seed     ]             
Rank Team                     Conf  Curr   Proj   Chalk  %Odds   %Chg   01/28 01/21
 21. Kentucky                 SEC   15-4   22-9   22-9    86.8   -1.7     6     5  
 22. Clemson                  ACC   13-6   22-9   23-8    84.7   +8.0     6     7  
 23. Dayton                   A10   16-3   25-5   27-3    84.5   -1.4     6     6  
 24. Texas Tech               B12   16-3   23-8   24-7    83.4   +9.2     6     8  
 25. Colorado St.             MWC   15-5   23-8   24-7    81.0   -6.1     7     5  
 26. San Diego St.            MWC   16-4   23-8   24-7    80.9   +4.1     7     7  
 27. Indiana St.              MVC   18-3   27-4   28-3    76.0   +5.0     7     8  
 28. Florida Atlantic         Amer  17-4   25-6   27-4    74.1    0.0     7     8  
 29. Michigan St.             B10   12-8   20-11  22-9    72.6   -2.4     8     7  
 30. Utah                     P12   14-7   21-10  22-9    72.3  -10.8     8     6  
 31. Oklahoma                 B12   15-5   20-11  21-10   71.5  -12.8     8     6  
 32. Colorado                 P12   15-6   22-9   23-8    70.3  +10.4     8     9  
 33. Mississippi St.          SEC   14-6   20-11  22-9    70.0  +11.6     9    10  
 34. Saint Mary's             WCC   16-6   23-8   24-7    68.0   +2.2     9     9  
 35. Cincinnati               B12   14-6   20-11  19-12   67.2   +1.5     9     9  
 36. St. John's               BE    13-7   20-11  18-13   64.9   +6.7     9    10  

In the Big Twelve, Texas Tech jumps from an 8 to a 6 while Oklahoma moves the other direction, due to the Aggies' 85-84 win in Norman. Oklahoma also lost big at home to Texas earlier in the week, and two home losses is never a good thing. 

Colorado State drops from a 5 to a 7 following losses to Nevada and Wyoming, both on the road and the latter in overtime. They end up one spot ahead of their next opponent, San Diego State. Utah falls from a 6-seed to an 8-seed after losing to both Washington teams on the road; they take on 8-seed Colorado next. The Buffaloes split games with the Washington teams last week, beating the Huskies before falling to the Cougars, but they made a big upward move (+10.4%) despite this. Apparently getting one solid (98-81) road win of two was a good trade-off? But it's true, in power conference play, going 1-1 on the road is usually a good showing. Mississippi State also made a double-digit percentage gain despite going 1-1 last week, but this one is easier to explain as they lost to Florida on the road, then upset 3-seed Auburn 64-58 at home. 

Interestingly Dayton held their ground as a 6-seed despite their loss to Richmond. It was close (69-64), on the road, and to a good team, the type of loss that every team is going to have now and then according to the odds. Their Dance Chance took a small hit and they soldier on, like Kentucky who dropped a seed after losing at South Carolina, though that one wasn't too close (79-62).

                                   [       Record      | Dance Chance |  Seed     ]             
Rank Team                     Conf  Curr   Proj   Chalk  %Odds   %Chg   01/28 01/21
 37. Nebraska                 B10   15-6   20-11  20-11   59.2   +4.0    10    11  
 38. Washington St.           P12   15-6   21-10  22-9    58.5  +17.8    10        
 39. Gonzaga                  WCC   15-5   22-8   23-7    56.2   -2.4    10    10  
 40. Northwestern             B10   15-5   20-11  21-10   56.1  +21.3    10        
 41. Wake Forest              ACC   13-6   20-11  21-10   55.6   -3.1    11    10  
 42. Nevada                   MWC   16-5   23-9   22-10   54.8    0.0    11    11  
 43. South Carolina           SEC   17-3   22-9   21-10   54.5  +17.7    11        
 44. Boise St.                MWC   14-6   20-11  20-11   53.9   -5.7    11p    9  
 45. Princeton                Ivy   15-2   23-4   25-2    52.8  -13.3    12     8  
 46. Drake                    MVC   17-4   24-7   25-6    51.6   -1.3    11p   12p 
 47. Texas                    B12   14-6   19-12  18-13   50.4  +18.5    12p       
 48. Florida                  SEC   14-6   20-11  19-12   50.3   +7.4    12p       

Top of the bubble: FIVE new teams bum rush the seedings this week, and here are their stories:

• Washington State went 2-0 this week, beating two seeded teams, Utah and Colorado, both currently 8-seeds. They also beat 1-seed Arizona a few weeks ago.
• Northwestern also joins as a 10-seed after beating 5-seed Illinois (in overtime) and Ohio State (83-58). The Wildcats have wins over 1-seed Purdue and 16-3 Dayton to go with their loss to 11-15 Chicago State 
• South Carolina finally gets some props for going 17-3 after their win over 6-seed Kentucky. Their remaining schedule is killer in the SEC but for the first time it looks like they'll make it, or at least be within reach of a bid at the start of the conference tournament.
• Texas had a great start to the week with a 75-60 thrashing of Oklahoma on the road, which was good enough to boost their chances 18.4% despite Saturday's road loss at BYU. They beat an 8-seed on the road and lost to a 3-seed on the road, that's not bad for a team just fighting to get in the Dance. They're playing 1-seed Houston tonight in another game that could really boost them but won't hurt much if they lose.
• Florida slipped into the seedings after a good week where they beat 9-seed Mississippi State and edged Georgia in overtime, both at home. The Gators are the last team in so they're no time for complacency, and they have a similar remaining SEC schedule to South Carolina. 

Two big falls: Boise State got dumped from a 9-seed down to the play-in line. They lost to 4-seed Utah State in overtime, which doesn't sound that bad, but it was at home and they also squeaked past 9-11 Fresno State by 4 points. Also in the Mountain West, Nevada had perhaps the most up and down week, beating 7-seed Colorado State 77-64 but then losing at New Mexico by a dismal 89-55. The upshot? As Colorado State fell 2 seeds and New Mexico went up 2 seeds, Nevada didn't budge at all: 11 seed, 54.8%, same as last week.

Princeton really took a hit for their 2nd loss, dropping from an 8-seed to a 12-seed, only staying off the play-in line because they're a heavy favorite to win the Ivy League tournament. It's not that we expected Princeton to win out (game by game, yes) but they shouldn't have lost 83-68 to anyone on their schedule, not even Cornell who is arguably the #2 team in the conference. Princeton's Strength fell from #46 to #61 and made getting an at-large bid look very precarious if they lose in their tournament.

                                   [       Record      | Dance Chance |  Seed     ]             
Rank Team                     Conf  Curr   Proj   Chalk  %Odds   %Chg   01/28 01/21
 49. Providence               BE    14-6   19-12  18-13   47.8   +7.3              
 50. Virginia Tech            ACC   13-7   19-12  19-12   46.8   +7.9              
 51. Mississippi              SEC   17-3   21-10  21-10   45.7  +17.6              
 52. Villanova                BE    11-9   17-14  17-14   45.1  -12.4          11  
 53. Butler                   BE    14-7   19-12  18-13   45.1  +15.9              
 54. Miami FL                 ACC   14-6   19-12  19-12   44.9   +7.3              
 55. SMU                      Amer  13-7   22-9   23-8    42.4  -13.1          11  
 56. Iowa                     B10   12-8   18-13  19-12   41.9   -5.1              
 57. Memphis                  Amer  15-5   22-9   22-9    39.4  -10.3          12p 
 58. Grand Canyon             WAC   19-2   28-4   30-2    39.3   +6.7    12    13  
 59. Texas A&M                SEC   12-8   18-13  19-12   38.6  -14.7          12p 
 60. Oregon                   P12   14-6   20-11  22-9    38.5   +6.0              
 61. Virginia                 ACC   15-5   20-11  19-12   36.8    0.0              
 62. McNeese St.              Slnd  18-2   28-3   29-2    36.7   +5.5    12    13  
 63. Seton Hall               BE    13-8   18-13  18-13   36.5  -15.2          12p 

Bottom of the bubble: first let's cover the five teams that dropped out and why:

• After two more losses Villanova is now 11-9, and that's a bad start even if you're expected to do well going forward. The latest losses were to St. John's by 20 and Butler in overtime. Note Butler's big percentage advance and presence on the bubble, along with Providence who won twice last week, including a win over....
• ...Seton Hall, who also fell to Marquette to put their record at 13-8, which is pretty borderline. There's not going to be room for many of these Big East teams in the tournament at this rate.
• SMU lost twice and is now 13-7, and in the American Athletic that probably doesn't cut it if they lose too many more.
• Memphis, also in the American, was looking great at 15-2 but then Ken Pomeroy wrote a substack about how the Tigers aren't really any good, and they've promptly lost three games in a row since, the latest to UAB
• Texas A&M is the opposite of Memphis, they rate really well in power ratings but don't win a lot (they lost to Memphis, btw) and now their power ratings are suffering as they lose more often. They fell to Mississippi at home on Saturday

Speaking of Mississippi, the Rebels are finally within striking distance of the seedings at 17-3. South Carolina just made it, why not Ole Miss? Up a whopping 17.6% after beating the Aggies on the road, but still only #74 in Strength (#64 in Pomeroy), they have a tough road ahead but 17 wins in their pocket. 

