SportsRatings: College Basketball

To whom it may concern: All three 11-seeds won yesterday

I've been harping on the fact that 11-seeds are great picks forever now, and I take them all the time. Well not all the time because this round I only took 2 of the 3 yesterday, but I should have taken all 4 because ALL THREE 11-SEEDS WON in the first round!

11-seed NC State? Beat 6-seed Texas Tech 80-67.

11-seed Oregon? Beat 6-seed South Carolina 87-73.

11-seed Duquesne beat 6-seed BYU 71-67.

There's one more 6- vs 11- left, Clemson vs. New Mexico. But even if Clemson wins that one, it's 3 of 4 for the 11-seed.

Since 2011, 11-seeds are an amazing 26 of 51. They've topped 50% now in that time frame. Even if New Mexico loses, that's exactly 50%. For what should be a pretty good victory clip for the 6-seed, you would think!

Before 2011 (that is, from 1985 to 2010) 11-seeds were a pedestrian 35 of 104, or just 33.7%.

What changed? I'm not sure but the tournament expanded to 68 teams from 64 in 2011, causing a shift in what an 11-seed is. It should have perhaps diluted the 11-seed spot, as more teams were just added to the bottom, and had to play-in. Play-in teams have had solid success, but 11-seeds overall do better than just 11-seed play-in teams, so it's not just a phenomenon of "getting winning momentum" off the bat.

Not many people are noticing how good the 11-seeds are because the full stats from 1985 (as of last year) still show a 38.2% win percentage for 11-seeds, which looks decent but not alarming. 50% looks alarming!

Now, in back to back years, three 11-seeds have won, with a game remaining, making the "all-time" odds for a 6-seed 60.9% . All three 7-seeds beat 10-seeds yesterday, so those odds (from 1985-2024) are now 61.7%. No matter what happens tomorrow, the odds of a 6-seed winning in the first round are now LOWER than the odds of a 7-seed winning.

That's never happened before (outside of the tossup 8 vs. 9 spot). Imagine the odds of a 3-seed winning their opening game being better than the odds of a 2-seed.

This is going to wake people up. When they see the '85-'24 stats next year when doing their brackets, they'll see the weirdness of the bottom line number NOT increasing as you do down the seeds. Finally, they will note the power of the 11-seed.

But they might not know it's really a 50/50 game. It will still show the 6-seed as a 61% favorite. But you will know. You will know.

Quick pick: Ohio State vs. St. John's in the NIT finals

This year the NIT almost looks more exciting to me than the NCAA tournament, given all the cool teams that got left out of the Big Dance.

Cases in point: the two hottest teams in the country, both spurred by coaching decisions

• Ohio State, who came to life with new coach Jake Diebler, going on a 6-2 run that included a win over 1-seed Purdue
• St. John's, who came to life after Rick Pitino gave them a tongue lashing, winning six in a row before falling to 1-seed UConn

Seriously, the Red Storm needed to beat the overall top seed to get a bid? How stupid is that. The Committee needs to explicitly take recent play into account and add teams like these two, I was hoping at least one of them might make it but nope, can't have a fun tournament. And no, that doesn't mean I favor some ridiculous expansion scheme that will destroy the tournament.

Both teams are on an incredible tear (playing top 10 basketball lately), and both should still be motivated for the NIT despite not making the NCAA, since there was a time that both teams considered their NCAA odds to be zero (after St. John's lost 8 of 10 and their coach ranted at them, and after Ohio State lost 9 of 11 and their coach got fired).

Can't see them play in the Big Dance but you can follow them in the NIT.

UPDATE: St. John's refused the bid. We can't have any fun, can we? I guess I take the Buckeyes to win it.

Is UConn 2024 = Florida 2007? And what about Iowa State's win over Houston?

People have been making the comparison between UConn of 2024 and Florida 2007, saying the Huskies have the best chance to repeat since that Florida team. Well, that's true by definition, since no team has repeated since Florida of 2007 and UConn has a chance to. But is that the correct team to compare them to?

And what of Iowa State's 28-point blowout of #1 Houston? The comparison made there has been UCLA's 32-point blowout of #1 Houston in 1968. Is that what we should be referencing, a game from 56 years ago?

UConn 2024 = Florida 2007 or Villanova 2017?

Starting with the Huskies, who just rose to #1 on KenPom, let's look at not just 2007 Florida but all the teams since then who tried to repeat and whether some of them might be more applicable.

Year Team       Rec   Seed     Kenpom   NCAA finish
2007 Florida    29-5  1-seed*  #3	won NCAA
2011 Duke       30-4  1-seed   #2	Sweet 16
2014 Louisville 29-5  4-seed   #1	Sweet 16
2017 Villanova  31-3  1-seed*  #2	Round of 32
2022 Baylor     26-6  1-seed   #4	Round of 32
2023 Kansas     27-7  1-seed   #9	Round of 32
2024 UConn      31-3, 1-seed*  #1	???

Since Florida of 2007, 4 defending champs have nabbed a 1-seed, putting them in an elite group trying to repeat. We also include 2014 Louisville because they were #1 on Kenpom, even though they only got a crazy 4-seed.

The comparison to Florida is pretty well-deserved, as the Gators were the overall 1-seed (we're assuming that's the case with UConn). They were only #3 on KenPom. They had all five starters back, though, as we've pointed out in a prior article.

This is why we think the better comparison is with 2017 Villanova. Also the overall 1-seed, they even share UConn's 31-3 record and Big East tournament win. They returned 3 starters (UConn returns 2), and improved on the previous year's record. They looked set to repeat! But they lost in the Round of 32.

Recent years haven't been kind to 1-seed defending champs, and none since Florida has made it past the Sweet Sixteen. Will UConn break the streak?

Houston 2024 = Houston 1968 or St. Joe's 2004?

Now Houston. And Iowa State.

I don't think you have equate Houston 2024 to Houston 1968. Or Houston 1983, or any other Houston team except the recent Cougars.

And Iowa State certainly isn't UCLA with Lew Alcindor.

The game that comes to mind for me is Xavier beating St. Joe's 87-67, when St. Joe's was #1 and undefeated. It was the most lopsided win by an unranked team over a #1 team ever, and it was much worse than the final score. Xavier led by 37 points at one time. It was the kind of beatdown that causes a reckoning, the kind people are saying Houston needs after such an extreme loss. 

So what happened to St. Joe's in the NCAA tournament? And Xavier?

1-seed St. Joe's had a decent run, getting to the Elite Eight before losing by two to Oklahoma State.

Xavier also had a good run as a 7-seed, beating 10-seed Louisville, 2-seed Mississippi State, and 3-seed Texas before falling to 1-seed Duke in the Elite Eight.

So that's not such a bad outcome—for either team. Unless getting to the Final Four and/or winning it all is your do-or-die goal, in which case the Elite Eight is probably a disappointment. Houston would probably see the Elite Eight as moderately disappointing after this season, while Iowa State fans would be pretty happy—but might want more now.

Who is the overall top seed? Houston no longer a shoo-in

In addition to the debate over who deserves the fourth 1-seed, we now need to have a talk about the overall top seed.

According to the Dance Chance, Houston was pulling away from Purdue and UConn, who were essentially tied for 2nd place.

Then Purdue lost, taking themselves out of the mix.

Then Houston lost—and not just lost, but lost by 27 points.

With UConn's win over Marquette, do they pass Houston?

In real life (i.e. the Committee), UConn probably takes it. In our Dance Chance formula, it gets really close but Houston still gets the nod. Purdue will be #3 on the S-curve in both situations.

 

Does Temple's win shrink the bubble? Not if FAU is left out

No one is addressing the possibility that Florida Atlantic might miss the tournament after losing to Temple. Yes, we know that the consensus says FAU is in the tournament, but they might be closer to the cut line than people think, and they just added a loss to a 16-19 team.

Last year's FAU was 31-3 and got a 9-seed. This year's team is 25-8. Can a team take 5 extra losses and still get an 11-seed?

Probably a team can, if they got to the Final Four the previous year. If not for that, I don't think they make it.

So the bubble probably does shrink, and FAU might get the same 9-seed at 25-8 that they got at 31-3, but I think they might get a 10- or 11-seed—maybe even have to play-in.

But according to the Dance Chance, the Owls aren't going to make it.

We're disagreeing a lot more this year with the consensus than ever before...which makes me think the Committee is also going to conflict with the consensus a lot. The bubble is extremely hard to pick this year. There are going to be some surprises!

Coming up tonight: the real bubble-buster games: Oregon vs. Colorado, and NC State vs. UNC. Colorado and UNC are in for sure—I think!—so wins by the Ducks and the Wolfpack would make the already-shrinking bubble even smaller.

Final 1-seed: UNC or Tennessee? What about Iowa State?

Two days of basketball left before the seedings are announced, and the 1-seeds have been 75% settled for a while. 

But that last one, wow.

Tennessee lost to Mississippi State yesterday, putting North Carolina in the driver's seat for the last 1-pick.

Right?

                                                 3/14   3/10          Seed  Seed  Seed
Rank Team                   Conf  Rec    %Odds   %Chg   %Chg  1-seed  3/15  3/14  3/10
  1. Houston                B12   30-3   100.0    0.0    0.0   99.6    1     1     1  
  2. Purdue                 B10   29-3   100.0    0.0    0.0   98.7    1     1     1  
  3. Connecticut            BE    30-3   100.0    0.0    0.0   95.6    1     1     1  
  4. Iowa St.               B12   26-7   100.0    0.0    0.0   35.5    1     2     2  
  5. North Carolina         ACC   27-6   100.0    0.0    0.0   34.5    2     2     2  
  6. Tennessee              SEC   24-8   100.0    0.0    0.0   31.1    2     1     1  
  7. Auburn                 SEC   25-7   100.0    0.0    0.0    3.0    2     3     3  
  8. Arizona                P12   25-8   100.0    0.0    0.0    1.8    2     2     2  
  9. Marquette              BE    25-8   100.0    0.0    0.0    0.4    3     3     3  

Dance Chance for games through 3/15/2024

Our latest Dance Chance does put North Carolina ahead of Tennessee...but Iowa State jumps over the Tar Heels. North Carolina's 72-65 win over Pitt just didn't give them as much of a boost as the Cyclones' 76-62 win over Baylor, who was a 2-seed just yesterday.

Now, in addition to the almost-certain trio at the top, Iowa State, North Carolina, and Tennessee are in a near 3-way tie for the last 1-seed. It looks like Iowa State will get the last 1-seed if they beat Houston. Otherwise, North Carolina takes it with an ACC title win over North Carolina State. If both fail, it goes to Tennessee.

At least, that's what will happen according to the Dance Chance, which really seems to like Big Twelve teams. The Strength of Schedule of that league is something else, and it's reflected in Iowa State's ranking. Now, as to whether the Selection Committee will see things the same, we don't know. If North Carolina wins the ACC, they probably get the 1-seed in reality. Iowa State probably needs the Tar Heels to slip up.

Does anyone else have a shot? We show Auburn having a ghost of a chance, and if they win the SEC they'll be in the discussion but that's probably about it; most Bracketologists still have the Tigers as a 4-seed. Marquette winning the Big East might register a bit, but they probably won't get too far past Arizona, who had a clear path to a 1-seed before they lost 2 of their last 3.

UPDATE: With Iowa State's incredibly dominant win over Houston, the Cyclones are pretty much a certain Dance Chance #1-seed. Whether the Committee follows our sage advice is another matter entirely :)

The Bubble on 3/15/2024: After Dayton loss, too many teams chasing too few spots

Here's the bubble on the morning of Friday, March 15, 2024, as seen by the Dance Chance:

                                                 3/13   3/10          Seed  Seed  Seed
Rank Team                   Conf  Rec    %Odds   %Chg   %Chg  1-seed  3/14  3/13  3/10
 37. Pittsburgh             ACC   22-10   65.9   +5.4   +4.0    --    10    12p   11p 
 38. Dayton                 A10   24-7    65.9  -13.8  -14.3    --    10     9     9  
 39. Northwestern           B10   21-10   65.4   -2.9   -5.3    --    10    10    10  
 40. Virginia               ACC   23-9    61.7   +0.9   -2.3    --    10    11p   11  

Does everyone really think Pittsburgh isn't in the field after beating Wake? They look like a solid 10-seed right now, and probably can survive a loss to North Carolina in today's game. But thank Dayton for the compression in percentage odds we see here. The Flyers' loss to Duquesne didn't kick them out of the field but it shrank the bubble by one key slot. Now even Northwestern and Virginia have to sweat losing today, though the Wildcats are probably ok if they fall to Wisconsin, and the Cavaliers caught a break—they face N.C. State instead of Duke (that's two breaks, if you count surviving Boston College in overtime).

                                                 3/13   3/10          Seed  Seed  Seed
Rank Team                   Conf  Rec    %Odds   %Chg   %Chg  1-seed  3/14  3/13  3/10
 41. Ohio St.               B10   20-12   60.8   +6.2   +2.7    --    11    12p   12p 
 42. Florida Atlantic       Amer  24-7    59.4   -7.5  -11.0    --    11    10    10  
 43. Oklahoma               B12   20-12   58.1   -4.8   -9.8    --    11p   11    10  
 44. Seton Hall             BE    20-12   56.2   -5.7   -6.5    --    11p   11    11p 
 45. St. John's             BE    20-12   55.9  +10.7   +7.9    --    11p             
 46. Indiana St.            MVC   28-6    55.8   -9.0   -9.6    --    11p   11    11  

This is crunch time at the bubble, and every team is an 11-seed now, and the waterline is at #46 in the S-curve. Ohio State beat Iowa and rose to the top 11-seed, though other Bracketologists are loathe to put the Buckeyes in the field. They also play Illinois today and that might seal their fate one way or another. Florida Atlantic didn't even play and dropped to an 11-seed as other teams gained wins that helped them pass the Owls, something that also happened to Indiana State, who is suddenly in a lot of trouble! Mid-majors don't benefit a lot from their wins, so the Owls had better win the American, and the Sycamores just have to pray. It seems that Toledo's loss in the MAC tournament hurt them, as that was one of their better neutral-court wins. They looked fine after losing to Drake, but now they're right on the cusp.

