The SEC still rules. Seven of the top ten teams are from the SEC; the conference is almost certain to have three 1-seeds now; only Houston really stands in the way of that. Auburn, Florida, Duke, and either Alabama or Tennessee are the favorites.
Record At-lg Dance Chance Total Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg %Odds seed prev 1. Auburn SEC 23-2 28-3 29-2 100.0 0.0 99.0 +0.3 100.0 1 1 2. Florida SEC 22-3 27-4 27-4 100.0 0.0 87.2 +7.5 100.0 1 1 3. Duke ACC 22-3 28-3 28-3 >99.9 0.0 73.0 +2.9 >99.9 1 1 4. Alabama SEC 21-4 24-7 25-6 >99.9 0.0 59.1 +2.6 >99.9 1 2 5. Tennessee SEC 21-5 25-6 26-5 >99.9 0.0 53.3 -11.7 >99.9 2 1 6. Houston B12 21-4 26-5 27-4 >99.9 +0.1 11.8 +4.6 >99.9 2 2 7. Texas A&M SEC 20-5 23-8 23-8 >99.9 +0.3 2.5 -0.9 >99.9 2 2 8. Michigan B10 20-5 24-7 25-6 99.9 +1.6 2.2 +0.4 >99.9 2 3
Houston topped both Baylor and Arizona to keep themselves in 1-seed contention. Also, Michigan took over the pole position in the Big Ten by beating Purdue and Ohio State. Texas A&M is probably stuck as a 2-seed considering they are 5th in line in the SEC.
That's probably the case for Missouri, too, unless they beat Alabama on Wednesday; but Kentucky has 6.2% odds, ahead of even Texas A&M. The Wildcats have wins over Duke, Gonzaga, Louisville, Florida, Texas A&M, and Tennessee twice. They get a shot at Alabama on Saturday, and Auburn in a few weeks.
Record At-lg Dance Chance Total Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg %Odds seed prev 9. Missouri SEC 19-6 23-8 24-7 99.9 +1.9 0.9 +0.4 >99.9 3 3 10. Kentucky SEC 17-8 20-11 20-11 99.8 +1.7 6.2 +1.5 99.9 3 3 11. Purdue B10 19-7 22-9 22-9 99.8 0.0 0.9 -5.5 99.9 3 2 12. Maryland B10 20-6 25-7 25-7 99.8 +1.9 1.7 +0.6 99.8 3 3 13. Wisconsin B10 20-5 24-7 25-6 99.5 +4.1 0.7 +0.4 99.5 4 5 14. Iowa St. B12 20-5 24-7 25-6 99.5 +2.5 0.8 -0.1 99.5 4 4 15. Michigan St. B10 20-5 23-8 24-7 98.2 +2.0 0.3 -0.6 98.2 4 4 16. Texas Tech B12 20-5 24-7 24-7 98.1 +4.8 0.1 0.0 98.2 4 6
But Purdue pretty much wrecked their 1-seed odds—down from 6.4% to 0.9%—after losses to Michigan and Wisconsin. The Badgers are one of many Big Ten teams striving for a 2-seed—along with Michigan, Purdue, Maryland and Michigan State—but not realistically a 1-seed. The Big Twelve's 2-seed contenders include Iowa State and Texas Tech; the Cyclones face Houston Saturday.
Two more Big Tens top the 5-seed line. Illinois beat UCLA but then lost to Michigan State at home, and that sapped most of their remaining 1-seed consideration. St. John's lost to Villanova last Wednesday but a win over Creighton kept them ahead of Marquette in the Big East.
Record At-lg Dance Chance Total Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg %Odds seed prev 17. UCLA B10 19-7 22-9 23-8 96.8 +2.5 <0.1 0.0 96.9 5 5 18. Illinois B10 17-9 20-11 19-12 96.3 0.0 0.2 -1.9 96.4 5 4 19. St. John's BE 22-4 26-5 26-5 95.7 +2.0 0.0 -0.1 96.4 5 5 20. Mississippi SEC 19-7 21-10 20-11 94.9 -1.1 0.0 -0.2 95.0 5 4 21. Kansas B12 17-8 21-10 22-9 94.5 +0.9 <0.1 0.0 94.7 6 6 22. Marquette BE 19-6 23-8 24-7 93.6 +1.8 0.0 -0.1 94.2 6 6 23. Arizona B12 17-8 21-10 21-10 92.0 -2.2 <0.1 0.0 92.2 6 5 24. Clemson ACC 21-5 25-6 25-6 86.8 +10.8 0.0 0.0 87.7 6 7
Arizona was on a roll until last week where they lost to both K-State and Houston; Kansas lost at Utah and has now dropped 4 of their last 7 games. In the ACC, Clemson had one of the better weeks of any team, beating North Carolina by 20 and FSU by 26.
