SportsRatings: College Basketball

2025's bubble was very resilient

This year's bubble was very resilient. Even by Thursday's games, the SEC, ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, and Big East were set to crown a champ that was already in the tournament field. In other words, there would be no shrinkage of the bubble due to the Major conferences. All of the Cinderellas had been snuffed out.

And by Friday's games, there were only three potential spots to be lost to upsets, with the odds favoring around 1 spot lost. Memphis in the American, VCU in the Atlantic 10, and possibly UC San Diego in the Big West were the only teams that could lose and shrink the bubble.

                                        At-lg   %Change          Total      Seed
Rank Team                 Conf   Rec    %Odds  -1dy  -5dy 1seed  %Odds  Now -1dy -5dy
 34. Memphis               Amer  27-5    81.5  -0.9  -0.3   0.0   91.4   9    8    9 
 35. New Mexico            MWC   26-7    76.8  -4.6  -1.9   0.0   76.8   9    9    9 
 36. Connecticut           BE    23-10   74.4  -3.9  +3.0   0.0   74.4   9    9    9 
 37. Oklahoma              SEC   20-13   73.4  +3.5  +8.2   0.0   73.4  10   10   10 
 38. Creighton             BE    24-9    73.2  +4.2  +3.3   0.0   81.3  10   10   10 
 39. Utah St.              MWC   26-7    66.5  -4.5  -3.4   0.0   66.5  10   10   10 
 40. UC San Diego          BW    29-4    64.3  +2.5  -0.8   0.0   86.6  10   10   10 
 41. Xavier                BE    21-11   60.3  +1.7  +1.1   0.0   60.3  11   11   11p
 42. San Diego St.         MWC   21-9    59.1  +4.8  -1.7   0.0   59.1  11p  11p  11 
 43. VCU                   A10   26-6    56.0  +3.7  +4.1   0.0   80.9  11   11   11 
 44. Boise St.             MWC   24-9    55.0  +3.0  +6.9   0.0   78.9  11   12p  12p
 45. Indiana               B10   19-13   54.9  +0.8  -8.7   0.0   54.9  11p  11p  11 
 46. Colorado St.          MWC   24-9    50.6  +7.2  +6.4   0.0   73.7  12p          
 47. Texas                 SEC   19-15   50.5 -10.5 +16.2   0.0   50.5  12p  11      
 48. North Carolina        ACC   22-13   48.2  -2.7  +2.9   0.0   48.2       12p     
 49. Baylor                B12   19-14   47.0  -2.8  -0.1   0.0   47.0            12p
 50. West Virginia         B12   19-13   45.7  -1.6  -9.5   0.0   45.7            11p
 51. Drake                 MVC   30-3    42.5  -1.6  -6.3   0.0  100.0  12   12   12 
 52. UC Irvine             BW    28-5    37.7  -0.8  -4.4   0.0   61.1               
 53. Ohio St.              B10   17-15   32.1  -1.3 -13.6   0.0   32.1               
 54. San Francisco         WCC   24-9    28.2  +0.7  -0.9   0.0   28.2               
 55. Santa Clara           WCC   20-12   23.0  -2.6  +2.6   0.0   23.0            

Even among those, there's a question whether the bubble would really shrink in a few cases. UC San Diego would likely stay in our seedings, but most Bracketologists have the Tritons a 12-seed, so they won't make the field if they lose to UC Irvine. And VCU is on the bubble themselves; would the Rams survive a loss?

Only a Memphis loss clearly shrinks the bubble. 

In our projection, Texas is the team rooting hardest for Memphis to win and keep the bubble's waterline where it is.

If Memphis does lose, the Longhorns (and others who are worrying) can hope for a Boise State win, which should knock Colorado State down a few spots. Right now the Rams are Last Team In if Memphis loses, and presumably wouldn't survive a loss. Boise State may or may not survive a loss. Most likely, the Selection Committee keeps the winner and dumps the loser, especially if they're taking three other MWC teams. Not that San Diego State won't be sweating a bit on Sunday...!

