The Big 12 has a 6-team race at the top, out of ten teams, probably the most impactful conference race* in the country as the winner is probably a 1-seed, and most the rest will be be 2- and 3-seeds. Meanwhile the Mountain West's 5-team race is playing out in the middle of the seeding pack, while the SEC has two different races going on: one at the very top, and another at the very bottom of the seedings in the Dance Chance.
*Here I'm referring to "conference race" not necessarily in terms of the conference standings, but for their NCAA tournament seeding. The two are often quite different!
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(1/29)
1. Purdue 22-2 29-2 B10 99.9 +0.0 1 1
2. Alabama 20-3 27-4 SEC 99.9 +0.5 1 1
3. Tennessee 19-4 27-4 SEC 99.9 +0.1 1 1
4. Texas 19-4 24-7 B12 99.9 +1.9 1 2
5. Houston 22-2 29-2 Amer 99.9 +0.8 2 1
Purdue got their 2nd loss last week (at Indiana, 79-74) but it's no surprise they hold on to the top overall seed. A few weeks ago they projected to 29-2 with a loss at Indiana and they had the top seed back then; this is the same thing. It simply delayed the Boilermakers from nabbing the first "100%" odds designation, which is really a formality as Purdue will be in the tournament. And a 1-seed is a pretty safe bet. The only question is, will they be the overall top seed? Or will that go to Alabama or Tennessee?
The two top SEC teams switch places from last Monday, as Tennessee fell to Florida 67-54. They get Alabama at home in a few weeks, and the Strength ratings favor the Vols in the SEC tournament. Either Tennessee or Alabama will get a 1-seed, but both? Almost certainly not. Texas' replacement of Houston as a 1-seed shouldn't be viewed as weakness by the Cougars, but more that there will be a spot in the top line for a Big Twelve team, and right now the Longhorns are that placeholder.
Texas did have a great week though, beating Baylor at home and Kansas State on the road. This coming week they have Kansas on the road and West Virginia at home. Will they remain on top of the Big Twelve (at least, seeding-forecast-wise)?
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(1/29)
6. Kansas 18-5 24-7 B12 99.7 +2.1 2 2
7. UCLA 19-4 27-4 P12 99.4 +0.6 2 2
8. Arizona 21-3 27-4 P12 99.0 +0.6 2 2
9. Kansas St. 18-5 24-7 B12 98.6 +1.7 3 3
10. TCU 17-6 23-8 B12 98.3 +1.0 3 3
11. Gonzaga 19-5 26-5 WCC 97.9 +1.7 3 3
12. Iowa St. 16-6 20-10 B12 97.5 +1.0 3 3
13. Baylor 17-6 22-9 B12 97.2 +1.7 4 4
Kansas is expected to beat Texas at home, just as they were expected to beat K-State at home and lose to Iowa State on the road. The margins (90-78, and 68-53) were a bit wide but that happens. The story is the Big 12's parity, and with all six teams—Texas(#7), Kansas(12), Kansas State(22), TCU(18), Iowa State(16), and Baylor(11)—so close in Strength, no one's likely to win out from here. But the one that comes closest to is in position for a 1-seed come tournament time.
In addition to Texas at Kansas tonight, this week's Big 12 includes Kansas State hosting TCU, TCU hosting Baylor, and Iowa State goes to West Virginia on Wednesday. In general the home teams are expected to win each game, almost top to bottom in the Big Twelve.
If Purdue, Tennessee/Alabama, and a Big Twelve team each take a 1-seed, who gets the 4th one? Either Houston or the Pac-12 tournament winner if that is UCLA or Arizona. Right now Houston's in good shape for that, but one more loss and the Cougars probably stay at 2.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(1/29)
14. Indiana 16-7 23-8 B10 96.8 +1.0 4 4
15. Connecticut 18-6 24-7 BE 96.4 +1.4 4 4
16. Rutgers 16-7 22-9 B10 96.1 +1.8 4 5
17. Florida Atlantic 22-2 29-2 CUSA 95.7 +1.8 5 5
18. Virginia 17-4 24-5 ACC 95.3 +0.7 5 4
19. Xavier 19-5 24-7 BE 95.0 +1.8 5 5
20. Marquette 19-5 24-7 BE 94.6 +1.0 5 5
21. Saint Mary's 21-4 26-5 WCC 94.3 +1.4 6 6
22. Creighton 15-8 23-8 BE 93.9 +1.4 6 6
23. Illinois 16-7 21-10 B10 93.5 +1.8 6 6
Florida Atlantic's 20-game win streak came to an end at UAB as expected, so they remain a 5-seed. Their résumé is indeed spotty but they're #18 in the NET rankings so it would seem they're a solid at-large if they don't win the C-USA tournament. The Bracket Project has them a 9-seed right now, so this will be one of the more interesting Committee decisions.
