SportsRatings: College Basketball

2024-24 Week 10 Dance Chance: Florida boots Tennessee from top seeds

Two new 1-seeds this week. Auburn remained on top with two hard-fought SEC road wins, though star Johni Broome had another injury scare. Duke beat Pitt and Notre Dame at home and joined the Tigers—whom they beat earlier this year—as near-locks for the tournament and over 50% in 1-seed odds. After that things changed: Despite suffering their first loss, to Kentucky, earlier in the week, Florida's massive 30-point win over Tennessee moves the Gators to the 1-line. Alabama, who like Auburn got two SEC road wins, takes the final 1-seed with the Volunteers close behind as the top 2-seed. All three teams have around 40% odds to end up a 1-seed, meaning the SEC has a decent shot at having three 1-seeds

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
  1. Auburn                 SEC  15-1  28-3   30-1  >99.9   0.0  93.9  +0.1    1    1 
  2. Duke                   ACC  14-2  28-3   29-2  >99.9   0.0  68.9  +0.4    1    1 
  3. Florida                SEC  15-1  26-5   27-4   99.1  +5.3  44.1 +23.9    1    2 
  4. Alabama                SEC  14-2  24-7   25-6   98.7  +3.4  41.6 +15.2    1    2 
  5. Tennessee              SEC  15-1  25-6   28-3   98.6  -1.0  41.0 -22.9    2    1 
  6. Houston                B12  12-3  25-6   28-3   97.2  +1.2  12.2  -3.2    2    2 
  7. Michigan               B10  13-3  24-7   28-3   96.7  +6.1  14.8  +6.5    2    3 
  8. Iowa St.               B12  14-1  26-5   27-4   96.4  +3.6  15.7  +3.8    2    3 
  9. Illinois               B10  12-4  23-8   25-6   96.0  -1.0  14.6 -12.6    3    1 
 10. Kentucky               SEC  13-3  22-9   25-6   95.7  +0.6  17.8  -6.1    3    2 

Illinois is the other 1-seed booted out of the top line and they fall to a 3-seed. The Illini started the week great, beating Penn State by 39 points before falling at home to USC in an 82-72 stunner. That left the Michigan Wolverines as the new favorite in the Big Ten after they beat UCLA 94-75 on the road and Washington 91-75 at home. Houston and Iowa State continued winning and hope to win the Big Twelve. All four teams have double digit 1-seed odds, and winning their conference tournament would give them a good shot, but right now Kentucky actually has the highest 1-seed odds outside the top 5 teams at 17.8%. The Wildcats fell to a 3-seed this week, however; after upsetting Florida they were upset in turn by Georgia, 82-69. 

The Bulldogs got a powerful 20% boost from that win, moving them off the play-in line to a 7-seed. Two other SEC teams fared well: Ole Miss beat Arkansas and LSU and jumped to a 6-seed at 14-2 ahead of their showdown at Alabama on Tuesday; and Missouri beat LSU and Vanderbilt to sit 13-3 ahead of their own showdown at Florida that same day. The Big Ten teams below didn't fare as well, with UCLA taking a big hit vs. Michigan as noted above, then losing 79-61 at Maryland. Their home game against Iowa on Friday will be played at home, or somewhere in the area, despite the L.A. fires. Ohio State may have demolished Oregon in football but the Buckeyes lost at home to the Ducks 73-71 last Thursday and they dropped a couple seeds.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 22. Mississippi            SEC  14-2  20-11  20-11  76.3 +18.9   1.0  +0.8    6   10 
 24. UCLA                   B10  11-5  20-11  24-7   75.6 -10.7  <0.1  -2.9    6    4 
 25. Pittsburgh             ACC  12-4  24-7   25-6   75.3 -10.0  <0.1  -2.2    7    4 
 26. Georgia                SEC  14-2  20-11  20-11  75.1 +20.6   0.3  +0.1    7   11p
 27. St. John's             BE   14-3  24-7   25-6   74.4 +10.5   0.1  +0.1    7    9 
 32. Missouri               SEC  13-3  20-11  18-13  69.7 +11.7   0.2  +0.1    8   10 
 34. Louisville             ACC  12-5  23-8   25-6   66.1 +11.2   0.0   0.0    9   11 
 35. Ohio St.               B10  10-6  19-12  19-12  65.8  -5.5  <0.1  -0.4    9    7 
 37. San Diego St.          MWC  10-4  22-7   24-5   63.9  -5.4   0.0   0.0   10    8 

Pittsburgh had a bad week, losing to Duke by 29 then falling to Louisville at home; this dropped them from 12-2 to 12-4 and from a projected 4-seed down to a 7-seed, while the Cardinals jumped to a 9-seed with a 5-1 start in the ACC. New 7-seed St. John's is also 5-1 in the Big East following wins over Xavier and Villanova. In the Mountain West, San Diego State slumped after losing 62-48 to New Mexico 62-48.

Speaking of the Lobos, they are now 6-0 in the MWC and moved off the play-in line but are still on the bubble, if you define that as the Last Eight In. Also surging and back in the seedings is UC Irvine, who beat fellow Big West contender UC San Diego on the road to claim unofficial conference leader status from the Tritons, who fell to an 11-seed. That gives the Big West two projected at-large teams in the tournament, which could happen if both continue to play well. Vanderbilt didn't play well last week, losing two games just after I talked them up for starting 13-1.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 39. UC Irvine              BW   15-2  28-4   30-2   61.2 +12.2   0.0   0.0   10      
 40. New Mexico             MWC  14-3  24-7   24-7   60.2  +9.9   0.0   0.0   10   12p
 41. Vanderbilt             SEC  13-3  19-12  18-13  57.3 -10.1   0.1  -0.4   11    8 
 42. UC San Diego           BW   14-3  27-5   28-4   57.1  -4.9   0.0   0.0   11   10 
 43. Saint Mary's           WCC  15-3  23-8   26-5   56.8 +13.0   0.0   0.0   11p     
 44. Nebraska               B10  12-4  19-12  17-14  54.2 -11.2   0.0  -0.1   11p   9 
 45. Iowa                   B10  12-4  19-12  17-14  51.2 +14.8   0.0   0.0   11p     
 46. Texas                  SEC  11-5  18-13  18-13  50.9  +2.4  <0.1  +0.1   11p     

Another SEC team, Texas, is one of three teams to join on the 11-seed play-in line. The Longhorns lost two games last week but still moved up as the Last Team In; their narrow losses to top overall seed Auburn (87-82) and former 1-seed Tennessee (74-70) were deemed positive results, which they were (except for the losing part). Imagine where they'd be if they had won one (or both) of those games! And Iowa re-joins after beating Indiana 85-60, and before that topping Nebraska in overtime. The Cornhuskers followed up that loss with another one at Purdue by the score of 104-68. Ouch! And the last team to join is St. Mary's, no surprise as the Gaels are in the tournament every year and the WCC can't be a 1-bid league can they?

Under the waterline: Four teams in means four teams fell out (five if you count Dayton, who remains the Atlantic 10 favorite despite a 1-2 start in the league): Arkansas lost twice at home to Ole Miss and Florida—neither a shameful result but the Razorbacks are 0-3 in the SEC and it doesn't get much easier; Penn State got crushed by Illinois 91-52 then lost at home to Oregon; SMU fell at North Carolina 82-67, again not a horrible result but the Mustangs were 2nd-to-Last Team In last week; and Cincinnati suffered their 3rd and 4th losses in a row, to Baylor and Kansas.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 47. Arkansas               SEC  11-5  18-13  18-13  50.6 -12.6  <0.1  -0.4         9 
 48. Penn St.               B10  12-5  19-12  18-13  49.9 -11.1   0.0   0.0        10 
 49. Dayton                 A10  11-5  22-9   24-7   47.7  -8.2   0.0   0.0   12   11 
 50. SMU                    ACC  12-4  22-9   25-6   47.6  -5.0   0.0   0.0        12p
 51. Oklahoma               SEC  13-3  18-13  16-15  46.6  -2.6   0.0   0.0           
 52. Creighton              BE   10-6  19-12  19-12  44.6  +7.9   0.0   0.0           
 53. Cincinnati             B12  10-5  19-12  20-11  42.0 -13.6   0.0   0.0        11 
 54. BYU                    B12  10-5  18-13  18-13  40.9  -7.9   0.0   0.0           

All in all not a great week for the teams that finished on the lower end of the bubble. Oklahoma is 13-3 after losing to Texas A&M and Georgia, though they only lost -2.6% of their odds from it. Our projection doesn't give them many wins going forward, so the losses don't ding their odds much. BYU also has lost three in a row in the Big Twelve. Creighton was the only team here that had a pleasant week, winning their only game at Butler.

There aren't many big winners below the bubble area, either, as almost every team is moving down in odds as reality sets in. I was high on St. Bonaventure last week when I realized they were 14-1; now they're 14-3 and dropped from 42% to 28% odds after falling to St. Louis and La Salle. Arizona State started 9-2 but they're 10-5 now after losing to Kansas and Baylor for a 1-3 start in the Big Twelve. Indiana got off to a 4-1 Big Ten start but hit a headwind at Iowa, losing by 25. Northwestern is now 1-4 in the same league after losing three in a row, most recently to Michigan State. 

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 59. Arizona St.            B12  10-5  17-14  17-14  33.0  -5.8   0.0   0.0           
 61. Indiana                B10  13-4  17-14  15-16  31.5  -5.1   0.0   0.0           
 64. St. Bonaventure        A10  14-3  23-8   25-6   28.0 -16.3   0.0   0.0           
 69. Northwestern           B10  10-6  16-15  17-14  23.1 -10.6   0.0   0.0           
 72. Washington St.         WCC  13-5  21-10  20-11  21.3 -20.7   0.0   0.0           
 73. USC                    B10  10-6  16-15  13-18  20.6 +11.4   0.0   0.0           
 74. Furman                 SC   14-2  24-6   27-3   20.4  -6.8   0.0   0.0   13   12 

USC, however, is bucking the downward trend. The Trojans did lose to Indiana on Wednesday but they upset 1-seed Illinois 82-72 to revive their flagging at-large hopes. They're only 2-3 in the conference so far but it was easily their best win of the season. Former Pac-12 teammates Washington State lost two games in their new league (the WCC). On Saturday they lost to Gonzaga by 13 which isn't bad at all, unfortunately before that they fell to lowly 6-14 Pacific in overtime, at home. That cut their at-large hopes in half. Furman still leads our Southern Conference projections despite losing to UNC Greensboro 84-67 last week.

Bradley was charging in the Missouri Valley and hoped to beat Drake and take over the Bulldogs' leadership position; instead the lost at home 64-57 and were almost upset at Illinois-Chicago. Another MVC hopeful, Northern Iowa, was upset at home by Murray State. In the Atlantic 10 George Mason slid despite two wins: they beat mediocre Richmond and UMass by 6 and 7 at home, respectively. Rhode Island needed overtime to beat the same mediocre Richmond team and lost to George Washington at home.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 76. Bradley                MVC  14-3  23-8   25-6   19.2  -7.9   0.0   0.0           
 78. George Mason           A10  12-5  21-10  23-8   17.6  -6.4   0.0   0.0           
 79. LSU                    SEC  11-5  15-16  12-19  16.8 -10.9   0.0   0.0           
 83. Rhode Island           A10  13-3  21-9   22-8   13.8 -10.9   0.0   0.0           
 85. Lipscomb               ASun 11-6  23-8   25-6   11.4 -11.2   0.0   0.0   13   13 
 86. San Francisco          WCC  14-5  20-11  20-11  11.4 -10.3   0.0   0.0           
 87. Northern Iowa          MVC  10-7  19-12  21-10  11.1  -7.0   0.0   0.0           

LSU proves that not every SEC team is excelling—not surprising since they're all playing each other. The Tigers lost their 3rd game in a row to start 0-3 in league play and look like a sub-.500 team when all is said and done. Lipscomb is pretty far and away the best team in the Atlantic Sun but they lost at home to Queens, 75-73 last Thursday. And San Francisco continues to slide down our rankings, dropping another 10% after losing to Santa Clara by 23 points on Saturday. The Dons are now the 6th-ranked WCC team, and the WCC might only get one team this year. It won't get six.

 All of the teams below lost more than half their existing odds. Nearly all are from minor or mid-major conferences and have middling overall records, something that rarely if even manifests into an at-large bid. CSUN (Cal-State Northridge, if you wondered), lost to both UC Irvine (which was expected) and CSU Bakersfield (which was not). South Dakota State once again swapped the Summit leadership with rival North Dakota State, this after the Jackrabbits fell to St. Thomas and Nebraska Omaha last week. UNLV and Butler are from solid conferences and theoretically could get back on the board but both lost twice last week, with the Bulldogs hurting especially hard after their NINTH loss in a row.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
114. CSUN                   BW   11-6  19-12  21-10   3.3  -5.1   0.0   0.0           
118. South Dakota St.       Sum  10-8  20-11  22-9    2.7  -5.2   0.0   0.0        14 
123. Butler                 BE    7-10 13-18  13-18   2.1  -8.9   0.0   0.0           
124. UNLV                   MWC   9-7  15-16  13-18   1.8  -5.8   0.0   0.0           
127. Troy                   SB   10-6  19-10  20-9    1.5  -5.5   0.0   0.0           
129. Illinois St.           MVC  10-7  18-13  18-13   1.4  -5.9   0.0   0.0           
139. Wichita St.            Amer 10-6  18-13  19-12   0.5  -8.2   0.0   0.0           

Troy also dropped two games after a decent 10-4 start, and worse, both were home games they coulda shoulda won. Illinois State lost twice (see a pattern?) and guess what? so did Wichita State, both upset losses by double digits, which is why the Shockers are down to 0.5% odds, or a 1 in 200 chance of somehow making it to at-large status.