Thursday bubble match-ups: San Diego State vs. Boise State in key game; Indiana, North Carolina on the line

We're getting down to the nitty gritty, the big games are starting to ramp up. Let's look at the bubble as of yesterday and see which big games are on the calendar today.

Update: So far, the big upsets are coming close but not happening. Cases in point:

Texas Tech 76, Baylor 74

Louisville 75, Stanford 73

Marquette 89, Xavier 87 

First the hopefuls below the bubble. This is our First Four Out and Next Four Out, and those still playing need wins the most:

                                        At-lg   %Change          Total      Seed
Rank Team                 Conf   Rec    %Odds  -1dy  -3dy 1seed  %Odds  Now -1dy -3dy
 48. Texas                 SEC   18-14   46.1 +14.8 +11.8   0.0   46.4               
 49. Drake                 MVC   30-3    44.7  -2.3  -4.1   0.0  100.0  12   12   12 
 50. North Carolina        ACC   21-12   43.5  +1.2  -1.8   0.0   48.4               
 51. Colorado St.          MWC   22-9    43.0  +0.8  -1.2   0.0   47.6               
 52. UC Irvine             BW    27-5    36.4  -0.2  -5.7   0.0   53.2               
 53. Ohio St.              B10   17-15   32.7 -10.0 -13.0   0.0   32.7               
 54. San Francisco         WCC   24-9    25.1  -1.3  -4.0   0.0   25.1               
 55. Santa Clara           WCC   20-12   23.2  -0.2  +2.8   0.0   23.2               

Texas just improved their lot by...a lot in beating Vanderbilt on Wednesday, making the Longhorns First Team Out—as long as the bubble holds where it is. Texas is playing Texas A&M as we speak and they probably need that win to get to the right side of the cut-line. Update: Texas won in double overtime, meaning there might be 14 SEC teams in the tournament.

North Carolina is another team on the verge of a bid and playing as we speak. Beating Notre Dame helped a bit, but Texas clearly passed them in our book. The Tar Heels have another winnable game against Wake Forest, who is far below the bubble right now at 17%. The Deacs would still have work to do with a win—they'd probably have to beat Duke—but for UNC, a win probably gets them over the hump assuming a loss to the Blue Devils follows. Update: North Carolina beat Wake Forest 68-59. A loss from Texas would have really helped them! Things are pretty much going their way otherwise.

Colorado State got the support of Joe Lunardi but they need more than that. They play Nevada late tonight and need a win there, and probably another one after that to be over the top.

That's it for the wanna-bes: Drake is already in; UC Irvine doesn't play until tomorrow; Ohio State is stuck at 17-15 after losing to Iowa last night; and San Francisco and Santa Clara both lost in the West Coast Conference tournament.

Now the borderline teams. They don't necessarily need a win, but they can't afford a loss, either.

                                        At-lg   %Change          Total      Seed
Rank Team                 Conf   Rec    %Odds  -1dy  -3dy 1seed  %Odds  Now -1dy -3dy
 42. San Diego St.         MWC   21-8    59.5  -1.3  -1.3   0.0   64.7  11   11   11 
 43. Xavier                BE    21-10   58.0  -1.2  -1.2   0.0   61.3  11p  11p  11p
 44. Baylor                B12   19-13   56.4  +9.3  +9.3   0.0   58.5  11p  12p  12p
 45. VCU                   A10   25-6    50.6  +0.7  -1.3   0.0   67.1  11   11   11 
 46. West Virginia         B12   19-13   46.9  -7.3  -8.3   0.0   46.9  12p  11p  11p
 47. Boise St.             MWC   22-9    46.9  -0.2  -1.2   0.0   52.2  12p  12p  12p

The biggest bubble game on Thursday is between two teams at this level: San Diego State vs. Boise State. The Aztecs have been "assumed" to be in all year, but when you get right down to it they aren't safe. Boise State has been just outside everyone else's seedings for a while, and they're our Last Team In at the moment. And that's with a bubble that doesn't shrink. This is a really key game for both teams, tipping off late in the afternoon. Update: Boise State upset the Aztecs 62-52, leaving both teams in limbo. San Diego State is fortunate that the teams below them, Xavier and Baylor, both lost and West Virginia is out of the ACC tournament and won't be adding to their résumé. Boise State will play New Mexico next.