This section also has Grand Canyon and McNeese State, 19-2 and 18-2 respectively and both up to projected 12-seeds if they win their tournament. If they play as expected, but they mess up in their conference tournaments? They're out of luck according to the Dance Chance. But with each win—or rather, each non-loss—their odds get a bit better. A 5-loss WAC or Southland team doesn't get a bid, but maybe a 3- or 4-loss team does?

                                   [       Record      | Dance Chance |  Seed     ]             
Rank Team                     Conf  Curr   Proj   Chalk  %Odds   %Chg   01/28 01/21
 64. James Madison            SB    18-3   26-4   27-3    34.1   -2.9    13    12  
 69. Maryland                 B10   13-8   18-13  18-13   25.8  +15.6              
 70. Samford                  SC    18-3   26-5   28-3    25.7   -7.9    13    12  
 73. Ohio St.                 B10   13-7   18-13  18-13   24.2  -25.3              
 80. Xavier                   BE    10-10  16-15  16-15   17.7  -19.1              
 84. N.C. State               ACC   13-7   17-14  16-15   10.5  -11.2              
 95. UNLV                     MWC   10-9   17-14  17-14    4.7  -16.6              

James Madison and Samford are the teams that were 12-seeds last week, but both teams suffered their 3rd loss of the season. The Dukes fell to Appalachian State (the 2nd loss to the Mountaineers this season) while the Bulldogs lost to Furman. There is little leeway for Sun Belt and Southern Conference teams due to their schedule. Wins don't help much and losses hurt a lot. Neither team intends to need an at-large bid, but it would be nicer to be ranked as a 10-seed certainly, than a 13.

Other big movers this week include Maryland and Ohio State in the Big Ten, going opposite directions. The Terps beat Iowa on the road then crushed 10-seed Nebraska 73-51 back at home. The Buckeyes dropped over 25% (!) this week with losses to Nebraska and Northwestern, by 14 and 25 points respectively. The losses dropped them from the First Team Out to...just plain "out" at least for now. As a Big Ten team they have plenty of opportunity to reverse their fortune, but having lost 5 of their last 6 that's getting more and more doubtful.

Xavier also took a big tumble, down nearly 20% after losses to Creighton and UConn. Losing to a 3-seed and a 1-seed on the road doesn't seem that bad, and it's not, but when it puts you at 10-10 you have to start doing the math and it doesn't look good. Last week those games were probable losses but possible huge upsets that would propel the Musketeers into the seeding, now they're booked as 100% certain losses and Xavier is expected to barely finish above .500.

UNLV has the same problem a 10-9 in the Mountain West, but they only lost once. Problem is, that was to Air Force, at home, by 32 points. Ouch. That debacle knocked the Rebels from just over 20% odds—down but not out—to around 4% odds (pretty much out).

NC State is looking relatively good comparatively at 13-7, but they were looking better at 13-5 before losses to Virginia and Syracuse cut their tournament odds in half, from over 20% to just 10.5% now.

 

2024 post-week 11: Tennessee, UConn rise to 2-seeds

Two months until Selection Sunday 2004, and all our #1 seeds stayed the same from last week.

                                   [       Record      | Dance Chance |  Seed     ]             
Rank Team                     Conf  Curr   Proj   Chalk  %Odds   %Chg   01/21 01/14
  1. Purdue                   B10   17-2   27-4   29-2   100.0   +0.1     1     1  
  2. Arizona                  P12   14-4   26-5   27-4   >99.9    0.0     1     1  
  3. Houston                  B12   16-2   27-4   29-2   >99.9    0.0     1     1  
  4. North Carolina           ACC   15-3   25-6   27-4    99.5   +1.2     1     1  

Purdue won twice, including a solid 84-70 win at Iowa that convinced our algorithm that Purdue is a 100% lock for the tournament. For the Monte Carlo simulation it just means that in 1,000 runs there wasn't a result that put them anywhere near being left out (at this point that's about the top 14 spots). Arizona probably would have made it too but they struggled with UCLA, needing to overcome a 19-point deficit at home to scratch out a win. Houston is very close too but the powerful Big Twelve makes certainty impractical. North Carolina rounds out the top seeds, also winning twice last week.

                                   [       Record      | Dance Chance |  Seed     ]             
Rank Team                     Conf  Curr   Proj   Chalk  %Odds   %Chg   01/21 01/14
  5. Connecticut              BE    17-2   26-5   27-4    99.1   +5.7     2     3  
  6. Tennessee                SEC   14-4   24-7   26-5    99.1   +5.7     2     3  
  7. Iowa St.                 B12   14-4   23-8   26-5    98.6   +1.1     2     2  
  8. BYU                      B12   14-4   24-7   25-6    98.6   +2.6     2     2  
  9. Auburn                   SEC   16-2   25-6   27-4    96.9   +2.3     3     3  
 10. Alabama                  SEC   12-6   22-9   24-7    96.6   -1.2     3     2  
 11. Creighton                BE    14-5   23-8   26-5    93.7   -0.2     3     3  
 12. Baylor                   B12   14-4   22-9   24-7    93.1   -1.8     3     2  

Finally we have some change. Connecticut and Tennessee both make strong moves to the 2-line and take over as favorites in their respective conferences (Big East and SEC). The Huskies beat Creighton 62-48 to get there, while the Vols crushed former 2-seed Alabama 91-71. Both winners played at home and the road rematch is looming. The Bluejays held onto their 3-seed courtesy of a 3-overtime win at Seton Hall. 

The other former 2-seed was Baylor, who lost games at Kansas State (overtime) and Texas (2 points) last week; they have wins over 3-seed Auburn and 2-seed BYU to fall back on. The Cougars had a mixed week, beating Iowa State 87-72 before falling to Texas Tech on Saturday. The Cyclones rebounded from their loss to beat TCU on the road, holding on for a 1-point win.

                                   [       Record      | Dance Chance |  Seed     ]             
Rank Team                     Conf  Curr   Proj   Chalk  %Odds   %Chg   01/21 01/14
 13. Illinois                 B10   14-4   23-8   24-7    92.4   +7.9     4     5  
 14. Marquette                BE    13-5   22-9   24-7    91.8  +10.3     4     5  
 15. Wisconsin                B10   14-4   22-9   24-7    89.5   -1.2     4     4  
 16. Duke                     ACC   13-4   23-8   26-5    89.1   -3.2     4     4  
 17. New Mexico               MWC   16-3   25-6   26-5    88.5  +11.7     5     6  
 18. Kentucky                 SEC   14-3   23-8   24-7    88.5   +6.8     5     5  
 19. Colorado St.             MWC   15-3   24-7   26-5    87.1   -2.1     5     4  
 20. Kansas                   B12   15-3   21-10  20-11   86.2  +10.2     5     7  
 21. Dayton                   A10   15-2   26-4   28-2    85.9   +4.3     6     5  
 22. Utah St.                 MWC   17-2   27-6   28-5    84.3   -0.6     6     4  
 23. Oklahoma                 B12   15-3   22-9   24-7    84.3  +11.3     6     7  
 24. Utah                     P12   14-5   22-9   24-7    83.1   +5.0     6     6  

Colorado State relinquished the top spot in the Mountain West despite two wins; they beat Air Force in overtime and UNLV by 3 points, both at home. Meanwhile New Mexico beat Utah State 99-86, giving the Lobos the MWC lead and an 11.7% jump in odds and handing the Aggies only their 2nd loss and a 2-line drop to a 6-seed.

Illinois and Marquette both won twice, moving up a seed while Wisconsin and Duke held on as 4-seeds despite their losses last week to Penn State and Pitt. Kansas did even better: advancing 10.2% and up two seeds to a 5-seed despite their loss at West Virginia. The reasons are 1) they also beat Oklahoma State 90-66 last week, and 2) they have wins over 2-seeds Tennessee and UConn, and both those wins aged well last week. Interestingly Kentucky and Kansas are #6 and #7 in the AP poll but only 5-seeds in our projection, with both expected to lose 5 or more games before the end of the regular season.