Florida wipes out Tennessee, 73-43: how does it change power ratings?

Florida took an early lead and didn't look back, crushing the final D-I unbeaten Tennessee 73-43. It was supposed to be a battle of the unbeatens but Florida lost a few days ago at Kentucky, meaning that both the Gators and the Vols are 14-1 now.

Just out of curiosity, let's see what this one, lopsided result does to our power ratings: Strength, Success, and Overall.

Strength

This is a "pure points" rating—winner doesn't matter—and it's also unweighted (recent games don't count more). Here is the Strength ranking as of Sunday's games:

#   Team                     Record   Rating
1.  Auburn                    13-1     34.71
2.  Duke                      12-2     32.60
3.  Houston                   10-3     31.29
4.  Tennessee                 14-0     29.69
5.  Gonzaga                   12-4     29.39
6.  Illinois                  11-3     28.49
7.  Iowa St.                  12-1     26.52
8.  Alabama                   12-2     26.43
9.  Florida                   13-1     25.99

Tennessee was undefeated but rated below Auburn, Duke, and Houston in Strength. Florida was 9th going in to tonight's game. With a 3 point home edge, the expected result was Tennessee by about a point; the oddsmakers favored the Gators by 2.5, and the betting public pushed that to 3.5 points.

With tonight's result added in, we have:

#   Team                     Record   Rating
1.  Auburn                    13-1     34.69
2.  Duke                      12-2     32.58
3.  Houston                   10-3     31.26
4.  Gonzaga                   12-4     29.37
5.  Illinois                  11-3     28.29
6.  Florida                   14-1     28.00
7.  Tennessee                 14-1     27.64

What a difference a 30-point blowout makes! Tennessee fell three spots to #7 and Florida moved up 3 to #6. Overall Tennessee's rating fell by about two full points while Florida gained 2. Considering that I only added this one result, it makes sense. Still, it's rare when one result puts the winner ahead of the loser when the loser was almost 4 points better previously.

Now, Success: 

Success is a wins-losses-only rating, meaning score margin doesn't matter. So whether Florida won by a point or by 30, the result here would be the same. It does matter that they played at home. Here's the Success ratings before the game:

#   Team                     record    Rating
1.  Tennessee                 14-0     38.51
2.  Auburn                    13-1     31.30
3.  Kentucky                  12-2     21.29
4.  Mississippi St.           13-1     20.42
5.  Duke                      12-2     18.45
6.  Florida                   13-1     18.39

Tennessee was the clear #1 here at 14-0, with Auburn a solid 2nd place and everyone else including the Gators far behind. Florida's loss to Kentucky dropped them to #6 at 13-1. What does one home win do?

#   Team                     record    Rating
1.  Auburn                    13-1     31.09
2.  Tennessee                 14-1     29.26
3.  Florida                   14-1     28.43
4.  Kentucky                  12-2     23.53

Well, now Auburn's back at #1, best among the 1-loss teams in Success. Florida gains a lot of ground back—10 points worth—and Tennessee loses almost 10 points, but remains ahead of the Gators. The 30 points doesn't matter, and the home court is taken into account, so the result isn't seen as definitive just yet. In any event, the teams are very close. Note that Florida moves back ahead of Kentucky who just beat them a few days ago! This rating system doesn't know (or care) that Kentucky beat Florida by 6 and Florida beat Tennessee by 30.

Overall

This is the combination of the two ratings: it simply adds the scores together, accounting for both winning games and playing for style points. Prior to the game:

#   Team                     Record   Rating
1.  Tennessee                 14-0     68.21
2.  Auburn                    13-1     66.01
3.  Duke                      12-2     51.05
4.  Kentucky                  12-2     46.90
5.  Iowa St.                  12-1     44.72
6.  Florida                   13-1     44.39

Tennessee was barely ahead of Auburn as of Monday, the Vols having enough of a lead in Success to offset Auburn's lead in Strength. Florida was 9th in Strength and 6th in Success, good enough for 6th place overall.

#   Team                     Record   Rating
1.  Auburn                    13-1     65.79
2.  Tennessee                 14-1     56.91
3.  Florida                   14-1     56.43
4.  Duke                      12-2     50.87
5.  Kentucky                  12-2     49.26
6.  Iowa St.                  12-1     44.42

The teams are so close in Strength that it ends up being the larger difference in Success that gives Tennessee about a 1/2 point edge overall. In any case it's pretty much even after the 30-point blowout. Does that make sense? Why isn't Florida ahead? Well, what do you think the line will be when Tennessee gets a shot at revenge in February 1st?

Only Auburn passes Tennessee, while Florida moves past Iowa State, Kentucky, and Duke. This gives the SEC the top three spots in the country, and 4 of the top 5!

Note that this doesn't include any other games played since Sunday. When those are figured in, a lot could change (Auburn is playing Texas as I type this, while Duke has demolished Pitt, and Kentucky lost to Georgia. Iowa State leads Utah. I normally update twice a week until football season is over but I'll make an exception tomorrow morning, there's too much going on!

Addendum: Where does this game rank among the year's best performances?

Seems like it should be pretty close to the top:

1.  Kansas 99, @UCF 48
2.  Auburn 91, =Ohio St. 53
3.  Gonzaga 113, UMass Lowell 54
4.  Illinois 109, @Oregon 77
5.  Arkansas 109, Maryland Eastern Shore 35
6.  Alabama 110, UNC Asheville 54
7.  Florida 73, Tennessee 43

Florida's win is only #7. Auburn's win over Ohio State is only #2 after Kansas beat Central Florida by 51. Gonzaga's best win was over Baylor by 38 in the opener until they topped UMass-Lowell by 59. If we filter out the mega-blowouts and consider only power-conference games, Florida over Tennessee is 3rd after the big wins by Auburn and Illinois. Ignoring margin of victory, though, it's probably 2nd to Duke's win over Auburn. 

2024 Week 7: SEC eyes two 1-seeds, three 2-seeds?

Another week, another Dance Chance projection with Auburn at the very top. A 41-point win over Georgia State and an 18 point win over Purdue didn't do anything but solidify the Tigers' position as the overall top 1-seed. They're very nearly a "lock" for the 2025 tournament and an astoundingly good bet for a 1-seed already in late 2024. Undefeated Tennessee is almost as certain a bet at 70% odds for a 1-seed, giving the SEC the two top teams. Duke is looking good for a 1-seed, but Gonzaga has just a 5.8% chance of remaining a 1-seed despite taking the 4th spot in today's projection. This is because their remaining schedule is easier and they rarely project below a 2-seed, while other teams have a greater "spread" of outcome. They play UCLA on Saturday, a game that might have a big effect on whether they take the last 1-seed or not, as their remaining schedule is on the easy side.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
  1. Auburn                 SEC  11-1  28-3   30-1  >99.9  +0.2  90.7  +3.6    1    1 
  2. Tennessee              SEC  11-0  27-4   30-1   98.9  +1.0  69.6  +7.9    1    1 
  3. Duke                   ACC  10-2  27-4   29-2   97.7  +1.0  41.9  +3.2    1    1 
  4. Gonzaga                WCC   9-3  27-4   28-3   94.7  -0.3   5.8  -4.6    1    1 
  5. Houston                B12   8-3  25-6   28-3   93.9  +1.4  18.0  +0.8    2    2 
  6. Kentucky               SEC  10-2  22-9   25-6   92.1  -1.9  27.6 -10.2    2    2 
  7. Alabama                SEC  10-2  22-9   25-6   90.9  -0.8  25.2  -7.8    2    2 
  8. Florida                SEC  12-0  24-7   26-5   90.8  +7.3  22.7  +6.6    2    3 

The current 2-seeds all have a much higher chance of getting a 1-seed than Gonzaga but they also have tougher schedules and thus have more ways to earn a 1-seed as well as a higher chance to screw it up than the Zags do. Houston, once 4-3, is now 8-3 and the Cougars outlook is good, and the 2-line now contains three more SEC teams, all with 20%+ odds of reaching the 1-line: fighting it out will be Kentucky, Alabama, and Florida. The Wildcats had a poor week, losing by 20 to Ohio State, a team Auburn beat by 38, resulting in a double-digit loss in 1-seed odds without dropping the 'Cats out of the 2-line. Alabama underperformed at North Dakota, winning by just 7 points. Florida shined however, remaining unbeaten with a win at North Carolina and a 54-point beatdown of North Florida.

The teams currently on the 3-line each has around a 10% shot at a 1-seed. Marquette drops to a 3-seed after tepid wins over Butler and Xavier but remains tops in the Big East. Maryland takes over as top dog in the Big Ten after crushing St. Francis 111-57 and beating Syracuse 87-60, just edging past Illinois who remains a 3-seed after beating Missouri 80-77 in St. Louis. Iowa State is the #2 Big Twelve team currently, their only loss to Auburn. The Cyclones pummeled Morgan State 99-72.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
  9. Marquette              BE   11-2  25-6   28-3   89.3  +1.5   9.5  -1.6    3    2 
 10. Maryland               B10  10-2  25-7   28-4   89.0  +8.9  10.7  +5.2    3    4 
 11. Illinois               B10   8-3  23-8   27-4   88.7  +1.8  14.1  -1.4    3    3 
 12. Iowa St.               B12  10-1  25-6   27-4   88.4  +1.3  13.3  -1.0    3    3 
 13. Connecticut            BE   10-3  24-7   27-4   83.0  -0.3   2.5  -0.6    4    3 
 17. Mississippi St.        SEC  11-1  22-9   23-8   78.6  +7.1   7.6  +1.8    5    5 
 18. Ohio St.               B10   8-4  21-10  23-8   77.6 +12.8   3.6  +2.0    5    8 
 19. Oregon                 B10  11-1  22-9   21-10  75.0  +5.0   2.3  +0.1    5    6 

Connecticut, like Marquette, had trouble with both Xavier and Butler, needing overtime to beat the Musketeers and edging the Bulldogs by 4 points. Mississippi State is yet another SEC team with reasonable designs on a 1-seed; they're at 7.6%, meaning current ly-projected 1-seed Gonzaga is actually 12th in 1-seed odds! These Bulldogs beat Memphis on the road and only have one loss, to Butler (Butler is giving everyone fits despite being just 7-6!). And both Ohio State and Oregon had solid weeks, leading a huge swath of Big Ten teams in the 5- and 6-seed lines. The Buckeyes of course crushed Kentucky in New York, 85-65, propping them up 3 seeds, while the Ducks beat former Pac-12 rival Stanford 76-61 and are off to an 11-1 start.

I've been sleeping on St. John's, I have to admit. Last year's team came on strong at the end and might have made waves in the Dance if they'd been selected; it seems the momentum has carried through to this season where the Red Storm are 10-2 after beating DePaul 89-61 and Providence 72-70 on the road. Arizona got off to a rocky 4-5 start but last week was a good one, with the Wildcats beating Samford by 32 and Central Michigan 94-41(!). They need to beat the good teams, though, if they want a better seed than 8, though that is much better than being on the bubble like last week. Memphis and Dayton both took a hit last week, the Tigers losing to Mississippi State at home and the Flyers falling to Cincinnati.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 25. St. John's             BE   10-2  23-8   25-6   69.6  +6.5   0.7  +0.3    7    8 
 28. Memphis                Amer  9-3  25-6   28-3   66.1  -4.7   0.0  -0.2    7    5 
 30. Arizona                B12   6-5  19-12  21-10  65.4 +13.1   0.5  +0.2    8   11 
 31. Dayton                 A10  10-3  25-6   27-4   65.2  -0.7   0.0   0.0    8    7 
 32. San Diego St.          MWC   8-2  22-7   24-5   64.1  +6.6  <0.1   0.0    8    9 
 33. Clemson                ACC  10-3  22-9   24-7   64.0  -4.6   0.1  -0.3    9    6 
 35. Texas Tech             B12   9-2  21-10  20-11  61.1  +9.6   0.7  +0.6    9   11p

San Diego State, currently our #2 MWC team, beat Cal 71-50 and faces MWC #1 Utah State this Saturday, while Clemson, currently #3 ACC, lost their 2nd overtime game in a row at South Carolina and dropped to a 9-seed. Texas Tech had a fun week, beating up Oral Roberts by 36 and Lamar by 44, which took them off the play-in line in a big way. The Red Raiders don't have any quality wins so they'll have to have a strong Big Twelve season, which is looking more likely with their improvement in Strength rating.