Baylor is holding on as a play-in team after beating Kansas State yesterday but probably needs to beat Texas Tech to feel safe. Xavier is in the same situation regarding their game vs. Marquette early in the afternoon. Update: Xavier lost 89-87 and should survive, but if the bubble shrinks they're in trouble.

VCU doesn't play until tomorrow and West Virginia, having lost to Colorado, hangs on as a 12-seed providing things don't shift too much.

Safe or not? Teams on the bubble borderline

                                        At-lg   %Change          Total      Seed
Rank Team                 Conf   Rec    %Odds  -1dy  -3dy 1seed  %Odds  Now -1dy -3dy
 35. New Mexico            MWC   25-6    77.4  -0.3  -1.3   0.0   84.4   9    9    9 
 36. Oklahoma              SEC   20-12   74.5 +10.3  +9.3   0.0   74.5   9   10   10 
 37. Connecticut           BE    22-9    70.2  -0.2  -1.2   0.0   74.1  10    9    9 
 38. Creighton             BE    22-9    66.9  -2.0  -3.0   0.0   70.0  10   10   10 
 39. Utah St.              MWC   25-6    66.1  -2.8  -3.8   0.0   72.6  10   10   10 
 40. UC San Diego          BW    28-4    62.9  -0.5  -2.2   0.0   79.6  10   10   10 
 41. Indiana               B10   19-12   61.6  -1.0  -2.0   0.0   62.2  11   11   11

Indiana is the key team here. Having beaten Ohio State yesterday the Hoosiers faced Oregon this afternoon and lost, 72-59. It probably leaves them a play-in team but safe unless the bubble shrinks too much.

New Mexico is probably in good shape no matter what happens, but what about Utah State? Both play today (vs. San Jose State and vs. UNLV), with the Aggies having to play a road game in Las Vegas. Update: New Mexico beat SJSU;

Oklahoma probably sealed their bid with yesterday's win over Georgia, but beating Kentucky tonight couldn't hurt.

UConn and Creighton are surprisingly low on the Dance Chance's radar. The Huskies play Villanova, who is a bit below the bubble at 13%, while the Jays go up against DePaul who is at 0% for an at-large. 

UC San Diego is a 10-seed right now per the Dance Chance, higher than anyone at the Bracket Matrix has them. So they might even need to win the Big West tournament.

1 Week before Selection Sunday 2025 State of the Bubble

Ok, first let's decide what the Bubble is. Let's say it's the 8 teams above or below the cutline. So where is the cutline? Right now we project it's 48 teams deep, with Baylor the last team in. But given the odds for conference tournament upsets and Bubble shrinkage, it will probably be 45 teams deep. At eight teams above that cutline, Utah State would be included, and since their Dance Chance odds are almost exactly the same, Creighton would get caught in this definition, too. But we're going to say that for now, both are pretty safe. The tournament "needs" more Big East and Mountain West teams, and both teams are this close to 70%.

                                        At-lg   %Change          Total      Seed
Rank Team                 Conf   Rec    %Odds  -3dy  -1wk 1seed  %Odds  Now -3dy -1wk
 37. Creighton             BE    22-9    69.9  +4.1  +2.6   0.0   71.8  10   10   10 
 38. Utah St.              MWC   25-6    69.9  +3.4  -0.2   0.0   73.9  10   10    9 

One conference tournament win for each should seal the deal. Both play on Thursday: Creighton has the Georgetown/DePaul winner, and Utah State gets either UNLV or Air Force. In case of an upset, check back in a few days and they'll be on the bubble.