Mississippi State topped Mississippi a few days after losing to Florida and fell a notch (as did Ole Miss). In the WCC both Gonzaga and St. Mary's won twice; the Zags stayed ahead in our projection after beating Pepperdine by 52 points! The teams rematch on Saturday; the Gaels won the first time around, at Gonzaga.
Record At-lg Dance Chance Total Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg %Odds seed prev 25. Mississippi St. SEC 18-7 21-10 21-10 86.2 +4.0 0.0 -0.1 86.4 7 6 26. Gonzaga WCC 20-7 23-8 24-7 85.7 +5.4 0.0 0.0 88.3 7 7 27. Oregon B10 18-8 21-10 22-9 84.5 +9.1 0.0 0.0 84.7 7 8 28. Saint Mary's WCC 23-4 26-5 26-5 81.1 +6.7 0.0 0.0 83.1 7 8 29. New Mexico MWC 22-4 25-6 25-6 77.7 +5.3 0.0 0.0 81.3 8 8 30. Louisville ACC 20-6 24-7 25-6 74.7 +6.5 0.0 0.0 75.9 8 9 31. Ohio St. B10 15-11 18-13 19-12 73.2 -5.0 0.0 0.0 73.6 8 7 32. Memphis Amer 21-5 25-6 26-5 72.9 -0.7 0.0 0.0 77.6 8 8
Oregon broke their 5-game skid, beating Northwestern and Rutgers, while Ohio State split games with Washington and Michigan. The Ducks and Buckeyes swapped seedings. New Mexico solidified their hold on the Mountain West—and an at-large bid, if needed—by beating Utah State 82-79, their 8th win in a row. Memphis, on the other hand, took a hit with an overtime loss at Wichita State; it barely impacted their odds.
Barely any movement in seeds 9 and 10; Creighton fell from a 7-seed following losses to St. John's and UConn; the Huskies balanced out the upset win with an overtime loss at Seton Hall and held steady. Utah State also held steady—gaining about 4% even—despite their loss to New Mexico.
Record At-lg Dance Chance Total Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg %Odds seed prev 33. Baylor B12 16-9 20-11 20-11 72.3 +4.0 0.0 0.0 72.9 9 9 34. Creighton BE 18-8 22-9 22-9 70.0 -5.7 0.0 0.0 71.9 9 7 35. Vanderbilt SEC 17-8 19-12 19-12 69.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 69.5 9 9 36. Connecticut BE 17-8 21-10 22-9 67.7 -1.4 0.0 0.0 69.2 9 9 37. Utah St. MWC 22-4 26-5 26-5 66.6 +3.9 0.0 0.0 69.9 10 10 38. Texas SEC 16-10 19-12 19-12 66.2 +2.4 0.0 0.0 66.5 10 10 39. Nebraska B10 17-9 20-11 19-12 63.5 +2.7 0.0 0.0 63.8 10 10
Vanderbilt lost twice but still held their seed, and their odds didn't change at all. The losses? 80-68 to Auburn, and 81-76 at Tennessee. Texas lost 103-80 at home to Alabama, but their 82-78 upset of Kentucky more than balanced that out.
The Bubble: BYU was the biggest percentage gainer in the country this week; the Cougars beat West Virginia on the road and a red-hot Kansas State team 80-65 at home, vaulting them back into the seedings. Xavier joined them, but in a more tepid fashion as as 12-seed play-in team. The Musketeers just took care of business with two Big East wins. The San Diego teams held steady, with UC San Diego winning their 7th straight and SDSU getting two more MWC wins.
