Who's number 1? Auburn, still, in both the AP poll and the Dance Chance projection. A single loss, even at home, doesn't topple the top team in all cases. The Tigers crushed Oklahoma 98-70 before they fell to Florida, 90-81; the Gator reached the mythical 100% status as a result and doubled their 1-seed odds from around 40% to near 80%. Speaking of 1-seeds, Tennessee joins the group after beating Missouri and beating Oklahoma by 18. Duke held their 1-seed despite the upset loss to Clemson and has a 70% (down from 87%) chance of holding it to Selection Sunday. That makes five teams with >50% for a 1-seed. The odd man out was Alabama, who drops to a 2-seed in a crowded battle for the 1-line. It's the Tide's future schedule that makes things uncertain: they play Auburn twice and Florida and Tennessee once each. This means they control their destiny for a 1-seed but it's a tough road. Incidentally, Auburn, Florida, and Tennessee are done playing each other, so the Tide really hold the lock and key to the SEC regular-season championship. They host Auburn this coming Saturday.
Record At-lg Dance Chance Total
Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg %Odds seed prev
1. Auburn SEC 21-2 28-3 29-2 100.0 0.0 98.7 +0.3 100.0 1 1
2. Florida SEC 20-3 26-5 27-4 100.0 +0.2 79.7 +39.7 100.0 1 2
3. Duke ACC 20-3 27-4 28-3 >99.9 0.0 70.1 -17.4 >99.9 1 1
4. Tennessee SEC 20-4 25-6 27-4 >99.9 0.0 65.0 +12.2 >99.9 1 1
5. Alabama SEC 20-3 24-7 25-6 >99.9 0.0 56.5 +0.2 >99.9 2 1
6. Purdue B10 19-5 23-8 23-8 99.8 +1.0 6.4 -0.1 99.9 2 2
7. Houston B12 19-4 25-6 27-4 99.8 0.0 7.2 -15.0 99.9 2 2
8. Texas A&M SEC 18-5 22-9 23-8 99.6 +2.6 3.4 -0.7 99.6 2 3
Does anyone else have a shot at a 1-seed? Hardly. Purdue and Houston have hope but they'll need to finish very strong and probably win their conference tournament. Houston was underwhelming against Oklahoma State (72-63) and Colorado (69-59), the easiest teams that were left on their slate, hence their much-diminished 1-seed odds. And after those two we have yet another SEC team, Texas A&M, who racked up two SEC road wins last week.
There's even more SEC on the 3- and 4-lines: Missouri was one of Texas A&M's victims, but only 67-64, and the Tigers also came within 4 points of beating Tennessee on the road. As a result the Tigers actually gained Dance Chance odds and moved up to a 3-seed from a 4. Kentucky split games with Mississippi (loss) and South Carolina (win) and held steady, but the loss drove their once-mighty 1-seed odd to less than 5% with Tennessee coming to town Tuesday. Speaking of Ole Miss, the UK win helped propel them back up to a borderline 4-seed. The rest of this area is dominated by the Big Ten, starting with Michigan, who takes over the revolving door of Big Ten #2 teams as the Wolverines escaped both Oregon and Indiana last week.
Record At-lg Dance Chance Total
Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg %Odds seed prev
9. Michigan B10 18-5 23-8 24-7 98.3 +1.9 1.8 -1.7 98.5 3 4
10. Kentucky SEC 16-7 20-11 20-11 98.1 +0.4 4.7 -4.1 98.1 3 3
11. Missouri SEC 17-6 22-9 23-8 98.0 +2.6 0.5 -1.1 98.0 3 4
12. Maryland B10 18-6 24-8 25-7 97.9 +0.9 1.1 -1.4 98.1 3 3
13. Iowa St. B12 18-5 24-7 25-6 97.0 -0.3 0.9 -2.3 97.4 4 3
14. Illinois B10 16-8 20-11 21-10 96.3 -1.7 2.1 -5.1 96.5 4 2
15. Michigan St. B10 19-4 23-8 24-7 96.2 +1.8 0.9 -1.0 96.3 4 4
16. Mississippi SEC 18-6 21-10 22-9 96.0 +9.7 0.2 0.0 96.0 4 6
The other members of the crowded Big Ten pack here are Maryland (lost at Ohio State, beat Rutgers at home); Illinois (lost to Rutgers, beat Minnesota, both on the road); and Michigan State (lost at UCLA 63-61, beat Oregon at home). Not too hard to see why these Big Ten teams can't push to the higher seeds, is it? In fact, every team in this region lost 1-seed odds; in the last month, those odds tend to consolidate at the top and drain from every other team. Iowa State's 1-seed chances are now around 1% after a big loss (69-52) at Kansas. The Cyclones recovered to beat TCU 82-52, breaking a 3-game losing streak.