So next to consider are Oklahoma and UC San Diego, which are above the current Bubble but probably not the projected Bubble. The Sooners finished a respectable 19-12, just 6-12 in conference but just look at their schedule before getting judgy. They beat Missouri and Texas last week to improve 28%, jumping from below the waterline to a 10-seed. The bad news: their very first conference game is Georgia on Wednesday, and Kentucky if they win that. Ugh. The Tritons have the inverse problem: too easy of a schedule. The Bracket Matrix hasn't pulled UC San Diego above the 12-seed line, meaning that if they lose in the Big West tournament, most people think they won't get an at-large. They don't play until Friday, and only need two games to win the auto-bid, but nothing is certain if they lose.

                                        At-lg   %Change          Total      Seed
Rank Team                 Conf   Rec    %Odds  -3dy  -1wk 1seed  %Odds  Now -3dy -1wk
 39. Oklahoma              SEC   19-12   65.2 +14.2 +28.2   0.0   65.5  10   11p     
 40. UC San Diego          BW    28-4    65.1  +2.5  -3.0   0.0   75.5  10   10   10 
 41. Indiana               B10   19-12   63.6 +14.6  +5.8   0.0   64.2  11        11 
 42. San Diego St.         MWC   21-8    60.8  +7.3  -1.3   0.0   64.3  11   11   10 
 43. Xavier                BE    21-10   59.2  +3.7  +3.5   0.0   61.3  11p  10   11 
 44. West Virginia         B12   19-12   55.2  +6.0  +6.0   0.0   56.1  11p  12p  12p
 45. VCU                   A10   25-6    51.9  -3.2  -6.3   0.0   63.7  11   11   11 

Indiana dipped out of our seedings after losing to Oregon but beating Ohio State put them back in. They play Oregon again in their first game on Thursday, with Michigan State to follow. They probably need a win to secure themselves. San Diego State is blessed with a strong "name" and being only the third MWC team in the mix, but if they lose to Boise State on Thursday the Broncos might replace them. Xavier plays Marquette on Thursday and might be sweating if they lose that one, while a win really helps. West Virginia gets either TCU or Colorado and a lost would put the Mountaineers in limbo for sure, bid-wise. A win helps but they face Houston after that. And VCU might very well be the Last Team in right now, they're in the Last Four for sure. The Rams have a double-bye and face either St. Bonaventure or Duquesne. Two wins probably makes them safe, but three removes all doubt!

The three teams below are just above the current waterline, so they represent the Last Few In or the First Few Out, depending on how much the cutline moves up. Drake doesn't have to worry about any of this as they just beat Bradley to win the Missouri Valley's automatic bid. At 30-3 they earned it, but being 29-4 would have make them a coin flip for an at-large. Baylor did what just about any bubble team would last week: beat TCU but lost to Houston. They get Kansas State or Arizona State first and need a win, mostly because a loss would hurt so much! Depending on what the cut-line does, that might not be enough; they face Texas Tech after.

                                        At-lg   %Change          Total      Seed
Rank Team                 Conf   Rec    %Odds  -3dy  -1wk 1seed  %Odds  Now -3dy -1wk
 46. Drake                 MVC   30-3    48.8  +7.8  +1.2   0.0  100.0  12   12   12 
 47. Boise St.             MWC   22-9    48.1  -1.7  -5.0   0.0   51.6  12p  12p  11p
 48. Baylor                B12   18-13   47.1  -5.9  -2.7   0.0   48.5  12p  11   12p

As mentioned, Boise State takes on San Diego State first in the MWC tournament. The Broncos lost at home to Colorado State or they'd be in even better position, but beating the Aztecs would give them breathing room.

Speaking of Colorado State, the Rams have won seven in a row now but are barely mentioned in the Bracket Matrix (which to be fair, only lists teams that are "in" a bracket, so I wouldn't be mentioning them either). Their first game will be Nevada or Fresno State, since they got the 2-seed in the tournament. The high-profile bubble teams here are Ohio State and North Carolina. The Buckeyes lost a pivotal Bubble matchup at Indiana, 66-60 and fell off their play-in team status to the First Team Out. The Tar Heels failed to beat Duke which was so expected that they moved 0.0% afterwards. Ohio State plays Iowa first and Illinois after, which isn't a bad draw; it gives them a good chance to lift themselves up with a few wins. North Carolina is only ACC team #4, which gives them a boost, and their draw is decent, too: Notre Dame or Pitt, followed by Wake Forest.