Ironically Oklahoma looks to be in decent shape just because they can't lose any more games. Unlike St. John's who has to face UConn and doesn't have a lot of room to spare. Another irony—the Red Storm just beat Seton Hall who may hold on to their spot. Sometimes the Committee looks at situations like this and makes a call, though, when something like losing to a 1-seed hurts your NET—or RPI back in the day (though just playing a 1-seed often helped your RPI, so that was the one situation where RPI was a "better" tool!)

                                                 3/13   3/10          Seed  Seed  Seed
Rank Team                   Conf  Rec    %Odds   %Chg   %Chg  1-seed  3/14  3/13  3/10
 47. Mississippi St.        SEC   20-12   54.6   +7.2   +3.7    --                12p 
 48. Wake Forest            ACC   20-13   53.3  -16.5   -9.8    --          10    11  
 49. Michigan St.           B10   19-13   50.6  +12.9  +11.4    --                    
 50. Providence             BE    21-12   50.3  +12.3  +16.2    --                    
 51. Princeton              Ivy   24-3    50.2   -0.8   -3.8    --    12    12    12  
 52. Texas A&M              SEC   19-13   48.7   +7.2   +4.7    --                    
 53. Cincinnati             B12   20-14   46.2  -14.7  +14.1    --          11p       

Just beneath the waterline we see a large number of teams showing >50% odds, which shouldn't be the case. But the early days of the Major conference tournaments see this situation: bubble teams get a lot of wins—bumping up their odds—and then the hangover comes the day after when most of them lose the next game, deflating their odds. We're in the inflation stage now, and that fact—plus the bubble shrinking—puts a lot of underwater teams above 50% at the moment. The odds for the teams that didn't make it here are extra-low, as we'll see in a bit.

In any case, Mississippi State has been just below or at the waterline all this week, and beating LSU wasn't enough to put them back in (thanks to Dayton). Now they have to beat Tennessee if they want in, or get grace from the Committee which could happen according to the consensus. Wake Forest doesn't have the consensus on its side, however. A few days ago we projected that they could survive a loss to Pitt but that might not be the case any more.

Michigan State boosted their odds above 50% with the win at Minnesota, but they're still in the First Four Out in the Dance Chance. According to everyone else, it seems, the win sealed their bid. We aren't sure they don't need to beat Purdue, but I guess 19-14 is good enough if you're the Spartans. Providence is also slightly above 50% after upsetting Creighton, but now they have to face Marquette and unlike Michigan State the consensus isn't on the Friars' side. 

All of this winning by Major conference bubble teams has pushed Princeton down a few notches, but we established a while ago that if they lose at any time in the Ivy tournament their odds get cut in half basically. Probably more, now that the bubble shrank.

Texas A&M beat Mississippi again and it helped a bit, but losing to Kentucky would put them right back where they were. This is what happened to Cincinnati, who jumped 28% with wins over West Virginia and (mainly) Kansas, but whose loss to Baylor knocked them out of the Last Four In. Again, a few days ago it looked like they'd survive the loss, but luck wasn't on their side (and they were always at a disadvantage trying to be the 10th Big Twelve team).

                                                 3/13   3/10          Seed  Seed  Seed
Rank Team                   Conf  Rec    %Odds   %Chg   %Chg  1-seed  3/14  3/13  3/10
 54. James Madison          SB    31-3    39.1   -4.5   -2.5    --    12    12    12  
 55. Grand Canyon           WAC   27-4    28.2   -2.8   -9.8    --    12    12    12  
 56. Utah                   P12   19-14   28.0  -16.6   +1.4    --                    
 57. Oregon                 P12   21-11   27.2   -0.4   -3.8    --                    
 58. McNeese St.            Slnd  30-3    26.7   -2.3   -1.3    --    12    13    13  
 59. Syracuse               ACC   20-12   21.5   +1.7  -12.0    --                    
 60. Villanova              BE    18-15   21.3   -9.5   -8.6    --                    
 61. Kansas St.             B12   19-14   20.4  -15.3    0.0    --                    
 62. N.C. State             ACC   20-14   17.6  +17.6  +17.6    --                    
 63. Samford                SC    29-5    13.7   -4.9   -3.5    --    13    13    13  

There are a lot of conference leaders here, and three of them—James Madison, McNeese State, and Samford—have sealed their auto-bid. Grand Canyon starts their WAC bid today. Even getting to their tournament finals and losing shrinks their odds, so they need to win it.

The Pac-12's hopes for a 4th team are here too, so in other words the Pac-12 is looking like a 3-bid conference. Utah's hopes were crushed pretty bad by Colorado, who wanted to make sure the conference even had a 3rd team. Oregon is still alive after beating UCLA 68-66, which impressed the Dance Chance to the tune of losing 0.4%. It appears that even beating Arizona today wouldn't put the Ducks in the field; they need to win the whole shebang.

The ACC has a few teams here. Syracuse lost to NC State in their first AC tourney game and dropped to around the 20% level, leaving them some small hope; meanwhile the team that beat them was still sitting at <0.1—until they upset Duke yesterday, which put them on the map. I didn't even cover the Wolfpack in the Bubble Odds report since they weren't on the radar. But now they are, so here goes: lose to Virginia and their odds drop under 10%. Beat Virginia and lose to UNC: odds remain around 20%. Beat North Carolina, they get the auto-bid. So it's pretty much all or nothing when you come out of nowhere.

Kansas State tried to come out of nowhere a few weeks ago, starting with an upset of Iowa State. Then they beat Texas in the first round of the Big Twelve tournament and went from 20% odds to 35%. But a loss to Iowa State knocked them right back down to 20%.

Villanova almost got sent straight to zero percent against 3-28 DePaul but they won by a point; then they battled Creighton nobly but fell by two points. That's quite a range the Wildcats have, to play both those teams so tight.

                                                 3/13   3/10          Seed  Seed  Seed
Rank Team                   Conf  Rec    %Odds   %Chg   %Chg  1-seed  3/14  3/13  3/10
 64. Virginia Tech          ACC   18-14   12.0   -1.8  -13.8    --                    
 65. Iowa                   B10   18-14   10.0  -13.6  -17.1    --                    
 66. Bradley                MVC   22-11    7.2   -2.6   -5.3    --                    
 67. Butler                 BE    18-14    6.4   -0.5  -19.5    --                    
 68. Memphis                Amer  22-10    4.9  -13.5  -19.8    --                    
 69. Richmond               A10   23-9     2.7   -8.3  -11.0    --                    
 70. Appalachian St.        SB    27-6     2.3   -3.8   -5.3    --                    
 71. Mississippi            SEC   20-12    1.8   -3.5   -5.3    --                    
 72. UC Irvine              BW    24-8     0.1   -2.7   -5.2    --    13    13    13  
 73. UNLV                   MWC   19-12   <0.1  -10.4  -13.6    --                    

This is pretty much the graveyard of the bubble. Every team here had their odds decrease, either from losing, or the bubble shrinking, or from teams above winning and "sopping up" the odds from the lower rungs. Virginia Tech's drop occurred on Wednesday with a loss to Florida State, while Iowa had a make or break date with Ohio State yesterday that went sour for the Hawkeyes. Bradley lost a week ago in the Missouri Valley tournament and yet they're still sliding. Same with Butler, who lost on Wednesday to Xavier.

Memphis was upset by Wichita State yesterday which pretty much ended their hopes. And Richmond would have been the Atlantic 10's heir apparent after Dayton's loss, but they lost to St. Joe's, which left the Spiders an extremely long shot for a bid. They're barely ahead of Appalachian State, who still shows a few percentage points of hope as an at-large from the Sun Belt. At 27-6, they deserve a glance at least!

Mississippi's hopes all but evaporated with another loss to Texas A&M. UC Irvine is the last team that shows measurable odds, but if they lose in the Big West tournament that goes to 0.0.

Finally there's UNLV, who had a heck of a run all February trying to become the 7th(!) team from the Mountain West in the tournament. They were 10-1 in that stretch before losing to Nevada, and they took San Diego State into overtime in the conference tournament before losing. That basically ends their hope for an NCAA bid but no one is going to want to face the Rebels in the NIT.

pre-Championship week 2024: A 1-seed up for grabs; plus Big Ten, Missouri Valley bubble drama

Well the regular season is over and we have a few surprises in the Dance Chance going into major conference tournament week. Get this: right now Michigan State is out—but Ohio State is in! And both Drake and Indiana State are in—for now. And the final 1-seed is up for grabs. Let's start there, using the Dance Chance through games of Sunday, March 10:

                                                 3day   7day          Seed  Seed
Rank Team                   Conf  Rec    %Odds   %Chg   %Chg  1-seed  3/10  3/03
  1. Houston                B12   28-3   100.0    0.0    0.0   97.7    1     1  
  2. Purdue                 B10   28-3   100.0    0.0    0.0   98.6    1     1  
  3. Connecticut            BE    28-3   100.0    0.0    0.0   84.7    1     1  
  4. Tennessee              SEC   24-7   100.0    0.0    0.0   60.4    1     1  
  5. North Carolina         ACC   25-6   100.0    0.0    0.0   20.3    2     2  
  6. Iowa St.               B12   24-7   100.0    0.0    0.0   17.4    2     2  
  7. Arizona                P12   24-7   100.0    0.0    0.0   19.8    2     2  
  8. Creighton              BE    23-8   100.0    0.0    0.0    0.6    2     3  
  9. Kansas                 B12   22-9   100.0    0.0    0.0    0.2    3     2  

Very little changed here even after all the chaos among the 2-seeds. Houston and Purdue are still flip-flopping for top overall seed, with Purdue on top mid-week but Houston regaining the lead with their (very predictable) 30-point win over former 2-seed Kansas. UConn kept winning and stayed solid as a 1-seed, but Tennessee got clocked by Kentucky at home and...remained a 1-seed for now. That's because Arizona, a 1-seed just a few weeks ago, lost to USC 78-65, a much worse ding on their résumé than a 4-point loss to UK. Iowa State was waiting in the wings but they lost at Kansas State.

North Carolina did surge into the top 2-seed spot by beating Duke at Cameron Indoor, and if they win the ACC and Tennessee doesn't win the SEC, look for the Tar Heels to be the last 1-seed. ISU and Arizona are still in play if both of the above falter. Meanwhile Creighton beat Marquette by 14 and got a buzzer-beater to top Villanova, and the Jays swapped places with the Jayhawks, the only movement in the top 2 seeds; both have a very outside chance as we see it.

                                                 3day   7day          Seed  Seed
Rank Team                   Conf  Rec    %Odds   %Chg   %Chg  1-seed  3/10  3/03
 10. Auburn                 SEC   24-7   100.0    0.0    0.0   <0.1    3     4  
 11. Marquette              BE    23-8   100.0    0.0    0.0   <0.1    3     3  
 12. Baylor                 B12   22-9   100.0    0.0    0.0    0.1    3     3  
 13. Duke                   ACC   24-7   100.0    0.0    0.0    0.2    4     3  
 14. Kentucky               SEC   23-8   100.0    0.0    0.0    --     4     5  
 15. BYU                    B12   22-9   100.0    0.0    0.0    --     4     4  
 16. Alabama                SEC   21-10  100.0    0.0    0.0    --     4     4  
 17. Clemson                ACC   21-10  100.0    0.0   +0.1    --     5     5  
 18. Illinois               B10   23-8   100.0    0.0    0.0    --     5     4  

Duke dropped a seed from the 84-79 defeat, and Auburn took advantage to jump to a 3-seed after two easy wins. Marquette and Baylor hold as 3-seeds despite stumbles to Creighton and Texas Tech respectively. The only swap in the 4 vs. 5 line is Kentucky surging from their win at Tennessee and Illinois slipping from their home loss to Purdue. BYU and Alabama held as 4-seeds, though both lost early in the weeks. BYU fell at Iowa State and Alabama got crushed 105-87 at Florida, but both notched a home win to end the week. Clemson had a solid win over Syracuse that put them at the 100% mark, then lost at Wake Forest and remained a 5-seed.

                                                 3day   7day          Seed  Seed
Rank Team                   Conf  Rec    %Odds   %Chg   %Chg  1-seed  3/10  3/03
 19. Nevada                 MWC   26-6   >99.9    0.0   +3.7    --     5     6  
 20. Gonzaga                WCC   24-6   >99.9   +0.1   +0.2    --     5     5  
 21. San Diego St.          MWC   22-9    98.4   -1.5   -1.5    --     6     5  
 22. Texas Tech             B12   22-9    97.7   +9.0  +14.0    --     6     8  
 23. Utah St.               MWC   26-5    97.1   -0.5   +0.7    --     6     6  
 24. Boise St.              MWC   22-9    94.7   +4.1   -2.7    --     6     6  
 25. Nebraska               B10   22-9    92.8   +0.5   +2.1    --     7     7  
 26. New Mexico             MWC   22-9    91.9   -6.4   -1.3    --     7     7  
 27. South Carolina         SEC   25-6    88.7   -1.2   -2.2    --     7     7  
 28. Texas                  B12   20-11   88.0  +13.6   +9.0    --     7     9  
 29. Colorado St.           MWC   22-9    86.2   -3.9   -0.6    --     8     8  
 30. TCU                    B12   20-11   86.0  -13.0  -10.6    --     8     6  

We're once again in the Mountain West Zone. All six teams from the MWC are here. Whereas other bracketologists have these teams spread out—some higher, a few quite a bit lower—the Dance Chance doesn't really see much distinction between these teams, and they've rotated turns at the top of the conference. Right now it's Nevada's turn after the Wolf Pack ended the season on a 7-game streak, beating Boise State and UNLV and jumping to a 5-seed. Meanwhile San Diego State—everyone else's top MWC dog—laid an egg this week losing to both those same teams, first the Rebels then the Broncos, knocking the Aztecs to a 6-seed.

