SportsRatings: College Basketball

Biggest Bubble games left: Oklahoma vs. Texas, Ohio State-Indiana, Boise State-Colorado State

Half a week left before the Major conference tournaments start. Let's look at the biggest bubble games left in the next few days ending Sunday, March 9, 2025:

Pure bubble games
These are games between two teams, both on the bubble. High importance, but how much can be written in stone by the results?

Oklahoma (51.0%) at Texas (45.5%) - Saturday
Ohio State (52.5%) at Indiana (49.0%) - Saturday
Colorado State (37.8%) at Boise State (49.8%) - Friday

                                    Record     At-lg   Dance Chance     Total
Rank Team                 Conf   Curr   Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  %Odds seed prev
 41. VCU                   A10   25-5   26-5    55.1  -3.1   0.0   0.0   65.0  11   11 
 42. San Diego St.         MWC   20-8   21-8    53.5  -8.6   0.0   0.0   56.8  11   10 
 43. Baylor                B12   18-12  18-13   53.0  +3.2   0.0   0.0   54.0  11   12p
 44. Ohio St.              B10   17-13  18-13   52.5  -1.0   0.0   0.0   53.4  11p  11p
 45. Oklahoma              SEC   18-12  18-13   51.0 +14.0   0.0   0.0   51.4  11p     
 46. Boise St.             MWC   22-8   23-8    49.8  -3.3   0.0   0.0   52.6  12p  11p
 47. West Virginia         B12   18-12  19-12   49.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   50.0  12p  12p
 48. Indiana               B10   18-12  18-13   49.0  -8.8   0.0   0.0   49.6       11 
 49. Texas                 SEC   17-13  18-13   45.5 +12.0   0.0   0.0   46.1          
 50. North Carolina        ACC   20-11  20-12   45.3  +3.1   0.0   0.0   47.6          
 51. Drake                 MVC   27-3   27-3    41.0  -6.6   0.0   0.0   54.0  12   12 
 52. Colorado St.          MWC   21-9   21-10   37.8  -3.6   0.0   0.0   40.5          
 53. Santa Clara           WCC   20-11  20-11   32.8  -6.1   0.0   0.0   38.0          
 54. UC Irvine             BW    25-5   27-5    32.3  -6.2   0.0   0.0   41.5          
 55. Nebraska              B10   17-13  18-13   32.2  -5.9   0.0   0.0   32.9          

• Oklahoma at Texas: The Sooners just got back on the board as a play-in team following their 96-84 upset win over Missouri. The Longhorns got a huge win, too, beating Mississippi State on the road in overtime; that put them in striking distance in the First Four Out. Now one of them is going to get a further boost while the loser will languish below the waterline heading into the SEC tournament. Odds slightly favor Texas as the home team. The upshot is that the winner might only have to win one game in the SEC tournament while the loser will need two wins. That's a big difference in the SEC tournament, as the first round games are very winnable, the 2nd round not so much.
• Ohio State at Indiana:  Ohio State is one spot above the "projected" waterline after the bubble shrinks, and Indiana is Last Team Out by the "current" waterline. The Buckeyes beat Nebraska in double overtime to hold onto their 11-seed, while Indiana lost at Oregon to lose theirs. We have the Buckeyes a super-tight favorite. An Indiana win would put both teams in limbo going into the Big Ten tournament, where they will be the 9- and 10-seeds depending on who wins. The 9-seed gets a bye, the 10-seed does not and will play one of six teams, all beatable, then face Illinois or Oregon in an attempt to get a 2nd win they'll most likely need. The winner (the 9-seed) will face either Illinois or Oregon right away, so is that any better? The only difference is, the winner here probably has only one loss from this date forward, the loser has two. Other than that, not much will be cleared up.
• Colorado State at Boise State: The Rams are in the Dance Chance's Second Four Out but don't have much traction elsewhere. So beating Boise State—who is Last Team Out in the Bracket Matrix, and in the Dance Chance is Last Four In (current waterline), or First Four Out (by the projected shrunken bubble waterline)—would help put their name in the hat. Maybe. Both teams are on win streaks and need this one for another quality win. Boise is a pretty solid favorite. 

Power games
These could launch a team upward quite a bit, but the odds are not good.