And there are more Big Ten teams just below. If the SEC is dominating the top 2 seeds, the Big Ten is killing it from 3-5. Wisconsin and UCLA are both 9-4 in conference. The Badgers never make the spotlight as they have beaten the teams their supposed to, and have lost in the Big Ten only to Michigan, Illinois, Maryland, and UCLA. They face Purdue in West Lafayette next. The Bruins lost their 4 games all in a row and since then are on a 7-0 run with Illinois next on Tuesday in Champaign. The Big Twelve is well-represented here, too. Arizona is on a tear lately, adding Texas Tech to a 6-game win streak and ending the Red Raiders' own 7-game streak. Kansas followed a great win over Iowa State with a crushing defeat at Kansas State, 81-73.
Record At-lg Dance Chance Total
Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg %Odds seed prev
17. Wisconsin B10 19-5 24-7 23-8 95.4 +3.9 0.3 -0.3 95.5 5 5
18. UCLA B10 18-6 22-9 23-8 94.3 +7.6 0.1 0.0 94.4 5 6
19. Arizona B12 17-6 22-9 22-9 94.2 +5.9 0.1 0.0 94.6 5 5
20. St. John's BE 21-3 26-5 27-4 93.7 +8.1 0.1 0.0 95.6 5 6
21. Kansas B12 16-7 22-9 23-8 93.6 -1.2 0.1 -1.2 93.9 6 4
22. Texas Tech B12 18-5 24-7 24-7 93.3 +1.4 <0.1 -0.7 93.5 6 5
23. Marquette BE 18-6 23-8 24-7 91.8 -1.4 <0.1 -0.2 93.0 6 5
24. Mississippi St. SEC 17-6 21-10 19-12 82.2 +8.3 <0.1 0.0 82.3 6 8
But the biggest news in the 5-6 lines is the rise of St. John's to take over as the top team in the Big East. The Red Storm beat Marquette and Connecticut last week, extending their win streak to 10 games. Marquette helped out by losing to Creighton, their third loss in a row—and Creighton's 9th win in a row. Something's gotta give when St. John's hosts the Blue Jays this coming Sunday.
Like Creighton, Clemson rode a big upset to a 2-seed rise. The Tigers beat Duke 77-71 on Saturday following a 3-overtime upset home loss to Georgia Tech, so it could have been even more beneficial. In the WCC Gonzaga holds on to our top spot despite being 2 games behind St. Mary's. The Gaels didn't help their cause by losing at San Francisco, 65-64.
Record At-lg Dance Chance Total
Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg %Odds seed prev
25. Gonzaga WCC 18-7 23-8 24-7 80.3 -0.6 0.0 0.0 86.2 7 6
26. Ohio St. B10 14-10 19-12 20-11 78.2 -0.6 0.0 -0.1 78.4 7 7
27. Clemson ACC 19-5 24-7 25-6 76.0 +6.7 0.0 0.0 79.4 7 9
28. Creighton BE 18-6 23-8 23-8 75.7 +7.4 0.0 0.0 77.6 7 9
29. Oregon B10 16-8 20-11 22-9 75.4 -3.0 0.0 0.0 75.6 8 7
30. Saint Mary's WCC 21-4 26-5 26-5 74.4 +0.3 0.0 0.0 78.3 8 8
31. Memphis Amer 20-4 26-5 27-4 73.6 -1.0 0.0 0.0 81.3 8 8
32. New Mexico MWC 20-4 25-6 26-5 72.4 +4.6 0.0 0.0 80.6 8 9
More Big Ten above: Ohio State slips a bit after losing at Nebraska, 79-71, while Oregon has now lost five straight games. At 16-8 they're still an 8-seed thanks to a pre-season résumé that includes wins over Texas A&M, San Diego State, and Alabama. The Ducks last two losses were to Michigan and Michigan State, both on the road. The top teams in the American and Mountain West—Memphis and New Mexico—are both projected 8-seeds. The Tigers have won 7 straight conference games, the Lobos 6 in a row.
