SportsRatings: College Basketball

Was West Virginia robbed? No, but North Carolina did get a gift

Another year of Bracketology prognostication is over, and the big controversy is West Virginia vs. North Carolina. I had both of them out, so in my book West Virginia can't complain they were robbed, but North Carolina really caught a break. But let's start from the top:

                                        At-lg   %Change          Total     Seed
Rank Team                  Conf  Rec    %Odds  -1dy  -1wk 1seed  %Odds  Proj Actual
  1. Auburn                SEC   28-5   100.0   0.0   0.0  99.0  100.0   1     1   
  2. Florida               SEC   30-4   100.0   0.0   0.0  98.9  100.0   1     1   
  3. Duke                  ACC   31-3   100.0   0.0   0.0  98.2  100.0   1     1   
  4. Tennessee             SEC   27-7   100.0   0.0   0.0  39.6  100.0   1     2   
  5. Alabama               SEC   25-8   100.0   0.0   0.0  33.2  100.0   2     2   
  6. Houston               B12   30-4   100.0   0.0   0.0  31.1  100.0   2     1   
  7. Michigan St.          B10   27-6   100.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  100.0   2     2   
  8. Kentucky              SEC   22-11  100.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  100.0   2     3   
  9. Missouri              SEC   22-11  100.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  100.0   3     6   

Auburn was our overall #1 seed and perhaps surprisingly, the Selection Committee stuck with them. I was pretty sure they'd go with Duke or Florida, and if Florida had beaten Tennessee by 20 points I think the Dance Chance would have put them #1. The top three were very close and then the next three were, too, but despite winning the Big Twelve tournament Houston couldn't climb over the SEC teams, and Tennessee remained #4 despite their loss Sunday. It seems like every year the Dance Chance overvalues a few teams from the dominant conference while the Committee likes to spread things out. Hence we see Missouri getting our highest 3-seed while IRL the Tigers were just a 6-seed!

After that it was a litany of teams off by 1 seed line, generally. Formulas don't tend to do well in Bracketology scoring; humans are much better at "yes, but..." logic that the Selection Committee uses. AI would probably do well but the few attempts I've seen have been no better than the formula approach. The worst seeding job by the Dance Chance this year was Memphis:

                                        At-lg   %Change          Total     Seed
Rank Team                  Conf  Rec    %Odds  -1dy  -1wk 1seed  %Odds  Proj Actual
 34. Memphis               Amer  28-5    93.6  +4.2 +11.8   0.0  100.0   9     5   

The Tigers got a 5-seed, and that was questioned by many. The Bracket Matrix average was an 8-seed, so it wasn't just us.

Like I said, in terms of seedings, formulas don't do so great, but in terms of "who gets in" the formulas do pretty well, and the Dance Chance was 66 of 68, which is a good human score if you look at the Bracket Matrix. There weren't many surprises this year, but a big one was West Virginia being left out, and North Carolina getting in. The majority also thought Indiana would be in, instead of Texas. 

As you can see below, the Dance Chance was right about Texas being in and West Virginia being left out, but missed on Indiana and North Carolina, as well as Baylor (in) and Boise State (out).

                                        At-lg   %Change          Total     Seed
Rank Team                  Conf  Rec    %Odds  -1dy  -1wk 1seed  %Odds  Proj Actual
 40. UC San Diego          BW    30-4    73.5  +2.2  +8.4   0.0  100.0  10    12   
 41. Xavier                BE    21-11   64.9  +1.5  +5.7   0.0   64.9  11    11p  
 42. VCU                   A10   28-6    61.9  +3.4 +10.0   0.0  100.0  11    11   
 43. San Diego St.         MWC   21-9    59.8  +3.1  -1.0   0.0   59.8  11p   11p  
 44. Colorado St.          MWC   25-9    58.1  +3.5 +13.9   0.0  100.0  11    12   
 45. Texas                 SEC   19-15   55.6  +2.5 +21.3   0.0   55.6  11p   11p  
 46. Indiana               B10   19-13   52.7  +1.2 -10.9   0.0   52.7  12p   xx   
 47. Boise St.             MWC   24-10   50.9  +1.0  +2.8   0.0   50.9  12p   xx   
 48. Baylor                B12   19-14   49.1  +1.3  +2.0   0.0   49.1         9   
 49. North Carolina        ACC   22-13   48.0  +0.7  +2.7   0.0   48.0        11p  
 50. West Virginia         B12   19-13   44.1  +1.2 -11.1   0.0   44.1             
 51. Drake                 MVC   30-3    43.1  +1.1  -5.7   0.0  100.0  12    11   

Not long before Selection Sunday I noted that the Dance Chance had Baylor and West Virginia—both from the Big Twelve—as the First Teams Out. I looked up the NET ranking for both and saw that Baylor was running around #30 while West Virginia was below #50. In the Bracket Matrix Baylor was a solid 9-seed while West Virginia was a low 10-seed. I figured I was going to miss on Baylor—it happens—but I felt West Virginia was more on the bubble than most people thought. In the end, despite 243 of 249 Bracketologists vouching for them, the Mountaineers were left out. 

The governor of WVA has hilariously started an "investigation" of the Selection Committee over North Carolina getting in, but both were bubble teams and our formula—as unbiased as it gets when simple numbers pick the teams—had the Tar Heels ahead. Baylor ended up a 9-seed meaning they were solidly in, and we had Boise State just a few percentage points ahead or we would have had 67 right. There's no shame in missing on your Last Two In and First Two Out, but Baylor was a big miss. Part of it was their record—the Bears are just 18-14 vs. Division I opponents. 

I can see the case against North Carolina, and my method didn't have them in either. But Indiana was probably a better choice than West Virginia. The NCAA should stop saying who the First Team Out was, that's the real solution. It was a bad look to have the Committee chaired by a school that was Last Team In, and they didn't help things with a bad excuse about West Virginia missing a player that was easily refuted. The Dance Chance knows nothing about missing players and still left the Mountaineers out, so there was other logic they could have used—like the #51 NET ranking. Of course then you could bring up 5-seed Memphis's #49 NET ranking. And so it goes.

There were two other teams that would have been "misses" if they hadn't won their conferences. UC San Diego only got a 12-seed instead of the 10-seed where we had them, and Drake got the 11-seed instead of the 12 we gave them. Luckily we didn't have to choose between the two. The Mid-Majors are the hardest teams to seed, hence the confusion around Memphis, etc. The one-bid leagues are spaced out enough to seed them pretty easily, but when teams play an easy schedule and have a gaudy record, the NET kind of goes out the door and conference rank and yes, a team's name has an influence.

2025's bubble was very resilient

This year's bubble was very resilient. Even by Thursday's games, the SEC, ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, and Big East were set to crown a champ that was already in the tournament field. In other words, there would be no shrinkage of the bubble due to the Major conferences. All of the Cinderellas had been snuffed out.

And by Friday's games, there were only three potential spots to be lost to upsets, with the odds favoring around 1 spot lost. Memphis in the American, VCU in the Atlantic 10, and possibly UC San Diego in the Big West were the only teams that could lose and shrink the bubble.

                                        At-lg   %Change          Total      Seed
Rank Team                 Conf   Rec    %Odds  -1dy  -5dy 1seed  %Odds  Now -1dy -5dy
 34. Memphis               Amer  27-5    81.5  -0.9  -0.3   0.0   91.4   9    8    9 
 35. New Mexico            MWC   26-7    76.8  -4.6  -1.9   0.0   76.8   9    9    9 
 36. Connecticut           BE    23-10   74.4  -3.9  +3.0   0.0   74.4   9    9    9 
 37. Oklahoma              SEC   20-13   73.4  +3.5  +8.2   0.0   73.4  10   10   10 
 38. Creighton             BE    24-9    73.2  +4.2  +3.3   0.0   81.3  10   10   10 
 39. Utah St.              MWC   26-7    66.5  -4.5  -3.4   0.0   66.5  10   10   10 
 40. UC San Diego          BW    29-4    64.3  +2.5  -0.8   0.0   86.6  10   10   10 
 41. Xavier                BE    21-11   60.3  +1.7  +1.1   0.0   60.3  11   11   11p
 42. San Diego St.         MWC   21-9    59.1  +4.8  -1.7   0.0   59.1  11p  11p  11 
 43. VCU                   A10   26-6    56.0  +3.7  +4.1   0.0   80.9  11   11   11 
 44. Boise St.             MWC   24-9    55.0  +3.0  +6.9   0.0   78.9  11   12p  12p
 45. Indiana               B10   19-13   54.9  +0.8  -8.7   0.0   54.9  11p  11p  11 
 46. Colorado St.          MWC   24-9    50.6  +7.2  +6.4   0.0   73.7  12p          
 47. Texas                 SEC   19-15   50.5 -10.5 +16.2   0.0   50.5  12p  11      
 48. North Carolina        ACC   22-13   48.2  -2.7  +2.9   0.0   48.2       12p     
 49. Baylor                B12   19-14   47.0  -2.8  -0.1   0.0   47.0            12p
 50. West Virginia         B12   19-13   45.7  -1.6  -9.5   0.0   45.7            11p
 51. Drake                 MVC   30-3    42.5  -1.6  -6.3   0.0  100.0  12   12   12 
 52. UC Irvine             BW    28-5    37.7  -0.8  -4.4   0.0   61.1               
 53. Ohio St.              B10   17-15   32.1  -1.3 -13.6   0.0   32.1               
 54. San Francisco         WCC   24-9    28.2  +0.7  -0.9   0.0   28.2               
 55. Santa Clara           WCC   20-12   23.0  -2.6  +2.6   0.0   23.0            

Even among those, there's a question whether the bubble would really shrink in a few cases. UC San Diego would likely stay in our seedings, but most Bracketologists have the Tritons a 12-seed, so they won't make the field if they lose to UC Irvine. And VCU is on the bubble themselves; would the Rams survive a loss?

Only a Memphis loss clearly shrinks the bubble. 

In our projection, Texas is the team rooting hardest for Memphis to win and keep the bubble's waterline where it is.

If Memphis does lose, the Longhorns (and others who are worrying) can hope for a Boise State win, which should knock Colorado State down a few spots. Right now the Rams are Last Team In if Memphis loses, and presumably wouldn't survive a loss. Boise State may or may not survive a loss. Most likely, the Selection Committee keeps the winner and dumps the loser, especially if they're taking three other MWC teams. Not that San Diego State won't be sweating a bit on Sunday...!

Thursday bubble match-ups: San Diego State vs. Boise State in key game; Indiana, North Carolina on the line

We're getting down to the nitty gritty, the big games are starting to ramp up. Let's look at the bubble as of yesterday and see which big games are on the calendar today.

Update: So far, the big upsets are coming close but not happening. Cases in point:

Texas Tech 76, Baylor 74

Louisville 75, Stanford 73

Marquette 89, Xavier 87 

First the hopefuls below the bubble. This is our First Four Out and Next Four Out, and those still playing need wins the most:

                                        At-lg   %Change          Total      Seed
Rank Team                 Conf   Rec    %Odds  -1dy  -3dy 1seed  %Odds  Now -1dy -3dy
 48. Texas                 SEC   18-14   46.1 +14.8 +11.8   0.0   46.4               
 49. Drake                 MVC   30-3    44.7  -2.3  -4.1   0.0  100.0  12   12   12 
 50. North Carolina        ACC   21-12   43.5  +1.2  -1.8   0.0   48.4               
 51. Colorado St.          MWC   22-9    43.0  +0.8  -1.2   0.0   47.6               
 52. UC Irvine             BW    27-5    36.4  -0.2  -5.7   0.0   53.2               
 53. Ohio St.              B10   17-15   32.7 -10.0 -13.0   0.0   32.7               
 54. San Francisco         WCC   24-9    25.1  -1.3  -4.0   0.0   25.1               
 55. Santa Clara           WCC   20-12   23.2  -0.2  +2.8   0.0   23.2               

Texas just improved their lot by...a lot in beating Vanderbilt on Wednesday, making the Longhorns First Team Out—as long as the bubble holds where it is. Texas is playing Texas A&M as we speak and they probably need that win to get to the right side of the cut-line. Update: Texas won in double overtime, meaning there might be 14 SEC teams in the tournament.

North Carolina is another team on the verge of a bid and playing as we speak. Beating Notre Dame helped a bit, but Texas clearly passed them in our book. The Tar Heels have another winnable game against Wake Forest, who is far below the bubble right now at 17%. The Deacs would still have work to do with a win—they'd probably have to beat Duke—but for UNC, a win probably gets them over the hump assuming a loss to the Blue Devils follows. Update: North Carolina beat Wake Forest 68-59. A loss from Texas would have really helped them! Things are pretty much going their way otherwise.

Colorado State got the support of Joe Lunardi but they need more than that. They play Nevada late tonight and need a win there, and probably another one after that to be over the top.

That's it for the wanna-bes: Drake is already in; UC Irvine doesn't play until tomorrow; Ohio State is stuck at 17-15 after losing to Iowa last night; and San Francisco and Santa Clara both lost in the West Coast Conference tournament.

Now the borderline teams. They don't necessarily need a win, but they can't afford a loss, either.

                                        At-lg   %Change          Total      Seed
Rank Team                 Conf   Rec    %Odds  -1dy  -3dy 1seed  %Odds  Now -1dy -3dy
 42. San Diego St.         MWC   21-8    59.5  -1.3  -1.3   0.0   64.7  11   11   11 
 43. Xavier                BE    21-10   58.0  -1.2  -1.2   0.0   61.3  11p  11p  11p
 44. Baylor                B12   19-13   56.4  +9.3  +9.3   0.0   58.5  11p  12p  12p
 45. VCU                   A10   25-6    50.6  +0.7  -1.3   0.0   67.1  11   11   11 
 46. West Virginia         B12   19-13   46.9  -7.3  -8.3   0.0   46.9  12p  11p  11p
 47. Boise St.             MWC   22-9    46.9  -0.2  -1.2   0.0   52.2  12p  12p  12p

The biggest bubble game on Thursday is between two teams at this level: San Diego State vs. Boise State. The Aztecs have been "assumed" to be in all year, but when you get right down to it they aren't safe. Boise State has been just outside everyone else's seedings for a while, and they're our Last Team In at the moment. And that's with a bubble that doesn't shrink. This is a really key game for both teams, tipping off late in the afternoon. Update: Boise State upset the Aztecs 62-52, leaving both teams in limbo. San Diego State is fortunate that the teams below them, Xavier and Baylor, both lost and West Virginia is out of the ACC tournament and won't be adding to their résumé. Boise State will play New Mexico next.

Baylor is holding on as a play-in team after beating Kansas State yesterday but probably needs to beat Texas Tech to feel safe. Xavier is in the same situation regarding their game vs. Marquette early in the afternoon. Update: Xavier lost 89-87 and should survive, but if the bubble shrinks they're in trouble.

VCU doesn't play until tomorrow and West Virginia, having lost to Colorado, hangs on as a 12-seed providing things don't shift too much.

Safe or not? Teams on the bubble borderline

                                        At-lg   %Change          Total      Seed
Rank Team                 Conf   Rec    %Odds  -1dy  -3dy 1seed  %Odds  Now -1dy -3dy
 35. New Mexico            MWC   25-6    77.4  -0.3  -1.3   0.0   84.4   9    9    9 
 36. Oklahoma              SEC   20-12   74.5 +10.3  +9.3   0.0   74.5   9   10   10 
 37. Connecticut           BE    22-9    70.2  -0.2  -1.2   0.0   74.1  10    9    9 
 38. Creighton             BE    22-9    66.9  -2.0  -3.0   0.0   70.0  10   10   10 
 39. Utah St.              MWC   25-6    66.1  -2.8  -3.8   0.0   72.6  10   10   10 
 40. UC San Diego          BW    28-4    62.9  -0.5  -2.2   0.0   79.6  10   10   10 
 41. Indiana               B10   19-12   61.6  -1.0  -2.0   0.0   62.2  11   11   11

Indiana is the key team here. Having beaten Ohio State yesterday the Hoosiers faced Oregon this afternoon and lost, 72-59. It probably leaves them a play-in team but safe unless the bubble shrinks too much.

