Getting close to Selection Sunday (3 weeks away!) and the 1-seeds are almost set: Auburn, Florida, Duke, and either Tennessee or Alabama, is your most likely lineup. The Tigers had a few close calls at home against Arkansas and Georgia but won as always. The Gators beat Oklahoma and LSU. The Blue Devils topped Virginia then blew out Illinois, 110-67. And the Vols beat Vanderbilt and Texas A&M while the Tide lost to Missouri before beating Kentucky. Note that #1 Auburn has played all the rest of the top 5, losing to Duke and Florida while beating Tennessee and Alabama, with one game vs. the Tide remaining.
Record At-lg Dance Chance Total
Rank Team Conf Curr Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg %Odds seed prev
1. Auburn SEC 25-2 29-2 100.0 0.0 99.2 +0.2 100.0 1 1
2. Florida SEC 24-3 27-4 100.0 0.0 89.0 +1.8 100.0 1 1
3. Duke ACC 24-3 28-3 100.0 +0.1 82.6 +9.6 100.0 1 1
4. Tennessee SEC 22-5 26-5 100.0 +0.1 58.5 +5.2 100.0 1 2
5. Alabama SEC 22-5 24-7 >99.9 0.0 46.3 -12.8 >99.9 2 1
6. Houston B12 23-4 27-4 >99.9 0.0 15.2 +3.4 >99.9 2 2
7. Missouri SEC 20-7 24-7 >99.9 0.0 0.8 -0.1 >99.9 2 3
On Saturday Tennessee hosts Alabama in a very important game for 1-seed consideration. The Tide really controls their 1-seed destiny as they play Florida and Auburn in the last week. Houston is the only other strong candidate after beating Iowa State 68-59 on Saturday; if the Cougars win out and win the Big Twelve tournament it will be hard to keep them a 2-seed, but anything else favors three SEC teams. Missouri isn't really one of those despite their 2-seed; the Tigers beat Alabama 110-98 but fell to Arkansas days later.
The Big Ten has probably the best conference race, with at least the five teams below in the hunt. Wisconsin took the "lead" mid-week after beating Illinois 95-74, but then they lost at home to Oregon in overtime. That allowed Michigan State to reclaim leader status with an incredible week of work, beating Purdue at home and Michigan 75-62 on the road. The Boilermakers had an especially bad week as they lost to Indiana on Sunday, making it four losses in a row. Amid all the carnage Maryland quietly rose to the top of the 3-seed line with high-margin home wins over Iowa (101-75) and USC (88-71).
Record At-lg Dance Chance Total
Rank Team Conf Curr Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg %Odds seed prev
8. Michigan St. B10 22-5 25-6 >99.9 +1.7 0.8 +0.5 >99.9 2 4
9. Maryland B10 21-6 25-7 >99.9 +0.1 1.3 -0.4 >99.9 3 3
10. Texas A&M SEC 20-7 22-9 >99.9 0.0 0.1 -2.4 >99.9 3 2
11. Kentucky SEC 18-9 20-11 >99.9 +0.1 5.6 -0.6 >99.9 3 3
12. Michigan B10 20-6 24-7 >99.9 0.0 0.3 -1.9 >99.9 3 2
13. Wisconsin B10 21-6 24-7 >99.9 +0.4 0.2 -0.5 >99.9 4 4
14. Purdue B10 19-9 21-10 99.8 0.0 <0.1 -0.8 99.8 4 3
The two SEC teams on the 3-line both lost last week, too: Texas A&M lost to Mississippi State 70-54 before losing to Tennessee 77-69 at home. Kentucky beat Vandy before losing at Alabama. The Wildcats still have a shot at a 1-seed due to big wins, but their losses are adding up and odds dwindling.
Most of the rest of the Big Twelve contenders are below in the 4-5 area. Iowa State's loss to Houston wasn't terrible and they hold their 4-seed. Texas Tech doesn't hold theirs after losing to TCU last Tuesday. Arizona beat Baylor on the road but fell to BYU at home, 96-95 on Saturday. Oddly, the Wildcats moved up a seed, as did Kansas despite also losing to BYU—and badly (91-57)—before taking it out on Oklahoma State 96-64.