Just above bubble territory, Vanderbilt continues their surge with an 88-78 win over Texas (following a very-expected loss at Florida). The Longhorns also lost at home to Arkansas which dumped them from a 7- to a 10-seed, down 14% in tournament odds. Connecticut upset Marquette but the home loss to St. John's was more impactful and the Huskies fell 2 seeds. Louisville is favored in every game going forward—which means upset losses can hurt the Cards, who have won 12 of their last 13 games. Utah State faces Mountain West leader New Mexico on Sunday.
Record At-lg Dance Chance Total
Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg %Odds seed prev
33. Vanderbilt SEC 17-6 19-12 18-13 69.2 +9.8 0.0 0.0 69.3 9 11p
34. Connecticut BE 16-7 21-10 22-9 69.1 -7.0 0.0 0.0 70.4 9 7
35. Baylor B12 15-8 20-11 20-11 68.3 -3.1 0.0 0.0 68.8 9 8
36. Louisville ACC 18-6 24-7 25-6 68.2 +2.6 0.0 0.0 70.6 9 10
37. Texas SEC 15-9 19-12 18-13 63.8 -14.0 0.0 -0.1 63.9 10 7
38. Utah St. MWC 21-3 26-5 26-5 62.7 -2.4 0.0 0.0 68.3 10 10
The Bubble: Georgia split home games last week, beating LSU but losing to Mississippi State, giving them 6 losses in their last 8 games. Nebraska surges back into the seedings with 4 straight wins (following 6 straight losses). Arkansas also joins, giving the SEC a ridiculous 14 teams in the tournament (expectation odds say 12 will make it). The Razorbacks beat Texas on the road and lost to Alabama by 4 points. Oklahoma is another SEC team trying to hold on. The Sooners lost twice last week, to 1-seeds Auburn and Tennessee (by 28 and 18 points).
Record At-lg Dance Chance Total
Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg %Odds seed prev
39. Georgia SEC 16-8 19-12 19-12 61.3 -0.9 0.0 -0.1 61.4 10 10
40. Nebraska B10 16-8 19-12 18-13 60.8 +14.8 0.0 0.0 61.0 10
41. Oklahoma SEC 16-7 19-12 18-13 58.5 -7.6 0.0 0.0 58.6 11 9
42. West Virginia B12 15-8 19-12 20-11 55.9 -4.8 0.0 0.0 56.3 11p 11
43. UC San Diego BW 20-4 27-5 28-4 55.4 +7.6 0.0 0.0 68.6 11 11
44. Arkansas SEC 14-9 18-13 18-13 54.9 +7.6 0.0 0.0 55.0 11p
45. San Diego St. MWC 15-6 20-9 21-8 49.5 -5.0 0.0 0.0 53.4 11p 11p
46. Pittsburgh ACC 14-9 20-11 20-11 48.5 -10.9 0.0 0.0 50.6 11p 11p
West Virginia is fighting to stay above water in the Big Twelve, as is Pittsburgh in the ACC. Both lost last week, Pitt twice in fact to Virginia (at home) and North Carolina (at UNC, by a point). In non-major conferences, two San Diego teams are on the bubble: San Diego State survived an upset at Colorado State to remain among the projected Last Four In. UC San Diego won a huge Big West showdown, beating Cal-Irvine on the road 85-67 avenging their home loss to the Anteaters in January.
That loss to the Tritons hurt UC Irvine's at-large hopes but they're still 20-4, and both teams have a solid chance of winning out, meaning a Big West tournament runner-up is viable. VCU and Drake are conference leaders who might survive a conference tournament loss, but can't count on it. Boise State faces San Diego State on Saturday in a key Mountain West bubble-team battle.