Boise State and Utah State are both 6-seeds now, after the Broncos 1-1 week and the Aggies won twice, over San Jose State and New Mexico. Speaking of the Lobos, they're the team that most people have on the bubble but here they're still a fairly solid 7-seed despite losing three of their last four games. And Colorado State made their case by winning twice this week too. The conference tournament is going to be madness!

In Big Twelve news here, new 6-seed Texas Tech had a great week, beating Oklahoma State and 3-seed Baylor. And while 7-seed Texas lost to Baylor on the road they benefitted more from beating Oklahoma and jumped 2-seeds as well. But TCU did the reverse, falling to an 8-seed after a 79-77 home loss to Central Florida.

                                                 3day   7day          Seed  Seed
Rank Team                   Conf  Rec    %Odds   %Chg   %Chg  1-seed  3/10  3/03
 31. Saint Mary's           WCC   24-7    82.8   -1.5   +2.7    --     8     9  
 32. Florida                SEC   21-10   82.2  -14.9   +2.9    --     8     9  
 33. Wisconsin              B10   19-12   80.7   -1.0   +0.1    --     9     8  
 34. Washington St.         P12   23-8    80.5   -4.5  -14.1    --     9     7  
 35. Dayton                 A10   24-6    80.2   +1.6   +1.4    --     9     9  
 36. Drake                  MVC   28-6    77.2  +19.6  +19.5    --     9    11  
 37. Colorado               P12   22-9    76.9   +6.4  +17.5    --    10    11  
 38. Northwestern           B10   21-10   70.8   +2.9   +1.9    --    10    10  
 39. Florida Atlantic       Amer  24-7    70.4   +5.7  +11.0    --    10    11  
 40. Oklahoma               B12   20-11   67.8   -2.1   -1.1    --    10    10  
 41. Indiana St.            MVC   28-6    65.4   +7.6   +5.8    --    11    10  
 42. Virginia               ACC   22-9    64.0   +4.5   +6.5    --    11    11p 
 43. Wake Forest            ACC   19-12   63.1   +9.6  -10.1    --    11    10  

Last I checked the bracketologists still have Wisconsin as a 6-seed, the top 6-seed in fact. We have the Badgers falling another line to a 9-seed as their loss to Purdue, while understandable, is their 8th in 11 outings. Yes we know they beat Marquette! 

And Washington State's surge got derailed a bit with a home loss to rival Washington, of all teams. With Colorado up to a 10-seed after closing on a 6-game win streak, it appears that the Pac-12 will have three teams after all.

And get this: right now we have both Missouri Valley champs Drake up to a 9-seed (barely) and runner-up Indiana State holding on as an 11-seed. Winning three games boosted Drake's odds +20% (though now they don't need it) and going 2-1 in the tournament ended up a plus for the Sycamores as well. It's likely both teams will "slide" a bit as other major conference teams build up tournament wins, but right now it looks good—according to the Dance Chance. We'll see what the Committee thinks in a week.

Two teams went on wild rides this week. Florida beat Alabama 105-87, sending their odds up almost 18%, but then they lost to 9-22 Vandy, 78-77, plunging their odds 15%, but leaving them up a seed for the week! Wake Forest had an even wilder ride; down almost 20% from a home loss to 14-17 Georgia Tech, the home win over Clemson recovered half of that and kept the Deacons in our seedings. Most bracketologists disagree, it seems; this is going to be a very tough year, I think, to decide who is in and who is out.

                                                 3day   7day          Seed  Seed
Rank Team                   Conf  Rec    %Odds   %Chg   %Chg  1-seed  3/10  3/03
 44. Seton Hall             BE    20-11   62.7   +6.2  +13.2    --    11p       
 45. Pittsburgh             ACC   21-10   62.0   +0.4   +7.2    --    11p   11p 
 46. Ohio St.               B10   19-12   58.1  +15.1  +16.2    --    12p       
 47. Princeton              Ivy   24-3    54.0  +11.4  +11.5    --    12    12  
 48. Mississippi St.        SEC   19-12   50.9  -17.7  -30.0    --    12p    8  
 49. St. John's             BE    19-12   48.0   +1.5   +3.9    --              
 50. Texas A&M              SEC   18-13   44.0  +20.6  +32.2    --              
 51. James Madison          SB    30-3    41.6   -0.1   +2.1    --    12    12  
 52. Michigan St.           B10   18-13   39.2  -16.5  -14.8    --          12p 
 53. Grand Canyon           WAC   27-4    38.0   +8.3   +9.5    --    12    13  
 54. Providence             BE    19-12   34.1   -1.7   +2.9    --              
 55. Syracuse               ACC   20-11   33.5   +0.3   +1.2    --              
 56. Cincinnati             B12   18-13   32.1  +13.6   +4.6    --              
 57. Oregon                 P12   20-11   31.1  +10.7   +6.4    --              
 58. Villanova              BE    17-14   29.9   -5.7  -23.8    --          12p 

Speaking of who is in and who is out, we're at the dreaded Bubble. Who is in? Seton Hall. Who is out? Villanova. The Pirates beat the Wildcats and that's the difference here. Villanova had a chance against Creighton but lost by a bucket, and now they're going to need to win at least 2 games in the Big East tournament. Seton Hall probably needs a win, too, to be any semblance of safe.

Who is in? Ohio State. Who is out? Michigan State. Really?? It can't be. But here it is, and if other bracketologists disagree, then at least we can say that the Spartans are not safe if they lose in the first round. 18-14 would not be a good look. 18-13 is bad enough after the Spartans blew it at Indiana, their 4th loss in 5 games. Meanwhile the Buckeyes are on a roll, winning 4 straight including the win at East Lansing in late February. Last week they beat Michigan by 23 and Rutgers by 22.

Who is suddenly in trouble? Mississippi State. The Bulldogs look very solid—an 8-seed just a week ago!—but they lose their 3rd and 4th in a row at Texas A&M and at home vs. South Carolina (in overtime). From an 8-seed to Last Team In? The Aggies' win wasn't enough to put them in the seedings but they're in the First Four Out, up over 30% from a week ago due to beating both Mississippi teams last week. They're right behind St. John's, who found out that beating DePaul and Georgetown doesn't but a lot of good will, not enough to get over the damn hump!

Pittsburgh closed with two wins and it's good enough for us, though skeptics abound about the Panthers' chances. Syracuse lost at Clemson as expected and didn't move much, still outside looking in. Providence had the most predictable week—beating Georgetown, losing to UConn—so they too didn't gain ground. Cincinnati's week was more volatile as the Bearcats lost to Oklahoma in overtime, but crushed West Virginia at home 92-56 which was impressive enough to recover all their deficit and then some. But like Oregon they still need a hell of a tournament run; the Ducks lost to Colorado but beat Utah, a net positive for a team hovering around 30% odds.

The auto-bids here—Princeton, James Madison, Grand Canyon—will all need to finish the job and get the auto-bid. Even Princeton, who sneaks into the seedings for the first time in a few months. The Tigers jump over 10% not because they beat Penn but because they didn't lose to Penn, which would have sent them tumbling. The Dance Chance is now a snapshot rather than a projection, so what you see is what you get.

                                                 3day   7day          Seed  Seed
Rank Team                   Conf  Rec    %Odds   %Chg   %Chg  1-seed  3/10  3/03
 59. McNeese St.            Slnd  28-3    28.0   -4.7   -3.2    --    13    12  
 60. Iowa                   B10   18-13   27.1   -7.6   -8.3    --              
 61. Utah                   P12   18-13   26.6  -11.0  -25.3    --              
 62. Butler                 BE    18-13   25.9  +11.4  +12.4    --              
 63. Virginia Tech          ACC   18-13   25.8   -3.0   +5.0    --              
 64. Memphis                Amer  22-9    24.7   +4.2   +6.3    --              
 65. Kansas St.             B12   18-13   20.4  +17.0  +12.4    --              
 66. Samford                SC    28-5    17.3  +13.1   +7.0    --    13    13  
 67. Richmond               A10   23-8    13.7   -0.7   +3.5    --              
 68. UNLV                   MWC   19-11   13.6   -0.2   +8.8    --              
 69. Bradley                MVC   22-11   12.5   +8.9   +8.0    --              
 70. Appalachian St.        SB    27-6     7.6   -4.0   -4.3    --              
 71. Mississippi            SEC   20-11    7.1  -10.1  -13.0    --              
 72. UC Irvine              BW    24-8     5.3   +5.1   +4.1    --    13    13  
 73. San Francisco          WCC   23-9     1.6   +1.6   +1.5    --              
 74. South Florida          Amer  23-6    <0.1   -0.1   -0.1    --              

The lower bubble. Some big plunges here as teams lose hope and probably need to win their tournament to get in. Utah was above 50% in the Dance Chance (they were First Team Out) but a 1-2 punch of losing at Oregon State and Oregon pretty much means they won't be the 4th (or 3rd) Pac-12 team in the Big Dance. And Mississippi has been under the waterline all year, even when they were 15-1, so now at 20-11 it's no surprise that it's all but over for the Rebels following losses to Georgia and Texas A&M, who beat them in Oxford 86-60 and is their first SEC tourney foe (bummer). Iowa was surging for a while but lost to Illinois and now faces uber-surging Ohio State in the Big Ten first round. 

Some teams, however, have renewed hope that 2-3 wins can put them on the cusp of a bid. Butler beat DePaul and Xavier, breaking a 5-game skid. They face Xavier again, and this time it's not at home, so Big East tourney wins won't come easy. And Kansas State was also left for dead until they beat Iowa State 65-58. In their case, three wins (and a loss) might be enough to get a bid as there are no easy opponents in the Big Twelve; the Wildcats face Texas first on Wednesday.

Bradley increased their stock a bit by beating Illinois-Chicago before falling to Drake, but that's all she wrote; the Braves are unlikely to get much Committee attention. But UNLV, who shares similar odds at the moment, is truly surging, winning 9 of their last 11. They face San Diego State first, then probably Utah State before the Mountain West finals. It's almost too bad they got a bye since going 2-1 in a tournament isn't going to get them an at-large in such a crowded conference; it's win it all or NIT for the Rebels.

And as usual we close with South Florida, the team that could break the Dance Chance. Their loss to Tulsa put them under 0.1% odds for an at-large, while for most they're a 50/50 proposition. There are always going to be outliers but they should not lie out this much! They have a #63 SOR (the metric everyone is talking about) not too far above their #75 Success rank (which the Dance Chance uses) and they're #78 in the NET which is lower than we show them here (#74). It's another case where getting a bye might hurt their at-large odds, though they'll trade that for having better odds of winning the tournament. They were so dominant in the ACC during the regular season they should be shooting for that anyway. Then we might have to talk about Florida Atlantic!

Does anyone want the 4th 1-seed?

Purdue, Houston, UConn. There's no doubt those teams are 1-seeds right now, and little doubt that they're very secure to stay there.

But the 4th 1-seed is still up for grabs. For some time it's been Arizona's. Then Tennessee made their move and for most—including the Dance Chance—the Vols took it over, with conference tournaments looming. Arizona was still very in play, and Iowa State was waiting in the wings, hoping a Big Twelve championship might make them a 1-seed.

Dance Chance prior to Saturday's action:

                                                 4day   7day          Seed  Seed
Rank Team                   Conf  Rec    %Odds   %Chg   %Chg  1-seed  Proj  3/03
  1. Purdue                 B10   27-3   100.0    0.0    0.0   98.3    1     1  
  2. Houston                B12   27-3   100.0    0.0    0.0   96.4    1     1  
  3. Connecticut            BE    27-3   100.0    0.0    0.0   84.3    1     1  
  4. Tennessee              SEC   24-6   100.0    0.0    0.0   60.8    1     1  
  5. Arizona                P12   24-6   100.0    0.0    0.0   35.6    2     2  
  6. Iowa St.               B12   24-6   100.0    0.0    0.0   18.8    2     2  
  7. North Carolina         ACC   24-6   100.0    0.0    0.0    4.7    2     2  
  8. Kansas                 B12   22-8   100.0    0.0    0.0    0.3    2     2  

Then today* happened.

*March 9, 2024 fyi

First, Tennessee lost at home vs. Kentucky. It was pretty ugly for a while, but the Vols closed at end to make it close, falling 85-81.

That opened the door for a surging Iowa State to move up. But it wasn't to be—the Cyclones fell at Kansas State, 65-58.

And late tonight, Arizona just needed a win over 13-17 USC to possibly reclaim their top seed.

They lost, 78-65.

What about Kansas? With a win at 1-seed Houston, the Jayhawks might be in serious 1-seed contention.

Nope. 76-46. It was ugly.

So that left North Carolina—playing at Duke—to move themselves forward. And the Tar Heels came through, winning 84-79.

Does it make them a 1-seed right now? Probably not. But with the three teams ahead of them losing, it certainly increases their odds, and if they win the ACC tournament they will probably be the favorite, though Tennessee and Arizona are still in the mix if they win the SEC and Pac-12 respectively. 

It really just made the race tighter. Instead of two main teams and a few waiting in the wings, there are three teams vying almost equally for the final 1-seed.

Bring on the conference tournaments!

1 1/2 weeks to go Bubble 2024

Let's jump right in. This is the Dance Chance through Thursday's games (3/7)

                                                 4day   7day          Seed  Seed
Rank Team                   Conf  Rec    %Odds   %Chg   %Chg  1-seed  Proj  3/03
 36. Colorado               P12   21-9    70.5  +11.1   +9.9    --     9    11  
 37. Oklahoma               B12   20-10   69.9   +1.0   -0.8    --    10    10  
 38. Mississippi St.        SEC   19-11   68.6  -12.3  -11.6    --    10     8  
 39. Northwestern           B10   20-10   67.9   -1.0   -4.1    --    10    10  
 40. Florida Atlantic       Amer  23-7    64.7   +5.3   +6.5    --    10    11  
 41. Pittsburgh             ACC   20-10   61.6   +6.8  +12.5    --    11    11p 
 42. Virginia               ACC   21-9    59.5   +2.0   -1.6    --    11    11p 
 43. Indiana St.            MVC   26-5    57.8   -1.8   -2.4    --    11    10  
 44. Drake                  MVC   25-6    57.6   -0.1   +5.1    --    11p   11  

First thing we note is Colorado is up at a 9-seed, the low 9-seed so maybe a 10, but that's a lot better than they were just a few days ago. What happened is the Buffs have won 5 in a row and just beat bubble team Oregon on the road, which puts them in good shape with Oregon State left for today (Saturday) before the Pac-12 tournament.

