SportsRatings: College Basketball

Florida wipes out Tennessee, 73-43: how does it change power ratings?

Florida took an early lead and didn't look back, crushing the final D-I unbeaten Tennessee 73-43. It was supposed to be a battle of the unbeatens but Florida lost a few days ago at Kentucky, meaning that both the Gators and the Vols are 14-1 now.

Just out of curiosity, let's see what this one, lopsided result does to our power ratings: Strength, Success, and Overall.

Strength

This is a "pure points" rating—winner doesn't matter—and it's also unweighted (recent games don't count more). Here is the Strength ranking as of Sunday's games:

#   Team                     Record   Rating
1.  Auburn                    13-1     34.71
2.  Duke                      12-2     32.60
3.  Houston                   10-3     31.29
4.  Tennessee                 14-0     29.69
5.  Gonzaga                   12-4     29.39
6.  Illinois                  11-3     28.49
7.  Iowa St.                  12-1     26.52
8.  Alabama                   12-2     26.43
9.  Florida                   13-1     25.99

Tennessee was undefeated but rated below Auburn, Duke, and Houston in Strength. Florida was 9th going in to tonight's game. With a 3 point home edge, the expected result was Tennessee by about a point; the oddsmakers favored the Gators by 2.5, and the betting public pushed that to 3.5 points.

With tonight's result added in, we have:

#   Team                     Record   Rating
1.  Auburn                    13-1     34.69
2.  Duke                      12-2     32.58
3.  Houston                   10-3     31.26
4.  Gonzaga                   12-4     29.37
5.  Illinois                  11-3     28.29
6.  Florida                   14-1     28.00
7.  Tennessee                 14-1     27.64

What a difference a 30-point blowout makes! Tennessee fell three spots to #7 and Florida moved up 3 to #6. Overall Tennessee's rating fell by about two full points while Florida gained 2. Considering that I only added this one result, it makes sense. Still, it's rare when one result puts the winner ahead of the loser when the loser was almost 4 points better previously.

Now, Success: 

Success is a wins-losses-only rating, meaning score margin doesn't matter. So whether Florida won by a point or by 30, the result here would be the same. It does matter that they played at home. Here's the Success ratings before the game:

#   Team                     record    Rating
1.  Tennessee                 14-0     38.51
2.  Auburn                    13-1     31.30
3.  Kentucky                  12-2     21.29
4.  Mississippi St.           13-1     20.42
5.  Duke                      12-2     18.45
6.  Florida                   13-1     18.39

Tennessee was the clear #1 here at 14-0, with Auburn a solid 2nd place and everyone else including the Gators far behind. Florida's loss to Kentucky dropped them to #6 at 13-1. What does one home win do?

#   Team                     record    Rating
1.  Auburn                    13-1     31.09
2.  Tennessee                 14-1     29.26
3.  Florida                   14-1     28.43
4.  Kentucky                  12-2     23.53

Well, now Auburn's back at #1, best among the 1-loss teams in Success. Florida gains a lot of ground back—10 points worth—and Tennessee loses almost 10 points, but remains ahead of the Gators. The 30 points doesn't matter, and the home court is taken into account, so the result isn't seen as definitive just yet. In any event, the teams are very close. Note that Florida moves back ahead of Kentucky who just beat them a few days ago! This rating system doesn't know (or care) that Kentucky beat Florida by 6 and Florida beat Tennessee by 30.

Overall

This is the combination of the two ratings: it simply adds the scores together, accounting for both winning games and playing for style points. Prior to the game:

#   Team                     Record   Rating
1.  Tennessee                 14-0     68.21
2.  Auburn                    13-1     66.01
3.  Duke                      12-2     51.05
4.  Kentucky                  12-2     46.90
5.  Iowa St.                  12-1     44.72
6.  Florida                   13-1     44.39

Tennessee was barely ahead of Auburn as of Monday, the Vols having enough of a lead in Success to offset Auburn's lead in Strength. Florida was 9th in Strength and 6th in Success, good enough for 6th place overall.