Record At-lg Dance Chance Total Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg %Odds seed prev 40. BYU B12 17-8 20-11 20-11 59.0 +11.8 0.0 0.0 59.6 10 41. UC San Diego BW 22-4 28-4 28-4 58.2 +2.8 0.0 0.0 67.0 11 11 42. San Diego St. MWC 17-6 21-8 22-7 57.4 +7.9 0.0 0.0 60.2 11 11p 43. Arkansas SEC 15-10 18-13 18-13 56.5 +1.6 0.0 0.0 56.9 11p 11p 44. VCU A10 20-5 25-6 26-5 50.5 +6.1 0.0 0.0 60.4 11 12 45. West Virginia B12 15-10 18-13 19-12 50.1 -5.8 0.0 0.0 50.8 11p 11p 46. Xavier BE 16-10 20-11 21-10 49.0 +7.0 0.0 0.0 50.8 12p 47. Georgia SEC 16-10 18-13 18-13 47.0 -14.3 0.0 0.0 47.4 12p 10
Arkansas and Georgia helped the SEC hold 13 teams this week, down by 1 and with the Bulldogs teetering on the edge after two more losses. Getting beat by Texas A&M and Missouri, both potential 2-seeds, is not a terrible thing but it puts Georgia in a bad place record-wise, projected to be 18-13 which is pretty borderline. The Razorbacks also fell to the Aggies. VCU beat Dayton and is widening their "lead" in the Atlantic 10 (where they are 2nd place in the standings).
Oklahoma is the reason the SEC is down a team. The Sooners looked like they were turning a corner not long ago, but lost twice last week. The 24-point loss at Missouri was not a killer but the 3-point loss to LSU, at home, was. It was the easiest game left on their schedule and they needed it. Every team left on their slate is seeded above them so they still have opportunity; they control their own destiny but it's a rough road.
Record At-lg Dance Chance Total Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg %Odds seed prev 48. SMU ACC 19-6 23-8 25-6 45.6 -2.0 0.0 0.0 47.2 49. UC Irvine BW 22-4 27-5 28-4 43.7 +2.9 0.0 0.0 50.8 50. Oklahoma SEC 16-9 18-13 16-15 42.6 -15.9 0.0 0.0 42.9 11 51. Boise St. MWC 17-8 21-10 23-8 42.3 -1.0 0.0 0.0 45.2 52. Pittsburgh ACC 15-10 19-12 20-11 42.1 -6.4 0.0 0.0 43.4 11p 53. Drake MVC 23-3 26-4 26-4 41.8 +0.2 0.0 0.0 53.8 12 12 54. Wake Forest ACC 19-7 22-9 23-8 40.5 +4.6 0.0 0.0 41.4 55. North Carolina ACC 15-11 19-13 20-12 34.9 -5.5 0.0 0.0 36.1
Most of the rest of the First-Second Four Out are from the ACC, who has 3 teams in right now but should end up with 4 or 5. SMU beat Pittsburgh but fell at home to Wake Forest. The Deacs were coming off a home loss to Florida State, while Pitt recovered to beat Miami but understandably fell off the play-in line. North Carolina has 11 losses but 5 of their last 6 games should be wins so odds are they'll hit 20 wins before Selection Sunday. Drake took a hit by losing at home to Bradley, but they are still in the driver's seat in the Missouri Valley.
Indiana got a great win over Michigan State to start the week but couldn't hold home court vs. UCLA. Still, the Hoosiers put their name back in the at-large hat at nearly 30%. Oregon State started last week in a terrible fashion, losing to lowly Portland, while Kansas State increased their win streak to six games—topping Arizona 73-70—before falling at BYU 80-65. The Wildcats were still up slightly, to 8.2%.
Record At-lg Dance Chance Total Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg %Odds seed prev 58. Indiana B10 15-11 17-14 17-14 29.9 +10.6 0.0 0.0 30.4 64. Bradley MVC 21-6 24-7 25-6 19.6 +9.7 0.0 0.0 29.6 69. Oregon St. WCC 18-9 20-11 21-10 9.4 -12.6 0.0 0.0 12.8 71. Kansas St. B12 13-12 16-15 15-16 8.2 +3.5 0.0 0.0 8.9 75. UCF B12 13-12 16-15 17-14 6.1 -7.3 0.0 0.0 6.5 79. Northwestern B10 13-13 15-16 15-16 3.6 -7.7 0.0 0.0 4.2 82. Stanford ACC 16-10 18-13 18-13 1.5 -6.1 0.0 0.0 2.5 85. Penn St. B10 13-13 15-16 15-16 1.4 -12.8 0.0 0.0 2.0
UCF, Northwestern, and Stanford are all major-conference teams whose at-large dreams are dying. UCF lost their sixth game in a row on Saturday, and still have a 6.1% chance probably due to playing Oklahoma State twice yet. Northwestern lost their 10th game in 13 tries and are down to 3.6% (an opportunity play, as the Wildcats face UCLA and Maryland at the end). Stanford lost twice, the worse by far being the 106-70 drubbing at Duke. Finally, Penn State continues their collapse, down from 14.2% to just 1.4% after losing their 11th game in 12 tries. Thei Lions' only Big Ten wins are Rutgers—and Purdue!