New Mexico is probably in good shape no matter what happens, but what about Utah State? Both play today (vs. San Jose State and vs. UNLV), with the Aggies having to play a road game in Las Vegas. Update: New Mexico beat SJSU;

Oklahoma probably sealed their bid with yesterday's win over Georgia, but beating Kentucky tonight couldn't hurt.

UConn and Creighton are surprisingly low on the Dance Chance's radar. The Huskies play Villanova, who is a bit below the bubble at 13%, while the Jays go up against DePaul who is at 0% for an at-large. 

UC San Diego is a 10-seed right now per the Dance Chance, higher than anyone at the Bracket Matrix has them. So they might even need to win the Big West tournament.

1 Week before Selection Sunday 2025 State of the Bubble

Ok, first let's decide what the Bubble is. Let's say it's the 8 teams above or below the cutline. So where is the cutline? Right now we project it's 48 teams deep, with Baylor the last team in. But given the odds for conference tournament upsets and Bubble shrinkage, it will probably be 45 teams deep. At eight teams above that cutline, Utah State would be included, and since their Dance Chance odds are almost exactly the same, Creighton would get caught in this definition, too. But we're going to say that for now, both are pretty safe. The tournament "needs" more Big East and Mountain West teams, and both teams are this close to 70%.

                                        At-lg   %Change          Total      Seed
Rank Team                 Conf   Rec    %Odds  -3dy  -1wk 1seed  %Odds  Now -3dy -1wk
 37. Creighton             BE    22-9    69.9  +4.1  +2.6   0.0   71.8  10   10   10 
 38. Utah St.              MWC   25-6    69.9  +3.4  -0.2   0.0   73.9  10   10    9 

One conference tournament win for each should seal the deal. Both play on Thursday: Creighton has the Georgetown/DePaul winner, and Utah State gets either UNLV or Air Force. In case of an upset, check back in a few days and they'll be on the bubble.

So next to consider are Oklahoma and UC San Diego, which are above the current Bubble but probably not the projected Bubble. The Sooners finished a respectable 19-12, just 6-12 in conference but just look at their schedule before getting judgy. They beat Missouri and Texas last week to improve 28%, jumping from below the waterline to a 10-seed. The bad news: their very first conference game is Georgia on Wednesday, and Kentucky if they win that. Ugh. The Tritons have the inverse problem: too easy of a schedule. The Bracket Matrix hasn't pulled UC San Diego above the 12-seed line, meaning that if they lose in the Big West tournament, most people think they won't get an at-large. They don't play until Friday, and only need two games to win the auto-bid, but nothing is certain if they lose.

                                        At-lg   %Change          Total      Seed
Rank Team                 Conf   Rec    %Odds  -3dy  -1wk 1seed  %Odds  Now -3dy -1wk
 39. Oklahoma              SEC   19-12   65.2 +14.2 +28.2   0.0   65.5  10   11p     
 40. UC San Diego          BW    28-4    65.1  +2.5  -3.0   0.0   75.5  10   10   10 
 41. Indiana               B10   19-12   63.6 +14.6  +5.8   0.0   64.2  11        11 
 42. San Diego St.         MWC   21-8    60.8  +7.3  -1.3   0.0   64.3  11   11   10 
 43. Xavier                BE    21-10   59.2  +3.7  +3.5   0.0   61.3  11p  10   11 
 44. West Virginia         B12   19-12   55.2  +6.0  +6.0   0.0   56.1  11p  12p  12p
 45. VCU                   A10   25-6    51.9  -3.2  -6.3   0.0   63.7  11   11   11 

Indiana dipped out of our seedings after losing to Oregon but beating Ohio State put them back in. They play Oregon again in their first game on Thursday, with Michigan State to follow. They probably need a win to secure themselves. San Diego State is blessed with a strong "name" and being only the third MWC team in the mix, but if they lose to Boise State on Thursday the Broncos might replace them. Xavier plays Marquette on Thursday and might be sweating if they lose that one, while a win really helps. West Virginia gets either TCU or Colorado and a lost would put the Mountaineers in limbo for sure, bid-wise. A win helps but they face Houston after that. And VCU might very well be the Last Team in right now, they're in the Last Four for sure. The Rams have a double-bye and face either St. Bonaventure or Duquesne. Two wins probably makes them safe, but three removes all doubt!

The three teams below are just above the current waterline, so they represent the Last Few In or the First Few Out, depending on how much the cutline moves up. Drake doesn't have to worry about any of this as they just beat Bradley to win the Missouri Valley's automatic bid. At 30-3 they earned it, but being 29-4 would have make them a coin flip for an at-large. Baylor did what just about any bubble team would last week: beat TCU but lost to Houston. They get Kansas State or Arizona State first and need a win, mostly because a loss would hurt so much! Depending on what the cut-line does, that might not be enough; they face Texas Tech after.

                                        At-lg   %Change          Total      Seed
Rank Team                 Conf   Rec    %Odds  -3dy  -1wk 1seed  %Odds  Now -3dy -1wk
 46. Drake                 MVC   30-3    48.8  +7.8  +1.2   0.0  100.0  12   12   12 
 47. Boise St.             MWC   22-9    48.1  -1.7  -5.0   0.0   51.6  12p  12p  11p
 48. Baylor                B12   18-13   47.1  -5.9  -2.7   0.0   48.5  12p  11   12p

As mentioned, Boise State takes on San Diego State first in the MWC tournament. The Broncos lost at home to Colorado State or they'd be in even better position, but beating the Aztecs would give them breathing room.

Speaking of Colorado State, the Rams have won seven in a row now but are barely mentioned in the Bracket Matrix (which to be fair, only lists teams that are "in" a bracket, so I wouldn't be mentioning them either). Their first game will be Nevada or Fresno State, since they got the 2-seed in the tournament. The high-profile bubble teams here are Ohio State and North Carolina. The Buckeyes lost a pivotal Bubble matchup at Indiana, 66-60 and fell off their play-in team status to the First Team Out. The Tar Heels failed to beat Duke which was so expected that they moved 0.0% afterwards. Ohio State plays Iowa first and Illinois after, which isn't a bad draw; it gives them a good chance to lift themselves up with a few wins. North Carolina is only ACC team #4, which gives them a boost, and their draw is decent, too: Notre Dame or Pitt, followed by Wake Forest.

                                        At-lg   %Change          Total      Seed
Rank Team                 Conf   Rec    %Odds  -3dy  -1wk 1seed  %Odds  Now -3dy -1wk
 49. Ohio St.              B10   17-14   45.7  -6.8  -7.8   0.0   47.0       11p  11p
 50. North Carolina        ACC   20-12   45.3   0.0  +3.1   0.0   48.1               
 51. Colorado St.          MWC   22-9    44.2  +6.4  +2.8   0.0   47.2               
 52. UC Irvine             BW    27-5    42.1  +9.8  +3.6   0.0   52.4               
 53. Texas                 SEC   17-14   34.3 -11.2  +0.8   0.0   35.1               
 54. San Francisco         WCC   24-8    29.1   0.0  -4.0   0.0   37.3               
 55. Santa Clara           WCC   20-12   20.4 -12.4 -18.5   0.0   20.4               
 56. Dayton                A10   22-9    19.1  +3.4  +3.2   0.0   29.9

UC Irvine has an uphill battle to an at-large given that even UC San Diego isn't on most brackets unless they auto-bid. So let's skip to Texas, who shot themselves in the foot by losing to Oklahoma at home Saturday. On Wednesday they face Vanderbilt, with Texas A&M looming. One win probably won't do it, so they Longhorns need a big one. The last three teams are already pretty big longshots, and indeed, if the cut-line moves as expected they aren't even Bubble teams. San Francisco is still alive in the West Coast tournament and the question is: if they beat Gonzaga but lose to St. Mary's in the final, do they have a chance? Santa Clara can't ask that question as they are out of the WCC tournament but still show a generous 20% at-large chance. Dayton probably needs to win the Atlantic 10 tournament since they have a double-bye and going 2-1 isn't going to cut it.

Conference championship week 2025: Dance Chance snubbing Houston?

It took a while, but the rest of the Bracketology world seems to have come around to embracing our conclusion that Florida is a solid 1-seed. Almost every Bracket Matrix participant has the Gators a top seed now, along with Auburn and Duke. Florida beat Alabama on the road and Ole Miss at home to finish 27-4, which matched Auburn after the Tigers dropped their last two games to Texas A&M and Alabama. Despite similar records and the fact that Florida beat Auburn (this also applies to Duke!) the Tigers are the overall 1-seed due to outrageous number of big wins. They're only 1-3 against the other 1-seeds but have 16 Quad-1 wins. The Tide will have to console themselves with being a hair ahead of Tennessee in the 1-seed race.

                                        At-lg   %Change          Total      Seed
Rank Team                 Conf   Rec    %Odds  -3dy  -1wk 1seed  %Odds  Now -3dy -1wk
  1. Auburn                SEC   27-4   100.0   0.0   0.0  99.0  100.0   1    1    1 
  2. Florida               SEC   27-4   100.0   0.0   0.0  91.4  100.0   1    1    1 
  3. Duke                  ACC   28-3   100.0   0.0   0.0  88.4  100.0   1    1    1 
  4. Alabama               SEC   24-7   100.0   0.0   0.0  52.2  100.0   1    2    2 
  5. Tennessee             SEC   25-6   100.0   0.0   0.0  48.2  100.0   2    1    1 
  6. Houston               B12   27-4   100.0   0.0   0.0  18.0  100.0   2    2    2 
  7. Kentucky              SEC   21-10  100.0   0.0  +0.1   1.4  100.0   2    2    2 
  8. Michigan St.          B10   26-5   100.0   0.0  +0.1   1.6  100.0   2    2    2 

The Bracket Matrix didn't come around to our view of Houston, which we therefore assume is going to be wrong. It makes sense as the Cougars are #3 in the NET rankings despite being #10 in our Success rankings, which is what is holding them back in the Dance Chance. Winning the Big Twelve tournament might get them into our 1-line, but might not be enough to pass two SEC teams depending on what happens in that league's tournament. It looks pretty certain that we are going to show three SEC teams as 1-seeds come Selection Sunday. The Cougars' losses to Auburn and Alabama in November don't help their cause either. Another SEC team, Kentucky, is currently a 2-seed rather than the consensus St. John's. Algorithms don't care as much as humans do when "there are too many {conferenceName} teams in the top ten!"

                                        At-lg   %Change          Total      Seed
Rank Team                 Conf   Rec    %Odds  -3dy  -1wk 1seed  %Odds  Now -3dy -1wk
 24. Georgia               SEC   20-11   94.0  +7.9 +15.1   0.0   94.1   6    8    8 
 33. Arkansas              SEC   19-12   83.3 +11.8 +24.7   0.0   83.5   9    9   10 

The SEC also has two of the top upward-moving teams in the Dance Chance. Both Georgia and Arkansas pretty much sealed the deal for themselves over the last week or so. The Bulldogs won 4 in a row at the end, with South Carolina and Vanderbilt in the last seven days. Arkansas also topped Vandy as well as Mississippi State, part of a 25% jump that puts them in pretty safe territory.

I'm going to do a separate Bubble analysis, so I'll skip a large chunk of the projection here...

Below are teams that fell off the bubble in the last regular-season week. Most have a chance to redeem themselves and at the very least improve their at-large odds, but Nebraska is not one of those as the Cornhuskers failed to even qualify for the Big Ten tournament (which oddly takes 15, not 16 of the 18 conference teams). As we posited several days ago, they are left to be judged as a 17-14 team, full stop. A week ago at 17-12 it looked pretty certain they'd win at least one of two remaining games, but they lost to Ohio State in double overtime on the road, and to Iowa at home, 83-68. As bad as that was, Cincinnati's odds dropped even worse, from about 40% to 5.6% with losses to Kansas State and cellar-dwelling Oklahoma State. The only good thing is they have the conference tournament in their future, where their first opponent is again Oklahoma State.

                                        At-lg   %Change          Total      Seed
Rank Team                 Conf   Rec    %Odds  -3dy  -1wk 1seed  %Odds  Now -3dy -1wk
 58. Nebraska              B10   17-14   18.0 -14.2 -20.1   0.0   18.0               
 59. SMU                   ACC   22-9    17.7  -9.4 -14.6   0.0   20.4               
 63. Cincinnati            B12   17-14    5.6 -15.8 -33.9   0.0    7.2               
 64. Villanova             BE    18-13    4.9  -4.5 -15.0   0.0    8.7               
 65. North Texas           Amer  23-7     3.7 -11.1 -14.6   0.0   16.7               
 66. Northwestern          B10   16-15    3.1  -1.8 -11.9   0.0    4.4               

SMU fell off the bubble due to their loss to Florida State after beating Syracuse by 2 points; as the 6-seed, they'll rematch the winner of those teams in the 2nd round of the ACC tournament, then they'd get a shot at Clemson. That would be enough to put them back on the bubble, and with only three (3) ACC teams in the Dance right now, that might be enough (though North Carolina and Wake Forest are in line ahead of them). Villanova played only once last week, losing to Georgetown and that was enough to crush their odds by 75%, from 20% to 5%. They play Seton Hall in the first round with UConn waiting. 

North Texas was trying to build a case for an at-large from the American Athletic, but losing to Temple set them back quite a bit more than their 7-game win streak did to promote them. Now under 5% odds, the Mean Green might rematch Temple in their first conference tournament game, then probably face UAB before Memphis. It seems that winning the AAC title is their only path.

And Northwestern finished above .500 but just barely, hence their tiny odds down 11.9% from last week when they at least had "hope points" based on the chance of beating either UCLA or Maryland. Neither happened. The Dance Chance is now a "snapshot" rather than a projection, so future hope doesn't count for anything in the odds. The Wildcats did qualify for the Big Ten tournament so all hope is not yet lost. They have a very winnable game first (Minnesota), then they run into Wisconsin, UCLA, and probably Michigan State before the finals. So their odds could rocket upward and they'd be 20-15 by then. It's not likely but it's a better scenario than confronts Nebraska right now.

Biggest Bubble games left: Oklahoma vs. Texas, Ohio State-Indiana, Boise State-Colorado State

Half a week left before the Major conference tournaments start. Let's look at the biggest bubble games left in the next few days ending Sunday, March 9, 2025:

Pure bubble games
These are games between two teams, both on the bubble. High importance, but how much can be written in stone by the results?