                                   [       Record      | Dance Chance |  Seed     ]             
Rank Team                     Conf  Curr   Proj   Chalk  %Odds   %Chg   01/21 01/14
 25. San Diego St.            MWC   15-4   23-8   24-7    76.8   +6.4     7     8  
 26. Clemson                  ACC   13-5   21-10  23-8    76.7   -4.6     7     6  
 27. TCU                      B12   13-5   20-11  21-10   75.4   +1.4     7     7  
 28. Michigan St.             B10   12-7   20-11  22-9    75.0   +0.7     7     7  
 29. Texas Tech               B12   15-3   22-9   23-8    74.2  +14.2     8    10  
 30. Florida Atlantic         Amer  15-4   24-7   27-4    74.1   -3.0     8     6  
 31. Indiana St.              MVC   16-3   26-5   28-3    71.0   +2.9     8     8  
 32. Princeton                Ivy   15-1   24-3   26-1    66.1   -6.0     8     8  
 33. Saint Mary's             WCC   14-6   23-8   24-7    65.8   +6.0     9    10  
 34. Cincinnati               B12   13-5   20-11  19-12   65.7   -0.1     9     9  
 35. Colorado                 P12   14-5   21-10  24-7    59.9  +12.8     9    12p 
 36. Boise St.                MWC   13-5   21-10  21-10   59.6   -5.6     9     9  

San Diego State lost at Boise State, 67-66, on Saturday but here the Aztecs go up a seed and the Broncos hold at a 9-seed and lose some steam. Boise's previous game was a home loss to UNLV while SDSU topped Nevada earlier in the week, which overshadowed the head-to-head result. Clemson and Florida Atlantic both fall from 6-seeds, the Tigers lost to Georgia Tech at home in double overtime, their 4th loss in 5 games. The Owls won twice but their overtime win over lowly UTSA was enough to dock their Strength and weaken their projection down to an 8-seed. There they join other mid-Majors Indiana State (Missouri Valley) and Princeton (Ivy), while St. Mary's of the WCC is the top 9-seed.

The two big movers in this section were Texas Tech and Colorado. The Red Raiders were crushed at Houston, 77-54, but that didn't matter after they upset BYU 85-78, launching them from a 10-seed to an 8-seed, up 14.2%. The Buffaloes beat both Oregon and Oregon State, by 16 points and 33 points, enough to take them off the bubble from a 12-seed play-in to a 9-seed.

                                   [       Record      | Dance Chance |  Seed     ]             
Rank Team                     Conf  Curr   Proj   Chalk  %Odds   %Chg   01/21 01/14
 37. Wake Forest              ACC   13-5   20-11  21-10   58.7   -1.4    10    10  
 38. Gonzaga                  WCC   13-5   22-8   23-7    58.6  +16.0    10        
 39. Mississippi St.          SEC   13-5   20-11  20-11   58.4   -5.8    10     9  
 40. St. John's               BE    12-7   19-12  18-13   58.2  -12.3    10     8  
 41. Villanova                BE    11-7   18-13  16-15   57.5   -7.7    11     9  
 42. SMU                      Amer  13-5   23-8   25-6    55.5   +7.2    11    12p 
 43. Nebraska                 B10   14-5   20-11  20-11   55.2   -1.3    11    11  
 44. Nevada                   MWC   15-4   22-10  21-11   54.8   -7.9    11    10  
 45. Texas A&M                SEC   11-7   19-12  21-10   53.3   -1.4    12p   11  
 46. Drake                    MVC   16-3   25-6   26-5    52.9  +15.1    12p       
 47. Seton Hall               BE    13-6   19-12  20-11   51.7  +13.8    12p       
 48. Memphis                  Amer  15-4   23-8   23-8    49.7   -9.9    12p   11  

The Bubble: Three teams make big jumps to join the seeding, the biggest being Gonzaga who was looking very borderline just last week. The Zags didn't beat anyone that important, but the enormity of their wins over Pepperdine (86-61) and San Diego (105-63!) convinced our power rating that their outlook was favorable; they were up 16.0% as a 10-seed. Drake and Seton Hall joined as the last two teams in. The Bulldogs were up 15.1%; like Gonzaga it was due to two convinving wins, Illinois State (77-56, on the road), and Evansville 97-48. Seton Hall was only 1-1 last week, but their loss to Creighton in triple overtime barely hurt them, while their 80-65 win over St. John's propped them up 13.8% while helping knock the Red Storm (who also lost to Marquette) down from an 8-seed to a 10-seed. Another Big East team, Villanova, also lost twice (to Marquette and UConn) and fell from a 9- to an 11-seed.

Memphis lost to South Florida and Tulane but held on as the projected Last Team In. With SMU up to an 11-seed it makes the Tigers the #3 American Athletic team. Is there room for 3 AAC teams in the tournament? Memphis has a head-to-head win over the Mustangs, as does 12-seed play-in team Texas A&M. Speaking of conferences, Nevada is the #6 Mountain West team, and the MWC will probably get 5 bids tops. More concerning for the Wolf Pack is their 3-game losing streak after falling the San Diego State and Wyoming.

                                   [       Record      | Dance Chance |  Seed     ]             
Rank Team                     Conf  Curr   Proj   Chalk  %Odds   %Chg   01/21 01/14
 49. Ohio St.                 B10   13-5   19-12  20-11   49.5   -4.6          11  
 50. Iowa                     B10   11-7   19-12  21-10   47.0   +0.8          12p 
 51. Florida                  SEC   12-6   19-12  20-11   42.9   +0.2              
 52. Washington St.           P12   13-6   20-11  20-11   40.7   -0.8              
 53. Providence               BE    12-6   18-13  17-14   40.5  +10.1              
 54. Syracuse                 ACC   13-5   20-11  20-11   39.6  +14.9              
 55. Virginia Tech            ACC   11-7   18-13  19-12   38.9   +0.4              
 56. Miami FL                 ACC   12-6   19-12  20-11   37.6  -14.0          12p 
 57. James Madison            SB    17-2   26-4   27-3    37.0   -2.8    12    12  
 59. Virginia                 ACC   13-5   20-11  19-12   36.8  +13.7              
 60. South Carolina           SEC   15-3   20-11  19-12   36.8   -4.7              
 62. Samford                  SC    17-2   26-5   29-2    33.6   +1.7    12    13  
 63. Grand Canyon             WAC   17-2   27-5   30-2    32.6   -7.0    13    12  
 64. Oregon                   P12   13-5   20-11  21-10   32.5   -3.3              
 65. Texas                    B12   13-5   17-14  16-15   31.9   +1.2              
 66. McNeese St.              Slnd  16-2   28-3   29-2    31.2   +3.9    13    13  
 70. Mississippi              SEC   15-3   20-11  19-12   28.1   -8.9

The Lower Bubble: Two Big Ten teams were pushed out of the seedings; Ohio State was upset by Michigan, while Iowa fell to Purdue at home. Neither would have fallen out if not for the three soaring teams that displaced them, but that's what makes the bubble so pernicious: it doesn't always matter what you do, other teams can pass you with big wins. So any slight stumble could mean you're out of the tournament.

Speaking of stumbles, Miami's up and down year continues and this week it's a down with losses to Florida State (at home) and Syracuse. The 'Canes have lost 4 of 5 after an 11-2 start, dropping them into a virtual dead heat with the Orange, who edged Miami 72-69 Saturday and increased their odds by 14.9%. Two other ACC teams are right in this region two: Virginia and Virginia Tech. The Cavs beat the Hokies 65-57 last week. These four teams are gunning for probably the last spots open to the ACC, which will get 5 or 6 bids this year. Currently there are four teams in the seedings, so 2 or 3 of these teams will be out of luck most likely.

Several teams here have good records and even AP poll votes, but aren't expected to make it. South Carolina is 15-3 after losing to Georgia and beating Arkansas, but they're expected to lose 8 or 9 games from here in the SEC. Mississippi is in the same boat: 15-3 after road losses to LSU and Auburn; their remaining schedule is even worse. At #72 and #89 in Strength the odds are against both of them but both have wins over teams in the lower bubble: Ole Miss beat Florida and Last Team In Memphis. SC beat Virginia Tech, Grand Canyon, and 10-seed Mississippi State.

