SportsRatings: College Basketball

Auburn, Duke lose; New #1 should be...Auburn, no question

Auburn lost to Florida at home, but the Tigers should remain the #1 team. 

No team has done anything close to what Auburn has done this year in terms of big wins, and having a 2nd loss doesn't change that.

With Duke losing, there's no reason to put anyone else ahead of the Tigers.

It sounds like people are talking about putting Alabama at #1, Tennessee at #2, Auburn at #3? Pretty silly. Look at the résumés and tell me either of those teams comes close to Auburn.

The NET statistics tell the story: Auburn has 12 Quad 1 wins. Duke 5, Alabama 6, Tennessee 7.

Alabama and Tennessee have more losses, too. Tennessee lost by 30 points, and to Vanderbilt, and to Auburn. How can they possibly be ahead of Auburn?

The AP voters should keep things steady with Auburn at #1.

SEC: Three 1-seeds, 14 teams in tournament?

For the last month or two, the Dance Chance has been showing three SEC teams as 1-seeds with regularity. And every time I've said, ok, this won't last, the SEC will get two 1-seeds as one falls by the wayside and a strong non-SEC team will surge into the 1-line.

It hasn't happened; in fact, the SEC now has four very strong 1-seed candidates (Auburn, Alabama, Tennessee, Florida) and the other conferences have just one (Duke). 

Auburn is about as close to a lock for a 1-seed as you can get. Duke isn't that far behind, meaning it won't be an SEC sweep at least!

                                      Record      At-lg   Dance Chance    Total
Rank Team                 Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg %Odds seed prev
  1. Auburn               SEC  21-1  28-3   30-1  100.0   0.0  98.8  +0.4  100%   1    1 
  2. Duke                 ACC  20-2  28-3   29-2  >99.9   0.0  88.0  +0.5 >99.9   1    1 
  3. Alabama              SEC  19-3  24-7   25-6  >99.9   0.0  58.4  +2.1 >99.9   1    1 
  4. Tennessee            SEC  19-4  25-6   27-4  >99.9   0.0  58.6  +5.8 >99.9   1    1 
  5. Florida              SEC  19-3  25-6   26-5  >99.9  +0.1  44.8  +4.8 >99.9   2    2 
  6. Houston              B12  18-4  25-6   27-4   99.8   0.0  16.6  -5.6  99.8   2    2 
  7. Purdue               B10  18-5  23-8   23-8   99.7  +0.9  10.6  +4.1  99.8   2    2

The competition for the last two 1-seeds is primarily among Alabama, Tennessee and Florida, with only Houston and Purdue now looking like strong contenders from the other major conference. 

And the rest of the country is coming around to the "three SEC 1-seeds" point of view: in the Bracket Matrix, there are now three SEC 1-seeds and Florida is the top 2-seed (just as we have it). Joe Lunardi at ESPN gives his blessing to Auburn, Alabama, and Tennessee at this point. 

What changed? Nothing, really. The odds just played out as expected. The Bracket Matrix is largely made of bracket pickers who view the current state of affairs rather than project the season, so they were calling things as they looked at the time. The Dance Chance looks ahead, but even then it's an average of the possibilities. Normally, some teams with similar future odds diverge instead, and I figured one or two of the top SEC teams would hit a rough patch. It sort of happened with Tennessee but they recovered.

Instead it was Iowa State who hit a rough patch; they were a 1-seed in the Bracket Matrix but usually a 2- or 3-seed in the Dance Chance. Houston had a clear path to a 1-seed but they lost to Texas Tech at home and lack great wins. They're still in the running though. Purdue has surged lately but they'll need a really strong finish to be in position for a 1-seed.

The SEC tournament is guaranteed to give every SEC team, save one, a loss, and that will help push down at least four 1-seed contenders! So conference tournament season will boost the Big Ten and Big Twelve—as long as the right teams win! But in general, 1-seeds are very often conference tournament winners when it's really close, and the SEC can only have one of those.

It won't be a big shock if one conference gets three 1-seeds, as it's happened twice before: the Big East in 2009 and ACC in 2019. And now that there are only five major conferences, it's become a lot more likely than it was in the past. 