Oklahoma should be in, and Mississippi State will hang on despite their loss to Texas A&M which knocked them down to a 10-seed. Northwestern is in the consensus bracket too, and Florida Atlantic should hold on one way or another, though if they lose to Memphis today and exit in the first round of the American tournament we'll have to talk.

Can both Pittsburgh and Virginia make it from the ACC, or will it be a "one or the other" situation? Both are expected to win today, which is why they're both in at 11-seeds, but the ACC tournament might change things. Pitt will actually have an easier first-round opponent since Virginia probably has a double-bye.

And more interesting, can both Indiana State and Drake make it from the Missouri Valley, or will only the tournament winner get in? And if someone else like Bradley wins, do either the Sycamores or Bulldogs get an at-large? Both teams have already won a game in the MVC tournament (not reflected here) and if both win today, they'll meet in the finals tomorrow (Sunday) so we'll know a lot more soon.

                                                 4day   7day          Seed  Seed
Rank Team                   Conf  Rec    %Odds   %Chg   %Chg  1-seed  Proj  3/03
 45. Seton Hall             BE    19-11   56.5   +7.0   +2.4    --    11p       
 46. Michigan St.           B10   18-12   55.7   +1.7   -4.6    --    12p   12p 
 47. Wake Forest            ACC   18-12   53.5  -19.7  -31.7    --    12p   10  
 48. St. John's             BE    18-12   46.5   +2.4   +1.9    --              
 49. Ohio St.               B10   18-12   43.0   +1.1   +5.5    --              
 50. Princeton              Ivy   23-3    42.6   +0.1   +4.4    --    12    12  
 51. James Madison          SB    28-3    41.7   +2.2   +0.8    --    12    12  
 52. Utah                   P12   18-12   37.6  -14.3  -13.4    --              
 53. Providence             BE    19-11   35.8   +4.6   -6.8    --              
 54. Villanova              BE    17-13   35.6  -18.1   -3.1    --          12p 

The biggest thing that happened on the bubble in the first half of the week was Seton Hall beating Villanova, which put the Pirates in and kicked the Wildcats out. If Villanova can beat Creighton today they'll be right back in the thick of things heading into the Big East tournament but odds are against. And Seton Hall has to beat DePaul—a much easier task—to hold their place.

Let's talk Michigan State. Beating Northwestern saved them from starting underwater going into the Big Ten tournament, but they still have to beat Indiana today on the road. Most people assume the Spartans are safe, but I'm not sure. Lose to Indiana and lose their first B10 tourney game and they're in trouble. 

Speaking of trouble, Wake Forest did the one thing I said they had to not do: lose to Georgia Tech at home. And now they're borderline, though by the odds there is still a lot of room between the Deacons and St. John's, 53.5% to 46.5%, and if they beat Clemson today they'll regain some support. Still, they lost 20% odds from the Tech loss and 30% between that and the loss to Virginia Tech prior.

So along with St. John's it's Ohio State that's closest to a bid, though other bracketologists don't have the Buckeyes on their radar. Princeton and James Madison are the closest mid-Majors to a bid, but a loss in their tournaments probably bumps them down too much, as usual. That leaves Utah and Providence part of the "First Four Out". St. John's should beat Georgetown today, Ohio State can gain ground by beating Rutgers, Utah is on the road at Oregon, and Providence has a huge opportunity vs. 1-seed UConn, as this projection fully expects them to lose that game. A win pretty much puts them in the seedings.

                                                 4day   7day          Seed  Seed
Rank Team                   Conf  Rec    %Odds   %Chg   %Chg  1-seed  Proj  3/03
 55. Iowa                   B10   18-12   34.7   -0.7  +11.0    --              
 56. Syracuse               ACC   20-11   33.2   +0.9   +2.7    --              
 57. McNeese St.            Slnd  28-3    32.7   +1.5   +1.4    --    12    12  
 58. Grand Canyon           WAC   26-4    29.7   +1.2   +3.7    --    13    13  
 59. Virginia Tech          ACC   17-13   28.8   +8.0  +18.4    --              
 60. Texas A&M              SEC   17-13   23.4  +11.6  +18.1    --              
 61. Memphis                Amer  22-8    20.5   +2.1   +1.7    --              
 62. Oregon                 P12   19-11   20.4   -4.3   -8.3    --              
 63. Cincinnati             B12   17-13   18.5   -9.0   -7.5    --              
 64. Mississippi            SEC   20-10   17.2   -2.9   -3.1    --              

Here's where hope starts to get leaner, and the teams will need a really good conference tournament run, not just a win or two. Iowa hosts Illinois tomorrow and can make some good gains with a win. In the ACC, Syracuse is done for the year and the ACC tournament awaits while Virginia Tech can only lose ground vs. Notre Dame (who has been playing well lately). McNeese and Grand Canyon are probably too far from at-large bid range as their tournaments start, so they'll both need to win an auto-bid.

Texas A&M helped themselves a lot by beating Mississippi State the other day but they have more work to do. They play at Mississippi today and the loser is probably out for good barring a miracle SEC tournament run. Even the winner will probably need to win 2 games in the tournament, or make the finals, to get an at-large bid. What's more, A&M and Ole Miss could end up facing each other in the first round.

Oregon fell to Colorado but faces another bubble team, Utah, today and the Ducks really need a win. Cincinnati needs a win, and should get one vs. West Virginia today but their hopes rest on a great Big Twelve tournament run. Memphis does have a solid opportunity to improve their odds as they travel to Florida Atlantic, but they'd still need some more wins in the American tournament.

                                                 4day   7day          Seed  Seed
Rank Team                   Conf  Rec    %Odds   %Chg   %Chg  1-seed  Proj  3/03
 65. Butler                 BE    18-13   14.5   +1.0   +0.9    --              
 66. Richmond               A10   23-7    14.4   +4.2   +3.7    --              
 67. UNLV                   MWC   19-10   13.8   +9.0   +8.1    --              
 68. Appalachian St.        SB    26-5    11.6   -0.3   +3.7    --              
 69. Samford                SC    26-5     4.2   -6.1   -7.6    --    13    13  
 70. Bradley                MVC   21-10    3.6   -0.9   -5.5    --              
 71. Kansas St.             B12   17-13    3.4   -4.6   -8.2    --              
 72. Minnesota              B10   18-12    1.4   -8.0   -6.1    --              
 73. UC Irvine              BW    23-8     0.2   -1.0   -0.3    --    13    13  
 74. South Florida          Amer  23-5     0.1    0.0    0.0    --              

These are the no-hopers, or very-little-hopers. There are some major conference teams here that could possible get a bid by getting to the finals of their tournament. Butler could get within striking distance if they win three games, since they'll probably be the 9-seed and play in the early round of the Big East tournament. Kansas State would be in really good shape after three wins in the Big Twelve—especially if that follows a home win over 2-seed Iowa State today. And if Minnesota can beat Northwestern on the road today, then have a good Big Ten tournament run, they'll be in consideration.

But all those outcomes are pretty far-fetched. And it's worse for the mid-Majors, who have little opportunity to rack up big wins. Take Bradley in the Missouri Valley. They've won a tournament game already (not reflected here) and face Drake today. Even if they beat the Bulldogs, they aren't so close to a bid that a loss in the finals gives them much of a fighting chance at an at-large. Richmond in the Atlantic 10 is in better shape right now, but as the #1 seed in the tournament they would only add two wins to their résumé before the finals. Their best bet—maybe only one—is to win the tournament. Same with Appalachian State in the Sun Belt and Samford who is favored to win the Southern.

The two exceptions? One is UNLV in the Mountain West, which is for all intents and purposes a Major conference this year. With six teams jockeying for position in the brackets, the MWC tournament is going to be a free-for-all, and UNLV might be able to get enough quality wins to be within striking distance themselves in the end. If the Rebels can beat Nevada today, then add two more very quality wins before the tournament final, they'll be hard to ignore. But with so many other teams from the conference already "in", they're a tough sell unless another MWC team is knocked out.

And again, there's South Florida. Leading the American Athletic Conference standings by three games, the Bulls just aren't doing well by our algorithm and no one is sure what the Committee will do with them if they don't win the AAC tournament. And as the #1 seed, they wouldn't beat teams that would help them much until the finals, which they might have to win. I can only guess they're a lot closer than we show, but can't imagine they're right on the borderline either.

Selection Sunday 2004, T minus 2 weeks: Is Tennessee a 1-seed?

Here we go. The top seed has been just jockeying for position over the last, say, six weeks but down the home stretch it's getting interesting.

                                                 3day   7day          Seed  -1wk
Rank Team                   Conf  Rec    %Odds   %Chg   %Chg  1-seed  Proj  Seed
  1. Houston                B12   26-3   100.0    0.0    0.0   97.5    1     1  
  2. Purdue                 B10   26-3   100.0    0.0    0.0   96.8    1     1  
  3. Connecticut            BE    26-3   100.0    0.0    0.0   84.2    1     1  
  4. Tennessee              SEC   23-6   100.0    0.0    0.0   57.7    1     2  
  5. Arizona                P12   23-6   100.0    0.0    0.0   33.3    2     1  
  6. Iowa St.               B12   23-6   100.0    0.0    0.0   22.1    2     2  
  7. North Carolina         ACC   23-6   100.0    0.0    0.0    5.8    2     2  
  8. Kansas                 B12   21-8   100.0    0.0    0.0    0.3    2     3  

Let's say up front that we have championed Arizona as a 1-seed for a long time, well before others put the Wildcats in the top four grouping. But after Tennessee's road upset of Alabama, things have changed and the Volunteers now look like the final 1-seed. Arizona did nothing wrong! They've won 9 of their last 10 games, but in the Pac-12 that would need to be 10 of 10. Winning their conference tournament—which they are heavily expected to do—won't be enough if Tennessee wins the SEC tournament. That's a much bigger "if" though. 

Iowa State remains surprisingly strong in the 1-seed chase, too at 22%. If they win the Big Twelve tournament and Tennessee and Arizona falter, they're a great candidate—seemingly moreso than North Carolina, who lags around 6%. Another interesting development is Kansas joining the 2-seeds. We've long been showing them as a 2-seed "right now" but projecting them to falter and fall to a 3-seed—and falter they did, losing twice this week. Yet the Jayhawks now project as the low 2-seed? The answer goes back to Tennessee's surge. With the Vols on the 1-line, Kansas has now beaten three of the four 1-seeds (all but Purdue).

                                                 3day   7day          Seed  -1wk
Rank Team                   Conf  Rec    %Odds   %Chg   %Chg  1-seed  Proj  Seed
  9. Creighton              BE    22-8   100.0    0.0    0.0    0.4    3     3  
 10. Marquette              BE    22-7   100.0    0.0    0.0    1.1    3     3  
 11. Baylor                 B12   21-8   100.0    0.0   +0.3    0.2    3     4  
 12. Duke                   ACC   23-6   100.0    0.0    0.0    0.3    3     4  
 13. Alabama                SEC   20-9   100.0    0.0    0.0   <0.1    4     2  
 14. Auburn                 SEC   22-7   100.0    0.0    0.0   <0.1    4     3  
 15. BYU                    B12   21-8   100.0    0.0   +2.3    0.3    4     5  
 16. Illinois               B10   22-7   100.0   +0.5   +1.4   <0.1    4     5  
 17. Kentucky               SEC   21-8   100.0   +0.1   +0.3    --     5     5  
 18. Clemson                ACC   20-9   >99.9    0.0    0.0    --     5     4  

Creighton whipped Marquette and ranks a spot ahead of them on the 3-line but the Golden Eagles have a bigger chance at getting a 1-seed due to still playing UConn again. Neither percentage is very high, likewise for new 3-seeds Baylor and Duke. The Bears beat TCU and Kansas while the Blue Devils topped Louisville and Virginia. BYU also moved up a seed via a huge road win over Kansas, and along with Baylor, finally reached "100%" lock status.

Alabama dropped from the low 2 to the high 4-seed after the loss to Tennessee, a game they were expected to win at home. There's still a lot of movement that will happen due to the conference tournaments, and even from the few remaining games most teams have. Auburn also dropped after losing to Tennessee. The Vols really had a hell of a week!

Two other teams nabbed the "100%" lock status. Illinois beat Wisconsin on the road, while for Kentucky it was mostly the win at Mississippi State. Clemson topped Pitt but then lost to lowly (12-17) Notre Dame, dropping them to a 5-seed and keeping them just shy of "total" lock status.

                                                 3day   7day          Seed  -1wk
Rank Team                   Conf  Rec    %Odds   %Chg   %Chg  1-seed  Proj  Seed
 19. San Diego St.          MWC   22-7   >99.9    0.0   +0.1    --     5     4  
 20. Gonzaga                WCC   24-6    99.7  +14.7  +22.9    --     5     9  
 21. Boise St.              MWC   21-8    97.4   +8.1  +14.9    --     6     9  
 22. TCU                    B12   19-10   96.6   +1.5   +0.3    --     6     6  
 23. Utah St.               MWC   24-5    96.4   +1.1   -0.4    --     6     5  
 24. Nevada                 MWC   24-6    96.2   +0.4   +9.2    --     6     8  
 25. Washington St.         P12   23-7    94.6   +4.1   +4.1    --     7     7  
 26. New Mexico             MWC   21-8    93.2   -1.1   +1.1    --     7     6  
 27. South Carolina         SEC   24-5    90.9   +9.4  +14.9    --     7     9  
 28. Nebraska               B10   21-9    90.7   +7.8   +2.7    --     7     8  
 29. Colorado St.           MWC   21-9    86.8   +0.7   -7.1    --     8     6  

Now we're in the Mountain West section of the projection. From seeds 5 to 8 we show SIX (6) Mountain West teams. That's a lot. They're almost interchangeable, though other bracketologists always show one team or another (typically New Mexico) being on the bubble, and one (usually San Diego State) far above the others. We have SDSU being nudged down to a 5-seed despite winning their sole game last week; Boise State jumping three seeds after beating Air Force by 31 and New Mexico by 10; Utah State falling from a 5- to a 6-seed (they needed overtime to top Fresno State); Nevada up 2 seeds to a 6 after beating Colorado State on the road; New Mexico down to a 7-seed after the loss at Boise; and Colorado State down to an 8-seed after the home loss to Nevada. The conference tournament is going to be a blast and is completely up for grabs.