                                        At-lg   %Change          Total      Seed
Rank Team                 Conf   Rec    %Odds  -3dy  -1wk 1seed  %Odds  Now -3dy -1wk
 49. Ohio St.              B10   17-14   45.7  -6.8  -7.8   0.0   47.0       11p  11p
 50. North Carolina        ACC   20-12   45.3   0.0  +3.1   0.0   48.1               
 51. Colorado St.          MWC   22-9    44.2  +6.4  +2.8   0.0   47.2               
 52. UC Irvine             BW    27-5    42.1  +9.8  +3.6   0.0   52.4               
 53. Texas                 SEC   17-14   34.3 -11.2  +0.8   0.0   35.1               
 54. San Francisco         WCC   24-8    29.1   0.0  -4.0   0.0   37.3               
 55. Santa Clara           WCC   20-12   20.4 -12.4 -18.5   0.0   20.4               
 56. Dayton                A10   22-9    19.1  +3.4  +3.2   0.0   29.9

UC Irvine has an uphill battle to an at-large given that even UC San Diego isn't on most brackets unless they auto-bid. So let's skip to Texas, who shot themselves in the foot by losing to Oklahoma at home Saturday. On Wednesday they face Vanderbilt, with Texas A&M looming. One win probably won't do it, so they Longhorns need a big one. The last three teams are already pretty big longshots, and indeed, if the cut-line moves as expected they aren't even Bubble teams. San Francisco is still alive in the West Coast tournament and the question is: if they beat Gonzaga but lose to St. Mary's in the final, do they have a chance? Santa Clara can't ask that question as they are out of the WCC tournament but still show a generous 20% at-large chance. Dayton probably needs to win the Atlantic 10 tournament since they have a double-bye and going 2-1 isn't going to cut it.

Conference championship week 2025: Dance Chance snubbing Houston?

It took a while, but the rest of the Bracketology world seems to have come around to embracing our conclusion that Florida is a solid 1-seed. Almost every Bracket Matrix participant has the Gators a top seed now, along with Auburn and Duke. Florida beat Alabama on the road and Ole Miss at home to finish 27-4, which matched Auburn after the Tigers dropped their last two games to Texas A&M and Alabama. Despite similar records and the fact that Florida beat Auburn (this also applies to Duke!) the Tigers are the overall 1-seed due to outrageous number of big wins. They're only 1-3 against the other 1-seeds but have 16 Quad-1 wins. The Tide will have to console themselves with being a hair ahead of Tennessee in the 1-seed race.

                                        At-lg   %Change          Total      Seed
Rank Team                 Conf   Rec    %Odds  -3dy  -1wk 1seed  %Odds  Now -3dy -1wk
  1. Auburn                SEC   27-4   100.0   0.0   0.0  99.0  100.0   1    1    1 
  2. Florida               SEC   27-4   100.0   0.0   0.0  91.4  100.0   1    1    1 
  3. Duke                  ACC   28-3   100.0   0.0   0.0  88.4  100.0   1    1    1 
  4. Alabama               SEC   24-7   100.0   0.0   0.0  52.2  100.0   1    2    2 
  5. Tennessee             SEC   25-6   100.0   0.0   0.0  48.2  100.0   2    1    1 
  6. Houston               B12   27-4   100.0   0.0   0.0  18.0  100.0   2    2    2 
  7. Kentucky              SEC   21-10  100.0   0.0  +0.1   1.4  100.0   2    2    2 
  8. Michigan St.          B10   26-5   100.0   0.0  +0.1   1.6  100.0   2    2    2 

The Bracket Matrix didn't come around to our view of Houston, which we therefore assume is going to be wrong. It makes sense as the Cougars are #3 in the NET rankings despite being #10 in our Success rankings, which is what is holding them back in the Dance Chance. Winning the Big Twelve tournament might get them into our 1-line, but might not be enough to pass two SEC teams depending on what happens in that league's tournament. It looks pretty certain that we are going to show three SEC teams as 1-seeds come Selection Sunday. The Cougars' losses to Auburn and Alabama in November don't help their cause either. Another SEC team, Kentucky, is currently a 2-seed rather than the consensus St. John's. Algorithms don't care as much as humans do when "there are too many {conferenceName} teams in the top ten!"