Oklahoma (51.0%) at Texas (45.5%) - Saturday
Ohio State (52.5%) at Indiana (49.0%) - Saturday
Colorado State (37.8%) at Boise State (49.8%) - Friday

                                    Record     At-lg   Dance Chance     Total
Rank Team                 Conf   Curr   Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  %Odds seed prev
 41. VCU                   A10   25-5   26-5    55.1  -3.1   0.0   0.0   65.0  11   11 
 42. San Diego St.         MWC   20-8   21-8    53.5  -8.6   0.0   0.0   56.8  11   10 
 43. Baylor                B12   18-12  18-13   53.0  +3.2   0.0   0.0   54.0  11   12p
 44. Ohio St.              B10   17-13  18-13   52.5  -1.0   0.0   0.0   53.4  11p  11p
 45. Oklahoma              SEC   18-12  18-13   51.0 +14.0   0.0   0.0   51.4  11p     
 46. Boise St.             MWC   22-8   23-8    49.8  -3.3   0.0   0.0   52.6  12p  11p
 47. West Virginia         B12   18-12  19-12   49.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   50.0  12p  12p
 48. Indiana               B10   18-12  18-13   49.0  -8.8   0.0   0.0   49.6       11 
 49. Texas                 SEC   17-13  18-13   45.5 +12.0   0.0   0.0   46.1          
 50. North Carolina        ACC   20-11  20-12   45.3  +3.1   0.0   0.0   47.6          
 51. Drake                 MVC   27-3   27-3    41.0  -6.6   0.0   0.0   54.0  12   12 
 52. Colorado St.          MWC   21-9   21-10   37.8  -3.6   0.0   0.0   40.5          
 53. Santa Clara           WCC   20-11  20-11   32.8  -6.1   0.0   0.0   38.0          
 54. UC Irvine             BW    25-5   27-5    32.3  -6.2   0.0   0.0   41.5          
 55. Nebraska              B10   17-13  18-13   32.2  -5.9   0.0   0.0   32.9          

• Oklahoma at Texas: The Sooners just got back on the board as a play-in team following their 96-84 upset win over Missouri. The Longhorns got a huge win, too, beating Mississippi State on the road in overtime; that put them in striking distance in the First Four Out. Now one of them is going to get a further boost while the loser will languish below the waterline heading into the SEC tournament. Odds slightly favor Texas as the home team. The upshot is that the winner might only have to win one game in the SEC tournament while the loser will need two wins. That's a big difference in the SEC tournament, as the first round games are very winnable, the 2nd round not so much.
• Ohio State at Indiana:  Ohio State is one spot above the "projected" waterline after the bubble shrinks, and Indiana is Last Team Out by the "current" waterline. The Buckeyes beat Nebraska in double overtime to hold onto their 11-seed, while Indiana lost at Oregon to lose theirs. We have the Buckeyes a super-tight favorite. An Indiana win would put both teams in limbo going into the Big Ten tournament, where they will be the 9- and 10-seeds depending on who wins. The 9-seed gets a bye, the 10-seed does not and will play one of six teams, all beatable, then face Illinois or Oregon in an attempt to get a 2nd win they'll most likely need. The winner (the 9-seed) will face either Illinois or Oregon right away, so is that any better? The only difference is, the winner here probably has only one loss from this date forward, the loser has two. Other than that, not much will be cleared up.
• Colorado State at Boise State: The Rams are in the Dance Chance's Second Four Out but don't have much traction elsewhere. So beating Boise State—who is Last Team Out in the Bracket Matrix, and in the Dance Chance is Last Four In (current waterline), or First Four Out (by the projected shrunken bubble waterline)—would help put their name in the hat. Maybe. Both teams are on win streaks and need this one for another quality win. Boise is a pretty solid favorite. 

Power games
These could launch a team upward quite a bit, but the odds are not good.

Baylor (53.0%) vs. Houston (100%) - Saturday
North Carolina (45.3%) vs. Duke (100%) - Saturday

• Baylor vs. Houston: Baylor beat TCU on Tuesday and isn't in bad shape, with most putting them at a 10-seed. Still, few have the Bears as a lock, but that could change if they beat Houston on Saturday in Waco. The Bears lack really big wins (though they have six Quad-1 wins, Kansas is the only win that stands out as major). For Houston this is about getting a 1-seed; you could say they're on the 1-seed bubble and this is a pretty important game in that regard. A Baylor loss makes the Big Twelve tournament pretty important for the Bears, but they'll be the 7- or 8-seed with a bye, and face a team they should be able to beat to pick up a win.
• North Carolina vs. Duke: Duke's not on the 1-seed bubble, instead they're pretty much a lock in that regard. But North Carolina still needs help getting above the waterline. Five wins in a row have the Tar Heels in the First Four Out, assuming the bubble doesn't shrink much. A win over Duke would put them firmly above going into the ACC tournament. A loss means they'll have work to do in the conference tournament; UNC will probably be the 5-seed, which is better than getting the 4-seed since they'll have a winnable game early instead of a double bye. But beating Duke would trump getting a minor ACC tournament win.

Bubble teams vs. Long Shots
Teams on the bubble face teams with little hope

VCU (55.1%) vs. Dayton (15.7%) - Friday
West Virginia (49.2%) vs. UCF (0.9%) - Saturday
Nebraska (32.2%) vs. Iowa (0.6%) - Sunday

• VCU vs. Dayton: VCU is in the Last Eight In at best, or the Last Four In by the projected (smaller) bubble. Either way, they're expected to win the Atlantic 10 tournament and have already sewed up the top seed. Beating Dayton would give them some more leeway in case they falter in the tourney. The Flyers are much further below the bubble at 15.7% chance for an at-large berth, and much of that hope rests on beating Dayton on the road. That alone won't get them into the prime consideration region, but it would set them up for a tournament run that could. Thing is, it would also likely give them a double-bye that would only allow for two more wins if they lose in the final, and their at-large numbers might not add up. The Flyers might need to win the conference tournament, but on the other hand, the Rams might be in that same boat.
• West Virginia vs. UCF: The Mountaineers beat Utah Tuesday night, a result that kept them exactly on the waterline as Last Team In, a 12-seed play-in team, so they need every win they can get. UCF is next up, and the Knights are at just under 1.0% at-large odds following a win over Oklahoma State. Upsetting the Mountaineers won't change that very much, but it would keep hope alive that a 4-1 run in the Big Twelve tournament might make the Selection Committee consider a 21-15 team on a hot streak. West Virginia is on the boundary of getting a first-round bye in the tournament, but they might not want it as they could get two wins instead of one as a 9-seed rather than the 8-seed.
• Nebraska vs. Iowa: The Cornhuskers have lost four in a row and their tourney odds have dwindled in lock-step. Now at just 32.2% after their double-overtime loss to Ohio State, they need to beat Iowa not just to improve those odds, but to make sure they even get into the Big Ten tournament. In other words, lose to Iowa and Nebraska is judged as a 17-14 team with a 7-13 Big Ten record. Win and they are an 11- or 12-seed in the conference tournament and can get another win, making them 19-14 or better. Big difference! For 15-14 Iowa, beating the Cornhuskers wouldn't help their 0.6% Dance Chance odds much nor insure a place in the Big Ten tournament—unless they also beat Michigan State Thursday night, in which case suddenly the 17-14 Hawks have new life, and can fantasize about a 4-1 run that gets them an at-large bid. But if you're hoping against that much hope, why not just win the whole tournament and get an auto-bid?

 

2024-2025 Two weeks before Selection Sunday: Georgia, Indiana In; Nebraska, Texas out

Two weeks before Selection Sunday and here's our top eight teams:

Auburn is all but a lock not just for a 1-seed but the overall top seed. Their 30-point win over Ole Miss and 94-78 road win over Kentucky would be many teams' best wins of the season, and they did it just last week. Florida, who most people see as a 2-seed but is neck and neck here with Duke for the 2nd 1-seed spot. The Gators lost to Georgia but beat Texas A&M 89-70 on Saturday. They'll need a strong showing in the SEC tournament to get a 1-seed given the competition inside and outside the league. The Blue Devils probably have a 1-seed sewed up in everyone's mind, and 37- and 35- point beatdowns of Miami and Florida State didn't hurt. Finally, Tennessee beat Alabama on Saturday 79-76 on a game-winning three to give them a slight lead over the Tide in the 1-seed sweepstakes. 

                                    Record     At-lg   Dance Chance     Total
Rank Team                 Conf   Curr   Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  %Odds seed prev
  1. Auburn                SEC   27-2   29-2   100.0   0.0  99.4  +0.2  100.0   1    1 
  2. Florida               SEC   25-4   26-5   100.0   0.0  88.9  -0.1  100.0   1    1 
  3. Duke                  ACC   26-3   28-3   100.0   0.0  85.6  +3.0  100.0   1    1 
  4. Tennessee             SEC   24-5   26-5   100.0   0.0  59.1  +0.6  100.0   1    1 
  5. Alabama               SEC   23-6   24-7   100.0  +0.1  44.2  -2.1  100.0   2    2 
  6. Houston               B12   25-4   27-4   100.0  +0.1  17.8  +2.6  100.0   2    2 
  7. Michigan St.          B10   24-5   26-5   >99.9   0.0   2.6  +1.8  >99.9   2    2 
  8. Kentucky              SEC   19-10  20-11  >99.9   0.0   1.7  -3.9  >99.9   2    3 

That race probably is exactly as close as we have it above, and it probably is for the last 1-seed. But at this point the general feeling is that a 1-seed is Houston's to lose; in other words, swap Florida and Houston above, with Auburn and Duke 1-seed locks, the three SEC teams fighting for the remaining 2 spots. The Cougars are finally racking up some big wins that eluded them in the pre-conference season where they lost to both Auburn and Alabama; they beat Texas Tech last Monday for their 7th Quad-One win (Tennessee and Alabama have 10; Florida and Duke, 6 each; Auburn: 16!!!) Interestingly, Michigan State has 10 Quad 1 wins and no one has suggested they're in the running, and indeed we have the Spartans with a low outside chance. If they win the Big Ten tournament they'll be close but probably end up the top 2-seed. Kentucky still has a chance too, due to an abundance of huge wins offset by their 10 losses.

Auburn hosts Alabama in the last Very Big Game of the regular season Saturday; before that, Alabama hosts Florida. The Tide still have a chance to park themselves in the 1-seed slot prior to the SEC tournament. 

Below are a few teams that made decent-sized moves last week. Texas Tech lost to Houston at home but their rebound win at Kansas pushed them up to a 3-seed. But Arizona's 84-67 loss to Iowa State dropped them 2 seeds, with Arizona State and Kansas left on the menu. In the Big Ten Maryland peaked last week at a 3-seed but losing to Michigan State at home—and barely edging past Penn State on Saturday—deflated that balloon.

                                    Record     At-lg   Dance Chance     Total
Rank Team                 Conf   Curr   Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  %Odds seed prev
 10. Texas Tech            B12   22-7   24-7   >99.9  +0.3   0.0  -0.1  >99.9   3    5 
 17. Maryland              B10   22-7   25-7   >99.9   0.0  <0.1  -1.2  >99.9   5    3 
 25. Arizona               B12   19-10  20-11   94.1  -1.9   0.0   0.0   94.2   7    5 
 26. Vanderbilt            SEC   20-9   21-10   92.5 +18.7   0.0   0.0   92.5   7    9 
 32. Georgia               SEC   18-11  20-11   78.9 +31.2   0.0   0.0   79.0   8      

The two biggest movers this week were in the SEC, as if that league needed more good fortune. Vanderbilt all but locked up their appearance with wins over Texas A&M and Missouri, and it wasn't easy: the Commodores topped the Aggies 86-84 and needed overtime at home to dust off the Tigers. A few bad bounces and Vandy would have tumbled into the thick of the bubble; instead, they're looking sharp with Arkansas and Georgia left, then the conference tournament. Speaking of Georgia the Bulldogs leapt from below the waterline to an 8-seed, up from around 50/50 to almost 80%, due to their 88-83 win over Florida and topping Texas 83-67 on the road. They're reasonable likely to hit 20 wins this week with South Carolina in addition to Vandy left (the latter is at Georgia).

The expanded bubble: With only a few weeks left, we're now looking at an expanded bubble. Below are the teams who are above the projected waterline. Right now the cut-off point is 47 teams deep, but after conference tournament upsets it will be a few spots higher (2.74, we calculate, so call it three!) That means teams all the way up to #37 are in the Last Eight In. UC San Diego shows up a solid 10-seed in our projection but the Big West doesn't get much respect, so even at 26-4 most people have the Tritons needing to win the Big West tournament to go dancing. I think there's some leeway but they need to at least make the final. VCU is the other conference race favorite here, and in contrast we have them ranked almost exactly consensus: in, but in trouble if they lose again. Interestingly, they have one Quad-1 win to UC San Diego's 2 (but many more Quad 2).

                                    Record     At-lg   Dance Chance     Total
Rank Team                 Conf   Curr   Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  %Odds seed prev
 37. UC San Diego          BW    26-4   28-4    68.1  +3.5   0.0   0.0   73.7  10   10 
 38. Creighton             BE    20-9   22-9    67.3  -4.9   0.0   0.0   68.5  10    9 
 39. San Diego St.         MWC   20-7   22-7    62.1  +3.0   0.0   0.0   64.1  10   10 
 40. Arkansas              SEC   17-12  18-13   58.6  -9.8   0.0   0.0   58.8  10    9 
 41. VCU                   A10   24-5   26-5    58.2  +1.0   0.0   0.0   66.0  11   11 
 42. Indiana               B10   18-11  18-13   57.8 +10.6   0.0   0.0   58.1  11      
 43. Xavier                BE    19-10  21-10   55.7  +3.6   0.0   0.0   57.0  11   11p
 44. Ohio St.              B10   16-13  18-13   53.5  +1.5   0.0   0.0   54.0  11p  12p

Creighton's 83-61 loss to Xavier put the Bluejays in some possible peril but almost everyone sees them making the tournament. And it lifted the Musketeers a bit but the jury is still out; they're not "In" in the Bracket Matrix just yet, other systems are torn, and we have them at around 57%. San Diego State's name, let's face it, gives them the benefit of the doubt, and they're only team #3 in the MWC which placed six last year. Arkansas lost badly to South Carolina Saturday but Wednesday's overtime win over Texas kept them in; also, there are only 12 SEC teams now, which helps, but they have two tough games left (Vandy and Mississippi State). Indiana has made an amazing turnaround and now is favored to make the tournament. At 14-10 five games ago they had little chance; though, we showed an ample 19.3%, mostly because of the chance of winning some big games—which they did! Ohio State also holds on, and if the bubble shrinks they're really in trouble. The Buckeyes face the Hoosiers this coming Saturday.

The heart of the bubble is below. These teams are above the waterline now, but staying where they are is like not moving your towel as the tide comes in. They need to move up or risk getting wet. Boise State especially, as it's only recently that the rest of the Bracketology world starting taking note of them. Now they are the First Team Out in the Bracket Matrix, while we've had them on the bubble for some time. As we noted Mountain West contenders are in shorter supply this year which helps, but given their rank here, the Broncos need to win out and do some damage in their tournament.

                                    Record     At-lg   Dance Chance     Total
Rank Team                 Conf   Curr   Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  %Odds seed prev
 45. Boise St.             MWC   21-8   23-8    53.1  +0.6   0.0   0.0   55.0  11p  11p
 46. Baylor                B12   17-12  18-13   49.8 -10.6   0.0   0.0   50.4  12p  10 
 47. West Virginia         B12   17-12  19-12   49.2  -2.1   0.0   0.0   49.6  12p  12p

Baylor got hit hard last week with a loss at Cincinnati, and their win over Oklahoma State Saturday was pretty meaningless. West Virginia got scorched at BYU. This puts them just above a waterline that might not hold. Helping both teams is the fact that without them, the Big Twelve only has six teams which seems low in today's mega-conference world. But Cincinnati might jump ahead of them; the Baylor win helped a lot more than the (very expected) Houston loss hurt, so the Bearcats are a legit contender in the First Four Out. Drake is in the ultimate "we can get an at-large only if we don't need it" position as the Missouri Valley favorite. Also near the waterline are Colorado State (we noted how there are only three Mountain West teams in right now), North Carolina (did we mention that there are only three ACC teams too?) The Rams take on Boise State in a very important MWC bubble game Friday, and the Tar Heels can not only move into the seedings but probably seal a bid if they beat Duke Saturday. Given those low odds, they better beat Virginia Tech Tuesday.