#   Team                     Record   Rating
1.  Auburn                    13-1     65.79
2.  Tennessee                 14-1     56.91
3.  Florida                   14-1     56.43
4.  Duke                      12-2     50.87
5.  Kentucky                  12-2     49.26
6.  Iowa St.                  12-1     44.42

The teams are so close in Strength that it ends up being the larger difference in Success that gives Tennessee about a 1/2 point edge overall. In any case it's pretty much even after the 30-point blowout. Does that make sense? Why isn't Florida ahead? Well, what do you think the line will be when Tennessee gets a shot at revenge in February 1st?

Only Auburn passes Tennessee, while Florida moves past Iowa State, Kentucky, and Duke. This gives the SEC the top three spots in the country, and 4 of the top 5!

Note that this doesn't include any other games played since Sunday. When those are figured in, a lot could change (Auburn is playing Texas as I type this, while Duke has demolished Pitt, and Kentucky lost to Georgia. Iowa State leads Utah. I normally update twice a week until football season is over but I'll make an exception tomorrow morning, there's too much going on!

Addendum: Where does this game rank among the year's best performances?

Seems like it should be pretty close to the top:

1.  Kansas 99, @UCF 48
2.  Auburn 91, =Ohio St. 53
3.  Gonzaga 113, UMass Lowell 54
4.  Illinois 109, @Oregon 77
5.  Arkansas 109, Maryland Eastern Shore 35
6.  Alabama 110, UNC Asheville 54
7.  Florida 73, Tennessee 43

Florida's win is only #7. Auburn's win over Ohio State is only #2 after Kansas beat Central Florida by 51. Gonzaga's best win was over Baylor by 38 in the opener until they topped UMass-Lowell by 59. If we filter out the mega-blowouts and consider only power-conference games, Florida over Tennessee is 3rd after the big wins by Auburn and Illinois. Ignoring margin of victory, though, it's probably 2nd to Duke's win over Auburn. 

2024-2025 Week 9 Dance Chance: Illinois joins 1-seeds

Tennessee is now the only undefeated team in the nation but they're not the Dance Chance's overall 1-seed, in fact they slipped to #3 despite a very solid 24-point win over Arkansas. Auburn matched that with 16-point win over Missouri, and their 29-point win over Monmouth was much better than the Vols' 15-point win over Norfolk State. So the Tigers kept the top spot, and Duke pushed into #2, increasing their 1-seed odds by nearly 20% with an 89-62 road win vs. SMU (the Blue Devils also hold the only win over Auburn so far). Crashing the top seed line is Illinois, who beat Oregon and Washington on the road, the former win (109-77) much more impressive than the latter (81-77) but 2 road wins is 2 road wins, and the Illini jump from a 3-seed all the way to the top four.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
  1. Auburn                 SEC  13-1  28-3   30-1  >99.9   0.0  93.8   0.0    1    1 
  2. Duke                   ACC  12-2  28-3   29-2   99.9  +1.0  68.5 +19.0    1    1 
  3. Tennessee              SEC  14-0  27-4   30-1   99.6  +0.3  63.9  -4.4    1    1 
  4. Illinois               B10  11-3  24-7   26-5   97.0  +6.1  27.2 +11.7    1    3 
  5. Houston                B12  10-3  25-6   28-3   96.0  +1.2  15.4  -1.2    2    1 
  6. Alabama                SEC  12-2  22-9   25-6   95.3  +3.0  26.4  +3.1    2    2 
  7. Kentucky               SEC  12-2  23-8   25-6   95.1  +3.1  23.9  -0.1    2    2 
  8. Florida                SEC  13-1  24-7   26-5   93.8   0.0  20.2  -8.4    2    2 

Houston is pushed down to a 2-seed for now but they're in good shape after starting 2-0 in Big Twelve play including a 31-point win over BYU. The big game in the 2-line saw Kentucky hand Florida their first loss, 106-100, which left the Gators' Dance Chance odds untouched but their 1-seed odds took a hit. The Wildcats improved marginally, while Alabama remains ahead of both (which seems right considering the Tide have wins over both Houston and Illinois). Kentucky's win ruined the undefeated vs. undefeated matchup between Florida and Tennessee; now it's just a 1-seed vs. a 2-seed come Tuesday the 7th.