The other big news in this region is Gonzaga, who throttled St. Mary's 70-57 on the road and jumped FOUR seeds to the low 5-seed. The Bulldogs are no longer on the bubble. Their win at Kentucky keeps looking better too, as the Wildcats remain in good standing, and two of their six losses are to 1-seeds Purdue and UConn. 

                                                 3day   7day          Seed  -1wk
Rank Team                   Conf  Rec    %Odds   %Chg   %Chg  1-seed  Proj  Seed
 30. Texas Tech             B12   20-9    83.7   +4.7   -4.2    --     8     8  
 31. Mississippi St.        SEC   19-10   80.9   +0.7   -4.5    --     8     9  
 32. Wisconsin              B10   18-11   80.6   -9.0  -13.0    --     8     6  
 33. Saint Mary's           WCC   24-7    80.1  -10.2   -9.5    --     9     7  
 34. Florida                SEC   20-9    79.3   -7.8   -9.1    --     9     7  
 35. Texas                  B12   19-10   79.0   +4.6  +22.3    --     9    11p 
 36. Dayton                 A10   22-6    78.8  -10.4   -7.0    --     9     8  
 37. Wake Forest            ACC   18-11   73.2  -12.0  -18.7    --    10     7  
 38. Oklahoma               B12   19-10   68.9   -1.8   -5.6    --    10    10  
 39. Northwestern           B10   20-9    68.9   -3.1   +4.4    --    10    10  
 40. Indiana St.            MVC   26-5    59.6   -0.6   -1.1    --    10    11  
 41. Florida Atlantic       Amer  22-7    59.4   +1.2   -1.1    --    11    11  
 42. Colorado               P12   20-9    59.4   -1.2   -1.5    --    11    10  
 43. Drake                  MVC   25-6    57.7   +5.2   +5.6    --    11    12p 

And as Gonzaga rises, so does St. Mary's fall, down two seeds to the top 9-seed position. Florida also tumbles two seeds after losing at South Carolina, with whom they swapped projected seeds (7 and 9). But let's talk about Wisconsin again. They're still a 5-seed on the Bracket Project, and I just don't get it. They've lost 7 of their last 9, beating only Ohio State at their worst and Maryland, both at home. They got upset at home by Illinois on Saturday after losing at Indiana earlier in the week. We show them an 8-seed, which still seems generous, but some people are in just love with the Badgers. We get it! They beat Marquette!

Wake Forest is another team in this region falling like a stone. Two weeks ago they beat Pitt and Duke to basically seal the deal on a bid. Then last week they fell to Notre Dame and Virginia Tech. Now they're down to a 10-seed, lower than where they started. But like the other major conference teams on the 10-line (Oklahoma, Northwestern) they can probably survive a first round conference tournament loss as long as they don't do something crazy in their remaining regular season games, like lose at home to Georgia Tech Tuesday evening.

But the mid-major teams in this area have to sweat it. Dayton can probably survive a first-round loss as long as they win their two remaining games, but Indiana State and Florida Atlantic will need to win at least one game, if not reach their final, to get an at-large bid. The Sycamores are done with the regular season and start play in their tournament on Friday along with Drake who might need to reach the finals to secure an at-large bid. In truth, both might need to win the tournament, there are no guarantees for non-Major conference teams.

                                                 3day   7day          Seed  -1wk
Rank Team                   Conf  Rec    %Odds   %Chg   %Chg  1-seed  Proj  Seed
 44. Virginia               ACC   21-9    57.5   -3.6   +0.1    --    11p   11p 
 45. Pittsburgh             ACC   19-10   54.8   +5.7   -0.8    --    11p   12p 
 46. Michigan St.           B10   17-12   54.0   -6.3   -7.4    --    12p   10  
 47. Villanova              BE    17-12   53.7  +15.0  +19.8    --    12p       
 48. Utah                   P12   18-11   51.9   +0.9   +6.8    --              
 49. Seton Hall             BE    18-11   49.5   -4.6   -8.9    --          11  
 50. St. John's             BE    17-12   44.1   -0.5  +15.4    --              
 51. Princeton              Ivy   23-3    42.5   +4.3   +3.0    --    12    12  
 52. Ohio St.               B10   18-12   41.9   +4.4  +18.8    --              
 53. James Madison          SB    28-3    39.5   -1.4   -0.5    --    12    12  
 54. Iowa                   B10   18-12   35.4  +11.7  +14.0    --              
 55. Syracuse               ACC   20-10   32.3   +1.8  +14.3    --              
 56. Providence             BE    18-11   31.2  -11.4  -18.7    --              
 57. McNeese St.            Slnd  26-3    31.2   -0.1   -2.4    --    12    12  
 58. Grand Canyon           WAC   26-4    28.5   +2.5   +3.7    --    13    13  
 59. Cincinnati             B12   17-12   27.5   +1.5   +1.8    --              
 60. Oregon                 P12   19-10   24.7   -4.0   -3.3    --              

The Last Four In consists of two ACC teams (Virginia, Pittsburgh) and two 17-12 teams, Michigan State and Villanova. The Spartans are back in trouble again and time is running out for them to assert themselves as the great team they could be. You can't blame them for losing to Purdue but they shouldn't be 17-12. They have Northwestern (home) and Indiana (road) left and will be favored in both, but it's time to prove it. The Wildcats approached from the opposite side. Written off by most at 11-10, we still showed 38% odds at the time and they recently delivered by beating Providence on the road, sending their odds up around 20% and dumping the Friars a similar amount.

Utah hangs on as the First Team Out, with home wins over Stanford and Califoria not helping them much (but avoiding a big hurt). Seton Hall and St. John's are still more Big East teams on the bubble, with the Pirates falling to Creighton and UConn as most bubble teams would, while the Red Storm continued their mini-surge by winning at Butler.

And speaking of mini-surges, what about Ohio State? The Buckeyes added wins over 7-seed Nebraska and Michigan, making it a 4-1 run under interim coach Jake Diebler. Iowa, too, is on a 4-1 run after beating Penn State and 10-seed Northwestern (road). And Syracuse made it four in a row with wins over Virginia Tech and Louisville.

The four mid-Majors here are looking more and more "close but no cigar" if they fall in their conference tournaments. McNeese State has two games left, Princeton and Grand Canyon have one, while James Madison finished the regular schedule at 28-3. In order to breach the waterline they'll have to make it to their tournament finals—which if they lose, probably drops them out. But any of them will still have a shot, based on whatever the Selection Committee is thinking at the time. But none will be expected to make it without a conference tourney crown.

                                                 3day   7day          Seed  -1wk
Rank Team                   Conf  Rec    %Odds   %Chg   %Chg  1-seed  Proj  Seed
 61. Virginia Tech          ACC   16-13   20.8  +10.4   +0.3    --              
 62. Mississippi            SEC   20-9    20.1   -0.2   -4.2    --              
 63. Memphis                Amer  22-8    18.4   -0.4   +5.8    --              
 64. Butler                 BE    17-13   13.5   -0.1  -13.7    --              
 65. Appalachian St.        SB    26-5    11.9   +4.0   +5.1    --              
 66. Texas A&M              SEC   16-13   11.8   +6.5   -2.1    --              
 67. Samford                SC    26-5    10.3   -1.5  -20.8    --    13    13  
 68. Richmond               A10   22-7    10.2   -0.5   +2.3    --              
 69. Minnesota              B10   18-11    9.4   +1.9   +1.9    --              
 70. Kansas St.             B12   17-12    8.0   -3.6   -2.9    --              
 71. UNLV                   MWC   18-10    4.8   -0.9   +0.1    --              
 72. Bradley                MVC   21-10    4.5   -4.6   -2.3    --              
 73. N.C. State             ACC   17-12    1.6   -3.4   -8.7    --              
 74. UC Irvine              BW    22-8     1.2   +0.7   +0.9    --    13    13  
 75. UCF                    B12   15-13    0.6   -1.3   -0.5    --              
 76. SMU                    Amer  19-10    0.3  -22.1  -21.0    --              
 77. South Florida          Amer  22-5     0.1    0.0   -0.1    --              

And this is every last team that has a realistic chance. Virginia Tech took a big hit losing at Syracuse, but their upset of Wake Forest brought them back up to around 20% where they started. Butler took a hit and stayed down after losing at home to St. John's. Winning at DePaul didn't really help.

Samford's chances for an at-large were cut by 2/3 with the loss to Wofford. The Bulldogs are very solid favorites to win the Southern Conference tournament however.

SMU took the biggest hit of anyone, dropping from 22.4% odds just last Thursday to 0.3% odds today due to a home loss to 11-19 UTSA. Just two weeks ago the Mustangs were 19-7 and at 40.6% on the Dance Chance. They lost their "opportunity" games to Florida Atlantic and South Florida which cut their odds in half, and now they need to win the American Athletic Conference tournament to get in the Big Dance.

Speaking of South Florida, the Bulls are that team that confounds formulas (as well as Bracketologists). No one knows what the Committee will do with a team that has dominated it's solid conference (they are 15-1 with two games remaining) but does not have impressive power ratings (#94 Strength, #89 Pomeroy) or other metrics (#79 NET, #152 SOS per ESPN). The Dance Chance says they win the American tournament or they are out, even if they reach the finals and lose. We'll see what the Committee thinks if that happens. There's always "that one team"!

2 weeks to go: The Bubble

Two weeks until Selection Sunday, 2024, let's check out The Bubble in depth, in 5 groups of seven, using the Dance Chance as of 2/29/2024:

                                ||  Record    ||    Dance Chance    || Seed  2/29  2/25
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr   Proj   %Odds   %Chg  1-seed   Snap  Proj  Proj
 34. South Carolina         SEC   23-5   24-7    81.5   +5.5    --      7     9     9  
 35. Mississippi St.        SEC   19-9   20-11   80.2   -5.2    --     10     9     9  
 36. Texas Tech             B12   19-9   21-10   79.0   -8.9    --      9     9     8  
 37. Texas                  B12   18-10  20-11   74.4  +17.7    --     10    10    11p 
 38. Northwestern           B10   20-8   22-9    72.0   +7.5    --      9    10    10  
 39. Oklahoma               B12   19-9   20-11   70.7   -3.8    --     10    10    10  
 40. Virginia               ACC   21-8   22-9    61.1   +3.7    --     10    10    11p 

These teams are fairly safe. They're looking like 9 and 10 seeds right now, and unless they collapse in their last few games and lose in their Conference tournament opener, still get in. Virginia is looking a bit suspect at 61%, but they have only two games to go and are expected to go 1-1. That would only add another loss which they can likely survive.

                                ||  Record    ||    Dance Chance    || Seed  2/29  2/25
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr   Proj   %Odds   %Chg  1-seed   Snap  Proj  Proj
 41. Colorado               P12   19-9   21-10   60.6   -0.3    --     11p   11    10  
 42. Michigan St.           B10   17-11  19-12   60.3   -1.1    --           11p   10  
 43. Indiana St.            MVC   25-5   26-5    60.2   -0.5    --     11    11    11  
 44. Florida Atlantic       Amer  21-7   23-8    58.2   -2.3    --     11    11    11  
 45. Seton Hall             BE    18-10  20-11   54.1   -4.3    --     11p   11p   11  
 46. Drake                  MVC   24-6   25-6    52.5   +0.4    --     11    12p   12p 
 47. Utah                   P12   17-11  19-12   51.0   +5.9    --           12p       

This is the real Bubble, the teams that are just barely in or in a few cases, not in yet but projected to be there. Michigan State falls into that group; at 17-11 they're probably not going to make it unless they go 2-1 in their remaining three games and that includes tonight at 1-seed Purdue. Of course if they win that game, they really get a boost and their worries are likely over, but otherwise they need two wins and are still a bit precarious.

Utah is another team that needs to work their way in, and after that, they can't lost in the first round of the Pac-12 tournament. Luckily they have Cal and Oregon State next, then Oregon on the road which is their toughest. Going 3-0 puts them in a much better place than Last Team In. Their loss to Colorado last week put the Buffaloes in relatively high ground.

Indiana State and Florida Atlantic are looking more and more like they'll need to win their conferences, or at the very least get to the tournament final. The Owls will get a lot more benefit of the doubt than the Sycamores, so if Drake upsets Indiana State it's likely they replace rather than supplement them. Even though we show the Missouri Valley as having two bids (just barely) by the odds, the actual mechanism doesn't work out that way too often.

Meanwhile Seton Hall is one of several Bubble Big East teams and right now, in the best shape, mostly because they still have a gimme vs. DePaul left on their schedule.

                                ||  Record    ||    Dance Chance    || Seed  2/29  2/25
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr   Proj   %Odds   %Chg  1-seed   Snap  Proj  Proj
 48. Pittsburgh             ACC   18-10  20-11   49.1   -6.5    --     12p         12p 
 49. St. John's             BE    17-12  19-12   44.6  +15.9    --                     
 50. Providence             BE    18-10  19-12   42.6   -7.3    --     12p             
 51. James Madison          SB    27-3   28-3    40.9   +0.9    --     12    12    12  
 52. Villanova              BE    16-12  18-14   38.7   +4.8    --                     
 53. Princeton              Ivy   21-3   23-4    38.2   -1.3    --     12    12    12  
 54. Ohio St.               B10   17-12  18-13   37.5  +14.4    --                     

St. John's, Providence, and Villanova are all still very alive for a bid from the Big East. Villanova's win-loss record is an issue but they have opportunity in their final games, including one vs. Providence (which they already won today!). The Friars were "in" on Thursday but projected to drop out, and the loss to the Wildcats will hurt them. St. John's at one point lost 8 of 10 but a win over Creighton restored some luster, and now with only Georgetown and DePaul left they're likely to be 19-12 going in to the Big East tournament.