                                    Record     At-lg   Dance Chance     Total
Rank Team                 Conf   Curr   Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  %Odds seed prev
 48. Drake                 MVC   27-3   27-3    47.6  -0.1   0.0   0.0   57.4  12   12 
 49. North Carolina        ACC   19-11  20-12   42.2  +2.7   0.0   0.0   43.5          
 50. Colorado St.          MWC   20-9   21-10   41.4  +9.3   0.0   0.0   43.2          
 51. Cincinnati            B12   17-12  19-12   39.5  +8.6   0.0   0.0   40.0          
 52. Santa Clara           WCC   20-11  20-11   38.9  -1.5   0.0   0.0   42.3          
 53. UC Irvine             BW    25-5   27-5    38.5  -1.2   0.0   0.0   45.6          
 54. Nebraska              B10   17-12  18-13   38.1 -20.8   0.0   0.0   38.4       11 
 55. Oklahoma              SEC   17-12  17-14   37.0 -12.7   0.0   0.0   37.2          
 56. Texas                 SEC   16-13  17-14   33.5 -22.8   0.0   0.0   33.9       11 

As we see an SEC and Big Ten team join the seedings, so, too do an SEC and Big Ten team leave them. Nebraska won 4 straight to look like a solid bid, but then lost 5 of 6 to sink their odds; the loss at home to Minnesota was the last straw dumping them 20%. Texas crashed almost 25% after losses at Arkansas (in OT) and Georgia; the latter, at home and by 16 points, did the damage. The Longhorns have a shot at getting two solid wins (Miss. State and Oklahoma) before the tournament though. The Sooners need to win that one themselves, and beating Missouri on Wednesday wouldn't hurt either, for their on-and-off bid chances. Above we also see Santa Clara, who hangs on in our rankings despite losing to Gonzaga 95-76 (our system just likes the Broncos for some reason; but then again, so does the NET where they are #53). And UC Irvine, the "other" Big West team, who looks to finish 27-5 and just out of the money. They are where most people put UC San Diego, I think.

Below are some teams that fell off the bubble radar last week. SMU and Wake Forest were well-positioned as the ACC needs more teams, but the Mustangs lost to Stanford Saturday and only have Syracuse and FSU left which won't impress. The Deacons lost to Virginia last week but have an opportunity vs. Duke tonight to turn things around, but on the road they have little chance (and update: they just lost). Liberty has been floating in this area all season: a 12-seed with no upward mobility. Still, their at-large odds remained respectable until they lost to Kennesaw State at home, knocking them to near single-digits, far from the bubble.

                                    Record     At-lg   Dance Chance     Total
Rank Team                 Conf   Curr   Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  %Odds seed prev
 58. SMU                   ACC   21-8   23-8    32.3 -10.8   0.0   0.0   33.5          
 59. Wake Forest           ACC   20-9   21-10   23.5 -13.5   0.0   0.0   24.2          
 66. Liberty               CUSA  23-6   25-6    11.6 -13.3   0.0   0.0   42.0  12   12 
 68. George Mason          A10   22-7   24-7     5.4 -13.3   0.0   0.0   11.4          
 69. Pittsburgh            ACC   16-13  18-13    4.7 -26.7   0.0   0.0    5.9          
 79. Oregon St.            WCC   20-11  20-11    0.2  -9.9   0.0   0.0    3.2                   

George Mason was once in good shape in the Atlantic 10, either as tournament winner or at-large contender, but two losses in their last three games have put them out of at-large contention at 5%. The Patriots fell to Duquesne Saturday, 85-68, which isn't a good sign for the conference tournament either. Pittsburgh is yet another ACC team fading when the conference needs Dance reps! But going 7-11 in an "easy" Major conference doesn't look good; the Panthers' latest losses were Georgia Tech and Louisville. And Oregon State wasn't looking great last week but they were over 10% odds; now they're near zero. That's an overall drop of 98%!! What happened? Losses to both San Francisco (at home) and St. Mary's; neither is a very bad loss, but going 20-11 in the WCC isn't going to get you near the bubble. Wait a minute, Santa Clara is 20-11 too...? Well, they beat Gonzaga once, but...so did Oregon State. And the Broncos are at 39% with the Beavers near zero? I guess our system just likes Santa Clara.

Mid-week report 2/28/2025: Tennessee-Alabama play for 1-seed Saturday?

The big game Saturday is in Knoxville where Tennessee hosts Alabama, with the winner taking the lead for a 1-seed heading into conference tournaments. Auburn, Duke, and Florida are all but locks, and Alabama and Tennessee are the favorites for the last 1-seed. Unless Houston wins the Big Twelve tournament it looks like 3 teams from the SEC. Alabama, in particular, controls their own destiny to a 1-seed, playing Tennessee, Florida, and Auburn in their last 3 games! So we should see their 1-seed odds either rocket or plummet in the next week or so.

                                    Record     At-lg   Dance Chance     Total
Rank Team                 Conf   Curr   Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  %Odds seed prev
  1. Auburn                SEC   26-2   29-2   100.0   0.0  99.3  +0.1  100.0   1    1 
  2. Duke                  ACC   25-3   28-3   100.0   0.0  84.5  +1.9  100.0   1    1 
  3. Florida               SEC   24-4   26-5   100.0   0.0  84.2  -4.8  100.0   1    1 
  4. Alabama               SEC   23-5   24-7   100.0  +0.1  58.4 +12.1  100.0   1    2 
  5. Tennessee             SEC   23-5   26-5   100.0   0.0  50.6  -7.9  100.0   2    1 
  6. Houston               B12   24-4   27-4   >99.9   0.0  17.1  +1.9  >99.9   2    2 
  7. Kentucky              SEC   19-9   20-11  >99.9   0.0   3.1  -2.5  >99.9   2    3 

Auburn is nearly a lock for the top overall seed at this point. The Tigers travel to Kentucky, another 1-seed contender who will probably have to settle for a 2-seed at best, though beating Auburn could rekindle their hopes. Duke could be the overall #1 but there aren't a lot more big wins on their schedule (they face Florida State Saturday). Winning the ACC tournament would help, but they mostly need Auburn to stumble. They have a win over the Tigers which helps, as does Florida. The Gators fell to Georgia on Tuesday knocking them to #3 in the pecking order; they host Texas A&M Saturday. Houston hosts Cincinnati.

Two SEC teams made big gains in the lower seeds, too. Vanderbilt upset Texas A&M on the road, 86-84 on Wednesday putting their odds near the 90% mark, while Georgia jumped from the First Four Out to a 10-seed with an 88-83 win over 1-seed Florida. They travel to Texas on Saturday, a big game for both bubble teams; the Longhorns slipped out of the seedings after losing to Arkansas in overtime Wednesday, but they are the First Team Out.

                                    Record     At-lg   Dance Chance     Total
Rank Team                 Conf   Curr   Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  %Odds seed prev
 29. Vanderbilt            SEC   19-9   20-11   85.6 +11.8   0.0   0.0   85.7   8    9 
 37. Georgia               SEC   17-11  19-12   69.3 +21.6   0.0   0.0   69.4  10      
 46. Indiana               B10   17-11  18-13   50.5  +3.3   0.0   0.0   50.7  12p     
 47. Xavier                BE    18-10  21-10   50.2  -1.9   0.0   0.0   51.3  12p  11p
 48. Texas                 SEC   16-12  18-13   49.9  -6.4   0.0   0.0   50.1       11 
 49. Baylor                B12   16-12  18-13   48.3 -12.1   0.0   0.0   48.7       10 
 59. Wake Forest           ACC   19-9   21-10   26.0 -11.0   0.0   0.0   26.5          
 67. Pittsburgh            ACC   16-12  18-13   12.5 -18.9   0.0   0.0   13.3          

Indiana slipped into the seedings again, something that seemed very unlikely just a few weeks ago. The Hoosiers topped Penn State to add to their recent wins over Michigan State and Purdue. And Xavier held on as the Last Team In; they face Creighton Saturday.

Baylor dropped out but the Bears—who lost at Cincinnati Tuesday, 69-67—are still in the First Four Out. They have Oklahoma State, TCU, and Houston left before the Big Twelve tournament. 

And the ACC took a hit with Wake Forest and Pittsburgh both tumbling. The Deacons fell to Virginia at home and dropped outside the bubble proper, while Pittsburgh lost at home to Georgia Tech, going from unlikely odds (but possible at around 30%) to very low. The Panthers are now showing a 1 in 8 chance of making the tournament; they face Louisville next, then NC State and Boston College, and will need a good showing in the ACC tournament. Only three ACC teams—Duke, Clemson, and Louisville—are projected to make the tournament, though SMU and North Carolina are on the bubble.

2024-2024 Week 16: upsets rock 2-3 seed Big Ten, SEC teams; Final Four nearly settled already

Getting close to Selection Sunday (3 weeks away!) and the 1-seeds are almost set: Auburn, Florida, Duke, and either Tennessee or Alabama, is your most likely lineup. The Tigers had a few close calls at home against Arkansas and Georgia but won as always. The Gators beat Oklahoma and LSU. The Blue Devils topped Virginia then blew out Illinois, 110-67. And the Vols beat Vanderbilt and Texas A&M while the Tide lost to Missouri before beating Kentucky. Note that #1 Auburn has played all the rest of the top 5, losing to Duke and Florida while beating Tennessee and Alabama, with one game vs. the Tide remaining. 

                                    Record     At-lg   Dance Chance     Total
Rank Team                 Conf   Curr   Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  %Odds seed prev
  1. Auburn                SEC   25-2   29-2   100.0   0.0  99.2  +0.2  100.0   1    1 
  2. Florida               SEC   24-3   27-4   100.0   0.0  89.0  +1.8  100.0   1    1 
  3. Duke                  ACC   24-3   28-3   100.0  +0.1  82.6  +9.6  100.0   1    1 
  4. Tennessee             SEC   22-5   26-5   100.0  +0.1  58.5  +5.2  100.0   1    2 
  5. Alabama               SEC   22-5   24-7   >99.9   0.0  46.3 -12.8  >99.9   2    1 
  6. Houston               B12   23-4   27-4   >99.9   0.0  15.2  +3.4  >99.9   2    2 
  7. Missouri              SEC   20-7   24-7   >99.9   0.0   0.8  -0.1  >99.9   2    3 

On Saturday Tennessee hosts Alabama in a very important game for 1-seed consideration. The Tide really controls their 1-seed destiny as they play Florida and Auburn in the last week. Houston is the only other strong candidate after beating Iowa State 68-59 on Saturday; if the Cougars win out and win the Big Twelve tournament it will be hard to keep them a 2-seed, but anything else favors three SEC teams. Missouri isn't really one of those despite their 2-seed; the Tigers beat Alabama 110-98 but fell to Arkansas days later.

The Big Ten has probably the best conference race, with at least the five teams below in the hunt. Wisconsin took the "lead" mid-week after beating Illinois 95-74, but then they lost at home to Oregon in overtime. That allowed Michigan State to reclaim leader status with an incredible week of work, beating Purdue at home and Michigan 75-62 on the road. The Boilermakers had an especially bad week as they lost to Indiana on Sunday, making it four losses in a row. Amid all the carnage Maryland quietly rose to the top of the 3-seed line with high-margin home wins over Iowa (101-75) and USC (88-71).

                                    Record     At-lg   Dance Chance     Total
Rank Team                 Conf   Curr   Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  %Odds seed prev
  8. Michigan St.          B10   22-5   25-6   >99.9  +1.7   0.8  +0.5  >99.9   2    4 
  9. Maryland              B10   21-6   25-7   >99.9  +0.1   1.3  -0.4  >99.9   3    3 
 10. Texas A&M             SEC   20-7   22-9   >99.9   0.0   0.1  -2.4  >99.9   3    2 
 11. Kentucky              SEC   18-9   20-11  >99.9  +0.1   5.6  -0.6  >99.9   3    3 
 12. Michigan              B10   20-6   24-7   >99.9   0.0   0.3  -1.9  >99.9   3    2 
 13. Wisconsin             B10   21-6   24-7   >99.9  +0.4   0.2  -0.5  >99.9   4    4 
 14. Purdue                B10   19-9   21-10   99.8   0.0  <0.1  -0.8   99.8   4    3 

The two SEC teams on the 3-line both lost last week, too: Texas A&M lost to Mississippi State 70-54 before losing to Tennessee 77-69 at home. Kentucky beat Vandy before losing at Alabama. The Wildcats still have a shot at a 1-seed due to big wins, but their losses are adding up and odds dwindling.

Most of the rest of the Big Twelve contenders are below in the 4-5 area. Iowa State's loss to Houston wasn't terrible and they hold their 4-seed. Texas Tech doesn't hold theirs after losing to TCU last Tuesday. Arizona beat Baylor on the road but fell to BYU at home, 96-95 on Saturday. Oddly, the Wildcats moved up a seed, as did Kansas despite also losing to BYU—and badly (91-57)—before taking it out on Oklahoma State 96-64. 

                                    Record     At-lg   Dance Chance     Total
Rank Team                 Conf   Curr   Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  %Odds seed prev
 15. Iowa St.              B12   21-6   25-6    99.8  +0.3   0.1  -0.7   99.9   4    4 
 16. St. John's            BE    24-4   26-5    99.6  +3.9  <0.1   0.0   99.7   4    5 
 17. Texas Tech            B12   21-6   23-8    99.6  +1.5  <0.1   0.0   99.6   5    4 
 18. UCLA                  B10   20-8   22-9    98.2  +1.4   0.0  -0.1   98.3   5    5 
 19. Arizona               B12   18-9   20-11   96.0  +4.0   0.0  -0.1   96.0   5    6 
 20. Kansas                B12   18-9   21-10   95.9  +1.4   0.0  -0.1   95.9   5    6 
 21. Mississippi           SEC   19-8   20-11   95.7  +0.8   0.0   0.0   95.7   6    5 
 22. Clemson               ACC   22-5   26-5    94.6  +7.8   0.0   0.0   94.7   6    6 

St. John's is running away with the Big East and is nearing 100% status. UCLA managed to lose at home vs. Minnesota but held their 5-seed. Mississippi didn't, slipping to the top 6-seed after two losses (Mississippi State and Vanderbilt). And Clemson kept racking up unimpressive ACC wins (ok, beating SMU on the road is a good win).

Two more Big Ten teams below, going in opposite directions as Oregon beat Wisconsin on the road in overtime to forge a 4-game win streak (after their 5-game losing streak). Illinois on the other hand got beat badly by the Badgers (21 points) then met Duke in Madison Square Garden and lost by 43! Earlier in the season a week like that would have dropped a team 5 seeds but the Illini only fell one. Mississippi State beat Texas A&M but then lost to Oklahoma; they still gained 5.7% at-large odds but remain a 7-seed. Marquette shed some odds due to their loss to Villanova, their 5th in conference play.

                                    Record     At-lg   Dance Chance     Total
Rank Team                 Conf   Curr   Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  %Odds seed prev
 23. Oregon                B10   20-8   23-8    93.4  +8.9   0.0   0.0   93.4   6    7 
 24. Illinois              B10   17-11  19-12   92.3  -4.0   0.0  -0.2   92.3   6    5 
 25. Mississippi St.       SEC   19-8   21-10   91.9  +5.7   0.0   0.0   91.9   7    7 
 26. Marquette             BE    20-7   23-8    91.7  -1.9   0.0   0.0   92.0   7    6 
 27. Saint Mary's          WCC   25-4   27-4    90.3  +9.2   0.0   0.0   90.8   7    7 
 28. Gonzaga               WCC   21-8   23-8    83.1  -2.6   0.0   0.0   83.7   7    7 
 29. New Mexico            MWC   22-5   25-6    80.2  +2.5   0.0   0.0   81.2   8    8 
 30. BYU                   B12   19-8   22-9    79.5 +20.5   0.0   0.0   79.6   8   10 
 31. Utah St.              MWC   24-4   26-5    79.0 +12.4   0.0   0.0   79.7   8   10 

Saint Mary's takes over as "leader" in the WCC in our seedings from Gonzaga, which is appropriate since they've beaten the Bulldogs twice now after Saturday's win in Spokane. Gonzaga is starting to look like a team that beats up on weak opponents but can't win the big ones. Though both teams are 7-seeds there is a fairly wide gap between them as seed by their at-large odds (90.3% to 83.1%). Another two-team conference race is happening in the Mountain West and New Mexico hangs on to the lead there despite their loss to Boise State last Wednesday. The Lobos beat Utah State twice this year but the Aggies are up a solid 12.5% this week after beating San Jose State 105-57 Wednesday and topping San Diego State Saturday. They and BYU both move up from 10-seeds to 8-seeds, with the Cougars' odds up a staggering 20.5% after a killer week—beating Kansas by 34 and Arizona by 1 in Tucson.