The Bubble: We start off with two more SEC teams, Arkansas who has been here for a while, and Mississippi who dropped here from a 10-seed despite wins over Southern and Queens that weren't amazing enough (13 and 18 points) to meet the expectations of a 10-seed. As SEC teams #12 and #13 they won't get the benefit of the doubt. SMU, on the other hand, might get some leeway as they are only ACC team #5. Once again Drake resides here; they got a decent win at Kansas State but they followed that up with just a 10-point home win over lackluster Green Bay (yes, the team that lost to Michigan Tech).

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 41. Arkansas               SEC  10-2  19-12  19-12  55.0  +2.5   0.7  -0.5   11   11 
 42. Mississippi            SEC  11-1  19-12  18-13  53.7  -1.8   0.9  -0.6   11   10 
 43. SMU                    ACC  10-2  23-8   26-5   53.7  +2.8  <0.1   0.0   11p  12p
 44. Drake                  MVC  11-0  26-4   29-1   49.0  -0.8   0.0   0.0   11   12 
 45. West Virginia          B12   9-2  18-13  18-13  47.8  +2.1  <0.1  -0.1   11p     
 46. Nevada                 MWC   8-4  22-9   24-7   47.5  -4.7   0.0   0.0   12p  11p
 47. UC Irvine              BW   10-2  26-6   29-3   47.3  -8.1   0.0   0.0   12   10 
 48. Iowa                   B10   9-3  19-12  18-13  46.9  +7.5  <0.1   0.0   12p     

West Virginia is new to the seedings, as is Iowa who has been just below the waterline for many weeks. The Hawkeyes got a solid win over Utah on Saturday to propel them to Last Team In. Nevada holds on as a play-in team, giving the Mountain West three teams, while Big West leader UC Irvine last to Duquesne 70-54, reinforcing the idea that the Anteaters' Dance hopes will probably come down to the Big West tournament.

Saint Mary's took a huge hit and fell below the waterline from a 9-seed; the Gaels lost at home to Utah State 75-68 but almost as bad was their way-too-close 73-68 home win over Merrimack, a game they should have cleared by at least 15. This left Gonzaga as the only West Coast Conference rep in the tournament, though the Gaels are joined by new WCC members Oregon State and Washington State in the lower bubble. Another team slipping out of the seedings is former WCC member BYU; even a 103-57 win over Florida A&M didn't keep them afloat.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 49. BYU                    B12   9-2  19-12  20-11  45.8  -1.3   0.1  +0.1        12p
 50. Oregon St.             WCC   9-2  22-7   23-6   45.8  +1.5   0.0   0.0           
 51. Vanderbilt             SEC  11-1  18-13  16-15  45.1 +12.8   0.2  +0.2           
 52. Saint Mary's           WCC  10-3  22-9   23-8   45.0 -11.9   0.0   0.0         9 
 53. UC San Diego           BW   11-2  27-5   29-3   44.8  +6.4   0.0   0.0           
 54. Washington St.         WCC  10-3  22-9   22-9   42.4  -4.5   0.0   0.0           
 55. Louisville             ACC   7-5  20-11  22-9   41.8  +7.7   0.0   0.0           
 56. Boise St.              MWC   9-3  22-9   23-8   40.6  -2.2   0.0   0.0           

Vanderbilt at 11-1 is finally starting to convince our algorithm that they aren't last year's 9-23 teams; they're up almost 13% this week after beating The Citadel by 52 and Austin Peay by 30. The Commodores will have to navigate the SEC, which is now the toughest basketball conference, and they're 14th in line at the moment. But check out UC San Diego, whom I mentioned last week as having a great opportunity vs. Utah State; they made the most of it, beating the Aggies 75-73 on the road. Their followup vs. lowly San Diego wasn't as impressive (77-71) but they're closer to at-large consideration in the Big West, thought realistically they'll probably have to beat Irvine in the conference tournament. Louisville won the showdown of ACC-turnaround teams, beating Florida State 90-76 in Tallahassee, while Boise State currently projects as MWC team #4.

And below we see the effect the big home loss had on the Seminoles, who fell farther off the bubble going into ACC season. Also dropping were Utah (lost to Iowa) and Creighton (lost at Georgetown). Bradley got a good win over San Francisco and looks to challenge Drake in the Missouri Valley; meanwhile the 66-64 loss puts the Dons in the dumps, down almost 15% when combined with their followup 4-point home win over Montana.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 61. Utah                   B12   8-3  18-13  19-12  36.4  -8.1  <0.1  -0.2           
 65. Bradley                MVC  10-2  24-7   27-4   32.3  +8.7   0.0   0.0           
 68. Creighton              BE    8-5  17-14  17-14  29.3  -6.9   0.0   0.0           
 69. Florida St.            ACC   9-4  19-12  20-11  28.3  -6.8   0.0   0.0           
 70. San Francisco          WCC  10-3  21-10  22-9   28.3 -14.9   0.0   0.0           
 74. North Texas            Amer  9-3  21-9   25-5   23.7  -7.2   0.0   0.0           
 79. Northern Iowa          MVC   7-5  20-11  23-8   19.9  +5.3   0.0   0.0           
 83. Florida Atlantic       Amer  7-6  20-11  22-9   16.4  -6.3   0.0   0.0           

Northern Iowa had a mixed week with a positive spin; they fell to Washington State 76-68 on a neutral court, but the loss was expected. They also beat Montana 104-76 when they were expected to win by less than 10 points, so their Dance Chance odds jumped 5.3% in the end. North Texas had one of the more interesting weeks, winning three games but falling 7.2%!! The Mean Green beat Mississippi Valley 83-42, Appalachian State 68-64, and Houston Christian 62-46, all at home. The first game was a blowout against arguably the worst team in Division I which exceeded expectations, but they next two did not, especially the App State game. In the end it lowered their Strength rating by 3 points, and another game affected their Strength, too: Stephen F Austin beat Texas Wesleyan by 26 points, and back in November the Mean Green beat Texas Wesleyan just 73-66. That docked them another 1.5 points! All in all their projection changed by just 1 game, from 22-8 to 21-9, but it makes the American Athletic conference look like a certain 1-bid league. Florida Atlantic getting off to a 7-6 start doesn't help on that front.

Wichita State also stumbled, losing to Kansas City (formerly known as UMKC) 74-64 at home, meaning every decent AAC team was down from last week. The Big East saw DePaul lose twice by 20+ points but Georgetown started the conference season 2-0 with wins over Creighton and Seton Hall; last year the Hoyas won two conference games TOTAL. Loyola Chicago lost to Oakland in Hawaii, their 2nd loss in 3 outings, both on neutral courts and putting them in single digits for at-large hopes.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 85. DePaul                 BE    8-4  16-15  15-16  14.5  -5.3   0.0   0.0           
 86. Georgetown             BE   10-2  17-14  14-17  13.8  +7.4   0.0   0.0           
 94. Stanford               ACC   9-3  18-13  19-12  11.6  -7.4   0.0   0.0           
 98. Wichita St.            Amer  9-3  21-10  22-9   10.7  -5.2   0.0   0.0           
106. Loyola Chicago         A10   9-2  18-11  19-10   8.3  -6.8   0.0   0.0           
130. UC Santa Barbara       BW    7-5  19-12  21-10   3.3  -5.2   0.0   0.0           
146. James Madison          SB    6-6  19-11  23-7    1.5  -5.1   0.0   0.0           
212. Merrimack              MAAC  5-8  17-14  22-9    0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   16p  16p
277. Colgate                PAT   3-10 13-18  16-15   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0        16p

Stanford not only lost to Oregon but got a scare from Merrimack, winning just 74-68. Not that's not deja vu, Merrimack lost to St. Mary's 73-68 and at Stanford 74-68. Their Strength jumped from #231 to #198 but their Dance Chance odds remained 0.1%, which still seems generous for a 5-8 team in a minor conference. The Warriors are the favorite to win the Metro Atlantic, however. Colgate was last week's favorite in the Patriot League but this week they're in 4th place following a 79-73 home loss to Iona which gave the Raiders a 3-10 start (only one team in the Patriot has a winning record so far). Both UC Santa Barbara and James Madison lost twice last week and shed most of their slim remaining hopes to get in the Dance any other way than winning the Big West and Sun Belt tournaments, respectively.

2024 week 5: Can the SEC get three 1-seeds?

Auburn tasted defeat for the first time, falling to Duke 84-78 last Wednesday. But the Tigers already have wins over Houston and Iowa State and rank near the top of the Strength power rating, so a road loss to another top seed doesn't kick them out of the projected overall 1-seed spot. In fact their odds of getting a 1-seed increased to nearly 3 in 4 after a 98-54 blowout of Richmond. With new AP #1 Tennessee undefeated and Kentucky surging after beating Gonzaga last Saturday, the SEC has three projected 1-seeds! Can it stay this way until March?

History says it's not likely; only in 2009 and 2019 has a conference had three 1-seeds. Tennessee has over 50% odds now while Kentucky—who lost to Clemson before the Gonzaga win—comes in at 44% Two 1-seeds happens almost every other year so we'll call that the likely scenario for the SEC. Gonzaga fell to just 19.1% in 1-seed odds while Duke is up to 29.4% but the Zags hang on, barely, to the last 1-spot. Gonzaga needs big wins in the pre-conference season to get a 1-seed, as their opportunities dry up in January in the WCC. The Bulldogs face UConn on Saturday.

                                       Record             Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
  1. Auburn                 SEC   8-1  27-4   30-1   98.7  +1.1  73.7  +6.7    1    1 
  2. Tennessee              SEC   8-0  26-5   29-2   96.2  +2.1  55.4  +7.8    1    1 
  3. Kentucky               SEC   8-1  24-7   27-4   94.3  +3.6  44.1  +8.1    1    2 
  4. Gonzaga                WCC   7-2  27-4   29-2   94.3  +0.6  19.1 -13.4    1    1 
  5. Duke                   ACC   7-2  26-5   29-2   93.9  +6.9  29.4 +11.4    2    2 
  6. Houston                B12   5-3  25-6   28-3   92.1  +1.1  18.6  -0.9    2    1 
  7. Alabama                SEC   7-2  23-8   25-6   90.9  +4.6  31.4  +5.8    2    2 
  8. Marquette              BE    9-1  26-5   29-2   87.3  +6.1  14.3  +4.6    2    3

For Duke, it was three's a charm, the Blue Devils having lost to Kentucky and Kansas in nail-biters before finally winning a big one. Houston's 1-seed odds dipped to 18.6%; despite beating Butler 79-51, they lost most of their big pre-conference games including one to Alabama, whose 1-seed odds are 4th best at 31.4%. A lot of that is due to opportunity in the SEC season, though they did just beat North Carolina. And new 2-seed Marquette had a split week, with Saturday's win over WIsconsin more than making for their first loss at Iowa State days before.

Only two other teams have double-digits odds for getting a 1-seed presently, Illinois and Florida. Florida, like Alabama, has the rich SEC season to mine for Quad-1 wins.The Illini are tops in the Big Ten despite their overtime loss to Northwestern on Friday which knocked them to a 3-seed; they face Tennessee on Saturday. Three other Big Ten teams below are looking to replace Purdue at the top: Ohio State slipped a bit with an 83-59 loss at Maryland, who parlayed that into a 3-seed-level gain despite losing on the road to Purdue on Sunday. Penn State keeps exceeding expectations as they actually topped the Boilermakers 81-70 on Thursday.

                                       Record             Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
  9. Illinois               B10   6-2  23-8   27-4   86.3  +3.0  23.5  +1.0    3    2 
 13. Florida                SEC   9-0  23-8   25-6   77.0  +5.2  11.3  +1.1    4    5 
 14. Pittsburgh             ACC   8-2  24-7   27-4   74.2  -2.3   2.1  -5.0    4    3 
 15. Ohio St.               B10   6-3  21-10  23-8   74.1  -0.4   7.1  -2.2    4    4 
 16. Maryland               B10   8-2  24-8   25-7   74.0 +14.6   3.5  +2.2    4    7 
 17. Penn St.               B10   8-1  23-8   25-6   71.8 +12.9   3.4  +2.0    5    8 
 19. Kansas                 B12   7-2  21-10  22-9   71.3  -2.9   3.4  -5.7    5    4 
 20. Clemson                ACC   9-1  24-7   26-5   70.0 +15.8   1.8  +1.3    5   10 
 24. Cincinnati             B12   7-1  22-9   25-6   64.4  -7.8   2.2  -5.4    6    4 

Clemson had a big week, jumping from a 10-seed to a 5-seed on the strength of a 70-66 win over 1-seed Kentucky. It didn't hurt that Kentucky beat Gonzaga later last week, nor that Penn State is off to an 8-1 start too. ACC-mates Pitt suffered a setback with a 90-57 loss to Mississippi State. In the Big Twelve both Kansas and Cincy lost ground; the Bearcats lost to Villanova 68-60 while the #1 AP Jayhawks lost twice, first to Creighton 76-63, then Missouri 76-67, both on the road. 