Speaking of dropping 8 of 10, Ohio State is back in the mix somehow. Instead of getting called out by their coach a la St. John's, they got a whole new coach and with it claimed a win over Purdue, which has the Buckeyes threatening to go on a solid run that might get them a bid. 

Pitt is the First Team Out here, and has three winnable games left. A few are losable, too, which is why they're at 49%.

James Madison and Princeton are the top 1-bid league leaders left as others suffered losses and fell by the wayside. The Dukes have won 10 straight (they're 28-3 after winning yesterday) and the Tigers have won 7 straight now. But that only puts them close but no cigar, they'll still very likely need to win their conference tournaments. They've put themselves close enough to still have hope in case something goes wrong, but not close enough to feel ripped off if they don't get a bid.

                                ||  Record    ||    Dance Chance    || Seed  2/29  2/25
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr   Proj   %Odds   %Chg  1-seed   Snap  Proj  Proj
 55. McNeese St.            Slnd  25-3   28-3    31.3   -2.3    --     12    12    12  
 56. Syracuse               ACC   19-10  20-11   30.5  +12.5    --                     
 57. Oregon                 P12   19-9   20-11   28.7   +0.7    --                     
 58. Grand Canyon           WAC   25-4   27-5    26.0   +1.2    --     13    13    13  
 59. Cincinnati             B12   16-12  18-13   26.0   +0.3    --                     
 60. Iowa                   B10   17-12  18-13   23.7   +2.3    --                     
 61. SMU                    Amer  19-9   22-9    22.4   +1.1    --                     

McNeese State and Grand Canyon have both been very close to the auto-bid territory before, but both were socked by losses. McNeese's last loss was a month ago but it was enough to keep them at bay. Grand Canyon was very close a few weeks ago but they lost back-to-back games that knocked the Antelopes into must-win-your-conference territory. 

Syracuse made a big move recently by beating Virginia Tech, knocking the Hokies to the next rung (see next rung). Oregon lost today to Arizona but that was fully expected; now they need to beat fellow bubble Pac-12 teams Colorado and Utah to put themselves in better shape before the conference tournament. Cincinnati has three Big Twelve games left and they aren't the worst—Kansas State, Oklahoma, West Virginia—but even 2 of 3 keeps them needing a very good Big Twelve tournament run; three of three would be much better. Same goes for Iowa, who is playing Northwestern now and needs that win and a win over Illinois to shore up their 17-12 record.

Finally SMU. The American is a mess and quite frankly, winning the tournament is the only way to guarantee a spot among all the claimants.

                                ||  Record    ||    Dance Chance    || Seed  2/29  2/25
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr   Proj   %Odds   %Chg  1-seed   Snap  Proj  Proj
 62. Mississippi            SEC   19-9   21-10   20.3   -4.0    --                     
 63. Memphis                Amer  21-8   22-9    18.8   +6.2    --                     
 64. Butler                 BE    16-13  18-13   13.6  -13.6    --                     
 65. Samford                SC    25-5   26-5    11.8  -19.3    --     13    13    13  
 66. Kansas St.             B12   17-11  18-13   11.6   +0.7    --                     
 67. Richmond               A10   21-7   23-8    10.7   +2.8    --                     
 68. Virginia Tech          ACC   15-13  17-14   10.4  -10.1    --                     

Memphis is also in the American and they are roughly in the same spot as SMU—needing to win the conference title game. But they do face Florida Atlantic in the regular season final, so that would help a lot.

Mississippi has a win over Memphis but that's one of their best, and their 19-9 record isn't looking so hot. Like nearly every team here, they need a really good conference tournament run, and that probably won't be enough for Richmond in the Atlantic 10, they'll need to win it. Virginia Tech, too, might need an auto-bid, as their remaining schedule won't impress.

Kansas State is probably the only team here who would likely seal a bid by winning their remaining regular season games, which includes Kansas and Iowa State. At 20-11, they'd be able to survive a first-round Big Twelve tournament loss. But they're more likely to go 0-3 than 3-0 so the conference tournament is still key for them.

2024 Conference Bids w/2 weeks to go: Big Twelve 9, Mountain West headed for 6

Almost exactly two weeks to Selection Sunday 2024 so let's look at conference bid totals. I'll compare the percentage odds with the number of teams currently "in" the projected seeding. Most of the time these numbers are the same but some conferences have many teams on the bubble. Of course if there are upsets in certain leagues everything can change, so we'll look at which conferences are most likely to deflate the bubble with an upset in the conference tournament. Everything here uses of course, the Dance Chance.

Projected conference totals

Conf	At-large Frac	At-large Total	Total Bids
B12	7.69	8	9
SEC	5.82	6	7
B10	4.80	5	6
MWC	4.73	5	6
ACC	4.47	4	5
BE	3.99	4	5
P12	2.35	2	3
WCC	0.91	1	2
MVC	0.62	1	2
Amer	0.42	0	1
A10	0.11	0	1
SunBelt	0.08	0	1

Twelve conferences have a shot at multiple bids, but only 9 will probably see that come true. The At-Large Fraction is the leftover "odds" once the top team is removed. 

In order, the conferences with the most bids:

Rank    Team            Conf    Rec      Proj     %Odds
  1.    Houston         B12     25-3     27-4     100.0
  6.    Iowa St.        B12     22-6     24-7     100.0
 10.    Kansas          B12     21-7     22-9     100.0
 12.    Baylor          B12     20-8     22-9     100.0
 14.    BYU             B12     20-8     22-9     100.0
 22.    TCU             B12     19-9     21-10     95.1
 36.    Texas Tech      B12     19-9     21-10     79.0
 37.    Texas           B12     18-10    20-11     74.4
 39.    Oklahoma        B12     19-9     20-11     70.7
 59.    Cincinnati      B12     16-12    18-13     26.0
 66.    Kansas St.      B12     17-11    18-13     11.6
 76.    UCF             B12     15-12    16-14      1.9

The Big Twelve (9) is set to have 9 teams in the Big Dance and currently, that's how many we show. It's a pretty strict dividing line between in (Oklahoma) and out (Cincinnati). There's still time for that to change but for the most part, the teams underwater now are going to have to hope for a very strong conference tournament run.

Rank    Team            Conf    Rec      Proj     %Odds
  5.    Tennessee       SEC     22-6     24-7     100.0
  8.    Alabama         SEC     20-8     22-9     100.0
 15.    Auburn          SEC     21-7     24-7     100.0
 17.    Kentucky        SEC     20-8     22-9     >99.9
 29.    Florida         SEC     20-8     22-9      87.1
 34.    South Carolina  SEC     23-5     24-7      81.5
 35.    Mississippi St. SEC     19-9     20-11     80.2
 62.    Mississippi     SEC     19-9     21-10     20.3
 73.    Texas A&M       SEC     15-13    16-15      5.3
 84.    LSU             SEC     15-13    17-14     <0.1
 85.    Georgia         SEC     15-13    16-15     <0.1

The SEC (7) has seven teams in, and that's how we see it going on Selection Sunday. Again, a harsh dividing line (even more harsh) separates Mississippi State (80%) and Ole Miss (20%). 

Rank    Team            Conf    Rec      Proj     %Odds
  2.    Purdue          B10     25-3     27-4     100.0
 19.    Illinois        B10     21-7     22-9      99.5
 26.    Wisconsin       B10     18-10    19-12     89.6
 33.    Nebraska        B10     20-9     21-10     82.9
 38.    Northwestern    B10     20-8     22-9      72.0
 42.    Michigan St.    B10     17-11    19-12     60.3
 54.    Ohio St.        B10     17-12    18-13     37.5
 60.    Iowa            B10     17-12    18-13     23.7
 71.    Minnesota       B10     17-11    19-12      7.5
 81.    Maryland        B10     15-14    16-15      0.1
 83.    Rutgers         B10     15-13    16-15      0.1

The Big Ten (6) has six teams in which is also their projected total, but is the first conference to have bubble teams with more than a 50% aggregate shot. Ohio State, Iowa, and Minnesota together show about a 2 in 3 chance of making it, so one of them might push forward in the next few weeks to get a bid—but overall odds say if that happens, it will likely be at the expense of someone else, likely Michigan State or Northwestern. And those teams aren't locks yet. So the Big Ten could end up with 5, or 7, but probably six.

Rank    Team            Conf    Rec      Proj     %Odds
 18.    San Diego St.   MWC     22-7     23-8      99.9
 20.    Nevada          MWC     23-6     25-7      95.8
 21.    Utah St.        MWC     23-5     26-6      95.3
 23.    New Mexico      MWC     21-7     23-8      94.3
 27.    Boise St.       MWC     20-8     22-9      89.3
 30.    Colorado St.    MWC     20-9     22-9      86.1
 72.    UNLV            MWC     17-10    18-12      5.7

Mountain West (6): Not much dithering here, they show six teams in and that's what they're going to get. It's hard to imagine the Committee cutting one of their six bids, as each team has defeated many of the others in this group. It would be an almost arbitrary decision to exclude one so that the conference "doesn't have too many bids". Of course, that's been done before: 2006's Missouri Valley got 4 bids but that "was enough" so Missouri State got sent to the NIT with a #21 RPI. It would take a similar decision to leave one of these teams out, and it might be any of them that gets the axe. The Bracket Matrix has all six in right now but some are pretty low. Watch the first week of the MWC tournament: any team that loses in the first round might be in trouble—other than San Diego State, who has special status for proving themselves "legit" last year.

Rank    Team            Conf    Rec      Proj     %Odds
  7.    North Carolina  ACC     22-6     24-7     100.0
 13.    Duke            ACC     22-6     24-7     100.0
 16.    Clemson         ACC     20-8     22-9     >99.9
 31.    Wake Forest     ACC     18-10    20-11     85.2
 40.    Virginia        ACC     21-8     22-9      61.1
 48.    Pittsburgh      ACC     18-10    20-11     49.1
 56.    Syracuse        ACC     19-10    20-11     30.5
 68.    Virginia Tech   ACC     15-13    17-14     10.4
 74.    N.C. State      ACC     17-11    18-13      5.0
 86.    Florida St.     ACC     15-13    16-15     <0.1
 92.    Miami FL        ACC     15-14    16-15     <0.1

The ACC (5) has the tightest race on the bubble, and their number of at-large teams is placed at almost exactly 4.5, but they miss by a hair and end up with 5 teams total by the odds. Right now we have Pittsburgh as the First Team Out, so the ACC could easily have six. On the other hand, Virginia is hardly a lock so that could become four just as clearly. Pitt is looking so 50/50 at the moment that we should probably say the ACC gets 5 teams and maybe Pitt. Of course that would have to take away another conference's bid, and that doesn't account for bubble shrinkage from bid stealing conference tournaments. That's why five is still the most likely number for the ACC.

Rank    Team            Conf    Rec      Proj     %Odds
  3.    Connecticut     BE      25-3     27-4     100.0
  9.    Marquette       BE      22-6     23-8     100.0
 11.    Creighton       BE      21-8     22-9     100.0
 45.    Seton Hall      BE      18-10    20-11     54.1
 49.    St. John's      BE      17-12    19-12     44.6
 50.    Providence      BE      18-10    19-12     42.6
 52.    Villanova       BE      16-12    18-14     38.7
 64.    Butler          BE      16-13    18-13     13.6
 80.    Xavier          BE      14-14    16-15      0.1

The Big East (5) is the first conference where their projected total (5) differs from what they currently show (4) in the seedings. And we can see why, as the Big East has a butt-load of teams on the bubble. Seton Hall is at 54%, and St. John's and Providence are in the First Four Out and Villanova is right there too. It's possible that all these teams make it and the Big East gets seven bids; it's also possible that they all falter and only the three "locks" (UConn, Marquette, and Creighton) go to the Dance and the NIT is filled with Big East teams. The odds show five teams making it, so after the Big Three, it's likely that two of the next four end up in the seedings. But the conference might have more than one Play-in team to go with their 1- and 3-seeds.

Rank    Team            Conf    Rec      Proj     %Odds
  4.    Arizona         P12     22-6     25-6     100.0
 24.    Washington St.  P12     22-7     24-7      90.5
 41.    Colorado        P12     19-9     21-10     60.6
 47.    Utah            P12     17-11    19-12     51.0
 57.    Oregon          P12     19-9     20-11     28.7
 77.    Washington      P12     16-13    17-14      1.2

The Pac-12 (3) is the opposite of the Big East: showing four bids right now but only expected to have three in the end. Right now Utah is the Last Team In, and if they hold on it's possible that Colorado does not. And Oregon is still alive but not favored to make it. For a while there is looked like only Arizona might represent the league, then Washington State came on strong to insure the Pac-12 wasn't a one-horse town. It looks like they'll get a third, and maybe—but not probably—a fourth. This would be a great time for a team like Washington, UCLA or USC to win the conference tournament to add another—though that would probably hurt a Pac-12 team on the bubble!

Rank    Team            Conf    Rec      Proj     %Odds
 25.    Saint Mary's    WCC     24-6     25-6      90.3
 32.    Gonzaga         WCC     23-6     23-7      85.0
 75.    San Francisco   WCC     22-8     23-8       4.4

There was a brief moment when it looked like Gonzaga wasn't going to make the tournament, and San Francisco might instead. That moment passed. Now Gonzaga is pretty firmly in along with St. Mary's, and the Dons will have to beat both in the West Coast Conference (2) tournament to join them. 