Louisville, like Clemson, gets little respect from the Dance Chance despite a gaudy ACC record (both are 14-2). Wins over the ACC teams just don't move the needle it seems. The Cards keep winning and remain an 8-seed, which is not far from where the Bracket Matrix has them (7-seed). Memphis is also a 7-seed on BracketMatrix and an 8-seed here; both teams are gaining odds, as SEC teams Vanderbilt (lost to UK but beat Ole Miss) and especially Arkansas, who jumps off the bubble after upsetting Missouri 92-85. The Razorbacks also played very well at Auburn losing 67-60.

                                    Record     At-lg   Dance Chance     Total
Rank Team                 Conf   Curr   Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  %Odds seed prev
 32. Louisville            ACC   21-6   25-6    78.6  +3.9   0.0   0.0   78.8   8    8 
 33. Memphis               Amer  22-5   26-5    78.4  +5.5   0.0   0.0   79.6   9    8 
 34. Vanderbilt            SEC   18-9   19-12   73.8  +4.6   0.0   0.0   73.8   9    9 
 35. Creighton             BE    19-8   22-9    72.2  +2.2   0.0   0.0   72.8   9    9 
 36. Arkansas              SEC   16-11  19-12   68.4 +11.9   0.0   0.0   68.5   9   11p
 37. Connecticut           BE    18-9   22-9    67.3  -0.4   0.0   0.0   67.8  10    9 
 38. UC San Diego          BW    24-4   28-4    64.6  +6.4   0.0   0.0   69.8  10   11 
 39. Baylor                B12   16-11  19-12   60.4 -11.9   0.0   0.0   60.6  10    9 

Creighton is now our #2 Big East teams after Connecticut lost to St. John's. Baylor lost a good chunk of odds after dropping two games, to Arizona (not bad) and Colorado (bad). UC San Diego is looking more and more like an at-large bid but the jury is still out; Utah State is probably their best win of the year.

San Diego State (who beat the Tritons in the season opener) lost to Utah State just last Saturday. But a prior 83-60 win over Fresno State seems to have tipped the balance toward the Aztecs who move up a seed. A bit strange, but other teams fell below them, like Nebraska who lost to Penn State, and Texas who fell to 11-16 South Carolina 84-69. VCU got a big 70-54 win over George Mason and is hoping to climb their way out of the bubble in case they lose in the Atlantic 10 tournament. 

                                    Record     At-lg   Dance Chance     Total
Rank Team                 Conf   Curr   Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  %Odds seed prev
 40. San Diego St.         MWC   18-7   22-7    59.1  +1.7   0.0   0.0   60.0  10   11 
 41. Nebraska              B10   17-10  19-12   58.9  -4.6   0.0   0.0   59.0  11   10 
 42. VCU                   A10   22-5   26-5    57.2  +6.7   0.0   0.0   62.9  11   11 
 43. Texas                 SEC   16-11  18-13   56.3  -9.9   0.0   0.0   56.4  11   10 
 44. Boise St.             MWC   19-8   23-8    52.5 +10.2   0.0   0.0   53.3  11p     
 45. Xavier                BE    18-10  21-10   52.1  +3.1   0.0   0.0   52.6  11p  12p
 46. Ohio St.              B10   15-13  18-13   52.0 -21.2   0.0   0.0   52.2  12p   8 
 47. West Virginia         B12   16-11  19-12   51.3  +1.2   0.0   0.0   51.4  12p  11p

Boise State is the big winner here, the only team that joins the seedings from a week ago. The Broncos beat New Mexico and Nevada and hope the Selection Committee is willing to take a few more Mountain West teams on the play-in line like last year. The biggest loser? Ohio State, last week an 8-seed, fell 4 seeds after losing to Northwestern at home 70-49 and then to UCLA. What's keeping them in at 15-13? Wins over Texas, Kentucky, Purdue, and Maryland—and no bad losses, plus a reasonable remaining schedule. Xavier isn't in many other brackets but the Musketeers are on a 4-game win streak and a win over Creighton Saturday would make other Bracketologists pay attention. West Virginia is our Last Team In so the Big Twelve tournament probably determines their fate.

The lower bubble, or First Eight Out. Georgia is the only team that drops out, and just barely, from a 12-seed play-in to the First Four Out after a competitive game at Auburn. This is very good news for Oklahoma, our First Team Out. The Sooners have been borderline all year, at 13-0 and still now at 17-10. Their big win over Mississippi State reversed their momentum, breaking a 5-game losing streak. With Georgia fading, Oklahoma is SEC team #13 which sounds a lot better than SEC team #14. Drake keeps marching upward, eyeing an at-large in case of a Missouri Valley tournament loss, but with only two games left the Bulldogs are going to be borderline at best. 

                                    Record     At-lg   Dance Chance     Total
Rank Team                 Conf   Curr   Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  %Odds seed prev
 48. Oklahoma              SEC   17-10  17-14   49.7  +7.1   0.0   0.0   49.8          
 49. Drake                 MVC   25-3   27-3    47.7  +5.9   0.0   0.0   54.9  12   12 
 50. Georgia               SEC   16-11  18-13   47.7  +0.7   0.0   0.0   47.8       12p
 51. Indiana               B10   16-11  18-13   47.2 +17.3   0.0   0.0   47.3          
 52. SMU                   ACC   20-7   24-7    43.1  -2.5   0.0   0.0   43.5          
 53. Santa Clara           WCC   19-10  20-11   40.4  +6.2   0.0   0.0   41.7          
 54. UC Irvine             BW    23-5   27-5    39.7  -4.0   0.0   0.0   44.9          
 55. North Carolina        ACC   17-11  20-12   39.5  +4.6   0.0   0.0   39.8          

Indiana is the big news below the waterline. The Hoosiers were left for dead a few weeks ago with a lame duck coach; since then they've beaten both Michigan State and Purdue, and have a reasonable shot at winning out. Just this week they gain 17%, and that includes losing at home to UCLA; looks like a win over Purdue outranks that. SMU and North Carolina are here from the ACC; SMU's record is good but they have few good wins. North Carolina's record is bad and they have few good wins. The Tar Heels should go 3-0 before meeting Duke at home, a game which could loft them into the seedings. SMU ought to win out. Santa Clara is another team no one is giving any props, but we have them at 40% odds for an at-large! The WCC doesn't get much respect though, so no one cares. And it's true, 19-10 from the WCC wouldn't catch my eye either, but they're #52 in the NET rankings and we have them #53 here. The Broncos have a shot at sweeping Gonzaga on Tuesday and probably need to win that one to be in real consideration. UC Irvine is another mid-major longshot, but at least they are 23-5; lack of big wins holds them back, too.

Here's the ten teams just below the "proper" bubble. ACC teams Wake Forest and Pittsburgh are here; most people have Wake higher due to their 11-5 ACC record but the Selection Committee is pretty adamant that conference record holds little weight. The Deacs lost to NC State on Saturday which put them further in limbo, while Pitt lost over 10% by losing to Notre Dame the same day. The good news is that the ACC tournament is ripe with mediocre teams to pad their win-loss record if they need a few wins to get in; the bad news is that there is little chance of winning the four games required to get an auto-bid, especially with Duke in the mix. Colorado State makes a solid move up here after beating Nevada and UNLV, and they actually move ahead of SDSU in conference standings. The Rams lack big non-conference wins though. Same thing with San Francisco, who is 22-7 from the WCC but we rate below Santa Clara (like the NET does).

                                    Record     At-lg   Dance Chance     Total
Rank Team                 Conf   Curr   Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  %Odds seed prev
 56. Wake Forest           ACC   19-8   22-9    37.0  -3.5   0.0   0.0   37.2          
 57. San Francisco         WCC   22-7   22-9    34.0  +3.4   0.0   0.0   35.0          
 58. Colorado St.          MWC   18-9   20-11   32.1 +11.0   0.0   0.0   32.9          
 59. Pittsburgh            ACC   16-11  19-12   31.4 -10.7   0.0   0.0   31.7          
 60. Cincinnati            B12   16-11  18-13   30.9  +2.0   0.0   0.0   31.1          
 61. Liberty               CUSA  22-5   26-5    24.9  +0.5   0.0   0.0   50.7  12   12 
 62. Villanova             BE    16-12  19-12   20.7  +5.7   0.0   0.0   21.4          
 63. North Texas           Amer  20-6   24-6    19.5  +3.6   0.0   0.0   22.1          
 64. George Mason          A10   21-6   25-6    18.7  -2.5   0.0   0.0   24.6          
 65. Dayton                A10   18-9   21-10   17.8  -5.4   0.0   0.0   21.6          

Not much to say about the others as only the Major conference teams have the opportunity needed to move up much. Cincinnati gets a shot at Houston on Saturday, while Villanova just beat Marquette and it didn't help all that much. North Texas and Liberty should both win out but it won't help much. And George Mason just lost to VCU, which was their chance to gain some at-large respect; instead they are about tied with Dayton, who lost to Loyola Chicago but does play VCU in the final game. Too little, too late, though: both teams almost certainly need to win the Atlantic 10 tournament to get in.

Week 15 2024-2025: SEC still dominant; Michigan leads Big Ten

The SEC still rules. Seven of the top ten teams are from the SEC; the conference is almost certain to have three 1-seeds now; only Houston really stands in the way of that. Auburn, Florida, Duke, and either Alabama or Tennessee are the favorites.

                                      Record      At-lg   Dance Chance    Total
Rank Team                 Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg %Odds seed prev
  1. Auburn               SEC  23-2  28-3   29-2  100.0   0.0  99.0  +0.3 100.0   1    1 
  2. Florida              SEC  22-3  27-4   27-4  100.0   0.0  87.2  +7.5 100.0   1    1 
  3. Duke                 ACC  22-3  28-3   28-3  >99.9   0.0  73.0  +2.9 >99.9   1    1 
  4. Alabama              SEC  21-4  24-7   25-6  >99.9   0.0  59.1  +2.6 >99.9   1    2 
  5. Tennessee            SEC  21-5  25-6   26-5  >99.9   0.0  53.3 -11.7 >99.9   2    1 
  6. Houston              B12  21-4  26-5   27-4  >99.9  +0.1  11.8  +4.6 >99.9   2    2 
  7. Texas A&M            SEC  20-5  23-8   23-8  >99.9  +0.3   2.5  -0.9 >99.9   2    2 
  8. Michigan             B10  20-5  24-7   25-6   99.9  +1.6   2.2  +0.4 >99.9   2    3 

Houston topped both Baylor and Arizona to keep themselves in 1-seed contention. Also, Michigan took over the pole position in the Big Ten by beating Purdue and Ohio State. Texas A&M is probably stuck as a 2-seed considering they are 5th in line in the SEC.

That's probably the case for Missouri, too, unless they beat Alabama on Wednesday; but Kentucky has 6.2% odds, ahead of even Texas A&M. The Wildcats have wins over Duke, Gonzaga, Louisville, Florida, Texas A&M, and Tennessee twice. They get a shot at Alabama on Saturday, and Auburn in a few weeks.

                                      Record      At-lg   Dance Chance    Total
Rank Team                 Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg %Odds seed prev
  9. Missouri             SEC  19-6  23-8   24-7   99.9  +1.9   0.9  +0.4 >99.9   3    3 
 10. Kentucky             SEC  17-8  20-11  20-11  99.8  +1.7   6.2  +1.5  99.9   3    3 
 11. Purdue               B10  19-7  22-9   22-9   99.8   0.0   0.9  -5.5  99.9   3    2 
 12. Maryland             B10  20-6  25-7   25-7   99.8  +1.9   1.7  +0.6  99.8   3    3 
 13. Wisconsin            B10  20-5  24-7   25-6   99.5  +4.1   0.7  +0.4  99.5   4    5 
 14. Iowa St.             B12  20-5  24-7   25-6   99.5  +2.5   0.8  -0.1  99.5   4    4 
 15. Michigan St.         B10  20-5  23-8   24-7   98.2  +2.0   0.3  -0.6  98.2   4    4 
 16. Texas Tech           B12  20-5  24-7   24-7   98.1  +4.8   0.1   0.0  98.2   4    6 

But Purdue pretty much wrecked their 1-seed odds—down from 6.4% to 0.9%—after losses to Michigan and Wisconsin. The Badgers are one of many Big Ten teams striving for a 2-seed—along with Michigan, Purdue, Maryland and Michigan State—but not realistically a 1-seed. The Big Twelve's 2-seed contenders include Iowa State and Texas Tech; the Cyclones face Houston Saturday.

Two more Big Tens top the 5-seed line. Illinois beat UCLA but then lost to Michigan State at home, and that sapped most of their remaining 1-seed consideration. St. John's lost to Villanova last Wednesday but a win over Creighton kept them ahead of Marquette in the Big East.

                                      Record      At-lg   Dance Chance    Total
Rank Team                 Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg %Odds seed prev
 17. UCLA                 B10  19-7  22-9   23-8   96.8  +2.5  <0.1   0.0  96.9   5    5 
 18. Illinois             B10  17-9  20-11  19-12  96.3   0.0   0.2  -1.9  96.4   5    4 
 19. St. John's           BE   22-4  26-5   26-5   95.7  +2.0   0.0  -0.1  96.4   5    5 
 20. Mississippi          SEC  19-7  21-10  20-11  94.9  -1.1   0.0  -0.2  95.0   5    4 
 21. Kansas               B12  17-8  21-10  22-9   94.5  +0.9  <0.1   0.0  94.7   6    6 
 22. Marquette            BE   19-6  23-8   24-7   93.6  +1.8   0.0  -0.1  94.2   6    6 
 23. Arizona              B12  17-8  21-10  21-10  92.0  -2.2  <0.1   0.0  92.2   6    5 
 24. Clemson              ACC  21-5  25-6   25-6   86.8 +10.8   0.0   0.0  87.7   6    7 

Arizona was on a roll until last week where they lost to both K-State and Houston; Kansas lost at Utah and has now dropped 4 of their last 7 games. In the ACC, Clemson had one of the better weeks of any team, beating North Carolina by 20 and FSU by 26.

Mississippi State topped Mississippi a few days after losing to Florida and fell a notch (as did Ole Miss). In the WCC both Gonzaga and St. Mary's won twice; the Zags stayed ahead in our projection after beating Pepperdine by 52 points! The teams rematch on Saturday; the Gaels won the first time around, at Gonzaga. 

                                      Record      At-lg   Dance Chance    Total
Rank Team                 Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg %Odds seed prev
 25. Mississippi St.      SEC  18-7  21-10  21-10  86.2  +4.0   0.0  -0.1  86.4   7    6 
 26. Gonzaga              WCC  20-7  23-8   24-7   85.7  +5.4   0.0   0.0  88.3   7    7 
 27. Oregon               B10  18-8  21-10  22-9   84.5  +9.1   0.0   0.0  84.7   7    8 
 28. Saint Mary's         WCC  23-4  26-5   26-5   81.1  +6.7   0.0   0.0  83.1   7    8 
 29. New Mexico           MWC  22-4  25-6   25-6   77.7  +5.3   0.0   0.0  81.3   8    8 
 30. Louisville           ACC  20-6  24-7   25-6   74.7  +6.5   0.0   0.0  75.9   8    9 
 31. Ohio St.             B10  15-11 18-13  19-12  73.2  -5.0   0.0   0.0  73.6   8    7 
 32. Memphis              Amer 21-5  25-6   26-5   72.9  -0.7   0.0   0.0  77.6   8    8 

Oregon broke their 5-game skid, beating Northwestern and Rutgers, while Ohio State split games with Washington and Michigan. The Ducks and Buckeyes swapped seedings. New Mexico solidified their hold on the Mountain West—and an at-large bid, if needed—by beating Utah State 82-79, their 8th win in a row. Memphis, on the other hand, took a hit with an overtime loss at Wichita State; it barely impacted their odds. 

Barely any movement in seeds 9 and 10; Creighton fell from a 7-seed following losses to St. John's and  UConn; the Huskies balanced out the upset win with an overtime loss at Seton Hall and held steady. Utah State also held steady—gaining about 4% even—despite their loss to New Mexico.