The projected auto-bids here still have work to do if they want bid security against a conference tournament upset. Grand Canyon's loss to Seattle was only their 2nd (also South Carolina, as just mentioned) after a 14-game win streak. To get an at-large from the WAC they'll have to finish much closer to their "chalk" 30-2 than their expected 27-5. Samford is also 17-2 after dropping their first two games to Purdue and VCU, both on the road. Again, 29-2 in the Southern Conference might put them in position for a bid, but 26-5 would leave them short. James Madison rebounded from their first 2 losses of the season but still lost ground percentage-wise. And McNeese State has won 11 straight but their odds have declined the last several weeks as their top victim, Michigan, has lost 4 of 5 since then. The Cowboys gained a bit back this time after two more wins.

                                   [       Record      | Dance Chance |  Seed     ]             
Rank Team                     Conf  Curr   Proj   Chalk  %Odds   %Chg   01/21 01/14
140. Toledo                   MAC   11-7   19-11  21-9    <0.1   -1.4              
142. Belmont                  MVC   11-8   17-14  17-14   <0.1   -1.5              
144. Oklahoma St.             B12    8-10  11-20   9-22   <0.1   -0.5              
149. Winthrop                 BSth  13-8   19-12  19-12   <0.1   -1.2              
150. Western Kentucky         CUSA  13-6   19-11  20-10   <0.1   -0.6              
153. Longwood                 BSth  14-7   20-11  22-9     0.0   -0.6              
154. Lipscomb                 ASun  12-8   20-11  21-10    0.0   -1.0    15    15  
165. Southern                 SWAC   9-9   18-12  21-9     0.0   -0.7    16p   16  
170. Purdue Fort Wayne        Horz  13-7   20-11  22-9     0.0   -1.5              
171. Missouri St.             MVC   10-9   15-16  15-16    0.0   -0.5              

Here are ten teams who fell to zero or near-zero Dance Chance with a thud, each losing at least 1/2 of a percentage point of odds. The Missouri Valley saw Belmont and Missouri State tumble. Belmont fell from meager but still-tangible 1.5% odds to near-zero after two losses put them at 11-8, probably beyond what an MVC team can have to get an at-large. Missouri State's 8th and 9th losses put them at absolute zero. The Big South is very unlikely to get an at-large bid, and Winthrop and Longwood have 8 and 7 losses after last week's action, and now only projected conference winner High Point (16-4) has above-zero odds (1.1%).

Oklahoma State, being in the Big Twelve, had 8 losses but still had a 0.5% chance to rebound to bid territory, given their opportunity for big wins. But after two more losses, the 8-10 Cowboys have less than a 1 in 1000 chance of getting it done. Toledo from the MAC lost to Central Michigan, going from 6 losses to 7, which is (almost) a dealbreaker for a MAC team. Even a 7-loss MAC team would have an uphill, and they'd have an 8th loss after the conference tournament. Same with Western Kentucky in the CUSA after two losses put them at 13-6, do they really have any chance at all? They're the last team that gets within striking distance even in 1 of 1000 trials. Lipscomb and Southern are expected to win their conferences, and they have to at this point. The Bisons have 8 losses now, and the Jaguars are just 9-9 after falling twice last week. 

The worst fall of the week—and of the last several weeks—is the collapse of Purdue Fort Wayne. The Mastodons were 13-2 just three weeks ago with a 20.6% Dance Chance! They projected to 26-5, and looked good enough to run through the Horizon League untouched which would make them 29-2 and certainly in the at-large discussion. But five losses in a row diminished those odds week by week, until last week's disappointments vs. IUPUI and Cleveland State dumped them to 0.0% odds, and more significantly left them 4th in the league. As far as I know there was no catalyst for this drop in quality such as an injury to a key player. Their only hope now is to recapture their earlier-season form in the conference tournament. And really, that was probably their only hope all along, but odds of that looked a lot better a few weeks ago! 

Memphis vs. Mississippi and the AP poll and power ratings

Every year there's a team—or a few teams—who are ranked high in the polls but lag tremendously in predictive power ratings. Usually these teams win a lot of games but not convincingly, but pollsters kind of "have to" keep moving them up. They seem to be getting better at scouting power ratings and punishing lower-ranking teams with inflated records, but there's a limit to it, and they mostly seem to be remembering last year's power ratings, not current ones.

Ken Pomeroy has a Substack article about Memphis, who just entered the top ten (when they were 15-2, before they lost to South Florida the other day). They were only #45 in Pomeroy at the time, and even worse, #57 in Strength.

It made me wonder what was giving them a pass with the voters. They're a mid-Major, so it's not based on the conference. They ranked #11 in my Success ratings, so if you ignore how they win, I guess there's a good reason to put them near the top ten. They have a lot of wins over Major-conference foes: Missouri, Michigan, Arkansas, Virginia, Texas A&M, Clemson. And their only losses are to Villanova and Mississippi.

So on a résumé level they're not bad at all. But why were voters ranking the Tigers on résumé while ranking 15-1 Mississippi so poorly?

All season Mississippi has been in "others receiving votes" as they keep on winning. They were 15-1 at the start of the week and just made the top 25. It makes little sense—they're a Major conference team, yeah they've played an easy schedule but since when did a Major conference team have to go 15-1 to make the top 25? I can only assume the pollsters were looking at power ratings, where Ole Miss falls at #70 in Pomeroy.

Or, they're thinking about last year, where Ole Miss was #122 and Memphis was #20 in Pomeroy. That's the only thing separating these teams so much.

Especially considering that 15-1 Mississippi has a win over 15-2 Memphis. Are we not even using head-to-head at all any more?

I think if this were the 70s, these teams would both be in the top ten, and Ole Miss would be one spot ahead due to their head-to-head win. Now the pollsters look at the power ratings—last year's power ratings—when deciding how legit a team is. And not much else.

Interestingly, my Overall power rating (which combines predictive and reward-style ratings) had Memphis #23 and Mississippi #24 on Sunday, about 3/100 of a point apart. I guess that head-to-head win didn't quite do it for the Rebels.

But with their latest loss (at home, to South Florida) Memphis plummeted to #48. Ouch. The Tigers' stellar record was keeping them aloft, but no more. And it was back to reality for Mississippi, too, but not as harshly—they fell to #35.

2023-2024 week 2: Iowa State, Pittsburgh, Nevada, BYU soar; St. Mary's plummets

Dance Chance week #2. Ahead of all the Thanksgiving tournaments, the 2nd week of action causes big changes as the reality of this season—early as it is—starts to sink in.

                                   |       Record      | Dance Chance | Seed                   
Rank Team                     Conf   Rec   Proj   Chalk  %Odds   %Chg   Proj  Prev
  1. Alabama                  SEC    4-0   25-5   29-1    90.3   +9.9     1     1 
  2. Houston                  B12    6-0   26-5   31-0    88.4   +8.9     1     1 
  3. Arizona                  P12    5-0   26-5   29-2    87.5  +10.1     1     1 
  4. Connecticut              BE     4-0   25-5   30-0    87.0   +6.3     1     1 
  5. Kansas                   B12    3-0   22-7   25-4    77.6   +8.4     2     2 
  6. Tennessee                SEC    3-0   23-6   27-2    76.4   +1.0     2     2 
  7. Purdue                   B10    3-0   23-6   28-1    74.0   +5.1     2     3 
  8. Iowa St.                 B12    4-0   22-7   24-5    72.7  +19.1     2     5 

The top seeds remain the same, with Alabama ascending to the top seed in week 2. The Tide have scored 105, 102, 102, and 98 in their first four games against opponents that aren't as bad as that sounds (none are in the bottom 100). They play Ohio State in the first round of the Emerald Classic (not a very stacked tournament). Of the 2-seeds, Purdue is up a notch after getting past Xavier at home 83-71. But it's Iowa State that makes that big move this week, up from a 5-seed at 4-0. The Cyclones didn't beat a major opponent but they've been scorching foes by an average of 45 1/2 points. 