Most of the new 7-seeds got there by falling from above, like North Carolina who lost to Alabama 94-79 at home then beat Georgia Tech by just three points. Arizona crushed Southern Utah 102-66 but their 4 losses are catching up to them as our power ratings further separate them from last year's results. And Utah State might have gotten ahead of themselves a bit, with their close call 70-67 home win over Wyoming the likely cause of their 1-seed-line drop. They're still undefeated though, and that's a rarity already in the college basketball world! Michigan bucked the trend by joining the 7-line from below, with a win at Wisconsin and narrow win over Iowa at home powering the Wolverines to an 8-1 start. The Badgers lost twice last week (also to Marquette), their first defeats of the season dropping them 3 seed lines.

                                       Record             Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 25. North Carolina         ACC   5-4  21-11  24-8   64.0  -7.5   1.4  -3.0    7    5 
 26. Michigan               B10   8-1  21-10  23-8   63.6 +12.8   2.9  +1.3    7   11 
 27. Arizona                B12   4-4  20-11  22-9   63.3  -4.5   1.5  -1.5    7    5 
 28. Utah St.               MWC   9-0  25-6   27-4   63.1  -3.0   1.0  -0.2    7    6 
 29. UCLA                   B10   8-1  21-10  22-9   62.7 +14.0   2.0  +0.9    8   11p
 31. Wisconsin              B10   8-2  20-11  22-9   61.3  -7.8   1.7  -4.1    8    5 
 32. Memphis                Amer  7-2  24-7   26-5   60.4  -0.4  <0.1  -0.5    8    7 
 38. Texas                  SEC   7-2  19-12  21-10  53.1  -3.5   1.2  -1.2   10    8 
 39. Oklahoma               SEC   9-0  20-11  18-13  51.6  -2.9   1.3  -0.4   10   10 
 40. Texas Tech             B12   7-2  20-11  20-11  51.6  -2.7   0.2  -1.0   10   10 

UCLA surged ahead by becoming the first team to beat Oregon, 73-71, on the road even; they face Arizona Saturday. Texas and Oklahoma are facing the reality of a very tough SEC schedule, which has the undefeated Sooners projected to go as bad as 9-13 going forward. Texas lost their undefeated record to UConn, 76-65 at home. Texas Tech, still in the Big Twelve, fell to Texas A&M 72-67 on Sunday.

The Bubble: Two Big Twelve teams dropped into the bubble region. BYU fell 83-64 to unheralded Providence while Utah lost 72-63 to St. Mary's at home. But the SEC was all successes here: Georgia improved their lost from a 12-seed play-in to the top 11-seed with a 69-48 win over Notre Dame, while Missouri and Mississippi scored wins over Kansas and Louisville respectively to give the Southeast Conference a gaudy TWELVE teams in our seedings. That's crazy—and probably too good to last the conference season, much like their three 1-seeds.

                                       Record             Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev 41. Georgia                SEC   8-1  19-12  18-13  51.3  +6.6   1.5  +0.8   11   12p
 42. BYU                    B12   6-2  20-11  23-8   51.2 -12.6   0.4  -3.0   11    6 
 43. Nevada                 MWC   6-3  23-8   24-7   50.7 -11.2   0.0  -0.3   11    7 
 44. Utah                   B12   6-2  19-12  23-8   50.5  -5.6   0.4  -1.9   11p   9 
 45. Washington St.         WCC   8-2  22-9   24-7   48.5 +11.6  <0.1  -0.1   11p      
 46. Missouri               SEC   8-1  19-12  18-13  46.3  +8.7   0.7  +0.3   12p     
 47. Drake                  MVC   8-0  24-5   28-1   45.2  +0.3  <0.1  -0.1   12   12 
 48. Mississippi            SEC   8-1  18-13  15-16  44.8 +10.9   0.4  +0.2   12p     /pre>

Nevada's fall was Washington State's gain, literally, as the Cougars beat the Wolf Pack 68-57 in Pullman. The Cougars also beat Boise State while Nevada lost to Loyola Marymount, the result being both teams are 11-seeds now. Drake is still undefeated but still borderline.

Boise's loss to Washington State knocks them out of the seedings but the Broncos are still in the Last Four Out, along with SMU (beat Virginia 63-51 on Saturday), San Francisco (beat St. Louis 78-61 last week), and Iowa (beat Northwestern by a point and lost at Michigan by 2 points).

                                       Record             Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 49. SMU                    ACC   8-2  21-10  24-7   44.5  +2.4   0.1   0.0           
 50. San Francisco          WCC   7-2  22-9   25-6   44.0  +1.5   0.0  -0.1           
 51. Boise St.              MWC   6-3  21-10  24-7   41.4  -7.8   0.0  -0.1        11p
 52. Iowa                   B10   7-2  18-13  16-15  40.4  +2.0   0.1  -0.3           
 53. VCU                    A10   7-2  23-8   27-4   40.2  +6.1   0.0   0.0           
 54. Arkansas               SEC   7-2  18-13  16-15  40.1  +3.7   0.3  +0.2           
 55. Indiana                B10   7-2  17-14  13-18  38.0  +6.7  <0.1  -0.2           
 56. Creighton              BE    7-3  18-13  20-11  37.8  +5.2  <0.1  -0.1           

VCU had a good week, beating Georgia Southern and Penn by 35 and 19, while Arkansas beat Miami and UTSA. Indiana beat Sam Houston and Miami (Ohio), while Creighton improved surprisingly little for beating Kansas 76-63 at home. They face Alabama this Saturday and winning that would put them back in the seedings for sure.

Two other teams dropped from last week's seedings: New Mexico and Nebraska. The Lobos lost to New Mexico State at home in overtime, and the Cornhuskers were crushed 89-52 by Michigan State, sinking their seasonal outlook to 16-13. McNeese lost to Santa Clara, putting them 4-4 on the year before beating non-D-I LeTourneau 103-69. The Cowboys are still favorites in their conference (the Southland) however. 

                                       Record             Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 58. New Mexico             MWC   7-3  21-10  23-8   35.5 -14.4   0.0  -0.1        11 
 64. Nebraska               B10   6-2  16-13  16-13  33.6 -10.1   0.2  -0.2        12p
 75. McNeese                Slnd  5-4  24-8   27-5   25.9 -10.3   0.0   0.0   12   12 
 79. Villanova              BE    6-4  17-14  16-15  21.4 +10.6   0.0   0.0           
 94. TCU                    B12   5-4  14-17  12-19  12.4 -10.3   0.0   0.0           
110. Washington             B10   6-3  14-17  10-21   8.9 -12.1   0.0  -0.1           

Villanova is 6-4 and barely projected to have a winning record, but that puts them a few wins within consideration and they're up 10% from last week after their upset of Cincinnati. TCU and Washington are both projected to have losing records and miss the tournament; the Horned Frogs are down to 12.4% after losing to Vanderbilt for a 5-4 start, while the Huskies are in single digits after losses to UCLA and USC in their inaugural Big Ten season.

2024-25 Week 2 Dance Chance update

Week 2 and we have two new #1 seeds, Gonzaga and UConn. Gonzaga still riding the wave of their big win over Baylor, UConn moving up after posting larger-margins wins over their low-ranked opponents. Auburn and Houston stay put at #1 overall seed and #2.

                                       Record             Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg  1seed %chg  seed prev
  1. Auburn                 SEC   3-0  24-5   29-0   91.0  +4.9  44.9 +10.0    1    1 
  2. Houston                B12   2-1  26-5   29-2   89.1  +6.1  36.6  +8.6    1    1 
  3. Gonzaga                WCC   3-0  25-4   28-1   86.4 +13.2  24.7 +11.6    1    2 
  4. Connecticut            BE    3-0  25-4   29-0   84.3  +4.1  25.3  +2.2    1    2  
  5. Purdue                 B10   4-0  24-6   29-1   83.0  -0.1  26.3  -7.5    2    1 
  6. Tennessee              SEC   4-0  24-6   28-2   82.4  +8.6  26.5  +9.4    2    2 
  7. Arizona                B12   2-1  22-7   28-1   80.8  -1.6  24.2  -8.5    2    1 
  8. Alabama                SEC   3-1  22-9   25-6   77.1  +7.4  19.8  -1.1    2    3 

Purdue is obviously adjusting to their new reality (our pre-season rankings were last season's rankings) and without Zack Edey they aren't a 1-seed. Still, they managed to beat Alabama 87-78 at home, but apparently that was a good thing for Alabama who moved up to a 2-seed! These seedings are prior to Purdue's loss to Marquette, so go figure. Arizona's fall from a 1-seed makes more sense, as they lost at Wisconsin 103-88.

That win boosted Wisconsin's Dance Chance by almost 13% and the Badgers move up to a 4-seed. Kentucky also got a big boost last week with a win over Duke in Atlanta, 77-72. And Cincinnati has posted three very solid wins so far, the latest over decent Nicholls, 86-49. But the big rebound of the week is Baylor, who shook off their huge Gonzaga loss with 104-67 and 104-41 wins over Sam Houston State and Tarleton State. They regained 6 of the 7 seed lines they lost in week one! Who said exciting things aren't happening in the NCAA bracket projections?

                                       Record             Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg  1seed %chg  seed prev
 10. Kentucky               SEC   3-0  23-8   24-7   72.8 +12.2  14.6  +6.5    3    4 
 14. Wisconsin              B10   4-0  21-9   25-5   65.4 +12.8   6.8  +0.9    4    5 
 17. Cincinnati             B12   3-0  22-9   24-7   61.2 +11.7   6.4  +2.1    5    6 
 20. Baylor                 B12   3-1  19-11  19-11  58.6 +16.0   7.3  +3.2    5   11  
 22. Michigan St.           B10   3-1  19-10  26-3   57.0  -2.2   4.5  -4.5    6    4 
 24. Florida Atlantic       Amer  3-2  22-7   26-3   56.2  -3.6   0.1  -3.9    6    4 

News wasn't as good for Michigan State and Florida Atlantic. The Spartans fell to Kansas in Atlanta, and the Owls dropped two of three games last week, losing to UCF by 6, to Charleston in OT, and beating Liberty in OT. 

Texas Tech and Texas jumped to the 7-line, the Red Raiders mainly due to beating Wyoming 96-49, and the Longhorns from beating two very bad teams by 40+ point margins (and moving them back ahead of the team that beat them in week 1, Ohio State). Penn State made had another big week, beating Virginia Tech 86-64 in Baltimore. The Nittany Lions started at #87 in the pre-season, jumped to a 12-seed play-in team last week, and are now a projected 8-seed. For comparison, they started at #66 in KenPom and are now #33.

                                       Record             Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg  1seed %chg  seed prev
 27. Texas Tech             B12   3-0  20-10  20-10  53.4 +10.0   4.8  +1.9    7   10 
 28. Texas                  SEC   3-1  20-10  21-9   53.4 +11.0   3.7  +2.1    7   11  
 31. Penn St.               B10   4-0  21-9   25-5   52.0 +13.2   3.2  +2.0    8   12p
 35. Creighton              BE    4-0  21-10  26-5   50.1  -1.2   3.0  -1.4    9    6 
 37. Texas A&M              SEC   3-1  19-12  19-12  48.9 +11.3   2.4  +0.9   10      
 38. San Francisco          WCC   4-0  22-8   24-6   48.0 +11.8   0.9  +0.5   10      
 39. Washington St.         WCC   3-1  21-9   23-7   48.0  -1.3   0.8  -1.6   10    7 

Creighton and Washington State fell three seeds each, the Blue Jays despite logging two blowouts. Maybe beating Houston Christian by 35 isn't enough to hold a 6-seed? I dunno. The Cougars lost to Iowa in Moline, IL 76-66, and were favored based on last season's performance; clearly the Cougars suffered an exodus due to their conference dispersing, as they ended up in the West Coast Conference. Jumping in at 10-seed is another WCC team, San Francisco who beat Chicago State 82-37, and Texas A&M who rebounded from their loss to UCF by beating Ohio State 78-64. 

The bubble:

                                       Record             Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg  1seed %chg  seed prev
 41. New Mexico             MWC   3-1  22-8   25-5   45.7  -6.1   0.4  -2.9   11    5 
 42. Oklahoma               SEC   3-0  19-10  22-7   45.7  +1.5   2.0  -0.4   11   10 
 43. San Diego St.          MWC   2-0  20-9   21-8   43.7  -5.2   0.9  -2.1   11p   7 
 44. Clemson                ACC   3-1  20-10  25-5   42.3  -6.9   0.5  -3.1   11p   7 
 45. Dayton                 A10   4-0  22-7   25-4   41.7  -6.2   0.5  -0.9   11    8  

The Mountain West race is hopefully going to be as good this year as it was last season. New Mexico opened as a 5-seed but last week's loss to St. John's (85-71) put them in their place. Another team that was great last year but not expected to do as well this season is San Diego State, and their 80-67 loss to Gonzaga has started the correction process. Oklahoma is a bubble team in their new conference, while Clemson's loss to Boise State put them on the bubble for now. Dayton is expected to win the Atlantic 10 but if they don't they might end up being a borderline at-large selection. Beating non-DI team Capitol just 76-55 does not instill confidence.

Oregon and TCU are the last two teams above the waterline. TCU lost to Michigan while Oregon needed overtime to beat Portland at home.