Baylor (53.0%) vs. Houston (100%) - Saturday
North Carolina (45.3%) vs. Duke (100%) - Saturday

• Baylor vs. Houston: Baylor beat TCU on Tuesday and isn't in bad shape, with most putting them at a 10-seed. Still, few have the Bears as a lock, but that could change if they beat Houston on Saturday in Waco. The Bears lack really big wins (though they have six Quad-1 wins, Kansas is the only win that stands out as major). For Houston this is about getting a 1-seed; you could say they're on the 1-seed bubble and this is a pretty important game in that regard. A Baylor loss makes the Big Twelve tournament pretty important for the Bears, but they'll be the 7- or 8-seed with a bye, and face a team they should be able to beat to pick up a win.
• North Carolina vs. Duke: Duke's not on the 1-seed bubble, instead they're pretty much a lock in that regard. But North Carolina still needs help getting above the waterline. Five wins in a row have the Tar Heels in the First Four Out, assuming the bubble doesn't shrink much. A win over Duke would put them firmly above going into the ACC tournament. A loss means they'll have work to do in the conference tournament; UNC will probably be the 5-seed, which is better than getting the 4-seed since they'll have a winnable game early instead of a double bye. But beating Duke would trump getting a minor ACC tournament win.

Bubble teams vs. Long Shots
Teams on the bubble face teams with little hope

VCU (55.1%) vs. Dayton (15.7%) - Friday
West Virginia (49.2%) vs. UCF (0.9%) - Saturday
Nebraska (32.2%) vs. Iowa (0.6%) - Sunday

• VCU vs. Dayton: VCU is in the Last Eight In at best, or the Last Four In by the projected (smaller) bubble. Either way, they're expected to win the Atlantic 10 tournament and have already sewed up the top seed. Beating Dayton would give them some more leeway in case they falter in the tourney. The Flyers are much further below the bubble at 15.7% chance for an at-large berth, and much of that hope rests on beating Dayton on the road. That alone won't get them into the prime consideration region, but it would set them up for a tournament run that could. Thing is, it would also likely give them a double-bye that would only allow for two more wins if they lose in the final, and their at-large numbers might not add up. The Flyers might need to win the conference tournament, but on the other hand, the Rams might be in that same boat.
• West Virginia vs. UCF: The Mountaineers beat Utah Tuesday night, a result that kept them exactly on the waterline as Last Team In, a 12-seed play-in team, so they need every win they can get. UCF is next up, and the Knights are at just under 1.0% at-large odds following a win over Oklahoma State. Upsetting the Mountaineers won't change that very much, but it would keep hope alive that a 4-1 run in the Big Twelve tournament might make the Selection Committee consider a 21-15 team on a hot streak. West Virginia is on the boundary of getting a first-round bye in the tournament, but they might not want it as they could get two wins instead of one as a 9-seed rather than the 8-seed.
• Nebraska vs. Iowa: The Cornhuskers have lost four in a row and their tourney odds have dwindled in lock-step. Now at just 32.2% after their double-overtime loss to Ohio State, they need to beat Iowa not just to improve those odds, but to make sure they even get into the Big Ten tournament. In other words, lose to Iowa and Nebraska is judged as a 17-14 team with a 7-13 Big Ten record. Win and they are an 11- or 12-seed in the conference tournament and can get another win, making them 19-14 or better. Big difference! For 15-14 Iowa, beating the Cornhuskers wouldn't help their 0.6% Dance Chance odds much nor insure a place in the Big Ten tournament—unless they also beat Michigan State Thursday night, in which case suddenly the 17-14 Hawks have new life, and can fantasize about a 4-1 run that gets them an at-large bid. But if you're hoping against that much hope, why not just win the whole tournament and get an auto-bid?

 

2024-2025 Two weeks before Selection Sunday: Georgia, Indiana In; Nebraska, Texas out

Two weeks before Selection Sunday and here's our top eight teams:

Auburn is all but a lock not just for a 1-seed but the overall top seed. Their 30-point win over Ole Miss and 94-78 road win over Kentucky would be many teams' best wins of the season, and they did it just last week. Florida, who most people see as a 2-seed but is neck and neck here with Duke for the 2nd 1-seed spot. The Gators lost to Georgia but beat Texas A&M 89-70 on Saturday. They'll need a strong showing in the SEC tournament to get a 1-seed given the competition inside and outside the league. The Blue Devils probably have a 1-seed sewed up in everyone's mind, and 37- and 35- point beatdowns of Miami and Florida State didn't hurt. Finally, Tennessee beat Alabama on Saturday 79-76 on a game-winning three to give them a slight lead over the Tide in the 1-seed sweepstakes. 