                                   |       Record      | Dance Chance | Seed                   
Rank Team                     Conf   Rec   Proj   Chalk  %Odds   %Chg   Proj  Prev
  9. Gonzaga                  WCC    2-0   23-5   26-2    72.0   -0.7     3     2 
 10. Creighton                BE     4-0   23-7   26-4    70.3   +6.9     3     3 
 11. UCLA                     P12    3-0   23-7   29-1    69.4   -5.1     3     2 
 12. Duke                     ACC    3-1   24-7   28-3    66.7  +12.0     3     5 
 13. Miami FL                 ACC    5-0   24-7   28-3    66.2  +11.4     4     4 
 14. San Diego St.            MWC    4-1   23-8   27-4    62.5  +12.1     4     6 
 15. Marquette                BE     3-0   21-8   24-5    61.9   +6.6     4     4 
 16. Pittsburgh               ACC    4-0   23-7   23-7    60.0  +18.0     4     9 
 17. Texas                    B12    4-0   21-9   24-6    59.5   -4.2     5     3 
 18. Kentucky                 SEC    3-1   21-10  22-9    58.1   +6.3     5     5 
 19. Virginia                 ACC    4-0   22-8   26-4    57.8   +9.2     5     7 
 20. Nevada                   MWC    4-0   23-7   26-4    57.5  +16.8     5    10 

Gonzaga and UCLA both drop to 3-seeds and actually lose ground in terms of tournament odds, an oddity near the top. Gonzaga didn't play so it wasn't their fault, and besides the Zags play 2-seed Purdue tonight in the first round of an absolute KILLER Maui Classic (held in Honolulu this year for obvious reasons). UCLA slips a notch again as the reality sets in that they don't have Tiger Clarke or Jamie Jaques any more. They get a chance to prove themselves against 4-seed Marquette tonight—also in the Maui Classic.

Duke slipped past Miami to reclaim the ACC "title"; the Blue Devils beat Michigan State in Chicago last week and moved up to a 3-seed. San Diego State rebounded from their loss to BYU by beating St. Mary's and Washington in Las Vegas and they're back up to a 4-seed. But Pittsburgh is the star on the 4-line as the Panthers' 51-point win over Jacksonville has their stock up, at least for now. They'll have to prove it against better competition pretty soon, starting with Florida on Wednesday and then either Baylor or Oregon State after, then Missouri, Clemson, and West Virginia over the next few weeks; that stretch will show whether they're going to challenge Duke and Miami (and Virginia, who is up two seeds to a 5-seed) in the ACC.

Texas drops a few seeds for only beating Louisville by a point. Any other time in the last 40 years that would be something to brag about, but the Cardinals have been in rough shape since the pandemic basically. The Longhorns need to gear up for 1-seed UConn tonight. Nevada comes at the 5-seed from a different direction, up from a 10-seed after blowing out Pacific 88-39 and Portland 108-83. They won't be tested much before the Mountain West conference season but they're looking like a contender so far.

                                   |       Record      | Dance Chance | Seed                   
Rank Team                     Conf   Rec   Proj   Chalk  %Odds   %Chg   Proj  Prev
 21. Baylor                   B12    4-0   20-10  22-8    57.4   +6.9     6     6 
 22. TCU                      B12    4-0   20-10  25-5    56.1   +6.4     6     6 
 23. Utah St.                 MWC    3-1   23-8   29-2    53.9   +9.3     6     8 
 24. Mississippi St.          SEC    5-0   22-9   23-8    52.6  +11.4     6     9 
 25. Texas A&M                SEC    4-0   20-9   22-7    52.4   +3.6     7     6 
 26. BYU                      B12    4-0   20-11  15-16   52.1  +20.2     7       
 27. Bradley                  MVC    3-0   24-6   28-2    51.4  +15.1     7    12 
 28. Memphis                  Amer   3-0   21-8   27-2    49.7   -7.0     7     3 
 29. North Carolina           ACC    3-0   19-10  19-10   49.4   +8.4     8    10 
 30. Xavier                   BE     3-2   20-11  23-8    48.8   +1.1     8     7 
 31. Colorado                 P12    3-0   20-10  21-9    47.3   +5.9     8     9 
 32. Clemson                  ACC    4-0   20-11  22-9    46.7  +10.4     8    12p

Mississippi State had a good weekend, beating Washington State and Northwestern in the Hall of Fame tipoff. BYU didn't play nearly as good of opponents but they jump into the seeds at a 7 after beating SE Louisiana and Morgan State by a combined 100 points. Now there are only six teams ahead of the Cougars in their new conference, the Big Twelve; they have only a few decent tests before getting into conference play. They start the Vegas Showdown on Thursday vs. Arizona State.

Bradley makes a solid jump too, up 5 lines from a 12-seed. After winning two overtime games to start the season, the Braves won comfortably against Tarleton State but more importantly, previous victim Utah State recovered with a few solid wins and propped themselves up to a 6-seed which helped Bradley. Clemson also jumped quite a bit, from the bubble to a low 8-seed; they beat ex-10-seed Boise State 85-68.

Memphis, last week's big mover up, is a big mover down this week. A weak game vs. lowly Alabama State more than offset last week's win over Missouri (who has been struggling ever since, downgrading that win). So the Tigers are now lower than the 6-seed where they started, but still tops in the American Athletic conference (for now).

                                   |       Record      | Dance Chance | Seed                   
Rank Team                     Conf   Rec   Proj   Chalk  %Odds   %Chg   Proj  Prev
 33. Arkansas                 SEC    3-1   19-10  22-7    45.6  -10.1     9     4 
 34. Utah                     P12    3-2   18-12  19-11   45.2   +1.8     9     8 
 35. Oregon                   P12    3-0   20-10  22-8    45.2    0.0     9     7 
 36. Auburn                   SEC    3-1   21-10  25-6    44.1   +2.0     9     8 
 37. Iowa                     B10    3-1   19-11  21-9    43.9   +0.5    10     8 
 38. Florida Atlantic         Amer   2-1   21-9   26-4    43.8   -9.6    10     5 
 39. N.C. State               ACC    3-0   20-10  23-7    43.8   +7.5    10    11 
 40. Princeton                Ivy    4-0   22-5   26-1    43.5   +9.9    10     
 41. Oklahoma                 B12    4-0   19-12  15-16   42.0  +10.8    11       
 42. Drake                    MVC    3-0   22-7   25-4    41.7   +8.7    11       
 43. Cincinnati               B12    4-0   19-12  17-14   40.5   +5.5    11       
 44. Michigan                 B10    3-1   18-11  16-13   40.5   -1.4    12p    9 
 45. Liberty                  CUSA   5-0   24-7   27-4    40.4  +12.1    11    13 
 46. Michigan St.             B10    3-2   19-12  21-10   37.5    0.0    12p   11
 47. USC                      P12    3-1   18-12  19-11   36.1  -11.0    12p    7
 48. New Mexico               MWC    2-1   20-11  23-8    36.1   +2.6    12p      

Arkansas is another team that drops significantly, from a 4-seed to a 9-seed. The reason is a home loss to UNC-Greensboro which puts the Razorbacks at 3-1 and changes their outlook from 21-8 to 19-10. Florida Atlantic mimics Arkansas' 5-line drop by falling from 5 to 10 after suffering their own home embarrassment, losing 61-52 to Bryant. Overconfidence or just overrated? The Owls can redeem themselves vs. Butler in the first round of the ESPN Events tournament, an 8-team affair that includes Iowa State and Texas A&M. Arkansas heads to Nassau to take on Stanford in the Battle 4 Atlantis, which boasts North Carolina and Memphis among others.

New teams in the seedings include Princeton who already has wins over Rutgers and Duquesne; Oklahoma, who despite being favored only for 15 wins (vs. 16 losses) grades out to 19-12 with their tough Big 12 schedule; Drake of the Missouri Valley who was 3-0 at the time of this projection but has already lost to Stephen F Austin in the Cayman Islands tournament so they might not be here next week; Cincinnati, who is doing the "blitzing poor opponents" thing prior to their Big 12 entry; and New Mexico, who slips in as a play-in team after edging Texas-Arlington 82-80 at home. Oddly this puts them 1 spot ahead of St. Mary's who beat them 72-58 in week one.

Some big names slip to the bottom of the bubble, including Michigan and Michigan State. The Spartans fell to Duke, but the earlier James Madison loss is still dragging them down. The Wolverines lost to Long Beach State at home, 94-86 which isn't a horrible loss but calls their outlook into question. USC drops the most, from a 7-seed to a 12-seed play in, following a home loss to Cal-Irvine last Tuesday. Meanwhile Liberty is soaring in our power ratings; they're in the top 10 or even the top 5 if you don't use any priors, but only an 11-seed if you do.