                                       Record             Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg  1seed %chg  seed prev
 46. Oregon                 B10   4-0  19-12  20-11  41.4  -0.6   2.1  -0.5   12p  11p
 47. TCU                    B12   3-1  18-12  20-10  41.4  -3.5   0.9  -2.1   12p  10 
 48. Memphis                Amer  3-0  19-10  22-7   39.2  +7.1   0.1   0.0           
 49. Northwestern           B10   3-1  18-12  18-12  37.4  -4.0   0.7  -1.3        12p
 50. Iowa                   B10   4-0  18-13  18-13  36.7  -2.0   1.0  -0.4           
 51. Louisiana Tech         CUSA  3-0  22-6   27-1   36.5  +5.6  <0.1   0.0   12   12 
 52. Maryland               B10   3-1  19-13  19-13  35.7  +0.6   0.4  -0.4           

There's plenty of Big Ten on the bubble with Northwestern, Iowa, and Maryland all in the First Four Out (Louisiana Tech is expected to win the CUSA). The Wildcats slipped out of their play-in spot after needing overtime to top Eastern Illinois at home, while the Hawkeyes' win over Washington State surprisingly didn't move them into the seedings (they were First Four Out last week, too). 

                                       Record             Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg  1seed %chg  seed prev
 63. Colorado St.           MWC   3-1  19-11  20-10  29.4 -12.0  <0.1  -1.2        11p
 67. Michigan               B10   2-1  15-15  10-20  26.8 +10.6   0.4  +0.3           
 84. Wake Forest            ACC   4-1  16-14  17-13  21.7 -10.7   0.1  -0.8           
100. Indiana St.            MVC   2-2  20-11  26-5   15.0 -12.2   0.0  -0.1           
123. James Madison          SB    2-2  19-9   24-4   11.3  -9.7   0.0   0.0        14 
140. Cornell                Ivy   3-1  18-9   21-6    9.0 -11.4   0.0   0.0

Other teams that made an impression last week, positive or negative, include: Colorado State, who dropped off the bubble after a 15-point loss to Mississippi; Michigan, winners over TCU; Wake Forest who fell 75-60 to Xavier; Indiana State, whose rating continues to get adjusted for this season's reality (losing to SI Edwardsville at home helped the process along); same goes for James Madison who lost to Towson 67-63; and Cornell who lost to La Salle 93-77.

2024-2025 Week 1: Auburn, Gonzaga win the first week

If you didn't get the memo, college basketball has started up and already crazy things are happening and big games are going down.

Case in point—Auburn has jumped to the overall #1 seed in the Dance Chance following a 74-69 road win over fellow 1-seed Houston. The Tigers move up from a 2-seed and the Cougars remain a 1-seed, so it's not earth-shattering by any means, but it does push Auburn's odds of finishing a 1-seed up 14.1%. Interestingly of last year's national title game contenders it was Edey-less Purdue that held their ground as a 1-seed while UConn slips to a 2-seed despite outperforming expectations in their games against low-ranked non-conference foes. Arizona held their 1-seed with a 102-44 win over Old Dominion but will be tested against Wisconsin this week.

                                       Record             Dance Chance 11/10/2024
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg  1seed %chg  seed prev
  1. Auburn                 SEC   2-0  24-5   26-3   86.1 +15.3  34.9 +14.1    1    2 
  2. Purdue                 B10   2-0  24-6   30-0   83.1  +2.2  33.8  +2.2    1    1 
  3. Houston                B12   1-1  25-6   29-2   83.0  +4.5  28.0  -2.3    1    1 
  4. Arizona                B12   2-0  23-6   29-0   82.4  +6.1  32.7  +5.0    1    1 
  5. Connecticut            BE    2-0  25-4   29-0   80.2  -4.1  23.1 -11.4    2    1 
  6. Tennessee              SEC   2-0  24-6   28-2   73.8  +2.6  17.1  -1.6    2    2 
  7. Duke                   ACC   2-0  24-7   29-2   73.2  +7.9  18.5  +3.9    2    3 
  8. Gonzaga                WCC   2-0  24-5   28-1   73.2 +13.5  13.1  +7.3    2    3 

Tennessee did well enough to hold their 2-seed while Duke moved up from a 3-seed. Moving up in spectacular fashion is Gonzaga who destroyed former 4-seed Baylor 101-63, a game they were supposed to win by just a point given pre-season ratings.

Alabama and Illinois held their 3-seeds after beating UNC Asheville 110-54 and Eastern Illinois 112-67 respectively. Alabama travels to Purdue on Friday—and then play Illinois next Wednesday. The Tide likely have the toughest non-conference schedule in the nation. North Carolina's 92-89 loss to Kansas dropped them to a 3-seed.

Rank Team                   Conf  Curr Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg  1seed %chg  seed prev
  9. Alabama                SEC   2-0  22-9   26-5   69.7  +9.6  20.9  +8.0    3    3 
 10. Illinois               B10   2-0  23-8   27-4   69.5  +8.1  15.8  +4.8    3    3 
 11. Iowa St.               B12   1-0  21-8   25-4   69.1   0.0  15.4  -4.6    3    2 
 12. North Carolina         ACC   1-1  22-8   28-2   63.1  -6.1   9.1  -8.0    3    2 
 13. Kentucky               SEC   2-0  22-9   20-11  60.6  +9.1   8.1  +1.7    4    5 
 14. Marquette              BE    2-0  22-9   26-5   60.1  +2.3   6.6  -3.4    4    4 
 15. Florida Atlantic       Amer  2-0  23-6   28-1   59.8 +16.3   4.0  +2.6    4    8 
 16. Michigan St.           B10   2-0  20-9   27-2   59.2  +5.0   9.0  +1.5    4    5 

Kentucky rode a couple of 100-point games to a 4-seed but they'll face Duke on Tuesday. The big news above is Florida Atlantic, who was a question mark coming into the season and rated an 8-seed but the Owls delivered against former 6-seed Indiana State, winning 97-64 and vaulting to a 4-seed. Note that Indiana State was an even bigger question mark, so the impact of that win will probably diminish.

Below are several other big movers who all had great first weeks. Utah State leapt off the bubble with 101-46 and 103-74 wins over Alcorn State and Charlotte. Joining the Aggies as a 6-seed is Cincinnati who had their own blowout wins including 109-54 over Arkansas Pine Bluff. Kansas' big win had more meat to it; they beat North Carolina 92-89 which improved the Jayhawks' admittedly low-ball outlook in our pre-season ratings.

Rank Team                   Conf  Curr Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg  1seed %chg  seed prev
 23. Utah St.               MWC   2-0  22-8   24-6   50.5 +15.0   3.0  +1.9    6   12p
 24. Cincinnati             B12   2-0  20-11  23-8   49.5  +9.5   4.3  +0.6    6   10 
 28. Kansas                 B12   2-0  19-12  17-14  48.5  +8.4   5.4  +0.8    7   10 
 30. Mississippi St.        SEC   2-0  20-10  24-6   47.5  +7.5   3.6  +0.4    8   11 
 32. UC Irvine              BW    3-0  25-7   32-0   47.5 +16.3   0.3  +0.2    8   12 

Mississippi State beat two Georgia schools (West- and -State) by a combined 70 points, while UC Irvine won three games. Two were over D-I opponents (Loyola Marymount and Northern Iowa) they were "supposed" to beat by 5 points and 1 point; instead they won by 15 and 20. 

The Bubble: meaningless right now but always interesting. Baylor fell here from a 4-seed as they were crushed so bad by Gonzaga their projected record (Chalk) fell from 22-8 to 17-13. Texas lost to Ohio State, 80-72 in Las Vegas, dumping the Longhorns from a 7 to an 11 and elevating the Buckeyes to the same seed. Colorado State fell 3 seeds due toneeding overtime to beat Tennessee State at home.

Rank Team                   Conf  Curr Proj   Chalk %Odds  %chg  1seed %chg  seed prev
 41. Baylor                 B12   1-1  18-12  17-13  42.6 -12.3   4.1  -5.7   11    4 
 42. Ohio St.               B10   1-0  18-13  21-10  42.5  +9.4   2.7  +0.2   11      
 43. Texas                  SEC   1-1  19-11  21-9   42.4  -2.3   1.6  -1.5   11    7 
 44. Oregon                 B10   2-0  19-12  20-11  42.0  +8.7   2.6  +1.1   11p     
 45. Colorado St.           MWC   2-0  20-10  24-6   41.4  -2.0   1.3  -1.1   11p   8 
 46. Northwestern           B10   1-1  18-12  19-11  41.4  +6.9   2.0  +0.7   12p     
 47. Penn St.               B10   2-0  19-11  20-10  38.8 +16.5   1.2  +0.9   12p     
 48. Iowa                   B10   2-0  19-12  17-14  38.7  +5.8   1.4  +0.3        
 49. Texas A&M              SEC   1-1  18-13  18-13  37.6  +4.7   1.5  -0.6        
 50. Nebraska               B10   2-0  17-12  16-13  37.0  -3.7   1.7  -1.1        10
 51. San Francisco          WCC   2-0  21-9   22-8   36.2  +5.3   0.4   0.0  

Joining Ohio State in the seed-line is Oregon, as well as fellow Big Ten (18?) teams Northwestern and Penn State. The Wildcats' outlook improved from a 5-point road loss to 8-seed Dayton, while the Nittany Lions had the biggest improvement in Dance Chance odds (up 16.5%) after beating Binghamton 108-66 and UMBC 103-54, games they were forecast to win by 19 and 17 points. Adding to the Big Ten bum rush is first-team-out Iowa and 3rd team out Nebraska, who fell from a 10-seed mostly due to only beating Bethune-Cookman by 5 points at home.

The teams below had mixed results but improved or declined by double figures. Wake Forest was on the negative side despite three wins; the Deacons underperformed in all three by an average of 15 points. Even worse was Indiana State but that was expected, if that makes any sense. Our pre-season rankings just go by last year's results, and the Sycamores are a completely different team. They fell to Florida Atlantic 97-64. James Madison underperformed for the same reason, even losing to Norfolk State 83-69 (but still the Sun Belt favorite for now). Louisiana Tech and UC San Diego were on the plus side, though. The Bulldogs won twice and we favor them in all but 2 games this year. The Tritons lost to 7-seed San Diego State by just 5 points on the road. 

Rank Team                   Conf  Curr Proj   Chalk %Odds  %chg  1seed %chg  seed prev
 57. Wake Forest            ACC   3-0  18-12  20-10  32.4 -10.9   0.9  -1.8         8
 60. Louisiana Tech         CUSA  2-0  21-7   26-2   30.9 +11.1  <0.1  +0.1   12   13
 66. Indiana St.            MVC   1-1  22-9   27-4   27.2 -20.5   0.1  -1.3         6
 76. UC San Diego           BW    1-1  20-10  26-4   23.5 +10.0  <0.1  +0.1        
 85. James Madison          SB    1-1  21-7   25-3   21.0 -12.8   0.0  -0.2   14   12
 86. Villanova              BE    2-1  17-13  16-14  20.8 -17.9  <0.1  -1.9        11p
 98. Xavier                 BE    2-0  16-14  15-15  17.2 -10.6  <0.1  -1.0        
101. Seton Hall             BE    1-1  15-14  15-14  17.0 -15.0   0.0  -0.9        
110. Butler                 BE    1-1  15-15  14-16  15.0 -11.0  <0.1  -0.2     

Four teams in the Big East hit the skids: Villanova lost to Columbia 90-80 at home and lost their 11-seed; Xavier struggled a bit with IU Indianapolis (formerly known as IUPUI, #361 in Strength); Seton Hall lost at home to Fordham, 57-56; and Butler lost at home to Austin Peay. Based on just these early results it's safe to say the Big East is down a notch or two this season.

Rank Team                   Conf  Curr Proj   Chalk %Odds  %chg  1seed %chg  seed prev
127. Richmond               A10   1-1  15-13  17-11  11.5 -11.4   0.0  -0.1        
128. Saint Joseph's         A10   1-1  16-13  19-10  11.4 -10.9   0.0  -0.1        
147. Appalachian St.        SB    1-2  19-11  25-5    9.0 -16.1   0.0  -0.1        
162. Vermont                AE    1-2  20-11  26-5    6.7 -10.9   0.0   0.0        14
175. Morehead St.           OVC   1-2  21-10  27-4    5.7 -10.3   0.0   0.0   16   14

A few more underperformers above. Richmond and St. Joe's didn't do the A-10 any favors last week. The Spiders lost to Marist, 79-72 at home, while the Hawks lost to Central Connecticut 73-67. Bad non-conference losses make it harder for a league like the Atlantic 10 to get at-large bids, so these results matter. 

Appalachian State lost twice, to Miami Ohio and Wisconsin, putting the Mountaineers more in line with this season's reality (they were 27-7 last year, a feat unlikely to be replicated). Vermont fell to top seed Auburn 94-43, and then to Merrimack 65-51. The Catamounts lost their America East leadership position, while Morehead State held on in the OVC despite their 2 losses to Louisville (93-45) and Cincinnati (83-56).

WOW Gonzaga

Gonzaga 101, Baylor 63

There were a lot of blowouts among Monday's season-openers, but most were ranked teams beating teams you don't hear much about for the rest of the year.