                                    Record     At-lg   Dance Chance     Total
Rank Team                 Conf   Curr   Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  %Odds seed prev
  1. Auburn                SEC   27-2   29-2   100.0   0.0  99.4  +0.2  100.0   1    1 
  2. Florida               SEC   25-4   26-5   100.0   0.0  88.9  -0.1  100.0   1    1 
  3. Duke                  ACC   26-3   28-3   100.0   0.0  85.6  +3.0  100.0   1    1 
  4. Tennessee             SEC   24-5   26-5   100.0   0.0  59.1  +0.6  100.0   1    1 
  5. Alabama               SEC   23-6   24-7   100.0  +0.1  44.2  -2.1  100.0   2    2 
  6. Houston               B12   25-4   27-4   100.0  +0.1  17.8  +2.6  100.0   2    2 
  7. Michigan St.          B10   24-5   26-5   >99.9   0.0   2.6  +1.8  >99.9   2    2 
  8. Kentucky              SEC   19-10  20-11  >99.9   0.0   1.7  -3.9  >99.9   2    3 

That race probably is exactly as close as we have it above, and it probably is for the last 1-seed. But at this point the general feeling is that a 1-seed is Houston's to lose; in other words, swap Florida and Houston above, with Auburn and Duke 1-seed locks, the three SEC teams fighting for the remaining 2 spots. The Cougars are finally racking up some big wins that eluded them in the pre-conference season where they lost to both Auburn and Alabama; they beat Texas Tech last Monday for their 7th Quad-One win (Tennessee and Alabama have 10; Florida and Duke, 6 each; Auburn: 16!!!) Interestingly, Michigan State has 10 Quad 1 wins and no one has suggested they're in the running, and indeed we have the Spartans with a low outside chance. If they win the Big Ten tournament they'll be close but probably end up the top 2-seed. Kentucky still has a chance too, due to an abundance of huge wins offset by their 10 losses.

Auburn hosts Alabama in the last Very Big Game of the regular season Saturday; before that, Alabama hosts Florida. The Tide still have a chance to park themselves in the 1-seed slot prior to the SEC tournament. 

Below are a few teams that made decent-sized moves last week. Texas Tech lost to Houston at home but their rebound win at Kansas pushed them up to a 3-seed. But Arizona's 84-67 loss to Iowa State dropped them 2 seeds, with Arizona State and Kansas left on the menu. In the Big Ten Maryland peaked last week at a 3-seed but losing to Michigan State at home—and barely edging past Penn State on Saturday—deflated that balloon.

                                    Record     At-lg   Dance Chance     Total
Rank Team                 Conf   Curr   Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  %Odds seed prev
 10. Texas Tech            B12   22-7   24-7   >99.9  +0.3   0.0  -0.1  >99.9   3    5 
 17. Maryland              B10   22-7   25-7   >99.9   0.0  <0.1  -1.2  >99.9   5    3 
 25. Arizona               B12   19-10  20-11   94.1  -1.9   0.0   0.0   94.2   7    5 
 26. Vanderbilt            SEC   20-9   21-10   92.5 +18.7   0.0   0.0   92.5   7    9 
 32. Georgia               SEC   18-11  20-11   78.9 +31.2   0.0   0.0   79.0   8      

The two biggest movers this week were in the SEC, as if that league needed more good fortune. Vanderbilt all but locked up their appearance with wins over Texas A&M and Missouri, and it wasn't easy: the Commodores topped the Aggies 86-84 and needed overtime at home to dust off the Tigers. A few bad bounces and Vandy would have tumbled into the thick of the bubble; instead, they're looking sharp with Arkansas and Georgia left, then the conference tournament. Speaking of Georgia the Bulldogs leapt from below the waterline to an 8-seed, up from around 50/50 to almost 80%, due to their 88-83 win over Florida and topping Texas 83-67 on the road. They're reasonable likely to hit 20 wins this week with South Carolina in addition to Vandy left (the latter is at Georgia).