Record At-lg Dance Chance Total
Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg %Odds seed prev
47. SMU ACC 18-5 23-8 26-5 47.6 +2.3 0.0 0.0 48.8
48. BYU B12 15-8 19-12 19-12 47.2 -15.4 0.0 0.0 47.6 10
49. VCU A10 19-5 25-6 26-5 44.4 -1.0 0.0 0.0 60.3 12 12
50. Boise St. MWC 17-7 22-9 23-8 43.3 +3.9 0.0 0.0 45.7
51. Xavier BE 14-10 19-12 21-10 42.0 -5.8 0.0 0.0 43.3 11p
52. Drake MVC 22-2 26-4 28-2 41.6 +0.9 0.0 0.0 69.3 12 12
53. UC Irvine BW 20-4 27-5 28-4 40.8 -4.8 0.0 0.0 49.8
54. North Carolina ACC 14-10 19-13 20-12 40.4 +2.7 0.0 0.0 41.3
SMU at 18-5 and North Carolina at 14-10 have roughly the same outlook: outside looking in but within striking distance. UNC's 1-point win over Pitt at home was critical and the remaining schedule is favorable for the Tar Heels, who have several losses to top 25 teams (all but 3 or so), while SMU really lacks good wins. Falling out of the seedings this week are BYU, who lost to Arizona and Cincinnati (by 18), and Xavier who edged Georgetown by 5 and lost to Villanova.
Wake Forest is 10-3 in the ACC after road wins over Stanford and Cal and are just outside the Second Four Out. San Francisco's win over St. Mary's has the Dons back in at-large talk, but they really need beat Gonzaga on Thursday to put themselves in the actual discussion. Cincinnati seemed to be down for the count after a 4-game losing streak but wins over UCF and BYU doubled their odds in 7 days. And Villanova beat DePaul and Xavier to get back in double digits. They, too, need to follow through with an upset of St. John's on Wednesday to really get back in the mix.
Record At-lg Dance Chance Total
Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg %Odds seed prev
55. Wake Forest ACC 18-6 22-9 23-8 35.9 +9.5 0.0 0.0 36.6
57. San Francisco WCC 20-6 22-9 22-9 27.1 +8.8 0.0 0.0 30.1
58. Cincinnati B12 14-9 18-13 18-13 25.2 +12.8 0.0 0.0 25.6
68. Villanova BE 14-10 18-13 18-13 14.6 +5.3 0.0 0.0 15.7
69. Penn St. B10 13-11 16-15 16-15 14.2 -20.9 0.0 0.0 14.5
70. UCF B12 13-10 17-14 18-13 13.4 -14.1 0.0 0.0 13.8
72. Arkansas St. SB 18-7 23-8 24-7 10.4 -10.2 0.0 0.0 52.1 13 12
82. Arizona St. B12 12-11 15-16 13-18 3.6 -16.3 0.0 0.0 3.8
103. St. Bonaventure A10 17-8 20-11 20-11 0.1 -9.0 0.0 0.0 2.5
The rest of the teams above had the opposite luck, though. Penn State's season has really stalled out, with 9 losses in 10 tries after a 12-2 start. Last week was their worst yet, down over 20% following a home loss to Minnesota and 78-54 loss to UCLA. 14.2% seems generous for a 3-10 Big Ten team, but other teams have bounced back from big skids. We'll see. UCF's odds were cut in half by losses to Cincinnati and Baylor, putting them at 4-8 in the Big Twelve. Arizona State, also in the Big Twelve, lost 16.3%—or over 4/5 of their roughly 20% from last week. The Sun Devils almost beat Kansas State but lost to Oklahoma State by 13.
The last two teams above aren't in a major conference so they have less opportunity for big wins. Arkansas State shouldn't need a bid as they are the best team in the Sun Belt. But last week's losses to Marshall and Kent State (in a non-conference game) pretty much sealed the deal; the Red Wolves will need to win the Sun Belt tournament. And St. Bonaventure had about the worst week in recent memory based on odds ratio, losing 9.0% of their previous 9.1%, or almost 99% of their chance for an auto-bid. What caused this? A 77-53 road loss to Loyola-Chicago and a 62-52 home loss to George Washington. They, too, will be dependent on winning the Atlantic 10 tournament to get in, but Arkansas State's odds are a bit stronger in that sense.