                                      Record      At-lg   Dance Chance    Total
Rank Team                 Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg %Odds seed prev
 33. Baylor               B12  16-9  20-11  20-11  72.3  +4.0   0.0   0.0  72.9   9    9 
 34. Creighton            BE   18-8  22-9   22-9   70.0  -5.7   0.0   0.0  71.9   9    7 
 35. Vanderbilt           SEC  17-8  19-12  19-12  69.2   0.0   0.0   0.0  69.5   9    9 
 36. Connecticut          BE   17-8  21-10  22-9   67.7  -1.4   0.0   0.0  69.2   9    9 
 37. Utah St.             MWC  22-4  26-5   26-5   66.6  +3.9   0.0   0.0  69.9  10   10 
 38. Texas                SEC  16-10 19-12  19-12  66.2  +2.4   0.0   0.0  66.5  10   10 
 39. Nebraska             B10  17-9  20-11  19-12  63.5  +2.7   0.0   0.0  63.8  10   10 

Vanderbilt lost twice but still held their seed, and their odds didn't change at all. The losses? 80-68 to Auburn, and 81-76 at Tennessee. Texas lost 103-80 at home to Alabama, but their 82-78 upset of Kentucky more than balanced that out. 

The Bubble: BYU was the biggest percentage gainer in the country this week; the Cougars beat West Virginia on the road and a red-hot Kansas State team 80-65 at home, vaulting them back into the seedings. Xavier joined them, but in a more tepid fashion as as 12-seed play-in team. The Musketeers just took care of business with two Big East wins. The San Diego teams held steady, with UC San Diego winning their 7th straight and SDSU getting two more MWC wins. 

                                      Record      At-lg   Dance Chance    Total
Rank Team                 Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg %Odds seed prev
 40. BYU                  B12  17-8  20-11  20-11  59.0 +11.8   0.0   0.0  59.6  10      
 41. UC San Diego         BW   22-4  28-4   28-4   58.2  +2.8   0.0   0.0  67.0  11   11 
 42. San Diego St.        MWC  17-6  21-8   22-7   57.4  +7.9   0.0   0.0  60.2  11   11p
 43. Arkansas             SEC  15-10 18-13  18-13  56.5  +1.6   0.0   0.0  56.9  11p  11p
 44. VCU                  A10  20-5  25-6   26-5   50.5  +6.1   0.0   0.0  60.4  11   12 
 45. West Virginia        B12  15-10 18-13  19-12  50.1  -5.8   0.0   0.0  50.8  11p  11p
 46. Xavier               BE   16-10 20-11  21-10  49.0  +7.0   0.0   0.0  50.8  12p     
 47. Georgia              SEC  16-10 18-13  18-13  47.0 -14.3   0.0   0.0  47.4  12p  10 

Arkansas and Georgia helped the SEC hold 13 teams this week, down by 1 and with the Bulldogs teetering on the edge after two more losses. Getting beat by Texas A&M and Missouri, both potential 2-seeds, is not a terrible thing but it puts Georgia in a bad place record-wise, projected to be 18-13 which is pretty borderline. The Razorbacks also fell to the Aggies. VCU beat Dayton and is widening their "lead" in the Atlantic 10 (where they are 2nd place in the standings).

Oklahoma is the reason the SEC is down a team. The Sooners looked like they were turning a corner not long ago, but lost twice last week. The 24-point loss at Missouri was not a killer but the 3-point loss to LSU, at home, was. It was the easiest game left on their schedule and they needed it. Every team left on their slate is seeded above them so they still have opportunity; they control their own destiny but it's a rough road. 

                                      Record      At-lg   Dance Chance    Total
Rank Team                 Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg %Odds seed prev
 48. SMU                  ACC  19-6  23-8   25-6   45.6  -2.0   0.0   0.0  47.2          
 49. UC Irvine            BW   22-4  27-5   28-4   43.7  +2.9   0.0   0.0  50.8          
 50. Oklahoma             SEC  16-9  18-13  16-15  42.6 -15.9   0.0   0.0  42.9       11 
 51. Boise St.            MWC  17-8  21-10  23-8   42.3  -1.0   0.0   0.0  45.2          
 52. Pittsburgh           ACC  15-10 19-12  20-11  42.1  -6.4   0.0   0.0  43.4       11p
 53. Drake                MVC  23-3  26-4   26-4   41.8  +0.2   0.0   0.0  53.8  12   12 
 54. Wake Forest          ACC  19-7  22-9   23-8   40.5  +4.6   0.0   0.0  41.4          
 55. North Carolina       ACC  15-11 19-13  20-12  34.9  -5.5   0.0   0.0  36.1          

Most of the rest of the First-Second Four Out are from the ACC, who has 3 teams in right now but should end up with 4 or 5. SMU beat Pittsburgh but fell at home to Wake Forest. The Deacs were coming off a home loss to Florida State, while Pitt recovered to beat Miami but understandably fell off the play-in line. North Carolina has 11 losses but 5 of their last 6 games should be wins so odds are they'll hit 20 wins before Selection Sunday. Drake took a hit by losing at home to Bradley, but they are still in the driver's seat in the Missouri Valley.

Indiana got a great win over Michigan State to start the week but couldn't hold home court vs. UCLA. Still, the Hoosiers put their name back in the at-large hat at nearly 30%. Oregon State started last week in a terrible fashion, losing to lowly Portland, while Kansas State increased their win streak to six games—topping Arizona 73-70—before falling at BYU 80-65. The Wildcats were still up slightly, to 8.2%. 

                                      Record      At-lg   Dance Chance    Total
Rank Team                 Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg %Odds seed prev
 58. Indiana              B10  15-11 17-14  17-14  29.9 +10.6   0.0   0.0  30.4          
 64. Bradley              MVC  21-6  24-7   25-6   19.6  +9.7   0.0   0.0  29.6          
 69. Oregon St.           WCC  18-9  20-11  21-10   9.4 -12.6   0.0   0.0  12.8          
 71. Kansas St.           B12  13-12 16-15  15-16   8.2  +3.5   0.0   0.0   8.9          
 75. UCF                  B12  13-12 16-15  17-14   6.1  -7.3   0.0   0.0   6.5          
 79. Northwestern         B10  13-13 15-16  15-16   3.6  -7.7   0.0   0.0   4.2          
 82. Stanford             ACC  16-10 18-13  18-13   1.5  -6.1   0.0   0.0   2.5          
 85. Penn St.             B10  13-13 15-16  15-16   1.4  -12.8  0.0   0.0   2.0          

UCF, Northwestern, and Stanford are all major-conference teams whose at-large dreams are dying. UCF lost their sixth game in a row on Saturday, and still have a 6.1% chance probably due to playing Oklahoma State twice yet. Northwestern lost their 10th game in 13 tries and are down to 3.6% (an opportunity play, as the Wildcats face UCLA and Maryland at the end). Stanford lost twice, the worse by far being the 106-70 drubbing at Duke. Finally, Penn State continues their collapse, down from 14.2% to just 1.4% after losing their 11th game in 12 tries. Thei Lions' only Big Ten wins are Rutgers—and Purdue!

What is going on with Kansas State...? They're playing like #1

After nearly touching the 0.0% mark in the Dance Chance, the Wildcats have turned into a great team in the last three weeks

Kansas State's NCAA tournament hopes were all but gone a few weeks ago. Riding a six-game losing streak—and dropping 9 of 10—K-State was 7-11 overall. The the Wildcats snapped the losing streak with home wins over West Virginia and Oklahoma State; that was only marginally impressive, perhaps oreso for the 73-60 and 85-57 scores. 

But when they went on the road to Iowa State and came out with an 80-61 win, that was noteworthy. 

Most people (myself included) chalked it up to a terrible performance by the Cyclones following a heartbreaking overtime loss at Arizona.

K-State's next game was another road win, but only by 1 point and vs. Arizona State. Nothing to write home about.

And then they had another home stand, beating Kansas 81-73 and, just last night, topping Arizona 73-70.

That's four Quad 1 wins in a row...can the Wildcats be on their way to an NCAA bid?

Here's how their season has looked so far from the Dance Chance's perspective: 

Week    Rec     Odds
0	0-0	20.9
1	2-0	23.6
2	2-1	13.6
3	4-2	10.0
4	6-2	12.6
5	6-3	 7.4
6	6-3	 5.5
7	6-5	 1.2
8	6-5	 0.9
9	7-6	 0.7
10	7-8	 0.1
11	7-10 	<0.1
12	8-11 	 0.1
13     10-11	 1.7
14     12-11	 4.7
15     13-11    12.2

The Wildcats' odds peaked early at 2-0 and fell from there with each loss, practically hitting 0.0% at 7-10 before the West Virginia win. Since then their KenPom ranking has increased from #98 to #57, their Strength moved from #95 to #58.

But their tournament odds have barely budged and were just around 5.0% as of Sunday. The Arizona win will help, but it's hard to get unstuck once you're in the mud. They'll be higher but still only around 10% when I run the numbers Friday (update: 12.2%). Back where they were at 4-2 in late November.

Kansas State's remaining schedule isn't exceptionally tough but unfortunately four very winnable games—BYU, Utah, UCF, and Cincinnati—are all on the road and the Wildcats will be underdogs. Arizona State and Colorado at home should be wins. Iowa State at home is another loss.

Going 2-5 will put the Wildcats at 15-16 and needing to win the Big Twelve tournament.

But if they can pick up a few wins out of the four "winnable" road games, things change.

Kansas State is on a roll right now and even though it's just six games long, the wins seem significant after beating three arguably top 10 teams. The road teams on their schedule, over the last six games, have gone:

BYU     4-2   #35
Utah    2-4   #84
UCF     1-5   #51
Cincy   3-3   #56

And over the last 6 games their Strength rankings are BYU #35, Utah #84, UCF #51, and Cincinnati #56.

Kansas State, over the last 6 games, has been playing like the #1 team in the nation—ahead of Alabama, Auburn, and Florida. They're playing 16 points better, and 60 rungs higher than their total season average.

2025: last 6 games
rnk Team                     record    rating    chg   rnkChg
1.  Kansas St.                13-11    29.66    16.09   +60
2.  Alabama                   21-3     29.12     2.57   + 3
3.  Auburn                    22-2     29.08    -2.07   - 2
4.  Florida                   21-3     28.22     0.87   ---
5.  New Mexico                20-4     27.66     9.95   +30
6.  Tennessee                 20-5     27.54     1.13   ---
7.  Missouri                  17-6     26.71     6.17   +17
8.  UCLA                      18-7     26.43     5.39   +12
9.  Purdue                    19-6     26.17     2.62   + 3
10. Wisconsin                 19-5     25.82     3.83   + 8

So going 5-2, or even 7-0, is not out of the question. And ending up 18-13, or especially 20-11, puts them on the bubble.

Even three weeks ago I didn't think I'd be keeping a close eye on Kansas State, but here we are!

Week 14: Florida locked in, but Auburn still overall top seed

Who's number 1? Auburn, still, in both the AP poll and the Dance Chance projection. A single loss, even at home, doesn't topple the top team in all cases. The Tigers crushed Oklahoma 98-70 before they fell to Florida, 90-81; the Gator reached the mythical 100% status as a result and doubled their 1-seed odds from around 40% to near 80%. Speaking of 1-seeds, Tennessee joins the group after beating Missouri and beating Oklahoma by 18. Duke held their 1-seed despite the upset loss to Clemson and has a 70% (down from 87%) chance of holding it to Selection Sunday. That makes five teams with >50% for a 1-seed. The odd man out was Alabama, who drops to a 2-seed in a crowded battle for the 1-line. It's the Tide's future schedule that makes things uncertain: they play Auburn twice and Florida and Tennessee once each. This means they control their destiny for a 1-seed but it's a tough road. Incidentally, Auburn, Florida, and Tennessee are done playing each other, so the Tide really hold the lock and key to the SEC regular-season championship. They host Auburn this coming Saturday.

                                      Record      At-lg   Dance Chance    Total
Rank Team                 Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg %Odds seed prev
  1. Auburn               SEC  21-2  28-3   29-2  100.0   0.0  98.7  +0.3 100.0   1    1 
  2. Florida              SEC  20-3  26-5   27-4  100.0  +0.2  79.7 +39.7 100.0   1    2 
  3. Duke                 ACC  20-3  27-4   28-3  >99.9   0.0  70.1 -17.4 >99.9   1    1 
  4. Tennessee            SEC  20-4  25-6   27-4  >99.9   0.0  65.0 +12.2 >99.9   1    1 
  5. Alabama              SEC  20-3  24-7   25-6  >99.9   0.0  56.5  +0.2 >99.9   2    1 
  6. Purdue               B10  19-5  23-8   23-8   99.8  +1.0   6.4  -0.1  99.9   2    2 
  7. Houston              B12  19-4  25-6   27-4   99.8   0.0   7.2 -15.0  99.9   2    2 
  8. Texas A&M            SEC  18-5  22-9   23-8   99.6  +2.6   3.4  -0.7  99.6   2    3 

Does anyone else have a shot at a 1-seed? Hardly. Purdue and Houston have hope but they'll need to finish very strong and probably win their conference tournament. Houston was underwhelming against Oklahoma State (72-63) and Colorado (69-59), the easiest teams that were left on their slate, hence their much-diminished 1-seed odds. And after those two we have yet another SEC team, Texas A&M, who racked up two SEC road wins last week.

There's even more SEC on the 3- and 4-lines: Missouri was one of Texas A&M's victims, but only 67-64, and the Tigers also came within 4 points of beating Tennessee on the road. As a result the Tigers actually gained Dance Chance odds and moved up to a 3-seed from a 4. Kentucky split games with Mississippi (loss) and South Carolina (win) and held steady, but the loss drove their once-mighty 1-seed odd to less than 5% with Tennessee coming to town Tuesday. Speaking of Ole Miss, the UK win helped propel them back up to a borderline 4-seed. The rest of this area is dominated by the Big Ten, starting with Michigan, who takes over the revolving door of Big Ten #2 teams as the Wolverines escaped both Oregon and Indiana last week.

                                      Record      At-lg   Dance Chance    Total
Rank Team                 Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg %Odds seed prev
  9. Michigan             B10  18-5  23-8   24-7   98.3  +1.9   1.8  -1.7  98.5   3    4 
 10. Kentucky             SEC  16-7  20-11  20-11  98.1  +0.4   4.7  -4.1  98.1   3    3 
 11. Missouri             SEC  17-6  22-9   23-8   98.0  +2.6   0.5  -1.1  98.0   3    4 
 12. Maryland             B10  18-6  24-8   25-7   97.9  +0.9   1.1  -1.4  98.1   3    3 
 13. Iowa St.             B12  18-5  24-7   25-6   97.0  -0.3   0.9  -2.3  97.4   4    3 
 14. Illinois             B10  16-8  20-11  21-10  96.3  -1.7   2.1  -5.1  96.5   4    2 
 15. Michigan St.         B10  19-4  23-8   24-7   96.2  +1.8   0.9  -1.0  96.3   4    4 
 16. Mississippi          SEC  18-6  21-10  22-9   96.0  +9.7   0.2   0.0  96.0   4    6 

The other members of the crowded Big Ten pack here are Maryland (lost at Ohio State, beat Rutgers at home); Illinois (lost to Rutgers, beat Minnesota, both on the road); and Michigan State (lost at UCLA 63-61, beat Oregon at home). Not too hard to see why these Big Ten teams can't push to the higher seeds, is it? In fact, every team in this region lost 1-seed odds; in the last month, those odds tend to consolidate at the top and drain from every other team. Iowa State's 1-seed chances are now around 1% after a big loss (69-52) at Kansas. The Cyclones recovered to beat TCU 82-52, breaking a 3-game losing streak.