The expanded bubble: With only a few weeks left, we're now looking at an expanded bubble. Below are the teams who are above the projected waterline. Right now the cut-off point is 47 teams deep, but after conference tournament upsets it will be a few spots higher (2.74, we calculate, so call it three!) That means teams all the way up to #37 are in the Last Eight In. UC San Diego shows up a solid 10-seed in our projection but the Big West doesn't get much respect, so even at 26-4 most people have the Tritons needing to win the Big West tournament to go dancing. I think there's some leeway but they need to at least make the final. VCU is the other conference race favorite here, and in contrast we have them ranked almost exactly consensus: in, but in trouble if they lose again. Interestingly, they have one Quad-1 win to UC San Diego's 2 (but many more Quad 2).

                                    Record     At-lg   Dance Chance     Total
Rank Team                 Conf   Curr   Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  %Odds seed prev
 37. UC San Diego          BW    26-4   28-4    68.1  +3.5   0.0   0.0   73.7  10   10 
 38. Creighton             BE    20-9   22-9    67.3  -4.9   0.0   0.0   68.5  10    9 
 39. San Diego St.         MWC   20-7   22-7    62.1  +3.0   0.0   0.0   64.1  10   10 
 40. Arkansas              SEC   17-12  18-13   58.6  -9.8   0.0   0.0   58.8  10    9 
 41. VCU                   A10   24-5   26-5    58.2  +1.0   0.0   0.0   66.0  11   11 
 42. Indiana               B10   18-11  18-13   57.8 +10.6   0.0   0.0   58.1  11      
 43. Xavier                BE    19-10  21-10   55.7  +3.6   0.0   0.0   57.0  11   11p
 44. Ohio St.              B10   16-13  18-13   53.5  +1.5   0.0   0.0   54.0  11p  12p

Creighton's 83-61 loss to Xavier put the Bluejays in some possible peril but almost everyone sees them making the tournament. And it lifted the Musketeers a bit but the jury is still out; they're not "In" in the Bracket Matrix just yet, other systems are torn, and we have them at around 57%. San Diego State's name, let's face it, gives them the benefit of the doubt, and they're only team #3 in the MWC which placed six last year. Arkansas lost badly to South Carolina Saturday but Wednesday's overtime win over Texas kept them in; also, there are only 12 SEC teams now, which helps, but they have two tough games left (Vandy and Mississippi State). Indiana has made an amazing turnaround and now is favored to make the tournament. At 14-10 five games ago they had little chance; though, we showed an ample 19.3%, mostly because of the chance of winning some big games—which they did! Ohio State also holds on, and if the bubble shrinks they're really in trouble. The Buckeyes face the Hoosiers this coming Saturday.

The heart of the bubble is below. These teams are above the waterline now, but staying where they are is like not moving your towel as the tide comes in. They need to move up or risk getting wet. Boise State especially, as it's only recently that the rest of the Bracketology world starting taking note of them. Now they are the First Team Out in the Bracket Matrix, while we've had them on the bubble for some time. As we noted Mountain West contenders are in shorter supply this year which helps, but given their rank here, the Broncos need to win out and do some damage in their tournament.

                                    Record     At-lg   Dance Chance     Total
Rank Team                 Conf   Curr   Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  %Odds seed prev
 45. Boise St.             MWC   21-8   23-8    53.1  +0.6   0.0   0.0   55.0  11p  11p
 46. Baylor                B12   17-12  18-13   49.8 -10.6   0.0   0.0   50.4  12p  10 
 47. West Virginia         B12   17-12  19-12   49.2  -2.1   0.0   0.0   49.6  12p  12p

Baylor got hit hard last week with a loss at Cincinnati, and their win over Oklahoma State Saturday was pretty meaningless. West Virginia got scorched at BYU. This puts them just above a waterline that might not hold. Helping both teams is the fact that without them, the Big Twelve only has six teams which seems low in today's mega-conference world. But Cincinnati might jump ahead of them; the Baylor win helped a lot more than the (very expected) Houston loss hurt, so the Bearcats are a legit contender in the First Four Out. Drake is in the ultimate "we can get an at-large only if we don't need it" position as the Missouri Valley favorite. Also near the waterline are Colorado State (we noted how there are only three Mountain West teams in right now), North Carolina (did we mention that there are only three ACC teams too?) The Rams take on Boise State in a very important MWC bubble game Friday, and the Tar Heels can not only move into the seedings but probably seal a bid if they beat Duke Saturday. Given those low odds, they better beat Virginia Tech Tuesday.