Not only is the SEC dominating the 1-seed race, but with Oklahoma exceeding our low expectations and Arkansas' recent push (beating Kentucky and Texas), there are 14 SEC teams in the latest Dance Chance projections. By the aggregate odds, however, the SEC should get 11.9 teams, so a couple of the teams that are above the cutline will probably not make it. Right now that would be Arkansas and Vanderbilt.

But a few weeks ago I was still saying a strong contender from the Big Ten or Big Twelve would push out the weaker SEC 1-seed contenders, and that hasn't happened yet. So we might see 14 SEC teams in the tournament—over 20% of the entire field!

Week 13: Bubble teams Oklahoma, New Mexico surge; Nebraska, Arkansas back from dead

A week ago Oklahoma was still trying to escape the bubble the Sooners had been trapped in all season, and New Mexico was fighting to be team #3 selected from the Mountain West. Nebraska and Arkansas were slogging through terrible January that saw both teams take six losses. All four teams may have turned a corner last week. But first, as usual I will start at the top.

Where we find—surprise!—Auburn and Duke, who just keep winning and solidifying their 1-seeds. The Tigers and Blue Devils are 8-0 and 11-0 in conference now, and even though things will get tougher, they didn't stumble like the other conference leaders did last week. Speaking of things getting tougher, Alabama is on top of the world right now at over 50% 1-seed odds, but they have yet to play any of the other top 4 SEC teams. The Tide's March opponents are Tennessee, Florida, Auburn. Talk about a back-loaded schedule! Speaking of Tennessee and Florida, as I predicted (thank you) Tennessee wiped the Gators out in Knoxville. It wasn't as bad as Florida's 30-point beatdown of the Vols in Gainesville, but it put Tennessee at a 1-seed—for now. The Gators fall to a 2-seed and lose a chunk of 1-seed odds, mostly picked up by Alabama since the Vols lost to Kentucky last week at home before the Florida rematch.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
  1. Auburn                 SEC  20-1  28-3   30-1  100.0   0.0  98.4  +0.9    1    1 
  2. Duke                   ACC  19-2  28-3   29-2  >99.9   0.0  87.5  +8.1    1    1 
  3. Alabama                SEC  19-3  24-7   25-6  >99.9  +0.1  56.3 +12.4    1    1 
  4. Tennessee              SEC  18-4  25-6   26-5   99.9  +0.1  52.8  +5.7    1    2 
  5. Houston                B12  17-4  25-6   27-4   99.8  +0.3  22.2  -0.1    2    2 
  6. Florida                SEC  18-3  25-6   26-5   99.8   0.0  40.0 -13.5    2    1 
  7. Purdue                 B10  17-5  23-8   23-8   98.8  +0.8   6.5  +0.3    2    2 
  8. Illinois               B10  15-7  21-10  22-9   98.0  +0.7   7.2  +1.2    2    3 

Houston could have nabbed that 1-seed—they had it on Thursday before their overtime home loss to Texas Tech spoiled things. The Cougars ended up almost dead even from last week's numbers, since so many other teams split their games. That even allowed Illinois to rebound from their overtime loss at Nebraska to move up to a 2-seed. Purdue held on to the Big Ten lead with two home wins including Michigan.