Rank    Team            Conf    Rec      Proj     %Odds
 43.    Indiana St.     MVC     25-5     26-5      60.2
 46.    Drake           MVC     24-6     25-6      52.5
 69.    Bradley         MVC     21-9     21-10      9.1

The Missouri Valley Conference (2) shows two bids now—barely—and their odds say that's likely to actually happen. But only because they have Bradley there to give the odds a nudge, so that their total at-large odds reach 62%. That's not a lot of leeway, and we wonder if either Indiana State or Drake can lose another game now and still get an at-large bid. This is one case where the aggregate odds don't tell the story very well. Whether the MVC gets one or two bids all depends on the conference tournament scenario. If they only get one bid, the ACC is "next in line" to pick it up—again, according to the odds.

Rank    Team            Conf    Rec      Proj     %Odds
 44.    Florida Atl     Amer    21-7     23-8      58.2
 61.    SMU             Amer    19-9     22-9      22.4
 63.    Memphis         Amer    21-8     22-9      18.8
 82.    South Florida   Amer    21-5     23-6       0.1

The American (1) is a 1-bid league both by the odds and by the current situation. But it's complicated. South Florida leads the conference by several games and we don't show them with a chance in hell unless they win the tournament. And SMU and Memphis show an aggregate 40%, so one of them could easily cross the threshold. But that's how it looks: either Florida Atlantic wins the conference and only they make it, or someone else does and the league gets two bids—and that's assuming FAU still gets in. I'm not sure why so many have the Owls as a 9-seed when they were a 9-seed last year with 3 losses, and this year they already have 7 (thought that Arizona win helps...!)

Rank    Team            Conf    Rec      Proj     %Odds
 28.    Dayton          A10     22-5     24-6      89.2
 67.    Richmond        A10     21-7     23-8      10.7
 78.    VCU             A10     19-9     20-11      0.5
 89.    St. Bonaventure A10     18-10    20-10     <0.1
 90.    Massachusetts   A10     18-10    19-11     <0.1
 93.    Loyola Chicago  A10     20-8     22-9      <0.1
 96.    George Mason    A10     18-10    20-11     <0.1

The Atlantic 10 (1) has a clear favorite and really no one else who is close—but plenty on the horizon. That's what makes this league dangerous to any team on the bubble. Because Dayton is almost certain to get it, and if anyone else wins the conference tournament, that shrinks the bubble. And look how many live contenders there are to challenge the Flyers! Richmond has a small chance of playing their way into at-large contention, but the other five teams are there to go on an upset run and steal a bid. Watch out.

Rank    Team            Conf    Rec      Proj     %Odds
 51.    James Madison   SB      27-3     28-3      40.9
 70.    Appalachian St. SB      25-5     26-5       7.9

And finally we include the Sun Belt (1) because they are the last conference to show multiple teams in contention for an at-large bid, though neither looks set to make it. James Madison is creeping closer and closer to at-large area but won't quite make it above 50%. But you don't necessarily have to reach 50%, as sometimes the Committee makes unexpected decisions. If Appalachian State wins the tournament, James Madison would have a reasonable shot at a bid. Technically so does App State, but that would be a stretch for the Committee.

Alabama beats Ole Miss 103-88, proving power ratings work!

Alabama just beat Mississippi 103-88 in Oxford—which basically proves power ratings work. Yes, just this one game did that. (kidding)

Without them (and indeed, any time pre-Jeff Sagarin) the teams would have been considered roughly equal. Both teams were 19-8 coming into the game, so it's fair to say both would be ranked (or not ranked) about the same in the AP top 25. But sportswriters have gotten wise, and consult power ratings to some extent, which is why Mississippi doesn't have a single vote while Alabama is at #14 (the Tide are still under-ranked, so not every sportswriter has caught up with the times)

Granted, it's very likely that Ole Miss would have slid a lot after losing 5 of their last 6 games no matter what decade we're talking about. But they only appeared in the poll once (#22) when they were 15-1, and were left out even at 18-4. Their #63 ranking by KenPom probably had a lot to do with that. Even in the Sagarin era the Rebels would have been close to the top ten at 15-1.

But Bracketology is different, and a good record can be more dazzling. And a bad record a big drawback. On December 28, when Ole Miss was 12-0 and Alabama was 7-5, most Bracketologists had Mississippi around a 6-seed, while Alabama wasn't on the board. Some Bracketologists don't "forecast" the rest of the season as opposed to taking a "Selection Sunday is today" approach, so those results make some sense. But since we use power ratings to forecast the bracket's end result, let's see where Alabama and Mississippi were back in late December and how close our prediction came, in the December 24 Dance Chance:

                                   |       Record      | Dance Chance | Seed                   
Rank Team                     Conf   Rec   Proj   Chalk  %Odds   %Chg   Proj  Prev
  1. Purdue                   B10   11-1   28-3   30-1    99.7   +0.7     1     1 
  2. Arizona                  P12    9-2   28-3   29-2    99.5   +0.7     1     1 
  3. Houston                  B12   12-0   27-4   29-2    98.1   +1.4     1     1 
  4. BYU                      B12   11-1   26-5   29-2    94.7   +2.8     1     2 
  5. Iowa St.                 B12   10-2   24-7   27-4    91.7   +1.3     2     2 
  6. Florida Atlantic         Amer  10-2   27-4   29-2    90.4  +10.4     2     3 
  7. Alabama                  SEC    7-5   23-8   26-5    90.3   +2.6     2     2 
  8. Connecticut              BE    11-2   24-7   27-4    88.7   -3.3     2     1

This was our forecast for games through December 23. Not too bad; we had three of the currently consensus 1-seeds as the top three. UConn was a 2-seed, having been a 1-seed the previous week before losing to Seton Hall. Florida Atlantic had just upset Arizona so they were ranked very high in Strength and projected to walk through the American, which didn't quite happen. BYU's Strength was very high, but they've been up and down (up lately after the Kansas upset). 

And then there's Alabama, at 7-5, but projected for greater things:

Alabama is only 7-5 but they're favored by the Strength power rating in every game going forward, and projected to finish around 23-8. The Tide recovered [from a loss to Arizona] with a 111-67 blowout of Eastern Kentucky.

Alabama is 20-8 now, so they'd still have to win their last three games to make our projection come true. But they're now a 3-seed in the Bracket Matrix.

Meanwhile Mississippi:

                                   |       Record      | Dance Chance | Seed                   
Rank Team                     Conf   Rec   Proj   Chalk  %Odds   %Chg   Proj  Prev
 73. Mississippi              SEC   12-0   19-12  17-14   25.2   +4.1       

Mississippi is the final of the three undefeated teams left, and even at 12-0 they're not very close to being a projected tournament team. The problem is their #93 Strength rating, which means they're only favored to win three games going forward, and with variance probably get 5 wins to finish 19-12. One of the games they should win is Bryant, but after that they might only win two SEC games. We'll see if that happens, as the Rebels have already beaten some decent teams—9-3 NC State, 10-2 Memphis, and 8-3 UCF. This is why they're #3 in Success, and #15 Overall in our power ratings. But Strength is best for looking to the future, and the future isn't bright. They're roughly in the same spot LSU was last year when the Tigers started 12-1 before going 2-16 in the SEC. The Tigers did upset Arkansas as part of their early win streak so I think the Rebels might upset Tennessee before their inevitable slide.

Mississippi didn't beat Tennessee (it wasn't close), but they were 5-3 in conference games before really hitting the skids. They're 19-9 now, and (converse of Alabama) need to lose their last three to match our projection. But the basic storyline came true. And Mississippi is no longer in the seedings in the Bracket Matrix. Though it did fluctuate, their Dance Chance—25.2% in late December—is now 24.3%, barely changed after two months.

Tonight's dominant road win by Alabama shows that power ratings really do work. Ok, you can't declare that based on one game—otherwise one wrong game could prove the reverse. But the trajectory of both teams over the last two months shows that even fairly early in the season you have a good basic idea of how the 2nd half of the year is going to play out for the majority of teams. And you don't get there by looking at a team's record alone.

That should be obvious at this point but there are still people stuck on Win-Loss record as a predictor going forward. It's kind of funny, but the pollsters really caught on to Ole Miss being a glass cannon but they didn't catch on to Alabama's quality for a long time. The Tide weren't ranked until they won 7 more games (vs. one loss). But they were a projected 2-seed or 3-seed in the Dance Chance a month prior to that.

And further, we looked at what our final score projection for tonight's game would have been back on December 24th, and the result was: Alabama 90, Ole Miss 75.

A lot less scoring, but the exact margin, from a prediction more than 2 months ago.

The lesson is: check your local power ratings before fretting about your team's NCAA tournament chances—and also before assuming they'll be in based on an early win streak.

3 weeks until Selection Sunday 2024: Are Michigan State, Florida Atlantic in trouble?

A few weeks left and a couple of teams that thought they were in the clear might not be, but first, the top of the February 26th Dance Chance:

                                ||  Record    ||    Dance Chance    || Seed  2/25  2/18
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr   Proj   %Odds   %Chg  1-seed   Snap  Proj  Proj
  1. Houston                B12   24-3   27-4   100.0    0.0   97.4     1     1     1  
  2. Purdue                 B10   25-3   27-4   100.0    0.0   97.0     1     1     1  
  3. Connecticut            BE    25-3   27-4   100.0    0.0   82.7     1     1     1  
  4. Arizona                P12   21-6   25-6   100.0    0.0   46.3     1     1     1  
  5. Tennessee              SEC   21-6   24-7   100.0    0.0   27.7     2     2     2  
  6. Iowa St.               B12   21-6   24-7   100.0    0.0   21.4     2     2     2  
  7. North Carolina         ACC   21-6   24-7   100.0    0.0   12.7     2     2     2  
  8. Alabama                SEC   19-8   22-9   100.0   +0.1    4.7     3     2     3  
  9. Kansas                 B12   21-6   23-8   100.0    0.0    0.9     2     3     2  

Houston and Purdue have been neck-and-neck for a few weeks and this time the Cougars get the edge as the overall #1 seed. Houston beat 2-seed Iowa State at home and 4-seed Baylor on the road, a Strength of Schedule that's hard to compete with. Purdue for their part beat Rutgers and Michigan. Not quite the same. Both teams are near-locks for a 1-seed at 97%+. UConn started the week with a big loss (85-66) at Creighton but recovered with a 78-54 home win over Villanova and actually increased their 1-seed odds from 76% to 83%—mostly due to Arizona's home loss to Washington State. The Wildcats dropped from 70% to 46% 1-seed odds, making UConn's bid more certain and opening the door for others, potentially.

Who are those "others"? Tennessee is a great candidate, especially if they win the SEC and Arizona stumbles in the Pac-12 tournament. The Vols beat Missouri by just 5 points but crushed Texas A&M 86-51. Iowa State's 1-seed odds are pretty good despite the loss at Houston, mostly centering on the chance they have of winning the Big Twelve tournament. North Carolina is the last team with double digit odds but they really have to win the ACC tournament to have a shot at a 1-seed. 

The only difference between our "snapshot" top seeds and the projection is that Kansas is currently a 2-seed and Alabama a 3-seed, and we expect those to swap. It's very close between these two; Alabama's win at Florida put them up to 100% tourney odds, but the subsequent big loss at Kentucky (117-95) drained their 1-seed odds from 13.7% to 4.7%. Kansas beat Texas in their only game last week and fell a seed for their trouble. We give them almost no shot at a 1-seed, mostly because their Strength (#16) doesn't give them much hope of winning the Big Twelve tournament.

                                ||  Record    ||    Dance Chance    || Seed  2/25  2/18
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr   Proj   %Odds   %Chg  1-seed   Snap  Proj  Proj
 10. Marquette              BE    21-6   23-8   100.0   +0.1    3.6     3     3     3  
 11. Auburn                 SEC   21-6   24-7   100.0   +0.1    4.9     3     3     3  
 12. Creighton              BE    20-8   22-9   100.0   +0.7    0.2     3     3     4  
 13. Duke                   ACC   21-6   24-7   100.0   +0.1    0.2     4     4     3  
 14. Clemson                ACC   19-8   22-9    99.9   +2.2    --      4     4     5  
 15. San Diego St.          MWC   21-7   23-8    99.8   +0.5    --      4     4     4  
 16. Baylor                 B12   19-8   22-9    99.7   -0.2    0.3     4     4     4  
 17. Kentucky               SEC   19-8   22-9    99.7   +4.6    --      5     5     6  
 18. Illinois               B10   20-7   22-9    98.6   -0.6   <0.1     5     5     4  
 19. BYU                    B12   19-8   21-10   97.7   -0.2    0.2     6     5     5  

Four other teams joined the "100%" club this week. Marquette and Creighton both made it from the Big East; the Golden Eagles won twice while the Jays crushed 1-seed UConn 85-66 and not even an 80-66 loss to St. John's could halt their rise to a 3-seed (their 1-seed odds, however, went from 0.2% to 1.8% and back down to 0.2%). Auburn beat Georgia by 21 points on the road, and Duke sealed the deal with a 29-point win at Miami, followed by a loss at Wake Forest that knocked them down a seed.

Clemson added two wins and almost made it three ACC teams in the 100% column. San Diego State recovered from a loss at Utah State, beating Fresno 73-41 and holding their 4-seed.  Baylor lost twice yet they held their 4-seed, as the losses were to 5-seed BYU (on the road) and 1-seed Houston (in overtime). Nowadays there is less seed-wise movement for losses and big wins, as BYU found out after they lost to Kansas State but held their 5-seed. Kentucky's big win over Alabama was offset by a loss to LSU, but the Wildcats still moved up a notch. Illinois lost to Penn State mid-week dropping the Illini to a 5-seed.