Three Big Ten teams below took a hit: UCLA's run-up was paused by a loss to Nebraska, and Maryland took a double hit, losing to both Washington and Oregon on their swing through the Pacific Northwest. As noted above, Oregon lost to Illinois by 32 which outweighed their 4-point win over the Terps. Bucking the trend was Michigan, who beat USC and, having shaken off all of last year's 8-24 stench, is 11-3 and is looking like a 3-seed. The Wolverines face UCLA on Tuesday.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 12. Michigan               B10  11-3  23-8   27-4   90.6  +8.5   8.3  +3.3    3    5 
 14. UCLA                   B10  11-3  22-9   25-6   86.3  -0.2   3.0  -4.4    4    4 
 17. Texas A&M              SEC  12-2  21-10  23-8   84.5 +11.2   5.1  +1.8    5    6 
 18. Maryland               B10  11-4  23-9   25-7   82.8  -5.1   1.9  -7.7    5    3 
 19. Oregon                 B10  13-2  23-8   23-8   82.3  -0.4   1.0  -2.9    5    4 
 21. Connecticut            BE   12-3  23-8   25-6   76.3  -6.8   0.2  -1.2    6    4 
 22. Arizona                B12   8-5  20-11  22-9   76.3  +9.3   0.8  +0.1    6    8 
 25. Wisconsin              B10  11-3  21-10  23-8   74.3 +12.9   0.6  +0.3    7    9 

Another winner in the Big Ten above was Wisconsin, who beat Iowa by 31 and Rutgers on the road adding 13% to their odds. Nearly matching that was Texas A&M who beat Texas 80-60; they play Oklahoma and Alabama this week. Arizona also improved their lot, beating TCU and Cincinnati in their first 4-game win streak of the season; projections call for the Wildcats to go somewhere between 14-6 and 16-4 in the Big Twelve. Connecticut edged DePaul and Providence last week but they sank a bit further as the last vestiges of last year's National Championship are removed from the system's predictions...

Three huge winners below: West Virginia upset Kansas—in Lawrence—62-61, which would be enough to pump up anyone's odds, and the Mountaineers followed it up with a 69-50 win over Oklahoma State, soaring 22.3% from the play-in line to a 7-seed (Kansas, for their part, rebounded by beating UCF by 51 points and improved their own outlook ultimately!) Vanderbilt is a stealth 13-1—have they not been on our radar?—and jump in from nowhere into an 8-seed after beating LSU 80-72. Ok, so they were on our radar as 2nd-team-out last week, but shedding last year's 9-23 season helped, too. As did beating New Orleans 100-56, nothing like a good beatdown to improve one's power rating! Also Nebraska: the Cornhuskers beat Southern by 34 and UCLA by 8, putting them firmly in the seedings. 

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 27. Ohio St.               B10   9-5  19-12  21-10  71.3  -7.3   0.5  -2.0    7    5 
 28. West Virginia          B12  11-2  21-10  21-10  70.9 +22.3   0.2  +0.1    7   11p
 30. Vanderbilt             SEC  13-1  20-11  19-12  67.4 +19.7   0.5  +0.4    8      
 32. Baylor                 B12   9-4  20-11  20-11  66.0  -4.1   0.4  -1.3    8    7 
 33. Nebraska               B10  12-2  20-11  18-13  65.4 +19.5   0.1  +0.1    9      
 35. St. John's             BE   12-3  22-9   25-6   63.9  -6.7  <0.1  -0.3    9    6 
 37. UC San Diego           BW   13-2  28-4   29-3   62.0 +13.3   0.0   0.0   10   12 
 38. Penn St.               B10  12-3  20-11  21-10  61.0  -9.2  <0.1  -1.2   10    7 

Other Big Ten teams weren't so lucky: Ohio State was tripped up at home by Michigan State 69-62, and Penn State fell at home to Indiana 77-71. In the Big Twelve Baylor was crushed by Iowa State 74-55 and the Big East's St. John's hit a roadblock at Creighton by a point and only beat Butler by 8 at home. But get this: UC San Diego, whom I've been talking about for weeks, made another leap from 12 to 10-seed after beating Fullerton State 90-51 on the road. The Tritons are looking legit at-large worthy in the Big West!