After a rough patch (losing 6 of 8) UConn has won two straight for the first time since December, but it was DePaul and Georgetown. The Huskies face two much better foes this week in Marquette (at home) and Creighton (road); win both of those and it will truly mean they've righted the ship.
Indiana got a great win over Purdue but also lost to Maryland earlier in the week. The Hoosiers face fellow 4-seed Rutgers this week at home, a good chance for the Scarlet Knights to get a big upset win. St. Mary's also got a big win, also expected, over Gonzaga at home but they needed overtime. The Gaels don't move based on the result, nor do the 'Zags.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(1/29)
24. New Mexico 19-4 26-5 MWC 93.2 +1.8 6 7
25. West Virginia 14-9 18-13 B12 92.8 +10.1 7 8
26. Duke 17-6 22-9 ACC 90.9 -1.3 7 6
27. Miami FL 18-5 23-7 ACC 89.1 +28.7 7 11
28. Iowa 15-8 21-10 B10 87.3 +3.0 7 8
29. Utah St. 19-5 26-5 MWC 85.6 -0.5 8 7
30. Boise St. 18-6 24-7 MWC 83.8 -4.0 8 7
31. Providence 17-6 23-8 BE 82.1 +1.1 8 8
32. Maryland 16-7 21-10 B10 80.3 +16.5 8 11
33. N.C. State 19-5 24-7 ACC 78.5 +2.7 9 9
34. North Carolina 15-8 22-9 ACC 76.8 -12.8 9 7
35. Nevada 18-6 23-8 MWC 75.0 +0.9 9 9
36. Oral Roberts 21-4 27-4 Sum 73.2 +4.3 9 10
37. San Diego St. 18-5 22-8 MWC 71.5 -6.0 10 9
The Mountain West: Here, five teams within 14 spots from the low 6-seed to the high 10-seed. The AP rankings and most prognosticators put San Diego State at the top, but looking ahead the Aztecs have the roughest road left and our projection has them losing three more times, more than New Mexico (1), Utah State (0), Boise State (1), or Nevada (2). The Aztecs do rate as the best team in the conference (#31) in Strength, but the others are all #42 or higher so like the Big Twelve there's a lot of parity. The Aztecs travel to Utah State Wednesday; New Mexico hosts Nevada on Tuesday; while Boise has a relative breather with Wyoming and Colorado State.
Miami makes a big move this week from 11 to 7 with a strong win over Virginia Tech and a minor upset over Clemson on the road. Clemson, of course, is one of the most overseeded teams in the nation; even at 18-4 last week their Dance Chance was just 33%, and after two upset losses last week it's down to 17%. Maryland also takes a big leap up from an 11-seed; theirs wasn't due to an upset, just overperformance: they were expected to beat Indiana by a point and Minnesota by 11, instead they won by 11 and 35! Their 20-11 projection didn't budge but now all four of those remaining "losses" are very close and they could steal a few.
Meanwhile pre-season darling North Carolina continues to struggle in the ACC, falling 2 seeds after two losses last week. The rest of the season looks pretty favorable, but they're almost looking as bad as they did last year prior to their miracle NCAA run. Good or bad thing?
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(1/29)
38. Oklahoma St. 14-9 17-14 B12 69.7 +38.8 10
39. Arkansas 16-7 20-11 SEC 68.0 -4.4 10 9
40. Kentucky 16-7 20-11 SEC 66.2 -1.0 10 10
41. Missouri 17-6 23-8 SEC 64.4 -6.2 11 10
42. Auburn 17-6 20-11 SEC 62.7 +10.9 11 12p
43. Florida 13-10 19-12 SEC 60.9 +26.5 11
44. Mississippi St. 15-8 21-10 SEC 59.1 +9.1 11p 12p
45. Ohio St. 11-12 16-15 B10 57.4 -21.8 11p 8
46. USC 17-6 21-10 P12 54.5 +1.0 12p 12p
47. Virginia Tech 14-9 21-10 ACC 51.7 +13.9 12p
Top of the bubble: Based on the projected conference champs the seed line is ending pretty early, at #47 now. And Virginia Tech just manages to sneak in as the last team after beating Virginia on Saturday. But the Dance Chance has always had confidence in the Hokies; even after they lost 7 in a row and were just 11-8, we gave them a 43% chance to make the dance. Since then they've won three of four.