Kentucky was another team that 'split,' going 1-1 with a 78-73 win at Tennessee and a home loss to Arkansas. At first the week looked great for the Wildcats, but ended basically a wash, with their 1-seed odds dwindling further. But Iowa State's week was unequivocally bad, with losses to Arizona and Kansas State. They could have shrugged off the first one but the second, an 80-61 home defeat by a 10-11 team? The Cyclones' 1-seed odds dropped from over 18% to around 3%, and left Houston as the only Big Twelve team standing in the way of the SEC getting three 1-seeds. And Texas A&M had a rare 2-0 week and their odds rose with it; Missouri, too rose after thrashing Mississippi State 88-61 on the road. Those two face each other next Saturday, and Missouri travels to Tennessee prior.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
  9. Kentucky               SEC  15-6  21-10  21-10  97.7  +0.8   8.8  -2.1    3    3 
 10. Iowa St.               B12  17-4  24-7   25-6   97.3  -1.7   3.2 -15.1    3    2 
 11. Maryland               B10  17-5  25-7   25-7   97.0  +3.9   2.5  +1.6    3    4 
 12. Texas A&M              SEC  17-5  22-9   22-9   97.0  +3.4   4.1  +0.8    3    4 
 13. Michigan               B10  16-5  22-9   24-7   96.4  +1.9   3.5  +0.8    4    3 
 14. Missouri               SEC  17-4  23-8   25-6   95.4  +6.3   1.6  +1.0    4    5 
 15. Kansas                 B12  15-6  22-9   24-7   94.8  +0.9   1.3  +0.2    4    4 
 16. Michigan St.           B10  18-3  23-8   24-7   94.4  +0.2   1.9  -0.6    4    4 

The Big Ten got a shake-up at the very top, where Michigan State got their first conference loss at USC. In our pecking order, however, the Spartans are only 5th as their schedule gets much tougher from here while Maryland has now won four in a row and Michigan won twice (by 4 points and 3 points) to sit at 8-2, but still slipped a seed. Kansas barely survived UCF at home then blew a huge lead at Baylor—yet still somehow added to their 1-seed odds, probably because of Iowa State's debacle. The Jayhawks host the Cyclones tonight (Monday).

Marquette was yet another conference leader who slipped up, losing at home to UConn 77-69 in a game that was not nearly that close. The Golden Eagles are only a 5-seed now in our projection but as the top Big East team they'll probably get better consideration and the tournament could help. St. John's, the other co-leader, took over sole possession of first place in the standings by surviving a Providence upset push, 68-66, at home. Texas Tech of course improved their lot by beating Houston at Houston in overtime, their sixth win in a row. 

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 17. Marquette              BE   18-4  24-7   25-6   93.2  -1.7   0.3  -1.3    5    3 
 18. Texas Tech             B12  17-4  24-7   24-7   91.9 +13.5   0.8  +0.7    5    7 
 19. Wisconsin              B10  17-5  23-8   23-8   91.5  +1.4   0.6  -0.3    5    5 
 20. Arizona                B12  15-6  21-10  21-10  88.3  +9.1   0.1   0.0    5    6 
 21. UCLA                   B10  16-6  21-10  23-8   86.7  +9.3   0.1   0.0    6    7 
 22. Mississippi            SEC  16-6  20-11  21-10  86.3  +0.7   0.2  -0.6    6    5 
 23. St. John's             BE   19-3  25-6   27-4   85.6  +4.9   0.1   0.0    6    6 
 24. Gonzaga                WCC  16-7  23-8   24-7   80.9  -1.3   0.0   0.0    6    6 

Arizona has been on a tear since starting 4-5 and the overtime home win over Iowa State is arguably their first big win of the season. Former Pac-12 teammate UCLA, who beat the Wildcats weeks ago, won their 4th and 5th straight. And Gonzaga suffered very little by our numbers for their loss to St. Mary's, holding their 6-seed and remaining WCC favorites. Note the 'Zags continued lofty NET ranking of #12!

Ohio State was a big gainer in odds despite splitting road games vs. Penn State and Illinois. The 1-1 result was expected, while the 19-point win over the Nittany Lions exceeded expectations. Oregon, on the other hand, suffered their 2nd and 3rd loss in a row against UCLA and Nebraska, dropping them a seed. Texas and UConn both rose, the Huskies due to upsetting Marquette, the Longhorns due to their 31-point road beatdown of LSU. Prior to that they lost at Ole Miss, 72-69.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 25. Ohio St.               B10  13-9  19-12  21-10  78.8 +12.4  <0.1   0.0    7    9 
 26. Oregon                 B10  16-6  21-10  22-9   78.4  -6.7   0.0  -0.1    7    6 
 27. Texas                  SEC  15-7  20-11  20-11  77.8  +9.9  <0.1   0.0    7    8 
 28. Connecticut            BE   16-6  22-9   22-9   76.1  +9.2   0.0   0.0    7    9 
 29. Memphis                Amer 18-4  26-5   27-4   74.6  +1.5   0.0   0.0    8    8 
 30. Saint Mary's           WCC  20-3  26-5   27-4   74.1  +9.8   0.0   0.0    8   10 
 31. Mississippi St.        SEC  16-6  20-11  18-13  73.9 -14.0  <0.1  -0.6    8    5 
 32. Baylor                 B12  14-7  20-11  21-10  71.4 +10.4   0.0   0.0    8   10 