Record At-lg Dance Chance Total
Rank Team Conf Curr Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg %Odds seed prev
15. Iowa St. B12 21-6 25-6 99.8 +0.3 0.1 -0.7 99.9 4 4
16. St. John's BE 24-4 26-5 99.6 +3.9 <0.1 0.0 99.7 4 5
17. Texas Tech B12 21-6 23-8 99.6 +1.5 <0.1 0.0 99.6 5 4
18. UCLA B10 20-8 22-9 98.2 +1.4 0.0 -0.1 98.3 5 5
19. Arizona B12 18-9 20-11 96.0 +4.0 0.0 -0.1 96.0 5 6
20. Kansas B12 18-9 21-10 95.9 +1.4 0.0 -0.1 95.9 5 6
21. Mississippi SEC 19-8 20-11 95.7 +0.8 0.0 0.0 95.7 6 5
22. Clemson ACC 22-5 26-5 94.6 +7.8 0.0 0.0 94.7 6 6
St. John's is running away with the Big East and is nearing 100% status. UCLA managed to lose at home vs. Minnesota but held their 5-seed. Mississippi didn't, slipping to the top 6-seed after two losses (Mississippi State and Vanderbilt). And Clemson kept racking up unimpressive ACC wins (ok, beating SMU on the road is a good win).
Two more Big Ten teams below, going in opposite directions as Oregon beat Wisconsin on the road in overtime to forge a 4-game win streak (after their 5-game losing streak). Illinois on the other hand got beat badly by the Badgers (21 points) then met Duke in Madison Square Garden and lost by 43! Earlier in the season a week like that would have dropped a team 5 seeds but the Illini only fell one. Mississippi State beat Texas A&M but then lost to Oklahoma; they still gained 5.7% at-large odds but remain a 7-seed. Marquette shed some odds due to their loss to Villanova, their 5th in conference play.
Record At-lg Dance Chance Total
Rank Team Conf Curr Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg %Odds seed prev
23. Oregon B10 20-8 23-8 93.4 +8.9 0.0 0.0 93.4 6 7
24. Illinois B10 17-11 19-12 92.3 -4.0 0.0 -0.2 92.3 6 5
25. Mississippi St. SEC 19-8 21-10 91.9 +5.7 0.0 0.0 91.9 7 7
26. Marquette BE 20-7 23-8 91.7 -1.9 0.0 0.0 92.0 7 6
27. Saint Mary's WCC 25-4 27-4 90.3 +9.2 0.0 0.0 90.8 7 7
28. Gonzaga WCC 21-8 23-8 83.1 -2.6 0.0 0.0 83.7 7 7
29. New Mexico MWC 22-5 25-6 80.2 +2.5 0.0 0.0 81.2 8 8
30. BYU B12 19-8 22-9 79.5 +20.5 0.0 0.0 79.6 8 10
31. Utah St. MWC 24-4 26-5 79.0 +12.4 0.0 0.0 79.7 8 10
Saint Mary's takes over as "leader" in the WCC in our seedings from Gonzaga, which is appropriate since they've beaten the Bulldogs twice now after Saturday's win in Spokane. Gonzaga is starting to look like a team that beats up on weak opponents but can't win the big ones. Though both teams are 7-seeds there is a fairly wide gap between them as seed by their at-large odds (90.3% to 83.1%). Another two-team conference race is happening in the Mountain West and New Mexico hangs on to the lead there despite their loss to Boise State last Wednesday. The Lobos beat Utah State twice this year but the Aggies are up a solid 12.5% this week after beating San Jose State 105-57 Wednesday and topping San Diego State Saturday. They and BYU both move up from 10-seeds to 8-seeds, with the Cougars' odds up a staggering 20.5% after a killer week—beating Kansas by 34 and Arizona by 1 in Tucson.
Louisville, like Clemson, gets little respect from the Dance Chance despite a gaudy ACC record (both are 14-2). Wins over the ACC teams just don't move the needle it seems. The Cards keep winning and remain an 8-seed, which is not far from where the Bracket Matrix has them (7-seed). Memphis is also a 7-seed on BracketMatrix and an 8-seed here; both teams are gaining odds, as SEC teams Vanderbilt (lost to UK but beat Ole Miss) and especially Arkansas, who jumps off the bubble after upsetting Missouri 92-85. The Razorbacks also played very well at Auburn losing 67-60.