                                   |       Record      | Dance Chance | Seed                   
Rank Team                     Conf   Rec   Proj   Chalk  %Odds   %Chg   Proj  Prev
 49. Saint Mary's             WCC    2-3   20-11  26-5    35.8  -19.7           4
 50. Toledo                   MAC    3-0   22-8   26-4    35.6   +1.7    12    12
 51. Texas Tech               B12    3-0   17-12  16-13   34.7   +1.4         
 52. Yale                     Ivy    4-2   21-8   24-5    34.6   -0.4          12
 53. Penn St.                 B10    4-0   19-10  20-9    34.5   -0.3         
 54. Providence               BE     4-1   19-12  19-12   34.0   +2.9         
 55. Rutgers                  B10    4-1   19-12  20-11   33.7   -1.4          12p
 59. Illinois                 B10    4-1   19-13  18-14   32.6   -4.7          11
 62. Boise St.                MWC    2-1   17-12  19-10   31.0   -7.9          10
 77. Northwestern             B10    4-1   18-13  19-12   24.7  -12.6          11

St. Mary's took a big dive from a 4-seed to the First Team Out this week. 2-1 going into the week, they lost two more to San Diego State (79-54) and Xavier (66-49). Those are good teams but the games weren't competitive by the 30 minute mark in either case. They're only underdogs in two more games (guess who that is) in the WCC, but project to just 20-11.

The other teams that fall out were on the bubble to start with, so it's mostly random fluctuation. Yale got booted from the Ivy League "title" so they are no longer seeded; Rutgers won twice but they were on the Play-in line; Illinois lost to Marquette at home, not a terrible thing but if you're a bubble team it might knock you out; Boise State as mentioned above got beat by Clemson; and Northwestern drops out after losing to Mississippi State in tournament play. The Big Ten continues to be re-evaluated downward pretty much across the board, with Purdue the big exception.

2023 NCAA Tournament Preview, Odds & Prediction: (7) Missouri vs. (10) Utah State

All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule

Missouri Tigers
Seed: 7
Record: 24-9
Conference: SEC

vs.

Utah State Aggies
Seed: 10
Record: 26-8
Conference: Mountain West

Date: Thursday, March 16
Time: 1:40 pm Eastern
Region: South
Location: Sacramento, CA  
Channel: TNT

 

A rare first-round game where if you pick the favorite, you're picking the underdog.

     Missouri                           Utah State

Power Ratings

Strength:          #55             Strength:          #22
   Median:   #70                      Median:   #13
   Markov:   #53                      Markov:   #21
Pomeroy:           #51             Pomeroy:           #18
   Offense:  #10                      Offense:  #13
   Defense:  #178                     Defense:  #64
BPI:               #61             BPI:               #42
LRMC:              #63             LRMC:              #16

Other Measures:

SOS:               #56             SOS:               #61    
Tempo (Offense):   #43             Tempo (Offense):   #107
Consistency:       #332            Consistency:       #248
Str + Reliability: #74             Str + Reliability: #27
Str + Potential:   #40             Str + Potential:   #27

2nd half season:   #62             2nd half season:   #32
Last 6:            #29             Last 6:            #6
Injury Mod Rank:   #72             Injury Mod Rank:   #19

MegaScreen Ranking                 MegaScreen Ranking
  Final 4:  NA                       Final 4:  NA
  Sweet 16: NA                       Sweet 16: #15

10-seed Utah State's numbers outclass Missouri's and it's not even really that close. #22 in Strength to #55 (even wider by median performance), #18 to #51 in KenPom, a closer #42 to #61 in BPI, but a wide #16 to #63 in LRMC. While the teams have relatively even offenses, Missouri's terrible defense (#178) makes Utah State's mediocre D look great.

Missouri can't claim to have faced tougher competition, either, as the Mountain West was great this year and Missouri's non-conference SOS was—other than Kansas and Illinois—a wall of Quad 3 and Quad 4 teams. Both teams play fairly quick tempos on offense which—along with the quality of the offenses and poorer defenses—should lead to an exciting game. Neither team is very predictable, either, which adds intrigue. To top it off, both are playing better basketball very recently than most of the season, though Missouri has become notably worse with the absence of Isaiah Mosley.

Neither team is seen as a deep tournament threat by the MegaScreen, and only Utah State is rated as a Sweet Sixteen possibility, a probability in fact at #15. Missouri's poor defensive rating screens them out, along with their 2nd-worst-in-nation rebounding on defense.

Season overview: Missouri

• Wins vs. tournament teams (8): (16)Southeast Missouri St.+7, =(9)Illinois+22, (6)Kentucky+14, (8)Arkansas+3, (6)Iowa St.+17, @(4)Tennessee+1, (11)Mississippi St.+OT, =(4)Tennessee+8
  
• Losses to tournament teams (8): (1)Kansas-28, @(8)Arkansas-6, @(7)Texas A&M-18, (1)Alabama-21, @(11)Mississippi St.-11, @(9)Auburn-33, (7)Texas A&M-9, =(1)Alabama-11
• Other losses (1): @Florida-9

Overview: Following a disastrous 2022 season, Missouri rode a very easy early schedule to 9-0 but hit a 95-67 wall against 1-seed Kansas at home. The Tigers rebounded to beat 9-seed Illinois and even topped 6-seed Kentucky before the losses started to mount. Despite this, they got in some good wins, over 6-seed Iowa State in the SEC/Big Twelve Challenge, and 4-seed Tennessee not once but twice. They won 5 of 6 at the end but three of those—Georgia, LSU, and Ole Miss—were more akin to their early foes, not the cream of the SEC crop. Getting to the tournament seems like a miracle, though, compared to how they did last year.

Missouri's offense is guard-powered and led by Kobe Brown's 15.8 points per game. Another key guard, Isaiah Mosley, played sporadically for the team this season and they are better with him in the lineup; he's been out for personal reasons for a month now and there's no indication he'll play in the tournament.

             **************************************************************

Season overview: Utah State

• Wins vs. tournament teams (4): (12)Oral Roberts+10, (11)Nevada+9, (10)Boise St.+13, =(10)Boise St.+10
  
• Losses to tournament teams (5): @(10)Boise St.-23, @(11)Nevada-15, @(5)San Diego St.-10, (5)San Diego St.-2, =(5)San Diego St.-5
• Other losses (3): Weber St.-3, =SMU-3, @San Jose St.-5

Overview: Utah State was overlooked all year until they couldn't be ignored any more. Even as the Mountain West gained respect, that respect was seemingly denied the Aggies, who failed to show up in mock brackets until very late in the season (they were in SportsRatings' Dance Chance all season). The breakthrough was a 7-game winning streak at the end of the season where they beat Boise State twice and once again almost beat San Diego State but fell short for the third time this season.

Utah State is a very tall team but it's 6-1 guard Steven Ashworth that does the most damage on offense, averaging 16.3 points per game. Their starting lineup includes a trio over 6-8 and they have a 7-footer in their rotation.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: It's an interesting dynamic where the 10-seed is clearly favored over the 7-seed. Missouri has probably felt like underdogs all year, however, after last year's dismal season. Utah State, as a mid-Major team, won't feel like the favorite against the SEC team either.

Utah State is a very tall team while Missouri lacks height. This advantage can turn into a disadvantage at times, but usually it's an advantage and Utah State uses their height well. Missouri is just about the worst rebounding team in the country and having this height disadvantage can't help there.

In general this game will be the story of two very good offenses going up against mismatched defenses. Both teams shoot the ball a lot better than the other team defends. Missouri does one thing really well on defense, and that's cause turnovers; Utah State isn't terribly vulnerable to steals, but it suggest a path for the Tigers.

Utah State's defense against 2-pointers is actually really good. But Missouri loves to shoot the three. The Tigers are a bad rebounding team, especially on defense, while the Aggies are solid rebounders on defense and will probably find success on the offensive glass, too, given how poor the Tigers are there.

With a probable quick tempo and a lot of scoring, this should be a really fun game to watch.

Vegas Line:

Utah State by   1

Power rating: spread

Utah State by   3.7

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Missouri:       39.8% 
Utah State:     60.2% 

The script is flipped by Utah State, the 10-seed. The Aggies are favored by both Vegas and the Strength power rating, and win 60.2% of the game-comparisons. That's the opposite of the normal situation where the 7-seed wins 60.8% of the time.

Bottom line: Even if Utah State weren't the outright favorite this would be a good pick for a 10-seed to upset a 7-seed. Missouri is pretty unpredictable and might rise to the occasion, but Utah State is playing their best right now. The Tigers accomplished their goal of a turnaround season and that might have to be enough for them.

Final prediction: Utah State 84,  Missouri 81

More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.

2023 NCAA Tournament Previews, Odds, & Predictions: (4) Virginia vs. (13) Furman

All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule

Virginia Cavaliers
Seed: 4
Record: 25-7
Conference: ACC

vs.

Furman Paladins
Seed: 13
Record: 27-7
Conference: Southern

Date: Thursday, March 16
Time: 12:40 pm Eastern
Region: South
Location: Orlando, FL  
Channel: truTV

 

Tempos will clash when the Cavaliers take on the Paladins.