St. Mary's rose from a 10 to an 8 after beating Gonzaga, and Baylor's comeback win over Kansas did the same for the Bears. Mississippi State was one of the big losers of the week, falling from their 5-seed perch after losing to Alabama and Missouri, both at home, the latter by 27 points. They're now tied with Texas for 10th place in the SEC.

And finally we get to two of our headline teams: New Mexico and Oklahoma. The Lobos beat Utah State on the road 82-63, making them the new Mountain West favorites and taking them off the bubble for the time being. Utah State dropped to a 10-seed. The Sooners have been on the bubble all year due to low Strength, but their 97-67 win over Vanderbilt was pretty convincing. They already have good wins—Arizona, Louisville, and Michigan, all on neutral courts—so they just have to limit the losses in SEC play.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 33. Clemson                ACC  18-4  24-7   25-6   69.3  -1.2   0.0   0.0    9    8 
 34. Creighton              BE   16-6  22-9   22-9   68.3  +3.2   0.0   0.0    9    9 
 35. New Mexico             MWC  18-4  25-6   25-6   67.8 +10.9   0.0   0.0    9   11 
 36. Oklahoma               SEC  16-5  19-12  18-13  66.1 +12.6   0.0   0.0    9   11p
 37. Louisville             ACC  16-6  24-7   25-6   65.6  -7.3   0.0   0.0   10    8 
 38. Utah St.               MWC  19-3  26-5   26-5   65.1  -8.3   0.0   0.0   10    7 

Speaking of Louisville, the Cards were upset at Georgia Tech, ending their 10-game win streak. They're favored in every game going forward, but lack quality wins. They lost to Tennessee, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Duke, and Kentucky, so their SOS is great but there are no big opportunities on their upcoming slate.

The Bubble: BYU jumps into the ranking on the strength of wins over Baylor and UCF, while Georgia hangs on at a 10-seed despite their 5th loss in 6 tries.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 39. BYU                    B12  15-6  20-11  20-11  62.6 +10.0   0.0   0.0   10      
 40. Georgia                SEC  15-7  19-12  19-12  62.2  -1.7  <0.1   0.0   10   10 
 41. West Virginia          B12  14-7  20-11  21-10  60.7  +5.0   0.0   0.0   11   11p
 42. Pittsburgh             ACC  14-7  21-10  22-9   59.4  -5.1   0.0   0.0   11p   9 
 43. Vanderbilt             SEC  16-5  19-12  18-13  59.4 -13.9   0.0  -0.1   11p   7 
 44. San Diego St.          MWC  15-5  21-8   23-6   54.5  -5.5   0.0   0.0   11p  10 
 45. UC San Diego           BW   18-4  27-5   27-5   47.8  -6.3   0.0   0.0   11   11p
 46. Xavier                 BE   13-9  19-12  21-10  47.8  -6.7   0.0   0.0   11p  11p

Pittsburgh beat North Carolina but lost to Wake Forest, and in today's environment that's a negative. Vanderbilt had it worse, losing by 30 to Oklahoma and falling from a 7-seed all the way to the play-in line. It wasn't that they lost, but the magnitude dents their Strength rating, and hopes for wins going forward (they are only favorites in 2 games). San Diego State dipped despite going 2-0 last week; both were home games, against inferior teams (San Jose State, Wyoming), and dismal results (3 point and 2 point margins). UC San Diego, who beat the Aztecs in the opener in November, also tumbled despite beating Hawaii. But the Tritons regained "leader" status in the Big West, so their "play-in" designation is gone (for now).