Record At-lg Dance Chance Total
Rank Team Conf Curr Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg %Odds seed prev
32. Louisville ACC 21-6 25-6 78.6 +3.9 0.0 0.0 78.8 8 8
33. Memphis Amer 22-5 26-5 78.4 +5.5 0.0 0.0 79.6 9 8
34. Vanderbilt SEC 18-9 19-12 73.8 +4.6 0.0 0.0 73.8 9 9
35. Creighton BE 19-8 22-9 72.2 +2.2 0.0 0.0 72.8 9 9
36. Arkansas SEC 16-11 19-12 68.4 +11.9 0.0 0.0 68.5 9 11p
37. Connecticut BE 18-9 22-9 67.3 -0.4 0.0 0.0 67.8 10 9
38. UC San Diego BW 24-4 28-4 64.6 +6.4 0.0 0.0 69.8 10 11
39. Baylor B12 16-11 19-12 60.4 -11.9 0.0 0.0 60.6 10 9
Creighton is now our #2 Big East teams after Connecticut lost to St. John's. Baylor lost a good chunk of odds after dropping two games, to Arizona (not bad) and Colorado (bad). UC San Diego is looking more and more like an at-large bid but the jury is still out; Utah State is probably their best win of the year.
San Diego State (who beat the Tritons in the season opener) lost to Utah State just last Saturday. But a prior 83-60 win over Fresno State seems to have tipped the balance toward the Aztecs who move up a seed. A bit strange, but other teams fell below them, like Nebraska who lost to Penn State, and Texas who fell to 11-16 South Carolina 84-69. VCU got a big 70-54 win over George Mason and is hoping to climb their way out of the bubble in case they lose in the Atlantic 10 tournament.
Record At-lg Dance Chance Total
Rank Team Conf Curr Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg %Odds seed prev
40. San Diego St. MWC 18-7 22-7 59.1 +1.7 0.0 0.0 60.0 10 11
41. Nebraska B10 17-10 19-12 58.9 -4.6 0.0 0.0 59.0 11 10
42. VCU A10 22-5 26-5 57.2 +6.7 0.0 0.0 62.9 11 11
43. Texas SEC 16-11 18-13 56.3 -9.9 0.0 0.0 56.4 11 10
44. Boise St. MWC 19-8 23-8 52.5 +10.2 0.0 0.0 53.3 11p
45. Xavier BE 18-10 21-10 52.1 +3.1 0.0 0.0 52.6 11p 12p
46. Ohio St. B10 15-13 18-13 52.0 -21.2 0.0 0.0 52.2 12p 8
47. West Virginia B12 16-11 19-12 51.3 +1.2 0.0 0.0 51.4 12p 11p
Boise State is the big winner here, the only team that joins the seedings from a week ago. The Broncos beat New Mexico and Nevada and hope the Selection Committee is willing to take a few more Mountain West teams on the play-in line like last year. The biggest loser? Ohio State, last week an 8-seed, fell 4 seeds after losing to Northwestern at home 70-49 and then to UCLA. What's keeping them in at 15-13? Wins over Texas, Kentucky, Purdue, and Maryland—and no bad losses, plus a reasonable remaining schedule. Xavier isn't in many other brackets but the Musketeers are on a 4-game win streak and a win over Creighton Saturday would make other Bracketologists pay attention. West Virginia is our Last Team In so the Big Twelve tournament probably determines their fate.
The lower bubble, or First Eight Out. Georgia is the only team that drops out, and just barely, from a 12-seed play-in to the First Four Out after a competitive game at Auburn. This is very good news for Oklahoma, our First Team Out. The Sooners have been borderline all year, at 13-0 and still now at 17-10. Their big win over Mississippi State reversed their momentum, breaking a 5-game losing streak. With Georgia fading, Oklahoma is SEC team #13 which sounds a lot better than SEC team #14. Drake keeps marching upward, eyeing an at-large in case of a Missouri Valley tournament loss, but with only two games left the Bulldogs are going to be borderline at best.