Like Alabama 110, UNC-Asheville 54.
Or Houston 97, Jackson State 40.
Marquette 102, Stony Brook 62
Cincinnati 109, Arkansas Pine-Bluff 54
Kentucky 103, Wright State 62

You get it. But Gonzaga beating Baylor by 38 is a statement. Baylor was #11 pre-season in Kenpom and #8 in the pre-season AP poll. And Gonzaga beat them like they were Siena, Stonehill, or Pacific. In fact they only beat Pacific 102-76 last year.

So Gonzaga is good, probably better than the 3-seed we started them as. Or maybe Baylor isn't a 4-seed this year? That's probably closer to the truth. The Zags beat expectations by 36 points, but more of that might be the Bears being overrated.

Let's assume that half the margin was outlier, so a 17-point win really represents how the teams stand. The most credit we give Gonzaga is about 7 points and they're close to being the best team in the country. Take away the same from Baylor and they're a bubble team.

To whom it may concern: All three 11-seeds won yesterday

I've been harping on the fact that 11-seeds are great picks forever now, and I take them all the time. Well not all the time because this round I only took 2 of the 3 yesterday, but I should have taken all 4 because ALL THREE 11-SEEDS WON in the first round!

11-seed NC State? Beat 6-seed Texas Tech 80-67.

11-seed Oregon? Beat 6-seed South Carolina 87-73.

11-seed Duquesne beat 6-seed BYU 71-67.

There's one more 6- vs 11- left, Clemson vs. New Mexico. But even if Clemson wins that one, it's 3 of 4 for the 11-seed.

Since 2011, 11-seeds are an amazing 26 of 51. They've topped 50% now in that time frame. Even if New Mexico loses, that's exactly 50%. For what should be a pretty good victory clip for the 6-seed, you would think!

Before 2011 (that is, from 1985 to 2010) 11-seeds were a pedestrian 35 of 104, or just 33.7%.

What changed? I'm not sure but the tournament expanded to 68 teams from 64 in 2011, causing a shift in what an 11-seed is. It should have perhaps diluted the 11-seed spot, as more teams were just added to the bottom, and had to play-in. Play-in teams have had solid success, but 11-seeds overall do better than just 11-seed play-in teams, so it's not just a phenomenon of "getting winning momentum" off the bat.

Not many people are noticing how good the 11-seeds are because the full stats from 1985 (as of last year) still show a 38.2% win percentage for 11-seeds, which looks decent but not alarming. 50% looks alarming!

Now, in back to back years, three 11-seeds have won, with a game remaining, making the "all-time" odds for a 6-seed 60.9% . All three 7-seeds beat 10-seeds yesterday, so those odds (from 1985-2024) are now 61.7%. No matter what happens tomorrow, the odds of a 6-seed winning in the first round are now LOWER than the odds of a 7-seed winning.

That's never happened before (outside of the tossup 8 vs. 9 spot). Imagine the odds of a 3-seed winning their opening game being better than the odds of a 2-seed.

This is going to wake people up. When they see the '85-'24 stats next year when doing their brackets, they'll see the weirdness of the bottom line number NOT increasing as you do down the seeds. Finally, they will note the power of the 11-seed.

But they might not know it's really a 50/50 game. It will still show the 6-seed as a 61% favorite. But you will know. You will know.

Quick pick: Ohio State vs. St. John's in the NIT finals

This year the NIT almost looks more exciting to me than the NCAA tournament, given all the cool teams that got left out of the Big Dance.

Cases in point: the two hottest teams in the country, both spurred by coaching decisions

• Ohio State, who came to life with new coach Jake Diebler, going on a 6-2 run that included a win over 1-seed Purdue
• St. John's, who came to life after Rick Pitino gave them a tongue lashing, winning six in a row before falling to 1-seed UConn

Seriously, the Red Storm needed to beat the overall top seed to get a bid? How stupid is that. The Committee needs to explicitly take recent play into account and add teams like these two, I was hoping at least one of them might make it but nope, can't have a fun tournament. And no, that doesn't mean I favor some ridiculous expansion scheme that will destroy the tournament.

Both teams are on an incredible tear (playing top 10 basketball lately), and both should still be motivated for the NIT despite not making the NCAA, since there was a time that both teams considered their NCAA odds to be zero (after St. John's lost 8 of 10 and their coach ranted at them, and after Ohio State lost 9 of 11 and their coach got fired).

Can't see them play in the Big Dance but you can follow them in the NIT.

UPDATE: St. John's refused the bid. We can't have any fun, can we? I guess I take the Buckeyes to win it.

Is UConn 2024 = Florida 2007? And what about Iowa State's win over Houston?

People have been making the comparison between UConn of 2024 and Florida 2007, saying the Huskies have the best chance to repeat since that Florida team. Well, that's true by definition, since no team has repeated since Florida of 2007 and UConn has a chance to. But is that the correct team to compare them to?

And what of Iowa State's 28-point blowout of #1 Houston? The comparison made there has been UCLA's 32-point blowout of #1 Houston in 1968. Is that what we should be referencing, a game from 56 years ago?

UConn 2024 = Florida 2007 or Villanova 2017?

Starting with the Huskies, who just rose to #1 on KenPom, let's look at not just 2007 Florida but all the teams since then who tried to repeat and whether some of them might be more applicable.

Year Team       Rec   Seed     Kenpom   NCAA finish
2007 Florida    29-5  1-seed*  #3	won NCAA
2011 Duke       30-4  1-seed   #2	Sweet 16
2014 Louisville 29-5  4-seed   #1	Sweet 16
2017 Villanova  31-3  1-seed*  #2	Round of 32
2022 Baylor     26-6  1-seed   #4	Round of 32
2023 Kansas     27-7  1-seed   #9	Round of 32
2024 UConn      31-3, 1-seed*  #1	???

Since Florida of 2007, 4 defending champs have nabbed a 1-seed, putting them in an elite group trying to repeat. We also include 2014 Louisville because they were #1 on Kenpom, even though they only got a crazy 4-seed.

The comparison to Florida is pretty well-deserved, as the Gators were the overall 1-seed (we're assuming that's the case with UConn). They were only #3 on KenPom. They had all five starters back, though, as we've pointed out in a prior article.

This is why we think the better comparison is with 2017 Villanova. Also the overall 1-seed, they even share UConn's 31-3 record and Big East tournament win. They returned 3 starters (UConn returns 2), and improved on the previous year's record. They looked set to repeat! But they lost in the Round of 32.

Recent years haven't been kind to 1-seed defending champs, and none since Florida has made it past the Sweet Sixteen. Will UConn break the streak?

Houston 2024 = Houston 1968 or St. Joe's 2004?

Now Houston. And Iowa State.

I don't think you have equate Houston 2024 to Houston 1968. Or Houston 1983, or any other Houston team except the recent Cougars.

And Iowa State certainly isn't UCLA with Lew Alcindor.

The game that comes to mind for me is Xavier beating St. Joe's 87-67, when St. Joe's was #1 and undefeated. It was the most lopsided win by an unranked team over a #1 team ever, and it was much worse than the final score. Xavier led by 37 points at one time. It was the kind of beatdown that causes a reckoning, the kind people are saying Houston needs after such an extreme loss. 

So what happened to St. Joe's in the NCAA tournament? And Xavier?

1-seed St. Joe's had a decent run, getting to the Elite Eight before losing by two to Oklahoma State.

Xavier also had a good run as a 7-seed, beating 10-seed Louisville, 2-seed Mississippi State, and 3-seed Texas before falling to 1-seed Duke in the Elite Eight.

So that's not such a bad outcome—for either team. Unless getting to the Final Four and/or winning it all is your do-or-die goal, in which case the Elite Eight is probably a disappointment. Houston would probably see the Elite Eight as moderately disappointing after this season, while Iowa State fans would be pretty happy—but might want more now.

Who is the overall top seed? Houston no longer a shoo-in

In addition to the debate over who deserves the fourth 1-seed, we now need to have a talk about the overall top seed.

According to the Dance Chance, Houston was pulling away from Purdue and UConn, who were essentially tied for 2nd place.

Then Purdue lost, taking themselves out of the mix.

Then Houston lost—and not just lost, but lost by 27 points.

With UConn's win over Marquette, do they pass Houston?

In real life (i.e. the Committee), UConn probably takes it. In our Dance Chance formula, it gets really close but Houston still gets the nod. Purdue will be #3 on the S-curve in both situations.

 

Does Temple's win shrink the bubble? Not if FAU is left out

No one is addressing the possibility that Florida Atlantic might miss the tournament after losing to Temple. Yes, we know that the consensus says FAU is in the tournament, but they might be closer to the cut line than people think, and they just added a loss to a 16-19 team.

Last year's FAU was 31-3 and got a 9-seed. This year's team is 25-8. Can a team take 5 extra losses and still get an 11-seed?

Probably a team can, if they got to the Final Four the previous year. If not for that, I don't think they make it.

So the bubble probably does shrink, and FAU might get the same 9-seed at 25-8 that they got at 31-3, but I think they might get a 10- or 11-seed—maybe even have to play-in.

But according to the Dance Chance, the Owls aren't going to make it.

We're disagreeing a lot more this year with the consensus than ever before...which makes me think the Committee is also going to conflict with the consensus a lot. The bubble is extremely hard to pick this year. There are going to be some surprises!

Coming up tonight: the real bubble-buster games: Oregon vs. Colorado, and NC State vs. UNC. Colorado and UNC are in for sure—I think!—so wins by the Ducks and the Wolfpack would make the already-shrinking bubble even smaller.

Final 1-seed: UNC or Tennessee? What about Iowa State?

Two days of basketball left before the seedings are announced, and the 1-seeds have been 75% settled for a while. 

But that last one, wow.

Tennessee lost to Mississippi State yesterday, putting North Carolina in the driver's seat for the last 1-pick.

Right?

                                                 3/14   3/10          Seed  Seed  Seed
Rank Team                   Conf  Rec    %Odds   %Chg   %Chg  1-seed  3/15  3/14  3/10
  1. Houston                B12   30-3   100.0    0.0    0.0   99.6    1     1     1  
  2. Purdue                 B10   29-3   100.0    0.0    0.0   98.7    1     1     1  
  3. Connecticut            BE    30-3   100.0    0.0    0.0   95.6    1     1     1  
  4. Iowa St.               B12   26-7   100.0    0.0    0.0   35.5    1     2     2  
  5. North Carolina         ACC   27-6   100.0    0.0    0.0   34.5    2     2     2  
  6. Tennessee              SEC   24-8   100.0    0.0    0.0   31.1    2     1     1  
  7. Auburn                 SEC   25-7   100.0    0.0    0.0    3.0    2     3     3  
  8. Arizona                P12   25-8   100.0    0.0    0.0    1.8    2     2     2  
  9. Marquette              BE    25-8   100.0    0.0    0.0    0.4    3     3     3  

Dance Chance for games through 3/15/2024

Our latest Dance Chance does put North Carolina ahead of Tennessee...but Iowa State jumps over the Tar Heels. North Carolina's 72-65 win over Pitt just didn't give them as much of a boost as the Cyclones' 76-62 win over Baylor, who was a 2-seed just yesterday.

Now, in addition to the almost-certain trio at the top, Iowa State, North Carolina, and Tennessee are in a near 3-way tie for the last 1-seed. It looks like Iowa State will get the last 1-seed if they beat Houston. Otherwise, North Carolina takes it with an ACC title win over North Carolina State. If both fail, it goes to Tennessee.

At least, that's what will happen according to the Dance Chance, which really seems to like Big Twelve teams. The Strength of Schedule of that league is something else, and it's reflected in Iowa State's ranking. Now, as to whether the Selection Committee will see things the same, we don't know. If North Carolina wins the ACC, they probably get the 1-seed in reality. Iowa State probably needs the Tar Heels to slip up.

Does anyone else have a shot? We show Auburn having a ghost of a chance, and if they win the SEC they'll be in the discussion but that's probably about it; most Bracketologists still have the Tigers as a 4-seed. Marquette winning the Big East might register a bit, but they probably won't get too far past Arizona, who had a clear path to a 1-seed before they lost 2 of their last 3.

UPDATE: With Iowa State's incredibly dominant win over Houston, the Cyclones are pretty much a certain Dance Chance #1-seed. Whether the Committee follows our sage advice is another matter entirely :)

The Bubble on 3/15/2024: After Dayton loss, too many teams chasing too few spots

Here's the bubble on the morning of Friday, March 15, 2024, as seen by the Dance Chance:

                                                 3/13   3/10          Seed  Seed  Seed
Rank Team                   Conf  Rec    %Odds   %Chg   %Chg  1-seed  3/14  3/13  3/10
 37. Pittsburgh             ACC   22-10   65.9   +5.4   +4.0    --    10    12p   11p 
 38. Dayton                 A10   24-7    65.9  -13.8  -14.3    --    10     9     9  
 39. Northwestern           B10   21-10   65.4   -2.9   -5.3    --    10    10    10  
 40. Virginia               ACC   23-9    61.7   +0.9   -2.3    --    10    11p   11  

Does everyone really think Pittsburgh isn't in the field after beating Wake? They look like a solid 10-seed right now, and probably can survive a loss to North Carolina in today's game. But thank Dayton for the compression in percentage odds we see here. The Flyers' loss to Duquesne didn't kick them out of the field but it shrank the bubble by one key slot. Now even Northwestern and Virginia have to sweat losing today, though the Wildcats are probably ok if they fall to Wisconsin, and the Cavaliers caught a break—they face N.C. State instead of Duke (that's two breaks, if you count surviving Boston College in overtime).