The Bubble: Ole Miss did their best to escape the bubble but the bubble caught them by the ankle, if we count 8 teams up; the Rebels beat Georgia and switched seeds with the Bulldogs. But Dayton and Cincinnati both fell from 8-seeds onto the bubble (what's in the water in Ohio?) with the Flyers losing to George Washington by 20 points and Cincy dropping games at Kansas State and to Arizona. Both were close (3 points, 5 points) but the Bearcats are off to an 0-2 start in conference.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 40. Mississippi            SEC  12-2  19-12  17-14  57.4  +7.9   0.2  -0.2   10   11p
 41. Dayton                 A10  11-4  23-8   25-6   55.9  -9.9   0.0   0.0   11    8 
 42. Cincinnati             B12  10-3  20-11  21-10  55.6 -12.1  <0.1  -0.7   11    8 
 43. Louisville             ACC  10-5  21-10  23-8   54.9 +13.8   0.0   0.0   11      
 44. Georgia                SEC  12-2  19-12  18-13  54.5  -2.6   0.2  -0.7   11p  10 
 45. North Carolina         ACC   9-6  20-12  21-11  53.6  -9.6   0.0   0.0   11p   9 
 46. SMU                    ACC  11-3  23-8   26-5   52.6  -4.1   0.0   0.0   12p  11 
 47. New Mexico             MWC  12-3  23-8   22-9   50.3  +5.8   0.0   0.0   12p     

How about them Cardinals? Two years removed from a 4-28 record and they just upset North Carolina, tumbling the Tar Heels to the play-in game while Louisville enters as an 11-seed. Another ACC team, SMU, lost big to Duke (89-62) and remained bubble-bound. If they all stay in, the ACC has six teams but the odds say the league ends up with 4 or 5. Finally, New Mexico pops back in after topping Nevada, and basically avoiding the upsets/big losses that plagued the teams that fell below the waterline...

Speaking of which: Oklahoma suffered their first loss and it was a doozy, 107-79 at Alabama. It puts the Sooners in 50/50 territory as far as the tournament is concerned, with our projections calling for 4 to 6 more wins all year and 11 to 13 losses. Another SEC newcomer, Texas, hit a rough patch at Texas A&M losing 80-60 and falling out from a 10-seed. BYU lost at Houston by 31 points but a win over Arizona State balanced that out; their Dance Chance rose +1.0% but the Cougars slipped off the play-in line. UC Irvine isn't the Big West favorite any more but they're keeping things close as 2nd team out right now at 13-2.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 48. Oklahoma               SEC  13-1  19-12  17-14  49.2  -2.8  <0.1   0.0        11 
 49. UC Irvine              BW   13-2  27-5   29-3   49.0  +3.7   0.0   0.0           
 50. BYU                    B12  10-3  19-12  19-12  48.8  +1.0  <0.1  -0.1        12p
 51. Texas                  SEC  11-3  18-13  16-15  48.5  -9.8  <0.1  -0.6        10 
 52. St. Bonaventure        A10  14-1  26-5   28-3   44.3 +10.7   0.0   0.0           
 53. Saint Mary's           WCC  13-3  22-9   23-8   43.8  +3.8   0.0   0.0           
 54. Washington St.         WCC  13-3  22-9   22-9   42.0  +2.1   0.0   0.0           
 55. VCU                    A10  11-4  23-8   26-5   39.8  -0.5   0.0   0.0           

The Atlantic 10's St. Bonaventure has been hiding from us, too; the Bonnies are 14-1! and up over 10% after upsetting VCU, who remains in the Second Four Out. Right now only Gonzaga represents the West Coast Conference but St. Mary's and Washington State are within striking distance, both 13-3 and projected to be 22-9 before the WCC tourney.