                                    Record     At-lg   Dance Chance     Total
Rank Team                 Conf   Curr   Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  %Odds seed prev
 48. Drake                 MVC   27-3   27-3    47.6  -0.1   0.0   0.0   57.4  12   12 
 49. North Carolina        ACC   19-11  20-12   42.2  +2.7   0.0   0.0   43.5          
 50. Colorado St.          MWC   20-9   21-10   41.4  +9.3   0.0   0.0   43.2          
 51. Cincinnati            B12   17-12  19-12   39.5  +8.6   0.0   0.0   40.0          
 52. Santa Clara           WCC   20-11  20-11   38.9  -1.5   0.0   0.0   42.3          
 53. UC Irvine             BW    25-5   27-5    38.5  -1.2   0.0   0.0   45.6          
 54. Nebraska              B10   17-12  18-13   38.1 -20.8   0.0   0.0   38.4       11 
 55. Oklahoma              SEC   17-12  17-14   37.0 -12.7   0.0   0.0   37.2          
 56. Texas                 SEC   16-13  17-14   33.5 -22.8   0.0   0.0   33.9       11 

As we see an SEC and Big Ten team join the seedings, so, too do an SEC and Big Ten team leave them. Nebraska won 4 straight to look like a solid bid, but then lost 5 of 6 to sink their odds; the loss at home to Minnesota was the last straw dumping them 20%. Texas crashed almost 25% after losses at Arkansas (in OT) and Georgia; the latter, at home and by 16 points, did the damage. The Longhorns have a shot at getting two solid wins (Miss. State and Oklahoma) before the tournament though. The Sooners need to win that one themselves, and beating Missouri on Wednesday wouldn't hurt either, for their on-and-off bid chances. Above we also see Santa Clara, who hangs on in our rankings despite losing to Gonzaga 95-76 (our system just likes the Broncos for some reason; but then again, so does the NET where they are #53). And UC Irvine, the "other" Big West team, who looks to finish 27-5 and just out of the money. They are where most people put UC San Diego, I think.

Below are some teams that fell off the bubble radar last week. SMU and Wake Forest were well-positioned as the ACC needs more teams, but the Mustangs lost to Stanford Saturday and only have Syracuse and FSU left which won't impress. The Deacons lost to Virginia last week but have an opportunity vs. Duke tonight to turn things around, but on the road they have little chance (and update: they just lost). Liberty has been floating in this area all season: a 12-seed with no upward mobility. Still, their at-large odds remained respectable until they lost to Kennesaw State at home, knocking them to near single-digits, far from the bubble.

                                    Record     At-lg   Dance Chance     Total
Rank Team                 Conf   Curr   Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  %Odds seed prev
 58. SMU                   ACC   21-8   23-8    32.3 -10.8   0.0   0.0   33.5          
 59. Wake Forest           ACC   20-9   21-10   23.5 -13.5   0.0   0.0   24.2          
 66. Liberty               CUSA  23-6   25-6    11.6 -13.3   0.0   0.0   42.0  12   12 
 68. George Mason          A10   22-7   24-7     5.4 -13.3   0.0   0.0   11.4          
 69. Pittsburgh            ACC   16-13  18-13    4.7 -26.7   0.0   0.0    5.9          
 79. Oregon St.            WCC   20-11  20-11    0.2  -9.9   0.0   0.0    3.2                   

George Mason was once in good shape in the Atlantic 10, either as tournament winner or at-large contender, but two losses in their last three games have put them out of at-large contention at 5%. The Patriots fell to Duquesne Saturday, 85-68, which isn't a good sign for the conference tournament either. Pittsburgh is yet another ACC team fading when the conference needs Dance reps! But going 7-11 in an "easy" Major conference doesn't look good; the Panthers' latest losses were Georgia Tech and Louisville. And Oregon State wasn't looking great last week but they were over 10% odds; now they're near zero. That's an overall drop of 98%!! What happened? Losses to both San Francisco (at home) and St. Mary's; neither is a very bad loss, but going 20-11 in the WCC isn't going to get you near the bubble. Wait a minute, Santa Clara is 20-11 too...? Well, they beat Gonzaga once, but...so did Oregon State. And the Broncos are at 39% with the Beavers near zero? I guess our system just likes Santa Clara.