                                                 3/13   3/10          Seed  Seed  Seed
Rank Team                   Conf  Rec    %Odds   %Chg   %Chg  1-seed  3/14  3/13  3/10
 41. Ohio St.               B10   20-12   60.8   +6.2   +2.7    --    11    12p   12p 
 42. Florida Atlantic       Amer  24-7    59.4   -7.5  -11.0    --    11    10    10  
 43. Oklahoma               B12   20-12   58.1   -4.8   -9.8    --    11p   11    10  
 44. Seton Hall             BE    20-12   56.2   -5.7   -6.5    --    11p   11    11p 
 45. St. John's             BE    20-12   55.9  +10.7   +7.9    --    11p             
 46. Indiana St.            MVC   28-6    55.8   -9.0   -9.6    --    11p   11    11  

This is crunch time at the bubble, and every team is an 11-seed now, and the waterline is at #46 in the S-curve. Ohio State beat Iowa and rose to the top 11-seed, though other Bracketologists are loathe to put the Buckeyes in the field. They also play Illinois today and that might seal their fate one way or another. Florida Atlantic didn't even play and dropped to an 11-seed as other teams gained wins that helped them pass the Owls, something that also happened to Indiana State, who is suddenly in a lot of trouble! Mid-majors don't benefit a lot from their wins, so the Owls had better win the American, and the Sycamores just have to pray. It seems that Toledo's loss in the MAC tournament hurt them, as that was one of their better neutral-court wins. They looked fine after losing to Drake, but now they're right on the cusp.

Ironically Oklahoma looks to be in decent shape just because they can't lose any more games. Unlike St. John's who has to face UConn and doesn't have a lot of room to spare. Another irony—the Red Storm just beat Seton Hall who may hold on to their spot. Sometimes the Committee looks at situations like this and makes a call, though, when something like losing to a 1-seed hurts your NET—or RPI back in the day (though just playing a 1-seed often helped your RPI, so that was the one situation where RPI was a "better" tool!)

                                                 3/13   3/10          Seed  Seed  Seed
Rank Team                   Conf  Rec    %Odds   %Chg   %Chg  1-seed  3/14  3/13  3/10
 47. Mississippi St.        SEC   20-12   54.6   +7.2   +3.7    --                12p 
 48. Wake Forest            ACC   20-13   53.3  -16.5   -9.8    --          10    11  
 49. Michigan St.           B10   19-13   50.6  +12.9  +11.4    --                    
 50. Providence             BE    21-12   50.3  +12.3  +16.2    --                    
 51. Princeton              Ivy   24-3    50.2   -0.8   -3.8    --    12    12    12  
 52. Texas A&M              SEC   19-13   48.7   +7.2   +4.7    --                    
 53. Cincinnati             B12   20-14   46.2  -14.7  +14.1    --          11p       

Just beneath the waterline we see a large number of teams showing >50% odds, which shouldn't be the case. But the early days of the Major conference tournaments see this situation: bubble teams get a lot of wins—bumping up their odds—and then the hangover comes the day after when most of them lose the next game, deflating their odds. We're in the inflation stage now, and that fact—plus the bubble shrinking—puts a lot of underwater teams above 50% at the moment. The odds for the teams that didn't make it here are extra-low, as we'll see in a bit.

In any case, Mississippi State has been just below or at the waterline all this week, and beating LSU wasn't enough to put them back in (thanks to Dayton). Now they have to beat Tennessee if they want in, or get grace from the Committee which could happen according to the consensus. Wake Forest doesn't have the consensus on its side, however. A few days ago we projected that they could survive a loss to Pitt but that might not be the case any more.

Michigan State boosted their odds above 50% with the win at Minnesota, but they're still in the First Four Out in the Dance Chance. According to everyone else, it seems, the win sealed their bid. We aren't sure they don't need to beat Purdue, but I guess 19-14 is good enough if you're the Spartans. Providence is also slightly above 50% after upsetting Creighton, but now they have to face Marquette and unlike Michigan State the consensus isn't on the Friars' side. 

All of this winning by Major conference bubble teams has pushed Princeton down a few notches, but we established a while ago that if they lose at any time in the Ivy tournament their odds get cut in half basically. Probably more, now that the bubble shrank.

Texas A&M beat Mississippi again and it helped a bit, but losing to Kentucky would put them right back where they were. This is what happened to Cincinnati, who jumped 28% with wins over West Virginia and (mainly) Kansas, but whose loss to Baylor knocked them out of the Last Four In. Again, a few days ago it looked like they'd survive the loss, but luck wasn't on their side (and they were always at a disadvantage trying to be the 10th Big Twelve team).

                                                 3/13   3/10          Seed  Seed  Seed
Rank Team                   Conf  Rec    %Odds   %Chg   %Chg  1-seed  3/14  3/13  3/10
 54. James Madison          SB    31-3    39.1   -4.5   -2.5    --    12    12    12  
 55. Grand Canyon           WAC   27-4    28.2   -2.8   -9.8    --    12    12    12  
 56. Utah                   P12   19-14   28.0  -16.6   +1.4    --                    
 57. Oregon                 P12   21-11   27.2   -0.4   -3.8    --                    
 58. McNeese St.            Slnd  30-3    26.7   -2.3   -1.3    --    12    13    13  
 59. Syracuse               ACC   20-12   21.5   +1.7  -12.0    --                    
 60. Villanova              BE    18-15   21.3   -9.5   -8.6    --                    
 61. Kansas St.             B12   19-14   20.4  -15.3    0.0    --                    
 62. N.C. State             ACC   20-14   17.6  +17.6  +17.6    --                    
 63. Samford                SC    29-5    13.7   -4.9   -3.5    --    13    13    13  

There are a lot of conference leaders here, and three of them—James Madison, McNeese State, and Samford—have sealed their auto-bid. Grand Canyon starts their WAC bid today. Even getting to their tournament finals and losing shrinks their odds, so they need to win it.

The Pac-12's hopes for a 4th team are here too, so in other words the Pac-12 is looking like a 3-bid conference. Utah's hopes were crushed pretty bad by Colorado, who wanted to make sure the conference even had a 3rd team. Oregon is still alive after beating UCLA 68-66, which impressed the Dance Chance to the tune of losing 0.4%. It appears that even beating Arizona today wouldn't put the Ducks in the field; they need to win the whole shebang.

The ACC has a few teams here. Syracuse lost to NC State in their first AC tourney game and dropped to around the 20% level, leaving them some small hope; meanwhile the team that beat them was still sitting at <0.1—until they upset Duke yesterday, which put them on the map. I didn't even cover the Wolfpack in the Bubble Odds report since they weren't on the radar. But now they are, so here goes: lose to Virginia and their odds drop under 10%. Beat Virginia and lose to UNC: odds remain around 20%. Beat North Carolina, they get the auto-bid. So it's pretty much all or nothing when you come out of nowhere.

Kansas State tried to come out of nowhere a few weeks ago, starting with an upset of Iowa State. Then they beat Texas in the first round of the Big Twelve tournament and went from 20% odds to 35%. But a loss to Iowa State knocked them right back down to 20%.

Villanova almost got sent straight to zero percent against 3-28 DePaul but they won by a point; then they battled Creighton nobly but fell by two points. That's quite a range the Wildcats have, to play both those teams so tight.

                                                 3/13   3/10          Seed  Seed  Seed
Rank Team                   Conf  Rec    %Odds   %Chg   %Chg  1-seed  3/14  3/13  3/10
 64. Virginia Tech          ACC   18-14   12.0   -1.8  -13.8    --                    
 65. Iowa                   B10   18-14   10.0  -13.6  -17.1    --                    
 66. Bradley                MVC   22-11    7.2   -2.6   -5.3    --                    
 67. Butler                 BE    18-14    6.4   -0.5  -19.5    --                    
 68. Memphis                Amer  22-10    4.9  -13.5  -19.8    --                    
 69. Richmond               A10   23-9     2.7   -8.3  -11.0    --                    
 70. Appalachian St.        SB    27-6     2.3   -3.8   -5.3    --                    
 71. Mississippi            SEC   20-12    1.8   -3.5   -5.3    --                    
 72. UC Irvine              BW    24-8     0.1   -2.7   -5.2    --    13    13    13  
 73. UNLV                   MWC   19-12   <0.1  -10.4  -13.6    --                    

This is pretty much the graveyard of the bubble. Every team here had their odds decrease, either from losing, or the bubble shrinking, or from teams above winning and "sopping up" the odds from the lower rungs. Virginia Tech's drop occurred on Wednesday with a loss to Florida State, while Iowa had a make or break date with Ohio State yesterday that went sour for the Hawkeyes. Bradley lost a week ago in the Missouri Valley tournament and yet they're still sliding. Same with Butler, who lost on Wednesday to Xavier.

Memphis was upset by Wichita State yesterday which pretty much ended their hopes. And Richmond would have been the Atlantic 10's heir apparent after Dayton's loss, but they lost to St. Joe's, which left the Spiders an extremely long shot for a bid. They're barely ahead of Appalachian State, who still shows a few percentage points of hope as an at-large from the Sun Belt. At 27-6, they deserve a glance at least!

Mississippi's hopes all but evaporated with another loss to Texas A&M. UC Irvine is the last team that shows measurable odds, but if they lose in the Big West tournament that goes to 0.0.

Finally there's UNLV, who had a heck of a run all February trying to become the 7th(!) team from the Mountain West in the tournament. They were 10-1 in that stretch before losing to Nevada, and they took San Diego State into overtime in the conference tournament before losing. That basically ends their hope for an NCAA bid but no one is going to want to face the Rebels in the NIT.

pre-Championship week 2024: A 1-seed up for grabs; plus Big Ten, Missouri Valley bubble drama

Well the regular season is over and we have a few surprises in the Dance Chance going into major conference tournament week. Get this: right now Michigan State is out—but Ohio State is in! And both Drake and Indiana State are in—for now. And the final 1-seed is up for grabs. Let's start there, using the Dance Chance through games of Sunday, March 10:

                                                 3day   7day          Seed  Seed
Rank Team                   Conf  Rec    %Odds   %Chg   %Chg  1-seed  3/10  3/03
  1. Houston                B12   28-3   100.0    0.0    0.0   97.7    1     1  
  2. Purdue                 B10   28-3   100.0    0.0    0.0   98.6    1     1  
  3. Connecticut            BE    28-3   100.0    0.0    0.0   84.7    1     1  
  4. Tennessee              SEC   24-7   100.0    0.0    0.0   60.4    1     1  
  5. North Carolina         ACC   25-6   100.0    0.0    0.0   20.3    2     2  
  6. Iowa St.               B12   24-7   100.0    0.0    0.0   17.4    2     2  
  7. Arizona                P12   24-7   100.0    0.0    0.0   19.8    2     2  
  8. Creighton              BE    23-8   100.0    0.0    0.0    0.6    2     3  
  9. Kansas                 B12   22-9   100.0    0.0    0.0    0.2    3     2  

Very little changed here even after all the chaos among the 2-seeds. Houston and Purdue are still flip-flopping for top overall seed, with Purdue on top mid-week but Houston regaining the lead with their (very predictable) 30-point win over former 2-seed Kansas. UConn kept winning and stayed solid as a 1-seed, but Tennessee got clocked by Kentucky at home and...remained a 1-seed for now. That's because Arizona, a 1-seed just a few weeks ago, lost to USC 78-65, a much worse ding on their résumé than a 4-point loss to UK. Iowa State was waiting in the wings but they lost at Kansas State.

North Carolina did surge into the top 2-seed spot by beating Duke at Cameron Indoor, and if they win the ACC and Tennessee doesn't win the SEC, look for the Tar Heels to be the last 1-seed. ISU and Arizona are still in play if both of the above falter. Meanwhile Creighton beat Marquette by 14 and got a buzzer-beater to top Villanova, and the Jays swapped places with the Jayhawks, the only movement in the top 2 seeds; both have a very outside chance as we see it.

                                                 3day   7day          Seed  Seed
Rank Team                   Conf  Rec    %Odds   %Chg   %Chg  1-seed  3/10  3/03
 10. Auburn                 SEC   24-7   100.0    0.0    0.0   <0.1    3     4  
 11. Marquette              BE    23-8   100.0    0.0    0.0   <0.1    3     3  
 12. Baylor                 B12   22-9   100.0    0.0    0.0    0.1    3     3  
 13. Duke                   ACC   24-7   100.0    0.0    0.0    0.2    4     3  
 14. Kentucky               SEC   23-8   100.0    0.0    0.0    --     4     5  
 15. BYU                    B12   22-9   100.0    0.0    0.0    --     4     4  
 16. Alabama                SEC   21-10  100.0    0.0    0.0    --     4     4  
 17. Clemson                ACC   21-10  100.0    0.0   +0.1    --     5     5  
 18. Illinois               B10   23-8   100.0    0.0    0.0    --     5     4  

Duke dropped a seed from the 84-79 defeat, and Auburn took advantage to jump to a 3-seed after two easy wins. Marquette and Baylor hold as 3-seeds despite stumbles to Creighton and Texas Tech respectively. The only swap in the 4 vs. 5 line is Kentucky surging from their win at Tennessee and Illinois slipping from their home loss to Purdue. BYU and Alabama held as 4-seeds, though both lost early in the weeks. BYU fell at Iowa State and Alabama got crushed 105-87 at Florida, but both notched a home win to end the week. Clemson had a solid win over Syracuse that put them at the 100% mark, then lost at Wake Forest and remained a 5-seed.