The SEC has two teams guaranteed to be in the tournament—and seven others with a realistic chance. Here we find SIX of them in a row, from 10-seeds down to an 11-seed play-in team. Not all six will make it—they'll get at least two, and probably four, which would mean six teams from the SEC total. Of course all games from here out are crucial, setting up for the SEC tournament which is the real make or break. These teams are a lot more spread out in Strength than you'd expect for them crowding so close here, from Arkansas at #26 to Missouri at #57—but the remaining schedules are very different, too, so that Missouri is only expected to lose 2 more games while Auburn (#30) might drop five! This week Arkansas faces Kentucky on the road and Mississippi State at home; Missouri travels to Tennessee on Saturday; Florida, who joined this group courtesy of an upset over Tennessee, travels to face Alabama on Wednesday, while Auburn hosts the Tide on Saturday.
Joining as a 10-seed this week is Oklahoma State; the Cowboys make some separation from Oklahoma, who is 12-11 and has 4% odds. For weeks the Cowboys have been fighting to turn their projected record positive and it's looking a lot better after they beat Oklahoma on the road and TCU at home, both upsets. Their remaining schedule is very tough, even by Big 12 standards, but if they can finish 17-14 they can probably seal a bid with a couple of wins in the Big 12 tournament.
Going the other direction is Ohio State. Despite dropping 9 of their last 10 we still have them in, but they're down from an 8-seed this week and down from their peak at a 3-seed on January 1st when they were 10-3 and projected at 26-5! Now they're barely above .500 and our method begins to punish teams with marginal W/L records more toward they end as they become more certain. If they do finish 16-15 they probably need to make the Big Ten tournament final, and at #24 in Strength that's not out of the question. But last week's upset losses to Wisconsin (at home) and Michigan put a .500+ finish in question.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(1/29)
48. Memphis 17-6 23-8 Amer 49.9 -7.0 12
49. Michigan St. 14-9 18-13 B10 49.2 +9.7
50. Southern Miss 21-4 27-4 SB 48.6 +2.2 12 13
51. Oregon 14-10 19-12 P12 48.4 +7.1
52. Pittsburgh 16-7 22-9 ACC 46.6 +22.5
53. Northwestern 16-7 17-14 B10 44.9 -20.7 10
54. Seton Hall 15-9 18-13 BE 43.1 -1.6
55. Texas A&M 16-7 20-11 SEC 41.3 +12.1
56. Kent St. 18-5 26-5 MAC 39.6 -15.6 12 12
57. Charleston 22-3 28-3 CAA 37.8 -20.8 12 11
58. Utah 16-9 18-13 P12 36.0 -12.1
59. North Texas 19-5 26-5 CUSA 34.3 +11.9
60. Sam Houston St. 17-6 24-6 WAC 32.5 -29.6 13 11
61. Washington St. 10-15 16-15 P12 30.8 -12.2
62. Colorado 14-11 16-15 P12 29.0 +1.5
63. Penn St. 14-9 16-15 B10 27.2 -21.1 12p
Bottom of the bubble: Memphis lost to Tulane which dropped the Tigers to the first team out. Michigan State has been making progress lately, which is interesting: the Spartans' Dance Chance was just 7% after a six-game win streak put them at 12-4, but now after losing 5 of 7 they're up to 49%. The reason is their Strength rating has increased from #64 to #48, and with it their projection is now a decent 18-13 which might get them in with a single win in the Big Ten tournament.
Two other Big Ten teams dropped out this week. Northwestern was a 10-seed but lost at home to Michigan 68-51, and Penn State was barely on the bubble and lost twice this week on the road. Losing to Purdue obviously wasn't the one that hurt, that would be the Nebraska loss.
Oregon is a step ahead of the other Pac-12 wannabes (Utah, Washington State, Colorado) after a road win at Arizona State; and rounding out the First Four Out is Pittsburgh, who comes back to life with a road win over North Carolina. The Panthers are still on the outside looking in though, and their next three games—Louisville, Florida State, and Boston College—will only affect their ranking if they lose one of them. Their remaining schedule gives a hint as to why a 22-9 ACC team doesn't make the cut: there are a lot of bad teams in the conference.