                                ||  Record    ||    Dance Chance    || Seed  2/25  2/18
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr   Proj   %Odds   %Chg  1-seed   Snap  Proj  Proj
 20. Utah St.               MWC   22-5   26-6    96.8  +10.8    --      5     5     7  
 21. TCU                    B12   19-8   21-10   96.3   +4.1    --      5     6     6  
 22. Colorado St.           MWC   20-8   23-8    93.9   -1.6    --      6     6     5  
 23. Wisconsin              B10   18-9   20-11   93.6   +1.9    --      6     6     6  
 24. New Mexico             MWC   21-7   23-8    92.1   -3.6    --      8     6     5  
 25. Wake Forest            ACC   18-9   21-10   91.9  +22.4    --      9     7     9  
 26. Washington St.         P12   21-7   23-8    90.5  +16.4    --      6     7     8  
 27. Saint Mary's           WCC   23-6   25-6    89.6   +2.2    --      8     7     7  
 28. Florida                SEC   19-8   22-9    88.4   +5.2    --      7     7     8  

Three more Mountain West teams are 6-seeds or very close, starting with Utah State who beat San Diego State and moved from a 7-seed to the bottom 5-seed. Colorado State fell a seed after losing twice on the road, to New Mexico and UNLV. Beating the Rams temporarily gave New Mexico the top 5-seed, but losing at home to 9-17 Air Force dumped the Lobos down to the bottom 6-seed.

The biggest upward mover this week was Wake Forest, who beat Pitt 91-58 and then edged Duke 83-79, going from below 70% odds to over 90% odds. Washington State could have topped that but after beating 1-seed Arizona in Tucson the Cougars saw their 8-game win streak broken by Arizona State. Still, they're up a seed and over 90% in selection odds as well. Florida is surprisingly close to that level, too; the Gators took Alabama into overtime on the road before losing and beat Vanderbilt to rise to a 7-seed.

                                ||  Record    ||    Dance Chance    || Seed  2/25  2/18
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr   Proj   %Odds   %Chg  1-seed   Snap  Proj  Proj
 29. Nebraska               B10   20-8   22-9    88.0  +14.1    --      7     8     8  
 30. Texas Tech             B12   19-8   22-9    87.9   -1.5    --      7     8     7  
 31. Nevada                 MWC   22-6   24-8    87.0   +7.8    --      8     8     8  
 32. Dayton                 A10   21-5   24-6    85.8   -6.3    --      7     8     6  
 33. Mississippi St.        SEC   19-8   21-10   85.4  +17.0    --      8     9    10  
 34. Boise St.              MWC   19-8   21-10   82.5   +9.9    --      9     9     9  
 35. Gonzaga                WCC   22-6   23-7    76.8   +6.5    --      9     9     9  
 36. South Carolina         SEC   22-5   23-8    76.0  +11.3    --      9     9    11  
 37. Oklahoma               B12   19-8   20-11   74.5   +4.9    --     10    10     9  
 38. Northwestern           B10   19-8   21-10   64.5   +2.9    --     10    10    11  

Nebraska stayed an 8-seed but improved their odds 14% last week. Why did pedestrian wins over Indiana and Minnesota help so much? Because with just three games left plus the Big Ten tournament, they can't do worse than 20-12. Mississippi State won their 4th and 5th straight and added 17% to their odds, and gained a seed. And South Carolina beat Mississippi on the road, 72-59 and moved up two seeds; the worst they can end up is 22-10, so the doubts about their Strength are pretty much moot now.

Dayton took a hit with a loss at George Mason, costing them 2 seeds. The Flyers are still in good shape going into the home stretch and don't need to win the Atlantic 10 tournament—as of now. 

                                ||  Record    ||    Dance Chance    || Seed  2/25  2/18
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr   Proj   %Odds   %Chg  1-seed   Snap  Proj  Proj
 39. Michigan St.           B10   17-11  19-12   61.4  -27.6    --           10     7  
 40. Colorado               P12   18-9   21-10   60.9  +15.2    --     11p   10        
 41. Indiana St.            MVC   24-5   26-5    60.7   +6.8    --     10    11    12p 
 42. Florida Atlantic       Amer  21-7   23-8    60.5   -6.8    --     11    11    10  
 43. Seton Hall             BE    18-9   20-11   58.4  +11.4    --     10    11        
 44. Virginia               ACC   20-8   21-10   57.4  -11.3    --     11    11p   10  
 45. Texas                  B12   17-10  19-12   56.7   -8.9    --     12p   11p   10  
 46. Pittsburgh             ACC   18-9   20-11   55.6   -4.5    --     12p   12p   11p 
 47. Drake                  MVC   23-6   24-7    52.1   -2.9    --     11    12p   11  
 48. Providence             BE    18-9   20-11   49.9  +15.4    --     11p             
 49. Utah                   P12   16-11  19-12   45.1   -5.8    --                 12p 
 50. James Madison          SB    26-3   28-3    40.0   +4.0    --     12    12    12  
 51. Princeton              Ivy   21-3   23-4    39.5   +2.9    --     12    12    12  
 52. Villanova              BE    15-12  17-14   33.9   -0.8    --                     
 53. McNeese St.            Slnd  24-3   27-3    33.6   +2.2    --     12    12    13  
 54. Samford                SC    25-4   27-4    31.1   +5.5    --     13    13    13  
 55. St. John's             BE    16-12  18-13   28.7  +14.8    --                     
 56. Oregon                 P12   18-9   20-11   28.0   +4.2    --                     
 57. Butler                 BE    16-12  18-13   27.2  -12.5    --                     
 58. Cincinnati             B12   16-11  18-13   25.7  -31.7    --                 11p 

Let's talk about The Bubble, starting with Michigan State who last week looked to be in the clear but lost not once but TWICE at home, to Iowa and Ohio State, knocking their projected seed from 7 to 10 and even knocking the Spartans back out of the "snapshot" seedings. If Selection Sunday were today, Michigan State would be left out. Odds are they play themselves back in but wow, two home losses in a row from a strong home team, very odd. They don't play again until Saturday at Purdue.

And what about Florida Atlantic? The Owls lost another American Athletic conference game, this time to hot-and-cold Memphis, dropping them to an 11-seed and one spot below Indiana State of the Missouri Valley, interestingly. Most people wouldn't have the Sycamores ahead of the Owls but their résumés—both wins and losses—are similar and Indiana State is 4 spots ahead in the NET rankings. Still, the Bracket Project consortium has FAU a low 8-seed and Indiana State a low 11-seed.

Colorado and Seton Hall enter the seedings this week. The Buffaloes beat USC in double overtime then beat another bubble Pac-12 team, Utah, 89-65 which was enough to drop the Utes from the Last Four In to the First Four Out. Seton Hall added wins over St. John's and Butler. 

Last Four In: Virginia, Texas, Pitt, and Drake all survived losses and held on as play-in teams. The Cavaliers lost twice, to Virginia Tech and North Carolina, while Pitt lost to Wake Forest and beat Virginia Tech. Texas lost to Kansas on the road, while Drake fell to Northern Iowa.

First Four Out is basically the Big East: Other than the aforementioned Utah, the rest of the First Four Out are all from the Big East (assuming we skip auto-bids James Madison and Princeton). Providence would be in the tournament if selected today; Villanova still has a shot due to their schedule (including Providence and Seton Hall, with Creighton at home); and St. John's upset Creighton 80-66 on Sunday to give them the boost they needed at the right time. Will it last? We'll see. Another Big East team, Butler, took a hit with their 3rd and 4th losses in a row but no team from this league is out until the Big East tournament is over.

Oregon is one of the few Pac-12 teams still in contention, and Cincinnati was one of many Big Twelve teams that looked solid last week but the home loss to Oklahoma State knocked them off the upper bubble, and the 75-57 followup loss to TCU made it worse. From 57.4% to 25.7% in one week hurts, but he Bearcats have a chance on Tuesday to get it all back when they play at Houston. Wish them luck!

                                ||  Record    ||    Dance Chance    || Seed  2/25  2/18
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr   Proj   %Odds   %Chg  1-seed   Snap  Proj  Proj
 59. Grand Canyon           WAC   24-4   27-5    24.8  -21.7    --     13    13    12  
 60. Mississippi            SEC   19-8   21-10   24.3  -14.0    --                     
 61. Ohio St.               B10   16-12  18-13   23.1   +4.1    --                     
 62. Iowa                   B10   16-12  18-13   21.4   +9.2    --                     
 63. SMU                    Amer  19-9   22-9    21.3  -19.3    --                     
 64. Virginia Tech          ACC   15-12  18-13   20.5   +2.7    --                     
 65. Syracuse               ACC   18-10  19-12   18.0   +6.4    --                     
 66. Texas A&M              SEC   15-12  17-14   13.9  -31.5    --                     
 67. Memphis                Amer  20-8   22-9    12.6   +4.4    --                     
 68. San Francisco          WCC   22-7   23-8    11.5   -2.0    --                     
 69. Kansas St.             B12   16-11  17-14   10.9   +6.3    --                     
 70. N.C. State             ACC   17-10  18-13   10.3   -6.9    --

Above are teams who are mostly out of luck now, but not hopeless. Grand Canyon was nearing the waterline each week and building a 24-2 record but the Antelopes lost not once but TWICE last week, to Tarleton State and Abilene Christian, doubling their losses for the year and cutting in half their odds for an at-large bid. The 'Lopes are still heavy favorites to win the WAC tournament but if they don't, that's it.

Mississippi has been a winning team all year but never looked good enough to keep it going; the best they did was to get to the First Four Out, though they defied the "Chalk" prediction that they would win only 3 conference games. The Rebels have lost 5 of their last 6 in SEC play including a loss to rival Mississippi State and a home loss to hi-Success low-Strength counterpart South Carolina. Conference-mate Texas A&M is on a 4-game losing skid of their own, with the home loss to Arkansas being the main factor in their 31.5% drop this week. They also lost to Tennessee by 35, which didn't help.

Ohio State and Iowa both beat Michigan State in East Lansing last week, and naturally both moved up but that was tempered by losses in their other game, with both now standing at 16-12, projected to be 18-13, and each with about a 1 in 5 shot at making the tournament. It's more amazing that the Buckeyes are still in it despite having a season bad enough to get their coach fired, but they've beaten Purdue and Michigan State since that happened.

Virginia Tech and Syracuse are neck and neck for a bid from the ACC. The Hokies made a statement in beating Virginia 75-41 but losing to Pitt 79-64 reduced the impact. The Orange beat NC State (who fell to about a 10% chance) and Notre Dame last week and now have a winning record in the ACC. The teams play each other on Tuesday. 

SMU and Memphis have been the American Athletic conference's hopes for a 2nd bid this season, even as they languish in 5th and 6th place in the league. Memphis added two wins including a huge win over FAU but it only resulted in a small bump above 12%. SMU, on the other hand, lost twice (to FAU and USF) and dropped from 40% odds to nearly 20%. 

Can San Francisco give the WCC a third bid? They're 22-7 but their odds have been dwindling each week as the big wins they need have not manifested. They had a chance last week but lost to St. Mary's in a close one, 70-66 on the road. They play Gonzaga on Thursday and that will be their last shot at making something happen until the WCC tournament.

Kansas State upset BYU and got a good boost from it, but they're still near 10% odds at 16-11. They'll need a good Big Twelve tournament run even if they upset Kansas and Iowa State in their last regular season games.

                                ||  Record    ||    Dance Chance    || Seed  2/25  2/18
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr   Proj   %Odds   %Chg  1-seed   Snap  Proj  Proj
 77. UCF                    B12   14-12  15-15    1.1   -1.9    --                     
 79. Miami FL               ACC   15-13  16-15    0.4   -7.9    --                     
 80. VCU                    A10   18-9   20-11    0.4   -3.0    --                     
 81. UC Irvine              BW    20-8   24-8     0.3   -2.4    --     13    13    13  
 82. Georgia                SEC   15-12  17-14    0.3   -0.4    --                     
 83. South Florida          Amer  21-5   23-6     0.2   -0.2    --                     
 84. Boston College         ACC   15-12  17-14    0.1   -3.3    --                     
 85. Xavier                 BE    13-14  15-16    0.1   -7.1    --                     
 86. LSU                    SEC   14-13  17-14   <0.1   -1.6    --                     
 87. Rutgers                B10   14-13  15-16   <0.1   -1.1    --                     
 88. Florida St.            ACC   14-13  16-15   <0.1   -0.5    --                     
 90. Yale                   Ivy   18-8   21-8    <0.1   -1.1    --                     
 97. Cornell                Ivy   20-5   22-6    <0.1   -3.9    --                     
103. Charlotte              Amer  17-10  19-11    0.0   -0.1    --                     
120. Indiana                B10   14-13  15-16    0.0   -0.1    --                               

These teams all declined a larger amount than their remaining odds, let's see why. 

UCF went 1-1 last week and actually upset Texas Tech. But at 14-12 there's not much room left. Miami lost at home to Duke (expected) and Georgia Tech (not) and lost most of their remaining hope at 15-13. VCU is 18-9 but that's not great for the Atlantic 10 this year; the loss to UMass (74-52) eroded most of their small hopes.

UC Irvine is still expected to make the tournament, just not from an at-large bid. Losing to UC San Diego, their 8th loss, pretty much shut that door. Georgia is 15-12 after losing to Auburn, their 7th loss in 8 games. 

Somehow, South Florida fell from 0.4% to 0.2% after a great week where they beat UTSA and SMU. But our system has no love for the AAC-leading Bulls, who are now 21-5 and confounding braketologists who either have to put them as the auto-bid or leave them out. Their NET ranking is pretty abysmal, too (#84).

Major conference woes: Boston College? From 3.4% to 0.1% after losses to FSU and NC State put them at 15-12. Xavier is now underwater at 13-14, going from 7.1% to 0.1%. LSU upset Kentucky last week but the follow-up loss to Mississippi State, at home by 20, dropped them from 1.6% to under 0.1%. Rutgers is another casualty, losing to Purdue and Maryland to sit at 14-13. Florida State is much, much better than last year's team but at 14-13 their tourney hopes are all but zero. 

Still not quite zero! Yale is a respectable 18-8 but even winning out and losing in the Ivy League finals won't make them anything but a long shot. Cornell lost to Yale last week and is in the same boat despite a 20-5 record. Yale Strength is much better, so their odds of actually winning out tops Cornell's odd.

No hope at all? Charlotte lost to Memphis and Tulsa, and despite being 3rd in the AAC we don't give them a chance of an at-large bid any more. Indiana falls worse after losses to Nebraska and Penn State; it's time to turn out the lights, the 14-13 Hoosiers either win the Big Ten tournament or hope to finish above .500 for the NIT.