     Virginia                           Furman

Power Ratings

Strength:          #39             Strength:          #91
   Median:   #42                      Median:   #88
   Markov:   #28                      Markov:   #96
Pomeroy:           #34             Pomeroy:           #89
   Offense:  #74                      Offense:  #33
   Defense:  #25                      Defense:  #183
BPI:               #22             BPI:               #92
LRMC:              #32             LRMC:              #80

Other Measures:

SOS:               #73             SOS:               #229    
Tempo (Offense):   #343            Tempo (Offense):   #51
Consistency:       #72             Consistency:       #206
Str + Reliability: #24             Str + Reliability: #87
Str + Potential:   #61             Str + Potential:   #88

2nd half season:   #55             2nd half season:   #67
Last 6:            #42             Last 6:            #105
Injury Mod Rank:   #43             Injury Mod Rank:   #90

MegaScreen Ranking                 MegaScreen Ranking
  Final 4:  NA                       Final 4:  NA
  Sweet 16: #18                      Sweet 16: #32

A clear advantage to the 4-seed, not unexpected, but Furman is no slouch, ranking in the top 100 for the most part while Virginia is a very weak 4. The Paladins' strength is on offense, where they outrank the Cavs, but their weakness is defense where they're barely in the top 200. And with Virginia boasting a top 25 defense, they're more than equipped to deal with a strong offense.

Virginia also has played a much more challenging schedule, and is a quite consistent team, two things that tend to help prevent upsets (though the Cavaliers had essentially identical SOS and consistency numbers when they were famously upset as a 1-seed). The major difference in style is the teams' tempo on offense; Virginia as always plays very slow, while the Paladins are a much quicker team. On defense both teams tend to have long possessions so the overall pace should be pretty slow.

Furman hasn't played their best very recently but they did enough to win the Southern Conference tournament, and in general they were better the 2nd half of the season. Neither team is seen as a Final Four threat by the MegaScreen program; Virginia is a borderline Sweet Sixteen team while Furman is a longer shot but has hope, which is pretty good for a 13-seed.

Season overview: Virginia

• Wins vs. tournament teams (4): =(3)Baylor+7, =(9)Illinois+9, (11)N.C. State+13, (5)Duke+OT
  
• Losses to tournament teams (4): (1)Houston-8, @(5)Miami FL-2, @(11)Pittsburgh-3, =(5)Duke-10
• Other losses (3): @Virginia Tech-6, @Boston College-15, @North Carolina-8

Overview: Virginia had a very Virginia-like season: lots of wins and a tie for the regular-season ACC title. They might not have been as dominant as the best Cavalier teams of recent past but it helped that the ACC is in a bit of a slump. In the pre-conference season they did beat 3-seed Baylor while falling to 1-seed Houston. Just when it looked like they were really hitting their stride they fell to Duke in the conference tournament final.

Virginia is a veteran team; senior Armaan Franklin leads the team with 12.5 ppg and 5th-year senior point guard Kihei Clark is still dishing out the assists for the Cavaliers.

             **************************************************************

Season overview: Furman

• Wins vs. tournament teams (0): none
  
• Losses to tournament teams (2): =(10)Penn St.-5, @(11)N.C. State-19
• Other losses (5): =Old Dominion-5, High Point-3, @Western Carolina-12, UNC Greensboro-OT, @The Citadel-4

Overview: After playing Penn State close, Furman follow that up very impressively, losing to Old Dominion and then High Point in the pre-conference season. NC State handled them pretty easily, too. But they hit their stride when the competition got easier, and looked like they were becoming unstoppable before a shocking loss to The Citadel brought them down to earth. The Paladins weren't quite as impressive after that but took care of business in the Southern Conference tournament to get a bid.

Furman boasts the best 2-point shooting in the country; leading scorers Mike Bothwell (18.0 ppg) and Jalen Slawson (15.7) both shoot over 60% on 2's. They're only average from behind the arc, however, and they take quite a few 3s.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: Both teams play "slow" on defense so the overall tempo is probably going to be pretty slow, and that's the way Virginia likes it. Furman will try to speed things up on offense but the overall pace will be subdued, not a run-and-gun.

Virginia will have their hands full on defense, as Furman can shoot the ball very well, they don't turn it over, and they look for lots of threes. Virginia's defense tends to prevent easy 2's while letting the opponent shoot three-pointers, a strategy that could work against the Paladins who are great 2-point shooters but not great 3-point shooters.

While Virginia's offense isn't the best, they should do pretty well against Furman's D which is lacking. These possessions will be long ones and the Paladins need to stick with it to have a chance to win with their offense.

Vegas Line:

Virginia by   5 1/2

Power rating: spread

Virginia by   5.2

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Virginia:      64.3% 
Furman:        35.7% 

A pretty narrow spread for a 4-seed vs. a 13-seed, where the former has won almost 80% of the contests. We have Virginia winning about 2 in 3 games based on the teams' performances this year, so Furman is definitely a live underdog and not a bad pick depending on how your brackets reward upsets.

Bottom line: Going in I thought this was a good upset pick, as Virginia is a pretty poor 4-seed. But they are a veteran team and while Furman's offense is great, the Virginia pack-line seems ready-made to defend against Furman's strength (2 pointers) and lead them willingly into their relative weakness (3 pointers). Furman also hasn't beaten any team in the top 100 of Kenpom and that's a bit much.

Final prediction: Virginia 62, Furman 48

More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.

2023 NCAA Tournament Previews, Odds, & Prediction: (8) Maryland vs. (9) West Virginia

All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule

Maryland Terrapins
Seed: 8
Record: 21-12
Conference: Big Ten

vs.

West Virginia Mountaineers
Seed: 9
Record: 19-14
Conference: Big Twelve

Date: Thursday, March 16
Time: 12:15 pm Eastern
Region: South
Location: Birmingham, AL  
Channel: CBS

 

8- vs 9-seeds are almost always a tossup, and this one in particular is tough to get a handle on.

     Maryland                           West Virginia

Power Ratings

Strength:          #27             Strength:          #15
   Median:   #25                      Median:   #23
   Markov:   #17                      Markov:   #24
Pomeroy:           #22             Pomeroy:           #17
   Offense:  #35                      Offense:  #15
   Defense:  #33                      Defense:  #52
BPI:               #20             BPI:               #23
LRMC:              #25             LRMC:              #22

Other Measures:

SOS:               #48             SOS:               #4   
Tempo (Offense):   #247            Tempo (Offense):   #207
Consistency:       #303            Consistency:       #330
Str + Reliability: #38             Str + Reliability: #33
Str + Potential:   #24             Str + Potential:   #11

2nd half season:   #17             2nd half season:   #26
Last 6:            #47             Last 6:            #12
Injury Mod Rank:   #26             Injury Mod Rank:   #16

MegaScreen Ranking                 MegaScreen Ranking
  Final 4:  #NA                      Final 4:  #NA
  Sweet 16: #41                      Sweet 16: #38

West Virginia has a slight edge in Strength and Pomeroy, but it's close in the LRMC and the BPI favors the Terps. Whichever team is on offense should have an edge as the Mountaineers offense is #15 while their defense is just #52. 

West Virginia has also played a much tougher schedule than the Terrapins; despite both teams being in tough conferences, the Big Twelve is wall-to-wall killers while there are a few refuges to take in the Big Ten (Maryland managed to play Minnesota three times). Both teams are pretty inconsistent, ranking in the 300s in that measure, so I guess it's a "close game" that could be a blowout win either direction. West Virginia finished a lot better than Maryland did, especially if you disregard their last game.

In SportsRatings' new MegaScreen rankings, neither team is seen as a potential Final Four contender and both even rank pretty low for Sweet Sixteen consideration.

Season overview: Maryland

• Wins vs. tournament teams (6): =(5)Miami FL+18, (9)Illinois+5, (4)Indiana+11, (10)Penn St.+6, (1)Purdue+14, (7)Northwestern+16
  
• Losses to tournament teams (7): =(4)Tennessee-3, (2)UCLA-27, @(8)Iowa-14, @(1)Purdue-3, @(7)Michigan St.-5, @(10)Penn St.-1, =(4)Indiana-10
• Other losses (5): @Wisconsin-5, @Michigan-35, @Rutgers-14, @Nebraska-OT, @Ohio St.-11

Overview: Maryland started strong but hit turbulence near the start of the Big Ten season, losing non-conference tilts to 4-seed Tennessee and 2-seed UCLA, and hitting bottom with an 81-46 loss at Michigan. They recovered pretty well, finishing 9-5 over their last 14 games but 3 of their last six wins were over conference doormat Minnesota.