1-bid conferences again: Kent State, Charleston, and Sam Houston State all lost upsets this week and fell below the at-large-bid area, insuring that the MAC, and Colonial Athletic, and the WAC will be 1-bid leagues at a 12-seed or below level. Kent State's loss to Akron wasn't so bad; Charleston's loss to Drexel was, though it doesn't affect them nearly as much as their loss to Hofstra did. Sam Houston lost to lowly Texas-Arlington 70-58. This is why mid-Major conferences can't have nice things—few opportunities for big wins, and multiple chances of a big loss biting them in the ass.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(1/29)
68. Liberty 19-6 25-6 ASun 18.4 -7.4 13 13
71. Bradley 17-8 23-8 MVC 13.1 +6.2 13
72. VCU 18-6 25-6 A10 11.4 +6.3 13
74. Drake 19-6 24-7 MVC 7.8 -4.2 13
79. Yale 16-6 21-6 Ivy 4.0 -0.6 14 14
83. Iona 16-7 24-7 MAAC 3.6 -0.7 14 14
86. Dayton 15-9 20-11 A10 3.3 -10.5 13
88. UC Irvine 15-8 24-8 BW 3.1 -0.9 14 14
93. Furman 19-6 25-6 SC 2.6 0.0 14 14
105. Montana St. 17-8 22-9 BSky 1.8 -0.5 15 15
107. Youngstown St. 19-6 25-6 Horz 1.7 -0.4 15 15
119. Colgate 17-8 23-8 Pat 1.4 -0.5 15 15
138. Northwestern St. 16-8 22-9 Slnd 0.9 -0.4 15 15
139. Vermont 13-10 19-11 AE 0.9 -0.3 16 16
150. Radford 16-9 21-10 BSth 0.6 -0.3 16
158. Longwood 16-9 21-10 BSth 0.4 -0.6 16
164. North Carolina Central 10-11 17-11 MEAC 0.3 -0.5 16p 16p
165. Grambling St. 14-8 22-8 SWAC 0.2 -0.6 16p 16p
176. SIU Edwardsville 16-9 21-10 OVC <0.1 -0.2 16p 16p
272. Wagner 12-9 16-11 NEC <0.1 0.0 16p 16p
The real 1-bid leagues: A bit of movement here. Bradley slides just ahead of Drake to be the Missouri Valley faves; both teams won twice last week but the Bulldogs needed double overtime on both occasions!
VCU takes back the Atlantic 10 from Dayton after the Flyers lost to St. Bonaventure Saturday. The teams face each other (in Virginia) on Tuesday.
And Radford slips past Longwood in the Big South. The Highlanders have won 9 straight while the Lancers have lost 3 of their last 4.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(1/29)
142. Long Beach St. 14-10 19-13 BW 0.8 +0.8
160. St. Bonaventure 13-11 16-15 A10 0.4 +0.4
163. Bryant 15-8 20-9 AE 0.3 +0.3
Back from the grave: As mentioned above St. Bonaventure beat Dayton and that gave the Bonnies new life: 0.4% of it according to the Dance Chance. If they can win out at 20-11, that might be good enough in some years but the Atlantic 10 isn't the mid-Major powerhouse this year that it has been in some previous seasons.
Bryant beat Maine and New Hampshire. There must be an upset in their somewhere even though both were at home as it put the Bulldogs at 0.3%. America East? Not seeing it.
And the biggest "leap" of all is Long Beach State up to 0.8% after beating CS-Fullerton on the road 70-67 and UC-Irvine 93-88 in overtime at home. Both were upsets and now Long Beach has...no real chance of an at-large bid but here they are, close to 1%.
Brandon Miller is playing well, Alabama is not
Several days ago came the startling revelation that Brandon Miller brought the murder weapon to the crime scene in January's murder in Tuscaloosa, at the request of one of the accused killers. Since then Alabama's played three games and Miller has played in all three; Alabama's coach has said Miller was in the "wrong place at the wrong time" and wouldn't be held out, and indeed the police said there was "nothing they could charge him with."
Still, observers wondered how Miller would respond to the pressure of playing after the announcement. Would he be tentative, nervous, a bit shook, perhaps? The answer was clearly "no" at South Carolina as Miller scored a career-hight 41 points in the overtime win. He shot 6 of 13 from the 3-point line, 8 of 12 from 2-point range, and 7 of 8 from the charity stripe.