More teams of note below: Creighton lost to Marquette but it was a road game, and beating St. John's helped them more than the loss hurt it seems. But the bigger Big East winner was Villanova who jumped 16.4% mainly from beating DePaul 100-56. Indiana kept themselves in the hunt by winning two Big Ten games and have won 8 of their last 9.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 57. Creighton              BE    9-6  18-13  18-13  36.7  +9.7   0.0   0.0           
 58. Indiana                B10  12-3  17-14  14-17  36.6  +8.7   0.0   0.0           
 59. Iowa                   B10  10-4  17-14  16-15  36.4 -11.3   0.0   0.0        12p
 60. Drake                  MVC  12-2  24-6   26-4   34.5 -17.8   0.0   0.0   12   11 
 61. Villanova              BE   10-5  18-13  19-12  33.9 +16.4   0.0   0.0           
 76. Lipscomb               ASun 10-5  24-7   26-5   22.6 +11.9   0.0   0.0   13   13 
 77. Oregon St.             WCC  12-4  21-10  22-9   22.5 -18.5   0.0   0.0         

The state of Iowa took a hit as both Iowa and Drake lost ground big time. The Hawkeyes had just clawed themselves into a perch as Last Team In for the past two weeks but were knocked off by the 116-85 loss at Wisconsin. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, lost their 2nd straight game after 12 wins; they're still the Missouri Valley favorites but their at-large odds fall from 50/50 to 1 in 3. Lipscomb still has meager at-large odds but they basically doubled them last week with two road wins, including a 32-point win over North Florida. Oregon State's odds in the WCC sank after losing 82-61 to Loyola Marymount.

Speaking of sinking, Butler is the definition of a sinking team as they've now lost seven in a row. This is the only team to beat Mississippi State! Their schedule has been brutal over that stretch, but at 7-8 their odds are dwindling. Utah took an even worse hit—the worst in the Dance Chance!—down 24.3% to single digits after losing to Baylor by 25 and Texas Tech by 28. Colorado also lost twice, including an 81-61 pounding at ASU. And North Dakota State, who just nabbed the status of front-runner in the Summit, gave it up with two home losses in that conference. (But they just won the FCS football championship, so I'm sure the school is ok with that trade-off).

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev  
 85. Butler                 BE    7-8  15-16  14-17  11.0 -10.7   0.0   0.0           
 86. Utah                   B12   8-5  15-16  13-18   9.5 -24.3   0.0   0.0           
100. Colorado               B12   9-4  14-17  11-20   7.7 -11.1   0.0   0.0           
103. North Dakota St.       Sum  11-6  22-9   23-8    7.1 -11.6   0.0   0.0        13 
116. DePaul                 BE    9-6  15-16  12-19   4.7  -9.2   0.0   0.0           
119. Florida Atlantic       Amer  8-7  18-13  19-12   4.4 -12.9   0.0   0.0           
122. N.C. State             ACC   8-6  15-16  14-17   3.4  -9.0   0.0   0.0           
138. Louisiana Tech         CUSA 11-4  19-12  19-12   1.5 -11.8   0.0   0.0           

DePaul lost to UConn and Villanova as expected, but the latter was a 100-56 beatdown that wasn't expected. Florida Atlantic has been fading from my pre-season (basically, last-season) ratings all year and a 90-62 loss to Memphis was the last straw as they drop about 75% of their remaining at-large hope. NC State also had a remarkable season—last year. This year's squad just lost to middle-of-the-pack ACC teams Virginia and Wake Forest. Finally, Louisiana Tech dumps almost 90% of their remaining odds, from 13.3% to 1.5%. The reason? Back to back losses to UTEP by 10 and New Mexico State by 30. Ouch. At least they beat "Rust" 108-60 prior to that. I'm not kidding, Rust College, founded in 1866, one of the oldest HBCU's still in existence. Learn something new every day.