Record At-lg Dance Chance Total
Rank Team Conf Curr Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg %Odds seed prev
48. Oklahoma SEC 17-10 17-14 49.7 +7.1 0.0 0.0 49.8
49. Drake MVC 25-3 27-3 47.7 +5.9 0.0 0.0 54.9 12 12
50. Georgia SEC 16-11 18-13 47.7 +0.7 0.0 0.0 47.8 12p
51. Indiana B10 16-11 18-13 47.2 +17.3 0.0 0.0 47.3
52. SMU ACC 20-7 24-7 43.1 -2.5 0.0 0.0 43.5
53. Santa Clara WCC 19-10 20-11 40.4 +6.2 0.0 0.0 41.7
54. UC Irvine BW 23-5 27-5 39.7 -4.0 0.0 0.0 44.9
55. North Carolina ACC 17-11 20-12 39.5 +4.6 0.0 0.0 39.8
Indiana is the big news below the waterline. The Hoosiers were left for dead a few weeks ago with a lame duck coach; since then they've beaten both Michigan State and Purdue, and have a reasonable shot at winning out. Just this week they gain 17%, and that includes losing at home to UCLA; looks like a win over Purdue outranks that. SMU and North Carolina are here from the ACC; SMU's record is good but they have few good wins. North Carolina's record is bad and they have few good wins. The Tar Heels should go 3-0 before meeting Duke at home, a game which could loft them into the seedings. SMU ought to win out. Santa Clara is another team no one is giving any props, but we have them at 40% odds for an at-large! The WCC doesn't get much respect though, so no one cares. And it's true, 19-10 from the WCC wouldn't catch my eye either, but they're #52 in the NET rankings and we have them #53 here. The Broncos have a shot at sweeping Gonzaga on Tuesday and probably need to win that one to be in real consideration. UC Irvine is another mid-major longshot, but at least they are 23-5; lack of big wins holds them back, too.
Here's the ten teams just below the "proper" bubble. ACC teams Wake Forest and Pittsburgh are here; most people have Wake higher due to their 11-5 ACC record but the Selection Committee is pretty adamant that conference record holds little weight. The Deacs lost to NC State on Saturday which put them further in limbo, while Pitt lost over 10% by losing to Notre Dame the same day. The good news is that the ACC tournament is ripe with mediocre teams to pad their win-loss record if they need a few wins to get in; the bad news is that there is little chance of winning the four games required to get an auto-bid, especially with Duke in the mix. Colorado State makes a solid move up here after beating Nevada and UNLV, and they actually move ahead of SDSU in conference standings. The Rams lack big non-conference wins though. Same thing with San Francisco, who is 22-7 from the WCC but we rate below Santa Clara (like the NET does).
Record At-lg Dance Chance Total
Rank Team Conf Curr Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg %Odds seed prev
56. Wake Forest ACC 19-8 22-9 37.0 -3.5 0.0 0.0 37.2
57. San Francisco WCC 22-7 22-9 34.0 +3.4 0.0 0.0 35.0
58. Colorado St. MWC 18-9 20-11 32.1 +11.0 0.0 0.0 32.9
59. Pittsburgh ACC 16-11 19-12 31.4 -10.7 0.0 0.0 31.7
60. Cincinnati B12 16-11 18-13 30.9 +2.0 0.0 0.0 31.1
61. Liberty CUSA 22-5 26-5 24.9 +0.5 0.0 0.0 50.7 12 12
62. Villanova BE 16-12 19-12 20.7 +5.7 0.0 0.0 21.4
63. North Texas Amer 20-6 24-6 19.5 +3.6 0.0 0.0 22.1
64. George Mason A10 21-6 25-6 18.7 -2.5 0.0 0.0 24.6
65. Dayton A10 18-9 21-10 17.8 -5.4 0.0 0.0 21.6
Not much to say about the others as only the Major conference teams have the opportunity needed to move up much. Cincinnati gets a shot at Houston on Saturday, while Villanova just beat Marquette and it didn't help all that much. North Texas and Liberty should both win out but it won't help much. And George Mason just lost to VCU, which was their chance to gain some at-large respect; instead they are about tied with Dayton, who lost to Loyola Chicago but does play VCU in the final game. Too little, too late, though: both teams almost certainly need to win the Atlantic 10 tournament to get in.