UC Irvine held that status in the Big West last week and their 2 games were even less impressive that UCSD's. The Anteaters needed OT to beat 7-16 Long Beach and only topped UC Davis by 7 points. Rushing in to the Last Four Out were Arkansas, who upset Kentucky, and Nebraska, who beat Illinois in overtime and Oregon on the road. Both teams were in the dumps for most of 2025, with 5- and 6-game losing streaks during that month. Now the Razorbacks have won 2 of 3, the Cornhuskers two straight. Time will tell whether their surges continues or were a temporary respite.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 47. Arkansas               SEC  13-8  17-14  17-14  47.3 +14.8   0.0   0.0           
 48. Nebraska               B10  14-8  18-13  17-14  46.0 +22.1   0.0   0.0           
 49. UC Irvine              BW   20-3  27-5   29-3   45.6 -11.6   0.0   0.0        11 
 50. VCU                    A10  17-5  25-6   26-5   45.4  -0.5   0.0   0.0   12   12 
 51. SMU                    ACC  17-5  23-8   25-6   45.3  +0.4   0.0   0.0           
 52. Drake                  MVC  20-2  26-4   28-2   40.7  +1.7   0.0   0.0   12      
 53. Boise St.              MWC  15-7  21-10  23-8   39.4  +5.6   0.0   0.0           
 54. North Carolina         ACC  13-10 19-13  20-12  37.7  -6.7   0.0   0.0           

Drake, now 20-2, regained the leader status in the Missouri Valley. The Bulldogs started 12-0, lost two, and have won 8 straight. North Carolina is in big trouble after losing to Pitt and Duke, but have several easy games left on the schedule so getting to 20 wins is within reach. They might need a tournament win or two to seal the deal, though.

The losers: These teams all had bad weeks, losing 10+ percent from their Dance Chance odds. Penn State has now lost 7 of their last 8 since their 12-2 start, and stand 3-8 in Big Ten play. Still, they're not out of it by any means at 35%, but they have to win some games! Oregon State lost big to Gonzaga (98-60) in payback for their overtime home win vs. the Zags a few weeks ago. They play St. Mary's this Saturday and need the win at home to keep their at-large hopes alive. McNeese realistically needs to win their conference tournament but losing at Nicholls State made any contingency plans even more far-fetched. North Texas, too, needs minimally a very strong finish and American tournament run after losing to UTSA, and they probably need an auto-bid to get in. Northwestern's odds got cut in half this week with two home losses (Rutgers, Wisconsin) putting the Wildcats at 3-8 in Big Ten play.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 55. Penn St.               B10  13-9  18-13  18-13  35.1 -14.4   0.0   0.0           
 58. Oregon St.             WCC  16-7  22-9   22-9   28.7 -10.0   0.0   0.0           
 64. McNeese                Slnd 16-6  24-7   25-6   20.0 -13.5   0.0   0.0   12   12 
 66. North Texas            Amer 16-5  23-7   25-5   19.9 -15.7   0.0   0.0           
 67. Northwestern           B10  12-10 16-15  17-14  19.9 -19.0   0.0   0.0           
 71. Bradley                MVC  18-5  23-8   25-6   16.7 -22.3   0.0   0.0        12 
 75. Cincinnati             B12  12-9  16-15  16-15  12.4 -14.5   0.0   0.0           
 80. LSU                    SEC  12-9  15-16  13-18   6.4 -10.0   0.0   0.0           
 88. Florida St.            ACC  13-9  17-14  16-15   3.4 -16.5   0.0   0.0           

Bradley was tied with Drake last week but the Braves fumbled the bag with losses to Illinois-Chicago and Northern Iowa. They lost more than half their at-large odds! As did Cincinnati in the Big Twelve, losing 4 in a row for the 2nd time this year. LSU dropped 10 percentage points mainly due to the 31-point home loss to Texas; the prior loss to Auburn probably didn't move the needle at all. And Florida State for a while was looking like a great turnaround story but the Seminoles have dropped 4 in a row; the upset losses to Virginia Tech and Boston College knocked their odds from around 20% to just over 3% for an at-large bid. While still ahead of 2023's 9-23 team, they're on-track with last season's 17-16 squad.