                                                 3day   7day          Seed  Seed
Rank Team                   Conf  Rec    %Odds   %Chg   %Chg  1-seed  3/10  3/03
 19. Nevada                 MWC   26-6   >99.9    0.0   +3.7    --     5     6  
 20. Gonzaga                WCC   24-6   >99.9   +0.1   +0.2    --     5     5  
 21. San Diego St.          MWC   22-9    98.4   -1.5   -1.5    --     6     5  
 22. Texas Tech             B12   22-9    97.7   +9.0  +14.0    --     6     8  
 23. Utah St.               MWC   26-5    97.1   -0.5   +0.7    --     6     6  
 24. Boise St.              MWC   22-9    94.7   +4.1   -2.7    --     6     6  
 25. Nebraska               B10   22-9    92.8   +0.5   +2.1    --     7     7  
 26. New Mexico             MWC   22-9    91.9   -6.4   -1.3    --     7     7  
 27. South Carolina         SEC   25-6    88.7   -1.2   -2.2    --     7     7  
 28. Texas                  B12   20-11   88.0  +13.6   +9.0    --     7     9  
 29. Colorado St.           MWC   22-9    86.2   -3.9   -0.6    --     8     8  
 30. TCU                    B12   20-11   86.0  -13.0  -10.6    --     8     6  

We're once again in the Mountain West Zone. All six teams from the MWC are here. Whereas other bracketologists have these teams spread out—some higher, a few quite a bit lower—the Dance Chance doesn't really see much distinction between these teams, and they've rotated turns at the top of the conference. Right now it's Nevada's turn after the Wolf Pack ended the season on a 7-game streak, beating Boise State and UNLV and jumping to a 5-seed. Meanwhile San Diego State—everyone else's top MWC dog—laid an egg this week losing to both those same teams, first the Rebels then the Broncos, knocking the Aztecs to a 6-seed.

Boise State and Utah State are both 6-seeds now, after the Broncos 1-1 week and the Aggies won twice, over San Jose State and New Mexico. Speaking of the Lobos, they're the team that most people have on the bubble but here they're still a fairly solid 7-seed despite losing three of their last four games. And Colorado State made their case by winning twice this week too. The conference tournament is going to be madness!

In Big Twelve news here, new 6-seed Texas Tech had a great week, beating Oklahoma State and 3-seed Baylor. And while 7-seed Texas lost to Baylor on the road they benefitted more from beating Oklahoma and jumped 2-seeds as well. But TCU did the reverse, falling to an 8-seed after a 79-77 home loss to Central Florida.

                                                 3day   7day          Seed  Seed
Rank Team                   Conf  Rec    %Odds   %Chg   %Chg  1-seed  3/10  3/03
 31. Saint Mary's           WCC   24-7    82.8   -1.5   +2.7    --     8     9  
 32. Florida                SEC   21-10   82.2  -14.9   +2.9    --     8     9  
 33. Wisconsin              B10   19-12   80.7   -1.0   +0.1    --     9     8  
 34. Washington St.         P12   23-8    80.5   -4.5  -14.1    --     9     7  
 35. Dayton                 A10   24-6    80.2   +1.6   +1.4    --     9     9  
 36. Drake                  MVC   28-6    77.2  +19.6  +19.5    --     9    11  
 37. Colorado               P12   22-9    76.9   +6.4  +17.5    --    10    11  
 38. Northwestern           B10   21-10   70.8   +2.9   +1.9    --    10    10  
 39. Florida Atlantic       Amer  24-7    70.4   +5.7  +11.0    --    10    11  
 40. Oklahoma               B12   20-11   67.8   -2.1   -1.1    --    10    10  
 41. Indiana St.            MVC   28-6    65.4   +7.6   +5.8    --    11    10  
 42. Virginia               ACC   22-9    64.0   +4.5   +6.5    --    11    11p 
 43. Wake Forest            ACC   19-12   63.1   +9.6  -10.1    --    11    10  

Last I checked the bracketologists still have Wisconsin as a 6-seed, the top 6-seed in fact. We have the Badgers falling another line to a 9-seed as their loss to Purdue, while understandable, is their 8th in 11 outings. Yes we know they beat Marquette! 

And Washington State's surge got derailed a bit with a home loss to rival Washington, of all teams. With Colorado up to a 10-seed after closing on a 6-game win streak, it appears that the Pac-12 will have three teams after all.

And get this: right now we have both Missouri Valley champs Drake up to a 9-seed (barely) and runner-up Indiana State holding on as an 11-seed. Winning three games boosted Drake's odds +20% (though now they don't need it) and going 2-1 in the tournament ended up a plus for the Sycamores as well. It's likely both teams will "slide" a bit as other major conference teams build up tournament wins, but right now it looks good—according to the Dance Chance. We'll see what the Committee thinks in a week.

Two teams went on wild rides this week. Florida beat Alabama 105-87, sending their odds up almost 18%, but then they lost to 9-22 Vandy, 78-77, plunging their odds 15%, but leaving them up a seed for the week! Wake Forest had an even wilder ride; down almost 20% from a home loss to 14-17 Georgia Tech, the home win over Clemson recovered half of that and kept the Deacons in our seedings. Most bracketologists disagree, it seems; this is going to be a very tough year, I think, to decide who is in and who is out.

                                                 3day   7day          Seed  Seed
Rank Team                   Conf  Rec    %Odds   %Chg   %Chg  1-seed  3/10  3/03
 44. Seton Hall             BE    20-11   62.7   +6.2  +13.2    --    11p       
 45. Pittsburgh             ACC   21-10   62.0   +0.4   +7.2    --    11p   11p 
 46. Ohio St.               B10   19-12   58.1  +15.1  +16.2    --    12p       
 47. Princeton              Ivy   24-3    54.0  +11.4  +11.5    --    12    12  
 48. Mississippi St.        SEC   19-12   50.9  -17.7  -30.0    --    12p    8  
 49. St. John's             BE    19-12   48.0   +1.5   +3.9    --              
 50. Texas A&M              SEC   18-13   44.0  +20.6  +32.2    --              
 51. James Madison          SB    30-3    41.6   -0.1   +2.1    --    12    12  
 52. Michigan St.           B10   18-13   39.2  -16.5  -14.8    --          12p 
 53. Grand Canyon           WAC   27-4    38.0   +8.3   +9.5    --    12    13  
 54. Providence             BE    19-12   34.1   -1.7   +2.9    --              
 55. Syracuse               ACC   20-11   33.5   +0.3   +1.2    --              
 56. Cincinnati             B12   18-13   32.1  +13.6   +4.6    --              
 57. Oregon                 P12   20-11   31.1  +10.7   +6.4    --              
 58. Villanova              BE    17-14   29.9   -5.7  -23.8    --          12p 

Speaking of who is in and who is out, we're at the dreaded Bubble. Who is in? Seton Hall. Who is out? Villanova. The Pirates beat the Wildcats and that's the difference here. Villanova had a chance against Creighton but lost by a bucket, and now they're going to need to win at least 2 games in the Big East tournament. Seton Hall probably needs a win, too, to be any semblance of safe.

Who is in? Ohio State. Who is out? Michigan State. Really?? It can't be. But here it is, and if other bracketologists disagree, then at least we can say that the Spartans are not safe if they lose in the first round. 18-14 would not be a good look. 18-13 is bad enough after the Spartans blew it at Indiana, their 4th loss in 5 games. Meanwhile the Buckeyes are on a roll, winning 4 straight including the win at East Lansing in late February. Last week they beat Michigan by 23 and Rutgers by 22.

Who is suddenly in trouble? Mississippi State. The Bulldogs look very solid—an 8-seed just a week ago!—but they lose their 3rd and 4th in a row at Texas A&M and at home vs. South Carolina (in overtime). From an 8-seed to Last Team In? The Aggies' win wasn't enough to put them in the seedings but they're in the First Four Out, up over 30% from a week ago due to beating both Mississippi teams last week. They're right behind St. John's, who found out that beating DePaul and Georgetown doesn't but a lot of good will, not enough to get over the damn hump!

Pittsburgh closed with two wins and it's good enough for us, though skeptics abound about the Panthers' chances. Syracuse lost at Clemson as expected and didn't move much, still outside looking in. Providence had the most predictable week—beating Georgetown, losing to UConn—so they too didn't gain ground. Cincinnati's week was more volatile as the Bearcats lost to Oklahoma in overtime, but crushed West Virginia at home 92-56 which was impressive enough to recover all their deficit and then some. But like Oregon they still need a hell of a tournament run; the Ducks lost to Colorado but beat Utah, a net positive for a team hovering around 30% odds.

The auto-bids here—Princeton, James Madison, Grand Canyon—will all need to finish the job and get the auto-bid. Even Princeton, who sneaks into the seedings for the first time in a few months. The Tigers jump over 10% not because they beat Penn but because they didn't lose to Penn, which would have sent them tumbling. The Dance Chance is now a snapshot rather than a projection, so what you see is what you get.

                                                 3day   7day          Seed  Seed
Rank Team                   Conf  Rec    %Odds   %Chg   %Chg  1-seed  3/10  3/03
 59. McNeese St.            Slnd  28-3    28.0   -4.7   -3.2    --    13    12  
 60. Iowa                   B10   18-13   27.1   -7.6   -8.3    --              
 61. Utah                   P12   18-13   26.6  -11.0  -25.3    --              
 62. Butler                 BE    18-13   25.9  +11.4  +12.4    --              
 63. Virginia Tech          ACC   18-13   25.8   -3.0   +5.0    --              
 64. Memphis                Amer  22-9    24.7   +4.2   +6.3    --              
 65. Kansas St.             B12   18-13   20.4  +17.0  +12.4    --              
 66. Samford                SC    28-5    17.3  +13.1   +7.0    --    13    13  
 67. Richmond               A10   23-8    13.7   -0.7   +3.5    --              
 68. UNLV                   MWC   19-11   13.6   -0.2   +8.8    --              
 69. Bradley                MVC   22-11   12.5   +8.9   +8.0    --              
 70. Appalachian St.        SB    27-6     7.6   -4.0   -4.3    --              
 71. Mississippi            SEC   20-11    7.1  -10.1  -13.0    --              
 72. UC Irvine              BW    24-8     5.3   +5.1   +4.1    --    13    13  
 73. San Francisco          WCC   23-9     1.6   +1.6   +1.5    --              
 74. South Florida          Amer  23-6    <0.1   -0.1   -0.1    --              

The lower bubble. Some big plunges here as teams lose hope and probably need to win their tournament to get in. Utah was above 50% in the Dance Chance (they were First Team Out) but a 1-2 punch of losing at Oregon State and Oregon pretty much means they won't be the 4th (or 3rd) Pac-12 team in the Big Dance. And Mississippi has been under the waterline all year, even when they were 15-1, so now at 20-11 it's no surprise that it's all but over for the Rebels following losses to Georgia and Texas A&M, who beat them in Oxford 86-60 and is their first SEC tourney foe (bummer). Iowa was surging for a while but lost to Illinois and now faces uber-surging Ohio State in the Big Ten first round. 

Some teams, however, have renewed hope that 2-3 wins can put them on the cusp of a bid. Butler beat DePaul and Xavier, breaking a 5-game skid. They face Xavier again, and this time it's not at home, so Big East tourney wins won't come easy. And Kansas State was also left for dead until they beat Iowa State 65-58. In their case, three wins (and a loss) might be enough to get a bid as there are no easy opponents in the Big Twelve; the Wildcats face Texas first on Wednesday.

Bradley increased their stock a bit by beating Illinois-Chicago before falling to Drake, but that's all she wrote; the Braves are unlikely to get much Committee attention. But UNLV, who shares similar odds at the moment, is truly surging, winning 9 of their last 11. They face San Diego State first, then probably Utah State before the Mountain West finals. It's almost too bad they got a bye since going 2-1 in a tournament isn't going to get them an at-large in such a crowded conference; it's win it all or NIT for the Rebels.

And as usual we close with South Florida, the team that could break the Dance Chance. Their loss to Tulsa put them under 0.1% odds for an at-large, while for most they're a 50/50 proposition. There are always going to be outliers but they should not lie out this much! They have a #63 SOR (the metric everyone is talking about) not too far above their #75 Success rank (which the Dance Chance uses) and they're #78 in the NET which is lower than we show them here (#74). It's another case where getting a bye might hurt their at-large odds, though they'll trade that for having better odds of winning the tournament. They were so dominant in the ACC during the regular season they should be shooting for that anyway. Then we might have to talk about Florida Atlantic!