And there are more Big Ten teams just below. If the SEC is dominating the top 2 seeds, the Big Ten is killing it from 3-5. Wisconsin and UCLA are both 9-4 in conference. The Badgers never make the spotlight as they have beaten the teams their supposed to, and have lost in the Big Ten only to Michigan, Illinois, Maryland, and UCLA. They face Purdue in West Lafayette next. The Bruins lost their 4 games all in a row and since then are on a 7-0 run with Illinois next on Tuesday in Champaign. The Big Twelve is well-represented here, too. Arizona is on a tear lately, adding Texas Tech to a 6-game win streak and ending the Red Raiders' own 7-game streak. Kansas followed a great win over Iowa State with a crushing defeat at Kansas State, 81-73.

                                      Record      At-lg   Dance Chance    Total
Rank Team                 Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg %Odds seed prev
 17. Wisconsin            B10  19-5  24-7   23-8   95.4  +3.9   0.3  -0.3  95.5   5    5 
 18. UCLA                 B10  18-6  22-9   23-8   94.3  +7.6   0.1   0.0  94.4   5    6 
 19. Arizona              B12  17-6  22-9   22-9   94.2  +5.9   0.1   0.0  94.6   5    5 
 20. St. John's           BE   21-3  26-5   27-4   93.7  +8.1   0.1   0.0  95.6   5    6 
 21. Kansas               B12  16-7  22-9   23-8   93.6  -1.2   0.1  -1.2  93.9   6    4 
 22. Texas Tech           B12  18-5  24-7   24-7   93.3  +1.4  <0.1  -0.7  93.5   6    5 
 23. Marquette            BE   18-6  23-8   24-7   91.8  -1.4  <0.1  -0.2  93.0   6    5 
 24. Mississippi St.      SEC  17-6  21-10  19-12  82.2  +8.3  <0.1   0.0  82.3   6    8 

But the biggest news in the 5-6 lines is the rise of St. John's to take over as the top team in the Big East. The Red Storm beat Marquette and Connecticut last week, extending their win streak to 10 games. Marquette helped out by losing to Creighton, their third loss in a row—and Creighton's 9th win in a row. Something's gotta give when St. John's hosts the Blue Jays this coming Sunday. 

Like Creighton, Clemson rode a big upset to a 2-seed rise. The Tigers beat Duke 77-71 on Saturday following a 3-overtime upset home loss to Georgia Tech, so it could have been even more beneficial. In the WCC Gonzaga holds on to our top spot despite being 2 games behind St. Mary's. The Gaels didn't help their cause by losing at San Francisco, 65-64. 

                                      Record      At-lg   Dance Chance    Total
Rank Team                 Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg %Odds seed prev
 25. Gonzaga              WCC  18-7  23-8   24-7   80.3  -0.6   0.0   0.0  86.2   7    6 
 26. Ohio St.             B10  14-10 19-12  20-11  78.2  -0.6   0.0  -0.1  78.4   7    7 
 27. Clemson              ACC  19-5  24-7   25-6   76.0  +6.7   0.0   0.0  79.4   7    9 
 28. Creighton            BE   18-6  23-8   23-8   75.7  +7.4   0.0   0.0  77.6   7    9 
 29. Oregon               B10  16-8  20-11  22-9   75.4  -3.0   0.0   0.0  75.6   8    7 
 30. Saint Mary's         WCC  21-4  26-5   26-5   74.4  +0.3   0.0   0.0  78.3   8    8 
 31. Memphis              Amer 20-4  26-5   27-4   73.6  -1.0   0.0   0.0  81.3   8    8 
 32. New Mexico           MWC  20-4  25-6   26-5   72.4  +4.6   0.0   0.0  80.6   8    9 

More Big Ten above: Ohio State slips a bit after losing at Nebraska, 79-71, while Oregon has now lost five straight games. At 16-8 they're still an 8-seed thanks to a pre-season résumé that includes wins over Texas A&M, San Diego State, and Alabama. The Ducks last two losses were to Michigan and Michigan State, both on the road. The top teams in the American and Mountain West—Memphis and New Mexico—are both projected 8-seeds. The Tigers have won 7 straight conference games, the Lobos 6 in a row.

Just above bubble territory, Vanderbilt continues their surge with an 88-78 win over Texas (following a very-expected loss at Florida). The Longhorns also lost at home to Arkansas which dumped them from a 7- to a 10-seed, down 14% in tournament odds. Connecticut upset Marquette but the home loss to St. John's was more impactful and the Huskies fell 2 seeds. Louisville is favored in every game going forward—which means upset losses can hurt the Cards, who have won 12 of their last 13 games. Utah State faces Mountain West leader New Mexico on Sunday.

                                      Record      At-lg   Dance Chance    Total
Rank Team                 Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg %Odds seed prev
 33. Vanderbilt           SEC  17-6  19-12  18-13  69.2  +9.8   0.0   0.0  69.3   9   11p
 34. Connecticut          BE   16-7  21-10  22-9   69.1  -7.0   0.0   0.0  70.4   9    7 
 35. Baylor               B12  15-8  20-11  20-11  68.3  -3.1   0.0   0.0  68.8   9    8 
 36. Louisville           ACC  18-6  24-7   25-6   68.2  +2.6   0.0   0.0  70.6   9   10 
 37. Texas                SEC  15-9  19-12  18-13  63.8 -14.0   0.0  -0.1  63.9  10    7 
 38. Utah St.             MWC  21-3  26-5   26-5   62.7  -2.4   0.0   0.0  68.3  10   10 

The Bubble: Georgia split home games last week, beating LSU but losing to Mississippi State, giving them 6 losses in their last 8 games. Nebraska surges back into the seedings with 4 straight wins (following 6 straight losses). Arkansas also joins, giving the SEC a ridiculous 14 teams in the tournament (expectation odds say 12 will make it). The Razorbacks beat Texas on the road and lost to Alabama by 4 points. Oklahoma is another SEC team trying to hold on. The Sooners lost twice last week, to 1-seeds Auburn and Tennessee (by 28 and 18 points). 

                                      Record      At-lg   Dance Chance    Total
Rank Team                 Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg %Odds seed prev
 39. Georgia              SEC  16-8  19-12  19-12  61.3  -0.9   0.0  -0.1  61.4  10   10 
 40. Nebraska             B10  16-8  19-12  18-13  60.8 +14.8   0.0   0.0  61.0  10      
 41. Oklahoma             SEC  16-7  19-12  18-13  58.5  -7.6   0.0   0.0  58.6  11    9 
 42. West Virginia        B12  15-8  19-12  20-11  55.9  -4.8   0.0   0.0  56.3  11p  11 
 43. UC San Diego         BW   20-4  27-5   28-4   55.4  +7.6   0.0   0.0  68.6  11   11 
 44. Arkansas             SEC  14-9  18-13  18-13  54.9  +7.6   0.0   0.0  55.0  11p     
 45. San Diego St.        MWC  15-6  20-9   21-8   49.5  -5.0   0.0   0.0  53.4  11p  11p
 46. Pittsburgh           ACC  14-9  20-11  20-11  48.5 -10.9   0.0   0.0  50.6  11p  11p

West Virginia is fighting to stay above water in the Big Twelve, as is Pittsburgh in the ACC. Both lost last week, Pitt twice in fact to Virginia (at home) and North Carolina (at UNC, by a point). In non-major conferences, two San Diego teams are on the bubble: San Diego State survived an upset at Colorado State to remain among the projected  Last Four In. UC San Diego won a huge Big West showdown, beating Cal-Irvine on the road 85-67 avenging their home loss to the Anteaters in January.

That loss to the Tritons hurt UC Irvine's at-large hopes but they're still 20-4, and both teams have a solid chance of winning out, meaning a Big West tournament runner-up is viable. VCU and Drake are conference leaders who might survive a conference tournament loss, but can't count on it. Boise State faces San Diego State on Saturday in a key Mountain West bubble-team battle.

                                      Record      At-lg   Dance Chance    Total
Rank Team                 Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg %Odds seed prev
 47. SMU                  ACC  18-5  23-8   26-5   47.6  +2.3   0.0   0.0  48.8          
 48. BYU                  B12  15-8  19-12  19-12  47.2 -15.4   0.0   0.0  47.6       10 
 49. VCU                  A10  19-5  25-6   26-5   44.4  -1.0   0.0   0.0  60.3  12   12 
 50. Boise St.            MWC  17-7  22-9   23-8   43.3  +3.9   0.0   0.0  45.7          
 51. Xavier               BE   14-10 19-12  21-10  42.0  -5.8   0.0   0.0  43.3       11p
 52. Drake                MVC  22-2  26-4   28-2   41.6  +0.9   0.0   0.0  69.3  12   12 
 53. UC Irvine            BW   20-4  27-5   28-4   40.8  -4.8   0.0   0.0  49.8          
 54. North Carolina       ACC  14-10 19-13  20-12  40.4  +2.7   0.0   0.0  41.3      

SMU at 18-5 and North Carolina at 14-10 have roughly the same outlook: outside looking in but within striking distance. UNC's 1-point win over Pitt at home was critical and the remaining schedule is favorable for the Tar Heels, who have several losses to top 25 teams (all but 3 or so), while SMU really lacks good wins. Falling out of the seedings this week are BYU, who lost to Arizona and Cincinnati (by 18), and Xavier who edged Georgetown by 5 and lost to Villanova.

Wake Forest is 10-3 in the ACC after road wins over Stanford and Cal and are just outside the Second Four Out. San Francisco's win over St. Mary's has the Dons back in at-large talk, but they really need beat Gonzaga on Thursday to put themselves in the actual discussion. Cincinnati seemed to be down for the count after a 4-game losing streak but wins over UCF and BYU doubled their odds in 7 days. And Villanova beat DePaul and Xavier to get back in double digits. They, too, need to follow through with an upset of St. John's on Wednesday to really get back in the mix.

                                      Record      At-lg   Dance Chance    Total
Rank Team                 Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg %Odds seed prev    
 55. Wake Forest          ACC  18-6  22-9   23-8   35.9  +9.5   0.0   0.0  36.6          
 57. San Francisco        WCC  20-6  22-9   22-9   27.1  +8.8   0.0   0.0  30.1          
 58. Cincinnati           B12  14-9  18-13  18-13  25.2 +12.8   0.0   0.0  25.6          
 68. Villanova            BE   14-10 18-13  18-13  14.6  +5.3   0.0   0.0  15.7          
 69. Penn St.             B10  13-11 16-15  16-15  14.2 -20.9   0.0   0.0  14.5          
 70. UCF                  B12  13-10 17-14  18-13  13.4 -14.1   0.0   0.0  13.8          
 72. Arkansas St.         SB   18-7  23-8   24-7   10.4 -10.2   0.0   0.0  52.1  13   12 
 82. Arizona St.          B12  12-11 15-16  13-18   3.6 -16.3   0.0   0.0   3.8          
103. St. Bonaventure      A10  17-8  20-11  20-11   0.1  -9.0   0.0   0.0   2.5          

The rest of the teams above had the opposite luck, though. Penn State's season has really stalled out, with 9 losses in 10 tries after a 12-2 start. Last week was their worst yet, down over 20% following a home loss to Minnesota and 78-54 loss to UCLA. 14.2% seems generous for a 3-10 Big Ten team, but other teams have bounced back from big skids. We'll see. UCF's odds were cut in half by losses to Cincinnati and Baylor, putting them at 4-8 in the Big Twelve. Arizona State, also in the Big Twelve, lost 16.3%—or over 4/5 of their roughly 20% from last week. The Sun Devils almost beat Kansas State but lost to Oklahoma State by 13.

The last two teams above aren't in a major conference so they have less opportunity for big wins. Arkansas State shouldn't need a bid as they are the best team in the Sun Belt. But last week's losses to Marshall and Kent State (in a non-conference game) pretty much sealed the deal; the Red Wolves will need to win the Sun Belt tournament. And St. Bonaventure had about the worst week in recent memory based on odds ratio, losing 9.0% of their previous 9.1%, or almost 99% of their chance for an auto-bid. What caused this? A 77-53 road loss to Loyola-Chicago and a 62-52 home loss to George Washington. They, too, will be dependent on winning the Atlantic 10 tournament to get in, but Arkansas State's odds are a bit stronger in that sense.

Auburn, Duke lose; New #1 should be...Auburn, no question

Auburn lost to Florida at home, but the Tigers should remain the #1 team. 

No team has done anything close to what Auburn has done this year in terms of big wins, and having a 2nd loss doesn't change that.

With Duke losing, there's no reason to put anyone else ahead of the Tigers.

It sounds like people are talking about putting Alabama at #1, Tennessee at #2, Auburn at #3? Pretty silly. Look at the résumés and tell me either of those teams comes close to Auburn.

The NET statistics tell the story: Auburn has 12 Quad 1 wins. Duke 5, Alabama 6, Tennessee 7.

Alabama and Tennessee have more losses, too. Tennessee lost by 30 points, and to Vanderbilt, and to Auburn. How can they possibly be ahead of Auburn?

The AP voters should keep things steady with Auburn at #1.

SEC: Three 1-seeds, 14 teams in tournament?

For the last month or two, the Dance Chance has been showing three SEC teams as 1-seeds with regularity. And every time I've said, ok, this won't last, the SEC will get two 1-seeds as one falls by the wayside and a strong non-SEC team will surge into the 1-line.

It hasn't happened; in fact, the SEC now has four very strong 1-seed candidates (Auburn, Alabama, Tennessee, Florida) and the other conferences have just one (Duke). 

Auburn is about as close to a lock for a 1-seed as you can get. Duke isn't that far behind, meaning it won't be an SEC sweep at least!

                                      Record      At-lg   Dance Chance    Total
Rank Team                 Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg %Odds seed prev
  1. Auburn               SEC  21-1  28-3   30-1  100.0   0.0  98.8  +0.4  100%   1    1 
  2. Duke                 ACC  20-2  28-3   29-2  >99.9   0.0  88.0  +0.5 >99.9   1    1 
  3. Alabama              SEC  19-3  24-7   25-6  >99.9   0.0  58.4  +2.1 >99.9   1    1 
  4. Tennessee            SEC  19-4  25-6   27-4  >99.9   0.0  58.6  +5.8 >99.9   1    1 
  5. Florida              SEC  19-3  25-6   26-5  >99.9  +0.1  44.8  +4.8 >99.9   2    2 
  6. Houston              B12  18-4  25-6   27-4   99.8   0.0  16.6  -5.6  99.8   2    2 
  7. Purdue               B10  18-5  23-8   23-8   99.7  +0.9  10.6  +4.1  99.8   2    2

The competition for the last two 1-seeds is primarily among Alabama, Tennessee and Florida, with only Houston and Purdue now looking like strong contenders from the other major conference. 

And the rest of the country is coming around to the "three SEC 1-seeds" point of view: in the Bracket Matrix, there are now three SEC 1-seeds and Florida is the top 2-seed (just as we have it). Joe Lunardi at ESPN gives his blessing to Auburn, Alabama, and Tennessee at this point. 

What changed? Nothing, really. The odds just played out as expected. The Bracket Matrix is largely made of bracket pickers who view the current state of affairs rather than project the season, so they were calling things as they looked at the time. The Dance Chance looks ahead, but even then it's an average of the possibilities. Normally, some teams with similar future odds diverge instead, and I figured one or two of the top SEC teams would hit a rough patch. It sort of happened with Tennessee but they recovered.

Instead it was Iowa State who hit a rough patch; they were a 1-seed in the Bracket Matrix but usually a 2- or 3-seed in the Dance Chance. Houston had a clear path to a 1-seed but they lost to Texas Tech at home and lack great wins. They're still in the running though. Purdue has surged lately but they'll need a really strong finish to be in position for a 1-seed.

The SEC tournament is guaranteed to give every SEC team, save one, a loss, and that will help push down at least four 1-seed contenders! So conference tournament season will boost the Big Ten and Big Twelve—as long as the right teams win! But in general, 1-seeds are very often conference tournament winners when it's really close, and the SEC can only have one of those.

It won't be a big shock if one conference gets three 1-seeds, as it's happened twice before: the Big East in 2009 and ACC in 2019. And now that there are only five major conferences, it's become a lot more likely than it was in the past. 