Jahmir Young leads four starters in double figures with 16.1 ppg.

             **************************************************************

Season overview: West Virginia

• Wins vs. tournament teams (6): @(11)Pittsburgh+25, (6)TCU+9, (9)Auburn+3, (6)Iowa St.+5, @(6)Iowa St.+3, (3)Kansas St.+8
  
• Losses to tournament teams (11): =(1)Purdue-12, @(3)Xavier-10, @(3)Kansas St.-OT, (1)Kansas-14, (3)Baylor-5, (2)Texas-8, @(6)TCU-4, @(2)Texas-34, @(3)Baylor-12, @(1)Kansas-2, =(1)Kansas-17
• Other losses (3): @Oklahoma St.-7, @Oklahoma-1, Texas Tech-6

Overview: West Virginia lost to 11 tournament teams, defeated an amazing 10 times by top-3 seeds. They only beat a top 3 seed once, when they beat Kansas State. Their three non-tournament team losses were to good teams, too, the Oklahomas and Texas Tech. They suffered an early 5-game skid in conference play but finished with three strong wins before losing big to Kansas in the conference tournament, their third loss to the 1-seed Jayhawks this season.

The Mountaineers have four scorers in double figures led by Erik Stevenson who averages 15.5 ppg.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: For an 8-9 matchup you look at which team is doing well, but not many teams finish strong in the Big Twelve or Big Ten and these two are no exception. 9-seeds actually have a slim edge in what is considered a tossup seed matchup.

It doesn't help that both teams are pretty unpredictable, too. Both have had their slumps during the season and recovered. Both are led by four starters in double figures with a key guard who scores over 15 points. Both teams are pretty well-rounded offensively and defensively, with each offense having an approximately even advantage over the other team's defense. 

Vegas Line:

West Virginia by   2

Power rating: spread

West Virginia by   1.6

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Maryland:        48.4% 
West Virginia:   51.6% 

Vegas and the Strength power rating agree almost to a "T" that the Mountaineers are a very slim favorite. And their 51.6% chance to win by the Game-Comparisons method matches almost exactly the 51.4% chance that 9-seeds have to beat 8-seeds.

Bottom line: It's hard to get too caught up in the game as the winner faces Alabama and neither team looks up to that task.

Final prediction: West Virginia 72, Maryland 70

More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.

Oklahoma State, Pittsburgh will reveal most about the Committee's workings

Two days of action before (and on) Selection Sunday.

Rank Team                      Rec    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(Mar 9)
  1. Kansas                   27-6    B12   100.0    0.0    1    1
  2. Alabama                  27-5    SEC   100.0    0.0    1    1
  3. Purdue                   27-5    B10   100.0    0.0    1    1
  4. Texas                    25-8    B12   100.0    0.0    1    1
  5. UCLA                     29-4    P12   100.0    0.0    2    2
  6. Houston                  30-2    Amer  100.0    0.0    2    2
  7. Gonzaga                  28-5    WCC   100.0    0.0    2    2
  8. Kansas St.               23-9    B12   100.0    0.0    2    2

Texas is looking stronger and stronger and if they beat Kansas today, they will lock up a 1-seed—in the Dance Chance, at least. Other bracketologists are not convinced, and most have Houston a solid 1-seed. Here, UCLA nudges past the Cougars and will get the final 1-seed if Texas falters. Given that UCLA was #8 in the Committee's Top 16 "preview" the Bruins might be left a 2-seed even as Pac-12 champs.

Rank Team                      Rec    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(Mar 9)
  9. Baylor                   22-10   B12   100.0    0.0    3    3
 10. Tennessee                23-10   SEC   100.0    0.0    3    3
 11. Arizona                  27-6    P12   100.0   +0.0    3    4
 12. Indiana                  22-10   B10   100.0   +0.0    3    4
 13. Connecticut              25-8    BE    100.0    0.0    4    3
 14. Marquette                27-6    BE    100.0   +0.0    4    4
 15. TCU                      21-12   B12   100.0   +0.0    4    4
 16. Iowa St.                 19-13   B12   100.0    0.0    4    3
 17. Virginia                 25-6    ACC   100.0   +0.0    5    5
 18. Xavier                   25-8    BE     99.9    0.0    5    5
 19. Duke                     25-8    ACC    99.9    0.0    5    5
 20. San Diego St.            26-6    MWC    99.9   +2.8    5    7

Arizona moves up but the Dance Chance might not have them any higher than a 3-seed even if they beat UCLA. Marquette's win over UConn almost put them ahead of the Huskies, but they'll need to beat Xavier to finally become our top Big East team.

TCU and Iowa State both lost and fell a few rungs but stayed 4-seeds. Realistically there won't be six Big Twelve teams in the top 4 seeds so both should be considered 5-seeds. Virginia can move into a 4-seed by beating Duke. San Diego State, a pre-season 1-seed in our rankings, has their best seeding in quite a while as they head into the Mountain West conference tournament final against Utah State.

Rank Team                      Rec    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(Mar 9)
 41. Oklahoma St.             18-15   B12    63.6   -1.3   11   10
 42. N.C. State               23-10   ACC    61.5   +3.1   11   11
 43. Oral Roberts             30-4    Sum    59.4   -1.2   11   11
 44. USC                      22-10   P12    57.3   +1.0   11p  11p
 45. Nevada                   22-10   MWC    55.2   +3.0   11p  12p
 46. Providence               21-11   BE     53.1   +2.9   12p  12p
 47. Mississippi St.          21-12   SEC    50.9   -3.3   12p  11p
 48. North Carolina           20-13   ACC    48.8   +3.3       
 49. Wisconsin                17-14   B10    46.7   +3.3       
 50. Michigan                 17-15   B10    44.6   -5.2       
 51. New Mexico               22-11   MWC    42.5   +3.4       
 52. Oregon                   19-14   P12    40.4   -0.8       
 53. Clemson                  23-10   ACC    38.3   -9.4       
 54. Pittsburgh               22-11   ACC    36.2   -0.8       
 55. Charleston               31-3    CAA    34.0   +1.4   12   12
 56. Arizona St.              22-12   P12    31.9   -2.8       
 57. UAB                      25-8    CUSA   29.8   +5.8       

Here's where it gets murky. The bubble looked a lot cleaner yesterday but the Last Four In contains some questionable teams, as Mississippi State stayed in despite their loss, and Nevada and Providence are on shaky ground too. Oklahoma State is pretty firmly in by our estimates but at 18-15 they're not regarded well by other Bracketologists who put them in the First Four Out.

Speaking of the First Four Out, North Carolina has nudged to the top of that list as Clemson and Arizona State's threats diminished will tournament losses. And Michigan's threat diminished with an algorithm nudge, let's be honest. Teams with "tight" records like 17-15 or 18-15 need to be accounted for as there is clearly a Committee bias against such teams, regardless of profile. 

But UNC remains well ahead of Pittsburgh, another team that many have in the Last Four In. The Panthers aren't even in the First Four Out here, so it will be interesting to see what the Committee does. When it comes down to the eight teams that cluster around the dividing line, it's no sin to miss a team here and there. But if the Committee puts Pitt in and keeps Oklahoma State out, it's definitely a bias our algorithm doesn't account for. Pitt's best argument over Oklahoma State is overall record and in-conference finish. Viewed against North Carolina, Pitt they has two bad losses while UNC has none, but they did much better in the ACC and beat the Tar Heels twice—something our formula doesn't consider but the Committee would definitely look at if choosing one or the other to make the Dance. 

Rank Team                      Rec    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(Mar 9)
 64. Vanderbilt               20-13   SEC    15.0   +1.8       
 ...
 74. Ohio St.                 16-18   B10     0.2   -0.1       

And finally, here are the Cinderellas of the conference tournament season. Vanderbilt has a decent overall record and a 15% chance of making the tournament, while Ohio State's odds haven't budged at all despite their Big Ten run. Their 16-18 record is the reason, as they can't even finish .500 without winning the tournament in which case the at-large bid becomes moot.

Vandy would be 21-14 if they beat Texas A&M and lose in the SEC final; that probably won't be enough to make the tournament, or even have a really good chance. Their tournament so far has consisted of beating woeful LSU and upsetting Kentucky, so it's not really amazing just yet. But the finish to their season has been remarkable, with 10 wins and only one loss (to woeful LSU). It looks like Vandy will be in the NIT, while for Ohio State it's NCAA or bust (though bust could mean the CBI I guess)