                                        At-lg   %Change          Total      Seed
Rank Team                 Conf   Rec    %Odds  -3dy  -1wk 1seed  %Odds  Now -3dy -1wk
 24. Georgia               SEC   20-11   94.0  +7.9 +15.1   0.0   94.1   6    8    8 
 33. Arkansas              SEC   19-12   83.3 +11.8 +24.7   0.0   83.5   9    9   10 

The SEC also has two of the top upward-moving teams in the Dance Chance. Both Georgia and Arkansas pretty much sealed the deal for themselves over the last week or so. The Bulldogs won 4 in a row at the end, with South Carolina and Vanderbilt in the last seven days. Arkansas also topped Vandy as well as Mississippi State, part of a 25% jump that puts them in pretty safe territory.

I'm going to do a separate Bubble analysis, so I'll skip a large chunk of the projection here...

Below are teams that fell off the bubble in the last regular-season week. Most have a chance to redeem themselves and at the very least improve their at-large odds, but Nebraska is not one of those as the Cornhuskers failed to even qualify for the Big Ten tournament (which oddly takes 15, not 16 of the 18 conference teams). As we posited several days ago, they are left to be judged as a 17-14 team, full stop. A week ago at 17-12 it looked pretty certain they'd win at least one of two remaining games, but they lost to Ohio State in double overtime on the road, and to Iowa at home, 83-68. As bad as that was, Cincinnati's odds dropped even worse, from about 40% to 5.6% with losses to Kansas State and cellar-dwelling Oklahoma State. The only good thing is they have the conference tournament in their future, where their first opponent is again Oklahoma State.

                                        At-lg   %Change          Total      Seed
Rank Team                 Conf   Rec    %Odds  -3dy  -1wk 1seed  %Odds  Now -3dy -1wk
 58. Nebraska              B10   17-14   18.0 -14.2 -20.1   0.0   18.0               
 59. SMU                   ACC   22-9    17.7  -9.4 -14.6   0.0   20.4               
 63. Cincinnati            B12   17-14    5.6 -15.8 -33.9   0.0    7.2               
 64. Villanova             BE    18-13    4.9  -4.5 -15.0   0.0    8.7               
 65. North Texas           Amer  23-7     3.7 -11.1 -14.6   0.0   16.7               
 66. Northwestern          B10   16-15    3.1  -1.8 -11.9   0.0    4.4               

SMU fell off the bubble due to their loss to Florida State after beating Syracuse by 2 points; as the 6-seed, they'll rematch the winner of those teams in the 2nd round of the ACC tournament, then they'd get a shot at Clemson. That would be enough to put them back on the bubble, and with only three (3) ACC teams in the Dance right now, that might be enough (though North Carolina and Wake Forest are in line ahead of them). Villanova played only once last week, losing to Georgetown and that was enough to crush their odds by 75%, from 20% to 5%. They play Seton Hall in the first round with UConn waiting. 

North Texas was trying to build a case for an at-large from the American Athletic, but losing to Temple set them back quite a bit more than their 7-game win streak did to promote them. Now under 5% odds, the Mean Green might rematch Temple in their first conference tournament game, then probably face UAB before Memphis. It seems that winning the AAC title is their only path.

And Northwestern finished above .500 but just barely, hence their tiny odds down 11.9% from last week when they at least had "hope points" based on the chance of beating either UCLA or Maryland. Neither happened. The Dance Chance is now a "snapshot" rather than a projection, so future hope doesn't count for anything in the odds. The Wildcats did qualify for the Big Ten tournament so all hope is not yet lost. They have a very winnable game first (Minnesota), then they run into Wisconsin, UCLA, and probably Michigan State before the finals. So their odds could rocket upward and they'd be 20-15 by then. It's not likely but it's a better scenario than confronts Nebraska right now.