Before the next game Miller was "patted-down" by a teammate before the game, in a ritual the players had done before but one that prompted an apology from coach Nate Oats, saying it was in bad taste and wouldn't happen again. Apparently it was meant as a "TSA style" patdown and signified that Miller was "ready for takeoff."
Again Miller had a good game at home vs. Arkansas. Though not a career-best like last time, Miller had 24 points. He was only 1 for 6 in 3s but his 7 of 9 2s and all 7 free throws. Alabama escaped with an 86-83 win over the Razorbacks.
Coach Oats says that Miller has cooperated with the investigation in every way, but a few things might not add up in Miller's testimony. The police clearly imply that the accused killer texted Miller asking him to bring his gun to him. But Miller's attorney says Miller never saw it because it was under a pile of clothes, and didn't know it was in his car. The two facts don't jibe, and the logical conclusion is that Miller put the gun under the clothes when he brought it downtown to the accused killer, which is what one would do when transporting a gun: hide it. But no one seems eager to push the matter in any way, and one wonders if a normal person would be subjected to more scrutiny. Miller's lawyers have claimed the accused killer left the gun in Miller's car without Miller's knowledge, hidden under the clothes, which is a bit odd to say the least. Miller's car was also blocking the car of the victim when he parked it, though police say they don't know if that was intentional or not.
In any case, Miller obviously didn't participate in the violence itself, and that seems good enough for Alabama officials. In his third game since the controversy, Miller had 17 points in an overtime win vs. rival Auburn. He again hit only 1 of 6 3s and this time only 2 of 6 2s, but he hit 10 of 11 free throws, clearly not the hallmark of someone who has a burden on his mind over anything. Either Miller is an extremely cool customer, or he's confident he did nothing wrong. Perhaps both.
But while Miller has performed at least as well as he has all season, Alabama as a team has been shaky to say the least. Beating South Carolina in overtime is an extremely weak performance, and while beating Arkansas and Auburn is tough for any team, Alabama was lucky to get out of both of them with a win when normally they should win comfortably.
To put it in terms of the Strength power rating, Alabama is overall the #2 team in the country, but for the last three games they've played like the #82 team. Here's how it looks on their full-season-to-date chart:
The drop-off to game #28 (South Carolina) is immense, and it was their lowest-rated game they didn't lose. The Arkansas win was about equal to the Tennessee loss, and the Auburn win was a bit worse (they were down by 17 at one point). The last two games weren't awful and ultimately, they got the win all three times, but all three were well below their full-season average performance (the green bar in game "0"). In Ken Pomeroy's ratings the team has fallen from #14 to #19 on offense and from #3 to #6 on defense, a significant drop for just three games.
So it would seem that while Brandon Miller isn't concerned with the current events—or at least doesn't show it on the court—his teammates are not thriving under the scrutiny nearly as well.
The situation is fluid and facts are being introduced every day, and different sources have different takes, so it's hard to know what to make of Miller's actions and whether he has anything to answer for. The police say no, so that will probably be the final word. Maybe he should have done something differently, but most likely, he couldn't possibly have known at all what was about to happen.
Yet although it seems he has shaken off any pressure added by the events, his team is not performing to its usual level for whatever reason, and it's too much of a coincidence to say the revelations have nothing to do with it. When player Darius Miles was charged with the murders back in January and dismissed from the team, the other players didn't really miss a step in performance.
But something about the Miller revelation was different. Maybe they're worried about the pressure on him, and in doing so, took the pressure on themselves? Hard to say what is going on. It's also possible that a 3-game sample is too small to draw conclusions. But it's a pretty sharp drop-off at the exact same time. Bama player Jaden Bradley was also at the scene of the murder (in his own car), and he's made only 3 of 17 attempts since then. Two Bama players were ejected from the Auburn game for a verbal altercation. It's not uncommon to see two players—one from each team—ejected, but two players from the same team? When playing at home?
Will Alabama recover their national-title-level gameplay in time for the NCAA tournament? We'll see. So far they've kept winning and look like they'll be a 1-seed. But if this drop-off in performance continues, they'll be hard-pressed to make a deep tournament run later on in March.
Posted on March 01, 2023 at 10:13 PM in analysis, commentary | Permalink | Comments (0)
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