Not only is the SEC dominating the 1-seed race, but with Oklahoma exceeding our low expectations and Arkansas' recent push (beating Kentucky and Texas), there are 14 SEC teams in the latest Dance Chance projections. By the aggregate odds, however, the SEC should get 11.9 teams, so a couple of the teams that are above the cutline will probably not make it. Right now that would be Arkansas and Vanderbilt.

But a few weeks ago I was still saying a strong contender from the Big Ten or Big Twelve would push out the weaker SEC 1-seed contenders, and that hasn't happened yet. So we might see 14 SEC teams in the tournament—over 20% of the entire field!

Week 13: Bubble teams Oklahoma, New Mexico surge; Nebraska, Arkansas back from dead

A week ago Oklahoma was still trying to escape the bubble the Sooners had been trapped in all season, and New Mexico was fighting to be team #3 selected from the Mountain West. Nebraska and Arkansas were slogging through terrible January that saw both teams take six losses. All four teams may have turned a corner last week. But first, as usual I will start at the top.

Where we find—surprise!—Auburn and Duke, who just keep winning and solidifying their 1-seeds. The Tigers and Blue Devils are 8-0 and 11-0 in conference now, and even though things will get tougher, they didn't stumble like the other conference leaders did last week. Speaking of things getting tougher, Alabama is on top of the world right now at over 50% 1-seed odds, but they have yet to play any of the other top 4 SEC teams. The Tide's March opponents are Tennessee, Florida, Auburn. Talk about a back-loaded schedule! Speaking of Tennessee and Florida, as I predicted (thank you) Tennessee wiped the Gators out in Knoxville. It wasn't as bad as Florida's 30-point beatdown of the Vols in Gainesville, but it put Tennessee at a 1-seed—for now. The Gators fall to a 2-seed and lose a chunk of 1-seed odds, mostly picked up by Alabama since the Vols lost to Kentucky last week at home before the Florida rematch.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
  1. Auburn                 SEC  20-1  28-3   30-1  100.0   0.0  98.4  +0.9    1    1 
  2. Duke                   ACC  19-2  28-3   29-2  >99.9   0.0  87.5  +8.1    1    1 
  3. Alabama                SEC  19-3  24-7   25-6  >99.9  +0.1  56.3 +12.4    1    1 
  4. Tennessee              SEC  18-4  25-6   26-5   99.9  +0.1  52.8  +5.7    1    2 
  5. Houston                B12  17-4  25-6   27-4   99.8  +0.3  22.2  -0.1    2    2 
  6. Florida                SEC  18-3  25-6   26-5   99.8   0.0  40.0 -13.5    2    1 
  7. Purdue                 B10  17-5  23-8   23-8   98.8  +0.8   6.5  +0.3    2    2 
  8. Illinois               B10  15-7  21-10  22-9   98.0  +0.7   7.2  +1.2    2    3 

Houston could have nabbed that 1-seed—they had it on Thursday before their overtime home loss to Texas Tech spoiled things. The Cougars ended up almost dead even from last week's numbers, since so many other teams split their games. That even allowed Illinois to rebound from their overtime loss at Nebraska to move up to a 2-seed. Purdue held on to the Big Ten lead with two home wins including Michigan.

Kentucky was another team that 'split,' going 1-1 with a 78-73 win at Tennessee and a home loss to Arkansas. At first the week looked great for the Wildcats, but ended basically a wash, with their 1-seed odds dwindling further. But Iowa State's week was unequivocally bad, with losses to Arizona and Kansas State. They could have shrugged off the first one but the second, an 80-61 home defeat by a 10-11 team? The Cyclones' 1-seed odds dropped from over 18% to around 3%, and left Houston as the only Big Twelve team standing in the way of the SEC getting three 1-seeds. And Texas A&M had a rare 2-0 week and their odds rose with it; Missouri, too rose after thrashing Mississippi State 88-61 on the road. Those two face each other next Saturday, and Missouri travels to Tennessee prior.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
  9. Kentucky               SEC  15-6  21-10  21-10  97.7  +0.8   8.8  -2.1    3    3 
 10. Iowa St.               B12  17-4  24-7   25-6   97.3  -1.7   3.2 -15.1    3    2 
 11. Maryland               B10  17-5  25-7   25-7   97.0  +3.9   2.5  +1.6    3    4 
 12. Texas A&M              SEC  17-5  22-9   22-9   97.0  +3.4   4.1  +0.8    3    4 
 13. Michigan               B10  16-5  22-9   24-7   96.4  +1.9   3.5  +0.8    4    3 
 14. Missouri               SEC  17-4  23-8   25-6   95.4  +6.3   1.6  +1.0    4    5 
 15. Kansas                 B12  15-6  22-9   24-7   94.8  +0.9   1.3  +0.2    4    4 
 16. Michigan St.           B10  18-3  23-8   24-7   94.4  +0.2   1.9  -0.6    4    4 

The Big Ten got a shake-up at the very top, where Michigan State got their first conference loss at USC. In our pecking order, however, the Spartans are only 5th as their schedule gets much tougher from here while Maryland has now won four in a row and Michigan won twice (by 4 points and 3 points) to sit at 8-2, but still slipped a seed. Kansas barely survived UCF at home then blew a huge lead at Baylor—yet still somehow added to their 1-seed odds, probably because of Iowa State's debacle. The Jayhawks host the Cyclones tonight (Monday).

Marquette was yet another conference leader who slipped up, losing at home to UConn 77-69 in a game that was not nearly that close. The Golden Eagles are only a 5-seed now in our projection but as the top Big East team they'll probably get better consideration and the tournament could help. St. John's, the other co-leader, took over sole possession of first place in the standings by surviving a Providence upset push, 68-66, at home. Texas Tech of course improved their lot by beating Houston at Houston in overtime, their sixth win in a row. 

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 17. Marquette              BE   18-4  24-7   25-6   93.2  -1.7   0.3  -1.3    5    3 
 18. Texas Tech             B12  17-4  24-7   24-7   91.9 +13.5   0.8  +0.7    5    7 
 19. Wisconsin              B10  17-5  23-8   23-8   91.5  +1.4   0.6  -0.3    5    5 
 20. Arizona                B12  15-6  21-10  21-10  88.3  +9.1   0.1   0.0    5    6 
 21. UCLA                   B10  16-6  21-10  23-8   86.7  +9.3   0.1   0.0    6    7 
 22. Mississippi            SEC  16-6  20-11  21-10  86.3  +0.7   0.2  -0.6    6    5 
 23. St. John's             BE   19-3  25-6   27-4   85.6  +4.9   0.1   0.0    6    6 
 24. Gonzaga                WCC  16-7  23-8   24-7   80.9  -1.3   0.0   0.0    6    6 

Arizona has been on a tear since starting 4-5 and the overtime home win over Iowa State is arguably their first big win of the season. Former Pac-12 teammate UCLA, who beat the Wildcats weeks ago, won their 4th and 5th straight. And Gonzaga suffered very little by our numbers for their loss to St. Mary's, holding their 6-seed and remaining WCC favorites. Note the 'Zags continued lofty NET ranking of #12!

Ohio State was a big gainer in odds despite splitting road games vs. Penn State and Illinois. The 1-1 result was expected, while the 19-point win over the Nittany Lions exceeded expectations. Oregon, on the other hand, suffered their 2nd and 3rd loss in a row against UCLA and Nebraska, dropping them a seed. Texas and UConn both rose, the Huskies due to upsetting Marquette, the Longhorns due to their 31-point road beatdown of LSU. Prior to that they lost at Ole Miss, 72-69.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 25. Ohio St.               B10  13-9  19-12  21-10  78.8 +12.4  <0.1   0.0    7    9 
 26. Oregon                 B10  16-6  21-10  22-9   78.4  -6.7   0.0  -0.1    7    6 
 27. Texas                  SEC  15-7  20-11  20-11  77.8  +9.9  <0.1   0.0    7    8 
 28. Connecticut            BE   16-6  22-9   22-9   76.1  +9.2   0.0   0.0    7    9 
 29. Memphis                Amer 18-4  26-5   27-4   74.6  +1.5   0.0   0.0    8    8 
 30. Saint Mary's           WCC  20-3  26-5   27-4   74.1  +9.8   0.0   0.0    8   10 
 31. Mississippi St.        SEC  16-6  20-11  18-13  73.9 -14.0  <0.1  -0.6    8    5 
 32. Baylor                 B12  14-7  20-11  21-10  71.4 +10.4   0.0   0.0    8   10 

St. Mary's rose from a 10 to an 8 after beating Gonzaga, and Baylor's comeback win over Kansas did the same for the Bears. Mississippi State was one of the big losers of the week, falling from their 5-seed perch after losing to Alabama and Missouri, both at home, the latter by 27 points. They're now tied with Texas for 10th place in the SEC.

And finally we get to two of our headline teams: New Mexico and Oklahoma. The Lobos beat Utah State on the road 82-63, making them the new Mountain West favorites and taking them off the bubble for the time being. Utah State dropped to a 10-seed. The Sooners have been on the bubble all year due to low Strength, but their 97-67 win over Vanderbilt was pretty convincing. They already have good wins—Arizona, Louisville, and Michigan, all on neutral courts—so they just have to limit the losses in SEC play.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 33. Clemson                ACC  18-4  24-7   25-6   69.3  -1.2   0.0   0.0    9    8 
 34. Creighton              BE   16-6  22-9   22-9   68.3  +3.2   0.0   0.0    9    9 
 35. New Mexico             MWC  18-4  25-6   25-6   67.8 +10.9   0.0   0.0    9   11 
 36. Oklahoma               SEC  16-5  19-12  18-13  66.1 +12.6   0.0   0.0    9   11p
 37. Louisville             ACC  16-6  24-7   25-6   65.6  -7.3   0.0   0.0   10    8 
 38. Utah St.               MWC  19-3  26-5   26-5   65.1  -8.3   0.0   0.0   10    7 

Speaking of Louisville, the Cards were upset at Georgia Tech, ending their 10-game win streak. They're favored in every game going forward, but lack quality wins. They lost to Tennessee, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Duke, and Kentucky, so their SOS is great but there are no big opportunities on their upcoming slate.

The Bubble: BYU jumps into the ranking on the strength of wins over Baylor and UCF, while Georgia hangs on at a 10-seed despite their 5th loss in 6 tries.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 39. BYU                    B12  15-6  20-11  20-11  62.6 +10.0   0.0   0.0   10      
 40. Georgia                SEC  15-7  19-12  19-12  62.2  -1.7  <0.1   0.0   10   10 
 41. West Virginia          B12  14-7  20-11  21-10  60.7  +5.0   0.0   0.0   11   11p
 42. Pittsburgh             ACC  14-7  21-10  22-9   59.4  -5.1   0.0   0.0   11p   9 
 43. Vanderbilt             SEC  16-5  19-12  18-13  59.4 -13.9   0.0  -0.1   11p   7 
 44. San Diego St.          MWC  15-5  21-8   23-6   54.5  -5.5   0.0   0.0   11p  10 
 45. UC San Diego           BW   18-4  27-5   27-5   47.8  -6.3   0.0   0.0   11   11p
 46. Xavier                 BE   13-9  19-12  21-10  47.8  -6.7   0.0   0.0   11p  11p

Pittsburgh beat North Carolina but lost to Wake Forest, and in today's environment that's a negative. Vanderbilt had it worse, losing by 30 to Oklahoma and falling from a 7-seed all the way to the play-in line. It wasn't that they lost, but the magnitude dents their Strength rating, and hopes for wins going forward (they are only favorites in 2 games). San Diego State dipped despite going 2-0 last week; both were home games, against inferior teams (San Jose State, Wyoming), and dismal results (3 point and 2 point margins). UC San Diego, who beat the Aztecs in the opener in November, also tumbled despite beating Hawaii. But the Tritons regained "leader" status in the Big West, so their "play-in" designation is gone (for now).

UC Irvine held that status in the Big West last week and their 2 games were even less impressive that UCSD's. The Anteaters needed OT to beat 7-16 Long Beach and only topped UC Davis by 7 points. Rushing in to the Last Four Out were Arkansas, who upset Kentucky, and Nebraska, who beat Illinois in overtime and Oregon on the road. Both teams were in the dumps for most of 2025, with 5- and 6-game losing streaks during that month. Now the Razorbacks have won 2 of 3, the Cornhuskers two straight. Time will tell whether their surges continues or were a temporary respite.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 47. Arkansas               SEC  13-8  17-14  17-14  47.3 +14.8   0.0   0.0           
 48. Nebraska               B10  14-8  18-13  17-14  46.0 +22.1   0.0   0.0           
 49. UC Irvine              BW   20-3  27-5   29-3   45.6 -11.6   0.0   0.0        11 
 50. VCU                    A10  17-5  25-6   26-5   45.4  -0.5   0.0   0.0   12   12 
 51. SMU                    ACC  17-5  23-8   25-6   45.3  +0.4   0.0   0.0           
 52. Drake                  MVC  20-2  26-4   28-2   40.7  +1.7   0.0   0.0   12      
 53. Boise St.              MWC  15-7  21-10  23-8   39.4  +5.6   0.0   0.0           
 54. North Carolina         ACC  13-10 19-13  20-12  37.7  -6.7   0.0   0.0           

Drake, now 20-2, regained the leader status in the Missouri Valley. The Bulldogs started 12-0, lost two, and have won 8 straight. North Carolina is in big trouble after losing to Pitt and Duke, but have several easy games left on the schedule so getting to 20 wins is within reach. They might need a tournament win or two to seal the deal, though.

The losers: These teams all had bad weeks, losing 10+ percent from their Dance Chance odds. Penn State has now lost 7 of their last 8 since their 12-2 start, and stand 3-8 in Big Ten play. Still, they're not out of it by any means at 35%, but they have to win some games! Oregon State lost big to Gonzaga (98-60) in payback for their overtime home win vs. the Zags a few weeks ago. They play St. Mary's this Saturday and need the win at home to keep their at-large hopes alive. McNeese realistically needs to win their conference tournament but losing at Nicholls State made any contingency plans even more far-fetched. North Texas, too, needs minimally a very strong finish and American tournament run after losing to UTSA, and they probably need an auto-bid to get in. Northwestern's odds got cut in half this week with two home losses (Rutgers, Wisconsin) putting the Wildcats at 3-8 in Big Ten play.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 55. Penn St.               B10  13-9  18-13  18-13  35.1 -14.4   0.0   0.0           
 58. Oregon St.             WCC  16-7  22-9   22-9   28.7 -10.0   0.0   0.0           
 64. McNeese                Slnd 16-6  24-7   25-6   20.0 -13.5   0.0   0.0   12   12 
 66. North Texas            Amer 16-5  23-7   25-5   19.9 -15.7   0.0   0.0           
 67. Northwestern           B10  12-10 16-15  17-14  19.9 -19.0   0.0   0.0           
 71. Bradley                MVC  18-5  23-8   25-6   16.7 -22.3   0.0   0.0        12 
 75. Cincinnati             B12  12-9  16-15  16-15  12.4 -14.5   0.0   0.0           
 80. LSU                    SEC  12-9  15-16  13-18   6.4 -10.0   0.0   0.0           
 88. Florida St.            ACC  13-9  17-14  16-15   3.4 -16.5   0.0   0.0           

Bradley was tied with Drake last week but the Braves fumbled the bag with losses to Illinois-Chicago and Northern Iowa. They lost more than half their at-large odds! As did Cincinnati in the Big Twelve, losing 4 in a row for the 2nd time this year. LSU dropped 10 percentage points mainly due to the 31-point home loss to Texas; the prior loss to Auburn probably didn't move the needle at all. And Florida State for a while was looking like a great turnaround story but the Seminoles have dropped 4 in a row; the upset losses to Virginia Tech and Boston College knocked their odds from around 20% to just over 3% for an at-large bid. While still ahead of 2023's 9-23 team, they're on-track with last season's 17-16 squad.